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Bullish on Stocks, Bearish on the Economy — The Inevitable Collision · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: But ubs raising the target on the S and P
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: and yeah, futures, it looks like it's at an all
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: time high right now. Trump's laying out a thirty day
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: plan to end the war in Iran and just been
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: dispute about that from Iran, saying that they you know,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: they haven't agreed to fully everything.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: You know, it's always kind of back and forth.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: They even wanted the reports came that they told Iran
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: to just don't say anything publicly, like to anything that
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: he says publicly, because anything that he says publicly is
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: just propaganda for the American public. Don't worry about it,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: like don't, don't, don't even worry about it. And then
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: you know, we'll talk about the Abraham McCords. He kind
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: of snuck that in there. He's on a conference call.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: What's out already be UAE guitar Turkey, and they said,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: like he was. He said that that's part of the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: agreement that everybody has to agree to, the Abraham Accords.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: And he said when he said that, they caught everybody
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: off guard. Nobody spoke and he had to actually had
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: to make a joke to get them to laugh. He
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: was like, you know, are you still on the line
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: if you don't know about the Abraham Accords as a
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: whole other conversation. But there's a lot going on right now.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: But he's pushing that the war is over, and that
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: has the stock market up at all time high right now.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So where we at with this target, Where we're at
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: with the war allegedly ending stocks going to the moon
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: as a result of that, Where are we at?
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: The war isn't over, I don't.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: I haven't talked to any US Intel, but I've got
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: a couple of war sources that's not over.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: So that part is manipulation.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: But what I will say, due to rise and inflation,
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: global debt to GDP is three hundred and eight percent.
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: The only place you can really put the market is
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: either into a business stocks or tech companies pre IPO,
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: so there has to be capital.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: That is the my end of year target.
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: I know ubs is and I talked about this in
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: the stock club last month, but my end of year
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: target for the ES could go as high as eighty
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: five thirty five. There's no reason to short this market.
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: I know everyone keeps looking for a short. Ben Cross
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: and told us like on stock club call yesterday, everyone
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: keeps looking to recreate Michael Burry's short. But the real trade,
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: and I've said this before, it's not the big short,
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: is to ride the market up endlessly. I have as
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: ended up probably at eighty five thirty five by the
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: end of the year, if not by March of next year,
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: we should hit the target hole for the long term.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: And we not only.
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: That this is the greatest class like these last ten years.
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: These are the greatest class of tech companies we've ever seen.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: Like when you pair in video, AMD, Microsoft, open Ai, Data, Bricks, Anthropic,
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: you can take any other. And I asked been like,
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: have you seen a class with this much quality? No,
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: like one of these companies, if you pourted them back
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: into the early nineteen nineties, they would smash IBM in
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: eighties and nineties. So there isn't there's no benefit. And
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: I said it before, but all the optimists and all
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: the bears make all the money. Like being a pestimist,
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: you may sell books or subscriptions, but in terms of
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: creating real wealth, you have to hope for the long term.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: Eighty five thirty five is my long term target for
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: the SMP.
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I had that said last week. I said seventy
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: nine hundred to eighty one hundred. I think I'm going
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: to lead more toward that eighty one hundred. If you're
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: looking at the futures market, I think the first thing
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: I looked out and see the market was closed today,
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: But the first thing I looked at was where's oil?
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Because that'll tell.
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: Me how we're you know, how we're going to look
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: on tomorrow morning.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Oil.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: I think it was down, got down to ninety dollars
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: a barrow. Yeah that's eighty nine.
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: It's creeping up right here now, say ninety one. But
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: you can see how the markets responded. All the large
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: the nasta's and p the dell are all up on
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: that anticipation, which is which is great news for the
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: companies that we invest in, because when you see prices
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: go down, then you obviously start thinking about consumer spend.
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: Consumer spends look pretty good, even with gas prices going up.
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: I know the average price, and I think off that
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: he says it's now four dollars. Summer months, you start
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: to see more spend and travel, so that that is
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: always good. That means that you know rates potentially, and
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: I know the new feed chick got sworn in Friday.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: Historically, that usually means that there's going to be a
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: down cycle at some point. We haven't seen that yet,
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: but there's some hints that there might be some interest
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: rate cut and there might be some like pressure to
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: do that.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: So we'll see.
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: But sure, Yeah, we're in an unpreceing ated time. I
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: mean just think about five years ago, how many companies
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: had a market cad of a trillion billion?
