Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Breaking $124: The AST SpaceMobile Supercycle
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:10We will just basically turn your phone be seamless regardless of
- 0:14where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:28Everyone, thanks for joining this ad hoc space at 11:00.
- 0:35I'm going to try to keep this somewhat short, but I always say
- 0:39that at the beginning of these things and then always go over
- 0:41pretty long. But I am pretty tired.
- 0:45Yesterday I was up late and this.
- 0:49This was part of the call I guess.
- 0:50For this morning when? I had tweeted out that I had
- 0:54dreamed. That the stock price was going
- 0:56to break 124 I yesterday I was up late, I think it was until 11
- 1:01AM. And one of the things about
- 1:04investing is that you, you can fill your time pretty easily
- 1:08because there's always a, a insurmountable like wall of
- 1:15opportunity where, and, and this is the, the one of the like
- 1:19positive things about investing, but also one of the things that
- 1:23can really drain you as well is that, especially when I was
- 1:28working professionally, you always thought that if I spend
- 1:31additional time and try to learn more about a particular position
- 1:35or get some type of edge, like a funny story, I, I used to, when
- 1:40I had my, when I was at, in the hedge fund industry.
- 1:43And I remember there was one year where I was always looking
- 1:47at my phone and looking at my Bloomberg app, just checking to
- 1:51see if. News was going to break because
- 1:52I I covered a lot of. Event driven situations and for
- 1:56M&A like you're always looking for rumors, whether that's from
- 1:59the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or what have you and
- 2:03if something was breaking you wanted to be on top of it and
- 2:06get ready for it for the next morning or that evening and and
- 2:11so I'd. Always check.
- 2:11I just had this. Terrible habit.
- 2:13And my wife would always reprimand me for it, but I would
- 2:16always be checking my phone. And at one point there, there
- 2:19was a time when Bloomberg, the IT people reached out to me and
- 2:23they asked me these questions like, hey, were you logged in?
- 2:25Were you checking news here and there?
- 2:27And, and through these questions, I started to figure
- 2:30out that they were seeing if I was scraping their news because
- 2:36they were afraid that maybe I was taking their information
- 2:38and, you know, using it or selling it or doing something
- 2:41else. And then I told them, no, I'm
- 2:43actually just a loser. I I keep checking information at
- 2:47all hours of the night. And so, yeah, that's The funny
- 2:50thing about investing is that if you want there's, there's you
- 2:54could basically work 24/7, which I'm kind of scared that there's
- 2:58these proposals to have the markets open 24/7.
- 3:01I think that's pretty that would be really bad for mental health
- 3:04and yeah, for work life balance. But.
- 3:07But yeah, I, you know, when I do have some free time, I will, I
- 3:11will take a look at whether it's situations that I'm involved in
- 3:15or new ideas, you know, I'll spend some amount of time on
- 3:18that. And more recently, because the
- 3:21market has been doing well and there's all these other ideas
- 3:24that are floating around, people have been asking me to look at
- 3:26them and, and I'll take a look at some of them.
- 3:28But anyway, kind of, I guess going off on tangent, but last
- 3:32night I was up till 1:00 AM and then I decided to call a night.
- 3:35And when I stay up that late, I often times will not get good
- 3:40sleep and I have to wake up early because the kids get up
- 3:42early as well. And you know, it's my job to
- 3:45make breakfast and, and get them ready for school.
- 3:48But I think I woke up at like 3:50 AM because I used to cover
- 3:53Europe. And so I have this habit of
- 3:55waking up early for the European Open, even though I don't do
- 3:58anything with Europe now. But I woke up and I couldn't,
- 4:03you know, it was hard for me to go back to sleep.
- 4:04So of course, I checked news, which is bad because then you
- 4:07start, you know, getting your brain working and it's hard to
- 4:10go back to sleep. And so I tried to put myself
- 4:13back to sleep. And then during one of these
- 4:15periods of, you know, 20 minutes of sleep or 30 minutes of sleep,
- 4:19that's when it, I had this like vivid picture that, oh, AST is
- 4:23going to break 124 today. And it was like very bizarre.
- 4:28And so that's when, when I finally did wake up, I think it
- 4:32was like 610 or 615 when I tweeted, but I was like, Hey,
- 4:35you know what, this is kind of fun.
- 4:37I'll just tell people what happened.
- 4:38Like I dreamed that we would break 124 today.
- 4:41And so I tweeted that and then I went back to sleep or tried to.
- 4:45And then of course, I got up at 6:50 and then.
- 4:48Did did what I had to do. But it was kind of funny
- 4:50because. Over the course of the.
- 4:51Day, you know, stock was strong and.
- 4:55And of course, various people were.
- 4:57Speculating, oh, why is the stock strong?
- 4:58Well, maybe maybe you know, any number of catalysts we've we've
- 5:04talked about, which I'll cover later in this, in this in this
- 5:08space, but any number of catalysts can be coming up.
- 5:10But one of them which kind of stood out once which base mob
- 5:15person had found the, the FCC meeting, but the, the meeting
- 5:20between AT&T, Verizon, Firstnet, Dave Marshakov, RKF and then of
- 5:27course, AST they met with, with the FCC.
- 5:30And so that was a pretty important, you know, data point.
- 5:34And I, I tweeted it and the stock didn't do anything.
- 5:37And I was like, hey guys. This is this is really
- 5:40important. You guys should pay attention.
- 5:41This is Alpha and I'll talk a bit more about it.
- 5:44But that meaning of itself given the back and forth between the
- 5:51company and and the FCC and of course the ending of the comment
- 5:55period in early October like that was a tell tale sign.
- 5:58Like we're pretty close, pretty close to the end, end game for
- 6:02the US approval for U.S. market application, which is a huge
- 6:07deal and I'll talk more about it later, but.
- 6:11But yeah, it was kind of fun just seeing the stock price kind
- 6:13of going, going back and forth and.
- 6:15Today was a bit of a volatile day, especially with the Fed
- 6:19decision looming. And so the stock was strong.
- 6:22And then of course, like like ASD normally does it it sold
- 6:25off, came back down and then it moved back up and lo and behold,
- 6:30it it got to 1. 21/21, 1:20. 2 And I was like no.
- 6:34Really, it's going to happen. And it happened it it broke 1:24
- 6:38today. So I think the high was 12432.
- 6:42And and it was funny because I I'd come across the.
- 6:46The the. The meme of Fat Vance dancing
- 6:50and I think it was like 2 days ago somebody posted that meme of
- 6:54him dancing and saying like, oh, this is what happens when you
- 6:57get 2 two sticks of of 16 gigabyte RAM for really cheap or
- 7:02something. And they had some dancing and,
- 7:05and I was like, oh, I'm going to take that because one day it's
- 7:07going to be useful. And of course I didn't realize
- 7:09that it was going to be today, just two days later.
- 7:13So, so that was fun. And yeah, I, I think part of me
- 7:18doing this base is just to memorialize the fact that we've
- 7:22reached this all time high. I mean, 12432 intraday high,
- 7:26which is insane. And closing price 1/21/23, an
- 7:32all time high. And so when you take a step back
- 7:36and thinking about, think about where we've come from, yeah,
- 7:39it's pretty crazy. Like, you know, of course, like
- 7:42some people day-to-day, the stock price is down, it'll be
- 7:46up. Obviously there's still some
- 7:48decent amount of volatility, but sometimes I have to remind
- 7:51people like slap them around. Like, hey, did you know that
- 7:54today? The stock moved like 6 market
- 7:57caps worth of AST back in 2024. So chill out.
- 8:01Like it's, it's we've come a long way, relatively speaking.
- 8:07Yeah, there's going to be some, some volatility.
- 8:09It's a feature, not a bug. And just get used to it.
- 8:12It's all right because we're at this point where and Cooke and I
- 8:17talked about it after the close today.
- 8:21We're at this point. Where a lot of the risk.
- 8:24You know, a lot of things have been been de risked and when he
- 8:27talked about this past weekend in his space about, you know, if
- 8:33you have one satellite bricked or something bad happens, it's
- 8:36OK, the company can survive that.
- 8:38Like it's actually at some point we should all prepare ourselves
- 8:41for one satellite or two satellites or whatever it is
- 8:45like eventually not working, hopefully not in the way that
- 8:49the company approaches, you know, production and how they.
- 8:52Execute, I don't. I don't think that's a high
- 8:54likelihood, but it's it's possible, but that's not like a
- 8:58company ending type of, you know, event versus.
- 9:03If we had. Lost Blue Barker 3 during that
- 9:06period of uncertainty in the financial markets that could
- 9:09have been a an extinction type of event or maybe not
- 9:13extinction, but definitely, you know, the company would have
- 9:16been in a really tough spot and would have to raise money at
- 9:19really bad levels and you know, I don't even want to think about
- 9:22it but. But now we're at this point
- 9:24where? A lot of things have been de
- 9:26risked and a lot of a lot of things near term literally in
- 9:31the next few weeks are going to be de risked further.
