Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Release The Flies, Raise The Prices: Ag Policy Gets Weird

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Release The Flies, Raise The Prices: Ag Policy Gets Weird · AG Bull

0:10
SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everyone.
0:11
SPEAKER_01: Tom Grassofi, Agbell Media, AgBOO Training.
0:13
SPEAKER_01: We got the one and only Mr.
0:14
SPEAKER_01: Wiesmeyer waiting behind.
0:16
SPEAKER_01: I dressed up.
0:17
SPEAKER_01: It's President's Weekend.
0:19
SPEAKER_01: I have the flag behind me.
0:20
SPEAKER_01: I'm not running for any office.
0:22
SPEAKER_01: I'm just running for my life.
0:24
SPEAKER_01: I can't wait for Mr.
0:25
SPEAKER_01: Wiesmeyer to tell us everything that's happened.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: He was so busy traveling.
0:29
SPEAKER_01: And word is he may have had the sniffles last week, so we weren't able to record.
0:34
SPEAKER_01: But he is alive and well, regardless of the rumors.
0:38
SPEAKER_01: They had him, the media was going wild for what happened to Jim Weissmeyer, but I can tell you in 30 seconds, he'll be right here.
0:44
SPEAKER_01: Stay there.
1:34
SPEAKER_02: Well, it wound up being not the COVID, not uh the flu, RSP or anything.
1:40
SPEAKER_02: Very bad cold.
1:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, you travel so much.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: It's I'm amazed you stay as healthy as you do.
1:46
SPEAKER_01: They say it's good to get out there though.
1:48
SPEAKER_01: Get get you know, those kids who never go to school.
1:51
SPEAKER_01: When little kids go to kindergarten, they get real sick, but by first grade they're all better.
1:54
SPEAKER_02: Well, and I'll be in the Ozarks Tuesday, Wednesday this coming week, the Missouri Pork Conference.
2:01
SPEAKER_01: Sounds good.
2:01
SPEAKER_01: How's the food there?
2:02
SPEAKER_01: I know you always judge things.
2:03
SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's always good in the drinks and stuff.
2:05
SPEAKER_02: Always good with the Missouri pork producers, absolutely.
2:08
SPEAKER_01: Let's not mess around here.
2:09
SPEAKER_01: We got a good list of stuff to do, and uh let's get into it.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: Let's start right here, Jim.
2:15
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
2:16
SPEAKER_01: How's Farm Bill 2.0 finally released?
2:19
SPEAKER_02: They released it about, let's see, four about an hour and a half ago.
2:24
SPEAKER_02: The text and the summaries, and we're not going to go through all that.
2:27
SPEAKER_02: There's nothing major, I don't think, that that's not in it that we haven't talked uh uh uh about before.
2:34
SPEAKER_02: What I want to talk about is what the next step is, because I don't think the votes are there on the house floor.
2:42
SPEAKER_02: They may not even be, I think they'll be able to get it out of the committee, but on the house floor, if it gets there, there's going to be about 40 Republicans who vote against this bill, Tommy.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: So that's why they do that, Jim.
2:59
SPEAKER_02: Well, just typically Republicans, that number just don't, the conservatives spending too much money, whatever, uh philosophy on programs.
3:08
SPEAKER_02: So that's why you usually have a bipartisan vote for any farm bill, but it's not usual nowadays.
3:18
SPEAKER_02: And so listen to the ranking member, Angie Craig, uh from Minnesota.
3:24
SPEAKER_02: She's going to run for the uh Senate, she'll be in a close primary in in Minnesota.
3:31
SPEAKER_02: Listen to what she says, uh, because if she continues to be very negative about uh what's in the Republican written Farm Bill 2.0, I wouldn't uh give this much odds.
3:45
SPEAKER_02: So that's kind of my bottom line.
3:47
SPEAKER_02: We need it.
3:48
SPEAKER_02: There's some some good things in there, the farm credit uh programs, etc.
3:54
SPEAKER_02: But I with this environment on Capitol Hill so surly, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
4:01
SPEAKER_02: So I just wanted to put perspective on that.
4:05
SPEAKER_02: And next week I'll be covering some of the summaries of the House House Republican bill, but I don't want to spend too much time on it, Tommy.
4:14
SPEAKER_01: Let's do the next one.
4:15
SPEAKER_01: Farm programs, Jim.
4:16
SPEAKER_02: We have a series here.
4:17
SPEAKER_02: USDA this week finalized the what we call the ELRP, the emergency livestock relief program, top-up payment, an additional 8.2 percent.
4:28
SPEAKER_02: Uh so that raises the total factor to 43.2 percent for for eligible 23 and 24 livestock disaster losses.
4:38
SPEAKER_02: Uh, producer does not have to do any action uh required besides uh filing by November the second this year.
4:46
SPEAKER_02: So this is this is cash flow.
4:49
SPEAKER_02: The next one is uh I was on a couple bridge, yes.
4:53
SPEAKER_02: Uh the Farmer Bridge Assistance.
4:55
SPEAKER_02: Remember, they said when they announced this the payments would come no later than February 28th.
5:03
SPEAKER_02: That's not that far away.
