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Your Gambling Guide to the Sweet 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight seventh seven s t o P in Louisiana
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  Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight nine or visit
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  Speaker 1: one eight Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the Favorites the Podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: We are heading into the Sweet sixteen of Marge Madness.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We are getting through the tournament a glorious, glorious tournament,
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  Speaker 1: ratings up, upsets happening, blue Bloods, advancing coach k sneaking
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: in beating time is. It's been a phenomenal tournament. We're
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: gonna break it all down with b J Cunningham and
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: with Stucky, who have been covering it all for the
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Action Network, two of our college basketball Action Network analysts
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and experts. Before we get there, let me bring in
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: my co host, might be Ff, my companion Mike and
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Padre professional Better Simon Hunter. Chad, Buddy, I gotta do
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: a little house get dude. We can't even get forty
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: eight hours between tapings of the show without something ridiculous
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: happening in the NFL. Yesterday, Tyreek Hill getting traded from
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs to the Dolphins. What do you think, Yeah, Madness,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's hilarious that they moved from
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: seventy to one to thirty five to one to win
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Like that's one of the more more
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: bizarre movements I've ever seen. But uh, I gotta do
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: some housekeeping on I in fact did make an Instagram
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: at Simon Hunter NFL, and people took a joke the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: wrong way. If I tweet on Twitter, unless I'm giving
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: out picks, I'm ba castinger. I'm joking. Twitter is a
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: hellish place. It's a trolling place, and I will usually
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: joke on there. I do not have a publicist. Chad
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: is my publicist. I don't actually have a publicist. Chad
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: said that I need to do more stuff for social media,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: and I, you know, I can't you TikTok yet. I
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: mean maybe maybe I'm dipping my toes though with Instagram.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So um, I'm eventually started doing live stuff. I know
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: there's a ton of NFL stuff going on. We'll figure
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: something out, but um, yeah, that is my profile. That
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  Speaker 1: is real. I do have an Instagram account now, and
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I wasn't really hacked. I did actually pick Ukon to
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: win it all. People people thought I really did get hacked.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I didn't get hacked. Uh, I did pick UKN. I
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  Speaker 1: think that's back to back years now. The team I
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: picked to win it all got knocked out on the
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: first Thursday games. So yeah, I'm I'm I'm really good
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: at college basketball. Relieves you have the burden of having
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: to be stressed. Like my friends Stucky and b J.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I'm following you now, Simon Hunter NFL on Instagram. I
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  Speaker 1: just did it while you were talking. I'm excited about that. Um,
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  Speaker 1: all right, Stucky in b J Uh, Stucky, I want
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  Speaker 1: to start with you the very first question. I've had
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  Speaker 1: a lot of upsets. Um, if you're reseating the turnament
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  Speaker 1: right now, West, East, South, Midwest, who are your top
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  Speaker 1: two seeds in each region? Um, well, we're not gonna
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  Speaker 1: look at I've gotta look at the regions. But by
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  Speaker 1: the way, thanks for having me. Overall, I'll pull up
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  Speaker 1: the Bractes sect. But overall, if I would received the
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  Speaker 1: entire tournament, one seeds of the Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston and Kansas,
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  Speaker 1: two seeds Villanova Perdue, Duke in u c l A.
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  Speaker 1: Three seeds Texas Tech in the two and three are
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  Speaker 1: very similar. I mean I have Duke a little ahead
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  Speaker 1: of Texas Tech. But the margin is very, very slim.
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  Speaker 1: But Texas Tech could be the first number three, then
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Arkansas, Michigan. Just to show you U c
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  Speaker 1: l A is my last number two. My third number
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  Speaker 1: three is North Counta. They played each other. The margin
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  Speaker 1: there is less than a point on a neutral court,
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  Speaker 1: and the four seeds will be Providence and then A.
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  Speaker 1: You know, Miami. I was staying in a big drop
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  Speaker 1: off to St. Peter's, which would be the sixteenth seed.
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  Speaker 1: So if that was the case, we see the tournament,
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  Speaker 1: I mean some some conference tournaments to this, you would
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  Speaker 1: have Gonzaga playing St. Peter's. The only matchups that would
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  Speaker 1: still hold would be Kansas versus Providence, in Villanova versus Michigan.
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  Speaker 1: And if we did recede, interestingly enough, we'd have four
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  Speaker 1: days of talking Duke Carolina because that would be the matchup.
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  Speaker 1: Based on my power ratings, that would have been amazing.
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  Speaker 1: Providence is a fascinating team and b J, I want
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  Speaker 1: to get your take on this also in the receding
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  Speaker 1: in a second look, it's one of those teams that
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people thought would get knocked out in
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  Speaker 1: the first round, thought they might have been overseated. Their
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  Speaker 1: metrics were terrible, analytics were terrible, and yet here they
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  Speaker 1: are surprising everybody and breaking through into the Sweet sixteen.
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  Speaker 1: B J. I don't think you like Providence when the
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  Speaker 1: tournament began, not at all. No. I I think I
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  Speaker 1: said it on BBC a long time ago. But there's
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  Speaker 1: just something paganistic going on with Providence this year that
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  Speaker 1: I just cannot put my finger on. Analytically. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: if you look at shock quality, they should have lost.
