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Super Bowl LVIII Trends · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: am Chad Moulman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Today as our NFL Super Bowl Trends episode, this is
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the episode where we will be joined by the world
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: famous Evan Abrams. Because what research guru can say. They've
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: shown up at a live event for the podcast that
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: they are an integral part of, and a fan loves
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: what he is producing so much that that fan put
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: in permanent marker stats that Evan has produced about this
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: fans favorite player on the jersey that he bought with
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of money of that favorite player. I'm talking,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: of course about this fan who loves Dak Prescott and
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: all over his jersey put in permanent marker stats that
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams has recited about Dak Prescott. As our old
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: pal Colin Coward likes to say, there is a sea
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: of money out there, let's get to it. Also, this
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: is our last chance, your last chance to submit your
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  Speaker 1: prop bet in our Bet three six five Super Bowl
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  Speaker 1: And if you pass the vetting of Matt Mitchell, you
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: can join us on the podcast. Let's bring in my
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike com Padra, my BFF professional
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: better Sigmon Hunter n Us Simon. Hello, dude, We're now
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: only like nine days away from the super Bowl and
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: so this is the perfect time to bring in the
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: man we've referenced more on this show than Patrick Mahomes
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: and Brock Purty combined. He's Action Networks head of Research.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: He is a font of information. He is a betting savant.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: He has forgotten more about betting than all of our
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: listeners combined. New York City's finest Heavin Abrams.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I have never in my life gotten that type of
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: intro and I think you've actually introed me before at
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: a live event. So that was incredible. And the one
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: thing I will say about that at Jersey Permanent Ink
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: and the money spent, so that was more dedication than
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: I've ever had. So I appreciate that fan more than anything,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: and what's up, guys.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Good to see you. I'm glad you're here. We got
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff to break down. This is a
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: good way for us to review all the trends that
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: are going to inform decisions for the Super Bowl and
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: partially make us feel better about some of the stuff
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: we've already discussed in the Tuesday pod, which was liking
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and liking the under We already know there's
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: been a million dollar bet on the Niners money line
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: at a sportsbook that is not Bet three six five.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: So and the initial take is that the wise guys
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are on the Niners. So Simon and I are looking
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: for some handrails on the roller coaster, Buddy. The Favorites
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three
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  Speaker 1: six five must be twenty one or older and present
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia or
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: eighteen and oh they're in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right. Time to get
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: into it, boys, Evan would start with winning winners who cover.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a pretty simple one fifty seven super bowls.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Those teams are fifty seven and oh, that's a great trend, Evan,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: but they are forty eight seven and two against the
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: spread eighty seven percent. So that means of the fifty
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: seven Super Bowls, the winning team has lost against the
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: spread just seven times. The winning team is overwhelmingly the
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: team that covers, but with a spread under a field goal,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: it is unlikely to matter one way or the other.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Two more points would be This is supposed to be
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: the sixteenth straight Super Bowl where the favorite is laying
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: less than seven points, extending the longest streak in super
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: Bowl history. So all the Super Bowls recently very small
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: numbers and the most common numbers three eight times and
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: four six times, so nothing out of the ordinary. And
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: as we're messing around now with twos and threes, it's
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: all very important. And going back to that point, ched
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or less
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: twenty nine and one against the spread that one Simon
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: mentioned it earlier that Bengals Rams game that kind of
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: broke it all. And then when you do four or less,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: it's twenty two and h eleven dogs eleven favorites straight up.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: So these small numbers just pick a winner.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: A club record eighty plus thousand showed up to see
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: some serious headbanging in the AFC Championship.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, let me ask you this. We've already
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: bet the Chiefs plus two and a half. Do we
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: take the Niners on the money line?
