Latest / The Front / Mossad’s next job: destroy the Houthis

Transcript

Mossad’s next job: destroy the Houthis · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It's Friday, January two, twenty twenty six.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: A devilishly difficult.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: New Year job awaits the Israeli Intelligence agency more sad
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: how to deal with a fractured, degraded, but still seriously
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: dangerous guerrilla movement in Yemen, just south of Saudi Arabia.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: It's the Hoofies, a deeply antisemitic terror movement with nothing
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to lose and the capacity to catastrophically disrupt international trade
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: whenever they like. Just like Hesbella and her Maas, the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Hoofies were backed by Iran and have suffered serious setbacks
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: at the hands of the Israeli military. But they're not
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: out of play. So how dangerous are the Hoofies now?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is here. Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: international correspondent and this year one of our highest rating
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: episodes of the Front has been a conversation Cameron and
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I had about the Hoofies in Yemen. Cam it felt
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: at the time like a bit of a niche subject
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: that we kind of needed to explain. I needed to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: understand it better and you stepped up to talk me
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: through it. It's amazing to me how much it resonated
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: around the world. That episode has had huge traffic on
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, on Spotify, and on YouTube. It's clearly a
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: conflict or a situation in Yemen that the world wants
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: to understand. But let's just talk a little bit about
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: who the Hoofies are. Their motto is God is Great,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: victory to Islam. It's a pretty unequivocal slogan.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Isn't it.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Yes, they're not big on subdity, but I think people
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: are fascinated, Claire, because there was so much focus on Gaza,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: where so much of the fighting was, but also on
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Lebanon with Hesbala, and a lot of interest in Iran
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: and the attacks on the nuclear facilities. But the Hooths
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: were there as a big part of this broader Middle
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Eastern conflict since October seven. And they're a very unusual
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: group because firstly, they can't be subjugated in a way
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: that Hesbolla was and how Mas has been, and even
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Iran to a degree has been. The Hooths were born
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: as a sort of guerrilla style army if you like,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: they've got a site background. The best way to see
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: the conflict in Yemen is really Shite versus Sunny, a
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: classic Muslim divide, and the Hooths are the Shahite side
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: of that. There's a slight minority in the country, but
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: they're about forty percent. This is the Shahites. And so
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: they're a rebel group who was very upset and angry
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: and had nutrising against the Sunni controlled government, which is
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: backed by Saudi Arabia. So the Iranians back the Houthis
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: because they're Shite, and the Swordies back the standing government.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: And so really, in a way, the conflict in Yem
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: was a proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: the Huthis were backed by Iran and also by Lebanon.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: And they're an interesting group because they're a very decentralized
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: guerrilla style army. It's fighters, its weaponry, and its leaders
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: move constantly. They're very battle hardened. They've fought the civil
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: war for about twenty years. I mean, it's been a
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: disaster for the yemin Y people, Claire, I mean, very
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: very poor standard of living. It's a pretty brutal place
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: to live. But the Houthis are battle hardened. As I said,
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: They've fought on and off for two decades. They win
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: local support by portraying themselves as the hero of a
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: holy war, fending off the great Satans of the US,
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia and Israel. They're virulently anti Semitic, and they
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: justify their current campaign and against Israel as a show
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: of solidarity for Palestinians in Gaza.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: They won a lot of popularity in the Muslim world.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I think cam by supporting Her Mask, which of course
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: is a Sunni organization, so coming from the different side
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: of Islam. It's a bit like the divide I suppose
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. But their way
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of supporting Her Mask was a few different methods. One
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: was firing on Israel and the other was blocking shipping
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: in the Red Sea. Why was that so important and
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: why did it have such an outsize impact on the world.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it really sees the world's attention just because the
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: Red Sea is a massive source of maritime traffic. It's
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: a critical link for world trade, and the.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Hoothies are there.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: They control the northwestern part of Yemen, and that is
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: right on the border of the Red Sea, so very
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: easy for the hooth Is to start attacking shipping. And
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: what they did was they attacked israel shiping that had
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: connections to Israel, but they even went broader than that
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: at the height and were attacking almost random shipping coming through.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: And of course these shipping companies cleared their private shipping companies,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of them. They've got to make profits, and
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: they couldn't get insurance on the ships that it was dangerous,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: so they had to go the long way around Africa.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, this added a huge amounts of cost onto
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: international trade. It affected world markets, and the Hoofy campaign
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: against the shipping actually killed nine people and four ships.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: It totally upended shipping through to the Red Sea and
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: about one trillion dollars of goods passes through that each year,
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: so that's why it made so many headlines and it
