Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The GOP’s LAST CHANCE For Midterms Redemption

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The GOP’s LAST CHANCE For Midterms Redemption · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Is all hope lost for Republicans?
• 0:03
  Well,
• 0:03
  maybe not.
• 0:04
  I have one last factor in the midterms to talk about today,
• 0:06
  and I think that could
• 0:08
  be some positive rays of light for Republicans.
• 0:10
  We'll get into that.
• 0:11
  We'll look also at the wild presidential election results out
• 0:13
  of Brazil and see if they have anything to do
• 0:16
  and say about the overall accuracy
• 0:18
  of prediction markets,
• 0:19
  and today's candidate countdown is going to encompass an entire group.
• 0:24
  Mostly of psychopaths,
• 0:25
  we'll get into that
• 0:25
  as well.
• 0:26
  More and so much more,
• 0:28
  honestly,
• 0:29
  uh,
• 0:29
  coming up on this episode of Predictable with Sue.
• 0:31
  Thanks for hanging out with us and join us at predictableshow.com.
• 0:49
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:51
  I don't know if my eyes are just getting worse
• 0:53
  at this point,
• 0:54
  or,
• 0:55
  uh,
• 0:55
  it's just that I've been staring constantly at screens,
• 0:58
  uh,
• 0:58
  for months now,
• 0:59
  getting ready for this election,
• 1:00
  which is only,
• 1:01
  uh,
• 1:01
  8 days away.
• 1:02
  Um,
• 1:02
  I want you to join us on YouTube.
• 1:04
  I was looking at some numbers today,
• 1:05
  something like 70% of the people who watch the show
• 1:08
  are not subscribers to the channel.
• 1:10
  Um,
• 1:10
  so I would love for you to become a subscriber of the channel.
• 1:13
  It would mean a lot to us and help us grow.
• 1:15
  And help us have,
• 1:16
  you know,
• 1:16
  quality
• 1:17
  prediction market
• 1:18
  content because
• 1:20
  honestly,
• 1:20
  there's some stuff out there that's good,
• 1:21
  some stuff that's not so good,
• 1:23
  uh,
• 1:23
  but this is a growing,
• 1:24
  uh,
• 1:24
  space right now and,
• 1:26
  uh,
• 1:27
  it would be great if you could help us
• 1:28
  make this into a,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:29
  an even bigger operation with even more research and
• 1:31
  all the other things that we wanna do.
• 1:33
  Uh,
• 1:33
  so help us out,
• 1:34
  go to youtube.com/atpredictableshow,
• 1:36
  follow the channel,
• 1:37
  click the bell for notifications,
• 1:39
  do all the things that please the algorithm robots.
• 1:42
  Because if you don't,
• 1:43
  you know what robots do in every movie.
• 1:45
  They eventually turn on you and kill you.
• 1:47
  So if you want to be murdered by a robot,
• 1:49
  that's fine,
• 1:51
  or go to YouTube.com/atpredictableshow,
• 1:53
  just a recommendation.
• 1:54
  8 days until the midterm elections.
• 1:57
  We are here,
• 1:58
  um,
• 1:58
  we have,
• 1:59
  I,
• 1:59
  I wanted you to know,
• 2:00
  um,
• 2:00
  we're gonna be doing a live stream
• 2:02
  on election night
• 2:03
  that is going to encompass the
• 2:05
  entire night from like the beginning when polls are just starting to close
• 2:09
  all the way through
• 2:10
  till
• 2:12
  I would say every seat is called,
• 2:13
  but that's not true because Alaska probably won't be called
• 2:16
  for a long time and California will be counting,
• 2:18
  you know,
• 2:18
  ballots in 2035.
• 2:20
  So it won't be every,
• 2:21
  every seat,
• 2:21
  but
• 2:22
  as many as we can and hopefully at least
• 2:24
  to figure out whether there's gonna be control of the House and the Senate,
• 2:27
  any big races,
• 2:28
  any opportunities that we can come up with on prediction markets
• 2:31
  as well.
• 2:31
  That's what we'll be looking for and we will be on
• 2:33
  November 3rd for hours and hours and hours and hours.
• 2:35
  Hopefully my stupid voice holds up.
• 2:37
  Cause sometimes it doesn't like that.
• 2:39
  Uh,
• 2:39
  but you know what?
• 2:40
  Drugs.
• 2:42
  OK?
• 2:43
  If it gets difficult for me,
• 2:44
  I will just do illicit drugs,
• 2:46
  and then the show will get much more exciting.
• 2:48
  We have early voting going on in 43 states right now.
• 2:52
  43 states.
• 2:53
  And here's the,
• 2:53
  this is the,
• 2:54
  the,
• 2:54
  you know,
• 2:54
  we give you the schedule update all the time.
• 2:56
  Who's left?
• 2:57
  Washington DC October 26th,
• 2:59
  Oklahoma,
• 2:59
  October 28th,
• 3:00
  Kentucky,
• 3:01
  October 29th,
• 3:02
  and that's the whole list.
• 3:04
  Yeah,
• 3:04
  that's it.
• 3:05
  We're up to what,
• 3:06
  I mean,
• 3:07
  Washington,
• 3:07
  DC,
• 3:07
  so 45 states.
• 3:08
  There's a few states that don't have early voting.
• 3:11
  Interesting.
• 3:12
  I remember,
• 3:12
  uh,
• 3:13
  when we were having this Georgia controversy when,
• 3:15
  uh,
• 3:15
  when everyone was saying
• 3:16
  that Georgia's laws were going to ruin democracy and
• 3:20
  then they had more people voting than ever before.
• 3:22
  And when that whole controversy was going on,
• 3:23
  we all realized that,
• 3:24
  hey,
• 3:24
  there's a bunch of left-wing states that don't have early voting at all.
• 3:27
  They don't seem to have any problem with it whatsoever.
• 3:29
  Uh,
• 3:29
  very strange,
• 3:30
  uh,
• 3:30
  arguments being made on both sides.
• 3:32
  But I wanna kind of look at where we are,
• 3:34
  as we're 8 days away from the election.
• 3:36
  What does control look like?
• 3:38
  What do these races look like?
• 3:40
  Can you believe the media?
• 3:41
  Can you believe the polls?
• 3:44
  There's a couple of different factors here.
• 3:47
  I
• 3:48
  wanna be honest with you,
• 3:49
  and I,
• 3:50
  I've been honest with you this entire time.
• 3:52
  I get bored with the whole walking your party line thing that a lot of people wanna do.
• 3:58
  You know,
• 3:58
  a lot of people wanna root for something and tell you it's gonna come true,
• 4:01
  and,
• 4:02
  and frankly,
• 4:03
  I don't like doing that.
• 4:04
  It doesn't,
• 4:04
  it's not interesting to me.
• 4:06
  Um,
• 4:07
  you know,
• 4:07
  I like to get hope sometimes.
• 4:08
  I like to look for the rays of sunshine.
• 4:10
  There's nothing wrong with that.
• 4:11
  Uh,
• 4:11
  if you happen to be a Republican or conservative,
• 4:13
  it's been kind of cloudy weather,
• 4:15
  right?
• 4:15
  Like things have not looked so good in the polls.
• 4:18
  And
• 4:19
  you can say you don't believe the polls,
• 4:20
  you can say you don't believe prediction markets,
• 4:22
  you can say you don't believe the news.
• 4:23
  All that's totally uh up to you.
• 4:26
  One thing that is believable though,
• 4:28
  is where Republicans are putting their money.
• 4:30
  And right now,
• 4:31
  Republicans are putting their money in states like Mississippi.
• 4:36
  South Carolina,
• 4:37
  Nebraska,
• 4:38
  Kansas,
• 4:39
  Texas.
• 4:41
  These states are getting flooded with money from Republican groups,
• 4:45
  uh,
• 4:46
  super PACs,
• 4:47
  campaigns,
• 4:48
  all that stuff.
• 4:49
  It's all going to that type of state.
• 4:51
  They've given up on states like
• 4:52
  North Carolina and Georgia,
• 4:53
  for example.
• 4:54
  Uh,
• 4:55
  there's really no money going into those races at this point.
• 4:59
  So the question is,
• 5:00
  because that's what the Republicans are seeing now.
• 5:02
  Republicans
• 5:03
  have been known at times for their incompetence.
• 5:05
  So it's possible there's wrong,
• 5:07
  right?
• 5:07
  Maybe they're overstating the doom level here
• 5:09
  and they're just playing defense and saying,
• 5:11
  look,
• 5:11
  let's just not lose all these states,
• 5:13
  we'll see what happens.
• 5:14
  That's possible,
• 5:15
  and they could just be wrong.
• 5:17
  Um,
• 5:17
  and I think there are some
• 5:20
  reasons to believe that things have improved recently
• 5:23
  for Republicans.
• 5:24
  I wanna go through some of that data with you.
• 5:26
  This,
• 5:26
  uh,
• 5:26
  I'll give you,
• 5:27
  we'll start here with YouGov.
• 5:28
  YouGov is a pollster,
• 5:29
  been around for a long time.
• 5:30
  We featured them before,
• 5:31
  and I wanna make sure you understand that we featured them about a month ago.
• 5:34
  The reason I want to tell you about that is because we featured them in the light of
• 5:38
  really negative results for conservatives and Republicans.
• 5:42
  Um,
• 5:43
  in fact,
• 5:43
  they,
• 5:44
  when they turned on their likely voter screen,
• 5:46
  it was so negative for,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:49
  Republicans,
• 5:50
  it seemed almost unbelievable.
