Latest / Closing Market Report / May 04 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260504 01:23 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel 06:35 Pesticide Resistant Alfalfa Weevils 09:53 Search Google for cropCentral 11:20 Commodity Markets with Ed Usset 17:55 Ag Weather with Mark Russo Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fourth day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel. We'll hear from Nick Seiter, Extension Entomologist. We'll talk with Ed Usset, Agricultural Economist from the University of Minnesota, and check out the weather forecast too with Mark Russo on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day, $4.85 and 3/4, a settlement up 5 and 1/2 cents. December, $5.04 and 1/2, 5 and 3/4 higher. July beans at $12.22 and 3/4, 19 and 1/2 cents higher. November at $11.96 and 3/4, up 14 for the day. Soft red winter wheat in the July harvest month, up 3 and 1/4 at $6.41. The hard red July unchanged at $6.94 and 1/2. Live cattle futures were down $1.25. Feeders off $5.57 and 1/2, and lean hogs a buck 52 and 1/2 lower. Crude oil in the Brent—that's the world price—at $114.30 a barrel, up around six bucks. And the West Texas at 106, up $4 for the afternoon. 01:23 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel Todd Gleason: Curt Kimmel is here now. He is with agmarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Hi, Curt. Thanks for being with us. Let's get right into it. What got behind the beans today that pushed them higher? Curt Kimmel: Giddy up, hear the fire horse, 60-year cycle, so it continues to follow suit. Basically, world events over the weekend put the risk premium back in on crude oil futures, trading up over $4 a barrel here as we speak Monday afternoon. Full throttle down, pedal to the metal, commodity funds bought over 14,000 contracts of corn, almost 17,000 contracts of beans, 4,600 wheat, 3,400 meal, and 7,100 bean oil just going into midday. We've defied the law of gravity here and put some risk premium back into the marketplace. There was some talk that hedge funds are concerned as we move into this fall with South America, regarding their fertilizer capability and fuel capability on that crop. That's why beans moved higher, and bean oil continues to move higher as well. That news, coupled with the Chinese-U.S. meeting the middle of the month, May 14th and 15th, brings the idea that they're buying a little ahead of that meeting. We'll see if there's some confirmation taking place there. The monthly crush, over 227 million bushels of beans, was a little less than expected, but it was above last year's 189 and 214 in February. The crush and the crushing margins remain strong. Ethanol demand remains strong. We're hitting on all cylinders. Even though export sales aren't huge, we are shipping out what we sold. This morning's export inspections report showed that we shipped out over 2 million metric tons of corn. Bean shipments were a little light at 450,000 tons, and the wheat shipments were in the middle there, about 434,000 tons. We continue to see some strong enthusiasm. For the most part, a producer feels like they have their hands in their pocket as they focus on trying to get the crop in the ground, which seems to be going fairly well for most parts of the U.S. Todd Gleason: Interesting enough, because most would have said, "Hey, next time it shows me $5 December corn, $12 November beans, maybe I ought to make a sale," but they're busy. They may be thinking about it, but they're probably thinking the market still has room to run higher. What are you telling them? Curt Kimmel: You have to scale into it. We're still sticking with the original plan: raise your price floor. Try to improve the price we saw back in February, the spring price guarantee, and continue to build on that. The market is fitting the seasonal trend up into the first part of May. However, as we move into May and the crop gets in the ground, if we see a change in attitude on some of this world news, the risk comes back to the downside. It's a win-win situation by trying to raise the floor here. Two months ago, I heard guys say, "Forget $5, let me know when it hits $12.00 or $12.50, I want to sell some beans." But now they are busy and want to take a look at it later. Psychologically, they sold a little bit too much too soon last fall, and it's hard to pull the trigger for most guys. You have to stick to the plan, reward the market, and raise your price floors. As volatility picks up, it's nice to see it move up, but there's going to be a day we come in and it will be down. It's a dynamic marketplace, with much better prices than what most traders or analysts were looking at two months ago. Todd Gleason: Very quickly, a short answer. Do you think this afternoon's crop progress will show a continued push at a record pace to get crops in the ground? Have they slowed down? Curt Kimmel: They might slow down a little bit in the east, but the east was well ahead. We did see some headway over the weekend in eastern Iowa. Of course, there's big-time progress in the western part. I think we're still a little bit above the average pace. It's amazing how much ground you guys can cover. Todd Gleason: Thanks much. I appreciate it, Curt. Curt Kimmel: You bet. Take care. Todd Gleason: Curt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. 06:35 Pesticide Resistant Alfalfa Weevils Todd Gleason: We're now joined by Nick Seiter. He is a field crops entomologist here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. Along with his colleagues, he has been surveying farmers across the Midwest regarding resistance to insecticides developing in alfalfa weevil populations. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to know, Nick, if the alfalfa weevil is just that troublesome of a pest, and maybe some of the recent history about its development of insecticide resistance. Can you give us an update? Nick Seiter: We've had a number of reports of field failures with pyrethroids for alfalfa weevil in recent years. Unlike some of our larger acreage crops, we don't have a ton of different insecticide options in alfalfa. If we lose efficacy with the pyrethroid materials, like lambda-cyhalothrin that we use the most frequently, that could actually be a pretty big problem. Todd Gleason: Are there any current research efforts going on with this pest? Nick Seiter: We've been collecting weevil populations and assessing them for resistance this season throughout the Midwest. It's an effort headed up by my colleague, Pincy Lai, at the University of Nebraska. In addition, my colleague Anthony Hanson at the University of Minnesota is coordinating a short survey of Midwestern alfalfa farmers. The idea here is to put some hard numbers to the reports we've been hearing. How often are farmers spraying for weevils and other insects? How often are they struggling to get good control with those applications? What other methods are they relying on to manage insects in their alfalfa forage? Those are the kinds of answers that we're looking for with this effort. Todd Gleason: Is there still time for farmers to participate in the survey, and how might they do that? Nick Seiter: Absolutely. They can reach out directly to me if they have weevil populations they would like to see tested, or if they want to participate in the survey. My email is nseiter@illinois.edu. For the survey, they can also access that directly at z.umn.edu/alfalfapestsurvey. If you just Google "alfalfa pest survey," two or three articles are going to pop up that have that link, so you don't necessarily have to memorize it. The survey is going to close around the end of May, so there's no time like the present to take it. If you have a few minutes, jump on there. It's 22 questions, none of which take very long to answer. You should be able to get through it pretty quickly and hopefully give us some valuable information about what's going on on your farms. Todd Gleason: Nick Seiter is an Extension field crops entomologist at the University of Illinois. 09:53 Search Google for cropCentral Todd Gleason: Speaking of Nick Seiter, if you happen to be subscribed to the Crop Central newsletter from the University of Illinois Department of Crop Sciences, this morning you received an email from him. Actually, from the Crop Central website, where he's written an article. There is a link there to the applied research that they've been doing over the last year. It's the annual summary. It is really good and worth downloading the PDF file. That link is in the short article that Nick has written. That article also is on our website at willag.org. It is at the top of the page, at least it was earlier today. It may not be by the time you take a look at it. Check it out and download the PDF file so you can catch up on all the kinds of work that the crop scientists have done over the last year. Applied research is about things that are happening in your field, and you can access that right now at willag.org, or by subscribing to the Crop Central newsletter on the farmdoc website. Look under sections, and you'll find field crops, and there you'll find the Crop Central subscription so you can be emailed every time the crop scientists have something of note for you, including Nick Seiter's piece, which is already on the website today. 11:20 Commodity Markets with Ed Usset Todd Gleason: Now let's turn our attention to another extension service out of Minnesota. We're joined by Ed Usset, agricultural economist there. Hi, Ed, thanks for being with us. I hope you're doing well. I'd like to start with how things are doing across the state as it relates to crop progress in Minnesota. Ed Usset: We're doing well. The Minnesota crop is getting in the ground in a timely fashion. We could use a little more heat to get things going, but we have had some timely rains in the last ten days, particularly in the southwest, and it was needed. Todd Gleason: We've had a little rally in the corn market recently. What do you think of those markets? Ed Usset: I think now's the time, Todd. Now's the time. The last three or four times we met, I told you that my eye was on new crop sales, the December contract at $5 or better. We came close, but not quite there. Well, guess what? We're there. I believe we're trading $5.02 to $5.03 a bushel on December 2026 corn. Soybeans have been at a good level, and they're very strong today; we're at $12 on new crop soybeans. Even the wheat market is doing well. It's reminding me, Todd, of an article I wrote almost ten years ago for Corn and Soybean Digest. The wheat market was on a big rally, and I wrote an article that said wheat can lead us out of the doldrums. It hit the press just as the wheat market was falling apart. I'm not predicting that—I don't want that to happen. That's just one of the risks we take when we make brave calls. I'm interested in new crop sales across the board. I am disappointed by basis levels; I wish they were a little bit better. They're not awful on new crop. Old crop is not very perky. That always makes me raise a wary eye on what's wrong. Strong markets should be led by basis and not lagging. But it is time to get something done. Todd Gleason: What are basis levels like in the state of Minnesota? Ed Usset: I am looking at corn in southwestern Minnesota. Not ethanol plants, just elevators and shuttle loading facilities—65 under the July. I would expect a year or two ago, we'd have been 30 cents better than that. For soybeans, I believe we're at 70 to 75 under the July. Again, I would like to think we could be 30 cents better, but we're not. Todd Gleason: Prices here are not that low. That would have been typical 15 years ago, but with the buildup of ethanol plants and rail lines going to the west, especially in that southwestern part of Minnesota, they are probably getting picked up by the rail lines going out to export markets too. I