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: was such a headache for the Israelis, but also for
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: the Americans of course as well. Donald Trump was furious
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: with the Hoothis, and in fact the US delivered a
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: series of major attacks on the Hoothies earlier this year
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: to try and stop them from actually targeting the Red Sea.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: In May this year, Israel kind of made their first
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: really concerted attack on the Hoofies in this conflict, a
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: bunch of air strikes, and that was in response to
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: some very successful Hoofy attacks on Israel. They fired ballistic
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: missiles on Israel's main airport, Benngurian Airport and Tel Aviv.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So let's talk first about that attack cam back in May.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: That was just after a ceasefire had ended in Gaza,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: wasn't it.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: That's right, And I think the Israelis were shocked, to
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: be honest, I mean, I mean, Yeman's a long way away,
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: and they were shocked that the Hoothies could fire such
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: long range weaponry and actually hit Israel. And in fact,
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: from that point Israel took the defense against the hoos
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: It's defense far more seriously, and most of the Hoothy
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: attacks with these missiles were actually shot down long before
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: they got to Israeli territory. But it really pricked the
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: attention of the Israelis, who are of course extremely distracted
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: by other conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Also with the Hooths,
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: it's a bit of a David and Goliath think they're
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: not a massive force, they're not a massive army, and
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: so to be shooting long range missiles at Israel when
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: they know how technically sophisticated Israeli was a very brazen move.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: I think it really did surprise people, and the Israelis
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: came fairly hard back of the Houthis. But we had
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: a remarkable thing happened in May Claire. And that's when
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump, after having bombed the Hoothys fairly heavily, abruptly
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: stopped and made a deal. And the deal was that
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: the US would stop the attack on the Hooths if
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: they stopped their attacks on US shipping through the Red Sea.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: But interestingly, Trump did not include Israeli in that, and
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: a lot of people were puzzled by that. He didn't
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: say you've got to stop your attacks on Israeli shipping.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: He actually left Israel to deal with the Houthis separately.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: But that actually was one part, and the Houthis agreed
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: to that. And so the US attacks on the Hoof
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: he stopped, and the Hothier attacks on your shipping in
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the Red Sea stopped.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: At the same time, it didn't stop the Israelis Throughout
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: June and July, the Israeli Navy was attacking many ports
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: and attacking the Hoofies. And then in August came the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: attack that prompted the episode that we talked about cam.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: That was where the Israeli Air Force fired on a
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: group of the most senior Hoofie leaders when they were
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: gathering in the capital Sinar to watch a televised speech
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: by their leader. Just talk me through the significance of
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that attack and the planning of it and why it
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: was such a big deal.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a very clever attack by Israel. They
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: did a couple of fake intelligence flags where they made
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: the Hoofies believe that the Israelis didn't have a great
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: handle on the intelligence on their movements, and of course
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: Israel was effectively filling them. And it was an amazing strike.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: They all gathered in the same building, which is really
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: one of what you don't do in that situation, and
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: it killed the Prime Minister and a lot of the
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: most senior officials. It was in late August, and the
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: Hoothies for a while denied it or nowhere you didn't
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: you killed nobody. Then that finally came out that they
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: did and I think that made a big impact.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: It really shocked the Hoothi leadership.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: They claimed, oh, we're going to get the Great Sate
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: and we're going to fire back at Israel.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: And they did fire a little bit.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: But I think, I really think that had a huge
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: impact on the Hoofes in just making them more gunshy
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: because they realized that even from that distance, Israel good
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: a detect where they were and b actually hit them.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It capped a pretty incredible year for the Israeli defense forces.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: They had, with their collaboration of Mossad very successfully dismantled
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Hesbala in Lebanon, with the attacks on the pages and
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: then the walkie talkies, they had an incredibly successful attack
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: on Iran that they called Operation Rising Line, ultimately supported
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: by the United States, and of course they had significant
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: successes in Gaza itself. How did the attack on the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Hoofies kind of play into what seems to have been
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a successful, very successful year for Israel.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, that was in a way that cherry on
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: top for Israel was that very successful attack against the
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: hooth Is. And yet in a way, I mean, Israel
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: sort of subjugated Iran to a large degree, with its
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: attacks on it synaclear facilities. It's certainly subjugated Hesbala, it's
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: certainly decimated Hamas in Gaza, but it still hasn't really
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: despite that attack on the leadership of the hooth Is,
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: it hasn't destroyed the hooth Is as organization. I mean,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: they are to centralize their gorillas. They're in the hills,
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: They're a long way from Israel. It's much harder for
