Latest / Stephanomics / Voternomics: "Bleeding to Death" Tory Party Calls July Election. Why Now?

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Voternomics: "Bleeding to Death" Tory Party Calls July Election. Why Now? · Stephanomics

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Vota Nomics, where politics and markets collide, and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: especially today it is Wednesday, the twenty second and May,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: and we've just in the last few minutes heard Prime
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Minister Richie Sunak announced in the pouring rain a general
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: election will be held in the UK, haven't we Adrian,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: haven't we Stephanie.
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  Speaker 2: So we have gathered gathered, thanks Kenny, to talk about
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: it briefly before also recording this week's regular episode. But
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: we felt like there were things to say, There.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Were and wasn't that tricky for him in the pouring rain?
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  Speaker 1: With things can only get better blurring for I'd say
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  Speaker 1: eighty percent of it right.
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  Speaker 2: Which as you and you're sitting there as like former
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  Speaker 2: broadcast hands, you sit there thinking, okay, so it's very
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  Speaker 2: hard to have a clip on the main news. And yes,
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  Speaker 2: he's looking more and more wet, especially when he turned round.
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  Speaker 2: And I guess the more sort of fundamental thing is,
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  Speaker 2: which I'm sure everybody will you know, it's hard to
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  Speaker 2: resist the sort of metaphor that this has been a
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  Speaker 2: prime minister who has had to just carry on as
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  Speaker 2: quite a lot of things were falling about, you know,
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  Speaker 2: quite a lot of noises off but also just many
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  Speaker 2: things kind of falling apart behind him. I mean even
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  Speaker 2: that song. When you look back to ninety seven, you know,
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  Speaker 2: ninety seven the idea that things could only get better
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  Speaker 2: was much less resonant than now. Funnily enough, because you
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  Speaker 2: actually had quite a strong economy that the labor then inherited.
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  Speaker 2: Now labor do have this quite strong line which I
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  Speaker 2: think resonates with voters, which is nothing's got better since
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  Speaker 2: twenty ten. Or name a public service that has actually
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  Speaker 2: got better. Now, that's of course also you know COVID,
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  Speaker 2: many many things have combined to that is not just
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  Speaker 2: down to the Conservatives, but it is, it is quite resonant.
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  Speaker 3: I think that's true to some extent. But in nineteen
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  Speaker 3: ninety seven, labor had a vision of the future. They
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  Speaker 3: had a story to tell about the future, and Kirs
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  Speaker 3: Starmer has not told a story about the future. What
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  Speaker 3: we're going to have is an election which is really
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  Speaker 3: about fourteen years of Tory miss. It will be an
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  Speaker 3: election about the Tories in which I think people will
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  Speaker 3: vote against. The tour is not in favor of Starmer.
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  Speaker 3: They don't know what someone but what labor.
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  Speaker 2: But even things can only get better? Is a very
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  Speaker 2: negative message, right. That's why it feels resident because it's like, oh,
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  Speaker 2: there has to be something better than this, not really
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  Speaker 2: knowing what the something.
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  Speaker 3: Is in that sense. But they did have we did
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  Speaker 3: have new Labor and it did have an agenda. And
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  Speaker 3: we don't have new Labor. We have a Labor party
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  Speaker 3: that's better than Corbyn's party.
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  Speaker 1: So just to be for a second, I mean they
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  Speaker 1: will be. They will be inside number ten right now.
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  Speaker 1: I would imagine, thinking back to when I was in
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  Speaker 1: the Treasury with issue, they will be furious that it
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  Speaker 1: is as you alluded to at the top of their stuff.
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  Speaker 1: It's really you know, you do these moments outside to
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  Speaker 1: get the clip for the news at the six o'clock news,
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  Speaker 1: which is what in sort of forty minutes whenever, and
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  Speaker 1: then the ten o'clock news, which will be watched by
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  Speaker 1: many millions of people. So firstly, you're trying to set
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  Speaker 1: your narrative immediately, and I don't I really There was
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  Speaker 1: a long period at the top of Rishi's un next
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  Speaker 1: comments that were about COVID, which we can discuss in
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  Speaker 1: a second, because I thought that was an interesting strategic
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  Speaker 1: choice to go in on that at rather than inflation,
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  Speaker 1: for instance, which is today's today's peg for one assumes
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  Speaker 1: this decision. So firstly, there's very there's not a clip,
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  Speaker 1: so it's very difficult I think for them to be
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  Speaker 1: able to set what they would like the narrative to be.
