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Fantasy Football Top-10 Offenses, Injury News and Draft Slot Debate · Fantasy NFL Today

0:00
[SPEAKER_01]: What up, everyone?
0:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, John Moe Seals.
0:02
[SPEAKER_01]: This is for ethos production.
0:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The Bay of Seattle fell today, show.
0:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And I got my co-host, I'm gonna put this arrow.
0:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Brian, Brian Shade, Brian is a projection model if you should check that out.
0:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It is the most invaluable tool for fantasy in terms of preseason before your drafts, seeing, you know,
0:20
[SPEAKER_01]: What snapshare is going to be like with target distributions going to be like who's going to have the ball and then for in season adjusting to you know the vagus lines and just to get a better more detailed look at projecting what your fancy points are going to be Brian do I explain that right.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Or sure.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, I mean, the preseason projection is more, yeah, kind of basic medium.
0:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would use that combined with I'm pretty sure you're doing your own rankings again as well.
0:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So probably look at them combined.
0:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's probably your best way of seeing floor and upside.
0:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because even when you're doing rankings like it's sat based, but it's also a situation to say a little by based, like there's just some stuff you get a feeling and you know, and you're just going to go that way.
1:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Like we would talk about the paths for a second in the pre-show.
1:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just kick off right here.
1:09
[SPEAKER_01]: What do we do with this AJ Brown Drake May situation?
1:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Because
1:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Pat schedule is getting harder.
1:15
[SPEAKER_01]: They have their offseason drama.
1:16
[SPEAKER_01]: We bring an AJ Brown who's going to be that wider receiver FU mode.
1:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You got Drake May, who was the best deepball passer in the league.
1:24
[SPEAKER_01]: That gets a wider receiver one.
1:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They were the second best offense.
1:27
[SPEAKER_01]: They're scoring like 30 points of game.
1:29
[SPEAKER_01]: In theory, it is a match made in heaven.
1:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe the dream fantasy stack other than bro takes.
1:37
[SPEAKER_01]: But.
1:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think the safe way to do it is draft him as like a low and wide receiver one, so in like the 10 to 12 range is probably my I get it with upside you can definitely go.
1:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going in second round maybe.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's like 15.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: 80.
1:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so like, I think that's fair.
1:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think we're as being valued as fair.
1:59
[SPEAKER_00]: There's good and bad news.
2:00
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of AJ Brown.
2:02
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a roller coaster of emotion sometimes.
2:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought why don't he ever though.
2:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he tends to be a little bit more.
2:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Not everyone's reading the book on the sidelines.
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's great.
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Great.
2:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he can't read.
2:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not LeBron, but he can.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But.
2:16
[SPEAKER_00]: But no, I mean, I think I think he's quite valuable.
2:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he, like, they didn't really have an alpha last year.
2:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they had digs, but like, that's true, digs performed well when he was healthy, except, but I just think age at ground is an alpha on that team.
2:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Dobbs very much sloshed into that second roll well.
2:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm not afraid of it, and I do think now that the paths have a harder schedule, they're not going to be running the ball as much, and they will have to pass it more.
2:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is good.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just not going to bet on him being a top five water sheep or I just
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: guys schedule there.
2:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I think is scary enough that I'm not taking that bet.
3:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it if people are and he's a great talent.
3:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You might be a top five talent, but he's just hard for me to go top five with.
3:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so just quit.
3:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So the schedule thing people keep bringing that up, but it's really not that hard.
3:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think it's the 12th.
3:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it the 12th easiest, a warm sure pass them at number 10, the 10th easiest schedule.
3:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
3:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I get it going from the one of the easiest schedules in the history of the NFL.
3:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think the Delta is that big, whereas I think people are overplaying how much worse the schedule is going to be.
3:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Or I think it could actually be more beneficial because if again, if they're passing more, they're not blowing teams out playing better offenses.
3:41
[SPEAKER_01]: But for me, it's just
3:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm out.
3:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just out because like great May second season was the store.
3:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I just if you lead the League of D ball passing and past percentage, that is a unicorn season to me, and I don't think it's replicable, but then they add to, you know, one of the lead, why to see her one did ride, why to see her.
3:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's like the Jamie Daniels for a few season.
4:02
[SPEAKER_01]: CJ Stradwerke season.
4:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Some guys, they peek early and then you're chasing the ghost and it's just really hard to do it back to back.
4:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is all vibes base, there's all the stats say that Drake may and AJ Brown is a match made face he haven't, but I'm not going to do it.
4:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, and it's like this, like I just submitted my second round for the model and Drake may still number two and a lot like kind of for my first few rounds of the model I don't touch what like I don't think Drake may is going to be too, but I don't really try to touch much like the manually bring people up and down until the end just because I want to see how things play out and why and then I can figure out like why is Drake may number what?
4:44
[SPEAKER_00]: or number two behind Josh Allen is because he ran them all at a 20% clip, like 20% of the rush share for New England and he was a great people pastor.
4:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that combination, it's fantasy heaven for a QB.
4:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you wanna QB, that's gonna run and we'll take those shots deep.
5:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think, and like you said, AJ Brown is great deep.
5:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So theoretically, yeah, it adds up.
5:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It is just, I agree with you.
5:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's difficult to bet on two historic seasons
5:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, okay, so that's not bad.
5:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So you brought in the projection model.
5:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's kick it out there for a little bit.
5:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I should do have one last thing.
5:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Hit me.
5:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The running backs.
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the part that I'm kind of most confused on is everyone loves Henderson.
5:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, all right, he is your next junior Gibbs.
5:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Wait, mom.
5:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
5:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Remodry Stevenson is your next like Montgomery.
5:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I just looking at the
5:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm starting to kind of really lose faith in Henderson.
5:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I think everything coming out of camp is basically like he sucks the past protection.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at the playoffs.
5:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It was pretty much where Mondry Steven was like, 70s of the snacks.
5:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So that part to me was really concerning, and then I took even the deeper look, and it was, like, remontory, you think Trigel Henderson can be a third downback.
6:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Remontory, Stevenson was like 1% lower on target share, but also average, like 4.5 yards more per catch.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the one part that I'm like really questioning now, it's like, is remontedraid, it's remontedraid that goes through God to get in that back.
6:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it was fantasy's getting smarter, because earlier in the spring, it was Anderson was crazy.
6:35
[SPEAKER_01]: His ADP for Mondra, it was like way, way, way down.
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, like crazy, I was like RB25.
6:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And Anderson's like RB27.
6:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think all the people who want to win and don't care about the sex appeal of the Henderson, I've just been seeing that,
6:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Remando is better than Anderson.
6:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I pretty much everything.
6:53
[SPEAKER_01]: He has more explosive.
6:54
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets the great carries.
6:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Anderson just had that Buffalo game.
6:57
[SPEAKER_01]: He had this couple games when Remando was out.
6:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Sealing probably higher, but Remando's floor is going to be awesome.
7:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And it might be another situation where you drop Travian Anderson in the fifth round or whatever.
7:09
[SPEAKER_01]: You play him for three weeks, but he's snapshairs like 30% and he's not getting any catches.
7:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've got to eat them and then maybe you panic drop them or you you bench them and you're playing, you know, restaurant we're led with them.
7:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And meanwhile, reminders just give me 15 fancy points every week.
7:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that is, that's the people that kind of stuck out to me is like, I, that is one person I think I've been fading on recently, it's just, if there are closer games and past protection, it like, it's stupid because it doesn't really come into play with fantasy, but like if you can't protect your quarterback, you're not going to be on the field as much, and I think that's pretty important, especially if you're projecting that the patch aren't going to have as many blowouts or as much garbage time at the end of games, like they're going to need to protect right
7:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And if your QB was seconded at VP of Boating, maybe you got Bryce Young who cares, don't need to pass protect work.
7:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah.
8:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So okay, let's go into that a bit.
8:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the things a buddy of mine hand bone he started doing this a couple years ago, he just locks up the backfield when it's kind of like this.
8:10
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the traditional hand cup where you get CMC and you just trash his RB2 and you're just covered, but you never ever playing the RB2 unless CMG's hurt.
8:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, the new model is you take your trade beyond your take from Andre.
8:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you take our J. Harvey, you take J. K. Dobbins.
8:24
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't cost you that much.
8:26
[SPEAKER_01]: You can even play both in the right matchup, but you're almost hoping one gets hurt so the other gets to go nuclear.
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I think it's a really good strategy, because I hate having to pick what, uh, because, you know, you got a 50% chance to get in screw.
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's valuable on a good team, but I'm not going to do that on the commanders.
8:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, maybe the commanders are good offense.
8:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to do that on a poor team because you're basically doing like New England, good offense, good team.
8:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Honestly, even, who is the other guys you just said?
8:59
[SPEAKER_01]: 10 art be in Davens?
9:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, more diverse with the higher offense.
9:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Like those two are good.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing is you limit upside.
9:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Which, so maybe it's not a best ball strategy, but it's more of a season long where I just, I want this running back, or I want this back, I want the Rams backfield, totally get it.
9:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I would still be starting Kyron every time and probably keeping Koram on the bench, but having both of them great, totally understand, like, I want to be on Stafford, I want the Stafford running back.
9:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you only do it.
9:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You only do it on a lead team within a lead O line, right?
9:33
[SPEAKER_01]: You're investing to get team.
9:34
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't really care.
9:35
[SPEAKER_01]: The running back is you're just making sure you get the RB1 cost you a little draft day, but the insurance club is great.
9:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And you get the like the penthouse ceiling play where, you know, when Dobbins gets hurt, our day Harvey's going to be, you know, going to be awesome.
9:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was last season at the end of season.
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, or like a
9:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I guess San Francisco is the current version of this, but I don't know if you remember back in the day with Pittsburgh Steelers, they always had just a workhorse running back.
10:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Lavy on got hurt, like DeAngelo Williams went in and just went off.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He got hurt.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: James Conner was like, be number one, if you have an offense like that where you know, hey, the backup is just going to take over.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Majority of the work, then like that to me is also super valuable.
10:18
[SPEAKER_00]: where you at least know you're getting a workload that will give you at least fantasy like flex appeal just due to volume, not even if the offense sticks.
10:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so this goes into one of the question I wanted to ask, are there any RB3s that you would take over RB2s?
10:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So for instance, Denver, Jonah Coleman is getting a lot of buzz.
10:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington, K-Tron Allen, right?
10:42
[SPEAKER_01]: In a situation where the RB3 isn't that far behind in the two starting running backs, we're all both kind of battling for position, rather than get maybe just a hill behind Derek Henry or Ray Davis, who likely aren't going to play, but some of these RB3s might be more viable.
11:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think I'm trying to two teams are pop up first of all or like two completely different teams.
11:06
[SPEAKER_00]: One of them is the bills because if James Cook goes down, like James Cook kind of does everything, Tai Johnson gets a lot of the past game work, even with James Cook in.
11:17
[SPEAKER_00]: If cook goes down, that just means tie Johnson's probably like, yeah, Ray Davis, we're going to get the majority of the rushing stuff.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But then tie Johnson will be included even more.
11:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's somebody who I just think might have flexibility to receiving.
11:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the other options more just an upside play like with Tennessee, I guess technically ties in, I say, make a little bit.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like technically Kijae Spears is a number two, but like I don't think like I Pollards of fine RB3 maybe just due to volume, but like Sikleton has the upside if things pop he could go off.
11:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Like so that is I'm more just going for the upside play there versus like Tajay.
11:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, if he plays like I don't really think he's going to be a game changer.
12:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Sikleton could be a league winner.
12:04
[SPEAKER_00]: a big good, like maybe a 3% chance, 2%, but like it's better than nothing.
12:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I actually like spares a lot.
12:12
[SPEAKER_01]: He was like two years ago, I think he had three straight RB1 finishes in the fancy playoffs.
12:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he is dual-thread.
12:18
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got the explosiveness.
12:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just 10 to C's O-line's terrible.
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't like your play calling.
12:23
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there are a full load for me.
12:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not thinking anyone.
12:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's safe.
12:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so let's go another so let's talk about QBs and let's say it's super flex just to give it a little bit more value.
12:33
[SPEAKER_01]: What's your number one thing you're
12:36
[SPEAKER_01]: You want with the key view of dropping like are you you the online you want that great play caller like a Ben Johnson Liam Cohen shanna hand or maybe defense a terrible defense like sincey right so you know you're getting in shootouts.
12:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's see did I have another one.
12:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah well what's here what's like what's the correct here for you that really gets you going because obviously why does he return it's going to be number one.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think in a super flex, I want somebody I want somebody who will produce on the ground, but that's kind of becoming more and more likely like I'd say over 50% of the league, because like Baker may field the threat on the ground.
13:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm not saying he's crazy good, but like he will give you some rushing stats.
13:20
[SPEAKER_01]: That's I don't worry 50 and multiple years or three hundred 50 are.
13:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, as long as they checked the rushing, like I don't really like staffer.
13:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he did great last season.
13:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It was just very much like touchdown.
13:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's such an efficiency was amazing.
13:35
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a reason to want to add him for so good, but half his catches were touchdowns, not actually, but that would have felt.
13:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Six, one here, touchdowns.
13:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like that's insane.
13:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going more rushing capability and then I'm also going, it's a little bit of bad defense,
13:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I, we've not to bring it back to the past, but like the past where the past were kind of a team that broke out because they had the last place schedule and you kind of saw an upper trajectory with them.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're had a pretty easy strength of schedule last season.
14:08
[SPEAKER_00]: So like you, they were supposed to win.
14:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say three or four teams that stick out this year that weren't that good last year.
14:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Cleveland.
14:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I still don't think they're going to be good bangles.
14:23
[SPEAKER_00]: They like, they have a top four easy schedule hammer to which the unfortunate part about the bangles is they also are the bangles.
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So like Joe Vero Chase Higgins, like it's hard to buy low on them.
14:37
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do love I love me some shakes brown in that.
14:40
[SPEAKER_00]: New Orleans and golf or New Orleans not in golf.
14:43
[SPEAKER_00]: New Orleans and deep right are also two teams that have pretty easy strength to schedule.
14:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So golf doesn't isn't really a runner, but one guy that kind of sticks out in that group is Tyler Schuck.
14:54
[SPEAKER_00]: He, he had it's his second year,
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jordan Tyson injury does scare me a little bit, but if he does become healthy, you have two really good receivers.
15:05
[SPEAKER_00]: The Tyson's been going off.
15:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I know you've been upset about that injury.
15:09
[SPEAKER_00]: But Tyson's been going off a lot of his healthy.
15:11
[SPEAKER_00]: They paid him, like, Kalin Moore loves to get the most offensive plays in the league.
15:18
[SPEAKER_00]: He's big on that.
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So there will be volume there in that offense.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So Tyler shock is another guy I'm looking at.
15:25
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of a combination of offense.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: The defense is mad and they're playing an easier schedule.
15:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
15:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:31
[SPEAKER_01]: That's that's that's good.
15:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So another thing I want to talk about, like, what becomes overvalued or because we're also reactionary?
15:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that we were talking about the paths.
15:43
[SPEAKER_01]: There's, because of their schedule, I feel like this is almost now the year of the schedule where it's just like, you know, oh, it's a true, and I do too to try easy schedule, give me all the lines.
15:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a little simplification and over, you know, redundant reduction or something, but does, you know, mean something,
16:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you and since he's second easy schedule like I sometimes I think we just get bored of the super studs like I just think just get Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and take the 40 points a week and if they get hot the fancy playoffs it's over right like obviously if you're in snake and you're graphing eight you're not going to get chase but like I just think maybe this is the year to just go go superstar go super heavy super stud and and just sit back.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but I do think like they're so much fantasy football information out there and everyone's trying to find that small little edge to get on everybody, but that still doesn't like yes we're trying to find the edges, but it's also you have to be wary like.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: that, like, suds or studs, talent is talent, like, is Nick Singleton gonna be a star?
16:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably not.
16:59
[SPEAKER_00]: He's fun talent.
17:00
[SPEAKER_00]: He's fun to think about, but like, yeah, Alvin Kumar is probably going to score more than I mean, he just got hurt, but like,
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: a player like that will like stick to what you know and then use like stick to the studs don't try to overthink it but also use some of that extra insight that we're trying to help you with another people trying to help you with to try and find like to try and diversify a little bit like you don't want to go all safe studs or like all safe players you do want to try to get some upside mixed in and I think that's that's more of what I'm looking to do is
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I need my studs and then I'm going to try and get upside after like, if my stud gets hurt, guess what, my team's probably not linen at all.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I can try my best and I'll start trembling, but like, if you draft a stud, wider fever running back early and they get hurt, it is going to be very difficult for you to win your, I'm not saying this impossible, but I do try to play with that mindset of like, trust the studs that you draft and try to build a team around that.
18:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, if you drafted milk neighbors after in the first round, you were toast unless you also drafted, you know, that that last year's milk neighbors in the 10 year out and I don't When I get tech, they didn't really have a huge wide receiver go off.
18:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, tech was only one that really went off the people are pretty drafted and pretty high for work.
18:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, Boko was great, but only only for the first 12.
18:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
18:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I've done my superplex auction, my big money one coming up next week, and it's like, I want to use be the smartest guy in the room and show all the nuggets and all the stuff I got.
18:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But then I kind of like, maybe I'll just spend a hundred bucks on Jason Burrow.
18:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And then it's just like, it's going to be kind of boring, but like, I'm confident that if they're healthy, I probably make the final.
18:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't say that with that many other combinations.
18:59
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think it's pretty like you're almost going with the stars, like I love auction leads.
19:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I could do a whole, I could do like a whole pot on just auction leads at that point.
19:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You're kind of using the stars and scrubs approach.
19:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, if I were in that case, I would probably then try to get three more quarterbacks on that team.
19:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty cheap like at the end of auctions you always see a bunch of people trying to get the one dollar guy so if you have two dollars to spend it It means that you just outbid a one dollar guy and then everyone else I don't really want to spend three dollars on it because I'm trying to fill a roster that's pretty valuable at the end of auction dress because I
19:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you have 18 rounds in a normal draft or however fifth it's so you have 15 rounds in a normal fantasy draft like A lot of the times at the end of an auction like it's rounds like 11 to 15 all end up being around one to two dollars Yeah
19:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So imagine if you can get a bunch of the round 11 guys and avoid all the round 15 guys on the team.
20:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's pretty valuable.
20:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You're baking in a little bit more off-site and safety just from doing that.
20:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, it is just lean in to, it's also a fancy football's fun.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you want those two players on your team, get a figure it out after.
20:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I do, use a big and tiny, you go.
20:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Hawksons are very easy to be flexible with.
20:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I find that also the problem with the auctions is you fall in love with your team and it's like, I nailed every dollar.
20:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, now I got five guys in the bench.
20:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't drop after week one because I spent, you know, four dollars and I got, you know, we're shot white and I got
20:37
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, Nick Singleton who for a buck, but I want to keep him and invest in on him.
20:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And then after week one, when 12 guys have gotten hurt, and the wires pop in, it's like, I don't have any flexibility.
20:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I treat my last three spots as the one, I will not spend more than a dollar on my three of my bed spots.
20:53
[SPEAKER_01]: because I need to be able to ship, move, you know, guys in and out.
20:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe even after the first game, I know the, the, the, the, the wire will be set, but like, guys get her in practice, like, it seems like the even this summer, it's the most injury plate summer ever, where it's still August 19th, right?
21:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Ricky Purcell, don't forget the season, one of my favorite players.
21:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Thor and Tyson done, like, I feel like I'm cursed.
21:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I met a Bucca, let's say they might not be just, be getting hired to like people on players, I don't like that one.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: No, and I do think it's important to, I mean, not only know yourself, but know who you're drafting events.
21:27
[SPEAKER_00]: You know that if you spend $4 on someone in auction, you might be less likely to drop that person.
21:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So then, okay, you, Jamar Chase, somebody keeps up bidding you with them.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Still get them, spend that extra $4 on them because you'll just end up only meeting the one later for somebody like, know yourself and then also know like, all right, maybe you didn't end up spending out on your stars.
21:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You can probably get up on some really good players for middle-to-year prices because you know everyone else is bidding a crap gun on the stud that they want.
22:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, no, for sure.
22:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so that's enough auction.
22:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go.
22:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk some one of my favorite things.
22:06
[SPEAKER_01]: O lines.
22:07
[SPEAKER_01]: How do we rank them?
22:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the rankings, you know, the people put out because I'm not an O line expert.
22:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I read a bunch of stuff and try and, you know, absorb it.
22:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's like, I'm not going to be sitting there watching O line tape.
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It'd be like, Oh, this lap tackle slow off the, you know, up the Burst off the snap.
22:24
[SPEAKER_01]: because like so you know you got all these websites but like I pulled a couple up some of them are just they're just wildly crazy like this FTN's got the land of Falcons at seven and then Warren Sharps got the Falcons okay he's got him at ten but then PFF has him at 20 like 24
22:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, I just feel like all you to do is take the top four or five in the bottom four or five and everyone else is flexible.
22:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I do think a lot of all, like, I don't know why the first person in six to my mind is Russell Wilson, but like, So a lot of it is QB play.
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Or running back play, it's will your running back actually hit the whole that the offensive line creates will your quarterback not hold on to the ball too much to get sacked like a lot of it is mostly just kind of total offense and I think I've been leaning more into just offences than it is offensive line.
23:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying because, like, I do think it helps, but like- Oh, it's similar to, like, Joe Burrow, like, we always say, like, oh, we keep getting sacked.
23:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He keeps, like, the offensive blinds letting him down.
23:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, when he plays, I still want to piece of that.
23:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't really care at some point.
23:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, how bad that offensive blind might be.
23:57
[SPEAKER_00]: There are teams like the Eagles maybe where it's like they're known for having a good offensive line Cowboys I mean Cowboys kind of were the top tier I think it became Eagles announced a little more spread out on figure yeah yeah
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, a lot of it is Tom Brady's offensive lines were always considered good.
24:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably might have something to do with Tom Brady.
24:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of it is, I'm still leaning on offense over offensive lines.
24:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm trying not to think too much, but I do agree with you.
24:26
[SPEAKER_00]: If I see a bottom five, that's something to stick out.
24:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Or if I see a top five, it's like, okay, I can maybe trust this a little more.
24:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe there's people to, I'll look at the top five and say, hey, are there any running back rooms
24:41
[SPEAKER_00]: like unclear.
24:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's not the right word for it.
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: But like there's a running background where I don't know who the guy's going to be and it's a top five offensive line.
24:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to maybe invest a little bit more in that than I would in a running background where it's kind of a mid to late tier online.
24:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so one is so Tampa, right?
24:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Bucky was a guy I was big on last year after his awesome repeat season.
25:03
[SPEAKER_01]: He'd one rushing catch down last season.
25:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Huge bus for the bigger bus in fantasy, right?
25:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But they were all injured, Tristan worse.
25:09
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the best auto linemen was injured as being a season barely played.
25:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, all these
25:15
[SPEAKER_01]: everyone's ranking air Tampa is the top five O line.
25:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So then shouldn't Bucky be an out a stud.
25:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that I can't gain well to be the passing A, but if you've got a young running back who's proven to be a dual threat and explosive on this young, explosive offense with a great O line, why is a Bucky urban going in the in the third fourth route and not like a fifth six?
25:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, a lot of it is keyboard scarred from last season, which it's hard to take that away.
25:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I still think Marvin Harrison might be good, but like a lot of people are either scarred from last season or they're like, wow, this guy came out as a best-wider superprosper ever.
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He's bound to hit.
25:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I do think some people are just kind of like leaning on their priors and a little bit too much.
26:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where it's, it is nice to kind of look at things, maybe with like,
26:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Clear set of eyes or just try to avoid all the priors that you might know and go in it like like you said yeah, bucky sounds like he's good.
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: It's is he going to have what I'm worried about is like did he earn that full workhorse role?
26:22
[SPEAKER_00]: They brought in Kenny Gainwell who was really good last season and then Sean Tucker also kind of worked him worked his way into more carries.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
26:33
[SPEAKER_00]: and it to me Sean Tucker takes more away from bucky than he does kind of game.
26:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, can a game well seems to be like the new or shot white in that offense pretty clearly.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but I think game well is actually really good.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: It was out right.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I never thought was very good.
26:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but it's just it's just tough.
26:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So another one I want to talk about.
26:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, so have you done any mock drafts?
26:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I've done more best ball and I have mock.
26:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Stay safe.
26:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I consider the same.
26:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Best ball is the elevated mock.
27:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have, let's say 12 team, one QB, 0.5 PPR, free-wide receiver.
27:06
[SPEAKER_01]: That's our format, right?
27:07
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just, would you have a spot you want in snake?
27:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I've been filming videos, I've drafted one at the end, and I've just drafted one at the beginning.
27:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's, you know, that it's just crazy how there's like, 80% of the entire lead.
27:20
[SPEAKER_01]: You never have a shot on it.
27:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean,
27:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to like being more in the middle because I don't yes, I think Jamir gives and I honestly think B John is number one more, but that's I just is often so scared me I'll be honest, but I just feel like it like pick six there's so many.
27:49
[SPEAKER_00]: You get either Puka, Jamar, JSN.
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not in that order, but like, that was a three pretty stud receivers, and then you have B-John and Gits.
28:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I think CMC's up there if he's healthy, but not others do, but all right, so let's say pick five.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Amin Ra is one of the safest always.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Easy, no brand or disc.
28:14
[SPEAKER_00]: catch release.
28:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like I think maybe five depending on how you feel about common rock, like five six is a lot of the time where I want to end up just because I'm getting the end of what I consider to be like top top tier.
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have to pick and then from there it's like all right, I can make choices and I can avoid getting hit with runs.
28:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So like a lot of the times when those 12 team leagues you see a tight end run go.
28:40
[SPEAKER_00]: A QB run go.
28:41
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're at one of the ends you could be
28:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can be waiting 20 picks for the next and as you feel there's no positions.
28:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm worried about Iran other than running back though like the if it's the eight guys before me.
28:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll pick you bees.
28:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like awesome.
28:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I get some super I get you know to pick a stud running back wide receiver like I didn't already have but that's for you about that.
29:06
[SPEAKER_01]: But for me I don't really I'm not one of my pick.
29:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not thinking about my first pick.
29:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm thinking about what it comes back.
29:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, because that we've got that second round running back blood where I feel like if you don't get, you know, let's say dare kind of reason at the end like a chain chase brown dare kind of re can walk or Hampton right if you miss out and one past that I think it's a massive massive like tier break it's like a two three tier break just for traditional scarcity and just talent so all I care about is making sure I get one of those guys leave in the last guy even if it's 10 Walker.
29:41
[SPEAKER_01]: rather than who my first person's going to be.
29:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think in that kind of does leave me more too.
29:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't really want to pick at the end of the first.
29:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Because I think you're stuck with like a bunch of you're stuck probably taking maybe even two running backs in that tier.
29:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And I much rather have like one of the stud receivers
30:02
[SPEAKER_00]: before I'm not saying it drops off a lot, but like I do think there's it like there you have your studs and then there's a bit of a drop off.
30:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So I can either get a stud receiver or one of the stud running backs and not have to pick two people who I think are probably in the same tier.
30:18
[SPEAKER_00]: When if I'm picking a little bit earlier in the round, I can maybe get a top tier guy and then just take
30:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I did know I was I went first or second.
30:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You get the super star then yeah, you miss all these guys But then if you get two more guys who are awesome.
30:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I got like George thickens Then I could take in train McBride, but then I went catering who is I think is is another tier below It's in terms of like there's a leak guys, but it's like Dracking early is is super advantage because those three you get three stars versus somebody getting two stars and then two other good players
30:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I might be an oversimplification, but like, yeah, I'll always love drafting early.
30:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But some times you get that six, and it's like, you're taking a guy you don't really want to take.
31:01
[SPEAKER_01]: But maybe, you know, like, I don't want to have to take CD lamb at eight.
31:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, like, that's that's my nightmare.
31:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I would, but that's why I'm so big on the 18.
31:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll just take 18 eight.
31:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll take 18 seven.
31:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't care.
31:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I love me some 18.
31:13
[SPEAKER_00]: That offense is scary, though.
31:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Looks good and preseason.
31:18
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.
31:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll leave her list of things.
31:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so a couple of other things I want to talk about.
31:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, yeah.
31:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So top 10 offenses.
31:27
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of the one of the big clichés in fantasy.
31:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go, let's just play a, you know, or, you know, those games they do, it's like, how many offenses, how many top 10 offenses you need, I don't even know how it works for like, what's your, but you bet that your life, that this team will be a top 10 offense.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: You go with them, I'll go.
31:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, Chicago.
31:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, Buffalo.
31:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, Dallas, ooh, since he, yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, I guess this even just the run again, but I'm big fading ramps to try.
32:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Whoa.
32:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's no one else I might be bettering my life for.
32:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, okay, so, okay, for then, so we'll see you like that.
32:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm, there's two guys that not to cut out.
32:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll go up.
32:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you got fall in there.
32:30
[SPEAKER_01]: You think about some more?
32:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they're old line rankings are pretty low.
32:34
[SPEAKER_01]: They lost the underbomb, right?
32:35
[SPEAKER_01]: You got Henry 32, Lamar might be eating out new coaching staff.
32:39
[SPEAKER_01]: That's when Doyle's a 30 year old OC.
32:42
[SPEAKER_01]: They got one lighter silver than nobody likes.
32:44
[SPEAKER_01]: They lost likely.
32:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, so you're just saying, it's just Lamar and Henry, just the institutional, like,
32:51
[SPEAKER_01]: knowledge.
32:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty much.
32:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, best quarterback available that I want.
32:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
32:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So for me, what do a Jacksonville?
33:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we had a very tight record for points last season.
33:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a few of those like well coach teams that I think
33:11
[SPEAKER_00]: You could, it's kind of like the next tier, like San Francisco is another team where it's like, I draw.
33:18
[SPEAKER_00]: There's so many injuries, but it's also channel.
33:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Nick Mullins can be a top 10 offense in that, like, with him starting.
33:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, I, I'm not saying the Jacksonville coach is on that same level, but I agree with that.
33:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Detroit, so that we said Detroit.
33:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I did Detroit.
33:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
33:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
33:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't kind of like you.
33:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know why I don't trust it.
33:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't.
33:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's just a good test to see where you're at because one of my favorite things is.
33:53
[SPEAKER_01]: People always just love and don't do the corresponding kind of hate like so like last season my favorite was so we got Ben Johnson, Liam Cohen right Ben Johnson leaves Detroit goes to Chicago, Liam Cohen leaves Arizona to go through Jacksonville right and everyone's like okay well we love Ben Johnson so we like Chicago and then we like Jacksonville but we also still really like Detroit because they kept other players in Tampa there has to be a push pull and while we saw right Chicago Jacksonville struggled early for monsters
34:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Tampa Detroit, both kind of struggled like Detroit fired their O.C.
34:27
[SPEAKER_01]: after week 10, right, because he wasn't giving Davidson Williams a ball Tampa Bay brought in Zach Robinson.
34:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It's so like the O.C.
34:36
[SPEAKER_01]: to brain the brain drain, right?
34:38
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like you how you can't just take the towel and say, whoa, we'll be able to survive this, right?
34:43
[SPEAKER_01]: That's my only word with Miami losing my McKinnell to the chargers chargers.
34:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Another offense we didn't talk about.
34:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But third, it's a long-winded, but my real point is the second year of a great O.C.
34:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's when you want to invest in the team, like Shane Hayne with Atlanta, right Matt Ryan said that he didn't understand the offense of the second year.
35:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, that's why Chicago Jacksonville, I am so high on because the second year with Liam Cron and Ben Johnson, I think they are going to go to the freaking man.
35:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, there's two, I just pull up 20, 25 rankings.
35:18
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a brain drain.
35:19
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a brain drain though, right?
35:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
35:21
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a brain drain.
35:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Colts are the other one where like that last year was, I think, their second year with Stike it.
35:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, yeah, Daniel Jones was a lot of it, but still Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones comes back and is healthy.
35:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like they were the number nine team, Broncos, number 10.
35:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Charlie was the indie first 12 weeks.
35:41
[SPEAKER_01]: They were probably two or three.
35:43
[SPEAKER_00]: probably, yeah.
35:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so it's, it is in giants for number 13.
35:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That's wild to me.
35:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It's sneaky top pen.
35:53
[SPEAKER_01]: If everyone's healthy, they're probably top five.
35:56
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a big yes, but yeah.
35:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, things different in the world.
35:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and he's so, okay, let's have a much, how much longer can you go?
36:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't know.
36:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Yep.
36:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so let's go sneaky offences.
36:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You bet your worst enemies let, no, I don't know what it would be.
36:10
[SPEAKER_01]: But that you could think could crack the top pen.
36:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, obviously I love Miami, but I don't think they're gonna be a top-hand offense, but you know, who do you have?
36:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I would say Tampa, because we got the O-line.
36:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I like the new O-C. A Bucca is my guy, Baker, contract gear.
36:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Game will get the double running backs.
36:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it's just a lot of good markers at this schedule.
36:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just like, it's just positive marker after marker for me.
36:32
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think Tampa, like, I'm all in on Tampa.
36:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think that's a solid one.
36:38
[SPEAKER_00]: One I do like is Minnesota because I mean, if you think like they've had such poor quarterback play last year, and Keppano-Connell, I think it's a coddle, not a codner.
36:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been able to do a good amount with very little.
36:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Kirk rises.
36:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, is Kyler going to be such a benefit?
36:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this is like Loki, and it's a shot in the dark, but is Kyler going to be so much better than last year?
37:06
[SPEAKER_00]: The QB play that like it's just that much better of an offense.
37:09
[SPEAKER_00]: You still have Dremark, not Dremark.
37:11
[SPEAKER_00]: She's still of Justin Jefferson.
37:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's yeah, the comparison date, but it'd be like if you have a kid in the class who's an F minus nobody can get anything done and then you just get a guy who's a C plus it's like oh the class can run smoothly and people can actually do their work.
37:32
[SPEAKER_01]: That, I mean, I learned how to trade.
37:34
[SPEAKER_00]: See, flies, I think it's, it's almost like, I've been playing way too much basketball recently, but it's almost like, if you have such a, like, one player that's so bad on your team on defense, your defense is gonna suck.
37:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you just, you go against that guy every time, it's an easy bucket.
37:51
[SPEAKER_00]: If you have, if that f is then turned into a C, then it's like you're not just attacking one person the whole time.
37:57
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not finding that one loophole every time that you can exploit.
38:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you have to find a little bit more, and then when you have a coach that's that good, in my opinion, I think you can really, it's almost like multiplying a fact where you can bring up the floor so much higher.
38:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so what do you so what are we talking about with Kyler then like what do you what do you have man's per dead projections like 400 yards.
38:22
[SPEAKER_01]: What's it touchdowns are these at 25 or it's definitely not 35, but I'm just saying if you have Jefferson getting 10.
38:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's eight.
38:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got Jennings get a couple.
38:33
[SPEAKER_01]: You might get you know, Jones and then the Hawkins and I you know, what is what is Kyler need to do to make that a top and often.
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Does he just need to throw
38:44
[SPEAKER_00]: May I don't think that's a poor.
38:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I have them projected off last season with a lot of kind of meme reversion, which is probably not the best, but if guy that runs about the feed runs are good amount, I don't like I only have him passing as an off end for only 3300 yards.
39:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
39:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
39:06
[SPEAKER_01]: That's half the Jefferson.
39:07
[SPEAKER_01]: That's crazy.
39:07
[SPEAKER_01]: That's.
39:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
39:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then like, I mean, Jefferson I only have like 1100.
39:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, they're earth projected well just because last year's it's hard to get last year's stink off of the projections.
39:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you're giving me somebody that I think could pop, that's it.
39:24
[SPEAKER_00]: It's more like the upside here.
39:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the upside's there that I can't really
39:34
[SPEAKER_00]: to be potentially, like, sneak in the top.
39:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Tap.
39:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, no, no, definitely.
39:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good pick.
39:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, you know, just Kyle is just gross, but because the O line, I think was bottom five last year, a lot of having popped 12, right?
39:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I think a Christian Derosaw healthy.
39:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that, you know, they haven't stabilized it, but you, you know, I was just such a wild card.
39:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, what's the run pass?
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be, are they going to try and be a 50, 50 team and have Mason Bruce up all set at the play action, so we can hit Jefferson or
40:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm hoping it's just close to like an average offensive split, which is probably like 54 or 56, 54% pass, 56 rushing, that is, there yeah, 46, yeah, that is pretty much average.
40:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe slightly less than average towards the rushing, just because Kyler kind of increases that a little, I'm not trying to have them reinvent the wheel.
40:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think there is an upside play where if everything clicks, I don't know how much money I bet on it, but I think they could hit it.
40:44
[SPEAKER_00]: The running back room does kind of scare me like no one really
40:49
[SPEAKER_00]: They have a bunch of like above average, not a bunch.
40:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They have, I think, two above average running backs, no real difference makers.
40:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, maybe they're more average in Mason and Jones now, then maybe Clayborn is something I'm not gonna bet on it, but.
41:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Mason is a stud.
41:06
[SPEAKER_01]: He's top five must draft player for me.
41:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's totally mispriced.
41:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I, you know, I won't leave.
41:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I won't leave any draft without Jordan Mason.
41:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's he's just going to dominate.
41:15
[SPEAKER_01]: He's had problems saying healthy, but his yards per carry is great.
41:17
[SPEAKER_01]: His explosiveness is great.
41:19
[SPEAKER_01]: He's perfectly in the red zone and goldable situations.
41:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he doesn't catch the ball, but, you know,
41:26
[SPEAKER_01]: for where he's going like a RB 40 45 no brainer just a quickly if you're watching if you made it this long give us a like on YouTube subscribe drop a comment see if you're using Brian's protection model tell him tell me which players totally out of whack um but uh okay that's move out of Minnesota let's just hit a couple more things before we go and one of the things I was one maybe talking about um our passing touchdowns kind of in decline
41:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Because we've just seen the teams no longer like my home.
41:54
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never getting 50 again.
41:55
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets 25 again.
41:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Josh Allen doesn't get 35 anymore.
41:58
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets 25.
41:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, it's season, right?
42:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Lamar is average, it's January 25.
42:03
[SPEAKER_01]: He had the 41.
42:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Stafford had that 46.
42:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Our team just not airing it out as like for the explosive as much.
42:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And if the someone does, so like if DAC or bro have 35 to 40, is that an outlier production going to pull your fantasy team
42:22
[SPEAKER_00]: When yeah, I do think Dak and Burro are probably the two that come to mind of like they could betting on them.
42:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for the top passing touchdown in the league goes I guess them to and staffer to probably, I don't know what I had Stafford, but yeah, but just given last season, like they're probably pretty high in the rankings to lead in betting or whatever you're looking at to lead the league and passing touchdowns, I think it's just so cyclical like we
42:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw the point where like the league just feels like it's getting bigger again, like everyone, look at the, and look at the draft, like people are draft and blocking tight ends in the third round.
43:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So for a campers now, yeah, like people just think.
43:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's more of where it's leading, and then I almost want to look at the defenses and how they're choosing to adapt, because the defenses got smaller whenever one started using the spread.
43:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So you'd see like nickel cornerbacks were almost based defense before it was like a four, three where you have three actual linebackers.
43:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we ever going to get back to the point where we're putting more linebackers on the field?
