Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 14: Week 9 College Betting Preview

Transcript

Episode 14: Week 9 College Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. Boys and girls, it's your favorite time
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: of week. You download the crazy sheets, you get you
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: something cold to drink. He nestle up and get ready
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: talks some football. I bark and I'm here in the
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: podcasting studio and Scotty my man won't be able to join.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: Us this week.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Actually gonna work, man, believe it or not. We got
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: some day jobs. If you're gonna hit.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Him up on Twitter, just put hashtag work sucks.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: And send that right to Scott so he knows you're
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: thinking about him. Season's rolling, brother for getting right here.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: At the end of October, things are starting to come
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: together as much as they're starting to fall apart. If
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: we saw Texas Tech go on the road last week
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: with the backup quarter after and proved that they are
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: not invincible, they come back home this week. They played
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma State and Lubbock. Top of the food chain
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: starting to move around a little bit. We're gonna have
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: some big SEC matchups that I'm pretty excited about. Since
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Scott and I both aren't here to do the show,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'll probably just run through some of the picks give
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: you some ideas of what we're looking at. This weekend. Obviously,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: make our plays and we'll go from there. That being started,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: let's get started. On Friday night, North Texas is traveling
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: to Charlotte. North Texas is six and one against the number,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: five and two against the spread. Charlotte's just the opposite,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: one and six against the straight up in two and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: five against the number.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: This Charlotte team is a complete rebuild.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Tim Alvins, the old coach at Ohio, took this program
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: over to start the season. Had connections with that guy,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: actually made and it's a rebuild project. This North Texas
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: team is really solid. I think we're they're gonna miss
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: the play on this and you've seen the line move
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit away from us or a little bit
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: towards where we want to go. We're gonna take minus
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: twenty five and a half. Most people are just gonna
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: remember them getting pants by South Florida, but it really
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: wasn't until the second half until that one started to
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: stretch out. But this North Texas defense is really solid.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna overpower this Charlotte team. And frankly,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: North Texas is still in the running to play for
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the conference championship there, but they got to keep a
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: clean sheet all the way out. So let's get start
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: on Friday night, six o'clock, North Texas minus twenty five
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and a half. That being said, let's stay on Friday night,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: let's head out west. We're gonna head up to Renow, Nevada,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: where Boise State's gonna be rolling in town to play
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the University of Divide Reno. That's wolfpack too words that
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: you'll be playing in this one here. This DIVIDA team
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: is bad, really bad in this Boise State team. You know,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: we've seen him lose twice. We only seen him watching
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: play South Florida and lose. We saw him play Notre
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Dame and Lowse last week we were actually on UNLV.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: UNLV couldn't get the cover.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: But this Boise State team is six and one against
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the number, and they are proven to be a wagon.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: They have been in the playoffs.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: They understand that there is some sex appeal to get
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: you in there, and so they want to cover, and
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: they want to cover by margin. I don't think this
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Nevada team's got the explosiveness to keep up with them.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I look for Boise State to overpower this team. Lay
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the twenty one let's get it started on a Friday night,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: moving over to Saturday. A couple of games that you're
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: gonna like in this spot here. This is a good
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: one down in Houston, Yukon playing Rice. What you want
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: to look for in this one is a flat ten
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: if you can find it with Yukon over the Rice isls.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Rice is starting to bang up.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Some injuries, really struggling to move the ball, and defensively
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: there's not much to it. This Yukon team was pretty
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: explosive down moving the ball down field. You got Pagano
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks absolutely rolling. I like what you're gonna get here.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: We've been on Yukon a couple of times this season.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we can keep it going. Lay it
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: with Yukon next game. I like in this one, Baylor
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: gets you a three and a half. Why you can
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: traveling up to Cincinnati, Cincinnati six and one. They've kind
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: of got an inside track on possibly making it to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the Big Twelve Championship, and they're five and two against
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the number team most people haven't paid attention to since
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: their opening week lost to Nebraska when they played up
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: in Kansas City. But I think Baylor's got the mustard
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: here over under in this one sixty six and a half.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I need to look at the weather, but it looks
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: like it's gonna be clear.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Bit crisp.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: But I was thinking Baylor getting three and a half.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a classic shootout. Whoever gets the
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: ball last wins. Now that being said, Baylor is one
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: in six against the number, so, but I would get
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: a three and a half and sprinkle a little bit
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: on that money line. Baylor's defense is atrocious. I think
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: they'll give up some points. I'm probably gonna lean to
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the over end this one as well, but I think
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: the Baylor Bears actually could pull the upset at Cincinnati
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: this week. Cincinnati hasn't seen an offense. It's gonna be
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: able to move the ball like they can. Baylor can't run,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: but that's okay because Cincinnati's defense isn't set up to
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: protect against the pass. I look for Baylor to put
