Latest / Ground Signal FM / Ground Signal Deep Dive: Markets & Economy — October 14, 2026

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Ground Signal Deep Dive: Markets & Economy — October 14, 2026 · Ground Signal FM

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  Ground signal markets? Wednesday, October 14,
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  2026. I'm your host, and this is the Deep Dive.
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  Today is a high signal day. September CPI data
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  dropped at 8 .30 Eastern. The number markets
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  have been waiting on for weeks. Bank earnings
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  from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are already in.
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  Brazil's runoff clock is ticking. Houthi pressure
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  keeps Brent above $105. And the Fed's October
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  meeting is two weeks out. Ground state is signal
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  four. Elevated, directional, actionable. Let's
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  get into it. Equities. Signal 3. S &P 500, tracked
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  through SPY, is trading at $775 .55, down about
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  a third of a percent on the session. Intraday
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  range was 774 to 780. Volume is moderate. Asian
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  markets closed mixed. Nikkei 225 settled at 67
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  ,744, a slight pullback as U .S. futures dipped
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  on the CPI print. Hang Seng closed at 24 ,349,
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  roughly flat after a choppy morning session in
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  Hong Kong. European markets are still open, with
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  DAX tracking modestly lower alongside the bond
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  sell -off. The headline story driving equities
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  today is the CPI read. A 3 .7 % year -over -year
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  print came in hotter than the 3 .6 % consensus.
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  Markets initially dipped, stabilized, then sold
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  off slightly into mid -morning. The hot number
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  complicates the Fed's hold narrative going into
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  October 27th. Q3 earnings season is providing
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  a partial offset. JP Morgan reported $15 .3 billion
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  in net income, $5 .57 per share on $50 .2 billion
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  in revenue. A clean beat. Wells Fargo came in
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  at $6 billion in net income, $1 .87 per share,
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  up 13 % year over year. Both names are trading
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  higher in a down tape, which signals the market
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  is still rewarding quality. What to watch. The
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  next wave of bank earnings runs through Thursday
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  and Friday. CPI reaction continues to settle.
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  If the S &P holds 770 at close, the dip stays
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  contained. Fixed income and rates. Signal 4.
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  The September CPI print is the market event of
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  the week, and it came in hot. CPI, you rose 0
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  .6 % month over month on a seasonally adjusted
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  basis. Year over year, that's 3 .7%. Core CPI,
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  which strips food and energy. rose 2 .6 % year
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  over year. Both numbers came in above consensus.
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  What does this mean for the Fed? The October
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  27th through 28th FOMC meeting is now on a knife's
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  edge. Before the print, markets were pricing
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  roughly 80 % probability of a hold and 20 % for
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  a 25 basis point hike. That hike probability
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  will move higher today as traders reprice the
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  terminal rate path. The 10 -year Treasury yield
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  was tracking around 4 .28 % heading into the
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  session. That number will almost certainly drift
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  higher today, given the CPI shock. The 30 -year
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  was at 4 .85 % as of last week's close. Expect
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  pressure there as well. The fixed income signal
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  is elevated. A hotter -than -expected CPI red,
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  a Fed meeting 14 days away, and a market that
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  had priced in a soft landing, that's a volatile
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  combination. What to watch? How does the 10 -year
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  respond into the close? Any print above 4 .40
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  % would signal serious repricing of the FOMC
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  path. ECB meets October 28th through 29th as
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  well. Back -to -back central bank risk next week.
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  Currencies and FX. Signal 3. The dollar is holding
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  firm on the CPI hot print. DXY is at 102 .22,
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  up fractionally on the day. A hotter CPI typically
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  supports dollar strength as rate expectations
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  shift hawkish. That dynamic is playing out exactly
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  as you'd expect. EM currency snapshot as of this
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  morning. USD to PEN 3 .44. Peruvian Sol holding
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  steady. No domestic catalyst. External pressure
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  from dollar strength is the dominant factor.
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  USD to BRL 5 .02. Brazilian real is range -bound
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  but sensitive. The October 25th runoff between
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  Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro has markets watching
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  closely. Bolsonaro leads in prediction markets
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  and polling. A Bolsonaro win would likely rally
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  Brazilian assets. A Lula win would increase fiscal
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  uncertainty. The Real is trading at a modest
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  risk premium relative to fundamentals. USD to
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  MXN 18 .36. Peso is stable. Banxico has held
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  rates steady, and the carry trade is intact for
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  now. USD to COP 3 ,181. Colombian peso under
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  mild pressure from global dollar demand and domestic
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  security concerns. What to watch? The dollar's
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  reaction to FOMC repricing. If the 10 year moves
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  past 4 .40%, look for renewed EM currency weakness
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  across the board. Penn and BRL are the most exposed
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  given election and political risk overlays. Crypto,
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  signal two. Crypto is soft today, but not alarming.
