Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part Two | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets

Transcript

Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part Two | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:03
  Welcome everybody to Part 2 of our Big 12 common previews as
• 0:08
  targeting winners. I am Darren and up here in once
• 0:11
  again Chile, New York states join 5 peak back in the states.
• 0:16
  How we doing man? You adjusted back to being an
• 0:19
  American or not yet? No, no, I'd like to leave.
• 0:22
  I mean, it's very expensive here.
• 0:24
  It's kind of cold here, although it's actually kind of nice
• 0:26
  today. But yeah, I I'm ready to go
• 0:29
  back, but I am back in Michigan. I'm back here for, well, getting
• 0:33
  ready for the season and all this good stuff in these
• 0:35
  previews. But yeah, excited to be here,
• 0:37
  excited to do this one. One of my favorite teams is in
• 0:39
  this group, so I'm excited to talk about them.
• 0:42
  And thanks to whoever invented the alphabet, we will be saving
• 0:45
  them for last. Which is exactly what to say.
• 0:48
  You might notice we we are down 1 Tim a little bit under the
• 0:51
  weather, but in true team fashion, he set up all these
• 0:55
  graphics for us, put them in order for us because Pete and I
• 0:59
  technologically are like nursery school age.
• 1:01
  So hopefully our content won't be good because me trying to
• 1:06
  figure out these slides is no doubt going to be a train wreck.
• 1:10
  But in true degenerate fashion, Tim did fire off a bit and we
• 1:13
  will get into that later on. So you ready, man, to knock out
• 1:17
  the last half of this conference?
• 1:19
  Let's do it. All right, man, let us start
• 1:23
  with the Kansas J and again, these odds, Tim made these up.
• 1:26
  He is in Florida. The only app he has access to is
• 1:28
  Hard Rock. We've got some FanDuel numbers
• 1:31
  here, so if there's a big difference, we will let you know
• 1:34
  right here. Kansas plus 3000 win the
• 1:36
  conference. FanDuel does have plus 3500 if
• 1:39
  you feel like betting them there.
• 1:40
  Over under a wind. Total set at 5 1/2.
• 1:45
  Pete, what do we think about The Jayhawks this season?
• 1:48
  Yeah, I mean, it's a team that has been relatively solid and I
• 1:52
  would expect that to continue, right.
• 1:54
  They're not really sneaking up on anybody.
• 1:56
  Not that they're world beaters or anything, but they're pretty
• 1:58
  solid team. They're dangerous, you know,
• 2:00
  playing them any time is, is, is can be absolutely concerning,
• 2:04
  especially at home. So they are well organized.
• 2:07
  I mean, I, I like the coach. I like the way he keeps his team
• 2:10
  structured. So I do like the team.
• 2:14
  What I don't love so much is that that schedule can't be
• 2:18
  right. So it's got Utah twice in a row
• 2:19
  from Octo. Yeah, it's like we got an.
• 2:21
  Extra line at the bottom there, but yeah.
• 2:23
  If they play out Utah twice in a row, they're going to lose both
• 2:26
  games. But you know, I mean, that's
• 2:27
  probably not going to go well for them.
• 2:29
  But what I really don't like, I think this is actually a pretty
• 2:32
  decent team. I mean, I think they're they're
• 2:35
  solid. I like the coaching.
• 2:36
  I like the structure. I think they're, they're, you
• 2:38
  know, the overall depth is pretty good.
• 2:40
  I do not like the schedule. I, I mean, other than the
• 2:43
  beginning fine, but after that, I mean, at Utah, that's a
• 2:47
  problem. We talked about Baylor last time
• 2:49
  that Baylor's going to be a problem.
• 2:51
  I think at TCU could be a problem.
• 2:54
  I well, not to tip my hand too much, but at, at Rich Rod could
• 2:58
  be a problem at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, which I'll talk
• 3:01
  about when we get to them, could also be a problem.
• 3:04
  So I like the team. I hate the schedule.
• 3:07
  I I think these Rd. games are a real problem.
• 3:10
  So that 5 1/2, I mean, I toyed with it.
• 3:12
  I kicked it around. I was like, where can I find 6?
• 3:15
  And I really had a problem trying to find six That that was
• 3:20
  the issue. I think the schedule is just
• 3:22
  just tough with for, for a, a pretty solid team.
• 3:27
  They're not great, but they're a solid team.
• 3:28
  So that's my thoughts in Kansas. I, I would bet them if their
• 3:32
  schedule was better, but the schedule is just not really
• 3:34
  leaning into it. So those are my thoughts.
• 3:36
  Yeah, This is a team that historically on the road is not
• 3:39
  very good defensively. The last three years or so,
• 3:42
  they've given up just under 27 points a game.
• 3:44
  There's been no improvement on that on that side of the ball.
• 3:48
  A lot of defensive production returning.
• 3:50
  So I'm not really sure if this defense is going to get any
• 3:53
  better. And obviously offensively this
• 3:55
  team went as Jalen Daniels went and now he's gone.
• 3:58
  So I would expect a slight regression from them
• 4:02
  offensively. And you had mentioned this
• 4:04
  schedule. I mean all five of those Rd.
• 4:05
  games, they're so easily losable because you don't know what
• 4:09
  you're going to get out of this offense.
• 4:11
  Throwing a non conference game there against Missouri and then
• 4:14
  that overseas game, London against Arizona State.
• 4:18
  So this is basically just to break it down again, like 5 year
• 4:24
  old is like, well, they were every on the last two years.
• 4:26
  They were A5 win team with Jalen Daniels.
• 4:29
  What? What are they going to be
• 4:30
  without him and with? The schedule, I don't know.
• 4:32
  Yeah, it's not good. Yeah, yeah.
• 4:34
  So I'm predicting a rough season here for The Jayhawks.
• 4:40
  DraftKings thankfully came out with some win totems yesterday,
• 4:44
  so if you do like the under at 5 1/2 like I do, you can get a
• 4:48
  very nice and juicy plus 1:45. So I'm rolling with you under
• 4:53
  here on The Jayhawks. 1 unit under 5 1/2 wins and obviously
• 4:58
  no interest in the conference stuff.
• 5:01
  I mean, on that schedule, I mean, I, I love that bet because
• 5:04
  I, I really don't see five wins there.
• 5:07
  So I, I, I think you're safely knocked on something safely
• 5:11
  under. But yeah, unless they come out
• 5:13
  and somehow they're world beaters, which we don't expect
• 5:15
  them to be, that this is just not their year.
• 5:18
  That schedule's brutal. I didn't even talk about at
• 5:20
  Kansas State, which is, is brutal as well.
• 5:22
  So yeah, I mean. Let's we're going to get into
• 5:25
  them in a in a second and they they seem to be an up and
• 5:28
  upcoming team. Everybody likes the head
• 5:29
  coaching hire that they made. And so without further ado,
• 5:33
  let's head into their cross state rivals here at Kansas
• 5:36
  State plus 2250 to win the conference.
• 5:39
  That's a much better number there at Hard Rock than what we
• 5:41
  currently have at FanDuel. Posted win total 7 1/2 heavily
• 5:46
  juiced to the over here. So what are we thinking with
• 5:51
  Avery Johnson besides his excellent hair?
• 5:54
  Get Kansas State to to the conference title game and what
• 5:58
  do you think about this win total?
• 6:00
  Man, I mean, that's for a new coach, a whole new structure
• 6:05
  that's pretty lofty. That said, I think this team is
• 6:09
  actually going to be pretty good.
• 6:10
  So I I I can see where that's coming from.
• 6:13
  So I'm not disputing the number. It's just when you're changing a
• 6:16
  head coach like that and you're not like an elite school.
• 6:18
  Kansas State, yeah, you know, they're on the verge of being
• 6:21
  but not quite elite and that that's a little concerning.
• 6:24
  So that's it, right? I mean, look at their schedule.
• 6:28
  I think their schedule plays better.
• 6:29
  That's the schedule we just looked at.
• 6:31
  I mean, you know, Colorado's going to be hot garbage.
• 6:34
  You know, Oklahoma State at home I think will be an interesting
• 6:38
  game. So I do like Oklahoma State, but
• 6:39
  that should be a good game at TCUI.
