Latest / Simply Bitcoin / FED INSIDER Caught on HIDDEN Camera! (Fed Sabotages Bitcoin Bull Run?) | EP 1228
Transcript
- 0:00A bombshell video has been circulating on Twitter over the
- 0:04past 24 hours where a Federal Reserve insider was caught
- 0:08saying the unthinkable, confirming what we've been
- 0:11saying on this show for the last couple of weeks.
- 0:14What if we told you that the Federal Reserve was at actively
- 0:17sabotaging everything Donald Trump was doing, including his
- 0:21plan to ignite a Bitcoin bull run?
- 0:24Well, let's play the clip that's blowing up on Twitter that's
- 0:26exposing the Federal Reserve's true intentions.
- 0:31Here we go, Trump. It's a crazy person.
- 0:35It's very clear. I mean, he's a dumb guy.
- 0:37Like CK, Trump and. Like is the feeling.
- 0:39Neutral, of course. OK, seems to be remembered in.
- 0:42History as like. As somebody who held the line,
- 0:46like, like Trump and like somebody who like, helped the
- 0:49economy and Trump was president, he wanted to stimulate the
- 0:51economy, right? But he wouldn't do it.
- 0:54And he started raising interest rates doing the opposite that
- 0:57Trump wanted. So I mean so the feeling.
- 0:59Is this that like we don't want Trump to be there?
- 1:05You see it guys. So this came out from James
- 1:08O'Keefe. If you guys aren't familiar with
- 1:09his new media company, OMG is he does these like, you know,
- 1:14Tinder dates where he, you know, gets people to go on camera and
- 1:18they're usually people that are part of the government,
- 1:21different areas exposing what's going on in Washington, DC.
- 1:25And as you can hear, it sounds like what we've been saying the
- 1:28last couple of weeks. Again, just to recap, we've been
- 1:31all kind of speculating what's going on in Washington.
- 1:34What is Trump doing with the trade war?
- 1:36You know, what are the true intentions here?
- 1:38Is this all a coordinated effort?
- 1:40Is there a war between the Trump administration and the Federal
- 1:43Reserve? We've been hearing a lot of
- 1:44takes coming out of Trump on, you know, and the Fed and the
- 1:48too late Jerome Powell, etcetera, etcetera.
- 1:50And it seems like we have a smoking gun.
- 1:52Anyways, I'm here with my boy Chris Alamo, everyone's favorite
- 1:56neighborly, friendly bitcoiner that also Co hosts here.
- 2:00And of course, one of my favorite Zoomers out there, we
- 2:03have Mitchell Hoddle, head of blockware intelligence at
- 2:06Blockware Solutions. So we got a jam packed show for
- 2:09you guys. I, I really want to dive into
- 2:11this because there's, there's some interesting stuff here.
- 2:14And of course, this will relate to Bitcoin when I wrap this up.
- 2:16Now, Nico's not here today because he's going to El
- 2:19Salvador. He's going to do an awesome
- 2:20interview. So I'm going to get some of
- 2:22Nico's thoughts here. We've been covering this on the
- 2:24show the last couple of weeks. We've been all speculating, is
- 2:27this what's going on? Yes, we've been doing some mind
- 2:29reading, but it seems like there is a battle right now between
- 2:33the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve.
- 2:35And here's Nico's tweets. You guys have been, you've
- 2:38probably seen this on the show a couple of Times Now, but just to
- 2:41recap kind of where we've been standing in our perspective on
- 2:44this, Trump or Nico goes, Trump blocked the Fed from regulating
- 2:47the Bitcoin industry. the Fed wants the CBDC to ensure its
- 2:50survival. So do the Democrats. the Fed
- 2:52also helped come out Kamala's campaign.
- 2:54At this point, is it really a stretch to said to say the Fed
- 2:57is purposely working against Trump's agenda?
- 3:00And look at this, it's April 7th, about a week ago when Nico
- 3:04posted this. And now we have have this clip
- 3:05circulating that seems to be confirming this story exactly.
- 3:10And then of course, we've seen the Donald Trump tweets.
- 3:13I'm sure you guys saw this one, but here's Donald Trump, you
- 3:15know, quote, preemptive cuts and interest rates are being called
- 3:18for by many with energy costs way down, food prices, including
- 3:21Biden's egg disaster substantially lower and most
- 3:24other things trending down. There is virtually no inflation
- 3:28with these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I
- 3:31predicted they would do. There can almost be no inflation
- 3:34but there can be a slow of the economy unless Mr. Too late AKA
- 3:38Jerome Powell, a major loser, lowers interest rates now.
- 3:41Europe has already lowered 7 times.
- 3:43Powell has always been too late except when it came to the
- 3:46election period when he lowered in order to help sleepy Joe
- 3:49Biden later Kamala to get elected.
- 3:51How did that work out? So of course you know Trump,
- 3:54Trump doing what Trump does and Nika does.
- 3:56The Federal Reserve is politically compromised.
- 3:58It's time to end it. And and of course, going back to
- 4:01this JM O'keefe's tweet, you can see here what he posted on, on
- 4:04the timeline. He says we caught a Federal
- 4:06Reserve principal economist on a hidden camera describing Jerome
- 4:10Powell's, quote, legacy as somebody who helped, who held
- 4:13the line against Trump. And he revealed how the Fed
- 4:15under Powell began focusing on wealth inequality and climate
- 4:18change. Looks like the agency may not
- 4:20only set interest rates, but also social policy.
- 4:23So where you know, the, the we're confirming a lot of things
- 4:26we've been saying here on simply Bitcoin.
- 4:29What we always say it's it's pretty easy when you're a bit
- 4:32corner, you can kind of see where the future is going.
- 4:34But we got this tweet this morning from Walter Bloomberg
- 4:38and I do have the follow up article, but I like how he
- 4:40framed this on Twitter a little better because we're seeing this
- 4:44play out in the bond markets, in the gold markets, in the stock
- 4:47market, and of course this morning in the Bitcoin price and
- 4:50yesterday. So Walter Bloomberg tweets Fed
- 4:52independence concerns could lift Bitcoin to record high.
- 4:56And again, I have the actual article here and you can see
- 4:59this on investing.com. It goes Bitcoin price.
- 5:01Standard Chartered maintains its 200K by 2025 forecast.
- 5:04So I'm gonna read it here though this is the bulk of that
- 5:07article. And it goes Bitcoin could rise
- 5:09toward an all time high of concerns over the Federal
- 5:11Reserve's independence persist. Standard Chartered Jeff Kendrick
- 5:14says in a note the cryptocurrency is a hedge
- 5:16against risk to the existing financial system due to its
- 5:19decentralized Ledger. He says this is currently
- 5:22playing out via risk to U.S. Treasury after President Trump
- 5:25suggested he could remove fed Chair Jerome Powell over his
- 5:28desire for interest rates cuts. This yield premium investors are
- 5:32demanding to buy long dated treasuries versus short dated
- 5:35ones has risen sharply and this is benefiting Bitcoin.
- 5:38Kendrick says Bitcoin rise to a six week high of 90,459.
- 5:42I think we, we, he hit around 91, almost 92 this morning.
- 5:46And Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to rise to A200K price
- 5:50by the end of 2024. Now, this is something we've
- 5:56been saying for a long time on the show.
- 5:59We've been speculating, we've obviously been playing the clips
- 6:01for you guys as Bitcoiners. I think it's very interesting
- 6:05that you know that now we're all macro experts and, and we really
- 6:07don't care what the Fed does. We, we, we criticize the Fed in
- 6:11just just at large because they're always going to print
- 6:14more money. But we are seeing there is sort
- 6:16of a power struggle going on in Washington.
- 6:19Now, whether you believe that Trump administration is fighting
- 6:22Jerome Powell or if this is all political theater to essentially
- 6:26weaken the dollar, the point remains the same.
- 6:28We are seeing a transition here and from what I kind of see, we
- 6:32are seeing this trend towards a monetary reset.
- 6:36Now for a lot of people out there, I think the question
- 6:38remains like what is the solution?
- 6:40What is the end goal? Where should I put my my wealth?
- 6:43Where is the safest place for me to park my wealth?
- 6:46A lot of people would say treasuries.
- 6:48As Chris and I talked about last week, treasuries are seemingly
- 6:51not the good move right now. And you're seeing if you guys
- 6:54are watching the gold price, maybe you're just a bitcoiner
- 6:56and you don't watch the gold price, but gold's at all time
- 6:58high. It hit like 3400 this morning.
- 7:01It's ripping, which is essentially telling me that the
- 7:03market is starting to move away from bonds and go into gold.
- 7:08Obviously as a hard money advocate, as someone that's a
- 7:10Bitcoiner, as someone that understands a little bit of
- 7:13monetary history, you understand that in times of uncertainty,
- 7:16people usually go to the most certain assets.
- 7:18And of course gold has historically been that.
- 7:21So we are seeing a lot of crazy stuff going on in the market.
- 7:24And as a Bitcoiner, yes, it's my bias, but we believe the best
- 7:28place for people to park their money is Bitcoin.
- 7:30And again, another historical precedent we have is right when
- 7:34gold starts pumping, Bitcoin will lag it a couple of times
- 7:37and Bitcoin will outperform gold.
- 7:39So we're seeing that the investors are moving into gold
- 7:42and it's only a matter of time and still until they move into
- 7:44Bitcoin. And we're getting this
- 7:46confirmation this morning. Yesterday we reclaimed the 89 K,
- 7:49Today we claim 90K. It's moving up into 91 K.
- 7:53So it looks like the signal around what is going on, the
- 7:56uncertainty is starting to find its way into Bitcoin.
- 7:59And we've been talking about this.
- 8:01Yesterday we talked about it. We were, we were a little
- 8:03bearish on yesterday's show wondering what's going on.
- 8:05No one knows what's going on in the Bitcoin price right now.
- 8:08Everyone's wondering what is happening, when's Bitcoin going
- 8:10to start ripping. But it seems like we did finally
- 8:14get some kind of tipping point here and capital is flowing into
- 8:18Bitcoin. So if we can reclaim this 90K
- 8:20area and we close above 90K today, I think this is some good
- 8:23confirmation that the time of Bitcoin ripping is is upon us.
- 8:27And it does that mean it's going to RIP for the end of the year?
- 8:30I have no idea and I do like this prediction. 200K seems very
- 8:35reasonable by the end of the year.
- 8:37So actually I was going to go to Chris so we can talk bonds, but
- 8:40I'm going to go to Mitchell because you did mention
- 8:41something before the show and I think this might be a good
- 8:44place. I said maybe you can talk about
- 8:45later, but I think it's a good place to really now it you've
- 8:48been on Twitter talking about the end of the four year cycle.
- 8:52Now is this playing into all of the concerns we're seeing in the
- 8:56macro market? So what's your take on this
- 8:58story? What what are you thinking?
- 8:59And also talk about do you think that we are seeing a war between
- 9:04the Fed and the Trump administration?
- 9:07Yeah, thanks for thanks for having me on Opti and Chris, I'm
- 9:09excited to talk. And I actually think my thesis
- 9:13about the four year cycle being over in the current macro
- 9:16environment are somewhat unrelated.
- 9:18And I'll, I'll hit on the first point.
- 9:20The in 2017 Bitcoin went from about 1000 in January to 20,000
- 9:24by December, but it had a really low market cap at the time.
- 9:27And in 2021, we got another massive bull market, but that
- 9:31was on the back of the money supply growing by 50% in the
- 9:34year. And so we don't have either of
- 9:36those dynamics at play right now.
- 9:38I'm still hyper bullish on Bitcoin, but I don't think we
- 9:41get this massive blow off top anymore.
- 9:43But on the other side of that coin, I don't think we get these
- 9:46massive 75% drops during the bear market either the way I
- 9:50view Bitcoin adoption or the Bitcoin price.
- 9:53Rather right now it's a, it's a function of Fiat liquidity and
- 9:57adoption, right? And Fiat liquidity, as we
- 9:59probably all know, it's designed to go up forever.
- 10:02They have all this debt in the system.
- 10:03They have to continuously increase the money supply.
- 10:05And then in terms of adoption, we're seeing that I, I view
- 10:09adoption as kind of a road, right?
- 10:12And the road is widening. So in 2013, you know, you
- 10:15adoption was very limited because there's only like 1
- 10:18exchange. There was Mount Cox in 2017
- 10:21adoption increase because you got more, more exchanges, right?
