Latest / Toadstool Sports / MONDAY BEST BETS | College Basketball Conference Tournaments & NHL & NBA | 3/9/26
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:19Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
- 0:27Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man, with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
- 0:37Speaker 1: a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my Broins hack. Man,
- 0:42Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
- 0:44Speaker 1: March eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:46Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
- 0:53Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
- 0:55Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
- 0:59Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die, at
- 1:02Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
- 1:06Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
- 1:10Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
- 1:13Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:20Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
- 1:24Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports.
- 1:36Speaker 1: It is Monday, March ninth. It is the beginning of
- 1:40Speaker 1: conference tournament week in college basketball, on the one of
- 1:45Speaker 1: the crazier weeks really, which the big conference tournaments will
- 1:50Speaker 1: begin tomorrow. I will break down those conferences, plus the
- 1:55Speaker 1: ones that I haven't done so far, which I think
- 1:56Speaker 1: I have to do, the American and the IVY. Still
- 2:00Speaker 1: sort of the IVY. I've kind of mentioned it repeatedly,
- 2:03Speaker 1: but now that it's actually set, so I'll do that
- 2:05Speaker 1: video probably later today, assuming my voice is all right.
- 2:10Speaker 1: I will congratulate the new auto bids that were clinched yesterday.
- 2:15Speaker 1: In college basketball, we have congratulations to the High Point Panthers.
- 2:22Speaker 1: They are the winners of the Big South for the
- 2:23Speaker 1: second straight year, so they will be in the tournament.
- 2:26Speaker 1: Congratulations to Northern Iowa. Are they the Panthers as well.
- 2:31Speaker 1: I feel like they are the Northern Iowa whatever. They
- 2:34Speaker 1: are winning the Missouri Valley. Very good defense on that team,
- 2:39Speaker 1: even though I think Belmont should be in the tournament,
- 2:42Speaker 1: but you know, Northern Iowa, they were able to get
- 2:45Speaker 1: the job none. They are definitely a solid team. Congratulations
- 2:50Speaker 1: to my man Grant Leonard coach Grant from Queen's, Queen's College,
- 2:57Speaker 1: Queen's University, whatever it is, Queen's North Carolina in their
- 3:01Speaker 1: last year of existence before they merged with Elon apparently
- 3:04Speaker 1: become Quelon. Queen's is in the tournament, so that would
- 3:09Speaker 1: be interesting. And then who else clinched? Oh, North Dakota State.
- 3:16Speaker 1: The Bison clinched winning the Summit League. So congratulations to
- 3:21Speaker 1: all of those teams. I don't did I miss any
- 3:24Speaker 1: Hopefully I didn't. I don't think I did. I will
- 3:26Speaker 1: have more autobits clinched today. So yeah, that's what's going on.
- 3:32Speaker 1: Some crazy action in some of those games. The worst
- 3:36Speaker 1: or the most disputed one was the end of that
- 3:39Speaker 1: Navy game Boston University. I told you I thought they
- 3:42Speaker 1: might give Navy some problems there because they did play
- 3:45Speaker 1: them fairly well both times this year. BU was in
- 3:49Speaker 1: that game the whole time. It's just the the refs
- 3:53Speaker 1: kind of ruined the game if you didn't see that game.
- 3:55Speaker 1: At the end of it, Navy had the inbounded the ball.
- 4:00Speaker 1: They had to go to the length of the floor
- 4:01Speaker 1: with eight seconds to go in a tide game. They did.
- 4:05Speaker 1: They didn't even call a time out. One of their
- 4:07Speaker 1: guards drove right to the basket scored with about three
- 4:11Speaker 1: seconds left, so b you didn't have any timeouts left,
- 4:16Speaker 1: so the clock should keep running. But the clock stopped
- 4:20Speaker 1: and I counted it. I've watched it multiple times. The
- 4:22Speaker 1: clock stopped for like more than four seconds. BU inbounded it,
- 4:27Speaker 1: went up the floor, got past half court, hit a three,
- 4:29Speaker 1: and that won the game for BU. Which is a
- 4:33Speaker 1: shame because Navy is definitely the best team in that league,
- 4:36Speaker 1: in the Patriot League, and I was waiting for Navy
- 4:39Speaker 1: to draw Nebraska in the tournaments that we could play
- 4:43Speaker 1: Navy as a huge underdog, because I think they would
- 4:46Speaker 1: actually give Nebraska a lot of issues. But no, the
- 4:51Speaker 1: refs reviewed it, but they couldn't over You can't overturn
- 4:54Speaker 1: like a buzzer beat or three, you know what I mean,
- 4:56Speaker 1: because you didn't start the clock in time. The refs
- 4:58Speaker 1: fucked it all up. What they did do is they
- 5:00Speaker 1: gave Navy like a second left, but of course Navy
- 5:04Speaker 1: couldn't do anything in that amount of time. But it
- 5:08Speaker 1: was bad, dude, Like the clock was stopped for four
- 5:11Speaker 1: seconds and there were like three something seconds left on
- 5:14Speaker 1: the clock. BU would not have gotten that shot off
- 5:16Speaker 1: before the buzzer. So that was a huge mistake by
- 5:20Speaker 1: the refs, really really ridiculous. As the tournament field continues
- 5:24Speaker 1: to weaken, that was the craziest game ending yesterday, I
- 5:29Speaker 1: would say, and then you know, I guess, well, we'll
- 5:31Speaker 1: talk about some of the other ones as we go
- 5:33Speaker 1: today because you do have some of these teams that
- 5:35Speaker 1: played yesterday in action again today, so I don't want
- 5:39Speaker 1: to make this show too long. But we also didn't
- 5:41Speaker 1: do well on the show yesterday. Two and three. Nebraska
- 5:44Speaker 1: actually went off as a five and a half point favorite,
- 5:47Speaker 1: so you could have gotten a better number on that.
- 5:49Speaker 1: They should have covered pretty easily, to be honest, Like
- 5:51Speaker 1: they started pulling away. They were winning that game by
- 5:54Speaker 1: ten with a few minutes left, and then somehow it
- 5:58Speaker 1: went into overtime. But at least I guess Luckily at
- 6:01Speaker 1: that point they still covered all the numbers, winning by
- 6:04Speaker 1: nine in ot so you know, I think it was
- 6:07Speaker 1: the right side though, to be honest. Then we had
- 6:10Speaker 1: San Francisco who looked really good at the beginning of
- 6:12Speaker 1: the game, not so much after that. I think they
- 6:16Speaker 1: were winning the game, or maybe it was a really
- 6:17Speaker 1: close game at halftime. I think they were winning by two.
- 6:20Speaker 1: At the half, it was looking all right, and then nope,
- 6:23Speaker 1: they had a bad second half and they were pretty
- 6:25Speaker 1: much losing by a few points for most of the
- 6:28Speaker 1: remainder of the game and they lost outright. Really really
- 6:31Speaker 1: surprised by that. That Oregon State team, their total ass ridiculous.
- 6:37Speaker 1: The Chicago Blackhawks went out, got out to a two
- 6:39Speaker 1: nothing lead, which pretty much at least almost ensure that
- 6:44Speaker 1: we were gonna get that cover, and we did, but
- 6:45Speaker 1: they lost the game. They blew the lead. They actually
- 6:49Speaker 1: went into overtime. So once it got into overtime, the
- 6:51Speaker 1: plus one and a half was good. But I always
- 6:55Speaker 1: tell you to sprinkle a little bit on the money line.
- 6:57Speaker 1: So the money line sprinkled didn't happen. And then NBA,
- 7:00Speaker 1: which is usually really good for me, it was just awful.
- 7:02Speaker 1: I'm just waiting for the NBA playoffs at this point,
- 7:05Speaker 1: man playoffs, because I'm really good in the NBA playoffs typically,
- 7:09Speaker 1: but usually I'm really good during the NBA season too.
- 7:12Speaker 1: It's just that the end of the season is so
- 7:15Speaker 1: hard to handicap. Now. The Milwaukee Bucks actually went off
- 7:18Speaker 1: as a six point favorite. You couldn't got you could
- 7:20Speaker 1: have gotten a better number on it still didn't matter.
- 7:23Speaker 1: They got their asses handed to them. And then Indiana
- 7:25Speaker 1: couldn't get within the number either, which that one, the
- 7:30Speaker 1: Milwaukee one was just completely wrong. The Pacers one, I
- 7:33Speaker 1: thought that they should have probably covered, but there's some
- 7:37Speaker 1: weird things that happen in that game. Let's move on today.
- 7:39Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you one play and it's really mostly
- 7:42Speaker 1: kind of a numbers play and really just more of
- 7:44Speaker 1: this team is way better than this team. And that's
- 7:46Speaker 1: gonna be my one play that I have today. All
- 7:50Speaker 1: conference tournament action. Regular season has ended, so we have
- 7:57Speaker 1: all conference tournaments, the Swack Tournament, which I talked about yesterday.
- 8:01Speaker 1: You can go check out my conference tournament futures, previous videos,
- 8:05Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. I did one yesterday
- 8:07Speaker 1: that included the Swack Alcorn State and Alabama State. Is
- 8:12Speaker 1: the opening round swack game that we get today. I
- 8:14Speaker 1: think it's the only swack game today. No, my mistake.
- 8:18Speaker 1: There are two because Mississippi Valley State gets to play
- 8:22Speaker 1: because every team makes a tournament. Now, Alcorn State, they're
- 8:25Speaker 1: also pretty bad. They're not as bad as a Mississippi
- 8:29Speaker 1: Valley State, but they're bad. They're playing Alabama State, who
- 8:33Speaker 1: I believe won this conference last year. Now, Alabama State,
- 8:37Speaker 1: they are still a pretty good defense. I think they
- 8:39Speaker 1: should win this game. They finished the season pretty bad,
- 8:43Speaker 1: losing four of their last five, but conference tournament usually
- 8:47Speaker 1: is a reset, you know what I mean. Like when
- 8:48Speaker 1: you finish the season bad, A lot of times you
- 8:50Speaker 1: could turn it around and look at who they lost to.
- 8:53Speaker 1: At the end of the season. They lost to Bethune Cookman,
- 8:55Speaker 1: who's obviously the best team in the conference on the road,
- 8:59Speaker 1: lost at f to A and M, who got the
- 9:01Speaker 1: two seed, even though I don't think they're great. Then
- 9:03Speaker 1: they lost at home in fairly competitive games against Southern
- 9:06Speaker 1: who I think is the second best team in the conference,
- 9:09Speaker 1: and then to Grambling, who I think is the best
- 9:12Speaker 1: defense in the conference, maybe second best. Alabama State also
- 9:16Speaker 1: a really good defense. I think they should win this game.
- 9:19Speaker 1: They played at Alcorn, I think only once this year.
- 9:21Speaker 1: They did beat them at home easily by fifteen. Alcorn
- 9:25Speaker 1: is just really really not good man, So I think
- 9:28Speaker 1: Alabama State is probably the right side here. Though Alcorn
- 9:31Speaker 1: finished the season bad as well, losing three of four,
- 9:34Speaker 1: only beating Mississippi Valley State. Not impressive at all. They're
- 9:37Speaker 1: like the worst team at all of D one. I
- 9:40Speaker 1: should bring up ken Bomb, by the way, just to
- 9:42Speaker 1: have it up. Oh, I do have it up anyway,
- 9:47Speaker 1: by the way, by ken Bomb, because the stuff that
- 9:49Speaker 1: I should probably stop showing the conference view that I've
- 9:53Speaker 1: been showing on my conference tournament previous because that's I
- 9:56Speaker 1: didn't realize that is also behind the paywall. I thought
- 9:59Speaker 1: that just his score predictions were, but that's also behind
- 10:02Speaker 1: the paywall. So by ken Bomb, he's like twenty five
- 10:05Speaker 1: a year or whatever. Very very inexpensive. Anyway, al Corn
- 10:09Speaker 1: did get annihilated in their last game of the regular season,
- 10:11Speaker 1: so they might want to show something here, and Alabama
- 10:14Speaker 1: State is more of a defensive team. I don't want
- 10:17Speaker 1: anything to do with this game, but I do think
- 10:18Speaker 1: Alabama State probably wins. They're up from six and a
- 10:22Speaker 1: half to seven. I probably would still need towards laying it,
- 10:25Speaker 1: but with a defensive team like that and what looks
- 10:28Speaker 1: like it's gonna be an ugly game, it's kind of
- 10:30Speaker 1: less tempting to do that. So the swack is just
- 10:34Speaker 1: it's awful. Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
- 10:39Speaker 1: And then the other swack game Mississippi Valley State. Like
- 10:42Speaker 1: I said, they're the worst team in all of D one,
- 10:44Speaker 1: I think, yes, they still are. A Western Illinois trying
- 10:50Speaker 1: to give them a run for their money. I guess,
- 10:52Speaker 1: by the way, I don't know what happened to Coppin
- 10:54Speaker 1: State in the MIAC. I don't know if the MIAK
- 10:59Speaker 1: drops their worst team in the conference, or if they're
- 11:02Speaker 1: on some kind of probation or something. Because the MIAC,
- 11:04Speaker 1: you'd think that because they have I think they only
- 11:06Speaker 1: have eight teams, you think they would all get in
- 11:08Speaker 1: to the tournament. Like it's very weird to set up
- 11:12Speaker 1: a seven team tournament. So I don't know. I don't
- 11:15Speaker 1: know what's going on with Coppin State. They might be
- 11:18Speaker 1: in some sort of trouble with the NCAAA. I have
- 11:21Speaker 1: no idea, but anyway, Mississippi Valley State is awful. I
- 11:23Speaker 1: talked about this in my preview yesterday. Grambling State is
- 11:27Speaker 1: way underseeded in this conference tournament. They're one of the
- 11:30Speaker 1: best teams in this conference. I think they're like the
- 11:33Speaker 1: third best team in the conference, and somehow they got
- 11:35Speaker 1: the nine seed. They're a fourteen point favorite here, and
- 11:39Speaker 1: the money seems to be coming in on them, fifty
- 11:41Speaker 1: to fifty on the tickets, sixty eight percent of the
- 11:43Speaker 1: cash on Grambling. I think Grambling clearly should win this game.
