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Should you fear the 'silver tsunami'? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Our two of the Financial Exchange.
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Speaker 3: And we've got markets well kind of mixed, but not really.
1:17
Speaker 3: The Dow, which is not a real index at least,
1:21
Speaker 3: just shouldn't be the most popular one given that it
1:23
Speaker 3: only has thirty companies in the US. The Dow's off
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Speaker 3: four points, down point zero one percent. SP's up forty
1:29
Speaker 3: six three quarters of percent in NASDAC up two hundred
1:31
Speaker 3: and seventy three points are about one point four percent.
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Speaker 3: So you've got a pretty broad rally taking place here,
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Speaker 3: but the Dow still underwater, just because that rally is
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Speaker 3: mostly happening in tech today. So you've got Apple about
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Speaker 3: one and a half percent, now, Amazon up one and
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Speaker 3: a half, Google Meta all kind of in the same range,
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Speaker 3: Tesla up four percent two days after reporting objectively bad earnings,
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Speaker 3: Tesla continuing to rally for known reasons. Broad Com up
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Speaker 3: four percent in video, making a small little rebound today
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Speaker 3: up about one percent. Microsoft up half percent as well.
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Speaker 3: So that's where most of the action is. The rest
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Speaker 3: of the index just kind of not great, quite honestly,
2:14
Speaker 3: especially energy, which is selling off pretty hard today. We've
2:19
Speaker 3: got the ten year treasury down four tenths of a
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Speaker 3: basis point to four point five eight percent.
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Speaker 2: Is there a formal name for a tenth for a
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Speaker 2: tenth of a basis point? No? Tenth of basis point? Actually, okay,
2:35
Speaker 2: you got it. Oil is West Text Intermediate.
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Speaker 3: We've got down twenty seven cents of barrel to seventy
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Speaker 3: two to forty six, the triple A national average for
2:42
Speaker 3: gas prices down seven tens of a cent to three
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Speaker 3: eleven on the nose. And we've got gold today up
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Speaker 3: another ten dollars and seventy cents announced to twenty eight
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Speaker 3: to fifty five and ninety cents. Yet another fifty two
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Speaker 3: week high for gold today as it continues to stretch
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Speaker 3: its legs to words three thousands. The US is probing
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Speaker 3: if Deep Seek got in video chips from firms in
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Speaker 3: Singapore in videos, saying that all of their customers comply
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Speaker 3: with the laws, But the White House and FBI are
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Speaker 3: trying to figure out, Hey, did Deep Seek actually have
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Speaker 3: access to the types of invidio chips that are restricted
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Speaker 3: for export to China? Did they get them through an intermediary?
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Speaker 3: You and I have absolutely no idea we could speculate
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Speaker 3: this that or whatever I have no clue. But the
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Speaker 3: important thing is not whether or not they did, but
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Speaker 3: why is this story being talked about?
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the fact that it's printed indicates something.
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Speaker 4: And look, we've talked at length during how many conversations, Chuck,
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Speaker 4: have we had about Look, when you put an export
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Speaker 4: band into something, you typically get some leakage into the
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Speaker 4: country that you're trying to forget go from.
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Speaker 3: And so there are people who make lots of money
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Speaker 3: smuggling this, that and whatever across. They're pretty successful, that's
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Speaker 3: what they do. So did deepseeak get trained on the
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Speaker 3: latest AI chips? We can't really know. I don't know
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Speaker 3: that any report will be definitive on that. I also
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Speaker 3: suspect that nobody will be able to be prosecuted successfully
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Speaker 3: on it. And again, what this comes back to is
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Speaker 3: the claims DeepC kid Deep Seek have made our game
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Speaker 3: changing If true, and we won't need to wait long.
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Speaker 3: We won't need to wait for some investigation by the
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Speaker 3: United States. I don't know who does export control investigations,
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Speaker 3: maybe the Treasury Department. We won't need to wait for
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Speaker 3: them to do this because as we speak, it is
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Speaker 3: very likely that Microsoft Meta and dozens of other firms
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Speaker 3: are attempting to replicate what deep seek did on their own. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: so that's and it won't take a year, It'll take
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Speaker 3: maybe sixty days. So we'll learn more about this as
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Speaker 3: we go forward here. But this this is something where again,
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Speaker 3: whether they did or didn't use it, I don't think
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Speaker 3: is the real story because ultimately, like they're again, there
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Speaker 3: are going to be some of these in video chips
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Speaker 3: that make their way into China. Of course, it's it's
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Speaker 3: just not possible for them not to. There's there's too
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Speaker 3: much money at stake and too much importance for them
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Speaker 3: not to. The real question is, hey, is there something
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Speaker 3: that other companies can build on with what deep zeek did,
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Speaker 3: And if there is, that's the real game change or
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Speaker 3: not whether or not you know.
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Speaker 4: These specific chips were used, and you can still be
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Speaker 4: successful with a ban by creating a scarcity of those chips.
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Speaker 2: To be clear, right, like, let's say they did get through.
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Speaker 4: It is not a game changing story if a certain
5:44
Speaker 4: number of these chips went through.