• 5:51
  Like it would be worse than any election
• 5:53
  that has happened,
• 5:54
  uh,
• 5:55
  in a very,
• 5:55
  you know,
• 5:56
  in a very,
• 5:56
  very long time for either party.
• 5:59
  Here's their headline today.
• 5:59
  Are Republicans catching up
• 6:01
  in the race
• 6:02
  for Congress?
• 6:03
  There is some
• 6:04
  evidence for this.
• 6:05
  We are seeing
• 6:06
  some bounce back in states like Texas,
• 6:09
  in states like Iowa,
• 6:10
  in states,
• 6:11
  uh,
• 6:12
  strength in states like Florida continuing.
• 6:15
  Uh,
• 6:15
  there are some bright spots for,
• 6:17
  uh,
• 6:18
  the red parts of the map.
• 6:20
  I wanna go through some of this data to show you
• 6:23
  some indications of this.
• 6:25
  And
• 6:25
  there are indications
• 6:27
  of it if you,
• 6:28
  you,
• 6:28
  you gotta squint maybe a little bit sometimes,
• 6:30
  and it doesn't mean that we're going from
• 6:32
  bad news or horrible news to good news.
• 6:34
  That's not what this data is showing.
• 6:36
  What it's showing is
• 6:37
  horrible news to less bad news.
• 6:40
  At this point,
• 6:41
  you're either going to have a very bad year
• 6:43
  for Republicans or a very bad year for polls.
• 6:45
  Those are the two options.
• 6:47
  You can't really have
• 6:49
  Good poll a good polling year,
• 6:51
  um,
• 6:52
  and,
• 6:52
  and say,
• 6:53
  OK,
• 6:54
  Republicans did well.
• 6:55
  At this point,
• 6:56
  polling is pretty much saying
• 6:58
  really bad things
• 6:59
  for
• 7:00
  Republicans.
• 7:01
  And,
• 7:01
  you know,
• 7:02
  prediction markets are echoing much of that sentiment.
• 7:04
  However,
• 7:06
  We have some evidence that that is reversing at least to some level,
• 7:09
  and I wanna show you this.
• 7:10
  This is an important concept to understand.
• 7:13
  As you are leading up to an election,
• 7:16
  most pollsters
• 7:17
  will ask very broad categories of people,
• 7:21
  sometimes even adults.
• 7:22
  I never like a poll about adults.
• 7:24
  Adults,
• 7:25
  uh,
• 7:25
  and you might say,
• 7:26
  well,
• 7:26
  what do you want a poll of kids?
• 7:27
  No.
• 7:27
  What I want is a poll of registered voters at least.
• 7:30
  Adults means anybody,
• 7:32
  they're not even registered to vote.
• 7:33
  And so at that point they're very unreliable as to
• 7:36
  whether they would go to the polls or not.
• 7:37
  As we all know,
• 7:38
  a lot of people don't.
• 7:39
  Um,
• 7:40
  so registered voters is that first,
• 7:42
  that,
• 7:42
  you know,
• 7:42
  you have adults and then you have the first kind of,
• 7:44
  uh,
• 7:46
  hurdle to clear is,
• 7:47
  are you registered to vote?
• 7:49
  If you are,
• 7:50
  you're put into a lot of these polls.
• 7:51
  If you're not,
• 7:51
  a lot of times you're just kind of tossed to the side.
• 7:54
  Now,
• 7:55
  it goes farther than that,
• 7:56
  as you get closer to the election.
• 7:57
  They start putting on likely voter screens.
• 8:00
  Likely,
• 8:00
  I've talked about this before,
• 8:01
  but if you missed those shows,
• 8:02
  likely voter screens are basically
• 8:04
  questions to get a little bit more invasive
• 8:06
  to try to understand whether you're actually gonna vote or not.
• 8:09
  Sometimes it's as simple as,
• 8:10
  are you sure you're gonna vote?
• 8:11
  And if you say,
• 8:12
  if you say,
• 8:12
  well,
• 8:12
  well,
• 8:13
  probably,
• 8:14
  you might not clear that likely voter
• 8:16
  category.
• 8:17
  If you say,
• 8:17
  uh,
• 8:18
  if they ask you,
• 8:18
  hey,
• 8:18
  have you voted in the last 5 elections?
• 8:20
  How many of the last 5?
• 8:21
  And you say,
• 8:22
  oh,
• 8:22
  all 5,
• 8:23
  I always vote.
• 8:24
  You're much more likely to vote in this upcoming one.
• 8:26
  If you said,
• 8:26
  well,
• 8:26
  I've never voted before and I'm 42 years old,
• 8:29
  and,
• 8:30
  uh,
• 8:30
  and I'm gonna,
• 8:30
  but I'm gonna turn out this time,
• 8:32
  you're treated as a less likely voter.
• 8:34
  All that makes kind of intuitive sense.
• 8:36
  Um,
• 8:37
  YouGov does this in an interesting way.
• 8:39
  They have multiple different screens for this.
• 8:41
  They have registered voters,
• 8:43
  they have a likely voter screen,
• 8:44
  and then they have a very strict
• 8:46
  likely voter screen,
• 8:47
  which is like only people they're pretty much are sure are going to vote.
• 8:50
  This is what their pollings look like over the past month and a half or so.
• 8:54
  Um,
• 8:54
  and what you see here,
• 8:56
  starting in the beginning of September
• 8:58
  till today,
• 8:59
  is
• 9:00
  a,
• 9:00
  a rise in the Democratic lead.
• 9:03
  The strictest screen when we featured this,
• 9:05
  I think this was the moment we featured this poll.
• 9:08
  We're talking about the best case scenario for Democrats at that time
• 9:11
  was,
• 9:12
  uh,
• 9:12
  on September 20th,
• 9:14
  that was a + 14 in the generic ballot.
• 9:17
  Again,
• 9:17
  for those,
• 9:17
  uh,
• 9:17
  people who have lives,
• 9:18
  a generic ballot
• 9:20
  is basically,
• 9:20
  hey,
• 9:21
  you're gonna vote for your local Democrat or Republican,
• 9:23
  and you can take,
• 9:24
  you can kind of get a sense of the climate of a given election.
• 9:27
  When you measure generic ballot,
• 9:29
  generic ballot is seen as one of the best,
• 9:31
  um,
• 9:32
  predictors of what's going to come up in the election,
• 9:35
  and you see
• 9:36
  that's a very strict screen.
• 9:37
  Only the most likely voters get there,
• 9:39
  a + 14.
• 9:40
  At the same time that that was going on,
• 9:42
  uh,
• 9:43
  Democrats were a 10
• 9:45
  when it comes to the what they call a loose screen.
• 9:47
  This is the normal likely voter screen,
• 9:49
  and then the registered voters,
• 9:51
  they were a plus,
• 9:52
  let's say 7.
• 9:53
  So,
• 9:54
  if you're,
• 9:54
  you know,
• 9:55
  the,
• 9:55
  the less likely you are to vote,
• 9:57
  the more Republican you were
• 9:58
  in all of these,
• 9:59
  uh,
• 10:00
  uh,
• 10:00
  screens because
• 10:02
  Republicans are not as passionate this time around.
• 10:04
  Uh,
• 10:05
  Democrats are much more,
• 10:06
  uh,
• 10:07
  showing much more energy in this election,
• 10:09
  and that is echoed in almost every single poll I've seen.
• 10:12
  But as you see,
• 10:13
  as we go from September 20th on,
• 10:15
  we see a a considerable decrease in all of these categories.
• 10:20
  Uh,
• 10:20
  if you're listening on podcast,
• 10:21
  I'll give you the sense of this.
• 10:23
  On September 20th,
• 10:24
  the strictest screen was a + 14 for Democrats.
• 10:27
  It then dropped to a +13,
• 10:28
  a +12,
• 10:29
  a +11,
• 10:30
  and now down to a +9.
• 10:32
  So it's gone from 14 to 9.
• 10:34
  It's a 5 point swing.
• 10:36
  And as far as a loose screen,
• 10:38
  this is the register normal likely voter screen.
• 10:40
  It has gone from a 10 for Democrats to a +7,
• 10:43
  so a 3-point swing.
• 10:44
  And for,
• 10:45
  uh,
• 10:45
  in the just registered voters,
• 10:47
  you've seen a drop from about 0.
• 10:49
  +7 for Democrats to +,
• 10:52
  uh,
• 10:53
  say 52 points.
• 10:55
  So.
• 10:55
  Less drop among uh registered voters than likely voters.
• 10:59
  Um,
• 10:59
  but the point here
• 11:01
  is that
• 11:01
  people who,
• 11:02
  what you're seeing here is a process we
• 11:05
  predicted
• 11:06
  on this program,
• 11:07
  which is,
• 11:07
  as you get closer to a race,
• 11:09
  as you come out of Labor Day,
• 11:11
  as you get out of the summer stuff,
• 11:13
  your kids go back to school,
• 11:15
  you start focusing on the election again,
• 11:17
  you start seeing $100 million of ads.
• 11:21
  All of a sudden,
• 11:22
  you go from,
• 11:22
  I don't really care about this election to,
• 11:24
  you know what,
• 11:24
  I actually kinda do care about this election.
• 11:26
  And now I am gonna make sure I get out and vote.
• 11:28
  You may have said in September,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:31
  I'm not that passionate.
• 11:32
  Now you are passionate,
• 11:33
  right?
• 11:34
  That's why they run these ads,
• 11:35
  to get you out of the house.