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: Israel to mount a major campaign. So look, houth is
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: a very much alive still as a military and political force. Yes,
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: they're a bit more Gunshi after that attack by Israel,
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: but they are still there. They still exist. And one
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: of the great questions now, Claire, is that now the
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: hooth Is have lost their shee, it's much harder for
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: Iran to get supplies to the hooth Is. Now Hesbella
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: has been decimated. It's going to be much harder to
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: get money and weapons from Lebanon and Iran to the Hoothis.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: So I think there's a long term question here of
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: what sort of effect that eventually does have on the
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: Hoothy's ability to keep fighting their civil workers. The civil
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: war is still sort of a laten civil war that
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: is still happening, and so what will be the long
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: term prognosis of this That's something we're going to have
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: to wait and see.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Coming up. Mossard patiently took down Hezbala over decades, but
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the Hoofies are different. So what's the strategy that's after
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the break? Yemen is such a sad story, isn't it.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Cam It's yet another Middle Eastern country where people have
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: been cursed by corruption and civil war over the years.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: It's just on the southern tip of Saudi Arabia. Its
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: neighbors are Imman and then of course Africa. It's between
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. But what's
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the future for Yemen now that the Hoofees are in
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: this very different situation.
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's a possibility that the civil war could
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: start again in earnest. It would depend how much effort
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: the US and Sordi Arabia want to do in actually
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: backing the Sunni side of the conflict, and it's unclear
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: actually how much.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: They want to do that.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: If they see that the hoof Is are vulnerable, they
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: may push and go for another wave to try and
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: attack them and take more ground. But look, It really
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: does seem more like a stalemate at the moment, Claire.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: And as you say, the real victims here are the
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: people of Yemen in this very poor country. There's no
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: obvious roadmap to a peace solution here, and I think
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: as far as the West goes, they're probably more inclined
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: to just want to keep the Hoothys under some sort
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: of control and not have them attack a shipping in
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: the Red Sea and b Israel.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think it will have an effect on
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: trade routes more generally? Can like will those changes that
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: shipping companies had to make to take different, much longer routes,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: will they now be more entrenched or do you think
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: it'll just go back to normal.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: I think it'll go.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: Back to normal because a commerce is commerce. People want
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: to have low costs, and if they can get through
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: passages like the Red Sea, they'll go for it. And
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: that's what's happening now. But I mean, the hooth has
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: had this in their back pocket, don't they. They've shown
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: that they can do it before, they've shown they can
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: do it again at short notice. And that's something that
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: the Americans, the Israelis, and frankly the world trading community
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: will be very anxious to not let them do again.
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: But I think the Hooths have the potential to do
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: it again, and I think if something flares up. In fact,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: a very good point here is that if the ceasefire
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: in Gaza collapses, I think you will see the hooth
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: Is firing missiles again at Israel, and possibly even firing
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: missiles again at ships in the Red Sea, because what
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: they've said is that they'll cease their hostilities in respect
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: of the ceasefire, but only so long as it lasts.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: If the ceasefire collapses, which of course it could, it's.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Still quite fragile, then you might well see the hoof
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: is firing yet again, and the whole thing will flare
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: up yet again.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: You'd assume that now it's on Mossad to try to
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: disrupt them in the kind of long grind of intelligence
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: that they used against Hesbala. Twenty years of planning went
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: into those pager and walkie talkie attacks that Mossad pulled off.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Would you think that's going to be more difficult with
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the hoof Is, given how spread out they are and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: how kind of decentralized.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: Y's definitely more difficult but certainly not insurmountable as we
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: saw with that attack in late August, and the hooth
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Is to be very aware of that.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: But I think you're right.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: I think the Israelis realize they can't exactly eradicate the
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: hooth Is in the way they've almost done with Hesbala
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: and Amas.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: There's going to be a long term problem for them.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: And I think moss will be very much on the
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: ball and will be lifted in their priority rankings on
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: the whiteboards in the Mossad headquarters.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see those. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Chief International correspondent.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Thanks Cam, Thanks Claire.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's Chief international correspondent and one
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: of our favorite guests here on the podcast. Together with
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan and our correspondents around the world,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Cam helps shape unrivaled global coverage every day at the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au