5:04
SPEAKER_02: We're not that far away at all.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: Today is, Jim.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: You know, today is it's the 13th.
5:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, all right.
5:11
SPEAKER_02: Now, yeah, I was on a uh a uh uh a Zoom call this week to uh to the Washington week rowers, uh, you know, good crowd.
5:21
SPEAKER_02: And somebody came on and a lady, and you know, very nice lady, and she said her checks with I guess FSA offices said they're not even going to be trained in time to get this out.
5:34
SPEAKER_02: I believe that.
5:35
SPEAKER_02: So I checked with USDA on that one, and here's what I was told.
5:40
SPEAKER_02: This is comes from an official quote, we are still on track for timely farmer bridge assistance.
5:48
SPEAKER_02: This is an extremely simple program with limited, if any, complexity.
5:54
SPEAKER_02: Our staff will be trained prior to the rollout on February the 23rd.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: So they're kind of signaling to me that this is gonna come out on the 23rd, and the FSA people will be schooled, if you will, uh at least a few days before that.
6:15
SPEAKER_02: And I don't think it's gonna be that complex either.
6:18
SPEAKER_02: So like the money is gonna run as soon as February the 23rd.
6:22
SPEAKER_01: And also, Jim, I know like when I filed my taxes last year, my accountant insisted I give them a check and fill out the paperwork to have the ACH form.
6:31
SPEAKER_01: We filed my taxes, and I don't know how the government was like, I extended them and we're closed, and the money just ended up back in my checking account because that ACH form.
6:40
SPEAKER_01: So I would imagine a lot of farmers have uh digital forms set up to plop that money right in a checking account, correct?
6:46
SPEAKER_02: Yes, absolutely.
6:48
SPEAKER_02: All right, let's have the conservation reserve program.
6:51
SPEAKER_02: USDA opened up a general and continuous CRP sign-up, but the acreage is near in the cap.
6:58
SPEAKER_02: So we've only we're only shy about 1.9 million acres, Tommy.
7:02
SPEAKER_02: So again, I don't want to spend too much time on this.
7:05
SPEAKER_02: I think US Congress will eventually take a look at that cap.
7:09
SPEAKER_02: Maybe they're gonna have to raise it.
7:13
SPEAKER_02: We'll see.
7:14
SPEAKER_02: But the bottom line here is at least they're opening it up, but not many acres are gonna come into that new because we have some maturing acres as well.
7:23
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
7:24
SPEAKER_01: Year-round E-15.
7:25
SPEAKER_01: This is a hot topic, Jim.
7:27
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, because by February the 15th, which is coming up, they're supposed to have legislation.
7:34
SPEAKER_02: This uh new coalition new coalition that they worked up in Congress in in order to, they think, appease the uh year-round E-15 lobbyists.
7:45
SPEAKER_02: But uh the naysayers to year-round E-15 are saying they have issues with this, Tommy.
7:53
SPEAKER_02: Fine.
7:55
SPEAKER_02: They want reform of the renewable fuel standard program.
7:59
SPEAKER_02: Uh so these are mainly the smaller refiners are saying this.
8:06
SPEAKER_02: Their concern is the large integrated oil companies often have the blending capacity and retail networks that generate rins, but the independent refiners frequently must buy rins on the open market.
8:19
SPEAKER_02: And when the rins spike, the smaller refiners say margins can really compress rapidly.
8:26
SPEAKER_02: So they want to they want to reform the program.
8:31
SPEAKER_02: Now, most people say that's not a valid argument that this is not a mandate, it's just offering as an option for year-round E15.
8:41
SPEAKER_02: So yes, sir.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna let you catch your breath, get a drink of water.
8:45
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna tell everyone about uh premium content.
8:48
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna mute your mic.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: You cough away over there, Mr.
8:50
SPEAKER_01: Weeksmeyer.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: He's getting healthy.
8:52
SPEAKER_01: He wanted to work so bad last week, but we wouldn't let him all right.
8:56
SPEAKER_01: Real quick, folks, we have premium content, www.agbull.com,$25 a month,$250 annually.
9:03
SPEAKER_01: Thanks to the new subscribers.
9:04
SPEAKER_01: Of course, Mr.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: Weismeyer's content is on the Ag Bull trading website.
9:09
SPEAKER_01: So if you want to go see previous Weissmeyer perspectives, obviously it's on YouTube.
9:14
SPEAKER_01: But as Jim puts out his dailies, just go to the AgBull website and you can see as fast as those come out, my team releases them there.
9:22
SPEAKER_01: And you you can join Jim's list.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: That's at the bottom, Jim's newsletter, Weissmeyer Gmail, or you can go to Agble.
9:28
SPEAKER_01: We're getting them out, and that is all free information.
9:30
SPEAKER_01: Of course, the premium content is pay for.
9:33
SPEAKER_01: And that those are other videos.
9:35
SPEAKER_01: Uh, we have some new, some really new, exciting people that are going to be starting in a week or two.
9:40
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to spill my hand.
9:41
SPEAKER_01: One episode we did yesterday that was premium content was the Land Talker, and Iowa land prices strike new all-time highs.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: If you'd like to see that episode, subscribe.
