Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / What a Week! Primary Election MADNESS and Spider-Man DOMINANCE

Transcript

What a Week! Primary Election MADNESS and Spider-Man DOMINANCE · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  It's my 3rd show of the day.
• 0:03
  You gotta understand.
• 0:04
  Uh,
• 0:04
  I had Megyn Kelly,
• 0:05
  uh,
• 0:05
  earlier today.
• 0:06
  It was a great,
• 0:06
  uh,
• 0:07
  show.
• 0:07
  Make sure to check that one out.
• 0:09
  Uh,
• 0:09
  Stu and Dave do America,
• 0:10
  now doing Predictable with Stu,
• 0:12
  and I'm doing this,
• 0:13
  uh,
• 0:13
  live stream for the,
• 0:14
  uh,
• 0:15
  wonderful people over at Substacks,
• 0:16
  which you can access this month for free.
• 0:18
  Uh,
• 0:18
  and,
• 0:18
  you know,
• 0:19
  they get to see me screw up when I can't,
• 0:20
  I trip over my words over and over again and start over.
• 0:22
  So that's where we are.
• 0:23
  Uh,
• 0:23
  that's,
• 0:24
  that's life right now,
• 0:25
  and I'm happy about it because tomorrow
• 0:27
  we've got 5 different primaries,
• 0:29
  5 of them.
• 0:30
  You know how many opportunities there are to make some money on this,
• 0:33
  on these elections and their outcomes.
• 0:35
  Also,
• 0:35
  it's gonna give us a great sense as to
• 0:38
  who's going to win.
• 0:39
  And who's going to lose.
• 0:40
  So we'll get into that.
• 0:41
  We have some great stuff on Spider-Man and the box office returns there.
• 0:45
  You can participate
• 0:46
  in their box office returns if you,
• 0:48
  if,
• 0:48
  if you're at the right scenario,
• 0:50
  we'll get into that.
• 0:51
  And we have some great questions from you,
• 0:53
  uh,
• 0:53
  your comments as well.
• 0:54
  We did a,
• 0:55
  a premium subscriber live chat last night with lots of great thoughts,
• 0:58
  lots of great recommendations on new markets and stuff like that.
• 1:00
  We'll get into that here in just a little bit.
• 1:02
  Thanks for joining us.
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  You can always join us on YouTube as well,
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  youtube.com/atpredictable
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  with Stu.
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  on Predictable.
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  Go to predictableShow.com and put your email address in.
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  By the way,
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  if you're not a subscriber,
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  uh,
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  I mean,
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  you might wanna just do it for at least the initial email.
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  Why?
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  Because in that initial email
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  up,
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  uh,
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  give you a copy of the Constitution.
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  the 16 amendments to the predictable Constitution.
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  This is all free if you just go and,
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• 2:09
  OK,
• 2:09
  lots of primaries are coming up.
• 2:11
  Let me give you the schedule.
• 2:12
  I'm gonna look ahead a little bit here,
• 2:14
  and we're gonna look at what we can get done tomorrow,
• 2:16
  August 4th.
• 2:17
  We have Kansas,
• 2:18
  Michigan,
• 2:19
  Missouri,
• 2:20
  Virginia,
• 2:21
  and Washington.
• 2:22
  Then the very,
• 2:23
  uh,
• 2:24
  this is like when,
• 2:24
  uh,
• 2:24
  we get late in the NFL season,
• 2:25
  they start putting games on like Wednesdays for some reason.
• 2:28
  We have the Thursday,
• 2:29
  August 6th primary in Tennessee.
• 2:31
  We have the August 8th,
• 2:33
  the Saturday,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:34
  primary in Hawaii,
• 2:36
  and then August 11th is a week away,
• 2:38
  another really big week.
• 2:39
  Connecticut,
• 2:39
  Minnesota,
• 2:40
  Vermont,
• 2:40
  Wisconsin,
• 2:41
  and South Carolina,
• 2:43
  that special US Senate Republican primary that because of Lindsey Graham
• 2:46
  passing away.
• 2:47
  That's what we have
• 2:48
  to look forward to.
• 2:48
  And we have,
• 2:49
  you know,
• 2:49
  a bunch of races.
• 2:51
  It's kind of,
• 2:52
  there's one way to look at this,
• 2:53
  right?
• 2:54
  You can look at it from a perspective of,
• 2:57
  uh,
• 2:58
  you know,
• 2:58
  how are we gonna learn about the,
• 3:00
  the election and what's coming up because that's,
• 3:02
  you know,
• 3:02
  look,
• 3:02
  it's,
• 3:03
  as much as I like
• 3:04
  going on prediction markets and making money on prediction markets,
• 3:06
  it's not gonna be the most important thing.
• 3:07
  The most important thing
• 3:09
  is what happens to the country,
• 3:10
  and,
• 3:10
  uh,
• 3:10
  that's what we watch most closely here.
• 3:13
  Uh,
• 3:13
  but we do want to look for those opportunities.
• 3:15
  So,
• 3:15
  when you talk about a race like,
• 3:17
  um,
• 3:17
  maybe the most,
• 3:18
  one of the most important races in the country right now,
• 3:19
  we're gonna talk about this in a second,
• 3:21
  the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is a massive one.
• 3:24
  And there's all sorts of,
• 3:25
  uh,
• 3:26
  all sorts of,
• 3:26
  uh,
• 3:27
  different ramifications from that.
• 3:28
  And then the other side we'll look for markets that just,
• 3:30
  you know,
• 3:31
  look,
• 3:31
  might not be as interesting to the everyday person,
• 3:33
  but a place an opportunity
• 3:35
  for you to make a little money on prediction markets.
• 3:37
  So,
• 3:38
  let's start with this Michigan Senate primary race.
• 3:40
  We've done a decent amount of coverage on this,
• 3:42
  and this is a,
• 3:43
  it's a big one.
• 3:45
  This is,
• 3:46
  of course,
• 3:46
  the,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:48
  Abdul El Sayed versus Haley Stevens race.
• 3:52
  And what a roller coaster ride
• 3:54
  this has been.
• 3:56
  If you go,
• 3:56
  this is like the main,
• 3:58
  um,
• 3:58
  sort of,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 4:00
  outline of this race,
• 4:01
  which has,
• 4:02
  uh,
• 4:03
  Mallory,
• 4:03
  Mallory McMorrow leading from,
• 4:05
  I don't know,
• 4:06
  fall 2025
• 4:08
  to April 2026.
• 4:10
  Now she's not even in the race anymore.
• 4:13
  She was leading all that time.
• 4:14
  Now she's not even in the race.
• 4:15
  She's dropped out.
• 4:16
  The two candidates that are big names
• 4:18
  that are left are Abdul El Sayed and Haley Stevens.
• 4:21
  Uh,
• 4:22
  Abdul El Sayed,
• 4:23
  uh,
• 4:24
  took that lead in April or May
• 4:26
  and has held it and was getting as high as like the mid to high 80s.
• 4:32
  Uh,
• 4:32
  and then had a couple around the time where we had,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:35
  their debates,
• 4:36
  there were a couple of polls that came out in,
• 4:37
  in a recent poll,
• 4:38
  only a couple of weeks ago,
• 4:40
  had Haley Stevens up
• 4:41
  by 7%.
• 4:43
  And you see how that race tightened and the
• 4:46
  prediction markets as we're looking at the chart.
• 4:47
  Give me the last,
• 4:48
  uh,
• 4:48
  month or so here,
• 4:49
  Adam,
• 4:49
  if we could on this chart.
• 4:51
  Um,
• 4:51
  so this is what it looked like.
• 4:52
  You see,
• 4:53
  go back to the beginning of this,
• 4:54
  you see,
• 4:55
  uh,
• 4:55
  you know,
• 4:56
  early July.
• 4:57
  Um,
• 4:58
  70,
• 4:59
  or actually 85% for Abudul El Sayyed.
• 5:03
  It kind of narrows down together a little bit as we follow the line,
• 5:06
  follow the line down to 66% for El Sayed,
• 5:10
  pops back up in El Sayyed's favor more,
• 5:12
  back to 82.9%,
• 5:13
  and drops down again
• 5:15
  to 64.4%.
• 5:18
  Haley Stevens.
• 5:18
  36% chance.
• 5:20
  And this is,
• 5:20
  I would say how it's being presented in the media,
• 5:22
  uh,
• 5:22
  as a really close call.
• 5:23
  You see now,
• 5:25
  however,
• 5:25
  Abdul El Sayyed
• 5:26
  has risen all the way up to now 98.4%
• 5:31
  a day before this primary.
• 5:33
  Now,
• 5:33
  I will tell you,
• 5:34
  and then we've talked about this a little bit before,
• 5:36
  I recommended,
• 5:36
  uh,
• 5:36
  El Sayed as the guy,
• 5:38
  um,
• 5:38
  a while ago.
• 5:40
  I got a little nervous about that,
• 5:42
  frankly,
• 5:42
  over time.
• 5:42
  I didn't make a huge position on Abdul El Sayed,
• 5:45
  but I did have him,
• 5:46
  um,
• 5:47
  as a,
• 5:47
  a,
• 5:47
  a,
• 5:48
  a favorite,
• 5:49
  um,
• 5:49
  and held him through a lot of these ups and downs,
• 5:52
  but didn't grow my position all that much.
• 5:54
  I will be honest with you,
• 5:56
  yesterday,
• 5:57
  I sold
• 5:58
  all my shares
• 5:59
  in Abdul El Sayed.
• 6:01
  Why?
• 6:02
  There's just nothing left.
• 6:03
  I mean,
• 6:04
  I rode that thing up 2030 points,
• 6:06
  and now it's at 97.
• 6:08
  And while I still believe Abdul Sayed will probably win this election,
• 6:12
  there have been multiple polls.
• 6:13
  Do I have them here in front of me?
• 6:15
  Uh,
• 6:16
  did I pull those polls?
• 6:18
  I think I did.
• 6:20
  I did somewhere.
• 6:20
  Let's see if I can find them real quick.
• 6:22
  Uh,
• 6:23
  yeah,
• 6:23
  here we go.
