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What next for war in the Middle East? · The Front

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  Speaker 1: the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's
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  Speaker 1: on the Front. I'm Kristin Amiot. It's Tuesday, August twenty seven.
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  Speaker 1: leader in a major speech in Melbourne on Monday night.
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  Speaker 1: at The Australian dot com dot a U be Alert,
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  Speaker 1: not Alarmed. Our chief international correspondent believes airstrikes by Israel
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  Speaker 1: and Hesbela over the weekend are likely to reduce the
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  Speaker 1: risk of war, and Cameron Stewart says, it's clear nobody's
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  Speaker 1: ready for all out war in the Middle East. That's
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  Speaker 1: today's episode. On Sunday morning, rockets rained down on southern Lebanon.
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  Speaker 1: They were targeting military sites belonging to the Iranian backed
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  Speaker 1: terrorist group Hesbla. Prime Minister Benjamin NETTNYA, who said later
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  Speaker 1: that the Israeli Defense Force was acting on intelligence that
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  Speaker 1: indicated a large scale attack was brewing over Israel's northern border.
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  Speaker 1: Zbala Israel said thousands of Hesbela military sites had been destroyed,
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  Speaker 1: but within hours, in the early morning light, Israel's infamous
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  Speaker 1: Iron Dome sprang into action, intercepting hundreds of rockets launched
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  Speaker 1: by the Lebanese group. Birds can be heard chirping, but
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  Speaker 1: the light of dawn pales in comparison to the fiery
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  Speaker 1: tales of missiles zigzagging across the sky. A Hesbela said
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  Speaker 1: it had sent more than two hundred rockets south into
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  Speaker 1: populated areas of northern Israel. Drones were captured exploding on
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  Speaker 1: film two, but only one woman was injured as a
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  Speaker 1: direct result of the attack. Al Lado woman held Falado
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  Speaker 1: this was an act of revere by Hesbelah for the
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  Speaker 1: death of its military chief on July thirty.
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  Speaker 2: And Jon Padilla, the hatman in shah Allah.
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  Speaker 1: Israel hasn't claimed any responsibility for the assassination, but it
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  Speaker 1: didn't denounce it either, and Hesbela hasn't ruled out further attacks.
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  Speaker 1: Cam rotrek from both sides of the border appears to
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  Speaker 1: indicate that this is an escalation of the conflict in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East. But things were strangely quiet after those
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  Speaker 1: hundreds of rockets were fired from both Israel and Lebanon
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  Speaker 1: on the weekend. So is this an escalation, Well, it's interesting.
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  Speaker 2: It's an escalation certainly in the very short term, but
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  Speaker 2: I think in the longer term it probably isn't.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.
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  Speaker 2: Now, of course things are very fluid, anything can change
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  Speaker 2: in the next forty eight hours or so. But interestingly,
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  Speaker 2: this barage of Baroca fired all occur within a twenty
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  Speaker 2: four hour period, and it seemed as if this was
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  Speaker 2: going to escalate the conflict. However, Hesbala then abruptly stopped
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  Speaker 2: its bombardment and said that's all for now, and Israel
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  Speaker 2: didn't have a big, heavy blanket response. So I think
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  Speaker 2: if you read between the lines, even though there was
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  Speaker 2: a lot of literally smoke and bombardment on both sides,
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  Speaker 2: I think what we're seeing here is a desire by
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  Speaker 2: both Hesba and Israel to limit the conflict to some degree.
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  Speaker 1: When Hamas militants invaded southern Israel on October seven, killing
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  Speaker 1: almost twelve hundred people, Israel was totally blindsided. It retaliated
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  Speaker 1: with a full scale invasion of Gaza, where her Mass
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  Speaker 1: is based. Thousands of people have been killed or injured
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  Speaker 1: in that conflict, many of them are Palestinian civilians. Millions
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  Speaker 1: more have been displaced, left with ourt shelter, food and
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  Speaker 1: clean water. Mediations, and ceasefire negotiations have failed, the gunfire
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  Speaker 1: raging for all but six days. Hezbela joined the fighting
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  Speaker 1: the very next day, on October eighth, and has fired
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  Speaker 1: thousands of missiles and drones at northern Israel since then,
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  Speaker 1: sparking fears this could become an all out regional war.