• 6:42
  Mean so if you look at the schedule, there's there's quite
• 6:43
  a few wins you can you can check off here as opposed to the last
• 6:46
  one we looked at. This is a good roster
• 6:49
  competitive most weeks. That's what I would expect here.
• 6:52
  You know, so I think there's in terms of being safe, I mean in
• 6:56
  terms of a number of wins, you know, I can probably pick out
• 6:59
  seven wins here that are pretty safe.
• 7:01
  So the question is what's after that?
• 7:04
  We'll have to see how it plays out the first couple weeks.
• 7:06
  I don't I don't have a bet here, but I am intrigued by this team.
• 7:09
  I'm intrigued by the coaching staff.
• 7:11
  I'm intrigued where I can go. I do like their players.
• 7:14
  So, you know, I think there's certainly some upside here.
• 7:17
  I mean, at 7 1/2, you know what I lean over probably don't have
• 7:23
  a bet here, but I, I, I do like this team and I think they're
• 7:26
  they're, I think they made the right coaching hire.
• 7:29
  I really do like this coaching hire.
• 7:30
  So I think longer term going forward, I think it's going to
• 7:33
  be excellent. So that's my thought.
• 7:35
  Yeah, I I took a quick peek at this schedule and I was, I did
• 7:37
  not see BYU, Utah or Texas Techs, but I was like, well, you
• 7:41
  can't really ask for more if you're in this conference as far
• 7:44
  as schedule goes. You meant yeah, offensively they
• 7:47
  should be really good. All all the skill position
• 7:49
  players are coming back. Only concern offense line only
• 7:53
  brings back one starter. So you do need to get that unit
• 7:55
  to gel sooner rather than later. But that beginning schedule, you
• 7:59
  certainly have some time to work with it.
• 8:01
  They're probably not even a potential loss until that
• 8:04
  October 10th tilt. Again, Houston.
• 8:07
  And again, that's a home game defensively.
• 8:10
  You know, I do have some questions.
• 8:11
  They've never been a solid defensive team, like middle of
• 8:14
  the pack, only three defensive starters returning.
• 8:17
  So hey, you know what we we love when the defense isn't that
• 8:19
  great. Not a lot of people are
• 8:21
  returning to it. So maybe they'll improve a
• 8:23
  little bit there. But yeah, the head coaching
• 8:25
  higher is great. They say he should be able to do
• 8:28
  wonders with Avery Johnson getting back to to his 2024
• 8:32
  level of production. But yeah, the juice is so high
• 8:35
  on over 7 1/2 I couldn't do anything with it as well.
• 8:39
  But I agree. I mean, this isn't, I think this
• 8:42
  is at least an 8 win team, possibly 9 potentially playing
• 8:47
  in the Big 12 title game. There's a group of maybe like 5
• 8:51
  or 6 teams that I think could could potentially meet or even
• 8:55
  replace Texas textured things fall apart for them.
• 8:58
  But yeah, I leaned to the over as well.
• 9:00
  I have no bet here 'cause that juice look at like -162 at
• 9:04
  FanDuel, Gateway Island. I don't want to go.
• 9:06
  So. All right, so yeah, we do both
• 9:08
  like Kansas State, but yeah, if you want to go over that win
• 9:11
  total, wouldn't blame you. But yeah, juice a little high
• 9:13
  for us here. All right, moving on.
• 9:17
  How about them Cowboys? Oklahoma State Your.
• 9:20
  Favorite team? Point O however you want to
• 9:23
  refer to them +3000 to win the conference.
• 9:26
  Looks like a Fanduel's got him at plus 3300 over under set at 5
• 9:31
  1/2. This is a FanDuel.
• 9:32
  At least this is heavily juiced to the over here. 1:00 and 11:00
• 9:37
  last season. Probably not doing that again.
• 9:41
  Is this team getting back to a bowl game?
• 9:43
  What do you think? That's a good question.
• 9:45
  I mean, you spent two years of therapy after betting on this
• 9:48
  team a couple years ago. So, you know, coming around, I'm
• 9:50
  sure you're feeling maybe slightly better.
• 9:52
  I don't know if there's a team of therapists working you
• 9:54
  through that, but it's probably OK. 5 1/2 wins.
• 9:58
  I mean, I love the over here, except you already mentioned it.
• 10:03
  The juice is just just absurd. I mean from the FanDuel side, I
• 10:07
  think it's like 164 even DraftKings like 140 or
• 10:12
  something, which I still think is pretty, pretty juicy.
• 10:16
  I like this team. I really, really wanted to bet
• 10:19
  them here for this over. I just don't like the Jews.
• 10:22
  The juice doesn't make any sense to me.
• 10:23
  I like the coaching change. I like what they're doing here.
• 10:25
  I like I think that this is a team that could be on the
• 10:28
  ascension here over a couple years.
• 10:31
  I I think that the schedule plays in pretty well for them
• 10:35
  for that over. So and there's a lot of factors
• 10:38
  in play here that would suggest, you know, a team that's going to
• 10:42
  be on the ascent, good coaching staff, decent player structure,
• 10:47
  schedule plays in really well for an over and there's a lot of
• 10:51
  very positive things here. What's so obviously?
• 10:54
  So where's the juice? I mean, it's it's it's speaking
• 10:56
  to all that, right? It's saying it's seeing the same
• 10:58
  thing we are, which is, yeah, there there's a lot of
• 11:01
  opportunity upside here and you're going to have to pay for
• 11:03
  it and you're going to have to you're going to have to eat that
• 11:05
  juice if you want to. So I didn't feel that good about
• 11:09
  it. I really didn't.
• 11:10
  I think, I mean, I like it. I think this team is good.
• 11:12
  I I think that there's a lot of upside with this team.
• 11:15
  Honestly, I went through the schedule just looking through
• 11:18
  like all the games here. I mean, you know, early on, you
• 11:23
  know, I think they can get four wins pretty pretty easily here
• 11:27
  if you look at the schedule, right?
• 11:28
  Tulsa, Murray State, UCF and Colorado, likely losses.
• 11:31
  There's four of them here, right?
• 11:32
  Oregon, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech.
• 11:35
  So this leaves you sitting at essentially 4 and 4, right?
• 11:38
  Theoretically. So what do you need?
• 11:39
  You need 2 out of four to get over, and that's West Virginia,
• 11:44
  Houston, Arizona State and Kansas.
• 11:46
  Can they win two of those? Yes, they can.
• 11:49
  Are they going to win at Rich Rod?
• 11:50
  No, they're not. But they could have went to the
• 11:52
  other three. Yes, they could.
• 11:53
  So is this a team that could absolutely get the six and over?
• 11:57
  Yes. I just don't think the juice is
• 11:58
  worth it. So that's my thought here.
• 12:02
  You're up. Yeah, actually I kind of took a
• 12:04
  peek at the other way because, you know, once everybody from
• 12:06
  North Texas went and as soon as mess maker committed there, I
• 12:11
  just feel like that juice is so baked into all the hype.
• 12:14
  I hear me out for a case for the under.
• 12:17
  OK. Plus 134 and the juice is the
• 12:20
  only reason I I thought. Of well, sure, it's intriguing
• 12:23
  at that number, right? Yeah.
• 12:24
  I mean, not offensively, yes, they're going to be a million
• 12:26
  times better. They probably had the worst QB
• 12:29
  room in the country last year. So obviously they're going to be
• 12:33
  100 times better offensively. Yes.
• 12:36
  Defensively, this team stumped last year.
• 12:39
  OK, nobody in the Big 12 gave up more points than them.
• 12:42
  Only Colorado gave up more yards than them and fine, you want to
• 12:46
  bring over your entire North Texas team.
• 12:48
  They kind of suck defensively also.
• 12:50
  So you had talked about those four swing games.
• 12:53
  West Virginia could could certainly be a loss at Houston
• 12:57
  could certainly be a loss. You don't know what Qatar, BOLI
• 13:01
  and Arizona State are going to look like at this point.
• 13:05
  I can't totally say that this is a six and six team.
• 13:09
  I mean, yeah, they, they should beat Tulsa.
