Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why the Stock Market is Not Crashing (yet…) + Stock Market News 23 June 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why the Stock Market is Not Crashing (yet…) + Stock Market News 23 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this Monday morning pre-market live stream.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: And if you're wondering why Winston just got up and why the market hasn't crashed yet, I'll tell you why and I'll explain to you why and explain to you what the risks still are, because it isn't over until the fat lady sings.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: But there is a lot of positive stuff out there that means markets are very likely to going to shrug this off Now.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I should have held that back for another 15 minutes to make you watch later longer, but this isn't really what this is about.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to share my screen with you and I'm going to run you straight through everything that you need to know to become a better investor, make smarter decisions today.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Once I've done that, I'll also walk you through why HIMSS is crashing and I'll also walk you through all your questions and we'll look at what we might want to be buying this week and for my mentees, you already got our list this morning, right?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Or actually your evening if you were in the US, so you see what we're bullish on.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through a little bit of what's going on out there.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, right.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you and we'll get cracking, shall we If that might be some use to you, by the way, put a one in the chat or some of this might be some use to you.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, so first of all, let me give you a bit of bad news, and then we roll into the good news, and then the resilience, and then what we might want to be buying and what we definitely don't want to be buying.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And the first thing is there are lots of reports out of the Middle East that there is plenty of stuff going on there.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I would actually.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I have my, my my personal trainer is in Tel Aviv, so we did a workout today and he was getting the updates of all the all the missile sort of warnings alerts.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: They have this app in Israel.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Tells them where it's going to come, and then they give you 10 minutes and then they give you a 90 seconds to run into the bunker, which he, thankfully, didn't Actually did he have to do that?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: No, he didn't, actually, thankfully, he thought he did, and then it got cancelled.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So Iran is still firing some things in the direction of Israel.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Israel's apparently struck somewhere between 100 to 200 targets in Iran today, so this war is not over and it seems they're striking more and more kind of government targets, sort of regime targets, and we'll get onto that in a second.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: But there is also this report out unconfirmed, that an American military base in Syria was attacked.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Now I don't know whether it's official that there is an American military base in Syria, but there is an American military base in most places, so it's pretty likely.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: The US has apparently also ordered its family and non-emergency governed personnel to leave Lebanon.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: They're probably worried about terror attacks, bombings, that sort of thing.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Ah, a bit of cactus in the morning, and the president of peace is now talking about regime change, which is sort of, I think, what happens to everybody who meets the Pentagon.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So it could be that the US will, directly or indirectly, israel push for regime change, which, well, that is what it is.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: In a sense it sort of makes sense.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: You can't really negotiate with people who call themselves supreme leader.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't really work, does it?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: So in a sense there's some logic to that.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Hopefully this isn't going to turn into a much bigger war, but there is still that the market at the moment is shrugging it off, and I showed you this map yesterday here, just so you get a little bit of a feel of the geography.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: If you didn't tune in yesterday, I'll show it to you very briefly.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: This is the Middle East.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: We're caring here about the blue bit, the Persian Gulf, and then you've got in these sort of brownish stains.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: They're your oil and gas fields, in red these are, they're refineries, right.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty nice and clear.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And then there is this straight off Hormuz, which is this little bit there which is very, very, very narrow, and you can also see that.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Well, the Iranians are everywhere, because Iran is a very, very, very, very large country, right.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So they basically control the entire Persian Gulf, one side of it.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: On the other side you have countries that we might be more familiar with.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So that's a thing.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So why isn't oil prices at $100?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Why hasn't the market collapsed this morning?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Very simple, well, first of all, we've had a lot of conflicts in the Middle East.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are mostly Middle East ones, you know Iran, iraq, one, two, three and so on, and then the impact on actual oil exports, and they've just declined.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: They've been pretty minor, mostly since the 1990s.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: The last big one was really the sort of Bush the senior invading Iraq.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: That was a fairly big deal because we lost all Iraqi and Kuwaiti floats, but then the Saudis kicked in and pumped it and then it was all okay again.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So the impact actually hasn't been that great.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: And then the second thing, and this is what almost nobody understands, and I want you to understand that oil from Iraq, the Gulf I'm talking about the Gulf and the Middle East, not the Gulf of America, any Mexicans on the channel here that we just wound up when does it go?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: It goes almost entirely to Asia.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Obviously, china is a big part of that, but also other Asian countries, and it's like a tiny percentage 5% or something like that.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That actually goes to Europe or the US.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: You might be wondering.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Well, hang on, that's not what I was told.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I thought this was all about oil.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I thought we needed the oil, right?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Well, we'll talk about hymns in a second.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Actually, I wanted to see if that's in the wrong place, but that is important.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that in just a moment.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: First of all, you need to understand this the United States of America is the largest oil producer in the world.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: It's not the Saudis, it's not the UAE or Kuwait or Qatar or Iran or any of those.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: No, it's the United States.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: It's by far the largest oil producer in the world.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: And it isn't just the largest oil producer in the world, bigger than Saudi Arabia, it is also no longer an oil importer.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: So when we go back in time 1977, you know sort of when Iran mattered, the Gulf War and the Iraq War, two, what was it?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Three, depending on which one you start counting the US was importing sort of massive amounts of petroleum-based products.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Right now, the US is an exporter, and that is one of the main reasons.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: No matter what happens in the Gulf, even if the oil stops flowing out of the Gulf for a while, it doesn't really matter that much, because very little of it goes to Europe and none of it goes to the US.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So who's going to suffer from this?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'm not saying it doesn't matter, but Asian economies and that sort of thing.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So it isn't that important for the stock market, because the stock market is mostly US-based, right?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Most of the things listed in the US are US companies doing business in the US and therefore this doesn't really matter, right?