- 9:33And so that's why I think the stock is a bit could.
- 9:37You to build a. Base and you've got this
- 9:38tailwind of of this administration wanting, you
- 9:43know, space superiority and. I I joke, I I tweet.
- 9:46Like, hey, it's not that hard guys.
- 9:47Just look at this. Which is true.
- 9:50It's it's. It's just like someone playing
- 9:54AI themes last year. You just buy these things and
- 9:57you just hold on to them. And it, it was funny because
- 9:59like, there's this one Twitter account who's a hedge fund guy.
- 10:03His name is Egg, century old egg credit or something like that.
- 10:07But he was, he had tweeted, Oh, maybe I should write a short
- 10:11thesis on AST. And then I responded to him.
- 10:13I was like, yes, please bring it on with, you know, with the the
- 10:18Montgomery Burns meme of him saying excellent, but and then
- 10:24cook kind of egged him on a little bit too, no pun intended.
- 10:26But then this guy was like, well, no, I'm not going to be
- 10:28short this thing. I'm actually going to be long.
- 10:30He's like, I don't believe in this company, but I'm not dumb.
- 10:34I'm going to be long AST heading into the SpaceX IPO.
- 10:38And that was actually a change in tone.
- 10:42And that's something that. I would expect right because of
- 10:44the hedge. Funds, I mean.
- 10:47For the smart guys who? Actually want to make money,
- 10:53even if you don't believe in something, the last thing you
- 10:56want to do is like short it, right?
- 10:57You don't want to short into a huge deluge of, of catalyst and
- 11:03tailwinds that are going to push a stock against you.
- 11:06And if you're really smart, if you can actually kind of get
- 11:09over your bias of I'm smarter than these retail guys and you
- 11:13know, I'm going to own this thing or I'll I'll figure out
- 11:16way adjust it ways to justify owning it.
- 11:19Then you actually go long and you make money, which it's
- 11:24pretty astounding. Like if you think about some of
- 11:27the short sellers over the years, whether it's Kerris Dale
- 11:31or yes, who is it? Gosh, I forget Lakeside Lake,
- 11:38Lake Lakeview capital, I forget their name, Anthony Boza or like
- 11:42any of these guys, right? Like they probably.
- 11:45Like for let's say. Kerrstale, for example, they
- 11:46wrote this long report and they made money.
- 11:49I think the stock went that day. They put the report out.
- 11:52They probably shorted at an average of 1110 bucks.
- 11:56Stock went down to like maybe 6 or 7.
- 11:58So they made like a decent amount of change.
- 12:01It was a one time thing. They made money and they
- 12:03probably traded it around here, there and probably took a
- 12:06little, a few crumbs here and there over the course of the
- 12:09years. So I remember like even after
- 12:12the Block One launch, they of course, Bloomberg interviewed
- 12:16them as part of this, the Seminole events and they're
- 12:18like, Oh yeah, we're, we don't think this changes anything.
- 12:21We're we're short. AST and I.
- 12:23Remember reading that. And I was just like.
- 12:25Oh, come on, really like you guys are around still, but I'm
- 12:28sure they've made like they probably made maybe 1-2 million
- 12:33dollars, $3,000,000. I mean they're they're not
- 12:35running a very big book. Their AUM is actually dwindled
- 12:38quite a bit. But I just didn't think like
- 12:42what happened? What would happen have happened
- 12:44if they or any of these bears, like for example, this guy
- 12:49Philip Lyle who works at SpaceX, he just continues to write.
- 12:53He's like a space enthusiast, but all he writes about is like
- 12:56negative shit on AST or Tim Farrar, Anybody listening to Tim
- 13:01Farrar? I mean, there's, there's a whole
- 13:02host of these people and they've just been writing negative stuff
- 13:06about the company. Like Tim Farrar has not written
- 13:091 positive thing for five years. But all these guys like they've
- 13:15spent so much time and energy fighting this company and the
- 13:20stock is like at 122 dollars. Like they wasted so much of
- 13:27their life dedicated to putting like fear, uncertainty, doubt,
- 13:33you know, hurting, trying to kneecap this company and it
- 13:36failed And and like me and you. We spent so much.
- 13:41We spent. You know, obviously more time
- 13:43than them. I don't know, some of them are
- 13:45pretty crazy, but but we have something to show for it.
- 13:48Like, we've made a ton of money. But these guys, they spent so
- 13:54much time like. You know, there, there.
- 13:56Was a point I'm at the. Age where if I spend too much
- 13:58time on Twitter my eyes start hurting.
- 14:00Like that's what these guys are doing.
- 14:02And they have nothing to show for it, right?
- 14:04Like they spent so much, you know, Tim Furrow talks about
- 14:08rent free. They spent so much time on it
- 14:11and it was for nothing. And so sometimes I think about
- 14:14that, I'm like, man, how, how shame does that feel?
- 14:17You must be, you know, it's it must be a really hollow feeling
- 14:21that you've dedicated precious time of your life, which is
- 14:26limited. And it's very valuable to
- 14:29spreading fear and certainly in doubt about this company.
- 14:32And and you were wrong and and they continue to do that.
- 14:37Today, right? Like the free speech?
- 14:40This other guy, like they, I don't know, it's, it's just,
- 14:43it's bizarre. But anyway, yeah, so, so today
- 14:49was pretty nuts. Like the fact that we hit 124.
- 14:53Like, on one hand, I was really happy and, you know, people were
- 14:58excited. On the other hand, it wasn't
- 15:00like, it wasn't like the time when Verizon, you know, when we
- 15:05started the deal with Verizon and we were gapping up every
- 15:07day. Now it kind of feels like, Oh
- 15:09yeah, that's that's what it should be doing.
- 15:12And and then I'm like, oh, well, you know, like tomorrow or next
- 15:15week, like I think we're going higher.
- 15:17So I don't back in the day when there was, you know, in 2022 and
- 15:232023-2024, I mean all those years.
- 15:26There was always this. Fear and kook kook is like he
- 15:31still has this PTSD like he's, he's like one of these guys who
- 15:35grew up during the depression, like he'll keep that mentality.
- 15:39And so when he sees the stock gap up or move up, he's always
- 15:43like, oh, he always has in the back of his mind like he's
- 15:45afraid that it'll come back down.
- 15:48And so he, it's unclear if he's good at handling the move up.
- 15:51And so, but for me, but, and, and especially now it's like
- 15:57that back in 2022 and 2023 that that happened for sure.
- 16:01Like the stock would move up and it was a trading vehicle and
- 16:03then it would it, it'd give up everything and move down and
- 16:07and. Of course, people.
- 16:09You know you'd have this like false dawn of oh man, things
- 16:12have changed. It's re rated and then and then
- 16:14of course, no, it's back then we thought oh these these these
- 16:19catalysts like getting blue arca three up.
- 16:20That's going to be a big unlock. No, it, the company was so early
- 16:25that it was a positive thing, but and you know, obviously
- 16:29there was like a, a positive reaction, but it was short lived
- 16:32because it was still early stage and early stage companies that
- 16:37trade in public markets, it can be tough, right?
- 16:40And so it's not sustainable, whereas now there's so many
- 16:46actual things that are happening and of course like the company's
- 16:50generating revenue and in this coming year, 2026 is going to be
- 16:53very big. Now we're experiencing what it
- 16:57feels like to be a more mature company, right where it's like,
- 17:00Oh yeah, these, these, these positive catalysts happen and
- 17:05the stock sustains and it keeps, it keeps like step functioning
- 17:08higher, like that's how it's supposed to work.
- 17:11And so, so yeah, I think, I think from a mental.
- 17:14Perspective it it, probably take it.
- 17:16For most of us baseball, it it's it's a big adjustment and I
- 17:21don't think it's something that it's probably going to take
- 17:24some. Time to get used to, but for me
- 17:28I think I'm already there. Where I'm just like, oh, OK,
- 17:30yeah, like we're going to keep moving up and I'm cool with
- 17:32that. So.
- 17:34I did want to cover a few small things and then we can get into
- 17:38some catalyst. And so one thing I wanted to
- 17:40talk about and I, you know, I try to avoid this, but I was
- 17:45like, you know, I'll talk about it.
- 17:46But recently there was like there's been like some political
- 17:51back and forth stuff on AST. And I just want to say like, I'm
- 17:57a nice person. I do have political views, but I
- 18:01don't share them. And I try to be very apolitical
- 18:04on Twitter because people, and this is my MO, right?
- 18:08Like when I post stuff on Twitter, it's focused on
- 18:13investment, investing, some life stuff, you know, like I'll share
- 18:18things that are, that are, that I find joy in sometimes, but I
- 18:21avoid politics because it's like this entire platform is full of
- 18:24politics. I don't want to, when people
- 18:29follow me and they, you know, they, I, I'm, they're not
- 18:34looking for, I hope they're not looking for a political advice
- 18:38or angle or view, because that's not what I'm about.