• 11:37
  So
• 11:38
  that is what's happening with this data.
• 11:40
  We see a,
• 11:41
  a,
• 11:41
  a similar thing happening in
• 11:43
  the propensity of people who are very likely,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:45
  that they will definitely vote.
• 11:47
  Again,
• 11:47
  YouGov data here.
• 11:48
  If you look at September 20th,
• 11:50
  you see a situation where 80,
• 11:53
  let's see,
• 11:53
  85%
• 11:55
  of Democrats said they were sure to vote
• 11:57
  that has risen to 87%.
• 11:59
  It almost gets higher.
• 12:01
  Republicans have seen a much more dramatic,
• 12:03
  uh,
• 12:03
  gain there.
• 12:04
  They were at 70% and have risen all the way to 80%.
• 12:07
  So they have closed the gap from about 15 points
• 12:11
  to 7
• 12:12
  in that time period of about a month.
• 12:15
  That is very good news for,
• 12:17
  uh,
• 12:18
  Republicans and Republican candidates if this holds true.
• 12:22
  Independents have been up a little bit,
• 12:24
  but mostly flat,
• 12:25
  and you'd see them bounce around a little bit more than the parties,
• 12:28
  but what you saw was a real depression around September 20th
• 12:31
  and a rise
• 12:33
  to,
• 12:33
  uh,
• 12:33
  to 80% now for.
• 12:35
  Republicans,
• 12:35
  you'd expect that to rise.
• 12:37
  This is October 18th data,
• 12:39
  uh,
• 12:39
  so it's a week old,
• 12:40
  but you'd expect that to rise each week
• 12:42
  and probably that gap close a little bit more as we get closer and closer and closer.
• 12:46
  Now I put that in perspective,
• 12:48
  again,
• 12:48
  I,
• 12:49
  and I wanna make sure I,
• 12:50
  I don't want to come off as like some,
• 12:51
  you know,
• 12:52
  uh,
• 12:52
  hey,
• 12:52
  I'm trying to mislead you because I want one side to win.
• 12:55
  It's important for me,
• 12:56
  for you to win on prediction markets.
• 12:57
  It's important for me to,
• 12:58
  you know,
• 12:59
  for,
• 12:59
  for my candidates to win.
• 13:00
  I,
• 13:00
  I want that to happen.
• 13:02
  But what I want to use this form for is to tell you the truth.
• 13:05
  Um,
• 13:05
  and what the truth here
• 13:07
  is,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:08
  is that while
• 13:09
  there is a narrowing,
• 13:11
  the narrowing doesn't mean
• 13:13
  you're gonna see massive gains for Republicans in the House and Senate.
• 13:17
  I don't think that's going to.
• 13:18
  Happen at all.
• 13:19
  This is a predict this is a,
• 13:20
  uh,
• 13:20
  a kind of
• 13:21
  putting this in context sort of moment here.
• 13:24
  Um,
• 13:24
  this is likely voters,
• 13:25
  uh,
• 13:25
  which are now at +9 for Democrats.
• 13:28
  This is compared to,
• 13:29
  to 2018.
• 13:30
  Why 2018?
• 13:31
  2018 is a really crap,
• 13:32
  crappy year for Republicans,
• 13:34
  and the fact is the line for this year,
• 13:37
  it has been worse the entire time
• 13:40
  than 2018,
• 13:42
  according to YouGov data.
• 13:43
  Now YouGov is one pollster.
• 13:45
  We,
• 13:45
  we'll give you every bit of a disclaimer,
• 13:47
  but you know the disclaimers,
• 13:48
  I don't wanna bore you with them
• 13:49
  all,
• 13:50
  but we've
• 13:50
  said them a million times.
• 13:52
  The bottom line here
• 13:53
  is that even at,
• 13:54
  even with this improvement that you can see on this chart,
• 13:57
  um,
• 13:58
  which echoes an improvement from 2018,
• 14:00
  it's still worse.
• 14:02
  That it was
• 14:03
  in 2018 at least so far.
• 14:05
  We will see if that continues as we go forward.
• 14:07
  Let's make a note to check in on that YouGov uh data as it improves,
• 14:10
  Adam,
• 14:11
  because,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:12
  just to kind of keep our,
• 14:12
  our heads here,
• 14:13
  I wanna make sure we understand things
• 14:15
  now.
• 14:16
  Another part of this
• 14:17
  are undecided voters,
• 14:18
  and there still are a lot of undecided voters out there.
• 14:21
  You might say,
• 14:21
  well,
• 14:22
  I had my mind made up in,
• 14:23
  you know,
• 14:23
  1984.
• 14:24
  Uh,
• 14:25
  but
• 14:26
  right now,
• 14:26
  people are really making their minds up,
• 14:28
  and it's a small percentage of the population,
• 14:29
  but it's an important one.
• 14:31
  Matthew Iglesias wrote this,
• 14:32
  and I thought this was an interesting way of,
• 14:34
  of looking at this.
• 14:35
  Um,
• 14:35
  again,
• 14:36
  he's on the left,
• 14:36
  he's probably thinking this is a very bad outcome,
• 14:39
  uh,
• 14:39
  but I think it's an interesting way to look at this,
• 14:42
  and,
• 14:42
  and most of this is
• 14:44
  At least partially true.
• 14:45
  Polling,
• 14:45
  uh,
• 14:46
  for example,
• 14:46
  this is Kansas Senate.
• 14:48
  Polling has Hamilton up by 1 point
• 14:50
  in a context where there are 10% who are still undecided,
• 14:53
  and almost all of them
• 14:54
  are going to be Trump,
• 14:55
  Trump,
• 14:55
  Trump voters,
• 14:56
  meaning they voted for Trump in 2016,
• 14:57
  2020,
• 14:58
  and 2024.
• 14:59
  So you have this group of undecided voters that
• 15:01
  are gonna go one way or the other likely.
• 15:04
  Most of those people are,
• 15:05
  have been Trump supporters this entire time.
• 15:07
  Should we,
• 15:08
  shouldn't we expect this to be a GOP?
• 15:10
  When?
• 15:11
  Conceptually speaking,
• 15:12
  is it a polling error if these late deciders break for Hamilton?
• 15:16
  There's a good case to be made here.
• 15:17
  If you voted for Trump
• 15:19
  in 2016,
• 15:20
  you voted for Trump in 2020,
• 15:22
  you voted for Trump in 2024,
• 15:24
  are you so upset
• 15:26
  with your previous vote from
• 15:28
  not that long ago,
• 15:28
  two years ago.
• 15:30
  That you think things have gone so terribly
• 15:32
  that you're now looking for a left-wing candidate,
• 15:35
  an Adam Hamilton,
• 15:35
  a James Tallarico,
• 15:37
  uh,
• 15:38
  you know,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:39
  Scott Colom
• 15:40
  in Mississippi.
• 15:42
  One of these,
• 15:42
  are you really gonna go that far?
• 15:46
  It doesn't feel intuitive that that would be true.
• 15:49
  Meaning that if,
• 15:50
  if they can,
• 15:51
  if conservatives can win a majority of those undecided votes,
• 15:54
  they're gonna win a lot of these toss-up races in the Senate.
• 15:58
  Um,
• 15:59
  we have some more information on this.
• 16:00
  This is from Strength in Numbers,
• 16:01
  which,
• 16:02
  uh,
• 16:02
  they,
• 16:02
  they asked the question,
• 16:03
  who's already voted in 2026 midterms,
• 16:05
  who's undecided,
• 16:06
  and how might they vote?
• 16:07
  Now,
• 16:07
  Strength in numbers is,
• 16:08
  you know,
• 16:08
  a good pollster.
• 16:09
  They,
• 16:09
  they are a legitimate
• 16:11
  outfit.
• 16:11
  They do tend to lean,
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:13
  I would say their data tends to lean a little bit more left,
• 16:16
  um,
• 16:16
  but
• 16:17
  to give you a percent,
• 16:17
  uh,
• 16:18
  a kind of a perception as to who is undecided,
• 16:20
  they did some polling on that data or have some,
• 16:22
  uh,
• 16:22
  breakdowns of that data.
• 16:23
  Um,
• 16:24
  first of all,
• 16:25
  the people who are undecided are not big Trump fans right now.
• 16:28
  They have,
• 16:29
  uh,
• 16:29
  decided that Trump is not doing a good job.
• 16:31
  What they say here,
• 16:32
  this is the,
• 16:32
  uh,
• 16:32
  group,
• 16:33
  they're massively,
• 16:34
  uh,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:35
  disapproving of Donald Trump,
• 16:36
  69 to 14 is that number.
• 16:39
  49% strongly disapprove,
• 16:41
  20% somewhat disapproves,
• 16:43
  only 12%,
• 16:44
  uh,
• 16:45
  somewhat approve,
• 16:45
  and 2%
• 16:46
  strongly disapprove.
• 16:47
  That now that makes some sense intuitively because.
• 16:49
  You,
• 16:50
  you would think the people who really like Trump and approve of them
• 16:53
  probably aren't undecided,
• 16:55
  right?
• 16:55
  Those people are already,
• 16:56
  have already picked a candidate.
• 16:57
  These people are undecided,
• 16:58
  probably previously voted for Trump at least once,
• 17:01
  and now we're saying,
• 17:02
  wait a minute,
• 17:02
  I'm not as happy as I,
• 17:03
  as I was.