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  Speaker 1: Actually they're in the last two games, even though they
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  Speaker 1: beat Richmond by what was it, twenty eight points, they actually,
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  Speaker 1: based on the quality of shots, they should have lost
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  Speaker 1: by two points. So I don't really know what's going
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  Speaker 1: on with them, Chad. I can't figure them out analytically.
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  Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense. So an analytics guy like me,
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  Speaker 1: I've just kind of thrown my hands up and said,
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  Speaker 1: you know what, they'll probably beat Kansas by twenty in
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  Speaker 1: this next round, but you know what, they're on a
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  Speaker 1: historic run, and you know what, keep riding that lucky
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  Speaker 1: rabbits foot all the way to the title. Alright, So
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  Speaker 1: Gonzaga number one seeder is stuck in that Arizona also
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  Speaker 1: number one seed. I do agree with Stucky that Houston
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  Speaker 1: should also if we reseed, it should be a one seed,
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  Speaker 1: and then Kansas as a two seed. I'm gonna disagree
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  Speaker 1: a little bit on stuff. I know there's the margin
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  Speaker 1: fair is a little bit. It's very close. I have
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech as a two seed along with Perdue Villanova
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  Speaker 1: in u c. L A. And then three seeds Duke
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Michigan in Arkansas, and then I agree with
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  Speaker 1: him on the four seeds. I would stay at Miami,
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  Speaker 1: Providence and St. Peter's as four seeds. So the Houston
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  Speaker 1: Arizona game is gonna be absolutely fascinating for two teams
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  Speaker 1: that really probably should be. Like Stuck, he's already said
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  Speaker 1: one seeds. But yeah, if I had to receive the tournament,
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  Speaker 1: I think gonzag in Arizona are pretty much in a
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  Speaker 1: class as their own going forward in the tournament. Well, look,
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  Speaker 1: we got gonzag In Arizona playing tonight. We got four
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  Speaker 1: more games tomorrow night. This is Thursday afternoon. We're recording this.
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas Gonzaga is the first game on CBS in our
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  Speaker 1: night of doubleheaders. Here they are nine and a half
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  Speaker 1: point favorites against Arkansas BJ. You first, a lot of
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  Speaker 1: problems for Arkansas on this matchup, and that's why you
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  Speaker 1: see them as you know, such big underdogs like first off,
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  Speaker 1: Garden Gonzaga number one team in the country at two
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  Speaker 1: point field goal percential lout in philgal percentagel out at
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  Speaker 1: the rim Withdrew Timmy and Ched Holmgren. Arkansas is a
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  Speaker 1: terrible shooting team two or thirty seventh and effective filial
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  Speaker 1: percentage and side the top three hundred three point field
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  Speaker 1: a percentage. So you know, the Hogs attacked the rim
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  Speaker 1: at a very high rate. Uh, and it's not really
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  Speaker 1: gonna work in this type of matchup. And if you
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  Speaker 1: look back to their schedule, you know the one team
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  Speaker 1: they played that has you know, size similar to Gonzaga
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  Speaker 1: down well was Auburn and obviously they won that game
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  Speaker 1: against Jabari Smith and Walker Kesler, but uh, they weren't
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  Speaker 1: that effective at the rim, only around point nine points
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  Speaker 1: per possession at the room, which is actually really bad. Really,
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  Speaker 1: the only chance Arkansas has in this game is for
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  Speaker 1: it to be played in transition, similar to what Memphis did.
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  Speaker 1: They aren't really effective in the half court or in
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  Speaker 1: transition their own hundred fiftie in both, but Gonzaga is
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  Speaker 1: outside the top one fifty in transition defense and their
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  Speaker 1: fourth and half court defense. So Memphis was able to
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  Speaker 1: put up over one point one points per possession against Gonzagas.
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  Speaker 1: So the over this game, funny enough, is basically set
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  Speaker 1: exactly at what the Memphis Gonzaga game was. So uh
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  Speaker 1: for me, I am really looking at the total here,
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  Speaker 1: over one fifty four and a half. I know it's
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  Speaker 1: it's it's high, but I mean, Arkansas really their only
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  Speaker 1: chance in this game is they gotta play it up
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  Speaker 1: and down. That's what Gonzaga absolutely loves to do, and
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  Speaker 1: they'll do that happily the entire game. So uh, And Gonzaga, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: you know, you look at their metrics number one team
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  Speaker 1: and two point filcal percentage and you know, I could
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  Speaker 1: go through it all, but basically the best offense in
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  Speaker 1: college basketball. So I'm leaning towards over a hundred fifty
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  Speaker 1: four and a half points. As far as the spread
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  Speaker 1: is concerned, I think the number is about right, but
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: just a lot of advantages for Gonzaga here against Arkansas. Stuck. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I have no official play here this would be. This
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: is probably a really good game if you want to
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  Speaker 1: get in live. Both teams want to play up and down.
