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158: Cattle Market Update What Producers Need to Know This Week with John Campbell · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 0:03
  Today we are welcoming back John Campbell onto the podcast.
• 0:06
  John is covering the markets what is going on in the world of
• 0:10
  the cattle industry this week. So John recaps all of that for
• 0:14
  us in this episode. So let's go ahead and hop into
• 0:16
  that with him. But before we do, if you guys
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  could take a second to like subscribe, rate and review, we
• 0:20
  would really appreciate it here at the team.
• 0:23
  Thank you so much for being a dedicated listener and hopping
• 0:27
  onto another episode with us. So let's go ahead and hear from
• 0:30
  John and what he has to say about the markets this week.
• 0:36
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 0:40
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 0:43
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 0:45
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 0:48
  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 0:51
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:00
  John, welcome back to the podcast.
• 1:03
  How is Life in Colorado? You know, it's all good thinking
• 1:10
  we'd get some rain today. And you know, our growing season
• 1:13
  really is about over. You, you get into September,
• 1:16
  especially West of here. And yeah, it'll soften the feet
• 1:19
  up a little bit. But you know, the truck farmers,
• 1:23
  they don't, they don't ever want it to rain.
• 1:25
  They just want to come down the ditch and put it where we can.
• 1:27
  But you know, it'll, it'll freshen the pasture up a little
• 1:30
  bit. And, and, but our growing season
• 1:33
  is, is pretty well over. But when you live in the desert,
• 1:36
  you'll take a rain anytime. Exactly.
• 1:38
  It is thunderstorm in here this morning in Kansas and if I could
• 1:42
  send some of it your way, I absolutely would.
• 1:45
  I will take all the rain we can, but I know you guys in the
• 1:47
  desert needed a little bit more than us right now as well,
• 1:50
  right. Well, good to hear.
• 1:52
  Good. Good to hear.
• 1:53
  Well, how did yesterday go? So it's Wednesday when we're
• 1:56
  talking. Yesterday was your guys's
• 1:58
  market. How did everything in Lahana go?
• 2:01
  Pretty good, you know, we we had a a pretty big downtrend last
• 2:06
  week just kind of a kick back from the future being down the
• 2:11
  limit on on Tuesday. But I thought everything really
• 2:15
  pretty steady in spots you could say a buck or two really want
• 2:20
  one way or the other. But you know, we're still
• 2:23
  selling some 3 weight cabs had some 375 LB stairs bring 530 a
• 2:30
  pound, which you know really wouldn't be any cheaper.
• 2:32
  Our best 4 weight cabs I think weighed 440 and and brought 465
• 2:38
  some 5 weight cattle still way north of four dollars 440 on
• 2:43
  some 5 weight stairs, little 470 weight heifers at $4.00 and five
• 2:50
  weights at at at 370. But, you know, I, I, I think
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  and, and this the market becomes truer the more volume that you
• 3:00
  get. Say, if you're sitting out there
• 3:01
  looking at market reports and shopping back and forth and
• 3:04
  comparing, you really have to take into consideration the
• 3:08
  volume and the more volume that an auction gots, the truer the
• 3:12
  report really can be. And but a quote, these markets
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  when you're just farting around with less than 1000 head total,
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  I mean, you're quoting a price, but you're, you're not doing
• 3:24
  anybody any justice. Yeah, that's what happened.
• 3:27
  But again, I would encourage people, regardless of the
• 3:32
  volume, boy, call that auction operator and, and, and, and
• 3:37
  discuss with him your scenario, what you got, how they're
• 3:41
  handled da da da da da, the numbers that you've got and
• 3:44
  you'll get a lot truer market report as to what they're worth.
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  You know, I, I can tell you the best 5 weight heifer brought,
• 3:55
  you know, 370. But man, oh man, you know you,
• 3:59
  you've got a, a, a set of all one color, a pot load of them.
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  They just weigh 5 and some change.
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  I'm $40 a hundred off and they would they would have brought
• 4:11
  that had we have had them. So don't go by the market report
• 4:16
  in the newspaper or the USDA government guy.
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  And that's not to discredit any of those, but every consignment
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  is unique. And you know, there's times,
• 4:28
  Lauren, where there's a big break between one way and five
• 4:31
  5/10/20 and one way and 570 just where they're going.
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  The condition, the kind the da da da da da.