• 6:23
  Um,
• 6:24
  the average now,
• 6:25
  uh,
• 6:26
  uh,
• 6:27
  Decision desk has it at
• 6:28
  a 53 to 40 average,
• 6:31
  uh,
• 6:31
  of the poll.
• 6:31
  And I don't know if that,
• 6:32
  that's if the 7-point Haley Stevens lead is in that average because that was,
• 6:37
  uh,
• 6:37
  that was a few weeks ago.
• 6:38
  But I mean,
• 6:39
  this race has moved a lot,
• 6:40
  is my point,
• 6:41
  and it moved so much that people are basically 100% certain,
• 6:44
  98.4% certain
• 6:45
  that he is going to win
• 6:47
  this race.
• 6:48
  I would not recommend
• 6:50
  going into this market on Al Sayed at this point.
• 6:53
  I think it is now at the level where it is so positive for El Sayed
• 6:58
  that there's just no profit there.
• 7:00
  I rode this up,
• 7:01
  we,
• 7:01
  we rode this up a couple dozen points,
• 7:02
  whatever it was,
• 7:03
  uh,
• 7:03
  and then we sold the shares yesterday.
• 7:06
  I sold every single one of them at 97.
• 7:08
  Uh,
• 7:08
  because I,
• 7:09
  I just didn't see,
• 7:09
  you know,
• 7:10
  the last 3 points not really worth it.
• 7:11
  I,
• 7:11
  this race is still presented as a pretty close one.
• 7:14
  And while I don't think,
• 7:17
  Uh,
• 7:17
  Al Sayed's going to lose.
• 7:18
  I will say this,
• 7:20
  uh,
• 7:20
  and Decision Desk has a great graphic here
• 7:23
  right there
• 7:24
  of,
• 7:24
  uh,
• 7:24
  of what the spending and ad support has been in this race.
• 7:27
  This is incredible.
• 7:28
  Abdul Sayed has spent $7.3 million
• 7:30
  OK?
• 7:31
  It's a decent amount of cash for a Senate race.
• 7:33
  Other candidates have put $9.7 million into this race.
• 7:36
  I assume that's mostly McMorrow.
• 7:39
  Haley Stevens,
• 7:40
  you know,
• 7:41
  she's been,
• 7:41
  and this has been a topic of all the debates.
• 7:42
  She's got AIPAC support and all the establishment support,
• 7:45
  $63.9 million.09 times,
• 7:50
  9 times,
• 7:51
  9 times as much money
• 7:54
  has gone in for Haley Stevens.
• 7:55
  So the fact that she could be
• 7:57
  competitive in this race would not be a huge surprise.
• 7:59
  I mean,
• 7:59
  98% certainty is too certain
• 8:02
  in this race for me.
• 8:04
  What I'm gonna say next
• 8:06
  is a,
• 8:06
  is a,
• 8:07
  is,
• 8:08
  is an interesting thing that I like to do.
• 8:10
  I've made a decent amount of profit on El Sayed already.
• 8:13
  I look at this race now and I see
• 8:15
  Haley Stevens,
• 8:16
  who's had tons and tons of money put behind her.
• 8:19
  This has been a close race the entire time.
• 8:21
  There was a poll where she led by 7 points just a couple of weeks ago.
• 8:25
  The question now is,
• 8:27
  can she at least look competitive?
• 8:30
  For 20 minutes.
• 8:32
  Polls close,
• 8:33
  you get about a 20-minute gap there where people are votes are coming in
• 8:36
  and it could be a certain batch that's a little more favorable to Stevens.
• 8:39
  Let's just say we're 10% of the vote in and Haley Stevens is
• 8:42
  up by 2%,
• 8:43
  down by 2%,
• 8:44
  right there,
• 8:45
  competitive.
• 8:46
  There's no way
• 8:48
  that's sticking at 1%
• 8:49
  during that time.
• 8:50
  And if I can get in
• 8:51
  with a little bit of my profit,
• 8:53
  take a little slice out of that,
• 8:54
  and dabble in,
• 8:56
  yes,
• 8:56
  pro Haley Stevens money here.
• 8:59
  We're talking
• 8:59
  buying her at 1 cent,
• 9:01
  $1.5
• 9:03
  you know,
• 9:03
  you can get 1000 shares for $10.15 dollars.
• 9:07
  And,
• 9:08
  you know,
• 9:08
  what we always say here is when we do things like this,
• 9:10
  cause I don't necessarily think she's gonna win this race,
• 9:12
  and I don't
• 9:13
  typically like taking positions that
• 9:16
  If I'm not around my computer,
• 9:17
  I have to worry about,
• 9:18
  right?
• 9:18
  I like to take positions that,
• 9:20
  that will resolve correctly at the end.
• 9:21
  I'm not
• 9:23
  super confident that Haley's Stevens is gonna win this race by any means.
• 9:25
  This is not me saying
• 9:26
  she's gonna win.
• 9:27
  But
• 9:28
  is there a chance that you could get in there and if,
• 9:30
  if things fall the right way,
• 9:31
  they probably won't.
• 9:33
  But if they do,
• 9:34
  can that 1.4% purchase turn into 578 cents,
• 9:40
  10 cents,
• 9:41
  20 cents?
• 9:43
  It's possible.
• 9:44
  And what I would do in this situation is something we call laddering.
• 9:48
  If you buy at 1 cent,
• 9:49
  let's say you buy it $1.5.
• 9:51
  Uh,
• 9:51
  the easiest way to think about this is to
• 9:53
  immediately put a sale for half of your shares
• 9:56
  at 3 cents.
• 9:57
  And,
• 9:58
  uh,
• 9:59
  why?
• 9:59
  Because if it goes up to 3 just for a second,
• 10:02
  your shares get purchased and you pay for that
• 10:04
  entire investment and now you're playing with house money.
• 10:06
  OK?
• 10:07
  If you don't know what I'm talking about,
• 10:10
  don't worry about it.
• 10:11
  You're,
• 10:11
  you know,
• 10:11
  you don't need to.
• 10:12
  This is sort of an
• 10:13
  advanced
• 10:14
  fun tactic.
• 10:16
  You can totally not participate in this if you,
• 10:18
  if you want,
• 10:18
  but
• 10:19
  if you don't want to participate in it,
• 10:20
  that's fine.
• 10:20
  But what I would say to people who maybe have,
• 10:22
  have dabbled in this world a little bit already,
• 10:24
  you buy about 1 cent,
• 10:25
  $1.5
• 10:27
  you wait for those things,
• 10:28
  those,
• 10:28
  those,
• 10:29
  uh,
• 10:29
  the floodgates of votes to come out.
• 10:31
  We hope for an early return.
• 10:33
  A lot of times,
• 10:33
  the more progressive areas are a little slower to return.
• 10:36
  And uh we see that in cities often,
• 10:39
  where the cities are a little slower to return.
• 10:40
  If we get some of those more rural,
• 10:42
  middle of the road areas to return,
• 10:44
  maybe Stevens leads for a little while,
• 10:46
  that thing pops up a little bit,
• 10:48
  and you could double,
• 10:49
  triple,
• 10:49
  quadruple your amount,
• 10:50
  who knows?
• 10:51
  So,
• 10:52
  Just a little thing to think about if you're looking to be a little playful.
• 10:55
  If you wanna get a little spicy
• 10:57
  with Haley Stevens,
• 10:58
  which again,
• 10:59
  sounds weird,
• 11:00
  but,
• 11:00
  you know,
• 11:00
  that's,
• 11:01
  that's what this show is.
• 11:02
  You're watching a show about prediction markets,
• 11:03
  you're weird too.
• 11:04
  You're part of the problem.
• 11:06
  I hope you recognize that.
• 11:07
  OK.
• 11:08
  So by the way,
• 11:09
  if you uh want to watch,
• 11:10
  uh,
• 11:10
  so tomorrow,
• 11:11
  we,
• 11:11
  we don't have a normal episode on these big primary days.
• 11:14
  What we'll typically do is do live streams of the results in place of that.
• 11:18
  So join us over there tomorrow.
• 11:19
  I'll probably post a little bit of a preview,
• 11:21
  uh,
• 11:21
  you know,
• 11:22
  of something else that I might see,
• 11:23
  something a little different than we're talking about today,
• 11:25
  uh,
• 11:25
  tomorrow's program.
• 11:26
  So if you're listening on the audio feed,
• 11:27
  you'll get something tomorrow.
• 11:29
  But I wanna just direct you to
• 11:31
  YouTube
• 11:32
  at predictable show,
• 11:34
  um,
• 11:34
  the sub stack predictableShow.com.
• 11:37
  Any of the social media stuff,
• 11:38
  we'll get a live feed out to,
• 11:40
  to you guys and,
• 11:41
  you know,
• 11:41
  watch these results come in.
• 11:42
  And if this happens,
• 11:44
  we'll,
• 11:44
  I'll trade it with you live.
• 11:46
  You'll see me doing it
• 11:48
  right in front of you.
• 11:49
  It's fun,
• 11:50
  if nothing else.
• 11:51
  So that's anyway,
• 11:52
  uh,
• 11:52
  kind of a long shot,
• 11:53
  uh,
• 11:53
  fun play for tomorrow if you want to get involved in that.
• 11:55
  Let me give you some of the other high-profile races
• 11:57
  as we go.
• 11:58
  Missouri 01.
• 11:59
  This is,
• 11:59
  uh,
• 12:00
  the big rematch in Saint Louis
• 12:02
  between Wesley Bell and Corey Bush.
• 12:04
  You know who Corey Bush is probably.
• 12:06
  It's funny,
• 12:06
  Wesley Bell is the actual congressman,
• 12:09
  uh,
• 12:09
  but Corey Bush is a lot more famous.
• 12:11
  Uh,
• 12:11
  who will win this?
• 12:12
  Corey Bush,
• 12:12
  uh,
• 12:13
  has trailed most of the time.
• 12:15
  Uh,
• 12:15
  uh,
• 12:16
  give me the last month here though,
• 12:17
  Adam.
• 12:17
  If you look over the last month,
• 12:18
  things have changed quite a bit.