- 18:42Like, we're here for this specific platform and for what
- 18:45I'm doing. And what I find joy in doing is
- 18:48investing and sharing ideas and, and, you know, talking about my
- 18:52experiences and helping people out.
- 18:53If I can't, hopefully, hopefully it's helping people out, but I
- 18:57avoid politics, right? And I know people have reached
- 19:00out to me from time to time. And, you know, sometimes I'll
- 19:03comment like if something bad has happened, like when Charlie
- 19:07Kirk got murdered, I was like, man, that's really sad.
- 19:09Like people getting assassinated, that's not good.
- 19:13And then I got a bunch of blowback from people like what
- 19:17what about this person, that person?
- 19:18And it's like, I'm not a I'm not a political figure and that's
- 19:23not what I'm peddling, right? I just, I'm just making a
- 19:26comment as a human. But you know, it's like when
- 19:31people have asked me from time to time, like, hey, what about
- 19:34Palestine? What about Israel?
- 19:35Or what about? You know.
- 19:36The recent stuff that's going on and it's like, I'm not a I'm not
- 19:40a politician. I don't spend a lot of time
- 19:42delving into politics. I actually, if anything, I've
- 19:45moved away from politics because it's just too exhausting.
- 19:50But it's almost like that. It's almost like, what was it
- 19:56that that comedy skit with gosh, why am I forgetting his name?
- 20:01But it's it's a joke where everyone's like.
- 20:04Oh well. What?
- 20:04You know something bad happens and then it's like, well.
- 20:06What would job? Rules think and it's like who
- 20:10cares what Ja Rule thinks? Like for me too, it's like who
- 20:12cares? Men thinks like how I'm not an
- 20:14expert. I don't I don't follow current
- 20:17events closely enough to have an impactful opinion.
- 20:20And then someone who is of influence is not my job, nor do
- 20:24I desire to wield politics or try to influence people.
- 20:28Right. Like it's not Yeah, it's just
- 20:31something I avoid. And for me, like whether it's
- 20:35for the, the companies I've invested in, the friends that
- 20:38I've made, like I just try to put politics aside and, and for
- 20:41space mob, like there are people like in our, we do have some
- 20:45like Twitter chats and some other, you know, there's other
- 20:48groups like there's discord and others.
- 20:50Like one of the things that we all try to do is not like
- 20:53politics. The only times like politics
- 20:55actually comes into discussion is if it impacts your
- 20:59investment, right? And so if there's policy or
- 21:02legislation, then then yeah, you can talk.
- 21:05A bit about that. But when it comes to people's
- 21:08opinions about politics, like I avoid that stuff 'cause I'm the
- 21:11last thing I want to do is like start flooding people with my
- 21:14opinions on politics. And it's like if you seek that.
- 21:19First of all, like. Again, I'm just one person with
- 21:22a very unique background and experience and mine is very
- 21:26different than yours. And if you need political
- 21:29guidance from somebody else, then you're not doing it right.
- 21:33You got to think on your own. And, and so I think like for
- 21:37other people, yeah, if you're here to follow me, you're
- 21:41probably wanting to hear about AST Space Mobile or T1 Energy or
- 21:45or Bridger or some of these other investment ideas or new
- 21:48stuff or I'm going to talk about warrants on Friday and so.
- 21:52If you want to do politics like go follow the.
- 21:56You know the talking heads, that's not that's not me so and
- 22:00you know, people will try to make.
- 22:01Because I have a lot of. Followers like people try to
- 22:04sometimes make me feel bad and they're.
- 22:05Like, hey you? Well, you should.
- 22:06Stand up or you should do this or that.
- 22:07And it's like, no, I'm not, I'm not going to do that because
- 22:10that's not what people are following me for.
- 22:13If I became a pundit, then sure. But that's, you know, and I'm
- 22:17not going to. Yeah, sometimes I feel bad and
- 22:20it's like, maybe I should say something about this particular
- 22:22topic or another. But then I remind myself like,
- 22:24that's not I'm not here to peddle like certain views and
- 22:29make people feel awkward or like they need to follow me or like,
- 22:34Oh, I need to agree with him or I don't like that guy.
- 22:36Like he's, you know, he just agrees with me.
- 22:38And that's one that candidly, I think over the last five years,
- 22:45I've learned is that with space mob, there's people from all
- 22:48walks of life and I've learned to get along with everyone,
- 22:51right. And so because it's like we had
- 22:53this common interest, which is, you know, it's almost like our
- 22:56kid, this is company. And so I put, we put politics
- 23:00aside and ideology aside. And sometimes we disagree.
- 23:03Sometimes it can get messy. But at the same time, we all
- 23:07come together like we have this friendship and it's, it's
- 23:10bigger. It's beyond politics, right?
- 23:12And so you know, I. I respect people for their.
- 23:17Views and some and not, well, not everybody's every view, but
- 23:22but I just try to keep it tight into what I do, which is just
- 23:26investing. And so, so yeah, I just wanted
- 23:30to talk about that and I think, you know.
- 23:33If if there are people and I. By the way, like this is not a
- 23:37people can express views that they want to.
- 23:39They're free to do that. I'm not the I'm not the politics
- 23:42police like if. You are on Twitter.
- 23:46Doing investing and you want to have a political view and you
- 23:49want to go share it, then that's that's all you know, go ahead.
- 23:52That's that's fine, but there's probably a high chance that I'm
- 23:56not going to follow you because that's I'm trying to get away
- 23:59from that like that. I'm, I'm one of the people on
- 24:03Twitter where it's like, Hey, if you, if there's a way to just
- 24:06eliminate politics and like, one way to do that, for example, is
- 24:10to unfollow Elon Musk because then it's like.
- 24:12Oh, all of a sudden, like there's not as much.
- 24:14Political stuff going on, but you know, I try to follow just
- 24:18investment related accounts or accounts of interest.
- 24:22But yeah, that's, that's up to you and you can curate like who
- 24:25you want and that's fine. And I'm not again, I'm not here
- 24:29to push political views on anybody.
- 24:31I hope, I hope people don't feel that way.
- 24:33And and when I use like today, JD Vance dancing, it's not as if
- 24:37like I'm a huge fan of him or I hate him any of those things.
- 24:40I I just thought the meme was funny.
- 24:42So anyway, but that's my little blurb on politics.
- 24:47I have some people have asked me about, you know, why aren't you
- 24:50100% AST Space Mobile? Why do you talk about other
- 24:53investment ideas? And it's just my personal
- 24:56preference, like AST, I've told people in the past like it's
- 25:00probably 85% or more of my public securities portfolio.
- 25:06And so, but I'm a, I'm an investor by, by heart and that
- 25:10was my career. And so I've got to keep my mind
- 25:12fresh. And when there's interesting
- 25:14stuff out there like I'll go, I'll go.
- 25:17Research it. Share those.
- 25:19Ideas as well. And so, yeah, it's just part of
- 25:22my DNA and it's fun. Like maybe you, you're not going
- 25:25to find the next Asds, but you might find some interesting
- 25:27ideas. And then I like to share those.
- 25:29And and so hopefully those those are good ideas.
- 25:33Sometimes they don't work out. But one thing I've learned
- 25:36though, is, you know, I run a very concentrated portfolio.
- 25:39So I only have, you know, maybe 567 ideas of size.
- 25:45And then I might have some trades here and there.
- 25:47But excuse me. But one good thing about that is
- 25:52if you're sometimes like there can be a dearth of news or like
- 25:56on Asds, some, you know, some people fall into this trap of if
- 26:01you're 100% all in on Asds and the stock is up, then people,
- 26:06oh, why is the stock up? Or if it's heaven, yeah, heaven
- 26:10forbid the stock is down. Oh my gosh, why is it down?
- 26:12Why is it doing this? Like why where the algo is
- 26:14killing me and, and why is God forsaken me?
- 26:17It's like, no, it's, it's just part of market volatility.
- 26:20It's OK. And sometimes, like if you have
- 26:23a few other positions that you follow, then that doesn't, you
- 26:28don't feel this. Yeah, the, the the gravity of
- 26:33just one position where it's like, it's almost like a
- 26:35distraction. Like you have these other things
- 26:37that you're following as well. And so you know, if VS CS down,
- 26:43I don't, I mean making something up like if it's down five 6% and
- 26:46it's pretty brutal, but then this other position's up a few
- 26:49percent, then mentally you can kind of.