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas is really streaky. Gonzaga goes on big runs. So
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for you know, if you like I
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: kind of like Arkansas, I kind of like Gonzaga, it's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a good chance you might be able to get a
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: better number live. Arkansas also been known to come out
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: and start slow, so you might get a better number
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  Speaker 1: on them, more so than Gonzaga. But it's not a
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: great matchup of Arkansas. Arkansas wants to get to the line.
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  Speaker 1: That's really where they live. Gonzaga doesn't really fath you know,
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas wants to pressure you. It's it doesn't turn it over.
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  Speaker 1: And what they did against Memphis and Georgia State, two
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: teams that do pressure you, they only turned that over
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  Speaker 1: seven times in each game. I thought that was really
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: telling for this particular matchup. You know, Arkansas wants to
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: get on the offensive glass. Nzaga is great on the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: defensive class So unless j D Note Arkansas's guard who's
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: just very up and down, he can get into foul trouble.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Unless he's a huge day, he's gotta go for like
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: or thirty. Here. This is a good Zaga win and
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: probably a good Zagga covered, but the line is pretty sharp.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I think that if you want to bet this, maybe
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: look for an opportunity live. But it's just not the
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: best matchup for Arkansas. This is interesting. This is the
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  Speaker 1: most bet on game in the Action app right now
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  Speaker 1: and as twelve k more bets on it than the
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Duke Texas Tech, which, obviously I'm a Duke kants my
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: favorite game. So next up one the first one. Everyone
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: you you look on Thursday at the first round of
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the tournament Friday, the first game is always the most
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: bet Everyone just can't wait and they'll just stay half
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: the beat that first game that starts. Love it? Um
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the Michigan Nova. The next game Big ten versus Big
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: East Michigan plus five? Is that? Is that too many
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: points for this Michigan team? What do you think? Stuff now?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I think that I actually I make it a little
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: bit higher. Um. I leaned towards the Villanova here. I
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: might look to get him better number live. There's look,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Villanova runs pick and roll with Colin Gillespie. Justin Moore
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: as at a top fifteen rate nationally. They do it
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: as well as anybody. And that's where Michigan struggles there
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: in like the thirteenth percentile first synergy that's really bad
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: covering pick and roll. So I think their guards could
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: be exposed here. Hunter Dickinson does have a big advantage
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: in the post on the other end, but I assumed
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Jay Right will come up with a good game plan
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: to contain him, or just say look at yours. We
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: won't let everyone else beat us from three. So you know,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: it's the fairly sharp line actually with lean Villanova. The
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind here is that if this
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: game was close late, Villanova's leading Villanova probably the best
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: freethrow shooting deven the country, maybe of all time. Mean
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the final few minutes of a game, they have a
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: couple of guards who are just nine, who do not miss,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: who do not even hit the rim. So you know,
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  Speaker 1: Villanova's up two to three to four late in Michigan
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  Speaker 1: as the foul that's gonna go to six, and then
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: in Michigan mrs is all the sudden that's at eight
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: and that could end up swinging this. So I think
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Villanova gets it done. But fascinating matchup because I think
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the Nova pick and Roll was gonna have a huge
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: advantage in addition to their guards, you know, Gillespie and
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: company backing down the smaller Michigan guards. I think that
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: when they invert their offense, they can have success there.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So I would lean Villanova, but line is pretty sharp.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Might look for it live the free throws late, might
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: end up swinging this one. Yeah, I tend to agree.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I do lean towards Villanova. I actually kind of like
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the under in this matchup. I mean, I think it's
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: gonna you're gonna see a very similar game to the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Ohio State Villanova game, where Villanova is just gonna try
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to slow this game down to their snails pace. Um,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: it's basically be played in the half court and to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: echo off of stuckies, you know, point about Hunter Dickinson.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: You know, Villanova obviously they don't have a height to
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: deal with them. And I mean they tell us guys
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: six ft eight. But against Ohio State was a top
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: five frequency team turns a post ups. They only allowed
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: eight points on four team post upsets. Uh. And they're
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: actually in the Big East. They've faced five teams who
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: are in the top forty in terms of average heights,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: so it's not like they're not used to playing this
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: type of height. And they're also the top thirty team
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: in terms of points for possession allowed at the rim.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: So I don't think that Dickinson is going to be
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: as dominant as everybody thinks. J writes a great schemer
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: like Stuck. He already said to hook Hm up with
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: a good game plan. I think about Villanova. You know, obviously,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: like study said, they have the great advantage in pick
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and roll. But they're obviously a high frequency three point
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: shooting team. But what's weird about Villanova's They don't get
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: a lot of open three pointers. They're three and thirty
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: second in open three point rate and Michigan's fourth in
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the country and allowing open three pointers, So a lot
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: of Nova shots. I don't think you're gonna be the
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: highest quality. So I actually do like the under a
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: hundred thirty five and a half points. I think Villanovo slow,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: is paced down, keep it in the half court, and
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: was both defenses having some nice advantages. I think that
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: it will let itself to a low scoring, fair way
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: fast under under scare me right now in it with
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a team like Villanova because of what Stuck He said
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: that you get into the last couple of minutes and
