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NFL Week 15 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my Broins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch haape? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Slumpy praise, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you, toad stool Sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: This is the NFL show for week fifteen. And I
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: know I talked about how confident I am and this
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: word here, I'm gonna give up three plays here. I
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: feel pretty good about my opinions on these and watch
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: this entire week go to hell. Man. That's that's you know,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: that's what's gonna happen. Some of these later weeks I
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: do tend to do pretty well because I mean, fading
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the public tends to work a little bit better because
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the books have kind of refined their numbers here, so
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: the numbers are more fine tuned, and well they have
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to kind of skew them towards where the public is
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: as well. So I mean that always kind of works.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: But as the season progresses, it works a little bit more.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: That is the hope at least, And obviously you know
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be fading the public pretty much all
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: across the board here, and hopefully I'm going to get
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: these games right because I have an opinion on pretty
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: much all of them. Charles, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: That's again that's why I yeah tell you to not
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: parlay because five and one NCAA basketball day absolutely destruction
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: on the day, although every single underdog failed to win
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: out right thanks West Virginia the other ones I didn't
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: expect to win out right, but whatever. But yeah, I mean,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: that's that's why I never parlay, because five and one
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: is a massive win, and one loss can take an
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: entire parlay out. So and you don't get good enough
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: odds on the parlay. So yeah, mister Pinsey, what's up
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Toledo's scoring by the half? I haven't looked at that
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: game at all. I don't even know what we're talking
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: about college basketball. I assume minus one and a half.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: What did you so way you took minus one and
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: a half on the full game or what are we
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: talking about? I don't know. I'll have to look at
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: it later. We're gonna get right into NFL. I'll talk
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: about today tomorrow because I think the thunder are gonna
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: be a loss, but I think it's not official yet.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: But whatever, NFL, We're gonna get right into it. Man,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a bunch of plays here looking at
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the board. First game up on the board is a
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: play for me, so I'm gonna hold that until the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Best Vets segment next up one PM. I'm glad that
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: we don't have any more europe morning games at least,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: and by the way, we don't have any more buys,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: so just gaze now and straits. I guess. So all
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the teams are playing now Week fifteen onward. I'm on
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: a buy in my main league in fantasy. That's about it.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: The teams that are coming off of buys, by the way,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: are New England, Carolina, San Francisco, and who am I missing?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: There's one other one in here. I can't even remember
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: what it is. Isn't that just awesome? Who else is
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: coming off of a bye? It's yeah, definitely New England, Carolina,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the Niners. There's one other one in here, but I'll
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: figure it out. Oh the Giants, Yeah, yeah, the Giants
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: of course. All right, we forget that the Giants even exist,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: even though I'm technically on a Giants podcast eighteen point
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: lead at the half and then they what do they
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: lose the game? I hate that, but that means that
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the coach on the other side made like some huge
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: halftime adjustments. Pretty much. All right, Raiders Eagles, I'll talk
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: about this game. First, Eagles are twelve and a half
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: point favorite. The line really hasn't moved that much. Eighty
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets on the Eagles. Obviously they're
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: gonna be real public. Public wants nothing to do with
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, and obviously they'll still be on the Eagles train.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Even though they just saw the Eagles lose on Monday night.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: They consider that to be, like, I think, a decent loss,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: even though it was kind of ugly. The Eagles were
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: about to win that game in overtime and threw an
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: interception at the goal line. So yeah, the Eagles. They
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: had a lot of turnovers in that game, man, but
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: so did the Chargers. But yeah, the Eagles are gonna
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: be public regardless. I mean, they're the Super Bowl champs whatever.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles are on a short week coming off
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: a big game, and the Eagles I don't know that
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: they really pay attention to the Raiders here at all
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Man like. The Eagles also don't cover big numbers like
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Look at the Eagles wins this year. They won by
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: four to three seven, and that was only because they
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: blocked a kick and returned it for a touchdown against
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: the Rams six six twelve. So even against Arsusie eighteen,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I can't do math. They're covered at home against the Giants,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: that was the only one where they covered a number
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: like this, three and then seven. So they've only won
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: by double digits one time this entire season. So would
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you really want to put your money on the Eagles
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: winning by that margin on a short week because I wouldn't.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: And then their remaining games are all big er basically
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: against Washington, I mean, at least that's a division game,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: even though Washington is done for the season, and then
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: they do a Buffalo there and then Washington again. But
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I don't see the Eagles really taking the Raiders seriously
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: at all. Raiders are coming into this game playing horribly.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Of course, they did get that weird field goal at
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the end of their last game to cover in the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: closing seconds of that game against Denver, but by the way,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Gino Smith got hurt in that game, or maybe he's
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: just bad. I don't know. Is he bad or injured?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but it sets up we now have
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: an injured player theory spot here for the Raiders. Kenny
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Pickett is going to be making the start here. And
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: as you can see right here, here's this picture sexy
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: stud to Kenny Pickett right here. You know, I always
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: talk about the injured player theory spot when the team
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: loses their starting quarterback, the line has to adjust, although
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: in this case it hasn't even adjusted. So THEO oddsbikers
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: are basically like, we don't even care who the Raiders
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: quarterback is. It doesn't even matter. But Gino Smith has
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: been terrible, so I mean Pickett could potentially be an upgrade.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, but that's what we got here. And you
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: know I talk about with the injured player spot like
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that is actually a reason for the team to come
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: out with some amount of intensity, you know what I mean,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: because they want to play for the young guy, for Pickett,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: although he's been around for a few years now, but
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that also means he does have experience, so he's not
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: coming into this game cold. He started at NFL games before,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: and by the way, he started to I believe at
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: least one or two games for the Philadelphia Eagles. So
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett is getting to play against his former team here, man,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So I think he's gonna get up for it because
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia let him go, So probably a little bit more
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: motivation for Pickett. I think maybe the Raiders will step
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: up and try to play for him. They're playing against
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the returning champs, the Eagles, so should be a big
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: game for the Raiders, even though I know, oh no,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: it's one of these early games where they have to
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: travel to the East Coast. Yeah, but I always talk
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: about how that's like an overstated thing, man, like you
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: get up, you're ready to go. I mean, you get
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: up in the morning, you got your energy, you know,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Like the East Coast team going west is worse in
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: my opinion, and we saw that be bad again with
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia losing on Monday nights. So all that being said,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: you know that means I like the Raiders plus the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: points in this game. It's not on my card. But
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: it's also a really really low total of thirty eight
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: because the Eagles, I mean their offense is just really
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: really struggled. So again, I mean, I think it is
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: going to be a somewhat lower scoring game here. That's
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: better for taking a huge amount of points. So I
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: think Raiders plus the points is correct in that one. Yeah,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: he's scrummed to the umptuous for sure. Aries. What's up
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: man one point pprs that we're talking about? I mean,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I don't I'm not exactly a fantasy expert, although I
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: play Fantasy expert. I do all right in it. You
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: have Stevenson, Walker, Dowbdell Hubbard. Does Hubbard even still play?