- 26:53Get yourself to this point where you're like, oh, there's
- 26:55something positive. Going on and I'll focus on that
- 26:57and not really worry about ASD because I know it's volatile and
- 27:00it may move for no reason. And so having a few other ideas
- 27:04can help mentally. And if anything, you know, like
- 27:09I've said, there are some people who, who are 100% concentration,
- 27:12which which is totally fine. Like I'm not, I'm not against
- 27:15that in any means. But sometimes you'll, you'll
- 27:19have these, these again, like these people who will, you know,
- 27:24every, they'll, they'll watch every tick and every tick has to
- 27:28be explained. And so sometimes it's good to
- 27:31have a distraction. And it doesn't have to be
- 27:32investing. Like, hey, you can go out and go
- 27:35fishing, go run, do other things like there's instead of just
- 27:40like being glued to your, to your computer and watching the
- 27:43stock prices all day. But anyway, but yeah, I, it's
- 27:47just part of who I am. Like I, I'm always looking at
- 27:50investment ideas and, and sharing them and, and just, it
- 27:54just happens. Like, there's quite a few
- 27:55interesting stuff, you know, interesting ideas.
- 27:58Going on right now so. Which which yeah, I enjoy.
- 28:04But anyway, going to the next topic, which is Catalyst and so,
- 28:11and that was the, the, the headline of this space, which
- 28:16is, you know, things are happening, it's happening,
- 28:19right? And so I think the first big one
- 28:21that I wanted to talk. About is this.
- 28:23Meeting with the FCC and so for those that saw I think it was
- 28:29January 23rd the company AT&T, Verizon, Firstnet and Dave
- 28:35Marshak who's a consultant who's been doing work for the company,
- 28:39they all met with the FCC and what was interesting about that
- 28:44meeting is that you know you. You have all the key.
- 28:48Stakeholders of the US that were there and this comes after you
- 28:54know the the company, the comment period for the US market
- 28:58application for supplemental coverage from space.
- 29:00That comment period ended, I think it was like October 6th
- 29:03and then there was like a short reply period and then response
- 29:07to that. Maybe it's like up until the
- 29:09second week of October, but I think it's and there's nothing.
- 29:14Typical, but usually you might have you know two to three month
- 29:20period where after the comments are closed then you'll have a
- 29:24decision potentially. And of course, like it depends
- 29:28on how complicated that decision is.
- 29:31But I mean, why is, you know, I was expecting that we would hear
- 29:36in regards or hear about our application sometimes towards
- 29:39the end of January or the first half of February.
- 29:41And so we're kind of there, right?
- 29:44And so that meeting, that meeting was on top of a few
- 29:49other meetings that have happened or letters or
- 29:51correspondence, but that's the type of meeting you want to see,
- 29:55right? So you have the stakeholders
- 29:57involved. Everyone shows up and it's not
- 29:59just like AT&T separately or Verizon separately, like they're
- 30:01there together. Which is pretty crazy.
- 30:05We we joke about, you know, the fact that they're, they're, you
- 30:09know, these. Two rivals are are sharing the
- 30:12same. Toothbrush or underwear, but.
- 30:14But yeah, that that's an important meeting, but it's
- 30:16important in the sense of. You know.
- 30:18This it's it kind of indicates like we're close to the end,
- 30:22right? Like maybe we're crossing the
- 30:24crossing the TS and dotting the IS the thing that you don't want
- 30:28to see in those meetings are and I looked at, you know, who the
- 30:31participants were. These were attorneys or, you
- 30:34know, representatives, but not the actual principles like.
- 30:38He didn't have John Stanky. Showing up or you know, senior
- 30:41executive showing up, but you had like, you know, attorneys
- 30:45there and, and they're basically kind of wrapping things up in my
- 30:49mind, right And so that's that's those are the types of people
- 30:52you want in that meeting. If you had the CEO of Verizon
- 30:55and AT&T showing up for that meeting, that would be a really
- 30:58bad sign, right? Or not a really bad sign, but
- 31:02it's not a good sign, right? Because when you have really
- 31:06senior people showing up for those meetings towards the end,
- 31:09that means like there's something wrong and things are
- 31:12not going the what you want. And so if a bell was there and
- 31:16and stinky and. I apologize.
- 31:19I forget since there's a new CEO at Verizon to forget his name
- 31:23and you just look at here. So Dan, Dan Schulman, if Dan
- 31:30Schulman was there, if those three guys were there, that
- 31:32would not be good, right? But you didn't have those guys
- 31:35there. You had the you had attorneys
- 31:37and, and whatever else representatives.
- 31:39And so that's positive. It's very positive, right?
- 31:41And then today, after that letter was, was found by Space
- 31:46mob, there was a letter from AAST to the FCC on some follow
- 31:51up items about, you know, interference limits and, and,
- 31:56and that that one seemed very much like, here's a few, here's
- 32:01a response. To some of your requests and it
- 32:03it. Seemed like they were.
- 32:03Just tightening things up. So I think we're pretty much
- 32:06there. I mean, we might see a few more
- 32:08letters and you know, it could be as soon as tomorrow, it could
- 32:12be Friday, it could be next week or could be a week, week after.
- 32:16But we're pretty damn close, right?
- 32:18And so but. What does that mean?
- 32:20Like I was talking to Kook about this earlier and it means that
- 32:26we will have just like, you know, by oh, by the way, like.
- 32:30Starlink just got approved for their directed device
- 32:33consolation. I guess it was like a.
- 32:34Week or two ago and and of course everyone has seen Brendan
- 32:40Carr his his positive comments about wanting to speed and be
- 32:44supportive of American innovation around directed
- 32:47device like not only cutting red tape for approvals but freeing
- 32:51up even more spectrum which. By the way, like.
- 32:53Starlink needs more spectrum for their solution to work, so
- 32:57obviously they went out and got some.
- 32:59But it's it looks like they're probably.
- 33:03Sorry, I'm just drinking some water.
- 33:04But it looks like they're. Probably advocating to get more
- 33:08spectrum freed up because, you know, I think their their
- 33:13solution is going to need it if they want to do broadband.
- 33:16But the fact that Sherman Carr is.
- 33:19You know, pounding the table that you know we want American.
- 33:21Leadership, he's talked about Starlink, he's talked about ASD
- 33:24space mobile, I mean the writings of the wall, like the
- 33:27approval's coming. It's just a matter of is it
- 33:31tomorrow, is it Friday, is it next week or the week after?
- 33:35Like we we say it's inevitable. And so that's going to be a huge
- 33:40watershed moment for the company because.
- 33:42For those that have been around. Since 2021-2022, like around
- 33:47that time, there, there were just so many naysayers who
- 33:51doubted that we would get U.S. market access, right?
- 33:55And so that's really valuable. Like Starlink has that, Amazon
- 34:00Leo has that, and of course the legacy guys have that, but
- 34:03there's no one else who has. That and it it's a long process,
- 34:06I mean the company. First of all, it's application I
- 34:10think back in 2019-2020. And so this is a long time
- 34:14coming, right? And so having that in hand, what
- 34:17does that do? It depends.
- 34:19Like if they give full approval that then, you know, we can
- 34:24start chunking up satellites without getting special
- 34:27temporary authorities, which is the way that, you know,
- 34:29basically waivers, which is the way we've been doing it.
- 34:32But yeah, they would the. The FCC would approve a
- 34:35constellation of 248 satellites and then.
- 34:38Like go ahead. Yeah, go ahead, go, go do it.
- 34:40And it's not just a matter of launching them, but then you can
- 34:43turn on commercial service, right, as long as you're not
- 34:46harming other people. And so that's a very valuable
- 34:48like just to give you an example if the company.
- 34:52You know, heaven forbid fell on hard.
- 34:54Times the fact that we have that.
- 34:59That agreement U.S. market access, so you could actually go
- 35:02sell that to somebody else or someone would have someone would
- 35:05acquire you to then take over your your slots.
- 35:09Of course you they they couldn't do something that's totally.
- 35:12Different, but within the parameters of that grant.
- 35:15They could then start a consolation.
- 35:18That, you know, had similar, you know, technologies and uses of
- 35:22frequencies and things like that, but that that's really
- 35:24valuable, right. And So what I mentioned, you
- 35:28know, when I had the conversation with Kook, it's
- 35:30like. OK, well what if we get?
- 35:31This approval what? What does that?
- 35:33Mean and candidly, like in terms of stock price, I.
- 35:38I couldn't tell you and he couldn't either, 'cause, you
- 35:42know, maybe. The stock is up 20 percent, 30%.
- 35:46Maybe it's. Flat, maybe it was expected and
- 35:49maybe it's it's like sells off a little bit, but.
- 35:53Over the long run or, or over the medium and long term, I
- 35:57mean, it's a huge positive, right, Because it's a it's, it's
- 36:00a point of validation and regulators around the world.
- 36:05Will look to it. Right, because the US is, is the
- 36:07leader right now because of what the company's doing and what
- 36:11Starlink's doing. And so when people look at
- 36:15regulatory frameworks, they they look for EU s s lead.
- 36:19And so once that happens, then I think the dam will break open
- 36:24where other regulators like, oh, OK, so these guys have approval
- 36:28that, that that gives me a framework to evaluate this and,
- 36:32and eventually lead to approval for use in, in Europe, in Asia,
- 36:36Africa, wherever it is. And so that's a really big deal.
