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SpaceX has fierce unlikely competiton · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that
• 0:08
  shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
• 0:13
  And I'm your host, Will Walden. So right now, the space industry
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  is witnessing pretty big shift in the cost dynamics of
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  launching rockets into space. And SpaceX in a Falcon 9 rocket
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  which offering launches for as low as $67 million, has been a
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  disruptive force in reducing space travel cost for about a
• 0:36
  decade now. Now, in a remarkable crazy turn
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  of events, ULA the United Launch Alliance with it's at a joint
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  venture between aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
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  They're showing a formidable challenge to SpaceX with the
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  Vulcan Centaur rocket, brand new rocket that's potential
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  levelling of the playing field with this competitive space
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  market. Between SpaceX and every other
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  competitor you know, Spacex's journey in lowering space travel
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  costs has been pretty well documented, slashing prices from
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  1 standard $400 million per launch to about $70 million.
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  And the development of their Starship vehicle, aiming to
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  launch more cargo for a significantly less, shows that
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  they're going to get even better at what they do.
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  However, despite the progress, the Starship is yet to complete
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  a successful test flight to orbit, leaving room for
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  competitors to play a little bit of catch up here.
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  Now ULA, which is long perceived as an old space program and
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  they're trailing behind SpaceX in cost effectiveness, appears
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  to have made it a leap forward with the Vulcan Centaur rocket.
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  Originally replacing the costly D4 Heavy.
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  The Centaur rocket is being positioned by ULA is a cost
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  competitive alternative to Spacex's Falcon 9 and other
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  offerings, with an aim to launch for under $100 million.
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  Now, the allocation of 21 launch contracts by the US Space Force,
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  split almost evenly between SpaceX and ULA, has been a
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  spotlight on the pricing strategies of both companies.
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  ULA secured 11 launches at an average cost of about $118
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  million per launch. Marginally undercutting SpaceX
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  is $120 million per launch now. This suggests a very narrow gap
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  now between the two rivals, and despite the apparent parody and
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  launch costs, a deeper analysis reveals nuances though.
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  Ula's launches are all slated for the Vulcan Centaur, whereas
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  Spacex's contracts include both Falcon 9 and the more expensive
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  Falcon Heavy launches. Adjusting for this mix, Big
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  Six's Falcon 9 launches would still be slightly more expensive
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  on average, but the difference is increasingly marginal now.
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  The pricing parity between SpaceX and ULA raises questions
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  about the future financial performance of Boeing and
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  Lockheed Martin, though, which is the parent companies, the
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  ULA. And there's speculation that
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  they might sell ULA. But even if they retain
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  ownership, the impact on revenue and profit margins remains
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  uncertain. Lockheed has already seen a
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  decline in space revenue and profit margins due to
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  competition from SpaceX. And if the Vulcan Centaur proves
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  cheaper to build and operate than UL as previous outlets and
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  Delta rockets, it could stabilize or even improve the
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  company's financials. This will be a welcome
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  development for investors in Bowie and Lockheed, aligning
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  with ULACEO Tory Bruno, friend of the show commitment to
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  reducing launch costs. Now SpaceX continues to
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  demonstrate its capabilities with recent successful launches.
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  The USSF 52 mission for the US Space Force using the Falcon
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  Heavy was launched from Kennedy Space Center carrying the Boeing
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  built X37B. They work together here, and
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  this mission highlights that SpaceX will of course work with
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  anybody, as long as they're giving the money to launch
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  whatever they want to launch. Now, the X37B, which is a
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  reusable spacecraft, it's a space plane similar to the old
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  space shuttle, is set to test new space domain awareness
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  technologies and other experiments.
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  Now this mission, according to Boeing's top secret, will push
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  the boundaries of space exploration and offer benefits
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  to the wider space faring community.
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  And this is an innovative program by Boeing and the Space
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  Force launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket.
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  Now, the successful launch of the USSF 52 mission shows that
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  the US Space Force's dedication of national security and
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  technological advancement, and they will use any vendor that
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  will give them a good price. So could it be ULA?
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  Could it be SpaceX in the future?
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  We're not 100% sure, but probably both in the coming
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  years. Now, the recent developments in
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  the space launch market reflect a kind of evolving landscape
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  here, where price competitiveness is finally
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  becoming increasingly crucial. Companies like ULA have had high
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  prices 4 decades, and now ULAS, Vulcan, Centaur, and Spacex's
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  Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets are at the forefront of
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  these shifts, offering more cost effective solutions for both
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  commercial and government space missions.
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  And as ULA and SpaceX continue to vie for dominance in the
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  space launch market, the industry is likely to witness
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  further innovations and cost reductions.
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  The competition between these two mega giants not only
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  influences the respective financial performances, but also
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  shapes the future trajectory of space exploration and tech.
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  Now, investors in Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and other
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  companies involved in the space industry will closely monitor
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  this. The balance between maintaining
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  profitability and staying competitive in pricing will be
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  crucial for these companies to continue offering services to
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  the government Now. This reduction in launch cost
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  has broader implications for the overall space exploration field.
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  Lower costs open up new possibilities for scientific
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  research, satellite deployment and even human rated crude
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  missions to space. Now this could potentially
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  accelerate the pace of discovery and innovation in outer space.
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  Government entities like the US Space Force also play a role in
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  this, not only as customers, but also as partners in advancing
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  technological capabilities. Their contracts and missions are
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  vital for the sustained growth and development of space
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  capabilities. Most of our technology now was
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  built in the space age when government contracts were huge
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  with companies like this and they innovative so many
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  technological leaps due to this competition.
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  So SpaceX, ULA, this competition is great, not just for them, but
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  for all of us involved. Now, this is an important
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  juncture right now between ULA, Vulcan Centaur, and Spacex's
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  Falcon 9 Falcon Heavy rockets. This competition is not just
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  about market share though, and not just about money, but also
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  about our own futures. And these companies will
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  continue to innovate and will continue to drive down costs.
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  Because if they can drive down costs, they'll get more money
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  from the government and more money from the Department of
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  Defense. And they'll innovate for all of
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  us. Hey, thank you so much for
• 7:18
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
• 7:20
  support. If you could take a second and
• 7:21
  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
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  platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
• 7:27
  appreciate it. It helps out the show
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  tremendously. And you'll never miss an
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  episode. And each episode is about 10
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  minutes or less to get you caught up quickly.
• 7:36
  And please, if you want to support the show even more, go
• 7:39
  to Atreoncom, Stage Zero, and please take care of yourselves
• 7:45
  and each other and I'll see you tomorrow.