Latest / Financial Survival Network / When Will The Time Be Right To Invest In Gold? - Gary Wagner #6099

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When Will The Time Be Right To Invest In Gold? - Gary Wagner #6099 · Financial Survival Network

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The speculative nature of gold that doesn't yield interest, isn't all that attractive or
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isn't as attractive? I should say, well, returns go down to two
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percent, or we can recall the days just a few years ago when you
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know if you got a half of percent in a CD, that was a
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good return. When you have low interest rates, gold becomes a lot more
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attractive and the allure becomes more present. You're listening to Carrie Let'sa's Financial Survival
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Network where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in
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today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
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Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
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Survival Network now more than ever, and welcome you are listening to and watching
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the Financial Survival Network. We got one of our favorite guests back on with
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us. It's been a while, Gary Wagner, The Goold Forecast dot Com.
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We're going to go over what's doing with gold prices or whether you go
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all in or whether you wait? When will the time be right? Make
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sure you check out gary site, The Goold Forecast dot Com. Questions comments,
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kl at Carrie lets dot com. All are answered. Gary. It's
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great to have you back on the show. It's been a while. A
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lot has happened, gold trading at all at or near all time highs.
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Silver not so much. But silver is starting to make the long awaited move.
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But the question is are we all going to be breathing by the time
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silver makes a new high. Thanks so much for having me. It has
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been a while and it is great to be back, Carrie. Thank you
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sure so. So where are we heading here? Let's say some charts.
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You're the master of the precious metals charts. Absolutely, I'm going to go
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ahead and not pull up a gold chart for us, and this is a
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daily candlestick chart of gold, and I've got it starting at the lows that
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came in back in October. And to just think, just you know,
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not even a year ago we were looking at nineteen hundred dollars silver. We
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went through a market that kind of traded sideways the beginning of the year,
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but really took off in February hit the first of two all time record highs.
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The second came in in May, and now we're back to a support
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level of right around twenty three one hundred dollars per ounce, and that's after
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watching gold correct from what about twenty four fifty, And this is gold futures
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that we are looking at a little bit price a little bit above spot pricing.
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It has been a phenomenal market. And the Federal Reserve has not implemented
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its first rate cut because I believe what's going to happen is there's very there's
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a very low probability that they're going to implement a rate cut at the FOMC
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meeting this month, very little. I think it's almost a ninety six percent
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probability of keeping them where they're at, but it goes up to almost seventy
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percent in September. And the key to me is not that they're going to
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make a rate cut in September, but when they do, that will signal
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a series of rate cuts, because if you recall any of the most recent
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dot plots that are included in the sept the Summary of Economic Projections, well,
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they were looking for three rate cuts this year now too, further rate
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cuts next year, and then twenty twenty six to normalize rates. And so
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if they're going to take their Fed funds rate from between five and a quarter
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five and a half percent, where they are now down to a normalized rate,
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which could be two and a half rather than two, but nonetheless that's
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a big drop, and that will really take gold into new unheard of territory
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in terms of new all time record high pricing. All right, fascinating,
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fascinating. So you know, like they always said, inflation doesn't pick up,
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not with low interest rates, but when they raise interest rates, inflation
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starts picking up because then the banks make more loans and private money creation takes
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off. But this time it's a little bit different, isn't it. Well,
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absolutely, and realize that it's different because of the environment that got us
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here, which started with a pandemic, then supply chain, bottomnecks, all
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kinds of issues from the United States basically shutting down its workforce for a year
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a year and a half and then rebuilding back into a normalized state. And
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so because of that, you had a unique scenario that got us here.