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  So pays to kind of call your auction operator and say here's
• 4:45
  here's what I've got. What are they worth rather than,
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  you know, go through the USDA and they show 3 head that
• 4:53
  brought X amount or or you know, you're, you're, you're looking
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  at a market that had 45600 cattle.
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  They didn't have anything and we're there right now.
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  I I'm not, but you really need to establish what you got the
• 5:09
  Stocker heifers. I thought in the light yearlings
• 5:12
  here yesterday, really when you're talking about a Stocker
• 5:15
  heifer, she was, you know, that's just a big heifer calf
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  and and they're all calves, but they really don't become a
• 5:24
  stalker until after they're sold.
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  And and that sounds kind of corny, but we kind of draw the
• 5:30
  line at 5:50. If you got A54050 or A51020
• 5:35
  weight heifer that's weaned, then she's a true stalker
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  heifer. But 550 sixty weight is just a
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  big heifer calf. So kind of depends on where
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  they're going. If they're they're going to a
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  middle guy, why then they're a true stalker.
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  If they're going to a feed yard, regardless of the weight, what
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  then they become a a feeding effort.
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  So terminology gets a a little cluttered there, but I thought
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  pretty much steady. 560 weight heifer at 360 was the best we
• 6:07
  did yesterday. We had a nice string of some
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  thin weaned black steers and heifers. 585 LB heifer at 357
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  and there was a pot load of them weighed 7 at 3:53 that really
• 6:23
  wouldn't be any cheaper and some big 8 weight Red Angus heffers
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  that brought 337. So I kind of called the heffers
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  steady in spots, maybe a two or three lower, but the Stocker and
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  yearling steers really steady in spots.
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  You you would have to call the steers higher.
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  But again, you're kind of comparing apples this week with
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  prunes last week, you know, in terms of number and quality,
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  kind and condition. But we sold some 6 weight
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  steers. Again, they were little like
• 6:57
  your lungs. They were all black.
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  They were a long time weaned. They were off grass, they were
• 7:01
  thin and there were some numbers of them.
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  They bring 4/17 well you could have called that seven higher
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  but the same cattle probably would have bought brought the
• 7:13
  same last week if we'd have had them.
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  So just you know, re qualifying what what I said earlier depends
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  how many and what you got and what you're comparing them to.
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  But week to week had some 7 weight stairs bring 385 this
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  week and some big 860 LB stairs at 331 in spots of the steers
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  might have been a little higher. Cows really in short supply this
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  week, which kind of surprises me, but nobody's really done
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  their fall work yet. So the cows were were kind of in
• 7:47
  an in between stage. But the cow numbers will start
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  start picking up better cows that bring dollar 6065.
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  Surprisingly, a lot of those real high dollar cows are cows
• 7:59
  in pretty good shape, but they're going back on feed.
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  There's just so much feed around.
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  I mean, my opinion, not the right time to feed cows because
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  you're going into a time of plenty on cows versus going into
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  a time of shortage and numbers are demand, you know, probably
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  stay pretty good on what's available.
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  But seasonally we're going into a lower based off of demand.
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  The better bulls kind of 190 to 193 had some 5 year old spring
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  cabin cows all straight 5 bring 3400 solid mouse sisters still
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  around 3000 either side and and again still paying to preg your
• 8:41
  old cows 2475 on on some older cows this week.
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  Awesome, awesome. Well, that's a busy recap for
• 8:51
  you guys as well. What what stood out outside of
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  your guys's market this week, just kind of with the the cattle
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  market in general, the auction market in general, What are your
• 9:01
  thoughts on what we're seeing this week?
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  Well, I think you know, the end of last week and and it's a
• 9:07
  little early this week where there, you know, you're still
• 9:12
  kind of coming into a time where depends where you're at here we
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  don't have enough volume that our calf deal held together
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  pretty good. Now you start getting into some
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  farm and country and those guys are planting weed.
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  And again, good questions to ask your your market guy.
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  What's your cap demand like? Boy on a wean little light, thin
• 9:35
  yearling. It's pretty good South and and
• 9:39
  east of here. But boy, you start getting into
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  them fleshy ball and calves. Just looking around the horn
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  where they had some volume of them.
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  They were a ton lower. And just because the farmers,
• 9:50
  the guys buying them don't have don't have time for them.
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  They're they're farming. They they can't tend to the
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  health of those calves. So demand kind of goes go South
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  and I seen some new wing cabs that as much as 40 lower.