- 36:40And I think for naysayers, that's, again, that's going to
- 36:44be a huge Seminole event. Where it's like, oh wow, they
- 36:47got it. And that could be a catalyst
- 36:51too, for some of these funds. I know Fidelity.
- 36:54Has a small position, but you know, it's it could be something
- 36:58where you have long only managers who are waiting for the
- 37:02company to get validation for the FCC.
- 37:04The basically the go ahead right to launch commercial service.
- 37:07And so that's where you might walk in one day and and
- 37:10Fidelity, the portfolio manager manager there is like, OK, I
- 37:14want to buy a 5% position in the company V wap it over 3 weeks
- 37:18and. And you'll have this period just
- 37:20like you know, we saw in 2024 where the stock like just keeps
- 37:24going up non-stop. And that's because like
- 37:26institutions are are buying. I mean the the thing about.
- 37:30Fidelity for those who don't know, like.
- 37:32They do have a limit, they can only buy up to 15% of a
- 37:35company's outstanding shares, but that's really big.
- 37:39Like they if they have conviction in a company, they
- 37:43will go. To or it's not 15, they go to.
- 37:4414.9999 and percent or whatever it.
- 37:47Is but but yeah, that could be a big.
- 37:50Unlock or not, could be it should be a big unlock for
- 37:55probably a lot of institutions that are seeing in the sidelines
- 37:58who still think like, oh, this company's pre revenue and they,
- 38:01they don't have a commercial US commercial market access yet.
- 38:06And then when that happens, it's like, oh, the, the, the
- 38:08narrative completely changes, right?
- 38:10Because then it's like, wow, they, they actually got it done.
- 38:13The FCC is comfortable with the parameters in which they're
- 38:17operating in the technology and it's happening.
- 38:21It's not a pipe dreamer anymore. So, so that that is a very big
- 38:24catalyst. And when I think it was like a
- 38:27week ago. Actually, it wasn't a week ago.
- 38:29It was early. Was it yeah, maybe it was a week
- 38:32ago or no, it was the other day and and a week ago when I was
- 38:36like, oh, I'm adding torques like just some speculative
- 38:38upside. I was adding in part because of
- 38:42that. And then of course some of these
- 38:44other cows too, right. And so for those.
- 38:47For people that don't know, like I have a a large core position
- 38:51that I just don't touch in the company and then I do, I do
- 38:54trade around some shares. And some options as well.
- 38:58Most of that, most of that will happen in like retirement
- 39:01accounts because it's tax advantage, But I also do that in
- 39:04cash account. But I, I do that not as if you
- 39:08know, when I, when I, because there are some people who are
- 39:11like, whoa, why are you buying it 120 or whatever?
- 39:14You know, when I don't think I bought it 120, I think I bought
- 39:16it like at 112 is the highest I've paid recently and then like
- 39:21one O 11-O2 those those areas, but.
- 39:24Yeah, it's like, oh, well, I'm playing some of these catalysts,
- 39:27right? Because because of the great due
- 39:30diligence that face mop is is done, like we know that some of
- 39:33these things are coming up. And so I expect some something
- 39:35positive to happen, right? And so those catalysts are, for
- 39:39example, like BB6, you've got a whole host of people that are
- 39:43following the. The, the satellite and you know
- 39:47how much Dragon's experiencing because we've learned, and this
- 39:50is through due diligence, whether it was Blue Walker 3 and
- 39:56then of course, Block 1 satellites.
- 39:58You know, there's this, this pattern.
- 39:59I mean, it's not going to be perfect because these satellites
- 40:01are much bigger and they have a different unfolding mechanism,
- 40:04but there's some tail signs to know.
- 40:07When the satellite has unfolded. And if that's been successful,
- 40:11right? And Katzie did this in the early
- 40:15days for the Locker 3, where people were kind of, you know,
- 40:20they're biting their nails, right?
- 40:22So we were all wondering if the satellite was OK, if it had
- 40:25detumbled, detumbled, meaning it's stable and it's in the
- 40:28proper orbit. It's not like, you know, rolling
- 40:31over, end over and, or any of that stuff.
- 40:34And so that there, there is a way to kind of track these
- 40:38things. And, and in particular for the
- 40:40previous generation satellites, there was, you know, the, the
- 40:44initial unfold, which is in the bar configuration where if you
- 40:47can imagine your left and right arms go out for your body and
- 40:51that's the bar configuration. And then then your arms from
- 40:55there the, the array unfolds in two directions up and down.
- 41:00And so, but here for this, as we've speculated with block 2,
- 41:05it'll just be one large arm that goes out and then it will unfold
- 41:07in One Direction. So it's much, it's much simpler
- 41:11in design and so prone to less risk of complications.
- 41:15But you know, we'll have to see how that looks in terms of, you
- 41:20know, the data. And then once we see that, then
- 41:24you can apply that for future satellites, for Block 2
- 41:27satellites because they all will follow the kind of same pattern.
- 41:29But but yeah, that speculation is going on.
- 41:31I mean, BB 6 should be unfolding relatively soon or perhaps part
- 41:36of it is unfolded. There's been some speculation
- 41:38that. You know this satellite in
- 41:40particular has also. A.
- 41:42A tail that has a solar array for extra power.
- 41:48I think there's some speculation that maybe that's happened, but
- 41:50you know, the company is going to release it when it does and
- 41:54we'll get APR and and I'm not sure if they'll actually show
- 41:57video. Of it, they did show a little
- 42:00bit of it. Last time but.
- 42:02The the unfolding mechanism for this current design.
- 42:07Is is they? Want to keep it as proprietary
- 42:10as possible. So I'm not sure we'll see any
- 42:12video, but maybe we'll see a picture or two.
- 42:14But I I would expect. That to happen any moment so so
- 42:17that's exciting and then of course we've got Bluebird 7
- 42:21launch that's going to happen no earlier than the end of
- 42:24February. And so just want to remind
- 42:26people in in space speak no earlier means that the best, the
- 42:33best date something will go is at that set time.
- 42:36And so when you they say no earlier than the end of
- 42:39February, it could be February 2627, but then it's also most
- 42:45part or it's likely to happen sometime thereafter.
- 42:48So it could be March 1st, March 2nd, March 3rd.
- 42:51As we know, like launches are impacted by weather as because
- 42:56you want to have optimal conditions, especially for
- 42:59launching, you know, satellites that are lower, yeah, that are
- 43:05bigger in size and, and of course that are worth more to
- 43:08your constellation, You want to be very careful.
- 43:11The reason why Starlink doesn't do that or SpaceX doesn't do
- 43:14that is that they're, they're, they're checking up like batches
- 43:18and batches of these things. And so they the, the standard of
- 43:22when they will launch, whether you know, impact the impact of
- 43:26weather or solar flares or things like that, it's not as
- 43:29much of A consideration, but for us it is.
- 43:32And so, you know, I would expect that we'll launch maybe for
- 43:36Lucky by the end of February, but it's probably going to be
- 43:39really early March for BB7. And then the other things to
- 43:44look out for are batch 1 and batch 2, which are the, the, the
- 43:47tube, the, the pair of threes that will go up on Falcon 9.
- 43:52And sorry, I forgot to mention BB7.
- 43:55Most of you guys know this, but we'll be going up on Blue Origin
- 43:58New Glenn 3, which will be interesting because that's
- 44:01that's a new vehicle. They're reusing the booster.
- 44:05Never tell me the odds. And so part of the the Blue
- 44:08Origin program is to demonstrate and prove that they can reuse
- 44:13these boosters have a pretty quick turn around time and be
- 44:15successful doing that. And so this is going to be a
- 44:18very important mission for them and of course important for us.
- 44:21And then, you know, we should at some point see the shipment of
- 44:27two batches of three Bluebirds down to Florida.
- 44:30And there's, there's a number of theories of why that's taking
- 44:33longer than expected. I mean, the the most visible
- 44:37part would be that there's quite a bit of backup down at the
- 44:41Cape. You've got processing with the
- 44:44manned Falcon 9 mission that's going to the space station.
- 44:48And then you've, you know, you've got Starship, they're
- 44:50preparing to, to launch that as well.
- 44:52And so processing payloads, you don't, you wouldn't send down
- 44:55satellites if they weren't, excuse me, if the processing,
- 45:01you know, facilities were not ready to handle those.
- 45:04And so, you know, and, and I think obviously the company
- 45:07wants to avoid saying, well, we're ready, but SpaceX is not
- 45:11ready or vice versa. Maybe we aren't ready that
- 45:13they're ready, but you never want to, you know, you never
- 45:16want to throw your, your ride, your, your launch provider into
- 45:19the bus. And so, but I expect that to
- 45:22happen soon. And then of course, like we've
- 45:24got, we've got more golden Dome stuff that could be coming.
- 45:29I, I sent out this meeting today about the eventuality of Nancy
- 45:36Pelosi and Timmy Tuberville for our foreign listeners.