- 11:50Speaker 1: I'd lean towards laying the points as well, but in
- 11:52Speaker 1: a low total like this one thirty five, it's just
- 11:56Speaker 1: it is so bad, man, it is so ugly. Now,
- 11:58Speaker 1: Grambling is a good defense. So one way to maybe
- 12:02Speaker 1: potentially think about playing this game be Mississippi Valley State
- 12:05Speaker 1: under their team total. Might make sense. Just go with
- 12:08Speaker 1: them to not score much in this game. I don't know.
- 12:11Speaker 1: This game isn't until the evening, by the way, so
- 12:13Speaker 1: you get an afternoon swack game and then you get
- 12:16Speaker 1: this night swack game that nobody's gonna watch. Grambling beat
- 12:21Speaker 1: Mississippi Valley State at home by twenty one the last
- 12:24Speaker 1: time they played them. That might have been the only
- 12:27Speaker 1: time they played them this year. I think they only
- 12:29Speaker 1: played once, so you know, not a whole lot that
- 12:33Speaker 1: you can take away from that, but they're clearly the
- 12:35Speaker 1: way better team, all right, even though Crambling is not
- 12:38Speaker 1: even good. That's just how bad Mississippi Valley State it is.
- 12:42Speaker 1: All right. CBS Sports is finally airing the Colonial Conference
- 12:49Speaker 1: Tournament games as we get to the semifinals. Those games
- 12:52Speaker 1: have been almost impossible to find streams of because I
- 12:55Speaker 1: wanted to watch Campbell pull off that upset yesterday, but
- 12:59Speaker 1: I couldn't find it anywhere, even the streams on the
- 13:03Speaker 1: actual conference website. A lot of times they'll put it
- 13:06Speaker 1: out for free, but they did not. You have to
- 13:10Speaker 1: buy flow hoops or whatever for it. A lot of times.
- 13:14Speaker 1: I'm pretty good at finding the streams, but I couldn't
- 13:16Speaker 1: find those anyway. Campbell pulled off a ridiculous upset of
- 13:21Speaker 1: UNC Wilmington. UNC Wilmington was about a seven point favorite.
- 13:24Speaker 1: But remember I told you Wilmington they do not do
- 13:27Speaker 1: well against fast paced teams, and that is what Campbell is.
- 13:30Speaker 1: Campbell won the game easily, just ran away with the
- 13:34Speaker 1: game pretty much. Now they get to play Monmouth, who's
- 13:38Speaker 1: not that great. Campbell did lose at home by fifteen
- 13:42Speaker 1: to Monmouth. They actually won by three at Monmouth earlier
- 13:46Speaker 1: in the season, so we had some weird disparate results
- 13:49Speaker 1: there that don't really it's hard to figure out. Like
- 13:52Speaker 1: you got to dig into the box scores, you got
- 13:54Speaker 1: to see what the number was in each game. I
- 13:56Speaker 1: think each home team I think was like a three,
- 13:59Speaker 1: three and a half point favor So the oddsmakers were
- 14:01Speaker 1: just constantly kind of telling you these teams are very
- 14:03Speaker 1: closely matched. The number here basically says the same thing.
- 14:07Speaker 1: Monmouth is a one and a half way favorite. Fifty
- 14:09Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets are on Campbell, sixty two
- 14:12Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Monmouth, so the money is
- 14:14Speaker 1: coming in on Monmouth. Monmouth did get the win yesterday
- 14:18Speaker 1: in their matchup as well. They beat Drexel. I mean
- 14:22Speaker 1: that's a much less impressive win. I'll probably agree. Even
- 14:26Speaker 1: though I don't think Mammouth is particularly good, I think
- 14:29Speaker 1: they will actually get it done here against Campbell. They've
- 14:32Speaker 1: shown the ability to beat Campbell, and yeah, I mean
- 14:37Speaker 1: they The one bad thing is they do have to
- 14:39Speaker 1: go from playing a slow paced seem like Drexel to
- 14:42Speaker 1: the next day playing a fast paced seem like Campbell,
- 14:44Speaker 1: which can kind of be a problem. But if Monmouth
- 14:48Speaker 1: they are probably gonna want to slow the game down
- 14:51Speaker 1: because they play They don't play slow, but they play
- 14:54Speaker 1: slower than Campbell does. I don't know. We'll see what
- 14:57Speaker 1: happens here. Monmouth is also the way better def see
- 15:00Speaker 1: if Campbell is the faster based team here ken bom
- 15:03Speaker 1: Actually is Campbell a little bit better than Monmouth? I think?
- 15:07Speaker 1: Did I get that right? Yeah? He has them four
- 15:09Speaker 1: ranking spots higher the Monmouth. So again, these teams are
- 15:12Speaker 1: just very very close to each other. But when it
- 15:16Speaker 1: comes down to a game like this, I'll somewhat why.
- 15:19Speaker 1: I'll wind up leaning towards the considerably better depfense more
- 15:22Speaker 1: often than not, especially if the other team's coming off
- 15:24Speaker 1: a ridiculous upset, even though it was only about a
- 15:27Speaker 1: seven point upset and it was a bad styling matchup
- 15:31Speaker 1: for UNC Wilmington. Yeah, I'll lean towards Monmouth. It's insane,
- 15:36Speaker 1: but I think Monmouth is gonna make the final in
- 15:39Speaker 1: the Colonial here. The money is coming in that way,
- 15:43Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not gonna disagree with Monmouth in that one.
- 15:47Speaker 1: Let me see here, as far as the regular season
- 15:49Speaker 1: was concerned, I want to just make sure that I
- 15:51Speaker 1: was right about those numbers there before I move on
- 15:55Speaker 1: real quick. Let me see Monmouth at Campbell. Let me see, Yeah,
- 16:00Speaker 1: Campbell was a four and a half bay favorite at home,
- 16:02Speaker 1: so you know close. Basically, the ozegers are telling you
- 16:05Speaker 1: that Campbell is a slightly better team with that number,
- 16:07Speaker 1: so the number hasn't changed much. And that was the
- 16:10Speaker 1: more recent matchup of the two. And then the uh,
- 16:14Speaker 1: let me see the game at Campbell, or sorry, the
- 16:17Speaker 1: game at Mom and Mama was actually only a one
- 16:20Speaker 1: and a half way favorite at home, so I got
- 16:21Speaker 1: that wrong. So earlier in the season, the oszeggers are
- 16:24Speaker 1: telling you Campbell was the better team, but you do
- 16:26Speaker 1: have to adjust the power raidings a little bit as
- 16:28Speaker 1: the season goes on. Then the second game we do
- 16:31Speaker 1: have the highest power rated team in the Colonial is
- 16:34Speaker 1: still around Hostra. They're playing thousand thousand looked really good yesterday,
- 16:40Speaker 1: and I'm pissed because that was I told you that
- 16:43Speaker 1: was the next play that I had that I didn't
- 16:45Speaker 1: put them on my card. And if I was gonna
- 16:46Speaker 1: add another one. It was gonna be thousand, and they
- 16:49Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed Charleston yesterday. Man, I liked the Towsand came
- 16:53Speaker 1: into it with a game under their belt where they
- 16:55Speaker 1: didn't look that great in the previous game, but they
- 16:57Speaker 1: got a win. They played in the tournament. This entire tournament,
- 17:00Speaker 1: by the ways, being played in Washington, d C. I
- 17:04Speaker 1: forgot to mention the swack is all at some neutral
- 17:10Speaker 1: site Atlanta, Georgia, I forgot, or it's somewhere like outside
- 17:13Speaker 1: of Atlanta, I think, so, just you know, to keep
- 17:17Speaker 1: all that in mind, Hostra in this game is down
- 17:21Speaker 1: for four and a half to three and a half year,
- 17:22Speaker 1: ninety two percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of the
- 17:24Speaker 1: cash on them. Hostro looks like they're gonna be a
- 17:28Speaker 1: public side. I do think they're the better team, even
- 17:30Speaker 1: though Toosand has been pretty good on defense. They are
- 17:34Speaker 1: a good defense, but thousand they looked too good yesterday,
- 17:37Speaker 1: I think, and no team is really as good as
- 17:39Speaker 1: they look in their best game. That was pretty much
- 17:42Speaker 1: Towsan's best game. Man. So they they're gonna show up
- 17:45Speaker 1: for this game for sure, But I don't know what
- 17:47Speaker 1: they're gonna have Although HOSTRO looked really good yesterday to
- 17:50Speaker 1: Actually I didn't realize they blew William and Mary out
- 17:52Speaker 1: like that. I knew they won, but they won by
- 17:56Speaker 1: thirty one points against William and Mary. That's pretty insane too, So,
- 18:01Speaker 1: you know, both teams actually looked probably better than they
- 18:04Speaker 1: are yesterday. Even though I do think HOSTRA is the
- 18:06Speaker 1: best team in the conference. Tousand is very good on defense,
- 18:09Speaker 1: they play slow. HOSTRA is way more balanced though HOSTRA
- 18:15Speaker 1: is almost as good defensively, and they're way better offensively
- 18:19Speaker 1: than Towsand, and they also play slow Sostra. They're just
- 18:23Speaker 1: the better team because they have an offense its tousand doesn't.
- 18:26Speaker 1: Both teams do play defense. You know, I guess I
- 18:32Speaker 1: think I will lean to hostraight here. I think they
- 18:34Speaker 1: are the better team, but possibly the better way to
- 18:37Speaker 1: look at it is the under because both teams scored.
- 18:41Speaker 1: It's on yesterday, right, but it's kind of like a
- 18:44Speaker 1: you know, the style kind of makes it right. Like
- 18:46Speaker 1: host played a fast paced team that doesn't play defense,
- 18:49Speaker 1: which is Willim and Mary. Towsand played a team that
- 18:52Speaker 1: can score, which is Charleston. Although Host's offense, like I
- 18:56Speaker 1: just showed you wasn't bad either, but I think you
- 18:58Speaker 1: might wind up seeing deep vents just show up a
- 19:00Speaker 1: lot of times. These semi final final games. They've become
- 19:04Speaker 1: defensive battles. I wouldn't disagree with an under in that game,
- 19:09Speaker 1: all right, And those are both on CBS Sports, by
- 19:12Speaker 1: the way. Next up, we have the Southland Conference getting
- 19:16Speaker 1: going with Actually they might have had they may have
- 19:20Speaker 1: had they had opening round games last night. Actually, so
- 19:23Speaker 1: the Southland is already in action, but some of the
- 19:25Speaker 1: better teams are jumping into the fray. Here we have
- 19:28Speaker 1: New Orleans and Texas A and m CC. New Orleans
- 19:32Speaker 1: is the team that famously beat TCU in the first
- 19:34Speaker 1: game of the season, played a decently difficult out of
- 19:37Speaker 1: conference schedule. They've been okay. I think they're better than
- 19:41Speaker 1: people think they are. They played yesterday as well, so
- 19:44Speaker 1: they beat Houston Christian yesterday, which I thought they would
- 19:47Speaker 1: because they are the better team. Now they have to
- 19:48Speaker 1: step up in class and play A and MCC. They
- 19:51Speaker 1: did actually beat them at home the last time they
- 19:53Speaker 1: played them, and they lost to them on the road earlier,
- 19:56Speaker 1: so the home team won each match each game in
- 19:59Speaker 1: this matchup, ANMCC is good, but they haven't played since
- 20:03Speaker 1: the end of the regular season and they finished on
- 20:05Speaker 1: a three game win streak, so I kind of lean
- 20:09Speaker 1: to New Orleans here. Man. These games are also in
- 20:12Speaker 1: Lake Charles, Louisiana, so I think New Orleans has a
- 20:15Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage here. An MC season only
- 20:19Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. Here they're very public,
- 20:21Speaker 1: ninety tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on them.
- 20:24Speaker 1: They're up from one to two and a half. But again,
- 20:26Speaker 1: I think New Orleans has a couple of edges here. One,
- 20:29Speaker 1: they're playing closer a home. But the bigger advantage I
- 20:33Speaker 1: think is the fact that they played yesterday and they
- 20:34Speaker 1: got an easy win, so they have momentum, you know.