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  Speaker 2: Although, funnily enough, without dwelling too much on it, the
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  Speaker 2: new that the music actually faded just as he turned
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  Speaker 2: to the challenge, making a similar point to Adrian on labor.
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  Speaker 2: So in that sense, you know, maybe that will be
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  Speaker 2: the clip of him sort of throwing down the gortlant
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  Speaker 2: to to labor. And but you know, I think you're right.
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  Speaker 3: There's no good clip.
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  Speaker 2: I don't.
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  Speaker 3: It all seems to be all too apt about this,
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  Speaker 3: this this government and Snaxt period in power. It's just
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  Speaker 3: been a series of problems.
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  Speaker 2: Should we dwell a little bit on this time in question?
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  Speaker 2: Because until quite recently, although there'd been a lot of
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  Speaker 2: sort of fluttering in the sidelines about a possible summer election,
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  Speaker 2: which hadn't completely died, there was you know, usually the
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  Speaker 2: conversation would end with, you know, MP's one to have
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  Speaker 2: six more months or have you know, several months more
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  Speaker 2: of pay and looking for jobs, even if they think
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  Speaker 2: they're on the way out. You don't give up as
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  Speaker 2: a government because that just feels like you're walking away
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  Speaker 2: from the top job, and that you, you know, the
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  Speaker 2: lack of leadership we had, you'll be able to do
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  Speaker 2: an autumn statement which gives more tax cuts. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: all those arguments seem to have just disappeared. I mean
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  Speaker 2: we get into the economics, because I think there probably
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  Speaker 2: wouldn't have been any text cuts. Maybe that is. I
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  Speaker 2: do think there's some big economic reasons. But let's just
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  Speaker 2: think about why why do you think it's now?
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  Speaker 1: Because I think, as I've written in the read out,
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  Speaker 1: I think that politics doesn't often give you clear moments
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  Speaker 1: where you can say tick. And I think that inflation
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  Speaker 1: being down to two percent is it has a two
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  Speaker 1: at the front. It has a two at the front,
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  Speaker 1: and it was expected to be two point one and
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  Speaker 1: it's now two point three, and that is higher than expected,
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  Speaker 1: and it will have an impact on whether or not
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  Speaker 1: there's a rate cut in June, which i'd you know,
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  Speaker 1: I think the number today suggests won't now happen. But
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  Speaker 1: even if the number had been one point nine, the
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  Speaker 1: bank would have been quite norvius about doing it. Because
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  Speaker 1: they didn't know when they did.
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  Speaker 2: But you are right, then it's low twos kind of
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  Speaker 2: that feels like jobs.
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  Speaker 3: So I think it's this any compelling reason for doing
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  Speaker 3: it now, I really don't. I feel that it's a
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  Speaker 3: feeling that they've just run out of road, that they've
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  Speaker 3: been bleeding to death in public and why go.
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  Speaker 1: But you can flip that, which is they want a mandate,
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  Speaker 1: and that is what you've just said. But it's the
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  Speaker 1: other way of saying it, which is we need to
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  Speaker 1: get Richie Sunak needs to go to the public and
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  Speaker 1: get them to say, yeah, we'll have a bit more
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  Speaker 1: of you thanks, so he can then because one of
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  Speaker 1: the biggest problems for him has been the sort of
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  Speaker 1: you know, unruly party, and he needs to have his
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  Speaker 1: own mandate, not Brois Johnson's mandate.
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  Speaker 3: Not They're not going to get a mandate. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: I think the economists, the economists seat predicted pole, whether
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  Speaker 3: it is sliding pole that they do all the time,
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  Speaker 3: gives the Tories a one percent chance of winning. He's
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  Speaker 3: just annoyed the entire journal stick community and the entire
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: MP community political community by by forcing them to reschedule
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  Speaker 3: their holders, including me what.
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  Speaker 1: You were doing.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think you could get quite quite a lot,
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  Speaker 2: get quite a lot of But.