9:50
SPEAKER_01: $25 a month,$250 annually.
9:53
SPEAKER_01: All right, back to the show.
9:54
SPEAKER_01: I think he's coughed, hacked, got a sip of water.
9:58
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, but I do want to point out the positives of going to E15, year-round E15.
10:04
SPEAKER_02: It'll boost domestic ethanol demand, it'll reduce reliance on imported petroleum, and it'll support rural economies.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: So what's wrong with that?
10:13
SPEAKER_02: Eventually, they're gonna hopefully have the right vehicle up on Capitol Hill, some must-pass spending bill to say, okay, let's let's offer this.
10:24
SPEAKER_02: Because Tommy, we need increased domestic utilization to whittle down some of the corn uh carryover.
10:31
SPEAKER_02: So let's just hope this goes.
10:33
SPEAKER_02: But they're still warring between the different sides uh on this one.
10:38
SPEAKER_02: So uh I'm just I don't like the current odds, but I think the the lobbyists uh four year-round ethanol have their work to do, but they've done it before, so let's see them uh you know get it done eventually.
10:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, let's keep the optimism going.
10:58
SPEAKER_01: We had Jan Jobs and CPI report.
11:00
SPEAKER_01: That report was a little late because of the government shutdown for a few days, correct?
11:04
SPEAKER_02: It it was.
11:05
SPEAKER_02: But the January report from the administration's position was probably about as good as they possibly could get.
11:13
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
11:13
SPEAKER_02: Now, what that showed you was that the economy's better than most people think.
11:21
SPEAKER_02: And today we got this morning we got the consumer CPI report, consumer price index.
11:29
SPEAKER_02: And again, it showed price growth cooled to a 2.4 percent annual rate.
11:35
SPEAKER_02: That's the slowest rate of inflation since May.
11:39
SPEAKER_02: So that means that price pressures are easing as households continue to increase their wages above the rate of inflation, and that's the affordability angle, Tommy.
11:51
SPEAKER_02: So I think the White House will want to really brag on this one.
11:55
SPEAKER_02: I know Trump already did it today.
11:59
SPEAKER_02: The monthly increase was uh 0.2 percent.
12:02
SPEAKER_02: That's also modest, and it was below expectations.
12:05
SPEAKER_02: Now, the next one, Tommy, is what's the Fed gonna do about this?
12:09
SPEAKER_02: The next FOMC meet FOMC meeting, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, is March 17th and 18th.
12:17
SPEAKER_01: And this guy's still the boss, right?
12:19
SPEAKER_01: Powell?
12:20
SPEAKER_02: Jay Powell, yeah.
12:21
SPEAKER_02: And they they're not gonna and the market is fully expecting no change in interest rates.
12:29
SPEAKER_02: So after they cut interest rates three times last year, Fed officials are they're pausing further reductions.
12:36
SPEAKER_02: Now, when these reports came out this week, prior to that, the bond market was signaling they thought the first rate cut this calendar year would be June in the June 16th, 17th FOMC meeting.
12:54
SPEAKER_02: Now it could come a month later, July 28th, 29th.
12:59
SPEAKER_02: So it may take another month before the Fed starts lowering the rates.
13:04
SPEAKER_02: J Powell's uh term ends May the 15th, but this is a consensus building committee, so we're good, we're gonna have a lot of data between now and then.
13:16
SPEAKER_02: But right now, the US economy is showing 3%, 3.5% gross domestic product, and that's a pretty good thing.
13:26
SPEAKER_02: So we need to go from Wall Street to Main Street in this economy.
13:32
SPEAKER_01: And Jim, I popped up.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: The CME group has this nice tool, folks.
13:35
SPEAKER_01: It's free.
13:36
SPEAKER_01: If you're out there listening, send me a message and say, Yeah, thanks for telling me about that FedWatch tool.
13:41
SPEAKER_01: See, there it says 32 days, 21 hours, 55 minutes, 16 seconds.
13:46
SPEAKER_01: And the what Jim was saying about oh, they think it's here, they think it's there, that comes through all this prettiness, these little bars, right?
13:53
SPEAKER_02: Absolutely, and I showed you what the market has built in, and it changes all the time, as you know, Tommy.
14:00
SPEAKER_01: Like odds on a football game.
14:02
SPEAKER_01: They're favored by three points, they're favored by 23.
14:05
SPEAKER_01: That's what these bars are, and you know, Jim, options are no different than sports betting is no different than betting on corn.
14:11
SPEAKER_01: Someone makes the odds and you get to play your wager.
14:14
SPEAKER_01: So I want to pull pull that up.
14:15
SPEAKER_01: CME Fed Watch tool.
14:17
SPEAKER_01: Just Google CME Fed Watch.
14:19
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
14:20
SPEAKER_02: Next one.
14:22
SPEAKER_02: I think we have Cargill.
14:24
SPEAKER_01: Cargill.
14:25
SPEAKER_01: Yes, sir.
14:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, what happened here?
14:27
SPEAKER_02: Well, the the their the move, they said they're gonna plan to close their ground beef processing facility in Milwaukee.