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: Now, I'm thinking you can get even weirder with it.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: After an Evans stat I feel like the play is
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: you just take the Chiefs two and a half, where
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: you take the forty nine Ers minus two and a
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: half and you get a plus number on both sides,
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: and it sounds likely whoever wins the number lands on three.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: So that's crazy. I didn't know it was like that
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: with football. Where basically the team that wins not only
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: do they cover, they cover by a decent amount. So
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: pretty interesting trend there that you can play these adjusted
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: lines and you'd be pretty profitable, Chad, So.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: You're saying, go find an art line of the Chiefs
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: that minus two and a half, which would be an
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: interesting number to find. You'd get it at plus money
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: and then and then you also play the Niners at well,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: you could play the Niners at whatever you want right now.
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: Play minus two and a half two.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: I'm looking at it right now. It's plus one ten
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: forty nine minus one one and a half.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: What are the Chiefs minus two and a half.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that is a fun bet. I'm seeing plus
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: one fifty and plus one forty so obviously shop around
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: for that one.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: But it's like fifty cents better. Yeah, that's that's pretty
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: signific nice.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: That is a great idea. I love that, like because simon, look,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: we're looking.
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: We're already doing their show live. It's down to one
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: thirty now, you know. I no, No, that's crazy though, But.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing I feel like, still good. I feel
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: like we are looking for opportunities to bet the Chiefs
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: but there's always a little bit of a fear because
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: we already know we're on the opposite side of what
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters are thinking. There's a little
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: bit of fear, So this gives us an opportunity to
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: sort of find the hedges that we like a lot
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: and sprinkle the field a little bit, because I would
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: rather have more money on the chief side of the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: equation than on the niner side of the equation. But
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: I don't mind betting both sides of these, and.
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: I've got incredibly lucky betty these type of adjusted lines,
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: where just five years ago I took the cheats pretty
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: heavy on an adjusted line a minus six and a half,
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: and that was a dead number. They were losing, right Evan.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I believe they were losing heading and into the third
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: quarter of the fourth quarter, and they had a fluke
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: run at the end of the game that broke open
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: and they had winning by I don't know if it
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: was ten or eight, whatever it was. I ended up
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: covering the adjusted numbers. So it is scary betting these
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: adjusted numbers. But Evan just told you they hit like
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: these numbers hit. When you bet these teams to win,
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: they usually don't just win by a point or two.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: They usually win by a couple and cover their cover
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: their adjusted lines. So yeah, I like to play, especially
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: at this big plus number. It's nice.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: That was the Damian Williams got robbed of these MVP
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: in which I had Damian Williams winning the Super Bowl MVP.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: That was Yeah. That was also.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I think the sign and we had. We weren't even
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: working together yet. You hadn't reached out to me. That
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: was the That was our first season. I believe that
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: was our first season because I have the.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: Memory of coming up with you and Rebel and doing
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: it in studio. It wasn't even our studio, some like
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: random company you guys hired or let you use your studio. Yeah,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: those were good times.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: That is right.
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: God.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: That was nineteen, which means that was the pandemic, right
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: before the pandemic.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah, four Jesus.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: That was also, by the way, famously the Super Bowl
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: where Patrick Mahomes was over his rushing yardage total and
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: because he was wasting time on the kneel downs. He
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: wasn't just taking a quick kneel down. He was dropping
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: back and back and back and back. Ended up losing
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: like twenty yards off his rushing total ended up under
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the total. I also had that bet, all right, Evan Great,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I think our goal here is what is the bet
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: we can find in every single one of these? So
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: give me your next one. I think I'm sure.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure you're going to find a bet here
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: because you're already kind of on this side. But it's
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: more reinforcement. So the NF has struggled recently being a
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: favorite in Super Bowls. They're actually just one seven and
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: two ats in their last ten dating back to nineteen
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: ninety six. And we've seen recent examples Philly over KC
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: so the Rams Bengals, Rams didn't cover Carolina, was favored
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: over Denver, San Francisco against Baltimore, so recent examples. NFC
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: hasn't been great when they're laying points. Now, this one's
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: just to pick them, I get it. But now up
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: to two, so might hold there. And it's also worth
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: noting NFC haven't won three straight Super Bowls since ten
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: to twenty twelve. Right to that, it was nineteen eighty
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: five to ninety seven, so they had one two straight
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: entering last year. Lost again. But NFC just doesn't historically
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: do well in these games, at least recently.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I wonder why that is? What is our theory?