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: up some big numbers here. Last team with the ball wins.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Give me the Baylor Bears rolling through the sheet that
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: we've got here. Indiana will be at home playing UCLA.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Indiana's seven and oh straight up, they're four and three
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: against the number. Man this board is starting to look
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: really chalky to me, but I would lay it with
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Indiana here.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: They get it.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I know they're number two in the country. This team's
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a bully that I like. Where UCLA has improved, has
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: upset some teams, has won. If you've gone back and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: you've watched their three wins, it's all built on chunk
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: explosive plays. In the last three weeks, they've had more
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: of them than they've had in the last year and
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a half combined when Deshan Foster was there. I'll give
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: you a little nugget. Though Indiana has only allowed fifteen
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: plays all season to go for over ten yards, they
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: haven't given up the explode if plays here, I think
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: they play bully ball with this UCLA team, I don't
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: think they're able to pull the rabbit out of the hat.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: You're also experiencing the two time zone travel with UCLA
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: having to come back across the country in this spot. Here,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: lay it with Indiana minus twenty five and a half.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Coming out.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Let's look at the State of Michigan now Saturday night,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Michigan State plus fourteen and a half against this Michigan team.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Where I am with this and Scott's a big advocate
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: of this Michigan State team here is I just don't
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: know that Michigan can stretch out the margin here. And
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you're getting two touchdowns and a hook, and so definitely
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the hook's gonna probably be the difference in this one.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: This is a rivalry game. Michigan State's gonna get up
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: for the rivalry game. I'm of the opinion when you
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: get into these you can absolutely throw everything else out
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the window. I would take sparty in this one that
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: you've got here. Michigan State's going to ground and pound,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: ground and pound. Michigan State's defense can't held around for this,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: but they're not going to be able to stretch it
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: out get margin in this one, I don't think, And
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: so I would lean. And that's on the same thing
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: as this one. Michigan State plus fourteen and a half
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: will be your next play North Carolina Virginia if you
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: can get a flight ten late Virginia. North Carolina's terrible.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Moving on down the board just a little bit. Scott's
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: a big fan of Mississippi State this week as they
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: get ready to match up in this SEC matchup when
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: they've got the University of Texas coming to town, and
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I don't blame.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Him on this one.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I like this play a lot. Both he and I
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: have had this one circled. I would try to find
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: you a seven. If you've got to buy up to it,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: maybe sit and let this it's gonna happen. The reason
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: being is this is a weird spot for Texas. They
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: probably should have lost week last week to Kentucky. I
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: know that the defense for Texas is solid, and the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: defense for Mississippi State it's a little spotty. They're getting
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: some help back. It's a little bit plucky. But at
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the same time, I like this Mississippi State team. This
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: will be a big game for them to get up for.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: They'll be at home. It's another road game. This is
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: four weeks in a row that Texas has played, and
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: not only that, they've been away from home three of
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: those weeks. So they've been in Dallas, they've been in Kentucky,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: and they've been here. And so let's lay it with
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Mississippi or let's take it with Mississippi State. Try to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: get you a seven to a seven and a half.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be a solid play that you
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: can get in from there. Arkansas Auburn, Arkansas's laying two
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: and a half. A lot of people are probably scratching
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: their head. I think Auburn's done. Jackson Arnold hasn't proved
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna be the guy that they thought he was.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Hence the fact that they're three and four and two
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: and five against the number Arkansas. With Bobby Patrino, they're
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: not giving up.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: They still have some fight in this roster. I think
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: they're gonna put a play together on this one. This
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: would be a big win for this program. Patrino is
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: still petitioning, trying to get this job, and so lay
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: it with Arkansas minus two and a half in this
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: game plus. I like when this game kicks off, it's
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: an early twelve to forty five kickoff in Arkansas. I
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: think I don't think Auburn's interested at this point. I
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: really do think this team is just kind of moving
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: on and getting it done. Moving on Kansas State versus
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Kansas US. Scott's gonna come back at you here, and
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: he likes Kansas State getting plus three and a half.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I agree with him in this one. I think it's
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: a good spot for Kansas State to get it right.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: They've struggled a little bit, but it seems like they've
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: got everything on the rails moving forward here. And so
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: give us Kansas State plus the two and a half
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: or plus three and a half in that game, a
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: couple other games that we've got in this spot. Ohio
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half wilbe your MAC play of
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: the week. I think Ohio, we now probably concluded, is
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the best team in the MAC. Let's not be scared.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Let's lay the number with Ohio in this one. LSU
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: at home getting two and a half against Texas A
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and M. Everything in my gut tells me that I
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: should be taking Texas A and M in this spot.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: But if you go look at Texas A and M,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: they should have lost that game at Notre Dame. They
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: played with their food in that game against Auburn. Are
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: they good?
