Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Trump Didn’t Win Any Converts During The State Of The Union + A Financial Planner's Brutally Honest Take on Trump's Economy

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Full Episode - Trump Didn’t Win Any Converts During The State Of The Union + A Financial Planner's Brutally Honest Take on Trump's Economy · The Chuck ToddCast

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1:51
Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the check podcast.
1:57
Speaker 1: Let me give you a quick rundown. I have just
1:59
Speaker 1: come off the air of a three hour live stream
2:04
Speaker 1: of a watch with broadcast that I did with my
2:07
Speaker 1: friend Chrys Saliza in collaboration with YouTube and c Span,
2:11
Speaker 1: where we got to do live running commentary as the
2:15
Speaker 1: President was speaking, as well as with the Democratic response.
2:18
Speaker 1: Was a unique thing. Was essentially doing what I always
2:20
Speaker 1: do for a stud of the Union but instead of
2:24
Speaker 1: just job owning with a colleague as we watch before
2:27
Speaker 1: we go on the air to get my thirty second
2:30
Speaker 1: take ready to go post State of the Union, we
2:34
Speaker 1: just sort of went along with it on running commentary.
2:36
Speaker 1: So I will admit it is in some ways I've
2:42
Speaker 1: never been You're in some ways very informed about the
2:45
Speaker 1: speech itself. But I'll give you a rundown, so a
2:46
Speaker 1: little bit of that. I want to go through a
2:50
Speaker 1: few interesting different type of poll that my friend Dante Cheni,
2:55
Speaker 1: who runs the Americans Communities Project, which is a project
2:58
Speaker 1: that is housed inside of Michigan's University, some interesting findings
3:02
Speaker 1: that he got in his recent survey sort of what
3:08
Speaker 1: real populism would look like if you actually pursued a
3:11
Speaker 1: populist agenda, and by definition, that means things that are
3:18
Speaker 1: where there's more than fifty percent of the public is
3:19
Speaker 1: in favor of and it's across the board whether you're
3:23
Speaker 1: an urban or rural America. So I want to get
3:25
Speaker 1: through that. My guest today is a gentleman by the
3:29
Speaker 1: name of Paul Auslander, and what it really is is
3:33
Speaker 1: it's sort of how financial planners are dealing with the
3:37
Speaker 1: Trump economy and how to try to help people navigate
3:41
Speaker 1: what is an unstable and uncertain economic environment. On one handed, things,
3:46
Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's this. AI is certainly serving
3:50
Speaker 1: as one thing. But the government's role the shaking the
3:54
Speaker 1: confidence of the independence of the Fed. And hey, look,
3:57
Speaker 1: plenty of you are near retirement and trying to figure out, well,
4:00
Speaker 1: how do I manage this? And it ain't easy. So
4:04
Speaker 1: I just thought it would be interesting. And I have
4:05
Speaker 1: no I have no no skin in the game with
4:08
Speaker 1: this gentleman at all. It was somebody I've been reading
4:13
Speaker 1: and following for a while, so we will have that.
4:17
Speaker 1: I have my top my new top five list of
4:19
Speaker 1: Senate of potential Senate flips. But I'm also going to
4:21
Speaker 1: use it to update a few a few things and
4:25
Speaker 1: some few competitive Senate races, including sort of what I
4:28
Speaker 1: have you know, I think I'm I've certainly added Minnesota
4:32
Speaker 1: to my campaign watch list. I think Michelle Tafoya in particular,
4:36
Speaker 1: is going to make that more competitive. I think in
4:39
Speaker 1: a year like this, if Trump is unpopular, it's going
4:41
Speaker 1: to be hard for Republican to win a light blue
4:43
Speaker 1: state like Minnesota. But Republicans have put another seat in play.
4:49
Speaker 1: But Democrats also appear to have strengthened their hand a
4:54
Speaker 1: bit since the last time I did this in both
4:56
Speaker 1: Alaska and Maine. So with that though, let's get started
5:00
Speaker 1: about the state of the Union. So I'm going to
5:07
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be one of those
5:09
Speaker 1: speeches where our fragmented ecosystem. You know, if you are
5:13
Speaker 1: deep in the magabase, you're going to love everything you saw,
5:18
Speaker 1: and it is in the base of the party is
5:21
Speaker 1: going to love the own the Libs moments that the President,
5:24
Speaker 1: who was a bit low energy for most of the night,
5:29
Speaker 1: and as Chris would point out, whenever he's reading from
5:33
Speaker 1: a teleprompter, his energy is down. When he is just riffing,
5:37
Speaker 1: he has more energy than when he's concentrating and trying
5:39
Speaker 1: to read the teleprompter. And this was a night he
5:42
Speaker 1: stayed with the teleprompter because there was a lot of stagecraft,
5:45
Speaker 1: since this was a lot of metals that he chose
5:47
Speaker 1: to he chose to hang out. But there was a
5:53
Speaker 1: you know, going into the speech in theory, there were
5:56
Speaker 1: some opportunities for him. Right this is there is a
5:59
Speaker 1: lot of skepticism that this is a healthy economy. You see,
6:03
Speaker 1: independents are souring. There's some questions about what is he
6:06
Speaker 1: up to with Iran, what's going on with Ice, So
6:11
Speaker 1: there was an opportunity to reset, opportunity for clarity on
6:14
Speaker 1: certain issues, and potentially an opportunity to introduce some new ideas.
6:20
Speaker 1: So what the speech I think mostly was was more
6:24
Speaker 1: of trying to just celebrate him a little bit and
6:28
Speaker 1: sort of celebrate the stuff that animates is based the most.
6:35
Speaker 1: I thought starting with immigration and with the border was
6:40
Speaker 1: the smartest way to start, because it is the one
6:42
Speaker 1: accomplishment where he's got the largest number of folks and
6:47
Speaker 1: the electorate who agree it is an accomplishment. Now all
6:51
Speaker 1: of his other accomplishment he touts is not necessarily in
6:54
Speaker 1: something that the general public agrees with. I thought his
6:57
Speaker 1: tone in the economy couldn't have been worse if you're
7:00
Speaker 1: a Republican on the ballot in twenty twenty six, because
7:05
Speaker 1: he was very dismissive of the idea that this is
7:08
Speaker 1: not a healthy economy. Essentially, it's trying to do the
7:11
Speaker 1: Jedi mind Trigg. This is an amazing economy. It's the
7:14
Speaker 1: greatest economy ever. It's going like gangbusters. Never before has
7:18
Speaker 1: anybody seen right, and when you hear the never before
7:21
Speaker 1: that should be a trigger like, oh, he's making something up, right.
7:25
Speaker 1: There's a couple of trigger phrases when he says when
7:28
Speaker 1: he repeats dialogue and quotes somebody supposedly talking to him,
7:32
Speaker 1: and it begins with the word sir, you know it's
7:35
Speaker 1: something that's never been said, and that he made up
7:37
Speaker 1: the anecdote. The other trigger phrase is never before seen,
7:41
Speaker 1: you know. And I think on the economy he really
7:46
Speaker 1: whift and then you really noticed it, not at when
7:50
Speaker 1: you heard the Democratic response by abadil Spenberg, who I
7:53
Speaker 1: think did as good of a job as you can
7:55
Speaker 1: in that situation. Generally those are really well crafted speech,
8:00
Speaker 1: and I'll get to that in a few minutes, but
8:03
Speaker 1: in general, I think he really whipt in the economy.
8:09
Speaker 1: The interesting decision he made was to and this isn't
8:13
Speaker 1: the worst idea if you're unpopular, which is you hide
8:17
Speaker 1: behind everybody else, you try to get some reflected glory.
8:21
Speaker 1: It started, of course with the Olympic hockey team, and
8:25
Speaker 1: boy he sat. I mean, I think we went a
8:27
Speaker 1: good ten minutes with the Olympic hockey team at the
8:30
Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in fact he it is
8:32
Speaker 1: where he began what turned into his own little awards show.
8:37
Speaker 1: I mean, this was the Kennedy I think he gave
8:40
Speaker 1: out more awards at that State of the Union than
8:42
Speaker 1: he did when he hosted the Kennedy Excuse me, the
8:44
Speaker 1: Trump Kennedy Center Honors, I guess is what he's going
8:47
Speaker 1: to refer to it now. But it started with giving
8:50
Speaker 1: the Presidential Medal of Freedom immediately, which let me say
8:56
Speaker 1: a word about these awards, because these are incredibly these
9:00
Speaker 1: are amazing honors to receive the Medal of Honor in
9:05
Speaker 1: particular right the highest award you can receive as an
9:09
Speaker 1: enlisted member of the military. And he handed up too.
9:13
Speaker 1: Last night, he handed out a purple heart, which not
9:20
Speaker 1: to pick at knits here, it's not one hundred percent
9:22
Speaker 1: clear that if you weren't in combat that you should
9:26
Speaker 1: get a purple heart. That it was a different type
9:28
Speaker 1: of award. But he wanted to give up. He wanted
9:30
Speaker 1: to give an award to the National guardsmen that lost
9:32
Speaker 1: their life and the National guardsmen who survived the attack,
9:40
Speaker 1: and of course he did the present. Here's the thing
9:44
Speaker 1: about it is, these are incredible honors. The ceremonies where
9:48
Speaker 1: these are normal, these sort of the traditional ceremonies for
9:51
Speaker 1: Medal of Honor where you spend a good ten minutes
9:55
Speaker 1: getting to know the recipient, getting to know the battle itself,
9:58
Speaker 1: and he he's sort of short circuit. I mean, he
10:00
Speaker 1: told the longer story in the Venezuela story, but he
10:05
Speaker 1: kind of short shrifted the Korean War veteran a little bit.
10:10
Speaker 1: And again, I don't want to take away these are
10:12
Speaker 1: incredible honors for these for these gentlemen. And you know,
10:18
Speaker 1: by the way, with a son in Dallas, now, I
10:20
Speaker 1: think I've gotten to see the Medal of Honor Museum
10:23
Speaker 1: and it's amazing something. By the way, it's a gift
10:25
Speaker 1: of the Jones family, Jerry Jones, Charlotte Jones, Stephen Jones.
10:29
Speaker 1: It is a terrific I love the fact that they
10:32
Speaker 1: put it in the complex with AT and T Stadium,
10:36
Speaker 1: because look, you know, sometimes museums as destinations don't always
10:40
Speaker 1: get gawkers. But if you're going to be hanging out
10:43
Speaker 1: and tailgating for eight hours at a Cowboys game, I'd
10:46
Speaker 1: love for you to take thirty minutes take your son
10:48
Speaker 1: through the Medal of Honor Museum. So I think it's
10:50
Speaker 1: a I like that I like, you know, let's take
10:54
Speaker 1: let's nothing wrong with using a football game to teach
10:57
Speaker 1: a little bit about American history, right, And the most
11:02
Speaker 1: moving ceremonies I've witnessed are these medal of honor ceremonies
11:05
Speaker 1: that presidents do. And I've gone to quite a few
11:08
Speaker 1: of them, so I just because I've experienced so many
11:12
Speaker 1: of them, and there's just such important. Look, I really
11:16
Speaker 1: hope the White House still does the still lets these
11:21
Speaker 1: gentlemen invite families, still has the White House celebration. I mean,
11:25
Speaker 1: there's you know, that's part of the experience for the honoree.
11:30
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to presume that they're going to
11:32
Speaker 1: short shircitt that. I mean, if anything, I think the
11:36
Speaker 1: President loves himself a good event at the White House
11:38
Speaker 1: and he loves playing hosts, so I assume he will.
11:42
Speaker 1: But this was a little there was a I don't
11:46
Speaker 1: think this is going to play well with there's a
11:48
Speaker 1: bit gimmicky to sort of overload it. I mean, we've
11:50
Speaker 1: taken something that began with Reagan State of the Unions,
11:53
Speaker 1: where he would start to single out folks and it
11:57
Speaker 1: and every president, you know, like everything, any good idea
12:00
Speaker 1: comes contagious. And it's in some ways trump like everything, right.
12:08
Speaker 1: He the words moderation has never been something Donald Trump
12:13
Speaker 1: is about it has agreed to. He doesn't moderate his temperament,
12:16
Speaker 1: he doesn't moderate his politics, he doesn't moderate his ego.
12:19
Speaker 1: He doesn't moderate, right, That's just not who he is.
12:24
Speaker 1: But this felt a little, a little gimmicky, like we
12:27
Speaker 1: were at an awards show. But again, I you know,
12:32
Speaker 1: I think the base loved it. I think the base
12:34
Speaker 1: was fine with it. This is who they have come
12:37
Speaker 1: to know and love and there and this is what
12:40
Speaker 1: they do with Donald Trump. And I think it certainly
12:45
Speaker 1: if you're his minders here and you wanted to keep
12:48
Speaker 1: him from totally you know, he he did hold his
12:52
Speaker 1: tongue a bit on the Supreme Court called it a
12:55
Speaker 1: disappointing ruling, but he didn't personally attack any justices. I
12:59
Speaker 1: guess we can call that a small win. The only
13:05
Speaker 1: time he ever animated is when he sort of you know,
13:08
Speaker 1: attacking Democrats, which again is the State of the Union
13:13
Speaker 1: is a night where a president has an opportunity to
13:15
Speaker 1: be president for all Americans, or you can choose to
13:18
Speaker 1: be a political candidate. He chose to be a party
13:21
Speaker 1: leader rather than the president. So but again it will
13:27
Speaker 1: mask you know, his feedback loop. He will hear not
13:30
Speaker 1: a lot of good things. And members of Congress on
13:32
Speaker 1: the Republican side of the aisle when they the base,
13:36
Speaker 1: they'll hear good things from the base about that speech.
13:39
Speaker 1: So it will it might sort of keep some of
13:41
Speaker 1: them in check. But these are the same members that
13:44
Speaker 1: are in swing districts. Actually, the ones in swing districts,
13:47
Speaker 1: most of them are bailing. They're not running again. But
13:51
Speaker 1: I think it's masking the problem because he didn't speak
13:54
Speaker 1: to the middle of the electorate. And again I go back,
13:58
Speaker 1: it's the democratic response, which was, like I said, incredibly
14:03
Speaker 1: well crafted. She started with messaging first and then she
14:07
Speaker 1: introduced herself. She sort of the message was simple, you know,
14:12
Speaker 1: is he looking out for you? Is he looking out
14:14
Speaker 1: for your for It was a very simple message. It
14:17
Speaker 1: was straightforward. It wasn't I think what's interesting are the
14:23
Speaker 1: issues that because trust me, these democratic responses are very
14:27
Speaker 1: much they're a bit micromanaged. Any of these responses when
14:31
Speaker 1: I say democratic in this case, a democratic response, when
14:34
Speaker 1: it's a Republican response, there's a lot of cooks in
14:37
Speaker 1: the kitchen as far as messaging is concerned, like please
14:40
Speaker 1: mention this issue, don't mention this issue, et cetera. Right,
14:43
Speaker 1: And in many ways it is sort of what the
14:48
Speaker 1: person giving the response, particularly an election year, is doing,
14:52
Speaker 1: is basically this is what party leaders are saying, these
14:54
Speaker 1: are the issues we're comfortable running on, by virtue of
14:58
Speaker 1: the person they pick, and also the issue that are
15:00
Speaker 1: thrown in there. I think the reason you pick somebody
15:05
Speaker 1: who has just come off the trail is that you
15:07
Speaker 1: know she's been on the front line. She's been out
15:09
Speaker 1: there talking to people. She's, in theory right, been in
15:12
Speaker 1: front of the voters more recently than any member of
15:15
Speaker 1: Congress has been in front of voters. But I thought
15:19
Speaker 1: she acquitted herself quite well. I thought it was, you know,
15:23
Speaker 1: in the different settings you picked. This is, believe it
15:25
Speaker 1: or not, the fourth Virginian in the twenty first century
15:27
Speaker 1: that has given the response. Three Democrats Jim Webb, Abigail Spamberger,
15:32
Speaker 1: and Tim Kaine, and one Republican Bob McDonald. Glenn Young
15:37
Speaker 1: Cain never ended up giving one. H I think there
15:42
Speaker 1: maybe we can be mildly surprised that he never made
15:45
Speaker 1: the cut there, But it was one of those where
15:51
Speaker 1: you're like, okay, if you're just doing the focus group,
15:54
Speaker 1: I promise you she'd focus group better with Independence than
15:58
Speaker 1: the President did, because I can just tell you what
16:01
Speaker 1: issues have been popping up among Independence and where they
16:04
Speaker 1: sour the most. So I expect, you know, these these days,
16:11
Speaker 1: the state of the unions don't have a lot of legs.
16:14
Speaker 1: And because the President didn't introduce many new ideas, the biggest,
16:17
Speaker 1: sort of the freshest idea is the getting the AI
16:23
Speaker 1: companies to essentially find their own sources of power so
16:26
Speaker 1: that it does not fall onto you and I to
16:32
Speaker 1: see our power bills go up because of these AI
16:34
Speaker 1: data centers. That is one of those that's got bipartisan appeal,
16:38
Speaker 1: and it's almost like a table stakes type of issue
16:40
Speaker 1: to be for. I think everybody that's one of those.
16:43
Speaker 1: You're not going to get much disagreement on that, except
16:46
Speaker 1: from perhaps the AI companies who don't want to have
16:48
Speaker 1: to So, like everything, the devil will be in the
16:52
Speaker 1: details on this one and we'll see if it's something
16:53
Speaker 1: that can that can actually get through Congress. If I
17:00
Speaker 1: were to say the most surprising thing I heard of
17:05
Speaker 1: substance was this rationale he was putting out there for Iran.
17:13
Speaker 1: He at one point talked about, first of all, this
17:18
Speaker 1: is where the contradiction comes in. This is where Iran
17:21
Speaker 1: feels like this is a this he could be opening
17:25
Speaker 1: a Pandora's box. So on the one hand, and he says,
17:28
Speaker 1: we obliterated their nuclear arsenal, and everything they were doing,
17:32
Speaker 1: we obliterated it. He said that in the speech. He
17:35
Speaker 1: also said, if they will just promise they'll never seek
17:38
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon, then maybe we can do a deal.
17:39
Speaker 1: But they can't make that promise. And then he said, look,
17:42
Speaker 1: this regime they're making, they already have ballistic missiles that
17:46
Speaker 1: can hit Europe and they'll soon have ballistic missiles that
17:49
Speaker 1: can hit the United States. That sounded like a pretext.
17:56
Speaker 1: This it rang This is saying, hey, Saddam has weapons
18:00
Speaker 1: of mass destruction, to say Iran could have ballistic missiles
18:05
Speaker 1: that hit the United States. North Korea already has it.
18:09
Speaker 1: So if you're going after Iran, so are we going
18:14
Speaker 1: to North Korean acts? But I don't think this is
18:18
Speaker 1: going to play well with the more isolationist wing of
18:21
Speaker 1: his base, let alone the exhausted majority that isn't crazy
18:25
Speaker 1: about an adventure and a military adventure gone wrong here,
18:31
Speaker 1: and I will say I do think the president is
18:36
Speaker 1: feeling is oats on some of these, on some of
18:40
Speaker 1: these international adventures. Right. First of all, it goes back
18:44
Speaker 1: to his first term. A lot of people, including close
18:46
Speaker 1: aids of his, warned him that assassinating Solamani could cause
18:52
Speaker 1: all sorts of problems. Had minimal pushback. Then the bombing
18:58
Speaker 1: Iran's nuclear side was going to cause wider could cause
19:02
Speaker 1: wider problems. It didn't, So ditto and Maduro seemed to
19:10
Speaker 1: go smoothly. Although that's another one where he is no longer.
19:14
Speaker 1: He didn't once talk about democracy in Venezuela. It didn't
19:18
Speaker 1: he There was not even a fig leaf. The entire
19:21
Speaker 1: Venezuela conversation in the State of the Union was about
19:23
Speaker 1: the oil and about Yes, he talked about her, the
19:27
Speaker 1: new president, releasing the political prisoner of it. She's illegally
19:33
Speaker 1: in office. This was a this was a stolen election,
19:39
Speaker 1: as monitored by the entire free world. All of that
19:45
Speaker 1: last election was rigged. So she is not even arguably
19:50
Speaker 1: shouldn't be in office. But we are not talking about
19:54
Speaker 1: any sort of democratic replacement yet. And he talks her
19:59
Speaker 1: as if this is, you know, some sort of incredible relationship.