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. I have Dowbtle on
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: my team. By the way, Singletary and Burden, what we're
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: talking about, you need to play three of those guys.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming right, I would say, Dowbdle, you probably want
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to get in there. He's playing against the Saints, so
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I mean that's probably the way to go. Hold on,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: let me, I'm gonna I'm gonna look at these numbers
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: real quick that I use. Hold on, I'll give you.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I'll give you what I think really quick here, but
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: don't yell at me if I don't get this right. Obviously,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: let me see, I'm gonna look at I apologize for
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: you guys who want my my NFL plays. I'll get
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: back to that in a second. But yeah, Raiders plus
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the point Eileen in that game. I don't know why
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: this the website that I use like completely change and
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: now I'm looking at like they don't even have like
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: an option to look at I don't know what here
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: it is? All right, all right, we're looking at it now.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Running back. We're gonna look at PPR projections here. I'm
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: looking quick, real quick here. They're all running backs on
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: that list. Right, So we got Dowdell. I don't know why.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even see him on this list. What is
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: happening here? Man? Hold on? Yeah, there's Doubtell. All right,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: so you have Dowbdell. I would I probably wouldn't mess
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: with Singletary versus Tracy. I mean, you don't really know
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: which one of those guys is gonna do anything. I
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: don't think I would play Hubbard either, because Dowdell gets
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the play there, you know what I mean. Let me
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: see here, I'm trying to find everybody on this list
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: here because I can't really search. I would say, you're
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: gonna play Walker. I would play Walker, Henderson and Dowdell.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: That's what I would do out of those three. Yeah, yeah, correct, Yeah,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: that's what I would do. Walker, Henderson, Dowdell props, what's up, man,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: do what the fuck you want to do? You're you're black,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Santa Claus right now, you're some other black guy. Though,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I don't really have my eye on props, man. I'm
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: not really a props guy. I'm more of it. I'm
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: just really a sides guy. That's about. I like women's sides, man.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: That's pretty much it. I don't give them any props.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I don't really have my eye on any props at all,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: though I apologize. All right. Next up, we do have
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Jets Jaguars, and as you'll notice, this line has moved
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: from the look ahead was nine and a half is
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: what it was gonna be on the Jaguars, and now
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: it's fourteen. Well why is that? It's because the Jets
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: have been downgraded four and a half points because of
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: them looking horrible last week, the Jaguars looking awesome last week,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: and the Jets are now switching quarterbacks again. So that
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: combination of those three things has shifted this line to
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns, which you know I'm gonna say, I think
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: that's an overreaction. Uh of the tickets eighty three percent
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: of the couch on the Jags. For now, I think
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: that might those numbers might move by the time this
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: game kicks off. Now, the worry for the Jets is
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that new quarterback is going to be Brady Cook. He's
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: gonna be making his NFL debut. He is the former
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback from the University of Missouri. He is young, he's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: pretty new to the NFL, and this is gonna be
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: his first start. So I don't really love jumping on
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: teams with their quarterback in their first start, because otherwise
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I was definitely eyeing this game as far as potentially
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: playing it, like if this was gonna be Tyrod Taylor
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: in here again or maybe even justin Fields, I might
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: be giving out a play on the Jets here. But
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I don't quite think I can get there with it
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: because it is Brady Cook and you don't know what
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get out of him. Although the advantage will
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: be that there's no game film on the guy, right,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: so there is a little bit of an advantage and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: having a rookie quarterback out there in his debut because
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the opposing defense will have no idea how to game plan, right,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: although it's not like the Jets are going to completely
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: change their scheme over the course of one week, right,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So there is that too, But still the Jags won't
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: really know exactly what the Jets offense is going to
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: look like with Cook at the helm. The Jets are
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: coming off, of course, a horrifically ugly loss to the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins thirty four to ten in New York last week.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Tua actually able to get the job done in a
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: cool weather environment. It wasn't that cold though, It's like
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: in the forties out, so Miami was able to get
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the job done there. It was an embarrassing game. Jets
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: had three turnovers in the game too. They were minus
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: three and turnovers, which made the final score even worse,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: even though Miami did dominate them statistically as well, but
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the score looked even worse because of the turnovers. I
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: think the Jets will bounce back, and the one good
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: thing about having a quarterback making his debut is that
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: means the team's gonna put it in an effort, cause like,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: the team's not gonna have a rookie quarterback making his
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: debut and just completely slack off. You know what I mean,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Like they're gonna want to play for this guy, try
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: to get something done here. So I think that is
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a motivational angle for the Jets. For the Jags, the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Jags are coming off that massive win against Indy, but
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: we know Daniel Jones got hurt in the game, so
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: that made it worse, even though I don't think Indy
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: was gonna win anyway. But I also pointed out last
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: week that Indianapolis has not won in Jacksonville since twenty fourteen,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: so Andrew Luck was the quarterback the last time Indy
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: won at Jacksonville. So Jacksonville they dominate Indy at home. Man,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: this Jags team, they're an alright team. They're kind of
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: an enigma, like sometimes they look really good, sometimes they're awful.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: This just looks like a bad spot to me. Man.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a huge divisional win, which, by the way,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: put Jackxonville in sole possession of the AFC selth Plus
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: it knocked Indianapolis completely out of the playoffs and knocked
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis's quarterback out. So Jacksonville they're gonna be feeling, I think,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: pretty high off of that win. And speaking of high,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: they gotta go to Mile High next to so they
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: have a huge game next week against the Denver Broncos,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: and then they have the Colts again after that, so
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: they have big games coming up. Man, So this is
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot in my opinion for Jacksonville. So I
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: would take the points with the Jets. You're getting two
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: touchdowns now, and the total is also fairly low at
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: forty one. And for the Jags, I mean, I know
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: they've had some wins by margin like that, but to me,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: they they don't really strike me as a team that
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: just does that that often. As you can see here,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: they really kind of haven't done that. I mean, more
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: than half of their wins are I think, not by
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: a margin like this. So something to keep in mind
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: there with the Jags. But yeah, I would take the
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: points with the Jets in that one. I think you
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: could potentially argue the Jets are the better defense to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: getting a bunch of points. I just this one almost
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: made my card, man, and it probably will land in
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: in my pick five where I have to pick five games,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: you know, the super contest equivalent that I'm in for
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: money right now. I want to stay in the money.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: The Jets might make it into there, man, especially if
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: they're giving me fourteen. But I don't know if they
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: are in that contest, I'll have to look. But if
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: you're getting two touchdowns, man, that key number there. Yeah,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the Jets are the only way that I could play
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: that game. I'm not gonna lay the points in that one. William,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Yes? It is a sandwich, all right.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Next up, we have Brown's Bears, is gonna be another
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: one of my plays. You guys already know what my
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: plays are gonna be in these and Bill's Patriots is
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: my other one. So we're gonna get all of this done.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: In the one PM slate, all three of my plays happen.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Also in the one PM we have Ravens Bengals, and
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the public looks like they're gonna be hiding with the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Bengals here getting three points at home man, sixty three
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, seventy two percent of the cash
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: for now, But I think you might see this shift
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: around a game time. So I know I'm kind of
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: fading a lot of the market reads this week, but
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I am going with my situational handicapping man for most
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: of these, and I have an opinion that it's probably
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: not gonna change on most of these games, including this one.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I do not like the Cincinnati Bengals in this one. Man, Cincinnati,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not going anywhere this year. And yes,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I do talk about how when you have a team
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: that's done for the season, one of the games they're
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: gonna get up for is a divisional game where they
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: could spoil their divisional rival season. That does apply here, yes,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: so I do. That's why I'm not going to make
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Baltimore play here, because I do think Cincinnati will show
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: up for this game. I mean, it's against the Baltimore Ravens,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: but look at their last couple of games. Man. They
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: beat this Ravens team in Baltimore as a seven point
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: dog on Thanksgiving Night, and that was a loss for
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: me on the show, I know. But if you look
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: into this game, it was completely misleading and Baltimore had
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: five turnovers in the game. Lamar Jackson just completely threw
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the game away. Cincinnati did out gain Baltimore, but not
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: by that much. And Baltimore minus four and turnovers just
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: completely through the game. So that was a misleading result
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: of Baltimore, by the way, got screwed by a fumble
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: into the end zone as well for one of those
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: turnovers where they were about to go up eight points
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: in the second quarter with that touchdown and instead it's
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: a fumble through the end zone and the entire game
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: swung on that play. So you know, I hate that
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: touchback rule. It's absolute bullshit. You should not be an
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: inch away from getting a touchdown and then have the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: opposing team get the ball and have it be like
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a two score swing. It's just such ass. But yes,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: that game was not what it appeared. It was a
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: huge win for Cincinnati. And then Cincinnati had to play
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: on the road again last week in Buffalo and they
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off the upset in Buffalo. So now they're
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: coming off those two huge games. Now they get Baltimore home.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: And this is a divisional angle that also works where
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: when you have a team that in the first divisional
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: matchup they lost as a home favorite, like Baltimore did,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: they're actually a really strong play to play them on
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the road in the next game, especially actually if they're
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a small road favorite, and that is what Baltimore is here.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: So I do like Baltimore in this game. Baltimore also
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: is coming off an ugly loss last week. After that
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: loss of Cincinnati, Baltimore could not redeem themselves and they
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: lost to Pittsburgh last week. But you remember Baltimore probably
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: had that game won, dude. I mean, I thought that
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: was a bad call. Likely. I thought had the touchdown
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: and that would have won the game for Baltimore though
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't have covered. But this game was also misleading too,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: because if you look at what happened in this game,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Baltimore out gained Pittsburgh in this game four twenty to three, eighteens.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: So this final score was very misleading. Baltimore was much
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: much better in this game than the Steelers were in
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: The Steelers keep Mike Tomlining their asses into wins here, man,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how the Steelers keep winning
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: when they get outplayed. It's like the Mike Tomlin factor.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I don't get it, man. But I think this is
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be definitely a huge game for Baltimore and bounce
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: back spot. I do worry a little bit that the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: pressure is on because these high pressure situations when you
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: have to lay a favorite price. I do worry about
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: that a little bit because it's basically becoming a must
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: win territory here for the Ravens. But I still think
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: the Ravens are one of the top, like few teams
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: of the AFC, believe it or not, and they are
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: lined that way. So I do like the Ravens in
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: that game. That would be the way I would look
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: there new thoughts. As Clint and I called Donald, what
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: do we call him? No? I think Donald still sucks.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: He has a QBR of like sixty on the season,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: which is terrible and not terrible, but it's certainly not good.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: And over the last like four games his QBR is
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: like forty. He's He's actually asked, dude, he's not good
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: like these defenses that just know like defense is that
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: put pressure on him? He turns into a complete pumpkin.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: He's done, dude, Donald is done. He's not good. No,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: I mean Seattle's their defense is really what's good about Seattle.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: I underestimated their defense. Donald is not that good. I'm
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: telling you again, go look at his stats. His touchdown
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: interception ratio is absolutely terrible this year too. It's like
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: last I looked at it was like nineteen to ten.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Not impressive at all. Well, we're gonna talk, you know
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: how I feel about that game already this time too.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Chargers Chiefs is the next game up at one PM.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Huge game for really for the Chiefs. Fifty the tickets
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs, fifty two of the cash on the Chargers.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Chiefs are all the way up from a four and
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite to a six point favorite. And
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: you gotta think the public is gonna be looking at this.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: They just saw the Chargers beat the full l Via Eagles.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Chargers already beat Kansas City once in Week one in Brazil,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and you look at the team's records. The public wants