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  Speaker 1: So far, that hasn't happened. Cam You've written for the
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  Speaker 1: paper that the events of the weekend weren't necessarily enough
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  Speaker 1: to tip this conflict into a region wide war. Are
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  Speaker 1: we seeing the crystallization of Israel's strategy? Here? Is this
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  Speaker 1: ten month assault of Gaza a warning to the rest
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  Speaker 1: of the region.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the Israel certainly has been very muscular in its
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  Speaker 2: response to any threats. It's obviously hurted sinternational reputation by
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  Speaker 2: the heaviness of the response in Gaza. It's certainly responded
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  Speaker 2: very vigorously to previous attacks by Hezbalah and by Iran's
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  Speaker 2: proxies in the region as well. But I think Israel
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  Speaker 2: does not want to go into have a full scale
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  Speaker 2: conflict with Hesba. Hezebela is the best armed terror force
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  Speaker 2: in the region. If it really wanted to, if it
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  Speaker 2: really wanted to attack Israel, especially civilian centers, it could
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  Speaker 2: do horrific damage to Israel. What's happened is Israel has
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  Speaker 2: to basically abandon villagers in northern Israel. There's tens of
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  Speaker 2: thousands of people there Christian who can't go back to
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  Speaker 2: their homes and so this is a real problem for Israel.
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  Speaker 2: How does it deal with these low level attacks by
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  Speaker 2: Hezbollah without creating a bigger war? And so in a way,
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  Speaker 2: this attack allows Hezbollah to, if you like say face
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  Speaker 2: to say look, we've attacked Israel, whereas that in fact
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  Speaker 2: the attack caused almost no damage to Israel, but it
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  Speaker 2: does allow Hesbella to save face. So that's why I
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  Speaker 2: think Hesbella might be quite satisfied with this outcome, because
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  Speaker 2: it looks like it's been hairy chested about its threats,
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  Speaker 2: but in fact it's actually done so in a way
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  Speaker 2: that doesn't appear to have infuriated Israel.
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  Speaker 1: And what's the calculus for the other fringe players in
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  Speaker 1: this conflict? Do you think what's going on in the
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  Speaker 1: war rooms of Iran and Yemen for example right now?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great question because Iran and of course
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  Speaker 2: Hesbola are incredibly close. Hesbelah more or less does what
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  Speaker 2: Iran wants it to do, and so the question is
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  Speaker 2: now what will Iran do? Because Iran, just like Hesbola,
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  Speaker 2: pledged to attack Israel. In Iran's case, it was in
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  Speaker 2: retaliation for the assassination of the political chief of Hamas
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  Speaker 2: in Tehran last month. Iran has done nothing and Israel
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  Speaker 2: has waited. Now the question here is what will Iran do.
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  Speaker 2: We've seen what Hesbela has done. Will Iran have any
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  Speaker 2: sort of strike against Israel? If it did, would it
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  Speaker 2: be a big strike or would it be a limited
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  Speaker 2: strikee That's really the calculus which everyone's looking at at
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  Speaker 2: this minute.
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  Speaker 1: Israel's placed a lot of focus on the fact that
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  Speaker 1: this was a preemptive strike based on intelligence that it
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  Speaker 1: says it's had for several weeks. Now. That's in stark
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  Speaker 1: contrast to the catastrophic intelligence failure of October seven? Is
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  Speaker 1: that intentional? Do you think are they trying to maybe
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  Speaker 1: either reassure Israeli's in there intelligence abilities or are they
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  Speaker 1: sending again a warning to other forces in the region
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  Speaker 1: that they know what they're up to.