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Speaker 3: Big story out of the Boston area yesterday, the FDA
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Speaker 3: yesterday approving a new non opioid painkiller from Vertex Pharmaceuticals
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Speaker 3: that the drugmaker says has no risk of addiction, and
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Speaker 3: that could become kind of the alternative to prescription opioids.
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Speaker 3: It's gonna be marketed as marketed as gernaviics.
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Speaker 2: That's the first drug you haven't required me to try
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Speaker 2: and pronounce.
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Speaker 3: Because it's only two syllables and so it's it's approved
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Speaker 3: two and a half. Like when you have a made
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Speaker 3: up word like this, like you don't you don't have
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Speaker 3: V and X coexisting next to each other in nature.
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Speaker 3: That that's just not like how it works. But anyways,
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Speaker 3: it's gonna be approved to treat moderate to severe acute pain.
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Speaker 3: So think about things that follow surgery. Eighty million people
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Speaker 3: in the US typically have you know, that type of
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Speaker 3: pain treatment needed each year. And they did two trials
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Speaker 3: of patients that underwent surgery, and it led to a
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Speaker 3: fifty percent reduction in pain. It acted faster than perceieble
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Speaker 3: with fewer side effects than a pill that combined acetomnifin
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Speaker 3: and hydrocodone, which is again the combination of those is
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Speaker 3: vicotin It did not provide better relief than the opioid
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Speaker 3: combination in one of the trials and was inferior to
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Speaker 3: the combination in the other. But they still think that
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Speaker 3: the fact that hey, you can prescribe this without the
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Speaker 3: risk of addiction, Yeah, that's.
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Speaker 2: A pretty big game.
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Speaker 3: Changes are pretty meaningful here, so they think that this
7:16
Speaker 3: can be a billion dollar.
7:17
Speaker 2: A year drug.
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Speaker 4: Early trading so far this morning Vertex Pharmaceuticals moving up
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Speaker 4: a little bit more than six and a half percent
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Speaker 4: on this news. And there is not a single person
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Speaker 4: listening who fails to understand how desperately important to change
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Speaker 4: like this to how we treat pain. It's touched every
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Speaker 4: American family life in some way, shape or form. So
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Speaker 4: I think everyone listening can understand how significant this could
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Speaker 4: be if it is able to treat pain similarly to
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Speaker 4: things like hydrocoda.
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Speaker 3: Now, there are some people in the medical field who
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Speaker 3: are saying, look, to this point, there hasn't been anything
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Speaker 3: that's shown any risk of dition here, but the studies
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Speaker 3: that have gone on are not long term enough yep
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Speaker 3: to indicate whether or not that is the case indefinitely,
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Speaker 3: And so I do think that that's something that's worth
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Speaker 3: noting on this is Hey, the data to this point
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Speaker 3: has been promising, but you still have to see kind
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Speaker 3: of how this works before you know, you get the
8:19
Speaker 3: sense that that's actually you know for sure, but again
8:23
Speaker 3: some promising stuff here, and this now approved and should
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Speaker 3: be making its way into medical systems around the country
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Speaker 3: over the next I would in the coming months, I
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Speaker 3: would imagine.
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Speaker 2: No doubt, take a quick break here.
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Speaker 3: When we return, we're going to be joined by Todd
8:39
Speaker 3: Lutsky from Cushing and Dolan, and then we'll do a
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Speaker 3: little bit of trivia right after this.
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Speaker 5: Time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange On this day.
9:20
Speaker 5: In two thousand and six, Alan Greenspan retired as Chairman
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Speaker 5: of the Federal Reserve. Green Span served eighteen years as
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Speaker 5: FED chair, serving under four presidents. Greenspan's tenure is the
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Speaker 5: second longest in Federal Reserve history. Trivia question today, who
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Speaker 5: succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Fed?
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Speaker 2: Once again?
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Speaker 5: Who succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Fed? Be
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Speaker 5: seven three six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer,
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Speaker 3: Tucker, are we still waiting on Todd Lootsky? We're getting
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Speaker 3: the qued up? Okay perfect. In the interim, I do
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Speaker 3: want to touch on a story here that gets at
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Speaker 3: kind of an institution I guess in American markets, Walgreens,
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Speaker 3: which has been paying a dividend for the past ninety
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Speaker 3: two years, canceling it as they try to conserve cash
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Speaker 3: as they're trying to turn themselves around. Cover a little
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Speaker 3: bit more on that in a bit. But we are
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Speaker 3: now joined by Todd Lotsky from the law firm of
10:38
Speaker 3: Cushing and Dolan. Todd, how are you today?
10:40
Speaker 6: I am never better? How are you.
10:43
Speaker 2: Doing well, Todd.
10:43
Speaker 3: If someone is trying to figure out the right age
10:46
Speaker 3: to incorporate long term care planning into their estate plan,
10:51
Speaker 3: what age range kind of is the sweet spot there?