- 20:37Speaker 1: Like I always say, in these conference tournaments, the team
- 20:39Speaker 1: that has one game under their belt usually has an
- 20:42Speaker 1: edge because they get familiar with the venue. Again, they played,
- 20:46Speaker 1: they shed the nerves, you know what I mean. Whereas
- 20:48Speaker 1: A and MCC hasn't played since the end of the
- 20:50Speaker 1: regular season. I'm pretty sure that's the case, so they
- 20:54Speaker 1: have a lot of time off and you could develop
- 20:56Speaker 1: rust when you have all that time off. You know,
- 20:58Speaker 1: they haven't played for a week, so I think the
- 21:00Speaker 1: advantage does go to New Orleans because of that, so
- 21:03Speaker 1: I would lean to New Orleans plus the points in
- 21:05Speaker 1: that one. Then the second game in the Southland is
- 21:09Speaker 1: Nickels State and Rio Grande Valley UT. Rio Grande Valley
- 21:13Speaker 1: a Nickels State or Nickels now they won yesterday. I
- 21:18Speaker 1: gain's Northwestern State easy win there as well a couple
- 21:21Speaker 1: of boring games in the Southland yesterday were the better
- 21:24Speaker 1: team won in both games. Real Grande Valleys definitely step
- 21:29Speaker 1: up though they're the third best team in this conference.
- 21:32Speaker 1: They actually played pretty well defensively and they could hit threes,
- 21:35Speaker 1: so they're a pretty good team. Man. Nichols lost at
- 21:39Speaker 1: home to Rio Grande Valley by twenty points and actually
- 21:44Speaker 1: beat them on the road by two early in the season,
- 21:48Speaker 1: maybe before teams kind of settled in and we knew
- 21:50Speaker 1: where they really were. Because Rio Grande Valley is definitely
- 21:53Speaker 1: the better team here. They're an eight and a half
- 21:54Speaker 1: point favorite. The public is coming in on Nickels seventy
- 21:58Speaker 1: five percent of the tickets and only fifty two of
- 22:00Speaker 1: the cash. I know Nichols does have the advantage of
- 22:03Speaker 1: having played yesterday, but I don't know, man, this one
- 22:07Speaker 1: I think is a bit more of a mismatch. I know,
- 22:10Speaker 1: Real Grande Valley is cold because they haven't played recently.
- 22:13Speaker 1: They did finish the season winning four of their last five,
- 22:16Speaker 1: with the only loss being against MacNeice, so that momentum
- 22:19Speaker 1: might be slowed down a little bit. They did win
- 22:21Speaker 1: on the road by twenty, you know, so there are
- 22:24Speaker 1: a lot of edges that do go to Nickels in
- 22:26Speaker 1: this game. This is a tough one. The market read
- 22:30Speaker 1: is saying to lay it with Rio Grande Valley. Total
- 22:33Speaker 1: is fairly low in the one forties. You know. I
- 22:38Speaker 1: kind of disagree with the market read in this one.
- 22:40Speaker 1: I don't know. I went way back and forth on
- 22:42Speaker 1: this one. I guess I would kind of lean towards
- 22:44Speaker 1: Nichols plus the points because they do have the advantage
- 22:46Speaker 1: of having played last night. But that one, I don't
- 22:49Speaker 1: like that one as much as I would lean towards.
- 22:52Speaker 1: I would have a stronger lean on New Orleans. Real
- 22:57Speaker 1: Grande Valley is a more legit team than a MCC
- 23:00Speaker 1: I think that game. Those games are only on ESPN plus.
- 23:05Speaker 1: At ESPN two, we will have another auto bid clinched
- 23:07Speaker 1: here with Georgia Southern and Troy and the Sun Belt
- 23:11Speaker 1: at seven pm. Georgia Southern wins again. Now they took
- 23:15Speaker 1: out another overrated team in Marshall. Georgia Southern had already
- 23:20Speaker 1: beaten Marshall both games during the regular season, so I
- 23:23Speaker 1: actually liked Georgia Southern in that game yesterday. Marshall. They're overrated,
- 23:27Speaker 1: they're not a good defense. But now we get a
- 23:30Speaker 1: situation where Georgia Southern is now having to play a
- 23:33Speaker 1: sixth game in six days. I don't know if we've
- 23:36Speaker 1: ever seen this before in tournament history. I'm not sure
- 23:41Speaker 1: Georgia Southern played on the the well, they didn't play
- 23:44Speaker 1: on the first night of the tournament. They played on
- 23:46Speaker 1: the second night, because that was when I gave you,
- 23:48Speaker 1: guys old dominion. I love how I'm now owned four
- 23:51Speaker 1: in my conference tournament plays. That's just awesome. We could
- 23:54Speaker 1: have had old dominion. Man, Like I thought it was
- 23:57Speaker 1: an advantage to them. I thought they were Georgia Southern
- 24:00Speaker 1: was a very overrated team. But once you get this momentum,
- 24:04Speaker 1: you start picking off teams that haven't played yet, you
- 24:07Speaker 1: know what I mean. So Georgia Southern, in every single
- 24:10Speaker 1: game in the tournament has played a team that didn't
- 24:14Speaker 1: play yet in the tournament, you know what I mean.
- 24:16Speaker 1: So they're catching all of these teams cold, and Georgia
- 24:19Speaker 1: Southern just had it fatigued yet. But now they're playing
- 24:21Speaker 1: a sixth game in six days, and now they're playing
- 24:24Speaker 1: a team that did play a game in the tournament. Troy.
- 24:27Speaker 1: Troy played yesterday in the semifinals and they beat Southern
- 24:30Speaker 1: Miss didn't look particularly great in doing so, one by eight.
- 24:34Speaker 1: So now Troy has a game under their belt. These
- 24:37Speaker 1: games are all in Pensacola, Florida. Troy, Troy is the
- 24:43Speaker 1: better team, man, And now I think the advantage that
- 24:45Speaker 1: Georgia Southern has had all throughout this tournament except for
- 24:48Speaker 1: the first game where they won against Georgia, where they
- 24:51Speaker 1: won against Old Dominion, every game after that they were
- 24:54Speaker 1: playing against a team that hadn't played yet in the tournament,
- 24:58Speaker 1: so they had that advantage. Now they don't have that
- 25:00Speaker 1: advantage here against Troy, and Troy is definitely the better team.
- 25:05Speaker 1: During the regular season. Troy, actually they won at Georgia
- 25:08Speaker 1: Southern by five, which wasn't that impressive. That was the
- 25:11Speaker 1: only time they played this year, I believe. But Troy
- 25:14Speaker 1: is definitely the better team they were. I'm assuming they
- 25:17Speaker 1: were a road favored in this game. Yeah, they're four
- 25:19Speaker 1: and a half on the road. The number tonight opened
- 25:23Speaker 1: at five, so that number was really low, but it
- 25:25Speaker 1: immediately got bought up. So Troy is now seven point favorite,
- 25:29Speaker 1: which I think is more of an accurate line. But
- 25:32Speaker 1: I would probably still lay it. Man, at some point,
- 25:34Speaker 1: Georgia Southern, they just the fatigue is gonna catch up
- 25:38Speaker 1: to them at some point, man, Like this is a gauntlet.
- 25:41Speaker 1: I know they played a couple of teams that are
- 25:43Speaker 1: definitely overrated, like Coastal and Marshall. Those teams are overrated.
- 25:48Speaker 1: But at some point, I think they run out of steam,
- 25:50Speaker 1: and I think it's here Troy, you know, having a
- 25:53Speaker 1: game under their belt now yesterday, They're not gonna be
- 25:55Speaker 1: tired yet. And now it's a good situation for Troy,
- 25:58Speaker 1: right because they had a lot of time before yesterday.
- 26:01Speaker 1: They played one game so they won't be tired, and
- 26:03Speaker 1: they got used to the venue, they got the nerrors
- 26:06Speaker 1: out of the way. I think Troy wins this game.
- 26:09Speaker 1: I kind of think they win it pretty easily, to
- 26:11Speaker 1: be honest. They're they're like clearly the better team here,
- 26:14Speaker 1: eighty three percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
- 26:16Speaker 1: casual on Troy. I would lay it with Troy if
- 26:18Speaker 1: I was gonna play it. But five and a half
- 26:20Speaker 1: a lot more tempting than seven, which is now on,
- 26:23Speaker 1: you know, a key number, multiple possessions, and these championship
- 26:27Speaker 1: games a lot of times they get kind of intense.
- 26:30Speaker 1: I mean, you could see it going both ways. Man.
- 26:32Speaker 1: But of course Georgia Southern is not going to be
- 26:34Speaker 1: lacking in motivation, you know what I mean? And I
- 26:36Speaker 1: believe they are a team that's never made the tournament before.
- 26:39Speaker 1: Troy of course has including last year. The market has
- 26:43Speaker 1: flipped around, and now it looks like at the seven
- 26:45Speaker 1: it looks like there is some buyback on Georgia Southern.
- 26:48Speaker 1: But yeah, I would lay it with Troy in that
- 26:51Speaker 1: game if I was gonna play it. Uh. I've gotten
- 26:54Speaker 1: in trouble with some of those rest mismatches in these tournaments,
- 26:59Speaker 1: but that one, I think is clearly pretty much in
- 27:01Speaker 1: favor of Troy there all right, Like who would have
- 27:05Speaker 1: thought that you'd wind up with a team playing a
- 27:07Speaker 1: six game in six days against a team only playing
- 27:09Speaker 1: their second game in two days. These Conference Sartum structures
- 27:13Speaker 1: are so dumb man. But yes, I think Midnight strikes
- 27:18Speaker 1: on the Cinderella that is Georgia Southern. There they're really
- 27:22Speaker 1: not good. I mean, I can show you here Troy,
- 27:23Speaker 1: even though they're a little bit of a lucky team,
- 27:26Speaker 1: they also play slow, by the way, which is not
- 27:28Speaker 1: what Georgia Southern wants to do. Georgia Southern clearly worse.
- 27:32Speaker 1: They're outside the top two hundred. They're a much luckier
- 27:34Speaker 1: team according to Kempum. Still they're outside the top three hundred.
- 27:38Speaker 1: Deepfense and they play fast. So with Troy, you're getting
- 27:42Speaker 1: an offense that's almost as good as Georgia Southern's, but
- 27:45Speaker 1: you're getting the considerably better deepense, and you're getting a
- 27:48Speaker 1: team that should be able to slow the game down
- 27:50Speaker 1: and frustrate Georgia Southern, which, by the way, that's not
- 27:53Speaker 1: what Marshall is. So Marshall they go fast, which is
- 27:56Speaker 1: and they play no deepfense. Troy is like almost totally
- 28:00Speaker 1: the opposite from that. Not that their defense is great,
- 28:03Speaker 1: but it's a lot better than Marshall's and a lot
- 28:05Speaker 1: better than Georgia southerns. So yeah, I think Troy should
- 28:08Speaker 1: handle it in that one man. Then ESPN at seven
- 28:12Speaker 1: PM is carrying the SoCon final. Both of these teams
- 28:15Speaker 1: looked like they were gonna lose yesterday and they both escaped.
- 28:18Speaker 1: So I do think at this point we are getting
- 28:21Speaker 1: the best two teams in this conference. I think at
- 28:24Speaker 1: this point playing each other. This conference has been way
- 28:28Speaker 1: down this year though. Firman they were losing a lot
- 28:32Speaker 1: of that game to UNC Greensboro and they were able
- 28:34Speaker 1: to wind up escaping with the win. And then East
- 28:36Speaker 1: Tennessee State they were losing even more of their game
- 28:39Speaker 1: against Western Carolina yes today. Western Carolina gave them a
- 28:43Speaker 1: ton of problems this year, beating them both of the
- 28:45Speaker 1: times they played during the regular season. East Tennessee I
- 28:48Speaker 1: don't even know how they won, to be honest, because
- 28:50Speaker 1: they were losing that game by six with like three
- 28:53Speaker 1: minutes to go and they somehow won the game. So
- 28:57Speaker 1: both teams are coming off escapes, so both teams are
- 29:00Speaker 1: going to show up for this. East Tennessee is the
- 29:03Speaker 1: slightly better team here, but as you'll see, the line
- 29:06Speaker 1: is not huge on them. Where are they at there?
- 29:10Speaker 1: They are They're only a one and a half point
- 29:12Speaker 1: favorite here, although it looks like the public is on Furman.
- 29:15Speaker 1: The public might kind of remember, oh, Furman, that was
- 29:18Speaker 1: that team that beat Virginia in the tournament. They pulled
- 29:20Speaker 1: off that up set like two years ago, three years ago, whatever, Well,
- 29:24Speaker 1: yeah that was Furman. But they're not the same team
- 29:27Speaker 1: this year as a few years ago, same school. Of course,
- 29:32Speaker 1: sixty tickets fifty eight percent of the cash on Furman,
- 29:35Speaker 1: So it looks like the money the market Reid is
- 29:38Speaker 1: indicating on East Tennessee State. They're only one and a
- 29:40Speaker 1: half point favorite here according to ken Bomb. I think
- 29:44Speaker 1: they are slightly better than that. He's got East Tennessee
- 29:48Speaker 1: decent one forty seven overall, not horrible, but usually you
- 29:51Speaker 1: see a team in this conference better than that, and
- 29:54Speaker 1: East Tennessee is how the highest power rated team in
- 29:57Speaker 1: this conference. They're balanced, They're not much better on offense
- 30:01Speaker 1: or defense. Furhman is pretty balanced too, They're just somewhat worse.
- 30:05Speaker 1: They do crack the top two hundred in ken Bom,
- 30:09Speaker 1: and actually ken Bom has them below Mercer, so I
- 30:11Speaker 1: think he has them as the third best team in
- 30:13Speaker 1: the conference, but he has them pretty close to Mercer.