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with the Kansas City Chiefs at this point. Man,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: But you got to be thinking, how are the Chargers
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: getting six points in this game? Right? Well, the oddsmakers
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: are telling you the Chiefs are still the better team.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: I know. I lost in the Chiefs on the Sunday
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: night game. I know, but the Chiefs are not this
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: bad dude. I'm gonna keep saying it. They have the
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: better defense here. They're at home. They're five and two
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: at home. They've been much better at home the Chargers.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: They're also gonna be going into what I assume is
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be a really cold weather environment. Yeah, it's frigid
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: temperatures seventeen degrees here. Do you think an indoor team
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: from la is gonna really enjoy having to go to
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Arrowhead and playing in seventeen degree temperatures which probably with
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: the wind chill, you're gonna be looking at zero in
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: this game. Yeah. That doesn't look good to me for
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, dude, So I think that is going to
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: be a factor that should not be overlooked. Chargers are
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: coming up beating the Super Bowl champs now Philadelphia. The
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Chargers are almost essentially locked into the two spot in
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the AFC West at this point. Man, even though yes,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: this is a big game. Ideally they would like to
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs again, but on a short week like this,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City gonna be in complete desperation mode. I'm not
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: gonna make it a play. But Kansas City has looked
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: bad in front of a public audience two games in
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: a row as well, So you also want to look
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: towards seams that look bad in primetime games. And that
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: is what happened. So they lost on Thanksgiving at Dallas
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: and then they lost again for US on Sunday night,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs they could have won this game, dude,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: fairly easily. The game was ten to ten in the
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter, I'm pretty sure, and Kansas City threw the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: game away with turnovers. They actually outgained Houston in the game,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: although not by much. It was close, but the minus
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: three in turnovers like completely did the man. So if
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play this game, I would lay it
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: with the chief I don't really want to lay six
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs because the Chiefs are more of a
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: defensive oriented team. Chargers do like to slow the tempo down.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Total is fairly low and down to forty one and
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: a half, so I'm not going to do it. But
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: if you forced me to pick a side here, I
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: would lay the points with the Chiefs in that one.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: But you have lost a little bit of value on
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: it as well. But that is the way that I
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: see that game. But again, desperation mode, I don't really
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: love laying points. So they'll really for the Chiefs. I mean,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: their percentage chance to make the playoffs is so low
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: now that maybe they'll just start playing like a lot looser,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, now that they think they're
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: just not going to make the playoffs. So we'll see
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: what happens the final one PM game Redskins Giants. This
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: is the hardest game for me to figure out. I
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: can't figure this one out. I have an opinion on
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: pretty much every other game on the side this one,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: I really don't. Giants have flipped from a two point
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: dog to a two and a half point favor, but
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I think that was mostly because of the quarterback situation
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: where Jaden Daniels came back last week, he got hurt
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: again and he's done again. I think he's probably gonna
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: be done for the rest of the season. So now
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Marcus Mariota's back in again for Washington. But do you
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: think that really warrants flipping the Giants from a two
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: point dog to a two and a half point favorite
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: and maybe upwards of three. I don't really think so.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Giants seventy three percent of ticket seventy seven percent of
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, But well so, I guess I
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: do have a slight opinion on this one still. But yeah,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I think that the line is just like, it's an overreaction, dude.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, Mariota has basically outplayed Jadan Daniels this season.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Like Mariota's played every game for a while up until
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: last week, he played like six weeks in a row.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: So do you really think Washington's gonna be a disadvantage
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: just going back to him again? He finished the game
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: last week too, so Mariota, I mean he's in there,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: and he's actually played fairly well this year for Washington,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: So I don't think he's a downgrade at all. And
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I would argue that he might even be an upgrade
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: from Jayden Daniels, as ridiculous as that sounds. So I
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: don't think this line move is warranted. It is a
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: positive spot for both teams. The Giants, like I said,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye, and I talk about
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: this when a team goes into a buye and a
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: bad note, and the Giants could not have gone in
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: on a worst note. Really. They lost seven games in
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: a row, including losing to New England, which was a
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: win for us on the show here New England covered
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: for us. Going into the buy on a bad note
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: like that, I think it's a good thing to use
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: that you use that buy to fix things, you know,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: it stops that losing momentum, So it is a positive
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: spot for the Giants. The Giants did lose the season
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: opener pretty ugly twenty one to six at Washington. So
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: it is technically a revenge spot, a divisional revenge spot.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: But I think when the home team is the avenging team,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's as strong like because I mean
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of times you'll see if the team won
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: at home, a lot of times they will win again
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: on the road. So I don't think it's as strong
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: as when you have the avenging team being a road underdog.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: That's really like kind of the sweet spot or the
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Baltimore situation where the better team lost at home in
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: the first game. That's a sweet spot as well. This
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: not so much, but I do like the fact that
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye. And part of the
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: reason why we faded the Giants in that New England
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: game is because Jackson Dart came back, so it was
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: a reverse injured player spot in that game. So now
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Dart is gonna have his second game back. And I
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: talk about how teams like with the quarterback. The first
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: game back, they tend to not do as well because
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: he's got to get used to it again, the team
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: has to get used to playing with him again. But
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: that second game back, they usually do play better, and
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the fact they have a bye in there for Dart
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: to get some more reps and whatever that should help them.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna come in on Washington in this
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: game either, although I do lean to Washington. Still, Washington
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: isn't a spot where they're coming off getting shut out
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: thirty one to nothing. That was a win for us
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: on the show last week. We've I've had a good
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: gauge on Washington the last couple of weeks. Man. I
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: know we lost on them in the Luna or sorry,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the Madrid game, which we should not have. Washington should
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: have won that game out right against Miami. I'm still
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: pissed about it. They missed the plus two and a
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: half by a half point there, but then we did
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: get them right coming out of the by. They played
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: really well coming out of the by against Denver, almost
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: pulled off the upset on what was that Sunday night,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I think, And then because of that, I think they
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: were in a major hangover spot last week. Plus Jayden
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Daniels was coming back after a long layoff, so I said,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: you gotta fade Washington last week. Didn't expect it to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: be thirty one to nothing of course we got the
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: win with Minnesota. But now the fact that Washington's coming
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: off that teams that that have been shut out in
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: the NFL this season, they're four and oh, I'm pretty
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: sure both of the straight up and against the spread
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: coming off getting shut out. So teams that get shut
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: out bounce back really well typically in the NFL. So
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: that is the spot that Washington is in. You don't
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: even need them to win, really, you're getting probably gonna
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: be getting three points on them. And if you look
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: at what happened in this game, Washington exacerbated the problem
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: with three turnovers in the game. Jayden Daniels got hurt
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: in the game. You know, everything just kind of unraveled
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: for Washington. But they're not really as bad as they
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: looked in that game, man, And it's not like the
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Giants are exactly good. So I think Washington probably is
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the right side in that game. But that's one of
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: my That game is one of the ones that I
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: have the least strong opinion on going into the four pms.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Colts and Seahawks. Now you can see how this line moved, man,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: This line has moved from what was gonna be Seahawks
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half to fourteen. I mean, come on, man,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: you have to be kidding me. You really think that
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the Colts losing Daniel Jones is that really worth? What
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: is this like? Is it worth the line moving ten
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: and a half points? Are you kidding me? No? Like,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: no quarterbacks were ten and a half points. And Daniel
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Jones I don't even think he's that good, even though
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: he was, you know, top five in some quarterback metrics
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: this year, but he had started playing with a broken
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: fibula and then he got hurt even worse than the
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: game against Jacksonville. So now he's out. But I don't
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: see how Daniel Jones is that much of a drop
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: off for any team. And yes, I know the Colts
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: are going with Philip Rivers tomorrow man. Philip Rivers forty
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: four years old. He's been retired for like four years,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: and he's coming out of retirement and now he was
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be eligible for the Hall of Fame next year,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: and now he's not gonna be eligible for five more
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: years because he's coming out of retirement to play this game.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: So I can't quite get there with the Colts here, man,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: But I would take the points with the Colts. I mean,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: there is absolutely no value on the Seahawks here laying
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns when they were gonna be laying three and
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean, you seriously, you have to be
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: kidding me with this number. I mean, it's just ridiculous.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: I do worry Philip Rivers. I mean he's coming in
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: off off the couch, so I do worry about that
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: that he doesn't have enough reps. But the reason why
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the Colts signed him is because he's played in the
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Colts system before, so he does know the system. But
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: then again, like, are they gonna have the Colt's gonna
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: throw some wrinkles in here? Maybe they will on offense,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: because really, the Colts don't really have much to lose
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: at this point because it looks like they're after it
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: looked like it was they were guaranteed to make the playoffs.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: It now looks like they're out of the playoffs completely.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: So I think they're really just gonna be free rolling
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: in this game. You don't know what you're gonna get
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: out of them, And maybe with Rivers in there, maybe
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the offense is gonna do some weird things and maybe
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks won't really know what to do to defend it.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna say the Colts offense is
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be lighting it up or anything like that, but
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: you don't need them too to cover as a two
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: touchdown dog. I just think this is a spot where
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks are just gonna take it easy and get in,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: get out, man. Like, I don't love the spot at
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: all for Seattle. Here. Seattle's coming off a blowout win
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: as well in Atlanta, so they're having to return from
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: the East host out to the West coast. They're flying
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: cross country, which isn't that great, and they looked way
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: too good against Atlanta, and that is gonna look even
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: better because Atlanta just won on Thursday night against Tampa Bay,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: so that makes Seattle look even better. Oh and by
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the way, what does Seattle do next? Yeah, they got
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: to play the Rams on Thursday night and that game
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: is basically gonna be for the NFC West and it's
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: revenge because Seattle lost at La already, so that is
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: a huge game. And with the four day turnaround time,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle's gonna look right past the Colts in
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: this game. Man. So I the only way that you
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: can play this game is to take the points of
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: the Colts. That and the Colts looked awful in Jacksonville.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: But I already pointed out how the Colts just they
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: are miserable playing in Jacksonville. That's just, it is what
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: it is. And they lost to Dan they lost Daniel
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Jones in the game. Horrible game. But you always want
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to look to play on teams that look terrible in
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the previous game and against teams that look way too good,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: and that is also what you're doing. Here's yeah, the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: young man Philip Rivers coming in. Man, he gets to
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: take a break from having to deal with his eleven
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: children or whatever he has. Now here we go, baby
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers back for my Indian Appolis Colts. Oh my god,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I can't believe it. This season. I didn't think they
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: were gonna do anything this season, really, and now they're not.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: So there you go. We're right back where we started.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: This total has also dropped to forty two and a half,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: partially because of the Colts, I mean mostly because of
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the Colts quarterback situation. So total is lower now. Yeah,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Seahawks seventy six percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the cash on them but I'm not gonna buy into
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: that very much. I think taking the points of the
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Colts has to be the way that you play that
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: game if you're gonna do it. That one almost makes
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: my card very very close to making my card. You
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: got the Colts of fourteen already. There you go, man,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: you might even be able to get fourteen and a half.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be free balling. Philip Rivers is going command
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: man boot dude. That should be Washington's team name, the
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Washington Commandos. That would be better than the Commander's horrible
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: team name. All right, what else do we have here?