10:55
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a really popular question. So when whatever you
10:58
Speaker 6: meet with a client it a little you know what,
11:02
Speaker 6: you always look at their age because that does help
11:05
Speaker 6: determine whether we want to talk about revocable trust or
11:08
Speaker 6: irrevocable trust. There's many other factors, of course, the amount
11:11
Speaker 6: of money you have, the asset level, you know, family dynamics,
11:14
Speaker 6: things like that also need to come into play. But
11:17
Speaker 6: to your point, age, you know, it's my own rule
11:21
Speaker 6: of thumb, sixty sixty five somewhere in that range, I'm
11:26
Speaker 6: going to at least ask the question, is one of
11:30
Speaker 6: the reasons you're here to learn how to protect the
11:34
Speaker 6: assets from the cost of long term care? Let them
11:37
Speaker 6: tell me. And the reason I pick that age, again,
11:39
Speaker 6: no law says to do this, but the reason I
11:42
Speaker 6: pick that age is, you know, it takes five years
11:45
Speaker 6: to protect it. So you know, if I'm sixty five,
11:47
Speaker 6: I'd like to have this in my rear view mirror
11:49
Speaker 6: by the time I'm seventy.
11:51
Speaker 3: Let's say that you have a long term care situation
11:54
Speaker 3: that you are now facing and you haven't done that planning.
11:56
Speaker 3: What kind of options are available to you in that situation?
12:00
Speaker 6: So, and that is going to vary, of course, depending
12:03
Speaker 6: on whether or not you're single or marriage. You wouldn't
12:06
Speaker 6: think about it, but there are different rules for that.
12:09
Speaker 6: The key is that each asset you have also varies.
12:13
Speaker 6: So you know, if you've got a house, how is
12:15
Speaker 6: that treated versus a rental property versus a vacation home.
12:19
Speaker 6: And then what about life insurance or just money sitting
12:23
Speaker 6: in an investment account. They're all treated differently. But there
12:26
Speaker 6: are ways to make those countable assets non countable last
12:33
Speaker 6: minute for Medicaid eligibility, and they differ depending on whether
12:37
Speaker 6: you're a single person or you have a healthy spouse
12:41
Speaker 6: at home. Folks, the goal here is don't write the
12:45
Speaker 6: check to the nursing home. If you're faced with that situation.
12:48
Speaker 6: Figure out what you can do last minute to protect
12:51
Speaker 6: the assets are slow to financial bleeding. Call and get
12:54
Speaker 6: the guide long Term Care Planning for procrastinators. It will
12:58
Speaker 6: explain this process for both married and single people. Eight
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Speaker 6: six six eight four eight five six ninety nine or
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Speaker 6: Legal Exchange show dot com again eight six six eight
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Speaker 6: four eight five six nine nine or Legal Exchange Show
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Speaker 6: dot com. It is the end of the month, folks.
13:19
Speaker 2: Mister Lutski, thank you so much for joining us today.
13:22
Speaker 6: Always a pleasure. Thank you.
13:24
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the views express are
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Speaker 1: solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
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13:34
Speaker 3: So as as I had mentioned prior to speaking with
13:37
Speaker 3: Todd there, Walgreens has been paying a dividend for ninety
13:41
Speaker 3: two years in a row.
13:44
Speaker 2: Pretty good run.
13:45
Speaker 3: You know, They've they've seen some stuff during that time,
13:48
Speaker 3: and they are now suspending their quarterly divient. I give
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Speaker 3: them some credit. They're not cutting it to like one
13:54
Speaker 3: cent per share in the attempt to, you know, say
13:56
Speaker 3: that they're maintaining it like that, that kind of facade. No,
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Speaker 3: they're saying, look, we're going through a pretty big turnaround
14:04
Speaker 3: right now. We need this cash and we need to
14:07
Speaker 3: do this in order to survive. Is pretty much the
14:11
Speaker 3: message that they are putting out there. So the stock
14:15
Speaker 3: did fall about thirteen percent in pre market trading today
14:20
Speaker 3: after this announcement, looking at where it stands at this point,
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Speaker 3: still down about twelve and a half, so no major
14:28
Speaker 3: recovery there. But this is a stock that by and
14:30
Speaker 3: large has just been sliding pretty much non stop since
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Speaker 3: I mean quite honestly, like if you want to go
14:38
Speaker 3: back to where the slide really started, you're talking like
14:43
Speaker 3: twenty fifteen.
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Speaker 2: I think it peaked.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was ninety six bucks a share in August
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Speaker 3: of fifteen, and it kind of chopped around a little bit,
14:50
Speaker 3: but it's basically just been sliding for the better part
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Speaker 3: of the last eight or nine years, and this is
14:57
Speaker 3: an attempt to finally try to, you know, stem the bleeding.
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Speaker 1: This.
15:00
Speaker 3: So they they're trading at about ten dollars a share
15:03
Speaker 3: right now. The last time they were in this range
15:05
Speaker 3: was December ninety six, so the stock is basically where
15:08
Speaker 3: it was thirty years ago. Now, obviously you've been able
15:12
Speaker 3: to collect dividends during that time, so the total return
15:15
Speaker 3: over that time is not zero.
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Speaker 2: But Walgreen's pretty much trying to do a complete reset
15:22
Speaker 2: here as they try to figure out, hey, how can
15:26
Speaker 2: we you know, is it possible for a large pharmacy
15:31
Speaker 2: to make money in the United States right now, and
15:34
Speaker 2: this is something that's facing CVS as well. Right eight
15:36
Speaker 2: has gone through a bankruptcy. I mean, there's a lot
15:38
Speaker 2: of problems with the pharmacy industry right now, and there
15:44
Speaker 2: really aren't many good answers. And here's the thing.