20:03
Speaker 1: And at the same time he talked about the thugs
20:06
Speaker 1: of Maduro and what that horrible regime was doing. You're
20:09
Speaker 1: still working with the Maduro regime, mister president, and you
20:14
Speaker 1: don't seem to be that interested in promoting democracy. I
20:17
Speaker 1: know that's not what Marco Rubio wants. Look, he got
20:20
Speaker 1: the president to do Venezuela because of the oil. We
20:24
Speaker 1: know this, but I'm curious how he's going to get
20:28
Speaker 1: the president to start to care about freedom and democracy
20:31
Speaker 1: in Venezuela because he did not talk about it at all.
20:36
Speaker 1: And again, now back to Iran. That was I mean,
20:42
Speaker 1: you know, this is the same guy that criticized Bush
20:46
Speaker 1: and Cheney for Iraq in Afghanistan. This is the same
20:49
Speaker 1: guy that said that Democrats were itching to start a
20:51
Speaker 1: war with Iran, and he has now had the most
20:54
Speaker 1: expansive pretext. I mean, Lindsey Graham was ecstatic to hear
21:00
Speaker 1: that ballistic missiles could be a pretext to attack a ron.
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Speaker 2: I'll be honest, Chuck.
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24:26
Speaker 1: So look, it is hard to imagine we were that
24:30
Speaker 1: we would somehow not hit Iran after amassing this entire
24:35
Speaker 1: the the arsenal that we have amassed in the Middle East.
24:40
Speaker 1: But that's one one of the things I was looking
24:42
Speaker 1: for to see what was going to be. How is
24:46
Speaker 1: he going to talk about Iran? And look, I'm I'm
24:52
Speaker 1: skeptical that that, uh, because I you know, what, how
24:58
Speaker 1: does this? What do we do next week? And what
25:01
Speaker 1: are we bombing? Are we trying to prevent them from
25:03
Speaker 1: getting a nuclear WEAPONO? Are we doing regime change? And
25:07
Speaker 1: he seemed to sort of kind of offer up potentially
25:10
Speaker 1: in all of the above. Right, he talked about the
25:14
Speaker 1: brutality that the regime made against the protesters. So I
25:20
Speaker 1: think there's I think how he put around out there
25:23
Speaker 1: he left open. And then what I think is a
25:26
Speaker 1: just a huge faux pas and is probably going to
25:30
Speaker 1: cause the President of Mexico some political problems is that
25:35
Speaker 1: he basically took credit. You know, it was very careful, right,
25:40
Speaker 1: There's no doubt the US intelligence helped the Mexican government
25:45
Speaker 1: get this cartel leader, but the president claimed credit for
25:49
Speaker 1: it at the State of the Union, which of course
25:52
Speaker 1: is what many people may think already in Mexico. But
26:00
Speaker 1: it's important that this is seen as Mexican led if
26:05
Speaker 1: you want to continue to have the will of the
26:08
Speaker 1: people on this one, and I think to to sort
26:12
Speaker 1: of and again he's I joke, I'd love to play
26:15
Speaker 1: poker with Donald Trump, because I'm not you know, he's
26:18
Speaker 1: he tells, he tells you everything. He eventually tells you everything.
26:25
Speaker 1: And I have no doubt we played a huge role
26:28
Speaker 1: in pressuring the Mexican government to do that. But to
26:33
Speaker 1: keep the Mexican government credible, you can't do what he
26:36
Speaker 1: did there, and that was you know, this is this
26:40
Speaker 1: is why you know, our partnerships and our allies are
26:45
Speaker 1: not feeling like allies these days. They feel like that
26:48
Speaker 1: Trump will sell them out, throw them under the bus,
26:50
Speaker 1: if it just to get credit or whatever it is.
26:53
Speaker 1: But that that is one of those where I have
26:56
Speaker 1: a feeling there's going to be there. There's some adjuta
27:03
Speaker 1: and I'm sure Marco Rubio is having to calm things
27:06
Speaker 1: down a little bit with his Mexican counterparts on that one.
27:11
Speaker 1: But it was a long speech. And one thing we've
27:14
Speaker 1: learned from these speeches these days is that the people
27:17
Speaker 1: who watch are usually the true believers. There are a
27:20
Speaker 1: handful of hate watchers, and you know, the people in
27:24
Speaker 1: the middle. Well, you have about fifteen to twenty minutes
27:27
Speaker 1: at the start of the speech to talk to them.
27:29
Speaker 1: And I think when you start to look at how
27:30
Speaker 1: he did the speech. Yes, he celebrated the gold medal,
27:33
Speaker 1: that was great, but did he move the needle to
27:36
Speaker 1: answer the public's criticism about is he focused enough on
27:39
Speaker 1: the economy? Has he focused enough on bringing down costs?
27:43
Speaker 1: And the polls indicate no, by a lot, not by
27:48
Speaker 1: a little. And that speech tonight, it wasn't the reset
27:54
Speaker 1: that I know some Republicans wanted to see. Wasn't a disaster,
27:58
Speaker 1: and the base is going to love it. You know
28:00
Speaker 1: what's worse is if your base were disappointed and we're frustrated.
28:05
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of there's a lot of unknowns here,
28:09
Speaker 1: you know, Like I said, Iran could not play well.
28:11
Speaker 1: He may have opened up a problem with Mexico on
28:15
Speaker 1: that front. And it's also just as likely that it
28:22
Speaker 1: just it just you know, he's he's sort of Charlie
28:29
Speaker 1: Brown's the Adults and a Charlie Brown cartoon, where outside
28:33
Speaker 1: of his base, many Americans now here won't wah wah
28:36
Speaker 1: wah wah wah. Right, there is an exhaustion from him
28:40
Speaker 1: and from the chaos and from the constant churn. That's
28:44
Speaker 1: why he didn't win reelection the first time. It's why
28:47
Speaker 1: he lost the midterms the first time. You know what's
28:50
Speaker 1: interesting about there is a pattern here with Donald Trump
28:52
Speaker 1: the politician. When he's at when he's making the case
28:57
Speaker 1: against somebody in power, he's pretty half decent politicians twenty sixteen,
29:03
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. When he's having to defend his policies
29:07
Speaker 1: or make the case for himself, he struggles twenty eighteen, midterms,
29:12
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and now we're seeing it again in twenty
29:14
Speaker 1: twenty six. Look, it's a lot easier to be against
29:18
Speaker 1: something than to run on something. And we know Donald
29:23
Speaker 1: Trump would rather run against someone or something than have
29:27
Speaker 1: to defend and run on something. We got a taste
29:32
Speaker 1: of that in that speech tonight. But if this was design,
29:36
Speaker 1: if this was supposed to fix the problems going into
29:39
Speaker 1: the midterm and give the Republicans a message to run on,
29:43
Speaker 1: I think in that sense this speech came up short.
29:48
Speaker 1: And look it is you know, one of the things
29:52
Speaker 1: about the moment we're in, and about whether this week
30:00
Speaker 1: is titled the sixty percent Country, and why neither party
30:03
Speaker 1: can reach it. And it's based on what my friend
30:06
Speaker 1: Dante Cheney's been doing with the American Communities Project, And
30:09
Speaker 1: what he does is he splits the electorate up by
30:11
Speaker 1: county type. It goes through fifteen different counties. But he
30:15
Speaker 1: does a survey and he looks at it that way
30:17
Speaker 1: rather than looking at it through red and blue and independent.
30:21
Speaker 1: You look at it sort of where people live. And
30:23
Speaker 1: what's interesting is what actually unites Americans and whether they
30:28
Speaker 1: live in the rural rural counties or where they live
30:31
Speaker 1: in urban counties. One of the things that unites the
30:36
Speaker 1: majority of the Americans is this large majorities of pose
30:43
Speaker 1: cutting social programs to lower taxes. Only about a quarter
30:46
Speaker 1: of Americans support that trade off. Right, Roughly three quarters
30:49
Speaker 1: believe the government should maintain some form of safety net.
30:52
Speaker 1: So we're pro safety net. Okay, that is that is
30:56
Speaker 1: that is a large that is the consensus. We're pro
30:58
Speaker 1: safety net. We're going to have disagreements to how big
31:00
Speaker 1: it should be, how many people should qualify, but in general,
31:04
Speaker 1: if we can, the country's for it. Nearly two thirds.
31:10
Speaker 1: No matter where part of the country you survey, nearly
31:13
Speaker 1: two thirds believe the economy is rigged to advantage the
31:15
Speaker 1: rich and powerful. What did Donald Trump do in the
31:17
Speaker 1: State of the Union to push back on that concept?
31:20
Speaker 1: And if anything, Abigail's Bamberger that was kind of a
31:23
Speaker 1: punchline in hers. And this is something that unites left,
31:27
Speaker 1: right and center, this feeling that this is and this
31:30
Speaker 1: is the quote Epstein class campaign messaging that you've seen
31:35
Speaker 1: Rocanna and John ossoff use. Where hey, are there rules?
31:38
Speaker 1: You know, rich people live by one set of the
31:40
Speaker 1: rules and the rest of us have to live by
31:41
Speaker 1: another set of rules. Strong majorities believe the media is
31:48
Speaker 1: more interested in making money than telling the truth. Well,
31:51
Speaker 1: we see it now all over the place, whether it's
31:53
Speaker 1: legacy cable channels who are just trying to tell you
31:57
Speaker 1: what you want to hear in order to desperately get
31:59
Speaker 1: that or you have these influencers, right, people who just
32:02
Speaker 1: tell you what you want to hear, just sort of
32:05
Speaker 1: dunk on the other side and fire up the base
32:11
Speaker 1: without actually being honest and telling you how this may
32:15
Speaker 1: have worked, this may not have worked. And roughly two thirds,
32:19
Speaker 1: no matter where you live in this country, agree that
32:21
Speaker 1: Americans have more in common than we're led to believe.
32:24
Speaker 1: The point is imagine putting that together, you could create
32:27
Speaker 1: a sixty percent government majority, protect the safety net, fix
32:30
Speaker 1: an economy that's tilted upward, break the grip of concentrated power,
32:35
Speaker 1: repair an information ecosystem people don't trust, and restore accountability
32:38
Speaker 1: and government that's not friends positions. This to me is
32:42
Speaker 1: a baseline, and it's an easy platform to run on it,
32:46
Speaker 1: especially if you're an independent candidate. Now, when you start
32:51
Speaker 1: to ask questions that include race and culture, that's where
32:54
Speaker 1: you start to see the polarization. And that's what you
32:56
Speaker 1: just starting to see the dividing lines. And this is
33:00
Speaker 1: where I think I don't know whether any member of
33:04
Speaker 1: the either of the two major parties can credibly make
33:07
Speaker 1: a case to the middle of the electorate. Right. One
33:09
Speaker 1: of the most stunning poll numbers I shared with you,
33:11
Speaker 1: I think in the last episode, in the Washington Post
33:13
Speaker 1: poll that showed Trump's numbers in terrible shape, Democrats were
33:19
Speaker 1: not benefiting. When you were asking what's the most important problem?
33:23
Speaker 1: Who do you trust to handle the most important problems?
33:25
Speaker 1: It was literally a tie. The third said Trump, a
33:27
Speaker 1: third said Democrats, and the third said neither. And which
33:33
Speaker 1: just look at the results, right, We've been voting that
33:36
Speaker 1: way for a while. We know who we don't want.
33:39
Speaker 1: Every time a party gets power the next election, we
33:42
Speaker 1: vote them out, whether it's you know, I mean we
33:45
Speaker 1: have voted out I mean. I'll put it this way.
33:48
Speaker 1: The party in control of the House has been voted
33:50
Speaker 1: out this century in twenty oh six, twenty ten, eighteen,
33:53
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two, and we may add a fifth time,
33:56
Speaker 1: the fifth time in the first twenty five years of
33:59
Speaker 1: this of this century, the Senate majority has slipped in
34:02
Speaker 1: oh six, fourteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. Probably
34:06
Speaker 1: only wanted three chance of flipping this time. And of
34:09
Speaker 1: course the presidency has flipped in twenty sixteen right, twenty
34:16
Speaker 1: oh eight, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four.
34:19
Speaker 1: So each of these chambers, the House is sentate and
34:21
Speaker 1: the president has all flipped at least four times where
34:24
Speaker 1: the voters have just wanted the other party right. And
34:27
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily they're buying what the other party is selling.
34:30
Speaker 1: They're just not buying what the other party was doing
34:33
Speaker 1: in power. And now that we've done this so much,
34:37
Speaker 1: the party out of power is not getting the same
34:39
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt that they would get previously, and
34:43
Speaker 1: it's been diminishing benefit of the doubt. Right Trump had
34:46
Speaker 1: this highest benefit of the doubt, and after sixteen he
34:49
Speaker 1: had a much lower benefit of the doubt going into
34:51
Speaker 1: twenty four Right Republicans had the highest benefit of the
34:54
Speaker 1: doubt after twenty ten as congressional majorities. Then it would
34:57
Speaker 1: diminish even as they succeeded in twenty fourteen. Did it
35:00
Speaker 1: with the Democrats They had the highest arguably after twenty
35:03
Speaker 1: eight and even when they got it back in twenty
35:05
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty twenty, they didn't have the same level
35:10
Speaker 1: on that front. So I have a feeling that a
35:15
Speaker 1: minute an elected official, minute anybody puts a party ID
35:19
Speaker 1: label next to their name that says deer R. It
35:22
Speaker 1: means you have two thirds of the country that are
35:24
Speaker 1: going to be skeptical to what you have to say,
35:27
Speaker 1: and we have a quarter century of elections to prove it.
35:31
Speaker 1: And yet you see there are some clear actual populist
35:36
Speaker 1: issues you could be running on that would be majoritarian
35:41
Speaker 1: issues fifty five to sixty five percent supporting issues. When
35:48
Speaker 1: you start to look at it, it's actually the FDR coalition, Right,
35:52
Speaker 1: the New Deal united urban workers, rural farmers, industrial labor,
35:55
Speaker 1: and large swads in the middle class around a single
35:58
Speaker 1: shared premise would stabilize capitalism and make it work for
36:02
Speaker 1: ordinary people. Now, he made a bunch of compromises that
36:06
Speaker 1: look that still remained controversial, but he stayed out of
36:09
Speaker 1: race and culture for the most part because he wanted
36:11
Speaker 1: to stick to the economy and the democracy, and it
36:16
Speaker 1: allowed him to essentially make big changes because he was
36:23
Speaker 1: pushing issues that had the largest number of voters in
36:28
Speaker 1: support of them. And that's what we haven't had this century.
36:34
Speaker 1: We haven't had a president who aimed for the sixty percent.
36:37
Speaker 1: Nobody's going to win sixty percent of the ballot box,
36:40
Speaker 1: But when I was growing up, presidents wanted to have
36:42
Speaker 1: sixty percent job writings. And basically we've only had like
36:47
Speaker 1: a couple of accidental moments this century where we've had
36:49
Speaker 1: presidents get over sixty Obama for a brief period and
36:53
Speaker 1: w right after nine to eleven. But we haven't had
36:54
Speaker 1: it really at all beyond a couple of like blips
36:58
Speaker 1: and those two presidencies. It was a regular feature of
37:02
Speaker 1: Clinton's towards the end of Reagan's towards the end not
37:07
Speaker 1: at any of the presidents of the seventies. I will
37:10
Speaker 1: grant you that. But when you strive for sixty, you're
37:14
Speaker 1: gonna win over the middle. And I tell you I
37:19
Speaker 1: look at it this way. I think the lack of
37:20
Speaker 1: credibility that both parties right now have for being for
37:24
Speaker 1: being able to deliver on the problems they claim they
37:27
Speaker 1: can fix, on the fixes to the problems that are
37:30
Speaker 1: out there, this is why I think there's a moment
37:33
Speaker 1: here for, you know, to shed the party label. And
37:37
Speaker 1: when you look at when you look at these cross currents,
37:40
Speaker 1: in many ways, the more credible salesperson in this country
37:44
Speaker 1: is likely to be somebody who left one of the
37:47
Speaker 1: two parties and declared their independence. And if you want
37:50
Speaker 1: credibility to try to get your message out there, in
37:53
Speaker 1: some ways, not being associated with one of the two
37:55
Speaker 1: major parties right now might weirdly be an advantage. Look,
38:01
Speaker 1: there's no doubt I think the Democrats are poised to
38:03
Speaker 1: have a really strong midterm year because you don't have
38:06
Speaker 1: to be for anything in a midterm. You can just
38:09
Speaker 1: be against. The question is and look, and if you
38:15
Speaker 1: look at the Democratic response by Governor Spamburger, she sort
38:19
Speaker 1: of showed you you can. You don't really have to
38:22
Speaker 1: be prescriptive to have a pretty what comes across as
38:26
Speaker 1: a robust agenda and a robust platform to win office. Obviously,
38:34
Speaker 1: the real challenge is going to be the next presidential
38:36
Speaker 1: in twenty eight. But I just look at all this
38:39
Speaker 1: survey downa and you see there's an opportunity there for
38:44
Speaker 1: an outsider to sort of to essentially go class and
38:51
Speaker 1: dump the culture right, a good old fashioned class politics
38:55
Speaker 1: here the middle and working class versus the rich and elite.
39:03
Speaker 1: That's a majority that's fairly easy to put together if
39:06
Speaker 1: you're single mindedly focused on it. It's sitting there to
39:12
Speaker 1: be to be rallied. The opportunity is there. These poll
39:19
Speaker 1: numbers from the American Communities Project show it. The poll
39:23
Speaker 1: numbers that you see in the most recent Washington Post
39:24
Speaker 1: episodes show it. It's there. The question is, you know,
39:28
Speaker 1: are there are there any current elected officials to see
39:31
Speaker 1: the moment and say, you know what, I'm gonna shit,
39:34
Speaker 1: I'm gonna declare my independence from talking points and declare
39:37
Speaker 1: my independence from from from you know, being forced into
39:42
Speaker 1: a blue box or a red box. The country just
39:47
Speaker 1: wants some stability and some common sense and cut down
39:53
Speaker 1: the chaos and cut down the divisiveness. That's all they wanted.
39:57
Speaker 1: That's all they wanted from Joe Biden. Right, That's why
40:01
Speaker 1: he ended up, That's why he did win in twenty twenty.
40:05
Speaker 1: And in some ways, Donald Trump is conducting a presidency
40:08
Speaker 1: a bit more chaotic than his first one, because he's
40:13
Speaker 1: already got lower approval ratings than he did in that
40:17
Speaker 1: first in some ways the first term. You know, it's funny.
40:21
Speaker 1: These swing voters that he won over in twenty twenty four,
40:25
Speaker 1: including younger voters and Latino voters, they weren't emphatic Trump supporters.
40:30
Speaker 1: They just decided they didn't. They wanted to change direction
40:33
Speaker 1: from what Biden and Harris did, and Trump thought they
40:37
Speaker 1: became permanent members of his coalition. Well, they have left,
40:41
Speaker 1: big time, big lee, as the President might say, And
40:46
Speaker 1: it's because I believe they thought they were voting for
40:50
Speaker 1: first term Trump and instead they got a whole different
40:53
Speaker 1: kind of Donald Trump, one that's a little less, a
40:56
Speaker 1: little more unfiltered, and even more unrestrained than he felt
41:04
Speaker 1: in the first term. So ultimately, I think the best
41:09
Speaker 1: time to gauge, right, be careful in the State of
41:11
Speaker 1: the Union polling. By the way, if you see any
41:13
Speaker 1: among speech watchers, well, among speech watchers, it's going to
41:17
Speaker 1: skew towards the president. It's the polling in a week
41:22
Speaker 1: that will tell us if this had any impact. I'm skeptical,
41:27
Speaker 1: but I'm a data guy, so I'll wait to see
41:29
Speaker 1: the data. All right, Let's sneak at a break here
41:34
Speaker 1: when we come back my conversation with Paul Oslander. He's
41:38
Speaker 1: a sea bridge and he's any any basically advises people personal,
41:47
Speaker 1: people in the private you know, the personal private and
41:50
Speaker 1: equity fund or any of that stuff. But it's some straightforward,
41:55
Speaker 1: you know, brutally honest advice. How do you navigate, how
41:58
Speaker 1: do you plan for your own RETI hirement? How do
42:01
Speaker 1: you plan with savings with this chaotic Trump economy. It's
42:04
Speaker 1: not easy. And this guy's on the front lines having
42:07
Speaker 1: to give advice every day of the week, whether it's
42:09
Speaker 1: when do you take social security? All of those things.