• 12:20
  Uh,
• 12:20
  Corey Bush led,
• 12:21
  uh,
• 12:21
  in the beginning of July,
• 12:23
  and really up until about late July.
• 12:26
  Uh,
• 12:26
  and then the,
• 12:27
  the tides have turned.
• 12:28
  Oh,
• 12:28
  how the turns have tabled.
• 12:30
  And now Wesley Bell is a 67% favorite over Corey Bush at 32%.
• 12:35
  Uh,
• 12:35
  to be honest with you about this race,
• 12:36
  I think it's a fascinating one.
• 12:38
  And there are real opportunities here.
• 12:42
  This would typically,
• 12:43
  especially when we've been looking at our thesis statements that we have,
• 12:47
  we will come up with these at a time,
• 12:48
  kind of making rules for ourselves on the fly.
• 12:51
  What's a current thesis statement?
• 12:53
  One of the thesis statements that we have right now is
• 12:55
  all things being equal,
• 12:57
  particularly in,
• 12:57
  in smaller races,
• 12:58
  congressional seats as opposed to a wide state.
• 13:01
  If Democrats have the opportunity,
• 13:02
  they're gonna take the craziest
• 13:05
  wild-eyed socialist person
• 13:07
  in a Democratic primary.
• 13:08
  That's pretty much what's gonna happen.
• 13:10
  This is a D +27 district,
• 13:12
  so whoever wins this primary is winning this race.
• 13:14
  This is
• 13:15
  not a competitive race,
• 13:16
  so it doesn't matter.
• 13:17
  You don't have to worry about electability here.
• 13:18
  Any Democrat's going to win.
• 13:21
  And Corey Bush is the obvious pick here.
• 13:23
  She's the most insane.
• 13:24
  Now,
• 13:24
  she was so insane last time,
• 13:26
  she actually lost to Wesley Bell,
• 13:27
  who is
• 13:28
  not exactly a conservative candidate or a moderate,
• 13:31
  but Corey Bush will go basically farther than
• 13:34
  almost anyone else when you're talking about left-wing,
• 13:36
  uh,
• 13:37
  you know,
• 13:37
  some would call insanity.
• 13:39
  All that being said,
• 13:41
  The one issue I have here
• 13:43
  is that Corey Bush is,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:47
  almost over the line for the average person.
• 13:50
  She is
• 13:51
  so
• 13:52
  nuts.
• 13:54
  And I say this not even based on policy cause they don't care how socialist she is,
• 13:57
  but she's just a little bit of a whack a doodle.
• 13:59
  And,
• 13:59
  and a lot of people don't like voting for whackadoooodles.
• 14:02
  Uh,
• 14:02
  that being said,
• 14:03
  I do feel like the value is on her here.
• 14:06
  If I was,
• 14:06
  I,
• 14:06
  and I probably will take a small marker or a small position.
• 14:11
  On
• 14:11
  Corey Bush going into this because I do think there's a chance she wins this.
• 14:15
  Um,
• 14:16
  you know,
• 14:16
  there's not a ton of polling,
• 14:18
  uh,
• 14:18
  in this race,
• 14:19
  and Wesley Bell has raised a lot of money,
• 14:21
  which is,
• 14:21
  I think,
• 14:22
  the large reason why,
• 14:24
  uh,
• 14:24
  he is seen as the heavy favorite.
• 14:25
  He's raised over $5 million.
• 14:27
  Uh,
• 14:28
  she's raised about $3 million which is still
• 14:30
  pretty strong.
• 14:31
  She's got pretty strong grassroots support from around the country.
• 14:33
  The question is,
• 14:34
  does it help in this particular district?
• 14:36
  So,
• 14:36
  uh,
• 14:37
  again,
• 14:37
  show me that market one more time if you could,
• 14:38
  Adam,
• 14:39
  uh,
• 14:39
  Missouri 01.
• 14:40
  Uh,
• 14:41
  this is the Corey Bush,
• 14:42
  you see her at
• 14:43
  32%.
• 14:47
  There's some value there.
• 14:48
  I,
• 14:48
  I don't know.
• 14:49
  I think she's probably low 40
• 14:51
  to 45% chance of winning this race.
• 14:53
  She's probably still the underdog.
• 14:54
  I would
• 14:56
  expect to lose this one,
• 14:58
  but I'm kind of tempted by 30%
• 15:01
  and a chance
• 15:02
  to,
• 15:02
  uh,
• 15:03
  to make,
• 15:03
  you know,
• 15:04
  58 or 68 cents on every 32 cents I invest.
• 15:07
  That's a nice profit margin and we're only again talking about a day.
• 15:10
  So I'll watch that one and I will be watching
• 15:12
  this one very closely as votes come out to see
• 15:15
  what happens and what vote is remaining.
• 15:16
  Remember,
• 15:17
  Corey Bush will probably start that race down.
• 15:19
  Uh,
• 15:19
  we'll see.
• 15:20
  You never know with the way votes come out,
• 15:22
  but,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:22
  that will probably be the way we will look at it.
• 15:24
  We'll watch that
• 15:25
  and kind of give you the other updates as we go.
• 15:27
  Uh,
• 15:27
  Michigan Republican primary for governor is another interesting race.
• 15:30
  This is John James and Perry Johnson.
• 15:32
  I do expect James to win this race.
• 15:34
  Do we have that one?
• 15:34
  This is the Michigan
• 15:36
  Republican primary for governor.
• 15:37
  Um,
• 15:38
  we're,
• 15:38
  we're pulling that one up.
• 15:39
  John James has,
• 15:40
  uh,
• 15:40
  raised $6 million.
• 15:42
  Perry Johnson's raised $11 million mostly self-funded.
• 15:44
  So you got the businessman
• 15:46
  versus James,
• 15:46
  who's kind of like the establishment guy.
• 15:48
  Oh yeah,
• 15:48
  this is really high now,
• 15:49
  96%.
• 15:51
  Gosh,
• 15:51
  I was just watching this a couple of weeks ago
• 15:53
  and it was pretty close.
• 15:54
  James,
• 15:54
  I,
• 15:55
  I always think of James as a pretty good candidate,
• 15:58
  uh,
• 15:58
  you know,
• 15:58
  he's a pretty good Republican for a bluish type state.
• 16:01
  I think he,
• 16:02
  you know,
• 16:02
  again,
• 16:03
  talking about aesthetics here does pretty well.
• 16:05
  He presents well,
• 16:06
  he speaks well,
• 16:07
  he's,
• 16:07
  uh,
• 16:08
  you know,
• 16:08
  come very,
• 16:09
  very close to Michigan multiple times.
• 16:11
  Perry Johnson is a challenger.
• 16:13
  At 96% though,
• 16:14
  I gotta be honest,
• 16:15
  I don't see that much value,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:17
  in this one,
• 16:17
  but
• 16:18
  This has been lower previously.
• 16:20
  OK,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:20
  let me give you Michigan 13.
• 16:23
  This is,
• 16:23
  uh,
• 16:24
  a very strange race between an incumbent and a
• 16:28
  sort of socialist challenger.
• 16:30
  Um,
• 16:30
  this is Shri Thanadar.
• 16:34
  I don't even know how to pronounce it.
• 16:34
  He's a congressman.
• 16:36
  I don't know if I've ever heard of the guy,
• 16:37
  although I did see him on social media and he looks like,
• 16:40
  he's like 20 years old and he's 70.
• 16:42
  So I don't know,
• 16:43
  uh,
• 16:43
  but that's,
• 16:44
  he's 70 years old,
• 16:45
  he looks like he's 20 years old.
• 16:46
  This is,
• 16:47
  uh,
• 16:47
  Michigan 13,
• 16:48
  uh,
• 16:49
  outside of Detroit.
• 16:50
  Uh,
• 16:50
  right now,
• 16:51
  we see Donovan McKinney,
• 16:52
  the challenger at 86%,
• 16:54
  and this is just rising as well.
• 16:55
  Wow,
• 16:55
  these,
• 16:56
  these,
• 16:56
  I feel like what's happening is a lot of people who are
• 16:59
  mildly sure about this are pouring money into these races at
• 17:01
  the last minute and they're getting more and more sure.
• 17:03
  I think almost too sure of themselves.
• 17:05
  But again,
• 17:06
  I mean,
• 17:06
  McKinney's only,
• 17:07
  has not raised 20% of the money.
• 17:10
  Uh,
• 17:10
  that has happened.
• 17:11
  Again,
• 17:11
  this is another Democrat plus 22 districts,
• 17:14
  so really whoever wins this is gonna be your congressman.
• 17:17
  But again,
• 17:17
  this is another opportunity to say,
• 17:19
  hey,
• 17:19
  the socialist,
• 17:20
  they're,
• 17:20
  these guys are both super liberal.
• 17:22
  I mean,
• 17:22
  it's hard to even say,
• 17:24
  uh,
• 17:24
  that this is a socialist versus establishment
• 17:27
  race because they're both
• 17:28
  way out there.
• 17:29
  But McKinney
• 17:30
  is kind of known as a DSA guy
• 17:33
  and now all the way up at 86%.
• 17:36
  Questionable value,
• 17:37
  we're gonna watch that one revealed in,
• 17:38
  in real time.
• 17:39
  Um,
• 17:40
  what else do we have?
• 17:40
  Do we have Michigan 12,
• 17:41
  Adam?
• 17:42
  We can look at that one as well if you have it.
• 17:43
  Uh,
• 17:43
  I don't know if you do.
• 17:44
  That's in my stack,
• 17:45
  but I can't remember if I gave that one to you,
• 17:46
  or we can move to Tennessee Governor Governor.
• 17:48
  That's fine too.
• 17:49
  Whatever,
• 17:49
  whatever you have up is,
• 17:50
  is ready to go.
• 17:50
  We had a couple more races to go through.
• 17:52
  I just want to hit these before we get out.
• 17:53
  Uh,
• 17:54
  Michigan 12.
• 17:54
  0,
• 17:55
  this is Rashida to leave.
• 17:55
  That's why I left this one out.
• 17:56
  She's at 99%.
• 17:58
  Uh,
• 17:58
  what,
• 17:58
  if you go back,
• 17:59
  Adam,
• 17:59
  can you zoom in to the last like month or so?