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Brady and Mahomes have been pretty uh discussed as what
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: I say.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: I would say the AFC has had the quarterbacks the
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: last twenty years, right, they had Brady Maning Mahomes. You know,
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: that's that's a nice, nice group of guys there. Where
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: the NFC has really been disappointment with our quarterbacks. I
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: mean Aaron Rodgers incredible career, one Super Bowl. Uh, you know,
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: we talk all the time about that team that the
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: Saints had, right, Sean Payton always getting them so close.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: Drew Brees got one Super Bowl. So for me as
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: an NFC fan, it's really just been the disappointment of
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: our big quarterbacks. For usually the best team the NFC
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: does not make it to the Super Bowl, right, it's
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: usually the most complete team. So shockingly, when you go
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: through the quarterbacks who have one for the NFC, it's
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: the Eli Mannings and the Nick Foles of the world.
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: It's not the sexiest names. Where the AFC, it's all
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: the names, right, it's the Brady's, like you said, the
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Brady's Mahomes. It's like the guys who really set the
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: sport apart. So that that's an interesting trend that does
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: make sense, though when you really think about it.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: We didn't even mentioned Roethlisberger, like leaving him out. It's just,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, the.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: Biggest gap of sport a difference between the winner and
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: the loser the super Bowl. The winner your world champion.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: They can never take it away from it, You'll never
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: the pile. All right.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So this actually does play to our advantage if we
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs Simon our old friend Colin Cowherd. In
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: addition to the liking to say there is a sea
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: of money out there.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: Because there's a sea of money out.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: There, Colin Cowherd likes to bet on the better quarterback
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the deeper you go into the season in the playoffs.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: To me, this is a super Bowl that is Taylor
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: made to test his bet on the best quarterback theory, right,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: because you clearly have the better quarterback in Mahomes and
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the much better team in the Niners. Last year you
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: had the better quarterback in Mahomes and the better team
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: in the Niners. You could argue that a few years ago,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: you probably had the better quarterback in Brady and the
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: better team in the Chiefs, although it was you know,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: yack and neck and potentially debatable. Yeah, but I like
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: this idea.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: What about this one? So to follow up with your
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: concept and also Collins, I use this on convinced me
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: a few weeks ago. So last twenty years, super Bowl
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: winning quarterbacks sixty twenty four and two against a spread
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: and an underdog in the playoffs. And we talked about
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: this pre ring. It's like, that doesn't matter. I don't
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: need to know those stats postering it's sixty nine percent
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: against the spread. So when you talk about Mahomes like
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: he's been a dog in all these games, we keep
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: doubting him, but he's got the experience. And it's not
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: just Mahomes that's like a sixty game sample.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: What have we said, We have said Patrick Mahomes is
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: impervious to pressure, I think on the field and off
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the field. In fact, I think he thrives it, invites it, enjoys, it,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: swims in it thinks it is the greatest elixir in
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: the history of elixirs. And I think other teams crack
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: in the face of Patrick Mahomes being able to endure
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: all those things, and that's.
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: A great Sorry, joh that's a great statuo of just
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: people like the new toy. Right, So just off to mind.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking about these past super Bowl winning quarterbacks just
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: this year, who was an underdog in the playoffs Stafford
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: three and a half dog covered. I'm thinking about Nick
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: Foles's career after we won a super Bowl the next year.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: He was a dog against the Bears. He's a dog
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: against the Saints. He covered both. So that is an
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: interesting stat of like these guys who've been in Super Bowls,
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: people kind of doubt them a little bit, and they
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: like the new toy and they make them the favorite.