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Does that give you some clarity?
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: If that gives you some clarity, put a C in the chat down below.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Take a screenshot if you wish, because some people are not going to believe that that the US is actually an exporter of oil nowadays.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Now, moving on to something a bit more uh, well, one stock sort of thing, and then we look a little bit at a trend story there.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: And then we look at the market and the live pre market as well.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Uh, and let me just see how many, how many people have we got live here today?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: We've got 2,800 people like, of which live live, of which about 8% have hit the like button.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I'm about as popular as the Supreme Leader, it seems.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So, novo Nordisk, the Danes, with the little peach thing on top I'm sure the Danes have never heard that joke before They've terminated their hySS and HERS collaboration, citing HIMSS, illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, the word illegal is pretty strong and, yeah, not brilliant for HIMSS, probably not brilliant for them either, but no seriousness, let me show you where HIMS is trading right now pre-market.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: It is trading down here.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: It is pre-market down.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Do we show the percentage point?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, so do I have to do that?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: We're down 24% or so on that.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Pretty extraordinary stuff, right, 24% down.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Definitely checking out all of that recovery rally there.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So this continues to be a very, very volatile stock.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Now my little box up there says I told you so, I didn't know this was going to happen, but yeah, this was the beginning of the resistance zone and boom, textbook-like, it just decides to fault, falter, so bigly.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Deal for hymns there.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Um, if you want hymns, I'm sorry, um, I don't know if it's overdone and overreaction.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Um, it's definitely not brilliant for them to use that supply, uh, but obviously we don't know the details of that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Um, it's illegal because they continued compounding when they weren't supposed to.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Um, possible, I don't know, I I I really don't know the answer to that one.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: But to leave you on a slightly happier note, this is where we are.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: This is the nasdaq and it's uh momentum during the and we are right bang in the middle of tail end of June.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: We're somewhere here, somewhere there, and, typically speaking, life gets better thereafter.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So I have a smile on my face.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: We're making lots of money Over the weekend, I think.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Well, all our oil and gold and sort of war stocks seemed to have worked out rather well, which is good, and we didn't buy those because I thought there was going to be war.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I just bought those because the chart told me to, and that's ultimately, I think the lesson I'd like you guys to take away from every single video I put out is that there is a rule book.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: There are three simple steps we follow.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: We follow them every single week.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Book.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: There are three simple steps we follow.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: We follow them every single week and, in my humble opinion, if you follow them every single week, you are likely to do much, much, much, much better than you're doing right now, even if you're doing well now.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I thought this was a lovely quote.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I just happened to see that today.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I thought I'd share with you.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Marcus aurelius you know they are good old roman chap, lots of good thoughts and he said remember that you are, remember that you are more free if you change your opinion and follow those who have corrected your mistakes and if you're stubborn about your mistakes.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: And I think he was probably thinking about stock market traders.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Because what most people do um, who knows?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Uh, the romans were very advanced, advanced and what most people do is that they make a mistake, and by mistake I mean they're in a stock, they buy a stock, stock drops, you know, 30%, and now they stubbornly hold on to it.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Hold on to it.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I used to be that person.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I was very lucky.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I had a lot of very smart mentors and they told me that that was a mistake and that I should do something different and that I should use simply what successful people do, and it kind of made sense to me.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: So I changed my tune and started following those people and that's all I do and that's what I continue to do, and I still follow pretty much exactly the same rule book that I was taught and that's what got me free and that's why I spent today working out with my coach.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I can now do a five second handstand without a wall, which I'm very excited about.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I couldn't not do a handstand for the life of me until about six months ago, or maybe a little bit less than that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Never had done one in my life.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Just an achievement, of sorts.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I enjoyed sitting by the pool this evening, had dinner out there and just had a lovely day, and it's only because my money works for me and I'm so, so, so, so very happy that that's the case.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: So I'd encourage you to come and learn with us.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn with us um, it's completely free, phoenix, friends at all.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Slash, get free.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Just click on that.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: It'll give you access to our master class.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: And if you're going to do that, anyone going to do that, anyone going to get free?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Uh, put a, put a g in the chat for get free, or gf in the chat.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: This here is albert, by the way, who is our um boy, who is single-handedly, single-poredly responsible for creating five kittens.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, good swimmers, he says.