- 30:16Speaker 1: East Tennessee State better than both fairly considerably actually, though
- 30:20Speaker 1: I think he only is East Tennessee winning this game
- 30:21Speaker 1: by two Furman. I mean they play slow, they're you know,
- 30:27Speaker 1: middle luck team. According to kem Bam, East Tennessee plays
- 30:31Speaker 1: pretty slow as well, and they're an they're less lucky.
- 30:35Speaker 1: So you know, I mean, I guess I'll lean to
- 30:38Speaker 1: East Tennessee. I mean, you're getting the better team on
- 30:40Speaker 1: both sides of the ball there. I wouldn't be shocked
- 30:43Speaker 1: if Furman won, though obviously, you know, I mean it's
- 30:47Speaker 1: a it's kind of an I don't know, the whole
- 30:49Speaker 1: conference has been down this year. Man, Like you're looking
- 30:51Speaker 1: at one of those teams probably getting a fourteen seed
- 30:54Speaker 1: and probably would not be a team that I would
- 30:57Speaker 1: uh pick to like pull off some sort of upset
- 31:00Speaker 1: against what the current three seeds are. All right, espn
- 31:04Speaker 1: U At seven pm, the Horizon League continues. This is
- 31:08Speaker 1: a very very weird tournament because we have a structure
- 31:11Speaker 1: where now Northern Kentucky is playing right State. I told
- 31:14Speaker 1: you whoever won Northern Kentucky against Oakland, whoever won that
- 31:18Speaker 1: game I thought was going to potentially make a run
- 31:20Speaker 1: in this tournament. Northern Kentucky beat green Bay last night,
- 31:24Speaker 1: So Doug Gottlieb, you know, good turnaround from him with
- 31:28Speaker 1: Green Bay this year, but they couldn't get it done
- 31:31Speaker 1: against Northern Kentucky team and I think is better than
- 31:33Speaker 1: they are, which I told you I thought Northern Kentucky
- 31:36Speaker 1: would win. They did. Now they're playing Right State, who
- 31:40Speaker 1: is the one seed, although I actually think Right State
- 31:42Speaker 1: is not as good as Robert Morris at this point.
- 31:45Speaker 1: But this is a very strange set up here where
- 31:47Speaker 1: you have now Northern Kentucky played yesterday, but they also
- 31:50Speaker 1: had a bunch of days off before that, so I
- 31:53Speaker 1: think they're at an advantage again because again you don't
- 31:56Speaker 1: want to have too much rest. And Right State they
- 31:58Speaker 1: played one game in the tur tournament early on they
- 32:01Speaker 1: beat Cleveland State, who's not good, and Right State hasn't
- 32:05Speaker 1: played since then, you know what I mean it, So
- 32:07Speaker 1: Right State they haven't been challenge in the tournament yet
- 32:09Speaker 1: and they haven't played for a week. So now you
- 32:12Speaker 1: have a Right State team that might come into this
- 32:14Speaker 1: game cold again, whereas Northern Kentucky played yesterday and I
- 32:17Speaker 1: don't think they'll be tired because they had almost a
- 32:20Speaker 1: week off prior to that. They had like five days off,
- 32:23Speaker 1: So I think the advantage does go to Northern Kentucky
- 32:26Speaker 1: here in this one. I wouldn't be shocked at all
- 32:28Speaker 1: if they won this game. That Soacon game, by the way,
- 32:31Speaker 1: I forgot to mention, is in Asheville, North Carolina. This
- 32:34Speaker 1: Horizon game I'm talking about right now is in Indianapolis.
- 32:38Speaker 1: And that's the other thing. Right State hasn't played in
- 32:41Speaker 1: Indianapolis yet either in this tournament because in that first game,
- 32:45Speaker 1: I think they played at home I'm pretty sure against
- 32:49Speaker 1: Cleveland State. So Northern Kentucky has another advantage here because
- 32:53Speaker 1: they played in Indianapolis yesterday and Right State has not
- 32:57Speaker 1: played in this arena yet. So yeah, I like Northern
- 33:01Speaker 1: Kentucky in this one. Man, the money's completely disagree with me.
- 33:05Speaker 1: But it's a pick em price too, And you gotta
- 33:08Speaker 1: think people are gonna look at this and see, wait
- 33:10Speaker 1: a minute, what the one seed versus the seventh seed? Like,
- 33:14Speaker 1: how could the seventh seed? Like it's how could you
- 33:17Speaker 1: have a pick the winner in the one versus the seven?
- 33:19Speaker 1: You know what I mean? But the oddsviggers are telling
- 33:22Speaker 1: you there's not much of a difference between these two teams.
- 33:24Speaker 1: I like Northern Kentucky in this one. Tickets are fifty
- 33:28Speaker 1: to fifty Right State seventy six percent of the cash,
- 33:30Speaker 1: So the money is coming in on Right State. I'm
- 33:32Speaker 1: assuming that's numbers, guys, because ken bumb will definitely have
- 33:35Speaker 1: Right State as the better team. He's got them one
- 33:38Speaker 1: forty fourth. He has Northern Kentucky actually thirty ranking spots lower.
- 33:42Speaker 1: So he definitely does have Right State winning this game.
- 33:44Speaker 1: But so maybe the odds makers are actually being really
- 33:47Speaker 1: smart about this and they have skewed the line because
- 33:50Speaker 1: they know how much of it and how much of
- 33:52Speaker 1: an advantage that is for Northern Kentucky. But we're just
- 33:55Speaker 1: talking about pick the winner here, man, And if the
- 33:58Speaker 1: line was, you know it, if neither team had that
- 34:01Speaker 1: like advantage that Northern Kentucky has here, the line in
- 34:04Speaker 1: this one would probably still be like Right State minus two.
- 34:06Speaker 1: So you'd probably still be like, pick the winner in
- 34:09Speaker 1: this one. I'd rather have the two points, but I
- 34:11Speaker 1: would lean Northern Kentucky in that one. Jeff, I do
- 34:15Speaker 1: not agree with that. I agree with Northern Kentucky. I
- 34:18Speaker 1: do not agree with Georgia. Southern Troy just won yesterday.
- 34:22Speaker 1: It's not like they're not. Seriously, Georgia Southern is having
- 34:25Speaker 1: to play a six game in six days now, and
- 34:29Speaker 1: Troy is like, the way, way better team. I've been
- 34:32Speaker 1: saying that Georgia Southern is a fraud this whole time,
- 34:35Speaker 1: but they played two other fraudulent teams. Both of the
- 34:38Speaker 1: teams they just played the last two two the last
- 34:41Speaker 1: two nights they played, they played another fraudulent team, Marshall
- 34:45Speaker 1: and Coastal Carolina. Those teams suck. Troy is way better
- 34:49Speaker 1: than those two teams, and they're a completely different style
- 34:52Speaker 1: of team because they actually have a defense. So yeah,
- 34:55Speaker 1: I do not agree with Georgia Southern at all. I
- 34:58Speaker 1: do agree with Northern Kentucky all right. The other game
- 35:05Speaker 1: in the horizon is where my best bet is gonna be.
- 35:08Speaker 1: I know it sounded like it should have been Northern Kentucky,
- 35:10Speaker 1: but you know, the number is kind of iffy. You
- 35:14Speaker 1: got to take everything into account, man, even though sometimes
- 35:18Speaker 1: I'll just ride the situation anyway. But we're gonna lay
- 35:22Speaker 1: the points. With Robert Morris, I think they're the best
- 35:24Speaker 1: team in this conference. This is the three versus the
- 35:26Speaker 1: two seed here. Both of these teams have not played
- 35:29Speaker 1: for like almost a week, I think, because this is
- 35:32Speaker 1: that other side of the matchup where Wright State and
- 35:35Speaker 1: you know has been off for a long time, and
- 35:37Speaker 1: we knew they were gonna get the winner of yesterday's game.
- 35:40Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy Robert Morris both advanced. Neither team has played
- 35:44Speaker 1: in this arena yet, so that's not an advantage to
- 35:48Speaker 1: one team or the other. So this is a pretty
- 35:49Speaker 1: pure handicap here. And I don't think Detroit Mercy is
- 35:53Speaker 1: anywhere close to the third best team in this conference.
- 35:56Speaker 1: I think they suck and last time out they look
- 36:00Speaker 1: good against Milwaukee, But Detroit Mercy, this was kind of
- 36:04Speaker 1: a misleading result. Man. Milwaukee couldn't shoot at all in
- 36:07Speaker 1: the game. They actually had six more field goal ats
- 36:10Speaker 1: empts in Detroit Mercy and made seven fewer, and they
- 36:14Speaker 1: were horrible at the free throw line. They shot thirty
- 36:17Speaker 1: seven percent from the field versus Detroit fifty four percent
- 36:21Speaker 1: twenty three percent from three for Milwaukee. Milwaukee had a
- 36:24Speaker 1: horrific shooting game. Man, And yes, I know Detroit Mercy
- 36:27Speaker 1: did out rebound them, but this game, the final score,
- 36:31Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy winning my twenty one kind of misleading man.
- 36:35Speaker 1: And Robert Morris they won, you know, kind of less
- 36:39Speaker 1: impressively against Youngstown, but I'm fine with that. Now. I
- 36:45Speaker 1: know having time off could hurt your momentum, but I
- 36:47Speaker 1: think that would apply to both teams here. Both teams
- 36:50Speaker 1: were pretty hot. You know, both teams won a ton
- 36:53Speaker 1: of games recently, So the time off isn't gonna hurt
- 36:56Speaker 1: one team more than the other. I don't believe. Oh yeah,
- 36:59Speaker 1: this is the turn them as a sponsor by Barba Saw.
- 37:01Speaker 1: That's right, we're gonna shave while we watch these games. Man,
- 37:05Speaker 1: Robert Morris, they were clearly the considerably better team in
- 37:10Speaker 1: both games during the regular season against Detroit. If you
- 37:13Speaker 1: dig into them, they won on the road by eight
- 37:16Speaker 1: at Detroit. But if you dig into this box score,
- 37:18Speaker 1: first of all, Robert Morris were minus three and a
- 37:21Speaker 1: half and now they're only minus five on a neutral
- 37:24Speaker 1: and they were three and a half on the road.
- 37:26Speaker 1: So I think that does indicate you're getting a little
- 37:28Speaker 1: bit of live value here. It looks like they probably
- 37:29Speaker 1: should be about a six point favorite here. And if
- 37:32Speaker 1: you look at this game, Detroit, Mercy shot fifty four
- 37:36Speaker 1: from three point range, so they had a really hot
- 37:40Speaker 1: shooting night from three Robert Morris still out rebounded them
- 37:44Speaker 1: by ten points, and Robert Morris won the game. Of course,
- 37:47Speaker 1: Robert Morris did go to the free throw line six
- 37:49Speaker 1: more times, but still and they had more field goal
- 37:52Speaker 1: attempts in the game. But that's more of a predictable measure.
- 37:55Speaker 1: But the most predictable measure was they dominated the rebounding battle,
- 37:59Speaker 1: so I do like to see that, and they won
- 38:01Speaker 1: despite Detroit Mersey hitting an exorbitant percentage of their threes,
- 38:06Speaker 1: which is probably not gonna happen again. Detroit Mercy doesn't
- 38:09Speaker 1: really take that many threes, I don't think, but in
- 38:12Speaker 1: that game, they hit a lot of them, and that
- 38:14Speaker 1: actually made the game closer than it should have been.
- 38:17Speaker 1: So that was pretty much a dominant effort from Robert Morris.
- 38:20Speaker 1: Then when they played at Robert Morris, Robert Morris won
- 38:23Speaker 1: that game two by eleven. But this was not misleading either.
- 38:27Speaker 1: Robert Morris won the rebounding battle again, although not by
- 38:29Speaker 1: as much. They did go to the free throw line
- 38:32Speaker 1: way more again Robert Morris. This game, Detroit Mercy didn't
- 38:36Speaker 1: hit any of their threes, but Robert Morris just won
- 38:39Speaker 1: every aspect of this game. Dude, they went to the
- 38:41Speaker 1: free throw line, where they hit more threes, They won
- 38:43Speaker 1: the turnover battle, you know, the field goal percentage. Excuse
- 38:49Speaker 1: me the they had more field goal at times. It's
- 38:52Speaker 1: just that if you look at the game statistically, Robert
- 38:54Speaker 1: Morris should have won by more than they did. And
- 38:57Speaker 1: that was mostly what happened. Was it was they didn't
- 38:59Speaker 1: shoot well. That was the one thing. They shot poorly
- 39:02Speaker 1: from the field in general, thirty eight percent from the field.
- 39:06Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna change here on this one.
- 39:08Speaker 1: I think Robert Morris is clearly the better team here.