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Speaker 3: I know that a lot of people look at pharmacies
15:52
Speaker 3: and are kind of like, oh, I feel like I'm
15:54
Speaker 3: getting ripped off there, and that's just because like you
15:56
Speaker 3: pay the drug cost there at the pharmacy. But ultimately,
16:00
Speaker 3: if you look at what a pharmacy needs to do,
16:02
Speaker 3: and for a lot of people also, maybe you go
16:05
Speaker 3: and get a prescription every now and then and it's okay,
16:08
Speaker 3: like I could do that job, like how hard could
16:10
Speaker 3: it be. But there are more people than you realize
16:13
Speaker 3: that are on multiple prescriptions and maybe have new ones
16:17
Speaker 3: or ones that are changing. And for those people, the
16:21
Speaker 3: ability of a pharmacist to make sure that those prescriptions
16:24
Speaker 3: are not conflicting with each other and causing potential life
16:28
Speaker 3: threatening side effects is pretty important because oftentimes people are
16:32
Speaker 3: being prescribed things from completely different doctors that don't have
16:36
Speaker 3: access to all of the medical records of what someone
16:39
Speaker 3: is taking and so the ability of a pharmacist to
16:44
Speaker 3: be able to say, hey, I see that you're taking X,
16:47
Speaker 3: Y and Z. You've been prescribed this, I'm not sure
16:49
Speaker 3: that that's going to work is hugely important for those people.
16:53
Speaker 3: And that's why pharmacy school is actually a thing. Like
16:57
Speaker 3: you can't just walk into a pharmacy and get a
16:59
Speaker 3: job as a pharmacist. You have to actually go to
17:02
Speaker 3: school for it. It's not just take five pills from
17:05
Speaker 3: this one and put it in the bottle and hand
17:07
Speaker 3: it to you. There's a lot that goes into it
17:10
Speaker 3: in terms of understanding the safety and the pharmacology and
17:14
Speaker 3: how all of these things work together, because you can
17:17
Speaker 3: have some real problems there. So I think that one
17:21
Speaker 3: of the big problems that we may be facing over
17:24
Speaker 3: the next decade is the pharmacy industry is kind of
17:29
Speaker 3: dying in America, and it's happening at a time when
17:32
Speaker 3: we are aging and taking more and more prescriptions. And
17:37
Speaker 3: I don't really have I have no answers for how
17:40
Speaker 3: to solve this, but this is just something that I
17:44
Speaker 3: think has the potential to become an underappreciated problem over
17:48
Speaker 3: the next decade and Walgreen's trying to turn things around
17:52
Speaker 3: on their end, but they've got an uphill battle at
17:55
Speaker 3: this point, and the cutting of that ninety two year
17:58
Speaker 3: streak of dividends, I can guarantee you they didn't want
18:02
Speaker 3: to do it, but they kind of had to, and
18:04
Speaker 3: that's why it's why they're doing it at this point.
18:07
Speaker 4: Yeah, for me, who doesn't frequently visit a pharmacy, it's
18:10
Speaker 4: easy to write off the importance there and say, look,
18:12
Speaker 4: there are plenty of There are plenty of online pharmacies
18:14
Speaker 4: who will deliver prescriptions right to yours doorstep, and that
18:17
Speaker 4: stuff still exists. But I think most people who live
18:22
Speaker 4: in a non rural setting understand the importance of having
18:26
Speaker 4: the availability of a pharmacy. I mean, heck, with young kids,
18:32
Speaker 4: I've had to go to a farm, but you know,
18:34
Speaker 4: find a twenty four hour pharmacy on more than one occasion.
18:38
Speaker 4: And we're not heading to a point where that doesn't exist.
18:42
Speaker 4: But there is a lot of financial pressure on these
18:45
Speaker 4: and they've been looking for a long time ways to
18:49
Speaker 4: rejuvenate and reshape that business. What it leads me to
18:52
Speaker 4: think is that we are heading for just a much
18:54
Speaker 4: smaller pharmacy down the road because the front of store
18:57
Speaker 4: stuff that used to drive sales there is not working
19:00
Speaker 4: anymore and it might just need to look a lot different.
19:04
Speaker 2: Take a quick break here.
19:06
Speaker 3: When we return, though, we do have the trivia answer
19:10
Speaker 3: that's always exciting to see who won that, and then
19:15
Speaker 3: our baby boomers Boogeyman find out after this break. On
19:22
Speaker 3: the Financial Exchange.
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Speaker 5: USVII dot com and use code Vibe twenty twenty five
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Speaker 5: to book your trip. That's visit USVII dot com and
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Speaker 5: code Vibe twenty twenty five. Trivia question today was who
20:55
Speaker 5: succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Fed? That'll be
21:00
Speaker 5: Ben Bernank. On February first, two thousand and six, Berniki
21:04
Speaker 5: began his tenure as the Chairman of the Fed. He
21:08
Speaker 5: then went on to serve for seven years in three
21:11
Speaker 5: hundred and sixty four days. Brendan from Dover, New Hampshire
21:14
Speaker 5: was our winner today today taking home a Financial Looks
21:17
Speaker 5: Shane Show t shirt. Congrats to Brendan and we play
21:21
Speaker 5: trivia every day here on the Financial Looks Shane. See
21:24
Speaker 5: complete contest rules at Financial Looks Shane Show dot com.
