Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - This is ALWAYS What Happens Right Before Everything COLLAPSES + Stock Market News 05 September 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - This is ALWAYS What Happens Right Before Everything COLLAPSES + Stock Market News 05 September 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I wasn't going to make this video because I'm traveling, but the data points that just came out are so important.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I think you need to understand this, you need to know this, you need to know how to prepare for what is actually coming.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Let me hit you through a few data points and an interpretation of it all.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: The way that, say, an investment bank meeting would run in the morning, which is what I used to sit in at 7 am.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Just look at the pure data here.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Us companies just announced that they created only 1400 jobs in August.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: That's the lowest for an August since 2009, which was the height of the global financial crisis and layoffs are up 39%.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: It means the economy appears to be finally slowing.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Is that a good thing for stocks?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Well, you might scream, we're going to get rate cuts and that might be wonderful, but if rate cuts come because the economy is faltering, then that is definitely not a good thing.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: And then here is something that very few people understand, except for the bond trading nutters, and there are very few loons who really do that.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Well, the Japan 30 year bond yield is exploding.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: That sounds incredibly dull, but it's incredibly important.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: It means that the interest rate paid for japanese bonds is the highest it's ever been.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: The same you can be seen in the United Kingdom.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: It means it's higher borrowing costs.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Now, higher borrowing costs does what it slows down the economy.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Think about it from a personal level.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Say you got a mortgage that's flexible, a car payment that's on a variable interest and so on.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: You now have less money, so you're going to spend less money.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So your company?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Well, you're going to build less buildings, you're going to buy less machinery, you're going to do less expansion because it's more expensive to do so.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: But secondly, for us selfish investors, it also means that stocks are less attractive.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Because if I can get more interest guaranteed returns from government bonds and I believe that governments don't go bust then stocks are relatively less attractive because I can get higher guaranteed returns in the bond market.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So this is very important to understand.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: And at the same time and there is something else very few people understand and, by the way, if you don't understand this fully, it's completely fine, it's normal.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It means you probably have friends.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: But if you actually want to gain more control of your financial freedom path in your retirement, maybe you want to pull that forward.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe you want to get out of that cubicle, or maybe you just want to retire better and earlier and do beautiful things for yourself and your family and what you actually want to be doing with your life.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Then understanding how money actually works, understanding when is a good time to buy something, when is a good time to sell something is actually crucial.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: And yes, you should have been taught this at school and at university.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: But there is an entire industry Wall Street that quite likes that.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: You don't know what is going on fully, because it means they make a lot of money on fees.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: If you want to change that rather unfair setup, I'm going to run a live training for you next week and you can sign up for that at phoenixfriendsorg slash training and I'm going to teach you for about an hour and a half two hours.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Firstly, motivation, because motivation is nine tenths of the game and actually winning.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I've learned that from teaching 20,000 people.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Then the actual rules that I learned from my Wall Street mentors about breakout stocks, how to take profits, how to avoid large losses and all that good stuff.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I give you those rules.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: There'll be about 2,000 seats or thereabouts.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: You can grab yourself one of those seats for free at felixfriendsorg training.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: But let's just get back to the oh-so-exciting sexy bond market.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: There is something called bond move, which is the fear of the bond market traders.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The ticker symbol is MOVE, m-o-v-e.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: You can look that up and that went up tremendously yesterday.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: No-transcript, but it is usually good news for the gold market.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Now maybe you don't own any gold.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Well, I've been spouting about certain gold miners for a while and I think there is a potential for another leg up there.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: But there is more bad news on this beautiful day here in Malaysia, and it is buybacks.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: There is a cycle to buybacks.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Now what is a buyback?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Companies buy their own stock.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Why do they do that?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: They have more cash than they know what to do with.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Say, you're Apple, you can't invest all that money, so you buy your own shares and it means there are less shares out there.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: It's meant to elevate the value of the remaining shares and it's therefore a way to return money to shareholders.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: It's pretty tax efficient, better than dividends usually a way to return money to shareholders.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It's pretty tax efficient, better than dividends usually.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Now, from September 15th and take note of this date, and there's a mount coming, we're going to lose about $1.5 billion of daily buyback buying, and that just means that the biggest buyer on Wall Street of stocks is going on a holiday from the 15th of September and that happens every quarter because of earnings and it's going to come back online sometime after that, and you can see in the chart here that I hopefully put on the screen for you the timing of that Again, something very few would understand.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: You now do so.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Take care of all the value out there, and then you're going to get hit with.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Today, all that data around jobs data and all that interpretation and the fear and the panic and the hope about rate cuts.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: What do we actually want?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Well, you could say I want a very slow job market, because that way we're going to get a big rate cut from the Fed.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: But if you have a very slow job market and the data is real, which means you actually are not creating jobs in the US, it means the economy is slowing and that means recession fears will be back, and then you're going to get rate cuts because of recession fears, which are not good rate cuts they're bad rate cuts.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So what we really want is the job market to do all right not too wonderfully, but also not terribly and that way we're going to get some smaller rate cuts more gradually and this mythical soft landing that Chair Powell has been promising us for years will actually be here, which will be the sweet spot for stocks.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So if you see job numbers are terrible today, then Some people are going to say that's going to be very good news because we're going to get big rate cuts and the market might love that for the moment, but I do think it would then sell off.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: That's my personal opinion.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So we kind of want that soft sweet spot Not too high, not too low, just somewhere in the middle.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: That's kind of my rule here.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I hope you have a beautiful day while we are.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Can you see that Beautiful Malaysia there behind me?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: I'll show you the lovely Petronas Towers as well, which is probably the most.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Do you remember that from?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: What was that?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Mission Impossible or something?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Those towers up there, incredible piece of architecture actually.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: As we enjoy this beautiful country and all I really want to say to you is focus less on the news and focus more on the knowledge, because that's how we actually make money.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: The news make you emotional.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: The news make you do stuff because you're fearful.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: It gives you FOMO, it gives you panic, it gives you all that good stuff that makes wall street money, but it makes you very little money.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So you want to have a plan, you want to have rules, you want to know before you buy something where you're going to sell it.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to help you tan with that If you join me at the live training felixrunsorg slash training, and if you want to understand a little bit more about the cycle, I put out a video a day or two ago on the cycle and how that really works, and I did a whole presentation on that.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I'd recommend you check that out.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I'll link to it somewhere around here and I wish you all the best.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Take care.