• 13:11
  Yeah, we we all know they lost to Tulsa last year at home.
• 13:15
  You know they're going to revenge.
• 13:16
  Game they're going to, they're going to win Tulsa.
• 13:19
  Would be a revenge game, but I mean, Oregon and non conference,
• 13:23
  that's probably not going to go well at West Virginia.
• 13:26
  I mean, you look at that, that left column that, you know, they
• 13:28
  could easily have two, yeah. They could be where they got
• 13:32
  Tulsa, Murray State, UCI. They could be 3 and 2 going into
• 13:35
  the second-half of their schedule.
• 13:37
  Houston, they could lose Kansas State, they could lose Texas
• 13:39
  Tech, they'll probably lose. And Arizona State becomes that
• 13:42
  game, whether whether they're going to hit that or not.
• 13:46
  I just think with all the hype baked in, I think you can get a,
• 13:50
  you know, obviously having some nice juice on the under 5 1/2.
• 13:55
  I kind of looked at that just to kind of, you know, play the
• 13:58
  other side of it here. You know, much, much like with
• 14:02
  Kansas State, I mean, they have a defense that that you can't
• 14:04
  completely trust. And when your defense is not
• 14:07
  that good, it really puts so much pressure on the offense to
• 14:11
  come away with points like every single drive.
• 14:13
  And you know, that just doesn't happen.
• 14:15
  So I don't have a bet either way.
• 14:18
  I totally get where you're coming from, but I just kind of
• 14:21
  saw that nice plus number, looked at the under and I'm
• 14:24
  like, God, would that be the dumbest thing in the world to to
• 14:28
  throw a unit on that? I don't think it.
• 14:34
  I didn't do it, but you wouldn't have to twist my arm to convince
• 14:38
  me that this is a 5 and 17. Yeah, it's interesting, right?
• 14:42
  This is a really good discussion, right, Because we
• 14:44
  are talking about how the juice is is kind of leading our bets,
• 14:48
  right, Meaning that you might think something very strongly.
• 14:51
  I think that the over on this team is obvious, whatever you
• 14:54
  might think, but the juice might make you think that.
• 14:56
  Well, that's great. But clearly everybody else
• 14:59
  thinks so too. So maybe I don't want to go
• 15:00
  there in this case. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting
• 15:03
  because I do feel pretty strongly that they can get the
• 15:08
  six. I do think they'll be at Arizona
• 15:10
  State. I, I, I, you know, so I do think
• 15:13
  but but right, maybe not right. And if things play the wrong
• 15:17
  direction, if the right person gets hurt or whatever the the
• 15:20
  heck happens, that juice is pretty enticing on the bottom
• 15:23
  side there. And so sometimes the juice can
• 15:25
  lead you toward a bet that you maybe not we're going to that
• 15:29
  that could be the case. And I, I agree with you.
• 15:31
  I mean, it's enticing. I wouldn't do it because I don't
• 15:33
  think that's going to happen, but it is enticing.
• 15:37
  It really is. Yeah.
• 15:37
  See, I don't think it's going to happen either.
• 15:39
  But I just think with all the all the hype that they've
• 15:41
  already been getting since, you know, Mr. Baker and Eric Morris
• 15:44
  went over there, I just thought, you know what, maybe now's a
• 15:47
  good time to jump on the other side of that.
• 15:49
  And you know, I, I agree with you that Arizona State game
• 15:53
  could could be the swing game because I don't think they're
• 15:56
  losing at home to Kansas, but. And if they get better through
• 16:00
  the year, which I would expect they're going to do with a new
• 16:02
  regime and all that, they're going to get better.
• 16:04
  I I think that Kansas game at the end of the year is going to
• 16:06
  be interesting too. It's it's at home.
• 16:08
  I mean, I think they could win that game.
• 16:10
  I mean that's that could be interesting.
• 16:12
  So intriguing team, right? Just yeah, it's like right on
• 16:16
  that border. It's really intriguing.
• 16:18
  We'll see what happens. But yeah, it's you could go
• 16:20
  either way on this thing. Just eating that juice.
• 16:22
  On the upside, man, that's that's, that's a lot.
• 16:25
  Yeah, definitely the most intriguing team coming into this
• 16:27
  season for the Big 12, I think. All right, God, love me some of
• 16:33
  this team there. All right, TCU, baby.
• 16:36
  The Horn Frogs a few years removed from a national
• 16:38
  championship appearance plus 2500 to win the conference that
• 16:45
  that number did entice me a little bit over under set at 6
• 16:49
  1/2. Very much juice to the over
• 16:51
  here. I this was my second bet and I
• 16:58
  did cross it off due to the juice.
• 17:02
  I was hoping when DraftKings came out maybe I could get like
• 17:05
  a -, 120 but no such luck. I do have a lean to the over
• 17:09
  here. I kind of like put this team is
• 17:12
  bringing what? What do you think about the
• 17:14
  armed frogs this year? What do you think?
• 17:16
  Is there any chance that this could potentially be a contender
• 17:19
  for the conference? I mean if things roll the right
• 17:21
  way. I mean do.
• 17:23
  You if they roll the right way, but when I show that schedule,
• 17:26
  you look at November and I wouldn't blame you if you got
• 17:29
  scared off. Yeah, I mean that this offense
• 17:31
  should be rolling, right? They're going to.
• 17:32
  They should be scoring. I would expect that.
• 17:34
  So what is the defense going to do?
• 17:36
  That's the big question here. But yeah, I mean, I think this,
• 17:40
  I mean, if you look at this schedule, yeah, I mean, it's
• 17:44
  it's intriguing. This is a really intriguing
• 17:46
  team. I don't have a bet here, but I
• 17:48
  but I like where you're going with this.
• 17:49
  I mean, I think this is a team that has, I mean, they're
• 17:51
  starting off what in in North, in in Dublin, playing UNC
• 17:56
  interesting game. I think that I think that's a
• 17:59
  winnable game for them for sure. And a little bit of national
• 18:02
  exposure being in one of those games I think is good.
• 18:05
  So I think there's some things that will help them.
• 18:07
  Grambling's going to be a win, I don't think a whole lot of UCF.
• 18:11
  So I think that that could be a win.
• 18:13
  Are you start to look at some of these games and Baylor's a
• 18:15
  problem. West Virginia, once again, I
• 18:17
  don't know. Yeah, it's intrigue.
• 18:20
  I mean, if things play out the right way and Kansas maybe is
• 18:25
  not that good, who knows? We'll see what happens there.
• 18:29
  Yeah, I mean, this, this is a team that could potentially end
• 18:33
  up in the championship game. I could right it.
• 18:36
  This is a weird conference. We talked about it last week,
• 18:38
  right? This is a conference where
• 18:40
  there's so many teams in this middle area that which one is
• 18:43
  going to like come out and which ones are going to fade.
• 18:47
  It's really hard to tell. But this team has got some of
• 18:50
  the components where they could they could do something here.
• 18:52
  So it's really interesting to see what they do.
• 18:55
  Yeah, I am dying to see what this team looks like post Josh
• 18:59
  Hoover. They brought in Jayden Craig,
• 19:02
  Harvard transfer who was was excellent at Harvard.
• 19:05
  But I always worry about a guy from I, I worry about a group of
• 19:12
  five guy coming up to a Power 4 conference.
• 19:14
  So I worry even more about, you know, somebody coming from
• 19:17
  Harvard. However, he was excellent at
• 19:19
  Harvard. But I think the next thing they
• 19:21
  did, I mean, they extended Sunny Dykes.
• 19:24
  I don't know if that was the greatest thing ever, But the
• 19:26
  offensive coordinator from Connecticut, we all know how
• 19:29
  good Connecticut was. They were surprisingly good last
• 19:32
  year. Their quarterback, almost 3500
• 19:34
  yards, 28 TDs to only one pick. They had a running back, Cam
• 19:39
  Edwards, over 1200 yards, 15 touchdowns.
• 19:42
  And they had the NFL draft ready to go.
• 19:45
  Ready to go, guys. Skylar Bell, who had 101
• 19:47
  catches, almost 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns.
• 19:50
  Gordon Sammis is the offense coordinator's name.
