Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | This Did Not Continue | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/15/26

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Friday BEST BETS | This Did Not Continue | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
0:19
Speaker 1: your chicks. Black coffee on the felt man, you look
0:23
Speaker 1: like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust in
0:28
Speaker 1: your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
0:30
Speaker 1: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet.
0:35
Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name, steal me
0:38
Speaker 1: something new, somebody for show.
0:41
Speaker 2: Put the glass.
0:42
Speaker 3: Down, baby, look at me.
0:46
Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on nothing.
0:54
Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on, hold on me.
1:05
Speaker 1: That but it don't get the crown.
1:14
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and.
1:17
Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back
1:29
Speaker 2: with you with Toadstool Sports, Friday, May fifteenth, two and
1:34
Speaker 2: two day on the show yesterday. I shouldn't have added
1:37
Speaker 2: that late addition to it. It would have been two and one. Instead,
1:41
Speaker 2: we started out zero to two. Both first five inning
1:44
Speaker 2: unders lost.
1:46
Speaker 3: Uh.
1:46
Speaker 2: Foster Griffin was not good and that just completely threw
1:51
Speaker 2: that game to the wind. Chase Burns definitely did his
1:56
Speaker 2: part of things in that game. But yeah, Cincinnati, some
2:00
Speaker 2: I'll put up a ton of runs in that game.
2:03
Speaker 2: It was dead and then the other game was dead
2:05
Speaker 2: right away too. Nolan McClain gives up three runs in
2:09
Speaker 2: the first inning to Detroit and that it's just over
2:13
Speaker 2: at that point, it's already done. I don't know what
2:15
Speaker 2: to tell you about that. Definitely surprising. McLain was like
2:19
Speaker 2: the better part of that under there, he's the better
2:22
Speaker 2: of those two pitchers. We did get the night games
2:25
Speaker 2: correct San Francisco, and the Dodgers looked like that was
2:28
Speaker 2: gonna be a loser as well with the under. I mean,
2:31
Speaker 2: it looked good because it was two to two into
2:33
Speaker 2: the sixth innings, so that looked good. It's just like,
2:35
Speaker 2: let's just make sure this doesn't go into extra innings here.
2:38
Speaker 2: Somebody just score a run. Oh no, But the Dodgers
2:41
Speaker 2: score three in the bottom of the six so then
2:45
Speaker 2: you're sitting at seven now all of a sudden and
2:48
Speaker 2: one more run scores are gonna push two more, You're
2:51
Speaker 2: gonna lose the beat no more runs score. Though, the
2:54
Speaker 2: bullpens rescued it and it saved it, literally, so we
2:58
Speaker 2: got the under on that. Dodgers won the game five
3:01
Speaker 2: to two. Then we did win the WNBA game, as
3:05
Speaker 2: WNBA is now three to zero here on the show,
3:09
Speaker 2: so probably not a bad idea. You know that. I
3:12
Speaker 2: started doing WNBA last year New York Liberty get the
3:16
Speaker 2: cover there. You know, they were barely winning at halftime,
3:20
Speaker 2: but I wasn't even that concerned about it. And then yeah,
3:23
Speaker 2: they just had an insane third quarter. And then at
3:26
Speaker 2: that point you're like, all right, yeah, they're up like
3:27
Speaker 2: almost twenty points. Now this thing is yeah, like they're
3:31
Speaker 2: gonna definitely cover this. I believe they won by eighteen
3:34
Speaker 2: something like that. The game didn't go under, though, which
3:39
Speaker 2: kind of surprised me. It looked like it was trending
3:41
Speaker 2: towards the under. So luckily that was not the play
3:44
Speaker 2: that I gave out. I will have two Major League
3:47
Speaker 2: Baseball totals today, and I'm gonna have an NBA play.
3:50
Speaker 2: There is no NHL tonight, and I'm skipping the WNBA
3:55
Speaker 2: even though there are four WNBA games. I will tell
3:59
Speaker 2: you what my strong his opinion is. I don't like
4:01
Speaker 2: it enough, but I mean something in my head is like,
4:05
Speaker 2: this is better than these stupid MLB totals right now, Dude,
4:08
Speaker 2: I don't know. Baseball like just messes with your head
4:12
Speaker 2: so badly, even though usually I'm pretty good at it.
4:15
Speaker 2: We've had a good season with baseball, but it almost
4:17
Speaker 2: feels like I do like I have all these baseball
4:21
Speaker 2: plays and like I feel like I'm gonna lose every
4:23
Speaker 2: single one of them. Like in my mind, I'm like,
4:25
Speaker 2: I don't even know what I'm doing here. It's just
4:27
Speaker 2: a completely different way of handicapping. Tyson, what's up? Thanks
4:31
Speaker 2: for hanging out. All right, let's do this. I don't
4:34
Speaker 2: know how I could speed things up with this man.
4:37
Speaker 2: Baseball takes way too long. Every team is in action
4:41
Speaker 2: here in baseball today. We have all evening baseball. It
4:45
Speaker 2: is Friday. New series are beginning. It is the beginning
4:48
Speaker 2: of rivalry week and starting with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. A
4:53
Speaker 2: lot of interleague rivalry series going on here Pittsburgh. Both
4:57
Speaker 2: these teams played yesterday. Pittsburgh is staying at home. They
5:00
Speaker 2: just beat Colorado yesterday to finish that series by winning it.
5:05
Speaker 2: Philadelphia is traveling in from Boston, which is not too bad.
5:09
Speaker 2: They did beat the Red Sox yesterday, which I'm not
5:12
Speaker 2: happy about. Obviously, Red Sox just cannot score at all.
5:17
Speaker 2: Philly used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh
5:22
Speaker 2: used four. Sometimes this isn't accurate because this site is
5:26
Speaker 2: just tracking like who currently is listed as a relief
5:29
Speaker 2: pitcher on this roster. So there are like some teams
5:32
Speaker 2: today that looked like they didn't use any relief pitchers,
5:34
Speaker 2: which isn't true. But it's just a way to gauge,
5:36
Speaker 2: like generally, what the bullpen rest scenario is and see
5:41
Speaker 2: like did the best bullpen arms pitch yesterday or not.
5:44
Speaker 2: As far as bullpen arranged by Whip as I always do,
5:49
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is actually below Philadelphia now, Philadelphia eighteenth, Pittsburgh nineteenth.
5:55
Speaker 2: They're both pretty close though they're both mediocre bullpens. I
5:58
Speaker 2: would say, don't necessarily want to fade them, don't necessarily
6:03
Speaker 2: want to rely on them either. Pittsburgh has hit pretty
6:06
Speaker 2: well this year. They're eighth arranged by OPS. Philly has
6:10
Speaker 2: moved up a little bit there twenty seconds, so Pittsburgh
6:14
Speaker 2: actually has the better offense and they're one of the
6:16
Speaker 2: highest scoring teams at home. They're going up against Aaron
6:19
Speaker 2: Nola for the Phillies here. It's still pretty difficult to
6:24
Speaker 2: gauge what we're gonna get out of him. He's not
6:26
Speaker 2: had a good season five point one four ERA one
6:29
Speaker 2: point four to eight. Whip. Nola tried to come back
6:32
Speaker 2: from injury last year did not go particularly well. He's
6:35
Speaker 2: been a little bit better on the road so far
6:37
Speaker 2: this year four point nine to four ERA this month.
6:41
Speaker 2: He has a nine to two strikeout walk ratio in
6:44
Speaker 2: two starts, which is not bad. He had a shutout
6:47
Speaker 2: at Miami, but then he wasn't that good at home
6:49
Speaker 2: against Colorado, so I to me, it doesn't look like
6:53
Speaker 2: he's really completely back in form. Like it's almost like
6:55
Speaker 2: that Miami start was a little bit more of an outlier.
6:58
Speaker 2: So I worry a little bit. But if you look
7:00
Speaker 2: his overall numbers, strikeout rate is good, more than one
7:03
Speaker 2: per inning, has a lot a lot of walks. Really,
7:08
Speaker 2: the hit rate is way too high though, so I
7:11
Speaker 2: mean the walk numbers a little bit too high as well. Actually,
7:13
Speaker 2: he's got a forty four to fifteen strikeout walk ratio,
7:16
Speaker 2: forty seven hits, a lot of forty two innings. NOLA
7:19
Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, though, does have good numbers, I believe. Yeah.
7:23
Speaker 2: He saw them to a two twenty eight average, six
7:25
Speaker 2: to seventy three ohps, one hundred and fourteen at bats.
7:28
Speaker 2: Ozoon has seen a ton of them and has struck
7:32
Speaker 2: out a lot against him. He's got forty one strikeouts
7:35
Speaker 2: against the Pirates as a whole five walks, So his
7:39
Speaker 2: numbers are all really good here. But remember all these
7:42
Speaker 2: like almost all these numbers are the past version of
7:45
Speaker 2: Nola before his injury, so I still have a lot
7:48
Speaker 2: of concerns about him. I don't necessarily love Nola here,
7:52
Speaker 2: even though his matchup numbers look pretty good. Braxton Ashcraft
7:55
Speaker 2: is pitching for the Pirates. He's been the better pitcher
7:58
Speaker 2: this year two point seven to seventy years, one point
8:01
Speaker 2: zero five whip. He's not as good at home three
8:03
Speaker 2: point four to two era at home, but he is
8:06
Speaker 2: in really good form over his last two starts. He's
8:10
Speaker 2: only allowed one run in fourteen to two thirds innings
8:12
Speaker 2: with twelve strikeouts two walks this month, but it was
8:15
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati and San Francisco. Not really great offenses here.
8:21
Speaker 2: Not that Philly's has been that good either. He's got
8:24
Speaker 2: a really like his ratio looks better here, fifty one
8:27
Speaker 2: to fourteen strikeout walk ratio, only thirty seven hits a
8:30
Speaker 2: lot of forty eight to two thirds innings. He's been
8:33
Speaker 2: the better of the two pitchers, and he does have
8:35
Speaker 2: good matchup numbers. I believe against Philly or no, he
8:38
Speaker 2: does not, my mistake. It's a very small sample. I'm
8:42
Speaker 2: trying to remember everything I just went through earlier. Philly
8:46
Speaker 2: is only two for five off him, with two walks,
8:49
Speaker 2: no strikeouts. Garcia and Turnable that have doubles off him.
8:53
Speaker 2: But it's such a small sample size, there's not a
8:56
Speaker 2: whole lot to really draw from that. So, I mean,
9:00
Speaker 2: matchup numbers seem to support Nola here. Current form and
9:06
Speaker 2: what these pictures have done this year would definitely favor
9:09
Speaker 2: Ashcraft here. I don't think there's a huge edge in
9:11
Speaker 2: the bullpens or anything like that. The money seems to
9:14
Speaker 2: be indicating on Philadelphia though you have seventy percent of
9:17
Speaker 2: the tickets on Pittsburgh, seventy one percent of the cash
9:20
Speaker 2: on Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is around minus one thirty or so here.
9:26
Speaker 2: I think I lean Pittsburgh, though, I mean, I know
9:28
Speaker 2: I I like matchup numbers. Sometimes I think I weigh
9:32
Speaker 2: them too heavily, though, But again, Nola, like a lot
9:35
Speaker 2: of those numbers were in the past, He's not as
9:38
Speaker 2: good right now Ashcraft. Such a small sample size, I
9:41
Speaker 2: think you can kind of just throw it out. So
9:43
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm gonna lean to Pittsburgh slightly there,
9:46
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh with a travel advantage because they don't have
9:49
Speaker 2: to travel dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out
9:53
Speaker 2: Toronto at Detroit on Apple TV? This is a rivalry series? No,
9:59
Speaker 2: I mean, it's probably just because these two teams, like,
10:01
Speaker 2: I don't know, they just don't have rivals anymore. There
10:06
Speaker 2: are no Montreal expos anymore for Toronto to have to face,
10:10
Speaker 2: So Washington is playing against Baltimore. Sorry Toronto. Detroit, I
10:15
Speaker 2: guess doesn't have any equivalent National League arrival either there.
10:20
Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Whatever. Detroit is returning on from
10:23
Speaker 2: a road trip, and you know, I don't like that.
10:25
Speaker 2: They went to Kansas City, which isn't that bad and
10:28
Speaker 2: then the Mets. And I usually like to fade teams
10:31
Speaker 2: returning on from road trips. They've been away for a week,
10:34
Speaker 2: got to get back to home life. You know, you
10:36
Speaker 2: might get a little bit distracted. But Detroit, I don't know, man,
10:40
Speaker 2: because they did just get swept in really ugly fashion
10:43
Speaker 2: against the Mets. That's pretty bad. So maybe Detroit does
10:48
Speaker 2: not totally get distracted here. Still, I consider it to
10:52
Speaker 2: be a negative spot for Detroit, though, Toronto is coming
10:56
Speaker 2: in from Tampa Bay, and I believe Toronto didn't play yesterday,
11:00
Speaker 2: so Detroit played yesterday and the returning home from a
11:03
Speaker 2: road trip, Toronto didn't play, and they're starting a road trip,
11:06
Speaker 2: and usually starting a road trip is a focus spot.
11:09
Speaker 2: Toronto just ended a three game losing streak, so the
11:12
Speaker 2: situation definitely does favorite Toronto here. They're the rested team
11:17
Speaker 2: as well. Detroit used a lot of relief pitchers as well,
11:21
Speaker 2: where they used four guys out of the bullpen. It
11:24
Speaker 2: looks like according to that Toronto has arrested bullpen. Toronto
11:28
Speaker 2: actually is the better of the two bullpens, not that
11:31
Speaker 2: either of that good. Toronto fifteenth, Detroit twenty first. Detroit
11:36
Speaker 2: is the better offense, they're eleventh, Toronto is twenty fourth.
11:40
Speaker 2: But you know, I have way pitching ahead of offense,
11:43
Speaker 2: and Toronto's got a lot of advantages. It looks like
11:46
Speaker 2: to me here Trey is savage. It's pitching for Toronto.
11:49
Speaker 2: He's become pretty decently established. He's got a point six
11:53
Speaker 2: to eighty RA this year, but a one point three
11:55
Speaker 2: to five whip. It's a really small sample size though,
11:59
Speaker 2: and his R is worse on the road two point
12:01
Speaker 2: two five. Oh no, he's only made three starts so far,
12:05
Speaker 2: but he hasn't really gone deep into any of them,
12:07
Speaker 2: so it does look like they're kind of limiting his
12:09
Speaker 2: pitch count a little bit, which makes sense. You don't
12:11
Speaker 2: want to overwork these young guys, you know. But he's
12:14
Speaker 2: only allowed one run this season. His overall numbers look
12:18
Speaker 2: fine to me. Fifteen to five strike out walk ratio,
12:20
Speaker 2: thirteen hits in thirteen a third innings. Yet none of
12:24
Speaker 2: this is that bad. He hasn't really faced any terrific
12:26
Speaker 2: offenses though. In fact, I think Detroit is actually going
12:29
Speaker 2: to be the best offense he's faced so far, and
12:32
Speaker 2: I believe Detroit has never faced him. Yeah, so he
12:35
Speaker 2: does have an advantage over them with the unfamiliarity, because
12:38
Speaker 2: when these young talented pitchers pitch against an offense, it's
12:42
Speaker 2: unfamiliar with them. That's an advantage to the pitcher. So
12:45
Speaker 2: I think you Savage does set up to do fine
12:48
Speaker 2: here and Toronto, can you know, figure out how to
12:51
Speaker 2: work their bullpen here, even though I don't love their bullpen,
12:54
Speaker 2: but they're all rested so they can use it the
12:56
Speaker 2: way that they need to here. Time Madden is pitching
12:59
Speaker 2: for Detroit. This is a major major wild card here.
13:03
Speaker 2: His numbers look good this year, two point four to
13:05
Speaker 2: five ERA, point seven to three WHIP. He's got a
13:08
Speaker 2: zero ERA at home. That's because he's only made two
13:11
Speaker 2: starts and he shut out the Red Sox at home.
13:15
Speaker 2: Assuming those were both starts. No, they were both relief
13:17
Speaker 2: appearances actually, which is another interesting factor here. I think
13:23
Speaker 2: he's been good though. He's pitched a starter's workload in
13:26
Speaker 2: both starts. He's got twelve strikeouts, two walks, six hits
13:30
Speaker 2: allout in eleven innings against you know, Boston and Kansas City.
13:34
Speaker 2: But Toronto hasn't exactly been that great offensively, so he's
13:38
Speaker 2: not exact, you know. I don't think he's like completely
13:40
Speaker 2: stepping up in class here to face Toronto. Madden might
13:44
Speaker 2: actually pitch well here. Man and Toronto I believe has
13:47
Speaker 2: never faced him because he's not pitched much in the league.
13:50
Speaker 2: Lennon Sosa has faced him, and it's one for four
13:52
Speaker 2: with a single off him, no strikeouts, no walks. Madden
13:57
Speaker 2: made six appearances in twenty twenty four, one start, and
14:00
Speaker 2: that's the entirety of his career so far. His numbers
14:04
Speaker 2: weren't really that good that year, four point three r a,
14:07
Speaker 2: one point four to three whip. Few were the ones
14:09
Speaker 2: strike up for inning, a bit too many walks kind of,
14:13
Speaker 2: and too many hits allowed as well. But he might
14:16
Speaker 2: actually be okay. I don't know, man, I mean, he's
14:18
Speaker 2: twenty six. I'm guessing that he was like a decent
14:21
Speaker 2: prospect and that he probably was dealing with injuries, didn't
14:25
Speaker 2: pitch in the majors last year. But he is pitching
14:27
Speaker 2: well right now, so I think I would weigh that
14:30
Speaker 2: more heavily than whatever else is going on here. He
14:34
Speaker 2: might actually pitch well here, So I'm gonna leave this
14:37
Speaker 2: game alone. I think Madden is just too much of
14:39
Speaker 2: a wildcard for me here. If you want to go
14:42
Speaker 2: with like, you could go Detroit under their team total
14:45
Speaker 2: or something like that. That might make some sense with
14:48
Speaker 2: the return home spot. Sometimes the bats are distracted and
14:53
Speaker 2: they're having to go up against the pitcher who is
14:54
Speaker 2: more established, and we know that they've never faced them before,
14:59
Speaker 2: so maybe that's the way to go. I also do
15:00
Speaker 2: lean to Toronto here. Toronto's at about minus one twenty five.
15:04
Speaker 2: The money looks like it's disagreeing on that too, fifty
15:07
Speaker 2: eight percent of tickets, seventy five percent of the cash
15:09
Speaker 2: on Detroit. I don't know if I like it. Man Again,
15:14
Speaker 2: the situation definitely favors Toronto, so I think I am
15:17
Speaker 2: probably I'm just leaning Toronto in that one, but it's
15:19
Speaker 2: not on my card. There are some arguments to be
15:22
Speaker 2: made for an under. I mean both at least first
15:26
Speaker 2: five under, because both starting pitchers may actually pitch well here.
15:29
Speaker 2: Full game is eight money looks like it is coming
15:32
Speaker 2: in towards the under. I'd probably limit it to first
15:35
Speaker 2: five though with Detroit. Definitely Detroit their bullpen is probably
15:40
Speaker 2: one that I would want to avoid here, not definitely,
15:42
Speaker 2: but probably all right, yeah, because Detroit's unrested and their
15:46
Speaker 2: bullpen's not that good. Baltimore at Washington. Washington is returning
15:51
Speaker 2: home from a road trip. A lot of that today,
15:54
Speaker 2: a lot of that happens on Friday. And I'm not
15:57
Speaker 2: fading any of them, by the way, like my only
15:59
Speaker 2: plays are total. Not a good spot for Washington though
16:02
Speaker 2: they went to Miami, they went to Cincinnati, They're now
16:04
Speaker 2: returning home. Could be a distraction, even though this is
16:07
Speaker 2: their interleague rivalry. Baltimore did not play yesterday, so Baltimore
16:14
Speaker 2: has a rest advantage here. But I do worry a
16:15
Speaker 2: little bit because Baltimore just won a series against the Yankees,
16:19
Speaker 2: so they could be in a letdown spot. That's pretty
16:21
Speaker 2: big whenever you beat the Yankees, especially as a divisional foe.
16:26
Speaker 2: And they've finished that series by getting to Max Freed
16:29
Speaker 2: and beating the Yankees seven and nothing in that game,
16:32
Speaker 2: pretty unexpected, So could be a letdown spot for Baltimore here. Baltimore,
16:38
Speaker 2: of course, they're rested, like I said, so we don't
16:40
Speaker 2: really have to look at that. Washington has a really
16:42
Speaker 2: bad bullpen. It looks like they didn't use anybody out
16:45
Speaker 2: of the bullpen, but that's not actually true. They used
16:48
Speaker 2: two guys yesterday in relief, but they're not listed here,
16:50
Speaker 2: so I don't know if they're considered to be starting pitchers.
16:54
Speaker 2: I don't know what Washington is doing, man, I don't
16:57
Speaker 2: their bullpen is bad anyway. The ranked twenty fifth in
16:59
Speaker 2: bold pen, the Orioles a thirteenth, so they're at least
17:03
Speaker 2: a more respectable bullpen. Orioles haven't been good to offensively
17:07
Speaker 2: their twentieth, Washington seventh, so Washington does have the better
17:11
Speaker 2: offense here. Shane Boss is gonna get the start for Baltimore.