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  Bitcoin is at $82 ,394, down 0 .95 % on the session.
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  Ethereum at 2 ,455. down 1 .8%. Solana at 104
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  .93, down 1 .6%. The pattern is familiar, risk
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  -off equities hotter than expected macro data,
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  and crypto pulls back modestly in sympathy. No
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  structural breakdown, no exchange stress, just
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  the normal correlation bleed when the macro shock
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  hits. The key narrative remains unchanged. Bitcoin
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  is holding the 80 ,000 to 85 ,000 range that
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  has defined October. It hasn't broken higher
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  toward 90 ,000. and it hasn't cracked lower towards
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  $75 ,000. Sideways accumulation or distribution,
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  the next catalyst will clarify which. What to
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  watch. Any CPI -driven Fed repricing that pushes
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  the 10, year above 4 .40%, will likely apply
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  additional pressure on crypto. Conversely, if
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  equities stabilize into the close, crypto should
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  stabilize as well. Signal remains at 2, low urgency,
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  but worth monitoring the correlation. Commodities,
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  signal 3. Energy is elevated. Gold is holding.
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  Brent crude is trading between $105 and $106
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  per barrel. WTI is at $94 to $95. The Houthi
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  risk premium, estimated by Goldman Sachs at over
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  $20 per barrel, continues to underpin prices.
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  The EIA's October 2026 outlook explicitly flags
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  heightened tanker risk in the Red Sea as a driver
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  of elevated shipping costs and oil price premiums.
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  There is no de -escalation signal from the conflict.
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  Saudi Houthi dynamics remain unresolved, and
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  shipping insurers are still pricing routes around
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  the Cape of Good Hope rather than through Bab
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  el -Mandeb. Gold is at $4 ,161 to $4 ,177 per
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  ounce. The metal is finding support from both
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  the geopolitical backdrop and the rate uncertainty.
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  Higher yields are a headwind, but haven demand
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  is offsetting. Gold's resilience above $4 ,100
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  is notable given the dollar's strength today.
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  What to watch? Any ceasefire signal or Houthi
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  de -escalation would remove the risk premium
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  from Brent quickly. Absent that, energy stays
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  bid. A break above 4 ,200 in gold would signal
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  real safe haven acceleration. Mobility and opportunity
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  signal. Signal 2. Three items on the mobility
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  board today. First, Thailand. The destination
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  Thailand visa remains active and operational.
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  The five -year multiple entry visa with 180 DayStays
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  remains one of the cleanest long -stay options
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  globally for remote workers and digital nomads.
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  No policy changes this week. Second, Malaysia.
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  DE Rantau, the digital nomad pass, is experiencing
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  processing delays due to reported technical issues
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  on the MDEC platform. The program is officially
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  active, but applicants are encountering friction.
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  If you're targeting Malaysia, plan for delays
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  and have backup documentation ready. Third, United
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  States. The State Department expanded its online
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  presence screening on October 1st to include
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  ITN and TD visa categories, adding to the March
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  2026 expansion that covered FMJH, 1B, and others.
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  If you're managing a visa application or renewal
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  in any of these categories, expect social media
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  and online presence review as part of the process.
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  This is directionally more restrictive, not less.
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  Mobility signal stays at 2. Operational developments
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  worth tracking. but no emergency level changes.
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  The U .S. visa screening expansion is the trend
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  to watch. If it continues broadening, it becomes
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  a signal three item by end of quarter. Forward
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  signal, three items for the next 24 to 72 hours.
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  Item one, FOMC repricing, signal four. Today's
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  hot CPI print will continue to move through markets
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  into tomorrow. The 10 -year yield path, equity
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  futures, and rate expectations are all in motion.
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  Watch how the Fed's most hawkish members respond
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  in public statements. Any hint of willingness
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  to hike on October 27th changes the calculus
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  significantly. Item two, Brazil runoff signal
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  four. The October 25th runoff between Flavio
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  Bolsonaro and Lula is 11 days out. Bolsonaro
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  leads in polls and prediction markets. Brazilian
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  assets, equities, the real, are trading a Bolsonaro
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  premium. Any polling shift or security incident
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  in Brazil between now and the 25th will move
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  the BRL. This is a sustained watch item. Item
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  three, bank earnings continuation, signal three.
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  JP Morgan and Wells Fargo beat today. Goldman
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  Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America report
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  later this week. If the quality beats continue,
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  earnings season provides a floor for equities
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  even as macro uncertainty rises. A miss or weak
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  guidance from any major would amplify the CPI
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  -driven sell -off. That's the signal for Wednesday,
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  October 14th. Markets are elevated but not in
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  free fall. CPI is the dominant force today. Brazil
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  and the Fed are the dominant forces for the next
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  two weeks. Stay positioned. Stay informed. Ground
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  Signal Markets, out.