- 45:41These are two US senators. Pelosi, I think her, her
- 45:46reputation procedure, she's probably one of the best traders
- 45:49of all time, probably helped by the fact that she has inside
- 45:52information as a politician in the US, we don't have proper
- 45:57rules and, and controls in place to keep politicians from using
- 46:02their, their, their positions of privilege to using that to
- 46:08profit. And so, you know, there are
- 46:11these like investment services that follow the trades of
- 46:14politicians, which these politicians like, they'll report
- 46:17their trades, but it's on a delayed basis.
- 46:20And so you'll find out they might have a new position in the
- 46:22company, but it might be weeks in some cases.
- 46:25This one politician, I think it was like a news article today.
- 46:28She didn't disclose her trade until 100 days later.
- 46:31And she got slapped a fine of like a few 100 bucks.
- 46:33But anyway. But yeah, Nancy Pelosi and then
- 46:37Timmy Tuarel, Tommy Tuarel, who was a former coach at University
- 46:42of Alabama, He's he's a senator from Alabama, but he also has
- 46:47his penchant for very profitable trades.
- 46:50But I, I pointed that out as kind of a joke.
- 46:52But it's actually, I would expect we probably start seeing
- 46:57some politicians buy some space names, whether it's HT or Rocket
- 47:01Lab or some of these other names.
- 47:03Just given all the movement around Golden Dome, the NDAA.
- 47:07And then of course, like the various, you know, legislation
- 47:10that's being pushed around and, and, and money being granted, I
- 47:15would not be surprised to see some senators and, and
- 47:19representatives in the House like pick up positions in ASD.
- 47:23I'd be shocked quite candidly. I think it would be too hard for
- 47:28any of them to, to not have that itchy trigger finger and get
- 47:35involved. And so I I think.
- 47:38We should probably expect. That in the coming few months,
- 47:40especially after the FCC you know, grants U.S. market
- 47:44application. And there's probably.
- 47:48You know, some politicians who are close to who see that coming
- 47:51down the Pike and they're like, hey, I'm going to buy that, buy
- 47:53in front of that. So, yeah, it's, it's I, I think
- 47:59one, one thing that I try to remind people is that, and this
- 48:04is kind of related to politics, it's like, you know, this
- 48:06administration is focused on space.
- 48:09They want Golden Dome to be a reality before Trump leaves
- 48:12office. And so there's a kind of
- 48:14tailwinds, right? And actually, let me see, one of
- 48:19our space mob guys who works at a hedge fund shared this with me
- 48:22today, which I'm going to tweet out later.
- 48:24But it's, there's a study, I think McKinsey and Goldman Sachs
- 48:30did this study where they think the global space economy will be
- 48:33worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from 630 billion in 2023.
- 48:40And so, yeah, it's, it's kind of interesting because I think as
- 48:45most of us know, for the last several years, space was aside
- 48:48from SpaceX, which is, which was.
- 48:50Deemed the only. You know, serious company that
- 48:55was doing anything of that. Of note, all these other
- 48:58companies were kind of just too early in the stage of
- 49:00development or space is too small.
- 49:02It's very niche, but it's becoming mainstream and there
- 49:06are real investment dollars that are I mean it's happening now,
- 49:11right? Like you can tell the fact that
- 49:15was it, Trump signed the executive order for space
- 49:18superiority and he was like, I go back, but I think it was like
- 49:22the second or third week of December that came out and I
- 49:27could probably put an index together of all the space names.
- 49:29But you know, at that time, for example, AST was at 65 bucks
- 49:33because I remember vividly, like the stock had pulled back and
- 49:36then he signed the executive order and of course it was
- 49:39pretty volatile. It was interesting.
- 49:41We actually had this, I've talked about this before, but we
- 49:45moved away from these like three peaks, like 3 impulse moves to
- 49:48now we're just for the technical guys out there.
- 49:52We're on this like channel. All the way up.
- 49:55It's been, it's actually if you look at the early December, you
- 50:00know we've, we've made higher highs and higher lows, right.
- 50:04And so since that point in time, if you look at like any other
- 50:08space names, just look at the other space proxy.
- 50:12And I've mentioned this before, like Rocket Lab and AST
- 50:15basically not well, not all the time, but they, they do trade on
- 50:19top of one another. Like if, if AST is positive for
- 50:23the day and Rocket Labs down and AST stays positive, then Rocket
- 50:26Lab will eventually kind of, you know, recover.
- 50:30And vice versa, if AST is having a bad day, but Rocket Lab got
- 50:33upgraded, AST will eventually recover too.
- 50:36Or if one goes down, then the other one kind of goes down.
- 50:39And that's. Like day-to-day, but then over
- 50:43over like a longer time period. Obviously those two stocks have
- 50:47have the performance is is different a bit, but they
- 50:50actually do trade somewhat in line.
- 50:52And so I you know, when you look at the space industry and kind
- 50:55of newer space companies, I kind of view AC and Rocket Lab as as
- 51:00the kind of the two big proxies of the sector.
- 51:03Of course, other companies have have performed pretty well too,
- 51:06but since that December, you know, the executive order for
- 51:11space and priority. I mean, Rocket Lab was in the
- 51:1350s. Now it's like it 89.
- 51:15It's been flirting with 100. I mean, it did touch 100.
- 51:18But I think for some of these short sellers, and I've
- 51:22mentioned this before, like, you know, one thing you don't want
- 51:26to do is you don't want to be short names.
- 51:30However, you know, you depending on you can debate like the level
- 51:35quality of the names, but you don't want to short a sector
- 51:37that is thematically the place to be right and that space.
- 51:42And that's going to be that's going to be true heading into
- 51:46the SpaceX IPO. And then what happens after that
- 51:48IPO is unclear, but the demand is going to be there for for the
- 51:53entire sector. And so for people like I see TUT
- 51:58capital author for guys like valuations who shorted the
- 52:01company, I think looking at his post, I think he was short at 50
- 52:05at some point and maybe he's he was short at 70 like he's down
- 52:08big, right? And.
- 52:11You, you don't, I mean, it's one thing to kind of pick at a
- 52:15company in particular, but when the secular, secular trends are
- 52:20so powerful, you just don't want to be short those names.
- 52:24And then on the flip side, like you actually want to be long.
- 52:26And so I mentioned that one Twitter account who was saying
- 52:30he was skeptical of the company. He called it ask mobile or
- 52:33something. And then Kook was like, well,
- 52:36are you going to short it? And he was like, no, I'm going
- 52:38to go long because because I'm like, that's the trade.
- 52:42You need to be long AST and some of these other companies heading
- 52:45into the SpaceX IPO. And this is what I was talking
- 52:48about before where it's like the smart guys to understand how to
- 52:51make money and trade. They will be long and that's
- 52:54going to be the consensus trade, right?
- 52:56And so, and that's why I tell people over the last few weeks
- 53:00like have a plan right when, when the bankers, I think Musk
- 53:05was trying to pull the IPO forward to like June, because
- 53:08it's going to line up with some I, I can't, I, I don't remember.
- 53:14It's like some planetary things, but and his birthday.
- 53:17So he wants to have that happen to happen in June, which is
- 53:20actually pretty quick because they're going to have to file
- 53:24the, the S1, the IPO prospectus and then go through an SEC
- 53:27review. My guess is that the SEC is
- 53:30going to try to push that through pretty quickly just
- 53:32given how special, you know, Musk is and is how close he is
- 53:36to the administration. So maybe it happens in June, but
- 53:39if not, like we're probably looking at July.
- 53:41And then if it doesn't happen in July, I mean, I think this
- 53:44company has the pool to still be to do an A successful IPO in
- 53:49August, but you typically want to stay away from an August and
- 53:52September offering because people are away for holiday.
- 53:57But yeah, that's that's why I think, you know, making sure
- 54:02that you have a plan because, you know, Kevin Mack had talked
- 54:08about this before, but and, and I agree with him that the
- 54:11ingredients for AST to become an S rank in in anime, there's this
- 54:16idea you can pick any number of of, you know, series, whether
- 54:22it's like One Punch Man or a solo leveling.
- 54:25But you know, there's there's this this this schema for
- 54:29ranking heroes and and also for, you know, evil guys, which is
- 54:34like C rank is a low, you know, D there's D rank is low CBA, you
- 54:40know, if you're a rank hero, like that's really high.
- 54:42But then there's like the exceptional ones where there may
- 54:45be, I don't know, like 200 A ranked heroes who have these
- 54:48different capabilities, but S ranked, there might be just 10
- 54:50in the world, right. And so when Mac was talking
- 54:53about this idea that AST could achieve S rank in terms of a
- 54:59cult stock. And that's not to be confused
- 55:04with like something bad, but something that's like for
- 55:08Palantir or Tesla where the company has like this this Halo
- 55:13effect where people want to own it.