• 19:53
  He came over from Connecticut after Moore left for Colorado
• 19:56
  State. I cannot wait to watch this
• 19:59
  North Carolina game and see what these guys look like
• 20:01
  offensively. I think they're going to be OK
• 20:04
  Defensively. They did lose a lot of their
• 20:07
  linebacking core, which kind of sucks.
• 20:09
  They don't really get to the quarterback lot.
• 20:10
  They only had 24 sacks last year.
• 20:13
  The two linebackers they combined for, six of them,
• 20:15
  they're gone. So.
• 20:17
  The whole defensive line is coming back.
• 20:19
  I would love to see them get a little more pressure on opposing
• 20:22
  QBs, but I don't think the loss of Hoover is going to be that
• 20:28
  big a deal. I agree.
• 20:30
  I agree with that. Yeah, I mean, they've got
• 20:32
  they've got some nice skill pieces to to work with here.
• 20:35
  So. But then I got to November.
• 20:39
  Yeah. Well, that's that's tough.
• 20:42
  Because I was going through the schedule just like you.
• 20:44
  Wow, they could be undefeated going against BYUBYU always
• 20:47
  struggles when they go to TCU. So as much as I we need them to
• 20:51
  win that game for our future bets.
• 20:54
  It wouldn't surprise me if BYU struggles there.
• 20:56
  But then like, you know, the road game against Bear, like you
• 20:59
  said, could be tough. The West Virginia, yeah, I mean,
• 21:03
  at Arizona's going to be tough Kansas State and Utah's going to
• 21:06
  be tough at Texas Tech. Is every one of those capes is
• 21:09
  tough? I mean, yeah, it's.
• 21:11
  Like can the season end on October 31st?
• 21:13
  That would be great. But like you said, can they can
• 21:19
  they win one of those home games, Kansas State and Utah?
• 21:22
  Could they go to Arizona and win?
• 21:24
  Maybe. Yeah, maybe.
• 21:27
  Yeah, I don't discount that. Yeah, they certainly could.
• 21:29
  They have the talent to do it. I think they could.
• 21:31
  Sure. So it's interesting that, but
• 21:33
  that second-half of the schedule is just rough.
• 21:35
  I mean, that's that's the issue with TCU is that, jeez, I
• 21:41
  wouldn't want that schedule. That's no.
• 21:42
  That scared me away. Like I said, Jaden Craig
• 21:44
  supposedly good, but like, you know, yeah, I I always just
• 21:47
  started thinking negatively. All right, well, if you were
• 21:48
  that good, but why is it now you're, you know, you're up to
• 21:53
  this level, some school should have got you well before that.
• 21:56
  So we'll see. I mean, we remember Tim's
• 21:59
  favorite player. What the hell was his name?
• 22:02
  Gio Lopez. He went from a group of five
• 22:04
  school to the ACC and he was a disaster.
• 22:07
  That did not go well, no. That went very, very bad.
• 22:10
  This guy coming from Harvard, he's going to be smart.
• 22:13
  You would think so. I would think smartest.
• 22:15
  Guy on the field. Right, I would think he can read
• 22:17
  defenses. I would think he can do some of
• 22:19
  those things, which Gio clearly could not do last year.
• 22:23
  So at least that right, If he's got a decent skill set, which he
• 22:26
  does have, if you go back and watch his tape, he's a he's a
• 22:28
  good player and he brings that with him.
• 22:31
  I mean, in the right system, I mean that could that could work
• 22:34
  very well, right? I mean, just let him like get
• 22:37
  the ball out quick, like put him in a position to to be
• 22:40
  successful, which I'm hoping they do.
• 22:42
  And he he very well could be. So we'll see.
• 22:46
  Yeah, there's a lot of nice games on week 0 actually lining
• 22:49
  up, but for for the purposes of of this, you know, this show and
• 22:54
  fun, I could not wait to see the TCUUNC game because.
• 22:58
  That's going to be fun. I'd have no, I, my, my feeling
• 23:00
  of UNC is the same as last year dumpster fire.
• 23:03
  So we'll see how that goes when we're not there yet, but I, I
• 23:06
  think they can go in there and just pummel UNC.
• 23:08
  I think they're very capable of doing so.
• 23:10
  So we'll see how that goes. All right, moving on halfway
• 23:14
  through, do we even need to discuss this?
• 23:18
  I mean, they're like minus what happened to my.
• 23:21
  There we go. They're.
• 23:22
  A favorite by 100 miles, at least. 120, geez, God damn.
• 23:28
  And this is even worse at Vandal.
• 23:29
  It's like -140 I think to win the conference win total, 11
• 23:35
  1/2, if you think they're going undefeated in the regular
• 23:37
  season, you can get nice plus money on that.
• 23:39
  So there is that. I mean, yeah, they dominated the
• 23:45
  portal again. They lost a ton on defense, but
• 23:47
  replaced a fair amount of it. They weren't really good at the
• 23:50
  quarterback position. They obviously addressed that
• 23:52
  with the best quarterback in the portal.
• 23:54
  Depending on whose rankings you use offensively, they should be
• 23:58
  better. Defensively, they may be not as
• 24:01
  good, but they're still going to be better than the majority of
• 24:03
  the teams in the conference. The schedule is pathetic.
• 24:06
  There's no BYU, Houston or Utah on it.
• 24:10
  Arizona comes to them, God is there.
• 24:15
  I mean, are these guys a lock for the for the title game at?
• 24:19
  Worst, I don't know. I don't know.
• 24:22
  I mean for the in the conference, sure, probably.
• 24:24
  But there's that number, right? 11 1/2.
• 24:27
  Yeah. Man I man, I don't.
• 24:35
  I mean someone who has to. Go right, I mean, but it's like.
• 24:39
  I mean, obviously there's no point We're a betting show,
• 24:42
  right? There's no point in betting on
• 24:44
  them to win the conference. It just it doesn't make any damn
• 24:46
  sense where there's no money to be made.
• 24:48
  It doesn't make any damn sense. So forget that that over, under,
• 24:51
  OK, go where you have their schedule, 11 1/2 wins.
• 24:55
  They got to get 12 wins to go over.
• 25:01
  I don't, I don't like that. I I think there are Losable
• 25:05
  games, not that their schedule's all that ridiculously difficult,
• 25:10
  but there are losable games here.
• 25:11
  They're going to Baylor, they're going to Oklahoma State, and
• 25:14
  their plan was for Jenna and Holmes.
• 25:15
  That's probably a win, but whatever.
• 25:17
  I'm. But still.
• 25:17
  I mean, could they lose to Baylor?
• 25:19
  Yeah, they could at Baylor. Could they lose to Oklahoma
• 25:23
  State on the road? That's possible.
• 25:27
  TCU, if they're good enough at the last game, could they win
• 25:29
  that game even there? Maybe.
• 25:32
  I don't see a clear path to 12 wins here.
• 25:35
  I mean, so if I was going to bet anything with Texas Tech, it
• 25:39
  would be the under. I just think they're going to
• 25:41
  stumble. I don't think they're that
• 25:43
  consistent. I, I don't like the way they
• 25:46
  played later in the year, last year.
• 25:48
  I, I just, I don't think they stepped up what they needed to.
• 25:52
  So I think there are some, some, some issues with this team
• 25:55
  structurally. I'm not sure what the hell that
• 25:57
  is, but I was going to play anything.
• 25:59
  I'd play the under here because I think they will stub their toe
• 26:02
  and all they need to do because it's 11 1/2 is stub their toe
• 26:05
  once and I think that's probable.
• 26:10
  I think those two weeks, November 14th and 21st, those
• 26:13
  two games in a row is tough even for a team this good.
• 26:17
  That's tough coming out of Oklahoma State.
• 26:19
  Even if they win and go to Baylor and have to perform at
• 26:23
  Baylor like that, I think is challenging.
• 26:25
  I think that's a potential problem.
• 26:26
  So I like the team. Obviously they are the far and
• 26:30
  away, you know, leader in this conference.
• 26:31
  Their schedule is not that difficult.
• 26:33
  Not a big surprise that they're the far and away leader, but if
• 26:37
  you're going to bet anything, the over under, I would consider
• 26:39
  the under because I think that is interesting.