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: We have nice big game or no, wait, I'm skipping
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: a few games? What am I doing here? Actually, this
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: one's also a good game. Packers Broncos. Now this is
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: an interesting one because you can see here the Packers
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: are a road favorite at the Broncos, and the Broncos
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: I believe I want to say they're undefeated at home
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: this year. Right, Yeah, there's six and zero at home,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: although the Packers have been pretty good on the road
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: four one and one. But it's like, how could Denver
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: be a small underdog at home and they have the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: better record and they're undefeated at home, right, So the
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: public is going to come in on the Broncos in
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: this one. Fifty percent of the tickets, fifty eight percent
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: of the cash, it looks like right now. So this
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: is a rare situation where you have a public home
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: underdog in this one. And I always talk about how
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: when you see that setup, you want to look to
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: fade that team, and that is what I would do here.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the Packers here. The Osbegers are
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: telling you the Packers are the better team Broncos. I
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: know the record is good, but the Broncos have really
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: gotten by with a very easy schedule. I believe the
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Broncos have the second easiest schedule in the NFL so far,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: with the Patriots having the easiest, and the Bears are
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: up there too, But the Broncos they've gotten by with
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: an easy schedule so far. And yeah, I mean that
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: is just that's the crux of it really. And Denver
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: also is I mean, they're sitting at eleven and two.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: They're sitting really pretty atop their division right now. So
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: green Bay has more urgency here because green Bay is
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: in a cluster in the NFC North. They really got
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: to keep winning. Denver really has some padding there where
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Denver does not have as much urgency. I know Denver's
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: coming off a game where they were just kind of whatever,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: and they beat the Raiders, so you know, not really
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: a great game for them. Whatever. But in this game, man,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I do expect green Bay to show up. And yes,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: you could argue that green Bay is in a sandwich
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: because they did just beat both Detroit and Chicago. They've
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: actually won against all their division opponents in the last
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: three games, beating Detroit on Thanksgiving as well, huge win
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: and big win last week to beat the Chicago Bears man,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: and knock the Bears down behind them. So yes, I
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: do agree there is maybe a little bit of a
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: worry about about a letdown here. They do have the
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Bears again next which is gonna be another huge game.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I understand that they're in a bear sandwich here, which
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: not great. Man. The last time I was in a
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: bear sandwich, I was at a gay bar, So I
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: don't know. It's not the greatest situation to be in.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: And yes, they are having to go into elevation here,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: which I do worry about a little bit. So this
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: one doesn't make my card. But my opinion in this
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: game is Green Bay. However, I would also say that
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: if you wanted a teaser option, I actually think the
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Broncos teasing them up above the touchdown is actually a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: decent option. If you see the Broncos that might have
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: at one and a half, you would have to find
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: it at one and a half or better. So if
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: the Packers are minus one and a half and you
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: can tease the Broncos on a two team six point
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: teaser up to seven and a half, I do think
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: that's a good teaser leg because the Broncos they play
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of close games. Man, that's just the way
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: that it is. They're pretty much all defense and no offense.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't mind a teaser on the Broncos. I mean,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: I don't really think they're gonna lose my margin, but
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: I do think the Packers will escape with a win
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: in that game. And I don't really know what the
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: other teaser leg would be though, Like I would have said,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: knocked the Cowboys down from seven and a half, but
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: now that they're five and a half, because I don't
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: really think the Cowboys are gonna lose, But now that
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like a good option anymore. So, I mean
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: I struggle to find a teaser leg that I actually
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: like besides that one, so that is difficult, man. I mean,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: actually you could bump the Commanders actually or the Redskins.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, Actually that's probably what I would do. I
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: would take the Commanders up to plus eight and a
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: half the Redskins. That would be the teaser that I
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: would do. I'm giving out a teaser on every show now,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: but yeah, it has to be at two and a
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: half though for the Giants and not three. So I
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: would take Washington up to plus eight and a half
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: and Bronco's up to plus seven and a half. That
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: would be the teaser I would do. Okay, but yes, Packers,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: by the way, the other reason I like them is
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: because they're the more balanced team. Like, yeah, the Broncos
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: have the better defense, so the Packers' defense is also good.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: And the Packers definitely have the better offense. Broncos offense
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: is really not good, so the Packers definitely have more
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: balance there. And I think the fact that their offense
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: is better and their defense is fairly comparable, I think
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: that should help them get the job done as well.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Though that is the reason why the Packers are favored too.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: They're actually the better team. So that's what I would
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: do there, Master and Commander, Yeah, yeah, the masses. Yeah.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Not a reference to that movie. I don't think it's
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: probably it's just vague military reference. It's way too militaristic.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: It's pretty stupid. A twinkie. I mean, I don't know,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: would you wind up being a snack cake in that scenario? Maybe?