• 17:04
  However,
• 17:05
  the people,
• 17:05
  as you see here,
• 17:07
  Uh,
• 17:07
  2 to 1 ratio,
• 17:09
  Trump versus Harris,
• 17:10
  voted for Trump.
• 17:11
  So these are mostly people,
• 17:12
  mostly,
• 17:13
  not all,
• 17:14
  uh,
• 17:14
  but the,
• 17:15
  the,
• 17:15
  the plurality of people here,
• 17:17
  um,
• 17:18
  uh,
• 17:18
  that are assigned to a candidate
• 17:20
  are people who are,
• 17:21
  who voted for Donald Trump.
• 17:23
  So they have at least familiarity of voting Republican before,
• 17:26
  lean Republican at one point in their lives,
• 17:28
  uh,
• 17:28
  at least leaning towards MAGA or Trump.
• 17:31
  They,
• 17:31
  28% of those people,
• 17:32
  15% voted for Harris,
• 17:34
  uh,
• 17:34
  third party candidates was 18% and then didn't vote at all,
• 17:37
  38%.
• 17:38
  Again,
• 17:38
  will those people come in?
• 17:40
  If they do,
• 17:40
  they will likely go toward the Democrat,
• 17:43
  but
• 17:44
  people who didn't vote in 2024,
• 17:46
  a presidential year,
• 17:47
  are really unlikely to actually get to the polls.
• 17:51
  If you didn't bother to vote in 2024,
• 17:53
  in a highly contested presidential election
• 17:56
  that included Donald Trump,
• 17:57
  one of them,
• 17:57
  you know.
• 17:58
  Whether you like him or not,
• 17:59
  either you love him or you hate him,
• 18:00
  usually,
• 18:00
  very polarizing guy.
• 18:03
  You could see why people would be skeptical that those people would
• 18:06
  actually show up to vote for Adam Hamilton or Roger Marshall,
• 18:10
  right?
• 18:10
  Like it's just
• 18:11
  the passion levels are usually lower on this,
• 18:13
  in those situations.
• 18:14
  Um,
• 18:15
  now,
• 18:15
  I am
• 18:16
  a person,
• 18:17
  to be honest with you,
• 18:19
  and there are a lot of,
• 18:20
  uh,
• 18:21
  of
• 18:22
  early voting tea leaf readers who will tell you different,
• 18:25
  uh,
• 18:26
  things than this.
• 18:27
  I am a person who does not take all that much
• 18:30
  from early vote.
• 18:32
  There are some pretty smart arguments to be made
• 18:34
  that if you look at lower propensity voters,
• 18:37
  again,
• 18:37
  voters who don't typically vote,
• 18:38
  if you can lock those people in and isolate them,
• 18:41
  you can get something out of those guys.
• 18:42
  But again,
• 18:43
  you're talking about a tiny fraction of the audience,
• 18:45
  and
• 18:45
  I think a lot of times
• 18:46
  you get,
• 18:47
  uh,
• 18:47
  uh,
• 18:48
  an overestimation of that.
• 18:49
  I find that
• 18:50
  early voting data tends to mislead more than it leads correctly.
• 18:54
  Um,
• 18:55
  so that is my opinion on that.
• 18:56
  I wanna show you some of that data anyway,
• 18:58
  in case you happen to be,
• 18:59
  uh,
• 19:00
  in case you happen to disagree.
• 19:01
  This is again from,
• 19:03
  uh,
• 19:04
  Strength in numbers.
• 19:05
  Um,
• 19:06
  What we normally see
• 19:08
  in early dating,
• 19:09
  uh,
• 19:09
  early voting data is that Democrats get out early.
• 19:11
  We all kind of know that,
• 19:12
  right?
• 19:13
  Democrats vote early
• 19:15
  more often
• 19:16
  than Republicans do,
• 19:17
  and we see that in every single election with one,
• 19:19
  actually kind of interesting exception
• 19:21
  of 2024.
• 19:23
  But,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:23
  looking at the previous elections,
• 19:24
  you see,
• 19:25
  uh,
• 19:25
  uh,
• 19:25
  anywhere from,
• 19:26
  uh,
• 19:26
  8
• 19:27
  to 10 point
• 19:30
  move,
• 19:30
  maybe 5 to 10 point move
• 19:32
  from,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:34
  when,
• 19:34
  you know,
• 19:34
  in early ballots,
• 19:35
  more Democratic.
• 19:36
  Um,
• 19:37
  day of the final electorate being much more Republican.
• 19:40
  So you see a big move
• 19:42
  from,
• 19:42
  uh,
• 19:43
  the early voting being more Democratic,
• 19:45
  the day of voting being much more Republican,
• 19:47
  the average of that,
• 19:48
  the final electorate being these,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:50
  dots that are not colored in.
• 19:52
  In 2022,
• 19:52
  it was a very slight lean toward Republicans.
• 19:54
  2024,
• 19:55
  a little bit more toward Republicans
• 19:57
  with the final vote,
• 19:58
  but
• 19:59
  that,
• 19:59
  uh,
• 20:00
  election data,
• 20:01
  uh,
• 20:01
  looking back to 2018
• 20:03
  shows that usually Democrats get out early,
• 20:06
  um,
• 20:06
  and this is broken down in multiple different ways.
• 20:08
  Voted in both previous generals.
• 20:10
  They go on to,
• 20:11
  if you haven't voted at all or you haven't,
• 20:13
  uh,
• 20:13
  you know,
• 20:13
  go to the next slide if you would.
• 20:15
  Um,
• 20:15
  these are voted in one out of two previous general elections and two out of two.
• 20:19
  What you see generally speaking though,
• 20:21
  is the same story
• 20:23
  in almost every case,
• 20:24
  with the exception of 2024,
• 20:26
  which is interesting.
• 20:27
  In 2024,
• 20:28
  there really wasn't that sort of change.
• 20:30
  So,
• 20:31
  is that a situation,
• 20:32
  and this could be,
• 20:32
  this is a plausible theory.
• 20:35
  Donald Trump,
• 20:36
  uh,
• 20:36
  in 2016,
• 20:37
  but really more in 2020,
• 20:39
  encouraged Republican voters
• 20:41
  to not vote early,
• 20:43
  to not vote by mail.
• 20:45
  It's corrupt,
• 20:45
  it's a corrupt system.
• 20:46
  It's,
• 20:46
  you know,
• 20:47
  the only state,
• 20:47
  honestly,
• 20:48
  you go back to 2020 where he encouraged it was Florida,
• 20:50
  and it was basically his best performing state of the election.
• 20:54
  Uh,
• 20:54
  I don't think that's a coincidence.
• 20:55
  Um,
• 20:56
  they just,
• 20:56
  they saw that same data,
• 20:58
  and in 2024 they stopped saying don't vote early,
• 21:00
  don't vote in,
• 21:01
  in,
• 21:01
  in the elections,
• 21:02
  and
• 21:02
  like you might say like there's fraud in those elections or whatever,
• 21:05
  uh,
• 21:05
  when it comes to early voting and mail-in voting.
• 21:07
  The,
• 21:07
  the,
• 21:08
  the thing about it,
• 21:08
  it's really valuable to campaigns.
• 21:11
  Campaigns love when you vote early because
• 21:13
  when you vote early,
• 21:15
  they can check you off the list and stop using resources to try to get you out to vote.
• 21:20
  So they love it.
• 21:21
  When you vote early,
• 21:22
  if you vote early,
• 21:22
  you'll stop getting text messages constantly,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:25
  in a lot of cases because
• 21:26
  you get checked off the list.
• 21:27
  They see that you voted and then you're,
• 21:29
  they don't need to spend any money on you anymore.
• 21:31
  They love that.
• 21:32
  So now Republicans have been considering,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:34
  they've changed that,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  outlook and said,
• 21:36
  look,
• 21:36
  just go and vote early.
• 21:37
  2024 was the first time they tried that,
• 21:39
  and you see that data,
• 21:39
  not,
• 21:40
  not as much leaning,
• 21:41
  uh,
• 21:42
  in the Republican way for day of voting.
• 21:44
  So that's gonna be interesting to see.
• 21:46
  When it comes to prediction markets,
• 21:48
  this is all really interesting information.
• 21:50
  I
• 21:51
  think a lot of the movement lately,
• 21:52
  I dove into this,
• 21:53
  uh,
• 21:54
  deeply,
• 21:54
  maybe we'll get into this on another show as well.
• 21:56
  Um,
• 21:57
  what's moving the markets right now,
• 21:58
  it does seem to be early voting,
• 22:00
  uh,
• 22:00
  voting data,
• 22:01
  even more than polling.
• 22:02
  Um,
• 22:03
  Texas is a good example of this.
• 22:04
  In Texas,
• 22:06
  the polling for Greg Abbott has been pretty good,
• 22:08
  better than previously in the cycle,
• 22:10
  and his actual percentages have dropped.
• 22:12
  Why?
• 22:13
  Early voting data in Texas looks pretty bad
• 22:15
  for Republicans.
• 22:16
  What do I take out of that?
• 22:18
  Not much.
• 22:19
  I don't take much out of it,
• 22:20
  and I could be wrong on this.
• 22:21
  We might find that this is the time where early voting data has been predictive.
• 22:24
  What I've seen about early voting data is it,
• 22:26
  it tends to mislead you more
• 22:28
  than it leads you in the right direction,
• 22:29
  and over and over again,
• 22:30
  we've,
• 22:31
  we've been told
• 22:32
  by early voting data,
• 22:33
  uh,
• 22:34
  soothsayers what's gonna happen in an election,
• 22:36
  and then it doesn't wind up happening.