• 18:01
  Uh,
• 18:02
  I wanted,
• 18:02
  I did wind up getting a few shares of her around July 19th or 18th,
• 18:06
  going in that range.
• 18:07
  Yeah,
• 18:07
  she's at 96% there.
• 18:08
  It's only 4% over a few weeks.
• 18:11
  It's not an amazing return,
• 18:12
  but I didn't think there's any chance
• 18:14
  Rashida Talib was going to lose this race,
• 18:16
  and
• 18:16
  now it's gone from 96% to 99%.
• 18:19
  So,
• 18:19
  not,
• 18:19
  not much entry.
• 18:20
  I think I may have already sold out of that position.
• 18:22
  All right,
• 18:23
  Tennessee Governor,
• 18:23
  this is one I do think there's a little bit more value in.
• 18:26
  Uh,
• 18:26
  you know,
• 18:26
  there's a,
• 18:27
  there's some opposition to Marsha Blackburn.
• 18:29
  It's funny,
• 18:29
  I've been around,
• 18:30
  I,
• 18:30
  I know I'm old because I've been around
• 18:32
  long enough that Marsha Blackburn has gone from
• 18:35
  conservative,
• 18:36
  uh,
• 18:36
  firebrand and challenger and
• 18:39
  against the establishment to now kind of the establishment.
• 18:42
  But,
• 18:42
  uh,
• 18:42
  this is the race in Tennessee.
• 18:44
  Uh,
• 18:44
  Marsha,
• 18:45
  so
• 18:45
  this is an interesting race.
• 18:46
  You see,
• 18:47
  it's Marsha Blackburn versus John Rose.
• 18:49
  Rose is,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:51
  is the challenger here.
• 18:52
  Well,
• 18:53
  I mean,
• 18:54
  I mean,
• 18:54
  Blackburn is not the governor,
• 18:56
  so she's not,
• 18:56
  but she's a very well-known figure
• 18:58
  in the state and has been the,
• 18:59
  the heavy favorite for a very long time.
• 19:02
  She is,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:04
  if you go back,
• 19:04
  uh,
• 19:05
  you know,
• 19:05
  she was in the 70s and 80s for a long time
• 19:08
  and popped up,
• 19:08
  go to give me a month here,
• 19:10
  Adam,
• 19:10
  uh,
• 19:11
  this is the month chart.
• 19:12
  You see her,
• 19:13
  give her a high point there,
• 19:15
  which is around uh July 23rd or so.
• 19:18
  Uh,
• 19:19
  you see her pop up a little bit longer,
• 19:21
  maybe to 98% there.
• 19:23
  Really kind of quote unquote,
• 19:24
  a sure thing,
• 19:25
  as we know our First Amendment is a sure thing,
• 19:27
  always has air quotes,
• 19:28
  so
• 19:28
  not a sure thing,
• 19:29
  which is at 98%.
• 19:30
  And this might be an example of it.
• 19:32
  Uh,
• 19:32
  this,
• 19:33
  you see a drop-off after this,
• 19:35
  and you see her drop down to the end here at 92%,
• 19:37
  which is where she stands
• 19:39
  right now.
• 19:40
  I've been buying shares at 91% and 92%,
• 19:42
  uh,
• 19:42
  of Marsha Blackburn to win this race.
• 19:44
  I think she's the favorite.
• 19:45
  The one
• 19:46
  piece of evidence,
• 19:47
  we discussed it briefly last week,
• 19:49
  is a poll that came out,
• 19:50
  which was a poll associated with her challenger,
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:54
  that had this as a 4-point race.
• 19:56
  Every other piece of evidence we have is that this is a double-digit race.
• 20:00
  So,
• 20:01
  I do think she'll win.
• 20:02
  Getting 8% in a day or two is fantastic.
• 20:05
  Uh,
• 20:05
  take it.
• 20:06
  Uh,
• 20:06
  you know,
• 20:07
  this is a weird race because John Rose is
• 20:09
  the challenger and Monty Fitz is another guy.
• 20:11
  I've talked to a bunch of conservatives,
• 20:13
  you know,
• 20:13
  sort of long-term conservatives who really like Monty,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  Fritz
• 20:16
  as the,
• 20:17
  as the opponent.
• 20:18
  Uh,
• 20:18
  uh,
• 20:18
  you know,
• 20:19
  he's inching up a little bit to 2%,
• 20:21
  but I don't think he's,
• 20:22
  he's going to be the winner here.
• 20:23
  But really,
• 20:23
  I don't know.
• 20:24
  I mean,
• 20:24
  it's not,
• 20:24
  I'm,
• 20:25
  I'm on Blackburn to a relatively large position.
• 20:28
  On Blackburn,
• 20:29
  but,
• 20:29
  uh,
• 20:30
  there's enough questions here that I'm probably not gonna go all in.
• 20:33
  And,
• 20:33
  and,
• 20:34
  you know,
• 20:34
  for an all-in result at 8% is nice because you're putting a lot of money behind that,
• 20:39
  uh,
• 20:39
  you know,
• 20:39
  whatever percentage of your portfolio you think is appropriate there.
• 20:42
  And then one last race here before we go,
• 20:44
  this is actually,
• 20:45
  so that one,
• 20:45
  that Tennessee race is on Thursday,
• 20:47
  uh,
• 20:47
  and then we go to,
• 20:49
  uh,
• 20:49
  next week.
• 20:50
  This one I wanted to make you aware of is interesting as well for a couple of reasons.
• 20:53
  This is the South Carolina Special
• 20:55
  Senate primary.
• 20:57
  Um,
• 20:58
  and this is,
• 20:58
  uh,
• 20:59
  the race with who's going to replace,
• 21:02
  um,
• 21:03
  uh,
• 21:03
  Lindsey Graham,
• 21:04
  right?
• 21:04
  Lindsey Graham passes away.
• 21:06
  Obviously,
• 21:06
  Donald Trump comes out and says,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:08
  I want the sister.
• 21:09
  Uh,
• 21:09
  this is,
• 21:09
  uh,
• 21:10
  Graham's Nordone,
• 21:11
  uh,
• 21:11
  Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 21:13
  She is the Uh,
• 21:14
  replacement there.
• 21:14
  Do we have that market by any chance?
• 21:16
  She is the favorite,
• 21:17
  but it's,
• 21:17
  there's a lot of room for her to run.
• 21:19
  She's at 62% right now.
• 21:21
  Russell Frye is at 20%,
• 21:23
  increasing quickly.
• 21:24
  Russell Frye was the guy that Trump
• 21:27
  wanted initially by reporting behind the scenes type reporting.
• 21:30
  Wanted Fry initially,
• 21:32
  was talked out of it.
• 21:33
  Frye is in Congress
• 21:34
  now.
• 21:35
  I'm getting some of these things confused,
• 21:36
  are confusing me off the top of my head,
• 21:38
  but he's at,
• 21:39
  uh,
• 21:39
  he's at 20% now,
• 21:40
  which is rising quickly.
• 21:42
  Ralph Norman is an interesting one.
• 21:44
  Norman's at 18%.
• 21:45
  Here's what I like about the Norman play.
• 21:48
  We did a lot in the South Carolina,
• 21:50
  uh,
• 21:50
  uh,
• 21:50
  gubernatorial nominate,
• 21:52
  uh,
• 21:52
  nomination.
• 21:52
  He was in that race,
• 21:54
  and
• 21:54
  Norman has a pretty locked-in constituency.
• 21:58
  If you think of him as almost like the Nikki Haley constituent constituency in,
• 22:02
  in South Carolina,
• 22:03
  not when she was running,
• 22:04
  but now.
• 22:05
  So people who are of that profile,
• 22:07
  Norman has been endorsed by Haley,
• 22:10
  um,
• 22:10
  really like her,
• 22:11
  and there's about a 20%,
• 22:13
  25%
• 22:15
  grouping.
• 22:16
  In
• 22:17
  South Carolina who really like Norman.
• 22:20
  My view,
• 22:21
  however,
• 22:22
  is
• 22:22
  despite when we have a primary debate tonight,
• 22:25
  so this could change,
• 22:26
  and I'm not going big until I see this debate.
• 22:28
  But if Graham performs well,
• 22:30
  she's gonna probably go
• 22:32
  absolutely crazy and go up to 90-something%.
• 22:35
  And I think that could happen
• 22:36
  tonight.
• 22:37
  Um,
• 22:38
  if she does not,
• 22:40
  this is again,
• 22:40
  you have a runoff here,
• 22:42
  so it's the top two.
• 22:43
  I think there's a good chance Norman actually wins the first round,
• 22:46
  but I don't think Norman can win
• 22:49
  in a runoff
• 22:50
  in this state because
• 22:51
  Trump doesn't like him,
• 22:52
  and Trump will come out,
• 22:53
  whether it's Fry or Graham that somehow get through.
• 22:55
  If they're going against Norman,
• 22:56
  he will come out and I think strongly
• 22:58
  endorse the opponent.
• 23:00
  So what you're talking about here is I think there's value in Graham.
• 23:03
  If you have any ability to project how she's gonna do in this debate.
• 23:07
  If not,
• 23:07
  I wouldn't go into that yet,
• 23:09
  but the no on Norman is interesting to me.
• 23:11
  18%,
• 23:12
  and Norman just does,
• 23:14
  I don't think he has the soul of the Republican Party right now.
• 23:18
  He may show well in this first round,
• 23:20
  but I think it's gonna be difficult for him
• 23:22
  to climb above unless there's some sort of crazy,
• 23:25
  uh,
• 23:26
  thing.
• 23:26
  But for 18%,
• 23:27
  I don't mind it.
• 23:27
  So,
• 23:28
  that's another one
• 23:29
  to look at.
• 23:29
  That's a lot of picks.
• 23:30
  I gave you a lot of information about what we're looking.
• 23:34
  And I can,
• 23:34
  I know sometimes that can be overwhelming.
• 23:36
  One of the,
• 23:36
  probably the most common question we've received since we started this was,
• 23:40
  hey,
• 23:40
  can you just give me a freaking list of the picks?
• 23:41
  Uh,
• 23:42
  you talk about them all the time,
• 23:43
  but I'm in my car.