43:33
[SPEAKER_00]: That's when I think you'll see offense is more open it up.
43:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So it does feel like we're kind of in the in between of like a lot of teams are really going in on this big person now.
43:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Will we start seeing defenses catch up?
43:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And then once they do,
43:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the the first person who's the extra everyone's zagging is going to be the team that gets ahead.
43:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't I think it's probably two more seasons before we start seeing like a real change.
44:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going back to like kind of airing it out more and spreading everything out because.
44:11
[SPEAKER_00]: like I feel like linebackers nowadays are pretty much now like what your cam chancellor used to be where it's like a hard hitting strong safety where they're serviceable and coverage but now those are your linebackers and then you still have your stud athletes so who's gonna be able to go big and just run all over teams and then will they will that running offense be able to keep up with other offences if they're bit more
44:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Passively.
44:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
44:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think this is the year that things transition back to like the big passing again.
44:43
[SPEAKER_01]: No, because also you need that proof of concept, right?
44:45
[SPEAKER_01]: We've just seen KC led the way.
44:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They pivoted towards the ball control and then Buffalo saw that.
44:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like Josh Allen, I'll leave the league in, you know, interceptions in the good way, rather than the bad way, which he does.
44:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, even in Baltimore, right?
45:01
[SPEAKER_01]: She's run heavy ball control offense, Philly, right?
45:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Perfect, right?
45:04
[SPEAKER_01]: One thing that precedes and apparently,
45:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Shotgun rates are way down, all right, because a lot of these TVs don't like to especially Burrow doesn't like to go under Santa here, like in terms of back to the defense, but apparently a shotgun rates will way way down.
45:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The lot under center, that could be open up more play action, and then it's especially for Burrow, right?
45:23
[SPEAKER_01]: If Burrow is through more play action than this under center, but with case brown, that is very appealing to me.
45:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It just I hate having some an expert podcast and saying go buy sincey put like I really think they might just have a historic season Like bro could break the past that single season pass and touch on record this season if it you know if everyone stays healthy And I do think one thing to keep in mind is when you're seeing these teams go more heavy personnel Is a lot of times when you go more heavy personnel that everyone's like oh more tight ends on the field more tight ends and play a lot of it is just
45:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We are really scheming up one or two wider seabers.
46:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you look at the Eagles offense from previous seasons, it's like three people had high target shares.
46:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone else was kind of like pretty low.
46:11
[SPEAKER_00]: It was either we're targeting AJ Brown, DevOps assessment, or the title, and got it.
46:16
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
46:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think you could start seeing a bit more concept like with the spread off ends it can be a bit more separated out in target shares if like ram's last season.
46:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a lot of Puka it was a lot of add-ons and then it was just kind of a bunch of like four to eight percent target share getters on that team.
46:38
[SPEAKER_00]: No, they ran a ton of tripritite end, right?
46:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
46:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So is the head of the head of the game?
46:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there it was all concentrated on one or two guys and I do think that is valuable for fantasy if you know who the guy is if you think that sort of that system is like that is kind of a new system.
46:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So like with Clint Cooby act right we talked about the last spot that Jason 36% if he brings that over to Vegas and Brock powers is like a 30% 33% target share.
47:06
[SPEAKER_01]: He made destroy leagues because he's in the score 10 more crazy points for the tight end too.
47:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
47:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think that's very fair to look at.
47:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it looks like the jags are trying to do that, too.
47:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The issue is they have three wider sewers, three and a half of the count hunter, like that are actually pretty good to like, yeah, are you really going to take your best players off the field?
47:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
47:29
[SPEAKER_00]: But they drafted a blocking tight end in the third and then like another tight end right after, like, oh, out.
47:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And they still have strange, I think.
47:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a really good point.
47:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, it's just interesting
47:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd like to say like watch what teams are doing and what their transactions show and like Jaguar transactions show, we want to go big.
47:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, okay, I think we're going to, we're going to go and take a minute.
47:56
[SPEAKER_01]: See you at any last last point, last anything, although it's something we didn't cover.
48:00
[SPEAKER_01]: You wanted to get out before we wrap up.
48:02
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I mean, like I said earlier, like I'm not trying to change the model too much on this second round and one thing that did stick out, which you'll love to hear is like Millique Willis was I think like Q B6 yeah yeah I'm just worried the hype like I don't I don't want to pay 25 bucks for them in my super flex auction.
48:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see quarterback I guess it's soup I've never had a super flex auction, but I pretty easy I can see that yeah, but then you can get super cheap flex people for
48:33
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, it's great.
48:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's it year to year, the it's the various isn't saying so you've got to find out right away our people overpaying or they waiting to get get guys late and then you just got to adjust by that.
48:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that super flex in general, I feel like is either like even in a snake draft, you get like 20 quarterbacks in the first two rounds or you get like 10.
48:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it's a lot of Buffalo people because we were Toronto so Bill fans are like, gosh, I'll just you don't even think about getting Josh Allen.
49:03
[SPEAKER_00]: That's fair.
49:04
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like you got to do a quiet deal, right?
49:05
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to pay that and have back money on the back end.
49:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, that's gonna do for us.
49:10
[SPEAKER_01]: If you guys stuck around, that is awesome.
49:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you check out the draft guide that's worth these those.
49:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Check out Brian's rejection model.
49:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It is thoughtful and goodies.
49:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully we'll do this again soon because we got what?
49:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Three, what is it?
49:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Four Sundays?
49:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I never count.
49:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Keep track of that.
49:25
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can see the start a little bit later, just due to Labor Day being a little later.
49:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's actually out of the Wednesday.
49:30
[SPEAKER_01]: It's because it was crazy, which I don't hate.
49:32
[SPEAKER_01]: But we will be back soon.
49:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So take this thought and give us a like and subscribe and anything else.
49:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks, Brian.