14:35
SPEAKER_02: Uh that marks the end of more than two decades at that uh Westcont uh operations at the at the Wisconsin uh site.
14:42
SPEAKER_02: It wasn't kill facility.
14:45
SPEAKER_02: So that's one thing.
14:47
SPEAKER_02: But it's gonna eliminate 221 jobs.
14:49
SPEAKER_01: You hate to hear that see that.
14:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, hate to hear that.
14:52
SPEAKER_02: It's just it shows you again, it's coming at a time when the U.S.
14:55
SPEAKER_02: cattle herd uh remains uh at 75-year lows.
15:00
SPEAKER_02: So then it's a significant change in local manufacturing activity.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: Pretty wild.
15:07
SPEAKER_01: Now, this this headline here caught me off guard.
15:09
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna read it.
15:10
SPEAKER_01: Is USDA Secretary Rollins using political card to keep US slash Mexico border closed via New World Screwworm?
15:19
SPEAKER_01: Well, this sounds like some gossip here.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: What's going on here?
15:22
SPEAKER_01: Exclusive to me.
15:24
SPEAKER_02: All right, I made some calls this week, and I was surprised to find out, Tommy.
15:31
SPEAKER_02: A number of officials within USDA apparently are urging Secretary Rollins to open the border.
15:41
SPEAKER_02: She doesn't want to.
15:43
SPEAKER_02: And at least some people are telling me, oh, that's a political card.
15:47
SPEAKER_02: She thinks it's better politics to keep that border closed because if it's reopened and we do, god forbid, get a new world screwworm incident, uh, they would come at her.
16:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: Then she would be the the fall person, fall girl, right?
16:05
SPEAKER_01: She'd be the fall girl, and then that that's no way to go out.
16:09
SPEAKER_02: No, it's conjecture, it's something she probably wouldn't say publicly, but uh that's what I'm hearing.
16:16
SPEAKER_02: So I have to report it.
16:17
SPEAKER_02: Now, USDA has recently expanded the sterile fly offensive against that screw worm, Tommy.
16:24
SPEAKER_02: On Monday, they they they they they've announced the major step, completing that sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Moore Air Base in Edinburgh, Texas.
16:34
SPEAKER_02: She traveled to the Rio Grande Valley to highlight the project.
16:39
SPEAKER_02: So so they're continuing to take uh defensive action for sure.
16:45
SPEAKER_02: So uh, under that uh uh uh announcement that uh the flies are targeting outbreaks in northern Mexico will initially be dispersed in the Mexico facility, but this is also going to be released in the U.S.
17:00
SPEAKER_01: Jim.
17:01
SPEAKER_01: It sounds like we're living in a damn sci-fi movie.
17:03
SPEAKER_01: Release the flies, release the flies.
17:06
SPEAKER_01: When you were a kid, they probably had something like that.
17:09
SPEAKER_02: Well, here's we have discussed, and not many people uh know this unless they've changed their plan, and I don't think they have.
17:16
SPEAKER_02: When they do reopen that border, it's not gonna come the animals, they're not gonna flood in.
17:22
SPEAKER_02: They're gonna be very selective what states they allow them in, what states from Mexico to, uh further south.
17:32
SPEAKER_02: And also they're gonna have to go through a series of three, if not four, separate tests for New World Screwworm.
17:41
SPEAKER_02: That if they initially fail it, they can go to the next site, a separate site of testing.
17:47
SPEAKER_02: And if they fail that again, they're out.
17:50
SPEAKER_02: They're they're they're they're not coming into the United States.
17:52
SPEAKER_02: But if they pass, then they go to the next level of additional testing.
17:57
SPEAKER_02: So whenever we have that border reopened, and it's eventually going to be reopened, they they will have, I think, a legitimate plan in place to say, hey, look, we're we're guarding against a potential incident.
18:15
SPEAKER_02: Well, that's good.
18:16
SPEAKER_02: They have a plan.
18:16
SPEAKER_01: Let's look here.
18:17
SPEAKER_01: Trump, China, Trump Z summit, late March, early April.
18:21
SPEAKER_01: Soybeans continue to rock and roll this week.
18:23
SPEAKER_01: Look at those spreads, folks.
18:24
SPEAKER_01: Watch that July NOVE.
18:26
SPEAKER_01: Watch your front month soybeans versus your back.
18:29
SPEAKER_02: What are we in July now in beans?
18:32
SPEAKER_01: Oh, price check on IO2.
18:34
SPEAKER_01: I shut off my screens.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: I only shut off my screen, so I would not go home with any positions over the weekend.
18:41
SPEAKER_01: You go ahead and talk, I'll find out July again.
18:43
SPEAKER_02: Well, this is we had a pretty good rally in beans this week when when when when Trump uh indicated that he wanted uh additional uh so uh uh China to buy 8 million tons more soybeans this season on top of the 12 million metric tons.
19:01
SPEAKER_02: Then the South China morning post, and that's what got the market going, said that the uh summit will take place in China in late March or early April.
19:14
SPEAKER_02: And when I initially read the South China Morning Post newspaper in the wee hours of our morning in Eastern time, I saw that uh they they reported that it would include additional purchases of U.S.