- 55:17They believe in the mission and the company is doing, you know,
- 55:19extraordinary things. And and it's not valuation isn't
- 55:22just predicated on the next one 2-3 years, but it's like on the
- 55:27potential of what the company could do, right?
- 55:28So an ASD fits that in spades, right?
- 55:31Where you have this this communications platform that is
- 55:35going to deliver commercial service, you know, broadband
- 55:38data to to any 3 GPPD device, whether that's a mobile phone,
- 55:44you know, a drone, a computer car, any, any, any device that
- 55:51can work on a cellular network. But then you also have these use
- 55:55cases of, you know, on the military side, so sensing radar,
- 56:01you know PNT position navigation timing, basically GPS backup
- 56:05electronic warfare. I mean, there's, so there's a
- 56:07whole host of capabilities that this consolation can offer and
- 56:13there's, you know, there's applications that we haven't
- 56:15thought of yet, right? And so that's when you, you
- 56:18know, it's like NVIDIA too, where it's like you for the
- 56:23people who are, I guess who, who can't think outside the box,
- 56:27they just see the applications that are right in front of their
- 56:29face, but then they can't extrapolate that and see what
- 56:33else is out there that can grow the Tam, right?
- 56:36And so for that type of situation, I remember like back
- 56:39in, gosh, what was it 2020-2021 when it was on ISS discord and
- 56:47people were talking about Palantir and I like had no idea
- 56:50what Palantir would do. Like what, what it meant, Like
- 56:52what is what is Palantir? I didn't understand the business
- 56:57model or what value they were adding.
- 56:58And so I just, I was lazy. I just didn't do any work on it.
- 57:01But of course, like for the people that did, they were
- 57:03highly rewarded. And so, and for Tesla, like the,
- 57:08the bears have been like, oh, that's, it's another auto
- 57:10company. It should be valued like Ford
- 57:13and GM, but it's like, no, they're, they're not, they're
- 57:15they're doing, it's not just electric cars, but they're doing
- 57:19robo taxis, which is, you know, that's going to eat into Uber
- 57:22and and Lyft and these other services.
- 57:24And then, of course, like today, you just had Musk say that
- 57:27they're going to stop production of the S&X Tesla vehicles and
- 57:33they're going to allocate that production line to building the
- 57:36robots by the end of this this year.
- 57:37Now, obviously, like if that actually when and if that
- 57:42actually happens, we'll see. But you know, Tesla is much more
- 57:47than just cars. It's, it's, you know, of course
- 57:50they're investing, what is it, $2 billion into XAI.
- 57:54And so, and if you talk to like people who are really close to
- 57:57Tesla, there's all these other things that the company's doing
- 58:00that be candidly that I don't follow Tesla that closely.
- 58:03Like I, I'm just not aware. And so, you know, for a, a
- 58:06layperson, they just think of Tesla as one particular thing
- 58:09and that's it. And similarly, that's true for
- 58:12AST where I think most people from the outside look in,
- 58:15they're like, oh, those guys are doing something with their
- 58:17mobile phone and that's it. And it's like, no, there's
- 58:20actually these massive defense markets.
- 58:24And then you, you can think about AST as just this big
- 58:27communications platform that sits out in space.
- 58:29And then, and then you, you know, over the past, was it 2
- 58:35months? Like for people really digging,
- 58:37it's like, OK, well, if you like data centers, then you're going
- 58:41to love ASD. It's like, you know, the, the
- 58:43satellite can generate 120 kilowatts of power.
- 58:46It's got the, the phased array or the, the microns, which house
- 58:51a phase array on the bottom earth facing side and and solar
- 58:54panels on the the outer facing side.
- 58:58It has built in heat dissipation, which is like one
- 59:00of the biggest issues for for AI data centers.
- 59:04And of course in each Micron you have Fpgas currently, but but
- 59:08ASICS that are being integrated in in the first quarter.
- 59:12But then you could see. You know, NVIDIA GP US or TP US,
- 59:19you know, Tensor, TP US or other ASICS for data applications.
- 59:23And so this is the type of stuff where the people who really
- 59:27understand the potential of the company and the IP that they've
- 59:31built, it goes beyond just communications and the military
- 59:34is recognized as they understand that.
- 59:37And you know, the company understands this too.
- 59:39It's like, OK, we're at 500,000 square feet of production
- 59:43capacity or manufacturing floor space.
- 59:46We're looking for even more. And so we're going to be ramping
- 59:51from six satellites per month, which which you know, they
- 59:54haven't publicly acknowledged that.
- 59:56But of course, in recent filings, we know that they're
- 59:59already there. But then you know Scott has
- 1:00:02talked about. Getting that to 10 satellites to
- 1:00:0612 satellites per month. So why do you need the extra
- 1:00:10satellites? Like, OK, you're going to pull
- 1:00:12forward the big band constellation, but there's also
- 1:00:15this idea of a government shell, which which he's talked about.
- 1:00:19And so these are all little Nuggets, right?
- 1:00:21And it's it, it helps the the story move beyond just what the
- 1:00:29the general public sees, right? And so that's where this whole
- 1:00:33idea of what what Mac was saying is that reaching S class or S
- 1:00:38rank where it's the company is not getting it.
- 1:00:43It's, it's going beyond just getting credit for the core
- 1:00:46business, but it's for the extra stuff that's going to happen
- 1:00:49like these other markets, which eventually great candidly, like
- 1:00:53could become bigger than the core market, right?
- 1:00:55It's like the NVIDIA example of, well, we're just like a niche
- 1:00:59GPU company for gamers. And then all of a sudden, you
- 1:01:04know, a few years later, they are the, the heart and the core
- 1:01:08of the AI revolution. It's like NVIDIA chips, right?
- 1:01:12Like who would have thought? Like if you'd asked somebody, I
- 1:01:14mean, Jensen Wong probably knew, but if you'd asked someone 1520
- 1:01:18years ago, Oh yeah, these graphic cards that you're using
- 1:01:21to play Civilization or Quake or Doom, like it's actually those,
- 1:01:26those chips are going to be optimized to run inference and
- 1:01:31training and, you know, various AI applications.
- 1:01:34It's pretty, pretty crazy. So.
- 1:01:37So yeah, that. When when talking about ASD
- 1:01:41series mobile. You know I've.
- 1:01:42Seen like a few bear posts where people are like, oh it's trading
- 1:01:46at so many multiples to $14 million of revenue which they
- 1:01:49reported last quarter. It's like.
- 1:01:52Who? Who are you like?
- 1:01:54What nobody who is a serious investor invest based off of
- 1:01:59historic results, right? Everyone's always looking to for
- 1:02:05future results or future potential future results,
- 1:02:08meaning if the companies were established and maybe I'm
- 1:02:11looking at next year's revenue projections and earnings or
- 1:02:15maybe 2 years out. Or if it's for let's take smart
- 1:02:19modular reactors or quantum computers.
- 1:02:23Like you're looking at these things more like biotech
- 1:02:26companies, right? Where you're, you're looking at
- 1:02:28the Tam, you're seeing how much could they potentially capture
- 1:02:32in 456710 years? And then discounting, you know,
- 1:02:37discounting that back by some high discount rate, but that's
- 1:02:42how people invest, right? Like you're the company's got a
- 1:02:45lot of promise. But you know, for AC, for
- 1:02:48example, we've got we've got Scotia Bank who is the the bear
- 1:02:53on the street. He's projecting like $11 billion
- 1:02:57of free cash flow. I think.
- 1:02:59I mean their numbers are his numbers are kind of nuts.
- 1:03:01I think it's like by 2030 or 2031, someone astutely pointed
- 1:03:05out that that would put AST in the top ten of all public
- 1:03:09companies in terms of free cash flow generation.
- 1:03:13But that's, you know that that is like the that's that's what
- 1:03:18we're going for, right? Like for AST in particular, it's
- 1:03:21not just commercial markets, it's defense, it's like first
- 1:03:24responder stuff. And then it's also these other
- 1:03:26applications that some that we haven't even thought about,
- 1:03:32right, like going back to the AI data center idea like that, that
- 1:03:38in particular like we're going to have all the satellite
- 1:03:40production capacity ramped up. And once the constellation is
- 1:03:43done, like, yeah, you're going to need to build a few
- 1:03:45satellites here and there for maintenance.
- 1:03:48But all that production and know how and trained people and and
- 1:03:51automation and patents and. Basically all the key.
- 1:03:55Building blocks of what you need to make a 5/6 ton satellite
- 1:03:59that's going to do AI applications out in space and
- 1:04:03we're going to have it and it's going to be there.
- 1:04:06And, and you know, we have, we have a partnership with Google
- 1:04:10currently and Google is working and, and this is not a knock on
- 1:04:13planet great. Like they're going to do,
- 1:04:17they're going to send up one NVIDIA GPU in probably like a
- 1:04:22planet bus. And they're going to specialize
- 1:04:24it that satellite too, so it can handle, you know, handle thermal
- 1:04:29load and, and dissipate heat and do all that stuff to power it.