• 22:38
  So I don't really pay much attention to it.
• 22:40
  Uh,
• 22:40
  if you have somebody who you really love,
• 22:41
  you know,
• 22:42
  go ahead,
• 22:42
  uh,
• 22:42
  you know,
• 22:43
  free,
• 22:44
  feel free to share it on the predictable show.com chats because I'll look
• 22:47
  at the data all day long and some of it is convincing,
• 22:50
  but generally speaking,
• 22:50
  I don't think much about it.
• 22:51
  I was talking,
• 22:52
  uh,
• 22:53
  what's interesting about this is you can use
• 22:54
  prediction markets to do
• 22:56
  different things
• 22:57
  in these moments.
• 22:58
  Yes,
• 22:58
  you can do,
• 22:58
  do them for pure profit,
• 23:00
  uh,
• 23:00
  potential,
• 23:01
  and it also helps deliver a better result,
• 23:03
  uh,
• 23:04
  to the American people when it comes to their information diet.
• 23:06
  I think that's a positive.
• 23:07
  However,
• 23:08
  you can also kind of hedge your life.
• 23:10
  I've talked about hedging your life a lot.
• 23:11
  I do it all the time,
• 23:12
  um,
• 23:13
  uh,
• 23:13
  because I believe if I'm gonna have something that makes my life worse,
• 23:16
  I should get paid for it.
• 23:18
  Um,
• 23:18
  you know,
• 23:19
  I had to work with,
• 23:20
  uh,
• 23:20
  with Jeffy for many,
• 23:21
  many years,
• 23:22
  and I had to be paid for that.
• 23:24
  Uh,
• 23:24
  so you get the sense of,
• 23:26
  of
• 23:27
  when you want,
• 23:28
  uh,
• 23:28
  it's one of the central things that I think about,
• 23:30
  and it goes,
• 23:31
  I was talking to Dave Landau,
• 23:32
  who I do a show with,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:33
  Stu and Dave do America,
• 23:34
  um,
• 23:35
  it's on Blaze TV.
• 23:36
  If you haven't seen it,
• 23:36
  I think you'll like it.
• 23:37
  It's funny.
• 23:38
  He's funny.
• 23:38
  Um,
• 23:39
  and so we're doing a,
• 23:40
  a,
• 23:40
  a show about the,
• 23:42
  uh,
• 23:42
  elections,
• 23:43
  and,
• 23:43
  uh,
• 23:43
  we kind of go to the break,
• 23:44
  and he says,
• 23:45
  yeah,
• 23:45
  I've,
• 23:45
  I've got some money on,
• 23:46
  uh,
• 23:47
  Calci.
• 23:48
  On El Sayed to win.
• 23:49
  He lives in Michigan.
• 23:50
  He's saying,
• 23:50
  I,
• 23:50
  I just,
• 23:51
  I don't want El Sayed to be my senator.
• 23:52
  I'm,
• 23:53
  I'm basically trying to,
• 23:54
  uh,
• 23:54
  this way I'll win either way.
• 23:55
  I'm like,
• 23:56
  you're hedging your life.
• 23:57
  This is what this is.
• 23:58
  And
• 24:00
  Because
• 24:01
  a representative of your state,
• 24:02
  particularly governor,
• 24:03
  can make your life considerably worse if they win,
• 24:05
  if,
• 24:05
  if,
• 24:06
  if you don't like their policies.
• 24:08
  I mean,
• 24:08
  you can really do this,
• 24:09
  uh,
• 24:10
  down the,
• 24:10
  the,
• 24:10
  down the line.
• 24:11
  You should get paid if you,
• 24:14
  uh,
• 24:14
  if you,
• 24:14
  if a candidate that you think is gonna make your life worse,
• 24:16
  is going to get elected,
• 24:17
  and they're gonna make your life worse,
• 24:18
  you should get paid for that.
• 24:19
  You should get compensated for it.
• 24:21
  And you can actually look at this and try to calculate
• 24:23
  exactly what's going on.
• 24:24
  When,
• 24:24
  when,
• 24:24
  in 2028 is a good example of this.
• 24:26
  If a left-wing candidate were to win in 2028,
• 24:29
  it's likely your taxes would go up and that would cost you actual money.
• 24:32
  You can hedge that risk
• 24:34
  on prediction markets.
• 24:35
  And that is something that I've done in the past.
• 24:37
  It doesn't mean you can get all of,
• 24:39
  you know,
• 24:39
  tax,
• 24:40
  tax burdens can be very large,
• 24:41
  but you can get paid some of that money back,
• 24:43
  hedge it a little bit,
• 24:44
  uh,
• 24:44
  if you understand how to do that.
• 24:46
  And as we get closer to 2028,
• 24:47
  we'll,
• 24:47
  we'll talk about that a little bit more.
• 24:49
  Um,
• 24:49
  you can also hedge your life by just going into the Senate Fantasy League,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  website,
• 24:53
  SenateFantassy.com,
• 24:55
  and put a team in there.
• 24:56
  It is free.
• 24:58
  Uh,
• 24:58
  when you do that,
• 24:59
  you go in there and you can pick
• 25:00
  all candidates you don't like,
• 25:02
  and if they all win,
• 25:03
  you'll do really well in the Senate Fantasy League and maybe make some money.
• 25:05
  Um,
• 25:06
  we are,
• 25:07
  uh,
• 25:07
  we have about 500 teams in right now.
• 25:09
  We'd love to get your team in.
• 25:11
  500 teams,
• 25:11
  there's,
• 25:12
  I think there's,
• 25:12
  uh,
• 25:13
  the top 10 all get cash.
• 25:15
  So you're talking about a 1 in 50 chance of winning cash.
• 25:17
  Why wouldn't you take that?
• 25:18
  It's free.
• 25:18
  It's a free opportunity,
• 25:20
  uh,
• 25:20
  to win some money.
• 25:21
  I was thinking about it,
• 25:22
  I was thinking about this.
• 25:23
  I have not run this by anybody yet.
• 25:25
  But also giving like,
• 25:26
  I don't know,
• 25:26
  100 bucks to whoever finishes in dead last place.
• 25:30
  If you are capable of coming in last place in this,
• 25:33
  maybe we come up with a prize for that too,
• 25:34
  cause I,
• 25:35
  you know,
• 25:35
  again,
• 25:36
  just luck,
• 25:36
  you think you're gonna win some of these cases,
• 25:38
  uh,
• 25:38
  races anyway.
• 25:39
  Um,
• 25:40
  so,
• 25:40
  Senate Fantasy.com,
• 25:41
  do we have the leaderboard up?
• 25:42
  One thing we added as a feature because some of these names are so great,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  you can now like the names as well.
• 25:47
  Um,
• 25:48
  we just launched this like a couple of hours ago,
• 25:50
  so you click on the heart next to it
• 25:52
  and we'll see who likes,
• 25:53
  uh,
• 25:53
  the name.
• 25:53
  Maybe we'll come up with a prize.
• 25:55
  Some merch or something
• 25:56
  for whoever,
• 25:57
  uh,
• 25:57
  whatever,
• 25:58
  uh,
• 25:58
  name does well.
• 25:59
  Right now,
• 26:00
  Jay Rogue Fighters is in first place.
• 26:02
  Um,
• 26:02
  you kind of look down,
• 26:03
  let's go Brewers,
• 26:04
  uh,
• 26:04
  might get a double win here,
• 26:05
  uh,
• 26:05
  winning the World Series and also winning the fantasy league.
• 26:08
  Kandahar and Jalalabad,
• 26:09
  I love that one.
• 26:10
  That was an old bit we did on Glenn's show in like 2001.
• 26:12
  That's an old-timey listener.
• 26:14
  I love it.
• 26:15
  Uh,
• 26:16
  great,
• 26:16
  uh,
• 26:16
  name,
• 26:16
  neither Steve nor Stu.
• 26:18
  Uh,
• 26:19
  is,
• 26:19
  is in there as well.
• 26:20
  Ilhan's Legal Fund.
• 26:22
  I don't know if we,
• 26:22
  do we want Ilhan's Legal Fund to win?
• 26:25
  Uh,
• 26:25
  tons and tons of great ones on there.
• 26:26
  Go down,
• 26:27
  scroll around,
• 26:28
  click on whatever you want.
• 26:29
  Um,
• 26:30
  we've got,
• 26:30
  uh,
• 26:31
  Steve Krakauer,
• 26:32
  Megyn Kelly's executive producer is in there now.
• 26:34
  Uh,
• 26:34
  uh,
• 26:35
  uh,
• 26:35
  PMT,
• 26:35
  the prediction market trader,
• 26:37
  one of the top traders in the world is in this.
• 26:39
  Go in there,
• 26:39
  see how you match up against them.
• 26:40
  And then you have me.
• 26:41
  I'm,
• 26:41
  I'm in 84th place right now,
• 26:43
  85th place.
• 26:45
  I'm gonna pass everybody.
• 26:46
  Don't worry about it.
• 26:47
  It just takes time.
• 26:48
  OK,
• 26:48
  uh,
• 26:48
  go there,
• 26:48
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 26:49
  Get in.
• 26:50
  You only have a week left,
• 26:51
  but you do have a week.
• 26:52
  Get your team in there.
• 26:53
  Be one of the people that can win.
• 26:54
  I would love to fund.
• 26:55
  I would love to fund your prediction market account.
• 26:58
  Uh,
• 26:58
  2500 bucks first prize.