21:27
Speaker 2: What do you think Ben Bernek's spirit animal is.
21:33
Speaker 4: I'm just trying to think of what animal he looks like,
21:36
Speaker 4: and yeah, I don't know that I'm gonna say anything
21:39
Speaker 4: because I just feel like I'm gonna come up with
21:41
Speaker 4: something offensive. Groundhog groundhog huh two reasons, I think kind
21:46
Speaker 4: of gives off those vibes. But also you just pull
21:49
Speaker 4: him out every six weeks and if he sees the shadow,
21:52
Speaker 4: rates go up.
21:53
Speaker 2: If he doesn't, rates go down. Oh okay, I don't know.
21:57
Speaker 3: Let's turn to this piece boomers as boogeyman? Should you
22:00
Speaker 3: fear the silver tsunami? I've got a few questions about
22:02
Speaker 3: this piece. Where did the silver tsunami come from? Because
22:05
Speaker 3: I I kind of now love that phrase.
22:06
Speaker 2: You've never heard that before? No, oh, that's been around
22:08
Speaker 2: for a while.
22:11
Speaker 3: My question is why does the New York Times have
22:13
Speaker 3: a section dedicated to how it's pronounced silver tsunami? Is
22:19
Speaker 3: there really question as to how to do that? And
22:21
Speaker 3: in a headline that also includes the word boogeyman? Why
22:25
Speaker 3: are you not telling us how to pronounce that?
22:28
Speaker 2: Yeah? Is anybody confused about the pronunciation of tsunami? I
22:31
Speaker 2: mean that's a word that we see pretty often.
22:33
Speaker 3: I guess someone maybe who's never seen it before, could
22:36
Speaker 3: go like silami. But like, I don't know, why why
22:43
Speaker 3: do you have silver in there? Is the pronunciation too. Anyways,
22:47
Speaker 3: what the silver tsunami is is, Look, boomers are getting older,
22:50
Speaker 3: and as they age, there are certain products that they
22:54
Speaker 3: are going to buy more of, certain products they are
22:56
Speaker 3: going to buy less of, and eventually they're going to die.
23:00
Speaker 2: Newsflash, all of us are.
23:02
Speaker 3: And when that happens, obviously there's a huge wealth transfer
23:05
Speaker 3: that happens to their kids, other family members and so
23:08
Speaker 3: on and so forth.
23:12
Speaker 4: So, by the way, they note in here that some
23:15
Speaker 4: find the term silver tsunami offensive. Who if you're getting
23:20
Speaker 4: offended by the term silver tsunami.
23:22
Speaker 2: You got it pretty good.
23:23
Speaker 3: If that's the worst thing that's happening in your day
23:24
Speaker 3: is someone calling you the silver tsunami. I would love
23:27
Speaker 3: if my nickname were the silver tsunami.
23:29
Speaker 4: If you are, you know, offended by a twenty five
23:32
Speaker 4: year old blaming you for the price of eggs, lack
23:35
Speaker 4: of new homes, skyrocketing cost of gold, global warming, fiscal deficit,
23:38
Speaker 4: prescription drug access, student loan debt, mortgage rates, the decline
23:42
Speaker 4: of public union roles, and the promotion you didn't get
23:45
Speaker 4: at work. You can be offended by that because that's stupid.
23:47
Speaker 2: Boomers didn't do that. Boomers did not do that.
23:49
Speaker 4: Oh, but the term silver tsunami, give me a break.
23:53
Speaker 2: It sounds awesome.
23:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what a good wrestling name, right, Tucker,
23:59
Speaker 3: Is there any one name the silver tsunami in wrestling?
24:02
Speaker 5: I don't believe there is there.
24:03
Speaker 2: Should be, right, I didn't even think of it for that.
24:07
Speaker 4: Yeah, But in any case, this article is mainly about
24:12
Speaker 4: some form of angst.
24:13
Speaker 2: That there is a large portion of baby boomers. So
24:16
Speaker 2: we're going to work through our population and get older.
24:19
Speaker 4: This is something that we knew a lot about for
24:22
Speaker 4: a long period of time, so it's not going to
24:24
Speaker 4: come as a surprise to any person that even thinks
24:27
Speaker 4: about the future. We are already experience experiencing some of
24:32
Speaker 4: the effects of it. And yeah, it will change society,
24:36
Speaker 4: make no mistake. It will change a lot of the
24:38
Speaker 4: features of the makeup of our population, the types of
24:43
Speaker 4: services that people require, where people live. All of these
24:48
Speaker 4: things are being affected by the retiring baby retiring and
24:50
Speaker 4: then aging baby boomers.
24:53
Speaker 2: And none of it is really concerning to me.
24:56
Speaker 3: One missive from the Institute of Public Health at Washington
24:59
Speaker 3: University Saint Louis called the phrase fatalistic and negative and
25:03
Speaker 3: suggested it be eliminated from writing. What's fatalistic about saying
25:07
Speaker 3: that we're all gonna die? Well, we're all going to die. Yeah,
25:13
Speaker 3: I like, I'm sorry, but silver doesn't imply that it does.