19:27
SPEAKER_02: soybeans.
19:28
SPEAKER_02: Then by the time maybe three, four hours later, they took that phrasing out.
19:34
SPEAKER_02: So I don't know whether Chinese officials got to them or or what.
19:39
SPEAKER_02: Bottom line, uh, I think I believe that China will buy additional US soybeans, and you know that could carry your July futures into the$12 area, right?
19:53
SPEAKER_01: And you had asked, and I was like, how the heck am I going to get prices?
19:56
SPEAKER_01: I remembered I have the internet on my computer and I can share my screen.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: I went again to the CME website, Googled soybeans.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: Here we go.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: Let's read them.
20:04
SPEAKER_01: March soybeans, 1134, May 1149, July that Jim talked about 1161.
20:10
SPEAKER_01: I believe it traded as close as uh almost 1170 today.
20:13
SPEAKER_01: It went to 1167, 35 cents away from a 12.
20:17
SPEAKER_01: I like the way that sounds, but then take it to the crop we're getting ready to grow.
20:21
SPEAKER_01: Jim, the one we're establishing crop insurance on, Nove 26 soybeans, 1115.
20:26
SPEAKER_01: But I tell you, our viewers and listeners have sold a hell of a lot more beans in their career with a nine in front of them than 11.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: So maybe this is a good place to start selling hedging and protecting.
20:38
SPEAKER_01: This is just a uh suggestion that I had uh given my clients this week.
20:43
SPEAKER_01: And and many people were in the mood to uh hedge a few soybeans.
20:47
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you can't go bankrupt making money, it's my father.
20:50
SPEAKER_01: Well, they'll tell you they can't make money at that price, and that's right, but they don't know necessarily what checks the government's gonna give them next year because you have to add that to it.
20:59
SPEAKER_02: You have to add that to it.
21:00
SPEAKER_02: Absolutely, absolutely.
21:02
SPEAKER_01: So it's a shell game, as my friend Paul Nefer says.
21:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you're he calls it your break-evens.
21:07
SPEAKER_02: What?
21:08
SPEAKER_01: Well, everyone's break-evens different, yeah.
21:11
SPEAKER_01: Your break-evens like your weight.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: If everyone's weight's different, your weight's your problem, my weight's my problem.
21:17
SPEAKER_01: I'll say, Oh, when's that pill come in so we could take it?
21:21
SPEAKER_02: All right, but this is just not a soybean issue, so uh sorghum, my good sorghum friends.
21:27
SPEAKER_02: They are having a run-up in prices because they need it, because China is coming back to the U.S.
21:35
SPEAKER_02: sorghum market.
21:36
SPEAKER_02: For they love our sorghum for their liquor products, and they're having a little problem with Chinese corn crop.
21:44
SPEAKER_02: They are yeah, yeah.
21:46
SPEAKER_02: So I think there's gonna be some residual uh business in the months ahead for sorghum.
21:53
SPEAKER_02: So remember a couple of weeks ago we said don't get too down, their trade can give you some some price up.
21:59
SPEAKER_02: We're we're starting to see it, Tommy, and I like that.
22:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so we'll go from Trump.
22:03
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk Taiwan.
22:05
SPEAKER_01: U.S.
22:05
SPEAKER_01: and Taiwan finalize a trade deal.
22:08
SPEAKER_01: You know, I I didn't even know what the Taiwanese, I guess you would say, flag looked like, but it's a beauty there.
22:14
SPEAKER_01: Blue in the corner, lots of red, some type of sun popping up.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: Not bad.
22:18
SPEAKER_02: No, and it's a pretty good agreement for both sides, but especially the U.S., it's going to cut tariffs, boost market access for American products in Asia, and a lot of billions of dollars in the U.S.
22:30
SPEAKER_02: energy and technology projects.
22:33
SPEAKER_02: Now, Taiwan pledged to purchase more than$44 billion worth of liquefied natural gas and crude from the U.S., but they also pledged to mark to open up their market further to American goods, including meat products.
22:47
SPEAKER_02: So this is very good for beef and pork, dairy, wheat, etc.
22:53
SPEAKER_02: And they also committed to buy around$15 billion in American uh aircraft and parts.
23:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, like a Boeing deal and whatnot.
23:02
SPEAKER_01: Well, in civil aircraft.
23:03
SPEAKER_01: Civil aircraft.
23:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very good.
23:05
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: Well, we'll take it.
23:07
SPEAKER_01: Now let's stick with this.
23:08
SPEAKER_01: We're getting deals done.
23:09
SPEAKER_01: Now I listened to you and Mr.
23:11
SPEAKER_01: Chip Flory on AgriTalk today, and you said they're getting deals done.
23:15
SPEAKER_01: Here's another one.
23:16
SPEAKER_01: Sorghum included in U.S.
23:18
SPEAKER_01: India framework.
23:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I got a note.
23:21
SPEAKER_02: In fact, I got an email from the sorghum group saying, hey, we're so excited that sorghum is included in this tentative framework, US India.
23:32
SPEAKER_02: Now on AgriTalk, we did talk about is this ever gonna go the next steps and things like that.