42:12
Speaker 1: And look, politics isn't have been infused into everything, including
42:18
Speaker 1: people's personal savings, plans for retirement, in college, et cetera.
42:24
Speaker 1: So with that, let's sneak in a break. We'll come
42:26
Speaker 1: back with my conversation and then I'll see on the
42:28
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44:02
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44:06
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44:08
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44:11
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,
44:15
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44:18
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45:27
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if
45:31
Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Well, sometimes I like to
45:37
Speaker 1: have a guest that you both will inform all of us,
45:40
Speaker 1: not just you the audience, but it also gives me
45:44
Speaker 1: a chance to find out how are people thinking about
45:48
Speaker 1: this current era of economic uncertainty, whether it's inflation, market volatility,
45:55
Speaker 1: questions about the future of social security, the national debt.
45:59
Speaker 1: So what is financial stability look like? You know, people
46:02
Speaker 1: my age and above, we're sitting here in between retirement,
46:07
Speaker 1: in our peak earning years. We're constantly worried about this. Well,
46:11
Speaker 1: my guest today runs a firm that advises individuals navigating
46:15
Speaker 1: that uncertainty, Paul Auslander. So in many ways he's a
46:19
Speaker 1: front row seat to at least to the conversation that
46:22
Speaker 1: he's hearing from everyday investors that are reacting to this moment.
46:26
Speaker 1: This is not, by the way, I don't want you
46:28
Speaker 1: to think he's not a sponsor. I'm not pitching him
46:31
Speaker 1: to be a sponsor. He's literally this is a conversation
46:36
Speaker 1: to try to hear what are investors hearing out there
46:40
Speaker 1: from every day. We constantly know what the big private
46:43
Speaker 1: equity people want to hear. What about the rest of us,
46:48
Speaker 1: because in many ways that will tell us what this
46:51
Speaker 1: economy looks like over the next couple of years. What
46:54
Speaker 1: are the behaviors happening, What are the questions every day
46:57
Speaker 1: investors are asking of experts like Paul, and he's been
47:02
Speaker 1: doing this quite a long time and he has seen
47:06
Speaker 1: ups and down. So Paul, welcome to the podcast.
47:09
Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck, I appreciate it. Thanks for having me.
47:11
Speaker 1: Well, look, let's do a little Like I said, this
47:13
Speaker 1: is not a meant to be a sales pitch or sponsorship.
47:17
Speaker 1: This is not anything like that. But give me the
47:21
Speaker 1: give me a little bit of your origin story. How
47:23
Speaker 1: did you end up in this position and why do
47:26
Speaker 1: you do this? And say not run some other business
47:30
Speaker 1: or something like that.
47:32
Speaker 2: Well, it was the cecuitous route. You know. I didn't
47:34
Speaker 2: know what I wanted to do in school. I was
47:37
Speaker 2: besides trying to stay in school, I was a struggling musician,
47:40
Speaker 2: so I kept dropping out and going to play with
47:42
Speaker 2: bands and then go back and do a semester, and
47:45
Speaker 2: I finally lit into something that I liked. What keyboards,
47:49
Speaker 2: piano mainly.
47:50
Speaker 1: Yeah.
47:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I've played a little bit of everything, but
47:54
Speaker 2: the piano I probably spent more time on. That same
47:56
Speaker 2: mother was cracking the which she played as well. But
48:02
Speaker 2: I found I had a bit of a feeling for
48:05
Speaker 2: numbers and still didn't know what I was going to
48:07
Speaker 2: do when I got out of school and just stumbled,
48:10
Speaker 2: literally stumbled into this profession that was very nascent at
48:13
Speaker 2: the time, financial planning, And I got my certification as
48:17
Speaker 2: a financial planner, which was at that time a relatively
48:20
Speaker 2: new designation. Financial planning at that point was really being
48:23
Speaker 2: done by insurance agents.
48:24
Speaker 1: It's sort of late seventies, early eighties, not to exactly.
48:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, got the CFP in eighty seven, but yeah, I
48:31
Speaker 2: started in nineteen eighty So built up a practice and
48:35
Speaker 2: a business, and I do it to this day. I
48:38
Speaker 2: mean I could have retired a few years ago. I
48:40
Speaker 2: love it, I enjoy it. It's now become mainstream. Got
48:43
Speaker 2: involved here in the state of Florida, with the help
48:47
Speaker 2: of our CFO Alex Sing, to push the concept of
48:49
Speaker 2: financial literacy for students, because I think it's amazing how
48:53
Speaker 2: many kids don't know anything about finance when they come out.
48:57
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's just been a labor of love. Over
48:59
Speaker 2: the year, I've kind of migrated into what they call
49:02
Speaker 2: the family office face, where I'm dealing with wealthier and
49:05
Speaker 2: wealthier people who aren't sure exactly what they're going to do.
49:07
Speaker 2: And a lot of them happened to come down here
49:09
Speaker 2: from Florida from my native New York. So I had
49:12
Speaker 2: a nice.
49:12
Speaker 1: They moved to my home state of Florida for all
49:14
Speaker 1: these things. Yeah, what is it about? Is there something
49:16
Speaker 1: in the tax code? I don't know, I've never heard
49:18
Speaker 1: of it.
49:19
Speaker 2: Now it's taxes and weather. Frankly though, it's getting a
49:22
Speaker 2: little different now. You know, it's legal to carry a
49:24
Speaker 2: gun into publics now, open carry. So some of us
49:27
Speaker 2: are going, you know, let's let's not ruin a good thing.
49:30
Speaker 1: So, you know, it's funny you say that. I often
49:33
Speaker 1: wonder when is sort of this, when is it gone
49:36
Speaker 1: too far? This sort of you know, one person's argument
49:40
Speaker 1: for freedom it actually impedes upon the freedom of others right,
49:45
Speaker 1: freedom of security and things like that. And I think
49:49
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for that moment in Florida. I think we
49:52
Speaker 1: right now, it's a we've been doing big swings. We
49:55
Speaker 1: haven't had the big swings. Probably do sometimes, Probably going
50:00
Speaker 1: to have to do with property insurance ultimately, but we'll see,
50:03
Speaker 1: I think. So. Yeah, Look, my father was a tried
50:08
Speaker 1: to get into this space, spent a decade in this space,
50:11
Speaker 1: and passed away before ever found a chance. Whether this
50:17
Speaker 1: was going to succeed or fail. But you're right, it
50:18
Speaker 1: was a It was sort of a new thing in
50:21
Speaker 1: the eight and so I, you know, I learned little
50:24
Speaker 1: things like Option Friday, which was always a crazy day
50:29
Speaker 1: in my dad's life. And I got to know option
50:31
Speaker 1: Friday as a teenager in a negative light. But that's
50:34
Speaker 1: a whole nother story.
50:37
Speaker 2: But what I to your point, there were a lot
50:40
Speaker 2: of stockbrokers, there, a lot of insurance folks that wanted
50:43
Speaker 2: to give a higher level of service, to try to
50:45
Speaker 2: help their clients, you know, not just sell them a product.
50:48
Speaker 2: That was really the genesis.
50:50
Speaker 1: No, there was, and you saw and it was it was.
50:53
Speaker 1: It was funny how the you know. I remember my
50:57
Speaker 1: father used a G. Edwards at the time as sort
50:59
Speaker 1: of his home base this and eventually, I think AG
51:03
Speaker 1: Edwards and your merrilllynches said, wait a minute, we got
51:05
Speaker 1: all these independent operators using you know, we're missing out
51:09
Speaker 1: on something here, you know. And it seems like that
51:13
Speaker 1: push and pull exists to this day. Right. You've got
51:15
Speaker 1: your big institutions, you know, they want your money and
51:19
Speaker 1: they say they can help you plan for retirement, and
51:24
Speaker 1: then you still have the individuals out there going no, no, no, no, No,
51:27
Speaker 1: I can give you more personalized service.
51:30
Speaker 2: Is that? And then the line of demarcation really is
51:33
Speaker 2: fiduciary service versus non fiduciary service. And I think that's
51:37
Speaker 2: the big buzzword going forward. I think that's the differentiator
51:41
Speaker 2: in the profession now, folks that are offering a service
51:44
Speaker 2: where they have to be accountable for their advice as
51:47
Speaker 2: opposed to folks that don't, because it is it's a
51:50
Speaker 2: massive responsibility. Folks have worked all their life, and then
51:53
Speaker 2: if they get with the wrong person or the wrong
51:54
Speaker 2: firm and that money gets taken away from them in
51:58
Speaker 2: some way, shape or form, it's non recoverable.
52:02
Speaker 1: You know, part of your job is to under You've
52:04
Speaker 1: got to understand politics, at least enough to know, you know,
52:09
Speaker 1: what you should be investing in, what you shouldn't be
52:10
Speaker 1: investing in, or what you should be hedging and what
52:13
Speaker 1: you shouldn't be hedging. I mean, in fact, my financial
52:15
Speaker 1: advisor and I get together as much for him to
52:18
Speaker 1: pick my brain as I do to pick his. When
52:21
Speaker 1: we have this, we have almost you know, about twice
52:24
Speaker 1: a month we try to have breakfast where we're trying
52:27
Speaker 1: you know, he's trying to like well, how long do
52:29
Speaker 1: you think this shutdown is going to last? Or if
52:31
Speaker 1: we do this? What you know? And so I do
52:35
Speaker 1: think people in your space can tell us something about
52:39
Speaker 1: the public's behavior, because ultimately it's the public's behavior here
52:43
Speaker 1: that's going to dictate the health of this economy and
52:47
Speaker 1: the health of our democracy.
52:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's never been so stark. By the way,
52:52
Speaker 2: in the old days, there were you know, three things
52:54
Speaker 2: you wouldn't talk about, and one of them were politics,
52:57
Speaker 2: right and so, and but today it's the first thing
53:03
Speaker 2: that comes up. And I see it particularly where I am.
53:06
Speaker 2: I'm in a little town halfway between Clearwater and Saint
53:08
Speaker 2: Petersburg called bel Air, which is which is a pretty
53:12
Speaker 2: conservative area. And if you don't answer those initial questions right,
53:16
Speaker 2: you're not getting them. As a client, I've worked really
53:18
Speaker 2: hard to try to keep a middle of the road approach,
53:21
Speaker 2: not only in my interviews and my panels, but with
53:23
Speaker 2: the clients, because there's certain certain facts in the economy
53:27
Speaker 2: that don't change with the politics.
53:28
Speaker 1: Right. Well, that's always you know, Look, this is the
53:31
Speaker 1: world that I always say, I'm looking at this dispassionately
53:35
Speaker 1: as best I can, and I understand if I'm not
53:37
Speaker 1: a cheerleader. You think I'm an opponent, and it's like, no,
53:40
Speaker 1: I'm just trying. I'm just being realistic. I'm just covering
53:44
Speaker 1: politics as it is, not as I wish or were right.
53:47
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, So you know, I try to counsel clients
53:51
Speaker 2: into spending less time on one of the networks that
53:54
Speaker 2: either infuriates them or makes them cheer, and more about
53:58
Speaker 2: understanding why the companies are doing well and what their
54:01
Speaker 2: risk tolerance is and how much they should diversify. As
54:03
Speaker 2: an example, for ten years, nobody in our profession put
54:07
Speaker 2: any money overseas. Last year the European index has doubled,
54:10
Speaker 2: the S and P five hunderd, giving President Trump's some
54:14
Speaker 2: credit for this. He's forced the European companies countries to
54:17
Speaker 2: start investing in their defense, which in turns become very profitable.
54:21
Speaker 2: So you're seeing changes, and there's an example of the
54:24
Speaker 2: politics impacting it, but overall, general economic principles still apply.
54:29
Speaker 2: You know, the whole the whole notion is to spend
54:32
Speaker 2: less than your earn and save something.
54:34
Speaker 1: Right, So let's talk. I am curious, what are the
54:38
Speaker 1: political concerned? What are the politically charged questions? You get
54:48
Speaker 1: when it comes to investment strategy, what would you say
54:52
Speaker 1: the threat? You know, I certainly have three or four
54:54
Speaker 1: in my head, But before I get to mine, what
54:57
Speaker 1: are some of the questions you have clients asking you
55:00
Speaker 1: in order to potentially find a hedge against a current
55:05
Speaker 1: situation or not. What are some of the I.
55:08
Speaker 2: Mean, the first primary thing that comes up is tax policy,
55:11
Speaker 2: and we hear that regularly, and that of course impacts
55:14
Speaker 2: a lot of the way in which a client receives
55:16
Speaker 2: their money, and so we talk about that a lot.
55:19
Speaker 2: And tax policy has been fairly favorable under this administration
55:23
Speaker 2: for investors. You could argue that perhaps for other people
55:27
Speaker 2: not so much. And secondly, and to your point earlier,
55:30
Speaker 2: it's really a K shaped economy in many ways, the
55:33
Speaker 2: haves are getting wealthier and the haves not. There are
55:36
Speaker 2: many are on the edge, and so that's a bigger,
55:39
Speaker 2: longer discussion and a question. But for the folks that
55:42
Speaker 2: are on the top side of that K, tax policy
55:45
Speaker 2: is a big deal, both income tax and estate tax.
55:47
Speaker 2: As that comes up later in the conversation, you have
55:51
Speaker 2: conversations about should we be spending money helping other countries
55:55
Speaker 2: spend for themselves? Where is our money spent here immigration.
56:00
Speaker 2: I have a number of restaurant owners who are die
56:03
Speaker 2: hard conservative Republicans who have lost seventy eighty percent of
56:07
Speaker 2: their stats. That's an interesting conversation. So they because of
56:11
Speaker 2: immigration policy, right, So I mean it comes up, but
56:15
Speaker 2: you try to guide them back to the middle. And
56:18
Speaker 2: I think I've done it right, but you never know.
56:20
Speaker 2: I mean, I admire you and your financial advisor for
56:23
Speaker 2: sitting a couple of times a month and going over
56:26
Speaker 2: things because besides talking the politics, it's good to have
56:29
Speaker 2: that contact, right. And one of the things I try
56:31
Speaker 2: to do is go see the clients or you know
56:33
Speaker 2: today in the age of zoom, do this with clients
56:36
Speaker 2: so that we can talk about the things that they
56:38
Speaker 2: might be worrying about. You know, it impacts people's retirement
56:40
Speaker 2: ages too. You know, a lot of folks were aiming
56:43
Speaker 2: pre COVID to retire already. A lot of them have
56:46
Speaker 2: decided to stay on a little longer for a few reasons,
56:49
Speaker 2: including a couple of market downturns where their four oh
56:52
Speaker 2: one K was really their tool one K for a
56:54
Speaker 2: couple of years.
56:55
Speaker 1: It's a good line I think you did there. Let
56:59
Speaker 1: me start with a little financial humor. Let me start
57:03
Speaker 1: with the issue that that I am planning for, but
57:09
Speaker 1: I'm curious how much it comes up. And you know,
57:11
Speaker 1: I've always you know, I will. Gen X is you know,
57:16
Speaker 1: has to pay the bills of the boomers. We've had
57:18
Speaker 1: to pay the bills of the boomers for some time now.
57:21
Speaker 1: And the biggest bill is yet to come. And that
57:24
Speaker 1: bill is going to be Social Security, and there is
57:27
Speaker 1: a built in cut coming. You can just feel it.
57:30
Speaker 1: It's going to be. They'll always pay benefits, but there'll
57:33
Speaker 1: be a cut in how big, you know, in what
57:37
Speaker 1: you're you know, we'll probably get seventy five percent of
57:39
Speaker 1: what we do, not one hundred percent of what we're doing.
57:42
Speaker 1: We'll be the first generation because we're the smallest millennials,
57:45
Speaker 1: and you know it's all about millennials and Gen Z
57:48
Speaker 1: and every that's always been the problem for Gen X.
57:51
Speaker 1: But I am planning and assuming not nothing on Social Security,
57:56
Speaker 1: but a less than what people have been counting the
58:00
Speaker 1: currently A do you advise clients that way that are
58:04
Speaker 1: in my age bracket, in that Gen X age bracket,
58:06
Speaker 1: So we're essentially fifty to sixty four right now, right
58:10
Speaker 1: you know, we're born in sixty five, So we're just
58:13
Speaker 1: that that's our that's our age range. Are you telling
58:18
Speaker 1: people to plan for that or not?
58:22
Speaker 2: So there's a couple of answers to that. Number One,
58:24
Speaker 2: I don't subscribe to the theory that we're in as
58:28
Speaker 2: disastrous shape as many people believe we are if we
58:31
Speaker 2: keep it currently the way it is. It's amazing what
58:33
Speaker 2: the math does if you push retirement out a couple
58:36
Speaker 2: of years. So if you take it off of sixty
58:38
Speaker 2: seven and take it to sixty nine, suddenly that trust
58:41
Speaker 2: fund lasts a heck of a lot longer. That's number one.
58:43
Speaker 2: Number Two, there's means testing, right, So forget about you
58:47
Speaker 2: and I and all the mortals in the world. Talk
58:48
Speaker 2: about all the people that are now populating Miami, right,
58:51
Speaker 2: they wouldn't be and I'm talking about Indian you know,
58:55
Speaker 2: the areas of Miami which are attracting the Mark Zuckerberg's
58:58
Speaker 2: and other people of the world.
58:59
Speaker 1: Right that again, literally the private islands that the general
59:02
Speaker 1: public of Miami aren't allowed on.
59:04
Speaker 2: But you get to right, right, But so they say
59:07
Speaker 2: they wouldn't be eligible, or they wouldn't get it, or
59:09
Speaker 2: they'd have to pay a higher tax. But I do
59:12
Speaker 2: caution people your age that you have to be aware
59:16
Speaker 2: that something might change. I don't not to disagree too much,
59:21
Speaker 2: but I don't think a seventy five percent of the
59:24
Speaker 2: one hundred percent that you would get is realistic. I
59:26
Speaker 2: think that's political suicide in this country. I think whether
59:29
Speaker 2: it's Republican or Democrats, I don't know the reason.
59:31
Speaker 1: I take your point, and it has been if there
59:34
Speaker 1: was ever a generation you could probably punish without as
59:38
Speaker 1: much blowback, it's the smallest one alive, which is definitely.
59:42
Speaker 2: What they're going what I see happening. And I think
59:45
Speaker 2: it's the generation behind you. It's your children, it's my
59:50
Speaker 2: children be a little bit older than yours.
59:51
Speaker 1: It's the millennial millennium. My kids are gen Z. I
59:54
Speaker 1: guess it's your kids are millennial, right.
59:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And I see them having this, them having
59:59
Speaker 2: the biggest impact, right, But they're already not planning for it.
1:00:02
Speaker 2: They're thinking to themselves, it's not going to be there.
1:00:05
Speaker 2: They don't trust this system anyway.
1:00:06
Speaker 1: And they by the way, that was how it's funny
1:00:09
Speaker 1: you say that. My wife and I discussed this all
1:00:11
Speaker 1: the time when the thirty year old versions of us
1:00:16
Speaker 1: were constantly messaged that, and so that was the message
1:00:20
Speaker 1: of the eighties and nineties. So yeah, we actually we
1:00:24
Speaker 1: actually planned that way.
1:00:26
Speaker 2: I also think what's going to happen is the same
1:00:28
Speaker 2: evolution that it cared or you might call it a
1:00:30
Speaker 2: revolution that occurred and defined benefit pension plans, where a
1:00:34
Speaker 2: GM before had a pension plan that you had for
1:00:37
Speaker 2: many years and then you got an income that got
1:00:39
Speaker 2: converted to a four to oh one k where you
1:00:41
Speaker 2: ended up doing your own investing and it was up
1:00:43
Speaker 2: to you as to how your retirement plan did. I
1:00:45
Speaker 2: think that's going to happen to Social Security. Many administrations
1:00:49
Speaker 2: have tried to privatize it. It hasn't happened. I think
1:00:52
Speaker 2: that's more likely for a generation back, in other words,
1:00:56
Speaker 2: younger people, for it.
1:00:57
Speaker 1: To have probably for you know, the only way you
1:00:59
Speaker 1: pull that off, it's got to start almost like you know,
1:01:02
Speaker 1: only those under thirty five or something like that, right.