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: But this defense for LSU is still suffocating. It's only
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: giving up fourteen points a game. I'm not sure what
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: we is back for this one or not. It's nighttime,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: it's death Valley.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: It's hard to win there.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Brian Kelly's like nineteen and I think he's ten or
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: eleven and one at night in Tiger Stadium.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: They're gonna get up for the Aggie game.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: This is the game LSU has to win if they
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: want to keep this thing on the rails to get
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to the College Football Playoff.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Give me LSU.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Plus two and a half, but I'm gonna try to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: find me at three and buy the hook and get
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: all the way back up to it. Next game Missouri
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: against Vanderbilt. Missouri's traveling in here. They're getting two and
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a half against Vandy. I'm gonna try to find a three.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take Missouri in this game. I love Diego Pavia.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: He's my Heisman ticket winner. You can say whatever you
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: want to to bet against him. I don't think this
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a difficult environment for them to roll into.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Missouri wants to run the ball. They're gonna be able
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: to pound the rock on this team. They got better,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: one of the best rushing offenses in the country. I
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: think Vanderbilt is gonna struggle with the outside zone, and
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: so I will go ahead and take the two and
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: a half, hoping to get a three with Missouri.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Last play. I want to get to you on this
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: one coming through here. A couple last couple twoes. We
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: got from here.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Iowa State at home against BYU. This is gonna be
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: the stinky dog of the week. Everybody's gonna be on
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: wys BYU getting points. They're the rank Iowa State's not.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's been banged up. Where they're banged up is
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: in the secondary. Where they're not banged up is in
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: their run defense. BYU is a running team. I think
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: they're gonna pound it all game long. I think Iowa
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: State it plays into them. They'll get up for this game.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Look for Iowa State to pull what most people think
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: it's an upset, but they're actually favored. Let's lay two
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: and a half with Iowa State next one. Here's a
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: stinky one. Alabama's traveling out to South Cackilaca to play Carolina.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Give me Carolina plus eleven and a half. This is
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: a terrible spot for Bama. This is their fifth game
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: in a row, going into a bye week, They're on
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the road. It's a sleeper spot for these guys rolling
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: in here. And the one thing I like about this
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: more than any thing is the fact that Alabama has
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: not shown that they can actually exhibit a whole lot
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: of pressure from the defensive line. They don't have a
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: lot of sacks on the season, and so when you've
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: got Lenor back there, I think he's gonna see the field.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: This is a big time game. This team has not
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: given up. I know they're three and four, they're performing
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: below expectations. Dylan Stewart looks to be back, so they're
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit healthier. Give me South Carolina plus
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. I don't think they've got enough
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: upset to pull the upset there, but I think they
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: definitely get it done and cover. Looking at the excelle
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, I would look for
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a team total with Texas Tech in this one line's
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: thirty six and a half.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Overrun hundred fifty four.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: If I can find a forty one, I'll probably lay
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: up with Texas Tech. And that's all we got this week.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Man. I will come back at you next week.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: We'll have Scott and be here and we'll put everything
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: back together, be back like we normally will. Folks hit
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Scott up on Twitter, tell him how bad it sucks
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: to work and how much you miss him. Thank you
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: for the downloads, thank you for the reviews and everything
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: else that you got and I promise next week you
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: won't just have to sit here and listen to my
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: dumbass talk.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Y'all, have a great week, and let's win a few
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: bucks