23:38
SPEAKER_02: And we've seen in the past, Tommy, with India, it always takes not just time, but a long time.
23:44
SPEAKER_02: But I'm not gonna be able to see it.
23:47
SPEAKER_02: It's just India because of the sensitivity of trade politically within the country.
23:54
SPEAKER_02: The farmers over in India are very, very important.
23:59
SPEAKER_02: And Modi, their president, uh relies on the farmer vote to get elected and re-elected.
24:07
SPEAKER_02: And they didn't like some aspects of this tentative agreement because they they did open up to more U.S.
24:14
SPEAKER_02: products.
24:15
SPEAKER_02: Not the pull initially, it was U.S.
24:17
SPEAKER_02: pulses, which we needed, but then they kind of softened that approach once they saw the reaction.
24:24
SPEAKER_02: They had demonstrations within with throughout uh India on that one.
24:30
SPEAKER_02: But bottom line again, we're starting to see Tommy some additionality in these trade agreements when it comes to agriculture.
24:39
SPEAKER_02: We had to wait a while.
24:40
SPEAKER_02: It's been a long time since what April last year, once once the this uh process really got started.
24:48
SPEAKER_02: So that that's a good thing.
24:50
SPEAKER_02: And and I I think we're getting near the end where maybe we can get some stability in trade policy, and the market can look for other things, such as such as this upcoming summit.
25:03
SPEAKER_02: Uh Xi Jinping's gonna meet with uh Trump, it looks like up to four times this calendar year.
25:10
SPEAKER_02: Up to four times.
25:11
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I we're talking about President Trump meeting with the Xi Jinping, they're Chinese.
25:18
SPEAKER_01: He's president for life.
25:19
SPEAKER_01: That's not a bad deal if you could pull it off, huh?
25:22
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's true.
25:22
SPEAKER_02: That's true.
25:23
SPEAKER_01: Weismeyer's perspective, president for life.
25:26
SPEAKER_01: You can't vote me out.
25:27
SPEAKER_01: We're not leaving, as they say.
25:30
SPEAKER_01: But uh it is you could see the markets are liking this US-China playing nicer.
25:35
SPEAKER_01: Now, you keep saying things on this show and other shows that you think eventually, if Trump kind of gets his way, he'll lower uh the tariffs another 10%, the fentanyl tariff.
25:46
SPEAKER_01: Talk about that.
25:46
SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, because that I think they'll they'll talk about this in this upcoming either late March or early April summit.
25:54
SPEAKER_02: That's that 10%.
25:55
SPEAKER_02: And if and if both countries uh get away from their temper the remaining 10% fentanyl tariff, China has one on us and we have one on them.
26:05
SPEAKER_02: Well, if China can prove to Trump that they've taken action to try to ward against some of the all these chemicals coming over to make fentanyl, if they release that, uh if if they do away with that 10% fentanyl tariff, then U.S.
26:25
SPEAKER_02: commodities are competitive with Brazil, very competitive.
26:29
SPEAKER_02: See right now, we've got that 10% point albatross there.
26:33
SPEAKER_02: So that's something to really watch out for.
26:36
SPEAKER_02: And that just it doesn't just go for soybeans, again, sorghum, uh potentially corn, if if their corn crop is hurt.
26:44
SPEAKER_02: Now they have a quota on their on their on on their corn imports, so that's why the they're taking uh sorghum and and other feedstuffs from other countries.
26:54
SPEAKER_02: But watch watch that.
26:56
SPEAKER_02: I keep on saying that.
26:57
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you've been very uh you've been telling people.
27:00
SPEAKER_01: Okay, house, GOP.
27:03
SPEAKER_01: Rebuck, rebuke, rebukes, tariff on Canada, a little impact.
27:08
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, a lot of the stories I know the listeners and viewers probably saw all a house uh gave Trump a major defeat because they voted to overturn Trump's Canadian tariffs.
27:21
SPEAKER_02: Uh six Republicans broke rank, uh Bacon, Nebraska, Fitzpatrick, uh Pennsylvania, Heard, Colorado, Kylie, California, Massey, Thomas Massey, Kentucky, and New House, Washington.
27:36
SPEAKER_02: But my perspective, it's it's more uh noise because the measure faces steep odds in the Senate and an almost certain veto.
27:48
SPEAKER_02: If even if it did get to the uh to uh Trump's desk at the White House, he would veto it.
27:54
SPEAKER_02: So they wouldn't have the votes to override a veto.
27:57
SPEAKER_02: So, but some people say yes, but it's more symbolic, it signals a visible uh Republican trade differences now.
28:06
SPEAKER_02: That's true, there's no doubt about that, because the longer these tariffs go on, and the long as as long as it took to show some additionality, people are saying, look, is this worth it?
28:20
SPEAKER_02: Was this worth all that?
28:22
SPEAKER_02: Now the White House seems to think so.
28:24
SPEAKER_02: And now that we're starting to get some positives, but the bottom line on this one, they are not going to change by legislation Trump's tariffs on Canada.
28:35
SPEAKER_02: That'll have to come from Trump or the Supreme Court.
28:38
SPEAKER_01: Let me ask you a question about Massey.