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So you have a unique set of circumstances that unfolded because of that. I
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would just say that Florida wasn't shut down as much as the rest of the
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world or the country here. We were shut down. I think about six
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weeks till somebody realized that, hey, half the state's going to go bankrupt
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if we don't start back to work shortly. So but in any event,
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I totally agree with your analysis of it. All right, so what else
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do we have here? So when can we look forward? Do you think
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when's the right cut? They got to have one by the end of the
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year. I'm shocked that they're not doing it because because of the political season
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here to you know, one time, Alan Abelson, the late great editor
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of Barons, wrote that the Federal Reserve is doing what it does best,
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which is getting a president reelected, and they seem to have taken a hands
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off approach here. Gary, I would hope that they would. They've got
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more serious problems. Although that's a very serious problem in terms of the upcoming
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election. But the problem that they are faced with is that the current level
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of interest rates are adding untenable sustainable rate. Why, because we have a
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budget deficit, that's what forty four trillion dollars, and so the Treasury Department
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is responsible for making good at least servicing the interest on our debt. So
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as our debt goes up, the payments balloon when you've got interest rates at
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four and five percent is opposed to two percent, and both Powell as well
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as Treasury Secretary Yellen said that this law level is absolutely unsustainable for any continued
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length of time. So I think that the real headache that the FED is
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facing by not reducing their FED funds rate is that it makes our government have
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such a more difficult job in just servicing the interest on our national debt,
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let alone to say that it has been ballooning and continues to grow. So
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you've got a scenario where our deficit is growing and the cost to service it
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is increasing. That is the primary problem. I think the Treasury and the
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Fed our faith right, I got it. I have a solution for it,
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all right, really simple. We take the President of Argentina Mile and
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we create a new cabinet position called the Department of Slashing Government Spending, useless
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government spending, and we put him in charge, and he does a Qatar
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Tatar Tatar tatar, and within probably a week he only has to be there
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for a week, he will have cut so much government spending that will have
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a surplus, and we'll be able to pay our debt down probably in a
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few years. Wouldn't that be nice? Huhit short of that, I don't
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see any any solutions because every president wholly embraces inflation and excessive government spending.
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Doesn't matter what party they're from. Uh, there's only one party, incumbency
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or the UNI party, and that's that, all right. So tell us
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silver, silver, silver, all right. It's been holding onto my silver
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for years now. It seems I'm thinking of melting it down into bullets and
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going becoming a vampire slayer. That might be a good use for it,
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because it hasn't really gotten that much more expensive. We're looking at a lead
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chart. This is in candlestick format of silver, and what you can see
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is that we had a tremendous rise from about twenty three dollars February, and
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it really surprised me when back towards the middle of May it rose above thirty
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dollars. It's the first time we've seen that. I think the last time
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we saw thirty dollars silver was about two years ago. But then when you
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look at thirty two dollars silver, it on a technical basis is a very
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interesting level. And I'll try to show you why if I can get this
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in here. I'm going to compress this to a weekly chart, and what
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you can see is all these series of tops that came in in twenty twenty
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and so a move above this and this is where it gets interesting, and
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I'm going to move it to a monthly. No one trades or buys off
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a monthly, but I'll show you what I'm talking about, and that is
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this, if silver out of clothes using basis can move above thirty two dollars
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on a technical basis, you've got really a little bit of resistance at thirty
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three, but nothing major till about forty dollars. Silver has been a perplexing
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precious metal that it hasn't followed gold, it hasn't followed palladium or platinum.
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It's it's been in an isolated world of itself in that as metals were running
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to record highs, silver was staying flat. And at the same time,
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if you read a lot of articles and events that came out in the media,
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they were talking about silver shortages and squeezes, all these pundits and I
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think salesman really that we're saying, you know, it's not if, but
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when silver going back to fifty, well when it hasn't shown us historically that
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that has happened. And so if you can see on this monthly chart,
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it's really back in twenty fourteen, thirteen and twelve, and that was the
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last time silver really hit a high that was an all time record high.
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And so because of that, a break and a close above thirty two could
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be really significant and could signal a challenge of those prices back ten years ago.
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Yeah. I so one thing that a lot of people mistake the psychological
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number for the technical number. The psychological number is the whole number of thirty
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bucks, and everyone thought happy days are here again. But the technical number
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is what you've got there at thirty two, thirty three around there. But
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you know, based on what you're seeing here, the chart looks pretty good.
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It looks like it's forming a cup with a handle, doesn't it.
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Well on that, let's take it back to a daily because I just had
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to compress it so we could get a strong idea. What I'm seeing is
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we hit this top at thirty three. This is back at the end of
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May trade it down to about twenty three, and then over the last couple
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of days we've seen some real strike and support come in right around twenty nine.