• 27:00
  I think there's $1000 for second prize.
• 27:01
  It goes all the way down.
• 27:02
  Uh,
• 27:03
  the top 10,
• 27:03
  I think all of them win cash.
• 27:05
  Get in,
• 27:05
  uh,
• 27:06
  and there's also prizes,
• 27:06
  I think for the whole top 100.
• 27:08
  So,
• 27:09
  lots of chances,
• 27:09
  1 in 5 chance to win something.
• 27:11
  Go to that Senate Fantasy.com,
• 27:13
  free to join.
• 27:14
  Check it out.
• 27:15
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 27:16
  Back in a second.
• 27:34
  So there's a big election coming up here in 8 days.
• 27:37
  There was another election that happened over the weekend
• 27:40
  in Brazil,
• 27:41
  and it was kind of a big prediction market story.
• 27:43
  Lula wins Brazil's presidency in stunning blow
• 27:48
  to Latin America's right.
• 27:50
  Uh,
• 27:50
  you'll be shocked to hear that there's some controversy around this election.
• 27:53
  Um,
• 27:54
  I,
• 27:54
  there's also prediction market lessons to be learned.
• 27:56
  Scottylicious,
• 27:57
  uh,
• 27:57
  David Ben Susan who has been on the program a couple of times.
• 27:59
  Uh,
• 28:00
  he reminds us of a very important tip.
• 28:03
  Very important tip about this when it comes to prediction markets.
• 28:05
  He says,
• 28:06
  uh,
• 28:06
  never chase losses.
• 28:08
  I lost a lot on the first round of the Brazil race,
• 28:10
  but still had some Lula bought in the low 60s for the final round.
• 28:14
  It might have been tempting to buy a bunch of Bolsonaro
• 28:16
  to win in round two because he was heavily favored.
• 28:18
  Instead,
• 28:19
  we held tight to the Lula shares we bought and bought more in the low 80s last night
• 28:23
  when things became obvious.
• 28:24
  I think over the years I've assimilated the
• 28:26
  idea that chasing losses is a poor proposition.
• 28:30
  Now I have to remember
• 28:31
  the,
• 28:31
  uh,
• 28:32
  another important lesson stay the hell away from
• 28:34
  unpredictable Latin American elections in the first place.
• 28:37
  I mean,
• 28:37
  there might be two constitutional amendments in there.
• 28:40
  Number one,
• 28:40
  the,
• 28:40
  uh,
• 28:41
  the Scotty amendment,
• 28:42
  um,
• 28:43
  which is,
• 28:43
  uh,
• 28:44
  uh,
• 28:45
  chasing losses is a poor proposition.
• 28:47
  I like the wording of it.
• 28:48
  I think that might be our next,
• 28:49
  uh,
• 28:49
  constitutional amendment if he doesn't mind us using it.
• 28:51
  And then also stay the hell away from unpredictable Latin
• 28:54
  American elections because when has there ever been anything that's gone
• 28:57
  awry at all
• 28:58
  in a Latin American election?
• 28:59
  Everything seems just,
• 29:00
  just perfect all the time,
• 29:02
  uh,
• 29:02
  never any controversy.
• 29:04
  Bolsonaro is saying he thinks the election was stolen.
• 29:07
  It's one of those things that,
• 29:08
  you know,
• 29:08
  of course,
• 29:08
  I don't know,
• 29:09
  it seems like over the past decade or so every single
• 29:11
  candidate that has lost an election has said it's stolen.
• 29:14
  Uh,
• 29:14
  however,
• 29:14
  a little more credibility in,
• 29:15
  in random Latin American elections.
• 29:18
  We will see if there's any credibility to that.
• 29:20
  Um,
• 29:20
  prediction markets are getting
• 29:23
  hit today because of this election.
• 29:25
  Why?
• 29:25
  Well,
• 29:26
  as,
• 29:26
  uh,
• 29:27
  David mentioned,
• 29:28
  This is a situation where Bolsonaro was favored going into this election night.
• 29:33
  And,
• 29:33
  uh,
• 29:33
  you know,
• 29:34
  if you look anywhere on Twitter or anything else,
• 29:36
  people are all saying,
• 29:36
  oh,
• 29:37
  see,
• 29:37
  prediction markets don't predict anything.
• 29:39
  Look at this chart,
• 29:41
  and,
• 29:41
  uh,
• 29:41
  I'll show you the chart in a second.
• 29:43
  We're also getting this from the mainstream media,
• 29:45
  prediction markets credibility
• 29:46
  on the line in midterms.
• 29:48
  And of course,
• 29:49
  that is true.
• 29:50
  It is on the line.
• 29:51
  The reason I know that is because
• 29:53
  it's always on the line.
• 29:54
  Every single time prediction markets predict anything.
• 29:58
  We are told that they have to predict it correctly or they have no credibility.
• 30:02
  That is,
• 30:02
  of course,
• 30:03
  an idiotic uh idea,
• 30:05
  and I can show you evidence of that here in a moment.
• 30:08
  I will also say,
• 30:09
  I do get it here.
• 30:11
  I do get that I am pulling,
• 30:12
  I am pushing a very heavy
• 30:14
  uh stone
• 30:16
  up a very steep
• 30:17
  hill when I'm asking the American
• 30:20
  population to understand probability.
• 30:22
  You being here,
• 30:23
  might be a little different.
• 30:25
  You might be able to intake these things and understand them.
• 30:27
  You have to understand that most people don't,
• 30:29
  or at least don't care enough to think about it.
• 30:31
  Um,
• 30:32
  and that's,
• 30:32
  of course,
• 30:32
  social media,
• 30:33
  it makes that problem 10 times worse than it probably even is.
• 30:37
  Probability is something that is included when you're talking about these things,
• 30:41
  and it is very difficult for the average person to understand because to be fair,
• 30:45
  they don't
• 30:45
  trade,
• 30:46
  they don't care
• 30:47
  about this stuff.
• 30:48
  Um,
• 30:48
  so they don't care about your stupid probability arguments.
• 30:51
  What they care about is who's gonna win,
• 30:53
  because that's what affects their lives.
• 30:54
  They don't,
• 30:55
  they're not trading,
• 30:55
  they don't,
• 30:56
  they don't care.
• 30:56
  They just wanna know who's gonna win.
• 30:57
  And if you tell them one candidate's gonna win and that candidate loses,
• 31:00
  well,
• 31:02
  Then you've lied to them and you have no credibility.
• 31:04
  That's the way this gets looked at by a lot of people
• 31:07
  in the general population.
• 31:08
  And I understand that.
• 31:10
  I understand the emotions behind it.
• 31:12
  Of course,
• 31:12
  what you have to get,
• 31:13
  if,
• 31:13
  and if,
• 31:14
  you know,
• 31:14
  if you know people who are thinking this way,
• 31:17
  trying to understand and trying to help them understand this is,
• 31:19
  is key,
• 31:21
  uh,
• 31:21
  to prediction markets having more utility than it might just
• 31:23
  have to us and to people who are political obsessives.
• 31:27
  Uh,
• 31:28
  because
• 31:29
  what
• 31:29
  they're not telling you Bolsonaro was going to win.
• 31:31
  They told,
• 31:31
  they were telling you Bolsonaro had a good chance to win.
• 31:34
  Um,
• 31:34
  do we have the,
• 31:34
  the market here by any chance on this Bolsonaro election?
• 31:37
  You see here,
• 31:38
  uh,
• 31:38
  Bolsonaro was the underdog,
• 31:40
  uh,
• 31:40
  then kind of,
• 31:41
  uh,
• 31:42
  went to about a 50/50 race,
• 31:43
  was the underdog again going into the first round,
• 31:45
  then became the favorite going into the second round.
• 31:48
  And if you see the end of this,
• 31:50
  there's two basically straight up and down lines
• 31:52
  because they flip-flopped.
• 31:53
  Go back and give me like a,
• 31:55
  a,
• 31:55
  a month here on this chart.
• 31:57
  And I'm gonna get a better view of it.
• 31:59
  Bolsonaro was about a 75% favorite going into election day and wound up losing,
• 32:04
  at least
• 32:05
  according to the final count.
• 32:06
  Lula won,
• 32:08
  as only a 25% chance of winning.
• 32:10
  What you,
• 32:11
  you know,
• 32:11
  what,
• 32:12
  what is hard for people to understand,
• 32:13
  cause I think a lot of times they look at this and they think,
• 32:15
  0,
• 32:15
  75%,
• 32:16
  a a person who's 75% uh 75%
• 32:19
  in a polling average
• 32:21
  is a very,
• 32:22
  very high,
• 32:22
  like a almost 100% chance to win.
• 32:25
  If you're 75% in a polling average,
• 32:26
  that's different than 75% on a prediction market.
• 32:28
  A prediction market is telling you
• 32:30
  that 1 out of every 4 times this election occurs,
• 32:33
  you should expect Lula to win it.
• 32:36
  3 out of 4,
• 32:37
  you should expect
• 32:38
  Bolsonaro to win it.
• 32:40
  This was one of those indications,
• 32:42
  or one of those chances where um
• 32:43
  uh the opposite happened,
• 32:45
  where the underdog wins.
• 32:46
  The underdog does win sometimes.
• 32:50
  And,
• 32:51
  you know,
• 32:51
  when you think about prediction markets in a way.
• 32:54
  They're not,
• 32:55
  the information they're giving you aren't really predictions.
• 32:58
  If like if you are on a prediction market,
• 33:00
  if you're trading,
• 33:01
  you are doing your best to predict the outcome.