28:40
SPEAKER_01: Is he what they call a rhino Republican in name only?
28:43
SPEAKER_02: Really?
28:44
SPEAKER_02: That that's what's so unusual with them.
28:47
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna have to He's the one who said he's gonna stop the new Fed chair from coming in.
28:51
SPEAKER_01: He was the first one to be like, ah, I'm not looking for it.
28:54
SPEAKER_02: And Tillis, too.
28:56
SPEAKER_01: I think I got him confused.
28:57
SPEAKER_01: Tillis.
28:57
SPEAKER_01: Tillis was that one.
28:58
SPEAKER_02: Thank you for the well, because he wants the Federal Uh Reserve case to go through the right.
29:03
SPEAKER_01: It was Tillis on that, but Massey.
29:07
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean he's a arch conservative in many areas, but he's a showboat as well, to be blunt.
29:15
SPEAKER_01: So let me re-ass your question.
29:17
SPEAKER_01: Is Tillis a rhino?
29:21
SPEAKER_01: He's a moderate.
29:23
SPEAKER_01: Good answer.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: All right, good answer.
29:25
SPEAKER_01: And he's not running for re-election.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: You probably wouldn't get re-elected.
29:29
SPEAKER_01: I see.
29:30
SPEAKER_01: I want to pop up a few more headlines and then this one.
29:32
SPEAKER_01: What's this, Jim?
29:35
SPEAKER_01: Endangerment ruling repealed.
29:37
SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's that's that's a biggie.
29:39
SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's a biggie.
29:41
SPEAKER_01: We're towards the end.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: We only have one more after this.
29:43
SPEAKER_02: Because they they uh they used the EPA repealed the night the 2009 finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well-being, and that's so-called endangerment.
29:58
SPEAKER_02: There's that word that formed the basis for the agency's case to regulate emissions from vehicles, oil and gas, power plants, uh, etc.
30:08
SPEAKER_02: And Lee Zeldon and Trump, when they announced this, they said it's the largest deregulatory action in American history.
30:19
SPEAKER_02: That's this picture right here.
30:20
SPEAKER_02: Yes, that'll save Americans$1.3 trillion with a T with a T.
30:27
SPEAKER_02: Looser fuel and emission rules will reduce vehicle costs by more than two thousand four hundred dollars per car in the future.
30:36
SPEAKER_02: Now, you think that's not big news?
30:39
SPEAKER_01: It is now the spin on it is they're gonna pollute our skies, Jim.
30:45
SPEAKER_02: Well, that's what the activists are saying.
30:49
SPEAKER_02: But the the repeal, though, Tommy, it's almost certain to face immediate core challenge.
30:54
SPEAKER_02: So we're gonna see if if this is upheld, if what they announce this week is gonna be upheld.
31:00
SPEAKER_02: And if it is, it's gonna sharply reduce the environmental protection agency's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions without new congressional legislation, and that's what basically EPA is saying.
31:15
SPEAKER_02: This should really come from Congress, not from an EPA uh edict.
31:20
SPEAKER_02: So, what what's the bottom line here?
31:23
SPEAKER_02: For industries ranging from energy to automotive manufacturing, for farmers who are watching fuel and input cost, this outcome could reshape federal environmental policy, Tommy, for years to come.
31:38
SPEAKER_02: That's how important uh this announcement is.
31:42
SPEAKER_02: And that's why I think you saw the bump out at the White House and and EPA administrator Lee Zelding, giving it the importance that uh uh it deserved.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: Now, this popped up when you were on with Chip today, and I know you noticed this headline Supreme Court's next chance to rule on Trump's tariff around the 20th, but you said really more the 23rd, 25th.
32:05
SPEAKER_01: Explain to everyone again, it's been a few weeks and a few months, why this is so important and do only in the way Mr.
32:11
SPEAKER_01: Weesma.
32:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm giving you a lot of lists here.
32:13
SPEAKER_01: I hope you're writing this down.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: This line is gonna tie into why he's getting all these other trade deals done so fast, correct?
32:21
SPEAKER_02: Yes, because it's giving him leverage, and of course, it's bringing in a chunk of money.
32:26
SPEAKER_02: So this ruling is gonna be a major one because it's gonna rule on the constitutionality of Trump's trade policy, and it's really uh ruling on the power of split between the executive branch and the legislative branch.
32:41
SPEAKER_02: Now, it could come as soon as the 20th, uh, that's when they kind of return, and the 23rd when they sit in session, but it could be a very complex ruling.
32:54
SPEAKER_02: It could just not be a simple black and white, oh no, it's unconstitutional.
32:59
SPEAKER_02: It could be, they could say, the existing uh tariff funds, and there's hundreds of billions of dollars in the in the hopper for this one.
33:08
SPEAKER_02: That remains as is, that the administration doesn't have to uh offer refunds on those, but henceforward they can't collect them.
33:16
SPEAKER_02: That's just one part one possibility of it.
33:19
SPEAKER_02: Now, the administration keeps saying they have other tools in their arsenal to continue what they're doing, but it'll just take longer.