17:15
Speaker 2: He has not been good. Five point four to eighty
17:18
Speaker 2: RA one point five to six WHIP slightly better on
17:21
Speaker 2: the road, but home road splits are pretty insignificant. He's
17:24
Speaker 2: been bad this month, although he faced two pretty good
17:27
Speaker 2: hitting teams in the Yankees in the A's but a
17:29
Speaker 2: nine to eight strikeout walk ratio and ten runs allowed
17:33
Speaker 2: almost one run per inning over that span. Yeah, that's
17:36
Speaker 2: not good, although he did only allow ten hits, but again,
17:39
Speaker 2: the eight walks are probably of the reason why he
17:41
Speaker 2: allowed so many runs. You cannot put that many guys
17:44
Speaker 2: on base. Overall, thirty eight nineteen strikeout walk ration on
17:48
Speaker 2: the season is not good. Fifty hits a lot of
17:50
Speaker 2: forty four and a third innings, that's not good. His
17:54
Speaker 2: overall numbers are just pretty bad. His numbers gets Washington
17:58
Speaker 2: though they've never seen him before, so he does have
18:01
Speaker 2: that advantage, the unfamiliarity where they haven't faced him before.
18:04
Speaker 2: I don't know that that's really gonna be enough here though.
18:08
Speaker 2: Zach Lttel is pitching for Washington. He's been bad as well.
18:12
Speaker 2: Six point nine to four ERA, one point six whip.
18:15
Speaker 2: He's been even worse at home seven point seven to
18:18
Speaker 2: one ERA. Washington allows a ton of runs at home typically,
18:22
Speaker 2: so that's not good. Lattel, he looks like he's been
18:28
Speaker 2: a little bit better this month with a three point
18:30
Speaker 2: five two ERA, but he has one strikeout in the
18:33
Speaker 2: two starts this month and two walks, and he hasn't
18:35
Speaker 2: gone more than four innings in any of his last
18:38
Speaker 2: three starts, so really that's not good. He's got a
18:41
Speaker 2: pretty weak seventeen to thirteen strike out walk ratio. It's
18:44
Speaker 2: just he's not striking anybody out. He's not fooling anybody.
18:48
Speaker 2: He's allowed forty five hits and thirty six and a
18:50
Speaker 2: third innings. Yeah, not good. Not good numbers against Baltimore
18:55
Speaker 2: also not really good. In ninety four at bats, nineteen
18:58
Speaker 2: to four strikeout walker is just good. Usually Lattel does
19:01
Speaker 2: actually have good command numbers, but even those don't look
19:04
Speaker 2: that good this year. Two sixty six batting average allowed,
19:07
Speaker 2: eight twenty eight ops. Not good, you know. I mean,
19:12
Speaker 2: my one hesitation here is that Boz is unfamiliar to Washington.
19:16
Speaker 2: The hitting could cool off a little bit when you
19:18
Speaker 2: have like Baltimore head yesterday off Washington returning home from
19:21
Speaker 2: a road trip. That could cool off the hitting a
19:24
Speaker 2: little bit. But that's kind of my only hesitation here
19:26
Speaker 2: because I lean over in this game. I mean, it
19:29
Speaker 2: kind of seems obvious, but if I was gonna play
19:31
Speaker 2: this game, I would go over the total. It's fairly
19:35
Speaker 2: close to being a play for me. Yeah, I mean,
19:38
Speaker 2: you'd go over the nine here. It looks like it's
19:40
Speaker 2: at minus one twenty actually minus one eighteen at the
19:44
Speaker 2: book with the lion right now. But yeah, I would
19:46
Speaker 2: go over nine instead of nine and a half as
19:48
Speaker 2: long as you can get it at minus one twenty
19:50
Speaker 2: or cheaper. If you're doing it that way. The money
19:53
Speaker 2: is coming in on the over, so that line is
19:55
Speaker 2: probably gonna be at nine and a half, like across
19:57
Speaker 2: the board at some point. As far as the side,
20:00
Speaker 2: Baltimore is favored at like minus one forty, and yeah,
20:04
Speaker 2: they have the rest edge. They do have the situational advantage.
20:07
Speaker 2: I probably agree, even though the market is again against
20:10
Speaker 2: it sixty six percent of tickets eighty one percent of
20:13
Speaker 2: the cash on Washington, I probably lean Baltimore again. Boz
20:18
Speaker 2: might have the advantage in the starting pitching. Baltimore has
20:21
Speaker 2: a slightly better bullpen. Baltimore's rested, you know, Boz with
20:25
Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity, that might just give him the edge in
20:27
Speaker 2: the game. I would not play Washington in this game,
20:30
Speaker 2: I'll tell you that. But I think over is definitely
20:32
Speaker 2: the strongest way to look at that game. Then you
20:35
Speaker 2: don't have to worry about what the side is gonna
20:37
Speaker 2: be at all. Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out,
20:41
Speaker 2: Kyle and Tyson. I get you guys confused because you
20:43
Speaker 2: guys both have a Y in your name, and because
20:48
Speaker 2: you two are friends. I'm pretty sure I don't know,
20:50
Speaker 2: and because you both just put my toed emoji there.
20:55
Speaker 2: All right. Cincinnati at Cleveland, as we have another rivalry,
20:59
Speaker 2: of course, the Battle of Ohio. Cleveland is staying at home.
21:03
Speaker 2: And I believe they didn't play yesterday. Cleveland just swept
21:07
Speaker 2: Anaheim at home, but I don't think that's really gonna
21:10
Speaker 2: have that much of an effect on them. I believe
21:12
Speaker 2: they didn't play yesterday, right, No, and Cincinnati did. So
21:16
Speaker 2: Cincinnati played in Cincinnati. But that's not really a bad
21:19
Speaker 2: travel spot. They're starting a road trip. Usually that is
21:22
Speaker 2: a focused spot. I think you will get focused out
21:24
Speaker 2: of Cincinnati here. I don't think they're as good as
21:27
Speaker 2: their record looks, though, but they're only traveling across the
21:30
Speaker 2: state of Ohio here. They did win fifteen to one yesterday, though,
21:34
Speaker 2: that's pretty satisfying, and generally I would want to look
21:37
Speaker 2: to fade a team that just won fifteen to one.
21:41
Speaker 2: Maybe not in this spot, but Cleveland does have the
21:45
Speaker 2: rest advantage here. They're staying at home. Cincinnati used three
21:48
Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. Cleveland's bullpen is rested. Cleveland has the
21:53
Speaker 2: better of the two bullpens as well. They're ranked eleventh
21:55
Speaker 2: and bullpen here. The Reds are twenty eighth. Pretty bad.
22:00
Speaker 2: Cleveland other offense is not that good, but neither of
22:03
Speaker 2: the Reds. Cleveland twenty second, the Red's eighteenth. So these
22:07
Speaker 2: teams have not hit particularly well this year, and Cleveland
22:09
Speaker 2: is a more pitcher friendly ballpark than Cincinnati is. Andrew
22:13
Speaker 2: Abbit is pitching for Cincinnati. He hasn't had a good season,
22:17
Speaker 2: but if you look at his overall at career numbers,
22:20
Speaker 2: like I said, I thought that his numbers were gonna
22:23
Speaker 2: get better this season because his career numbers are better
22:26
Speaker 2: than what we've seen so far, and he is actually
22:28
Speaker 2: pitching better over his last couple starts. He's got a
22:31
Speaker 2: four point four to seventy RA one point five to
22:33
Speaker 2: one whip that is not good, obviously, but he's actually
22:36
Speaker 2: been good on the road two point eighty seven road era.
22:40
Speaker 2: Cincinnati does have a hitter friendly ballpark, although he's he
22:43
Speaker 2: hasn't been bad at home throughout his career either so far,
22:46
Speaker 2: so I don't know what the deal is, but this
22:48
Speaker 2: season he is better on the road. He is pitching
22:51
Speaker 2: better this month. He hasn't even allowed to run, and
22:54
Speaker 2: he faced the Cubs in Houston and those are offenses
22:56
Speaker 2: that could definitely score, so he's shut them out. And
22:59
Speaker 2: he actually had good outing against Colorado to start before
23:02
Speaker 2: that too, So his last three starts have actually been
23:04
Speaker 2: pretty good, except that he walked for guys against the Cubs.
23:08
Speaker 2: But he does look like he's in pretty good form
23:10
Speaker 2: right now. For the most part. He doesn't strike out
23:13
Speaker 2: a ton of guys. His overall numbers don't look very good.
23:15
Speaker 2: Thirty three strikeouts, twenty walks. That ratio is bad, and
23:18
Speaker 2: forty six and a third innings. He's got to get
23:21
Speaker 2: the walk number down. Fifty hits allowed is also pretty bad.
23:24
Speaker 2: But again, he's been better over his last three starts.
23:27
Speaker 2: The number of hits he's allowed has gone down, the
23:30
Speaker 2: number of walks has pretty much gone down as well,
23:32
Speaker 2: So he looks like he is coming into form here.
23:36
Speaker 2: Cleveland is not the greatest offense, and he has been
23:39
Speaker 2: good against them in the past forty eight at bats,
23:41
Speaker 2: ten strikeouts, three walks, two to eight. Batting average allowed
23:45
Speaker 2: five oh five ohps. So I'm gonna lean towards Abbot
23:48
Speaker 2: actually pitching fairly well in this game. That would be
23:51
Speaker 2: what I think is gonna happen. Tanner Biby is pitching
23:54
Speaker 2: for Cleveland. He hasn't had the greatest numbers this season,
23:58
Speaker 2: although they're not horrible numbers. Four point one seven ERA,
24:01
Speaker 2: one point three to five WHIP. He's been really good
24:03
Speaker 2: at home one point six y three home ERA compared
24:07
Speaker 2: to an ERA over eight. On the road, really really
24:10
Speaker 2: crazy home road splits there. He was really good at
24:13
Speaker 2: home last time out against Minnesota. Really recently, he's only
24:18
Speaker 2: had one bad start, Like in his last five starts,
24:20
Speaker 2: he's only made one bad one, which was at Kansas City,
24:23
Speaker 2: and even that one looks like he got a little
24:25
Speaker 2: bit unlucky. He gave up five hits, two walks, and
24:28
Speaker 2: four innings four runs scored against him. That's not great, obviously,
24:32
Speaker 2: but it's it could be a lot worse, especially given
24:34
Speaker 2: how many guys he put on base. Now Biby Cleveland
24:38
Speaker 2: has not won a start of his since his first
24:40
Speaker 2: start of the season against Seattle, so Cleveland is not
24:44
Speaker 2: winning games behind him. But a lot of it is
24:46
Speaker 2: they're not giving him any run support because he's been
24:50
Speaker 2: decent enough that obviously he should have some wins in here.
24:53
Speaker 2: So it's not all his fault, especially recently, he is
24:56
Speaker 2: actually pitching well. His numbers to get Cincinnati are not good, though,
25:01
Speaker 2: and fifty nine at bats three twenty two batting average
25:03
Speaker 2: allowed seven to eighty nine ops sixteen to four strike
25:07
Speaker 2: a walk ratio is good, but the rest of these
25:09
Speaker 2: numbers are bad. Yeah, it's you know, I think I'll
25:15
Speaker 2: lean Cincinnati here, even though I know they played yesterday
25:18
Speaker 2: Cleveland didn't. I don't think the travel spot is that
25:21
Speaker 2: bad for Cincinnati, and starting a road trip usually is
25:23
Speaker 2: focus is a focus spot Abbott again, he's regaining form currently,
25:29
Speaker 2: he has the matchup advantage here. I think maybe first
25:32
Speaker 2: five though for Cincinnati makes more sense because Cleveland does
25:35
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen and they're rested, So I think
25:38
Speaker 2: first five Cincinnati is actually probably the way to play
25:41
Speaker 2: this and then just get the bullpens out of the
25:43
Speaker 2: equation because Cleveland does have a bullpen edge. Here fifty
25:47
Speaker 2: four percent of ticket seventy two percent of the cash
25:50
Speaker 2: on on Cincinnati. Cleveland is at minus one forty basically,
25:54
Speaker 2: so you're getting Cincinnati as an underdog, which I think
25:57
Speaker 2: is also part of the reason why the money's coming
25:59
Speaker 2: in on them, because I think basically this game is
26:01
Speaker 2: being seen as like kind of a toss up by
26:04
Speaker 2: the professionals, so you're getting you know, an underdog price here,
26:08
Speaker 2: like so, you know, it kind of makes sense in
26:12
Speaker 2: that regard. The total is fairly low. It's at eight.
26:15
Speaker 2: It looks like it has gone up a little bit.
26:17
Speaker 2: Money is coming into the over I don't know if
26:19
Speaker 2: I necessarily agree. I can imagine, I can imagine a
26:23
Speaker 2: scenario where both pitchers actually do okay here. I wouldn't
26:27
Speaker 2: want to bank on that Biby bad matchup numbers, but
26:30
Speaker 2: both pictures have been in pretty decent form recently. Other
26:33
Speaker 2: than one bad start from Biby, two starts Ago so
26:36
Speaker 2: and he is way better at home, so I could
26:39
Speaker 2: I could definitely see arguments for the first five under
26:42
Speaker 2: in this one. I would not want to go full
26:44
Speaker 2: game under though, all right, but yeah, I think Cincinnati
26:47
Speaker 2: first five is probably my preference there. Miami at Tampa Bay.
26:51
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is returning home from a road trip. They
26:54
Speaker 2: were in Boston and Toronto, so they're returning from the
26:58
Speaker 2: North so it's not really a good and they did
27:00
Speaker 2: lose a win streak by losing to Toronto in their
27:03
Speaker 2: last game, so that could hang you over sometimes. It
27:07
Speaker 2: was only a three game win streak though, But you know,
27:09
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is gonna have a bit of a target
27:11
Speaker 2: on their back, man, because they have a good record
27:14
Speaker 2: right now. They have the best record of the American League.
27:16
Speaker 2: They're not the best team in the American League though,
27:18
Speaker 2: I'll tell you that right now. Obviously the Yankees are.
27:21
Speaker 2: I don't even think it's close. The American League is horrible.
27:25
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. They're not as good as the record looks.
27:27
Speaker 2: They're winning a lot of close games, so there is
27:30
Speaker 2: gonna be some regression here. This is not a good
27:32
Speaker 2: spot here for Tampa Bay. They did not play yesterday
27:37
Speaker 2: though they had yesterday off, so they at least do
27:39
Speaker 2: have some rest here. Miami did play, so Miami has
27:42
Speaker 2: a rest disadvantage. Miami was in Minnesota, so Miami is
27:46
Speaker 2: returning to Florida from Minnesota, even though they're not returning
27:50
Speaker 2: home here, they're coming down from Minnesota. They kind of
27:53
Speaker 2: got embarrassed in that Minnesota series though they won the
27:56
Speaker 2: game where we actually played Miami, though that's all that matters, man,
28:00
Speaker 2: and then yesterday they got obliterated nine to one. I
28:04
Speaker 2: think Miami is a little bit better than the record
28:06
Speaker 2: looks right now, though, and they're continuing a road trip.
28:11
Speaker 2: I still think I think the spot is better for Miami,
28:13
Speaker 2: even though they're the rest disadvantage. I don't like these
28:15
Speaker 2: teams are turning on from road trips. I think that
28:18
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is a little bit overrated based on the
28:21
Speaker 2: record here Miami. They did use a lot of relief
28:24
Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday though, so Tampa Bay has a arrested bullpen.
28:28
Speaker 2: Miami us four relief pitchers. Miami has the number three
28:32
Speaker 2: bullpen right now, so they have a good bullpen. Timpa
28:35
Speaker 2: Bay is twelfth, but Tampa Bay has been pitching better
28:37
Speaker 2: out of the bullpen recently, and they have a rest
28:40
Speaker 2: edge in the bullpen, So I think these bullpens are
28:42
Speaker 2: pretty close coming into this game. Tampa Bay has had
28:46
Speaker 2: the better hitting. They're at sixteenth Miami's twentieth. But I
28:51
Speaker 2: still kind of like Miami here, especially because when you
28:53
Speaker 2: look at the starting pitching matchup, I think that is
28:56
Speaker 2: an advantage to Miami here. Jansen Junk a favorite. Even
29:00
Speaker 2: though we lost that game that we tried to play
29:02
Speaker 2: on Miami with him starting not too long ago, because
29:06
Speaker 2: they got no runs behind him. Junk was good in
29:09
Speaker 2: that game. He's been good all season pretty much. Three
29:12
Speaker 2: point two five VRA one point one to one whip.
29:16
Speaker 2: He's been pretty good both home and away. It doesn't
29:19
Speaker 2: really matter very insignificant splits there. He's continuing to pitch well.
29:24
Speaker 2: Even though he gave up four runs against Washington. He
29:26
Speaker 2: went six innings, six strikeouts, two walks, seven hits a lot.
29:30
Speaker 2: That's not a bad pitching line there at all. In fact, Yeah,
29:33
Speaker 2: he's been pretty much good all season. He's allowed no
29:36
Speaker 2: more than foreign runs than any outing really just kind
29:39
Speaker 2: of one bad ish outing against Detroit. I would say
29:42
Speaker 2: it was kind of his worst outing there. Yeah, he's
29:45
Speaker 2: been good overall, thirty three to ten strike at walk ratio,
29:49
Speaker 2: thirty nine hits, a lot of forty four to third innings,
29:51
Speaker 2: not a huge strikeout rate, but he's not putting guys
29:54
Speaker 2: on base, so he's definitely succeeding in that regard. And
29:58
Speaker 2: this month, over his last two starts, he's got a
30:00
Speaker 2: twelve two strikeout walk ratio and it becomes eighteen to
30:05
Speaker 2: four if you go back over his last four starts.
30:08
Speaker 2: So he's in good form right now. Against Tampa Bay,
30:12
Speaker 2: they basically haven't seen him. Only four Tes and Mullins
30:15
Speaker 2: have seen him before in they're zero for five against
30:17
Speaker 2: him of a strikeout, So Junk has the unfamiliarity edge here,
30:22
Speaker 2: and he's pitched well against a couple guys that have
30:23
Speaker 2: faced him before. Jesse Schulten's is pitching for Tampa Bay.
30:28
Speaker 2: His numbers do look good this year, but I don't
30:30
Speaker 2: trust him Man three point two ninety ray, one point
30:33
Speaker 2: one seven whip, A lot of that has been pitching
30:35
Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, though he hasn't been good at
30:38
Speaker 2: home four point oh eight home ye ra, so you
30:40
Speaker 2: could definitely fade him at home. Really, he hasn't done
30:44
Speaker 2: much that looks that good to me. I mean, I'm
30:47
Speaker 2: surprised his numbers look this good because if you look
30:49
Speaker 2: at his last four outings when they kind of started
30:52
Speaker 2: converting him into a starter, it's not really good. He
30:55
Speaker 2: only went five innings in one of them, you know,
30:59
Speaker 2: I mean, the number one he's allowed doesn't look that
31:01
Speaker 2: good to me. He said, seven walks over that span,
31:06
Speaker 2: although you know, fourteen strikeouts it looks like but still
31:08
Speaker 2: that's a lot of walks, you know. Just overall, these
31:12
Speaker 2: numbers don't really look that good to me, And seventeen
31:15
Speaker 2: hits a lot over that span as well. In whatever
31:18
Speaker 2: that is. I think it's fewer than one hit per
31:21
Speaker 2: inning though, but not by much. Overall, he's got twenty
31:24
Speaker 2: one strikeouts, ten walks, twenty two hits at twenty seven
31:26
Speaker 2: to third innings. That's not bad. But I don't trust him. Actually,
31:30
Speaker 2: I think they've tried to kind of make him a
31:32
Speaker 2: starter for most of the season. But yeah, I don't know.
31:36
Speaker 2: Just his numbers do not impress me. And looking at
31:38
Speaker 2: his pitching lines here, like, I'm shocked that his overall
31:42
Speaker 2: numbers ERA and whip wise look as good as they do.
31:46
Speaker 2: I don't think he's that good Miami. I don't think
31:49
Speaker 2: he's really seen him much though. Yeah, Miami only has
31:52
Speaker 2: two guys who have faced him, Morel and Ruiz, and
31:55
Speaker 2: they're zero for three with two strikeouts off him. So
31:57
Speaker 2: that's kind of where the concern comes in. But I
31:59
Speaker 2: lean Myami in this game, but they are to rest
32:01
Speaker 2: disadvantage here. Their bullpen is unrested even though they generally
32:05
Speaker 2: have a really good bullpen. Money is agreeing with me
32:09
Speaker 2: on Miami on that one sixty four percent of tickets
32:11
Speaker 2: and fifty four percent of the cash on Tampa Bay.
32:14
Speaker 2: So I think the money is agreeing with Miami. You're
32:16
Speaker 2: getting him as an underdog here. Tampa Bay is around
32:18
Speaker 2: minus one twenty at a lot of these books here,
32:21
Speaker 2: so you get Miami as a dog. You could take
32:24
Speaker 2: Miami first five if you want to remove the bullpen
32:27
Speaker 2: rest disadvantage that they have here, So that somewhat makes
32:31
Speaker 2: sense to me as well in that game. But yeah,
32:34
Speaker 2: I mean that's a game I don't want to touch it.