• 33:03
  That is your role in the process.
• 33:05
  So in that way,
• 33:06
  prediction markets are about predicting things.
• 33:09
  When it comes to the output of a prediction market,
• 33:11
  when at the end of the Fed day it says 70% favorite for someone like Bolsonaro,
• 33:15
  what it is doing there is less
• 33:18
  predicting.
• 33:20
  and more of crystallizing
• 33:22
  all of human knowledge into one number.
• 33:26
  All the things that we think we know.
• 33:28
  We could be wrong about some of those things.
• 33:30
  That's why prediction markets,
• 33:31
  markets aren't perfect,
• 33:32
  and by the way,
• 33:33
  here at Predictable with Stew,
• 33:34
  we are happy they aren't perfect,
• 33:35
  because if they were perfect,
• 33:36
  it would be very difficult to make any money.
• 33:38
  Um,
• 33:38
  we look for the imperfections and try to take advantage of those.
• 33:41
  That's what we do here all the time.
• 33:42
  And there are some imperfections.
• 33:44
  You can always find value in individual markets,
• 33:47
  but what
• 33:47
  prediction markets do really well,
• 33:49
  is
• 33:50
  if they tell you
• 33:51
  a 70%,
• 33:53
  there's a 70% chance of something happening,
• 33:55
  over time,
• 33:56
  what you'll see is,
• 33:57
  there's a 70% chance of that thing happening.
• 34:00
  We've told you multiple stories,
• 34:01
  we should do multiple uh studies of this over time.
• 34:04
  There's a new one out right now.
• 34:07
  Uh,
• 34:07
  calibration,
• 34:07
  accuracy,
• 34:08
  and domain variation across 1 million collective forecasts
• 34:11
  from prediction
• 34:12
  platforms.
• 34:13
  Now,
• 34:14
  I'm not gonna go through all the details of the study because I have a show to do and,
• 34:17
  uh,
• 34:18
  I don't want everyone to tune out.
• 34:20
  OK,
• 34:20
  I,
• 34:20
  I,
• 34:20
  I,
• 34:21
  reading academic studies on the air is not exactly
• 34:24
  the highest rating potential.
• 34:26
  But what I will tell you is,
• 34:27
  ideally,
• 34:29
  This study would show you
• 34:30
  a bunch of lines that go from the bottom left-hand corner of your screen
• 34:34
  to the bottom,
• 34:35
  or to the top right-hand corner of your screen.
• 34:37
  There's a straight line,
• 34:38
  and you hope that those predictions match that line.
• 34:41
  Let me show you the results over all of these categories.
• 34:43
  This is what they came up with over a million different contracts.
• 34:46
  And what you see here for those listening on podcasts
• 34:49
  are Lines
• 34:50
  that go from the bottom left-hand corner of the box,
• 34:53
  all the way up to the top right-hand corner of the box.
• 34:56
  That,
• 34:56
  uh,
• 34:57
  typical straight line up,
• 34:59
  uh,
• 34:59
  to up and to the right is exactly what you
• 35:01
  want and what you get in almost every category.
• 35:03
  Now,
• 35:03
  there are blips here.
• 35:05
  A couple of the blips you might notice
• 35:07
  are,
• 35:08
  um,
• 35:08
  in geopolitics.
• 35:10
  A little bit,
• 35:11
  um,
• 35:12
  military conflicts,
• 35:13
  notably unpredictable.
• 35:15
  Uh,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  there's a little bit of a bias.
• 35:17
  Elections,
• 35:17
  a tad when you go out over a long period of time.
• 35:21
  Technology sometimes difficult to predict,
• 35:23
  but I mean,
• 35:24
  these things are,
• 35:24
  what I'm,
• 35:24
  what I'm saying they're difficult.
• 35:25
  It's like
• 35:26
  instead of being 100% accurate,
• 35:28
  it's like 98% or 95% or 90% accurate.
• 35:31
  You see,
• 35:32
  there is very little variation from this line showing,
• 35:35
  once again,
• 35:36
  you know,
• 35:36
  this is not the 1st study that showed this,
• 35:38
  this is like the 5th or 6th that we featured on this show,
• 35:41
  that when you use prediction markets,
• 35:42
  they are the greatest tool we have to understand
• 35:45
  the world.
• 35:46
  That is,
• 35:47
  that's it
• 35:48
  That's one of the reasons why I do this show.
• 35:50
  Yes,
• 35:51
  I do it also to make money
• 35:52
  because I like,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:53
  being in prediction markets.
• 35:54
  And again,
• 35:55
  if prediction markets were just gambling,
• 35:56
  I can tell you I wouldn't have be up in every single year,
• 36:00
  uh,
• 36:00
  that I've been in prediction markets since I started over a decade ago.
• 36:03
  Uh,
• 36:03
  it's,
• 36:04
  it wouldn't be,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:05
  you can't replicate that unless you're some,
• 36:07
  you know,
• 36:07
  genius,
• 36:07
  uh,
• 36:08
  you know,
• 36:08
  professional gambler,
• 36:09
  maybe some of them can.
• 36:10
  I can't.
• 36:11
  All I know is when I gamble,
• 36:12
  I lose,
• 36:13
  uh,
• 36:13
  when I,
• 36:14
  I'm on prediction markets,
• 36:15
  I typically win.
• 36:16
  Not every time.
• 36:17
  But over a long period of time,
• 36:19
  and that's what you should look at when
• 36:20
  you're looking at the accuracy of these markets.
• 36:21
  So,
• 36:22
  when you think you're smart and you go on Twitter
• 36:24
  and you say,
• 36:24
  oh gosh,
• 36:25
  well,
• 36:25
  look at this one election
• 36:27
  where
• 36:28
  a 70% favorite lost,
• 36:30
  I'm really smart for telling you that
• 36:32
  prediction markets have no predictive ability.
• 36:35
  Perhaps it would be notable for you to go back
• 36:37
  and look at the academic studies that have been done
• 36:39
  to show
• 36:40
  that what they say,
• 36:42
  a 70% favorite,
• 36:43
  should win about 70% of the time,
• 36:45
  has been shown true over every category,
• 36:47
  over very long extended periods of time,
• 36:50
  and millions of different contracts.
• 36:53
  Yes,
• 36:53
  you can point at one thing
• 36:55
  where a favorite lost,
• 36:57
  and you can think you're really smart and get your retweets and get your likes
• 37:01
  from people who hate prediction markets for God knows what reason.
• 37:04
  But at the end of the day,
• 37:05
  what this is doing is making your information diet
• 37:08
  better.
• 37:09
  It's making you understand the world
• 37:11
  more accurately.
• 37:12
  It is cutting through media nonsense,
• 37:14
  partisan nonsense,
• 37:15
  all of these things that have been the enemy
• 37:18
  of the information diet of the average.
• 37:20
  Citizen.
• 37:21
  It is cutting through all of that.
• 37:23
  And if you're not in markets at all,
• 37:25
  if you're just looking at this,
• 37:26
  because you're just gonna go to Calsci and you're gonna click on the thing and say,
• 37:29
  oh wow,
• 37:29
  this person has an 85% chance to win.
• 37:31
  You're just taking in the information.
• 37:32
  It's doing
• 37:33
  all of that for you
• 37:34
  with all the work
• 37:35
  for free.
• 37:37
  And zero effort on your part.
• 37:40
  How is this seen as anything but an incredible positive,
• 37:43
  especially when the results are so crystal clear
• 37:46
  over a long period of time.
• 37:48
  Prediction markets are doing things
• 37:49
  that have been the desire,
• 37:51
  especially of those who feel left out of the mainstream media
• 37:55
  talking points of the day,
• 37:57
  who feel,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:59
  that they don't get
• 38:00
  the most clear and accurate information.
• 38:02
  If your desire is that,
• 38:04
  and I've been working in that field my entire life.
• 38:06
  Your desire is to take information and actually get accurate information
• 38:10
  to the people,
• 38:10
  fair information to the people.
• 38:12
  Nothing does it better
• 38:14
  than prediction markets.
• 38:15
  Back in a second.
• 38:31
  Time for candidate countdown.
• 38:32
  We are showing you a candidate a day to that could be um,
• 38:35
  have some value for you on prediction markets,
• 38:37
  and then we want to feature today's candidate countdown with 8 days remaining until
• 38:41
  the midterms
• 38:42
  is actually a group of candidates,
• 38:44
  the Socialists.
• 38:45
  Yes,
• 38:46
  the Socialists are our candidates of the day.
• 38:48
  Now that doesn't mean we want to pick the,
• 38:49
  you know,
• 38:50
  socialists,
• 38:50
  but
• 38:50
  I wanted to break this down for you largely because
• 38:52
  the New York Times kind of set a
• 38:54
  Um,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:55
  a marking point here,
• 38:56
  and I wanted to kind of note it because
• 38:58
  we're gonna have a lot of conversation after this election
• 39:01
  whether socialist candidates
• 39:03
  can win and whether America just absolutely hearts socialism.
• 39:06
  Certainly you will get that from a lot of sources.
• 39:08
  These are the candidates that they put out there in this article,
• 39:11
  the 11 midterm races that could shape the progressive movement's future,
• 39:15
  and many of them are either they're either
• 39:17
  admitted democratic socialists or they just basically are
• 39:21
  and just won't admit it,
• 39:22
  one of the two.
• 39:23
  Um,
• 39:23
  and they feature these 11 candidates.