- 10:24And and so these are paths to draw liquidity from the Fiat
- 10:27system into the Bitcoin world. And 2024 marked a huge turning
- 10:32point when we got the Bitcoin ETFs because it was a straight
- 10:35line for assets in retirement, traditional retirement accounts
- 10:38to get exposure to Bitcoin. And I think as we get more
- 10:42products like that, for example, the MicroStrategy convertible
- 10:45bonds or MSTY kind of a MicroStrategy Bitcoin type play,
- 10:51we're going to see a lot of different products with
- 10:53different degrees of Bitcoin exposure, but also different
- 10:56degrees of of volatility and upside.
- 10:58And so that those products are going to be what allows
- 11:01traditional capital to get into the market.
- 11:04And as more traditional capital gets into the market, we're
- 11:06going to get fewer blow off tops because they're quicker to sell,
- 11:09but we're also going to see less draw downs because they're
- 11:11quicker to buy in. And we're already starting to
- 11:14see this play out. If you look at the Bitcoin price
- 11:17since 2024, we've had steady growth, right?
- 11:20We're up about 50 to 100% on a year over year basis.
- 11:23But our draw downs have been muted.
- 11:25Bitcoin peaked at 110, dropped to 78.
- 11:27That's about a 30% drawdown. I like to say when Bitcoin drops
- 11:31more than 2530%, you're going to see Larry think and the boys
- 11:35back up the truck and unload and buy as much Bitcoin as they can.
- 11:38So I'll pause right there and see if you guys have any any
- 11:41thoughts or any rebuttals. Now I, I think, I think it's
- 11:44something that all of us bitcoiners are, are starting to
- 11:47realize as well. It's like as much as we all, at
- 11:50least historically looking at the data, believe in the four
- 11:53year cycle, it with new data is kind of showing us that Bitcoin
- 11:56does respond to liquidity cycles.
- 11:59And I think we're entering a new round of, you know, liquidity
- 12:03injection into the market and seemingly this is going to end
- 12:06up into Bitcoin. I know a lot of us Bitcoiners
- 12:09have been seeing this M2 money supply or global liquidity, you
- 12:12know, expansion and it's seemingly going parabolic,
- 12:15though there's been some contention about like the the
- 12:18correctness in the correlation of the data because it's not
- 12:21updated as quickly. But if that does play out, it
- 12:24has been following it perfectly. I think it's safe to say that
- 12:27Bitcoin is going to start to explode based on all of the
- 12:30global global liquidity and we all know like the Fed is going
- 12:34to eventually turn on the money money printer.
- 12:36So I, I do like this theory of Bitcoin.
- 12:39The four year cycle might be dead.
- 12:41I'm still kind of a four year cycle maxi until proven
- 12:44otherwise. I'm kind of like, I think the
- 12:46four year cycle is working out, but with new data is kind of
- 12:48showing me we might be entering this this new paradigm here and
- 12:52it's going to be caused because of global liquidity and not so
- 12:54much just, you know, 210,000 blocks.
- 12:57So it is an interesting theory that I think a lot of us
- 12:59Bitcoiners are playing with so. And I'll caveat it too, I, I, I
- 13:03think we, the price ends up higher this year.
- 13:05We started year around 90K. I'm still convinced we're going
- 13:08to end up somewhere between 1:50 and 2:50 by the end of the year.
- 13:12And for one of the reasons you mentioned is, is this global
- 13:15liquidity is starting to rise. And part of that is the dollar's
- 13:17getting weakened, which I think is by design.
- 13:20And, and this kind of brings us back to the, the Trump versus
- 13:22Powell argument, right? I think it's an interesting
- 13:25conversation. I think clearly they're butting
- 13:27heads. I think Powell cares more about
- 13:29his personal legacy, getting rid of those, the money printer
- 13:32gober memes, because that's all he's going to be known for
- 13:35unless, unless something changes, right?
- 13:38And so if he cuts rates, like that's going to be even more of
- 13:40the case. So I think he's kind of holding
- 13:41steady for that reason. But more importantly, I don't
- 13:44think what Powell does matters as much as what the Treasury
- 13:47does. And long term interest rates and
- 13:50this whole tariff back and forth, like nobody knows exactly
- 13:53what's going to happen. A huge amount of uncertainty in
- 13:57the market. I think that move by Trump and
- 13:59Scott Besson was they were hoping to drive some demand for
- 14:02long term treasuries, but instead what happened is all the
- 14:05demand went to gold and we're starting to see some of that
- 14:07trickle into Bitcoin. So I think it's a really
- 14:09telltale sign of where the the geopolitical macroeconomic state
- 14:14is at considering this moment of uncertainty.
- 14:17It's not people aren't buying treasuries, which is a quote of
- 14:19quote, risk free rate. Instead they're buying hard
- 14:21money that's neutral and not associated with U.S. government.
- 14:24Yeah, totally, Mitchell. And I think that's the signal
- 14:26here that Bitcoiners, we've been talking about this for a long
- 14:29time, that yeah, like, of course, historically the status
- 14:33quo is like, if you want a safe bet, you go into treasuries.
- 14:36Now we're seeing people basically skip the treasuries.
- 14:38They're like, hey, look, I don't know if it's Armageddon here or
- 14:42the apocalypse or whatever, but they're like, I'm going straight
- 14:44to gold. And, and we're seeing this
- 14:46respond in the in the gold price.
- 14:48It's going nuclear right now. And who knows how much longer it
- 14:51could go up. Is there going to be a
- 14:52correction blow off top, etcetera, or this is the blow
- 14:55off top? But it looks like people are
- 14:57skipping treasuries and going into gold and it's really
- 15:00putting into, you know, into frame.
- 15:03Like was what Trump did with the trade wars planned?
- 15:06Or is their response to cut off the trade, the tariffs, a
- 15:10response to the bond markets blowing up and people skipping
- 15:12it and going into gold. It all remains the same and
- 15:15points the same thing to us bitcoiners.
- 15:17Like there's mass uncertainty in the markets and when you find
- 15:20uncertainty in the markets, you want to go to the hardest asset.
- 15:23And This is why we're bitcoiners.
- 15:24Once you understand the 21 million hard cap, censorship
- 15:27resistant permission list, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
- 15:29We talk about it all the time. You realize there it's it's a
- 15:32one way St. Once you understand Bitcoin,
- 15:33you're like, I don't want anything else.
- 15:35Like I'm a bitcoiner. That's all I want to hold.
- 15:37I'm going all in on Bitcoin and it's only a matter of time until
- 15:40everyone wakes up to the to the game that we're playing.
- 15:43We're literally seeing like economic musical chairs right
- 15:46now and eventually everyone ends up at the one single chair that
- 15:50is Bitcoin, like all the bitcoiners selling their chairs
- 15:52for one chair to stack more Bitcoin.
- 15:54Anyway, Anyway, Chris, what's your thoughts on that clip and
- 15:58maybe the war between Trump and Powell and, or if you want to
- 16:02touch on it, what what Mitchell was saying about global
- 16:04liquidity. So what?
- 16:06What are you thinking here, Chris?
- 16:08Yeah, No, I, I want to touch on, I think I've been saying, I
- 16:11think I'd said this last week or a couple weeks ago that
- 16:13basically there's like a war obviously between Powell and
- 16:15Trump. We saw this boiling over even
- 16:17before in the lame duck period between Election Day and
- 16:20inauguration, that Trump was basically like, I know interest
- 16:22rates better than Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell's like, I'm not
- 16:25going to step down even if Trump, quote, UN quote, fires
- 16:27me. He put me in, I'm going to
- 16:28finish the end of my term. So basically they're going head
- 16:30to Like, I need the economy, you know, to come down in the short
- 16:35to medium term because right now the US government needs to
- 16:38service $2 trillion of U.S. debt by the end of April.
- 16:42I don't know how much of it they've serviced already.
- 16:44And then they need to service about 10 trillion by the end of
- 16:462025 S the end of this year. So basically Trump's like, hey,
- 16:50if pal's not going to bring interest rates down to help us
- 16:52out and the Treasury and to balance the budget by, you know,
- 16:55expensing debt at lower interest rates, then I'm going to help
- 16:58tank the economy. We kind of saw a little bit of
- 16:59that with like withdrawing liquidity in the sense of DOGE.
- 17:03I know a lot of people are saying they don't know if Elon
- 17:05Musk and his team at doge were doing enough.
- 17:07I know Elon Musk, he's kind of stepped away or will be stepping
- 17:10away in the coming weeks, but it's basically this back and
- 17:12forth that Trump's like, hey, I need lower interest rates in
- 17:15order to finance this trillions, literally trillions with AT of
- 17:18debt. And so him and Powell are kind
- 17:20of going back and forth and he's like basically Powell's stuck
- 17:23between a rock and a hard place. I think Powell, you know, the
- 17:25Federal Reserve's not federal and it's, there's no reserves,
- 17:28you know, at the same time, like even though it's elected
- 17:31position by the president, basically they report to the
- 17:33member banks and then those member banks are kind of part of
- 17:36like the banking system. And when interest rates are low,
- 17:38it's actually really bad to be a bank in that time.
- 17:41It's good if you're an investment bank when you're
- 17:42investing in stocks and other assets, Bitcoin, gold, stocks,
- 17:46things like that. But it's a bad time to be a bank
- 17:48because banks make money off lending money.
- 17:50They don't make money off deposits.
- 17:52Those are actually liabilities to bank.
- 17:53They're an asset for you. It's a liability for the bank.
- 17:56They make money off lending money.
- 17:57So when interest rates are super low, it's hard to make money on
- 18:01the loans that you're giving out because it's low interest rates,
- 18:03so low amount of interest that they're earning on the deposits
- 18:06or the cash or the cash equivalents that they have on
- 18:08hand. So I think that's kind of like,
- 18:10you know, while Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve always
- 18:12says, oh, we want low inflation and we want like, you know,
- 18:14steady jobs, Like we don't want people to lose their jobs and
- 18:17stuff like that. They have that dual mandate of
- 18:19like employment as well as interest as well as inflation.
- 18:23Obviously, we've seen inflation come down.
- 18:25It's still higher than what it was or what it's been running
- 18:27historically. And, you know, I think the job
- 18:29numbers are better, but weakening less than what they
- 18:33are. We're seeing a lot of signs of
- 18:34like, I know car loans, a lot of people are starting to default
- 18:38on those credit card rates or, you know, the debt of consumer
- 18:41debt on credit cards is at basically all time highs last
- 18:44time I checked. So basically the everyday
- 18:46consumer in Main Street is being crushed right now.
- 18:49I know Wall Street's crying just because the stock market went
- 18:51down, you know, a couple thousand points on the debt now
- 18:53and like bitcoins been down for in kind of a little bit of a
- 18:56slump these last couple months. Obviously we've seen gold
- 18:58ripping higher. You know, maybe we're simply
- 19:00macro or simply gold at this point.
- 19:01But normally when gold goes first, all the gold people, the
- 19:05Peter shifts, all these guys come out of the woodworks and
- 19:07say, I told you Bitcoins down or only up this amount, gold's up
- 19:11record highs, blah blah, blah, blah, blah.
- 19:12And then like 6 months from now, bitcoins going to RIP roar pass
- 19:15its all time high be way higher historically.
- 19:18And then the gold guys will either be down or flat and then
- 19:21they'll be like, well, it's up. You know, I can pick any time
- 19:24period. And then they, they, they want
- 19:26to pick their time now. But when the time comes on
- 19:28Bitcoin roots roars, you know, they'll be the ones to counter
- 19:31last point, I'll say 200K by conference day is still in play.
- 19:35What they'll call this back in 2021.
- 19:37We don't know what conference or what year or when, but 200K by
- 19:40conference day is still in play. Yeah, that's I almost forgot
- 19:45about that meme. Yeah, 200K by conference day.
- 19:48Who knows which conference, but one of these conferences will
- 19:50get 200 K. Oh man, that's good.
- 19:52All right guys, we have a jam packed shelf for you guys.
- 19:55But before I go on, I do want to shout out Vault dweller for the
- 19:58$2.00 super chat and he says bought my first wallet.
- 20:01Self custody. Here I come.
- 20:03This is the way. Good job ball dweller love to
- 20:06hear it. This is the this is the whole
- 20:08game that you need to play. Do not leave your Bitcoin on
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- 20:14Now on that note, before I move on, I do want to remind you guys
- 20:17to smash the like button smash the subscriber button and of
- 20:20course comment on the video. Let us know what you think and
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- 20:49This is the best way to ensure you never get rug pulled.
- 20:52This is the whole name of the game guys.
- 20:53We say it all the time. The revolution is self custody.