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I'm you know, I would be a bear as well
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: though as a game man, so I wouldn't really be one. No,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: all right. Panthers Saints also in the four PM slate here.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Panthers are a very public road favorite here eighty two
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, eighty percent of the cash on them.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: So I do agree with fading the Panthers in this one. Now,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, they're coming out of a buy, and they
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: went into that buy in a good note. And I
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: talk about this, when a team goes into the buy
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: and a good note, it's not really a good thing
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: because they don't really have anything to fix. And like,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: how can you go into the buy and a better
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: note than pulling off like a ten point upset over
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: the La Rams who might be the best team in
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the NFL right now. Huge win for Carolina, and that's
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: how they went into the buy. I just don't know
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna show up here. And they do have
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay next that is huge because of course Carolina
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, these two teams are fighting for the NFC South.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: One of those teams is gonna win the division, so
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: that is a huge game up next. So it is
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: a bit of a look ahead spot. Now. I have
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: some hesitations with New Orleans, though. One of them is
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: that Carolina lost really ugly at home to New Orleans already,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: so they fall into that spot that I talked about
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: with Baltimore as well, where Carolina loss is a home
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: favorite to the Saints, okay, and now in that second
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup, they are a road favorite. Just like I said,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: the Ravens set up that way. So that is a
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: reason to actually lean towards Carolina in the game because
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: they're one of those avenging divisional road favorites. In this one.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: The Saints are also not in a particularly good spot
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: because they just pulled off a big upset at Tampa Bay,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: so that is maybe a concern that they might be
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot, So I do worry about that
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: as well. So this definitely is not making my card.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: But the one thing you might be able to say
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: about New Orleans is that the thing that I always
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: say about teams that are going nowhere and they're dead
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: on the season, what are the types of games they
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: get up for, primetime games and games where they can
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: play spoiler against a divisional opponent. Well, they can do
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: that here. They have a chance. They just beat Tampa
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Bay and they have a chance to do the same
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: thing to Carolina and re spoil it for Carolina after
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: they just helped Carolina. Now they can hurt them. So
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I think New Orleans will get up for the game
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: for that reason. So yeah, slightly into taking the points
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: of New Orleans and that one for me. Then we
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: have another big game here, Lions Rams Rams look like
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: they're getting a lot of the money here, up from
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: four and a half to six fifty six percent of
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on the Rams.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree on this one though.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: This is one of the other ones where I don't
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: really have that strong of an opinion on it. This
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: one's one of the hardest ones for me to gauge. Now,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the Rams, they just blew out Arizona, so they bounce
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: back nicely from that. Loss to Carolina was misleading as well.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: They had turnovers in the game. They outgained Carolina, I'm
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: pretty sure. So they bounced back with a just destruction
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: of Arizona and they did outgain in Arizona. They dominated
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: them statistically, so not really a misleading result there. Now
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: they are coming back home only going from Arizona to
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: La though, but they do have that huge game that
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I mentioned already against Seattle on Thursday night, so that
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: is a potential look ahead. Ale though, do you think
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: the Rams are gonna overlook the Lions. I don't really
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: think so. I think it's a big game. Plus, it's
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: the Goff Stafford thing, you know what I mean, Like
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: both teams get up for this. However, I still think
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Golf plays with more of a chip on his shoulder, man,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: because Stafford is the one of the two quarterbacks who
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: actually won a Super Bowl after that trade, right Stafford
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: one one with the Rams already. Golf has not won
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: one in his career, so Goff, I think, does play
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: with a chip on his shoulder against Matthew Stafford. Rams
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: are really good at home five and one at home.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Lions have been mediocre on the road three and three.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: But for the Lions, they do have extra time off
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: because they played on Thursday. But they look good on
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Thursday and that was a win for us on the show.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: They beat Dallas and covered on Thursday night. Now they
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: have to go out to the Pacific Coast, although at
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: least for them, it's not a late night game, so
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: it's only a four to twenty five PM game, so
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't be like out of energy or anything like
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: that in this one. Now, the market red does look
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: like it's fairly strong on the Rams in this one,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: so I haven't really formed a total opinion on this yet.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: My initial instinct was leaning towards Detroit. With the extra
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: rest and with LA having this look ahead to the
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Seattle next, Detroit kind of needs the game a little
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: bit more and they're getting a bunch of points. So
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: I talk about how when a team kind of needs
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the game, I don't love like laying them as a
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: favorite or anything like that, because they're probably gonna be
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: overvalued in the market. But when they're an underdog and
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: the other team is actually probably being the overval team
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: in the market. That is a situation that I don't mind.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: Where you got Detroit and you like pretty much know
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get an effort out of them, and they're
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: an underdog, So I don't know. I mean, I'm slightly
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards Detroit in that one, but definitely
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: some concerns with it. Then to finish off the four
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: pm slad, Oh, we have a great one here. Titans
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Niners are twelve and a half point favorite,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: cash on the Niners. Man, I mean the Niners. They're
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, and I talked about it.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: You know, I'll talk about it again, the lie of
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: excuse me. The Niners went into the buy on a
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: three game win streak, So I say this, I'm gonna
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: say it again. When you go into the buy in
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: a good note, it could stop your winning momentum. So
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I don't like the fact that San Francisco had a
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: buy then, and all the rest of their games on
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the season are against winning teams, against Indye, Bears and
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So this looks like the down spot in
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the schedule to me. Remember, they won't totally show up
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Now, Tennessee, they are having to go to
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast. It's not that easy. Second straight road game.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that. But what I like is,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I do actually like that they beat Cleveland last week
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: in that just game that was way higher scoring that
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: people thought it would be. Tennessee really probably didn't have
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: any business winning that game, but they did, and what
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: that did is it ended a long loss streak for them.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: So I think that will give Tennessee a little bit
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: of confidence coming into this one. So I would take
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the points with the Titans, Like, I just don't know
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: that the Niners are gonna come in and win this
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: thing by margin. And the Niners, I mean, there's still
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: kind of a beat up team with like a decent
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: amount of injuries. So people were also gonna see that
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: the Niners beat Cleveland by even more on the road,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: and of course the public's only going to come in
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: on the Niners in this game. So yeah, I think
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Tennessee would be a slight opinion for me on that one.
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: Then we have the Sunday night game is Vikings Cowboys,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys look like they're public, and they're now
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: five and a half favorite instead of a seven and
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: a half way favorite. But I'm pretty sure that the
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: seven and a half was the look ahead. So again,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: you can't when you're looking at the numbers here on pregame,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: you can't really say that that was entirely a like
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: just a market move, because this opener was actually the
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: look ahead the previous week. So I think the Cowboys
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: were gonna be a seven and a half point favorite,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: and then what happened. They looked not great against Detroit.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: They lost to Detroit. The Vikings looked awesome, winning thirty
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: one to nothing. So I think that gives us line
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: value on the Dallas side now after that, even though, yeah,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Dallas is gonna be public eighty percent of the tickets,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on them, but I'm still
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: not gonna buy JJ McCarthy man. I mean, yeah, he
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: had a good game against Washington. I know Dallas's defense
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: is not good. Washington's is also not good, but Dallas'
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit better recently, is at least,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: And I just don't trust McCarthy at all to string
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: together two dcent performances. And again, just like I said,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: with Washington coming off an ugly blowout shutout loss, the
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: team that's on the right side of that the shutout win,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: you usually want to fade those teams that pulled off
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the shutout win in the next game because they're gonna
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: be a bit overvalued. So I don't like Minnesota. Hear it, man,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: And Minnesota, they're gonna get up for it because it
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: is a game at Jerry's World whatever. In Dallas, it
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: is a primetime game, so even if Minnesota is done
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: for the season, they will get up for a game
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: like this, although they do play the Lions and Green
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Bay to finish it off the season. Actually they play
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: the Giants next, my mistake, so not a look ahead
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: there because they play the Giants next. So yeah, they
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: will get up for it. But I like Dallas. Here man,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Dallas coming off again. We saw them play bad on
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Thursday night they lost to Detroit, but I predicted that,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: and now they have extra rest because they didn't play
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: us since Thursday. So I think you're gonna see a
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: focus Dallas cowboy team in this one. That is what
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: I expect. I do worry a little bit that you're
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: looking at the Vikings being the better defense getting points,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times I do like to look
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: that way. That is definitely the case of the Vikings
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points. But the Cowboys offense is way
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: better than the Vikings offense though, so there's a huge
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: disparity there, and I think again, the spot is a
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: lot better for the Cowboys. I think you're actually getting
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: line value on them. One other concern though, would be
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: that the Cowboys are kind of in desperation mode now
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: where they're probably not gonna make the playoffs and they
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: gotta win h So you're getting a team that might
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: have a lot of pressure on them here, man. So
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I don't love laying points in a situation like that,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: So it's a stay away from me, but I do
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: lean to laying it with Dallas. Then we have Monday
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Night Dolphins and Steelers, and it looks like the market
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Reid is saying the Steelers right now with fifty percent
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: of the tickets evenly split sixty two percent of the
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: cash on the Steelers. They're a three point favorite at home,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: it might hit three and a half. Now, I mean,
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: are the Steelers like are the Steelers gonna Mike Tomlin
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: this thing again? I don't know, man, but it seems
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: like the Miami hype is like not happening in this game.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Like Miami had all this ype around them, like, oh,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Miami keeps winning, They're gonna make the playoffs from out
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: of nowhere, And actually they might because they're gonna catch
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati and Tampa Bay and in good spots to catch them.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: So as crazy as it sounds, Miami might actually make
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: a run to get into the playoffs here. Now, I
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: like Miami in this game, but I have some problems
