Latest / Rittener Reflections / 1: 2025 Cross Border Trade Certainties
Transcript
- Cross_Border_Trade_Certainties_2025 === Jeff Rittener: [00:00:00] Hello and Happy New Year 2025. My name is Jeff Rittner and I am excited to start the new year by posting my first podcast. I am the former Chief Trade Officer, Vice President and General Manager of the International Trade Group at Intel. Over my 34 year career, I had the privilege of leading numerous global teams, working with some of the most brilliant and talented people at Intel. in industry to shape the trade environment for Intel. Together we advanced business strategies, we opened new market opportunities. We ensured compliance while accelerating growth. It was my dream job. Outside of Intel, I sit on a government advisory committee for the Bureau of Industry and Security, providing input on potential policies and regulations. I am also a member of the Advisory Council for the Asia Society. Over the past 25 years, I have also had the [00:01:00] privilege of serving as chairman of the board for a non profit organization focused on improving the lives of children through after school programs. I am an avid long distance runner with an ongoing aspiration to run all six programs. of the world major marathons, with only three more to go. Tokyo, Berlin, and the ever elusive Boston Marathon. I am always trying to keep up with my four children and five grandchildren. Words others have used to describe me include integrity, visionary, strategic, team builder, optimistic, proactive, coach, adaptable, collaborative, leader, trusted. For today's podcast, I intend to briefly describe my career and experiences with cross border trade. Discuss the reason for such a podcast [00:02:00] and end , with some of my reflections regarding 2025 and the world of trade. But first, how did I get my dream job at Intel? Well, out of college, I had a vague idea of what I wanted to do. my job or career to be. I finished college with a degree in international business. People would ask me, what are you going to do with that? It was a good question because I had no idea. I imagined that somehow I would be working on issues that involve international or cross border business. I would work with people from all over the world and accomplish something meaningful to the world. Looking back, I can honestly say that what I do today is almost exactly what I had envisioned 30 plus years ago. So how did this happen? Well, my first job introduced me to the world of trade. [00:03:00] I was an export clerk for a film company that made floppy disks. I learned the basics of my craft where I gained broad but shallow experience in many different differing trade areas. The second job was Intel. I started as an analyst providing both export and harmonized tariff classification for all shipments to one and only foreign fab in Israel. I accomplish this work in a very interesting way, and for some of you may not recall, but we used to have what was called fax machines. And I would receive invoices via a fax machine all day long. The machine would spit them out, and they came from our freight forwarder, and my job was to look at the item being shipped, determine the classification for all the invoices, and then pick up the phone. and call the freight forwarder to walk through the classification for each item. It's hard to [00:04:00] imagine that's really how we did business back then. Some career milestones just to share with you. In my first 15 years, I was under the same manager. I became a manager after five years. Uh, I managed the export compliance group for the next 15 years. And then, um, I was given the opportunity to lead all of the trade organization at Intel at my 20 year mark. Um, four years later, uh, I became the first vice president of a trade employee at Intel. And then the following year, I was given the opportunity to bring all trade work in the geographies. to be one global trade team that was made up of about 120 employees worldwide. And then one year later, uh, we as an organization were moved into legal and government. And then through a series of events, I was hired to be Intel's first chief government affairs officer at my 29 year [00:05:00] mark. And then two years later, I was asked to return to the trade group and I became Intel's first Chief Trade Officer. In November, I left Intel as part of a severe cost cutting program and am now going through the difficult process of figuring out what to do next after over 38 years. of corporate life. It feels strange, abnormal, but somewhat exciting. I am very curious to consider the many opportunities available to someone like me, and I'm quite aware that this is also one of the most crucial times in our history for a cross border trade. The world has been rapidly moving away from the normal trade patterns developed by the during globalization towards a highly politicized national, regional, and regulatory environment.