- 20:56Yes, getting Bitcoin exposure is great, but you need to take that
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- 21:17this simply Bitcoin show and you're all macro and you're
- 21:20concerned about treasuries and gold price and you missed out on
- 21:24this run up and you're kind of interested in Bitcoin, but you
- 21:28have a lot of feel on the side. Make sure you get in touch with
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- 23:34So ball dweller, you just got a, you know, a hardware wallet.
- 23:38Make sure you don't leave your seed phrase on a piece of paper.
- 23:40All right, we're over here on Clark Moody's dashboard, of
- 23:42course, going over the Bitcoin numbers and the current Bitcoin
- 23:45price is $90,730. I'm not going to lie guys, this
- 23:4990K securing feels really good right now.
- 23:52I know we've been talking about the Bitcoin price and what's
- 23:54going on, but 90K felt better this morning.
- 23:57You know 91 K felt really good this morning for some reason,
- 24:00even though it's lower. What is it like 20% off all time
- 24:03high or 10 percent, 15% off Now it feels good.
- 24:06I'm I'm not going to lie it feels good.
- 24:08Anyways, the SAT per dollar AKA how much your Bitcoin you can
- 24:10buy for a single dollar AKA how much the dollar is worth in
- 24:12Bitcoin is currently at 1102 SAT per dollar.
- 24:16The current block height is 893,533 and the market cap we
- 24:21are inching back up to $2 trillion market cap.
- 24:24We are currently at one point $8 trillion and the Bitcoin versus
- 24:27gold market cap is currently at 7.39%.
- 24:31We have a long way to go in the hard money game and the total
- 24:34percentage of Bitcoin that will ever be issued is currently at
- 24:3694.54%, roughly 19.85 million Bitcoin into circulation and the
- 24:42realized monetary inflation taking Fiat currencies to
- 24:45school, it's currently at .84%. You know, even though the feds
- 24:48trying to get inflation to 2%, Bitcoin will still be the
- 24:51hardest money in the world. All right, so this next little
- 24:53bit guys, I want to give a huge shout out to TFTC.
- 24:56Shouts out to Marty over there. He's doing great work.
- 24:58He clipped this video of Scott Besson.
- 25:01Now, I'm not going to go full fed macro on you guys again,
- 25:04this is not what this clip is about, but if you can read it
- 25:07here and for the audio listeners, Scott Besson calls
- 25:10for a nationwide financial literacy and that everyone
- 25:13should care about financial literacy.
- 25:15And this is something that I think a lot of us Bitcoiners
- 25:18either naively fell into before a bitcoiner, I wasn't
- 25:22financially literate. Now, as a Bitcoiner, everything
- 25:25just makes that much more sense. So he's talking probably more on
- 25:29like a macroscope, like understand treasuries and what
- 25:32the Fed does, etcetera, etcetera.
- 25:33But we're going to simplify all of this and just tell you guys
- 25:36that Bitcoin is the fastest and best way to financial literacy.
- 25:41But let's just hear this clip and then I'll, you know, put the
- 25:43little Bitcoin spin on it. Everyone should care about
- 25:47financial literacy. Whether you are a student with a
- 25:50summer job or a part time job during school, whether you're in
- 25:55college, whether you're starting your career or whether you are
- 25:59at the end of your career. Making good financial choices
- 26:03creates economic security. And look it, it's fun.
- 26:08You you learn about the markets, you learn how to properly
- 26:14allocate resources, and there's a big payoff the over the long
- 26:19term for something you. This is the key take away that
- 26:25all of us bitcoiners try to get across.
- 26:28You need to understand money. He didn't go so far as say
- 26:31understand money, but you know, good capital allocation.
- 26:35This is how you live a good life.
- 26:37Yes, if you go into all the weeds and you try to understand
- 26:40the complexities of Tradfly, you may get confused.
- 26:43You know, even sometimes Chris and I will get on the show and
- 26:45we're like talking about bond yields and like, wait, exactly
- 26:48how does this work? We would argue that is by
- 26:50design. And the best capital allocation
- 26:52tool you can have is Bitcoin. And this leads me to this other
- 26:56great article from TFTC. And, and this is going to just
- 26:59boil down, I think everything going on in the markets.
- 27:02I've been saying this for a long time on the show that the
- 27:05information asymmetry arbitrage that you have as a Bitcoiner
- 27:09just hasn't fully been spread out across the the population.
- 27:14There's some people that understand Bitcoin, you know, I
- 27:16would argue there's some Bitcoiners that understand
- 27:18Bitcoin better than others, especially if you're like a shit
- 27:21coin gambler, then you probably don't understand it.
- 27:24But the point remains the same. Few people truly understand
- 27:27what's going on. And once you look through the
- 27:28world through this Bitcoin lens, all of the trad fly nonsense
- 27:32starts to make sense and you can start to wrap your head around
- 27:35what's going on. When you have the first
- 27:36principles of Bitcoin, the fundamental understanding of
- 27:38Bitcoin, you can look at the world and start to parse the
- 27:41information and project where the future is going, where you
- 27:45know where the puck is going, so to speak.
- 27:47So I'm not going to read this whole article here, but I highly
- 27:50suggest you do. It is pretty short.
- 27:51I'm just going to pinpoint what I think might be playing out in
- 27:54the markets. And I think this is the pure
- 27:57signal here. So starting off with Marty
- 27:59Bent's tweet, he goes, the need for a neutral hard asset that is
- 28:02fine-tuned for the digital age has never been clear.
- 28:05But this information is not evenly distributed at the
- 28:08moment. If you hold Bitcoin, you are
- 28:10arbitraging this information asymmetry.
- 28:13And this first part is kind of talking about that the
- 28:15information and the understanding around Bitcoin
- 28:18isn't fully spread out in the in the public consciousness yet,
- 28:21though it is getting there. And we are seeing signals that
- 28:24they are at the high positions. Like, I don't think you can be
- 28:27naive anymore and say that like the Jamie Diamonds of the world
- 28:30don't understand what Bitcoin or Larry Fink doesn't understand
- 28:32Bitcoin enough. I, our Christine Lagarde doesn't
- 28:35understand Bitcoin. I think they fully understand
- 28:37what is at stake. And This is why you're seeing
- 28:40all of their public positioning Now.
- 28:42What I really want to hit on, and I think this is the signal.
- 28:46We talked about it earlier. Is there a war between Trump and
- 28:49Powell? You know, are they fighting over
- 28:51interest rates to refinance a trillion dollars of debt that
- 28:55the US holds? Or is there on the other side,
- 28:58some kind of theatre K fab playing out where, you know,
- 29:01they're making all this scene, but the true playbook is
- 29:03devaluing the dollar, making weakening the dollar so that
- 29:07they can continue their position.
- 29:09And it's very strange because even though they print more
- 29:11money, yes, your purchasing power goes down, which is a bad
- 29:14thing. But in the current state of the
- 29:16world, they need a weaker dollar to maintain the dominance that
- 29:19they have. Now here is, I think, the main
- 29:21signal of this. And then of course, I'll put the
- 29:23Bitcoin spin on it always. So the headline here or the
- 29:27segment here is the coordinated currency devaluation playbook,
- 29:30how governments will tackle debt.
- 29:32Now this is, I think what is playing out.
- 29:34This is my latest, latest ideas. Like it's not just for me, but
- 29:39just from everything I'm seeing, this seems to make the most
- 29:41sense. And here's a tweet here or a
- 29:43quote and goes, if everyone devalues at the same pace, if
- 29:47everyone devalues their currencies at the same pace, in
- 29:50other words, if the British pound, the US dollar, the euro,
- 29:52the yen, all devalue at the same pace, the paper money cross
- 29:56rates don't change particularly, but everybody inflates against
- 30:00gold. And looking at the markets, you
- 30:02are maybe seeing this play out. Gold's going all time high right
- 30:05now. We're seeing that the US dollar
- 30:08is weakening against the Swiss franc.
- 30:09We're seeing it weaken against the Japanese yen.
- 30:12And it's just becoming very interesting that maybe this is
- 30:16the playbook we're seeing out. While everyone is distracted by
- 30:19the stock market dropping, by bond yields going up.
- 30:22This may be the true play that we are just seeing the
- 30:25government's devalue their currencies on on a mass level.
- 30:29So everyone's basically equal. Yes, you're losing purchasing
- 30:32power against gold or hard money.
- 30:34But if everyone devalues their currency, then nothing really
- 30:37changes on the global order. They're just able to easily pay
- 30:40off their debt. And we all know that this is one
- 30:42of the main goals that Trump is trying to do.
- 30:44So here to add a little more goes.
- 30:46This coordinated devaluation creates a fascinating dynamic
- 30:49where private sector innovation is racing ahead of regulatory
- 30:52responses. Bitcoin and stable coins
- 30:54represent the market's attempt to create alternatives to
- 30:57government controlled currencies.
- 30:58What's particularly interesting is how is observation about
- 31:01current investor positioning. Markets have rapidly shifted to
- 31:05extreme defensive allocations, with only 3.5% of occasions
- 31:09since 1978 showing more defensive positioning than
- 31:12today. This suggests we could see a
- 31:14signal significant bounce before any major crisis, creating
- 31:17opportunities for those who understand the long term
- 31:20devaluation playbook. Now of course, we would argue
- 31:24one of the main opportunities here and that one that most
- 31:27people miss and relegate to the corners is Bitcoin.
- 31:30Now Stack Hodler did a great tweet here.
- 31:33Again, I'm not going to read the whole thing, just kind of the
- 31:34bulk of it. And and I think looking at what
- 31:38gold's doing, looking at what bitcoins doing, looking at what
- 31:40we think is going to happen to the Bitcoin price following this
- 31:43gold run up is that Bitcoin is also going to RIP.
- 31:46So reading this a little bit, Stack Hodler goes, you need to
- 31:49understand why Bitcoin and gold are both up roughly 70% in the
- 31:52past fourteen months and why the NASDAQ is flat.
- 31:55Despite the unfolding AI and robotic revolution, the dollar
- 31:59is crashing and long term U.S. Treasuries continue to lose
- 32:02value. The writing has been on the wall
- 32:04since twenty 20s and or 20 20 and meme stocks and shit coins
- 32:07were a distraction. Bitcoin and gold hard money
- 32:10without counterparty risk has been the most important
- 32:13investment thesis to understand this decade.
- 32:15The global monetary order is rapidly changing and the status
- 32:19quo is dead. There's still time to allocate
- 32:22the hard money and protect your capital.
- 32:23And if you're looking at all the charts, we've been trying to
- 32:26become, you know, macro experts on on the quick here, Everything
- 32:30is heading towards the direction that we've been saying people
- 32:32are moving towards hard money. And I know the decoupling meme
- 32:36seems to be, you know, like The funny thing to dump on right
- 32:39now. But we seem to have seen the re
- 32:41decoupling play out. I remember on the, you know, the
- 32:43Friday before the tariff, the tariff war announcement happened
- 32:46or after the tariff war happened, the markets melted
- 32:50down and Bitcoin was able to decouple a little bit.
- 32:52And then on Monday it recoupled. Well, we saw yesterday something
- 32:56similar is going on. It seems like the psychology
- 32:59around investors is starting to wrap their head around this idea
- 33:02that hey, maybe I don't want equities, maybe I don't want
- 33:06treasuries. Maybe the only smart move is to
- 33:09stack some Bitcoin. And here we have Tyler Wieco,
- 33:11boss, of course, Co founder of Gemini.
- 33:13He goes the Bitcoin decoupling from trad flies upon us and he's
- 33:16quote tweeting watcher guru basically saying one point, $5
- 33:19trillion were wiped out of the US stock market today or
- 33:22yesterday and Bitcoin was plus three.
- 33:26Bitcoin was basically one of the only green things.
- 33:28It was Bitcoin and gold and anything related to Bitcoin that
- 33:31was pumping. So we are seeing that the ace of
- 33:34the asymmetric information arbitrage is starting to spread
- 33:38around the world and people are starting to look at Bitcoin as
- 33:41an actual thing to invest in. And of course for you guys here,
- 33:45most of you are Bitcoiners, but if you happen to come into the
- 33:47show and you're like, what are these Bitcoin is talking about?
- 33:50Do they even understand what's going on?
- 33:52Well, you don't have to take it from us.
- 33:53The market is signaling what we've been saying.
- 33:56It is proving our hypothesis, our thesis here, that in the
- 34:00face of everything going on, Bitcoin will start ripping and
- 34:03people need a neutral political money or a neutral political
- 34:07asset because we're seeing that every government is on the verge
- 34:11of devaluing their currencies. And if you're just an average
- 34:14person trying to save in dollars, you're going to get
- 34:15absolutely wrecked. And even further, if you're a
- 34:17wealthy person saving in in stocks and equities, you're
- 34:21seemingly going to get wrecked. And no one wants to go into
- 34:24treasuries. So you have two choices.
