Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 21 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 21 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live, and I'm trying to figure out why I'm out of focus.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Why am I out of focus?
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: That's a bit weird, isn't it?
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Anyway, you have to deal with me.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Take me fuzzy today.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Winston's back there down here.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Even he's not fuzzy.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: My intention for the next 10, 15 minutes or so is to explain to you the 10 things that really matter today, other than that stuff.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: And we've got some really massive headline news about witching and all that kind of stuff happening.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We've got the tariffs, we've got good news, we've got bad news, but ultimately, I think we're in a place where we have a tremendous opportunity.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: And if you want to understand what that tremendous opportunity is, I put a little poll out here which says what are you most worried about?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: And two thirds of you have answered missing the next rally.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Then I want to give you how not to miss the next rally here in the next couple of minutes.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: If that sounds like something you want to learn you want to be part of, like a rally in the chat.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I don't know why am I blurry?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Weird, isn't it?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Backgrounds and focus.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I know it's really odd.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Hang on one second.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Let me press the focus button.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Let's put that over the top.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That might work.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Does that work?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: No, still blurry, really odd.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Really blurry.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Now, right, this is funny.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: All right, I know, here we are.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: We're black, look, look, look, look, I'm no longer fuzzy.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: That's good, isn't it?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Let me get straight into it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: If I'm sharp for you as well, now, then, or you can also write sharp in the chat and I'll see that I'm crystal clear on your side as well.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So everyone's talking about this.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: There's all these headlines.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: People are making these videos on something called triple witching, and nobody really seems to know what that means.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Judging by how they write the headlines, triple witching is something that they're talking about.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: What's going on with the pen here today?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Everything's a bit fuzzy today, isn't it?
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Well, we have a shitload of options expiring today.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Like a lot, like a couple of trillion.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: 4.7 trillion Seems like a lot, doesn't it?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Winston Cam, I bought it on, seriously, say many of you wrote yesterday's Winston Cam.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: You'd much rather see this guy down there.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Where is he Down here?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: We had a beautiful hike today, which is why he's quite sleepy today, sleeping very peacefully back there.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: But back to this.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean what everyone else is telling you what it means and I'm an options trader.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I've got four retired market makers on my team.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: We actually know what this means and it means that the market is going to move more.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: That's what it means.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: You don't know the direction.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: It doesn't tell you that.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Now, what it does tell you the options market is we are very likely to stay above 5,600, because that's where the support sits, that's where the market makes it.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Let me get a green pen here and you can look this up in Trade Vision.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: That's green support on the S&P 5,600.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: We're very likely to stay above that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Now, should we drop below it, what will then happen?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Well, you can also look that up.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: We will drop to.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Where is it there?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: It is there, she is.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Do you see what I just did there, that you see that little red middle finger there that comes from our friends at JP and Morgan you know biggest sort of bank out there and that's their trade.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: And you can see that trade.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: It's enormous.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: It's huge.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Some might say 41,000 options on the S&P, which is a lot of money.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: I did the calculation on that the other day, didn't I?
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So the S&P is worth 6,000, 80, what is it?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: 6,000, 5,000, what is it?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: 5,600, something right?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: 5,660 right now, every option is 101 of those contracts and they have 41,000 of those open.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of money, right?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So that's a JP Morgan size trade.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So if we do drop below 5,600, which is unlikely then we would end up here at 5,565, because that's where JP Morgan sits and they basically move the market.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So have you written that down?
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Have you taken a screenshot of that?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I'd recommend you take screenshots and notes of some of the stuff I put out there for you, because my plan is to hit you with lots of facts and lots of good stuff so that you really know what the heck's going on out.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: There Sounds still funky.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping to get a sound guy in here on Monday.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: He will hopefully fix that for good.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So have you looked at this?
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I'll write and tell me if this chart makes some sense to you.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Just write a number one if the chart makes some sense to you and I'll tell you what I think it means.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So the Magnificent Seven, the largest seven stocks their valuation has dropped significantly to now 25 times PE.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So if I drew a straight line across here.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Then you could see we're at the level we were at in 2020 and 2019 and 2018 and 2017.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: It's kind of weird, right, that we haven't really gone up in terms of valuations for these stocks.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So there is, they're on sale.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: That's one way of looking at it.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Now you could think, oh, it might go lower.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It might go lower, but they have gone down tremendously from evaluation previously of about 32 times or 33 times.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: So if you are happy to buy it at 33 times profits, why wouldn't you buy it at 25 times profits?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Just rhetorical question out there.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Let me know why you wouldn't.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So just from a valuation valuation point of view, we're in a much healthier position now than we were in previously.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Tesla is down for the ninth week in a row because um, numbnuts keep selling it ninth week in a row.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: That'll be the longest sell ever for tesla.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So it's the longest sell of ever, which is pretty extraordinary because it's not really about fundamentals, it's not really about sales numbers.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Elon put out some calls yesterday which will get the Tesla crowd excited, but the Tesla haters obviously won't be moved.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So why is the only color always blue?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I know, rodney, I'm with you on that one.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Mike is tripping again.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that, my friends, we will hopefully have that fixed by Monday.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So, when do you buy the dip?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Do you buy it here or do you buy it earlier?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Do you buy it later, like?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Do you not buy the dip?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Like?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Isn't that the big question, right?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: So I can give you the answer on Tesla.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: But ultimately that isn't going to help you very much, because what you actually need are the rules and confidence and conviction in exactly when to buy.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: And I'm telling you, right now it's too early.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: It's too early.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: We don't want to buy this yet, and the simple explanation for that is and I'll show you how to get the more detailed explanation as well that yellow line there that I'm drawing next to in parallel.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: That is the 50-day moving average.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: When that slopes down like that, bad things happen.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Bad things happen to good stocks sometimes, and you can have conviction.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: You can have all of this, but ultimately, if you want to make money and not be emotional about your investing, well, you'll make a lot more money.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn those rules a link down below it's called felix friends at all slash, get free and I'll teach you those exact rules.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Like what are the rules?