25:19
Speaker 3: You get gray, you get close to dying. Yeah, as
25:22
Speaker 3: someone who has some gray hairs, like the few hairs
25:23
Speaker 3: that are left on my head are starting to go gray. Yeah,
25:26
Speaker 3: you know, like it makes you think about it. But look,
25:28
Speaker 3: we don't deal well with death in America. I'm sorry,
25:31
Speaker 3: but we don't. And I think a lot of our
25:32
Speaker 3: problems come back to this is the fact that for
25:35
Speaker 3: some reason, we don't talk about death. Like we come
25:37
Speaker 3: up with all these idioms like oh, they passed away
25:39
Speaker 3: or you know, it was his turn, and no, like
25:43
Speaker 3: you're gonna die all of us, and the sooner that
25:46
Speaker 3: we can like accept this and become at peace with that,
25:51
Speaker 3: I think it'll rectify a lot of this stuff.
25:53
Speaker 4: Also, anybody telling you that they know how the trend
25:56
Speaker 4: is going to play out and issuing big warnings like
26:00
Speaker 4: give me a break, because there's people out there saying, like,
26:04
Speaker 4: wait for this housing collapse we're all going to experience
26:07
Speaker 4: when all the baby boomers start to downsize.
26:10
Speaker 2: Well, guess what now times out, it's not happening.
26:13
Speaker 4: They want to stay in their giant homes because there's
26:15
Speaker 4: no small houses to move into, there's no downsizing available,
26:18
Speaker 4: and they don't want to live in condos. And the
26:20
Speaker 4: exact opposite has now happened with the housing supply. There
26:23
Speaker 4: is a lack of homes for sale, and there is
26:26
Speaker 4: a record number of baby Yeah, I think baby boomers
26:30
Speaker 4: living in homes with extra bedrooms. So yeah, just be
26:35
Speaker 4: suspicious of anybody talking about the long term effects of
26:38
Speaker 4: the baby boomers working through the population.
26:41
Speaker 3: There's an online prediction market by the name of calcy
26:44
Speaker 3: Ka l Shi and it lets you bet on all
26:50
Speaker 3: kinds of stuff. It can let you bet on political polling,
26:53
Speaker 3: it can let you bet on like the confirmation of
26:56
Speaker 3: different members of the cabinet. I've never been on it,
26:59
Speaker 3: but like you, you can bet on all kinds of stuff.
27:02
Speaker 2: Uh.
27:02
Speaker 3: They have said that they're expected to announce today that
27:07
Speaker 3: their users will be able to buy into their prediction
27:09
Speaker 3: markets directly from brokerage accounts, just like you can buy
27:14
Speaker 3: stocks and things like that.
27:16
Speaker 2: Now, I don't know which brokerages.
27:17
Speaker 3: Are going to necessarily partner with this, or if this
27:19
Speaker 3: is going to be on like Calshi held brokerages.
27:22
Speaker 2: I I don't know, can I place my bet?
27:27
Speaker 4: Ooh?
27:27
Speaker 2: I like that Robin Hood.
27:29
Speaker 3: So here's here's the thing. And and this is I
27:34
Speaker 3: gotta tell you, this is really bad. This is really bad.
27:40
Speaker 4: And yeah, I mean we don't allow you to place
27:44
Speaker 4: I think there's really good reason that you can't log
27:47
Speaker 4: into your IRA at Fidelity, for example, and place a
27:51
Speaker 4: bet and place like play a casino game, right, which
27:55
Speaker 4: is exactly what this is. Okay, Now you can say
27:58
Speaker 4: the same thing about plenty. Do you have other things
28:00
Speaker 4: out there? And I'm sure we can have a healthy
28:04
Speaker 4: debate about whether you're more likely to hit it on
28:06
Speaker 4: a penny stock versus a Super Bowl bet.
28:11
Speaker 2: Hint, you're not likely to hit on either. But I
28:15
Speaker 2: don't think that anyone would describe this as a benefit.
28:17
Speaker 3: To the line is becoming more and more blurred between
28:22
Speaker 3: gambling and investing, and it's going to have consequences because
28:27
Speaker 3: and I say this is someone who I generally have
28:31
Speaker 3: the view like with sports betting, Hey whatever, it's not
28:34
Speaker 3: for me, but if you want to have at it,
28:36
Speaker 3: there is you know how everyone now talks about like
28:40
Speaker 3: the epidemic of opioids and how it's kind of run
28:42
Speaker 3: through America in the last twenty years. Yeah, there is
28:45
Speaker 3: an epidemic amongst people in their twenties, specifically young men
28:51
Speaker 3: with sports betting that is costing lives quite honestly, and
28:56
Speaker 3: it is getting really, really bad. And I don't say
28:59
Speaker 3: this to trivialize anything else, but more to say.
29:04
Speaker 2: I would.
29:06
Speaker 3: I don't want to guess, but I would say probably
29:11
Speaker 3: somewhere between twenty and forty percent of the people I
29:15
Speaker 3: know in their early to mid twenties have some form
29:17
Speaker 3: of gambling debt to an online betting platform.