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  Speaker 1: Those core cohorts were not they weren't Besies, right, So
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  Speaker 1: it's not it's not that you know, suddenly you've lost
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  Speaker 1: people that were, you know, cheerleaders. So I think, you know,
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  Speaker 1: in politics, you don't get very many clear.
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  Speaker 3: Moment more staunching the flow of blood. Every week you
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: were getting a Tory defecting to the other time. Every
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: time week you were getting some Tory doing some weird
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  Speaker 3: thing about photographing their genitals and and and and publicizing.
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  Speaker 3: Every week there was just some sort of terrible disaster.
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  Speaker 3: I think you just had an.
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  Speaker 2: I think and there is there's there's an economic piece
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  Speaker 2: of this. It's partly a legras point that you've now
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  Speaker 2: got You've had an unexpectedly strong growth number. You've got
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  Speaker 2: inflation looking like it's kind of under control, even if
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  Speaker 2: the interest rate picture is not clear. I think fundamentally,
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  Speaker 2: you know, we saw it earlier this week, there's another
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  Speaker 2: ten billion at least going out the door. Finally, with
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  Speaker 2: the compensation for the victims of the contaminated blood scandle.
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  Speaker 2: And there's also an increasing feeling when you look at
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  Speaker 2: the underlying numbers from the last few years. You know,
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  Speaker 2: even the very tight fiscal forecast that Jeremy Hunt would
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  Speaker 2: have been playing with in trying to find a bit
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  Speaker 2: more money for tax cuts rely on actually what is
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  Speaker 2: considered to be a very optimistic forecast for UK growth
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  Speaker 2: based on a rather optimistic forecast for productivity growth. You know,
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  Speaker 2: output per head in the UK is expected in these
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  Speaker 2: official forecasts to grow twice as fast as it has
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  Speaker 2: in the last ten years, and if it doesn't, there'll
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  Speaker 2: be another hole of forty billion pounds in the budget
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  Speaker 2: which might yet might easily get revealed in the next
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  Speaker 2: quote unquote fiscal event, because the Office for Budget Responsibility
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  Speaker 2: might decide, look, we've got to follow the Bank of
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  Speaker 2: England many other city forecast is in sort of accepting
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  Speaker 2: the reality of UK growth.
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  Speaker 3: I think that ten billion number is quite significant. Is
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  Speaker 3: a lot of money suddenly to lose. So I don't
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  Speaker 3: think there's anything good that was going to happen to them,
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  Speaker 3: and probably a lot of bad things they're going to
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  Speaker 3: happen to them over the summer.
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  Speaker 2: Also, I was looking at the date and July fourth,
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  Speaker 2: one would hope that England will have got through at
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  Speaker 2: the group stages and the first round of the first round.
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  Speaker 2: After that, of the years, they won't have lost yet
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  Speaker 2: because they won't have gone to the quarterfinals finals, and
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  Speaker 2: he'll be able to go to the Games.
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  Speaker 3: Having been quite grumpy already, i'd like to be grumpy
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  Speaker 3: again about Rish's announcement, which I thought was wrong what
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  Speaker 3: he says said. He started off by saying, we live
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  Speaker 3: in a dangerous world and you need somebody you can
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  Speaker 3: rely on, somebody who will defend us against the Russians
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  Speaker 3: and the Chinese and the Iranians and all of these people.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that business of playing politics with the
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  Speaker 3: issue of defense is very, very questionable. I think that
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  Speaker 3: the Labor Party, it's not Corbyn's Labor Party, it's a
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  Speaker 3: pretty sensible labor party. And I think these defense issues
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  Speaker 3: are so important that we should be agreeing upon them,
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  Speaker 3: and we should collectively be agreeing to be spending a
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  Speaker 3: very significant amount of you know, three percent rather than
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  Speaker 3: two point five percent, not rolling around in mud about them.
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  Speaker 3: So I didn't like that. I can see that his
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  Speaker 3: choice is limited, but I don't think he should be
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  Speaker 3: trying to present the label.
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  Speaker 2: Also, you end up looking at quite a contrast with
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  Speaker 2: Keir Starmer as well, because he's been made such a point,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: certainly in the Middle East. He's made such a point
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  Speaker 2: of being, you know, at cost to his unity, and
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  Speaker 2: his party has made a point of unity with the
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: government in order to show a sort of statesman.