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: Where it's like these guys who have been there, they
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: know what it takes, they know what it takes to
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: make these games like close and stay competitive in it.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: So I love that statu and that's something I'm gonna
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: remember for going forward, where it's like, if I have
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: a super Bowl winning quarterback that's not you know, someone
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: we don't deem as good, I'm going to back that
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: quarterback right Like it's just it doesn't happen anymore, right,
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Like we used to have the random team that you know,
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: even that Denver team with man Peyton Manning was a
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: Shelby and former self that defense carried him there. We
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: don't really get that anymore football, like you really do
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: need a guy like perty type where it's like you
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: don't need a top five quarterback. You need a guy
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: who can make big plays and big moments and carry
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: you at some point in the playoffs. So that's a
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: really interesting stat about X winning quarterbacks in the playoffs. People,
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: if they're a dog, you got to back them.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about some totals. Simon and I
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: have already said we like the total. Let's at forty
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. We like the under in this game.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: What are your secret superstats saying about the total?
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Pretty sharp, but I'll say this off the top. So
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: forty seven and a half would be the lowest Super
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Bowl total since Super Bowl fifty. That was forty three
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: and I think that was Carolina Denver. I believe it
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: was the game, and it went under. Yeap went under,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: And ironically enough, the other low totals in the last
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: fifteen years have all gone over. So it's four and
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: one to the forty seven and a half or less,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: that being the one game that went under. But I
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: think it's just worth knowing that it is the lowest
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: total in eight years, and we really have We've seen
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: fifty fours, fifty fives, fifty threes, and I think the
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: style of Kansas City really just shaped this total. So
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: Casey is fourteen and six to the under this year,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: best in the NFL. San Francisco ten to eight and
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: one to the over, one of the few teams to
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: the over. Obviously their offense pretty incredible. But yeah, I
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: think you guys are on track there. And I'll add
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: one more thing, and this just goes to my point
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: before about the line being sharp in itself. So I
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: looked it up. Indoor games, indoor super Bowls, just eleven
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: and nine to the under, really no edge, but average
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: total in those games forty seven point six, average points
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: scored in those games forty seven point eight. Jesus, it's
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: on the money.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: That is insane. I ALTI love how your brain works,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: like no one else is thinking about that. Hey, this
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: is the total. Let me see what indoor super Bowls
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: are to the under. Oh and then let me take
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: it a step further. What is the average total in
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: those games. And oh, by the way, how much of
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: those teams scoring That is literally three next levels that
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: you took it to, Evan Abrams fucking amazing, Simon. Can
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: Game Time?
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: That's right, brother. I love game Time for two reasons. First,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: they sponsor this show. Second, I actually use game Time
• 17:35
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• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Let's just say there's a run on the Chiefs and
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs become the favorite. What's what's our thinking here, Evan, So.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: This was a very fun topic before. We just saw
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: San Francisco go to minus two and now minus two
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: minus one twelve. So it feels like San Francisco at
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: least at the current moment, is heading that direction. But
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: I will answer the question. So, only three times in
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl history has the opening favorite been different than
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: the closing favorite. And it actually happened last year Chiefs
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: opened minus two, Eagles closed minus one and a half.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: The other two times it happened Super Bowl forty nine
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Patriots Seahawks, Seahawks open favorite, Patriots close favorite, and then
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: the year before that Seerral forty eight Seahawks Broncos Seahawks
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: open minus one, Broncos closed minus one and a half.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: So not something that happens a lot. It's more of
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: a also a recent thing, because I think market movement
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: is more of a recent thing. But it's another thing
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: worth noting.
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: It starts with a whistle and ends with a gun.