just wonder why the basis difference is taking place. Do they store and keep more in that area than here? Ed Usset: They must. As a former buyer, I can say they don't need it that bad, or if they do need it, it's coming easily, maybe driven by the higher board prices moving some grain. Todd Gleason: It could be that simple. So, a little rain causes farmers to take some time, look at the marketplace, and make a phone call. Which means they're doing exactly what you said they ought to do. Ed Usset: Yeah. Get something done right now. I'm also reminded that there are different types of orders you can place in the market—a market order, a limit order, and so on. This long wait for higher prices reminds me of a pit story. Back in the pit, brokers had what the wags would call CIC orders. That's a "Cancel If Close" order. You're waiting for $5 December corn for months, and when you finally get close to it, you call your broker and say, "Oh no, I don't want to sell now. This thing's strong. It's going to keep going. Cancel if close." Keep it in there. Todd Gleason: The Strait of Hormuz—does it matter very much at this point regarding the price of grains going forward? It appears we'll be at a standstill for some time. I suppose the difference could be whether we can actually move traffic through the strait, or if the United States and Iran go back to military action. Ed Usset: That one is going to hang over this market for a while. I'm not smart enough to understand the ongoing effects, except to say that it's obviously having an impact on energy prices and fertilizer prices and availability. These are going to be ongoing issues. But apparently, we're not overly worried about it because here in the U.S., we're getting things done. Todd Gleason: Indeed. Thanks much. I appreciate it. Ed Usset: Thank you. Todd Gleason: Ed Usset is an agricultural economist with the University of Minnesota. 17:55 Ag Weather with Mark Russo Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at what's been happening in the global growing regions. We're now joined by Mark Russo. He's with Everstream Analytics. Mark, we have a lot of ground to cover in the Northern Hemisphere as it's spring in this part of the world. Let's begin in the Southern Plains of the United States, the hard red winter wheat growing regions, and even a little bit of the Corn Belt in Kansas and Nebraska. Can you tell me about conditions on the ground? Mark Russo: Over the weekend, similar to here in the Corn Belt, temperatures were really cold, especially on Saturday. We don't think the wheat crop was advanced enough for there to be any significant winter kill from the cold, but with some areas dropping into the 20s, you can't rule out a field or two experiencing issues. Going forward, there's no threatening cold expected, with temperatures seasonal for the next five days, then climbing to warmer-than-normal levels. As for the precipitation outlook across the Plains winter wheat belt, and for corn planting in the Southwest, Midwest, or Eastern Kansas, there is still no sign of any widespread meaningful rainfall to turn around or significantly improve the situation. There will be some rain activity—it's not going to be a bone-dry pattern—but the activity that does develop will likely keep conditions stable versus further deteriorating or improving significantly. Todd Gleason: Are there issues we need to deal with in North and South Dakota, into the western parts of those states, maybe Montana, Wyoming, or the Canadian Prairies? Mark Russo: Things are improving with their planting conditions over the next couple of weeks. Compared to lately, things have been unseasonably cold and quite wet. Two weeks ago, we saw big snow across the Canadian Prairies and parts of the Northern Plains. That has since melted, but temperatures remained cold. Looking ahead, a generally drier and warmer pattern will continue to evolve over the next seven days and into next week. This combination of warmer temps and drier conditions will allow a gradual improvement in fieldwork and planting for spring wheat, canola, and other small grains. Todd Gleason: Pick up with the eastern side of the Dakotas, move through Minnesota, Iowa, and on to Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. What do you see? Mark Russo: We see generally drier weather across most of the Corn Belt, both south and north, east and west. Temperatures for this week will be unseasonably cool after tomorrow. That does look to improve next week, which will allow soil temperatures to begin increasing again. Overall, planting weather for the Corn Belt will keep at a steady pace, not running into any pattern that would result in major planting delays or interruptions. Todd Gleason: What are you watching in parts of Europe from west to east? Mark Russo: We're watching a general contraction of dryness across Europe over the next couple of weeks. This has already started across Western Europe in countries like France and England, which have been drier than normal over the past four to six weeks, raising some concern for winter crop development and newly planted summer crops. A pattern change across Europe to more active conditions is increasing rainfall and helping to improve topsoil moisture. We even see this active pattern extending further east, impacting countries like Poland and the Baltic countries, which have also been unseasonably dry. They need improvement in topsoil moisture to boost planting rates. All in all, it's an improving situation for both winter crop development and summer crop planting as we move through the middle of May across Europe. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. I appreciate it, Mark. Mark Russo: You're welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: That's Mark Russo. He is with Everstream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world, online and on-demand at willag.org. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.