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah we have thirteen right now, Yeah we.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: Have with Saudi and Aramaco and Apple now, yeah, thirteen.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: Even think about this, like one hundred billion dollar company
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: as isn't.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: Even taken serious anymore.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: Until you get to a quarter of a trillion, no
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: one has mass interest anymore.
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we're thinking like then, we just saw Cerebiss and
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: I think that the evaluation was one hundred and fifty
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: five billion, and they were saying like, oh, it's a
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: small IPO.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: It's a disappointment.
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: Small, like in context to what SpaceX could potentially do
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: at nearly two trillion. We already talked about Anthropic and
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: open AI at one trillion. These companies are ipoing at
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: a trillion, which is going to add to it. Mike
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: cron Is on the CUSP potentially of being the next
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: trillion dollar company. Walmart past it, but there's real revenue.
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: It's an unprecedented time to not be part of this market.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: We talk about one of the business biggest mistakes is
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: not part taking into the market.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what that. Yeah, but that mid term draw
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: down with the new fair chair, I wonder what that's
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: going to. Like you said, he's going to be forced
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: to go in a particular direction. I think that will
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: cause a midsummer turnaround for sure.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Panic in July and August I.
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: Had a phone call about that that was like, well,
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: I'm bullish on the market, and I'm like, you know
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: in midterm years, Like well, why do you say you're bullets?
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: And then you give us information like that, And I'm like,
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: I want to give you the total picture picture, so
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: nothing surprises you. I'm gonna give you all the information
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: that I can possibly give you so that you can
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: have it and you can make informed, precise decisions. That's
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: what it's about, right, Like I can't press the button
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: for you, but I can give you information, and so
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: I want you to know all of that. I don't
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: want Hey, you never told me about midterm elections and
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: how that can potentially affect the market. Well, here it is, right,
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: you never told me about August and September and October
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: and how violtile that can be.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: Well, we're saying.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: It, perceive what caution?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Because Ian, you did bank up something last month with
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: last week when you said in modern history it really
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: has been only three years of a market downturn. That's true,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: for sure, but there was also a flat for ten
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: years in early two thousands. But often, yeah, a lot,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of the reason why it hasn't been a
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: market downturn in ten years is because it's been artificially
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: inflated by an amount of money that's been pumping to
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the economy, which is not sustainable. So that's the global
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: economic issues at play that are bigger than companies. They're bigger,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: They're a bigger program. It's a bigger program that's looking shaky.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So the companies look strong, but the bigger, the bigger
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: program is on very shaky ground.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Right now, Is it gonna make the program hit the printer? Right?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: No, you can't already have already exhausted that option. I
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: don't think you How long can you?
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: Since twenty twenty and to your point.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: You could argue, without that that money printer since COVID,
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: we would have relived that flat decade.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: You think, Hell yeah, with the level of innovation, it
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: would have been worse than two thousand and eight.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: I've always said.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: It would have been worse than great. It would have
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: been worse in the Great Recession.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: Twenty five percent of all capital and all cash ever
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: printed happening.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Between twenty twenty twenty one.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they just put money into into them.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: It's so much stuff.
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: So that's think about this.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: Even in our community, even being a decad millionaire isn't
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: celebrated like how it would have been ten years ago.
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: Oh no, a decad millionaire ten years ago would have
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: been a lifetime generational crown and achievement, especially like if
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: you're in the midwest s or now, if you're a
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: decad millionaire in East Coast or West Coast, that's stimilarly.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: It feels like a million and some change in a
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: smaller city. I've never seen this many people talk about
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: potentially getting to forty and fifty and sixty million dollars
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: and it was even posted earlier today. I think there's
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: like I think they said, it's like seven or eight
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: million people that have a networth higher than nine to
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: thirteen million dollars.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: That's because of the money printer.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. Yeah so and but that that's not sustainable.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: You bearish A no, you can be both. I'm just
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: saying what you were you win?
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: You bullish or bears. I'm bullish on the stock market
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: bears to the economy. Okay, so.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, but but it's going to collide eventually. This the
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: bears on the stock market is going to come. The
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: bears on the economy is going to impact the stock
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: market eventually.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: But even with that, the circular investment into AI and
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: the data center thing we have to talk about to
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: on blackout and how it's affecting water supply, the environment.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, it's a real concern.