29:22
Speaker 4: Between the biggest two that I see out there in
29:25
Speaker 4: terms of real concerning financial stuff, is this betting stuff
29:30
Speaker 4: with young young men, male Americans yep. And the succumbing
29:38
Speaker 4: to frauds and especially overseas frauds that I see, And
29:42
Speaker 4: that's also concentrating the male population. It's really concentrating the
29:46
Speaker 4: male seventy plus population on that end of things.
29:48
Speaker 2: And both of them.
29:50
Speaker 4: Are really problematic, very yeah, very very problematic, and waste
29:55
Speaker 4: and causing hundreds of thousands of dollars to disappear rapidly
29:59
Speaker 4: from people bank accounts.
30:01
Speaker 2: Just take a quick break.
30:01
Speaker 3: When we come back, we're gonna be joined by Paul
30:04
Speaker 3: and Monica from Barons. Right after this.
30:08
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30:37
Speaker 7: Ladies and gentlemen. The weekend, as.
30:47
Speaker 3: Promised, we are now joined by the one and only
30:50
Speaker 3: Paul and Monica from Barons. We're gonna talk a little
30:52
Speaker 3: bit of in video with Paul today.
30:57
Speaker 2: Paul, how you doing.
30:59
Speaker 7: I'm good.
30:59
Speaker 2: Are you guys doing?
31:00
Speaker 3: We are doing well? And Tucker too. Anyways, So we've
31:11
Speaker 3: got Paul from Baron's on here and Paul. When we
31:13
Speaker 3: look at Nvidia, uh, obviously we saw a.
31:17
Speaker 2: Big drop on Monday.
31:20
Speaker 3: Uh, what kinds of thoughts do you have about you know,
31:22
Speaker 3: kind of where the company is and whether the deep
31:25
Speaker 3: seek threat and other similar threats may impact their business
31:29
Speaker 3: going forward.
31:31
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's tough.
31:32
Speaker 8: I mean I think that investors in in Vidia probably
31:37
Speaker 8: had been ignoring the threat of competition and really didn't
31:43
Speaker 8: see this, uh you know new you know, deep seak
31:47
Speaker 8: technology from China as an issue kind of coming out
31:51
Speaker 8: of nowhere, because everyone was focused on how in Nvidia
31:54
Speaker 8: was really way ahead of its competitors in the traditional
31:59
Speaker 8: chip space, you know, mainly American companies like am D
32:03
Speaker 8: and Intel, you know, and maybe even Broadcom to a
32:06
Speaker 8: certain extent, although that's company that has done extremely well.
32:09
Speaker 8: So you know, Video has been a stock that has
32:12
Speaker 8: done extremely well over the past couple of years. Having
32:15
Speaker 8: this pullback is not probably that big of a surprise
32:19
Speaker 8: and probably healthy. I think what's interesting is that it
32:21
Speaker 8: seems like there was a fair amount of short interest,
32:25
Speaker 8: you know that or short sellers maybe targeting the stock
32:28
Speaker 8: on Monday, which is why you know, you had because
32:31
Speaker 8: of the drop of more than ten percent, you know,
32:34
Speaker 8: seventeen percent on Monday, you had short selling restrictions, you know,
32:38
Speaker 8: put into place that the Danasdack exchange, you know, so
32:42
Speaker 8: that may be limited some of the damage, and you know,
32:45
Speaker 8: Video has been bouncing back since then.
32:47
Speaker 2: Even though it's been flirting with.
32:49
Speaker 8: Some technical levels that could suggest more downside. I mean,
32:52
Speaker 8: you know, Jensen wol meeting with President Trump today at
32:56
Speaker 8: the White House, you know, according to a story we
32:58
Speaker 8: have on Barons now would be interesting to see, you
33:01
Speaker 8: know what comes of that and you know where in
33:04
Speaker 8: video goes going forward.
33:05
Speaker 3: Paul, When we look at this company, for all of
33:07
Speaker 3: the chatter about how much focus it gets, the stock
33:11
Speaker 3: basically hasn't moved since the start of last June. It's
33:14
Speaker 3: it's pretty much in the same spot it was during
33:17
Speaker 3: I think June twelfth is the data I have here.
33:20
Speaker 3: So it's been you know, the better part of eight
33:23
Speaker 3: months now and the stock has kind of just been
33:25
Speaker 3: chopping around. Is this due to concerns about the business?
33:30
Speaker 3: Did did the price just kind of grow too fast
33:33
Speaker 3: now that the rest has to catch up with it.
33:35
Speaker 3: What's your sense on what's going on here?
33:38
Speaker 7: Yeah?
33:38
Speaker 8: I think that it is not a troubling sign to
33:43
Speaker 8: see the stock flatline a little bit over the past
33:46
Speaker 8: couple of months, because you know, again, this is a
33:48
Speaker 8: company that you take the longer term view. Shares have
33:51
Speaker 8: gone up nearly two thousand percent over the past five years,
33:56
Speaker 8: it's a three trillion dollar company. Now we all know
33:59
Speaker 8: the story. We see Jensen and his heather jackets and
34:02
Speaker 8: how he's almost like the new Steve Jobs. I think
34:06
Speaker 8: that investors have been enamored with this company because of
34:10
Speaker 8: the phenomenal revenue and earnings growth and the pricing power
34:13
Speaker 8: that it has. And now all of a sudden the
34:16
Speaker 8: issue of pricing might be coming into question. But uh,
34:20
Speaker 8: you know, I think that a lot of people are
34:24
Speaker 8: you know, hopeful that even though pricing comes down potentially
34:30
Speaker 8: with you know, some of the the cheaper competition from China.