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: it's playing at a pace that is so decidedly under
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: and then Michigan is behind and has to foul constantly,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: and Nova just piles it on with with the free
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: throws and you see it slipping away. The last two
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: games of the night Texas Tech Duke Houston Arizona. Let's
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: start with Texas Tech and Duke. Texas Tech is a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: one point favorite. Both games are aligned really really close.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: B J. We've talked about Duke. Every game is a
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: celebration because it's potentially Coach K's last game. If I
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: spend every waking moment trying to just beat you, eventually
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: that becomes a shallow life. That can't be what motivates me.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Even when Duke was losing to Michigan State, when they
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: lost that lead, I still didn't believe Duke was going
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: to lose that game. This team, they can look amazing
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: and then they can look like what they are, which
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: is a bunch of really talent to freshmen and we're
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: going to take off for the NBA. Well, it's funny
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: about this match. If I saw on Twitter that I
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: think it's a high the biggest discrepancy in terms of
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: average age in a starting five and say term and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: matchup effort. I think Duke is around like eighteen and
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: a half years old, in Texas Tech is like twenty
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: three and a half because they have a bunch of
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: you know, grad transfers. So not that that plays too
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: much in the handicap. I just thought it was kind
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: of funny. Duke. Obviously they love to get out and
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: run in transition, they're very effective in doing so, but
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is a very good defensive team in transition.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Duke obviously has been struggling defending and transition. They're outside
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the top two hundred. So if they want to try
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: to play this game in the half court to take
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: away Texas tax advantage and transition where even though the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Red Raiders don't spend a lot of time in transition,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: there are still a top five team in terms of efficiency.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is the number one defense in the country
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: and half court defense. So Duke is kind of in
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: this weird position where it's like, Okay, we want to
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: play in transition, but we're bad defensively, so if we
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: want to play in the half court, well, we gotta
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: go against number one half court defense in the entire country.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: It's it's a it's a weird type of scheme type matchup.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Duke offensively is a high frequency, cutting and isolation offense
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: which works against most opponents because they have size and
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: athleticism and advantages. But it's not only gonna work against
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech because their top five in defending both of
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: those type of sets. And really the only way to
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: beat Texas Tech is you've got to hit their hit
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: shots from behind the arc, which Duke is capable of doing.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: But it puts a lot of pressure on the Blue
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Devils to hit those shots from three point rage on
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the flip side. We've talked about a lot, but Duke
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: really can't stop anything right now. There. You know, they've
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: played two sub two hundred offenses. They can't attack the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: rim effectively. Duke can't turn anybody over right now. They're
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: outside the top three internal percentage, which is one of
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech's main weaknesses. They're struggling to keep teams off
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: the offensive glass. Texas Tech is the top forty offensive
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: rebounding team, and like I already said, they can't defend
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: in transition. So if Texas Tech wants to get out
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: in transition. They should be able to score basically at will.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a lot of positives for Texas
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Tech in this matchup. So I am on the Red
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Raiders on the money line and minus one of team,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and I think that they're gonna end coach case career tonight.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: You need to trust somebody you don't know at all.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I can't quite get there, but I'm not playing dude.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: But Duke does have the individual talent to score on
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: this elite defense, Like you need just individual playmakers, and
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: you need to make threes, which they can make threas,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: and they have individual playmakers who can just take the
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: ball late in the shock, how can make plays. I
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: actually like the under here. I think the Texas text. Look,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Duke's defense has been a mess, and if you look back,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: they've gone over I don't know, eight of nine games.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Texas Texas offense is the offense
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that can really exploit some of the issues off the ball.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: I think the Duke can really match up individually here,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: and this Texas Tech offense is just ugly and they
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: go through long droughts and I don't think Duke's offense
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: is gonna have it easy, and I think you're gonna
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: see this just become a half court grinder. So I
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: really like the under and chat you know, you said
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: unders are scary. Duke unders are particular scary, but split
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: some with the first half, and you know with this,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: when spreads are really tight, it's your better chance. If
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a close skin and a blowout,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: which means there's overtime risk, there's risk of fouls late.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: It's the last game of the year, right for one
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: of these teams, so if you're down, you're gonna foul
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: until the very end. Tournament games foulings up twenty in
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the last two minutes. So if you like an under
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: like I do, here, put some on the first half
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: under as well, uh, you know, for some satity and
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: then partial hedge against some of those laking situations with
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: fouling and potential over time. But I think this turns
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: into a half court ground. Of these two teams played
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like three or four years ago and Zion was a
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Duke on a neutral court in Madison Square Garden. Final
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: scores like sixty eight. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: something similar, Duke's defense has to just come out and guard,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: which they haven't been able to do. But the Texas
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Tech offense can, you know, kind of beat itself at times.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: The fouling in the final two minutes would be even