• 26:42
  Those last three games, are they going to win all three?
• 26:45
  I don't think they will. I think they'll go 2 and one and
• 26:47
  that could lead to that under. So that's where my thought is on
• 26:50
  this. The only thing the only issue I
• 26:53
  have with that is the under is so heavily juiced.
• 26:55
  Because the level. Half is plus once.
• 26:57
  Again. Right.
• 26:58
  Yeah, because the number is so high.
• 27:00
  What? Would you think about betting
• 27:04
  them to actually win the conference like Hard Rock?
• 27:07
  We shows -120 fanduel's -140 I, I don't have DraftKings up.
• 27:11
  I don't know what that is. Because we know as we get closer
• 27:15
  to the season, your magazines are going to come out, There's
• 27:19
  going to be more preview shows. It's going to be a Texas Tech
• 27:22
  love fest. That number could get worse.
• 27:26
  Now you can be looking at some one fifties, one 60s if you have
• 27:30
  access to Hard Rock and you wanted to jump on -120 right now
• 27:34
  for the conference. I mean, because of the juice
• 27:37
  wouldn't make sense, right? Because this is the expected
• 27:42
  winner of the conference. I just don't like betting on
• 27:45
  expected winners because there's so much pressure and everybody's
• 27:50
  aiming at them, and to me that's just a recipe for disaster.
• 27:54
  So yeah, the juice makes sense. Winning the conference,
• 27:58
  obviously everybody's got them obviously as a favorite by far.
• 28:03
  I don't like the betting angle on that at all It just I don't
• 28:07
  know I just this is the non bet to me with this team all
• 28:10
  together. I just.
• 28:10
  Oh, I agree, I'm just saying because if you remember last
• 28:13
  year, everybody was like Clemson this, Clemson that and every
• 28:16
  week the juice on Clemson win the conference got -120 -, 130
• 28:21
  and they were a train wreck. So I'm just thinking if you're
• 28:24
  going to, if you want something where you don't want ridiculous
• 28:26
  juice, maybe that -120 and just. That's not bad.
• 28:31
  That's not bad. That number's not.
• 28:34
  Horrible. So I can't touch this team man.
• 28:36
  I mean something happens to sores me.
• 28:38
  You have just like 1 fluke somewhere.
• 28:41
  And yeah, that November schedule could is is very tricky.
• 28:43
  So yeah. I better, better places to put
• 28:47
  your money, right. We have so many teams and so
• 28:49
  many opportunities to bet here over like the next 6-6 months,
• 28:53
  whatever, 3, whatever, four months, five months, whatever it
• 28:55
  is. We're going to be talking about
• 28:56
  all these previews. There's so many better places to
• 28:58
  put your money. I just wouldn't put it here.
• 29:00
  I just I don't see the upside here.
• 29:02
  Yeah, to everything needs to go right, And that's just not, not,
• 29:06
  you know, we need to sweat that out every week, all right, Our
• 29:09
  last CFB dude, college football trip.
• 29:13
  Oh, Nope. He didn't put those in
• 29:14
  alphabetical order. I not bad, it's all right.
• 29:18
  That's fine. We'll stay with Utah.
• 29:19
  We're good. We went to a high school in
• 29:22
  upstate New York. We we didn't really know the
• 29:24
  alphabet. We don't know.
• 29:25
  What the hell again. Hey by the way.
• 29:27
  Because. Tim was a music major, so This
• 29:30
  is why we get this. He can't add, he's can't
• 29:35
  alphabetical order. It doesn't work I.
• 29:38
  Mean, to be fair, they both start with you.
• 29:40
  I mean so at least. We I bet that that's about as
• 29:42
  far as it can go. First letter that's.
• 29:44
  OK, baby steps. Tim, we hope we're not asking
• 29:46
  too much. All right, let's talk about the
• 29:50
  Utah Utes 7 to 1 to win the conference.
• 29:53
  Fanduel's actually got 9 to 1, so if you are a believer in the
• 29:56
  utes you can get yourself a nice number at FanDuel here.
• 29:59
  Win total 8 1/2. Slightly juiced to the over 11
• 30:03
  win team last year. Everybody left for Ann Arbor.
• 30:09
  I have doubts. What?
• 30:13
  What say you? Well, yeah, I mean, I'm very
• 30:17
  happy that Kyle and his whole posse are at my Wolverines right
• 30:20
  now. I'm very excited about that.
• 30:22
  That doesn't do Utah a lot of a lot of good.
• 30:25
  So I do also have my this is a good team.
• 30:29
  Let's just be clear, right? This is a team even with the
• 30:33
  people leaving and all that, this is a team that's been very
• 30:36
  good at having talent and recruiting talent and it's been
• 30:41
  a stable, solid team. Now how much of that is Kyle?
• 30:44
  How how much of that I don't know.
• 30:46
  So that's where my doubts come from when you have a a coaching
• 30:50
  change of this magnitude, when I say this magnitude, somebody
• 30:53
  who's been there for so flippin long like this, this this
• 30:58
  program was his baby, right? And so he leaves wherever he
• 31:03
  goes is irrelevant. He's out.
• 31:05
  Wow. I mean that's you choose to
• 31:08
  fill. That is a massive change in a
• 31:11
  program. And, and as good as this team
• 31:13
  has been consistently, it's been a pretty good team.
• 31:18
  Yeah. You cannot expect a team to just
• 31:21
  continue on with a massive change of that magnitude.
• 31:24
  I just, I can't see that. So I don't know what to do with
• 31:28
  this team. And that's why I don't have a
• 31:29
  bet here. I I, I, I mean, I like Utah.
• 31:32
  I'd like to see them continue to be successful.
• 31:35
  I don't think their schedule is horrendous, Ray.
• 31:38
  The schedule is tolerable, average down the middle, maybe
• 31:43
  lesser than down the middle. It's not a bad schedule.
• 31:46
  So for a team that's going through massive change like
• 31:49
  that, to get a schedule like this, I think is helpful.
• 31:53
  So I do think they could be. I think they're going to be
• 31:56
  good, but do I think they're going to be the same?
• 31:58
  No. And yeah.
• 32:00
  I just didn't know what to do with them from the betting
• 32:02
  perspective, just with Kyle gone and his whole team gone and
• 32:05
  players gone and everything else.
• 32:07
  Like I don't like betting on teams that just have that
• 32:09
  massive of a change at one time because you just don't know what
• 32:13
  they're going to do. You just don't know what's going
• 32:15
  to happen. You think you might know they
• 32:17
  could have hired, you know, best college football coach in
• 32:21
  history or something and brought him in there.
• 32:23
  At the end of the day, I still don't know, right?
• 32:26
  I still just don't know how it's going to change, especially in
• 32:28
  year 1. That's what my concern is.
• 32:30
  Year one, don't know what's going to happen.
• 32:32
  So I'm out. But I think the team is actually
• 32:33
  going to be pretty decent. But the betting is for me is
• 32:36
  just. Yeah, I don't.
• 32:38
  Know yeah, initially with, with, with low juice like -128 at
• 32:42
  FanDuel to go over this win total I, I could see a nine and
• 32:47
  three team here. But you already mentioned the
• 32:49
  coaching you know this Morgan Scaly guy, he's been with Utah
• 32:54
  for like the last 20 years, right?
• 32:57
  I mean, is he like, OK, it's finally my time, I'm going to do
• 33:00
  things my way, or am I just going to keep it the way
• 33:03
  Whittingham did and just, you know, yeah, you have no idea how
• 33:07
  he's going to. How and which is better?
• 33:09
  I'm not sure where the better. Is it his way or to stay with
• 33:11
  Kyle's way? I don't know what the better
• 33:13
  solution is, so I don't know. I mean, Kyle's had success, man,
• 33:16
  you, you would hope if you're a Utah fan, this guy doesn't
• 33:18
  change a whole lot. But the one thing I mean now we
• 33:20
  love Devin Damir. He's one of our favorite players
• 33:23
  on the show. OK.
• 33:25
  So you guys took his offensive coordinator?
• 33:29
  Yeah, right. Again with you.