- 39:10Speaker 1: They're by the way, they're eight and a half point
- 39:12Speaker 1: favorites in that game at home, so I think five
- 39:15Speaker 1: is pretty cheap here. Man. I'm actually kind of surprised
- 39:19Speaker 1: Detroit even made it out of the first round of
- 39:21Speaker 1: this tournament. They were a small favorite in that one,
- 39:23Speaker 1: but I thought they were gonna get bounced immediately. I
- 39:26Speaker 1: think Robert Morris is gonna win this tournament at this point,
- 39:29Speaker 1: eighty five percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the
- 39:31Speaker 1: cash on Robert Morris, and then so the money is
- 39:34Speaker 1: coming in on them, even though their public side and
- 39:37Speaker 1: if you look at ken Bam he's got Robert Morris
- 39:39Speaker 1: a pretty balanced team. He has them as the highest
- 39:42Speaker 1: rated team in the conference. Uh, they cracked the top
- 39:45Speaker 1: on one P fifty overall and offensively they're close to
- 39:48Speaker 1: doing it on deepfense. I know he has them lucky,
- 39:51Speaker 1: but Detroit is even luckier, which I'll show you in
- 39:53Speaker 1: a minute. And Robert Morris plays slow, Detroit Mercy wants
- 39:58Speaker 1: to go fast and they're deep is considerably worse and actually,
- 40:02Speaker 1: in fact, Detroy Mercy they're outside the top two hundred
- 40:05Speaker 1: at Kent Bomb and they're worse than Robert Morris on
- 40:08Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. Robert Morris is better on
- 40:11Speaker 1: offense and significantly better on deepfense, even though both teams
- 40:15Speaker 1: are actually better offensively than defensively. Also think Robert Morris
- 40:19Speaker 1: should be able to slow this down and frustrate to
- 40:21Speaker 1: Troy Mercy because they want to go fast. This is
- 40:24Speaker 1: definitely a different animal than Milwaukee was. Man. So yeah,
- 40:28Speaker 1: I like Robert Morris. Here. Detroit Mersey thirty first in
- 40:32Speaker 1: lock according to Kent Bomb. So both teams are very lucky,
- 40:34Speaker 1: but Detroit Mercy even more so. We're doing it, We're
- 40:38Speaker 1: laying it with Robert Morris. No, well, I mean the pressure,
- 40:46Speaker 1: all right. Yeah, but Troy is the more experienced team. Dude.
- 40:49Speaker 1: They've done like they did this last year, so you
- 40:52Speaker 1: know they're not going to be intimidated by it or
- 40:55Speaker 1: anything like that. Jeff, I think you're completely wrong. Stop dude,
- 41:00Speaker 1: Stop buying into the Cinderella stories. Man, that's how you
- 41:03Speaker 1: lose money. I told you that, like Drake was gonna lose.
- 41:07Speaker 1: I was correct about that. These Cinderella's they don't win
- 41:10Speaker 1: the whole thing, you know what I mean, clock strikes
- 41:13Speaker 1: midnight on these Cinderella's. I don't think I've ever seen
- 41:16Speaker 1: a team have to play a six game and six
- 41:18Speaker 1: nights before it's gonna catch up to them. And now
- 41:21Speaker 1: that Troy won last night and they have their bearings,
- 41:23Speaker 1: I would not be shocked if Troy won that game
- 41:25Speaker 1: by twenty five points. Troy is way better. And I
- 41:29Speaker 1: don't know if did you watch Troy yesterday? That team
- 41:32Speaker 1: is really really good like they are. Yeah, well, Northern
- 41:38Speaker 1: iowall play slow. That's the other thing. Northern iowall play
- 41:42Speaker 1: slow and they play defense, which is the complete office.
- 41:45Speaker 1: And Northern I was a legitimate team. They're actually really
- 41:48Speaker 1: good You know who's not good Georgia Southern. You know
- 41:50Speaker 1: who's not good on defense, Georgia Southern. You know who
- 41:53Speaker 1: doesn't play slow? Georgia Southern. They play fast every single night.
- 41:58Speaker 1: That makes you way more tire than playing slow. So no,
- 42:02Speaker 1: there's no comparison between those two teams, and they're having
- 42:04Speaker 1: to play two extra games. They're the way worse team
- 42:07Speaker 1: and they play a completely different style. So no, I
- 42:10Speaker 1: don't buy that argument whatsoever. And dude, you didn't. You
- 42:14Speaker 1: didn't say anything about Northern Iowa. Everybody wanted Drake. Nobody
- 42:18Speaker 1: was talking about Northern Iowa because nobody likes those slow
- 42:20Speaker 1: paced teams. No, what are we talking about here? And
- 42:24Speaker 1: Georgia Southern looked good last night because they scored a
- 42:26Speaker 1: shit ton of points again against Marshall. Well yeah, that's
- 42:29Speaker 1: because Marshall is an ass defense and an ass team
- 42:34Speaker 1: and they couldn't beat Georgia Southern anytime they played them
- 42:36Speaker 1: this year. Marshall sucks. Troy, Dude, Troy was going all
- 42:42Speaker 1: out in that game against Southern. Miss. I don't know
- 42:44Speaker 1: if you saw that, but they were diving all over
- 42:46Speaker 1: the floor for loose balls. They were going crazy, Dude,
- 42:50Speaker 1: that Troy team. They want to win this thing. They
- 42:52Speaker 1: were putting in a massive amount of effort in that
- 42:54Speaker 1: game last night, which I know it makes it so like, oh,
- 42:57Speaker 1: that means they're gonna be tired out. No, because they're
- 43:00Speaker 1: playing a team that's played five nights in a row
- 43:03Speaker 1: and Troy only played once, and Troy didn't look particularly
- 43:08Speaker 1: good with the final score in that game. All right,
- 43:12Speaker 1: where are we at here? We're almost done with college
- 43:15Speaker 1: basketball here and I gotta do NHL and NBA. We're
- 43:18Speaker 1: gonna talk about the Big Sky X, which is still
- 43:20Speaker 1: on ESPN. Plus Northern Colorado and Montana. This is the
- 43:25Speaker 1: five versus the four. I believe in the seedings here.
- 43:30Speaker 1: These teams split the regular season, but Montana won the game.
- 43:34Speaker 1: Early in the season, Montana won against Northern Colorado. Northern
- 43:38Speaker 1: Colorado started out the season not playing well, and they've
- 43:41Speaker 1: been playing way like they've been playing completely up to
- 43:44Speaker 1: their potential more recently. They're the better team, by the way,
- 43:47Speaker 1: if you didn't know, Northern Colorado, and in fact, they've
- 43:50Speaker 1: been considered the better team the whole time. They were
- 43:52Speaker 1: actually favored on the road at Montana in the game
- 43:56Speaker 1: that they lost Northern Colorado actually out rebounded them in
- 43:59Speaker 1: the game. Colorado had a terrible shooting game and there
- 44:02Speaker 1: was a massive free throw disparity in that game, so
- 44:05Speaker 1: it was a misleading result. Man Northern Colorado had nineteen
- 44:09Speaker 1: more field goal attempts in the game. When you have that,
- 44:11Speaker 1: it's highly unlikely you're going to lose the game. But
- 44:15Speaker 1: Northern Colorado only hit thirty seven percent of them. And
- 44:18Speaker 1: Montana had thirty eight free throw attempts and they hit
- 44:21Speaker 1: thirty five of them. They were almost plus twenty from
- 44:24Speaker 1: the free throw line in that game against Northern Colorado.
- 44:27Speaker 1: That's a major outlier. That's some home biased refing there.
- 44:30Speaker 1: Northern Colorado was actually the better team in that game,
- 44:34Speaker 1: even though they lost. And then the more recent matchup,
- 44:38Speaker 1: Unfortunately for laking Northern Colorado here because I do the
- 44:41Speaker 1: most recent game they played, Northern Colorado absolutely, they just
- 44:45Speaker 1: destroyed Montana. They won by almost thirty points at home,
- 44:49Speaker 1: and again they were the better team. I mean, a
- 44:51Speaker 1: thirty point win is always going to be kind of misleading,
- 44:54Speaker 1: but they won the rebounding battle. Neither team went to
- 44:57Speaker 1: the line a lot in this one. Northern Colorado shot better.
- 45:00Speaker 1: Montana didn't shoot well at all, so that was a
- 45:02Speaker 1: little bit of an outlier. I guess there Northern Colorado
- 45:05Speaker 1: had more field goal attempts again, but you know, they
- 45:09Speaker 1: still were the clearly better team in the game. But
- 45:12Speaker 1: my problem is that they're playing each other again after that.
- 45:14Speaker 1: That was the last time they played, so there is
- 45:16Speaker 1: kind of a zigzag component to this, where you know,
- 45:21Speaker 1: Montana might work on fixing some things. It's just that
- 45:23Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to be enough, because
- 45:25Speaker 1: Northern Colorado is definitely the better team here, and people
- 45:29Speaker 1: might not think that because oh, they're the lower seeded team.
- 45:32Speaker 1: Why are they favored, Well, I'm not even sure they're
- 45:35Speaker 1: favored by enough to be honest. If Northern Colorado is
- 45:38Speaker 1: a one and a half way favorite on the road,
- 45:40Speaker 1: and I think they might have been like eight and
- 45:42Speaker 1: a half at home against Montana, the fact that they're
- 45:46Speaker 1: three and a half here, I think it's a cheap price.
- 45:48Speaker 1: The money is coming into Northern Colorado, and I will
- 45:51Speaker 1: agree with it. I just worry about the fact that
- 45:53Speaker 1: Montana might be able to make some adjustments here. But
- 45:56Speaker 1: I like Northern Colorado. I think they're dangerous. I think
- 46:00Speaker 1: if they get by this game. I think they're really
- 46:03Speaker 1: a threat to win this tournament. These games are all
- 46:06Speaker 1: in Boise, fifty percent of tickets around Montana, seventy five
- 46:10Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Northern Colorado. The money's on
- 46:13Speaker 1: Northern Colorado. Northern Colorado, excuse me, I agree with it.
- 46:18Speaker 1: You know, they're very clearly the better team. Not only
- 46:21Speaker 1: are they better the better team, they're the second highest
- 46:24Speaker 1: power rated team of Granney Kenbaum in this conference, right
- 46:26Speaker 1: behind Montana State, who I know lost last night. But
- 46:31Speaker 1: Montana State lost to a team that had played once
- 46:34Speaker 1: in the tournament already. They lost to an underrated i
- 46:37Speaker 1: Idaho team. These teams have not played in the tournament.
- 46:41Speaker 1: Neither of these teams have played in this tournament yet,
- 46:43Speaker 1: so there's no advantage to one team or the other
- 46:45Speaker 1: that way. I like Northern Colorado. I'm just a little
- 46:48Speaker 1: bit worried about the zigzag there. But the money is
- 46:51Speaker 1: all over Northern Colorado, and yes, I'm going to agree
- 46:55Speaker 1: with that. Then the late game in the Big Sky
- 46:57Speaker 1: is Weaver stayed in Eastern Washington Weaver State. Neither neither
- 47:02Speaker 1: of these teams have played yet in this tournament either.
- 47:04Speaker 1: I think this is the three versus the six. It's
- 47:07Speaker 1: a weird tournament structure. Weaver State lost their last game
- 47:11Speaker 1: of the regular season to the one seed, Portland State,
- 47:13Speaker 1: who is still alive after last night. They beat a
- 47:17Speaker 1: pretty bad Idaho State team, though the Idaho State had
- 47:20Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge and that they had
- 47:22Speaker 1: already played in the tournament now Eastern Washington. When this
- 47:28Speaker 1: tournament opened, Eastern Washington had the best odds to win it,
- 47:32Speaker 1: but I did not like them to win it, and
- 47:34Speaker 1: they're really not that big of a favorite here looking
- 47:36Speaker 1: at what these teams did during the regular season. Weaver
- 47:40Speaker 1: State lost the most recent game at Eastern Washington pretty
- 47:43Speaker 1: badly by eighteen points. And I believe they won the
- 47:46Speaker 1: home game against them earlier in the season. Yeah, they did,
- 47:48Speaker 1: They won by eleven, so kind of some disparate results there.
- 47:52Speaker 1: The home team won each matchup by double digits. Eastern
- 47:56Speaker 1: Washington also has not played since the end of the season,
- 47:59Speaker 1: and they were one of the hottest seams in this conference.
- 48:02Speaker 1: They lost their final game to Idaho, which I thought
- 48:05Speaker 1: they you know, I thought they would win that game
- 48:07Speaker 1: because Idaho was locked into the seed, so Idaho didn't
- 48:10Speaker 1: really have that much to play for, and Eastern Washington
- 48:12Speaker 1: was still playing for seeding, so I'm kind of surprised
- 48:14Speaker 1: they lost that game. But I think that's at least
- 48:17Speaker 1: not a bad thing for Easter Washington, because you did
- 48:20Speaker 1: not want to go into this tournament on like a
- 48:22Speaker 1: ten game win streak, you know what I mean, and
- 48:24Speaker 1: then have that break that could disrupt your momentum. Although
- 48:28Speaker 1: I will say that losing your win streak in your
- 48:31Speaker 1: most recent game, I think that's still kind of a problem.
- 48:34Speaker 1: I think that could still disrupt your momentum, and its
- 48:37Speaker 1: still have kind of the same effect here. And the
- 48:39Speaker 1: fact that Uster Washington blew Weaver stayed out in the
- 48:42Speaker 1: most recent game and that was kind of a misleading result.
- 48:47Speaker 1: I kind of like Weaver stayed in this one. Man.
- 48:49Speaker 1: Eastern Washington's a three point favorite, seventy five percent of tickets,
- 48:52Speaker 1: only fifty eight percent of the cash. Yeah, I think
- 48:55Speaker 1: I would take the points with Weaver in this one.