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There's resistance right below today's move on this daily chart. Of course,
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we have a shortened trading week with independence, say, being celebrated later this
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week. So my senses is that we need to see sober challenge and trade
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above thirty two. And I believe that is highly possible if gold trades to
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a new record high. And I think that that is inevitable once the federal
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Reserve begins, right cuts, Yeah, yeah, And and so it's leading
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up to the rate cuts where everyone knows it's going to happen, uh,
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and they're just waiting for them to pull the trigger that could set it off
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too. Absolutely, all right, anything else that we need to be looking
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at here? Those are the two things I'm focusing on. I mean,
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what about interest rates? Interest rates you track it separately because you know the
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metals are somewhat dependent upon them. Well, we I am fairly firmly of
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the conviction, and history has kind of proven out that lower interest rates bodes
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really well for gold, not so much as an inflation hedge, but the
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fact that now it has less competition against fixed incomes become less attractive. You
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can take four and five percent in a fixed guaranteed income. The speculative nature
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of gold that doesn't yield interest isn't all that attractive, or isn't as attractive
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I should say when returns go down to two percent, or we can recall
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the days just a few years ago, when you know if you got a
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half of percent in a CD, that was a good return. When you
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have low interest rates, gold becomes a lot more attractive and the allure becomes
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more present. Hey, so Gary, if you had two hundred and fifty
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thousand that somebody just dropped on your desk today, what would you do with
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it. I've put a good portion in the precious metals long term. They're
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high now, I've looked to buy the dips. But the fact that gold
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has held on to twenty three hundred. If you recall think about when gold
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traded to its first big record high middle of twenty eleven. When it did
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that, it dropped to eighteen hundred and then traded between eighteen hundred and fifteen
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hundred for a while and then spike down to one thousand. So far,
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we have haven't seen that. We have not seen the kind of correction that
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followed the last all time Ruging. I the in the middle of twenty eleven,
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so I would have a portion allocated to that there are in terms of
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equities. It's it's not a stock market, my mentor taught me one time.
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It's a market of stocks. There are some out there that I like.
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They might be over sold, like in video, but I think their
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technology is unique and no one competes with them, and so I would look
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to that the moat they got the moat. Yeah, I think the precious
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metals are going to provide long term stability and opportunity in the next say,
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three to five years. Okay, as a financial guy looking at AI,
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what are your thoughts? Marvelous? It is a disruptive, transformative technology that
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will reshape the world as we know it. I mean, the use of
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these the chat bots and AI is pretty much mixed into everything in every large
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company, whether it's Facebook, Google, the big ones, Apple, They're
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all implementing and integrating AI into their platforms, and so it's become readily available
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to those that are somewhat savvy and those that are novices to be able to
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polish a report by plugging it into chat, GBT or into Claude, which
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is one that I happen to favor and having it polish that within thirty or
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forty seconds. It sure beats the days of grammarly and the days of spell
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checks. I mean, it's transformed the ability to come out with a highly
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refined article that takes your thoughts and doesn't change them if you put the prompts
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in properly, but organize it in such way that you're always putting your best
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foot forward. It is going to revolutionize so many components in so many industries
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that when we look back to twenty twenty four and twenty five, five years,
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eight years from now, we are going to realize that this was that
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pivotal moment in which AI began to infuse itself into the everyday lives of working
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class and working Americans. I should say, because it enals us to do
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so much more, work so much quicker, and have a much more effective
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tool at whether your medium is speaking, writing, any vocation that you have,
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you can really hands it by the proper use of AI. Now there's
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stangers with that, but we'll have to see how those pan out. All
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Right, all right, I'm totally agreeing with you. You know, I
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don't like to just use it to generate stuff. But when I have stuff
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already that I could plug into it, it could be a nice place to
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start. I'd never kind of just use it for batim. I don't trust
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it that much. And it's definitely as a political skew because I like to
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be sarcastic. I put into the thing, you know, the current occupant
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of the White House, like, without getting political, is three top accomplishments.
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Number one ending a useless war in Afghanistan, a twenty year war and
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bringing of the troops in a week. Number two was solving the labor shortage
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that was caused by the pandemic and opening up the border to get all those
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new workers. And number three was curing the hotel shortage with all the newcomers.