• 33:31
  Whole new system, right? The only reason I think that
• 33:35
  could be detrimental to him now they have the office part here
• 33:38
  from Utah State. I believe they scored a ton of
• 33:41
  points too. So maybe it's not terrible.
• 33:44
  But this was also Dan Beer's coordinator the year before when
• 33:47
  they were both at New Mexico together.
• 33:49
  So, you know, I don't know if Dan Beer knows anybody else like
• 33:53
  he knows Jason Beck. And now he's gone.
• 33:54
  So I I wonder if this maybe effects him negatively to at
• 34:00
  least to get start now again, you look at the whole left side
• 34:02
  of that schedule. Come on.
• 34:04
  That's that's all. I mean, they'll be fine.
• 34:07
  They'll be fine. I mean, that's a.
• 34:09
  Great chance to figure it out. And then even, you know, you'd
• 34:12
  go to Colorado half the right. Side too.
• 34:15
  I mean, come on, Colorado, Cincinnati.
• 34:16
  I mean, that's fine, whatever. Yeah, but I mean, you know, the
• 34:20
  Houston game can be tough. They look good.
• 34:22
  The BYU game is obviously going to be tough going to Arizona and
• 34:25
  going to TCU because, you know, back-to-back Rd. games, never
• 34:28
  easy to win both of those, especially when you got some
• 34:31
  potential quality opponents there.
• 34:32
  So and then again, West Virginia, you know, we all love
• 34:35
  us and some West Virginia on this show.
• 34:37
  I just don't know. There's a lot of head coaching
• 34:40
  uncertainty, like you said, I think the Ampere maybe takes a
• 34:43
  step back and he was actually statistically really good.
• 34:46
  A lot of people aren't aware of that because their games kick
• 34:49
  off, you know, much later than those of us like to stay up late
• 34:53
  for. But I worry.
• 34:56
  I mean, if I had to do anything, it would be the slightest lean
• 34:59
  to the over because they're gonna get off to such a great
• 35:02
  start. I agree, but and.
• 35:05
  The schedule leans into that, right?
• 35:06
  The schedule speaks to that. And I, I, I don't know how you
• 35:10
  feel about like they, they, you know, they had this guy as the
• 35:13
  head coach in waiting. And then I guess they kind of I
• 35:15
  don't wanna say forced him out the door, but like, I mean, if
• 35:21
  you were AI mean and he's never head coach before.
• 35:23
  So it's it's not like he's got experience doing this at any
• 35:26
  other level anywhere else. I just you just don't know what
• 35:30
  they're going to look like. You would think they're going to
• 35:32
  let Dampier do his thing. They're going to have a solid
• 35:33
  defense. They'll be, you know, A10 win
• 35:35
  team, but too many, too many concerns there.
• 35:40
  I'd be 9 to 1 to get to the to win the conference.
• 35:43
  Sure. I mean, they could.
• 35:45
  They could, I might. I might lean that way too.
• 35:48
  But. Just to to your point with the
• 35:51
  with the coach and waiting thing, the head coach and
• 35:53
  waiting thing, show me two or three examples of a head coach
• 35:56
  in waiting that has actually taken over the program.
• 35:59
  There's been a bunch over the over the decades, right?
• 36:01
  That has truly been what people expected, right?
• 36:06
  It's truly been somebody who takes the program and takes to
• 36:11
  another level. There's not many head coaches in
• 36:13
  waiting that have done that. Most of them have unfortunately
• 36:17
  failed, right? So it's hard to bet on a a head
• 36:21
  coach in waiting when just the the the numbers themselves, the
• 36:25
  statistics lean against that. They would say that most head
• 36:29
  coaches in waiting turns out when they become the head coach
• 36:32
  are not head coaches, They're coordinators.
• 36:34
  They shouldn't be head coaches. And the whole thing fails,
• 36:36
  right? That's what happens.
• 36:38
  Look at my friggin school, Sharon Moore.
• 36:41
  I was. Just going to say, Sharon.
• 36:42
  Moore, right? Bring out Sharon Moore, right?
• 36:44
  He just got set and stayed. Who he actually said deserves a
• 36:46
  chance. Because you know.
• 36:49
  And I do I, I think, I think these guys deserve a chance.
• 36:52
  So I'm not saying they don't deserve a chance, but the
• 36:55
  probability if you look at the statistics would say most of
• 36:58
  them fail. I mean, and because just most of
• 37:01
  these guys are just not head coaches, right?
• 37:03
  They are guys who are good supporting cast members who play
• 37:06
  well at the head coach. And so I don't know, I mean, I'm
• 37:10
  not saying anything bad about the guy.
• 37:11
  I don't know enough about it at this point, but that I from the
• 37:14
  betting perspective that concerns me like I just would
• 37:18
  not bet on that because I just don't have enough information to
• 37:21
  to bet on it. Yeah, I agree.
• 37:23
  I'm going to avoid them. I also love watching Devin Dam
• 37:25
  here. But yeah, I don't think they're
• 37:27
  getting all right now. The last place where the
• 37:32
  targeting winners team went to watch a college football game in
• 37:36
  October? Central.
• 37:37
  Florida. That was a really cool place to
• 37:40
  watch a game. Yeah, I enjoyed it.
• 37:42
  It was nice. We all got a nice little
• 37:43
  sunburn, but you know, you gonna do.
• 37:46
  No, I'm just saying for the people listening, right, if you
• 37:48
  want to go watch a game somewhere, that was not a bad
• 37:50
  place to watch a game. The stadium was really cool.
• 37:52
  It wasn't big, but people were really friendly.
• 37:55
  It was small enough where you felt really comfortable.
• 37:57
  It was cool. It was a good place.
• 38:00
  All right, well, hard rocks got them at +5000 when the
• 38:02
  conference. FanDuel a little more confidence
• 38:04
  plus 4500 win total 5 1/2 heavily juiced to the over here.
• 38:11
  If you're a FanDuel player, this just comes down to you Have
• 38:17
  Alice Grinch as your defensive coordinator and Scott Frost as
• 38:19
  your head coach. Can I trust them?
• 38:20
  And the answer is no. That's exactly it.
• 38:23
  Like Scott Frost is still the head coach as the head coach,
• 38:25
  right? Then no.
• 38:26
  Then then again. Then again.
• 38:29
  This is Scott Frost at a place he probably should be coaching,
• 38:33
  all right. His his other job that that he
• 38:36
  was just that was over his head, just not where he should be.
• 38:41
  This is where he should probably be coaching.
• 38:42
  This makes sense for him. So once again, I don't have
• 38:45
  enough information to know what Scott Frost does in a different
• 38:49
  place as a head coach. And I like I actually like the
• 38:54
  guy. I like Scott Frost, I like what
• 38:55
  he says. I like his approach.
• 38:57
  I like it. I don't know if it translates
• 39:00
  into wins here at UCFII, don't know.
• 39:03
  But I mean, just being there last year, I mean, this is the
• 39:07
  type of place which is not huge, which I think would make sense
• 39:12
  for Scott to be at. So I, you know, I, I tend to be
• 39:17
  slightly favorable toward not, not for a bet this time through
• 39:20
  because I'm just this needs to play itself out.
• 39:22
  But I mean, longer term, could Scott be successful there?
• 39:26
  Maybe, maybe he could. Maybe that's the right place for
• 39:28
  him to be. So I'm not going to beat up
• 39:30
  Scott. I think he was putting up a
• 39:32
  really terrible position before of trying to resurrect a
• 39:35
  program, his alma mater. That wasn't going to happen
• 39:38
  because the program is terrible anyway and this wasn't going to
• 39:41
  happen, right? So that was that was unfair.
• 39:43
  I think this is fair. And what is the what's the win
• 39:47
  total? 5 1/2 What's?
• 39:48
  The five and a. Half Could you go over 5 1/2
• 39:51
  here? I mean, Petun Cookman win Pitt,
• 39:55
  I don't know what Pitts. I think they're, I think Pitts.
• 39:58
  I think Pitts not going to be too bad this year.
• 40:02
  Yeah, I mean, going to pit is always a problem, so.
• 40:04
  But look at that stretch after Georgia State, TCU at Houston at
• 40:07
  Oklahoma State BY. Yeah.