- 48:58Speaker 1: I don't really see Eastern Washington winning this tournament, man,
- 49:00Speaker 1: I don't. I think it's I think Northern Colorado would
- 49:05Speaker 1: be the team that I think is gonna win it now,
- 49:07Speaker 1: although they have to win this game in the zig
- 49:10Speaker 1: Zag Spot tonight, which I think they will, but then
- 49:12Speaker 1: they do have to beat Portland State after that, but
- 49:14Speaker 1: we'll see. Man. So those are my thoughts on the
- 49:18Speaker 1: Big Sky. Then I think I only have one conference
- 49:23Speaker 1: tournament left to talk about, which has one game on
- 49:26Speaker 1: ESPN and then the other game on ESPN two the
- 49:28Speaker 1: late night West Coast Conference games nine pm. We have
- 49:32Speaker 1: this overrated Oregon State team having to now play Gonzaga.
- 49:36Speaker 1: But Oregon State played last night. Although they pulled off
- 49:39Speaker 1: the upset, I'm not happy about it. I think, as
- 49:42Speaker 1: I told you in that handicap, I think Oregon State's
- 49:45Speaker 1: like the ninth best team in this conference. Even though
- 49:47Speaker 1: they got the four seed. They suck. Do I think
- 49:50Speaker 1: they're gonna beat Gonzaga, No, I don't. They did lose
- 49:54Speaker 1: the one time they played them. They lost in Corp
- 49:56Speaker 1: Vallas by twenty even though it's not really a familiar
- 49:59Speaker 1: venue for Gonzaga, Gonzaga still destroyed them. Now, Oregon State
- 50:04Speaker 1: did get them win last night in an upset. Now
- 50:06Speaker 1: they do have one advantage, which is that they played
- 50:09Speaker 1: in this arena last night. So this tournament is I
- 50:13Speaker 1: believe in the Orleans. It's in Vegas somewhere. Yes, it's
- 50:17Speaker 1: at the Orleans. So the one advantage Oregon State does
- 50:20Speaker 1: have years that they played in this arena last night.
- 50:23Speaker 1: Gonzaga hasn't played since the end of the season, and
- 50:27Speaker 1: the last time they played, they lost a decent win streak,
- 50:29Speaker 1: a six game win streak in a big game against
- 50:32Speaker 1: Saint Mary's. So that is I think kind of a
- 50:34Speaker 1: disadvantage for Goozaga because they had their momentum snapped and
- 50:38Speaker 1: they haven't played since then, so they want to get
- 50:40Speaker 1: out there. You know, you got to get out there
- 50:42Speaker 1: and play again, which Oregon State already did, you know.
- 50:47Speaker 1: I think Goodzaga is gonna win this game, but I
- 50:49Speaker 1: would lean to Oregon State plus the points, although that
- 50:52Speaker 1: would only be because of the situation because Oregon State
- 50:55Speaker 1: did play last night. Like yeah, I mean, I wouldn't
- 50:58Speaker 1: be surprised if Gonzaga want to in this game fairly easily.
- 51:01Speaker 1: They're up to a twenty point favorite, and the money
- 51:04Speaker 1: is actually coming in on them seventy three percent of
- 51:06Speaker 1: tickets eighty four percent of the cash on them, So
- 51:10Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points though the total
- 51:13Speaker 1: is pretty low in the one forties, but yeah. I mean,
- 51:16Speaker 1: I think Gonzaga will win the game. It's just a
- 51:18Speaker 1: matter of covering. I mean, they certainly have the ability
- 51:21Speaker 1: to do it. They're considerably better than Oregon State. But
- 51:24Speaker 1: we will see what happens, man. I mean, it almost
- 51:28Speaker 1: seems destined to be Gonzaga Saint Mary's every single year
- 51:32Speaker 1: in the conference final here. This year might be different, though,
- 51:36Speaker 1: and the difference might come in the second game, which
- 51:38Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of the best games of
- 51:40Speaker 1: the night. Man. You know, I think a lot of
- 51:42Speaker 1: these games do interest me. I think the conference final
- 51:45Speaker 1: games are interesting. I will give them that. The Horizon
- 51:49Speaker 1: games are kind of interesting, you know, colonial somewhat interesting.
- 51:55Speaker 1: I don't think the a Zaga game is particularly interesting,
- 51:57Speaker 1: But I do think this last game is really good.
- 52:01Speaker 1: On ESPN two, Santa Clara and Saint Mary's. Santa Clara
- 52:05Speaker 1: has an advantage that they played last night and they
- 52:07Speaker 1: won against Pacific. They didn't look too impressive and doing so.
- 52:11Speaker 1: I watched some of that game. It was just kind
- 52:13Speaker 1: of a you know, Santa Clara was winning pretty much
- 52:15Speaker 1: the whole game. They never you know, they never had
- 52:19Speaker 1: a huge lead in the game, but they were never
- 52:20Speaker 1: in danger of losing the game either. It was kind
- 52:24Speaker 1: of one of those games there was just you know,
- 52:25Speaker 1: an okay performance out of them. Now, they played Saint
- 52:30Speaker 1: Mary's pretty recently on the road and they lost by
- 52:32Speaker 1: nineteen points. And Santa Clara beat Saint Mary's at home
- 52:36Speaker 1: earlier in the season, so the home team won each matchup.
- 52:41Speaker 1: Santa Clara won by eight at home. So yeah, Saint
- 52:43Speaker 1: Mary's is the somewhat better team. I will agree with that,
- 52:47Speaker 1: which you could you know, you can't really tell that
- 52:49Speaker 1: just by looking at bach by looking at you know,
- 52:51Speaker 1: final results, by looking at final scores, but that is
- 52:54Speaker 1: the case, and you know, so that is in line
- 52:57Speaker 1: with looking at the scores. But Santa Cla Clara has
- 53:00Speaker 1: a motivational edge in this game, I think, where they're
- 53:03Speaker 1: the team that needs to worry more about this game
- 53:06Speaker 1: than Saint Mary's does. I think Saint Mary's can afford
- 53:08Speaker 1: to lose this game and they'll still be in the tournament.
- 53:11Speaker 1: They're like on the seven line in some of the
- 53:13Speaker 1: bracketologies right now, and then they're ranked twenty first in
- 53:16Speaker 1: the country. So I think if Saint Mary's loses this game,
- 53:19Speaker 1: they're still gonna make the tournament, especially because the bubble
- 53:22Speaker 1: teams have just been like they're like, none of them
- 53:25Speaker 1: are seizing the opportunity, except for like TCU. Maybe most
- 53:29Speaker 1: of the teams are playing real bad. Maybe Ohio State
- 53:33Speaker 1: is kind of seizing it. But Santa Clara, they're completely
- 53:37Speaker 1: on the bubble, like a lot of bracketologists have them
- 53:40Speaker 1: in the first four, some of them have them out.
- 53:42Speaker 1: So if they won this game, I think they would
- 53:44Speaker 1: guarantee themselves a spot in the tournament. So that is
- 53:47Speaker 1: a huge deal for Santa Clara, a team that hasn't
- 53:49Speaker 1: been in the tournament for a long long time. They
- 53:52Speaker 1: might have the adjustments to because they lost the most
- 53:54Speaker 1: recent game to Saint Mary's. Saint Mary's is just always here, man,
- 53:58Speaker 1: So yeah, I guess they do have a little bit
- 54:00Speaker 1: of an advantage in experience, but what they the big
- 54:04Speaker 1: another big disadvantage here is that they're on a huge
- 54:06Speaker 1: win streak. They've won seven games in a row, eight
- 54:09Speaker 1: games in a row actually, I think, and their last
- 54:12Speaker 1: two games they beat Santa Clara handily, and then they
- 54:14Speaker 1: beat Gonzaga in their final, which is always a huge deal.
- 54:18Speaker 1: And that was the last game they had and they
- 54:20Speaker 1: haven't played since then, so you could have Saint Mary's
- 54:23Speaker 1: have their momentum stalled although it does mean less to
- 54:26Speaker 1: a game. A team like Saint Mary's having your momentum
- 54:29Speaker 1: stalled out matters less because they're a very slow paced team,
- 54:33Speaker 1: you know what I mean. They play deepfense, so they
- 54:35Speaker 1: can overcome time off more easily than some teams can.
- 54:38Speaker 1: Like Santa Clara likes to play fast, but Santa Clara
- 54:42Speaker 1: does have that game under their belt last night. Yes,
- 54:45Speaker 1: Saint Mary's is the more experienced team here. They have
- 54:49Speaker 1: a coach who's very experienced. But it does seem like
- 54:51Speaker 1: Santa Clara is like it seems like they're usually in
- 54:54Speaker 1: this game. It's just as they always lose it, but
- 54:57Speaker 1: they're better this year and they have more motivation this time.
- 55:00Speaker 1: I'm I like Santa Clara here, man, Saint Mary's a
- 55:03Speaker 1: four point favorite. You know what, I'm considering adding this
- 55:06Speaker 1: to my card. Ninety three percent of tickets, ninety one
- 55:09Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Saint Mary's. You know, I
- 55:12Speaker 1: was I would kind of worry that the public kind
- 55:14Speaker 1: of wants Santa Clara here because they like the story.
- 55:17Speaker 1: They want to see it. You know. Oh, it's a
- 55:19Speaker 1: you know they need to win the game, but that
- 55:21Speaker 1: need to win, you know, yeah, it'll put pressure on
- 55:24Speaker 1: pressure on you whatever, you know, But the thing is
- 55:28Speaker 1: when you need to win, I want to avoid that
- 55:30Speaker 1: team if they're a favorite and they're overvalued. But in
- 55:33Speaker 1: this case, I don't think they're overvalued, you know what
- 55:35Speaker 1: I mean. They're an underdog here, and you know you're
- 55:37Speaker 1: gonna get huge motivation out of them. Now they're a
- 55:41Speaker 1: five point dog. Man. It's it's getting pretty tempting. Ken
- 55:48Speaker 1: Baum has Saint Mary's twenty second in the country, which
- 55:50Speaker 1: is pretty good. They're seventeenth defensively, very good. They're slow team,
- 55:55Speaker 1: as we said, they are fairly lucky. Though at one
- 55:58Speaker 1: twenty seven. He's got Santa Clara thirty seventh, which is
- 56:02Speaker 1: also pretty impressive. They're in the top twenty five on offense,
- 56:05Speaker 1: so they are the better offense. St. Mary's has a
- 56:08Speaker 1: huge defensive edge though, though Santa Clara's not horrible defensively
- 56:13Speaker 1: but not good. Santa clair is a little bit less lucky,
- 56:17Speaker 1: believe it or not, and they play fast. Like I said,
- 56:19Speaker 1: usually I like the slow down teams that play defense
- 56:21Speaker 1: like Saint Mary's, but the situation really really lines up
- 56:25Speaker 1: on Santa Clara for me here and the slow down
- 56:29Speaker 1: team laying points is kind of a different story, right,
- 56:31Speaker 1: Like you usually want the slow down defensive team getting points,
- 56:35Speaker 1: but they're laying points in this case. It's tempting. Men.
- 56:42Speaker 1: Once again, I'll tell you by Ken bamb men, it's
- 56:45Speaker 1: worth it. Let me see what he has as the
- 56:47Speaker 1: number he's got he has this being a three point
- 56:51Speaker 1: win for Saint Mary's. It's pretty tempting, man, this is
- 56:59Speaker 1: very tempting. Actually, yeah, you know what. Let's do it
- 57:07Speaker 1: one more play, Santa Clara. Dude, I gotta get back
- 57:14Speaker 1: on the winning side. Man. If we can go two
- 57:16Speaker 1: and zero in these and get to two and four
- 57:18Speaker 1: in the conference tournament plays, I'll be a lot happier
- 57:21Speaker 1: about it. Santa Clara plus the points. Let's do it.
- 57:23Speaker 1: Let's have two plays today. All right, there we go.
- 57:29Speaker 1: We're fading a massively public team as well. All right,
- 57:32Speaker 1: let's get through all the rest. So I don't have
- 57:34Speaker 1: any plays in the NHL or NBA. I don't like
- 57:36Speaker 1: the board at all, but let's do it. We have
- 57:39Speaker 1: the Kings at the Blue Jackets LA at Columbus. It
- 57:45Speaker 1: would be funnier if it was Vegas at Columbus, because
- 57:47Speaker 1: then you can say it's the Knights of Columba the
- 57:49Speaker 1: Knights at Columbus, not the Knights of Columbus, because the
- 57:54Speaker 1: Knights are not the Columbus team. The Kings had a
- 57:58Speaker 1: close game against Montreal in their last game and lost.
- 58:01Speaker 1: The King's not very good at home, but that was
- 58:03Speaker 1: a tough game for them. Man. I could see this
- 58:05Speaker 1: going both ways though, because they're starting a road trip
- 58:07Speaker 1: off a loss. Sometimes that's a positive thing because you
- 58:10Speaker 1: start the road trip with focus usually, but that was
- 58:14Speaker 1: a tough game against Montreal, so I could see it
- 58:16Speaker 1: being a hangover spot potentially as well for Columbus. Columbus
- 58:21Speaker 1: is coming off a tough game too, but they are
- 58:23Speaker 1: staying at home. They lost a Utah in overtime. They
- 58:27Speaker 1: do have Tampa Bay on deck, which is possibly a
- 58:30Speaker 1: look ahead there. I don't want any part of this game.