• 23:44
  I can't write them down,
• 23:45
  uh,
• 23:46
  you know,
• 23:46
  and I,
• 23:46
  I,
• 23:46
  I understand that and I appreciate it.
• 23:48
  I try to give them to you at predictableShow.com.
• 23:49
  I'll give it to you on social media as well.
• 23:52
  None of that's changing.
• 23:53
  We have a premium tier that started.
• 23:55
  What the premium tier is gonna get though is that sort of like
• 23:58
  list of all of them,
• 23:59
  right?
• 23:59
  And I,
• 24:00
  I went through the list.
• 24:01
  There's a lot,
• 24:02
  OK?
• 24:03
  There is a lot of different uh positions that I have.
• 24:05
  Some I barely even remember taking,
• 24:07
  frankly,
• 24:08
  but they're there and I'm gonna I'm gonna unleash the entire list.
• 24:11
  We're doing a record release party on Friday
• 24:14
  for paid subscribers.
• 24:15
  If you wanna be a premium subscriber,
• 24:17
  go to predictableShow.com.
• 24:18
  There you sign up,
• 24:19
  uh,
• 24:19
  you,
• 24:20
  you,
• 24:20
  you,
• 24:20
  you,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:21
  get,
• 24:21
  go to the premium tier,
• 24:22
  make sure you select that premium tier and you will get it,
• 24:24
  you will get all these picks and you will get kind of like a
• 24:27
  I hope to make it a little bit prettier than a spreadsheet,
• 24:30
  but basically,
• 24:30
  every single thing,
• 24:31
  how,
• 24:32
  what the position is,
• 24:33
  and uh what size of a position I took on it,
• 24:37
  which kind of indicates confidence
• 24:39
  level.
• 24:40
  That is kind of where we are with that and we're gonna talk it out.
• 24:43
  I'm gonna describe how you get that information on a day to day basis,
• 24:46
  how we update it,
• 24:47
  show you how to use it,
• 24:49
  how to access it.
• 24:50
  It's all part of your premium
• 24:51
  subscription and it's available at predictableshow.com.
• 24:54
  If,
• 24:55
  if you're someone who's just looking at this and saying,
• 24:56
  look,
• 24:56
  I just wanna get the information still,
• 24:58
  like stop bothering me about the premium subscription.
• 25:00
  I get it.
• 25:00
  That's totally fine.
• 25:01
  We love having you here for free,
• 25:02
  no pressure whatsoever.
• 25:03
  If you wanna get the kind of detailed thing because you're trading these markets,
• 25:07
  I do think this is gonna pay for itself quite easily.
• 25:10
  Uh,
• 25:10
  it's,
• 25:10
  uh,
• 25:11
  it's the type of service that,
• 25:12
  you know,
• 25:12
  look,
• 25:13
  we're not an investment advice show.
• 25:14
  I can't guarantee you anything,
• 25:15
  you never know.
• 25:16
  But we've done very,
• 25:17
  very well
• 25:17
  on these markets so far.
• 25:18
  Let me give you a rundown real quick,
• 25:20
  uh,
• 25:20
  if you want to see how we've done so far.
• 25:23
  We have different sizes of markets.
• 25:24
  They start,
• 25:25
  uh,
• 25:25
  with the marker market,
• 25:26
  the smallest size of any investment that I make,
• 25:29
  kind of just a mark,
• 25:30
  a market,
• 25:30
  so I remember to look at it.
• 25:32
  We've hit on those 42
• 25:33
  and 13 is our record 76.3% success rate.
• 25:37
  A small position.
• 25:38
  A little bit of more confidence,
• 25:40
  but no,
• 25:40
  no,
• 25:40
  no big shakes here,
• 25:42
  right?
• 25:42
  Uh,
• 25:42
  that is,
• 25:42
  we're 41 and 9.
• 25:44
  We've hit 82% of those positions.
• 25:47
  Medium,
• 25:47
  we're starting to get into some pretty good confidence here.
• 25:49
  This is money that I would be annoyed to lose.
• 25:51
  Uh,
• 25:52
  you know,
• 25:52
  it's not a couple of cents here and there,
• 25:53
  but
• 25:54
  our medium picks so far this election season,
• 25:56
  we are 43-1.
• 25:58
  We've hit a 97.8% of those picks.
• 26:01
  Again,
• 26:02
  do I think this is worth it for you if
• 26:03
  you're investing in these markets to get the premium subscription?
• 26:05
  I do.
• 26:06
  I think you're gonna do very,
• 26:07
  very well here
• 26:08
  and easily pay for it on itself.
• 26:10
  Large positions when we're like,
• 26:11
  all right,
• 26:11
  they were really confident in this,
• 26:13
  we're taking a large position.
• 26:14
  We are
• 26:15
  25-0.
• 26:16
  We've hit 100% of our large positions.
• 26:19
  There's only one level that's above large.
• 26:21
  And that's the all-in when I'm like,
• 26:23
  OK,
• 26:24
  every single cent I can get,
• 26:26
  every free cent I have,
• 26:27
  I'm going into this.
• 26:27
  This doesn't mean every dollar you have,
• 26:29
  to be clear,
• 26:29
  don't wipe out your entire life
• 26:32
  because of this,
• 26:32
  but this is every free dollar
• 26:34
  that I have in my prediction market account.
• 26:36
  Uh,
• 26:37
  we go in on the all-in positions.
• 26:38
  We've done that 6 times so far,
• 26:39
  we're 6-0 there.
• 26:40
  So,
• 26:41
  large and all-in positions total,
• 26:42
  we're 31-0,
• 26:44
  and if you add in mediums,
• 26:46
  we're what,
• 26:47
  74-1.
• 26:49
  Now,
• 26:49
  is that good enough
• 26:51
  to get a premium subscription if you're trading these markets?
• 26:53
  I would argue the answer to that is yes.
• 26:55
  And we're gonna give you all those picks,
• 26:57
  our premium subscription.
• 26:58
  Uh,
• 26:59
  uh,
• 26:59
  in our kind of record release party,
• 27:01
  Stu's Picks record release party.
• 27:02
  This will be an updated thing that you get all the time
• 27:04
  if you're part of the premium tier.
• 27:06
  So,
• 27:06
  join us at predictableshow.com.
• 27:09
  We've got some great information when it comes to Hollywood
• 27:11
  and another recommendation we made on the free side,
• 27:13
  we still make those on the free side.
• 27:15
  It's not like premium only gets all the,
• 27:16
  the picks.
• 27:17
  You'll still get lots of them on the free side,
• 27:18
  but,
• 27:19
  uh,
• 27:19
  we did this one on the free side just the other day.
• 27:22
  It's already paid off.
• 27:23
  We'll show you if there's any more room to run
• 27:25
  next.
• 27:46
  Let me bring you back in time for a new segment,
• 27:49
  uh,
• 27:49
  well,
• 27:49
  a segment we've done a couple of times called Here's One I Kinda like,
• 27:52
  and,
• 27:52
  and what I wanna bring you back in time to the Dodd-Frank era.
• 27:55
  Remember Dodd,
• 27:56
  Remember Frank,
• 27:57
  uh,
• 27:58
  the days of Dodd-Frank.
• 27:59
  And in buried in the Dodd-Frank bill,
• 28:03
  there was a conversations going on at that time about prediction markets.
• 28:07
  Are they gonna be rise?
• 28:08
  Are people gonna be talking about them a lot?
• 28:09
  And a couple of people in Hollywood were like,
• 28:11
  well,
• 28:11
  we don't want people
• 28:14
  predicting our num box office numbers.
• 28:17
  That could be,
• 28:17
  that could lead to catastrophe or something.
• 28:19
  I don't know.
• 28:20
  One of Barney Frank's friends was like,
• 28:22
  hey,
• 28:22
  can you put it,
• 28:23
  just throw a little thing in there about prediction markets
• 28:25
  and box office receipts.
• 28:27
  Don't just ban them inexplicably in this middle of this,
• 28:30
  this,
• 28:30
  uh,
• 28:30
  financial bill,
• 28:31
  which doesn't ban prediction markets,
• 28:32
  just bans prediction markets
• 28:34
  about
• 28:35
  box office.
• 28:36
  which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever,
• 28:39
  but it's the law.
• 28:40
  So we follow these things,
• 28:41
  I suppose.
• 28:42
  You have to.
• 28:43
  That's the world that we live in.
• 28:45
  But
• 28:46
  I will say,
• 28:46
  if you happen to be,
• 28:47
  uh,
• 28:47
  this is what's interesting is,
• 28:48
  you know,
• 28:48
  Calci is a,
• 28:49
  uh,
• 28:49
  prediction market based in the US.
• 28:51
  Polymarkett US is also based in the US.
• 28:53
  However,
• 28:54
  there's a poly-market International,
• 28:55
  which does not have,
• 28:56
  it's not,
• 28:56
  you know,
• 28:57
  overseen by the United States.
• 28:58
  Uh,
• 28:59
  so if you happen to be traveling out of the country or whatever you're doing,
• 29:02
  if you're on polymarket US,
• 29:03
  this particular
• 29:05
  market.
• 29:05
  caught my eye and I think it's a fascinating one.
• 29:07
  It's,
• 29:08
  I would say it's not even one I kinda like.
• 29:10
  It's one I kind of love.
• 29:12
  Uh,
• 29:12
  even now,
• 29:12
  I think I still kind of like it.
• 29:14
  We talked about this a few days ago
• 29:16
  on PredictableShow.com,
• 29:17
  so you got this information earlier.
• 29:19
  Uh,
• 29:19
  but this is,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:21
  a market about,
• 29:22
  uh,
• 29:22
  Spider-Man.
• 29:23
  Now,
• 29:23
  this is,
• 29:23
  you probably saw the headlines.
• 29:25
  Spider-Man,
• 29:25
  Brand New Day opening weekend box office
• 29:28
  officially smashes Avengers Endgame
• 29:31
  record,
• 29:31
  or at least,
• 29:32
  it depends on what records you're looking at.