- 34:26It's buy gold or buy Bitcoin. And we all know that Bitcoin is
- 34:30digital gold mean Bitcoin is the superior way to transact in the
- 34:34digital age. Anyways, I've been ranting long
- 34:36enough. Let me go to Chris.
- 34:38I'll go to Chris first. What's your thoughts on on this
- 34:40whole little spew I had here? Bitcoins going up, that's what I
- 34:44think it needs. I guess.
- 34:47What else do you want me to add? Just on like I thought you did a
- 34:49good job with covering pretty much everything was really
- 34:51broad. OK.
- 34:52All right. Well, hey, you know, thank you.
- 34:54Thank you. Well, you know, when I get to
- 34:55stump Chris on the show, the 45 IQ Bitcoiner can stump Chris.
- 34:58I'll take it. I'll take it.
- 35:00So I'll pass it over to Mitch. Mitch, you, you are very
- 35:02interested in this idea of the Trump versus Powell.
- 35:06What's your thoughts on this idea?
- 35:07Yeah, that maybe we're seeing a planned demolition in the
- 35:10economy to devalue currencies globally and This is why we're
- 35:14seeing moves go into hard assets.
- 35:16Yeah, I think that's spot on. Opti.
- 35:19It basically the way I view the forex market is it's just a
- 35:23giant pissing match between countries to see who can devalue
- 35:25their currency the fastest, right.
- 35:27And if you look at Trump's goals, his stated goals, which
- 35:31is to reassure manufacturing the United States and to refinance
- 35:34the debt, he needs a weaker dollar to do that.
- 35:37And since Trump was inaugurated, we've seen the the DXY, the
- 35:40dollar currency index go from around one O 8 down to about 99
- 35:44now. So that's a 10% drop in the
- 35:46dollar. So I think he's doing exactly
- 35:49what he needs to do in order to to push the economy in the way
- 35:52they see fit. And we're seeing gold
- 35:55specifically, but I think we'll start to see Bitcoin respond
- 35:58accordingly. Yeah, totally.
- 36:00And I I think we are seeing that especially today with the
- 36:03Bitcoin price, you know, starting to pump yesterday we
- 36:06saw a pump today we're seeing a kind of pump obviously as a
- 36:09Bitcoin and we're like what it went up like two $3000 like what
- 36:12kind of bump is this? What is the pump for ants?
- 36:15I think what I've been saying the last couple weeks and I, I,
- 36:19I was being a little, you know, bullish and, and optimistic
- 36:22about what we're seeing in the Bitcoin price, because a lot of
- 36:24people are like, man, you know, like bitcoins not ripping.
- 36:28It's only going sideways or it dumped on that bloody Monday And
- 36:32but it wasn't the end of the world and it's actually holding
- 36:34out up like very, very strong in the face of all these global
- 36:37macroeconomic factors. And I think seeing Bitcoin start
- 36:41to RIP right now, I think that's like the interesting signal here
- 36:45in the interesting angle, like yes, gold ripping and it and
- 36:47it's kind of, you know, it's doing a really good run right
- 36:50now. But the fact Bitcoin held up
- 36:51really strong compared to the last time Bitcoin had a
- 36:54macroeconomic catastrophe. I think that's the signal now
- 36:58we're seeing it run like we're not saying it's going to run to
- 37:01200 K and just like constant green candles for the rest of
- 37:04the year. But I think we might be seeing,
- 37:06I don't know if it's going to be this month.
- 37:07I know we had the Josh Mandel meme.
- 37:09He's like by the end of what was at the end of March, we're going
- 37:11to hit 100K and then he's like, no, it's going to be April.
- 37:14Like, I don't know about all that because we're at the end of
- 37:17April, but I think May might be a good month in terms of price,
- 37:21you know, reaction upwards and then we'll probably kind of go
- 37:25sideways is kind of what I'm feeling.
- 37:26And then end of the year we'll get like a crazy pump.
- 37:28But who knows it all. It all remains the same.
- 37:31Just stack as much Bitcoin as possible in the face of all of
- 37:34this crazy complexities. You just got to keep it simple,
- 37:37stupid. And I'm the stupid one here.
- 37:39You just buy Bitcoin, continue to save in Bitcoin and all of
- 37:42this stuff doesn't matter. Yes, you can learn like lean
- 37:45into it, try to understand what's going on in the global
- 37:47markets, but as long as you're stacking Bitcoin, this is all
- 37:50essentially noise. But we understand most people
- 37:52try to fight people. They look at these signals and
- 37:55they try to understand the markets.
- 37:56They look at the tea leaves that Jerome Powell was sending out
- 37:58there and they're like, all right, where do I position
- 38:00myself? And those Bitcoiners are just
- 38:02like kicking back, Like, bro, just buy Bitcoin.
- 38:04Like it's really not that hard. But I mean, can can we blame
- 38:08them? Like we, we look like kids here
- 38:10on the shows. Like what do these kids
- 38:11understand about global macro markets?
- 38:13And we're like, hey, man, you know, maybe you're right, but it
- 38:16looks like the Bitcoin returns are better than anything you're
- 38:18getting on Wall Street, anything you're getting with equity.
- 38:21So maybe you should listen to the kids over here in the
- 38:23corner. But you know, it is what it is.
- 38:26Right. If you're one of these
- 38:28traditional investors, you have to be paying attention somewhat
- 38:31and seriously consider what it means to have a diversified
- 38:34portfolio because for the past few decades, the idea is have
- 38:38stocks and have bonds and there's going to be an inverted
- 38:41relationship. But over the past month, we've
- 38:43seen one of the least uncertain times since I've been alive and
- 38:47paying attention to markets in both stocks and bonds have gone
- 38:51down. So it kind of takes, you know,
- 38:53traditional, the status quo of investing and it throws it right
- 38:57out the window. And to see Bitcoin perform well
- 39:00during this period, if you're a traditional investor, you have
- 39:02to be paying attention to that. Otherwise you're you're going to
- 39:04get kicked to the curb eventually.
- 39:07Yeah, I saw, I think it was Pomp.
- 39:09Pomp was on like CNBC and he he had this like quote that I that
- 39:14I think really, yeah, he was on CNBC with Joe Kernan and he had
- 39:17this quote that I think really wraps up or sums up everything
- 39:21that we say as like the younger generation, if you're like, you
- 39:24know, under 35 or whatever. And he essentially said like the
- 39:276040 traditional portfolio that, you know, your parents or like
- 39:31your uncle would tell you is the best way to allocate your, your
- 39:35investments. It just doesn't work for us
- 39:37anymore. It's, it's an obsolete
- 39:38investment portfolio breakdown. And anyone that is really tapped
- 39:43in and tuned into what's going on understands that like, all
- 39:46you need to do is buy Bitcoin, like go 100% of Bitcoin 6040
- 39:50portfolio doesn't work anymore. And even if you want to be a
- 39:53little conservative about it, you could kind of follow the
- 39:56Black Rock playbook and like, hey, you know, you could do your
- 39:596040 portfolio with like 95% of your portfolio, but 5% at least
- 40:03should be in Bitcoin. And it's just in it's, it's
- 40:06really, really insane or incredible to me that most
- 40:09people aren't following these strategies yet when I think it's
- 40:12been proven by now, Bitcoin is the best.
- 40:14But rather, as I would say, Bitcoin is the only thing to be
- 40:16investing in. Like yes, if you want to buy
- 40:19real estate for like a house or something, then by all means do
- 40:22it. You know, yes, if you want to
- 40:24hold like a physical gold bar, then you could do that.
- 40:27But you should be all in on Bitcoin if you're 35 and under.
- 40:30This is not financial advice, but you should be all in on
- 40:33Bitcoin. Opti the 6040 is not dead.
- 40:36I'm 60% Bitcoin, 40% sats. Let's.
- 40:39Go, this is the way. This is the way.
- 40:42All right, guys, so let's get into the news because I do have
- 40:45two different news stories and the first one is just kind of an
- 40:48update. And the second one is about the
- 40:50ECB. And you guys know I love the ECB
- 40:53and everything coming out of the EU.
- 40:55So this is going to be an interesting take on what's going
- 40:57on in in the European Union in regards to stable coins in
- 41:02Bitcoin and of course their reaction to what Trump is doing.
- 41:05So more, more signal coming out that the EU is just absolutely
- 41:10wrecking themselves. But hey, what?
- 41:11We'll cover all that right now. I want to give a shout out to
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- 43:29simply all caps for 5% off. This is the best way to store
- 43:34your Bitcoin. All right, guys, so and also I'm
- 43:38I'm seeing the chat during the transition one guys, I'm I'm not
- 43:42I'm not you know, I'm not boomer shaming here.
- 43:44I'm I'm just trying to get this message across to the younger
- 43:47generation that hey, if you are on the young end of the
- 43:50spectrum, you should have as much Bitcoin as possible.
- 43:54Everyone older than me at 35 plus that's all in on Bitcoin.
- 43:57We love you guys. Whenever I talk about boomers,
- 44:00I'm not talking about you guys, OK, I, I get literally I get
- 44:03shit all the time in public like you always shit on boomers like
- 44:06there's some of us that are good.
- 44:07I know I know it's called a generalization.
- 44:09I love you guys in the chat. OK, I love you.
- 44:10I love you and then also I'm getting roasted for my my
- 44:14ex-girlfriend, Christine Lagarde.
- 44:15Well, we're going to touch on that.
- 44:16We're going to touch on that in a little bit.
- 44:17So first update for everyone out there that's coming out from you
- 44:21know, sec.gov. So Paul Atkins was sworn in as
- 44:25the SEC chairman. Now I know you guys saw what was
- 44:28it a week ago? Me and Nico, I was rather
- 44:30trolling Nico about the fact that Gary Gensler came out as a
- 44:33Bitcoin maxi and he's like bro, he was bad for the industry and
- 44:37I'm like whatever I was right I'm vindicated.
- 44:39Well, why am I bringing this up is because Paul Atkins being
- 44:43sworn in as SEC chairman. It it, it's almost starting to
- 44:46feel like what Bitcoiners were thinking when Garen Gensler got
- 44:49in. It's like, OK, we have a pro
- 44:50crypto, you know, SEC chairman, this is going to be good.
- 44:53Well, Paul Atkins is also very pro crypto at this point.
- 44:57You know, maybe we got to get him to be a pro Bitcoiner.
- 45:00But it looks like what we've been seeing for a while and this
- 45:04new Trump administration is sort of playing out that we're going
- 45:07to see a more favorable regulate regulatory environment for
- 45:10Bitcoin. And I think it's starts with
- 45:12Paul Atkins being confirmed as the SEC chair.
- 45:16And so I'm not going to read the whole article here, but there is
- 45:19a few kind of interesting tidbits here.
- 45:21He is more pro crypto per SE, but you know, it it they can't
- 45:27be perfect, I guess. So he will go here.
- 45:30His his confirmation was reportedly delayed due to
- 45:33several financial disclosures that he needed to file as a
- 45:36result of marrying into a billionaire family.
- 45:39Absolute Chad mood, I'm not going to lie.
- 45:42Some of these financial disclosures reportedly included
- 45:44up to $6 million worth of crypto related investments, including
- 45:49crypto custody platform Anchorage Digital and blockchain
- 45:52tokenization platform securitize.
- 45:55So that's probably, you know, as much information as we need,
- 45:58though, remember that Anchorage Digital is one of Blackrock's
- 46:03new custody partners. So you know, you can read into
- 46:07that all you want, but this guy is a lot more pro crypto
- 46:12friendly seemingly than Gary Gensler.
- 46:14We'll see what actually plays out in the SEC and what this
- 46:17means for our industry. But I think tentatively this is
- 46:20this is a good thing. So here's a second story or
- 46:23actually you guys, guys, you want to jump in on this?
- 46:25You have any thoughts on Paul Atkins before I break down this
- 46:27article because I might, I might have to read a little bit here.
- 46:29So you got you got to talk on this.
- 46:32Yeah, I'll say that just because the SEC chairman may be pro
- 46:36crypto doesn't necessarily present a bull case for non
- 46:39Bitcoin cryptos because we we already saw the all coin scene
- 46:44kind of it had it had a nice run up when Trump was firstly
- 46:48inaugurated back in November, December.
- 46:50But since then and and really over the past 2 1/2 years since
- 46:54the FTX collapse, the story has been Bitcoin dominance.