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: compared to previous years if not for U n C.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Baylor or Perdue Texas. But yeah, that was There's been
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a couple of rough shows so far, some real ship shows.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Spoken like a true leader, which is all Shazewski says
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: he ever wanted to be. That's what I was trained
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: to do. That's why I went to West Point to
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: be a leader. Yeah, this game, I honestly, looking at
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: just the reverse line of movement would scare me off.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: The Duke Duke has literally been getting all the money,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: all the bets, and the line just keeps moving towards
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: TESSAs Texas Tech. So obviously a professional group has made
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a stance and they're taking Texas Tech here. So I
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: would say be careful if you're a Duke fan like me,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait and hopefully get an inline game, get
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: a better number than this, because, like Stuffy he said,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: I really don't feel like there's that much value right now.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Um with this number, it's just it's just such a
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: low number. But the next matchup, Houston Arizona. You guys
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: already talked about you reseated it. You both had Houston
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: as a one seed. This is obviously the best game
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: of the Thursday Friday Slate. Who do you guys like
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: in this match? We'll start with you, b J. I
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: don't really like a side of this one. I think
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: this is a game you can jump in on live.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest. I was waiting for this line to
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: come open, obviously, with Arizona, you know, blowing that lead
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: against TCU and having to go to overtime. I was
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: hoping to get Houston at you know, plus three, plus
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: three and a half, maybe even four, But now we're
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: down to one and a half. I really don't think
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: there's much value in the line. I mean, it's really
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: interesting because you saw how much Arizona struggled keeping TCU
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: off the offensive glass. I mean they had twenty offensive
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: rebounds against them. Well, Houston is third in the country
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: an offensive rebounding percentage and has way way more efficient
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: offense than TCU. Because the horn Frogs basically just relied
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: on offensive rebounds. The entire year. So outside of crashing offense,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: glass really the way to beat a zonas you've got
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: a knockdown threes and you have to be efficient in transition,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: which Houston isn't a great three point shooting team, but
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the r top five top thirty five in terms of
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: efficiency and transition, even if they do play an incredibly
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: slow pace. The problem my affairs don't in this matchup
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: is they're a very high frequency team and finishing at
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the rim, which you just can't do against Houston. And
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: you can ask Illinois about that. They had only eighteen
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: points at the room with Kofee Coburn, So it's it's
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: just a really difficult matchup for Arizona. But on the
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: flip side, you know, I don't really trust Houston off
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Houston's offense, they can go through these kind of rolls
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: and stretches. You know, Arizona obviously they're not they're a
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: good three point shooting team. But you know, if you
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: watched you know, Chris against uh TCO, he's their main
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: three point shooter. He went one of ten and almost
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: took them out of the game. So I think this
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: is a good chance to get on on this live
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I think this game is going to come down to,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: you know, the final few possessions. So if one team
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: comes out hot and gets a big lead, I think
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: you can jump in on whoever's down to get a
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: better number. I can guarantee I will not be up
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: for this game. That's the one thing we can bet
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: on is that I'll be sleeping and I'll learn the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: score in the morning when I roll over and check
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: my phone. Wait, chat, will there be any matchup that
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: you would that could be played at this this time?
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Stought that you would stay up for Duke Carolina was playing.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Would you stand for that? It's honestly, it's not even
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: about the teams. It's just about what can my body handle?
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Like last week, Friday night was a full on sports explosion.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: My kid and I we started watching the games as
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: early as we could in the afternoon. We were watching
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: them until the last game ended. We had multiple screens
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: up on one scream. At one point we had the
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Bulls and the Suns because they were playing late. The
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Bulls were playing, you know, and the ten o'clock tip
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: off in Phoenix. It's only about you know, what is
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: my current body clock status. It's not it's not matchup.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: It's not match up at all. It's only that you
• 22:19
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• 24:01
  Speaker 1: dot net. In West Virginia, we got the Cinderella story,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: the peacocks from St. Peter's from Northern New Jersey going
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: against the Purdue boiler Makers. I'm a little torn on this.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: As a one time resident of Jersey, Northern New Jersey,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I love the state. I love like the attitude of
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: the St. Peter's plays with But even though I went
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: to Indiana when I grew up in the suburbs of Chicago.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: There was a guy from our area who went to
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: play at Purdue. That team with Jean Katie, like was
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: always ranked number one and never made it to the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Final four. So I had a little soft spot for Purdue.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: And it's still been so long since like they had
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: that round, and now Matt Painter has been there a while,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: They've had great teams. I know they're gonna win this game.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: In advance, I would like Purdue to get to the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Final four. Stuck, give me your take on the twelve
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite Purdue boiler Makers against St. Peter's. Yeah. St.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Peter's from Run, Run, Baby, Run Jim. If you saw
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: some of the games last week, their small Jim act
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: an incredible story. You look at like their budget and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Iona was the clear favorite to win that conference. And
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: now in the sweet sixteen is a fifteen seat. Only
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: two other fifteen seats have ever made it this far.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Both actually covered in the Sweet six team, but neither