• 29:34
  When we're talking about
• 29:35
  Overall box office receipts,
• 29:37
  it brought in $355 million
• 29:39
  which is $2 million away from the all-time record,
• 29:42
  which was set by
• 29:43
  Avengers Endgame,
• 29:44
  pre-COVID,
• 29:45
  by the way.
• 29:46
  So this is the highest that's ever happened since COVID.
• 29:49
  Obviously,
• 29:50
  more people were going to the theaters back in the COVID days.
• 29:53
  We've had some inflation,
• 29:54
  there's other things that are complicated,
• 29:55
  so,
• 29:56
  you know,
• 29:56
  a little apples and oranges,
• 29:57
  but
• 29:57
  all we're talking about is the main number when it comes to prediction markets.
• 30:01
  Now,
• 30:01
  uh,
• 30:01
  the,
• 30:02
  the market that I absolutely love here
• 30:04
  is about,
• 30:05
  um,
• 30:06
  what is going to be the highest growing,
• 30:07
  um,
• 30:08
  grossing picture of the year.
• 30:10
  Let me just set the stage here.
• 30:12
  Spider-Man Brand New Day is,
• 30:13
  is kind of seen in Hollywood as the most valuable IP
• 30:17
  um
• 30:18
  of any.
• 30:20
  Uh,
• 30:20
  any
• 30:21
  series franchise
• 30:22
  because it's kind of seen as relatable to every,
• 30:24
  it's not like just,
• 30:25
  oh well,
• 30:25
  Tony Stark is a billionaire and there's a bunch of crazy superheroes going around.
• 30:29
  Avengers is a great property for,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:31
  the movie studios,
• 30:32
  but
• 30:33
  Spider-Man kind of seen as like the,
• 30:34
  the longest lasting,
• 30:35
  the most legs,
• 30:36
  all right?
• 30:36
  And I'm not just saying that because spiders have 8 legs,
• 30:39
  which I just realized I had a major pun there,
• 30:40
  so sorry about that.
• 30:41
  It has the most legs.
• 30:43
  So,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:44
  Spider-Man comes out,
• 30:45
  it's coming out this weekend,
• 30:46
  and there's massive attention toward it,
• 30:49
  and it is testing
• 30:50
  off the charts with audiences,
• 30:51
  right?
• 30:52
  This is like,
• 30:52
  yeah,
• 30:52
  I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:55
  in that one,
• 30:56
  you could,
• 30:56
  you could do on Calshi,
• 30:57
  but I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of Spider-Man,
• 30:59
  but it's way up there in the 90s.
• 31:01
  Uh,
• 31:01
  all the background stuff,
• 31:03
  all the industry buzz,
• 31:04
  super,
• 31:05
  super,
• 31:05
  super
• 31:06
  huge on it.
• 31:07
  On the,
• 31:08
  the really,
• 31:08
  you look at the way that this is coming out,
• 31:10
  it's gonna have this massive weekend.
• 31:11
  No one expected it necessarily to do 355 million,
• 31:14
  so they're way above expectations,
• 31:15
  but even with that,
• 31:16
  it looked like it might be
• 31:17
  the top movie of the year,
• 31:18
  passing Toy Story,
• 31:19
  which is now number one.
• 31:20
  You've got uh Odyssey,
• 31:22
  which is still churning,
• 31:23
  but,
• 31:23
  you know,
• 31:24
  somewhat of a quirky 3.5 hour
• 31:27
  tale
• 31:28
  that not necessarily applies to everyday Americans,
• 31:30
  um,
• 31:31
  even though it makes a lot of money,
• 31:32
  probably not gonna be
• 31:34
  superhero level money.
• 31:35
  So there's one more movie that can really get in the way
• 31:39
  of Spider-Man,
• 31:41
  and that is Avengers
• 31:43
  Doomsday.
• 31:45
  So you could say,
• 31:46
  OK,
• 31:46
  Avengers Doomsday,
• 31:47
  the last Avengers,
• 31:48
  or I don't know if it was the last one cause I don't pay attention to,
• 31:50
  uh,
• 31:50
  to,
• 31:51
  too closely to the saga,
• 31:52
  but
• 31:53
  the,
• 31:53
  the biggest one of all time was Avengers Endgame that came out in 2019.
• 31:57
  Another Avengers movie coming out later this year.
• 31:59
  You should be worried whether Spider-Man
• 32:01
  will
• 32:01
  go to number one.
• 32:02
  I was buying this in the low 1980s that Spider-Man would be
• 32:05
  number one.
• 32:07
  Here's the thing,
• 32:08
  Avengers Doomsday
• 32:10
  comes out
• 32:10
  on December 18th.
• 32:14
  So you've got 2 weeks,
• 32:16
  2 weeks of Avengers Endgame versus 5 months potentially
• 32:20
  of Spider-Man Brand New Day.
• 32:23
  I love this matchup.
• 32:25
  I loved it at 83 cents.
• 32:27
  Uh,
• 32:28
  give me the chart.
• 32:29
  We,
• 32:29
  we,
• 32:29
  this is the poly market on it.
• 32:31
  Uh,
• 32:31
  you're looking at it at 83 cents.
• 32:33
  I'm all over it at 83 cents.
• 32:35
  Uh,
• 32:35
  it rose up,
• 32:36
  and honestly,
• 32:36
  I'm,
• 32:36
  I wish I was earlier on this cause you could see it was at 50 cent at one point.
• 32:40
  Uh,
• 32:41
  for Spider-Man Brand New Day.
• 32:42
  It has now risen up from 83.
• 32:44
  It's already up to 91.
• 32:45
  There's still a few more cents to run.
• 32:47
  I just don't see how it's
• 32:49
  I mean,
• 32:49
  Avengers Doomsday would have to have
• 32:52
  the greatest two weeks of every,
• 32:53
  any movie in history.
• 32:55
  And by the way,
• 32:55
  the buzz on,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:56
  would you say,
• 32:57
  Adam,
• 32:57
  the buzz on Avengers Doomsday,
• 32:59
  not that positive so far?
• 33:00
  Is that fair to say?
• 33:02
  People are kind of tired
• 33:04
  of the Marvel stuff.
• 33:05
  Uh,
• 33:05
  there's a lot of
• 33:06
  talk about too much CGI,
• 33:08
  too much AI potentially used,
• 33:09
  even though I don't think they're using AI,
• 33:11
  but feels AI sloppish,
• 33:13
  uh,
• 33:14
  recycles actor,
• 33:15
  actors.
• 33:15
  Oh yeah,
• 33:16
  you're taking,
• 33:16
  the other one was just seems so cheesy.
• 33:18
  They're taking,
• 33:19
  uh,
• 33:19
  they're taking Iron Man,
• 33:20
  and they're just making him a different character inexplicably.
• 33:22
  So anyway,
• 33:23
  that's the buzz on it.
• 33:24
  But even if it's the greatest movie of all time,
• 33:27
  It probably still won't clear what Spider-Man's going to do.
• 33:31
  Uh,
• 33:31
  and,
• 33:32
  you know,
• 33:32
  you get great numbers around the holidays,
• 33:33
  which is why they release movies in December cause everybody's off,
• 33:36
  everyone go see the movies.
• 33:38
  I just don't believe
• 33:39
  it can come close.
• 33:40
  And now the markets are a little more reflecting that,
• 33:42
  but I was honestly relatively late on this bandwagon.
• 33:45
  I still think it's a good investment
• 33:47
  at 91 cents
• 33:48
  or
• 33:49
  Avengers Doomsday,
• 33:50
  no,
• 33:50
  at 8 cents.
• 33:51
  Both of those,
• 33:52
  I think are good picks.
• 33:53
  But there is more,
• 33:54
  uh,
• 33:55
  potential money.
• 33:55
  By the way,
• 33:56
  when I put the,
• 33:56
  gave this out,
• 33:57
  it was a 38%
• 33:58
  annual percentage rate return.
• 34:00
  Um,
• 34:01
  it was a 16% raw return.
• 34:03
  Uh,
• 34:03
  I think we're gonna hit that
• 34:04
  pretty easily,
• 34:05
  especially because we didn't even think,
• 34:06
  and we didn't see $355 million coming,
• 34:09
  so a huge week.
• 34:10
  There are two other things that I think are,
• 34:11
  are three other things.
• 34:12
  This is the highest,
• 34:13
  uh,
• 34:13
  what do we have next?
• 34:14
  Um,
• 34:14
  opening box office,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:16
  numbers.
• 34:17
  Yeah,
• 34:17
  here we go.
• 34:17
  We see now,
• 34:18
  is it going to be $350 million plus?
• 34:21
  I just want to show you a little bit about this market,
• 34:22
  these markets and how these things work.
• 34:25
  If you see the,
• 34:25
  uh,
• 34:25
  the,
• 34:26
  the titles here,
• 34:27
  it's 280 million to 290,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:30
  it's 340 to 350 million,
• 34:32
  and then there's 350 million plus,
• 34:33
  which was the highest
• 34:35
  level they
• 34:36
  put up there,
• 34:36
  350 million plus.
• 34:37
  It cleared that,
• 34:38
  it's gonna,
• 34:38
  that's gonna come through.
• 34:40
  But the more important thing is look at the top of this.
• 34:42
  Spider-Man Brand New Day,
• 34:43
  opening weekend box office,
• 34:45
  parentheses,
• 34:46
  higher strikes.
• 34:47
  Whenever you see something like that,
• 34:49
  something dramatically has changed
• 34:51
  in the prediction markets.
• 34:52
  Higher strikes means
• 34:54
  that
• 34:55
  basically,
• 34:55
  they had some number
• 34:56
  in the last,
• 34:57
  the first time they,
• 34:58
  they put this up there,
• 34:59
  they're like,
• 34:59
  I don't know,
• 35:00
  250 million or more.
• 35:02
  And it was so obvious it was gonna be more than 250 million.
• 35:04
  They had to launch a new prediction market
• 35:07
  to give you higher ranges
• 35:08
  for these prices.
• 35:09
  So whenever you see higher strikes,
• 35:10
  something pretty interesting has happened in that market.
• 35:13
  But 350 million,
• 35:14
  even
• 35:15
  their retry of getting how high this would go,
• 35:18
  came up short.