- 46:57Bitcoin dominance at the the 2022 lows was around 40% and now
- 47:01it's upwards of 6065%. And so these, all these other
- 47:05cryptos, it, it's important for them who the SEC chair is
- 47:08because they are securities, unlike Bitcoin which is a
- 47:11commodity. There was a, there was a fair
- 47:13issuance. It's a finite supply.
- 47:15All these other cryptos had pre mined tokens.
- 47:17You know, Vitalik is ruthlessly dumping on the ETH holders
- 47:21constantly. ETH BTC is at 5 year lows.
- 47:24So just don't don't confuse. This seemingly positive news is
- 47:27actually a long term bull case for altcoins.
- 47:31Love it all right, that was a that was a great take Good good
- 47:34job Mitch. All right now going into this
- 47:36article and I think this might be the more interesting story
- 47:39coming out today. You guys know I've I've been
- 47:44very critical of stable coins just because I'm I'm like a
- 47:46bitcoiner. I, I want to see people jump to
- 47:48Bitcoin and not necessarily jump into a dollar denominated stable
- 47:53coin that is essentially continuing to push, you know,
- 47:56the Fiat system and, and I, you know, I've gotten heat on the
- 47:59show and some people agree with me, some don't.
- 48:01I understand the argument that like third world countries are
- 48:04going into stable coin because they have no Fiat, they have no
- 48:07savings and it's, you know, baby steps towards Bitcoin.
- 48:10I, I totally understand that. Now that's not what this article
- 48:13is about, but we are starting to see a growing trend and we've
- 48:18been covering it on the show for a while.
- 48:19While the US goes seemingly more pro Bitcoin, we're seeing the
- 48:24European Union do whatever they can to stop Bitcoin or even stop
- 48:28stable coins and usher in their CBDC system.
- 48:31Now Politico dropped this article this morning and this is
- 48:34exactly what they are saying, though there is part of this
- 48:38kind of going into what our boy Mark Goodwin would be saying of,
- 48:40you know, the Bitcoin dollar system.
- 48:42So a lot of interesting stuff. I will read some of this
- 48:45actually, I might read more than I'd want to, but there's a lot
- 48:48of good stuff in here. So this is coming from Politico
- 48:50and it goes Commission livid as ECB warns of crypto apocalypse
- 48:54under Trump Washington embrace of crypto main danger the
- 48:58European financial system. But Frankfurt and Brussels are
- 49:01arguing over whether to rewrite a landmark law again, love the
- 49:05projection that we see from the European Union and the ECB that
- 49:09hey, you know, if people start to use Bitcoin, we're going to
- 49:12see a total financial collapse here.
- 49:14And this is the blame Bitcoin or blame stable coins.
- 49:17And it's like now in reality, you should blame yourself
- 49:20because we have nothing to do with your system.
- 49:22We are again in a political neutral money.
- 49:25So going in, here we go. Battle lines are being drawn
- 49:27between the European Central Bank and the European Commission
- 49:30over whether landmark rules to govern crypto currencies are
- 49:33strong enough to withstand the full force of Donald Trump.
- 49:36The ECB thinks the US president's lavish support for
- 49:38the American crypto sector risk causing financial quote
- 49:41contagion that could blow up the European economy, according to a
- 49:45policy paper seen by Politico. It is demanding seeing an urgent
- 49:50rewrite of laws brought fully into force only four months ago.
- 49:54But in a rebuff, the Commission dismissed the bank's alarmist
- 49:57analysis, signaling that it had misunderstood the EU's own rules
- 50:01and hit back at what it saw as an unwelcome intrusion into law
- 50:05making. The argument shed slide on how
- 50:08jittery Financial Policy makers generally are about moves by the
- 50:11Trump administration to, quote, expand the reach of the dollar
- 50:14via complex financial technology.
- 50:17European officials fret that several major financial market
- 50:21reforms the US president has touted will undermine efforts to
- 50:24become a strategically independent or will undermine
- 50:27efforts to become strategically independent.
- 50:29As the EU tries to revamp its financial sector, the worry it
- 50:32will prompt a flight of assets to the US and entrench fresh
- 50:36risk into the system. The specific clashes about the
- 50:39markets and crypto asset regulations, otherwise known as
- 50:42Mika, a landmark law passed in 2023 and heralded as the first
- 50:46regulation worldwide to introduce strong safeguards and
- 50:49consumer protection for cryptocurrency firms.
- 50:52Cryptocurrencies, digital currencies that can be bought,
- 50:54sold and traded online look like be look like they're being given
- 50:58a new light lease on life under Trump after the industry pumped
- 51:02billions of dollars into his election campaign.
- 51:05Now this is, you know, where where they start bringing in the
- 51:08stable coin, so stable and genius at the heart of the
- 51:12recent scuffles anxiety regarding a popular kind of
- 51:15cryptocurrency known as a quote stable coin, which emulates the
- 51:19stability of major currencies like dollars and EUR, unlike
- 51:22more volatile crypto currencies like Bitcoin.
- 51:24Again, as Bitcoiners, we would say as Bitcoin maxes, you know,
- 51:28stable coins are only stable until they're not.
- 51:30Bitcoin is the real stable coin here.
- 51:32But I do like the framling, you know, volatile cryptocurrencies
- 51:35like Bitcoin. You can see the projection and
- 51:37the bias from Politico, but let's we'll we'll put a pin on
- 51:40that one. So the majority of these stable
- 51:42coins are denominated in dollars and in some countries are
- 51:44already used as an easily acceptable alternative to the
- 51:47greenback. When local currencies are
- 51:49unreliable, governments fear they can replace traditional
- 51:51money, undermining national sovereignty and leaving citizens
- 51:54vulnerable to the fortunes of a business with a pension for
- 51:58disaster meltdown. In theory, Mika reduces the risk
- 52:01of foreign currency backed stable coins disrupting the
- 52:04European economy by limiting who can issue them and how much can
- 52:07be issued, while still allowing EU citizens to use them.
- 52:11But plan reforms in the US, including a White House
- 52:13executive order and the drafting of two laws dubbed Stable and
- 52:16Genius, extend the reach of the American stable coin industry,
- 52:20with one analysis by British bank Standard and Charter
- 52:22predicting the supply of dollar backed tokens could hit $2
- 52:25trillion by 2028, up from 240 billion today.
- 52:29This has prompted panic warnings from ECB President Christine
- 52:32Lagarde and its digital payments are Piero Cipione apologies.
- 52:38In recent months, both top officials have suggested that
- 52:41the Mika rules are not strong enough to withstand the effects
- 52:43of a turbocharged US stablecoin industry, worrying that a flood
- 52:47of dollar denominated assets into Europe could reroute
- 52:49European savings into the US. On Thursday, Lagarde said Mika
- 52:53would have to change and implied that the unique threat posed by
- 52:56stablecoin was understood by the Commission and other EU
- 53:00institutions. But Lagarde's audience did not
- 53:03know that her words came after an acrimonious exchange of
- 53:06barbed research papers earlier this month.
- 53:08Anyways, they go on to say that ECB has a fundamental
- 53:11misunderstanding of their own laws.
- 53:14And we're seeing Frankfurt in Brussels be like they're
- 53:17freaking out because they really want to usher in a CBDC.
- 53:20And this is something we've been saying on the show for a long
- 53:22time. Once you understand the game
- 53:24theory playing out right now, a lot of the moves that the
- 53:27European Union or the European Central Bank are making make a
- 53:31lot of sense. Excuse me, Hold on.
- 53:33They are panicked about people using Bitcoin or even using a
- 53:36stable coin, which we would argue is just an extension or I
- 53:39would argue I'm, I'm not going to put words in Nico's mouth
- 53:41here, but I would argue is just an extension of the Fiat system.
- 53:45But what you're seeing, the response coming from Christine
- 53:47Lagarde or ECB or the European Union is very telling when you
- 53:51know that they are rushing till where we've heard in October to
- 53:56release their CBDC, obviously a central bank digital currency,
- 54:01which is basically just you got system on steroids where they
- 54:05can, you know, time your savings out.
- 54:07They can put limits on what you're doing.
- 54:09They can debank you. All of these things are really
- 54:12what one of our, you know, biggest haters in the chat
- 54:15always says, you know, ushering in a cashless society.
- 54:18That's what the CBDC is. And we're seeing that they are
- 54:21going full steam on this. And all of the panic you're
- 54:24seeing around stablecoins or even Bitcoin is all just a
- 54:28response because they know that they want to usher in the CBDC
- 54:32and, and they're going to blame their own problems on something
- 54:35that literally has nothing to do with with their system.
- 54:37It's, it's again, neutral, apolitical.
- 54:40It is outside of their control, outside of their purview.
- 54:43And this freaks them out. And so again, once you
- 54:46understand just the basic fundamentals of Bitcoin,
- 54:50everything else comes into Clearview.
- 54:52This is why you can see when the ECB panics about Bitcoin, what
- 54:56they're really doing is they're trying to fear monger so that
- 54:58they can, you know, fix the payment system in Usher CBDC.
- 55:02But it does play into, and I'm going to pass it on to Chris
- 55:05after this. It does play into our boy Mark
- 55:08Goodwins thesis, the digital, you know, Bitcoin dollar system
- 55:12where we are seeing politicians, though they're being favorable
- 55:16towards Bitcoin, they are pushing a lot of stable coin
- 55:20regulation so that we can maintain, and by we, I mean the
- 55:23American federal government maintain dollar dominance around
- 55:27the world. And, you know, stable coins are
- 55:29a lot, they are a lot easier to get into these other countries
- 55:34that they can't actually get dollars into.
- 55:36And so this is one of the reasons why I'm not the biggest
- 55:40fan of stable coins, though, you know, the biggest one in the
- 55:42world is by far the most profitable Bitcoin company ever,
- 55:46you know, and they're backed by by treasuries.
- 55:49And so this is the big contention that we're seeing
- 55:52right now. We're seeing the US not only
- 55:53GoPro Bitcoin, but GoPro stablecoin.
- 55:56And now we're seeing the ECB in the European Union.
- 55:59Well, not, not as that monolith here, essentially say, hey, you
- 56:03know, we want to usher our CBDC here.
- 56:05So we got to do whatever we can to stop stablecoins and of
- 56:08course, stop the adoption of Bitcoin.
- 56:09So you're seeing not only is there potentially a war in the
- 56:13US between Trump and, you know, the Federal Reserve, but we're
- 56:17seeing there is a global war going on between in the US and
- 56:21the European Union. And the European Union just
- 56:24seems to be taking LS up and down the street every single
- 56:27week. So very interesting stuff.
- 56:29All right, rambled enough. I read enough.
- 56:31Chris, what's your thoughts on this article from Politico?
- 56:34Yeah, I'm going to give a shout out to our boy Mark Goodwin as
- 56:36well. I was actually talking to him
- 56:37probably a couple months ago, a couple weeks ago, I forget.
- 56:39And yeah, just iconic echo his sentiment that stable coins are
- 56:44shouldn't be seen as stable coins or stable dollars or
- 56:47whatever you call them. They're basically privatized
- 56:49CBDCS, which a lot of Bitcoiners have said they thought like
- 56:53government issued CBDC's central bank digital currencies would be
- 56:57like fail on arrival. Or like we've seen it in
- 56:59Nigeria, we've seen it in Europe even.
- 57:02They've tried experiments and we've seen ones that like they
- 57:04try to incentivize them or force people to use it.
- 57:06Probably the only successful 1, so to speak, is China's, the
- 57:10digital yuan. And they kind of force their
- 57:12citizens by keeping them in a black box of making them use it
- 57:16through WeChat or just like any of the banking systems.
- 57:18So they kind of force people into it, but people that want to
- 57:21remain free, you know, they don't want to use it where a lot
- 57:24of the US or private sector basically incentivize with
- 57:28Tether or you know, I know there's a circles a USDC, which
- 57:32I don't I've never heard of anyone using.
- 57:34I don't know how it works. Like I think it's like tether
- 57:36bust basically. There's been a few that have
- 57:38propped up to try and fight it or, or trying to be competition
- 57:41to tether, but Tether by far and away is like the most used ever
- 57:46or most used stablecoin out there.
- 57:49I think Americans were very privileged that like we have
- 57:51other things like like cash app, we have things like Venmo,
- 57:54PayPal, like Zelle, whatever it may be.