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: did win. But yeah, run Baby run gym one of
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: the coolest Jim names. By the way, I think I
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: think I read the other day that you were just
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: talking about Jersey to born to run. Uh the Springsteen song.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: They was supposed to be like the Jersey State song,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: and it went to like the Senate and then someone
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: was like brought up that it was about running from
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, so they didn't cast anyway. That just that
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: just great in my head when I was saying run
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: in Jersey. But look, teams in the sweet sixteen there
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: are getting double d its have not had a lot
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: of success in the past, although I guess said the
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: two fifteen seats did cover. St. Peter's is a tough
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: match up here talked about the produced Texas game. Produce
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: shot forty five three throws against Texas who undersize in
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the middle, but their Texas a lot better athletes in St.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Peter's produces march the line. All they do is go
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: to the free throw line top ten in the country
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and that aspect because they have just two trees inside
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: that you can't cover well. St. Peter's bottom ten in
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: the country and foul right, very aggressive defense. They can't
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: really stop produe inside here. I mean, look, you go
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: back to Kentucky game. They were playing Oscar Sheeway. You
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: could say, well they beat Kentucky. She had thirty and
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I think fourteen. He did whatever he wanted inside. On
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, Peters, so this could
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: be just a march the free throw line for produce
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: over and over again. The other side of the ball,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Peters relies on two things for offense getting to the line, Well,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: guess what produced also top ten in fault on defense
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: and offensive rebounds produce great defensive rebounding team. So I
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: think the Cinderella stories probably up. If I had to
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: pick a side here, probably go Perdue. I don't show
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: a ton of value in the numbers, so I might
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: just stay away and root for St. Peter's magic. I mean, look,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: there's the three point line the rest might they need
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: them to not call this game tight, but they could
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: hit a bunch of threes. Produced could be off and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: maybe we can get a fifteen seed the Elite eight
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: for the first time ever. How can you not root
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: for that? But from a matchup perspective, it's bad news
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: for the Peacocks. J Yeah, I agree, it's it's it's
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: a really bad matchup for the Peacocks. You know it's funny.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: I'll send you a thread chat of all the crazy
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: things that St. Peter's and their budget. A former assistant
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: basically went through all of just the crazy things from
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: their boug did that happened, from the gym leaking multiple times,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: from them working in an offense with one inchro of
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: water on the floor, Like, it's just it's crazy that
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: they actually made it this far. I agree with Stucky,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: it's it's hard because the size that Purdue has inside
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: is really a huge advantage against St. Peter's. And like
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: I mentioned when I came on for the first round
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: breaking on the first round of tournament, St Peter's attacks
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: room with the highest frequency of anybody in the country.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: But they're not effective in doing stone. They weren't really
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: bad effective against Kentucky or Murray State, and so trying
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: to score at the rim against produced size is a
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: big problem. They really just have to go berserk from
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: a three point line. That's really the only chance that
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: they have because like Stuffy said, they're not gonna be
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: able to get to the line like they're used to. Uh,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: it's just it's a really, really tough matchup for St. Peter's.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: But they get hot from three. Uh, they could do it.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: So I definitely lean per do with the massive size
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: advantages down low, But you know what, Kentucky had massive
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: size advantages down low and look what happened to them,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: So who knows what can happen. Perdue is no stranger
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: to covering big numbers in the tournament. So far, they're good.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: They're a good big favorite. Yeah. Generally they play these
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: main majors that just can't You can't cover seven footers, right,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: they don't have the size, and then it's just produce layout,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: produced dunk, produce layout. Even if they're not hitting their threes,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: it's just a tough matchup when you have that much size.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: I'm heartbroke. You guysn't call them the Peacocks the whole time,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: like you just kept calling them St. Peter's. I mean,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: come on, guys, Peacocks, the Peacocks. Gotta let them fly,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: proud man. I love that they're Also they're the best
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: against the spread college basketball team? Is that correct? Season? St?
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Peter's Pea Cocks nineteen and four. I believe you know.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: I love riding those trends, so I'm definitely gonna be
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: taking them. I've taken them last two weeks. Did not
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: touch the money line either game because I am a coward.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I'm doing I'm gonna throw a little on the money
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: line this time. So look, if it gets close late,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: all the pressure shifts. The pressure. That's what I'm thinking,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: disappointment that they're supposed to win this. So if St.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Peterson just keep it close and people are crawdle turn
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: and you know, it'll get interesting. People's whole thing. They
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: don't like it's a whole week of them being celebrated.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: It's like, have you guys seen their school. They're getting
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: celebrated by like ten people. It's like they've come back
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to like thousands of thousands of forty thousand people campus.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: It's like a two thousand person campus. So Roberts or
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Roberts had a shot to beat there the fifteen seeds,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the one of the other three including St. Peter's fifteen
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: seeds to get to the sweet sixteed. They had a
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: shot to beat Arkansas late. So you never know. I
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: love it. So we got next up, Providence versus Kansas
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, am, Am I crazy? Is that
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: way too many points in this matchup? Where is Kansas
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that legit in your opinion? What what do you think?