34:35
Speaker 8: You're hearing a lot of talk this week about something
34:38
Speaker 8: that probably hadn't been in the markets all that much,
34:40
Speaker 8: the so called Jevins paradox, where you know, increased demand,
34:45
Speaker 8: uh you know for something will you know, come from
34:49
Speaker 8: lower prices. So even though in Vidio may not have
34:53
Speaker 8: the margins that they had, you know, at their peak,
34:56
Speaker 8: you're going to have increased revenue and profits. Just the
35:00
Speaker 8: notion that there's going to be a lot more of
35:01
Speaker 8: these chips being sold because they will, you know, have
35:05
Speaker 8: cheaper competition, and that will drive demand for AI more broadly,
35:10
Speaker 8: maybe not just at the highest level. The companies like
35:14
Speaker 8: Microsoft and Alphabet, you know, the so called hyper scalers
35:19
Speaker 8: of the world.
35:20
Speaker 3: Is there any thought that other companies may end up
35:22
Speaker 3: benefiting from that and that hey, in video has been
35:25
Speaker 3: the kind of the choice because they have the most
35:28
Speaker 3: powerful chips that are specifically dedicated to this.
35:31
Speaker 2: But could other.
35:32
Speaker 3: Companies like an A M D or an Intel even
35:35
Speaker 3: take you know, some market share if it's determined that, hey,
35:38
Speaker 3: you don't necessarily need that type of performance in order
35:42
Speaker 3: to still produce the kinds of models that are you know,
35:46
Speaker 3: now being produced by competitors.
35:48
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think I think it's going to be tough
35:50
Speaker 8: for AMD and Intel barring you know, true technological innovation,
35:55
Speaker 8: because in video is the clear leader. If you're going
36:00
Speaker 8: to be a company that is faced with the decision
36:03
Speaker 8: of I either want best in class or I don't
36:08
Speaker 8: really need to spend as much for the highest quality chips,
36:14
Speaker 8: I'm going to you know, use technology that is uh,
36:18
Speaker 8: you know, a little bit lower you know quality for
36:22
Speaker 8: lack of a better word. Then you might have you know,
36:25
Speaker 8: the deep seats of the world, which obviously are not
36:26
Speaker 8: you know, a chip company per se, but have an
36:29
Speaker 8: AI technology. You know, companies might you know, go either
36:34
Speaker 8: all in or the lowest possible price that they can
36:40
Speaker 8: spend to still be in the AI game. And that
36:43
Speaker 8: could put the middleman companies, if you will, the companies
36:47
Speaker 8: in the middle of the world. You're am DS and
36:49
Speaker 8: Intel's maybe in a tougher spot unless they have enough
36:52
Speaker 8: technological innovation to supplant Nvidia. I don't think a m
36:56
Speaker 8: D and Intel want to be chasing, you know, the
36:59
Speaker 8: low into the market.
37:00
Speaker 7: Per se.
37:02
Speaker 2: Very good.
37:02
Speaker 3: Appreciate the time, Paul, have a great weekend and we
37:06
Speaker 3: will catch up with you soon.
37:07
Speaker 7: Thanks to that. Appreciate it.
37:08
Speaker 3: Guess that is Paul Monica from Baron's talking about in
37:11
Speaker 3: Nvidia gat to talk about.
37:14
Speaker 2: A quick story.
37:15
Speaker 4: The headline is American teens are increasingly misled by fake
37:18
Speaker 4: content online at report shows. And I've got good news
37:22
Speaker 4: and bad news. The bad news is if there were
37:25
Speaker 4: one generation that I would hope would be the best
37:27
Speaker 4: at detecting this and you know, sniffing out the bs,
37:31
Speaker 4: it would be teenagers who spend a lot of time
37:33
Speaker 4: online and on their phones and reading through online content
37:36
Speaker 4: and they are you know, reporting you know, thirty five
37:39
Speaker 4: percent of the teens that they interviewed reported being deceived
37:43
Speaker 4: by fake content. My good news is that I think
37:46
Speaker 4: that this generation of teenagers is going to be incredibly
37:51
Speaker 4: well equipped when they become adults to detect bs online
37:56
Speaker 4: and see through it when the time comes for them
37:58
Speaker 4: to be making adult related decisions, which is gonna be
38:01
Speaker 4: tougher for all of us that who are older, that
38:02
Speaker 4: didn't come up with this type of technology.
38:05
Speaker 2: It's true, it's true. That's what I got.
38:08
Speaker 3: Markets remain mostly up at the dowies slightly slightly down
38:13
Speaker 3: to finish the week.
38:14
Speaker 2: We are done for the week.
38:15
Speaker 3: Hope y'all have a great weekend and Mondays gonna be
38:20
Speaker 3: some tariff talk one way or another. We'll see you
38:22
Speaker 3: then on the Financial Exchange.