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: with it. I'll talk about Pittsburgh first because I think
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's in a bad spot. I mean, they just beat
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Baltimore on the road. That's a huge win. They pulled
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: off the upset. They probably deserved to lose with that
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: likely touchdown that was called not a touchdown. Like I said,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: I think he had control of it in the end zone.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: I didn't like the call in Pittsburgh. As I showed you.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: They got out gained by over one hundred yards in
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: that game by Baltimore, so it was a misleading result.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: It was a huge win, huge upset win. Now they
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: get Miami, and yes, it is a primetime game, so
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: maybe Pittsburgh will show up. But that win against Baltimore
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: also put Pittsburgh in sole possession of first place again here,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna be in a letdown spot
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: coming off of that. Man, So I do lean to Miami,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: but my problems with it are, first of all, Miami
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: is coming off a blowout win, although it was only
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: against the Jets, so I mean, you can't be that
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: impressed by that. But I don't really love jumping on
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: teams that are coming off a blow out win like that.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: It's a second straight road game. And the biggest concern
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: I have is Toua playing in freezing cold. Now, he
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: did win at the Jets, but like I pointed out,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: that game was not freezing temps. That game was like
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: in the mid to high forties, so that was not
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: really a cold weather game. Now this game is absolutely
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: a cold weather game Pittsburgh. It's not gonna be a
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: nice man, we don't actually, Oh no, I'm looking at
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: the wrong one. I'm looking at the Jets game. Hang on,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: because the weather forecast should be here. Yeah, in Pittsburgh,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be nineteen degrees, and I believe when I
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: heard the weather forecast, they said it was gonna be
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: negative ten with wind show. And it's at night, remember,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: So this is gonna be a cold game, man, and
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Tua is zero to five I think, both straight up
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and against the spread in freezing temperature games. So his
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: track record is against him in this one, man. And
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: the last time he played in a game that was
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: this cold with like below freezing wind show, it was
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: that playoff game at Kansas City, and I gave out
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Kansas City as a play here on the show when
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: that happened a couple of years ago. And you guys
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: remember that it was a win for us with Kansas City.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: So I like Miami to cover in this one, but
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: there are some real concerns with it, man, so I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: do worry about it. So I think you gotta stay away,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: even though I leaned to Miami getting the points here,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: but I really worry about the Tua. Cold weather thing
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: is real, man. He just doesn't do well in these
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: really freezing tempts. And that's what it's gonna be again,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: a night game. It's gonna be as cold as possible.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that is worrisome for them. So that's what
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I look at with that one. Players of color will
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: not play well. Yeah, Miami's probably gonna try to cool
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: themselves by uh or see, Miami is probably gonna be
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: even a chillier, let me say by, because they're probably
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: gonna have to wear white uniforms. Pittsburgh's probably gonna wear
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: their black home uniforms as usual, which should help them
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: trap some heat as well. That's what I meant to say.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: All right, best bets, let's go. We got three of
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: them here, man, and I still have to figure out,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: like for my pick five, the five contests that I'm mean,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: I think one of them is gonna be the Colts,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: and I haven't decided on the other one. It might
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: wind up being the Jets. I mean, I don't know, man,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: I gotta figure it out. But best bets, we're getting
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: to it right now. Let me see what's the order
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do these in the first one up is
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Arizona Cardinals plus ten. You might be
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: able to get ten and a half on this now, man,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: So either way ten and a half, ten and a
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: half is better because ten is a key number you
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: can get the hook on this, We're gonna take the
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: points with the Arizona Cardinals here man, eighty percent of
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: the tickets, ninety one percent of the casual on the Texans,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: they're gonna wind up being a public side. But do
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: you really want to lay double digits with this Texans
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: team where they're basically all defense. Their offense is really
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: really a struggling offense, man, So I don't know if
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get margin for that reason.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: But it's also not a good spot for Houston because
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: they're coming off of three straight big wins where they
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: won for us on the show, they won Mister Thursday Night,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: getting it right with Houston beating Buffalo in prime time
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: on Thursday Night. That was a huge win. The next week,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: what did they do, They went into Indy and they
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: beat Indy still with Daniel Jones at the time, and
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: that was a huge divisional win at the time to
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: get back into the race and the division for Houston.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: And then they turned around and what do they do.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: They beat us on Sunday Night they beat Kansas City.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: So everybody saw that Houston went into Kansas that he
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: even beat them, and it was even bigger because Houston
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: had not been a really good cold weather team. As
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: I pointed out CJ. Stroud had not won a game
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: from December onward outdoors. He had n't won one in
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: his career yet. And they got the win there, and
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: again it was a little bit misleading. It was a
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: close game statistically, Patrick Mahomes had three interceptions in the game.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Was a very un Mahomes like performance in that game, man,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: So it was kind of a misleading result. Everybody saw it.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Everybody saw Houston get that win. But it was even
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: bigger because it was double playoff revenge, I believe for Houston.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that Houston was knocked out of the
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: playoffs each of the last two years, if I'm not
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: mistaken by Kansas City or No. It was once. No,
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: it was once. I think they lost to Kansas City
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: in the regular season. The other time my mistake. But
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: it was playoff revenge because Kansas City eliminated them last year.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: So that was a huge win for Houston for all
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: those reasons. After that string of wins, I just don't
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna get out of them here, man.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: I think it might be a flat spot here, even
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: though yeah, they got to keep playing. But that was
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: big as far as the wildcard implications. Man, the fact
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: that they beat Buffalo and Kansas City, so they have
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker in the wildcard against both of those teams.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: Beating Indy also huge because now they have a tiebreaker
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: over them too, and that's a divisional opponent. They already
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: have a tiebreaker over the Ravens as well if the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Ravens are gonna be in the wildcard hunt. So all
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: of that, that was a huge win for so many reasons. Man,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Now they're not gonna really be looking ahead to the Raiders.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't think, but I just think this is a
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: massive letdown spot for Arizona. I just think they're gonna
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: show up, man, after an embarrassing loss to the Rams.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona has not been embarrassed that often this season.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: If you look at their losses on the season. I
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: know the record is terrible at three to ten, but
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: their losses are by one, three, one, four, four. And
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: then they had a blowout loss at Seattle, but the
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: yards was really close in that game. They actually outgained
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: San Francisco in the game that they got to destroyed
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: in that game. Then they lost by three in a
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: game that we lost on it on it by a
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: half point they probably should have won against Jacksonville. Then
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: they lost again by three, and then last week. Yeah,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: this one was not really misleading. Yes, they got blown
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: out by the Rams, but I think they're gonna come
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: off of that and actually show up for a game.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: And I know I usually say that a dead team
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: like Arizona they're only gonna show up for divisional spoiler
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: games and for primetime games, but I think they will
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: show up in this one, just because no team wants
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: to get embarrassed like they did last week. So I
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: think they are gonna show up with some effort in
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: this one, even though I know they are zigzagging kind
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: of across the country, which I don't love. They had
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: to go to to Tampa then back to Arizona. Now
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: it's only Arizona to Texas though, so it's not really
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: a huge leg there of a journey, and you're getting
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of points here in this one. So and
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: again I don't really understand the move because it looks
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: like the Texans were gonna be a seven point favorite
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: on the look ahead another ten and a half just
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: because of what we saw last week pretty much like
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: there's no quarterback switch or anything like that. Here. It
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: is going to be Jacoby Brissette against CJ. Stroud. So
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but we're taking the points of Arizona.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: That's the first play there. You had the pens and regulations.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: That sucks. I didn't see what happened in the game.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: That was a game. I had a lot of difficulty
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: trying to handicap that best bets. Yes, sir, all right,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: next up the next game is let me see what
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: else do we have here? Oh? Yes, my favorite one. Man,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot. We're gonna take the Cleveland
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: Browns plus seven and a half. You knew this was coming.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: We're gonna fade the Chicago Bears, baby, and this is
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: a low total by the way of thirty eight. So,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: you know, I like taking points when it's supposed to
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: be a bad offensive game, and I think we do
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: have two bad offenses year. You know me, I don't
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: like Sugar Sanders or Caleb Williams. I think they're both
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: ass So it's like, which one of these quarterbacks should
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: I Which one of these quarterbacks do I want to play?
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: I can't stand either of them, and I don't think
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: they're either of them are any good. Well, we're going
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: with the spot here. We're gonna take Cleveland uh seventy
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: nine per tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: the Bears for now. But I mean, I think they're
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be a public side. Man. The public is still
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Bears. They're not gonna knock the
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Bears for playing really close against green Bay. But that
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: is exactly why we're gonna fade Chicago in the spot man. Chicago,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: they did have that huge game against Green Bay. Man,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: and they almost were able to tie that at the end.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: If you saw that, they actually probably would have gone
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: for a two point conversion if they scored. But I
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: don't know if you saw that. But the Bears they
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: were down multiple scores in that game. At multiple points
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: they cut it back to seven. They had to drive
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: right at the end of the game where they could
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: have scored. They were deep in Green Bay territory, could
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: have scored the potentially game tying touchdown or maybe even
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: game winning touchdown, and what do they do. They had
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: to put it in Caleb Williams's hands, and he threw
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: a horrendous interception right near the goal line, and that's
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: how they lost. That is a massively deflating loss. Man,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: And they'd beaten Philadelphia on Black Friday on the road
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: the game before that, so they played. They've actually played
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: three games on the road in their last four games,
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: so they've been all over the place. And that loss
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: to Green Bay not only was it a heartbreaking loss
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: and a huge divisional game and it cost them first place,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: but they lost a huge win streak. So I think
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: for all those reasons it's gonna be a massive hangover
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: spot here. Oh and by the way, I said it
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: was a sandwich. Yeah. Who do they play next? Oh? Yeah?