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: I would sit here and tell you analytically that Kansas
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: has a ton of advantages and that they should be
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: able to blow out Providence. I mean, shot quality has
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: in minds twelve for Kansas. They you know, they're top
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: forty in terms of points, possession and transition, Providence outside
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: the top three hundred. So Kansas should be able to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: just absolutely torch them. But again, I don't really know
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Providence because they have this weird
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: ability for teams to just not hit open shots against them.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: It's very very strange. I don't know how they do it,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: but teams too, for whatever reason, you can't hit open
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: shots in Kansas has struggled all year getting margin against
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: UH has big favorites, and they did it against a
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: very underman creating team that was out without their starting
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: point guard and center. I mean, there are so many
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: times they could have just gone on runs and put
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that game away, but they just couldn't. So this is
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: a game I will ultimately passing because Providence has beaten
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: me down into the ground, and Kansas also, I just
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: don't trust them as a big favorite. So I'm just
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: ultimately just passing on this game and Providence will probably
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: win by twenty UH and I'll just you going in
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: further into the ground. BJ sounds like a man defeated study.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I am very I like Providence. I'm on Providence here.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I think it's too many points. Um. Look, Providence has
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: a bunch of the They're one of the most experience
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: teams the country. They're well coached, and BJ pointed it out.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Candas can't really extend against teams that are just like
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: slightly inferior. I think prob the Province also is a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: number of options of guys. They don't rely on one
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: guy getting hot. It's a really well balanced team. I
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: think that they can. You know, their physicality can give
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Candas and problems. Candice in transition is deadly against anybody,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and providences transition defense is awful. So Providence isn't hitting shots.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: It's could get really ugly, but they're gonna have the
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: shots anyway to stay in it. That just means that
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: it could go from like ten to twenty quick. But
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: I think this is too many points. I've been on
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Providence the first two rounds. I'm on him again. I'll
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: ride this voodoo wagon until the wheels fall off, all right, Look,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: the next game is such a classic. You know, college
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Blue Blood matchup U n C and U c l
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: A l A two and a half point favorites. U
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: n C obviously surprised knocking off Baylor giving up a
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: twenty five point lead, winning in overtime. Good for Hubert
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Davis feel good story. I don't care if they can
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: advance stuck, can they cover? No? I like U n
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: ST here. I'm waiting to lock it in. There's one
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: of them you see as best players hurt last week
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: in Honny Hawks, and they're waiting to see if they say,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: if you can walk, he can play. People were analyzing,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: like him walking to the bus. I think he's gonna play.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be a d pent. But if
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: if word gets out that he's fine, if he's warming up,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: you might see this line come up. Heeded A three
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: three and a half. So I'm waiting to see if
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: that happens before I take you and see. But I
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: think that this is pretty close to a coin flip,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: and I think that UNC has a lot of advantages here. Look,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: this U c l A defense is incredible, but in
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: order to beat them, you have to do a couple
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: of things. You have to be able to hit threes,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: catch and shoot threes, and that's where UNC is elite,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: and you have to beat them in transition and you
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: celize transition defense outside the top three, UNC is a
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: lead in that aspect, and what will UNC do here?
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: They can defensive rebound their second in the country in
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: that aspect, and that takes that does two things. That
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: takes away strength of U c l A, who is
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: good on the offensive glass, and it leads a transition
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: opportunities the other way where UNC could take advantage of
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: U c l A and the other side of the ball.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: You UNC doesn't turn anybody over ever, but U c
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: l A doesn't turn turn the ball over ever against anyone,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: So that strength is kind of negated in a way
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: because UNC is not gonna turn anyone over anyway. You
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: stay is not going to turn it over. So you know,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: UNC is weak on the three point line. U c
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: l A doesn't really shoot threes. Are outside the top
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: three hundreds of mid range jumping team. So I think
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: at their peak, UNC is a more talented inventor team. Slightly.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: They have underperformed UCLA has been wayne more consistent. The
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: problem with you and see is they've had a number
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: of games where their defense just doesn't show up just
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason. Young team, their defense doesn't show up
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: some of their young pieces. But it's a tournament. You
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: can expect their defense to be locked in here. I
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: like UNC catch to the points. I'm gonna wait to
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: see if i can get a three. Are you as
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: defeated on this as you are on Providence? B J No,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna disagree with stuff. He actually like U
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: c l A minus two, And I agree that there
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: are some wording designs for U c l A in
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: terms of you know, the the catch and shoot threes
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: and defending off pick and rolls and everything. But you know,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is a top twenty team in terms of
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: efficiency off off ball screens, and that's how they get
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: that's basically how they beat Baylor. Well, you see a
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: topfending into top fifty in defending those off ball screens
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: and Ulto be able to handle bay coot download because
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: they're top fifty team in terms of defending post upsets.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna put a lot of pressure on North
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Carolina to knock down those three pointers, which if you
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: look at their shot quality staffs, they are due for
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: some negative aggressions shooting the ball. U c l A.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: You're gonna see a ton of mid range jumpers, and
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: for good reason, because their top ten in terms of
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: efficiency from the mid range from Northcohan is only average
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: at defending from the mid range. Uh, it's gonna be
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: very difficult. It's from North Carolina, you know. Obviously, if
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: they're able to dominate the defensive glass, Uh, then that's great,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: But not being able to turn opponents over, that's gonna