- 58:32Speaker 1: The money is coming in a Columbus though, for what
- 58:34Speaker 1: it's worth, roughout for minus one to fifteen and minus
- 58:37Speaker 1: one thirty six, although the Kings are better on the
- 58:39Speaker 1: road than they are at home, so that's something to
- 58:41Speaker 1: keep in mind. There. Sixty three percent of tickets seventy
- 58:44Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on Columbus. You know, I'll
- 58:48Speaker 1: agree with the market there on Columbus, but I really
- 58:51Speaker 1: have almost no opinion on that game. Rangers at Philadelphia,
- 58:55Speaker 1: at least for the Rangers, just like the Kings, but
- 58:58Speaker 1: even more extreme. The Rangers are actually good on the
- 59:01Speaker 1: road and they're horrific at home. They did just lose
- 59:04Speaker 1: on the road though, in New Jersey on Saturday, really ugly,
- 59:07Speaker 1: six to three. So New York. The Rangers could be
- 59:10Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot here. They lost at home
- 59:12Speaker 1: to Philadelphia in the first game out of the Olympic break,
- 59:15Speaker 1: so kind of a recent revenge spot here, or like
- 59:18Speaker 1: recent whatever you want to call it, a zigzag spot
- 59:22Speaker 1: road revenge, which might be stronger with a team like
- 59:24Speaker 1: the Rangers, because they always lose at home and they
- 59:27Speaker 1: win on the road. So, you know, getting the Rangers
- 59:30Speaker 1: having lost at home to Philadelphia and now they're on
- 59:33Speaker 1: the road against them seems like an okay idea. Philadelphia,
- 59:39Speaker 1: they played on Saturday, they won at Pittsburgh, gonna shoot out.
- 59:42Speaker 1: Now they're back at home playing a team they just beat. Recently.
- 59:46Speaker 1: They got Washington on deck, which isn't a huge deal,
- 59:48Speaker 1: but they might overlook a Rangers team that's really having
- 59:51Speaker 1: a bad season. I kind of like the Rangers here.
- 59:54Speaker 1: The money. The market's completely disagreeing with me on that one.
- 59:57Speaker 1: Philadelphia down for minus one fifty five minus one forty
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: one Osbig is telling you they are the better team.
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: Seventy percent of the ticket, sixty eight percent of the
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: cash on the Rangers, though. So the Rangers look like
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: a public underdog there, and that's bad. You never want
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: to play on an underdog with a market read like that.
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: I don't really want to play it on any team
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: with a market read like that, but an underdog usually
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: that's bad because it means you're gonna be able to
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: take the better team and fade the public simultaneously. But
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: based on the situation, yeah, I actually do slightly into
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: the Rangers based on the situation though. So it's one
- 1:00:33Speaker 1: of those games where the market doesn't match up with
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: what I think, and that's just a complete stay away
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: Calgary at Washington. This is a better situation where I
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: think Calgary is gonna be in a bad spot here, man,
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: And I wish I added that to my card. You
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: remember that was my second favorite hockey plan. Saturday, we
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: got to push with my favorite play, but the one
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: that I added to my card, but the second best
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: play Calgary. They actually won the game against Caroline. Man,
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: I should have added it. I called, you know, I
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: called it on the show. I didn't necessarily say they
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: were gonna win the game, but I said Calgary was
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: the way to play that game on like the puck line.
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: They won the game outright. They ended a losing streak
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: and they're starting a road trip. So those are positives.
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: Like when you end a losing streak, it kills your
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: losing momentum, and then sometimes you will start the road
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: trip with momentum, you know what I mean. So that's
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: a positive for Calgary, but it could certainly be a
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: letdown spot after a ridiculous win like that over one
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: of the best teams in hockey over Carolina. So that's
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: the concern that Calgary could be in a pretty major
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: letdown spot because of that. And I think they're gonna
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: they're gonna run into a motivated Washington team here because
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: they've lost three games in a row. They're coming back
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: home from a one game trip to Boston. I think
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: you will see Washington be motivated here. So yeah, I
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: do think Washington should win the game, and I would
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: lean to Washington as well in this game. I just
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: think it is a letdown spot for Calgary here. Primarily
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: I don't want to put it on my card, but
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: sixty one percent to take a sixty five percent of
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: the casual Washington their minus one nineties, So this would
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: be a puck line situation as well, like make your
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: own minus one puck line or something like that with
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: Washington in that game. Utah at Chicago. Utah just won
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: in a shootout at Columbus. Not the greatest performance from
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: Utah there, Uh possible. They start getting a little bit
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: tired here. They're on the Uh they're in the middle
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: of a road trip. They do have a big game
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: on deck against Minnesota. But the thing that, you know,
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: one thing really might keep the focus here is that
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: right before the road trip they lost to the Chicago
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: team at home fod to nothing. So that's one thing
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: that might keep Utah focus here. They're gonna remember that
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: it's a quick road revenge angle here for them, so
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: they might still show up for that reason. But it
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: is a fourth straight road game. But the good thing
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: for Utah is they've had They've had a break between
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: every game, so time off between every game and a
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: travel lag from Columbus to Chicago is not a lot.
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: That's not much at all. Chicago is also coming off
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: a really really big performance. That was the game that
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: I did give out yesterday. They covered for us on
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: the puck line. So Chicago's actually in the worst You
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: could argue they're in the worst travel spot in a
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: way because they return over from a road trip on Friday,
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: then they went right back out on the road and
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: they played a huge game against Dallas yesterday night. Didn't
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: make the trip because he was sick. I don't know
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: if he's playing. It looks like he's day to day,
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: so he might play tonight, so they will potentially have
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: their better goaliean net, but he might not be one
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: hundred percent if he was sick. I don't know. And
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: you're looking at Chicago on a back to back. They
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: had a huge performance last night against Dallas. They already
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: just beat this Utah team on the road. So I
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: like Utah in this game, and this is actually probably
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: the best lean in hockey here. Yeah, a lot of
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: things line up for Utah in this one. Am I
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: gonna add another play here? I mean, Chicago's on the
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: back to back. I'm thinking about it in a third
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: game in four days with travel between all of them
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: having to travel from Dallas, which is actually worse than
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: having to travel from Columbus with a day off. By
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: the way, for Utah. Utah's minus two hundred though seventy
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: ticket seventy six percent of the cash on them. I
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: don't think I can do it, man, I just don't
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: think I can come in and play, you know, a
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: road favorite at a price like that. You know, maybe
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: there's some other way of looking at this game. I mean,
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: I guess you could maybe do the split puck line thing.
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: I really don't like doing that with road teams, though.
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: You know, one one potential way of looking at this
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: is Utah over their team total might be a way
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: of looking at it. I know the total is kind
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: of low in the game at six, but you know,
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: the last time I've laded Chicago, they got shut out, man,
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: and they might be running into a goaltender who's were
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: you know, coming off an illness, you know what I mean.
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: So Utah might be able to put up some goals
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: in this one, and you're looking at a Chicago team,
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: it's gonna have tired legs on deep. So yeah, that's
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: probably what I would do. Actually, Utah team total over
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: is probably what I would do. You know, I'm almost
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: considering making it adding a team total to my card
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: for the first time ever. Let me see where where's
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: the team total at here? Let me see it would
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: be over three and a half at about minus one eighteen.
- 1:05:21Speaker 1: If you want that, you know, I don't hate it.
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: You need them to score four goals, but they're definitely
- 1:05:29Speaker 1: capable of doing that, especially in a spot like this.
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: I think that's what I would do. I'm gonna sit
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: back and watch and see what happens there, but I
- 1:05:38Speaker 1: think that's what I would do. I would go Utah
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: over their team total three and a half. So there
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: you go. I'm not I'm trying to, you know, look
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: at games in different ways and not just look at
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: sides every time. So that might be the better way
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: of looking at that one. Because you know, the road
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: favorite price is just very heavy. And then we have
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: Auto on Vancouver. This is not a good game. Autawa
- 1:05:59Speaker 1: did just put up a lot of goals in a
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: win over Seattle, who's not very good. They won seven
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: to four. Might not have as good a performance in
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: this one man possible they overlook Vancouver. It was just really,
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: really bad. Ottawa has a big game coming up against
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: Montreal when they come back home, so that might be
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: a bigger deal. Vancouver just lost to Winnipeg. They're returning home,
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: but they were only away Friday Saturday. But it does
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: mean they're playing a third game in four days, all
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: in different cities, which isn't great return home spot. You know,
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: it's a lot worse when you were on the road
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: for a long period of time, which they weren't. So
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: you know, I think I like Vancouver in this one.
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: I would probably prefer Vancouver, but doesn't make my card
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: or anything. Outawa is a pretty public side. They're up
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: for minus twolve five the minus two fifteen, pretty heavy
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: road favorite price there. I mean, Vancouver is the worst
- 1:06:49Speaker 1: team in the NHL, but seventy seven percent of tickets
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash on Ottawa. Yeah, I mean,
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: if I was gonna play the game, puck line on
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: Vancouver might be the way to go. They're a huge
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: public underdog in that one. In the spot is okay
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: for them, but I think, you know again, I like
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: Utah the best out of all those plays there. All right,
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: then we got some NBA short NBA card Today there
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: is a Peacock slash NBC doubleheader. One of the two
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: games is really good. Philadelphia at Cleveland is the first
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: game up, which is not one of the Peacock games.
- 1:07:24Speaker 1: This game is not good just because Philadelphia literally has nobody.
- 1:07:29Speaker 1: Philadelphia just lost at Atlanta, so they might be in
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: bounceback mode at least after that. Cleveland just got wrecked
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: by the Celtics yesterday, so I am happy about that.
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: Celtics looked really good, Tatum. I had a good performance
- 1:07:42Speaker 1: in the game. Celtics season swept Cleveland, by the way,
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: and you know, they looked pretty good even though they
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: were facing the new Cleveland team with Hired in there.
- 1:07:53Speaker 1: But it was Mitchell's first game back. Mitchell put up
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: some points. I mean, Mitchell wasn't bad in the game
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: at all. He scored thirty points. So you know, it
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: didn't look like it was a situation where they were
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: really in that you know, reverse injured player spot that
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: heavily there. But Cleveland did play yesterday but I don't
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: think they're gonna be that tired because they did have
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: a lot of days off before yesterday. Still, that was
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: a big game, like it's a game you get up
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: emotionally for against the Celtics. Now they might talk they
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: might not take Philadelphia seriously because Philadelphia. We already know
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: Paul George is still suspended and bead is still out
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: with a knee injury. But it's now even worse for
- 1:08:28Speaker 1: Philadelphia because Maxie got hurt in their last game, so
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: he's not playing in this game either. He has like
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: a hand injury or finger injury something, so Maxie is
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: out too. Speaking of finger injuries. By the way, Vucevic
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: is out for like a couple of weeks with the
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: Celtics after they just traded for him and he was
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: playing pretty well, so I'm not happy about that either,
- 1:08:49Speaker 1: but he should be back for the playoffs. But still
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: playoffs anyway. This is a it's a weird game, man,
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: But that is the reason why the Calves are a
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: twelve and a half point favorite here off from ten
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: and a half. I know they're obviously the better team anyway,
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: but the Sixers, again, they're down their three best players.
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: In this game. So no Maxie, no George, no embiid here,
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards taking the points of the Sixers.
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: So I think the line might be just a little
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: bit too high, especially given the Cleveland is on the
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: back to back to eighty one percent tickets seventy four
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So Calves are the public side
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: with less of the money on them, And the Sixers
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: do fall into the injured player theory spot at the
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: very least because now their best player. You know that
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: they currently have Maxie. Now he's not playing, so the
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: team's gonna know first game without him, they got to
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: step up their effort, you know what I mean. So
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: that would be my lean in that game. I don't
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: want anything to do with it though. Then we got
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: Memphis at Brooklyn. Now, when I first thought about this game,
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: I was like, well, Brooklyn's in a terrible spot here.
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: Brooklyn just had a ridiculous comeback win against Detroit. Unbelievable
- 1:09:59Speaker 1: ups that win after they were losing that whole game
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: pretty much, they somehow won the game. Now they're coming
- 1:10:05Speaker 1: back home from a three game road trip. They weren't
- 1:10:09Speaker 1: on the road for a week, and it was a
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: bit of a quick road trip that only took them
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: to Miami and Detroit. Still a road trip returned nonetheless, though,
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: you know, so that could be an added distraction. There
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: might not pay attention to a Memphis team. It's not
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: that good. Plus Brooklyn, you could see they're really failing
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: to put an effort in a lot of games recently.
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: And yes, they finally did put an effort in a game,
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: but that was because it was Detroit. Oh and by
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: the way, guess who they played tomorrow? They played Detroit again,
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: so they were in a Detroit sandwich here. Horrible, horrible
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: spot for Brooklyn. So why do I not want Memphis? Well, Memphis,
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: they just put in a pretty big effort as well, man,
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: I know it was at home. They came close to
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: beating the Clippers. That was a play I gave you
- 1:10:51Speaker 1: guys a winner on Memphis the other night that covered
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: against the Clippers. They should have won the game. They
- 1:10:56Speaker 1: were winning a lot of that game. So that's my issue.
- 1:10:59Speaker 1: You remember, it was a similar situation when I gave
- 1:11:01Speaker 1: out the winner on the Clippers against the Spurs, and
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: they should have won the game outright, and they blew
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: the game. But they still covered. Clippers were in a
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: terrible set, and this was the game where I said, okay,
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: now you fade the Clippers coming off of that. This
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: was that game Memphis indeed covered and probably should have
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: won the game. But now Memphis is in a spot
- 1:11:20Speaker 1: like that because they had the game where they had
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: the big lead and then they blew it. Now I
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: know it's a little bit better for them, I guess,
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: because you know, well, I don't even think it is,
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: because they're going on the road to faces Brooklyn team
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: that they probably won't really care about, and they do
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: have Philadelphia on deck, which is a bigger deal tomorrow.