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: They played Green Bay next, and that's gonna be one
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: of those Saturday NFL games where the Saturday games are
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: starting now, so they have a short week and they
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: have to play Green Bay again in revenge, which is
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: of course a huge divisional game too. So I don't
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: see them showing up for this game against Cleveland. Man,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: And again, I don't see a Caleb Williams led offense
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: doing this. And how many times have has Chicago won
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: by a margin like this? Kigo. They were a public
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: road underdog last week and now they've switched from being
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: a seven point dog against Green Bay or six and
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: a half point dogs, now a seven and a half
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: point favorite. I don't like that either. When you see
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: a team go from a big dog one week and
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: the public was on them, and now the public is
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: on them again, but now they're a big favorite the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: next week, I don't like that either. Man. I think
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: there is some value in fading them. And if you
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: look at what the Bears have done, they faced an
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: easy schedule. I keep talking about how the Bears are
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: extremely overrated and how many times have they won by margin?
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: They did it against Dallas where they caught Dallas in
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: a spot that was really bad for Dallas. Then they
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: won by one one. They beat New Orleans by margin,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: which was a loss for us on the show, but
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: it's New Orleans. They suck. Then they won by five, four, two, three,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: and then yes, they did win by nine at Philadelphia.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: But still they're not winning by margin here, man, So
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: you're basically asking them to do that here against Cleveland.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: And by the way, Cleveland absolutely has the better defense here.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: So that's another thing where you're getting points with the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: better defense, and I think the defense will show up
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: because Miles Garrett is going for like some overall sack record.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: I think. So Miles Garrett is chasing I think the
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: NFL's like career sack record, I think is what he's
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: actually chasing. So he needs like two and a half more.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: So he's gonna be balling out, I think, man and
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: trying to get to Caleb Williams here. So you got
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: that going. Yes, I know the Browns are bad on
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: the road one and five, but we don't need them
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: to win. We only need him to cover. Bears are
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: going at home four and one, but as I talked about,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: they don't really cover. They don't win by margin. That
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: often horrible spot for the Bears. And uh yeah, I
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: mean I don't know if there was anything else I
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: was gonna point out. Yeah, the one thing I do
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: worry about. Oh yeah, this is what I was gonna
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: say is that Cleveland. I know I'm gonna say it again.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: When a team is dead like Cleveland, I say they're
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: only gonna get up for primetime games, divisional spoiler games,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: and this is neither of those. But I still think
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get up for it because they just lost
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: at home to the Tennessee Titans, dude, I mean, come on,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: it doesn't get much worse than that, losing as a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: home favor to the Titan. So I think they're gonna
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: be up for that reason, and they're gonna want to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: play for Shadura Sanders man, even though I don't like him.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's good. But Sanders he's a rookie man.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: So the team's not gonna abandon a rookie quarterback who's
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: playing like his he's making like his uh what his
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: third start ever? Yeah, I mean, they're not gonna abandon
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: a quarterback that's in that position, you know what I mean.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: They'll show up for that quarterback. So I expect them
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: to show up for that reason. So we're gonna take
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: the Browns plus the points in that one, dirty sock.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: What's up man, Thanks for hanging out? Thank you? Sorry, Yes,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: that's right. Oh look at this. Everybody go on Twitter
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: for ex comb or zero and everybody goes shit on
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: the stupid fuck Look at this guy. What a fucking asshole.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Fuck off. Get out of my fucking stream, you bitch.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: I'm banning him, by the way. Suck my cock, you
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: fucking dick. Yeah, Yeah, you're glad I lost my job,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: eat my ass fucker. Yeah. Also yeah, yeah, Oh it's
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: fun to just play with people's lives like that, isn't it. Yeah,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: when I'm just a normal dude. But guess what, I've
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: made more money already in like less than two decades,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: and you'll make in your entire life, you piece of shit.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: I've made a ton of fucking money, dick wad. Everybody
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: go on Twitter and yeah, fucking slam that guy's DMS.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: I don't care fucking shit on that guy. Ex Comber Zero,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna do it too, so fuck him
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: all right. Last I'm giving up gold on this show too.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: My NFL has been awesome. Last play is the Buffalo
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Bills minus one. That's what we're gonna do here. And
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention because Packers Broncos
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: also falls into this scenario. This is ridiculous, So we
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: have in the NFL. There's only been one time ever
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: where a team won ten games in a row and
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: then they were a home underdog in the following game.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: The only time it ever happened was the Pittsburgh Steelers
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: in the AFC Championship game against the New England Patriots
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: in I believe two thousand and five, and the Steelers
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: lost that game. Of course, the Patriots won the Super
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Bowl yet again that year. That was the only time
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: that that's ever happened. A team had won ten games
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: in a row and then they were a home underdog. Well,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: it's happening twice this week, and it's these two games
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: Packers Broncos has won. The Broncos have won ten games
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: in a row and they're an underdog at home. And
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: the Patriots have won ten games in a row and
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: darre an underdog at home. So that is crazy. And
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: I know there's no real historical trend when it's only
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: happened once, but it's just insane. And I think the
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: odds makers, really they're just telling you something. Man. There's
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: a reason why both those teams are home underdogs, and
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: it's because they're playing a team that's actually better than
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: they are. So I said the Packers are better than
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: the Broncos, Well, the Bills are better than the Patriots
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: two and the oddsmakers are telling you that. And I
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: think there's value as well here because the Bills they
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: were an eight eight and a half point favorite at
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: home against the Patriots. And yes, the Patriots are probably
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: better than we thought they were at that point. Patriots
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: won that game outright, But that was a game of inches, really, man,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: But the Patriots easily could have lost that game if
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: one play went differently than won by three. Yes, it
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: was a huge win for the Patriots. But if the
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: Bills were an eight and a half point favorite at home,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: and these teams probably only get at most like two
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: points maybe for a home field, then the Bills should
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: really be like basically a field goal favorite here. They
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: should probably be about minus three. So you're actually getting
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: value on the Bills here. Man. It looks like they
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: have sixty percent of tickets fifty six percent of the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: cash right now. But I don't really buy that the
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: Bills are gonna be a public side here. Look, why
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: would the public fade New England when you're asking basically
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: just which team is gonna win the game? New England
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: already won at Buffalo and New England hasn't lost since
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: like Week three, So yeah, I don't buy that the
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: public is gonna be off of New England here. Now
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: that sets up a scenario that I talked about already.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: That applies to the Ravens and the Panthers. Although I
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: said I don't like the Panthers this week, I do
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: like the Ravens, and I really like Buffalo. But Buffalo
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: is in that same scenario where they lost the first
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup as a home favorite, and now they're a
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: road favorite in the avenging role on the road the
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: second time on the season, So Buffalo falls into that spot.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: So I like Buffalo for that reason. Now Buffalo is
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: coming off a win against Cincinnati, but Cincinnati's just down
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: this year. Man. I know it was Cincinnati with Burrow,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: but Buffalo probably could have and maybe should have won
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: that game more than they did. They did outstat Cincinnati
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: in the game. The game was close, so though Burrow
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: threw a pick six and Buffalo was actually winning by
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: margin right near the end of that game, and then
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: they gave up a backdoor cover actually right at the
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: end of the Cincinnati was winning the game for a
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: lot of it, but Buffalo, basically they didn't play well
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: as a favorite there. So now Buffalo, yes, I know,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: they're playing a third straight road game in four weeks,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: so I worry about that a little bit, but most
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: of it there wasn't much traveling, man. I mean they
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: were only in Pittsburgh, then back in Buffalo, and now
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: they're at New England. That's not that much travel. They
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: go to New England every year, so that's not bad either.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: It might snow up here in New England. But I
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: mean you're talking about the Buffalo Bills. You think they're
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be thrown off by a snow game. Obviously not.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure their game last week was in snow
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo. I think it was snowing last week. So yeah,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: they're not going to be thrown off by snow. And
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: in fact, guess who might be impacted negatively more by
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: the snow. Yeah, that would be the quarterback that played
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: it North Carolina, Drake May. I don't think he's really
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: played like a snow game yet man, so he might
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: actually be more impacted by snow game. If it is
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be a snow game, Josh Allen will be the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: quarterback that will handle it better, for sure. So I
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: like all that. And then New England. I think New
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: England's in a terrible spot. And I already talked about
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: how New England has faced a very easy schedule, which
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: they have. I mean they've had the weakest schedule in
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: the entire league this year. Man. They have like the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: one really good win was the one at Buffalo, and
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: since then, what have they done? They beat Tampa Bay,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: but Tampa Bay's falling apart. I mean, they've had an
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: unbelievably weak schedule. All the rest of their wins are
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: against losing teams Miami, well, Carolina, I guess it is
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: technically a winning team now New Orleans, Tennessee, Atlanta, Cleveland,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: the Jets, Cincinnati, which was I believe still without Joe
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Burrow at the time, right that was Flacco, and then
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the Giants. This has been an unbelievably easy schedule. New England,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, And what did I say earlier in the
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: show New England's coming out of a bye? And when
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: I talk I talk about this, when you go into
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: a buy and a good note, it tends to be
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: a momentum stopper. Well, how could you possibly go into