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure on them to keep U
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: c l A off the offensive glass. So, uh, we'll
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: see if Hawk has plays. I mean, if if he
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: If he's not, I still do like U c l
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: A at minus two are better. But I'm actually on
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: the Bruins in this matchup. All right, Nah, we got
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: a conflict. I don't know what to do right now,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: So we'll have to wait and see. If Hawks plays,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: I think that changes everything. Gonna wait and see see
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: how the number moves. Simon back to you, buddy, This
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: feels like the first matchup that I looked at and
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: thought of college football. I don't know why Iowa Stay
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: versus Miami just brought me to Bowl season. I was
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: like man, they should name this matchup some type of
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: bowl game. But then I looked at it and it's
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: just interesting. They're both ten and eleven steed. So this
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: is obviously two teams that you said they got a
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: little lucky getting here. Maybe they're underseated. This Miami team
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: just not has has not been hitting shots yet. They're
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: still winning and they're doing a weird ways like what
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: they have twenty steels last game. I could not get
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: over how they won these past weekends. So looking at this,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: it feels like everyone's coming on Miami and I'm right
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: there with him. It's up to minus two and a
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: half now against Iowa State. Am I overthinking this? I
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: just go the Iowa State side. I looked Miami personally,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: and Jim Larenega's boys here. Yes, that's a very nice,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: very nice. I think it's a great matchup for Miami
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. Look they got here. They beat an LSU
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: team in Surrey without a coach that just turns the
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: ball over. Then they beat Wisconsin that lost heap Burn
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: there and they couldn't really run offense with him. He
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: got injured and was out for the game, and they
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: turned they had nineteen force turnervers and seventeen force turners
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: in their first two tournaments. Because that's what I Was
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: State does. Pressure defense, that's the only way they could score.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Their half court offense is disgusting, but they can force turnovers,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: get out in transition and score well. Guess what Miami
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: And because obviously at number four in the country and
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: force turnover percentage, Miami number five in turnover percentage on offense.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: They don't turn the ball over ever, they have four
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: ball handles on the court at all times, they're not
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: gonna turn the ball over. On the other side of ball,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Miami actually forces turnovers and I Was State turns it
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: over incessantly. So it's actually Miami that's gonna be able
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: to force turnovers here. That's how they beat USC despite
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: shooting one or fourteen from three, USC was nine of twenty.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be to get on transition and their number
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: one in the nation in transition efficiency. So I think
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: this is a really easy handicap with the problem with
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Miami all year is their interior defense. They're not big,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: and rebounding not really concerns against I WAS State. I
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: think it's a great matchup for Miami. I that's my check.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I think everyone's on it, don't care. I think it's
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: a great matchup. Um, I'll be on the Keynes money
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: line here. Maybe pair them with per Do if you want,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: or organ Zaga if you want to get the price down.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: But I think Miami advances. I think it's it's just
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: a spectacular matchup. That's kind of the columness I need
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: right at the end. See how you did that? That
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: was good? Yeah, I totally agree, echoing everything stuck, he said,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: I would stay. It's really just stuck in this matchup
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: because if they want to play in transition, which they're
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: better at offensively, well, like Sucary said, Miami most efficient
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: team in transition offensively, but they're also top sixty five
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: in defending in transition, and where Miami's weakest is defending
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: in the half court, which Iowa State three thirty six
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: end points for possession and half court offense and averaged
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: over under point eight points for possession and half court offense,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: which is really bad in the first two games. So
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really know what I Was State is gonna do.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: They can't if they're obviously a very good team at
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: defending in the half court, but they want to play
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a half court game. They can't score offensively, so I
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: don't really know what they're gonna do in Miami. Like,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: there's just so many advantages for Miami, especially at the rim.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Miami fill will percentage of the rim. This this year,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: they faced usc It was the second best team in
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: the country at defending at the rim, put up one
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: point one three points for possession against Auburn. Against Vary
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Smith and Walker Kessler, they had forty points at the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: rim against them. I would say it is top fifty
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: nationally defending at the rim. So I still think Miami
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: is gonna have advantages there. I'm stucky. I love the Hurricanes.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: There's just way too many advantages for them for the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: line to be this slow, So I'm on the Hurricanes
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: minus too. All that's all good, All right, guys. Before
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: we get out of here, we'll preview post to lead
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: eight final four and championship game. But now with the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen set, we're gonna have another eight games over
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the next two days. B J, give me your final
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: four coming out of the weekend. I'll go Texas Tech
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: making the final four out of the West. I had
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: that Originally, I think that they'll get by Duke and
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: give Gonzaga a lot of problems. I'll have per Due
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: coming out of the East. I'll take Arizona coming out
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: of the South. It doesn't make me feel very good
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: given their matchup against Houston, and I'll have Kansas coming
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: out of the Midwest for the final four. Stuck, what
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: about you? I'll go Gonzaga, North Carolina, Villa Nova and Kansas. Wow.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: That's a blue blood final four right there. Except my
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Wildcots aren't there, unfortunately. That's a nice that's a nice
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: round up. All right, guys. For even more college basketball content,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: make sure you listen to Big Bets on Campus, probably
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: our best podcast, great info. I think we're primed for
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. B J Cunningham. Stucky for Simon Hunter. Simon
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Hunter NFL on Instagram. Now for producer Matt Mitchell. I
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Until next time, Please download the podcasts,
• 40:42
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• 40:46
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• 40:48
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