1:01:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, And I think we have the beginnings of
1:01:06
Speaker 2: that with Brad Gersner and others who have come up
1:01:09
Speaker 2: with these from America concepts that President Trump has put
1:01:12
Speaker 2: his name on, which again I think that's that's going
1:01:15
Speaker 2: to be a start.
1:01:16
Speaker 1: Bad He put his name on it because he polarizes
1:01:18
Speaker 1: something that might might.
1:01:20
Speaker 2: Maybe be a good idea for people.
1:01:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, so you're you're it's look, we can
1:01:28
Speaker 1: you know, do you remember the Notch babies.
1:01:32
Speaker 2: I can't say that I do.
1:01:34
Speaker 1: So there was a small period of time where we
1:01:36
Speaker 1: had this small group of Americans born we like made
1:01:40
Speaker 1: this decision to like cut their social Security and it
1:01:42
Speaker 1: was for this like group of people, and every year
1:01:45
Speaker 1: Congress had to like do the Notch baby fix to
1:01:49
Speaker 1: make sure they got their whole The point is it
1:01:52
Speaker 1: was it was one of the early attempts to try
1:01:55
Speaker 1: to reign in the growth of Social Security so that
1:01:57
Speaker 1: it didn't overwhelm the federal budget. And of course you
1:02:00
Speaker 1: are not wrong. It was politically just so even it
1:02:03
Speaker 1: was a small group of people, the experiment was so unpopular.
1:02:07
Speaker 1: So in some ways, to support your pushback on me,
1:02:10
Speaker 1: I give you Notch babies, and and.
1:02:13
Speaker 2: Thank you for telling me that. I'm a political junkie
1:02:15
Speaker 2: and I'm in the financial business, and I had not
1:02:17
Speaker 2: heard of it, so I figured, i'd I.
1:02:19
Speaker 1: Think all the Notch babies are dead. I think that's why,
1:02:22
Speaker 1: all right, So that a lot of I doubt you
1:02:24
Speaker 1: have a client left that that was would be a
1:02:27
Speaker 1: quote unquote nottch baby. But if every serves there was
1:02:31
Speaker 1: this this small So that's certainly one thing I think about.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: Now let me let me go with another direction here.
1:02:41
Speaker 1: There is money to be made off of bad Trump
1:02:43
Speaker 1: policies that you know is going to go away when
1:02:48
Speaker 1: Trump goes away. But it feels icky. How do you
1:02:53
Speaker 1: How do you deal with that?
1:02:56
Speaker 2: I love how you express it. You try to stay
1:03:00
Speaker 2: agnostic about those things. Right in the end of the day.
1:03:03
Speaker 2: My job is to try to make sure that the
1:03:05
Speaker 2: client has what they need and what they've goed for,
1:03:08
Speaker 2: and in the case of larger family offices, to protect
1:03:12
Speaker 2: the family wealth that the founder or the matriarch or
1:03:15
Speaker 2: patriarch created. If I sense that it's it's become a
1:03:20
Speaker 2: political discussion and that they're really in favor of something,
1:03:23
Speaker 2: or in the case of a lot of my liberal
1:03:27
Speaker 2: clients who have a lot of money and will absolutely
1:03:30
Speaker 2: not go near anything that smells of this administration, we'll
1:03:36
Speaker 2: work with it, you know. I mean that's part of
1:03:38
Speaker 2: the discovery process.
1:03:39
Speaker 1: And look, I look at it as crypto in general,
1:03:42
Speaker 1: like I feel like, you know what we saw right,
1:03:46
Speaker 1: is there's a in some ways crypto has become a
1:03:51
Speaker 1: special interest and they spent a lot of money to
1:03:55
Speaker 1: when they decided that that one party wasn't going to
1:03:59
Speaker 1: give them what they wanted, and they said, all right,
1:04:00
Speaker 1: well we're going to invest all this and they you know,
1:04:03
Speaker 1: they're they're doing this the old fashioned way in Washington,
1:04:06
Speaker 1: which is they're buying supporters. You know, they're throwing money
1:04:10
Speaker 1: at and they're trying to buy bipartisan support. I mean,
1:04:13
Speaker 1: they're using a blueprint that has been used in the
1:04:16
Speaker 1: modern era for basically one hundred years. So I bring
1:04:20
Speaker 1: that up because crypto feels like something you can make
1:04:22
Speaker 1: money on now. But there's another administration and probably when
1:04:27
Speaker 1: the pitchforks come and the electorate changes a little bit,
1:04:30
Speaker 1: or the elected official makeup changes a little bit, some
1:04:33
Speaker 1: serious regulation is coming. If I were in your shoes,
1:04:38
Speaker 1: I'd be trying to figure out how do you both
1:04:41
Speaker 1: help a client make money in that moment and hedge
1:04:43
Speaker 1: against it down the road. Again, as you said, take
1:04:46
Speaker 1: your own morals and ethics aside a minute. This is
1:04:49
Speaker 1: the reality. You know that crypto's going to get some
1:04:52
Speaker 1: value short term, and you know more regulation is coming
1:04:56
Speaker 1: in the medium term.
1:04:59
Speaker 2: How are you great exit?
1:05:01
Speaker 1: How do you manage that? How do you advise? You know,
1:05:03
Speaker 1: obviously you're being very careful. Look you sort of the
1:05:06
Speaker 1: client's got a passionate position on it. You deal with
1:05:09
Speaker 1: it one way. But if they're sort of neutral, I've
1:05:12
Speaker 1: come to you like, look, you know, is there a
1:05:17
Speaker 1: would you say, is there money to be made short
1:05:19
Speaker 1: term in here that's worth the risk? And b I
1:05:23
Speaker 1: do know more financial regulation is coming. How do we
1:05:25
Speaker 1: prepare for it?
1:05:26
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure about the second one, but the
1:05:28
Speaker 2: first one is a pretty easy answer. You know, Crypto
1:05:31
Speaker 2: was around before Trump hit the scene, and Crypto in
1:05:34
Speaker 2: this whole blockchain is a revolution that's occurring and will
1:05:38
Speaker 2: continue to occur way past Donald Trump and whoever his
1:05:41
Speaker 2: successor is. Also, we have a history of not putting
1:05:44
Speaker 2: in regulations after we've decided not to put in the
1:05:47
Speaker 2: regulations or change regulations later on. We had a very
1:05:51
Speaker 2: conservative SEC chair prior to the one that's in now.
1:05:55
Speaker 2: This SEC chair that's in now is much more allowed
1:06:00
Speaker 2: for these types of things. I think Crypto the train
1:06:03
Speaker 2: has already left the station, right. There are many, many
1:06:06
Speaker 2: large organizations that have considerable exposure to crypto. I think
1:06:11
Speaker 2: crypto goes down before it goes up again. But this
1:06:14
Speaker 2: is a trade. This is not a store of value
1:06:17
Speaker 2: like gold has taken that position. It's a trade and
1:06:20
Speaker 2: people are trading it like any asset class. It happens
1:06:23
Speaker 2: to be a newer asset class. I think the great
1:06:25
Speaker 2: part about our markets is time will tell if it's
1:06:28
Speaker 2: a good asset class or not. And it's going to
1:06:30
Speaker 2: be one of those things where buyer beware.
1:06:40
Speaker 1: Is there an example in the past that you could
1:06:42
Speaker 1: come up with that was seen as a good asset,
1:06:45
Speaker 1: good commodity that turned out to be wrong, and eventually
1:06:49
Speaker 1: the market told you it was wrong.
1:06:54
Speaker 2: You know, I really can't. I think I would. I
1:06:59
Speaker 2: would think about that, and if I've come up with it,
1:07:02
Speaker 2: send you an email.
1:07:03
Speaker 1: After this, let me throw one out you because the
1:07:06
Speaker 1: closest And I'm curious if you think this works because
1:07:09
Speaker 1: I was young when it happened when the Hunt Brothers
1:07:11
Speaker 1: tried to corner the silver mark silver. Yeah, yeah, and
1:07:15
Speaker 1: they were basically trying to raise the floor of value
1:07:18
Speaker 1: on silver because they were long on silver, right. I mean,
1:07:21
Speaker 1: I may have my specific throng here, and it came
1:07:26
Speaker 1: crashing down on them, and there was a part of
1:07:28
Speaker 1: that that I wondered if there was a lesson to
1:07:30
Speaker 1: be learned.
1:07:31
Speaker 2: Well, the family went seventy The family lost seventy five
1:07:35
Speaker 2: percent of its net worth in that example. So that
1:07:38
Speaker 2: was that was the number one punishment, right, I mean,
1:07:41
Speaker 2: that's a good example. But silver wasn't the evil person there.
1:07:44
Speaker 2: Silver wasn't wasn't the issue. The issue was the way
1:07:48
Speaker 2: in which the traders were trying to corner the market
1:07:51
Speaker 2: and do it. And if you look at silver now, right,
1:07:54
Speaker 2: silver and gold have had the best run they've had
1:07:55
Speaker 2: years in the last in the last year, it's coming out.
1:07:58
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that silver and gold are moving up
1:08:00
Speaker 1: like this and as they are behaving like the sort
1:08:04
Speaker 1: of safe haven that people want to treat them as.
1:08:08
Speaker 1: But there is not a single crypto asset that is
1:08:11
Speaker 1: behaving in that way.
1:08:12
Speaker 2: I think. I think, well, there are two different assets, right,
1:08:16
Speaker 2: I think silver and gold. You have central banks buying
1:08:19
Speaker 2: silver and gold. Right, you don't have central banks necessarily
1:08:21
Speaker 2: buying crypto. You have still central banks buying.
1:08:24
Speaker 1: To be shocked when don't be shocked when arms get
1:08:28
Speaker 1: twisted to force that in order to prop up the
1:08:30
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin.
1:08:31
Speaker 2: But yeah, but I think no. But I think I
1:08:35
Speaker 2: think there's a general fear out there that you know,
1:08:38
Speaker 2: uncertainty causes a lot of concern, right, and there's a
1:08:41
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty in the economy. Part of that has
1:08:44
Speaker 2: been President Trump and the Trumps, the terrorists being going
1:08:47
Speaker 2: one way, one one direction, and then another direction. So
1:08:51
Speaker 2: I think that's part of it. And I think when
1:08:53
Speaker 2: people are really nervous, plus you add an all time
1:08:56
Speaker 2: high to the stock market, I think you have people
1:08:58
Speaker 2: buying these assets as a safe haven. I don't think
1:09:02
Speaker 2: it's any more complicated than that. It's also been a
1:09:05
Speaker 2: trade frankly, particularly silver and gold, not so much where
1:09:09
Speaker 2: people the traders are just having a good time with
1:09:11
Speaker 2: something that's always been kind of stale and now suddenly
1:09:14
Speaker 2: came to life.
1:09:16
Speaker 1: So it's sort of one of those is it's getting
1:09:19
Speaker 1: a little action, then it gets marketed or it almost
1:09:21
Speaker 1: goes viral.
1:09:22
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, and I think social media
1:09:25
Speaker 2: helps set along. I think that's the whole memes stock idea.
1:09:28
Speaker 2: And I don't necessarily see that that's not investing in
1:09:30
Speaker 2: that wealth management we talked about earlier. In this discussion
1:09:33
Speaker 2: that's really just trades and people just playing the momentum.
1:09:40
Speaker 1: You say, you deal with a lot of family offices.
1:09:42
Speaker 1: How many of them are trying to hedge by moving
1:09:46
Speaker 1: money out of the United States.
1:09:49
Speaker 2: They're moving money, well, they're concerned about the dollar, so
1:09:53
Speaker 2: to that extent, they're moving some money out of state,
1:09:57
Speaker 2: out of the States, but there's no equal safety net
1:10:01
Speaker 2: anywhere else than the dollar to them. So more of
1:10:05
Speaker 2: them are moving it into real estate if they want
1:10:07
Speaker 2: to get out of the market, or gold. And that's
1:10:09
Speaker 2: we're seeing quite a bit of that, quite a bit
1:10:11
Speaker 2: of that now. The international markets they've warmed to that
1:10:15
Speaker 2: because they've seen the money that's being spent in Europe
1:10:18
Speaker 2: now on not only defense but on infrastructury building. One
1:10:21
Speaker 2: of these nasty little facts up there is you can
1:10:23
Speaker 2: no longer drive a Porsche at one hundred and ten
1:10:24
Speaker 2: miles an hour on the Autobahn because the Germans have
1:10:27
Speaker 2: been so austere that they haven't fixed their potholes on
1:10:29
Speaker 2: the autobon so and this became really came to light
1:10:33
Speaker 2: when NATO was talking about moving tanks over certain bridges
1:10:36
Speaker 2: that had to cross Germany to Poland. The bridges wouldn't
1:10:38
Speaker 2: hold the tanks. So this is an example of money
1:10:41
Speaker 2: being spent. Part of it is you kind of shake
1:10:44
Speaker 2: your head and go, how could they let that happen?
1:10:46
Speaker 2: That's the post Merkel years. But the other side of it,
1:10:49
Speaker 2: and it's really an issue, but a positive issue from investment,
1:10:53
Speaker 2: is that these companies that do that type of work
1:10:56
Speaker 2: will be profitable for a while. You could say the
1:10:58
Speaker 2: same thing in certain emerging markets where they're going to
1:11:01
Speaker 2: do pretty well. And the family offices have been ahead
1:11:03
Speaker 2: of that game. They've been going in that direction for
1:11:06
Speaker 2: the better part of a year. And some of that
1:11:08
Speaker 2: has been political, right. Some of them have recognized that
1:11:11
Speaker 2: Trump's going to push them to do things that they
1:11:13
Speaker 2: didn't want to do the European countries, and they're responding
1:11:17
Speaker 2: and doing it. And family offices didn't get that wealthy
1:11:20
Speaker 2: by being stupid. They recognize that there's an opportunity there.
1:11:25
Speaker 1: The family office. You know, for those that are not
1:11:28
Speaker 1: familiar with that language, it's usually it's inherited. It's usually
1:11:32
Speaker 1: second at least second generation, third generation sort of wealth
1:11:36
Speaker 1: right that is now.
1:11:38
Speaker 2: For interrupting, but now more first generation because of the
1:11:42
Speaker 2: tech wealth right, so a Zuckerberg has a family office
1:11:45
Speaker 2: or Bezos and all of them. But to your point,
1:11:48
Speaker 2: Kennedy's didn't put a family office together until Joseph Kennedy
1:11:52
Speaker 2: was getting pretty old, right, and it was really already
1:11:55
Speaker 2: moved down to the younger, younger generation. It was a
1:11:59
Speaker 2: method of private right. The idea was that they didn't
1:12:01
Speaker 2: want anybody really knowing what they had exactly and what
1:12:04
Speaker 2: kind of trades they were making, and what kind of
1:12:06
Speaker 2: banks they had money at. And they couldn't just swear
1:12:10
Speaker 2: their accountants and their attorneys to secrecy, so they could
1:12:12
Speaker 2: employ them and threaten to fire them from that job
1:12:15
Speaker 2: if they said anything. And so they created that years ago.
1:12:19
Speaker 2: It was one hundred million dollars was a qualifier for
1:12:21
Speaker 2: a family office. Today you wouldn't really, it doesn't make
1:12:25
Speaker 2: sense financially to start under a billion dollars of family network.
1:12:29
Speaker 2: You plug into something called a multi family office, which
1:12:32
Speaker 2: is what we do in one of our divisions, where
1:12:34
Speaker 2: we essentially help a number of families and they mingle
1:12:39
Speaker 2: their assets for certain investment opportunities. They call mingle their
1:12:42
Speaker 2: assets for economies of scale with advisors. That type of thing.
1:12:46
Speaker 2: Big change. A couple of years ago where the SEC
1:12:48
Speaker 2: required them to register as investment advisors and it was
1:12:54
Speaker 2: knocked back, but it was a big deal because a
1:12:57
Speaker 2: lot of these Once you register as an investment advisor,
1:13:00
Speaker 2: now the SEC knows what you're doing, and it defeats
1:13:02
Speaker 2: that whole privacy issue. So there's some complications there.
1:13:06
Speaker 1: Well, I will tell you, and I want to just
1:13:08
Speaker 1: sort of share with listeners and viewers why I've become
1:13:12
Speaker 1: more interested in family offices. As you look for investors
1:13:15
Speaker 1: in new businesses, particularly in the media space, a family
1:13:20
Speaker 1: office is more likely to give you time, have patients,
1:13:30
Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily not all of them are this way,
1:13:33
Speaker 1: but some are. You're more likely to find versus working
1:13:35
Speaker 1: with just a larger private equity firm who needs help.
1:13:39
Speaker 1: I need my three year return, I need a what's
1:13:41
Speaker 1: my exit ramp in five years? What's my exp versus right?
1:13:45
Speaker 1: And sometimes it is political alignment, you know, I'm involved
1:13:51
Speaker 1: with investment. It's been over ten years now, that's kind
1:13:55
Speaker 1: of been flat. It's gone really nowhere, but it's been
1:13:58
Speaker 1: a sustainable real estate development and and different, you know,
1:14:04
Speaker 1: and it's come close, but it's it's been family offices
1:14:08
Speaker 1: that were the primary primary investors. And it is a
1:14:15
Speaker 1: it has been a long time horizon.
1:14:17
Speaker 2: It's so we see, it's an increasingly it's an increasingly
1:14:20
Speaker 2: popular source of investment in capital for companies. For exactly
1:14:24
Speaker 2: why you say they have a they have a very
1:14:26
Speaker 2: long time horizon and they're very patient and they don't
1:14:29
Speaker 2: need a return immediately.
1:14:30
Speaker 1: Well they may be. It's their way of like, hey,
1:14:33
Speaker 1: we got to fix local news. I get it. You
1:14:35
Speaker 1: need ten years not three years, okay, versus you know
1:14:39
Speaker 1: your Apollo. You know, look they got a it's almost
1:14:41
Speaker 1: like a factory of investments.
1:14:43
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yep, that's exactly right. Yeah, yeah, Pollow is
1:14:46
Speaker 2: a good example. No, but it's it's a it's an
1:14:49
Speaker 2: interesting group. I enjoy it. I I love one of
1:14:53
Speaker 2: the reasons I'm still in businesses. I love hearing about
1:14:56
Speaker 2: somebody creating a new widget and then building a company
1:14:59
Speaker 2: around it. I just find that to be.
1:15:02
Speaker 1: And you get that more often with family office investments
1:15:05
Speaker 1: than with just generic private equity.
1:15:07
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yeah, I mean private equity has been the
1:15:11
Speaker 2: source for a lot of these smaller companies to be
1:15:14
Speaker 2: taken out and purchased. I mean, private equity is buying
1:15:17
Speaker 2: into doctors groups and dentist groups and veterinarian groups. So
1:15:20
Speaker 2: they're getting on a granular level with businesses, family offices.
1:15:24
Speaker 2: You see, not necessarily buying businesses. They'll buy into something
1:15:27
Speaker 2: or they'll be the seed investor for it.
1:15:30
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the what I think is
1:15:34
Speaker 1: as I sort of been saying. I said, look, the
1:15:36
Speaker 1: pitchforks are getting sharpened, and I think there are some
1:15:41
Speaker 1: wealthy people who are nervous about this. You know, and
1:15:44
Speaker 1: you see the stories about people building bunkers and all
1:15:46
Speaker 1: of this stuff. Do you have many investors that are
1:15:48
Speaker 1: worried about this inequality coming for them?
1:15:52
Speaker 2: It's more of a conversation now than it has been ever.
1:15:57
Speaker 2: I don't have anybody that is. I mean, if the
1:16:00
Speaker 2: building a bunker in Florida, it's because of hurricanes, not
1:16:02
Speaker 2: because somebody's coming out.
1:16:04
Speaker 1: You can't build too much of a bunker in Florida.
1:16:06
Speaker 1: You're going to hit the Atlantic Ocean, so good luck,
1:16:07
Speaker 1: that's right.
1:16:08
Speaker 2: Or the golf or the golf. But it's come up,
1:16:13
Speaker 2: you know, I mean you just take just go to
1:16:15
Speaker 2: Munich this past week, right, you know, the AOC's discussion
1:16:19
Speaker 2: and others about you know, the change in the world,
1:16:23
Speaker 2: and I thought that was interesting on a number of levels.