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  I think in the city they called them 40 lower in spots or
• 10:08
  Joplin, you know, where they're selling 789-1012 thousand.
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  I'm you get a pretty test of the deal, but they're being sold in,
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  I don't mean in the wrong area, but man, oh man, a phone call
• 10:20
  probably could have avoided that wreck.
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  But it's easy for me to say, you know, do this, do that.
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  Everybody's scenario is different and some people have
• 10:30
  to sell and that's just where they're at.
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  They're out of feed, out of time for the whatever the case may
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  be. But I, I, I thought Dodge City
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  still, you know, they're still selling some five way to heifer
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  cabs. They had some numbers of them up
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  north of $4.00 and they had some 560 weight efforts at 382 and 6
• 10:50
  weights at Ave. one. They will have a nice run of
• 10:54
  yearlings and stalkers and cabs this week.
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  Today as a matter of fact in Dodge still, you know, crowding
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  up against $4.00 on some big steers and Dodge City weigh in
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  390 and they had some 780 weight cattle bring 361 on the steer
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  side. Crap.
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  Last week I see some six way deppers at 381 or nothing really
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  cheaper about that. By Thursday, Friday all the
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  shock of the Tuesday deal was over.
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  But then I think Friday they hammered it again and we'll talk
• 11:26
  about that later, but then turned right around like they've
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  done the last 7-8 phases here and put it all or most of it
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  right, right back on Salina kind of similar.
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  I would, I would say to dodge some 580 weight cattle, 374
• 11:42
  seven weight stairs at 380-7860 at 355 S, both of those sales on
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  on Thursday and talking about some places later last week that
• 11:53
  kind of kind of had some volume. So.
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  Awesome. And then just markets in
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  general, was there anything that like was surprising this week,
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  anything that you were like, what in the hell was that or
• 12:08
  what in the world is going on? Yeah.
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  And, and, and we're going to, we're going to see some of that,
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  you know, especially, like I said, this time of year and more
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  case in point, boy, if you can let these farmers get caught up
• 12:23
  that they're, they're planting wheat, they're cutting corn,
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  they're this, they're that one good thing.
• 12:27
  If you don't have a lot of volume, you'll get along pretty
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  good at the auction. But you go to one of these
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  places, got a hell of a lot of cattle here the middle of
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  September And boy, your, your, your timings off.
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  So you need to kind of plan your program around that as as much
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  as you can. Again, last Tuesday, you know,
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  we dealt with a down the limit, you know, all the options of the
• 12:55
  feeder cattle down the limit and everybody sitting on pins and
• 12:59
  needles. They, they, oh, OK, here it is.
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  Here's the day we've been waiting for.
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  And then they reinforced that Friday had them down another 7.
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  And so you're thinking, Oh my gosh, this is it.
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  And do you know what the Hell's going to happen?
• 13:14
  And we're going to have a hell of a correction coming here.
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  And da, da, da, da, da. And then turn around.
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  I, I, I think it was either, I think it was Monday and put $8
• 13:24
  right back on it. And, and, and again, we're at
• 13:28
  the mercy of that. You know, the Cowboys are not
• 13:32
  the ones trading it and, and we talked about that last week.
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  So you're going to see some big moves in that because you've got
• 13:39
  all the commercial accounts, the commercial paper hell, they
• 13:43
  outnumber a pure hedger. I don't know what the number is,
• 13:46
  but I'll bet it's 1000 to 1, you know, and that's probably an
• 13:50
  exaggeration. When I was in college 100 years
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  ago, it was 200 to 1. There's 200 speculators to
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  everyone, guy that actually has the physical commodity to back
• 14:01
  up his position. There's 300 guys out here
• 14:04
  trading your one position back and forth, fed cattle down, down
• 14:08
  a couple bucks. That that doesn't surprise me
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  much. They'll slow the chains down and
• 14:15
  probably try to put a little pressure on trying to buy these
• 14:18
  fat cattle. But until we get the supply
• 14:22
  side, something changes with that, Lauren.
• 14:26
  I think the market state stayed pretty good meaning until the
• 14:30
  Brazilians cry uncle and say, OK, we we've had it, we'll come
• 14:34
  to the table on our tariff versus your tariff or the
• 14:38
  Mexicans or the Canadians. But until something like that
• 14:41
  happens, I think we're dealing in a tight enough supply that
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  deal going to stay. I'm still optimistic.