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: Sixty minutes of close inaction from kickoff to touchdown. This
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: is pro football the sport.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Them all the time.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about two things that are tied to each
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: other right now, experience in the Super Bowl and momentum
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: heading into the Super Bowl. Does it matter? Like, look,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: we're banking literally banking on Patrick Mahomes having been there,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: so does it matter?
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I'll answer this two different ways. The first one,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: so a quarterback that walks into the Super Bowl with
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: say two Super Bowl appearances or going into a second
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: and the other guy going into his first, doesn't really matter.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: It's basically fifty five percent forty eight percent. I really
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: just ignore it. The one that does matter is even
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: more experienced, and this would be the twenty second time
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: in superbl history where one quarterback has a two plus
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl experience gap. Those quarterbacks are thirteen and eight
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: straight up, which makes sense. You've been there more than
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: one time, you've seen the show, you've seen the dance,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: you know about the two weeks and I'd have to
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: look back. But I would also say most of those
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks with the two plus experience gap probably had a
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: head coach that had been there as well. So I
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: think those two things coincidning together probably makes up that
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: thirteen and eight stat All right, talk to me about momentum.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: This one's fascinating. So the Chiefs have covered five in
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: a row entering the Super Bowl. Casey is the seventeenth
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: team to cover at least five straight games entering the
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Now when their opponent has not covered consecutive games,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: that streaking team is five and two straight up and
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: six zero to one against the spread. Basically walking into
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: the game hot, keep rolling. Now flip it for a second.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: So the forty nine Ers, Now this is why this
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl is really unique. The forty nine Ers are
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: just the second team in the Super Bowl era to
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: make the game losing three in a row against the spread,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: remember two in the playoffs, and they also lost against
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: the rams Ats in Week eighteen. The only other team
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: to do that two thousand and seven. Two thousand and
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: eight Patriots, they lost five in a row against the
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: spread entering the Super Bowl. And of course the difference
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: their lines were if I remember fourteens thirteen seventeens leading
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: up to that game, because of how dominant they were.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: But of course that Patriots team lost to the Giants
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl. But interesting nonetheless that you just
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: have two teams kind of entering in a different circumstances.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: San Francisco only winning those playoff games by three points
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: and three points as a team who had I think
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: it was eleven plus wins of digits during the regular season.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Just something we've never seen before.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Simon, what do we think of momentum as a factor
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: in this game? Did you consider it at all in
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: the handicap?
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: I don't, just because it is two weeks in between, right,
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: Like that's that's especially in their lives, that is going
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: to feel like ten years, right, Like I can't imagine
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: and in your game and now the two weeks build
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: up to the super Bowl. But I think the biggest
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: thing is just how can these guys manage the end game?
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: And we talked about that thirty minute halftime, like that's
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: a big deal. Like a lot of guys and even
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: Eagles players talked about it. They were too much of
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: them in their own heads being up ten points on
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: Mahomes at halftime that when they came out, well, Mahomes
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: hit them in the mouth. They like stunned them a
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: little bit. They were like, Wow, this guy is not
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: going to quit, and like that's what me and you
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: are banking on right, we're banking on the Mahomes factor
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: of he plays these mental mind games. So we talk
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: all the time how football, the difference between the best
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: players on each team is so small that momentum dictates
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: so many of these games. And we literally just lived
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: through in that Lion's forty nine ers game. We talked
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: about it. It's like that fourth down drop going back
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: to the touchdown that the whole even the Lionspiders after
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: the game talked about like that changed the entire game.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: So the running joke will always be what will happen
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: in this SUPERWL Will they turn the lights off again
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: and try to get a team back into it? You
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: never know with this Super Bowl. So it is a
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: real thing in these type of games.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think there's something to it with this game,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: only because I don't think momentum is a thing where
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: it's I think it's building on success, right, And I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: think one of the most important factors in this game
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: that has probably overlooked is you handicap these based on
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: season long results. And I think the Chiefs the last
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: five weeks of the season are a much different team
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: than the Chiefs at the beginning of the season. When
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: they were incorporating all these receivers. You look the last
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: five weeks of the season, including playoffs. Storyline all season
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs was drops, drops, drops, drops, drop, Patrick
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Mahome frustrated, Travis Kelcey not playing as well. You look
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: the last five weeks, the only guy who dropped passes
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: and this was before the AFC Title game was Travis
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: kelce and Rashi Rice Marquez Valdez Scanling. Those guys were
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: catching the balls that needed to be caught. A lot
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: less frustration from the homes. Somehow this team changed the
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: wheels on the truck as they were moving in the
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: middle of the season and got themselves to a Super Bowl.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: And I say somehow facaciously because they have the greatest
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: quarterback who's ever list Not to be outrageous, Simon, I
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: want you to make Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: of the NFL part of your game day. Will you
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: be a during fifty eight Little Caesars Pizza to celebrate
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight, Simming, I gotta order online during
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: our pizza pizza pre game, which is now all day
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: on NFL game days plus Pro Bowl Sunday, and get
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Simon got
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: a new motto. What do you think about this one?
