Latest / The Muster on Hokonui / The Muster- Sam Grant: Craigs IP
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Sam Grant of Craig's Investment Partners joins us once again. G'day, Sam.
- 0:04Speaker 2: It's probably a song you haven't heard before. No, I
- 0:06Speaker 2: don't think it is, to be fair, Andy.
- 0:29Speaker 1: One step ahead by madness. If you were curious, but nonetheless,
- 0:32Speaker 1: we catch up with the team from Craig's Investment Partners
- 0:36Speaker 1: on a regular basis, straight off the bat. We'll touch
- 0:39Speaker 1: on this very quickly. The GDT, another solid little rise
- 0:42Speaker 1: last night.
- 0:43Speaker 2: Yeah, it was indeed. So, you know, looking good as
- 0:46Speaker 2: we sort of get into the main part of the
- 0:50Speaker 2: dairy season. You know, I think it'll be obviously nice.
- 0:54Speaker 2: for our farmers out there, if we continue that sort
- 0:57Speaker 2: of strong commodity pricing that we've seen last season, I
- 1:01Speaker 2: hope red meat holds up as well this coming season.
- 1:05Speaker 1: 1.2% rise last night, well appreciated. Something that isn't appreciated
- 1:10Speaker 1: though when it rises is regarding interest rates. These are
- 1:14Speaker 1: still starting to go, they're still going one way I suppose.
- 1:18Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, in markets, the sort of
- 1:22Speaker 2: biggest talking point of theme has been sort of AI,
- 1:25Speaker 2: but we have sort of seen a bit of a
- 1:26Speaker 2: shift now to sort of a lot of commentary and
- 1:29Speaker 2: talk around rising interest rates. So I've started to see,
- 1:33Speaker 2: particularly in New Zealand and around the world as well,
- 1:36Speaker 2: is sort of a bit of a push, a bit
- 1:39Speaker 2: more of a push with sort of higher oil inflation
- 1:42Speaker 2: coming back and those inflationary pressures increasing. Coming back to consumers,
- 1:46Speaker 2: you know, we're seeing it in oil prices at the moment.
- 1:49Speaker 2: And then, as a result, we've seen monetary policy around
- 1:53Speaker 2: the globe sort of pushing towards higher interest rates and
- 1:56Speaker 2: definitely noticing it here in New Zealand. And I think
- 1:58Speaker 2: the key thing at the moment is the story's kind
- 2:01Speaker 2: of shifted to some, you know, when rates will come
- 2:03Speaker 2: back down to sort of maybe how long they're going
- 2:05Speaker 2: to stay up. So, yeah, it could be here for
- 2:07Speaker 2: a wee bit longer, unfortunately.
- 2:09Speaker 1: Whether you fix or you float, it's the same old question, really,
- 2:12Speaker 1: but how long's a piece of string?
- 2:15Speaker 2: Absolutely, absolutely. And, you know, obviously for a lot of
- 2:19Speaker 2: people it's a pretty major input cost, their sort of
- 2:22Speaker 2: interest payment. So any material change to that does sort
- 2:25Speaker 2: of affect the bottom line.
- 2:27Speaker 1: Now something else as well, you talk about going up,
- 2:29Speaker 1: it's the AI boom. It just keeps going up one
- 2:33Speaker 1: way and just almost stratospheric in some instances.
- 2:38Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's still seen a very strong impact. push
- 2:42Speaker 2: in the sort of AI thematic I think the big
- 2:44Speaker 2: thing for us and what we're seeing is it's not
- 2:47Speaker 2: entirely tied to software companies you know you've particularly when
- 2:52Speaker 2: you're sitting down with clients, you know, those sort of
- 2:54Speaker 2: tech companies are sort of high growth, potentially at the
- 2:57Speaker 2: sort of risk you're in, but what we are finding
- 2:58Speaker 2: and what you can find is there's a lot of
- 3:00Speaker 2: potential to sort of get exposure to AI thematic throughout
- 3:03Speaker 2: the supply chain. So whether it's in things like construction,
- 3:06Speaker 2: if you kind of think of like the data centre build-out,
- 3:09Speaker 2: all the sort of resources that need to go into
- 3:11Speaker 2: that and the sort of companies or industries that are
- 3:14Speaker 2: affected by that as well as just the whole sort
- 3:16Speaker 2: of supply chain network effectively. So... Yeah, so when you
- 3:20Speaker 2: sort of think of the AI investment and AI thematic,
- 3:23Speaker 2: there's a lot more to it than just software companies effectively,
- 3:26Speaker 2: or tech companies.