• 35:19
  350 million or more
• 35:21
  is gonna hit there.
• 35:22
  So let me give you two other places to potentially make money here.
• 35:25
  These are a little bit,
• 35:25
  uh,
• 35:26
  You know,
• 35:27
  again,
• 35:27
  these aren't sure things like I think
• 35:29
  that first market is.
• 35:30
  It's close to a sure thing
• 35:31
  as is possible,
• 35:32
  especially after this first weekend
• 35:33
  of information.
• 35:34
  The only real thought here
• 35:36
  is
• 35:37
  9% now.
• 35:38
  Is there opportunity cost?
• 35:39
  Can you get more of a return?
• 35:41
  I mean,
• 35:41
  we,
• 35:41
  I think that we've got 9% possibilities that are gonna happen tomorrow.
• 35:44
  So you wanna hold that for 5 months for 9%.
• 35:46
  You know,
• 35:46
  I still think it's a good fun part of the
• 35:48
  portfolio if you happen to be on Poly Market International.
• 35:51
  Uh,
• 35:51
  these last two are interesting as well.
• 35:52
  The best week of the year,
• 35:54
  box office returns.
• 35:55
  Um,
• 35:56
  right now,
• 35:56
  it is at,
• 35:57
  uh,
• 35:57
  Avengers Doomsday is leading that at 70%.
• 36:02
  God,
• 36:02
  uh,
• 36:02
  the reason why this is even a question is because
• 36:06
  Avengers Doomsday is coming out around the holidays when everyone's gonna be off.
• 36:09
  So,
• 36:10
  can it beat,
• 36:11
  uh,
• 36:11
  Spider-Man?
• 36:12
  Yes.
• 36:13
  I still
• 36:14
  don't mind Spider-Man at 30% because,
• 36:17
  uh,
• 36:17
  you know,
• 36:17
  again,
• 36:17
  Avengers Doomsday would have to have a Massive,
• 36:21
  massive release.
• 36:23
  It probably will.
• 36:24
  It's still probably the slight favorite there,
• 36:27
  but,
• 36:27
  uh,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:28
  you know,
• 36:28
  gosh,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:29
  I,
• 36:30
  you know,
• 36:30
  still a few,
• 36:31
  a few cents on Spider-Man,
• 36:32
  uh,
• 36:33
  is not,
• 36:33
  uh,
• 36:33
  the worst investment.
• 36:34
  And the last one is,
• 36:35
  uh,
• 36:36
  best weekend of the year.
• 36:37
  This one was pretty low when we first recommended it.
• 36:40
  It's currently at 54%.
• 36:43
  Uh,
• 36:43
  you know,
• 36:44
  look,
• 36:44
  only one movie has ever
• 36:46
  cleared what Spider-Man just did.
• 36:47
  One movie.
• 36:48
  That was an Avengers movie.
• 36:50
  And I think it did come out around the holidays.
• 36:51
  Am I right?
• 36:52
  I think that's true.
• 36:53
  Anyway,
• 36:53
  the,
• 36:54
  I don't remember if it was a holiday or summer release,
• 36:55
  to be honest,
• 36:56
  but,
• 36:56
  uh,
• 36:57
  Spider-Man is still about,
• 36:58
  you can basically double your money
• 36:59
  on Spider-Man being the biggest opening weekend
• 37:02
  and
• 37:05
  It's gonna be,
• 37:06
  there's only been one weekend in history that's been better than it.
• 37:09
  So can Avengers,
• 37:10
  can we get two
• 37:11
  in the same year that have the highest ever?
• 37:14
  Maybe,
• 37:14
  but there hasn't been one that's competed
• 37:16
  with that first Avengers movie since 2019.
• 37:19
  So I think there's value here at 54%.
• 37:22
  Uh,
• 37:22
  I am,
• 37:23
  uh,
• 37:23
  I'm a fan.
• 37:24
  I'm a fan,
• 37:25
  frankly,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:26
  of,
• 37:26
  of that one
• 37:27
  as well,
• 37:28
  although I won't go as big on it as I would on the,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:31
  over the entire year number,
• 37:33
  the 2026 number.
• 37:34
  That one seems really,
• 37:36
  really,
• 37:36
  really strong
• 37:37
  and is in a stronger position even today than when I recommended it.
• 37:40
  Uh,
• 37:41
  a few days ago.
• 37:42
  OK,
• 37:42
  that's where we are.
• 37:43
  It's one I kinda like,
• 37:44
  a couple that I kinda like,
• 37:45
  one that I kinda love,
• 37:46
  frankly,
• 37:47
  as we are talking about
• 37:49
  Spider-Man and box office receipts,
• 37:51
  if you happen to be
• 37:52
  on Poly Market International or one of the international
• 37:54
  exchanges.
• 37:55
  OK,
• 37:55
  I'm gonna take a break,
• 37:56
  come back with your questions next.
• 38:05
  We are at at Predictable show on most uh social media and on YouTube.
• 38:10
  Uh,
• 38:10
  we'd love that you join us there.
• 38:12
  You can put your stuff in the comments.
• 38:13
  We try to look for all of the comments that,
• 38:15
  you know,
• 38:15
  I think would be good
• 38:17
  to share with the entire audience and answer
• 38:19
  those questions to the widest audience possible.
• 38:21
  We also do like lots of stuff on PredictableShow.com.
• 38:23
  If you go to predictableShow.com,
• 38:25
  first of all,
• 38:25
  go there,
• 38:26
  put your email address in.
• 38:27
  Uh,
• 38:27
  you'll get a copy of our predictable constitution,
• 38:29
  which kind of like the rules of the road for trading that I use on a day to day basis
• 38:33
  all the time.
• 38:34
  Uh,
• 38:35
  it's free if you just put your email address in at predictableshow.com.
• 38:39
  In addition to that,
• 38:40
  you can put comments kind of wherever.
• 38:42
  We have a chat that's going on all the time,
• 38:44
  lots of great stuff that comes out just from
• 38:46
  the members
• 38:47
  who put information out there,
• 38:48
  point you to great markets.
• 38:49
  It's a great community to be part of if
• 38:51
  you're thinking about trading at all in these markets,
• 38:53
  predictableshow.com.
• 38:55
  This comes in from Christian from our uh premium subscriber chat yesterday.
• 38:59
  I'd be curious how you look at and deal with
• 39:01
  low volume markets and low info markets with no polling
• 39:05
  or news.
• 39:05
  A bunch of the,
• 39:06
  the stories that we went through earlier
• 39:07
  today when we were going through those markets
• 39:09
  kind of fall into this category.
• 39:11
  Polling is expensive these days and a lot of people don't want to pay for it.
• 39:15
  Uh,
• 39:16
  this happens over and over and over again.
• 39:18
  We're seeing these markets now that,
• 39:20
  you know,
• 39:21
  1520 years ago,
• 39:22
  I mean,
• 39:22
  I've been doing prediction markets for about
• 39:24
  10 years,
• 39:24
  I guess,
• 39:24
  uh,
• 39:25
  2014,
• 39:26
  so 12 years,
• 39:27
  um,
• 39:28
  and
• 39:28
  there would be,
• 39:29
  there'll be polling,
• 39:30
  some polling of every one of these markets,
• 39:32
  uh,
• 39:32
  these races.
• 39:33
  If it was at all expected to be close,
• 39:35
  you'd see polling.
• 39:36
  A lot of them now are going in
• 39:38
  blind.
• 39:40
  Sometimes there's a lot of different factors you can take into that.
• 39:42
  You can take into account fundraising,
• 39:43
  you can take into account,
• 39:44
  uh,
• 39:44
  fundamentals of the race.
• 39:45
  You can take into account
• 39:47
  voter,
• 39:47
  um,
• 39:48
  uh,
• 39:48
  or name recognition of the candidates is a big one
• 39:51
  that we look at.
• 39:52
  We look at the,
• 39:53
  the,
• 39:53
  the
• 39:54
  demographics of the race,
• 39:55
  but all that is sort of art,
• 39:58
  right?
• 39:59
  You know,
• 40:00
  this always comes down to it,
• 40:01
  you can't just believe polling.
• 40:03
  You can't just believe that stuff,
• 40:05
  but
• 40:06
  Uh,
• 40:06
  you,
• 40:06
  it,
• 40:06
  it's a great
• 40:07
  additional factor to have.
• 40:09
  And it,
• 40:09
  I always look for
• 40:11
  several things I can check off
• 40:13
  that will make me feel more and more comfortable.
• 40:15
  I don't want just one indicator.
• 40:17
  I want multiple indicators.
• 40:19
  And
• 40:19
  one of the biggest lessons you can learn by doing this is,
• 40:22
  you just don't have to be in every market.
• 40:25
  It's OK
• 40:26
  that you look at a race and you say,
• 40:27
  gosh,
• 40:27
  I have a feeling about this,
• 40:28
  but I don't have enough evidence to support my feeling.
• 40:30
  Maybe take a marker position,
• 40:32
  which is our smallest,
• 40:32
  tiniest position,
• 40:33
  sometimes as low as one share,
• 40:35
  right?
• 40:35
  Like just so you could mark it.
• 40:36
  Maybe a small position if you're feeling feisty.
• 40:39
  But if you don't have the information and you don't feel like
• 40:42
  certain
• 40:43
  about where you're going,
• 40:44
  Then maybe the best idea is to just stay out of the market,
• 40:47
  and that's OK.
• 40:47
  There's going to be so many opportunities.
• 40:49
  Tomorrow we have 5 primaries.
• 40:51
  There's 12 races in each.
• 40:52
  There's so much to find
• 40:54
  with information.
• 40:55
  You don't need to go to those positions
• 40:57
  unless you have a real strong feeling about it.
• 40:58
  So,
• 40:59
  that's kind of where I am.
• 41:00
  Thanks for the question,
• 41:00
  Christian.
• 41:01
  Jack asks,
• 41:01
  low risk,
• 41:02
  low reward,
• 41:03
  high risk,
• 41:04
  high reward.
• 41:05
  How do we make this low-risk,
• 41:07
  high reward?
• 41:08
  That is
• 41:10
  essentially the holy grail question,
• 41:11
  right?
• 41:11
  The $64,000 question.