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: I just invented. If winning your bets feels right and just,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: you must be a fan of crazy Crust. However you
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning, everyone
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza portal pickup,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Grab some friends, enjoy a few slices during the game.
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: Pro football, the men who play it of a best
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: bear are discipline professionals who perform on a stage one
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: hundred yards long.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Evan, of all your stats, we have so many on here,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: which is the final one we should discuss before we
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: get out of here?
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: I feel like we have to discuss this one because
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: it is Matt Mitchell's favorite. He's pushed it to the
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: top three to four times. So it's not about Evan,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: It's about Matt Mitchell, which is really what this podcast
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: about anyway.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: So, by the way, the fact that someone else can
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: pile on Matt Mitchell with sarcasm and he cannot respond
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: is just glorious.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm here.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: You having an unnatural allegiance to losers. It does not
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: like you.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Let's talk salary cap before we get out of here.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: So the NFL is just a completely different game than
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: it was before. But the salary cap was instituted in
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: nineteen ninety four and only two times as a team
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: won the Super Bowl the quarterback taking up more than
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: thirteen percent of their cap Steve Young in nineteen ninety
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: four and Patrick Mahomes last year. Patrick Mahomes last year
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: was that I believe seventeen point two percent, seventeen percent
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: around that area. This year he's at sixteen point eight percent.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: He can do it again. Now I want to flip
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: it because this is kind of what it was last
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: year as well, So Purty can take up another story.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: He takes up only zero point three seven percent of
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers cap. Since a salary cap began
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: in ninety four, six quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: playing on their rookie contracts. And mister Mitchell would like
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: me to ask you, can you guys name any of
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: them winning Super Bowl on rookie contract?
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Simon, do you want to go first?
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: Russell Wilson one?
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Wow?
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: I know that was the easy one, though, I mean,
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: did Tommy get one?
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: Tommy Tommy?
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: Okay, okay.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: For those who don't know about Simon's close personal relationship,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: he's talking about his friend Tom Brady.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: I am my god.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Oh, Roberty, good, Roethlisberger. Wow, well done. That's another one.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Wow, Simon got three hard ones. I can't do it.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I have the script in front of you, so I
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: have the answers.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Got it.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: I'm done. I'm done. I'm gonna beat up our last
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: two minutes trying to do this.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes twenty nineteen, Eli Manning in two thousand and seven. Oh,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: and this one's trickier. Doesn't really count, does Carson Wentz
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: twenty seventeen.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Ha.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Pretty good company for brock Purty to join if you
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: can join it right, Evan.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: That I'd probably say their team might be the best
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: of the bunch if I look very quickly through that.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: So that's one that's kind of interesting as well.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Evan, great job, Thanks for joining. As always, you will
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: be on the rest of the podcasts throughout the end
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl season. Catch the Favorites live on YouTube,
• 28:36
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• 28:40
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