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: Even if I know people like sometimes make fun when
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I'm like, hey, I'm in Mexico. I'm studying the ocean,
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: the waves of the ocean. There's more sargasm than ever.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: But even see water temperature has raised four degrees in
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: the last year and a half. For those who don't know,
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: it takes a lot of power to warm up and sea.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: That would have great ramifications. And with the water supply
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: drying up literally and being tainted in the Midwest and Southeast.
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: We're going to have an ecological crisis like something we
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: haven't seen if we don't get this shit in order.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: Marilla fast, what do you think about that?
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: The circular economy idea, right, like we saw obviously Oracle
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: guy head, Microsoft guy head, that story really hasn't changed.
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: But those those stocks have kind of not rebounded all
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: the way back to that all.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: They've stabilized.
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: They've stabilized, but the story really hasn't changed, right, and
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: so it it almost feels like was it over sensationalized?
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: Definitely needed to be called out so that people are
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: aware of it. People sold out of those stocks, but
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: you're starting to see we just talked about Microsoft even
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: in video was a part of that.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're pretty much the the centerpiece of this.
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: But it hasn't been affected the same way as it
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: was let's say, late October early November when we started
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: to hear more more talks about it and people started
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: to unpacked this this quote unquote circular economy.
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: Like any ponzi, it's under sensationalized, alleged, alleged alleged, right,
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: So I'll say for the record, it's good going back
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: to the relationship part that the put protection for a
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: lot of these companies.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Is hefe in DC.
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: I think one of these companies could have had a
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: cataclysmic restructuring if it was not for the relationship there.
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: And I don't think we've seen the last of it.
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: I think some of the companies that have gotten beat
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: up are not favorable with him there. And do I think, well,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: they'll never let us have it like the crash like
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: we did in two thousand and eight. But if you
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: ask anybody in tech that a couple of these companies
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: should not have gone under already, they're they're lying.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: So Intel is fit in there right.
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: The reason why you say Intel, but you let Spirit
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: their lines go right, just in terms of companies.
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: Selection, yeah, yeah, and then having Video invest in Intel.
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: Or if not, then when I go see Jiji, then
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: your busines and in China is going to be restructured
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: and all of it goes to Wahwei. My grandmother used
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: to tell me all the time in politics, enemies make
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: strange bedfellows sometimes, like you're gonna have to make some
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: deals and have some concessions with some people you don't
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: want to do business with if you want to stay alive.
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: And video and the Intel situation was a prime example.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: There's a prime example. That's a fact shot shot. Everybody
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: that came over from the next game, they are about
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: twenty five.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: So that's over. It's over this wet sweet shot.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Everybody you know has made a decision to invest in
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: their education. You know, we love the Knicks, support them,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: but man, you guys marked the Monday's mass. It's you,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: guys versus the world. Because if you are you are
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the dedicated. You are dedicated few. It's like the Marines.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: You only need a few good men men and women,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: and you guys are a few good men and women
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: that's out there'll appreciate you all. That's changing the world.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: You've chosen education over entertainment and that's something in this
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: world that's extremely difficult and that's very rare.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: So who those to you guys?
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: And you brought up Wawei, and I think that's a
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: company that people should know because of the innovation and
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: the importance of China and right, so, there was a
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: new article that came out in the Journal. I think
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: CNBC covered it as well as wild Ways now trying
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: to create semiconductors that will go inside of compute and
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: will go inside of phones, which is a direct competitor
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: to Apple. Apple for sure, Apple for sure, but also
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: in Vidio and somewhat. And this is a lot of
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: time when you have to read and actually take contextual
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: clues out. So yeah, potentially it could be a competitor.
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: But they said they won't be online until twenty thirty one,
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: so I mean take that. But innovation's happening right This
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: is a long term game. This is not like, hey,
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: who wins the next three years, It's who wins the
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: race twenty thirty forty years out. And so the fact
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: that they're innovating at this level right now and that
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: they have again in Nvidio is the leader now, but
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: who knows what that looks like in five years in
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: terms of that market, which is why I'm sure he's
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: trying to get back into that market.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and Huawei phones are better and tablets are better
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: than Apple tablets and phones right now.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: Their technology is sick, sick, bro, Yeah, we would What
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: Country was that we were in, I think it was Senegal,
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: and I mean Huawei they had a display at this
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: economic form and the tech, I mean, the technology that
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: they're displaying is just like, yeah, is ridiculous.