1:16:26
Speaker 2: But it was an immediate example. And you see it
1:16:28
Speaker 2: in other countries as well too. You see it a
1:16:30
Speaker 2: lot more in Europe, and so it'll be interesting to
1:16:34
Speaker 2: see what happens. But I haven't had any experience where
1:16:36
Speaker 2: people feel threatened, but I do think it's it's one
1:16:39
Speaker 2: of the reasons you have. And we saw it in
1:16:42
Speaker 2: Covid here in Florida, the increase in gun sales where people.
1:16:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I live on the water in this little
1:16:49
Speaker 2: town in bel Air, and I was the only I
1:16:53
Speaker 2: probably should have admit this on a publication, but on
1:16:57
Speaker 2: the media, but I was the only house on the
1:17:00
Speaker 2: street that wasn't armed. And I'm not talking about just armed.
1:17:04
Speaker 2: I'm talking about two three five seven guns. My wife
1:17:07
Speaker 2: and I, she's a native of Pennsylvania and she have
1:17:09
Speaker 2: brothers had gone hunting and she said, well, yeah, I
1:17:11
Speaker 2: know how to use a gun. I go, well, let's
1:17:13
Speaker 2: go to the gun range because I got to figure
1:17:14
Speaker 2: this out because if nothing else, I got to be
1:17:16
Speaker 2: able to talk to my neighbors. So I think that
1:17:20
Speaker 2: had something. There is some of that.
1:17:22
Speaker 1: If it's something about Florida. It's so funny. It's like,
1:17:25
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people that are in your
1:17:27
Speaker 1: situation who are like, boy, I don't want to be
1:17:29
Speaker 1: a gun owner, but if everybody else can have a
1:17:30
Speaker 1: gun around me, I better.
1:17:32
Speaker 2: Maybe I should feel really stupid, you know.
1:17:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're like, am I going to be there and
1:17:36
Speaker 1: like what happened? You know? But that is you know,
1:17:39
Speaker 1: I'm also one of those who believes in statistics and
1:17:43
Speaker 1: the numbers say you're more likely to die of a
1:17:46
Speaker 1: gunshot wound if you have a gun in the house
1:17:48
Speaker 1: than if you don't have a gun in the house. Yeah,
1:17:51
Speaker 1: and yeah, I believe that.
1:17:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would have to be the guy says,
1:17:54
Speaker 2: hold on just a minute. I'm just trying to figure
1:17:56
Speaker 2: out how to load this thing. Give me just a second.
1:18:00
Speaker 1: One.
1:18:00
Speaker 2: It wouldn't be pretty. So I thankfully I am married
1:18:02
Speaker 2: to a very smart woman who knows how to do that.
1:18:05
Speaker 2: And so we've agreed that if we're under attack, she'll
1:18:07
Speaker 2: defend us.
1:18:08
Speaker 1: Well, but basically she's going to survive. You'll be done
1:18:11
Speaker 1: in like the first couple of days of the.
1:18:13
Speaker 2: She's mentioned that, actually she's mentioned that.
1:18:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, when when money will be worthless? And we're trading
1:18:20
Speaker 1: bottle caps, you know, as our new currency. I joke,
1:18:25
Speaker 1: except that is the uh kind of the plot line
1:18:28
Speaker 1: of the TV show Fallout, Yeah, which I I am.
1:18:36
Speaker 1: I look at the bad guys in Fallout, and all
1:18:39
Speaker 1: the bad guys now are either corporate like titans, right.
1:18:44
Speaker 1: Our new bad guys are corporate titans or private equity
1:18:46
Speaker 1: people right, the the uber and super rich. And you
1:18:50
Speaker 1: have people complaining that private equity. You just talked about
1:18:53
Speaker 1: them investing in doctors' offices and Dennis practices and you've
1:18:57
Speaker 1: got you know, buying up houses, the parental properties and stuff.
1:19:03
Speaker 1: Do folks in private equity know that their brand is
1:19:07
Speaker 1: for ship these days?
1:19:09
Speaker 2: You know, it's not that positive, you know, it's it's
1:19:14
Speaker 2: it's a great question, and the short answer is yes.
1:19:17
Speaker 2: And this has been the same as people that made
1:19:19
Speaker 2: a lot of money on Wall Street for many years.
1:19:21
Speaker 2: They weren't in the business to be liked. They were
1:19:22
Speaker 2: in the business to get rich. And I think that's
1:19:26
Speaker 2: I think that still still is out there. I mean
1:19:28
Speaker 2: they think and the rationalization is their investments into companies
1:19:34
Speaker 2: create the capital for those companies to do better, and
1:19:37
Speaker 2: so they rationalize that and you know, they defend themselves
1:19:41
Speaker 2: against carried interest in other things, but you know, it's it's, it's, it's,
1:19:45
Speaker 2: it's an issue, but they don't. They don't really worry
1:19:48
Speaker 2: as much about what they thought of as looking for
1:19:49
Speaker 2: the next best investment opportunity. There's a ton of private
1:19:53
Speaker 2: equity cash out there looking for places to invest in things.
1:19:57
Speaker 2: I mean, roofing companies here in Florida are now being
1:20:00
Speaker 2: bought up, independent car washes, little car washes.
1:20:04
Speaker 1: Private equity is rolling up.
1:20:06
Speaker 2: Roofers, roofers, and and two years ago the big thing
1:20:10
Speaker 2: was car washes. So they look for places too.
1:20:14
Speaker 1: Thought car washers were all money laundering fronts, I mean,
1:20:17
Speaker 1: semi facetious, but not a present pacetious.
1:20:21
Speaker 2: I think I think that was the the extension of laundromats, right,
1:20:24
Speaker 2: I mean it was wherever, wherever cash was you. But
1:20:27
Speaker 2: you know, I'm relatively I'm relatively positive about the economy
1:20:31
Speaker 2: for for a bunch of reasons that may or may
1:20:34
Speaker 2: not get talked about here. So the private equities some
1:20:37
Speaker 2: degree provides some liquidity for folks that are looking to
1:20:40
Speaker 2: sell their businesses that might not otherwise have been able
1:20:43
Speaker 2: to sell. Now the question is what do they do
1:20:45
Speaker 2: with it afterwards? That's that's that's the big criticism. Right,
1:20:49
Speaker 2: they take a business, they need to make it profitable
1:20:51
Speaker 2: in five years. They don't have that time horizon. We
1:20:53
Speaker 2: spoke about a little while ago about family offices. So
1:20:56
Speaker 2: they do things cutting services, firing people, doing all sorts
1:21:00
Speaker 2: of things that are well.
1:21:01
Speaker 1: Nursing homes has been a classic case. I mean, look,
1:21:04
Speaker 1: I get what I get. What's attractive to private equity
1:21:07
Speaker 1: when you do roll ups like it makes sense to
1:21:09
Speaker 1: me about roofers. Car washes make less sense to me,
1:21:11
Speaker 1: but roofers makes sense to me because in Florida you
1:21:15
Speaker 1: suddenly will have a steady stream of government controlled cash
1:21:20
Speaker 1: that is suddenly going to pay pay for bills or
1:21:23
Speaker 1: with a doctor's offices. It's Medicare with you know that
1:21:26
Speaker 1: there is a source of constant revenue that comes in,
1:21:30
Speaker 1: which for private equity is attractive. So I sort of
1:21:35
Speaker 1: get maybe what they're thinking on the roof of front
1:21:37
Speaker 1: that if you've cornered the market on roofers, you're gonna
1:21:40
Speaker 1: have all this FEMA aid coming in and insurance you know,
1:21:45
Speaker 1: money automatically coming You're not you're not as reliant on
1:21:49
Speaker 1: individual customers as you are on sort of you know,
1:21:54
Speaker 1: collect a collection of customers that are forced to use
1:21:59
Speaker 1: your service.
1:22:00
Speaker 2: Because then if they can find businesses that have automatic,
1:22:03
Speaker 2: repeatable cash flow where somebody's put them on a you know,
1:22:06
Speaker 2: on a on some kind of contract where they pay
1:22:08
Speaker 2: two hundred a month or one hundred and fifty a month,
1:22:10
Speaker 2: whether it's a gym or you know, it's it's it's
1:22:12
Speaker 2: the whole idea of the cell phone business, right. They
1:22:14
Speaker 2: like that repeatable, dependable cash flow that gives evaluation higher.
1:22:19
Speaker 2: I have a good friend who owns a series of
1:22:21
Speaker 2: coffee shops. The private equity are looking at these coffee
1:22:24
Speaker 2: shops being able to monetize them. Again, it's it's interesting.
1:22:30
Speaker 2: It's entrepreneurism and it's a it's I'm not sure if
1:22:33
Speaker 2: it's just best or it's worse, but it's entrepreneurs.
1:22:35
Speaker 1: I think we're trying to figure that out, right. It's like, it's,
1:22:38
Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting as I've been trying to start
1:22:42
Speaker 1: a couple of small what comparison with the small businesses,
1:22:47
Speaker 1: you know, the structure is an impediment, right, thinking about
1:22:51
Speaker 1: well how can I afford you know, I could afford
1:22:54
Speaker 1: to pay salaries, but I can't afford the benefits for
1:22:56
Speaker 1: salaries like that. And you know, you know, a big
1:23:01
Speaker 1: entity can sort of can can weather that a small startup.
1:23:06
Speaker 1: This feels like it's never been harder to start up
1:23:09
Speaker 1: a small business that's more than five employees. That that
1:23:13
Speaker 1: the you know, it's one thing to have like five
1:23:16
Speaker 1: employees or less, right, super small business basically do it yourself.
1:23:19
Speaker 1: Then there's well, no, no, no, You're you're going to
1:23:22
Speaker 1: have a payroll of somewhere between say six and twenty.
1:23:27
Speaker 1: That feels like a nightmare now to start a business
1:23:30
Speaker 1: like that, and and that kind of feels like that
1:23:33
Speaker 1: shouldn't be the case.
1:23:34
Speaker 2: Payroll companies take off some of that challenge, right where
1:23:37
Speaker 2: you can have somebody do all that for a couple
1:23:39
Speaker 2: of cents per employee. But you're right, it's not as
1:23:42
Speaker 2: easy as just doing your thing. You've got. I mean,
1:23:44
Speaker 2: you talk to anybody that's in a restaurant business or
1:23:46
Speaker 2: anybody that's a doctor. They take the weekends to fill
1:23:49
Speaker 2: out insurance forms, right in the case of the restaurant business. There,
1:23:52
Speaker 2: So it is, it's it's true entrepreneurship and small businesses.
1:23:57
Speaker 2: And you know, the stab, right, But our country is
1:23:59
Speaker 2: prime early small businesses, and so that's you know, it's
1:24:03
Speaker 2: it's it's something that needs to grow and needs to continue.
1:24:06
Speaker 2: But it's hard.
1:24:07
Speaker 1: They don't you think we have the laws in place
1:24:09
Speaker 1: that encourage small business startups or not, Because I would
1:24:13
Speaker 1: argue we don't.
1:24:15
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I agree with you. I think
1:24:17
Speaker 2: it's one of the reasons that you know, as much
1:24:19
Speaker 2: as economists are crawling for interest rates to stay where
1:24:22
Speaker 2: they are because the fear of inflation coming back, I
1:24:24
Speaker 2: think interest rates are too high for that exact example.
1:24:28
Speaker 2: Folks are having a lot of trouble getting capital, and
1:24:30
Speaker 2: if they can get it, the interest rate is ridiculously high.
1:24:33
Speaker 2: So forget about even buying a house.
1:24:35
Speaker 1: Just let me. I mean, I'll give you two items
1:24:38
Speaker 1: that I never thought i'd sound like a Bernie Sanders
1:24:42
Speaker 1: on this. But if you took the burden of healthcare
1:24:45
Speaker 1: and childcare off of a business owner to as a benefit,
1:24:52
Speaker 1: and the government was helping with that, I could probably
1:24:56
Speaker 1: start up this business a lot sooner.
1:24:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, it's not Bernie Sanders, that's
1:25:01
Speaker 2: just become common sense. But you're right, that's where he
1:25:04
Speaker 2: would But you know.
1:25:05
Speaker 1: And that's those that want to fight it say, oh,
1:25:07
Speaker 1: that's socialism. It's like, no, this is government making it
1:25:10
Speaker 1: easier to start a small business.
1:25:13
Speaker 2: Halfway pitching this. Yeah, there's a halfway step in between, right,
1:25:16
Speaker 2: And that's making more access to capital, and there there
1:25:20
Speaker 2: are a lot of proposals out there for that. And
1:25:23
Speaker 2: again that's sometimes private equity. That's sometimes banks. Bank regulations
1:25:28
Speaker 2: on the regional bank side are ridiculous, really ridiculous.
1:25:31
Speaker 1: I'm not and I get it. It's like, look, the regional,
1:25:35
Speaker 1: the small and regional banks are paying a penalty for
1:25:39
Speaker 1: the sins of the of Layman brothers.
1:25:40
Speaker 2: Basically, there's no question that's it. I mean, well, put.
1:25:53
Speaker 1: Why what's your sense in the public markets? Is there
1:25:58
Speaker 1: no longer as much confidence in the public markets. It
1:26:01
Speaker 1: seems like there are more and more companies that don't
1:26:03
Speaker 1: want the hassle of shareholders, don't want the hassle of
1:26:08
Speaker 1: quarterly filings, things like that, and more and more are
1:26:14
Speaker 1: I would like to stay as private companies.
1:26:17
Speaker 2: There is a trend, there is a trend for executive buildings,
1:26:20
Speaker 2: less reporting. You're seeing it even more with the AI
1:26:23
Speaker 2: companies right andthropic Open AI they they can, they can
1:26:30
Speaker 2: set an artificial valuation of the company. Nobody can really
1:26:33
Speaker 2: challenge that. You're seeing some of that. I'm not necessarily
1:26:37
Speaker 2: sure that's a lack of confidence in the public markets.
1:26:41
Speaker 2: I just don't think they need the capital because they're
1:26:43
Speaker 2: getting plenty of capital from private sources. Remember, one of
1:26:46
Speaker 2: the reasons a company goes public is access to unlimited capital. Frankly,
1:26:50
Speaker 2: right now in our society, we have access to unlimited
1:26:52
Speaker 2: private capital. So I think that's a lot of the driver,
1:26:55
Speaker 2: more so than just the fact that and talking about
1:26:59
Speaker 2: condens in the public markets from a retail client perspective,
1:27:03
Speaker 2: I see it actually being the reverse. I see a
1:27:05
Speaker 2: lot of confidence. Robin Hood is killing it because they're
1:27:08
Speaker 2: opening so many accounts for young investors who want to
1:27:11
Speaker 2: be part of the markets. So I think I think
1:27:14
Speaker 2: in that way, it's it's it's pretty strong. You see
1:27:18
Speaker 2: examples of it. You see examples of it in the
1:27:21
Speaker 2: way that younger people are operating just right now. Obviously
1:27:24
Speaker 2: you see them doing these meme stop type of things,
1:27:27
Speaker 2: which is bordering on a little insanity, But generally speaking,
1:27:31
Speaker 2: they like to invest.
1:27:34
Speaker 1: Well do they like to invest or? Are they gambling?
1:27:37
Speaker 1: One of that. Yeah, I mean, the we're the prediction
1:27:43
Speaker 1: of gambling houses because I just refuse to call them markets. Yes,
1:27:48
Speaker 1: it was a market per se, but it is I
1:27:51
Speaker 1: think it's a rigged market. I'm talking about if.
1:27:55
Speaker 2: They're buying an ETF and S and P five hundred,
1:27:57
Speaker 2: that's necessarily right, right, yeah, no, you're right, you're right.
1:28:01
Speaker 1: But but I do think we've we're marketing, you know,
1:28:04
Speaker 1: we're sort of we're making everything seem like a a
1:28:09
Speaker 1: what do you we commoditizing monetizing everything, right, yeah, you know,
1:28:13
Speaker 1: I assume we're you know, you're gonna be instead of
1:28:16
Speaker 1: paying you know, how do you pay your quarterback in
1:28:19
Speaker 1: college football? You know, the fans may be asked to
1:28:22
Speaker 1: buy a share of I'm a big University of Miami guy.
1:28:26
Speaker 1: You know, we might you know, I'm gonna you know,
1:28:28
Speaker 1: can you buy ten shares of Carson Beck's salary? Like
1:28:31
Speaker 1: why do I have a feeling that? And then and
1:28:33
Speaker 1: then I might trade it on a market because oh
1:28:35
Speaker 1: he's doing well, somebody will buy it. It's worth more
1:28:37
Speaker 1: now because he might be a Heisman Trophy candidate. I mean,
1:28:41
Speaker 1: I guess that's what the prediction markets are are are
1:28:44
Speaker 1: serving as in some form or another. I don't know
1:28:47
Speaker 1: if we need all that.
1:28:48
Speaker 2: I'm I never understood the portal concept in college sports
1:28:53
Speaker 2: where somebody can go and to another school. I mean,
1:28:56
Speaker 2: can you imagine being a coach. I think that's why
1:28:58
Speaker 2: Luce Saban said, that's.
1:29:00
Speaker 1: On you're showing your lou Saban was a Miami guy.
1:29:04
Speaker 1: Nick Saban, not related to but thank you man who
1:29:08
Speaker 1: saved Miami football. So I always have a strong feeling,
1:29:12
Speaker 1: a warm feeling about him.
1:29:13
Speaker 2: Listen, you you're you should have been very proud. I
1:29:15
Speaker 2: hope you were. In the National National Championship game. They
1:29:18
Speaker 2: played them tough. That was that was a great game.
1:29:21
Speaker 2: So we were all we were all kind of cheering
1:29:24
Speaker 2: down here because we want to buds.
1:29:26
Speaker 1: First time Floridians seemed to like, yeah, let's root for
1:29:29
Speaker 1: my like Miami usually was the black hat team, you know,
1:29:31
Speaker 1: for the rest of the day, had a lot of support.
1:29:35
Speaker 1: I could feel it. For the first time. Miami wasn't hated.
1:29:37
Speaker 2: Uh but you know, there is there is a sea change,
1:29:40
Speaker 2: Chuck that's going on. Economically. I'm not sure I'm qualified
1:29:43
Speaker 2: to to to say where it's going to end up,
1:29:47
Speaker 2: but I see there's a casino like approach to certain markets.
1:29:51
Speaker 2: You didn't want to call them markets. They are markets technically,
1:29:54
Speaker 2: but it's it's a it's a.
1:29:57
Speaker 1: Town has an advantage that you can't see, you know,
1:30:00
Speaker 1: I don't you know, for instance, on slot machines, none
1:30:03
Speaker 1: of us know exactly how that algorithm works in those
1:30:07
Speaker 1: slot machines, nobody, you know, but somebody has the answer
1:30:11
Speaker 1: to that. Somebody knows when that slot machine one, you know,
1:30:15
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty three, you know on the floor
1:30:18
Speaker 1: is going to pay out. You know, you know, somebody
1:30:21
Speaker 1: knows the answer. And that's my concern about these prediction markets,
1:30:25
Speaker 1: is that somebody knows the answer and can gain it.
1:30:28
Speaker 2: I think there's you know, where we're seeing the prediction
1:30:30
Speaker 2: markets now, for example, I mean, we've had a couple
1:30:32
Speaker 2: of good years in the market, and the projection is
1:30:35
Speaker 2: for twenty six to be good too, until it becomes
1:30:39
Speaker 2: fairly clear. If it becomes fairly clear that there might
1:30:42
Speaker 2: be a wholesale change politically in the midterms, and then
1:30:46
Speaker 2: you're seeing all of a sudden things look a little
1:30:48
Speaker 2: bit different, and so we're already trying to game that out,
1:30:52
Speaker 2: and that could be very interesting. If the house flips,
1:30:57
Speaker 2: you'll see people, you know, draw back. I think how
1:31:00
Speaker 2: of the market you'll see, Yeah.
1:31:02
Speaker 1: And then somebody is going to point out the chart
1:31:04
Speaker 1: that shows how well the market does with divide.
1:31:05
Speaker 2: Of government divided government. And in fact, if you go
1:31:09
Speaker 2: a little further back, is you know Democrats, you know,
1:31:12
Speaker 2: because they had this reputation for spending more money, actually
1:31:15
Speaker 2: stock markets did pretty well under.
1:31:16
Speaker 1: Print Democratic presidents, right have.
1:31:20
Speaker 2: All I get called a liar when I say that.
1:31:22
Speaker 1: It's just a fact. I mean, it's just been how
1:31:25
Speaker 1: it's worked going back to it goes back to Reagan, right,
1:31:29
Speaker 1: Carter and Reagan, but it goes back.