• 41:13
  It's the question that,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:15
  I would love to have a perfect answer to,
• 41:16
  uh,
• 41:17
  because if I had it,
• 41:18
  I would be making a lot more.
• 41:19
  I'd be,
• 41:20
  I'd be looking like,
• 41:20
  uh,
• 41:21
  Scottylicious on these markets.
• 41:22
  Uh,
• 41:22
  yeah,
• 41:22
  I'd have much,
• 41:23
  much more money than I have.
• 41:25
  Um,
• 41:26
  I
• 41:27
  will say that it's difficult to find that combo.
• 41:29
  A lot of times you have to settle for either low risk,
• 41:32
  low reward,
• 41:32
  or high risk,
• 41:33
  high reward.
• 41:34
  Um,
• 41:34
  but what I will say is we do look for the,
• 41:36
  the Stevens Market in Michigan is an interesting example of a low-risk,
• 41:40
  high reward potential situation.
• 41:42
  Uh,
• 41:43
  I do expect probably I'll lose a few bucks on that position.
• 41:46
  We talked about it earlier,
• 41:47
  buying her at like 1 cent
• 41:49
  and then watching the election results come in and hoping
• 41:52
  she pops to 5 or 10 or 15 or 20,
• 41:54
  or who knows?
• 41:55
  Maybe she even wins.
• 41:56
  Um,
• 41:57
  but the risk is really,
• 41:58
  really low there.
• 41:59
  You know,
• 41:59
  if you're buying at 1 cent,
• 42:00
  you get 1000 shares for $10.
• 42:03
  So if you're willing to take a $10 risk and maybe turn that into
• 42:06
  $30.50 dollars,
• 42:07
  $100 200 dollars,
• 42:08
  who knows,
• 42:09
  maybe as much as $1000.
• 42:11
  It,
• 42:11
  it's kind of fun to try that stuff.
• 42:13
  I will say most of the time,
• 42:15
  you'll either wind up with a small gain or a small loss when you're playing that way.
• 42:18
  It doesn't always give you the high reward,
• 42:20
  but we have hit a bunch of these.
• 42:21
  One of the things we did when we did that breakdown earlier
• 42:23
  of our kind of record across those categories.
• 42:27
  As I was analyzing that information,
• 42:28
  I was like,
• 42:29
  well,
• 42:29
  how are we doing on these long shot stuff?
• 42:31
  And when,
• 42:31
  when we say,
• 42:31
  hey,
• 42:32
  you know,
• 42:32
  we're buying,
• 42:33
  we're buying in at
• 42:34
  between 0 and 10% chance to win.
• 42:37
  Um,
• 42:37
  and,
• 42:38
  uh,
• 42:38
  we,
• 42:39
  I was looking at those positions,
• 42:40
  which you'd expect to hit
• 42:42
  around 5% of those.
• 42:44
  So far,
• 42:45
  we're around,
• 42:46
  uh we were at 25% when I ran the analysis.
• 42:49
  I did miss one by 0.8% in South Dakota,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:52
  last time.
• 42:53
  So I think we're down to like 22,
• 42:54
  23%,
• 42:55
  somewhere in that vicinity.
• 42:56
  The bottom line is we're,
• 42:57
  we're outperforming those long on those long shots by a significant amount.
• 43:01
  So this Haley Stevens one is what I'm gonna try probably tomorrow,
• 43:05
  uh,
• 43:05
  and buy some shares on her and just see what happens.
• 43:08
  Maybe she has a little bit of pop.
• 43:09
  I would love to see that because at this point,
• 43:11
  there's no value in going the opposite way.
• 43:12
  So that's an example of low-risk,
• 43:14
  higher reward.
• 43:15
  Uh,
• 43:16
  thanks for the question,
• 43:16
  Jack.
• 43:16
  And Evan writes,
• 43:17
  I personally do not understand why Darlene
• 43:19
  Graham is considered such a huge favorite,
• 43:21
  giving her mediocre poll.
• 43:22
  Do you have a no position on her?
• 43:24
  I kind of discussed it a little bit earlier,
• 43:25
  uh,
• 43:26
  Evan,
• 43:26
  but to add on to this,
• 43:27
  um,
• 43:28
  I don't have a no position on her.
• 43:29
  I have a,
• 43:30
  a small,
• 43:30
  I think,
• 43:31
  uh,
• 43:32
  maybe medium position,
• 43:34
  uh,
• 43:34
  and yes on her because I do think she gets through the runoff,
• 43:37
  and when she gets to the runoff,
• 43:38
  I expect
• 43:39
  Trump to be a factor
• 43:41
  in loudly saying,
• 43:42
  hey,
• 43:44
  Uh,
• 43:44
  I
• 43:46
  do not want
• 43:47
  Ralph Norman as the opponent.
• 43:48
  It becomes more,
• 43:50
  uh,
• 43:50
  difficult if Fry is her opponent.
• 43:52
  If it's Fry
• 43:53
  versus Graham,
• 43:55
  I don't
• 43:55
  he might keep the endorsement.
• 43:57
  But he may do the double endorsement thing or he may do the,
• 44:00
  I'm gonna stay quiet thing,
• 44:01
  and that's not gonna help,
• 44:03
  uh,
• 44:03
  Darlene Graham because look,
• 44:05
  Graham is there because of name recognition.
• 44:06
  We don't know anything about her really.
• 44:08
  She has,
• 44:08
  uh,
• 44:08
  you know,
• 44:09
  she was helping blind people,
• 44:11
  which is wonderful.
• 44:12
  Does that make you a senator?
• 44:13
  I don't know.
• 44:14
  Uh,
• 44:14
  she,
• 44:14
  does she share all the positions of Lindsey Graham?
• 44:16
  I frankly didn't love all the positions of Lindsey Graham,
• 44:18
  but it's probably would be enough
• 44:20
  with the Trump endorsement for her to win the state.
• 44:22
  Especially against Norman.
• 44:23
  If Norman's in there,
• 44:24
  I'm very skeptical about his chance to get over 50% in that race.
• 44:27
  So I,
• 44:28
  I,
• 44:28
  I am holding off of growing any position
• 44:31
  that I have on Darlene Graham
• 44:33
  until I see this debate tonight.
• 44:34
  I wanna see how she performs.
• 44:35
  If she performs well,
• 44:36
  I'm pretty bullish on Graham.
• 44:38
  Uh,
• 44:38
  so we will see how
• 44:40
  that goes.
• 44:41
  Uh,
• 44:41
  that's all I have time for.
• 44:42
  Uh,
• 44:42
  although,
• 44:42
  I will,
• 44:43
  uh,
• 44:43
  remind you one more time to go to predictableShow.com.
• 44:45
  We would love for you to be there.
• 44:47
  I would love for you to be part of the premium tier
• 44:49
  of predictableShow.com.
• 44:51
  Why?
• 44:51
  Well,
• 44:52
  you're gonna get every single pick,
• 44:53
  every single position
• 44:55
  that I have
• 44:56
  all coming out on Friday,
• 44:57
  sort of a record release party.
• 44:59
  Uh,
• 44:59
  we're gonna get on,
• 44:59
  we're gonna do a live stream,
• 45:00
  talk to you,
• 45:01
  we'll answer your questions about my picks.
• 45:03
  You can make fun of my terrible ones.
• 45:04
  There are a few.
• 45:05
  I thought about like,
• 45:06
  can I just delete these and not put these in?
• 45:08
  No,
• 45:08
  I'm showing you all of the warts.
• 45:11
  Uh,
• 45:11
  there are a few in there that I'm like,
• 45:12
  gosh,
• 45:13
  why did I even do that?
• 45:14
  I don't,
• 45:14
  what an idiot.
• 45:15
  Those are there.
• 45:16
  Lots of good ones though as well that I think you'll be able to uh
• 45:19
  look at and still have plenty of room to run on a lot of them.
• 45:22
  Um,
• 45:22
  some of them have already kind of resolved and
• 45:24
  most of the profits have been taken away.
• 45:26
  Some of them though,
• 45:26
  there are real opportunities for you to jump in.
• 45:28
  And they're,
• 45:29
  you know,
• 45:29
  ones that go till the end of the year,
• 45:31
  uh,
• 45:31
  most of them,
• 45:31
  there's a few that are even 2028,
• 45:33
  uh,
• 45:33
  you know,
• 45:34
  presidential stuff that I have,
• 45:35
  which is kind of interesting to talk about.
• 45:37
  So,
• 45:38
  lots of interesting stuff.
• 45:39
  Just go there,
• 45:40
  get the premium tier subscription,
• 45:42
  and you will get access to every single pick that I have
• 45:45
  in an updated way.
• 45:46
  Over the time that you're a member.
• 45:48
  So as these things update,
• 45:49
  you'll be able to say,
• 45:49
  hey,
• 45:50
  I love that pick.
• 45:50
  I'm gonna go with Stu on that one,
• 45:52
  or say,
• 45:52
  hey,
• 45:53
  that one's really stupid.
• 45:54
  He's a moron.
• 45:54
  I'm gonna make fun of him in the live chat.
• 45:56
  Whatever you wanna do,
• 45:57
  we'd love to have you at predictableshow.com as part of the premium members.
• 46:00
  There's been a ton of you that have joined so far.
• 46:02
  Thanks so much,
• 46:03
  by the way,
• 46:03
  uh,
• 46:04
  because this is a new thing that we just launched.
• 46:06
  We're really,
• 46:06
  really excited.
• 46:07
  It has us rising up the charts on the sub-stack charts and all of that.
• 46:10
  So thanks so much for being part of the team.
• 46:12
  I do think it's gonna be
• 46:13
  uh money well spent.
• 46:14
  It should pay for itself,
• 46:15
  I think,
• 46:16
  uh,
• 46:16
  at least,
• 46:17
  uh,
• 46:17
  if things continue to go as well as they've gone so far.
• 46:19
  So,
• 46:20
  thanks so much for joining us and check us out on YouTube,
• 46:23
  on podcast as well.
• 46:24
  We're available everywhere you are.
• 46:27
  So that's all I have for you tonight.
• 46:28
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 46:29
  We'll see you tomorrow.