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  Speaker 2: I think to a degree, what they're trying to do
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  Speaker 2: here is genuinely forestall a very big attack by Hesbla,
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  Speaker 2: if that's what Hesbola was planning. But of course the
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  Speaker 2: image that gives of Israeli intelligence knowing the threat is
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  Speaker 2: certainly something which Israel would be keen the net Niyahu
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  Speaker 2: government would be very keen to reinforce. I mean Benjamin
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  Speaker 2: nett Niaho, the Israeli Prime Minister. His fundamental political problem
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  Speaker 2: above all else here is at the moment that the
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  Speaker 2: fighting dies down. If there was a cease fire agreement,
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  Speaker 2: for example, between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. The focus
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  Speaker 2: politically in Israel will be going on to October seven
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  Speaker 2: and on the catastrophic intelligence failures under net Nieh's watch
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  Speaker 2: that allowed this massacre of Israelis by Hamas to happen.
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  Speaker 2: That is the big shadow that hangs over Israeli politics
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  Speaker 2: or the Israeli government at this point in time. So
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  Speaker 2: they certainly would like to, wherever possible, demonstrate that their
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  Speaker 2: intelligence services are not as bad as they did appear
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  Speaker 2: on October seven.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what the weekend's events mean for the future
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  Speaker 1: of the Middle East conflict. Don't forget Subscribers to The
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  Speaker 1: Australian get access to this kind of in depth reporting
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  Speaker 1: and analysis around the clock. Check us out at the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au and we'll be back after
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  Speaker 1: this break. As Israel and hesbel a traded missile fire
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  Speaker 1: on Sunday, peace talks hit another hurdle. Hamas rejected a
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  Speaker 1: ceasefire deal broken by negotiators from the United States, Katah
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  Speaker 1: and Egypt. It took issue with the suggestion Israeli troops
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  Speaker 1: would remain stationed on the Philadelphi Corridor. That's a fourteen
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  Speaker 1: kilometer strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt.
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  Speaker 1: It's not the first time a ceasefire deal between Israel
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  Speaker 1: and Hamas has fallen over here's Cameron Stewart. Just lastly,
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  Speaker 1: Cam on Monday, it was reported that Hamas has rejected
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  Speaker 1: the latest ceasefire deal negotiated by the United States and others.
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  Speaker 1: This conflict is quickly coming up on a terrible milestone,
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  Speaker 1: that's the one year bark. But everyone seems to be
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  Speaker 1: in this strange holding pattern where no one's pushing it
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  Speaker 1: into a region wide conflict, but no one's backing out either.
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  Speaker 1: So where does this conflict go from here in the
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  Speaker 1: context of what's happened over the weekend.
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  Speaker 2: Well, strangely enough, the peace talks are still going on,
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  Speaker 2: and it's very difficult to read because each day you
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  Speaker 2: hear different things, you read different things. The concept of
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  Speaker 2: whether they will agree to this peace deal seems to
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  Speaker 2: shift by the day with Hamas, so they don't appear
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  Speaker 2: entirely committed to it and entirely reliable. You can also
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  Speaker 2: ask the same question of Israel. There's a lot of
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  Speaker 2: speculation that Benjamin Nie, who doesn't really like this cease
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  Speaker 2: fire deal. He doesn't really want to cease fire. He
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  Speaker 2: wants to keep going after Hamas. So I think the
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  Speaker 2: commitment to the ceasefire from both Hamas and Israel's point
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  Speaker 2: of view is very much up in to debate, and
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  Speaker 2: each day you keep thinking it's getting closer and closer.
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  Speaker 2: The Americans have been saying it's very close. Joe Biden,
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  Speaker 2: the President, said just the other day, we think we're
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  Speaker 2: very close, but it hasn't yet happened, and it's absolutely
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  Speaker 2: no guarantee to happen at this point in time.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can
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  Speaker 1: read all our reporting and analysis of the conflict in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dot are you