1:31:30
Speaker 2: In politically though. I think that you asked this earlier
1:31:35
Speaker 2: in the discussion, but I think you're going to see
1:31:37
Speaker 2: more and more of an impact politically on economic situations
1:31:40
Speaker 2: going forward. And I think it's it's a byproduct of
1:31:43
Speaker 2: what's happened over the last few years, particularly with President Trump.
1:31:48
Speaker 2: I think regardless of which way it goes, you're going
1:31:51
Speaker 2: to have a seesaw type of effect.
1:31:54
Speaker 1: Well, I don't expect you to say this, but I'm
1:31:58
Speaker 1: going to say this, and I'm going to ask you
1:31:59
Speaker 1: whether this is how some impact the more transactional that
1:32:03
Speaker 1: Trump presents himself as. So you know, I talked about
1:32:06
Speaker 1: the crypto industry who just basically got in bed with him,
1:32:09
Speaker 1: and AI decided to get in bed, like, look, we
1:32:11
Speaker 1: can get we can get more of what we want
1:32:14
Speaker 1: out of here. Let's just make this bet in the
1:32:16
Speaker 1: moment and we'll deal with We'll deal with when the
1:32:19
Speaker 1: other party gets power. We'll deal with them when we
1:32:21
Speaker 1: when they get power, and we'll figure it out. And
1:32:27
Speaker 1: the concern I have is this is like step one
1:32:30
Speaker 1: to kleptocracy. And let me just ask you this, when
1:32:34
Speaker 1: do you tell a client be careful investing in country
1:32:37
Speaker 1: X because the government is too involved in the economy.
1:32:41
Speaker 2: I haven't had that conversation yet, but I do a
1:32:44
Speaker 2: fair amount of interviews Great Britain, and of course Farage
1:32:49
Speaker 2: coming in. I mean, there's an example of something that
1:32:52
Speaker 2: you have to keep an eye on. And I was
1:32:54
Speaker 2: thinking about recently.
1:32:56
Speaker 1: You know, Turkey's a place that is a on one hand,
1:32:59
Speaker 1: isn't an interesting, vibrant economy on the and and maybe
1:33:02
Speaker 1: an investable place on the other hand. I wouldn't trust
1:33:06
Speaker 1: that government.
1:33:07
Speaker 2: But Turkey, Turkey is not a conversation that comes up
1:33:09
Speaker 2: very regularly for investing. Now, Brazil, that's something we hear
1:33:12
Speaker 2: a lot about. And Brazil was on fire last year,
1:33:15
Speaker 2: so it did very well. So yeah, I mean, you
1:33:18
Speaker 2: have to watch it. But I think I think you know,
1:33:21
Speaker 2: what worries me about some of the indications that the
1:33:24
Speaker 2: FED isn't as independent as we would like. So what
1:33:27
Speaker 2: worries me about more than the stock market. What worries
1:33:31
Speaker 2: me is the bond market. And the bond market picks
1:33:33
Speaker 2: up these these inconsistencies that are going on economically, and
1:33:37
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see more potential for that.
1:33:39
Speaker 2: Goldman Sacks is predicting middle single digit returns and equity
1:33:43
Speaker 2: markets for the next couple of years, which which surprised
1:33:46
Speaker 2: a lot of us, and they continue to double down
1:33:48
Speaker 2: on that. I'm I'm not sure that's true. I see,
1:33:52
Speaker 2: I see some potential.
1:33:53
Speaker 1: For what do you think they're saying that they just
1:33:55
Speaker 1: don't have confidence in the in the central bank.
1:33:58
Speaker 2: That's the dollar, the central bank. I think the uncertainty
1:34:03
Speaker 2: not knowing about terrorists. I think the Supreme Court, frankly
1:34:05
Speaker 2: is going to go against the terrorists, but there's no
1:34:08
Speaker 2: mechanism that we have to be able to refund one
1:34:11
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five billion dollars, which is roughly what's
1:34:13
Speaker 2: been collected. So I think they're going to split the
1:34:15
Speaker 2: baby and say, look, you don't have to give back
1:34:17
Speaker 2: the teriffs that you got, but you can't do it
1:34:19
Speaker 2: going forward. So administration is going to be forced to
1:34:22
Speaker 2: find another avenue for that. They'll probably find something. But
1:34:25
Speaker 2: the point is this uncertainty and not knowing what's going
1:34:28
Speaker 2: to happen. I think Goldman's is predicting that that's going
1:34:31
Speaker 2: to impact company's earnings. It's going to impact their businesses,
1:34:35
Speaker 2: and we've seen some of that already, so it's the
1:34:39
Speaker 2: next couple of years. I actually, I actually think they're
1:34:42
Speaker 2: going to be more interesting from a volatility standpoint.
1:34:46
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting. Why why do you because well you
1:34:51
Speaker 1: said two different things here, and that's why I want
1:34:54
Speaker 1: I want to clarify as we as we land this play.
1:34:57
Speaker 1: You seem to be pretty a little more bullish on
1:34:59
Speaker 1: this year economically than most people. So let's unpack that.
1:35:03
Speaker 2: Why companies' earnings are excellent and they continue to revise
1:35:08
Speaker 2: them upwards. They're very lean and they've stayed lean after COVID.
1:35:13
Speaker 2: That's why you don't see unemployment changing all that dramatically today.
1:35:17
Speaker 2: Michael Barr in his speech, one of the FED governors
1:35:20
Speaker 2: actually talked about the disruption short term major disruption the
1:35:24
Speaker 2: labor markets that AI is going to produce. So that's
1:35:27
Speaker 2: the thing that I worry about coming down the road.
1:35:29
Speaker 2: But for the next and we used to look at
1:35:31
Speaker 2: things three to five years. Now we're looking at things
1:35:34
Speaker 2: as three to six months. In the three to six
1:35:36
Speaker 2: months period, I'm pretty positive after those times, it's we're
1:35:41
Speaker 2: not predicting.
1:35:43
Speaker 1: How much do you look at the what happened to
1:35:47
Speaker 1: the railroads in the eighteen seventies and eighties and certainly
1:35:53
Speaker 1: what happened in the UK, And how much do you
1:35:55
Speaker 1: think that AI investors ought to be thinking about that?
1:36:00
Speaker 2: Perhaps not AI investors as much as software companies. I
1:36:02
Speaker 2: think it's very possible that software companies are some of
1:36:06
Speaker 2: the casualties to that where AI can replace them. And
1:36:08
Speaker 2: it takes three to six months to write code by
1:36:10
Speaker 2: somebody that's really good, a I might do it in
1:36:12
Speaker 2: twelve minutes, so that's going to be a challenge for
1:36:16
Speaker 2: some software companies.
1:36:17
Speaker 1: I also hear you there, but I kind of feel
1:36:18
Speaker 1: like I kind of feel like this was an overreaction
1:36:22
Speaker 1: about software companies because you still want expertise, Like I
1:36:26
Speaker 1: want to train musician to oversee AI trying to compose music.
1:36:32
Speaker 1: I don't want just some random schmengy doing it right.
1:36:35
Speaker 1: So I still want a software you know, one time
1:36:43
Speaker 1: Inventor and Code are overseeing this.
1:36:46
Speaker 2: I agree, and I think it was an overreaction. They
1:36:48
Speaker 2: threw the baby out with the bathwater. You're not going
1:36:50
Speaker 2: to replace a crowd strike or a snowflake. Those are
1:36:53
Speaker 2: essential software companies that are doing essential work right. But
1:36:56
Speaker 2: I think as that refines over the next year to three,
1:37:00
Speaker 2: going to see some of them be casualties for this.
1:37:02
Speaker 2: And I can't name names in that, and I can't
1:37:04
Speaker 2: even think that far ahead, but I'm sure that that's
1:37:07
Speaker 2: going to be an occurrence. But keep in mind, this
1:37:10
Speaker 2: AI is only in the second inning. They're just fumbling around.
1:37:14
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how many times you hit
1:37:15
Speaker 2: chet GBT, but it's kind of amazing, whether it's that
1:37:19
Speaker 2: or Gemini, how many questions you get answered right. And
1:37:22
Speaker 2: this is before even keep in mind a gentic Seri
1:37:25
Speaker 2: is coming. That's probably by the end of the year
1:37:29
Speaker 2: that people there's roughly two million iPhones out there and
1:37:32
Speaker 2: use will have a system on their phone which will
1:37:36
Speaker 2: allow them to take money from say Bank of America
1:37:39
Speaker 2: and send it to Schwab or something like this, just
1:37:41
Speaker 2: in a voice control. I mean this what Apple has
1:37:45
Speaker 2: taken a long time to get into this AI space.
1:37:49
Speaker 2: They there's a couple of reasons for it, but the
1:37:52
Speaker 2: bottom line is when they deliver this product through this
1:37:56
Speaker 2: mechanism called Siri, it's going to be a game changer
1:37:59
Speaker 2: and that alone be the third or fourth inning. Now
1:38:01
Speaker 2: we're just in the second, so it's you know, there's
1:38:05
Speaker 2: some plus spots to this economy, I really think, but
1:38:09
Speaker 2: there's also going to be some major changes. I think
1:38:11
Speaker 2: one of the reasons I enjoy the business is those
1:38:14
Speaker 2: changes both scare me and excite me.
1:38:17
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I mean, you know, yes, I mean look,
1:38:21
Speaker 1: I think fear of AI job displacement is going to
1:38:23
Speaker 1: be a driver of a lot of decision making, even
1:38:28
Speaker 1: if we don't have evidence of it right away.
1:38:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think I think the
1:38:35
Speaker 2: politics will become increasingly more important because I think I
1:38:39
Speaker 2: think the politicians are going to have to understand that
1:38:42
Speaker 2: the populism side of what they're doing might get them
1:38:45
Speaker 2: some votes, but it could hurt them in other ways.
1:38:49
Speaker 2: And I think that's just something that's now being refined.
1:38:52
Speaker 2: I have a friend who's running for governor down here,
1:38:55
Speaker 2: and he's constantly navigating that mindfield. He was a Republican.
1:38:59
Speaker 2: He's now a Democrat because the Republicans. Yeah, yeah, because
1:39:04
Speaker 2: he didn't like Trump. And and it's it's it's interesting.
1:39:08
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at span Berger, right, she she
1:39:10
Speaker 2: you know, she she ran one way. She ran as
1:39:13
Speaker 2: a moderate, a centrist. I still think she is, for
1:39:17
Speaker 2: the most part right.
1:39:18
Speaker 1: But when you have one party control, all of a sudden,
1:39:21
Speaker 1: your legislature can define you. I mean, I'm pretty close
1:39:24
Speaker 1: with Pat McCrory, the former Republican governor of North Carolina,
1:39:28
Speaker 1: and you know he will tell you because his legislature was,
1:39:31
Speaker 1: you know, further to the right than than Donald Trump
1:39:34
Speaker 1: was at times, and they could override his vetos, so
1:39:38
Speaker 1: he ended up. You agree to some things out of
1:39:41
Speaker 1: party politics that can define you in a way that
1:39:45
Speaker 1: becomes impossible to get yourself out of. It's a warning.
1:39:48
Speaker 1: I worried about this for spam Burger, that she was
1:39:50
Speaker 1: going to have to immediately start as a partisan because
1:39:54
Speaker 1: of this redistricting mess, right, and that it could define
1:39:57
Speaker 1: her early days. And you know, know your first impressions,
1:40:01
Speaker 1: your first impression, and it.
1:40:03
Speaker 2: Has made a second one. Yeah, yeah, no, that's right,
1:40:06
Speaker 2: that's right. I mean, it's it's very interesting you mentioned
1:40:08
Speaker 2: North Carolina. I said to my wife the other day,
1:40:10
Speaker 2: I can't remember Tom tillis sounding so smart the last
1:40:13
Speaker 2: couple of interviews I've heard him do. It's like, my goodness,
1:40:17
Speaker 2: where's this guy chen?
1:40:18
Speaker 1: Well, now he's not going to worry about you know,
1:40:20
Speaker 1: Trump's endorsement. Like, I mean, it's quite you know, we
1:40:24
Speaker 1: always do politicians spun, but they're spinning and there's like
1:40:29
Speaker 1: total like capitulation. And I think what we're learning from
1:40:33
Speaker 1: these retiring Republicans who the minute they retire, they really
1:40:37
Speaker 1: tell you what's going on.
1:40:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, they get courage. Yeah, no, no, it's it's very understanding.
1:40:42
Speaker 2: But the Democrats don't have a clear run. You know,
1:40:45
Speaker 2: they have a unique ability to snatch the feet from
1:40:47
Speaker 2: the jobs of victory. And I'm afraid that you can
1:40:49
Speaker 2: see that a little bit now. I see that. You know,
1:40:51
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of these young politicians Momdami and
1:40:55
Speaker 2: and AOC. I don't think they can run the country.
1:40:58
Speaker 2: I think that showed just with AOC interviews in Munich.
1:41:01
Speaker 2: But the fact of the matter is they're refreshing. If
1:41:04
Speaker 2: you organize a lot of kids to come to the
1:41:06
Speaker 2: voters in a big city, I think that works. I'm
1:41:09
Speaker 2: not sure that works in a national election, so it'll
1:41:12
Speaker 2: be interesting. But I watch it more and more now,
1:41:14
Speaker 2: particularly on the centrist side, because I could make a
1:41:18
Speaker 2: pretty strong case the centrist policies are going to be
1:41:21
Speaker 2: better financially than these draconi in one way or the other.
1:41:24
Speaker 1: Well, I want to rebrand centrism because you know, I
1:41:27
Speaker 1: get it. I always joke. I get accused of being
1:41:29
Speaker 1: a centrist, and what I always say is nope, I'm
1:41:31
Speaker 1: an incrementalist. There are good left wing ideas and good
1:41:36
Speaker 1: right wing ideas. I like that, and you gotta start
1:41:40
Speaker 1: a tiny The only way to bring the country along
1:41:42
Speaker 1: on anything is you got to go a small step.
1:41:45
Speaker 1: When you make a big leap, that's when the boomerang comes.
1:41:48
Speaker 1: It always does. You can snap back and sometimes go
1:41:51
Speaker 1: backwards because you took too big of a leap, and
1:41:53
Speaker 1: the SmackDown is coming. You know, we never like I
1:41:57
Speaker 1: mean that, you know, we don't like to my change.
1:42:01
Speaker 1: It's so funny the thing that the big conundrum, and
1:42:05
Speaker 1: you see it because when people's own pot money, he's
1:42:08
Speaker 1: on the line, they stop being disruptors and change agents, right,
1:42:12
Speaker 1: And we're that way as an electorate. We want change
1:42:16
Speaker 1: and the minute somebody implements it, we hate it.
1:42:20
Speaker 2: You're seeing that in the immigration issues right now in
1:42:22
Speaker 2: the polling. That's right, that's right, that's right.
1:42:25
Speaker 1: Well, Bob, let me ask you this. You sound like
1:42:29
Speaker 1: you're still bullish on basic old investing in the stock market.
1:42:32
Speaker 1: You would still tell somebody today whatever you can sock away,
1:42:36
Speaker 1: still do it, because you're going to you know, if
1:42:39
Speaker 1: you just sit there, don't look at it, and you know,
1:42:42
Speaker 1: just shoot, you just bought the S and P five
1:42:45
Speaker 1: hundred sort of one of those funds. You're going to
1:42:48
Speaker 1: make ten percent on average over.
1:42:50
Speaker 2: That's good for the thirty year old and maybe even
1:42:52
Speaker 2: the thirty five or forty year old. But I wouldn't
1:42:54
Speaker 2: have that for the sixty year old and beyond right,
1:42:56
Speaker 2: i'd be and it could be a little lower in age.
1:43:00
Speaker 2: It really depends on risk tolerance. That's a that's a
1:43:02
Speaker 2: discussion that really needs to be had with clients. Now,
1:43:05
Speaker 2: be prepared for a thirty percent drop. I don't know
1:43:08
Speaker 2: if it's going to happen. I don't know when it's
1:43:09
Speaker 2: going to happen, But can you afford that? So the
1:43:12
Speaker 2: answer to that if they say no, is then look,
1:43:14
Speaker 2: you don't belong in a ninety percent equities portfolio. You
1:43:17
Speaker 2: belong in a fifty to fifty or sixty forty and
1:43:20
Speaker 2: you need enough cash to go through a couple of
1:43:22
Speaker 2: years of retirement, So keep it in the bank. I
1:43:24
Speaker 2: think that allocation side and one of the reasons we
1:43:27
Speaker 2: don't worry about AI kicking us out of business, just
1:43:30
Speaker 2: trying to increase our productivity is that's a discussion you
1:43:33
Speaker 2: really have to have with a client. You can't you
1:43:35
Speaker 2: can't put that on chat GBT. That's really a field discussion.
1:43:40
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's like just like healthcare. I mean,
1:43:43
Speaker 1: you may get a you may you may have more
1:43:45
Speaker 1: data about about the healthcare space thanks to chat GBT,
1:43:52
Speaker 1: but you still want doctor, a curator you trust to
1:43:55
Speaker 1: explain why chat gipt came up with that, come.
1:43:58
Speaker 2: Back to go back and forth. You know, I have
1:44:00
Speaker 2: a bunch of friends that are doctors in my area.
1:44:02
Speaker 2: And one of the things I don't know if you
1:44:04
Speaker 2: remember this or even if you were in in the
1:44:07
Speaker 2: area you live at the time, but there was a
1:44:08
Speaker 2: men's clothing store called Sims.
1:44:11
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.
1:44:11
Speaker 2: The educated consumer is our best customer. And I think
1:44:15
Speaker 2: that applies a friend of mine as a cardiologist, he
1:44:17
Speaker 2: said to me that the best thing is when a
1:44:20
Speaker 2: client comes in and has done some research on the
1:44:22
Speaker 2: drugs and the different procedures that I want to talk
1:44:24
Speaker 2: to them about, you know, as long as they're not
1:44:26
Speaker 2: trying to play doctor and tell me they don't like
1:44:28
Speaker 2: this because I like it better. The fact is they
1:44:30
Speaker 2: have a better relationship, a better patient relationship. We have it,
1:44:35
Speaker 2: by the way, with our clients.
1:44:36
Speaker 1: When they're in. You don't mind when a client comes
1:44:38
Speaker 1: in and says, hey, you know, I was talking with
1:44:41
Speaker 1: my son's advisor and he says this, this and this.
1:44:45
Speaker 2: You know, for years and we were early to this game, right,
1:44:48
Speaker 2: is the idea that an index fund as opposed to
1:44:50
Speaker 2: an actively managed portfolio is a better, better approach to take.
1:44:55
Speaker 2: And you know, before chat GBT or any of that,
1:44:58
Speaker 2: people were reading that Jason's why to the Wall Street Journals.
1:45:01
Speaker 2: An old friend of mine wrote a lot of those
1:45:03
Speaker 2: columns about that type of thing, and it was a
1:45:06
Speaker 2: better discussion because the client was informed. Now you had
1:45:09
Speaker 2: clients that were just stuck on a certain area and
1:45:12
Speaker 2: you couldn't change their mind. But I'd rather have that
1:45:14
Speaker 2: than someone that wasn't knowledgeable at all.
1:45:17
Speaker 1: I'm going to get you out of here on this.
1:45:18
Speaker 1: When it comes to what you do for a living,
1:45:21
Speaker 1: not your own personal concerns or politics, but what you
1:45:24
Speaker 1: do for a living. What's one question you want every
1:45:28
Speaker 1: presidential candidate to answer to it so that you understand
1:45:31
Speaker 1: whether they understand our economy and markets.
1:45:35
Speaker 2: I think it's been very obvious over the last couple
1:45:38
Speaker 2: of months, and it continues to be as the Federal
1:45:40
Speaker 2: Reserve an independent organization. I think we're the envy of
1:45:44
Speaker 2: the markets around the world for two reasons, our rule
1:45:47
Speaker 2: of law and the independence of our FED. That's why
1:45:50
Speaker 2: the dollar has been so strong, That's why it's the
1:45:52
Speaker 2: world safe haven, the currency of choice. I think that's
1:45:55
Speaker 2: an area that I think is as important as anything,
1:45:58
Speaker 2: and we're seeing it play out in real time.
1:46:00
Speaker 1: Well, you know, that might be one of the few
1:46:02
Speaker 1: issues that becomes a regularly asked question of these candidates.