- 1:04:32But these are like tiny, tiny cube sats, right?
- 1:04:37And so when it comes time to, once they figure out what they
- 1:04:40want to do, like who are they going to go to?
- 1:04:42Google does not make satellites. And they could go to a prime,
- 1:04:45they could go to a Lockheed Martin or one of these other
- 1:04:48guys. And, and they're going to be
- 1:04:49like, Oh yeah, man, we'll do that for you for cost plus.
- 1:04:52And you know, we're going to, the way that we work, we'll,
- 1:04:56we'll deliver that satellite to you in one to two years.
- 1:04:59And then maybe most likely that'll be like 3 to 4 years.
- 1:05:03And anytime you want to change, you have a change in the order
- 1:05:06like you're going to pay us for it.
- 1:05:07And it's going to take a lot of turn around time versus like AST
- 1:05:11where it's a startup, you have that startup culture and a
- 1:05:15company like Google or Amazon or Blue Origin, Microsoft, whoever
- 1:05:21it is, they could come to the company and say, hey, I want to
- 1:05:24do this and I need your help. And the company will be like,
- 1:05:27hey, sure, like we've got capacity and we can do it.
- 1:05:30And, you know, I'm not sure what the business model would be if
- 1:05:33we would, it would be a one and done thing where we build that
- 1:05:38satellite for them, a consolation and then we hand it
- 1:05:40over. Or we are actually, I mean,
- 1:05:42ideally you would they pay you for it and then you would have
- 1:05:45some ongoing service revenues, which you probably, I mean, for
- 1:05:50those companies, you probably need an operator to, you know,
- 1:05:55for command and control and to, to manage consolation because,
- 1:06:00you know, you have to be pretty active in terms of collision
- 1:06:02avoidance and making sure that everything's running smoothly
- 1:06:07again, for, for these companies. Like they're not, that's not
- 1:06:11their bread and butter. So anyway, but yeah, I, I'm
- 1:06:16realizing that it's 12 or 7. I'm going to end it there.
- 1:06:21But yeah, I just, I just wanted to get people together.
- 1:06:24I haven't talked about AST exclusively in quite some time.
- 1:06:26So I wanted to do that, especially in light of us
- 1:06:30hitting this big milestone in terms stock price.
- 1:06:34I do think that we are at this point where, yeah, you know,
- 1:06:39we're going to have drawdowns and maybe the stock goes back to
- 1:06:42100 at some point, but it's not going back to 50.
- 1:06:45And so if you look at like the strength of it, I know Cook and
- 1:06:52Tut were like, oh, it seems very strong today.
- 1:06:54Why, why is that? You know, I do think that there
- 1:06:58are more, there is more institutional buying.
- 1:07:01Obviously we've seen short interest come down quite a bit.
- 1:07:04And so we're kind of at the, the inflection point like this is
- 1:07:08the year you've got tailwinds of the administration being focused
- 1:07:12on this. You've got Golden Dome and then
- 1:07:14of course the company calloused on their own right, the
- 1:07:17launching of satellites couldn't the launch of commercial
- 1:07:21operations and service beta test and then of course full
- 1:07:24commercial service. You also have any number of
- 1:07:28things whether it's more different agreements.
- 1:07:30We, we just saw today, I saw yesterday Biasat got
- 1:07:35$188,000,000 XM loan for US from, you know, U.S. government
- 1:07:40XM loan to build 1 satellite. And so, you know, we do have our
- 1:07:45application for $500 million and I'm not sure if that's for if
- 1:07:50that will be for satellites or it will be for manufacturing.
- 1:07:53But either way, like I think that's going to be or that's
- 1:07:58probably somewhat ripe like we, we should hear back on that.
- 1:08:02But yeah, there's, there's a lot of catalysts that are coming.
- 1:08:05And so I think the strength in the stock is reflective of that.
- 1:08:09And there's people, you know, there was actually there's one.
- 1:08:14I got to look and see if I can find it.
- 1:08:15But there's one institutional investor that's on Twitter that
- 1:08:18writes quite a bit. And he had written.
- 1:08:21This. Is like back at 105 or 104 or
- 1:08:24something like that. And he had written that he had
- 1:08:26bought stock and someone was like, why'd you buy stock?
- 1:08:28And he's like, Oh yeah, if you walked stock over the day and
- 1:08:31they're like, why'd you buy? It's like at an all time high.
- 1:08:33And and his response is like, oh, it's interesting,
- 1:08:36interesting now, like I got to own it and this is a concept.
- 1:08:40I'll end it with this. You know, I was talking to Kook
- 1:08:43about it this evening Where when you, you know, the the company
- 1:08:48is now you just look at this market cap company is now at $45
- 1:08:55billion in market cap. And you have TMT investors who
- 1:09:01are waiting anxiously for the SpaceX IPO and and obviously
- 1:09:06they want a piece of Starlink, but there's this other company
- 1:09:10where, you know, is a technological leader and has
- 1:09:14this big opportunity. And it's a pureplay way to play
- 1:09:17this particular market. It's going to be something that
- 1:09:20people will need to own. And if they miss it, they're
- 1:09:22going to be in big trouble, right?
- 1:09:24And so they're going to, and I think that's what we're seeing
- 1:09:27now where you're seeing pretty strong buying in the company.
- 1:09:32And that's only going to increase with FCC approval of,
- 1:09:37you know, the market application for the company.
- 1:09:39And then, of course, as this as the constellation launches, I
- 1:09:42can't tell you like what it is specifically for each long only,
- 1:09:46but you know, let's say someone's waiting for
- 1:09:51consolation to get to 20 or 25 and or initial commercial
- 1:09:55service to start. And so that's the the day that
- 1:09:57they they start pressing the buy button or maybe it's the FCC
- 1:10:01application getting approved. And so there's all these things
- 1:10:04that are going to happen over the course of the year where
- 1:10:06you're going to have people coming in to buy the stock
- 1:10:08because as someone who's focused on TMT or if you're a tech or
- 1:10:12growth or whatever it is, right? Like this is a company, you
- 1:10:16can't, you can't miss or you're going to look like a complete
- 1:10:19idiot, right? And so it's almost like it's
- 1:10:22like we joke about schmuck insurance.
- 1:10:24It's like, oh, I need to own. Some part of this?
- 1:10:27And it's why I like, you know, heading into the end of
- 1:10:30quarters, you'll see like some big winners spike even more
- 1:10:33because people don't want to look like they missed it.
- 1:10:39They missed a name. And so into quarter end buying
- 1:10:43like some losers, by the way, will will drop even more because
- 1:10:45people are like, I don't want this to be on my books.
- 1:10:47And people don't know like, I lost money on this thing and
- 1:10:50vice versa. Like if there's big winners,
- 1:10:52they they don't want to miss it. And so we're at this point where
- 1:10:55that's starting to happen. And I think it will get you to
- 1:10:58happen. So So yeah, I'll end it with
- 1:11:00that. I mean, the next few months are
- 1:11:02going to be very interesting, as I said before, because of all
- 1:11:05these ingredients, you know, macro and company specific, the
- 1:11:13the stock has the potential to perform and or outperform, you
- 1:11:19know, higher than even what you or I expect.
- 1:11:23And so I think that's potentially in the cards and
- 1:11:25it's what, you know, Kevin Mack was referring to where you have
- 1:11:30this, you know, the, the the company elevates to this level.
- 1:11:35That's that's special that it. Doesn't.
- 1:11:38It's not hindered by traditional valuation metrics and and people
- 1:11:42really are investing on the potential of the core business,
- 1:11:45but all these other things that that that the market is not
- 1:11:50seeing, but that you and I see. So anyway, I'll end it there.
- 1:11:54I'm going to try to go to bed at a reasonable time, although
- 1:11:57there is, I am tempted to potentially go to bed late and
- 1:11:59see if I can, if I can replicate the what happened yesterday.
- 1:12:05I am wearing the same clothes to, to go to bed.
- 1:12:08So maybe, maybe it'll happen. But anyway, thanks everyone for
- 1:12:11joining. And yeah, we'll see.
- 1:12:14We'll see what happens. I'm sure we'll catch up again
- 1:12:17when the next catalyst drops. So thanks everyone for joining.
- 1:12:21And have a good night. Take care.
- 1:12:25Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 1:12:28If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 1:12:31podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
- 1:12:34media, or leave a rating and review.
- 1:12:37To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 1:12:40sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 1:12:43next time. We're doing something very, very
- 1:12:49big and I think with this technology we can really affect
- 1:12:52billion lives. FT Space globally is the only
- 1:12:55company that has good technology to deliver cellular broadband
- 1:12:59connectivity directly from space to the everyday smartphone.
- 1:13:04People will just basically turn their phone and be seamless.
- 1:13:07Regardless of where you. Are we don't want the user to
- 1:13:10know that it's connected by satellite.
- 1:13:13Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership
- 1:13:16with the MMO.