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: So I can't get there with this one. Man. I'm
- 1:11:39Speaker 1: still gonna lean to Memphis here. I think the spot
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: is worse for Brooklyn. The money, interestingly is coming in
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: on Brooklyn though. On Memphis, by the way, they look
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: like they're a team that's putting in more effort right
- 1:11:49Speaker 1: now than the Nets are, though, so Grizzlies seventy three
- 1:11:52Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. Nets have fifty percent of the cash, though,
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: and the Grizzlies are minus one and a half. I
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: lean Grizzlies in the game, though, but the market is
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: completely disagreeing with me on that first Peacock and NBC
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: Sports game is the best game of the night. Denver
- 1:12:08Speaker 1: at Oklahoma City, which is also a quick rematch. Denver
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: just went into Oklahoma City on February twenty seventh and
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: took them to overtime. So and okay, see one. So
- 1:12:19Speaker 1: I could see two different things happening here. I could
- 1:12:22Speaker 1: see this being a revenge game for Denver where they
- 1:12:25Speaker 1: come in and they play really well here and make
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: some adjustments. But I could also see Oklahoma City, you know,
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: taking them seriously because Denver went into their place, it
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: took them to overtime, and they're playing in the same
- 1:12:36Speaker 1: place tonight at Oklahoma City again. But the reason why
- 1:12:41Speaker 1: I leaned Denver here is because Denver is coming off
- 1:12:44Speaker 1: a horrific loss to the Knicks. They lost by almost
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: forty points to two to one oh three at home. Denver,
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: by the way, is actually a pretty good road team.
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: They're actually not very good at home, believe it or not.
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: Denver very impressive twenty two and twelve away from home.
- 1:12:58Speaker 1: And you think of Denver as like this good home
- 1:13:00Speaker 1: team because they had the elevation edge or whatever, but
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: they're actually really good on the road. They were good
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: the last time they played in Oklahoma City in the
- 1:13:07Speaker 1: thunder Dome. They should call it the thunder Dome. Oklahoma
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: City is really good at home though twenty six and six.
- 1:13:16Speaker 1: But I think Denver, coming off of the loss that bad,
- 1:13:18Speaker 1: with a couple of days off to recuperate from that,
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: I think they're in a pretty good spot to bounce
- 1:13:24Speaker 1: back from that. Oklahoma City is coming off a decent
- 1:13:27Speaker 1: win over Golden State after beating the Knicks. The only
- 1:13:30Speaker 1: thing I will say is that Golden State actually kind
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: of took them right to the wire though, so Oklahoma
- 1:13:35Speaker 1: City did get a little bit of a scare. It
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: was a return home spot for them too. So I
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: think Oklahoma City, after you know, they beat the Knicks
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: on the road, they were returning home. I think maybe
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: they were in a little bit of a bad spot
- 1:13:46Speaker 1: there returning home and they were facing that injured Golden
- 1:13:49Speaker 1: State team. They didn't do particularly well. They still did
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: get the win, so I could see Oklahoma City being
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: a kind of bounce back mode here as well. They
- 1:13:57Speaker 1: do a Boston and Minnesota on deck. I don't think
- 1:13:59Speaker 1: they're really going to overlooked Denver even though they did
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: loose to them the last time. Oklahoma City was about
- 1:14:05Speaker 1: a six and a half pint favorite the last time
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: they hosted the Nuggets, and that's what they are again
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: here because the line dropped from seven and a half
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: to six and a half. So we did go through
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: that key number seven uh key ish in basketball because
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: teams stop intentionally fouling. The Nuggets are taking the money
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty percent of the cash
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: on the Nuggets. I'll agree, you know, I think what
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: puts it over the top is how bad the Nuggets
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: looked in their last game. I think that is what
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: kind of sways me towards leaning towards taking the points
- 1:14:34Speaker 1: of the Nuggets there. But I don't want anything to
- 1:14:36Speaker 1: do with that game. And under might be worth of
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: look the thunder under under in the game might be
- 1:14:42Speaker 1: worth the look there because people might be misled by oh,
- 1:14:45Speaker 1: you know, both teams scored in the one twenties last time,
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: but remember that game did go into overtime. You're looking
- 1:14:51Speaker 1: at a fairly high total of two thirty two here,
- 1:14:53Speaker 1: and in a big game like this where you might
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: see defenses show up in this one, even though I
- 1:14:59Speaker 1: know the Nuggets defense hasn't been good recently, but you know,
- 1:15:02Speaker 1: you might see it happen in this one. And the
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: Nuggets I believe they do have and I mean their
- 1:15:08Speaker 1: defense looked really bad in the last game too, I
- 1:15:10Speaker 1: get it. But I think Aaron Gordon is back now, right,
- 1:15:13Speaker 1: Yeah he is, so they're ramping him up. He only
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: played twenty one minutes in that game, and he didn't
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: play that well, but that might have been his first
- 1:15:20Speaker 1: game back. It was, so his first game back, he
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: wasn't good, but the Nuggets were way better defensively with
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon in the lineup, so you might see a
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: better defensive performance from them as time. And one reason
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: I like the Nuggets, I guess is because Gordon's second
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: game back, he'll probably give you a much better effort
- 1:15:37Speaker 1: than this very lack luster one for seven shooting performance.
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: But also he seems to make their depfense way better too.
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: So I like the Nuggets, But I you know, I
- 1:15:48Speaker 1: like the under in this game as well. Okay, then
- 1:15:52Speaker 1: we have Golden State at Utah. This was the one
- 1:15:55Speaker 1: that I was closest to adding to my card because
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: of what I just said. Golden State just pretty much
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: Gogoloama City to the wire on the road is double
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: digit underdogs. That was a huge performance from Golden State,
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: and they actually beat Houston on the road the game
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: before that. So Golden State's coming up of two huge
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: effort games playing now having to go into elevation and
- 1:16:14Speaker 1: playing Utah. I think it's a bad spot for Golden State.
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: They could definitely overlook a Utah team that's really injured.
- 1:16:21Speaker 1: But the problem with Utah is, you know, it looks
- 1:16:23Speaker 1: like they're not putting in a ton of effort right now.
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: They did just get blown out by Milwaukee, so maybe
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: you will see a better effort out of Utah here. Actually,
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: they did be washing in the game before that, and
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: they played Philadelphia and Denver close to the two games prior,
- 1:16:36Speaker 1: so I guess maybe you could make the argument Utah
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: is still giving you effort here. But the problem I
- 1:16:41Speaker 1: have with Utah is they're turning over from a road trip.
- 1:16:44Speaker 1: They were only gone Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday. But I still
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: can't quite get there with a team returning over from
- 1:16:50Speaker 1: a road trip. Man, I think they tend to be
- 1:16:52Speaker 1: a little bit distracted. They might still get up for
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: a game against the Warriors. They do have the Knicks
- 1:16:58Speaker 1: on decor better than the Warriors. But you know, overall, yes,
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Jazz though, but
- 1:17:06Speaker 1: I don't think I can quite put it on my card.
- 1:17:08Speaker 1: I think it is the strongest NBA lean of the day,
- 1:17:11Speaker 1: though Warriors have already dropped from eight to six though,
- 1:17:13Speaker 1: so it did go through that key number seven sixty
- 1:17:16Speaker 1: three percent. I'd say it's sixty two percent of the
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: cash on the Warriors. I think I would still lean
- 1:17:20Speaker 1: towards doing it taking the points of the Jazz at
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: plus six, but I'm not gonna put it on my card.
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: But it looks like the market is agreeing with that side.
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: But you know, again, the return home spot worries me
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: because again it could be a little bit of a distraction,
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: although at least it was a shorter road trip return.
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: The Knicks are at the Clippers to finish this off here.
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: The Knicks played last night, so they're on a back
- 1:17:44Speaker 1: to back. But at least the good thing is the
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: Knicks are staying in La so they're not having to
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: travel here. But they are playing a third game in
- 1:17:52Speaker 1: four days, a fourth game in six days, and a
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: very dreaded five in seven days, all in different arenas,
- 1:18:00Speaker 1: so that's not great. And a sixth and nine and
- 1:18:04Speaker 1: a seven and eleven as well, by the way, with
- 1:18:07Speaker 1: travel between every single one of those games, so that's
- 1:18:10Speaker 1: not great for the Knicks, although they did look really
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: bad last night. I told you I liked the Lakers
- 1:18:14Speaker 1: in that game last night. Knicks had just embarrassed Enver
- 1:18:17Speaker 1: in elevation the game prior. Sure enough, the Lakers got
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: the win easily, by the way, So the Knicks, you
- 1:18:25Speaker 1: could argue they're in the bounce back spot here, but
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I mean, it's a back to back.
- 1:18:28Speaker 1: It's one of those rare situations. Playing five games in
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: seven days pretty bad. Just no time off for the
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: Knicks here. Clippers just barely got by Memphis. Now they
- 1:18:39Speaker 1: are returning home from a road trip, but it was
- 1:18:41Speaker 1: only a Friday Saturday road trip, fairly quick road trip,
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: but they did it across time zones to go all
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: the way to Memphis. They didn't play well, though they
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: played well in the game against San Antonio. Blew the
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: game though, which is then why we faded them on
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: the show here with Memphis in the next game, Memphis
- 1:18:56Speaker 1: got the job done at least covering, so now the
- 1:19:01Speaker 1: Clippers are kind of in a bounce back spot. I
- 1:19:03Speaker 1: guess I would say I still don't love the return
- 1:19:05Speaker 1: home with you know, the travel across time zones. I
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: would still lean to the Clippers here though. The Knicks
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: are just in a very very difficult spot as far
- 1:19:13Speaker 1: as the lack of rest. Knicks down from three and
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: a half to two and a half here, sixty two
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, sixty one percent of the
- 1:19:19Speaker 1: cash on the Clippers, so the money is coming in
- 1:19:22Speaker 1: on the Clippers. I think the Clippers still get kind
- 1:19:24Speaker 1: of overlooked because their overall record is bad, but as
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: a team, they're not quite as bad as that. Don't
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: know what the injury situation is with you know, Garland
- 1:19:33Speaker 1: and such. I think Garland is back for them. I
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: think he has played a couple of games, so likely.
- 1:19:39Speaker 1: I think he is playing after the Clippers and then
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: Mitchell Robinson game time decision for the Knicks, so I
- 1:19:47Speaker 1: guess something to consider there. He missed the game last
- 1:19:50Speaker 1: night against LA against the other LA. As far as
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: the Clippers, yeah, it looks like Garland is back. He
- 1:19:57Speaker 1: is playing he's I played two games since they acquired,
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: but he played in the Memphis game and missed the
- 1:20:04Speaker 1: San Antonio game in between. You know, and there it
- 1:20:08Speaker 1: looks like he took a lot of shots in that
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: game against Memphis, although he wasn't that effective. But there
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: we go. Or that efficient, I guess it might be
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: the better way to say that, because he didn't shoot
- 1:20:20Speaker 1: a good percentage. Let's say that although for a guard,
- 1:20:24Speaker 1: I guess he was all right. All right, that's gonna
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: do it. Man. Once again, the two players are both
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: in college. Robert Morris minus the points, Santa Clara plus
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: the points. That's gonna do it. Let's let's get some
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: wins today, man, Learn a tone on Twitter, learn it
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: tone on Instagram. Check it all out there, like subscribe,
- 1:20:45Speaker 1: you know, give me replies, give me good comments, give
- 1:20:48Speaker 1: me positive feedback on the or negative. Whatever. I'll you know,
- 1:20:51Speaker 1: I'll get mad, but whatever on the channel here. You know,
- 1:20:55Speaker 1: I'm always a dick man, but I appreciate you guys
- 1:20:57Speaker 1: hanging out. I yell at everybody when I dis I
- 1:21:00Speaker 1: don't know's it's my way. I'm from Boston, I'm Italian.
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: What do you want? Kid? That's the way that it is.
- 1:21:06Speaker 1: I you know, uh, thanks, thanks for continuing to come back.
- 1:21:10Speaker 1: Jeff and everybody else has been in the chat this morning.
- 1:21:13Speaker 1: Jeff Kyle, you guys listen on audio as well. Apple Spotify.
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: Give me good reviews over there. Covered in you because
- 1:21:21Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out,
- 1:21:23Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash learn to total. Though I'm not
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: doing well at fulfilling people's requests, I gotta put some
- 1:21:29Speaker 1: sort of limitation on it, man. I gotta do something
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: about that so that you know, check that out as
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: well if you want to throw me some support over
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: there that way. And Uh, loser cast, Yeah, I always
- 1:21:44Speaker 1: why don't I always forget loser casts? Tomorrow night, new
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: episode loser Cast. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, guys. Peace. Uh,
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: And I'll be back later today, I think at some
- 1:21:54Speaker 1: point maybe in the afternoon while it's just the swack
- 1:21:57Speaker 1: game going on, we'll talk about the rest of them
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: off it's tournaments because the big ones begin tomorrow and
- 1:22:03Speaker 1: we have the other couple to talk about as well.
- 1:22:05Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. Peace,