- 57:57That being said, though, when you are using their system, you
- 58:00can, it can be reversed if you say something the government
- 58:02doesn't like, if you go up against a political party, if
- 58:05you do, if, if you're a dissenting voice, they can turn
- 58:08off your bank account, they can turn off your insurance, they
- 58:10can withdraw money from your account without you doing
- 58:12anything. So while I'll caveat and say
- 58:14like Tether has a very profitable business, they have
- 58:15like what, less than 100 employees and they've been made
- 58:17literally billions upon billions of dollars.
- 58:19Like their profit margin on just the the volume of employees or
- 58:23the number of employees what they make, as Optius mentioned
- 58:25before, they make more profit than BlackRock per per employee.
- 58:29They probably make more profit per employee than I think any
- 58:33business in the world right now to my knowledge.
- 58:36That being said, and I know a lot of people that I'm going to
- 58:38go against the grain here, so many bitcoiners are like, oh,
- 58:41they're real bitcoiners. I'm like, I don't know if a real
- 58:44bitcoiner would prop up and propose A CBDC.
- 58:47Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking people for use it, just
- 58:50as I'm not knocking people that use Venmo, Zelle, Cash App and
- 58:52stuff like that. Like if you're in South America
- 58:54per SE, if you're in Africa, if you are in your even parts of
- 58:59Europe that require or want the US dollar in order because we
- 59:02have the US dollar hegemony of basically the petrodollar system
- 59:05that you need dollars are better than your Fiat currency.
- 59:08Like I understand why someone would use it, but I don't think
- 59:11we should prop up Ted. They're like, oh, they're good
- 59:13guys. They're here to help us.
- 59:15They guys they've onboarded the IRS and the FBI.
- 59:17And if they want to talk about corrupt organizations, like
- 59:20those are probably in the top five in the US is most corrupt
- 59:22organizations, you can throw the CIA in there as well.
- 59:25But like, I really do think it is like, you know, the private
- 59:28sector's version of a CBDC personally.
- 59:31So I don't know a lot of people like they're awesome bitcoiners,
- 59:33they're stacking Bitcoin. I was like, they've got a great
- 59:34business model. I will give it to them.
- 59:36But like, it's not something I've never used Tether.
- 59:39I don't plan on using Tether. I don't want to be forced to use
- 59:41Tether. You know, I give them props to
- 59:44their business model, but it's not something that I would
- 59:45personally use. And I don't know if they're like
- 59:48a wolf in sheep's closing. Personally, I have nothing
- 59:50against them. It's just buyer beware
- 59:52basically. Yeah, I mean, on their business
- 59:55model, it is great. I do feel similar sentiments as
- 1:00:00Chris. I'm just a Bitcoiner.
- 1:00:02I'm like, just use Bitcoin, man. You know, like just go straight
- 1:00:05to Bitcoin. Yes, the volatility may be hard
- 1:00:08for people to stomach. And again, maybe this is this is
- 1:00:10where Nico would chime in is like, check your financial
- 1:00:12privilege, bro. Like you're an American, you
- 1:00:14know, you're, you got the dollar.
- 1:00:16It's it's the best. Savings mechanism at all the
- 1:00:20Fiat shit coins and I'm like, yeah, yeah, I know, I know.
- 1:00:23But just like I want people to use Bitcoin and and that's what
- 1:00:25I'm here for is for people to use Bitcoin.
- 1:00:27Anyways, Mitchell, what's your thoughts on this story?
- 1:00:30Yeah, I pretty much agree with everything you guys said.
- 1:00:32I mean, I'm an American, so I have no need for tether.
- 1:00:34I can use cash app, Venmo, whatever.
- 1:00:37But I I'm also a little suspect, but the one kind of shining
- 1:00:41light for me with them is tethers partner with rumble and
- 1:00:44rumble has stood the test of time.
- 1:00:46They're they they are adamantly pro free speech.
- 1:00:50They've proven that it's not just talk.
- 1:00:51You know, Elon talks a big game, but there's certain things you
- 1:00:54can and cannot say on X. But rumble anything goes.
- 1:00:58It's it's a total free speech platform.
- 1:01:01I'm a huge fan. I know this stream is going on
- 1:01:02to rumble right now. And so the fact that they
- 1:01:04partner with tether to me gives, you know, some kind of hope for
- 1:01:07tether. But I, I definitely am a little
- 1:01:09suspicious. I mean, they're climbing the
- 1:01:11leaderboards in terms of U.S. Treasury buyers that I think at
- 1:01:15some point they they may single handedly save the the entire
- 1:01:19bond market. We'll see at least on the short
- 1:01:20end. But yeah, I think it's, I'm not
- 1:01:24sold one way or the other on Tether.
- 1:01:25I know some people hate them, some people love them.
- 1:01:27I'm kind of indifferent. Yeah, but I mean, I think the
- 1:01:30point remains the same though, whether you love or hate Tether
- 1:01:34as a Bitcoiner, we are seeing that the European Union is not
- 1:01:38only terrified of Bitcoin, but they're also terrified of
- 1:01:42Tether. And that might be some signal
- 1:01:43there that might be something, you know, a thread to pull on
- 1:01:47moving forward. If if the ECB, you know, if you
- 1:01:50know, ex-girlfriend Christine Lagarde doesn't like Tether,
- 1:01:52then I might just have to become a pro Tether guy because hey, if
- 1:01:55there's, if she, if Tether's scaring her, it might be a
- 1:01:58better, better thing than any of us are really thinking about.
- 1:02:01There might be a 5D chess move here being being a little bit
- 1:02:03charitable here. Anyways, guys, we are going to
- 1:02:06chat with our boy Mitchell Hoddle, one of the best zoomers
- 1:02:09in the game. I would argue and talk about the
- 1:02:12company's working on. And actually we're going to have
- 1:02:14some updates for you guys in, in regards to the trade wars going
- 1:02:18on and how this is going to relate to the Bitcoin mining
- 1:02:22industry. So I'm, I'm really excited for
- 1:02:24this. Let's get to that.
- 1:02:27I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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- 1:04:22today. All right, boys and girls.
- 1:04:29Well, Mitchell, thank you for showing up today.
- 1:04:32Great takes on the show. But before we get into, you
- 1:04:35know, some of the some of the newer developments in the mining
- 1:04:38space, let's just do a quick elevator pitch of what is block
- 1:04:41Ware solutions. Why should people go to you
- 1:04:45guys? Why should people be mining?
- 1:04:47And then we'll talk about kind of the different factors playing
- 1:04:49out right now. Yeah, happy to talk about this,
- 1:04:52Opti. So blockware is a mining as a
- 1:04:55service provider. So if you were to plug an ASIC
- 1:04:58in at your house, which an ASIC is a Bitcoin miner, as I'm sure
- 1:05:01a lot of your listeners know, you would probably not be able
- 1:05:03to mine profitably unless you live in the middle of nowhere
- 1:05:06and your power rates are extremely low.
- 1:05:09Chances are it's going to cost you north of a hundred, a 150K
- 1:05:12per Bitcoin to mine. So totally unprofitable for most
- 1:05:15people at home. Plus, nobody wants to handle the
- 1:05:18heat and the noise and all the setup.
- 1:05:20And so blockware offers solution to those problems where we have
- 1:05:24data centers and really remote locations across the United
- 1:05:26States and we plug machines in on behalf of Bitcoin miners so
- 1:05:30they can mine at low electricity rates and without doing any of
- 1:05:33the work themselves. Love it bro, Appreciate it.
- 1:05:37OK, now I think before we go into the stuff, it just popped
- 1:05:41in my head. I, I told you I was going to do
- 1:05:43any curveballs here, but hosting mining has had a bad, bad
- 1:05:47reputation in the last couple years.
- 1:05:49I think it's fundamentally changing and people are, are
- 1:05:52starting to see the, the actual use case of this.
- 1:05:54So for those people with concerns about hosting, mining
- 1:05:58with you guys or even just in general, what would be your take
- 1:06:01away from that? Yeah, that's a very reasonable
- 1:06:04question to ask because there have been some bad shady
- 1:06:06operators in the hosted mining space.
- 1:06:08And so some of the issues you've seen in the past are
- 1:06:11transparency lead times, setting up machines or facilities in in
- 1:06:17terrible places in the across the world.
- 1:06:20And so block where we've tried to work our our best to solve a
- 1:06:22lot of those problems and I think we've done a really great
- 1:06:24job. So the first one is
- 1:06:26transparency. Obviously with Bitcoiners, don't
- 1:06:29trust verify is a core ethos. And so with hosted mining, you
- 1:06:33are trusting an operator to run a miner on your behalf.
- 1:06:36And so we've created a product, it's called the block where
- 1:06:39marketplace and it allows you to see miners online, see their
- 1:06:44hash rate, their revenue, their energy consumption before you
- 1:06:47actually make a purchase. So you can see on the left side
- 1:06:51of the the dashboard there it tells you which which state that
- 1:06:54machines plugged in. So KY is Kentucky, GA is
- 1:06:57Georgia, TX is Texas. We've got a variety of different
- 1:06:59sites. And if you click on one of these
- 1:07:01machines, it'll take you to a dashboard, You can see its
- 1:07:04historical hash rate over the last 30 or so days.
- 1:07:07You can see how much Bitcoin it's mined.
- 1:07:09And this is all before you actually make a purchase.
- 1:07:11So you're not buying some sketchy miner that might get
- 1:07:14plugged in at some point, might not, You know, it's online right
- 1:07:17now. And so we also eliminate lead
- 1:07:19times because time is money. And there was a huge problem
- 1:07:23during the last having epoch where people would buy a minor
- 1:07:26from one of these hosts and the minor wouldn't come online for
- 1:07:29three or four months. Now, a lot of that was global
- 1:07:33supply chain problems. There was no matter, no matter
- 1:07:36what you were ordering in any industry, things were delayed.
- 1:07:38But with Bitcoin mining, you don't want to do that, right?
- 1:07:40Because you want to be mining during the bull markets.
- 1:07:42You don't want to miss, you know, some of those crucial
- 1:07:44windows of profitability. And so with the marketplace, you
- 1:07:47could buy a miner that's already online and all, right, so you
- 1:07:51may say, well, it's a used miner.
- 1:07:52Like how do I know it's actually good?
- 1:07:54Well, on the marketplace, you can see the serial number of the
- 1:07:56machine. You can check with the
- 1:07:57manufacturer to see if it's still under warranty.
- 1:08:00You can see the exact date it was plugged in.
- 1:08:02So some of these miners are quote UN quote used, but they've
- 1:08:05only been plugged in and running for basically a week or a month
- 1:08:08or whatever. And so at block where we've
- 1:08:11solved a lot of the problems that have plagued host of mining
- 1:08:13before. And I, I think, you know,
- 1:08:16obviously I'm biased, but I think we, we're the best partner
- 1:08:18if you want to actually mine Bitcoin, but you don't want to
- 1:08:20have to do any of the work yourself.
- 1:08:22Love it man. And and again, another question
- 1:08:25that just popped up. Not trying to do curveballs
- 1:08:27here. And of course, a biased answer.
- 1:08:30We're all biased here. Well, at least we're all we're
- 1:08:32honest about our biases. Is now a good time to be mining
- 1:08:36Bitcoin? I know the hash rate's
- 1:08:37exploding. I like me and Chris were kind of
- 1:08:40joking about it earlier. I know a lot of friends that,
- 1:08:43you know, went really, really deep into mining and where me
- 1:08:46and Chris were just like, I'm just so glad I stacked Bitcoin.
- 1:08:49So from someone more on the inside, is now a good time to,
- 1:08:53you know, get a contract with you guys?
- 1:08:55Like what? What's your thinking here?
- 1:08:58It certainly depends on your risk profile, and I'll kind of
- 1:09:02unpack this in a few different ways.
- 1:09:03So when you are mining Bitcoin, we like to compare to investing
- 1:09:09in real estate. And when you buy real estate,
- 1:09:11you're not buying real estate because you want real estate per
- 1:09:14SE. You want something that you can
- 1:09:17do accelerated depreciation and write off capital gains taxes.
- 1:09:21You want cash flow and you want a hard asset.
- 1:09:23Bitcoin mining's the same way. So one advantage of mining
- 1:09:26Bitcoin versus buying Bitcoin yourself is you could do what's
- 1:09:29called accelerated depreciation on your minors.
- 1:09:32So you can depreciate the entire book value of the minor in a
- 1:09:36single year. So if it's, you know, the year
- 1:09:38end is rolling around, you've got a lot of capital gains and
- 1:09:40you want to offset them, you can buy some minors, depreciate
- 1:09:43them. I'm not an accountant so
- 1:09:45obviously double check with your accountant and your finance guy,
- 1:09:48but that's one reason some of our clients mind.
- 1:09:50Love it. Yeah.