• 40:09
  I mean, that's a problem. I mean, that's a problem after
• 40:11
  that Baylor lost Kansas, I don't know what they're going to do.
• 40:14
  Yeah. So I mean, the schedules for
• 40:16
  Colorado win maybe so. I don't know.
• 40:18
  I mean, it doesn't look very favorable because the schedule's
• 40:21
  not exactly playing in. But I do think like so from the
• 40:24
  bet perspective this year not touching long term, I don't
• 40:29
  know. I I'm willing to give this a
• 40:30
  shot because I think Scott could maybe do something here.
• 40:34
  So we'll see. Yeah, I mean, offensively this
• 40:36
  team has been pretty bad. Getting Alain de Barnett from
• 40:40
  James Madison can only help. So I I, I do like that
• 40:45
  defensively, they actually were pretty solid last year.
• 40:49
  But again, Alice Grinch does have that track record of not,
• 40:54
  you know, not being great for for too long.
• 40:58
  Lost a couple defensive ends. The secondary still looks really
• 41:02
  good. They're getting four of their
• 41:03
  five starters back. So like you said, there is some
• 41:06
  some things here to build on. But yeah, I mean that that
• 41:12
  middle stretch, I can see a tailspin going here where, you
• 41:15
  know, maybe they do lose at Kansas, maybe they do lose at
• 41:17
  home to Arizona State. They get, what, 3-4 wins?
• 41:23
  That would be pretty, pretty bad, all right?
• 41:24
  That'd be pretty catastrophic. Yeah.
• 41:26
  I mean. Like I said, you just see that
• 41:27
  four-game stretch and that game at Pittsburgh could be really
• 41:30
  bad and then you know, all you have to do is what, lose.
• 41:34
  Lose one more and you're 6. That's the issue, right?
• 41:39
  Deeply underwater. So yeah, that's that's an issue.
• 41:41
  I mean I I guess it makes sense over 5 1/2 pretty heavily juiced
• 41:45
  like -160 at FanDuel, but. I don't know where that's coming
• 41:50
  from. I would, I would definitely
• 41:51
  consider the under here, not the over.
• 41:54
  I mean, if I was going to lean anywhere, it'd be the under, not
• 41:55
  the over. Like, where are you finding six
• 41:57
  wins here? Show me six wins.
• 42:00
  Why is that heavily juiced? I don't understand that.
• 42:02
  That's a line I don't get. I mean the left side, there's
• 42:05
  probably 2. And what about the right side?
• 42:07
  There might be two more. That's 4.
• 42:09
  Yeah. I mean, if they're going to get
• 42:10
  anything, it's going to be in November.
• 42:11
  It's going to be that from Halloween on, they got 33.
• 42:14
  Of their five games, there's a mistake.
• 42:16
  There's two, Iowa State maybe, OK, three.
• 42:19
  OK, fine. So there's there's five.
• 42:21
  I just, I don't know. I just don't.
• 42:25
  See that in this team just because Scott Frost in Nebraska
• 42:28
  has probably scarred me for at least another three seasons.
• 42:30
  So. Oh.
• 42:31
  It's probably scarred him for the rest of his life 'cause I
• 42:33
  mean like he. Wasn't the year before, wasn't
• 42:37
  the year before and did really well.
• 42:38
  So yeah, working against an extra more sense.
• 42:41
  For him, yeah. Yeah.
• 42:43
  So I don't know. Nebraska wasn't going to work.
• 42:46
  No, and it did not, all right. This is what?
• 42:50
  We're all waiting for. I have to take my pants back
• 42:52
  off. I mean, do you still have your
• 42:56
  Rich Rod kool-aid IV hooked up? Because.
• 42:58
  Hell yeah, I. Do I knew you would.
• 43:01
  And it probably tastes like success.
• 43:03
  All right, listen, we love us some West Virginia on this show,
• 43:06
  They were UC FS opponent at the game we went to.
• 43:11
  We saw enough QB runs to scare anybody to not be.
• 43:16
  Yeah, All right for this. Team, but our boy Rich Rod has
• 43:21
  has flipped his whole roster again.
• 43:23
  However, he has brought in Michael Hawkins, Oklahoma
• 43:26
  transfer. He has brought in Cam Cook, a
• 43:30
  leading rusher in the NCAA last year from Jacksonville State.
• 43:35
  three-way QB battle here shaping up.
• 43:38
  I don't I don't know if you got any thoughts on Scotty Fox, Max
• 43:40
  Brown or Michael Hawkins on who's going to get this job.
• 43:44
  I was excited to bet this, but I was thinking that, you know,
• 43:47
  last week we, we kind of looked at these teams to to make our
• 43:51
  win total bets. The week before.
• 43:53
  I did not look at the win total. I was shocked when I saw 5 1/2
• 43:57
  and I was even more shocked that it is heavily juiced to the
• 44:01
  over. But I mean, we love us some rich
• 44:05
  rod man. So I'll, I'll let you take it
• 44:07
  because this is your boy. It is indeed.
• 44:10
  I love me some Rich Rod. I I love what he brought to
• 44:13
  Michigan before he was kicked out the door.
• 44:17
  I think he's a really good coach.
• 44:18
  I think he brings. The thing with him is he doesn't
• 44:21
  need elite talent. The way he runs his offense and
• 44:24
  such is just a system and he just finds players to fit the
• 44:27
  system. So last year when we went and
• 44:29
  saw him, he did not have players to fit his system.
• 44:32
  He was just making it work because he just got there.
• 44:35
  So fine, right? It was, yeah.
• 44:38
  The quarterback runs are great. And I mean, it was it was
• 44:40
  concerning because they just didn't have the players.
• 44:43
  To me, it's like a Rich Rod year three.
• 44:45
  Thing is, a is a really good place to be because it gives
• 44:48
  them enough time to build out those players.
• 44:51
  Players love playing for this guy seems like a really good
• 44:54
  dude on all respects. I mean, 5 1/2 to me, if you look
• 44:58
  at this schedule is very, very doable.
• 45:04
  I think this team is going to over over produce.
• 45:08
  I think they're going to be better than people think they're
• 45:09
  going to be. No, they're probably not going
• 45:11
  to win the conference. They're not there yet.
• 45:15
  The defense is going to be a problem.
• 45:16
  I think that's that's going to be an issue.
• 45:19
  I do think the offense to to your to your quarterback
• 45:22
  question it, it almost doesn't matter, right?
• 45:26
  With Rich Rod's offense, it almost doesn't matter as long as
• 45:29
  the quarterback is kind of following his structure and can
• 45:33
  do what the quarterback needs to do in his system, right?
• 45:37
  Rich Rod's system doesn't need a superstar quarterback.
• 45:39
  As a matter of fact, I think he's kind of anti superstar
• 45:41
  quarterback, right? It's somebody that fits the
• 45:44
  system that does what he needs them to do.
• 45:46
  And I think out of those three players, I think they're going
• 45:48
  to find somebody who who will do what he needs them to do.
• 45:51
  Look at the schedule, right Coastal when UT when Virginia,
• 45:56
  Charlotte, maybe a maybe a win. I don't know.
• 45:59
  Oklahoma State's going to be a challenge and it's a good team.
• 46:02
  Iowa State heavy Cincinnati win at TCUI, don't know T we talked
• 46:08
  about TCU being good. So but by that point in the
• 46:11
  season, maybe, maybe West Virginia's better.
• 46:13
  So that could be competitive. Forget November 7th at Texas
• 46:17
  Tech, that ain't going to happen.
• 46:19
  But Kansas, Houston at Utah is probably an issue.
• 46:23
  But there's enough winnable games here, especially early,
• 46:29
  because I think this team's going to take some time to gel.
• 46:32
  It's going to take some time to get there.
• 46:34
  So the fact that their schedule other than Oklahoma State, which
• 46:37
  they're going to lose too, but they're going to lose
• 46:38
  regardless, right? So just call that an L, right?
• 46:41
  Outside of that, I think the rest of those games are
• 46:43
  potentially winnable, which is interesting because by the time
• 46:48
  you get to the second-half, the team should be clicking a little
• 46:51
  more. I do think you're going to find
• 46:54
  some opportunity there. So this is a bet for me.