[00:06:00] How to effectively conduct cross border trade is challenging and will require a new expertise, a willingness to change and stronger commitment to compliance. This brings me to this podcast and why I am doing this. There are really three reasons. One, it sounds like a fun project. Uh, two, cross border trade is so important today and it is worth talking about. And three, many of my colleagues have encouraged me to keep publishing my Rittner Reflections. As a result, I am calling this podcast Rittner Reflections. This is the name of an internal publication that I delivered while at Intel. over the past five years. During this time, I published 156 unique reflections to my global team and to many others who opted in to receive the publication. These reflections included my thoughts on what was happening at Intel, in the world of cross border trade, [00:07:00] and in some cases, my own personal life. I recall when I made my first publication as we entered the realities of the COVID pandemic back in March of 2020. I recognized at this moment how desperate employees were for information from leadership as their working lives were turned upside down. Everyone around the world found themselves suddenly locked out of the office and they were required to continue their work from their homes. It was an unsettling moment in which there were more questions than answers. Initially, I published a reflection twice a week. After a few months, it changed, and two months a week, and then after six months or so, I moved to every other week. And over time, I began to insert videos of my messages, but one way or another, the team always received an email from me every two weeks for [00:08:00] more than four years. Upon leaving Intel, one of the most common comments I received were regrets on not receiving my written reflections anymore. I was asked on several occasions to find a way to continue producing them, and this podcast is my attempt. Going forward, I plan to publish a podcast every other week, and I will offer my reflections on things pertaining to cross border trade, geopolitics, my personal life, and or other relevant topics. I plan on including others at times via maybe interviews or panels. Uh, given the dynamic and essential nature of cross border trade in our world today, I foresee no shortage. of things to discuss. I am hopeful that you will find meaning, inspiration, and, uh, some good information from these segments. Please offer your [00:09:00] feedback and ideas as we go along. Well, to wrap up today's podcast let me offer a few reflections about 2025. What can we expect in the world of cross border trade. I recently read the results of a new Gallup poll that was released on December 30th of last year. Um, this is a poll that Gallup has taken every year at the same time since, uh, 1960. And in it, um, they ask Americans for their predictions for the coming year on various aspects of U. S. affairs and daily life. Not surprisingly, most U. S. adults polled think 2025 will be a year of political conflict. economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power of China and Russia, and a rising federal budget. There was some optimism as nearly [00:10:00] 66 percent expect a gain in the stock market and increasing employment. So as I read this, I couldn't help but think about how every one of these predictions have major implications on the world of cross border trade. It is really consistent with what I have witnessed over the past 70 years. Worldwide trade has become increasingly complex, risky, and unpredictable. Those who engage in cross border trade have been forced to change long standing practices and their supply chain to continue providing the world with goods. with the desired goods at an optimal cost. I believe that this coming year will continue to present those who engage in cross border trade with uncertainty and challenge. However, as I look ahead at 2025, I see five things you can [00:11:00] be certain of in the world of cross border trade. The first, with a new president. With new players and new policies, it will lead to unpredictability and volatility. This is going to require traders to be alert. You will need to establish robust sensing capabilities and rely on strong government affairs relationships. Number two, geopolitical tension led by U.S., China, Russia, and the Middle East. This will lead to increased regulations and sanctions. As a result, it will require traders to anticipate potential actions across the globe. You will need to proactively identify alternatives, plan Bs, and other mechanisms. Already this year, in response to stringent U. S. regulations and the threat of tariffs, we have seen China add [00:12:00] more U.S. companies to their unreliable entity list. Three, you can expect increasing use of sanctions. This will lead to greater compliance risk for companies and greater circumvention of these rules. This is going to require traders to analyze all business relationships across their entire portfolio. You will need to implement robust processes and systems to ensure compliance. And four, as a result of all this, you can expect re energized and focused enforcement, leading to more scrutiny, fines, and penalties. This is going to require traders to assess their compliance programs. You can no longer cut corners and rely on old practices. Compliance must be prioritized from the top down. And finally, as we all have heard, tariffs. Tariffs will be [00:13:00] used as a weapon leading to both offensive and defensive plays by countries and companies. This is going to require traders to adjust. you will need to determine how to de risk and to readjust supply chains to minimize any disruption and to reduce additional costs. In summary, for those participating in cross border trade, you will need to consider these five actions. 1. Be alert. 2. Anticipate. 3. Analyze. 4. Assess. And 5. Adjust. With this, I wish you all a Happy New Year. May every one of your hopeful aspirations turn into profound gratitude by year's end. Thanks for listening. I plan on publishing my next podcast right before the inauguration, and I'm [00:14:00] sure we'll have lots to talk about. Until then, thank you very much. We'll see you soon.