1:46:06
Speaker 1: Do you believe in You know that the FED should
1:46:08
Speaker 1: be independent.
1:46:09
Speaker 2: And then the problem, of course is when they're asked
1:46:11
Speaker 2: those questions, they say one thing and do something else, right,
1:46:14
Speaker 2: So you know that that's an issue. But yeah, no,
1:46:17
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think I think it's important.
1:46:20
Speaker 2: I would also if I went into the political side
1:46:22
Speaker 2: a little bit. I worry about the Supreme Court, but
1:46:25
Speaker 2: I really think that FED independence is a big issue.
1:46:28
Speaker 2: You know. The bond market is something that I watch
1:46:30
Speaker 2: even more closely in the stock market. I'll leave you
1:46:33
Speaker 2: with a James Carvill quote which I always love. You
1:46:36
Speaker 2: probably heard it. He said once, if I believed in reincarnation,
1:46:39
Speaker 2: I don't want to come back as president or the
1:46:41
Speaker 2: Pope or even a full hundred baseball hitter. I'd rather
1:46:43
Speaker 2: come back as The bond market scare the hell out
1:46:45
Speaker 2: of everybody, and I think if you're in the financial business,
1:46:48
Speaker 2: you understand what that means. The bond market is the
1:46:51
Speaker 2: liquidity for all businesses, both in the United States and abroad,
1:46:55
Speaker 2: and when the bond market starts to seize up, that's problems,
1:46:58
Speaker 2: and that will happen if there's issues with the Federal Reserve.
1:47:02
Speaker 2: So I'm keeping my fingers crossed that that isn't a
1:47:04
Speaker 2: rubicount we need to cross.
1:47:06
Speaker 1: Well, Paul, that's a great conversation. Appreciate the time, the wisdom,
1:47:10
Speaker 1: the you know, it's good to get to know you.
1:47:12
Speaker 2: I hope to get the chance to do this again.
1:47:14
Speaker 1: So sounds good.
1:47:14
Speaker 2: This has been a pleasure, all right.
1:47:25
Speaker 1: Again, I don't say this because I don't trust mister Oslander,
1:47:28
Speaker 1: but I'm not here. This is not he is He
1:47:31
Speaker 1: and I do not have any financial relationship whatsoever at all.
1:47:36
Speaker 1: That is just a you probably if you're close watchers
1:47:40
Speaker 1: of the financial networks. I've seen him on my guess
1:47:42
Speaker 1: it's seen him on CNBC or elsewhere. But I thought
1:47:47
Speaker 1: he provided some important insight and I thought it was
1:47:51
Speaker 1: a good conversation. All right, it's Top five time and
1:47:56
Speaker 1: I'm gonna preview. I've got a I've got a fun
1:47:58
Speaker 1: little as you know, I'm kind of a history buff,
1:48:02
Speaker 1: but I'm also a campaign buff. And I've been sitting
1:48:06
Speaker 1: on some material for a while that I've been trying
1:48:08
Speaker 1: to figure out. Is it a book, is it a series?
1:48:12
Speaker 1: You know what it is? It is something I should
1:48:14
Speaker 1: be sharing with you. So in a couple of weeks,
1:48:17
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna have a fun little year, year
1:48:20
Speaker 1: long countdown of some of the greatest campaign stories that
1:48:26
Speaker 1: need to be told. And it'll be about state wide races,
1:48:30
Speaker 1: not presidential races, state wide races. But I think you
1:48:33
Speaker 1: will enjoy it. But in the meantime, it is a
1:48:36
Speaker 1: top five list to.
1:48:39
Speaker 2: Top five, top fun.
1:48:44
Speaker 1: Just to remind you the last my last top five
1:48:47
Speaker 1: in the Senate and the way I do it is
1:48:49
Speaker 1: most likely to change parties. So number one on the
1:48:53
Speaker 1: list last month and number one on the list this
1:48:55
Speaker 1: month will be the same. It is North Carolina. Nothing
1:48:58
Speaker 1: has changed in North Carolina. Other then it appears that
1:49:00
Speaker 1: Cooper is getting a larger financial lead. I think it
1:49:04
Speaker 1: is it is you can see that it matters when
1:49:08
Speaker 1: you can avoid a primary. He's not having to deal
1:49:10
Speaker 1: with any of the inter party you know fights that
1:49:13
Speaker 1: are taking place these days. It is it is the
1:49:19
Speaker 1: Democrat's seat to lose, and it would be a monumental. Look,
1:49:24
Speaker 1: Michael Watley, I think is going to raise a ton
1:49:26
Speaker 1: of money. It is a swing state. So but and
1:49:33
Speaker 1: maybe he can make it a referendum on Cooper, but
1:49:36
Speaker 1: he's not the sitting governor. Right, it has been two years.
1:49:39
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be harder. And I think
1:49:42
Speaker 1: Cooper's scubernatorial terms are seen fairly positively. I don't think
1:49:46
Speaker 1: there's a negative to it. He never lost reelection that
1:49:49
Speaker 1: matters as far as voters are concerned, so I think
1:49:52
Speaker 1: they're going to I think that this is if anything,
1:49:56
Speaker 1: I think this is, you know, I'd still keep it
1:49:59
Speaker 1: in top, but it's pretty close to being more lean
1:50:01
Speaker 1: Democrat than it is toss up if you were playing
1:50:03
Speaker 1: the rating word game there, right, lean versus I am
1:50:09
Speaker 1: only because Democrats haven't carried, have struggled in federal races
1:50:14
Speaker 1: in North Carolina, and I haven't won one since two
1:50:16
Speaker 1: thousand and eight. It's the only reason I'd be a
1:50:19
Speaker 1: little hesitant. I like my old friend Nathan Gonzales over
1:50:23
Speaker 1: at at the inside Elections. I think he uses toss
1:50:29
Speaker 1: up tilt Democrat or toss up tilt Republican. I would
1:50:34
Speaker 1: probably be slightly more comfortable with toss up tilt Democrat
1:50:37
Speaker 1: than I would be lean Democrat. But we're getting pretty
1:50:39
Speaker 1: close to lean Democrat there. Number two on the list
1:50:44
Speaker 1: is I think still main and I think it's because
1:50:47
Speaker 1: of Susan Collins is now getting into the Mitch McConnell territory,
1:50:54
Speaker 1: where you have the basis of both parties being unhappy
1:50:56
Speaker 1: with you, and I think that's a tough place to be.
1:51:01
Speaker 1: This is the worst poll numbers she's ever had facing
1:51:03
Speaker 1: a reelection, but look, she's running. The fact that she's
1:51:07
Speaker 1: in is a relief. I think there was a little
1:51:10
Speaker 1: bit of nervousness among Senate Republicans that she might that
1:51:14
Speaker 1: she might call it a career. But I think she's
1:51:19
Speaker 1: been convinced that if Graham Platner comes out of the primary,
1:51:21
Speaker 1: that she can somehow beat Platner. I think she fears
1:51:26
Speaker 1: Mills more than Platiner. Boy, you know I am. I'm
1:51:31
Speaker 1: kind of agnostic on this. I know Platner has this
1:51:34
Speaker 1: personal baggage and there's some authenticity issues that may come,
1:51:39
Speaker 1: whether it's this tattoo story in various ways. But he
1:51:43
Speaker 1: may fit the time right, he may fit the moment.
1:51:48
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you this, I thought the Governor Mills
1:51:52
Speaker 1: campaign put out an opening ad on Collins that was
1:51:56
Speaker 1: sort of mocking her regular use of the word concerned
1:52:01
Speaker 1: when it comes to Donald Trump decisions if you will,
1:52:06
Speaker 1: and it was always concerned, never courageous. Was an interesting
1:52:09
Speaker 1: I think that was the punchline. I thought it was
1:52:11
Speaker 1: really well done. And the other thing it did is
1:52:15
Speaker 1: it highlighted how long she'd been in Washington because she
1:52:18
Speaker 1: saw Susan Collins going all the way back to the
1:52:20
Speaker 1: mid nineties all the way through, So it it is.
1:52:25
Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's technically younger than Janet Mills,
1:52:28
Speaker 1: so I think that it's not the age issue, but
1:52:31
Speaker 1: it's how long have you been in Washington? I think
1:52:33
Speaker 1: is going to be more of a problem than how
1:52:36
Speaker 1: old you are. I think, but obviously, look that's a
1:52:42
Speaker 1: but her being in Washington too long, I don't care
1:52:46
Speaker 1: what party you're in. I think that's going to be
1:52:48
Speaker 1: more of a net negative than a net positive. I mean,
1:52:51
Speaker 1: I saw some internal polling that I got off the
1:52:54
Speaker 1: record about one incumbent and this is somebody who's fairly
1:52:57
Speaker 1: popular and is it time for someone new? Was ahead
1:53:01
Speaker 1: of re electing incumbent by a good dumb by fifteen points.
1:53:04
Speaker 1: And this is an incumbent who's fairly heavily favored at
1:53:06
Speaker 1: the moment. The natural inclination of this electorate is for
1:53:10
Speaker 1: new people. Whether you're in a small rural state or
1:53:14
Speaker 1: a big city, it is. It is nobody thinks the
1:53:17
Speaker 1: current leadership class deserves reelection, whatever that means to them.
1:53:22
Speaker 1: And so even though your own congressmen or woman is
1:53:25
Speaker 1: somebody that you may end up supporting, the general sentiment
1:53:28
Speaker 1: is they're looking right, the change candidate is going to
1:53:31
Speaker 1: get the second look. You may end up with the acumbent,
1:53:33
Speaker 1: but you're you're going to take a look at the
1:53:35
Speaker 1: change candidate. So I do think it's that type of atmosphere.
1:53:38
Speaker 1: So I'm going to keep Maine in the second slot,
1:53:43
Speaker 1: and I think you still have to in the third slot.
1:53:45
Speaker 1: Is still Michigan, Donald Trump, it was third last one.
1:53:49
Speaker 1: I don't worry. I'm shaking things up here in a second,
1:53:52
Speaker 1: but Michigan is still in the third slot. This is
1:53:56
Speaker 1: a Democratic seat that they have to hold. They can't
1:53:59
Speaker 1: afford to lose. Democrats need four to a net gain
1:54:03
Speaker 1: of four, now is it three? And they maybe can
1:54:07
Speaker 1: get somebody who's coxing with the Republicans to flip to
1:54:10
Speaker 1: the Democrats. That's a possibility. I'll get to that in
1:54:13
Speaker 1: a minute. But they need four and they can't afford
1:54:17
Speaker 1: to lose any and the two vulnerable. I would argue
1:54:20
Speaker 1: that there are four competitive Democratic held seats, only one
1:54:25
Speaker 1: is making my top five right now because I think
1:54:28
Speaker 1: generally the atmosphere is better for Democrats than Republicans. But
1:54:32
Speaker 1: the four Democratic held seats that are have some level
1:54:36
Speaker 1: of vulnerability to them are Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
1:54:43
Speaker 1: Now three of the four are retirees, right it's an
1:54:47
Speaker 1: open seat of Michigan, open seat of Minnesota, open seat
1:54:50
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, the fourth is Osoff and Georgia. Look
1:54:55
Speaker 1: asof when when I started doing these top five lists
1:54:58
Speaker 1: a few months ago, he was on this list. He's
1:55:00
Speaker 1: no longer on it. I think you've seen they haven't
1:55:04
Speaker 1: been able that there's no superstar candidate among the Republicans,
1:55:07
Speaker 1: and he is just a monster fundraiser, and frankly is
1:55:12
Speaker 1: just a really underrated campaigner. I think I've underestimated him.
1:55:17
Speaker 1: I have thought that he's benefited from sharing a ballot
1:55:20
Speaker 1: with Warnock. So look, he's on there this time without him,
1:55:24
Speaker 1: But so far I think he's you know, he's he
1:55:28
Speaker 1: looks a lot stronger now than I think, a lot
1:55:30
Speaker 1: of a lot of Democrats or Republican strategists expected at
1:55:33
Speaker 1: this point in the cycle. But Michigan, of all of
1:55:37
Speaker 1: the four open seats, the one that I think is
1:55:39
Speaker 1: the most vulnerable at the moment is Michigan because of
1:55:42
Speaker 1: the very potentially divisive Democratic primary. To a lesser extent,
1:55:47
Speaker 1: that's a phenomenon. Also in Minnesota, you have sort of
1:55:51
Speaker 1: a a less high profile version of what you're seeing
1:55:55
Speaker 1: in Minnesota than what you're seeing in Michigan, where you
1:55:57
Speaker 1: sort of have this you have sort of an the
1:56:00
Speaker 1: insider candidate, and Haley Stevens the sort of the Michigan
1:56:03
Speaker 1: outsider candidate, Molly McMorrow, and then the progressive outsider and
1:56:06
Speaker 1: I'll do ELSI. Yet that is still I think that
1:56:11
Speaker 1: potential where the Democratic nominee is a divisive figure inside
1:56:16
Speaker 1: his own her party is what any have. Mike Rogers
1:56:20
Speaker 1: on the other side, who's I think the least mag
1:56:23
Speaker 1: of a Republican that they could get Trump to support,
1:56:27
Speaker 1: is potentially a fairly strong nominee. Now, Trump has really
1:56:30
Speaker 1: screwed up things for Michigan Republicans like he's trying to
1:56:36
Speaker 1: I mean, the antagonism toward Canada doesn't play well in Michigan.
1:56:40
Speaker 1: He's messed with this new bridge that was meant to
1:56:43
Speaker 1: alleviate congestion on the one Bridge to Windsor. But because
1:56:47
Speaker 1: the gentleman who sort of controls the fees off of
1:56:50
Speaker 1: the one Windsor Bridge is going to see some of
1:56:53
Speaker 1: his income hit because of the opening of this new bridge,
1:56:55
Speaker 1: which was jointly paid for by Canada and Michigan. The
1:56:58
Speaker 1: US government essentially a donation to Donald Trump. Within twenty
1:57:03
Speaker 1: four hours got Donald Trump to rail against this new bridge.
1:57:07
Speaker 1: None of that is good for Mike Rogers. None of
1:57:09
Speaker 1: that is good in the business community of Michigan doesn't
1:57:11
Speaker 1: like it. It's a really awkward situation that the president
1:57:16
Speaker 1: has set up for Rogers. Now Rogers has to he can't.
1:57:19
Speaker 1: He can't afford to be in Trump's wrong side. He decided, well,
1:57:23
Speaker 1: he thinks he can't afford. You know, at some point
1:57:26
Speaker 1: he's going to have to break from him, but he's
1:57:28
Speaker 1: going to wait till after after to make sure there's
1:57:32
Speaker 1: no last minute primary challenger that shows up, right. But
1:57:37
Speaker 1: I do think that that Trump's complicated. The entire tariff
1:57:40
Speaker 1: regime is complicated life. I think for every Midwestern Senator
1:57:46
Speaker 1: in general, particularly in the farm states. But I think
1:57:48
Speaker 1: it's also done may hurt Rogers in the long run
1:57:53
Speaker 1: and may give whoever the Democratic now means. But for
1:57:55
Speaker 1: now I have to put this race. You know this
1:57:57
Speaker 1: what I have to have five Republican seats in here
1:58:00
Speaker 1: if it wasn't for the potential divisiveness of this Democratic primary.
1:58:04
Speaker 1: So number four on the list right now is Alaska.
1:58:07
Speaker 1: Last month I had Ohio there and I'm dropping. I
1:58:11
Speaker 1: think Alaska. You saw that Chuck Schumer has spent a
1:58:14
Speaker 1: ton of money to help Mary Patello sort of put
1:58:18
Speaker 1: together a field program, sort of to try to rival
1:58:20
Speaker 1: the Lisa Markowski field program, which is second to none
1:58:24
Speaker 1: in Alaska politics. Look, I think Dan Sullivan is is
1:58:29
Speaker 1: a tough person to turn into a Trumpian figure. But
1:58:35
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, Mary Patello was certainly
1:58:39
Speaker 1: as one one state wide election as the an at
1:58:41
Speaker 1: large house member, and certainly has a pretty good as
1:58:45
Speaker 1: a pretty good profile in the state. But I think
1:58:50
Speaker 1: this is, you know, pretty tough. But here's the wild card,
1:58:54
Speaker 1: and it's Lisa Rakowski. I'm very curious how what she
1:59:00
Speaker 1: does in this race. Remember she endorsed Mary Patello when
1:59:03
Speaker 1: she ran for the House. I think she has a
1:59:06
Speaker 1: good relationship with the Sullivan all everything. I understand. I've
1:59:09
Speaker 1: got some family and Anchorage, so that's sort of pretty
1:59:13
Speaker 1: plugged into Alaska politics. And you know, there's I don't
1:59:17
Speaker 1: think Murkowski and Sullivan, I don't think the two of them.
1:59:21
Speaker 1: I think they get along pretty well. I think they
1:59:23
Speaker 1: see think for the you know, I think they both
1:59:27
Speaker 1: sort of see themselves as Alaskans before they're partisans, right, so,
1:59:33
Speaker 1: I you know, but I do know she's skeptical of
1:59:38
Speaker 1: giving Trump too much power. And that's what's going to
1:59:41
Speaker 1: be interesting here. But I talked about I here's something
1:59:46
Speaker 1: else to ponder. If Peltello wins that senen see and
1:59:51
Speaker 1: let's say Democrats net three. Let's say they pick up
1:59:55
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Maine, in Alaska, but they come up short
1:59:57
Speaker 1: in Ohio, they come up short in Iowa, come up
2:00:00
Speaker 1: short in Texas. So they've netted three. It's fifty to fifty.
2:00:04
Speaker 1: Jada Vance breaks the tie unless one of the senators
2:00:11
Speaker 1: coxing with the Republicans decides to instead caucase with the Democrats.
2:00:16
Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski's likely her term ends in twenty twenty eight.
2:00:21
Speaker 1: It's up in her seats up in twenty twenty eight.
2:00:24
Speaker 1: This could be her last two years in Congress, does
2:00:31
Speaker 1: she she? She has been on the record sort of
2:00:37
Speaker 1: sey you know not. She didn't come across as a
2:00:40
Speaker 1: no on this question. She was evasive but didn't which
2:00:44
Speaker 1: was never definitive, which is all that matters. Democrats win
2:00:52
Speaker 1: the three seats, and one of the three is Alaska.
2:00:55
Speaker 1: I could easily see Lisa Murkowski going, look my state,
2:00:59
Speaker 1: I said, you know, I can you know my state
2:01:02
Speaker 1: has decided they want a Democratic Senate this cycle. So
2:01:05
Speaker 1: for now I'm going to organize with them. I don't
2:01:11
Speaker 1: think it's out of the realm of possibility. So Alaska's
2:01:14
Speaker 1: fourth on the list, and in number five I'm going
2:01:16
Speaker 1: to put Texas. I think we have learned a couple
2:01:21
Speaker 1: of things. First of all, the fact that so much
2:01:26
Speaker 1: money has poured into this race, that it is an
2:01:28
Speaker 1: enormous amount of money is being spent. The two biggest
2:01:31
Speaker 1: spenders right now are trailing in the polls in each side.
2:01:34
Speaker 1: Cornan and his allies trailing in the polls, tall Rico
2:01:38
Speaker 1: and his allies trailing in the polls. I think the
2:01:43
Speaker 1: open court look it is. It's going to be a
2:01:46
Speaker 1: runoff on the Republican side, for sure, there is a
2:01:50
Speaker 1: third cannon on the ballot among Democrats. It's a guy,
2:01:53
Speaker 1: you know, a lesser known candid, not a lot of money.
2:01:56
Speaker 1: But if we're looking at it, all the polling is
2:01:58
Speaker 1: indicated that that Tallarico it's going to be very close
2:02:02
Speaker 1: forty nine eight out of the question. And then we
2:02:06
Speaker 1: go to another runoff. And there's all sorts of game
2:02:10
Speaker 1: theory here that I've heard from various Texas watchers. So
2:02:17
Speaker 1: Crockett wins the primary bad news for Cornin, right if
2:02:23
Speaker 1: it's corn and Paxton, because the assumption among Republicans is
2:02:27
Speaker 1: anybody can beat Crockett Tall Rico wins. Do Senate Republicans
2:02:35
Speaker 1: panic beg Trump to endorse Cornin, and maybe Trump does
2:02:40
Speaker 1: it because he wants to save a senen see or
2:02:46
Speaker 1: they both go to runoffs and everybody stays out, and
2:02:51
Speaker 1: that becomes just a we get basically two and a
2:02:54
Speaker 1: half more months of more cowboll out of Texas. The
2:02:58
Speaker 1: point is is that here's what we do know. Texas
2:03:01
Speaker 1: is not a deep red state right now. It may
2:03:05
Speaker 1: end up going back to a more redder version of itself.