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Well, the first thing is when to buy so you have a very, very high likelihood of a massive rally and then, second, when and how to sell.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Before buying, you become a bag holder.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by that?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you didn't sell up here, right Up there, or up here or even up here, you're now a bag holder, so your money is like locked into something that isn't making you any money.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Your money could instead be in something that's actually making money.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Right, that's the thing it's about managing your money.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Rather than just buy and hold till death, do us part, and that works very well.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: If you want to get some cool indicators or break out some of that stuff as well, you can.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, on Tesla, for example, we've done quite nicely here.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: We're beating buy and hold by about 97%.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So how do you get access to that?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: You go to tradevisioncom and you get yourself the indicators that actually work and data that the banks are jealous of, because that's our intention.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Crystal Ball would help.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: It would, but you don't need it.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I mean that would be really nice.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I keep getting one, but Winston keeps eating it.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Where is Winston?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Down there, winston, why do you keep eating all the crystal balls?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: He actually eats all balls.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I have a big massage ball it's like this big $150 massage ball, and he's walking around with it.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I'm like dude, there's so many balls, why that one?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: And he's like I liked it, it's nice and heavy.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: And then he dropped it on my foot, which is brilliant, all right.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So let me give you some more good news, then, and I mean, tell me who's going to learn the rules.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Who's actually going to learn the rules, or do you just think, oh, the rules can't possibly work because you've been indoctrinated by people who want your commissions?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Who's going to learn the rules?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Just put a hand up or put a one in the chat if you're going to learn the rules Now, while you do that and let me know if you're going to learn or if you're just going to procrastinate and just hope that somehow luck will do it for you it went Then let me show you this Retail retail, that's you.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: It's been very, very good to us.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: They've been buying almost every single day.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So the blue bars are retail buying and, um, and that's good.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Dave says rules are awesome, jonathan tate and rasmus and tattooed trekker winston carl is buying uh, ruling, rather, gen x is ruling, don and carbon and w and uh, matt and charlie, uh, liam, I'm british, I love rules.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, loads of you guys are learning rules, which is amazing.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, keep keep doing that.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: That's how you get better.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: So the blue bars are basically you buying because you are retail.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I'm retail too.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Winston is retail too, so that's good right.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: So the dip buyers are alive, they're well, they're making up, they're really supporting this market.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Who else is buying Computers?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Computers are our friends.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Honest, these are algo funds, also known as CTA funds, and they had massively sold off here and now they're coming back.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: And that's what I told you, right?
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So I told you they do and they're doing exactly that.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So, as long as the market stays sort of flat to slightly positive, they're going to keep buying about $35 billion or something like that Quite a lot of money.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Mike says I know the rules from their work Brilliant.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: My friend ANG wants to go long and short with stop losses.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Keep the one that wins.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: You would equally lose on the one that you are.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: You'd lose one and you'd win one and they'd be the same basically.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So you wouldn't really win much from that, you would just lose the same amount on one that you'd buy on the other one.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really win much from that.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: You would just lose the same amount of one that you buy on the other one.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really take you anywhere.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So robots are buying.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Indeed, now Gundlach or Gundlach as the Germans would say is sort of a bond king, jeffrey Gundlach, and he's saying rate cuts are coming in June or July, and it just means rate cuts are coming closer.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of people out there now who are expecting a rate cut in June, and I think it's quite possible and it's going to be good, it's going to be beautiful, it's going to be big, it's going to be shiny, it's going to be the best rate cut we've ever seen.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: I've been watching too many Trump clips, right.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So that's good.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: And why is that good?
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Well, a 1% cut.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: You're not going to get 1% initially.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: What does it do to your, say, your growth stocks?
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Say you have an ARK sort of type portfolio, all of that stuff.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: It'll probably give you about a 9% boost for your stocks, your growth stocks.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: It's pretty good, right?
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So the Fed has the power to make you some money.