32:37
Speaker 2: All right. We have Apple TV does have Toronto and
32:40
Speaker 2: Detroit by the way for some reason, but they also
32:43
Speaker 2: are going to be airing New York New York the
32:48
Speaker 2: Subway series Yankees Mets, and the National League is dominated
32:53
Speaker 2: inter league so far. But yeah, the Yankees are clearly
32:56
Speaker 2: better than the Mets. Okay, the Mets have won three
32:59
Speaker 2: in a row. The Mets just swept Detroit. Of course, Detroit,
33:03
Speaker 2: you know, has a lot of problems right now, and
33:05
Speaker 2: they're starting pitching rotation, school ball might miss the entire season,
33:09
Speaker 2: you know. Detroit. Yeah, they're kind of dead dead Troit Mets.
33:15
Speaker 2: You know, they're not gonna overlook the Yankees, though. The Mets,
33:18
Speaker 2: like I think they're gonna show up for this series.
33:20
Speaker 2: They're staying at home. The Yankees, I believe, were Yeah,
33:23
Speaker 2: the Yankees were in Baltimore, but they're they're technically still
33:27
Speaker 2: on the road. But I think this is kind of
33:29
Speaker 2: a return home spot, you know what I mean, Because
33:32
Speaker 2: you're returning to New York City, so you're going to
33:34
Speaker 2: be going home, you know what I mean. You're back
33:36
Speaker 2: in your home city. So obviously these guys are gonna
33:38
Speaker 2: be going back to their homes. So it is a
33:41
Speaker 2: return home spot, even though technically on the schedule it isn't.
33:45
Speaker 2: So I think the distractions for the Yankees could be
33:48
Speaker 2: a little bit of a bit of an issue here,
33:50
Speaker 2: but they might remain focused because they have lost four
33:53
Speaker 2: of the last five games, so that might keep them focused.
33:56
Speaker 2: They got shut out in their last game, so that
33:57
Speaker 2: might have them focused as well. It is, you know,
34:01
Speaker 2: it's always a big series, the Yankees Mets, you know,
34:04
Speaker 2: the big rivalry, so maybe that will keep them focusing
34:07
Speaker 2: off here. But you know, the way that I'm gonna
34:12
Speaker 2: attack this game is it kind of in line with
34:15
Speaker 2: the hitting being distracted though, because I like this game
34:18
Speaker 2: to go under. This one almost made my card. The
34:21
Speaker 2: bullpens that we're dealing with here are not that bad.
34:23
Speaker 2: The Yankees were off yesterday, by the way, so the
34:26
Speaker 2: Yankees are rested as well, which I think can cool
34:28
Speaker 2: off the hitting even more. It can help the bullpen
34:32
Speaker 2: because the bullpen's rested. The Yankees are the ninth ranked
34:34
Speaker 2: bullpen this year, so they got rid of their bad
34:38
Speaker 2: relief pitchers they had last year. The Mets are right
34:40
Speaker 2: behind them tenth, even though the Mets did play yesterday,
34:45
Speaker 2: but the Mets are staying at home. The Mets only
34:48
Speaker 2: use two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, so not
34:51
Speaker 2: really a huge deal. They're both bullpen's set up pretty
34:54
Speaker 2: nicely here. Yankees obviously are very good offensively, but maybe
34:57
Speaker 2: they'll be cooled off a little bit coming into this one.
35:00
Speaker 2: The ranked third, the Mets are ranked dead last thirtieth,
35:03
Speaker 2: so the Yankees have a much better offense. But I
35:07
Speaker 2: think this is gonna be a pitching duel, and the
35:08
Speaker 2: oddsmakers think so as well. Cam Schlitzler is pitching for
35:12
Speaker 2: the Yankees, really good numbers. One point three to five,
35:15
Speaker 2: ERA point eight, one whip. He's been almost untouchable on
35:19
Speaker 2: the road, point nine to eight roady ra here. Yeah,
35:24
Speaker 2: I mean he's been good all season. He's allowed no
35:26
Speaker 2: more than three on runs in any outing, fifty nine
35:29
Speaker 2: to nine strikeout walker ratio, thirty four hits allowed in
35:32
Speaker 2: fifty three and a third innings. His recent starts have
35:35
Speaker 2: been just as good, if not better, you know, although
35:39
Speaker 2: his strikeout rate actually did go down a little bit
35:41
Speaker 2: in one of them. But whatever. Yeah, he's pitching really well.
35:45
Speaker 2: His numbers against the Mets. They basically haven't faced him before.
35:49
Speaker 2: Only Bo Baschett has seen him because Bishett was on
35:52
Speaker 2: Toronto so he was in that division. Bashett has won
35:55
Speaker 2: for four, often with a double and a strikeout, but
35:58
Speaker 2: I think Schlitzler sets up to do well. He's facing
36:01
Speaker 2: a really weak lineup that hasn't seen him before. Schlitler
36:05
Speaker 2: could definitely come in and dominate in this game. Clay
36:08
Speaker 2: Holmes is pitching on the other side for the Mets.
36:10
Speaker 2: He might get up for this too because he did
36:12
Speaker 2: play for the Yankees for a while, although he has
36:15
Speaker 2: faced the Yankees since then, I'm pretty sure. But he's
36:17
Speaker 2: been pitching well this year. One point eight sixty RA,
36:20
Speaker 2: one point h one whip. I mean, numbers that are
36:23
Speaker 2: this good. Like both these pitchers. These numbers are pretty unsustainable,
36:26
Speaker 2: but they're both good. Holmes has been good at home
36:30
Speaker 2: at one point four to seven e RA. He's pitching
36:33
Speaker 2: pretty well recently as well. Those walk number was a
36:36
Speaker 2: little bit higher recently, but still, I mean, he's been
36:39
Speaker 2: good all season. He's allowed no more than to earned
36:41
Speaker 2: runs in any outing this entire season, including facing the
36:45
Speaker 2: Dodgers in there, He's faced a couple of pretty good lineups.
36:49
Speaker 2: You know, the Dodgers are the most comparable to the Yankees.
36:51
Speaker 2: He held them to two runs in five innings, so
36:54
Speaker 2: and you know, it wasn't really anything misleading about that.
36:57
Speaker 2: He's got thirty seven strikeouts, sixteen walks in forty eight
37:00
Speaker 2: and the third innings. You know, I mean, the strike
37:03
Speaker 2: out rates not that high. He's more of a ground
37:05
Speaker 2: ball inducing pitcher, so that's just the way that he pitches.
37:09
Speaker 2: The walks he'd like to see a little bit lower
37:11
Speaker 2: than that, but not horrible. And thirty three hits allowed
37:14
Speaker 2: is really good. He's not been very hittable. His numbers
37:17
Speaker 2: against the Yankees are actually pretty good as well. You
37:21
Speaker 2: know what I might add this. I know I got
37:23
Speaker 2: in trouble adding an under to my card yesterday, but
37:26
Speaker 2: I kind of want to do this now that I'm
37:28
Speaker 2: digging into this even further. Holmes has good numbers against
37:31
Speaker 2: the Yankees. The only issue is the seven forty seven
37:34
Speaker 2: ops is slightly high, but it's still below that seven
37:38
Speaker 2: to fifty and he's held them to a one to
37:40
Speaker 2: seventy two batting average in twenty nine at bats. So
37:43
Speaker 2: he's done well except for the walks. Ten strikeout seven
37:46
Speaker 2: walks against them. Other than that, his numbers are pretty
37:49
Speaker 2: good against the Yankees. You know, I definitely like the
37:53
Speaker 2: under in this game. You know, the bullpens look like
37:57
Speaker 2: they set up decently here. The rest slash return home
38:01
Speaker 2: scenario for the Yankees might cool off their bats a
38:04
Speaker 2: little bit here because obviously I think the Yankees are
38:06
Speaker 2: gonna be the team doing more scoring doing more scoring here. Obviously,
38:10
Speaker 2: I think the Yankees are gonna win this game. They're
38:12
Speaker 2: about a minus one fifty or so favorite here, seventy
38:15
Speaker 2: one percent of ticket seventy eight percent of the cash
38:17
Speaker 2: on the Yankees. Well, not obviously, because it is a
38:20
Speaker 2: return home spot for the Yankees. So I'm not gonna
38:23
Speaker 2: do anything with the side in this one. Like, I
38:26
Speaker 2: do think the Mets could actually kind of hang in
38:29
Speaker 2: this game based on the fact that I think it's
38:30
Speaker 2: gonna be a pitching duel. It could be close. Although yes,
38:33
Speaker 2: I think the Yankees will win the game because I
38:35
Speaker 2: think they do have just I just think Schlitzler is
38:38
Speaker 2: too good, Like I'm probably never gonna fade the Yankees
38:42
Speaker 2: when he's on the mound man, although I don't want
38:45
Speaker 2: to really play on the Yankees either, because I think
38:47
Speaker 2: at this point you're paying attacks on the Yankees even
38:52
Speaker 2: like with him on the mound, because people know who
38:53
Speaker 2: he is now. But yes, I like the under uh
38:57
Speaker 2: the totals at seven it looks like you can get
38:59
Speaker 2: a decent price on these seven. Let me look right now,
39:02
Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
39:04
Speaker 2: cash on the under money looks like it is agreeing
39:07
Speaker 2: with me on this, dude. I mean, if I add
39:10
Speaker 2: another play on the fly, I don't know, it better
39:13
Speaker 2: work out for me this time if it happens. It
39:15
Speaker 2: was the Mets that were the culprit yesterday too. I
39:17
Speaker 2: did it yesterday with the Mats. I mean, the market
39:21
Speaker 2: read looks like it is good on this to me.
39:25
Speaker 2: Let me see, like looking at some of the other
39:28
Speaker 2: sites here, I'm trying to find the best number that
39:29
Speaker 2: we can get on this. The place it starts with
39:36
Speaker 2: the bee that's named after the gym actually has a
39:38
Speaker 2: seven and a half at minus one eighteen. All right,
39:42
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do it. You can also find under seven. Dude.
39:48
Speaker 2: Streamyard's messing me up right now. Man. They're like giving
39:51
Speaker 2: me like random like tips in the middle of the
39:54
Speaker 2: stuff I'm trying to do here. Hold on, this is
39:57
Speaker 2: gonna be a best bet. There you go. I'm adding
39:59
Speaker 2: the ban. Yes, this is gonna be Matt's Yankees under
40:06
Speaker 2: seven and a half at minus one eighteen. But of
40:09
Speaker 2: course I found like a good number at it, at
40:11
Speaker 2: that book, and I don't even know if that book
40:13
Speaker 2: is gonna let me. That book has been telling me
40:16
Speaker 2: that my like my transfers of money in aren't working anymore.
40:21
Speaker 2: So I don't know what's going, Like you think if
40:23
Speaker 2: the book was limiting you, and especially because I'm in Massachusetts,
40:27
Speaker 2: like there's a law in effect. I'm pretty sure as
40:29
Speaker 2: of this month where the books are required to tell
40:32
Speaker 2: you why they're limiting you. But maybe there is a loophole.
40:35
Speaker 2: They're getting around it by saying, oh no, it's a glitch.
40:37
Speaker 2: You can't put money in anymore. So yeah, fuck that
40:40
Speaker 2: book that starts with the B. But this is the
40:43
Speaker 2: number there. Otherwise under seven you can find it like
40:46
Speaker 2: plus money right now, So I would do that, and
40:49
Speaker 2: you know you could definitely find sevens at least out there,
40:52
Speaker 2: very abundant there. So yeah, I'll add the under in
40:55
Speaker 2: the Mets game again, Josh, what's up? Thanks for hanging
40:58
Speaker 2: out all right, So that's gonna be one baseball play there.
41:03
Speaker 2: Oh man, I gotta speed this thing up, baseball. I
41:05
Speaker 2: hate how long it takes me to get through baseball.
41:08
Speaker 2: This game is gonna be quicker to handicap because we
41:10
Speaker 2: have no idea who Milwaukee is starting for their starter here.
41:14
Speaker 2: Milwaukee at Minnesota. Minnesota played yesterday, I believe against Miami.
41:19
Speaker 2: They're staying at home, so Minnesota doesn't have to travel,
41:23
Speaker 2: but Milwaukee's only coming in from Milwaukee, so that's not
41:25
Speaker 2: a bad travel spot either. Milwaukee's been hot. They've won
41:29
Speaker 2: five or six of their last seven games, I believe
41:31
Speaker 2: is what that is. They beat San Diego yesterday, so
41:34
Speaker 2: both teams did play yesterday. Milwaukee starting a road trip
41:38
Speaker 2: a lot of times you will be focused to start
41:40
Speaker 2: the road trip. I think Milwaukee's the better team here,
41:44
Speaker 2: but they're gonna have to go up against Minnesota's ace here,
41:46
Speaker 2: and we have no idea who Milwaukee has as a
41:49
Speaker 2: starting pitcher here, like I said, so that kind of
41:52
Speaker 2: makes this game difficult to handicap. Milwaukee used three guys
41:56
Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Minnesota looks like they didn't
41:59
Speaker 2: use anybody wait to not play yesterday. They did. Yeah,
42:02
Speaker 2: I don't know what the deals with that. Zebbi Zebbie
42:04
Speaker 2: Matthews actually pitched pretty well. Ridiculous name by the way,
42:08
Speaker 2: ye I had that game wrong. Braxi. Garrett looks like
42:11
Speaker 2: he's not ready to go. Apparently, maybe Zebby is gonna
42:14
Speaker 2: be finally good man. He has one of the most
42:16
Speaker 2: ridiculous names. Why would he want to be called Zebi? Man?
42:20
Speaker 2: I think his name is actually like, uh, I don't know,
42:24
Speaker 2: his name is like something really normal that it starts
42:27
Speaker 2: with a D. It's like Doug or I don't know,
42:30
Speaker 2: Daniel something like that. Yeah, I think it's Daniel. But Zebbi.
42:34
Speaker 2: His middle name is Zebulon and his nickname is Zebbi
42:38
Speaker 2: for that reason. That's why his name is Zebbi. I
42:42
Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you about that, man,
42:45
Speaker 2: I mean it. I'll give you that. It's way more unique,
42:48
Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Because if you just go round,
42:50
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, hey, I'm I'm Dan Matthews or whatever the
42:54
Speaker 2: fuck his name is. Yeah, I mean, everybody's named Dave Matthews.
42:57
Speaker 3: What.
42:58
Speaker 2: No, but like everybody's name that. So maybe he doesn't
43:02
Speaker 2: want to hide he wants his name to have a
43:04
Speaker 2: little bit of cashet. It's got cashet, baby, I gotta
43:09
Speaker 2: remind myself. I gotta add that that Seinfeld drop. When
43:12
Speaker 2: George wants to name his kid seven. If anybody remembers
43:16
Speaker 2: that that's what I'm gonna do. I gotta get that
43:18
Speaker 2: as a drop because it's the Mickey Mantle number. Man.
43:21
Speaker 2: All right, I'm ranting. I thought this game. I was
43:22
Speaker 2: gonna do this game quick. Yes, Minnesota, I know their
43:27
Speaker 2: bullpen's a little bit more rested, but their bullpen is
43:29
Speaker 2: totally unreliable. Minnesota's bullpen is awful. They're twenty ninth, their
43:34
Speaker 2: second worst, horrible. The Brewers are ranked sixteenth. Brewers definitely
43:39
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen, even though I think they did
43:42
Speaker 2: use McGill. They use their closer yesterday, but I still
43:45
Speaker 2: give Minnesota. Give Milwaukee a bullpen edge here. Minnesota's hit
43:50
Speaker 2: okay this year. They're thirteenth, the Brewers are nineteenth. Brewers
43:53
Speaker 2: starting to come around because they're getting some of their
43:55
Speaker 2: hitters back. Joe Ryan, like I said, he is pitching
43:58
Speaker 2: for Minnesota here, and ESPN won't fucking load three point
44:03
Speaker 2: four to three ERA one point zero three whip for
44:06
Speaker 2: Joe Ryan. Good stuff. Obviously, he's been better at home
44:09
Speaker 2: as well. Two point six home ERA looks pretty good recently,
44:14
Speaker 2: although he had one start where he got injured against
44:16
Speaker 2: Toronto and basically barely even made the start, but he
44:19
Speaker 2: was definitely fine coming back from that. Two hit Cleveland
44:25
Speaker 2: for six innings, so he did well there, although he
44:27
Speaker 2: walked three guys. But I'm not really concerned with Ryan.
44:30
Speaker 2: I think he's fine. Forty forty five strikeouts, thirteen walks,
44:35
Speaker 2: thirty three hits allowed, forty four and two thirds innings
44:38
Speaker 2: for Ryan. We know he's good. Man. His numbers against
44:41
Speaker 2: the Brewers I believe are also good, which is not
44:45
Speaker 2: surprising obviously, sixty nine at bats against them, twenty one
44:49
Speaker 2: to five strike out walk ratio. He's got good numbers
44:52
Speaker 2: against them, two zero three batting average allowed, five eighteen ops.
44:57
Speaker 2: I do not want to fae Joe Rye in here, man.
45:00
Speaker 2: I don't know who Milwaukee is gonna put up as
45:01
Speaker 2: the starter. If it's somebody decent, I mean, we could
45:04
Speaker 2: be looking at a potential under in this game. But
45:07
Speaker 2: even if if I was gonna go under in a
45:09
Speaker 2: Minnesota game like at all, I would probably go first
45:12
Speaker 2: five on it, just because they're bullpend. I just can't
45:14
Speaker 2: trust it, man, But we don't really have anything to
45:17
Speaker 2: work with here in this game. Minnesota is a very
45:20
Speaker 2: slight favorite. It's basically like a pick the winner. So
45:23
Speaker 2: even with Joe Ryan on the mound, the oddsmakers are
45:25
Speaker 2: telling you Milwaukee is the better team. Like, if Joe
45:28
Speaker 2: Ryan is listed at a pick em price, you know
45:31
Speaker 2: that that means that Minnesota's team around him sucks, which
45:36
Speaker 2: is the case. But Ryan might be good enough to
45:38
Speaker 2: keep them in this game. Man. But yeah, I don't
45:41
Speaker 2: have a good read on it. I would like to
45:42
Speaker 2: know who Milwaukee is actually gonna start. I guess we
45:45
Speaker 2: can look briefly at what their schedule looks like to
45:48
Speaker 2: try to figure that out. I don't know if somebody's
45:51
Speaker 2: injured or what. So, Yeah, Harris had pitched yesterday. Well
45:56
Speaker 2: we just have to go back. Let me say to
46:00
Speaker 2: this game, which was an extra inning game against the Yankees.
46:04
Speaker 2: Who started this game for Milwaukee? No, that was Harrison.
46:07
Speaker 2: Harrison pitched yesterday. Chad Patrick came in relief, So it
46:11
Speaker 2: might be Chad Patrick actually in this game. I don't
46:14
Speaker 2: know when the last time he pitched was. He pitched
46:18
Speaker 2: on the twelve, but he only pitched for one inning. Yeah,
46:21
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're doing, man. It looks like
46:22
Speaker 2: it may be a bullpen game for the Brewers, and
46:24
Speaker 2: maybe Patrick will be in the game. But I don't
46:27
Speaker 2: think he's gonna get a starters workloads. See, I have
46:29
Speaker 2: no idea what Milwaukee's doing. All right, the next game
46:32
Speaker 2: is going to be a play for me Boston Atlanta,
46:35
Speaker 2: so another best bet here. We need to get some
46:44
Speaker 2: of these right man. This game, we're also going under
46:47
Speaker 2: this one. You can go under eight in this game.
46:50
Speaker 2: I like how this sets up, man. I mean, there's
46:54
Speaker 2: maybe some slight concerns with it, but I think I
46:56
Speaker 2: like it. The Red Sox were also just playing a
46:59
Speaker 2: ton of under games. But Atlanta also kind of is.
47:02
Speaker 2: I mean Atlanta the last three games have gone under
47:05
Speaker 2: this total, and if you go all the way back
47:07
Speaker 2: to the middle game of the series against Seattle, they've
47:14
Speaker 2: had six out of the eight games go under this total,
47:17
Speaker 2: and the only two that went over were nine run
47:19
Speaker 2: games against the Dodgers. So Atlanta's been playing a lot
47:23
Speaker 2: of low scoring games, even though their offense is good.
47:25
Speaker 2: I think people get thrown off by Oh, this offense
47:28
Speaker 2: is good, that means we should go over. But no,
47:31
Speaker 2: because the Braves pitching has been good and the Red
47:33
Speaker 2: Sox offense sucks. So I don't think the Red Sox
47:35
Speaker 2: are gonna score much in this game at all, But
47:39
Speaker 2: I think the Red Sox pitching is good enough to
47:41
Speaker 2: also hold up their end of the bargain here. That's
47:43
Speaker 2: what we got going on. Now. The Braves, I think
47:45
Speaker 2: could be in a letdown spot or a hangover spot.
47:47
Speaker 2: I mean, the Braves just lost to the Cubs yesterday
47:50
Speaker 2: two to nine, thing, and that was a big series
47:52
Speaker 2: and that ended a four game win streak for the Braves.
47:56
Speaker 2: So sometimes that will hang you over into the next game.
47:59
Speaker 2: So maybe that's a little bit of an issue. It
48:01
Speaker 2: might effect they're hitting a little bit. I don't know,
48:03
Speaker 2: we'll see, but you know, I mean, this is a
48:07
Speaker 2: rivalry series. Are they gonna overlook the Red Sox? I
48:09
Speaker 2: don't know. The Red Sox need to do something. The
48:12
Speaker 2: Red Sox are starting a road trip, so I actually
48:14
Speaker 2: think the spot, the situation, the situation actually does favor
48:18
Speaker 2: the Red Sox slightly. Here. They're starting a road trip,
48:21
Speaker 2: coming off of a loss. They lost three of their
48:23
Speaker 2: last four games at home. Red Sox got to get
48:26
Speaker 2: something going, man, and it's been their offense. The Red
48:28
Speaker 2: Sox pitching has been fine. The Red sox last four
48:32
Speaker 2: games have all seen five or fewer runs scored, so
48:35
Speaker 2: this Red Sox team, both of these teams are trending
48:38
Speaker 2: way under you know recently, Red Sox going on the
48:42
Speaker 2: road usually, yes, it is a focused spot when you
48:45
Speaker 2: start a road trip. But there's nothing helping the Red
48:47
Speaker 2: Sox offense right now. Man, So yeah. As far as
48:52
Speaker 2: the bullpens, both bullpens are good. Atlanta's rank number one,
48:56
Speaker 2: the Red Sox are ranked six, so we have bullpens
48:59
Speaker 2: that can definitely up their end. Even though I know
49:01
Speaker 2: the Red Sox used too many guys in relief yesterday,
49:04
Speaker 2: but a lot of them didn't throw that many pitches,
49:06
Speaker 2: so I think they might use some of them again. Yes,
49:09
Speaker 2: they use five guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They
49:11
Speaker 2: did not use Chapman yesterday though, although Weissert hasn't been
49:17
Speaker 2: used for a while. That worries me because he sucks.
49:20
Speaker 2: I don't want him to come in, but you know,
49:21
Speaker 2: they might use him today. But they might be able
49:23
Speaker 2: to use some of the guys that they used yesterday.
49:26
Speaker 2: Not Slayton though, because he's pitched two games two days
49:28
Speaker 2: in a row. Samaniego might pitch again today though, But anyway, whatever,
49:33
Speaker 2: I'm still okay with factoring in the Red Sox bullpen here,
49:36
Speaker 2: plus Atlanta's bullpen is more rested, and they used they
49:42
Speaker 2: used Ronaldo Lopez and Bummer out of the bullpen, so
49:44
Speaker 2: they didn't use anybody good out of the bullpen yesterday.
49:48
Speaker 2: So yeah, Atlanta's bullpen does set up well here, better
49:52
Speaker 2: than the Red Sox and they're the better bullpen anyway. Yes,
49:55
Speaker 2: Atlanta's number one in hitting, but the Red Sox are
49:57
Speaker 2: twenty seventh. And again, I think good pitch can counter
50:01
Speaker 2: good hitting here. Connolly Erroli is getting the start for
50:04
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. I think he's pretty solid man three
50:07
Speaker 2: point one six ERA, one point two to whip. He's
50:10
Speaker 2: been better on the road. Take him away from Fenway
50:13
Speaker 2: where it's a hitter friendly ballpark. He's got a two
50:16
Speaker 2: point oh one Roady Ray, so he's been good on
50:18
Speaker 2: the road. Uh. He just pitched a shutout for seven
50:21
Speaker 2: innings against Tampa Bay, so he bounced back into for
50:24
Speaker 2: him after a bad start against Houston. That starting against
50:28
Speaker 2: Houston looks like an outlier because most of his other
50:30
Speaker 2: starts this season, except he was a little bit shaky
50:33
Speaker 2: against the Yankees. The rest of these starts were good
50:36
Speaker 2: and well, Yes, I know that doesn't mean he hasn't
50:38
Speaker 2: done well against the best offenses. He's faced Yankees in Houston,
50:41
Speaker 2: so that might mean he might not pitch well here
50:43
Speaker 2: against Atlanta, But Atlanta's never seen him before, so I
50:47
Speaker 2: think he might be able to do well enough to
50:49
Speaker 2: hold this game under His strikeout walk ratio is a
50:53
Speaker 2: little bit concerning, thirty nine strike cuts eighteen walks. He's
50:57
Speaker 2: got to get that walk number down. Thirty four hits
50:59
Speaker 2: all out in four and two thirds innings is pretty good,
51:01
Speaker 2: though he's been tough to hit. His strikeout rates decent. Again,
51:06
Speaker 2: the walk numbers actually gone down recently, though He's walked
51:09
Speaker 2: one in each of two of his last three outings,
51:12
Speaker 2: so that's a decent sign. He's gaining his form a
51:16
Speaker 2: little bit, gaining control a little bit. And again, the
51:18
Speaker 2: Braves have never faced him, so that's usually an advantage
51:22
Speaker 2: to these young pitchers and they haven't been seen before,
51:24
Speaker 2: so I think he'll do well enough. We are gonna
51:27
Speaker 2: have to rely on Spencer Strider here, though, and we
51:29
Speaker 2: still don't really know if he's fully back from injury,
51:32
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna argue that he is based on what
51:34
Speaker 2: we saw out of him from his last outing. Strider
51:37
Speaker 2: was really good before he had his injury Man, and
51:40
Speaker 2: then you know, he tried to come back from injury.
51:43
Speaker 2: Didn't do that well last year really, but you know,
51:46
Speaker 2: he's shown signs of maybe getting back to somewhere where
51:49
Speaker 2: he once was, and he might be doing it right
51:52
Speaker 2: now this season. He's got a two point eight to
51:53
Speaker 2: ninety array one point two to nine whip. It's only
51:55
Speaker 2: in two starts, but look at what he did in
51:58
Speaker 2: his last start man the road against the Dodgers. He
52:01
Speaker 2: one hit them, shut them out for six innings, eight strikeouts,
52:05
Speaker 2: two walks. That pretty much indicates to me that he's
52:08
Speaker 2: fully back. Man. If he's gonna do that against one
52:11
Speaker 2: of the best offenses in baseball. Granted, the Dodgers have
52:14
Speaker 2: not been hitting well recently, but still that is that
52:18
Speaker 2: That is a much more encouraging sign than Strider struggling
52:22
Speaker 2: in his first outing, which was at Course Field. He
52:24
Speaker 2: was wild in that one, But the fact that he
52:27
Speaker 2: dominated the Dodgers on the road, that's pretty good to me.
52:31
Speaker 2: This is gonna be his first home start of the season.
52:34
Speaker 2: I don't know what his home splits looked like. Last year,
52:36
Speaker 2: by the way, they were not very significant. He was
52:39
Speaker 2: actually a little bit worse at home, but it wasn't
52:41
Speaker 2: by by a huge amount. Strider against the Red Sox,
52:47
Speaker 2: they haven't seen too much of him. They only have
52:49
Speaker 2: four hitters who have faced him eleven at bats. They
52:52
Speaker 2: have two strikeouts, no walks against him, a two seventy
52:54
Speaker 2: three average five forty five ops. So Strider has some
52:58
Speaker 2: unfamiliarity here. Red Sox when they have seen them, they
53:01
Speaker 2: haven't really done that well against him, So under is
53:05
Speaker 2: my call in this one. The money looks very, very
53:07
Speaker 2: similar to what it looks like in the Yankees Mets game.
53:11
Speaker 2: I know, it looks like there's kind of a lot
53:12
Speaker 2: of public action on it. These numbers are moving around
53:15
Speaker 2: a lot, but it looks like the actual money is
53:17
Speaker 2: kind of there as well. Though. In this one we
53:18
Speaker 2: see ninety four percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash.
53:21
Speaker 2: But I don't the public is not coming in and
53:24
Speaker 2: playing an under in this game, man, I just don't
53:27
Speaker 2: think they're doing that. So that's what we're gonna do.
53:30
Speaker 2: Under in this one totals at eight, Like I said,
53:34
Speaker 2: so it's a reasonable number. In this game, money looks
53:37
Speaker 2: like it's indicating on the Red Sox. And what that
53:40
Speaker 2: indicates to me is that the professional money thinks that
53:44
Speaker 2: Early will do well enough in this game. And I
53:47
Speaker 2: like that. You know, as far as the under is concerned,
53:50
Speaker 2: you can kind of gauge some things by looking at
53:51
Speaker 2: where the money on the side is, because if the
53:54
Speaker 2: money is backing the pitcher that you think is a
53:57
Speaker 2: little bit less proven, you know what I mean, that's
54:00
Speaker 2: a good sign that it seems like maybe an under
54:04
Speaker 2: is actually the right way to look at the total
54:07
Speaker 2: here eighty seven percent of ticket, seventy eight percent of
54:09
Speaker 2: the cash on Atlanta. The feeling might just be that
54:12
Speaker 2: Atlanta shouldn't be favored this heavily, though, and minus won
54:15
Speaker 2: fifty basically is what they are. It's not that heavy
54:18
Speaker 2: of a price though, But you know, I just I
54:21
Speaker 2: think the pitching wins out in that game, all right.
54:27
Speaker 2: The other Subway series Chicago Chicago Cubs at White Sox.
54:31
Speaker 2: The White Sox have won five games in a row.
54:34
Speaker 2: They're above five hundred, and I am pretty sure that
54:36
Speaker 2: if the playoffs started right now, the White Sox would
54:39
Speaker 2: make the playoffs playoffs. That's how bad the American League is.
54:44
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm pretty certain that the White Sox
54:47
Speaker 2: would be a wild card. I'm looking at the wildcard
54:51
Speaker 2: standings here, though it doesn't it's not actually showing me anything.
54:54
Speaker 2: I guess ESPN doesn't do that yet. I don't know. Yeah,
54:59
Speaker 2: I think I'm right about that, but whatever. Anyway, pretty ridiculous.
55:03
Speaker 2: The Cubs are good, though we know this, and the
55:05
Speaker 2: National League is good. But the White Sox, you know,
55:08
Speaker 2: even though they're on a hot streak right now, they
55:09
Speaker 2: just swept the Royals, which is pretty big for them,
55:13
Speaker 2: especially with the White Sox being so bad recently, they're
55:16
Speaker 2: not going to overlook the Cubs, though, man, the Cubs
55:19
Speaker 2: might be more likely to overlook the White Sox. Except
55:21
Speaker 2: for the fact that the Cubs just ended a four
55:24
Speaker 2: game losing streak by beating the Braves. You could argue
55:27
Speaker 2: it's a letdown spot, but you could also make the
55:29
Speaker 2: argument that they ended a losing streak, and when teams
55:31
Speaker 2: do that a lot of times, that gives them new
55:34
Speaker 2: momentum and they go on a win streak. You know
55:36
Speaker 2: what I mean, because you just ended that losing streak.
55:39
Speaker 2: The Cubs are overall the better team here, though there's obviously.
55:42
Speaker 2: I think no question about that, especially the bullpen. Although
55:46
Speaker 2: the Cubs used four relief pitchers yesterday so their bullpen
55:49
Speaker 2: isn't terribly rested. The White Sox used two, but I
55:53
Speaker 2: still give the Cubs the bullpen edge there. Rank seventh
55:55
Speaker 2: in bullpen, the White Sox are twenty second, so there
55:59
Speaker 2: is a bull pen edge still for the Cubs here.
56:02
Speaker 2: Cubs have the better offense, the rank fifth, but the
56:04
Speaker 2: White Sox are up to ninth. Believe it or not,
56:08
Speaker 2: this White Sox team murc COMI man, the White Sicks
56:11
Speaker 2: have been hitting Edward Cabrera might be able to slow
56:14
Speaker 2: that thing down. Though Cabrera is pitching for the Cubs here.
56:17
Speaker 2: He's been pretty good, except that his whip is too
56:20
Speaker 2: high though three point eight to eighty RA one point
56:23
Speaker 2: three to two whip. He's been worse on the road
56:26
Speaker 2: though four point four to one ROADYRA so far. His
56:29
Speaker 2: last outing at Texas A little bit concerning that he
56:33
Speaker 2: gave up two of them runs in Texas five runs
56:36
Speaker 2: allowed there, because that's a very pitcher friendly ballpark. But
56:39
Speaker 2: he had six strikeouts and one walk in that outing,
56:41
Speaker 2: so his command was still good. Over his last few starts.
56:45
Speaker 2: His command has actually been excellent. He's got twenty six
56:48
Speaker 2: strikeouts and four walks over his last four outings, So
56:51
Speaker 2: even though that Texas start wasn't great, I think he
56:54
Speaker 2: is still in good form right now. Overall, forty three
56:57
Speaker 2: to fifteen strike out walk ratio. Again, you'd like to
56:59
Speaker 2: see those walk go down. Usually his strike got raid
57:02
Speaker 2: I think is a little bit higher than that forty
57:04
Speaker 2: six and a third innings forty six hits allowed. But yeah,
57:07
Speaker 2: his last four starts, his strikeout walk ratio has been
57:11
Speaker 2: really good. So he is in good form right now.
57:14
Speaker 2: Granted he was facing some pretty weak offense. Is a
57:16
Speaker 2: low I'm still not ready to say the White Sox
57:19
Speaker 2: are this league elite offense, though, and they really haven't
57:22
Speaker 2: seen much of Cabrera because he's in the National League
57:24
Speaker 2: and that's where he's been for his whole career, mostly
57:27
Speaker 2: with the Irelands. White Socks only have seven at bats
57:32
Speaker 2: against him, three hitters of face and in they're zero
57:34
Speaker 2: for seven with a strikeout in a walk against so
57:37
Speaker 2: so I do think Cabrera can do well here, and
57:40
Speaker 2: I think he has the match up edge over Sean Burke,
57:43
Speaker 2: even though Burke is pitching well for the White Sox
57:45
Speaker 2: this year three point six eighty RA and one point
57:48
Speaker 2: zero nine whip. This White Sox pitching rotation is not
57:52
Speaker 2: too bad right now, you know, considering that he's in there.
57:55
Speaker 2: If Shane Smith actually comes back, it starts pitching better again.
57:59
Speaker 2: Schultz might actually be decent. I don't know, man, but
58:02
Speaker 2: Burke has actually probably been their best starter. He hasn't
58:05
Speaker 2: been as good at home though, four point one eight
58:07
Speaker 2: era at home. Didn't pitch well in his last outing
58:10
Speaker 2: at home against Seattle, not a great sign. Did he
58:13
Speaker 2: give up six earned runs in that game in four
58:16
Speaker 2: and a third, had four strikeouts, two walks. It's a
58:20
Speaker 2: little concerning, but he's only a lot more than two
58:24
Speaker 2: earned runs twice this season, both those games at home, though,
58:29
Speaker 2: so his two worst starts have come at home, so
58:31
Speaker 2: he is more worrisome at home. His overall numbers look
58:34
Speaker 2: pretty good. Thirty six strikeouts, ten walks, thirty eight hits
58:37
Speaker 2: a lot in forty four innings. Not a high strikeout rate,
58:39
Speaker 2: but all the rest of the numbers do look pretty good.
58:42
Speaker 2: He's had command. He hasn't been that hittable, you know,
58:45
Speaker 2: but the Cubs are a tough task, and they have
58:49
Speaker 2: hit him well in the past, well decently in forty
58:53
Speaker 2: one at bats to sixty eight average seven to seventy
58:55
Speaker 2: two OPS, so the OPS is fairly high. So they've
58:59
Speaker 2: hit him for a lot of extra base hits. They
59:00
Speaker 2: have fourteen strikeouts four walks against them, but the extra
59:04
Speaker 2: base hits have gotten to him a little bit still, though,
59:09
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. I think I do lean
59:11
Speaker 2: to the Cubs slightly here. The Cubs are obviously favored
59:15
Speaker 2: though there minus one forty two somewhere in that range.
59:18
Speaker 2: Here they look like they're getting the money and the
59:21
Speaker 2: public attention, sixty percent of tickets, sixty two percent of
59:25
Speaker 2: the cash on the Cubs, you know. I mean, it
59:29
Speaker 2: is a little bit of a price to lay, though,
59:31
Speaker 2: and it is possible that both pitchers do pitch well here,
59:35
Speaker 2: So you know, I'm gonna slightly lean to the Cubs here,
59:38
Speaker 2: but I think it is a big series of the
59:39
Speaker 2: White Sox. Burke, I mean, his numbers against the Cubs
59:42
Speaker 2: aren't awful, and most of those numbers were accumulated when
59:46
Speaker 2: Burke wasn't as good as he is this year, you
59:47
Speaker 2: know what I mean. Burke has been better this year.
59:50
Speaker 2: It is concerning, though, that he's not as good at home,
59:52
Speaker 2: so that worries me. Otherwise, I could definitely see some
59:56
Speaker 2: arguments for the under in the first five. I would
59:59
Speaker 2: not go full game under here because the White Sox
1:00:01
Speaker 2: bullpen is just not trustworthy enough. But first five under,
1:00:05
Speaker 2: I could see some arguments for it, that this could
1:00:07
Speaker 2: be a pitching duel here. But I worry a little bit,
1:00:10
Speaker 2: you know, Burke. I think both pitchers actually don't have
1:00:14
Speaker 2: good home road splits for it. So I don't love
1:00:16
Speaker 2: that Burke is not that good at home and his
1:00:18
Speaker 2: last start wasn't good. So I don't know if that's
1:00:20
Speaker 2: gonna mean that he's trending in the wrong direction right now.
1:00:24
Speaker 2: That he's going out of form right now remains to
1:00:27
Speaker 2: be seen. So I'm not gonna play the game. Texas
1:00:32
Speaker 2: at Houston. Not an injur league rivalry, but a rivalry,
1:00:35
Speaker 2: a geographic rivalry, a divisional rivalry. Houston's been playing bad.
1:00:40
Speaker 2: I mean, They're pitching is probably the worst in baseball.
1:00:44
Speaker 2: They're awful, dude, pitching wise. They've lost five of their
1:00:47
Speaker 2: last six games. They are staying at home here. I
1:00:50
Speaker 2: believe they played yesterday Yeah, they lost to Seattle again yesterday,
1:00:54
Speaker 2: Texas coming in with a day off. I believe Texas
1:00:58
Speaker 2: played at home against Arizon on They've won four of
1:01:01
Speaker 2: the last five games. Texas is staying in the state
1:01:04
Speaker 2: of Texas and have a day off, So Texas does
1:01:06
Speaker 2: have an advantage here in that they do have rest
1:01:09
Speaker 2: and they're not really traveling that far even though Houston
1:01:12
Speaker 2: is staying at home. Houston, the fact that they have
1:01:15
Speaker 2: a rest disadvantage and their bullpen is terrible is not good.
1:01:18
Speaker 2: Although they only use Bolton out of the bullpen yesterday,
1:01:21
Speaker 2: so their bullpen is rested, but their bullpen is still horrible,
1:01:26
Speaker 2: worst in baseball thirtieth. They haven't moved out of that
1:01:29
Speaker 2: spot basically all year, really really bad. Texas has a
1:01:33
Speaker 2: very good bullpen. They're eighth right now, but they're one
1:01:35
Speaker 2: of the best eras. Yeah, there's a huge bullpen advantage
1:01:39
Speaker 2: to Texas here. Houston is fourth in offense, though in
1:01:42
Speaker 2: Texas is twenty sixth, so Houston is the better offense.
1:01:48
Speaker 2: Jack Lighter is going to get the start for Texas here.
1:01:50
Speaker 2: He's been mediocre ish four point eight five ERA one
1:01:55
Speaker 2: point four to three. Whip those numbers generally, I would
1:01:57
Speaker 2: say those numbers are bad, but when you dig into
1:01:59
Speaker 2: like his kind of underlying numbers, he hasn't been quite
1:02:02
Speaker 2: that bad. He's been bad on the road, though he
1:02:04
Speaker 2: pitches well at home in that pitcher friendly environment and
1:02:07
Speaker 2: on the road six point one four era, so I
1:02:10
Speaker 2: would not want to back him on the road. Really.
1:02:12
Speaker 2: He walked five guys in his last down, even though
1:02:15
Speaker 2: he actually shut out the Cubs for four and two
1:02:17
Speaker 2: thirds innings, but he didn't go deep into the game
1:02:19
Speaker 2: through way too many pitches, and he walked five guys.
1:02:22
Speaker 2: That's concerning. Although he's had a high strikeout rate recently
1:02:26
Speaker 2: sixteen strikeouts over his last eleven and a third innings,
1:02:30
Speaker 2: but he's given up too many runs, you know, too
1:02:33
Speaker 2: many hits. I don't know. Man. Overall, forty nine to
1:02:37
Speaker 2: eighteen strike out walk Razio this season. That's tolerable. That's
1:02:41
Speaker 2: not too bad. Forty three hits out of forty two
1:02:44
Speaker 2: and two thirds innings. It's a few too many walks,
1:02:46
Speaker 2: a few too many hits, but it's really not that bad.
1:02:49
Speaker 2: So overall, I don't think Lighter is that bad, but
1:02:52
Speaker 2: I don't like him on the road. You know, his
1:02:55
Speaker 2: numbers is still not great. Houston might be able to
1:02:59
Speaker 2: hit him here. Houston has seen him before, but Houston
1:03:01
Speaker 2: hasn't done well against him though. Thirty four at bats
1:03:04
Speaker 2: nine to seven strike a walk ratio is way too
1:03:06
Speaker 2: many walks, of course, but a one forty seven batting
1:03:09
Speaker 2: average five to twenty eight ops Lighter has kind of
1:03:13
Speaker 2: stifled Houston. So Lighter actually does have a decent match
1:03:16
Speaker 2: up here against them, and he will be opposed by
1:03:19
Speaker 2: Spencer Arraghetty, who has some of the best hair out there.
1:03:24
Speaker 2: I'll give him that. Raghetty has a really nice one
1:03:27
Speaker 2: point eight eight e R, but his one point three
1:03:30
Speaker 2: to three whip tells you this era should be around four. Dude, Like,
1:03:34
Speaker 2: don't buy into that era. You can't put that many
1:03:36
Speaker 2: guys on base and have an era that low, Like,
1:03:39
Speaker 2: you can't sustain it, you know what I mean. Raghetty's
1:03:42
Speaker 2: been good at home though one point three to eight
1:03:44
Speaker 2: home era, hasn't allowed one of the two hour runs
1:03:48
Speaker 2: in any of his outings, and even though he pitches
1:03:50
Speaker 2: for Houston, who has a horrible bull bend, other offenses
1:03:55
Speaker 2: backed him up fairly decently. They've won four of his
1:03:57
Speaker 2: five outings. But his walks are definitely an issue. Man,
1:04:01
Speaker 2: thirty strike, got seventeen walks in twenty eight to two Thursday,
1:04:05
Speaker 2: and he's at his way. Too many walks and twenty
1:04:07
Speaker 2: one hits allowed. So yeah, he's got to get that
1:04:09
Speaker 2: walk number down. He's walked three or more in all
1:04:12
Speaker 2: but one outing. That's not good. So even though he's
1:04:15
Speaker 2: been very difficult to hit, he's definitely got good stuff.
1:04:18
Speaker 2: He could strike guys out. He's gotta stop walking people.
1:04:22
Speaker 2: As numbers against Texas are not good, although it's a
1:04:24
Speaker 2: very small seven at bat sample size. They got two hits,
1:04:28
Speaker 2: one is a home run from Danny Jansen, one walk
1:04:31
Speaker 2: or one strike, got three walks, so they have a
1:04:33
Speaker 2: two eighty six average against him, twelve fourteen ops against him,
1:04:38
Speaker 2: So he might actually get hit here. I don't know, man.
1:04:43
Speaker 2: You know, Texas certainly has the bullpen edge. The money
1:04:46
Speaker 2: looks like it's indicating towards Texas. We got seventy seven
1:04:49
Speaker 2: percent of ticket, sixty three percent of the cash on Houston.
1:04:54
Speaker 2: Houston's right around a pick them price and around minus
1:04:57
Speaker 2: one ten. The money is fading them. I just I
1:05:01
Speaker 2: don't like lighter on the road, man. I could see
1:05:02
Speaker 2: the argument for it. Argetti is going to regress a
1:05:05
Speaker 2: little bit, and Lighter is probably a little bit better
1:05:08
Speaker 2: than his numbers. Look, you know, I like Texas' bullpen,
1:05:11
Speaker 2: of course, a lot better. So there is that argument
1:05:15
Speaker 2: to be made. If you're gonna go Texas here, you
1:05:16
Speaker 2: definitely want to go full game and take advantage of
1:05:19
Speaker 2: Texas bullpen. I probably do actually agree with that and
1:05:24
Speaker 2: lean that way, but it's definitely not a strong opinion
1:05:26
Speaker 2: from me. You know, I I don't have a good
1:05:30
Speaker 2: read on the game because I could see Lighter pitching
1:05:32
Speaker 2: well or I could see him not pitching well. Really
1:05:34
Speaker 2: difficult to figure out. And by the way, I'm gonna
1:05:36
Speaker 2: take a break, come back finish the rest of this.
1:05:38
Speaker 2: I have one more play before I do that. Detroit
1:05:41
Speaker 2: has announced a pitching change. Detroit is now gonna be
1:05:44
Speaker 2: going with Hanniffee. What is his name, Brendan Hannafee. I
1:05:50
Speaker 2: forget what that just sounds very irish to me. Brendan Hannafee,
1:05:54
Speaker 2: I don't know whatever his name is. He's gonna be
1:05:57
Speaker 2: the opener for Detroit here, so he might be pitching
1:06:01
Speaker 2: in front of Madden. It still might be Madden coming
1:06:03
Speaker 2: in after Handifee. You know what I mean, Handify, it
1:06:06
Speaker 2: might go one inning and then you're gonna still get
1:06:08
Speaker 2: Madden after that. But what I forgot to mention was,
1:06:10
Speaker 2: because we've seen that Madden has not actually made the
1:06:14
Speaker 2: start in his other appearances, I was gonna say, if
1:06:17
Speaker 2: you want to play this game, you should an action bet,
1:06:21
Speaker 2: just so if Detroit announced an opener in front of Madden,
1:06:26
Speaker 2: it would still count, and you're still basically assuming that
1:06:30
Speaker 2: Madden is still gonna give you like four or five
1:06:32
Speaker 2: innings in the game, you know what I mean. Like
1:06:33
Speaker 2: putting an opener in front of him doesn't change the
1:06:35
Speaker 2: handicap that much because he's not Brian Beao, who becomes
1:06:39
Speaker 2: a completely different pitcher when he's not the starter and
1:06:42
Speaker 2: he he starts pitching in the second inning. But anyway, yeah,
1:06:46
Speaker 2: everything I said about that handicap still pretty much applies though.
1:06:50
Speaker 2: But it's just you know, this is the way you
1:06:51
Speaker 2: got to attack baseball, especially modern baseball. That is the
1:06:56
Speaker 2: reason that you would want to go with an action
1:06:58
Speaker 2: bet in baseball instead of what the normal bet is.
1:07:01
Speaker 2: Is the normal bet that you make in baseball, I
1:07:04
Speaker 2: think the default is that the list is certain pitchers
1:07:07
Speaker 2: must start, and usually you do want that to be
1:07:09
Speaker 2: the case, because if you have a game where you know,
1:07:12
Speaker 2: say you have Scooball pitching and that's like a huge
1:07:15
Speaker 2: part of your handicap, you don't want Detroit to announce,
1:07:17
Speaker 2: oh yeah, he's actually not pitching. Obviously, that completely changes
1:07:21
Speaker 2: the handicap. So you you definitely do not want your
1:07:24
Speaker 2: bet to actually happen if that's the case. So that's
1:07:27
Speaker 2: why you do that. But in a case like this
1:07:30
Speaker 2: where you know that it's gonna be mad and probably
1:07:32
Speaker 2: giving you five innings in that game, except that it
1:07:34
Speaker 2: might be behind an opener that goes one inning in
1:07:37
Speaker 2: front of him, and you don't know if it's going
1:07:38
Speaker 2: to be the opener or not. That's the reason to play,
1:07:41
Speaker 2: to make an action bet there, or you know, in
1:07:44
Speaker 2: this undecided matchup here, if you think you really have
1:07:46
Speaker 2: some sort of edge that you're keying on here, Oh,
1:07:49
Speaker 2: Joe Ryan's gonna be able to beat whoever Milwaukee's putting
1:07:51
Speaker 2: out there, you know what I mean? Like, then okay,
1:07:54
Speaker 2: that would make sense. Then you would make an action
1:07:56
Speaker 2: bet there as well. I think the books might actually
1:07:59
Speaker 2: allow you to do. Joe Ryan must start the game,
1:08:03
Speaker 2: but you don't care who starts the other side of it,
1:08:05
Speaker 2: you know. I think you're actually allowed to do that too.
1:08:08
Speaker 2: Baseball is very, very weird, man. All Right, I'm gonna
1:08:10
Speaker 2: be right back and then finishing this off. All right,
1:09:26
Speaker 2: let's zoom back in here. Oops. All right. Our next
1:09:31
Speaker 2: game up is Kansas City at Saint Louis the Battle
1:09:34
Speaker 2: of Missouri. Here. Saint Louis is returning over from a
1:09:40
Speaker 2: road trip. They went out to the Pacific Coast, San
1:09:42
Speaker 2: Diego and the A's so it's not a good spot.
1:09:45
Speaker 2: They're traveling across multiple time zones. They're returning home. As
1:09:49
Speaker 2: I always talk about negative spot. You have to get
1:09:51
Speaker 2: back to home life. You got stuff to do. They
1:09:53
Speaker 2: actually played yesterday too, so they have no days off.
1:09:56
Speaker 2: Both teams actually did play yesterday. But the situation, it's
1:10:00
Speaker 2: better for Kansas City because they're staying in the area.
1:10:03
Speaker 2: They're only coming in from Chicago, much much easier travel
1:10:06
Speaker 2: spot for them. They've lost four games in a row,
1:10:09
Speaker 2: so this could be a bounce back spot for Kansas
1:10:11
Speaker 2: City as well. So the situation heavily favors Kansas City
1:10:15
Speaker 2: here in my opinion. So then I started looking at
1:10:18
Speaker 2: this thinking I'm gonna play Kansas City here. The more
1:10:20
Speaker 2: I looked into it, I you know, the matchup numbers
1:10:23
Speaker 2: just don't really. The matchup numbers keep me away from it. Man.
1:10:27
Speaker 2: Now both bullpens are bad. Kansas City used three relief
1:10:29
Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Saint Louis used four. I think that's fine
1:10:34
Speaker 2: if you're looking at Kansas City here. Even though the
1:10:36
Speaker 2: twenty sixth ranked bullpen, Saint Louis is not better really
1:10:40
Speaker 2: the ranked twenty third, and their ERA is higher, so
1:10:42
Speaker 2: it's hard to gauge which one is even better. Hitting wise,
1:10:47
Speaker 2: Kansas City has moved up to fourteenth, Saint Louis is twelfth,
1:10:51
Speaker 2: So yeah, Saint Louis has hit a little bit better
1:10:53
Speaker 2: than Kansas City. Michael Waka like I looked at this
1:10:56
Speaker 2: starting pitching, I'm like, yeah, I definitely like Walka over May.
1:10:59
Speaker 2: But then I looked into this a little bit more
1:11:01
Speaker 2: and I just can't do it. Man. Even though Walker
1:11:03
Speaker 2: has been good for the Royals two point sixty three
1:11:06
Speaker 2: ERA point nine nine whip, he has the exact same
1:11:09
Speaker 2: home in road Ra, so the splits are very insignificant.
1:11:13
Speaker 2: He's pitched really well this month. To seven inning outings
1:11:17
Speaker 2: only along two combined runs, nine strikeouts, three walks. He
1:11:20
Speaker 2: doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but he's definitely
1:11:22
Speaker 2: in good form right now. He's got overall forty two strikeouts,
1:11:27
Speaker 2: seventeen walks only thirty four hits a lot in fifty
1:11:30
Speaker 2: one and a third innings. So even though he doesn't
1:11:32
Speaker 2: throw hard, he's still very difficult to hit. Yeah, I
1:11:37
Speaker 2: mean he's an interesting pitcher man. I mean, he's been
1:11:40
Speaker 2: around for forever and he's been an effective pitcher. So,
1:11:45
Speaker 2: but his numbers against Saint Louis is where I start
1:11:47
Speaker 2: losing this thing. He does not have good numbers against
1:11:50
Speaker 2: Saint Louis and thirty two at bats three twelve batting average,
1:11:54
Speaker 2: eight h two ops. I know it's not a huge sample,
1:11:57
Speaker 2: but it's big enough that it does worry. Maybe strikeouts,
1:12:00
Speaker 2: one walk. So I was looking at Kansas City pretty heavily.
1:12:04
Speaker 2: I think Kansas City might have the best situation out
1:12:07
Speaker 2: of any of the situational setups today. I think the
1:12:10
Speaker 2: situational edge that Kansas City has is very very good,
1:12:14
Speaker 2: but the starting pitching matchup is actually keeping me off
1:12:17
Speaker 2: of the game. Dustin May, I mean he's pitching for
1:12:21
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. His numbers don't look good this year. Four
1:12:23
Speaker 2: point eight five R, one point four to three WHIP. Basically,
1:12:27
Speaker 2: he hasn't been good since like his injuried surgery, except
1:12:32
Speaker 2: this season. He had two bad starts to start the season.
1:12:35
Speaker 2: He's actually been good since then, so that's what also
1:12:39
Speaker 2: concerns me about this. He's also better at home here
1:12:42
Speaker 2: four point five RA. It's easier to pitch in Saint
1:12:46
Speaker 2: Louis's stadium, But look at what he's done since his
1:12:48
Speaker 2: first two starts where he got hammered by Tampa Bay
1:12:51
Speaker 2: and Detroit. He pitched against the Red Sox and then
1:12:53
Speaker 2: fixed everything, and since then he's allowed no more than
1:12:56
Speaker 2: three or runs in any outing, and that was an
1:12:58
Speaker 2: outing against the Dodger. So he's good basically since early April.
1:13:03
Speaker 2: Uh So, I don't really want to fade May here.
1:13:05
Speaker 2: He's got a thirty two to eleven strike out walk ratio.
1:13:08
Speaker 2: That's not bad. Not a high strikeout rate though, so
1:13:12
Speaker 2: it does look like his strikeout stuff is not there.
1:13:15
Speaker 2: And he's allowed fifty hits and forty two and two
1:13:17
Speaker 2: thirds innings, but a lot of that happened in those
1:13:20
Speaker 2: first two starts that were really bad. He's been much
1:13:23
Speaker 2: much better since then, so May is in much better form.
1:13:27
Speaker 2: I believe he has decent numbers against the Royals as well.
1:13:30
Speaker 2: They have twenty six at bats against. I'm not a
1:13:32
Speaker 2: huge stamp, but actually his numbers are not good. My
1:13:35
Speaker 2: mistake to sixty nine batting average, eight twenty one ops allowed.
1:13:39
Speaker 2: So May is kind of fadeable here. But I worry
1:13:42
Speaker 2: about Waka's numbers, man, So I'm gonna lean Kansas City.
1:13:45
Speaker 2: I think the situation is pretty strong, but the money's
1:13:48
Speaker 2: actually disagreeing. Fifty percent of tickets fifty one percent of
1:13:51
Speaker 2: the cash on Kansas City. That worries me. It's basically
1:13:54
Speaker 2: a pick them price here, pick the winner price. Yeah.
1:14:00
Speaker 2: I mean the other thing about Saint Louis is I
1:14:01
Speaker 2: still don't think they're as good as their record looks,
1:14:04
Speaker 2: you know. So yes, the situation heavily favors Kansas City.
1:14:09
Speaker 2: I think generally I do like Walkap better than May.
1:14:12
Speaker 2: I just don't like Waka's matchup numbers against Saint Louis,
1:14:15
Speaker 2: and that's just why I'm leaving it off the card here.
1:14:17
Speaker 2: But I like Kansas City in that game all right,
1:14:21
Speaker 2: Arizona at Colorado. Colorado is returning home from a road
1:14:25
Speaker 2: trip as well. They're coming home from Pennsylvania. They just
1:14:28
Speaker 2: played in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, So not a great spot
1:14:32
Speaker 2: returning home from the road trip. Although it is a
1:14:34
Speaker 2: divisional matchup here in this case, which maybe they won't
1:14:37
Speaker 2: overlook that. Arizona, this sets up better for them because
1:14:41
Speaker 2: they're in the middle of a road trip and they're
1:14:42
Speaker 2: coming in from Texas. But the one bad thing about
1:14:46
Speaker 2: that is you're going from a very picture friendly stadium
1:14:49
Speaker 2: in Arlington, although both the last two games both went
1:14:52
Speaker 2: over even though that park has had like a ridiculous
1:14:55
Speaker 2: amount of unders happened in that game in that park.
1:15:00
Speaker 2: Arizona is going from a very pitcher friendly park now
1:15:03
Speaker 2: to a very hitter friendly park in corus Field, So
1:15:06
Speaker 2: making that transition could hurt your pitching a little bit.
1:15:09
Speaker 2: So that is worrisome as far as Arizona. Their bullpen
1:15:14
Speaker 2: didn't use anybody. I think Arizona was off yesterday actually,
1:15:17
Speaker 2: so Arizona has a rest edge. They were off yesterday
1:15:21
Speaker 2: and Colorado's returning home from a road trip, which can
1:15:23
Speaker 2: lead to distractions. Like I said, Colorado's four guys out
1:15:27
Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday, so I will give Arizona a
1:15:29
Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. They're ranked number two in bullpen whip.
1:15:33
Speaker 2: Even though the ERA is still in the fours. I
1:15:35
Speaker 2: still don't like their bullpen much, but I will give
1:15:38
Speaker 2: them an advantage here. The Rockies are seventeenth. Their ERA
1:15:42
Speaker 2: is actually right around the same as Arizona's, but the
1:15:46
Speaker 2: Rockies also way more unrested, So I will give Arizona
1:15:49
Speaker 2: a bullpen edge here. Rockies have actually been the better
1:15:52
Speaker 2: hitting team. They're ranked tenth in offense and the d
1:15:55
Speaker 2: Backs are twenty fourth. Colorado is better at hitting at home. Well,
1:16:00
Speaker 2: they're gonna go up against Merril Kelly. And I don't
1:16:03
Speaker 2: know what's wrong with Merril Kelly right now. Man. I
1:16:06
Speaker 2: don't know if maybe he's just fallen off a cliff
1:16:08
Speaker 2: at thirty seven and he's gonna have to retire. I
1:16:11
Speaker 2: have no idea, because he was pretty decent with the
1:16:13
Speaker 2: Rangers last year. He's back with the Diamondbacks and he
1:16:16
Speaker 2: has been very bad. Seven point six two ERA, one
1:16:20
Speaker 2: point nine to two whip. This is not good. He's
1:16:22
Speaker 2: been worse on the road as well. Seven point nine
1:16:25
Speaker 2: to eight roadyra even though the Arizona Ballpark is pretty
1:16:29
Speaker 2: hit or friendly, so his course field here. Kelly was
1:16:32
Speaker 2: pretty good in his last outing, though, but it was
1:16:34
Speaker 2: against the Mets. We know the Mets offense has had
1:16:37
Speaker 2: major struggles this year. He three hit one run them
1:16:40
Speaker 2: through seven innings. That's good, But he did walk three guys.
1:16:44
Speaker 2: That's not good. You know. Is that a sign that
1:16:47
Speaker 2: he's finally coming around and coming into form. It might
1:16:50
Speaker 2: be because he started the season on a delay because
1:16:53
Speaker 2: he was injured. He pitched alright in his first outing
1:16:57
Speaker 2: kind of, and then he was really bad for three
1:16:59
Speaker 2: stars in a row against the White Sox, the Brewers,
1:17:02
Speaker 2: and the Cubs. You know, not the easiest lineups to face.
1:17:05
Speaker 2: So I don't know what we're gonna get out of
1:17:07
Speaker 2: Kelly here man. His overall numbers is still very concerning.
1:17:10
Speaker 2: Twenty to eighteen strike a walk ratio. I mean, you
1:17:12
Speaker 2: cannot do that and bitch effectively. Thirty two hits a
1:17:16
Speaker 2: lot in twenty six innings. Yeah, I mean, I can't
1:17:20
Speaker 2: jump on board, even though it is a bad spot
1:17:22
Speaker 2: for Colorado. I can't come in and play play on
1:17:24
Speaker 2: Kelly here right now. I can't do it. Whoops, I'm
1:17:28
Speaker 2: looking at his numbers against his own team. That's not
1:17:30
Speaker 2: what I want. How is he gonna do with VP?
1:17:33
Speaker 2: You know? Against Colorado he's got okay numbers and seventy
1:17:39
Speaker 2: two at bats twenty six to three strike a walk
1:17:41
Speaker 2: ratio is really good, two sixty four batting average allowed
1:17:44
Speaker 2: seven to thirty eight ops. Those are pretty mediocre numbers there. Yeah,
1:17:49
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just been so bad this year. I
1:17:51
Speaker 2: just can't get on board with it. Kyle Freeland is
1:17:54
Speaker 2: pitching for the Rockies. He's starting to pitch pretty poorly
1:17:57
Speaker 2: as well. He's got a six ERA now one point
1:17:59
Speaker 2: four or seven whip that's not good. He's actually been
1:18:02
Speaker 2: a little bit better at home all those own roads,
1:18:04
Speaker 2: but's are pretty insignificant. So yeah, he's been really really
1:18:08
Speaker 2: bad in his last two starts. Really, his last three
1:18:12
Speaker 2: haven't gone that well. He was pitching pretty well for
1:18:14
Speaker 2: a bit, but his last couple starts really really bad.
1:18:17
Speaker 2: He's got an eleven point five to seventy r this month,
1:18:21
Speaker 2: eighteen hits aloud in nine to third innings and five
1:18:24
Speaker 2: home runs allowed, and one of those two starts was
1:18:27
Speaker 2: on the road. That's bad, dude, Like he is definitely
1:18:30
Speaker 2: starting to give it up big time here, although he
1:18:32
Speaker 2: has an eleven to three strike out walk ratio with
1:18:35
Speaker 2: that span, so his strikeout rate is still good. His
1:18:38
Speaker 2: command numbers are still good twenty eight to eight strike
1:18:41
Speaker 2: out walk ratio over the course of the season. Thirty
1:18:43
Speaker 2: six hits a lout in thirty innings is bad, though,
1:18:46
Speaker 2: and he's now allowed seven home runs. But yeah, he's
1:18:48
Speaker 2: been really not doing well over his last couple outings.
1:18:51
Speaker 2: Granted the one at home was against the Braves, but
1:18:55
Speaker 2: you know, he wasn't good on the road against Philly either. Yeah,
1:18:59
Speaker 2: I wouldn't trust him at all the way that he's
1:19:01
Speaker 2: pitching right now. His numbers against Arizona are really bad
1:19:05
Speaker 2: as well. In one hundred two at bats, fourteen strikeouts,
1:19:07
Speaker 2: fifteen walks, more walks than strikeouts. That's not gonna cut
1:19:11
Speaker 2: it anywhere. Three forty three batting average allowed, one thousand
1:19:15
Speaker 2: and forty five ohps. That's not good. All of that,
1:19:21
Speaker 2: you know, being taken into account, I think I will
1:19:23
Speaker 2: lean Arizona here. The money's coming in in Colorado. There's
1:19:27
Speaker 2: no way I would do that in a return home spot,
1:19:29
Speaker 2: and Arizona is rested better situation. I do actually think Kelly.
1:19:34
Speaker 2: You can make the argument he's coming into form while
1:19:37
Speaker 2: Freeland is going out of form. And Kelly does still
1:19:40
Speaker 2: have the better matchup numbers here, and I think has
1:19:43
Speaker 2: had the better career, you know, I mean he definitely has.
1:19:47
Speaker 2: He's much older, though he's got a excuse. Arizona's around
1:19:51
Speaker 2: minus one twenty here. Money is coming into Colorado though,
1:19:54
Speaker 2: seventy two percent of tickets on Arizona, seventy two percent
1:19:56
Speaker 2: of the cash on Colorado. Do with that information what
1:19:59
Speaker 2: you want. The total in this game is very high
1:20:02
Speaker 2: at eleven and a half. It's probably justified. I mean,
1:20:05
Speaker 2: you got two pitchers that really haven't done well this season.
1:20:09
Speaker 2: The money is coming in towards the over. I don't
1:20:12
Speaker 2: really trust the two bullpens here. I don't think I
1:20:15
Speaker 2: necessarily want to play an over here in Arizona. You
1:20:18
Speaker 2: know they're hitting, you know, having a day of rest
1:20:21
Speaker 2: that might cool them off a little bit. On Arizona's
1:20:24
Speaker 2: bullpen could actually maybe perform okay here. So I'm not
1:20:28
Speaker 2: gonna do anything with the total. I'd lean slightly towards
1:20:30
Speaker 2: Arizona though, La La or Dodgers at Anaheim Anaheim is
1:20:38
Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip. They lost five out
1:20:41
Speaker 2: of six games on the road trip. They just got
1:20:43
Speaker 2: swept by Cleveland. They had yesterday off, so Anaheim does
1:20:47
Speaker 2: have a day of rest and the Dodgers do not.
1:20:49
Speaker 2: The Dodgers played yesterday, but the Dodgers were at home
1:20:52
Speaker 2: and they're only going from LA to Anaheim. So not
1:20:55
Speaker 2: a bad travel spot for the Dodgers. Here the return
1:20:58
Speaker 2: home spot for Anaheim coming in from Cleveland. They're traveling
1:21:02
Speaker 2: multiple times. Don't see a returning home. I mean, you're
1:21:05
Speaker 2: not gonna overlook the Dodgers like that will help alleviate
1:21:08
Speaker 2: the distraction situation, but it is still a distraction situation
1:21:12
Speaker 2: returning home from the road, you know what I mean.
1:21:14
Speaker 2: It's just not the worst possible situation, or yeah, the
1:21:17
Speaker 2: worst possible situation, but it's not good. I'm still not
1:21:20
Speaker 2: gonna want to play on a team returning home like that.
1:21:23
Speaker 2: The Dodgers are in the better spot, Like I said,
1:21:25
Speaker 2: they were just at home against San Francisco. They won
1:21:28
Speaker 2: the last two games, ending of four game losing streak.
1:21:30
Speaker 2: They got a little bit of momentum coming into this one.
1:21:34
Speaker 2: Possible they overlook Anaheim, though, because Anaheim hasn't played well,
1:21:37
Speaker 2: so I don't know if that's gonna be the case
1:21:39
Speaker 2: or not. Dodgers are the way better team like basically
1:21:42
Speaker 2: all around, though, even though Anaheim does have a rested bullpen.
1:21:46
Speaker 2: Dodgers use three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Anaheim's
1:21:49
Speaker 2: bullpen is bad. They're ranked twenty seventh. They have one
1:21:52
Speaker 2: of the worst eras as well. The Dodgers bullpen's been
1:21:55
Speaker 2: pretty strong. They're at fourth, so there is a bullpen
1:21:58
Speaker 2: edge for the Dodgers even though they use some guys yesterday.
1:22:01
Speaker 2: Dodgers are ranked two offensively right now. Anaheim is sixteenth.
1:22:06
Speaker 2: Dodgers do have the better offense, even though they've been
1:22:09
Speaker 2: not playing Otani in the lineup every day though, trying
1:22:12
Speaker 2: to focus on his pitching, and he's been a dominant pitcher.
1:22:15
Speaker 2: It's crazy this game here, Blake Snell was gonna be pitching.
1:22:21
Speaker 2: I know his numbers look really bad, a twelve VRA
1:22:24
Speaker 2: two point sixty seven whip, but the same thing happened
1:22:27
Speaker 2: last year. Man, We've seen this over and over again.
1:22:30
Speaker 2: That's only he only made one start and it was
1:22:32
Speaker 2: against the Braves. We know the Braves hit pretty well,
1:22:35
Speaker 2: Snell was still trying to get his footing. It was
1:22:37
Speaker 2: his first start of the season coming back from injury again,
1:22:40
Speaker 2: and he did the same thing last year, like look
1:22:43
Speaker 2: at what he did last year. Well, actually it was
1:22:44
Speaker 2: his second and third starts weren't really that good. One
1:22:47
Speaker 2: of them was against the Braves. By the way, I'm
1:22:49
Speaker 2: at home, so it's almost deja vu. So like last year,
1:22:53
Speaker 2: he struggled a little bit to get back into it.
1:22:55
Speaker 2: Then once he did, he was good for the most part.
1:22:59
Speaker 2: He's still a good pitcher man. He's still not that
1:23:01
Speaker 2: old at thirty three, so obviously I expect him to
1:23:04
Speaker 2: improve off of that first start that was against one
1:23:07
Speaker 2: of the best offenses in baseball, and this game is
1:23:10
Speaker 2: not going to be because it's against Anaheim. His numbers
1:23:13
Speaker 2: against Anaheim are pretty good and forty at bats seventeen
1:23:16
Speaker 2: strike cuts. Nine walks is too many walks. Snell has
1:23:19
Speaker 2: always had issues with walks. Dude, he walks too many guys.
1:23:22
Speaker 2: But he's borderline unhittable, so that's how he gets away
1:23:26
Speaker 2: with it. Like he gets a lot of strike cuts,
1:23:28
Speaker 2: he's extremely difficult to hit. He's a lot of two
1:23:31
Speaker 2: twenty five batting average to Anaheim in a seven to
1:23:35
Speaker 2: seventeen ops, so I do think Snell should do pretty
1:23:38
Speaker 2: well here. Jack Kohanowitz is getting the start for the Angels.
1:23:42
Speaker 2: He's been okay this year. He's been better than he
1:23:45
Speaker 2: has been in the past. Three point nine to seventy RA,
1:23:48
Speaker 2: one point three to five whip though that's getting concerning.
1:23:51
Speaker 2: His whip is going up. He's been good at home though,
1:23:54
Speaker 2: one point five to three ERA at home, so he's
1:23:57
Speaker 2: pitched really well at home this year for the most part.
1:24:01
Speaker 2: His last start is a concern though. He gave up
1:24:04
Speaker 2: six earned runs to Toronto and four innings. It was
1:24:06
Speaker 2: on the road though, had two walks no strikeouts. But
1:24:09
Speaker 2: prior to that he was actually pitching effectively. If you
1:24:12
Speaker 2: take that start out in the first start of the
1:24:14
Speaker 2: season against Houston, he allowed three or fewer earned runs
1:24:18
Speaker 2: and all the rest of his outings his strikeout walk
1:24:20
Speaker 2: ratio really does look bad though. Thirty strikeouts twenty three
1:24:24
Speaker 2: walks in forty five and third innings. That's too many walks.
1:24:27
Speaker 2: He is not a strikeout pitcher, but he's an extreme
1:24:30
Speaker 2: ground ball pitcher. He gets a lot of ground ball outs,
1:24:33
Speaker 2: which is not bad. I mean it. I mean, the
1:24:37
Speaker 2: only thing that could be bad about it is it
1:24:38
Speaker 2: couldn't mask. You know, it couldn't mask like your other deficiencies,
1:24:45
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So that's bad. So you
1:24:46
Speaker 2: have to try to figure out how to handicap him. Accordingly,
1:24:50
Speaker 2: He's allowed thirty eight hits as well, which is not bad.
1:24:53
Speaker 2: So like some guys like David Peterson, I told you
1:24:56
Speaker 2: that his ground ball rate was masking, how bad that
1:24:58
Speaker 2: he was, Like his whip was way too high, as
1:25:00
Speaker 2: walk numbers are way too high, Kolhanowitz at least isn't
1:25:03
Speaker 2: allowing that many hits. So you know, I'm not totally
1:25:07
Speaker 2: ready to bail on him, but he has had a
1:25:09
Speaker 2: bad career, so maybe he is starting to pitch poorly again.
1:25:12
Speaker 2: And he's got to go up against the Dodgers here. Man,
1:25:15
Speaker 2: that's not gonna be easy. His numbers against them are
1:25:17
Speaker 2: not as bad as you would think, but they're not
1:25:19
Speaker 2: that good. In twenty one at bats to eighty six
1:25:22
Speaker 2: batting average, allowed, seven to fifty six oh ps, four
1:25:25
Speaker 2: to three strike at walk ratio. It's not a large
1:25:29
Speaker 2: sample size though, but I think the Dodgers are gonna
1:25:32
Speaker 2: win this game. The problem is they're laying minus to
1:25:35
Speaker 2: forty five, Like, what what are you supposed to do
1:25:38
Speaker 2: about that? Minus two thirty five? Now at a lot
1:25:41
Speaker 2: of spots, you know, some number in that range. The
1:25:44
Speaker 2: money's all coming in an Anaheim. Fifty seven percent of
1:25:47
Speaker 2: tickets on the Dodgers, but ninety five percent of the
1:25:49
Speaker 2: money on Anaheim. The money's backing Anaheim. I don't agree
1:25:53
Speaker 2: with it, though. I wouldn't do it, man. I think
1:25:55
Speaker 2: the Dodgers have the better starting pitcher here, they have
1:25:57
Speaker 2: the better bullpen, they have the better offense. They're staying
1:26:00
Speaker 2: in the area starting a road trip with momentum. Anaheims
1:26:04
Speaker 2: are turning over from a road trip. There just aren't
1:26:06
Speaker 2: that many positives I see for Anaheim here. Man, I
1:26:09
Speaker 2: just don't see it, you know. I don't think i'd
1:26:12
Speaker 2: want to lay the run line with the Dodgers here either, though,
1:26:16
Speaker 2: like the minus one and a half runs on the
1:26:18
Speaker 2: road or whatever it might be. It's an option and
1:26:21
Speaker 2: you get all nine innings of a hitting out of
1:26:23
Speaker 2: the Dodgers if you do do it that way. But
1:26:26
Speaker 2: hot do doo. But no, I don't want to do it.
1:26:29
Speaker 2: The next game up we will have a play though,
1:26:31
Speaker 2: San Diego at Seattle, like just on the surface, I
1:26:33
Speaker 2: looked at this and I immediately you know what I
1:26:36
Speaker 2: was thinking, immediately, yeah, because I was thinking under So, yeah,
1:26:44
Speaker 2: we're gonna have three unders here. That is what we're
1:26:47
Speaker 2: doing here under the seven. I found it that B
1:26:50
Speaker 2: book that I'm having issues with at plus one o four.
1:26:53
Speaker 2: But if you look at other books, you can pretty
1:26:54
Speaker 2: much find this at like even money or at like
1:26:56
Speaker 2: a minus one of four. Something in that range you
1:26:59
Speaker 2: can find at a decent price. Under seven. Don't let
1:27:02
Speaker 2: it get to six and a half. Seven is the
1:27:04
Speaker 2: key number because it breaks the three three tigh. That
1:27:07
Speaker 2: is what we're going with in this one. I like
1:27:11
Speaker 2: numerous things about this. I mean, we're in a pitcher
1:27:13
Speaker 2: friendly ballpark in Seattle. Both these teams have good bullpens.
1:27:17
Speaker 2: Uh Seattle is returning home from a road trip, which
1:27:20
Speaker 2: I think can cool off the offense sometimes, not that
1:27:22
Speaker 2: their offense has even been that good anyway. Neither of
1:27:25
Speaker 2: these offenses have been that good either, So a lot
1:27:27
Speaker 2: of things point towards an under here. UH Seattle returning
1:27:30
Speaker 2: over from a road trip. Don't like the spot generally.
1:27:33
Speaker 2: I mean, again, you can get distracted, like Is San
1:27:36
Speaker 2: Diego really a huge interleague rival of theirs? I don't.
1:27:39
Speaker 2: I don't get that, but anyway, yeah, Seattle could be
1:27:43
Speaker 2: distracted returning home. Although San Diego's played well enough that
1:27:45
Speaker 2: I think they might totally winning their division. That's not
1:27:49
Speaker 2: gonna last. The Dodgers are better than San Diego. But Seattle,
1:27:53
Speaker 2: you know, could be a bit distracted here returning over
1:27:55
Speaker 2: from from the road trip. That's not good. Uh. San
1:27:59
Speaker 2: Diego played yesterday in Milwaukee, so they're traveling from Milwaukee
1:28:04
Speaker 2: out to the West coast, So I think that could
1:28:05
Speaker 2: kind of affect the timing of all the hitting here.
1:28:08
Speaker 2: That both teams are traveling across time zones here, I
1:28:12
Speaker 2: don't think that's great for either team. So even though
1:28:16
Speaker 2: Seattle's is a little bit worse because they're returning home,
1:28:18
Speaker 2: but I think that can affect the hitting in both
1:28:21
Speaker 2: on both teams here. As far as the bullpens, they're
1:28:24
Speaker 2: both good bullpens. Seattle used two guys out of the bullpen,
1:28:27
Speaker 2: and they use any of their better relievers, though San
1:28:29
Speaker 2: Diego didn't really use any of their better relievers either,
1:28:31
Speaker 2: so the bullpen's set up pretty nicely in my opinion
1:28:34
Speaker 2: here all the better arms are pretty much available here.
1:28:37
Speaker 2: San Diego is ranked fifth in bullpen. They're definitely a
1:28:40
Speaker 2: very good bullpen. Seattle's is solid as well. They're at fourteenth,
1:28:44
Speaker 2: but they have one of the best bullpen eras, so
1:28:46
Speaker 2: they are definitely a good bullpen as well. Hitting wise,
1:28:49
Speaker 2: like I said, these teams have really not been very good.
1:28:52
Speaker 2: Seattle's moved up a bit. They're at fourteenth, so their
1:28:55
Speaker 2: offense is improving as kind of expected. San Diego is
1:28:59
Speaker 2: really strung to the plate. They're at twenty eighth, even
1:29:01
Speaker 2: though they do have some talented bats there. But I
1:29:04
Speaker 2: also think the offenses here can kind of help us
1:29:07
Speaker 2: out or excuse I think the pitching can kind of
1:29:09
Speaker 2: help us counter the offenses here. Is when I meant
1:29:12
Speaker 2: to say Randy Vasquez is pitching for the Padres. I
1:29:15
Speaker 2: know we're going back to an under with Vazquez here.
1:29:17
Speaker 2: It didn't work out last time. But he's had a
1:29:19
Speaker 2: pretty decent season three point zero five ERA, one point
1:29:23
Speaker 2: one seven whip. He's been really good on the road
1:29:26
Speaker 2: one point nine to three roady Ira even I don't
1:29:28
Speaker 2: understand why he's been that bad at home though, which
1:29:30
Speaker 2: is a pitcher friendly Park in San Diego, and this
1:29:34
Speaker 2: one is as well. Does that mean he's gonna pitch bad.
1:29:36
Speaker 2: Does he pitch bad in all pitcher friendly parks? I
1:29:39
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't really think so, but I like
1:29:41
Speaker 2: that as Roady Ray is lower, so I think that's
1:29:43
Speaker 2: gonna help you a decent home road splits. He's coming
1:29:46
Speaker 2: off a pretty good outing against Saint Louis, held them
1:29:48
Speaker 2: to one run in five innings, six strikeouts, no walks.
1:29:52
Speaker 2: Three of his last four outings have been pretty good.
1:29:54
Speaker 2: He allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of
1:29:56
Speaker 2: the four, got beat up a little bit by the Cup.
1:30:00
Speaker 2: They're a good offense. Other than that, you know, not bad.
1:30:02
Speaker 2: His overall numbers not bad. Forty two strikeouts, thirteen walks,
1:30:07
Speaker 2: thirty nine hits, a lot of forty four and a
1:30:08
Speaker 2: third innings. He's always been a guy that's walked too
1:30:11
Speaker 2: many guys, but he has gotten that a bit under
1:30:13
Speaker 2: control this year literally. So yeah, he's fitched fairly well
1:30:17
Speaker 2: this year. Man in San Diego. By the way, he's
1:30:19
Speaker 2: actually won all but one of his starts, and that
1:30:21
Speaker 2: was the start where he got no run support. Two
1:30:24
Speaker 2: starts to go at San Francisco, so Yeah, he looks
1:30:27
Speaker 2: like he's in decent form right now San Diego, even
1:30:31
Speaker 2: though they don't hit well, they've won most of his games,
1:30:34
Speaker 2: which might be a decent indicator that maybe you could
1:30:36
Speaker 2: look towards San Diego here as a side as well.
1:30:38
Speaker 2: But I'm not doing that. I'm going under thats because
1:30:41
Speaker 2: I mean his numbers against Seattle. The one concern is
1:30:44
Speaker 2: the ops, but the rest of his numbers, except for
1:30:46
Speaker 2: the walks, are okay. It's a small sample size, twenty
1:30:50
Speaker 2: four at bats he sell him to a two to
1:30:52
Speaker 2: fifty average. Seven to five strike out walk ration is
1:30:54
Speaker 2: not exactly good. Seven ninety six ops is a little concerning,
1:30:59
Speaker 2: but remember a lot of that was when Vazquez was
1:31:02
Speaker 2: a worse pitcher than he is now. So I think
1:31:06
Speaker 2: he actually sets up to do al right. Here. And
1:31:08
Speaker 2: Emerson Hancock is pitching for Seattle. He's been good three
1:31:12
Speaker 2: point two to one ERA and one point zero one WHIP.
1:31:14
Speaker 2: He's been better at home as well, two point seven
1:31:17
Speaker 2: to four home e RA makes sense, Seattle pitcher friendly park.
1:31:20
Speaker 2: He didn't dwell in his last down. He gave up
1:31:22
Speaker 2: five earned runs at the White Sox, but that was
1:31:25
Speaker 2: on the road. He still lasted six innings, had four strikeouts,
1:31:28
Speaker 2: three walks, five hits a lout. He got a little
1:31:30
Speaker 2: bit unlucky to allow five runs in that one. If
1:31:33
Speaker 2: you take that start out, he allowed three or fewer
1:31:35
Speaker 2: earned runs and all of his other starts this season,
1:31:38
Speaker 2: and he has like almost elite numbers this season. A
1:31:41
Speaker 2: fifty to nine strike out walk ratio is insanely good,
1:31:44
Speaker 2: thirty nine hits allout, and forty seven to two thirds innings.
1:31:47
Speaker 2: His only problem is the home runs. He's allowed eight
1:31:49
Speaker 2: home runs, but a lot of them have been on
1:31:52
Speaker 2: the road. The last three of them all came on
1:31:54
Speaker 2: the road. He did have one game where he allowed
1:31:56
Speaker 2: three home runs here at home, but all the rest
1:31:59
Speaker 2: of the home runs actual you have come on the road.
1:32:00
Speaker 2: So maybe that was a little bit of a fluke,
1:32:03
Speaker 2: or he's got to get that under control a little bit,
1:32:05
Speaker 2: but it seems a little flukey to Mean and Hancock
1:32:08
Speaker 2: against San Diego, he's held them to some pretty low numbers.
1:32:13
Speaker 2: They actually have forty five at bats off him, which
1:32:15
Speaker 2: is kind of surprising to me because they're in opposing
1:32:18
Speaker 2: leagues and he hasn't been around for that long. Two
1:32:20
Speaker 2: to twenty two batting average allowed six fifty five ohps
1:32:24
Speaker 2: seven to two strikeout walk ratio. He did actually pitch
1:32:26
Speaker 2: against them earlier this year. Did give up a home
1:32:29
Speaker 2: run in that game at San Diego. Seattle lost, but
1:32:31
Speaker 2: Hancock was good in the game. Six innings, two earned runs,
1:32:35
Speaker 2: four hits, allowed, one walk, six strikeouts. He had a
1:32:38
Speaker 2: good start there, so that's a decent sign as well.
1:32:41
Speaker 2: I don't know Vasquez pitched in that series or not.
1:32:44
Speaker 2: Let me say he did. Vasquez actually didn't do well
1:32:49
Speaker 2: in that game against Seattle. Give up four and runs,
1:32:52
Speaker 2: walked four guys, but he did have six strikeouts. I
1:32:55
Speaker 2: don't know. His strikeout rate was kind of there. The
1:32:58
Speaker 2: walks just caught up to him that game. He's got
1:33:00
Speaker 2: to stop doing that. But that you know, I'm not
1:33:03
Speaker 2: gonna let let that take take me completely away from this.
1:33:06
Speaker 2: The odds makers are telling you all three of our
1:33:09
Speaker 2: totals really except for the Boston Atlanta one being skewed
1:33:12
Speaker 2: a little bit high. I think two of these totals
1:33:16
Speaker 2: are low. At seven seven and a half. The odds
1:33:18
Speaker 2: makers are telling you something with that number. They think
1:33:20
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a lower scoring game, uh, pitching game.
1:33:24
Speaker 2: I agree with it. And we don't even see percentages
1:33:26
Speaker 2: really on this at all right now, so you know
1:33:29
Speaker 2: that's not helping us out with the market read here,
1:33:31
Speaker 2: but Seattle's about the minus one thirty favorite. We're going
1:33:35
Speaker 2: with the under in that game, though, all right, and
1:33:38
Speaker 2: then we have one more game, which is the Battle
1:33:40
Speaker 2: of the Bay. San Francisco and the A's here. Maybe
1:33:43
Speaker 2: there'll be an earthquake during this game, which I think
1:33:46
Speaker 2: happened during the Battle of the Bay World series, right
1:33:48
Speaker 2: if I'm not mistaken. The A's are staying at home,
1:33:51
Speaker 2: although they don't seem to do that well at home
1:33:53
Speaker 2: typically because this stadium is not really a real home stadium,
1:33:58
Speaker 2: a Triple A steam I'm not good. But the A's
1:34:00
Speaker 2: are coming off losing to Saint Louis a couple of
1:34:02
Speaker 2: times close games in that series, though. San Francisco's coming
1:34:06
Speaker 2: in off losing the last two games to the Dodgers,
1:34:09
Speaker 2: so they're staying in California. But I don't know, man,
1:34:11
Speaker 2: coming off a big series against the Dodgers, I mean,
1:34:14
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're gonna really overlook the Battle
1:34:16
Speaker 2: of the Bay and San Francisco's record is really bad,
1:34:19
Speaker 2: but maybe they're a little bit hungover off that Dodgers series.
1:34:23
Speaker 2: San Francisco used three relief pitchers yesterday. The A's don't
1:34:27
Speaker 2: have a good bullpen, though, and they used five relief pitchers.
1:34:30
Speaker 2: So I'm giving San Francisco a bullpen advantage here. I
1:34:33
Speaker 2: mean they have a bullpen advantage. The A's are ranked
1:34:36
Speaker 2: twenty fourth, San Francisco's ranked twentieth, but their ERA is
1:34:39
Speaker 2: a lot better than that, so I don't think they're
1:34:41
Speaker 2: that bad of a bullpen. Hitting wise, yes, San Diego
1:34:44
Speaker 2: or San Francisco is really bad twenty ninth. Yes, the
1:34:47
Speaker 2: A's have the way better offense. They're sixth currently. Tyler
1:34:52
Speaker 2: Molly is pitching for San Francisco. We have Mally against Savali.
1:34:55
Speaker 2: It's the the rhyming matchup here. Mally has not been
1:35:00
Speaker 2: good for the Giants this year. Man five point one
1:35:02
Speaker 2: eighty ray, one point four to nine whip. That's not good.
1:35:05
Speaker 2: He's been really bad on the road eight point one
1:35:08
Speaker 2: six roadra That's probably not a good sign. Pitching in
1:35:11
Speaker 2: a very hit or friendly park when he's already bad
1:35:14
Speaker 2: on the road, that's not a good sign. He's got
1:35:17
Speaker 2: forty two strikeouts and forty one to two thirds innings,
1:35:19
Speaker 2: which isn't bad, but twenty walks, eight home runs allowed.
1:35:23
Speaker 2: That is not what you want to see when you're
1:35:24
Speaker 2: going into a home run friendly ballpark. Even though he
1:35:27
Speaker 2: does get a decent amount of ground balls, but even so,
1:35:30
Speaker 2: too many home runs forty two hits allowed as well,
1:35:33
Speaker 2: that's kind of a lot. He's kind of alternated good
1:35:36
Speaker 2: and bad starts throwing. If he does alternate again, he'd
1:35:39
Speaker 2: actually pitch well here, but I don't think I want
1:35:42
Speaker 2: to rely on that going against ann excuse the As here,
1:35:47
Speaker 2: he does actually have good numbers against them. Moalley was
1:35:50
Speaker 2: actually in their division last year with Texas, but they
1:35:53
Speaker 2: still only have eighteen at bats against him five to two,
1:35:56
Speaker 2: strike a walk, ragion one sixty seven average allowed for
1:35:59
Speaker 2: seventy two. So he has actually done well against these
1:36:02
Speaker 2: A's bats in the past. I don't know if that's
1:36:05
Speaker 2: gonna be enough, because I don't really trust anything else
1:36:07
Speaker 2: about his numbers. Savally, pitching for the A's, he's actually
1:36:10
Speaker 2: been okay two point five ninety rara, but his one
1:36:14
Speaker 2: point three to nine whip tells you that his era
1:36:17
Speaker 2: is definitely not legitimate, like it definitely should be higher
1:36:20
Speaker 2: than that. He's been a little bit worse at home,
1:36:22
Speaker 2: which is understandable becus it's a hard part to pitch.
1:36:25
Speaker 2: In three point four to five, Vrra is still not
1:36:27
Speaker 2: really that bad, though, but he is worse at home.
1:36:30
Speaker 2: He's coming off a road shut out of Baltimore. He's
1:36:33
Speaker 2: actually been good over his last few starts. He's allowed
1:36:36
Speaker 2: one run in his last three outings combined, and two
1:36:39
Speaker 2: of them are at we're at home. Not a lot
1:36:43
Speaker 2: of strikeouts in there. The twelve strikeouts six walks over
1:36:45
Speaker 2: that span in fifteen innings, I believe is what that was.
1:36:49
Speaker 2: He's got a thirty three to thirteen overall strike out
1:36:51
Speaker 2: walk ratios. Just he doesn't strike out a ton of guys.
1:36:54
Speaker 2: He's allowed too many hits though, forty five hits in
1:36:56
Speaker 2: forty one to two thirds innings not great. So I
1:37:00
Speaker 2: do think he's worse than his era would suggest. I
1:37:02
Speaker 2: will say that, which I already did. Numbers against San
1:37:06
Speaker 2: Francisco are good, though, sixty seven at bats one forty
1:37:10
Speaker 2: nine average allowed, four to thirty two ops, fifteen to
1:37:13
Speaker 2: five strike out walk ratio. Do we dare go under here?
1:37:19
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, man, I mean I wouldn't
1:37:22
Speaker 2: go full game because the A's bullpen is really bad.
1:37:25
Speaker 2: Both starting pitchers actually have good matchup numbers, though the
1:37:28
Speaker 2: money's all coming in on the over here the totals
1:37:30
Speaker 2: at ten. There are some arguments to be made for
1:37:33
Speaker 2: a first five under in this game, though, But yeah,
1:37:36
Speaker 2: it does seem really dangerous as well, because there are
1:37:38
Speaker 2: definitely some negatives with both these pictures as well, and
1:37:41
Speaker 2: the home road splits are so bad that, yeah, I
1:37:44
Speaker 2: don't think I could recommend that either. I don't have
1:37:47
Speaker 2: a good feel for this game. Man. The money is
1:37:50
Speaker 2: coming in on San Francisco sixty six percent of tickets
1:37:52
Speaker 2: on the A's eighty one percent of the cash on
1:37:54
Speaker 2: sanfran I think I disagree. You know, even though Savali
1:37:59
Speaker 2: isn't his as the Zra looks, I think he has
1:38:01
Speaker 2: been better than Molly. Molly's road numbers are just so
1:38:05
Speaker 2: bad here. I think I would lean A's maybe first five,
1:38:08
Speaker 2: because San Francisco's bullpen is still better as around minus
1:38:12
Speaker 2: one thirty on the money level. But maybe A's first
1:38:14
Speaker 2: five makes sense. But that's gonna do it for baseball.
1:38:18
Speaker 2: We got three unders today, WNBA not gonna give out
1:38:23
Speaker 2: a WNBA play. Most of these games are on I ON.
1:38:25
Speaker 2: I have one, you know, lean that I feel somewhat
1:38:29
Speaker 2: strongly about. But it's not good enough in my opinion,
1:38:32
Speaker 2: and it's not the first game. Even though this is
1:38:34
Speaker 2: a zig zag spot Vegas and Connecticut, these teams are
1:38:38
Speaker 2: playing for the second time in a row. Vegas already
1:38:41
Speaker 2: obliterated Connecticut. Vegas is one of the best teams in
1:38:44
Speaker 2: the league. They're the returning champs. They have a lot
1:38:46
Speaker 2: of those same players back, including Asia Wilson, who I
1:38:50
Speaker 2: think might have wound up winning MVP last year because
1:38:52
Speaker 2: Collier got hurt. I don't remember Connecticut. They're not a
1:38:56
Speaker 2: good team, man. They're owing three so far. They just
1:38:58
Speaker 2: played Vegas. Like I said, in this same arena at
1:39:01
Speaker 2: Mohegan Sun, I think is still where they're at. And
1:39:04
Speaker 2: Vegas won the game by thirty one. Now I think
1:39:08
Speaker 2: there will be some regression here. I don't think they're
1:39:10
Speaker 2: gonna win by thirty one again. Vegas shot crazy in
1:39:13
Speaker 2: the game. They shot fifty four percent from the field.
1:39:16
Speaker 2: That's not gonna happen again. Connecticut was thirty three percent.
1:39:21
Speaker 2: I know this is the WNBA, and we don't see
1:39:23
Speaker 2: good shooting in the WNBA, but still that's pretty low.
1:39:27
Speaker 2: So I think there will be some regression and this
1:39:28
Speaker 2: game should be closer this time than that one. But
1:39:31
Speaker 2: Vegas still kind of dominated the game. Man. They won
1:39:34
Speaker 2: the rebounding battle by seventeen. They were dominant, you know,
1:39:39
Speaker 2: they led by as much as thirty six. So I
1:39:42
Speaker 2: don't know, man. Even though, yeah, you could argue that
1:39:46
Speaker 2: there'll be some regression here, there should be a zigzag
1:39:49
Speaker 2: here in favor of Connecticut. I would lean that way.
1:39:54
Speaker 2: I agree with Connecticut here. The money doesn't agree. Seventy
1:39:57
Speaker 2: percent of tickets sixty five percent of the cash on Connecticut. Here,
1:40:01
Speaker 2: Vegas is a fifteen point favorite. I think that's basically
1:40:04
Speaker 2: what they were in the last game as well. I
1:40:06
Speaker 2: think they're about fifteen and a half, so I think
1:40:08
Speaker 2: the number is about the same here. I'm gonna lean
1:40:12
Speaker 2: for the zigzag towards Connecticut, like I said, but I
1:40:14
Speaker 2: don't like it, man, So yeah, this game it's gonna
1:40:19
Speaker 2: be a stay away from me. Don't really have a
1:40:21
Speaker 2: whole lot else to say about that game, but yeah,
1:40:24
Speaker 2: it's it is a mismatch. That's kind of the problem
1:40:27
Speaker 2: I have with it. Like there's just a wide disparity
1:40:29
Speaker 2: between these two teams, Washington and Indiana. Indiana's got to
1:40:35
Speaker 2: get back on track. Man. They just won in LA.
1:40:37
Speaker 2: Kind of weird. They traveled out for one game in
1:40:39
Speaker 2: LA and now they're coming back to Indiana, so it
1:40:42
Speaker 2: is kind of a return home spot. But the return
1:40:45
Speaker 2: home spots don't really happen that much, Like, you know,
1:40:48
Speaker 2: the return home spots are usually from short road trips
1:40:51
Speaker 2: in the WNBA. But you know, I don't I don't
1:40:55
Speaker 2: know what, you know, I just don't know which way
1:40:57
Speaker 2: to look at this game. Like Indiana should start doing better.
1:41:00
Speaker 2: Kaitln Clark hasn't played well so far, but she's coming
1:41:03
Speaker 2: back from injury, you know, like Indiana still needs to
1:41:06
Speaker 2: gel a little bit with her, and you know, Sophie
1:41:08
Speaker 2: Conningham whatever coming back from injury. Washington, they were not
1:41:13
Speaker 2: one of the better teams last year. I don't know
1:41:15
Speaker 2: how good they are, but they're coming off a big
1:41:17
Speaker 2: game against the Liberty, who as we can see here,
1:41:20
Speaker 2: I think the Liberty are one of the top teams
1:41:22
Speaker 2: in the league and they won the championship two years ago.
1:41:25
Speaker 2: That was a big game for Washington to take the
1:41:27
Speaker 2: Liberty into overtime and then fall just short. You know
1:41:30
Speaker 2: what I always say, when a team puts in a
1:41:31
Speaker 2: huge effort like that and they almost pull off and
1:41:34
Speaker 2: up set and beat a good team like that, a
1:41:36
Speaker 2: lot of times they're hung over in the next game.
1:41:38
Speaker 2: My problem with it is they know they're facing Indiana
1:41:40
Speaker 2: Caitlyn Clark, you know, so usually you get up to
1:41:43
Speaker 2: face Indiana, but they are still coming off a monster
1:41:46
Speaker 2: effort against the Liberties. So I'm gonna slightly lean towards
1:41:50
Speaker 2: Indiana laying the points in this one, but I really
1:41:52
Speaker 2: don't like it. The money does seem to agree with
1:41:55
Speaker 2: that one. Washington looks like a public side. I don't know,
1:41:59
Speaker 2: like the narrative there is that Caitlin Clark's not playing
1:42:01
Speaker 2: well and whatever. Yeah, she's gonna turn it around, though,
1:42:05
Speaker 2: I mean she's good. Uh seventy five percent of tickets
1:42:07
Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of the cash on Washington, so the
1:42:11
Speaker 2: money looks like it is coming in on Indiana. I
1:42:14
Speaker 2: agree with that you have to lay eight points with
1:42:16
Speaker 2: them right now, though you do it that way, maybe
1:42:18
Speaker 2: there are still some seven and a half's around. I
1:42:21
Speaker 2: would lean that way, but it's not gonna make my
1:42:22
Speaker 2: card or anything like that. And it's not my strongest
1:42:25
Speaker 2: WNBA opinion either, but it does look like you're fading
1:42:28
Speaker 2: a public underdog if you do take Indiana here. So
1:42:31
Speaker 2: public underdog's surprised to see Washington as one. But usually
1:42:36
Speaker 2: you do want to fade those teams, all right, Toronto
1:42:39
Speaker 2: and LA. This is actually I think my strongest opinion
1:42:43
Speaker 2: in the WNBA, But I'm not gonna play it La.
1:42:46
Speaker 2: They haven't won a game yet, man, and they've played
1:42:48
Speaker 2: both games at home so far. But they played Vegas
1:42:51
Speaker 2: in Indiana, so they played some good teams. So I
1:42:53
Speaker 2: think the fact that LA is off to an zero
1:42:55
Speaker 2: to two start, I'm not gonna read that much into it.
1:42:58
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't think they're that bad. I think
1:43:00
Speaker 2: they're kind of a mediocre team. You know, they've had
1:43:03
Speaker 2: a difficult schedule so far, and this is a step
1:43:05
Speaker 2: way down in class to face Toronto, who is an
1:43:08
Speaker 2: expansion team and still you know, might be dealing with
1:43:11
Speaker 2: some chemistry and stuff. I think Toronto could be in
1:43:14
Speaker 2: a difficult spot here because they just got their first
1:43:16
Speaker 2: win as a franchise, and you know that was part
1:43:19
Speaker 2: of my handicap last night with fading Portland is they
1:43:23
Speaker 2: had just gotten their first win as a franchise, which
1:43:26
Speaker 2: was on their home floor, and it was a huge
1:43:29
Speaker 2: upset for them. So I thought they were in a
1:43:32
Speaker 2: letdown spot as part of that, and we got the
1:43:34
Speaker 2: win yesterday by fading them. Toronto could be in a
1:43:37
Speaker 2: letdown spot, man, because they got their first win, but
1:43:39
Speaker 2: it was against Seattle. Maybe that's still big because you
1:43:43
Speaker 2: get your first win as a franchise. Seattle was in
1:43:45
Speaker 2: the playoffs last year. Though Seattle looks like they're taking
1:43:47
Speaker 2: a step down this year. They're not very good. But
1:43:50
Speaker 2: now Toronto also has to go all the way to
1:43:52
Speaker 2: the West Coast, and you know, I talked about how
1:43:53
Speaker 2: this can mess with their biological clock. This is Toronto's
1:43:57
Speaker 2: first time playing outside of their home arena this year.
1:44:01
Speaker 2: That does not look like a good spot to me.
1:44:03
Speaker 2: And LA is staying at home really, you know, looking
1:44:06
Speaker 2: for their first win of the season. LA is clearly
1:44:08
Speaker 2: the better team, and but it might not be that
1:44:11
Speaker 2: clear to people that don't follow the WNBA. They might say, oh,
1:44:14
Speaker 2: LA is zero and two and Toronto's one and one
1:44:16
Speaker 2: in LA's laying seven and a half, Like, how are
1:44:19
Speaker 2: we getting seven and a half points with the team
1:44:21
Speaker 2: with the better record. Yeah, that's because obviously the oddsmakers
1:44:24
Speaker 2: are telling you LA is actually the better team here.
1:44:27
Speaker 2: So this is my strongest opinion on this WNBA board.
1:44:31
Speaker 2: Not gonna be a play for me, but I would
1:44:32
Speaker 2: lay the points with LA here. I know you missed
1:44:36
Speaker 2: out on a better number. It was six and a
1:44:38
Speaker 2: half seven, and now it's through that key number, it's
1:44:41
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I might wait, if you're gonna
1:44:43
Speaker 2: actually play this, I might wait to see if it
1:44:45
Speaker 2: gets back to seven, because you know seven is a
1:44:47
Speaker 2: key number, because that's when you stop intentionally following the
1:44:50
Speaker 2: three possession threshold. Toronto sixty three percent of tickets, eighty
1:44:54
Speaker 2: six percent of the cash. I'm surprised to see the
1:44:57
Speaker 2: actual money on Toronto. I don't agree with that. I
1:44:59
Speaker 2: would the points with La. There, Zach, what's up? Thanks
1:45:04
Speaker 2: for hanging out. I already talked about baseball, man. I
1:45:07
Speaker 2: lean towards the Royals today, so they go. Not a
1:45:10
Speaker 2: play for me on that one, and then we have Chicago.
1:45:13
Speaker 2: Phoenix is the last game up here. This is a
1:45:16
Speaker 2: tough one to figure out for me. Phoenix has lost
1:45:20
Speaker 2: two games in a row. But there were two pretty
1:45:21
Speaker 2: good teams Golden State Minnesota. I think Minnesota is not
1:45:25
Speaker 2: quite as good as they were last year, but I
1:45:27
Speaker 2: think they're still a pretty solid team. Golden State. I
1:45:30
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be one of the top teams in
1:45:32
Speaker 2: the league this year, like they spent a lot of
1:45:33
Speaker 2: money to bolster that roster. I think Phoenix is a
1:45:38
Speaker 2: decent team as well, though, but they've had a very
1:45:40
Speaker 2: difficult schedule, and of course they crushed Vegas in that opener,
1:45:43
Speaker 2: which was a win for us on the show here,
1:45:46
Speaker 2: and we did win on the other Vegas game as well,
1:45:48
Speaker 2: the one against La. Phoenix is staying at home. Yeah,
1:45:53
Speaker 2: but they're coming off kind of a tough loss to Minnesota.
1:45:55
Speaker 2: But remember that was a revenge win for Minnesota because
1:45:58
Speaker 2: Phoenix eliminated Minnesota the playoffs last year, So that game
1:46:02
Speaker 2: meant a lot to Minnesota. I don't know how much
1:46:04
Speaker 2: it meant to Phoenix, though, you know, I don't have
1:46:07
Speaker 2: a good gauge on the situation here. Chicago is two
1:46:11
Speaker 2: to zero, but they beat Portland, you know, and expansion
1:46:13
Speaker 2: team whatever. Impressive that they beat Golden State, though, that's
1:46:17
Speaker 2: a good win on the road. Chicago pulled off the
1:46:19
Speaker 2: upset against Golden State. Now they're playing a third straight
1:46:23
Speaker 2: road game here. That could be a little bit difficult.
1:46:26
Speaker 2: I don't really see it. I don't really love Chicago
1:46:29
Speaker 2: in this spot. I think I would lean towards Phoenix.
1:46:32
Speaker 2: Phoenix is laying four points. They're laying points for a reason.
1:46:36
Speaker 2: Here Chicago's getting the money though, fifty eight percent of tickets,
1:46:39
Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash on them. I don't know.
1:46:42
Speaker 2: I think I would lean in the other direction towards Phoenix.
1:46:44
Speaker 2: But this is probably my weakest read of all four
1:46:47
Speaker 2: of those games there, So I don't, you know, I don't. Yeah,
1:46:49
Speaker 2: I don't really like it at all. Also, by the way,
1:46:54
Speaker 2: you know, I mean I do look at who these
1:46:56
Speaker 2: teams are playing next as well, Like Toronto they're playing
1:46:59
Speaker 2: Law though, so that kind of throws out that part
1:47:03
Speaker 2: of that, ANDICAP they're playing La again in the next game,
1:47:05
Speaker 2: so it's not a look ahead spot, all right. And
1:47:07
Speaker 2: then we have NBA to finish the show off here.
1:47:10
Speaker 2: There's no NHL tonight. We do have a play in
1:47:13
Speaker 2: the NBA, by the way, and I'm not gonna touch
1:47:16
Speaker 2: this Detroit Cleveland series here. I think there are just
1:47:19
Speaker 2: some conflicting factors here. Now, Detroit should have won the
1:47:24
Speaker 2: last game, dude, I know, Detroit. Everybody's complaining that that
1:47:28
Speaker 2: should have been a foul call when Detroit got tripped
1:47:31
Speaker 2: at the end of regulation there. I'm not so sure
1:47:34
Speaker 2: about the foul call, you know, or the lack of
1:47:37
Speaker 2: a foul call, like it looked incidental to me. But
1:47:41
Speaker 2: what I will say is that the ball went out
1:47:42
Speaker 2: of bounce with time still left on the clock, and
1:47:45
Speaker 2: the refs are just like, nope, it's overtime now. So
1:47:48
Speaker 2: I think the refs should have put, like, you know,
1:47:51
Speaker 2: I don't know, some fraction of a second back on
1:47:53
Speaker 2: the clock, But even if they did, it's not like
1:47:55
Speaker 2: Detroit was gonna do anything with that remaining time. But
1:47:58
Speaker 2: the game was tied at that point. The Cavs want
1:48:01
Speaker 2: up winning an overtime, But if you're Detroit, you gotta
1:48:03
Speaker 2: blame yourselves for blowing. I think they had a nine
1:48:06
Speaker 2: point lead with three minutes left, and that's what Detroit
1:48:09
Speaker 2: blew in that game. It was the first Cleveland road
1:48:12
Speaker 2: win of the playoffs this postseason. Cleveland's been an extreme
1:48:17
Speaker 2: home road splitty, and Detroit has as well. Detroit's been
1:48:22
Speaker 2: better at home all season. They've been better at home
1:48:24
Speaker 2: during the playoffs. Cleveland's been a lot better at home
1:48:26
Speaker 2: as well. But now they are at home tonight, so
1:48:29
Speaker 2: Cleveland might actually do this finish it off tonight. They
1:48:32
Speaker 2: do not want to have to go on the road
1:48:33
Speaker 2: and play game seven on the road. Game seven is
1:48:36
Speaker 2: usually favor the home team, and you know, Cleveland's been
1:48:39
Speaker 2: such a home road split type of team. They do
1:48:42
Speaker 2: not want to have to do that. So they're definitely
1:48:43
Speaker 2: gonna be motivated here. But obviously Detroit's gonna be an
1:48:46
Speaker 2: underdog tonight, and Detroit, you know, I mean an underdog
1:48:50
Speaker 2: with max urgency because they're facing elimination. Not really something
1:48:55
Speaker 2: I necessarily want to fade either. Detroit was winning most
1:48:59
Speaker 2: of this game here against Cleveland in the last game here,
1:49:04
Speaker 2: so yeah, Detroit was winning like almost seventy percent of
1:49:07
Speaker 2: the game. Cleveland did actually win the rebound battle for
1:49:10
Speaker 2: once Cleveland. The one really lopsided thing about this game
1:49:14
Speaker 2: that I think will regress though, is Cleveland went to
1:49:16
Speaker 2: the line eighteen more times and they hit thirteen more
1:49:20
Speaker 2: free throws. That was a big outlier. Dude, Cleveland was
1:49:23
Speaker 2: going to the line way more, and Detroit has been
1:49:26
Speaker 2: the team that's been going to the line way more
1:49:28
Speaker 2: for most of the series, So I think that is
1:49:30
Speaker 2: going to flip a little bit. Even though this game
1:49:32
Speaker 2: is going to be in Cleveland, I think there is
1:49:34
Speaker 2: going to be a big regression there. I think that
1:49:36
Speaker 2: is the one major regression point is Cleveland's amount of
1:49:40
Speaker 2: free throws. I think that is going to regress. Other
1:49:43
Speaker 2: than that, I mean, Cleveland did shoot forty from three
1:49:45
Speaker 2: in that game, which is a bit high as well,
1:49:47
Speaker 2: so that might see some regression as well. But again,
1:49:50
Speaker 2: the free throws was really the biggest outlier that I
1:49:52
Speaker 2: saw in that box score. Detroit actually had fifteen more
1:49:56
Speaker 2: field goal attempts in the game, which does tell you
1:49:58
Speaker 2: that Detroit was out playing Cleveland for a lot of
1:50:02
Speaker 2: that game. If you have more possessions, typically that's gonna
1:50:04
Speaker 2: mean you're gonna have more points in the game. But again,
1:50:08
Speaker 2: Cleveland did have more possessions than that makes it look
1:50:10
Speaker 2: like because they went to the free throw line of time.
1:50:12
Speaker 2: Cleveland is a four point favorite or so here. That's
1:50:17
Speaker 2: about where it was in the other home games. The
1:50:19
Speaker 2: money is indicating towards Cleveland. Detroit fifty per tickets fifty
1:50:23
Speaker 2: five percent of the cash on Detroit. I did say
1:50:26
Speaker 2: I felt that Cleveland would win this series. Cleveland does
1:50:29
Speaker 2: have the experience edge. Detroit is the better defense, though,
1:50:33
Speaker 2: and better defense getting points. Maybe I wouldn't count them out,
1:50:38
Speaker 2: you know, as far as like, if there's any sort
1:50:40
Speaker 2: of zigzag that could happen here, I think it is
1:50:43
Speaker 2: the Cleveland free throw shooting though, So I think I
1:50:45
Speaker 2: might actually lean towards taking the points with Detroit. But
1:50:48
Speaker 2: of course I don't think I want to do that
1:50:50
Speaker 2: because Cleveland's like eight and one against the spread at
1:50:52
Speaker 2: home in the playoffs so far, whatever it is, and
1:50:55
Speaker 2: they've won all of the games outright, so I don't
1:50:58
Speaker 2: want to fade that type thing, you know, and the
1:51:01
Speaker 2: experience factor for Cleveland whatever. I think Detroit has been
1:51:05
Speaker 2: the better coached team throughout the series though, although Atkinson
1:51:09
Speaker 2: looks like he's finally turning it around with Cleveland, but
1:51:12
Speaker 2: he did not coach well in the first few games.
1:51:14
Speaker 2: His rotations just made no sense. Anyway. That is not
1:51:18
Speaker 2: gonna be the game I'm gonna play. By the way,
1:51:20
Speaker 2: the total the money is coming in towards the under
1:51:23
Speaker 2: in that game fifty percent of tickets sixty five percent
1:51:25
Speaker 2: of the cash on the under. It makes sense because
1:51:27
Speaker 2: once you get to these late series games like this,
1:51:29
Speaker 2: in these close series, you get really intense, deepfense, So
1:51:32
Speaker 2: the under makes some sense. But the total has dropped
1:51:36
Speaker 2: from I think it was around two thirteen to twelve
1:51:39
Speaker 2: and a half in the last game at Cleveland, and
1:51:41
Speaker 2: now we're looking at two ten. So the oddsmakers obviously
1:51:44
Speaker 2: know this and they're gonna start lowering the total. So
1:51:47
Speaker 2: there's less value in playing the under there. And I
1:51:50
Speaker 2: just don't see too many outliers as far as like
1:51:52
Speaker 2: why the last game, Like the last game went under
1:51:55
Speaker 2: in regulation and most of these games have gone over.
1:51:58
Speaker 2: If you had the under, you got screwed because as
1:52:00
Speaker 2: the game went under in regulation, only went over because
1:52:02
Speaker 2: of overtime very aptly named overtime in that one. So yeah,
1:52:09
Speaker 2: there weren't really an outliers in that game that sent
1:52:12
Speaker 2: the game over, but the fact that it went into
1:52:13
Speaker 2: overtime is what sent it over all. Right, last game
1:52:17
Speaker 2: is San Antonio and Minnesota, and we will have a
1:52:19
Speaker 2: play on this. We're gonna zig zag, We're gonna take
1:52:25
Speaker 2: Minnesota plus five and a half, and the last time
1:52:28
Speaker 2: we did this, I know the play loss. When we
1:52:31
Speaker 2: did this in Game three, it was a very similar setup.
1:52:34
Speaker 2: Minnesota got blown out in San Antonio. I thought it
1:52:38
Speaker 2: was a zigzag. I thought there were some regression points
1:52:41
Speaker 2: Minnesota as an underdog, good defensive team, even though both
1:52:44
Speaker 2: teams are good defensively at home, Minnesota has a lot
1:52:47
Speaker 2: more experience. Although I know San Antonio is getting more
1:52:50
Speaker 2: experience as they go here. I get it, but Minnesota
1:52:53
Speaker 2: has already been here deep into these series if we're
1:52:56
Speaker 2: in these high pressure situations. So I liked all that,
1:52:59
Speaker 2: And the dude, Minnesota, they should have covered in Game three,
1:53:04
Speaker 2: like they got out to a really bad start, but
1:53:06
Speaker 2: then they got right back into the game and they
1:53:08
Speaker 2: were covering the game like very They were right in
1:53:10
Speaker 2: that game basically why or wire and then they fell
1:53:13
Speaker 2: just short at the end by like one or two baskets.
1:53:16
Speaker 2: So Minnesota did not play poorly in that game Game three,
1:53:19
Speaker 2: and this setup is very similar to that one. Like
1:53:22
Speaker 2: I said, we're getting I think an extra half point
1:53:24
Speaker 2: here with a five and a half. Money is indicating
1:53:28
Speaker 2: on Minnesota fifty two percent of tickets, fifty six percent
1:53:31
Speaker 2: of the cash on them, so the money looks like
1:53:33
Speaker 2: it agrees. These games are both on Amazon Prime. By
1:53:36
Speaker 2: the way, Minnesota is of course facing elimination here at
1:53:40
Speaker 2: home and getting points. That is a situation where I
1:53:42
Speaker 2: think you tend to want to look towards that team
1:53:45
Speaker 2: those two home games. Minnesota, by the way, they lost
1:53:48
Speaker 2: both home games in this series by seven and five
1:53:52
Speaker 2: or excuse you know, by seven, and then they won
1:53:54
Speaker 2: the other game by five my mistakes. So yeah, Minnesota
1:53:57
Speaker 2: has been close to covering both of these games. But
1:54:00
Speaker 2: of course the game they won, Wemby got ejected from
1:54:02
Speaker 2: the game. But Minnesota was losing that game late, I'm
1:54:07
Speaker 2: pretty sure, and they eraced like an eight point deficit
1:54:10
Speaker 2: late in the game and still won. So you know,
1:54:14
Speaker 2: but yes, Wemby being out obviously did factor into that.
1:54:17
Speaker 2: But let's look at what happened in the last game, dude.
1:54:19
Speaker 2: San Antonio won the previous game by almost thirty points.
1:54:23
Speaker 2: They won by twenty nine points, and you look at
1:54:26
Speaker 2: what happened in this game. It wasn't really what it
1:54:28
Speaker 2: looked like, dude. This game was tied in the third quarter,
1:54:32
Speaker 2: like almost midway through the third quarter. The game was
1:54:34
Speaker 2: tied and then Minnesota was still within I think single
1:54:37
Speaker 2: digits a couple of points in the fourth quarter. So
1:54:39
Speaker 2: this game wasn't totally what it looked like. And I
1:54:43
Speaker 2: think we're gonna see some regression points here. Minnesota shot
1:54:46
Speaker 2: thirty nine percent from the field, while san Antonio shot
1:54:49
Speaker 2: fifty three percent from the field. I think we'll see
1:54:52
Speaker 2: some regression points there. I know Minnesota has had some
1:54:55
Speaker 2: offensive issues here, but they're definitely worse on the road
1:54:59
Speaker 2: as well, and you gotta think they're gonna shoot better
1:55:02
Speaker 2: than that. That is low for an NBA game plus
1:55:04
Speaker 2: twenty seven percent from three, I think Minnesota will shoot
1:55:08
Speaker 2: a bit better here, even though I know san Antonio
1:55:10
Speaker 2: is very good defensively, san Antonio should not shoot this
1:55:13
Speaker 2: well again fifty three percent. I know, I think Wemby
1:55:17
Speaker 2: was just kind of taking over the game whatever, But yeah,
1:55:21
Speaker 2: I just think that this game was not quite the
1:55:24
Speaker 2: blowout that it looked like on the score. But I
1:55:26
Speaker 2: think there will be some regression points there and progression
1:55:30
Speaker 2: points as far as the shooting. Minnesota only lost the
1:55:33
Speaker 2: rebound battle by eight, which isn't really that bad. And
1:55:39
Speaker 2: then Minnesota, like I said, they are also a better
1:55:41
Speaker 2: home team twenty six and fifteen at home. San Antonio
1:55:44
Speaker 2: was a little bit more vulnerable as a road team
1:55:46
Speaker 2: twenty nine to twelve, and we have seen that be
1:55:48
Speaker 2: the case in this series. Yeah. I liked all of this, man,
1:55:54
Speaker 2: And as far as the total is concerned, the money
1:55:56
Speaker 2: is slightly in it getting dwardsy over, I don't know
1:56:00
Speaker 2: if I agree with that. I think if Minnesota is
1:56:03
Speaker 2: gonna do well in this game, I think they needed
1:56:05
Speaker 2: to be an undergame, Like you need to hold san
1:56:07
Speaker 2: Antonio scoring and check a little bit. If you're gonna
1:56:09
Speaker 2: cover as a Minnesota team, it's better on defense than offense.
1:56:13
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards looks like he's still not one hundred percent,
1:56:16
Speaker 2: but he is still going out there and playing, So
1:56:18
Speaker 2: there is that. Give him credit for that, man. Yeah.
1:56:22
Speaker 2: So I think as far as the injuries is concern, yeah,
1:56:24
Speaker 2: it's just the same pretty much throughout the series. We
1:56:27
Speaker 2: don't have a whole lot going on with the injury
1:56:29
Speaker 2: report there in either of these games. Yeah. I mean
1:56:33
Speaker 2: it's the playoffs, man, I mean, your best players are
1:56:35
Speaker 2: gonna place. You don't really have to worry about any
1:56:36
Speaker 2: of that. But as far as the total, yeah, the
1:56:38
Speaker 2: totals around where it has been in the series at
1:56:41
Speaker 2: two eighteen and a half. But maybe you got to
1:56:43
Speaker 2: think that because the game in San Antonio last time
1:56:45
Speaker 2: was around that same number, a game in Minnesota might
1:56:48
Speaker 2: be a little bit lower scoring than that. So I
1:56:52
Speaker 2: kind of lean under in this game, especially because I
1:56:54
Speaker 2: think that would be correlated to Minnesota. But I don't
1:56:56
Speaker 2: have a good opinion on the total there. Plus, I
1:56:59
Speaker 2: think while San Antonio shooting might regress, I think Minnesota
1:57:02
Speaker 2: shooting should get better in this game. So I like
1:57:06
Speaker 2: the side and that one for zig Zag. That's gonna
1:57:08
Speaker 2: do it. Man, that's the show for today. We have
1:57:11
Speaker 2: four plays, three baseball full game unders, which are Yankees
1:57:16
Speaker 2: Mets under the seven or seven and a half, depending
1:57:18
Speaker 2: on what price you can find out there, Boston and
1:57:21
Speaker 2: Atlanta under eight, and San Diego Seattle under seven, and
1:57:27
Speaker 2: then we have the Minnesota Tea Wolves plus the points.
1:57:30
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Let's get back on track. I
1:57:34
Speaker 2: mean two and two it's acceptable. I mean, if you're
1:57:36
Speaker 2: gonna have a losing day, I wanted to at worse
1:57:40
Speaker 2: be a slight ish losing day, and it could have
1:57:42
Speaker 2: been a two and one winning day if I didn't
1:57:44
Speaker 2: add that last play Nolan McLain. I'm gonna call him
1:57:47
Speaker 2: up man demand that he give me my money back.
1:57:50
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Learn it toe on Twitter. You
1:57:52
Speaker 2: can subscribe to me there. That helps me out. Learn
1:57:54
Speaker 2: it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to the channel here
1:57:58
Speaker 2: and you'll get notified. I will do it Preakness show.
1:58:01
Speaker 2: I keep forgetting to mention that the Preakness is tomorrow.
1:58:04
Speaker 2: I know it's less heralded. It's probably the least heralded
1:58:07
Speaker 2: of the three dr or the three had Dirty. I
1:58:10
Speaker 2: almost said Derby, the three horse races. They are the
1:58:12
Speaker 2: Triple Crown races, you know. I know the Derby we
1:58:16
Speaker 2: got a little bit messed up by a couple of
1:58:17
Speaker 2: those horses that got in there into the Winter's Circle.
1:58:21
Speaker 2: But yeah, we'll talk about the Preakness. I'll be an
1:58:24
Speaker 2: idiot about it because I don't really know that much
1:58:25
Speaker 2: about it. I don't think I'm gonna actually put money
1:58:28
Speaker 2: on it or anything. But I'll give my thoughts on
1:58:29
Speaker 2: the Preakness. I'll probably do. I have to do that tonight,
1:58:32
Speaker 2: I think, because it's tomorrow. So I'm gonna do that.
1:58:35
Speaker 2: So be on the lookout for that subscribe and to
1:58:37
Speaker 2: get the notifications for it. I know I still have
1:58:40
Speaker 2: to do an NFL season preview, season win totals whatever.
1:58:43
Speaker 2: That will come in the near future as well. We'll
1:58:46
Speaker 2: be having some World Cup stuff coming up, which might
1:58:49
Speaker 2: just be me filling out the knockout stage bracket, but
1:58:52
Speaker 2: at least I'll probably do that just for fun at
1:58:54
Speaker 2: the very least, even if I might not actually be
1:58:57
Speaker 2: betting the World Cup, which when I when I've done
1:59:00
Speaker 2: it in the past, I've done it, not that seriously.
1:59:03
Speaker 2: I've just done it very sparingly where I thought that, oh, yeah,
1:59:06
Speaker 2: this makes sense to do this. But anyway, we'll see
1:59:09
Speaker 2: what happens. Listen on audio as well. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
1:59:14
Speaker 2: That all helps me out as well. Covered in you
1:59:16
Speaker 2: because my yuke channel on YouTube keeping that up to
1:59:18
Speaker 2: date still padroon dot com slash learn to Toad, You
1:59:21
Speaker 2: can throw me some support there that trying to keep
1:59:25
Speaker 2: that up to date as well with the yuke feed
1:59:27
Speaker 2: at least Loser casts every Tuesday night. You can check
1:59:31
Speaker 2: that out. G spot The Giants podcast and I'm on
1:59:34
Speaker 2: with Ben Weir and Adam Nutter maybe a mainstay on
1:59:38
Speaker 2: that show. I don't even know, but that will you
1:59:42
Speaker 2: know we'll be back doing that show at some point.
1:59:45
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. For now, let's get let's get
1:59:48
Speaker 2: back on the winning side today. Peace everybody, But don't.
1:59:52
Speaker 1: You go quiet. Don't you play it from the flow.
1:59:56
Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show. Put
2:00:00
Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me, nic.
2:00:08
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on, hold on,
2:00:20
Speaker 3: let me for you. That bites hog, but it don't
2:00:30
Speaker 3: get the crown.
2:00:33
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now