- 1:09:51Oh, keep going. Because it's a Bitcoin
- 1:09:53accumulation strategy. And so the idea with mining is
- 1:09:56if you think the Bitcoin price over the next 12 to 24 to 36
- 1:10:01months is going to grow faster than the hash rate, then you
- 1:10:04should be mining because that means your profit margins as a
- 1:10:07miner will expand. And over time, by producing
- 1:10:11Bitcoin at an important point, you can make up for the actual
- 1:10:14upfront cost of the machine. And so I view mining through
- 1:10:18kind of windows, right? You have, you obviously have the
- 1:10:20halvings every four years in the earlier you can start mining
- 1:10:23during one of those windows, the better off you're going to be.
- 1:10:25And so we have three years until the next having and I'm pretty
- 1:10:29convinced that the Bitcoin price is going to go up significantly
- 1:10:31over the three years. I, you know, think anywhere from
- 1:10:34200 to 400 to 600 K to even a million, you know, pick your
- 1:10:38pick your bullish price target, take any of those.
- 1:10:41And do you think mining difficulty can grow at the same
- 1:10:44rate? I don't see it because for the
- 1:10:46Bitcoin price to go up, it can take one or two big buyers,
- 1:10:49right? It can take, you know, it's just
- 1:10:51a marginal change in supplier demand can cause a Bitcoin price
- 1:10:54to go up. 3050, a 100% in a very short period of time.
- 1:10:58We saw twice in 2024, we saw a jump from 40K to 60K in about a
- 1:11:02month. And we saw a jump from 60K to
- 1:11:04about 100K in the span of two months.
- 1:11:06And so these very quick windows of Bitcoin price appreciation,
- 1:11:10you can't see that same growth rate in mining difficulty.
- 1:11:13Now why is that? Well, because unlike the Bitcoin
- 1:11:15price, which can move very quickly at the margin to
- 1:11:19actually increase mining difficulty, to increase the
- 1:11:21total hash rate on the network, you have to build data centers,
- 1:11:25you have to R&D new machine, new machine chips, you have to
- 1:11:29manufacture them and ship them over from Asia to the United
- 1:11:32States. You have to produce power, you
- 1:11:34have to actually get the machines plugged in.
- 1:11:35It's it's a long process and you see historically you've seen a
- 1:11:40lag. So you'll see the Bitcoin price
- 1:11:42go way up. Mining becomes a lot more
- 1:11:45profitable, so miners or investors rather, they'll rotate
- 1:11:49their exposure rather than buying spot Bitcoin into ASICS
- 1:11:52and mining infrastructure and energy production.
- 1:11:55But it's not until a year or 18 months after that fact that you
- 1:11:59see hash rate really start to rise.
- 1:12:01Like in 2023 you saw hash rate rise a lot, but that was on the
- 1:12:05back of 2021 and 2022, the Bitcoin price going up.
- 1:12:09So I think you're if you're bullish on Bitcoin over the next
- 1:12:1212 to 24 to 36 months, then mining is a great way to kind of
- 1:12:16get that additional exposure. And I think we're moving past
- 1:12:19the point of, you know, if you're a Bitcoin or like unless
- 1:12:22it's all cold storage in a in a cold car tucked away into your
- 1:12:25mattress, like, yeah, that's not the only view right now.
- 1:12:28You've got other other ways to kind of get Bitcoin exposure.
- 1:12:31You've got you've got that cold storage Bitcoin, which should be
- 1:12:33the crux of people savings. I hold a wholeheartedly agree
- 1:12:36with that. But you've also got
- 1:12:38MicroStrategy, you've got ibit, you've got Msty, you've got a
- 1:12:42bunch of different products. And so if you're trying to build
- 1:12:44a Bitcoin ICE portfolio, I think mining is a great asset to have
- 1:12:48in there, owning the physical ASICS because their prices can
- 1:12:51be correlated to Bitcoin. And on top of that, you're
- 1:12:54actually accumulating Bitcoin into your cold storage all the
- 1:12:56time, right? The point of buying something
- 1:12:58like a MicroStrategy or a metaplanet is you're hoping to
- 1:13:01outperform Bitcoin. Now the problem is you have to
- 1:13:05sell for cash, take capital gains, and then ultimately buy
- 1:13:08Bitcoin and send it to your cold storage before you're actually
- 1:13:10quote UN quote realizing those Bitcoin gains.
- 1:13:13But with mining, you're constantly sending Bitcoin into
- 1:13:16cold storage so you can outperform over a long term,
- 1:13:19while also everyday you're actually increasing your cold
- 1:13:22storage stack. Does that make sense?
- 1:13:24Yeah, it totally does. Totally does.
- 1:13:27Chris, you said you wanted to pop in here.
- 1:13:28Yeah, I have two questions for you, Mitch.
- 1:13:30So they're kind of unrelated, but they're both related to, I
- 1:13:33guess your business. So do customers have to worry
- 1:13:35about power contracts? Like let's just say, you know,
- 1:13:37they lock in for a term and then let's just say the power
- 1:13:40provider, you know, one of the main imports or the main thing
- 1:13:43aside from the cost of the ASIC and maybe space is basically the
- 1:13:46cost of power. So let's just say, you know, the
- 1:13:49power providers like, hey, it's a 5% increase in fees because of
- 1:13:52XY and Z. So do me as a customer, if I was
- 1:13:55a customer for blocker, do I have to worry about?
- 1:13:56Our rates, great question. So with our clients at
- 1:14:00Blockware, we operate on a fixed power rate.
- 1:14:02So you can sign a contract for 1-2 or three years typically
- 1:14:07from 7 to 8 cent per kWh. And for reference, the average
- 1:14:11retail rate in the United States is about $0.16 per kWh.
- 1:14:14So your power cost is going to be cut in half mining with
- 1:14:17Blockware versus mining with, you know, just at home by
- 1:14:20yourself. But what's interesting is you're
- 1:14:22not actually locked in quote, UN quote for the entire duration of
- 1:14:25the contract to the block room marketplace, which we were
- 1:14:28mentioning earlier. All of our clients have access
- 1:14:30to that to sell their machine at any time.
- 1:14:33And so this allows you to mine without having that long term
- 1:14:37commitment. But more importantly, you can
- 1:14:39capitalize on volatility in machine prices.
- 1:14:43And for example, in 2021, we saw the price of the most popular
- 1:14:47miner at the time, the S 19, it increased 10X from March 2020 to
- 1:14:52April of 2021. But there was no way to get
- 1:14:55liquidity on that because you could unplug the machine at your
- 1:14:58site and mail it to someone else and like it just, it was just
- 1:15:01hard to do deals, right. But with block Ware, you can
- 1:15:03sell your machine as well as the bundled energy contract with
- 1:15:07that on our marketplace. So if we saw a similar price
- 1:15:10action in the ASIC market over the next over the coming years,
- 1:15:14you can buy a machine now, mine with it for a little bit and
- 1:15:16then sell it at A at a profit later in the future.
- 1:15:20All right, that's cool. And then two more follow up
- 1:15:22questions here. Can users or customers pay for
- 1:15:25their contracts in Bitcoin or Lightning?
- 1:15:27And then also is there a component that can they do this
- 1:15:30basically KYC free or KYC Lite with only an e-mail or an
- 1:15:33account? To your last question, I will
- 1:15:36plead the 5th between the lines depends on how many machines
- 1:15:42you're buying, but that I'll leave it at that.
- 1:15:44The marketplace you could buy with Bitcoin on chain Lightning
- 1:15:48is coming very, very soon. We're actually, it may be out
- 1:15:51already, if not in the very near future.
- 1:15:53We've been working with a partner to get to get Lightning
- 1:15:55payments rolling because I'm a huge fan of Lightning.
- 1:15:58I think that's one of going to be what really elevates Bitcoin
- 1:16:00to be a more popular medium of exchange.
- 1:16:03And then you can also convert your crust nasty dirty nasty
- 1:16:05Fiat into Bitcoin miners as well.
- 1:16:08Love it. Thanks.
- 1:16:09Yeah, that's it. You got any?
- 1:16:11Questions. Yeah.
- 1:16:12Yeah. Well, I think that was a great
- 1:16:14overview of blockware. But I think what a lot of us
- 1:16:16Bitcoiners are trying to wrap our head around is not only how
- 1:16:20the tariff trade war is affecting, you know, markets and
- 1:16:23the prices, but seemingly it's going to affect, you know,
- 1:16:27shipping ASICS to the US because they're mainly coming out of
- 1:16:31China. So what's your take on how this
- 1:16:34trade war will affect in fact the ASIC market and not so much
- 1:16:37just like the general money markets?
- 1:16:39Great question. So I will put a caveat on there.
- 1:16:43All of the manufacturers are headquartered in China, but they
- 1:16:46do what's called near shore manufacturing.
- 1:16:48So they'll, they'll make the machines in Malaysia or Thailand
- 1:16:51or Indonesia and that will be the label on the shipping.
- 1:16:56So, but there's still tariffs on those countries, right?
- 1:16:58So it's, there is still some effect that the tariffs on those
- 1:17:01countries in particular ranges from I think 24 to 34%.
- 1:17:04So that's going to have a noticeable impact because the
- 1:17:07Bitcoin mining industry, like you alluded to, it's, it's kind
- 1:17:10of fragmented. You have one core component of
- 1:17:12the industry, which is manufacturers.
- 1:17:14They're all in Asia. And then the majority of the
- 1:17:16site operators are in the United States, like well over a third
- 1:17:20of the total hash rate is in the United States.
- 1:17:22And so having this tariff of course is going to impact those
- 1:17:26US based Bitcoin miners. And we're already starting to
- 1:17:29see prices adjust upward. And I mentioned before that time
- 1:17:33is money. And ultimately what this is
- 1:17:36heading towards is miners that have machines right now in the
- 1:17:40United States, they're not overseas.
- 1:17:43Those machines are going to have an even higher premium.
- 1:17:46So they already have a premium. If you can buy Mac miners from a
- 1:17:49broker or a facility that's here in the United States, it's going
- 1:17:53to be quicker than ordering directly from the manufacturer
- 1:17:57and having it shipped overseas. Plus you have just the
- 1:17:59uncertainty like could it take a month?
- 1:18:01Could it take three months? Sometimes bit main and and micro
- 1:18:04BT, they're a little finicky with their delivery times.
- 1:18:06So miners will pay a premium to get machines that are already in
- 1:18:09the United States, But that premium is going to expand now
- 1:18:13that you have these tariffs because that's going to be an
- 1:18:14additional cost on the front end for for the brokers, as well as
- 1:18:18just make it more, more beneficial to buy miners that
- 1:18:21are already here in the United States.
- 1:18:23So I think that's something we're we're definitely going to
- 1:18:25be keeping an eye on. And then the, the second point
- 1:18:28to that is I think difficulty, the growth rate is going to slow
- 1:18:32down because if miners are more hesitant to order machines from
- 1:18:36the manufacturers, ultimately downstream, we're going to see
- 1:18:39fewer machines getting plugged in over the coming 12 to 24
- 1:18:43months, which makes the bull case I talked about earlier
- 1:18:46where the Bitcoin price outpaces growth in difficulty.
- 1:18:50That could be more of even more pronounced if we see this sort
- 1:18:53of slow down, which we've seen historically.
- 1:18:56Everybody likes to point to the, you know, hash rate makes new
- 1:18:59all time highs, which it does. But if you look at it in log
- 1:19:02scale or even just based on each having epoch, hash rate is not
- 1:19:06growing nearly as much as it used to.
- 1:19:07In the the 2012 to 2016 cycle, hash rate grew by like
- 1:19:121,000,000% something ridiculous. And then in the 2020 to 2024
- 1:19:16epoch it grew by about 500%. And so I think overall we're
- 1:19:20going to see yeah, if I don't know if this chart he will show
- 1:19:23in log scale. So here for the audio listeners,
- 1:19:26I have the hash rate in linear terms and then you can pull it
- 1:19:29in log if you haven't seen this and this is what Mitchell's
- 1:19:32talking about. Right.
- 1:19:33And you can see clearly here it it's flattening out over time.
- 1:19:36And so that that really for me is the bull case for Bitcoin
- 1:19:39mining over sort of an intermediate time frame, you
- 1:19:42know, a year to two to three years.
- 1:19:44Is that Bitcoin when price is going to go up, but hash rate as
- 1:19:46you can see it's it's not going to be able to increase nearly as
- 1:19:48much. Yeah, that's that's a great,
- 1:19:51great insights, dude. Also, I've been seeing a lot of
- 1:19:55different metrics here but and I know I know bit info has like I
- 1:20:00think this is using like some kind of like moving average on
- 1:20:04the hash rate. But we're seeing that the
- 1:20:07Bitcoin hash rate is over a Zeta hash now.