• 39:25
  I want to go through,
• 39:26
  this is,
• 39:26
  these are,
• 39:26
  uh,
• 39:27
  the Calci percentages for these candidates.
• 39:29
  El Sayed is a 66% favorite.
• 39:31
  Flanagan in,
• 39:32
  uh,
• 39:33
  Miss,
• 39:33
  uh,
• 39:33
  excuse me,
• 39:34
  Minnesota
• 39:35
  for the Senate is an 83% favorite.
• 39:37
  Uh,
• 39:37
  Nixon,
• 39:38
  Angela Nixon in Florida is only 14% chance to win,
• 39:42
  the biggest underdog on this board,
• 39:43
  uh,
• 39:44
  59% chance for Jackson to win in Maine.
• 39:47
  Um,
• 39:47
  a little rise there for,
• 39:49
  um,
• 39:49
  uh,
• 39:50
  Susan Collins.
• 39:51
  Uh,
• 39:51
  Velejas in California,
• 39:53
  22 is at 91% chance to,
• 39:56
  to win.
• 39:57
  Rutanel in Colorado 8th is the 85% favorite.
• 40:01
  Lawrence,
• 40:01
  73% favorite
• 40:03
  in Michigan,
• 40:03
  7.
• 40:04
  Pearson,
• 40:05
  who just got some awesome hair,
• 40:06
  I gotta say right now.
• 40:07
  I mean,
• 40:08
  I would vote for him just for the hair,
• 40:09
  a 19% favorite to win in Tennessee,
• 40:11
  9.
• 40:13
  Dunlap,
• 40:13
  45%,
• 40:14
  also great hair.
• 40:15
  Uh,
• 40:16
  for Dunlap,
• 40:16
  look at that.
• 40:17
  That's really nice.
• 40:18
  Uh,
• 40:18
  45% favorite in Maine,
• 40:20
  too,
• 40:21
  but he's bald,
• 40:21
  by the way,
• 40:22
  for those listening on podcast.
• 40:23
  Um,
• 40:24
  uh,
• 40:24
  for stag,
• 40:25
  uh,
• 40:25
  Montana,
• 40:26
  First District,
• 40:27
  44% favorite,
• 40:28
  and Brooks in Pennsylvania 7th,
• 40:29
  and 88% favorite.
• 40:30
  You see this kind of all over the board,
• 40:32
  a couple of real long shots and Nixon and Pearson,
• 40:34
  but this will be an interesting way to look back.
• 40:37
  At,
• 40:37
  uh,
• 40:38
  whether progressivism had a big night or not.
• 40:40
  If you're getting a lot of these people who are in,
• 40:42
  you know,
• 40:42
  if you're getting 19 and 14% favorites to win,
• 40:45
  it's a big night for progressivism.
• 40:46
  If they're only winning the races and maybe they lose an 85% favorite,
• 40:50
  maybe the opposite story should be told.
• 40:52
  It's going to be a very interesting thing.
• 40:53
  I will say looking at this as far as value goes.
• 40:57
  Both Minnesota and Oregon are just,
• 40:59
  they're so tempting to me.
• 41:01
  Uh,
• 41:01
  they're so tempting.
• 41:01
  In a blue year,
• 41:03
  it's just so hard to believe
• 41:05
  that
• 41:06
  voters in Minnesota and Oregon would pick the Republican.
• 41:10
  Again,
• 41:10
  like Peggy Flanagan is at 83%.
• 41:12
  That's a nice profit for a week.
• 41:14
  You're talking about basically 20% profit,
• 41:16
  uh,
• 41:16
  in a week
• 41:18
  if you were to go that direction with Flanagan.
• 41:20
  But you look at Flanagan,
• 41:21
  she's just an oddball,
• 41:22
  man,
• 41:23
  like she dresses like a weirdo,
• 41:24
  uh,
• 41:25
  I know,
• 41:26
  I,
• 41:26
  and then Michelle Tafoya,
• 41:28
  who's,
• 41:28
  you know,
• 41:28
  again,
• 41:28
  it's unfair,
• 41:29
  she's been a television personality for a long time.
• 41:32
  She comes off as very normal,
• 41:33
  very relatable.
• 41:35
  But can a Republican win in Minnesota in this climate?
• 41:38
  Same thing happening over in,
• 41:39
  uh,
• 41:40
  you know,
• 41:40
  a little bit different dynamic,
• 41:41
  with the Oregon governor's race,
• 41:43
  which is one of my bigger positions,
• 41:45
  uh,
• 41:45
  on Tina Kottek to win there,
• 41:47
  but the polling has been very,
• 41:48
  very close
• 41:49
  for someone who's in that position,
• 41:51
  I will say,
• 41:51
  so.
• 41:52
  That's where we stand right now.
• 41:53
  Our candidates today is 11 different people.
• 41:54
  We're gonna keep track of these people
• 41:56
  and,
• 41:56
  and revisit this after the election,
• 41:58
  uh,
• 41:58
  to say,
• 41:59
  hey,
• 41:59
  how did the Socialists actually do by their own standards they set
• 42:02
  beforehand
• 42:03
  rather than the,
• 42:04
  you know,
• 42:05
  the spin room afterward.
• 42:06
  So we'll follow that closely as well.
• 42:08
  Back in a second.
• 42:18
  I have over 350 positions on prediction markets,
• 42:22
  the majority of them probably about
• 42:24
  the election that's gonna end up in a week.
• 42:26
  And then I'm gonna have a lot,
• 42:27
  uh,
• 42:27
  a much lighter diet.
• 42:29
  Of the,
• 42:30
  uh,
• 42:30
  of,
• 42:30
  of physicians,
• 42:31
  but all of them are up on PredictableShow.com.
• 42:33
  If you wanna go there,
• 42:34
  uh,
• 42:35
  you'd be a premium subscriber.
• 42:36
  You can see all of my picks when I make them.
• 42:38
  Uh,
• 42:38
  you get a nice advance of that before we really ever,
• 42:40
  most of the time even talk about them on the air.
• 42:43
  Uh,
• 42:43
  and if you're someone who trades markets,
• 42:44
  you're gonna find great value,
• 42:46
  uh,
• 42:46
  in this election.
• 42:47
  Look,
• 42:48
  there is money to be made on this election.
• 42:49
  We're gonna make some of it.
• 42:50
  And I,
• 42:51
  I,
• 42:51
  I wanna make sure.
• 42:52
  I wanna try to put ourselves in a position where we're going to be positive,
• 42:55
  uh,
• 42:55
  for,
• 42:55
  uh,
• 42:56
  this election cycle.
• 42:57
  I think we're,
• 42:57
  you know,
• 42:58
  I,
• 42:58
  I did a little analysis of this on my own,
• 43:00
  uh,
• 43:00
  positions
• 43:01
  over the weekend.
• 43:03
  About 70% of,
• 43:04
  of where we are,
• 43:05
  are up right now.
• 43:06
  There's a bunch that are around even from where I bought them.
• 43:09
  Few that are down that make me worried,
• 43:11
  uh,
• 43:11
  but we're gonna look at that and on election night,
• 43:13
  we're gonna have a massive live stream.
• 43:15
  Gonna be hours and hours and hours and hours as long as my voice can hold up.
• 43:19
  And it will be us live trading these markets together,
• 43:23
  talking about these markets,
• 43:24
  analyzing the election results,
• 43:26
  doing all the things
• 43:27
  that I think will bring value to you.
• 43:29
  Um,
• 43:30
  we will have a special pre-show as well for,
• 43:32
  uh,
• 43:33
  premium subscribers only.
• 43:34
  So if you have specific questions about your markets,
• 43:36
  we're gonna try to answer every single one of those.
• 43:39
  So,
• 43:39
  on election day,
• 43:40
  sometime during the day,
• 43:41
  we'll have a pre-show.
• 43:42
  We'll join you right around the time when polls are opening.
• 43:45
  Um,
• 43:46
  for the day,
• 43:47
  and we'll be trading those markets live.
• 43:49
  We're also gonna give you tons of resources and
• 43:50
  there are tons of resources already at predictableShow.com.
• 43:53
  We're in the middle of doing our packet,
• 43:54
  uh,
• 43:55
  for,
• 43:55
  um,
• 43:56
  election night and to kind of get you ready for that.
• 43:59
  When you kind of look at the way
• 44:02
  all of this plays out,
• 44:04
  what you're gonna see,
• 44:05
  I think,
• 44:06
  is um
• 44:07
  a real.
• 44:09
  A collection of tools that I don't think have ever been available anywhere,
• 44:12
  frankly.
• 44:13
  If you want to
• 44:14
  win and,
• 44:15
  and profit on prediction markets when it comes to elections,
• 44:18
  I don't know that there's ever been a better place to go
• 44:20
  than predictableShow.com.
• 44:22
  And I think you'll,
• 44:23
  uh,
• 44:23
  if you go there and you're a member,
• 44:24
  I think you'll understand that
• 44:26
  by the time we get there because there's going to be a ton,
• 44:28
  we already have a ton of tools up there for you to use.
• 44:31
  Uh,
• 44:31
  election models,
• 44:32
  all stuff that's fun like Senate Fantasy,
• 44:35
  all the way to,
• 44:35
  you know,
• 44:36
  uh,
• 44:36
  a million other options.
• 44:37
  So go check it out.
• 44:38
  PredictableShow.com.
• 44:39
  This is a great time to join PredictableShow.com.
• 44:43
  Thank you so much for joining us.
• 44:44
  We'll talk to you tomorrow.