33:28
SPEAKER_02: But we gotta keep saying the it from a business perspective, this will once we get that ruling, it will add event eventual stability to the trade policy arena because it's a black cloud over the trade policy right now that markets don't know which way to act, and that's just not in the US.
33:51
SPEAKER_02: Uh, foreign countries, EU, Japan, and others are watching for this.
33:56
SPEAKER_02: That's how important this upcoming Supreme Court ruling is going to be.
34:00
SPEAKER_01: It'll give us clarity.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
34:02
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's do it only the way you can.
34:04
SPEAKER_01: Your show, finish it up, leave us something optimistic before you finish.
34:08
SPEAKER_01: Go ahead and take a little break.
34:09
SPEAKER_01: But I had so many people come up to me at Catalcon and say how awesome you are.
34:13
SPEAKER_01: They said how awesome you are, which kind of made me angry.
34:15
SPEAKER_01: No one said telling me I'm like you.
34:17
SPEAKER_01: They're like, that Jim Weissmeyer's awesome.
34:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, yeah.
34:20
SPEAKER_02: I hear it on you when I go out, when I go out.
34:24
SPEAKER_02: I was in a farm credit council in Orlando, Florida.
34:28
SPEAKER_02: I was at the sugar cane conference in Baton Rouge, uh, Louisiana, had such a good time and ate really good meals there.
34:37
SPEAKER_02: Red fish, by the way, it was delicious.
34:40
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
34:40
SPEAKER_02: And then I went through Houston, Denver, all the way up to Palm Springs, California to be at the Curb uh meeting with the crop insurance industry.
34:52
SPEAKER_02: And a lot of people there said that they're listening and viewing the podcast.
34:57
SPEAKER_02: So that's a good thing.
34:59
SPEAKER_02: And I ended it by my presentation, as I always do, Tommy, with uh positives, and we've seen it.
35:06
SPEAKER_02: Now I just want to say some of the things we've been talking about over the last month or so, we're starting to check them off.
35:15
SPEAKER_02: The bidding for the acres, I think, is already starting between corn and soybeans.
35:21
SPEAKER_02: We've got the summit coming up between President Trump and Xi Jinping, and you're seeing the market sensitivity of that.
35:30
SPEAKER_02: You're seeing Trump encourage uh Xi Jinping for China to purchase more U.S.
35:38
SPEAKER_02: soybeans.
35:39
SPEAKER_02: You're seeing China need more sorghum because their corn crop uh is down for several reasons.
35:48
SPEAKER_02: We've seen a series, and we went through some of the Taiwan, Indonesia is the other big one that's going to be coming up.
35:57
SPEAKER_02: New trade agreements that's starting to show some additionality for the US uh uh ag sector, including the meats.
36:07
SPEAKER_02: And that those are all good news.
36:11
SPEAKER_02: Now we have to kick the domestic utilization in.
36:16
SPEAKER_02: We talked about still the hurdles ahead for year-round E15.
36:20
SPEAKER_02: So that's an open-ended issue right now that we're gonna have to monitor Congress.
36:26
SPEAKER_02: They're off next week.
36:27
SPEAKER_02: But the 45Z program, the sustainable aviation fuel, uh, farmers and the agrib, the soybean processing sector, the corn processing sector, they're geared up for this tax and program called 45Z.
36:45
SPEAKER_02: That'll increase domestic utilization.
36:48
SPEAKER_02: And when you do that, Tommy, that's value added because you'll you'll crush for the oil.
36:55
SPEAKER_02: And now we're into something.
36:57
SPEAKER_02: Now we're now we're in a process where that's more jobs oriented, it brings in the processing plants.
37:04
SPEAKER_02: We're we're near a soybean processing capacity now, so it'll encourage the uh additional uh uh at least give the signal to increase our soybean production processing capacity.
37:19
SPEAKER_02: All those are good things.
37:20
SPEAKER_02: Now it's not everything's rosy, but those are all pretty good things, and I think you're seeing it not only in the cash market, but in the futures.
37:28
SPEAKER_01: That's Mr.
37:29
SPEAKER_01: Jim Wiesmeyer leaving us with the optimism.
37:32
SPEAKER_01: Jim, I'll see you next week in a week after that.
37:35
SPEAKER_01: We're we're gonna be on the road together in in central Illinois.
37:39
SPEAKER_02: In Peoria, Illinois.
37:41
SPEAKER_02: At the Strom Farm, right?
37:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
37:45
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and I'm gonna start putting that in my daily there.
37:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Peoria, Illinois.
37:50
SPEAKER_02: In fact, I just made the hotel reservation.
37:53
SPEAKER_01: So Peoria is beautiful this time of year, Jim.
37:56
SPEAKER_01: March 4th and 5th.
37:57
SPEAKER_02: I think that the meeting is March the 5th.
38:00
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll get it up.
38:01
SPEAKER_02: And then I'll be in Nashville the the following uh week at Stone X.
38:06
SPEAKER_02: Oh X Stone X is coming up.
38:09
SPEAKER_02: So travel ahead.
38:10
SPEAKER_01: All right.
38:11
SPEAKER_01: We'll see you, Mr.
38:11
SPEAKER_01: Weesmeyer.
38:12
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
38:12
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.