- 1:20:09Like how, how, how, like how big do you think the hash rate will
- 1:20:15increase in the next couple of years?
- 1:20:17You, like you said, it's kind of tabling, you know, tapering off
- 1:20:20here. Do you see that, that we will
- 1:20:22see in, in like an extreme increase in, in hash rate?
- 1:20:27Like do you think we'll get the two Zeta hashes like by next
- 1:20:29year? Or like how, how do you think
- 1:20:31this process is going through? Because this doesn't affect the
- 1:20:34hash price for people that are mining out there.
- 1:20:36And like you're saying, if we do see less ASICS hit the market,
- 1:20:40you know, we might, they might be seeing, you know, a very
- 1:20:43strong taper on hash rate increasing.
- 1:20:46Great question. So I will firmly and adamantly
- 1:20:50stay, no, we're not at a Zeta hash because you have to look at
- 1:20:54hash rate through moving average.
- 1:20:55So the way the Bitcoin blockchain works is it's almost
- 1:20:59random, right? Miners are simply guessing and
- 1:21:01checking a gajillion times every single second.
- 1:21:04And sometimes you find blocks really, really fast.
- 1:21:06And so if you're not looking at a moving average, you could see,
- 1:21:09you know, a block could get found 2 seconds after the
- 1:21:11previous block and people could point to it and say, oh, look,
- 1:21:13the hash rate, you know, quadrupled over the last day.
- 1:21:16Like, no, that actually didn't happen.
- 1:21:18It's just, you know, random block variation.
- 1:21:19And so when you look at hash rate over a 14 or 30 day moving
- 1:21:23average, that there's moments of randomness basically get
- 1:21:26smoothed out. And so I, I just put it up here
- 1:21:29on a 30 day moving average hash rates at 876 XA hash.
- 1:21:35So we're not far off from the coveted one Zeta hash.
- 1:21:38And I do believe we'll, we'll likely get it this year, maybe
- 1:21:42slightly into next year because you think about all the mining
- 1:21:46infrastructure that's already been built, all the machines
- 1:21:48that have already been plugged in, we're talking gigawatts upon
- 1:21:51gigawatts of energy. Increasing that by 10% is not a
- 1:21:54small task, right? Versus the Bitcoin price can
- 1:21:56increase 10% overnight. To plug in 10% additional
- 1:22:01machines and produce 10% additional energy is going to be
- 1:22:06kind of a a challenge. It's going to require real, real
- 1:22:08worlds inputs. So to that point, I, I think
- 1:22:11we'll see one Zeta hash sometime in the near future, sometime
- 1:22:14before the next having. But then getting to that second
- 1:22:17Zeta hash and that third Zeta hash, could you know it?
- 1:22:19It could take some time. Got it, Love it, love it.
- 1:22:22Great insights. Actually, one last question
- 1:22:24before we wrap this up, considering we are entering like
- 1:22:27a whole new global paradigm here.
- 1:22:29I know you've probably been on top of this new story, but we
- 1:22:32are hearing a bunch of rumors come out of, you know, China and
- 1:22:35Russia not only settling oil, you know, transactions in
- 1:22:39Bitcoin. But there was also a new story,
- 1:22:41I believe it was this week essentially from Jeffrey saying
- 1:22:44that they are starting to incentivize or at least talk
- 1:22:48about more domestic mining, you know, operations in China or
- 1:22:52Russia. How do you think this affects
- 1:22:54the the global hash rate or even just for minor profitability in
- 1:22:58the US? Yeah, it's a bit of a double
- 1:23:01edged sword because China and Russia plugging in new miners,
- 1:23:05it's going to make difficult to go up.
- 1:23:07But on the other hand, if they're plugging in miners with
- 1:23:10free power sites operated by slave labor, not to laugh about
- 1:23:14it, but like that's genuinely what you'd be competing against.
- 1:23:17If they're doing that, then chances are they're not having
- 1:23:19to sell a lot of the Bitcoin that they mine.
- 1:23:21So that's going to be positive for the Bitcoin price.
- 1:23:24And so I think it's inevitable. I mean, I'm, I'm convinced right
- 1:23:28now we have multiple nation states mining.
- 1:23:30It's, I feel like that's, that's pretty obvious at this point.
- 1:23:33And China and Russia specifically, there are big
- 1:23:37countries that got a lot of natural resources.
- 1:23:39They're obviously in direct competition with the United
- 1:23:41States right now in terms of a financial sense.
- 1:23:44And so it makes sense that they're settling some amount of
- 1:23:47trade in Bitcoin because gold, while it's it's pumping right
- 1:23:51now and the price is doing well, it's very impractical to use as
- 1:23:54a medium of exchange. You have to authenticate that
- 1:23:58the person you're doing business with or the country you're doing
- 1:24:01business with is giving you real gold and not fake gold.
- 1:24:03And it's difficult to move, it's heavy.
- 1:24:05It's hard to secure all of the things that make gold good and a
- 1:24:09neutral non sovereign money Bitcoin does 100 times better.
- 1:24:12And so over slowly over the next couple of years, I think we'll
- 1:24:16see more, more countries settling trade in Bitcoin and
- 1:24:19more countries mining Bitcoin. Love it, man.
- 1:24:22Well, did again. One of my favorite zoomers
- 1:24:25coming on here. Just with all the sauce here,
- 1:24:28Mitchell. So just to wrap up the show,
- 1:24:31let's do you know, final message, Mitch.
- 1:24:33It could be about Bitcoin, it could be about mining with
- 1:24:36blockware, whatever you want. Final message.
- 1:24:38What's the last thing you want to leave with the audience?
- 1:24:42Stay humble and stack sats. I'm going to copy Matt Odell.
- 1:24:45It's over the last month, I've seen so many people flip bearish
- 1:24:49like on the on the turn of a hat.
- 1:24:51And so just keep a long time horizon, think in multiple year
- 1:24:54time frames and accumulate as much Bitcoin as you can.
- 1:24:57And if you want to mind with block Ware and go to
- 1:24:59blockwaresolutions.com. We actually just revamped our
- 1:25:02website at launch today. So it should look look a lot
- 1:25:05sexier than if you've been there before.
- 1:25:06So yeah, you can follow me on Twitter at Mitchell Hodel and
- 1:25:09happy to talk Bitcoin anytime. Let's go, man.
- 1:25:12And also, you know what? We'll do a plug go go get
- 1:25:15Mitchell's book What's the Conservative Case for Bitcoin?
- 1:25:18That's right. The conservative case for
- 1:25:19Bitcoin published before Trump was pro Bitcoin, by the way.
- 1:25:23So I, I, I had the foresight to see that the right wing was
- 1:25:26going to embrace Bitcoin. I still think we're early in
- 1:25:28that those days and in none of the states that have introduced
- 1:25:31Bitcoin strategic reserves have passed it yet.
- 1:25:33But I do think that's coming and I think that's something people
- 1:25:36have forgotten about is that we're going to see multiple
- 1:25:38states across the country start to develop their own Bitcoin
- 1:25:40positions. And politics moves slow.
- 1:25:42It's a, it's a turtle, not a hare.
- 1:25:44So I think maybe that'll happen this election cycle, maybe it'll
- 1:25:47be the next, but over the next 10 years we're going to have a
- 1:25:49lot of states with with a decent bit sized Bitcoin position.
- 1:25:53Yeah, and, and also kudos to you bro, cuz when you did release
- 1:25:56that book, we brought you on the show and it was still like a
- 1:25:59spicy topic at that point. And in hindsight it's like wow,
- 1:26:03you know, 2020 hindsight. Like yeah, of course I was
- 1:26:05right. Like it was, it's so obvious
- 1:26:07then. So, yeah, kudos to you again.
- 1:26:09Wanna wanna, I wouldn't say up and coming bit corners, but one
- 1:26:13of the zoomers that's really dominating out there.
- 1:26:15So love to see your work, Mitch. And also Chris, I'll do the same
- 1:26:18thing. You know, I think everyone's
- 1:26:19familiar with you at this point on the show, but you want a
- 1:26:22final message before I wrap up today's show.
- 1:26:25I, I don't want to steal Mitch's message because I always stay,
- 1:26:27stay, stay humble and stack sats.
- 1:26:29But I, I will echo that sentiment.
- 1:26:31I'll say build strong families, strong communities, you know,
- 1:26:35try and give back your time and sats to, for those in need.
- 1:26:38You also, the best thing that you can give back is your time
- 1:26:41because it's truly the only thing that's scarcer than
- 1:26:43Bitcoin. So I'd say go out there,
- 1:26:45volunteer, give, donate money to open SAT's or to the PDP Rights
- 1:26:49Foundation as the Samurai devs fight their case, as well as a
- 1:26:53couple other court cases that we've talked about in the past.
- 1:26:56So yeah, just build strong families, strong communities and
- 1:26:58donate your time. Love it, man.
- 1:27:00Some words of wisdom. All right, guys, before I roll
- 1:27:03out today's show, though, we do want to plug the Bitcoin
- 1:27:07conference 2025 in Vegas. We are taking over Las Vegas.
- 1:27:11We are embracing the game theory.
- 1:27:13There's going to be some great speakers there.
- 1:27:15The whole Simply Bitcoin team will be down there.
- 1:27:18So make sure you scan the QR code.
- 1:27:20Get your ticket today, guys. It's what less?
- 1:27:22It's about a month and five days away.
- 1:27:25Everyone always sees the FOMO. They start to feel the FOMO once
- 1:27:28the conference week comes up. Get your ticket today, get where
- 1:27:32you're going to stay. We are going to take over the
- 1:27:34Venetian. I'm I'm super excited to see
- 1:27:36what the Bitcoin mag team, the Bitcoin conference team pulls
- 1:27:39together this year. It's always bigger and better
- 1:27:42than the last year. So scan the QR code.
- 1:27:44Use simply all caps to get a 10% discount.
- 1:27:47On that note, guys, this was simply Bitcoin episode.
- 1:27:52I think 12:28. I believe this is April 22nd.
- 1:27:57Here, let me let me pull you guys off the screen and I'll
- 1:27:58roll this one out hang out for a second as I wrap this up.
- 1:28:01All right guys, it's your boy Opti Nikko will be gone till I
- 1:28:05think Friday. He's in El Salvador doing I
- 1:28:09think you guys are going to love it.
- 1:28:10A really awesome interview. I I still yet to know how big of
- 1:28:14an interview it's going to be. It might be a series.
- 1:28:17It might only be Rumble exclusive, I don't know yet.
- 1:28:20We don't know how it's going to work out, but I'm telling you,
- 1:28:22you guys are going to love this and San Diego's going to be gone
- 1:28:25until Friday, I believe. So you're stuck with me guys.
- 1:28:28Let's let's just make it through the week.
- 1:28:31And last thing I want to plug guys, make sure you go to
- 1:28:33simplybitcoin.com and at the top hit the tab blog.
- 1:28:36We are dropping some very good articles on our sub stack.
- 1:28:40They are a little more macro focus.
- 1:28:43I know we talk about Bitcoin constantly and so we are trying
- 1:28:46to drop some macro articles on you guys so you can kind of
- 1:28:49start to understand what's going on on the global landscape here.
- 1:28:53Most of them are Bitcoin centric, so they will wrap
- 1:28:56Bitcoin into it, but it is trying to wrap our heads around,
- 1:28:59you know, what's going on with the trade wars, what's going on
- 1:29:02with you know, potential monetary reset, etcetera,
- 1:29:05etcetera. We've been dropping a lot of
- 1:29:06heat on our sub stack. Go sign up, make sure you are
- 1:29:10signing up to it. It hits your mailbox.
- 1:29:12We're trying to do one to two a week.
- 1:29:14Every Monday you should get one kind of dropped, two a week,
- 1:29:17something like that, but we are dropping a lot of articles.
- 1:29:20Don't sleep on that. All right, boys and girls, on
- 1:29:22that note, your boy Opti, go outside, touch some grass, get a
- 1:29:25workout in, eat some good food, call your loved ones, all that
- 1:29:29good stuff. As we always say, stay humble,
- 1:29:31stack sad, stay solvent. We are seeing the Bitcoin price
- 1:29:34start to move. Now is not the time to get
- 1:29:38emotional and lose your stack. So we'll see you tomorrow.
- 1:29:41I'll be back tomorrow. On that note, peace out.
- 1:29:45Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:29:49Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:29:52independence.