- 3:27Speaker 1: Is there that big a correlation between AI investment and
- 3:30Speaker 1: supply chains?
- 3:32Speaker 2: Yeah, to a point, not to the same degree as
- 3:34Speaker 2: you'd find in sort of things that are a lot
- 3:36Speaker 2: more commoditised, like your dairy and your red meat and
- 3:39Speaker 2: your fuel, but yeah, effectively probably more so in sort
- 3:44Speaker 2: of the infrastructure build-out. So, you know, obviously having to
- 3:47Speaker 2: get resource and supplies with data centers are being built. Yes,
- 3:50Speaker 2: we're very reliant on supply chains.
- 3:52Speaker 1: The election cycle's kicked off, the first of the leaders'
- 3:55Speaker 1: debate last night, but we're not talking about that today.
- 3:59Speaker 1: It's all about the uncertainty around New Zealand at the moment. Now,
- 4:02Speaker 1: it's probably not a correlation there, but the way the
- 4:05Speaker 1: Kiwi dollar just seems to be getting weaker by the day.
- 4:08Speaker 1: Does this all stem back to our uncertainty with politics?
- 4:11Speaker 1: Is there a correlation?
- 4:13Speaker 2: It'll be a plain part, but from an international perspective...
- 4:20Speaker 2: you tend to see a bit of a sell-off in
- 4:22Speaker 2: the New Zealand dollar when there's a bit of volatility. So, yeah,
- 4:26Speaker 2: I think with sort of US elections and what the
- 4:30Speaker 2: sort of scope is going to be there in the
- 4:32Speaker 2: US is probably having just as much an impact as given,
- 4:38Speaker 2: you know, there isn't, polls aren't clear which way things
- 4:41Speaker 2: are going to end up. It would be a little
- 4:42Speaker 2: bit of that. And I suppose there's always the risk
- 4:44Speaker 2: of what the final government would look like. You know,
- 4:47Speaker 2: minor parties are, polling quite well comparatively and sort of
- 4:53Speaker 2: the two major parties of National Labour sort of arguably
- 4:56Speaker 2: combined sort of polling quite low historically so you're probably
- 4:59Speaker 2: looking at a coalition government again with at least three
- 5:03Speaker 2: parties potentially it could be four in some cases.
- 5:06Speaker 1: Tom Shallard making the observation a couple of weeks ago
- 5:10Speaker 1: that an OCR raise is on the cards just prior
- 5:12Speaker 1: to the elections so monetary policy comes into it a
- 5:15Speaker 1: bit more too.
- 5:17Speaker 2: Absolutely, yeah. And what we do tend to find is
- 5:19Speaker 2: things like interest rates and monetary policy have a much
- 5:22Speaker 2: stronger impact on markets than election results. Markets do tend
- 5:26Speaker 2: to look through elections quite a bit, or at least
- 5:29Speaker 2: the election result. Companies tend to have a much longer
- 5:33Speaker 2: view than three years.
- 5:35Speaker 1: Well, you wait with interest or abate of breath over
- 5:38Speaker 1: the next four to six weeks, Sam. Now, Craig's Investment Partners,
- 5:41Speaker 1: how do people get in touch?
- 5:44Speaker 2: Yeah, so either give us a call on 209-0153 or
- 5:48Speaker 2: come visit us at 10X Street opposite New World.
- 5:52Speaker 1: Good on you, Sam. Always good to catch up.
- 5:54Speaker 2: Right. Peace out, Andy.
- 5:58Speaker 1: Sam Grant of Craig's Investment Partners based here in Gore,
- 6:01Speaker 1: opposite New World. You're listening to The Muster. Up next,
- 6:06Speaker 1: it is Don Morrison farming at Willowbank.