• 14:48
  I think the deal is still going to stay pretty good.
• 14:49
  I agree with that too. And just based off of what we've
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  been seeing over the last few weeks, we've kind of touched on
• 14:55
  it, but I feel like we're finally starting to kind of like
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  see the real numbers of like, OK, this is like this is it
• 15:02
  boys. We don't have anything coming in
• 15:04
  from the southern border. We don't have like this is This
• 15:06
  Is Us right now. We're starting to finally see
• 15:09
  truly those fold numbers as we go into this fall run.
• 15:14
  And I would agree with that sentiment that as long as our,
• 15:18
  it's this whole concept of supply and demand, right?
• 15:21
  Like as long as that pendulum stays balanced how we need it to
• 15:25
  on all fronts of the cattle industry.
• 15:28
  I'm not just talking like in the box, like in the store.
• 15:32
  I'm also talking like as long as our feed lot demand and our
• 15:36
  supply of calves and all of those things, that pendulum
• 15:38
  stays where we need it to. I agree with that sentiment that
• 15:42
  I think that we're going to be able to maintain these numbers
• 15:44
  for a while. Is the market still volatile?
• 15:46
  Absolutely. Are we still seeing some jump
• 15:48
  forwards and jump backs and all of the other things that bounce
• 15:51
  us around and take us for a whirlwind?
• 15:53
  Yeah, that's the cattle market. Welcome to it, Saddle.
• 15:57
  Hold on tight. Yeah, no fundamentals are are
• 16:00
  sound. You know, there's some things
• 16:01
  that you can't change you, you know what I mean?
• 16:03
  That, that, that, that are real wheats being planted.
• 16:06
  The farmers are busy right now. OK.
• 16:08
  So consequently, if you got a fat balling calf, why he's a
• 16:12
  little tougher to sell. You know, that has nothing to do
• 16:15
  with Mexico or Brazil. That's just a fact of life.
• 16:18
  That's what's going on out there.
• 16:20
  And our cattle numbers are down, down, down.
• 16:24
  I, I think everybody's auction receipts are down.
• 16:27
  You'll, you'll find areas and places where they're not, but
• 16:31
  across the board they're just less cattle to deal with and
• 16:34
  fundamentally that's, that's good news for the market.
• 16:38
  Yeah, definitely. As we round out the podcast, are
• 16:40
  there any other key takeaways, anything else that we need to
• 16:43
  hit on this week that we haven't touched on yet?
• 16:45
  John? Well, I think one thing I want
• 16:48
  to mention it is that here in Lahata, we start our special
• 16:51
  Monday calf sales October the 20th.
• 16:55
  And so we'll have 5 weeks here in La Hana that are dedicated
• 16:59
  exclusively to calves. That's all we sell on Monday is
• 17:02
  a calf. And then we also have a regular
• 17:06
  Tuesday sale. We'll sell some little odds and
• 17:08
  ends calves and the cows and the bulls and the yearling.
• 17:10
  But mark that down October the 20th and we'll go for five
• 17:14
  weeks, which would be the last two weeks in October and the
• 17:17
  first weeks of of November. We do have a a special stock cow
• 17:22
  sale on November the first. I've already got about 3
• 17:26
  surprisingly coward dispersals. You've got some guys that are
• 17:30
  just saying I'm going to keep my heifer calves, but this cow
• 17:33
  deals as good as it is and there's other factors go into
• 17:36
  it. One guys, I'm going to look at a
• 17:38
  big string of cows after we're done here.
• 17:40
  He just an older guy and they had just a normal course of what
• 17:43
  what goes on. He wants to sell cows.
• 17:45
  But I've been approached by some guys that say, you know, John, I
• 17:49
  think I'm going to get out and keep inventory my heifer calves
• 17:54
  at 25 and and sell my cow at 4000 and kind of regrouping
• 18:00
  through here. You know, there again, there's a
• 18:03
  lot of parts of that equation. But they're financially stable
• 18:06
  enough. Grass is paid for.
• 18:08
  They can do some things. Somebody's leasing grass are
• 18:11
  making a big payment can't do. And I and I'm by no means an
• 18:14
  advocate of selling your cows. I think you'll like it next year
• 18:17
  too. But I understand their their
• 18:20
  reason for doing it. One thing kind of a unique
• 18:23
  situation. It's not unique.
• 18:25
  It happens all the time, but it needs some explanation.
• 18:28
  I had a producer this week that and you don't see it in the true
• 18:33
  yearling guys of the Stocker guys cuz they deal with it all
• 18:35
  the time. But boy, if you've got heffers,
• 18:39
  yearling heffers guys, talk to your auction guy about
• 18:42
  guaranteeing those heffers open. We have got buyers now.
• 18:47
  I mean they just won't touch him unless you'll guarantee him
• 18:50
  open. And the first thing that a
• 18:52
  rancher says, boy, John that get word guarantee it means
• 18:57
  something to him. And he said, man, they could
• 19:00
  have bred on the cow. I pulled a bull.
• 19:02
  I know I pulled a bull out there two weeks ago, John.
• 19:05
  For me, my credibility to say that these efforts are open, I
• 19:09
  can't say that. Well, you're not really saying
• 19:13
  that they're all open. What you're saying is that, you
• 19:17
  know, I think they're I think they're open, but I'll give you
• 19:21
  the opportunity to check those heifers at your expense and I'll
• 19:25
  stand behind them. And that's all the buyer is
• 19:27
  asking for. He he's not looking at that
• 19:30
  producer and say there was one bread heifer on there.
• 19:32
  That guy lied to me when he guaranteed him open that that is
• 19:36
  not at all how it happens. But I can see, and I've had guys
• 19:40
  say that John, if there'd happen to be two or three of those
• 19:43
  bread, all my credibility just go down the tube.
• 19:48
  Well, that's not it. All the buyer is asking would
• 19:51
  you give me the opportunity to preg your heifers because I've
• 19:56
  got to have them open to go to my people.
• 19:58
  These feedlots do not, do not want a bread heifer any way,
• 20:04
  shape, form, whatever. By guaranteeing them open, all
• 20:07
  you're doing is giving the buyer the privilege to preg check
• 20:11
  those heifers and you'll stand. Behind them.
• 20:13
  So yes, you are guaranteeing them to the extent that if
• 20:17
  anything's bread, I'm more than happy to take her back.
• 20:20
  There's very few people that can say absolutely there's no way if
• 20:25
  they bought them, if they bread on the cow, there's no way we
• 20:28
  know if they're all open or not. Hell, it's damn near to an
• 20:31
  impossibility. But the buyer is just asking for
• 20:35
  the opportunity to check them and you know, so he can be
• 20:40
  assured to his people that the heifers are all open.
• 20:43
  And in some cases it if they're bread, they're worth more for
• 20:48
  you to take back than an open ones worth anyway.
• 20:51
  And that that doesn't always happen.
• 20:53
  But you deal with that after the fact.
• 20:56
  But it takes some talk and we we need to re qualify how we say
• 21:03
  that guaranteed open. You know, it's not a shot to
• 21:07
  your integrity and I'm repeating myself, but it it it's just
• 21:10
  giving the buyer the opportunity to deal only only at open
• 21:14
  heifers. And if you've got some real,
• 21:16
  real short bread ones, the buyer I don't think will care And and
• 21:20
  the that sure doesn't mind. He he can abort those little,
• 21:23
  you know, peanuts and nobody ever knows the difference, you
• 21:27
  know. So anyway, if you think you've
• 21:29
  got a bunch of pregnant heifers, then that changes a little bit.
• 21:33
  You need to preg those ahead of time and do not do it the day
• 21:36
  before you sell them. Now, granted, I, I mean, you're
• 21:40
  better off what I'm saying, Lauren, is bring him in three
• 21:42
  days ahead of time because you need to recoup that 456 percent
• 21:47
  that you're going to lose in weight running them through the
• 21:50
  chute and preg test in those heifers.
• 21:53
  So get them there in time that you can get that accomplished or
• 21:56
  do it at home just for a way up sense.
• 21:59
  Don't do it the day before. Yeah, 100 percent, 100%.
• 22:03
  Well, John, I think that rounds out our podcast and everything
• 22:08
  that we need to head on for today.
• 22:09
  So thank you as always for your time, for hopping on with us.
• 22:13
  To all of our listeners out there, we hope you have a great
• 22:17
  rest of your day and we will see you all tomorrow on another
• 22:20
  episode. John, thank you for your time.
• 22:22
  We'll see y'all later.