• 46:58
  I'm West Virginia over 5 1/2. I do feel very comfortable with
• 47:03
  this team over 5 1/2 here. Just looking at risk for Rich
• 47:07
  Rod's history and what he's done with.
• 47:09
  He's just one of those coaches that I don't want to call it
• 47:12
  inferior talent, but like that second tier talent, he's one of
• 47:17
  those coaches that gets a lot of a lot out of second tier talent.
• 47:21
  Like he doesn't need 5 stars. He doesn't need, he doesn't need
• 47:25
  that. And, and I think that with his
• 47:28
  history here, coming back here, I think he can draw enough 2nd
• 47:33
  and 3rd tier talent to run his system where this is just a
• 47:38
  dangerous team and they will be a dangerous team going forward.
• 47:41
  You don't want to go into West Virginia and play this team and
• 47:44
  this team is quite can be quite dangerous.
• 47:46
  So love this bet, love the over. Don't care about the juice in
• 47:51
  this case 'cause I love the over all day long.
• 47:54
  But then again, Darren found me some really good juice on
• 47:56
  DraftKings today, so from from that perspective.
• 47:59
  I just looked, it is still plus 100 at 5 1/2 'cause.
• 48:03
  That's insane. Where do you see that?
• 48:05
  I'm like DraftKings baby. He's like.
• 48:07
  What I was looking at on FanDuel and other places was way worse
• 48:11
  than that. That plus 100 is an insane
• 48:13
  number. If you get +100 on this team
• 48:17
  over 5 1/2, you should take it and run because I feel very
• 48:21
  confident they're going to be 6, seven wins.
• 48:23
  I'm looking at DraftKings right now over 4 1/2 -. 245 / 5 1/2 +
• 48:28
  100. If you really love them over 6
• 48:31
  1/2, you can get plus 210 right now as we speak.
• 48:35
  Wow. I mean, that's, that's really
• 48:37
  intriguing, to be honest. I mean, I don't know if I love
• 48:40
  them. That is quite.
• 48:41
  That much, but maybe, maybe I do.
• 48:43
  I mean, this is, this is a team that I expect at the moment
• 48:45
  your. Turn that much.
• 48:48
  But I do love me some Cam Cook. I was telling you before start
• 48:52
  that dude could steal a game or two on his own.
• 48:55
  Yes, and like you were talking about, it might not matter who
• 48:57
  the quarterback is. I could see Sarah Rich Rod's
• 48:59
  got, you know, because he he ran that seriously up tempo offense
• 49:03
  at Jacksonville State. He could have packages for both
• 49:05
  Scotty Fox and William Hoggins. He'll run two or three
• 49:08
  quarterbacks through. Just keep like cycling through,
• 49:10
  right? He'll do that.
• 49:11
  He doesn't care. As long as you can turn around
• 49:13
  and hand the ball off to Cam Cook, you know, you should be
• 49:17
  fine. But like, I can see them keeping
• 49:19
  up with Oklahoma State. I can see them beating
• 49:22
  Cincinnati. I can see them beating Kansas.
• 49:26
  I mean, they're there's I, you know, it's feels weird to say,
• 49:30
  but that Virginia game could be could be the one that determines
• 49:33
  it. Could it?
• 49:34
  Could be interesting. It could be a really good game,
• 49:36
  yeah. No, that should be a great game.
• 49:38
  Yeah. But yeah, I see.
• 49:41
  Like I said, I saw that 5 1/2 like the day after we had
• 49:44
  recorded last week. So I had my notes on West
• 49:46
  Virginia. I'm like, oh, Rich Rod's doing
• 49:47
  Rich Rod things. I'm like, I think it was only
• 49:50
  like 3 1/2 last year. I'm like, dude, give me 3 1/2,
• 49:53
  even 4 1/2. I am pounding the over and I saw
• 49:55
  5 1/2 and I'm like, all right, no bet.
• 49:59
  That's way higher than I thought.
• 50:00
  But yeah, I mean, you, you cannot doubt Rich Rod.
• 50:04
  He's one of the coaches in this conference that I would trust,
• 50:06
  along with maybe Kenny dealing and maybe like one or two other
• 50:09
  guys. Yeah, sure.
• 50:09
  There's a couple others, sure. All right, so Tim and you both
• 50:13
  got a little DraftKings. I got Tim's bed in for him
• 50:16
  today. Over 5 1/2 + 100 still available
• 50:19
  as we are sitting here recording.
• 50:20
  So if you agree with beating Tim, get to DK, get that locked
• 50:23
  in. All right, man, it is.
• 50:26
  And it's event like, Vandal's like -154 a couple.
• 50:29
  Days ago for that. The spread between those two is
• 50:31
  incredibly big, right? Like what?
• 50:35
  What are they looking? That's why we try to shop
• 50:36
  around, man, especially in the futures market.
• 50:39
  You get some crazy numbers all right.
• 50:41
  Man, let me like, yeah, sorry, I'm just like just saying from
• 50:44
  like the bankroll management and just betting and all that, like
• 50:47
  this online betting thing has changed.
• 50:49
  A lot of things like Vegas used to be so aligned with this
• 50:52
  stuff. You wouldn't see gaps like this
• 50:54
  very often. Seeing a gap like this would
• 50:57
  speak to, I mean, like, I'm a finance guy, right?
• 50:59
  Seeing a gap like this would speak to what the Hell's going
• 51:03
  on here. Like there is clearly a massive
• 51:06
  disconnect. How do I read it?
• 51:08
  What do I do with it? That's intriguing.
• 51:10
  That's very intriguing with this.
• 51:11
  Yeah. I mean, a month ago when we did
• 51:13
  the national championship show, DraftKings had BYU at 70 to one
• 51:19
  bet, MGM had 80 to 1 was a FanDuel where I think I made
• 51:23
  that bet had 125 to one. Yeah, I'm playing that F
• 51:26
  FanDuel. That's insane.
• 51:29
  So yeah, definitely shop around, especially in regards to the
• 51:33
  future spark, because like Pete said, you're going to get some
• 51:35
  crazy variances in these numbers for sure.
• 51:38
  All right, well, let's wrap it up.
• 51:40
  If you want any of our picks from the first eight teams,
• 51:42
  check out our video that we put out last week.
• 51:44
  We we gave out five bets there last week so. 5 yes.
• 51:49
  Yeah. So 8 bets in this conference,
• 51:51
  that's pretty good. I just want to say that one
• 51:53
  gentleman who was listening and left us a review on Apple
• 51:55
  podcast saying we'd love to see more bets.
• 51:57
  I hope you're listening, buddy. I made eight future bets all of
• 52:01
  last year. I have 6 already and we're one
• 52:03
  conference in SO. Yeah, if you're listening right
• 52:06
  now, Bridge Rod, West Virginia over 5 1/2 at +100 DraftKings.
• 52:12
  You should jump on that all day long the same.
• 52:15
  All right, well, Tim, and you are on that there, West Virginia
• 52:18
  over 5 1/2 and plus 100. I have got Kansas under 5 1/2.
• 52:24
  No Jan Daniels leads me to believe no bowl game.
• 52:28
  And again, that plus 145 is that drafting well, by far the best
• 52:32
  number there. So Pete, any final thoughts?
• 52:36
  No, I'm excited that. So that's the Big 12.
• 52:38
  Wrapping it up, some really interesting conferences.
• 52:41
  We said right from day one, this is an intriguing conference.
• 52:44
  There's a lot of like things going on here.
• 52:46
  So good luck. I wish you the best man.
• 52:49
  Thanks for checking us out, guys.
• 52:51
  Again, like subscribe, we're on YouTube, we're on Spotify, we're
• 52:54
  on iheart, we're all over the place.
• 52:56
  Tell your friends, give us a listen.
• 52:58
  There's going to be conference previews all the way right up
• 53:01
  till the end of August. When we get into week 0, it'll
• 53:03
  be here before you know it. Alright, thanks a lot guys.
• 53:06
  We'll be back in a couple weeks with another conference preview
• 53:09
  yet to be determined, but we will see you soon.
• 53:12
  Thanks a lot guys, have a good one.