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And the thing like put together, I'm laughing hysterically at it because those
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are three things that are very negative. I agree that the war needed to
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end. Who shouldn't have been there? Nation building all that, totally agree,
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but a little more orderly maybe, and you know, legal immigration.
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But this thing like was lauding the policies that they were the greatest things that
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ever happened, you know, So anything political. My point is keep it
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away from the aid. We don't need it, we don't want it.
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But uh, these journalists, these people parading as journalists, well hey,
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we don't really need them anyway, So just give it over to chat GPT
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and let that run with it. Right, Well, Asie, I agree
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with you, I would not trust it in any way to just do something
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for me. If I write a think piece or an article, I will
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put it in on occasion into one of the AI platforms, but I go
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use every fact in detail that I presented, do not omit anything, go
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anything but polish and rewrite it. Then it it really does a better job
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than say grammarly or something else to spell check, but to order the way
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your your article is laid out, but you have to tell it. Use
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every fact, use every use every detail, don't admit and don't add,
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and then you can get something that is truly more polished than what you put
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in without what they call hallucinations. If you ask to do write an article
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on where you think gold is going out, you know next three months,
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Lord knows you you can get anything. And if you ask it the same
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question ten times, you'll get ten completely different answers. So in that way,
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it's laugh not laughable, but it doesn't have the kind of benefits that
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it does if properly utilized. The idea of text to video just amazes me
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what you can publish and what kind of video you can create by old man
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sipping a bowl of soup in an urban city and it comes out with these
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breath taking videos. So there's definitely a transformation taking on. Totally agree with
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you. It's yeah, I don't trust it. But like writing show notes
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and then reviewing them, I mean I can tell when stuff's written by AI,
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and you know because eventually I just this isn't real and I just stop
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listening or reading. But when you write your own material and then you tell
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it to clean it up and don't cut anything out, it can really do
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an admirable and save you a lot of time. Look, I was paying
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somebody, yes, yeah, I was paying somebody twenty thirty bucks an hour
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to write my show notes and you know, I do a lot of content.
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And she was a great writer, really polished, but she didn't really
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understand what I did. And you know, then the Zoom has an app
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allthread dot AI, so I got that and it would take notes and it
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was pretty darn good. I take those notes, I make changes, I
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throw them into chat GPT or one of the others, and it comes up
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with really good work. But it's like it'll say in this insightful interview Carrie
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Lutz and Gary Wagner, it's just like predictable with these platitudes and stuff,
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so you have to cut them out. But you know, outside of that,
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it's a timesaver. I think Gary, like when we hit like the
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nineties, basically, I think the economy was headed for a real crash,
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and then the Internet came and I thought it really saved us. Then the
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Internet crashed the stocks, but then you know, we moved on from there.
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We have the war, economy, everything else. But now I think
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we're in a similar position. The economy is headed for an implosion. But
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AI, I think has the potential, well, I'm not fully convinced has
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the potential to really really change things around. Unquestionably will the way I look
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at someone like myself and to a degree you they're going to have. AI
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is going to be able to at some point come close to duplicating what we
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do, but they won't be able to duplicate our take and our thoughts and
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our I'll look on something the one thing AI can do, and I'll leave
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this as a last kind of thought. I remember doing lectures in Indonesia and
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I had a translator because there's not many English speaking people there, and the
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translator was hard pressed. If I use something like a stochastic oslator, any
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technical jargon that a market technician would use, they fell apart. Lost.
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It was just they were lost. AI knows how to deal with any modality,
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whether it's medical, health, insurance analysis. It knows the subtleties and
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the word tracks and specific vocabulary to those vocations. And that what That's something
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that amazes me. The same here, I agree. So I go over
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to Gary site. It's still written by a human being, thegoldfecast dot com.
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And you've got a question for Gary myself. The email address is kl
24:52
at Carrie Lutz dot com and the link to Gary site is in the show
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notes to this in review on Financial Survival Network dot com. So go there,
25:03
sign up for your free newsletter. Gary always a pleasure, great reconnecting.
25:07
We'll talk to you again real soon. Absolutely, thanks for having me,
25:10
Bye bye. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival Network your solution
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to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever,