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Everyone Hates My Favorite NFL Pick · Toadstool Sports

0:17
Speaker 1: Oh, I was muted. Isn't that just great? Oregon's coaching,
0:22
Speaker 1: they can kiss my ass, man. And their third string
0:25
Speaker 1: walk-on quarterback, if you want to call him that, is
0:29
Speaker 1: he really a quarterback? Brock Thomas, is that his name?
0:32
Speaker 1: They can all just kiss my ass, man. Apparently I
0:35
Speaker 1: was wrong. Apparently a 14-point downgrade from potentially Dante Moore
0:41
Speaker 1: down to that Thomas guy. Apparently it is justified. And
0:46
Speaker 1: wouldn't you know that Dylan Raiola riding the bench the
0:50
Speaker 1: whole game. Oh, he might be a guy that might
0:52
Speaker 1: actually provide something called offense. He comes into the game
0:56
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, and all of a sudden Oregon
0:59
Speaker 1: is moving the football on every drive. Wouldn't you know?
1:02
Speaker 1: You could have done that all game, but no. Why
1:04
Speaker 1: would you want to do that? Why would you want
1:05
Speaker 1: to play your quarterback who used to play on your
1:09
Speaker 1: opponent's team on Nebraska? Why would you want to play him?
1:14
Speaker 1: Against his former team. He's not going to be motivated
1:17
Speaker 1: at all. Is he? No, let's not do that. A
1:20
Speaker 1: guy with experience? No. He looked bad last week. Let's
1:23
Speaker 1: not play him at all. Let's just go with this
1:25
Speaker 1: dipshit here. And he can just have no ability to
1:29
Speaker 1: do anything all game. You've got to be kidding me.
1:33
Speaker 1: You have to be kidding me. And then Dylan Raiola
1:36
Speaker 1: finds a way to win Oregon the game. I'm pissed
1:39
Speaker 1: because they didn't cover, and if he was in the
1:41
Speaker 1: game the whole game, they would have won. They put
1:44
Speaker 1: him in in the fourth quarter, and for the, I
1:47
Speaker 1: think it was the fourth quarter, and for the short
1:48
Speaker 1: amount of time that he was in there, he outgained
1:50
Speaker 1: what Thomas, I apologize if I'm getting his name wrong, Thomas,
1:56
Speaker 1: what he had done the rest of the game. In
2:00
Speaker 1: a short amount of time, Raiola outpassed him in about
2:04
Speaker 1: two drives or whatever. You have to be kidding me.
2:08
Speaker 1: You have to be kidding me. Luckily, I didn't middle
2:12
Speaker 1: it with my Splash Sports contest, but I did hit
2:14
Speaker 1: the plus 21.5 pick that I had over in that
2:18
Speaker 1: contest because that line, you got to blindly do it.
2:21
Speaker 1: When you're given a line that's 14 points off from
2:24
Speaker 1: where it really is, you got to just blindly take that.
2:27
Speaker 1: So did well in that contest. Had a winning day.
2:30
Speaker 1: I know it doesn't sound like it. We had a
2:31
Speaker 1: winning day on the show yesterday. Started out awesome with
2:35
Speaker 1: two upset outright wins. I'm so good, man. Florida, Tennessee,
2:40
Speaker 1: both outright wins. Awesome in a very upset heavy Saturday.
2:45
Speaker 1: Things were looking up. Things were looking awesome. Vandy had
2:48
Speaker 1: the lead early on. They had a touchdown lead multiple
2:51
Speaker 1: different times early in the game. Oh, yeah, but why
2:55
Speaker 1: would they maintain the lead?
2:56
Speaker 2: Why?
2:56
Speaker 1: Why would you want to do that? No, just give
2:58
Speaker 1: the lead away. Just throw it away. Throw a pick and,
3:02
Speaker 1: you know, Later on, I think it was a pick
3:05
Speaker 1: towards the beginning of the game. Later on, throw another one.
3:08
Speaker 1: Why not? When you're down seven and you're driving and
3:10
Speaker 1: you're in Arkansas territory, looking like you're going to tie
3:12
Speaker 1: the game up again and give our bet a chance
3:14
Speaker 1: here in the remaining portion of the game. No, throw
3:17
Speaker 1: it to the other team. Why wouldn't you do that?
3:20
Speaker 1: That's what happens when I play some of these worse
3:23
Speaker 1: SEC teams. They always do that. They don't even know
3:26
Speaker 1: who's on which team. Throw it to the other jersey.
3:29
Speaker 1: What do you want, man? Isn't that just awesome? Yeah,
3:32
Speaker 1: that's just great. And then luckily we won by the
3:35
Speaker 1: hook with the Nevada play. It's why it pays to
3:38
Speaker 1: have every book available to you, man. Hopefully you got
3:40
Speaker 1: 14 and a half on that. I think it was
3:42
Speaker 1: pretty easy to find one. No excuse not to. If
3:46
Speaker 1: you got the 14, you pushed, which isn't the end
3:48
Speaker 1: of the world. But we did get the win with
3:50
Speaker 1: Nevada plus the 14 and a half there. They hung
3:52
Speaker 1: in there. They were covering, I think, the whole game
3:54
Speaker 1: and then started not playing as well late in the game.
3:57
Speaker 1: And it got dicey. No doubt about that. North Dakota
4:00
Speaker 1: State had a couple of possessions up 14 late in
4:03
Speaker 1: the game. Luckily, they were just trying to run clock
4:05
Speaker 1: at that point, and we were able to get it done.
4:08
Speaker 1: Nevada had one more chance to maybe score near the
4:10
Speaker 1: end of the game. They were driving a little bit,
4:12
Speaker 1: and then they turned it over on downs, and then
4:14
Speaker 1: at that point, North Dakota State looked like they could
4:17
Speaker 1: have almost gotten into field goal range, and there were
4:19
Speaker 1: a couple of timeouts left for Nevada, I'm thinking, oh boy,
4:23
Speaker 1: we don't want that. We do not want them to
4:25
Speaker 1: use their timeouts and hold North Dakota State to a
4:28
Speaker 1: fourth down. Please don't. So at that point, you're rooting
4:31
Speaker 1: for North Dakota State. Get a first down and then
4:33
Speaker 1: they can just kneel on it. And I believe that's
4:35
Speaker 1: what happened because the next thing I knew the game
4:37
Speaker 1: was over. So we went three and two. Upcoming on
4:41
Speaker 1: the show today, we don't have a whole lot to
4:43
Speaker 1: talk about. A couple of NHL games and Major League
4:46
Speaker 1: Baseball back in action. I don't have any additional plays
4:49
Speaker 1: for these close on the baseball game. I'll tell you
4:52
Speaker 1: what I think coming up shortly.
5:12
Speaker 3: You got a slip in your palm and a hole.
5:15
Speaker 4: In your chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
5:19
Speaker 3: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
5:23
Speaker 3: in your hand Now you stare at the chips like
5:27
Speaker 3: they made you this man But don't you go quiet,
5:31
Speaker 3: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
5:34
Speaker 3: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
5:41
Speaker 4: Look at me.
5:42
Speaker 5: Now Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
5:56
Speaker 5: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
6:04
Speaker 5: hard But he don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
6:13
Speaker 1: On, stay with me now. What's up everybody, it's Toad
6:24
Speaker 1: back with you. Toadstool Sports, Sunday morning, October 18th. Check
6:31
Speaker 1: out the NFL show, there's still time, even though we
6:33
Speaker 1: have a stupid London game coming up in about a
6:35
Speaker 1: half hour. My pick on that game, Eileen Houston in
6:39
Speaker 1: the game, but there are definitely some aspects of it
6:41
Speaker 1: that I really don't like for them, like Jacksonville staying
6:44
Speaker 1: in London for a second straight week, which has resulted
6:46
Speaker 1: in them going 3-0 in the times that they've done
6:50
Speaker 1: that before, and the fact that Jacksonville almost lost as
6:53
Speaker 1: a favorite last week. But it seemed like it was
6:56
Speaker 1: kind of a dramatic win for them, emotional win for
6:59
Speaker 1: them last week, and they could overlook this Houston team
7:02
Speaker 1: that only has one win on the season, and against
7:04
Speaker 1: the Titans. So, well, you saw my analysis last night.
7:07
Speaker 1: Go watch the show from last night. But, yes, Eileen
7:09
Speaker 1: Houston in that game. Looks way too easy to take Jacksonville.
7:13
Speaker 1: If you want my two NFL plays, I'll reiterate them
7:16
Speaker 1: at the end of the show here. But, yeah, you
7:19
Speaker 1: can go see my analysis on the NFL show from
7:21
Speaker 1: last night. It should be up everywhere. Dirty Sock, what's up?
7:24
Speaker 1: Thank you. Yes, sir, I'm trying some new things here.
7:28
Speaker 1: It's a similar intro to before, but I didn't have
7:32
Speaker 1: to slow down the– the video on that one. I
7:35
Speaker 1: wanted to, I've been wanting to do that for a while.
7:37
Speaker 1: So I finally got around to it. I don't know
7:40
Speaker 1: what I'm going to do for like an outro. Uh,
7:42
Speaker 1: I did a cold open approach today too. I'm trying
7:44
Speaker 1: to change a whole bunch of things, trying to boost everything.
7:47
Speaker 1: Let's get more views here. And man, uh, getting a
7:50
Speaker 1: lot of hate in the comments for my picks too.
7:52
Speaker 4: All right.
7:53
Speaker 1: You know, Oh, speaking of which, that's my record over
7:58
Speaker 1: the last 196 days. I've been doing this for two
8:01
Speaker 1: decades at this point. All right, yeah, in this business,
8:04
Speaker 1: you're going to get things wrong, obviously. You have to
8:08
Speaker 1: hit like 54% basically to profit in this space. This
8:12
Speaker 1: is a 57% run here for 200 days, essentially. So
8:17
Speaker 1: is that bad? Yeah, I would say no. No, it isn't.
8:21
Speaker 1: It's money-making. Chris Moneymaker, where's that guy now? The poker guy.
8:27
Speaker 1: The guy who created the poker boom when he was
8:30
Speaker 1: the first amateur to win the World Series of Poker
8:33
Speaker 1: main event. His name is literally Moneymaker. He didn't even
8:36
Speaker 1: make that up. Basically, I think he did that and
8:40
Speaker 1: then was never seen again, pretty much. Probably flash in
8:43
Speaker 1: the pan. No offense. I'm sure he's somewhere. He kept
8:46
Speaker 1: playing poker after that. Anyway, let's get into this here, man.
8:52
Speaker 1: We only have three games here. Like I said, NHL,
8:55
Speaker 1: Columbus at Minnesota is the first game up. Columbus played yesterday,
8:59
Speaker 1: so they're on a back-to-back. They were at home yesterday.
9:01
Speaker 1: They won in overtime, won nothing against the New York Rangers,
9:07
Speaker 1: who were off to a hot start. But I am
9:10
Speaker 1: expecting a little bit of a fall-off from the Rangers here,
9:12
Speaker 1: especially without Shusterkin in because I don't think they're really
9:15
Speaker 1: that good. Columbus got the job done, took overtime to
9:18
Speaker 1: do it. Swinging around on a back-to-back and having to
9:21
Speaker 1: go to Minnesota, maybe not that easy for Columbus here.
9:25
Speaker 1: For Minnesota, they have not played over the last couple days.
9:28
Speaker 1: They beat the Blues a couple days ago, so Minnesota
9:31
Speaker 1: has a rest edge here. Columbus played yesterday, like I said.
9:35
Speaker 1: The question then becomes, does Minnesota have any sort of
9:37
Speaker 1: look-ahead here to a bigger game? Might they overlook Columbus
9:41
Speaker 1: for any particular reason? Possibly yes. They play Edmonton next,
9:46
Speaker 1: so they start a road trip going to Edmonton. That's
9:49
Speaker 1: a big game. We know Edmonton's one of the better
9:51
Speaker 1: teams in the conference, in the league, if you want
9:55
Speaker 1: to say. I was correct. One of the only things
9:57
Speaker 1: I was right about yesterday in hockey was Edmonton winning
9:59
Speaker 1: that game against Utah. I was wrong about Chicago. I
10:02
Speaker 1: was wrong about the LA Kings against the Bruins. Where
10:07
Speaker 1: are my Bruins at, man? This Bruins team is surprising
10:10
Speaker 1: me so far, right? I will say that. I'm not
10:12
Speaker 1: going to get my hopes up, but, you know, they're
10:15
Speaker 1: playing better than we thought they would. Seems like that's
10:17
Speaker 1: always the case. Last year, same thing. They were supposed
10:19
Speaker 1: to be one of the worst teams in the conference,
10:21
Speaker 1: and yeah, they made the playoffs. So, I don't know.
10:24
Speaker 1: They may fall off dramatically, though. Who knows? We might
10:27
Speaker 1: fade the Bruins in their next game, by the way.
10:29
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Whenever they return home from this road trip,
10:32
Speaker 1: maybe a fade spot for them. But anyway, Columbus, Minnesota.
10:34
Speaker 1: I don't want to take too long with all this.
10:37
Speaker 1: Minnesota's a public side, as expected. 82% of the tickets
10:40
Speaker 1: on them. 73% of the cash, so less of the
10:43
Speaker 1: money on them. Some of it has to do with
10:44
Speaker 1: the price. They're minus 180 something here they dropped a
10:48
Speaker 1: little bit from opening close to minus 200 so it
10:51
Speaker 1: looks like some real money is coming in on Columbus
10:55
Speaker 1: even though they're on the back-to-back but you know that
10:56
Speaker 1: the back-to-back scenario is gonna juice the lineup on the
11:00
Speaker 1: other team because the odds makers know that's an advantage
11:03
Speaker 1: to them too plus Minnesota is probably going to be
11:05
Speaker 1: a little bit juicier anyway because everybody knows they're the
11:08
Speaker 1: better team Columbus did have rest before yesterday they had
11:11
Speaker 1: a couple days off so it's not like the worst
11:14
Speaker 1: back-to-back scenario that you can find in hockey or whatever sport, hockey, NBA, whatever.
11:22
Speaker 1: You know, the money is saying to lean towards Columbus.
11:24
Speaker 1: Minnesota may have to look ahead to Edmonton. I guess
11:26
Speaker 1: I won't disagree with that. You can make like a
11:29
Speaker 1: plus one puck line out of it, I guess, and
11:31
Speaker 1: hope that Columbus can stay close in that one. The
11:34
Speaker 1: empty netter might wind up getting you in that one.
11:37
Speaker 1: I don't want to do it, but I guess that
11:39
Speaker 1: would be my opinion. Unfortunately, we have two big favorites
11:42
Speaker 1: in the two hockey games today. It's a price range
11:45
Speaker 1: that I just don't enjoy jumping in on really as
11:48
Speaker 1: far as the side. Sometimes with the favorite, you can
11:52
Speaker 1: get a little bit more creative. You could play them
11:54
Speaker 1: to win in regulation or something like that instead of
11:56
Speaker 1: making your own minus one puck line. When I say that,
11:59
Speaker 1: I mean split the bet, make two bets, make part
12:02
Speaker 1: of the bet on the puck line, part of it
12:04
Speaker 1: on the money line. And use like an odds calculator
12:07
Speaker 1: to tell you how much you should put on each
12:08
Speaker 1: side such that if it lands one, your whole bet
12:12
Speaker 1: will push. But some books actually offer the minus one
12:15
Speaker 1: and plus one as well. It depends on the book.
12:18
Speaker 1: But it might make more sense to make your own
12:20
Speaker 1: anyway if you have a bunch of books available because
12:22
Speaker 1: you can find the best number on each part of
12:24
Speaker 1: that bet because you don't need to make both bets
12:26
Speaker 1: at the same book. All right, Carolina and Calgary is
12:30
Speaker 1: the other game. This is one of the best teams
12:33
Speaker 1: in the league against one of the worst. So we
12:35
Speaker 1: know Carolina's going to be a huge favorite here. Carolina's
12:37
Speaker 1: on a roll here. I believe they're on a back-to-back.
12:40
Speaker 1: They won yesterday at Winnipeg, I'm pretty sure. So they
12:44
Speaker 1: continue to win. They've won seven straight games here. After
12:47
Speaker 1: starting out 0-1-1, they've won seven games in a row.
12:51
Speaker 1: We won playing against them in the first game of
12:53
Speaker 1: the season, by the way, with Florida. So there you go. But, yes,
12:56
Speaker 1: they played yesterday, beating Winnipeg. They had rest before that, though. So, again,
13:00
Speaker 1: I'll say I'm not really sure that the back-up Excuse me,
13:03
Speaker 1: the back-to-back is going to be that bad for Carolina
13:08
Speaker 1: because they had rest before the game yesterday. They will
13:10
Speaker 1: be switching back to Busse in net, though, and he
13:12
Speaker 1: was the losing goalie in both their losses. They've been
13:15
Speaker 1: mostly using Kochetkov as their better goalie, so we will
13:18
Speaker 1: see if Busse can handle the pretty anemic Calgary Flames.
13:25
Speaker 1: We'll see here. Calgary Flames. They did not play yesterday,
13:29
Speaker 1: so Calgary does have a rest advantage here. They just
13:32
Speaker 1: got blasted by the Vegas Knights in their last game.
13:35
Speaker 1: Calgary did finally get a win the game before that,
13:37
Speaker 1: but they have extra rest here. They have a couple
13:39
Speaker 1: days off. They are returning home from a road trip, though,
13:42
Speaker 1: where they went to Anaheim and Vegas, but it was
13:44
Speaker 1: a quick road trip Tuesday, Thursday, so I don't really
13:47
Speaker 1: consider that to be this road trip return spot where
13:50
Speaker 1: I talk about how that's a negative spot when a
13:51
Speaker 1: team has been away from home for a while. They
13:53
Speaker 1: come back home. distractions can come into play. You got
13:57
Speaker 1: to get back to what's going on at home, things
14:00
Speaker 1: to do. Maybe it won't be the case for Calgary here.
14:02
Speaker 1: I mean, they probably will not overlook the returning champion
14:06
Speaker 1: Carolina hurricanes here. Carolina is the public side here. Um,
14:11
Speaker 1: not surprising, even though it does surprise me that the
14:15
Speaker 1: public would be laying a money line like this, although
14:16
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if this is just the money line
14:18
Speaker 1: market or if this includes spread or whatever. I'm not
14:22
Speaker 1: entirely sure. Um, In fact, actually, you can look at
14:25
Speaker 1: the spread here, but it doesn't show what the money
14:28
Speaker 1: percentages are on it. And if you switch to specifically
14:32
Speaker 1: money line, it doesn't either. So that's interesting that maybe
14:35
Speaker 1: this is some sort of conglomeration of all those things.
14:38
Speaker 1: But I want to see specifically, like I'd like to
14:42
Speaker 1: see the percentages specific to each market, though. This is
14:45
Speaker 1: a free tool, though. It's OddsLogic. And if you pay
14:49
Speaker 1: for it, their tool is like super good, apparently. So
14:51
Speaker 1: maybe they do offer that in their paid.
14:55
Speaker 1: I don't have enough money, though. I don't have the
14:58
Speaker 1: money that I want to spend on it right now.
14:59
Speaker 1: I'm going to stick to my ability to read these
15:02
Speaker 1: things for now. 85% of tickets, 91% of the cash
15:06
Speaker 1: on Carolina. They're like a minus-2, 15 favorite here, basically. Again,
15:12
Speaker 1: I would probably slightly lean underdog here. I don't know
15:15
Speaker 1: if Carolina really has any big game upcoming, though. Let
15:18
Speaker 1: me see. I looked earlier, and I already forget. I apologize.
15:22
Speaker 4: I just.
15:23
Speaker 1: My brain doesn't retain these things anywhere. Yeah, they're only
15:25
Speaker 1: playing Vancouver next, so not a big deal there. They're
15:29
Speaker 1: playing a couple of really bad teams in quick succession here.
15:32
Speaker 1: You can get Calgary possibly even on the plus one
15:34
Speaker 1: and a half puck line at a possibly decent price there,
15:38
Speaker 1: so maybe that's the way I would lean there. Then
15:41
Speaker 1: we have the MLB game. My lean yesterday was Tampa
15:46
Speaker 1: first five, and they won the game, but surprisingly enough,
15:49
Speaker 1: they won in the later portions of the game, starting
15:52
Speaker 1: in the sixth inning. I liked them in the first five,
15:55
Speaker 1: and it was a 1-1 game at the end of five,
15:58
Speaker 1: so that would have been a push if you played
15:59
Speaker 1: it that way. Tampa Bay was able to win the game.
16:02
Speaker 1: Cleveland went with the bullpen game yesterday. They used Foster
16:05
Speaker 1: Griffin as their, like, bulk. Pitcher, if you want to
16:08
Speaker 1: call it that. They used an opener for an inning
16:10
Speaker 1: or two, and then Griffin came in and pitched up
16:13
Speaker 1: through probably into about the fifth inning or so. He
16:16
Speaker 1: went like a few innings. Cleveland used a bunch of
16:18
Speaker 1: bullpen arms, though, and Tampa really did as well. So
16:22
Speaker 1: that has me not really wanting to back the bullpens here,
16:26
Speaker 1: given that they're not really that rested after yesterday. But
16:29
Speaker 1: the pitching matchup looks like it's one of the better
16:31
Speaker 1: ones you're going to get in the series today here.
16:33
Speaker 1: This is a 2-2 series, so this is a big game.
16:36
Speaker 1: And I talk about how series that are tied like
16:38
Speaker 1: this really in any sport typically trend towards an under
16:42
Speaker 1: because teams kind of like to play it to the vest.
16:46
Speaker 1: They focus more on defense. Although in this case, baseball
16:50
Speaker 1: is a little bit different though from football, basketball, whatever, where... Defense, yeah,
16:55
Speaker 1: I mean, you might focus extra on your fielding, but
16:57
Speaker 1: you need your pitching to be good, too. But I
16:59
Speaker 1: think the pitching should be good from the starters here.
17:01
Speaker 1: Drew Rasmussen is pitching for Tampa. He is their ace.
17:05
Speaker 1: He was in the Cy Young running. 2.67 ERA. I
17:08
Speaker 1: should say he still is, I guess, because they haven't
17:10
Speaker 1: announced it yet, but it will be Schlittler. Rasmussen, 2.67 ERA,.
17:12
Speaker 1: 91 whip. He was really good on the road on
17:17
Speaker 1: the season, 2.47 road ERA. He's pitched 14 innings across
17:23
Speaker 1: two starts in the playoffs this season, and he has
17:26
Speaker 1: 17 strikeouts and only two walks, only nine hits allowed
17:29
Speaker 1: and two runs allowed, which were both solo shots from
17:32
Speaker 1: Cleveland the last time he pitched. In that game, it
17:35
Speaker 1: looked like he was getting a little bit tired, man,
17:37
Speaker 1: maybe because he threw over 100 pitches against the Yankees
17:40
Speaker 1: the start before that, but he had extra rest prior
17:43
Speaker 1: to pitching against Cleveland, though. because they swept the Yankees,
17:46
Speaker 1: so they had some extra time to rest, so I
17:48
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know what it was, but he
17:51
Speaker 1: didn't really throw more pitches than he's used to. He
17:53
Speaker 1: threw 91 against Cleveland, but he was just coasting through
17:58
Speaker 1: that game up until, I think he got into the
18:01
Speaker 1: seventh inning and allowed a home run, if I'm not mistaken,
18:04
Speaker 1: and then they had to take him out. He allowed
18:06
Speaker 1: two home runs, but one might have been in the sixth,
18:09
Speaker 1: and then the other might have been to open the seventh,
18:11
Speaker 1: and then they took him out, something like that, whatever
18:13
Speaker 1: it was, but I'm not too concerned by that. He's
18:15
Speaker 1: a really good pitcher, and he's typically really good against Cleveland.
18:19
Speaker 1: And even that start was still really good, obviously. 92
18:22
Speaker 1: at-bats from Cleveland against him, 24 strikeouts, 4 walks. Good
18:26
Speaker 1: ratio there. 196 batting average, a lot of 512 OPS.
18:30
Speaker 1: Rasmussen does well against him, so I think he should
18:33
Speaker 1: pitch well here. And he's an experienced guy. He's an
18:36
Speaker 1: experienced pitcher. which is going to be the knock on
18:40
Speaker 1: Cleveland's starter here, Parker Messick. He's younger, and he is
18:43
Speaker 1: not that experienced. This is his rookie season. I think
18:47
Speaker 1: he is also kind of in the Cy Young running.
18:49
Speaker 1: He's in the rookie of the year running, I think.
18:53
Speaker 1: I don't think they've announced that yet. 2.56 ERA, 1.06 whip,
18:54
Speaker 1: and no, he's not a.
18:58
Speaker 1: Child who broke his arm or whatever and now can
19:01
Speaker 1: throw a 100-mile-an-hour fastball. No. Or maybe. I don't know.
19:05
Speaker 1: Is that how he got this good?
19:06
Speaker 4: I don't know.
19:06
Speaker 1: I don't think he throws 100, though. But, yeah, he
19:08
Speaker 1: had good numbers on the season. 1.06 whip is good.
19:12
Speaker 1: He was a little bit worse at home, 2.9 home area,
19:16
Speaker 1: which is still good, though, obviously. He was shaky when
19:19
Speaker 1: he pitched against the White Sox in the playoffs. Looked
19:23
Speaker 1: like he had some nerves there. He was walking too
19:25
Speaker 1: many guys, but he pitched better against Tampa Bay last
19:28
Speaker 1: time out. He was a little bit inefficient still with
19:30
Speaker 1: his pitches, though, but he went five innings and didn't
19:33
Speaker 1: allow any earned runs against Tampa in his last outing.
19:36
Speaker 1: Tampa did score three unearned runs against him, though. Not
19:39
Speaker 1: necessarily his fault, obviously. The fielding did not help him, obviously,
19:44
Speaker 1: in that game. So you shouldn't put that all on
19:48
Speaker 1: him in that game, but he still had a couple
19:50
Speaker 1: of walks his walks have been a concern in the
19:52
Speaker 1: playoffs man he's got 11 and two-thirds 12 hits allowed
19:55
Speaker 1: eight walks very very concerning there that number 14 strikeouts
20:00
Speaker 1: is definitely solid though so what are we going to
20:02
Speaker 1: get out of him here man I think that he's
20:06
Speaker 1: going to be good, but he's been shaky in the
20:08
Speaker 1: postseason so far. Eventually, he's going to get used to it,
20:11
Speaker 1: but that remains to be seen.
20:14
Speaker 4: I don't know.
20:14
Speaker 1: He is back at home for this one, but he
20:16
Speaker 1: didn't pitch well in his first home playoff appearance either.
20:19
Speaker 1: His numbers against Tampa Bay are generally good, though. 92 at-bats,
20:23
Speaker 1: a 22-4 strikeout walk ratio, 228 average allowed, 529 OPS,
20:28
Speaker 1: similar to what Rasmussen's putting up against Cleveland. Cleveland's offense
20:34
Speaker 1: looks like they're kind of going downhill again here. Tampa
20:36
Speaker 1: does have a better offense here. Generally, I give Cleveland
20:39
Speaker 1: a bullpen edge, and maybe they do have the bullpen
20:41
Speaker 1: edge here, but they did use the bullpen game yesterday,
20:44
Speaker 1: so that would worry me. But I think their better
20:46
Speaker 1: relievers didn't really pitch in the game because they fell
20:48
Speaker 1: behind and I think decided to pretty much save some
20:51
Speaker 1: of them. So what do we want to do with
20:54
Speaker 1: this game? I'm not going to do it, but I
20:56
Speaker 1: think the first five under is probably the way to
20:59
Speaker 1: play this game, but you're going to be having to
21:00
Speaker 1: play it under three probably. The three and a halves
21:03
Speaker 1: are out there at some places, or you can probably
21:06
Speaker 1: choose it at different books, but you have to pay
21:08
Speaker 1: juice for it. You've got to pay like minus 140
21:11
Speaker 1: probably for it, which is, you know, it's not out
21:13
Speaker 1: of the question, but I think it's a little bit...
21:16
Speaker 1: pricey just to get from three to three and a
21:18
Speaker 1: half so i mean you could play the under three
21:21
Speaker 1: and you know i think that's pushing it a little
21:23
Speaker 1: bit if you want to do that i'm just saying
21:25
Speaker 1: i think the first five makes more sense because the
21:27
Speaker 1: bullpens got used yesterday so i don't know how much
21:30
Speaker 1: to trust these bullpens even though the starters might get
21:33
Speaker 1: you through a decent chunk of this game though the
21:36
Speaker 1: money doesn't really look like it's indicating towards the under
21:39
Speaker 1: though 89 of the tickets and 86 of the cash
21:40
Speaker 1: on the under So it looks like the market read
21:44
Speaker 1: is actually staying over in the full game, at least
21:47
Speaker 1: the six and a half. It's a low total, obviously.
21:50
Speaker 1: It has to be for a game like this. This
21:52
Speaker 1: is a good pitching matchup, at least in theory. But yeah,
21:56
Speaker 1: first five under I think is maybe the best approach
21:59
Speaker 1: in this game. I'm also going to lean Tampa in
22:02
Speaker 1: the first five, I think, because I think Cleveland still
22:06
Speaker 1: has a bullpen edge here just because of the which
22:09
Speaker 1: specific relievers didn't get used yesterday for them. I think
22:13
Speaker 1: Rasmussen has the upper hand in the starting pitching, though.
22:16
Speaker 1: He's the more experienced pitcher. He's been better in the
22:18
Speaker 1: postseason this season than Messick by a considerable amount, actually,
22:22
Speaker 1: even though they both have good matchup numbers here. I
22:24
Speaker 1: think Rasmussen's got the edge. 69% of tickets, 87% of
22:26
Speaker 1: the cash on Tampa. I would, yeah, lean Tampa first
22:32
Speaker 1: five here. They're about minus 130 something for the full game.
22:35
Speaker 1: So that price is going to go up. And in
22:37
Speaker 1: the first five, you're probably going to be looking at
22:39
Speaker 1: closer to minus 150. So if you do play the
22:42
Speaker 1: first five, you might have to knock that price down
22:44
Speaker 1: and actually lay the half run. And you need Tampa
22:47
Speaker 1: to actually be winning. after five to get that bet.
22:52
Speaker 1: Whereas the difference there is that if you play the
22:54
Speaker 1: money line and it's tied at the end of five,
22:56
Speaker 1: your bet will push. Whereas if you lay the half run,
22:59
Speaker 1: if it's tied, you'll lose the bet. But you're paying
23:02
Speaker 1: less to make that bet. So those would be my
23:05
Speaker 1: opinions on that. And that is it. Those are all
23:08
Speaker 1: the games today. There's no WNBA yet. NBA starts in
23:11
Speaker 1: a couple of days. Yeah.
23:13
Speaker 4: Yeah.
23:15
Speaker 1: Enjoy my rant at the beginning of the show. Hopefully
23:17
Speaker 1: that went well. Hopefully that was awesome. Oh, wait, I forgot.
23:21
Speaker 1: We got to do the NFL final market read. My
23:24
Speaker 1: plays today are going to be the Vegas Raiders plus
23:27
Speaker 1: five and a half, or if you can get six
23:29
Speaker 1: on it, obviously you could do that. It's not going
23:31
Speaker 1: to get to seven though. And the Dallas Cowboys plus
23:34
Speaker 1: one and a half. A lot of people not liking
23:36
Speaker 1: that one. This is the way to handicap, man. I'm
23:39
Speaker 1: telling you, situational angles, There are teams that look way
23:44
Speaker 1: too good one week, teams that look way worse than
23:47
Speaker 1: they really are in the same week. That's all I've
23:51
Speaker 1: got to say about that. Go watch my analysis on it.
23:54
Speaker 1: I gave you all my opinions, and I'm giving you
23:57
Speaker 1: exactly why I like these plays. Oh, Tampa did look
24:00
Speaker 1: good last week. Dallas didn't look good last week against Tampa,
24:03
Speaker 1: or Green Bay looked really good last week. Yeah. I know.
24:13
Speaker 1: That's why I'm making this play, because I'm fading what
24:15
Speaker 1: we saw last. You know what I mean? This is
24:18
Speaker 1: how the books win money from bettors, because bettors bet
24:21
Speaker 1: based on what they saw last, and I think you
24:23
Speaker 1: should do the opposite. That's what I think. Do I
24:26
Speaker 1: still have that clip? Let me see. Yeah.
24:30
Speaker 5: Yeah, I should do the opposite.
24:32
Speaker 1: If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite
24:35
Speaker 1: would have to be right.
24:40
Speaker 5: Yes.
24:42
Speaker 1: I will do the opposite.
24:44
Speaker 4: I used to sit here and do nothing and regret
24:46
Speaker 4: it for the rest of the day.
24:47
Speaker 3: So now I will do the opposite and I will
24:49
Speaker 3: do something.
24:53
Speaker 1: All right. I don't know what the rules are on.
24:55
Speaker 1: I don't want to get this copyright stricken though. I
24:57
Speaker 1: don't know what the rules are and how long you
24:59
Speaker 1: can have a clip going for, but yes, laughing orange.
25:04
Speaker 1: What's up, man? No, um, you're completely wrong about that. Um,
25:12
Speaker 1: I'll make sure to block you after this. You're not
25:14
Speaker 1: seeing the big picture at all. You're falling into their
25:18
Speaker 1: NPC distractions, sir. This is also not a political show,
25:22
Speaker 1: but yeah, you don't come into my show and call
25:24
Speaker 1: me a dumbass when I'm right. I'm right about everything, Mr.
25:29
Speaker 1: Laughing Orange. I'll put your name up there so you
25:32
Speaker 1: can be shamed because you're a fucking idiot. I'm more
25:36
Speaker 1: of a right winger than you are. I'm more of
25:38
Speaker 1: a right winger than everybody is. I'm right about what's
25:41
Speaker 1: going on. That's who controls immigration. And you know that
25:47
Speaker 1: because you're one of them. So get out of my chat.
25:51
Speaker 1: I will. I'm going to fucking block. Yeah, I will.
25:53
Speaker 1: Everybody fucking block Laughing Orange. Fuck this guy. We're out.
25:57
Speaker 1: I got to get this done. Make sure that my
26:00
Speaker 1: fantasy lineup needs to be set, by the way. And
26:03
Speaker 1: my issue is I want to play Mike Evans against
26:05
Speaker 1: the horrific... Yes, Calvin. Calvin, yes. Thank you, sir. I
26:12
Speaker 1: don't want to get nuked, you know, for all this. Yeah,
26:16
Speaker 1: because they're assholes. Dirty sock. Dude, I'm just going to
26:20
Speaker 1: stop even addressing these people in the comments. That's what
26:23
Speaker 1: I'm going to do. But yes, my fantasy team, I
26:27
Speaker 1: have a dilemma because I want to play Mike Evans
26:29
Speaker 1: against Washington's horrific defense, but it's a Monday night game
26:33
Speaker 1: and he hasn't practiced yet. He played with bad ribs
26:36
Speaker 1: and he had a huge game last week anyway, but
26:38
Speaker 1: you can't guarantee he's actually going to play in this game.
26:41
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? He probably will, but... He
26:44
Speaker 1: might not, so I think I have to play Pickens,
26:46
Speaker 1: even though putting a wide receiver up against Green Bay's
26:49
Speaker 1: decent pass defense is a different story. Green Bay's front
26:54
Speaker 1: seven is decimated, which, by the way, is another reason
26:58
Speaker 1: to play Dallas today. Green Bay's missing Micah Parsons and
27:01
Speaker 1: two of their other best defenders in their front seven.
27:04
Speaker 1: Their front seven's going to get obliterated by Javante Williams,
27:08
Speaker 1: who I also have on my fantasy team, by the way.
27:10
Speaker 1: But I might have to play Pickens too against Green
27:13
Speaker 1: Bay's fairly solid secondary just because I can't be in
27:19
Speaker 1: a situation where I wait until Monday to see if
27:21
Speaker 1: Mike Evans is going to play. And then if he doesn't,
27:24
Speaker 1: then what? I have to pick somebody up off the
27:27
Speaker 1: waiver wire? And I'll have basically nobody to drop from
27:31
Speaker 1: my team at that point? I can't even do that.
27:34
Speaker 4: So.
27:35
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I could drop one of my
27:36
Speaker 1: players that's on buy this week, but none of them
27:39
Speaker 1: are droppable, so I don't want to do that. Yes, sir.
27:46
Speaker 1: All right, what was I going to say? Oh, yeah,
27:47
Speaker 1: the final NFL market read here. You got my plays,
27:51
Speaker 1: Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. Jacksonville still remains a hugely public
27:56
Speaker 1: side in the game. It's coming up in 15 minutes.
27:59
Speaker 1: I'm still leaning Houston there. The market read... basically is
28:03
Speaker 1: agreeing with that I would say just because it's a
28:05
Speaker 1: fade of the public and there's not a huge cash
28:07
Speaker 1: percentage uh going towards Jacksonville by any means like I
28:12
Speaker 1: mean in in opposite of where the tickets are I
28:15
Speaker 1: mean uh New England's hugely public and more uh more
28:18
Speaker 1: of the money's against them so I remain leaning towards
28:20
Speaker 1: the Jets the market read is saying to fade Pittsburgh
28:24
Speaker 1: but that situation is telling me Pittsburgh in that game
28:27
Speaker 1: so those are my thoughts on that game Might have
28:29
Speaker 1: to fade the market read in that one. I still
28:31
Speaker 1: agree with Cleveland. There's no cash percentage disparity here, but
28:35
Speaker 1: Baltimore will still be the public divisional road favorite here,
28:39
Speaker 1: so I still like Cleveland in that one. The market
28:42
Speaker 1: read is still going against Chicago. I have a lot
28:45
Speaker 1: of issues trying to figure that game out. Chicago, Atlanta, man.
28:49
Speaker 1: You saw my breakdown on it. There's just a lot
28:51
Speaker 1: of factors that go both ways there. I was kind
28:54
Speaker 1: of leaning towards just what happened last week kind of
28:56
Speaker 1: had me looking at... in that one. So maybe I'll
29:03
Speaker 1: stick with that. I don't know. That one's a lot
29:05
Speaker 1: more difficult to figure out. The market read is pretty
29:07
Speaker 1: strongly indicating towards the Titans still, so I do agree
29:10
Speaker 1: with that one. Market read is indicating on Carolina, and
29:14
Speaker 1: there are some situational aspects of that game that do
29:17
Speaker 1: help them. To me, it just seems like the price
29:20
Speaker 1: has overreacted to the Hurts injury at this point, though,
29:23
Speaker 1: and I was kind of leaning towards Philly, but we'll see.
29:25
Speaker 1: What I want to do in my pick-ems, obviously these
29:27
Speaker 1: are games that are not making the card for me.
29:30
Speaker 1: The market read is still indicating towards the Saints. I
29:32
Speaker 1: do agree with that. Giants are a public side with
29:35
Speaker 1: less of the money on them. Same thing goes for
29:37
Speaker 1: the Rams. They're public with less money on them. I
29:40
Speaker 1: would lean Arizona. I agree with that. The public is
29:43
Speaker 1: still all over Buffalo, so that market read is still
29:46
Speaker 1: looking pretty good, I would say. As far as fading
29:48
Speaker 1: the public, there's no real market. indicator that there's like
29:52
Speaker 1: smarter money on Buffalo or anything like that because I
29:54
Speaker 1: don't think that's true still looks like the market is
29:57
Speaker 1: indicating that more of the money's on Kansas City and
29:59
Speaker 1: they're not as public as you would think so I
30:01
Speaker 1: still do lean to Kansas City even though that seems
30:03
Speaker 1: unlike me uh the market read is slightly tilted towards
30:07
Speaker 1: Dallas in that late game but my situational handicap on
30:10
Speaker 1: that screams Dallas so that's my favorite play And then
30:16
Speaker 1: The Market Read is saying San Francisco's public on Monday
30:18
Speaker 1: night with more of the money on them, but I
30:20
Speaker 1: don't know. I still think I would fade them if
30:22
Speaker 1: I was going to get involved in that game. I
30:24
Speaker 1: still don't really want to, though. Calvin, yes. I try
30:29
Speaker 1: to do all of that. Yeah. The situational stuff, behavioral analysis,
30:33
Speaker 1: but also, yeah, I'm trying to read the market as well.
30:36
Speaker 1: I try to incorporate everything, but I think I weigh
30:39
Speaker 1: the situation over the market a little bit. And, you know,
30:43
Speaker 1: I don't know. I want to get my, as many
30:45
Speaker 1: picks right as I can in my pools, you know? Uh,
30:48
Speaker 1: but obviously there are only certain plays that I think
30:51
Speaker 1: are good enough to bet. Usually those are going to
30:54
Speaker 1: be in line with all the things that I look for. Uh,
30:58
Speaker 1: That's why they're going to be best bets. And then
31:01
Speaker 1: I have my contest entry where I have to pick
31:03
Speaker 1: five games against the spread, and obviously three of them
31:05
Speaker 1: will be the plays that I had, including Denver, I mean,
31:09
Speaker 1: on Thursday. That was already one of them for me
31:10
Speaker 1: this week. I need to add two other plays. I
31:14
Speaker 1: think one of them is going to be Cleveland probably,
31:16
Speaker 1: and then the other one I'm kind of torn between
31:19
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Washington right now as far as the
31:22
Speaker 1: last one to put in that entry, but we will see.
31:26
Speaker 1: I appreciate the kind words, sir. You're a lot better
31:29
Speaker 1: than that agent orange. He's definitely an agent. That's going
31:34
Speaker 1: to do it, though. That's the show for today. I
31:37
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thanks, everybody. I need to get a better
31:39
Speaker 1: outro here, but I appreciate it. Let's see if all
31:43
Speaker 1: my changes that I'm making boost me. We're seeing a
31:47
Speaker 1: little bit of a boost already, so let's see. I
31:50
Speaker 1: did not. Mississippi Valley State. I mean, if one of
31:54
Speaker 1: their players gets arrested by ICE or otherwise, that might
31:59
Speaker 1: help their team, to be honest. Their team is notorious
32:03
Speaker 1: for being the worst team in all of Division I
32:05
Speaker 1: basketball every single year. But they have fun. If you
32:10
Speaker 1: watch their on-court stuff, the guy that handles the like
32:15
Speaker 1: the audio stuff for them in their arena and whatever
32:17
Speaker 1: he plays these ridiculous sound effects because it doesn't even
32:20
Speaker 1: matter there's nobody even in the arena you can go
32:23
Speaker 1: find clips of it online and whatever um you know
32:26
Speaker 1: it seems like they have some fun out there being
32:29
Speaker 1: you know the laughing stock of division one maybe they
32:31
Speaker 1: shouldn't maybe they should get serious uh their football team
32:34
Speaker 1: i think has actually had who played there's there's some
32:37
Speaker 1: nfl player that played there um So I think their
32:41
Speaker 1: football program is better than their basketball program, but I
32:44
Speaker 1: don't know. Yes, you have a good day as well.
32:52
Speaker 1: Ching Pang Fang, there's no way that was his name, right? Really?
32:58
Speaker 1: Is he like, I don't know, is he the next
33:01
Speaker 1: Jeremy Lin? We're going to have some.
33:04
Speaker 1: Ching Sanity?
33:06
Speaker 4: I don't know.
33:06
Speaker 1: I have no idea. Fame, though. It is Vampire Month.
33:10
Speaker 1: It is October. All right. Thanks, Dirty Sock. Calvin, I
33:14
Speaker 1: think you were the only two that I care about
33:15
Speaker 1: in the chat here. I apologize if I missed anybody
33:18
Speaker 1: else that I actually don't think is a huge asshole.
33:21
Speaker 1: That's going to do it. Got to get all the
33:23
Speaker 1: stuff up for this show. Let's win in the NFL here.
33:27
Speaker 1: We've got a few minutes left before this stupid London
33:29
Speaker 1: game kicks off. Peace, everybody.
33:35
Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
33:40
Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
33:42
Speaker 4: Let somebody know.
33:44
Speaker 5: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on.
33:55
Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold.
34:05
Speaker 1: On Let me pull you.
34:09
Speaker 5: Out That bad luck bites hard But it don't get.
34:16
Speaker 4: The crown Hold on Hold on, stay with me now
34:23
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo
34:50
Speaker 5: MUSIC PLAYS