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: the buy in a better note than winning ten games
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: in a row and then going into the buy? So
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: I think this is a very disadvantageous buy man. I mean,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: you do not want anything to stop your momentum when
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: you've won ten games in a row. This is something
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: that basically is never gonna happen, having a buy interfering
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: with a ten game win streak. Yeah, this looks bad. Man.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: I think New England might drop two games in a
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: row here because they do have to go to the
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: Ravens next. So yeah, I think Buffalo is gonna get
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: this one. Man. Maybe we do have to worry a
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: little bit about what happened today because I don't know
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: if you saw, but Buffalo their hotel is in the Providence,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Rhode Island area, and I don't know if they were
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: doing that to try to avoid having New England figure
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: out where their hotel was, because if you remember, under
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: the Belichick gym, the Patriots, like fans and the organization
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: were always fucking with the opponent's hotel, but the opponents
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: were almost always in a hotel in Boston at like
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: Logan Airport for whatever reason. So like they were always
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the opponents were always getting fucked with and having like
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: fire alarms pulled and all this shit. So I think
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: maybe that's why Buffalo is saying, no, we're not gonna
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: do that, We're gonna stay in Providence. Providence is actually
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: I think closer to Foxborough anyway than Boston is. Foxboro
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: is kind of between the two. But Buffalo is staying
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: in Providence, and there was a shooting at their hotel.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: If you didn't see, I think there were two people
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: killed and eight people injured in a mass shooting event
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: if you want to call it that, like at at
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: or near their hotel. Now, it didn't affect anybody on
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bill's team or whatever, but still that's kind
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: of crazy. So I guess the question is, well, first
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: of all, did New England do that? I'm just kidding.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: Is New England fucking with Buffalo that much? And it
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: was Josh McDaid and you know they get the composite
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: of the compositive sketch of the shooter. Holy crap, that
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: looks a lot like Josh McDaniels. Man. No, I don't
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: think that's what happened. But how is Buffalo gonna respond
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: to this? You know, I talked about it with Dallas
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: when they were coming out of their by when they
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: had their player who committed suicide, Neeland, I think it
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: was his name. I think that it's gonna be something that,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: if anything, will rally the team even more like if
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: they were at a hotel where a mass shooting happened,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: you know, a tragic event like that. I think they're
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: gonna want to get out and play some football. Man.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna motivate the more they can use
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: the football game to focus on the game and not
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: focus on what has happened at the hotel. So I
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: actually think it might motivate Buffalo a little bit more.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: So we're on the Buffalo Bills. And that's it, man,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: That's all of it this week. Those are all the
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: games this week. Here we go, Yes, get on Twitter
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: and yes, sir Schwartz Encyclopedia. Well not since my stroke really,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: but I've been like that for like my entire life. Basically. Yeah,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: I sports knowledge is insane thing. I don't really think
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: it is. I don't know the personnel that well at all. Yeah.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Game of inches, Yeah, yeah, that that happens to me
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: a lot. Yeah, a classy hotel. I'm pretty sure that
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: like New England, like the Patriots like would pay for
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: their opponent's hotel, I think, or whatever and put them
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: up in a particular hotel. But like all the fans
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: knew where the hotel was, and like and the Patriots
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: staffed it, and they would they would definitely go in
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: and like pull fire alarms at like three or four
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: in the morning and stuff the night before the game.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: It was bullshit, that's what they did. And I'm pretty sure, Yeah,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: it was some hotel in New Logan Airport. I'm pretty sure. Uh,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: but I'm assuming that the hotel that Buffalo's in is
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: probably a good hotel in Providence. Like, I don't think
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna stay in some crap hotel. They're probably staying
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: in a good one. But shootings happen everywhere now men.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: You can't avoid it, you know what I mean. Like
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: you go into the city, especially in Boston where everything's
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: really close. It's like you're on like Newberry Street, which
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: is like the rich shopping area in Boston, and they
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: were just homeless people still like basically everywhere right near there,
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: like druggies everywhere, you know what I mean. Like, you
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: can't avoid it. The rich have to mingle with it.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: It's like, dude, like these rich elite, like you know,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: New England or whatever, the coastal liberal elites, Like do
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: you do you not see like that you're having to
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: walk through like this disaster every single day, why do
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: you keep voting for it? Like? What are you doing?
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: Although voting isn't gonna do anything anyway. But and now
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: we have, you know, an unelected communist mayor is what
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: we have in Boston. Now, she ran unopposed, so she
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: didn't even get elected in this one. She had no opponent.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: So we have a communist dictatorship in Boston. So isn't
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: that just awesome? All right, that's gonna do it. I
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: gotta get some sleep and whatever. Once again, the NFL
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: plays tomorrow are the Cleveland Browns plus the points. Actually
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: I think I talked about Arizona first, but Arizona plus
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: the points. Hopefully you can get the hook on that.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: But I would still take the plus ten as well.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: And Buffalo minus one one and a half. Not much
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: of a difference if you find a good money line price,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: obviously that's fine as well. Those are the plays. I'll
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: be back tomorrow morning because there's probably some NAHL in
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: NBA to talk about tomorrow, I assume, so we'll talk
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: about that. It'll be a short morning video. Probably we'll
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: do the final NFL market read and I'll talk about today,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: which was a winning day, so I'm happy about that,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. I was gonna run, actually, but Josh
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: Kraft was running, and he is the son of Robert Kraft,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: the Patriots owner, and he was running, I believe, still
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: as a Democrat, but he was opposing He was opposing
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: Mayor Wu from the right. But he dropped out of
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: the race. It's just totally ridiculous. But he was like
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: saying some things that were like all right, like he
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: was taking more of a more of a right wing
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: stance on a bunch of things than Wu was, or
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: at least there was that even though he's still, you know,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: a progressive Democrat, which I don't like, but he was
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: almost he was almost turning into more of like a
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we want to say, like a
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Kennedy Democrat, but that's kind of what he was trying
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: to do, I think. But I don't know why he
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: dropped out because, like, dude, Wu does not have any
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: actual support, Like she's the first mayor in my lifetime
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: that was not a Bostonian, like all the mayors that
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: we've had prior to her were born bred Bostonian, like
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: Boston accent. These guys, you know, they get elected because
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: they're like the dudes, Like like people grew up with
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: these dudes, you know what I mean, even if you
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: don't like like I didn't like Mayor Walsh at all,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: he was a Unionist, but still, you know, like you
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: had guys like that, Like it was obvious why they
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: got elected. Mayor Minie, you know, was the best, by
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: the way, rip because he was just so stupid that
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: he never really he never really was able to do
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: anything that bad. He was just kind of a bumbling
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: fool and it was hilarious. Seem like a guy you
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: wanted to hang out with, though, so which is probably
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: why he got elected and re elected. But yeah, I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: don't know if he got blackmailed or not, because I
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: mean craft, I mean, you know, they're all on the
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: side of Israel and whatever. So let's not get my
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: channel nuked. Here, Everybody go after x comb or zero
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: on Twitter telling me he's an ass, and that's gonna
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: do it for now. Learn it tone on Twitter, and
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: learn it tone on Instagram, Like subscribe, give me good
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: replies on the channel here, go listen on audio. Give
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: me a you know good review. On audio. That's good.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: You know. All that helps covered in yuke on YouTube
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: is my YouTube yuke channel, Patreon dot com, slash learn
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: to Tone and you can get some bonus yuke stuff
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: there plus requests. Sorry, Charles, dude, I gotta look to
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: see if you gave me a Christmas one or whatever.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: I apologize, but my voice is also not great right
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: now either. But I also got to figure out because
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: I have subscript on Twitter now, so I might put
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: some of the content behind it to try to get
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: more people to subscribe, because it's like, well, what other
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: content do I have that people really like? You know
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: what I mean? So that's probably what I'm gonna do.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: So check that out justin Thanks for hanging out man,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: good night to you as well. Nate, Yes, mumbles mean
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: that was his name. The best one was when he
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: called Jon Rondo Hondo. That's the one that everybody remembers man,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: when he was talking about the Celtics after they won,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: because I think he was still mayor then in two
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: thousand and eight or whatever. We got Hondo over here.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: You can go find that clips. It's pretty hilarious. Oh
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: he went on Jim Rome or whatever. I forgot about
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: that show. Hell yeah, Mayor, we need a Mayor like
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: that again, at the very least, even though he was
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: a Democrat, so he sucked still, but he was at
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: least hilarious. You gave me one Chris a metal Christmas song.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've done Steele Panther before. If that's what
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: it is, I don't know. Thank you, sir. Thanks everybody
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. I appreciate it. And you can check
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: out my other podcast as well. By the way, I
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: loser Cast that's out. Both episodes are actually on the
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: loser Cast YouTube channel now as well, which we might
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: not be able to keep them up there. I gotta
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: ask Latent about that because we're probably too offensive. But
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: that's the new comedy podcast that I'm on will renominate
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Losers every week, and then the g Spot Giants podcast
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: probably will begin tomorrow with me and Ben. We're either
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: gonna live stream the Giants Redskins game or we're gonna
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: do a post game show. I don't know what we're
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: gonna do yet, but we'll figure it out. So something
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: like that is starting. He's doing it all so I
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: don't even know, like if the YouTube is set up
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But be on the lookout for that. I
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: guess as well. That's gonna do it. Man, peace out
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: until tomorrow morning.