2:03:09
Speaker 1: But in the moment, it's not a very red state. Right,
2:03:12
Speaker 1: there's you know, look, protectionist policies aren't good. Isn't good
2:03:18
Speaker 1: for Texas business, So tariffs have not been good for Texas.
2:03:21
Speaker 1: This this border issue actually hasn't been great for the
2:03:25
Speaker 1: Texas economy. You've got a divided Republican party over this
2:03:32
Speaker 1: education plan by the governor and the voucherization programs which
2:03:36
Speaker 1: are not This is not universally popular. This is very
2:03:40
Speaker 1: it's not even universally popular among Republicans. It's got its
2:03:44
Speaker 1: detractors on the right because school choice in rural America
2:03:48
Speaker 1: is tough to actually make happen. You'd love to have
2:03:54
Speaker 1: school choice where you got to go fifty miles, and
2:03:57
Speaker 1: then the alternative is just homeschooling. Some parents would love
2:04:00
Speaker 1: to do that, not all parents can. So you've got
2:04:03
Speaker 1: that issue sitting over the head. Then you've got the
2:04:07
Speaker 1: character issues of Ken Paxton and one of the things
2:04:10
Speaker 1: that's been well, Trump may be mister Teflon when it
2:04:14
Speaker 1: comes to Epstein, and Trump maybe mister Teflon when it
2:04:16
Speaker 1: comes to this other stuff. Voters have been harder on
2:04:19
Speaker 1: anybody else that has tried to come across as Teflon Don.
2:04:25
Speaker 1: So I'm skeptical that somehow Texas voters are going to
2:04:27
Speaker 1: hold their nose on the morals and ethics stuff when
2:04:30
Speaker 1: it comes to Backston. Maybe I'm wrong, and boy Paxton
2:04:35
Speaker 1: Paxston is going to hope that he's got the teflon
2:04:37
Speaker 1: that Don has, that he wears the Teflon Don coding.
2:04:41
Speaker 1: We'll see, but I'm putting Texas in that fifth slot.
2:04:45
Speaker 1: But look on my watch list on here, Look I
2:04:47
Speaker 1: was competitive. It's interesting they Nathan Sage got out. So
2:04:51
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary. What that really means is that it
2:04:53
Speaker 1: guarantees that their Democrats don't have to go to their weird,
2:04:56
Speaker 1: funky convention clause. If no candidate gets more than you know,
2:05:01
Speaker 1: gets thirty five percent in Iowa, they go to some convention,
2:05:04
Speaker 1: which then turns into a problem. The unique thing about
2:05:09
Speaker 1: what I saw in Iowa recently is the Republicans put
2:05:11
Speaker 1: out a poll of the Democratic primary indicating that Schumer's
2:05:16
Speaker 1: favorite candidate was trailing badly. It was trailing Zach Wall's badly.
2:05:20
Speaker 1: Josh Turik, I'm trying to figure out why they released it.
2:05:26
Speaker 1: They want to put some pressure on they're hoping to
2:05:30
Speaker 1: create some tension. It hasn't really been an animated primary
2:05:35
Speaker 1: on that side of the aisle, so we'll see. But
2:05:37
Speaker 1: I found it interesting that the Republicans made it clear
2:05:40
Speaker 1: that they wanted, Hey, look, we think Zach Walls is
2:05:44
Speaker 1: running away with this, and I think in their mind
2:05:47
Speaker 1: they do. Again, I don't quite get it. I think
2:05:50
Speaker 1: they want to run against Walls, not against Turrek, who's
2:05:53
Speaker 1: got a profile, you know, a paralympian and he's got
2:05:58
Speaker 1: sort of a patriotic profile from a redder part of
2:06:00
Speaker 1: the state. Anyway, I'm trying to figure out the three
2:06:05
Speaker 1: dimensional chess that that those guys want to be playing
2:06:08
Speaker 1: over there, and then keep an eye on South Dakota.
2:06:14
Speaker 1: You know, the Christy Nome exit ramp is being built.
2:06:17
Speaker 1: The question is what's the exit ramp look like? Is
2:06:20
Speaker 1: it another job in the administration? Does she get, you know,
2:06:25
Speaker 1: is it that she run primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate.
2:06:30
Speaker 1: If she primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate, you could
2:06:34
Speaker 1: have a mini Texas situation. Right, Mike Rounds is a
2:06:37
Speaker 1: better general election candidate than he would be a primary
2:06:39
Speaker 1: Republican primary candidate. Mike Rounds is not the most pro
2:06:42
Speaker 1: MAGA guy. Christy Nome obviously made a decision to go
2:06:48
Speaker 1: down the Maga road. She obviously wouldn't jump in if
2:06:52
Speaker 1: Trump wouldn't endorse her. Does he? Does Trump want to
2:06:55
Speaker 1: cross John Thune here, who he is a pretty decent
2:06:59
Speaker 1: working relationship and ship. It's a wild card that isn't crazy.
2:07:07
Speaker 1: Her numbers among the Republican base in South Dakota are
2:07:11
Speaker 1: better than Rounds's numbers, even though she might be a
2:07:15
Speaker 1: weaker candidate if she got in as the nominee, and
2:07:20
Speaker 1: it certainly would expose a lot of wounds inside the
2:07:25
Speaker 1: Republican Party. And I'm certainly how many of these divisive
2:07:28
Speaker 1: primaries do they want? Then again, if Trump wants a
2:07:33
Speaker 1: Republican Party in his image, Mike Grounds isn't part of
2:07:37
Speaker 1: that image. So I will tell you this. I've had
2:07:41
Speaker 1: Brian Begs, who is the independent candidate running in that
2:07:45
Speaker 1: race because Democrats are unlikely to nominate anybody, and Bangs
2:07:48
Speaker 1: is sort of from the Dan Osborne school of running,
2:07:51
Speaker 1: you know, sort of being an opposition but not comfortable
2:07:53
Speaker 1: associating with either of the major parties. I think you
2:07:58
Speaker 1: have to start taking a look at that candidacy. If
2:08:01
Speaker 1: Nome gets into this race, I think it's a semi
2:08:04
Speaker 1: long shot. But there's no doubt that an exit ramp
2:08:07
Speaker 1: is being constructed in the west wing for Christinoman Corey Lewandowski.
2:08:11
Speaker 1: The question is whether a there is an exit ramp
2:08:13
Speaker 1: there they would take willingly, and b whether the exit
2:08:17
Speaker 1: ramp is indeed South Dakota Senate. But just something to
2:08:22
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. And then again I go back
2:08:23
Speaker 1: to the other race. I want to mention, just don't
2:08:27
Speaker 1: sleep on Minnesota. I think Michelle Tafoya is a really
2:08:30
Speaker 1: strong recruit. She's consolidating support quickly, she's sort of getting
2:08:35
Speaker 1: She's gotten much further ahead in the primary than I
2:08:37
Speaker 1: expect her to get pretty quickly, and you could have
2:08:41
Speaker 1: a divisive primary ala Michigan between Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan,
2:08:45
Speaker 1: the lieutenant governor. She's pretty progressive. Angie Craig is more
2:08:50
Speaker 1: sort of in the Alissa Slotkin Abigail Spamberger school of
2:08:57
Speaker 1: Democratic members of Congress. But in Minnesota that might not
2:09:01
Speaker 1: be you know, she might not might not work in
2:09:06
Speaker 1: a Democratic primary. We'll see then again, Amy Klobshar being
2:09:10
Speaker 1: the likely Democratic nominee for governor. I think Angie Craig's
2:09:14
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an Ami Clobshar Democrat than
2:09:16
Speaker 1: the lieutenant governor is. But keep an eye on that primary.
2:09:21
Speaker 1: If it gets messy, if it gets gaza, if you
2:09:24
Speaker 1: get gazed up a little bit, and maybe it does,
2:09:26
Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't. Right, we know Michigan's gonna does that
2:09:31
Speaker 1: does that divide the party a little bit and does
2:09:33
Speaker 1: it end up helping Tafoya? I think if this were
2:09:35
Speaker 1: not I think Tafoya would be a stronger candidate for
2:09:38
Speaker 1: Senati if Donald Trump weren't president at the moment, like
2:09:41
Speaker 1: I think, as an outsider, maybe even as a challenger.
2:09:45
Speaker 1: And so you know, this could be the first of
2:09:48
Speaker 1: two campaigns. Remember, if Clobshar wins the gubernatorial race, they'll
2:09:52
Speaker 1: be immediately another seat up in twenty eight because there'll
2:09:54
Speaker 1: be a special election to fill out that to fill
2:09:57
Speaker 1: out clover Shar's term. So, you know, Tafoya against an
2:10:02
Speaker 1: appointed senator in twenty eight if she, you know, runs
2:10:08
Speaker 1: a respectable race that you know does like you know
2:10:11
Speaker 1: what we're watching potentially in Michigan with Mike Rogers. It's
2:10:13
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Last time lost in a competitive race.
2:10:16
Speaker 1: Now he's there again this time, so Minnesota's on that
2:10:20
Speaker 1: watch list. I think the overall national environment makes it
2:10:23
Speaker 1: an uphill battle for Tafoya, makes it an uphill battle
2:10:26
Speaker 1: against the wind. It was already an uphill battle. Now
2:10:28
Speaker 1: she's got wind in her face. The political win, but
2:10:33
Speaker 1: it's possible. This is the You know that this is
2:10:36
Speaker 1: just year one of a four year of a basically
2:10:39
Speaker 1: a three year campaign to eventually get to the US
2:10:41
Speaker 1: Senate in twenty twenty eight. So there you go. There's
2:10:44
Speaker 1: my top five. Let me recount it. Number one North Carolina,
2:10:47
Speaker 1: number two, Main number three, Michigan, number four, Alaska, number five,
2:10:50
Speaker 1: Texas most likely to flip. And I will just tell
2:10:53
Speaker 1: you this. I think we all know our two political parties,
2:10:57
Speaker 1: Paxton versus Crockett the ultimate sort of matchup where the
2:11:04
Speaker 1: party elites didn't want either nominee. I think, for where
2:11:08
Speaker 1: our politics are headed, that might be the more intriguing matchup.
2:11:13
Speaker 1: All right, let's take some questions, ask Chuck. All right,
2:11:19
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, it's late for me. Well, it's actually
2:11:22
Speaker 1: very early Wednesday morning as I'm tapping this. Because I
2:11:25
Speaker 1: wanted you guys to have the most up to date feed,
2:11:27
Speaker 1: So I'm only going to do three questions. First three
2:11:31
Speaker 1: on my list. Tyler, Salt Lake City. What strikes me
2:11:36
Speaker 1: about all this recent tariff business is that since Trump's
2:11:39
Speaker 1: tariffs are struck down, it feels as though Trump and
2:11:43
Speaker 1: AI are fighting against American business owners. They basically said,
2:11:47
Speaker 1: there's no way you're getting any of the tariff money back,
2:11:49
Speaker 1: almost as if American business owners are the enemy as
2:11:52
Speaker 1: well as the country on whom Trump wants to impost tariffs.
2:11:55
Speaker 1: I suppose it's really no surprise. Ultimately Trump's interest seemed
2:11:57
Speaker 1: to land on himself only. Look, I I agree, and
2:12:00
Speaker 1: I think that this is what's going to happen. He's
2:12:02
Speaker 1: going to have lawsuits and this is what we, like
2:12:06
Speaker 1: I said, we talked about last April, which is eventually
2:12:10
Speaker 1: this is going to end up costing the government more
2:12:12
Speaker 1: money than they ever collect. Right, He's we're going to
2:12:15
Speaker 1: have to give them money back. The federal government's going
2:12:18
Speaker 1: to get sued. These folks are going to get their
2:12:20
Speaker 1: money back, and no doubt it'll get spent twice, which
2:12:24
Speaker 1: means it'll only double, you know, probably cost us even
2:12:28
Speaker 1: more in our debt and You're right, it is. You know,
2:12:32
Speaker 1: it's particularly small business owners, right. The tariffs hit small
2:12:37
Speaker 1: business owners more than any other part of this economy.
2:12:43
Speaker 1: Next question Scott c Plas Sidus, New Mexico. Hey, I
2:12:46
Speaker 1: see that Trump has pulled his endorsement of Colorado Congressman
2:12:51
Speaker 1: Jeff Heard and his endorsement primary challenger Hope Schleppmann. Congressman
2:12:54
Speaker 1: Herd spoken against the tariffs and is in favor of
2:12:56
Speaker 1: the scota's decision. Do you think that Congressman Heard or
2:12:58
Speaker 1: other city of congressman person's running against a Trump endorse
2:13:00
Speaker 1: primary challenger could win their primaries. If so, who are
2:13:03
Speaker 1: likely candidates and would it be a sign of some
2:13:05
Speaker 1: rust in the joints of Trump's armors. As always, thanks
2:13:07
Speaker 1: for all you offer us. We are Richard Forrett, Well,
2:13:09
Speaker 1: thank you for saying that. Look, this is one of
2:13:11
Speaker 1: my favorite primaries to watch because I do think if
2:13:14
Speaker 1: Trump wants to continue to rule the party by fear,
2:13:18
Speaker 1: he's got to be willing to use his endorsement to
2:13:23
Speaker 1: punish anybody that doesn't go along with his with his agenda.
2:13:28
Speaker 1: This is very dangerous to do. This is a tough
2:13:30
Speaker 1: district and heard one of close race, and now he's
2:13:34
Speaker 1: only making it harder, which means that House, the House
2:13:37
Speaker 1: Republican Majority Committee's going to have to spend money to try
2:13:39
Speaker 1: to save an incumbent against a presidentially endorsed like saying
2:13:42
Speaker 1: what happened with Massy? I think they're worth watching, right
2:13:47
Speaker 1: if especially you know we're going to find out. I
2:13:51
Speaker 1: think Herd's primary is not till August and Massey, He's
2:13:55
Speaker 1: going to take place in May and Massie and Kentucky.
2:13:57
Speaker 1: I think we'll tell us, we'll tell us, We'll tell
2:14:02
Speaker 1: us what the atmosphere is right, how how to vote
2:14:05
Speaker 1: it is the president's base to the president. I think
2:14:09
Speaker 1: we'll get a clue on Herd's chances in May with
2:14:13
Speaker 1: the Massy primary in Kentucky. All right, last question comes
2:14:16
Speaker 1: from Mike and Honolulu. Hey there, thank you for all
2:14:19
Speaker 1: the work you do on the podcast. First thing I
2:14:20
Speaker 1: listened to on the days you drop nice So seeing
2:14:23
Speaker 1: articles on Maha pesticide fight stalling and Florida Rep. Maria
2:14:27
Speaker 1: Alvirus Salazar's Dignity Act, et cetera. How much will all
2:14:30
Speaker 1: these really move voters at the midterms. I feel like
2:14:32
Speaker 1: I've met a lot of folks over the past few years,
2:14:33
Speaker 1: and in spite of disappointment or frustrations, have still supported
2:14:37
Speaker 1: the Republican ticket. Thanks Mike and Honolulu. Well, I look
2:14:40
Speaker 1: at it. I think I've compared it to erosion of
2:14:43
Speaker 1: a riverbed. Right, you don't see it every day if
2:14:46
Speaker 1: you check the river bed every day, but if you
2:14:48
Speaker 1: come back once a month, then you can notice when
2:14:50
Speaker 1: the riverbed is eroding. And I don't think any of
2:14:54
Speaker 1: these these things, you know, take take their toll cumulatively
2:15:00
Speaker 1: a bit, and I think you know it's these little
2:15:04
Speaker 1: chip away So you lose some Maha moms because essentially,
2:15:08
Speaker 1: you know, Monsanto bought Trump's executive order on the pesticides
2:15:13
Speaker 1: thing with a massive donation. You know, are you losing
2:15:17
Speaker 1: everybody in support of Kennedy. No, but you're losing a
2:15:19
Speaker 1: little bit. You're going to lose some small business owners
2:15:21
Speaker 1: under your insistence on continuing to execute this terraf regime. Right,
2:15:26
Speaker 1: You're going to lose a few of the civil libertarians
2:15:28
Speaker 1: on how you've handled Ice. You're certainly going to lose
2:15:34
Speaker 1: some in the who didn't want military adventurism, whether it's
2:15:39
Speaker 1: Venezuela or Ran or elsewhere. Right, and it's just chip away,
2:15:44
Speaker 1: chip away, chip away. And if you look at the
2:15:45
Speaker 1: national poll numbers for him, he doesn't gain supporters at
2:15:49
Speaker 1: the moment. He hasn't gained supporters in a long time.
2:15:53
Speaker 1: It is literally he's rowing a boat with holes in it,
2:15:56
Speaker 1: and he's got somebody trying to get water out of
2:15:59
Speaker 1: the boat so it doesn't sink, and they're trying to row,
2:16:02
Speaker 1: and water's coming and he's taking on water and so
2:16:06
Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's a slow leak. Maybe he can
2:16:08
Speaker 1: get to shore before the boat sinks. But I take
2:16:13
Speaker 1: your look, and I think it is again, I don't
2:16:16
Speaker 1: look at it to his base supporters, it's really about
2:16:19
Speaker 1: independence in this fast medal. You know, where he's got
2:16:22
Speaker 1: to worry his supporters or is supporters excited about what
2:16:25
Speaker 1: he's doing or are they simply devoted and saying, oh no,
2:16:27
Speaker 1: it hasn't changed. But are they going to crawl and
2:16:29
Speaker 1: broken glass to vote right? You know, this is where
2:16:34
Speaker 1: I have skepticism about the rural communities in the agricultural Midwest.
2:16:39
Speaker 1: I mean, farmers have taken it on the chin with
2:16:41
Speaker 1: these tariffs. You know, this is this is why I
2:16:46
Speaker 1: I'd be fascinated to watch a Republican primary in South
2:16:49
Speaker 1: Dakota between Nome and Rounds, Rounds who has been a
2:16:53
Speaker 1: skeptic of these tariffs, and Nome who will have no
2:16:54
Speaker 1: choice but to defend the president on it. That you know,
2:16:58
Speaker 1: it's it's like, okay, let's see it. Let's see what
2:17:00
Speaker 1: a campaign like that looks like. There's no primary in
2:17:02
Speaker 1: Iowa on the Republican side that's active, but that'd be
2:17:06
Speaker 1: another one where if you did, you would you'd possibly
2:17:09
Speaker 1: have a divide on how the tariffs impact the economy
2:17:13
Speaker 1: in the Midwest. So I look at all of that
2:17:20
Speaker 1: and it's just sort of chip away, chip away, chip away,
2:17:22
Speaker 1: chip away. You know, you're not going to have this massive.
2:17:26
Speaker 1: What you're going to have is some people just don't
2:17:30
Speaker 1: show up the vote. Others maybe do vote third party,
2:17:36
Speaker 1: and still others may actually cross the aisle, at least
2:17:38
Speaker 1: in congressional ways, because you can you can rationalize voting
2:17:44
Speaker 1: for the other party and still be a Trump supporter.
2:17:47
Speaker 1: But you may think, you know, what, he needs a
2:17:49
Speaker 1: little check or the government needs a check, and I
2:17:52
Speaker 1: don't like these tariffs, I like Trump doing these other things,
2:17:56
Speaker 1: but you know, let me get Congress to hold him
2:17:58
Speaker 1: back on tariffs. You know, that's another it's a in
2:18:03
Speaker 1: some ways the opposition to Trump is almost penalty free,
2:18:07
Speaker 1: if if in some of the in in some cases
2:18:10
Speaker 1: here for some of these Midwestern governors or Midwestern voters.
2:18:14
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's a you're right that one
2:18:22
Speaker 1: isn't going to like cause this massive groundswell of people
2:18:26
Speaker 1: leaving them. But it's the chip aways. It's the political
2:18:32
Speaker 1: death by a thousand cuts. All right, I'm gonna go
2:18:35
Speaker 1: get some sleep. Thank you for tuning in, thanks for
2:18:39
Speaker 1: sticking around, and I'll see you in twenty four hours.