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  Speaker 3: As the Labor Party keeps saying, when they were in
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  Speaker 3: power in twenty ten we spent two point five five
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  Speaker 3: we're now spending lesson.
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  Speaker 2: I think, to be fair, I think it started in
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  Speaker 2: ninety seven, it started at three, so it went down
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  Speaker 2: hard to.
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  Speaker 1: The cathartic point that now we can have these or
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: rather they the leaders will do TV debate after TV debate,
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  Speaker 1: and they can thrash exactly these arguments out, whereas before
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: there's been this phony war where it's been somebody making
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a speech about the topic they want to make it,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: you know, asserting something that you know you're uncomfortable with
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  Speaker 1: or whatever. But actually now Starmer will get the opportunity
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  Speaker 1: to respond directly and and and the electorate will hear
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  Speaker 1: and be able to make their own mind up. And
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  Speaker 1: that personally, I find that is there's a sort of
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  Speaker 1: breath of fresh air coming.
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  Speaker 3: I know, I think that's that that that's a reasonable point.
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  Speaker 3: But I don't think that the the the week on
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  Speaker 3: defense point necessarily sticks. I am and I'm still uncomfortable
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: about about politicizing what all to be a sort of
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: national effort to to deal with these unprecedented threats from
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: from from from Russia and Jina and Iran all at
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  Speaker 3: the same time.
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  Speaker 2: I think, I mean, it is interesting that a number
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: of people have responded, even on the left, you know,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: who've probably wanted to have an election, but have now
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: sort of said, oh, this just shows terrible, you know,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: failure of leadership that he's given up, which I think
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: you can't have it both ways. I think there's an interpretation.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that this has driven him, but there's
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: an interpretation that says this is better for the country.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: You know, if you look at how much the civil
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: service everybody was parading, was not just you know, by
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: the prospect of a new administration, but also the sheer
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: uncertainty of the date. And I found myself thinking, as
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: when I was watching Prime Ministers questions earlier today and
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: he was asked about the rumors, and I'd have to say,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: at that time I thought it was fairly unlikely that
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: we'd have an election. I wasn't necessarily believing it, but
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: I just wanted someone to ask him, what is the country,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: you know, what is the benefit to the country of
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: having these several months more uncertainty of whatever the result,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: uncertainty about the date, with no one able to plan policy,
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: no one able to plan things. And I think, you know,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: it's possible that that may have you know, that may
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: have been one of the things because you can't there's
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: no statesmanlike reason for holding out, and certainly and certainly
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: for keeping it uncertain, you know, for not saying you
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: could say the debate dates November fifth, and there's actually
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: quite a lot of benefit from stating a date, but
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: it does it just used to have policies too, to
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: be to be sort of holding everyone in suspense.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: What do we think about the possible results, And do
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: we think that that it really matters that we were
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: we're likely to change government?
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  Speaker 1: I think I think if you are as you are, Adrian,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: assuming the Conservatives lose, the question of what degree they
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: lose to obviously is relevant to firstly who next, but
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: not just and who next is determined by the type
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: of seats that are left. And then there is the
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: one percent chance, as you say earlier, one percent who
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: says the economist, And I think John Curtis has said
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: one percent as well. The John Cursi is the very
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: famous sophologist. So if so, I think it matters in
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: terms of what next with the Conservative Party, I would
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: also say, though you'll both laugh at me and chuck
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: me out the ediit sweet shortly. While things happen in
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: election campaigns. We've we've all covered enough. Elections matter and
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: they really matter, and the TV debut debates will matter,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and I remember very vividly covering the TV debate where
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: David Cameron lost it and Nick Clegg had played a
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: blinder and it really affected the election results. So I
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: think we all know that things can happen that are
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that are not predictable right now. But equally on your
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: central question, the sort of does the result matter? It
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: matters to what happens to the Conservative Party next.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: It matters, but what sort of labor party. Let's assume
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: that we get a labor victory, what sort of labor
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: party are we going to have? Remember that it wasn't
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: that long ago that this was a semi Marxist Party
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: twenty nineteen in the last election. What's happened to the
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Labor Party since then?
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I mean we have seen clearly Keir Starmer get elected
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: in a party that was still very corbonite and obviously
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: that's allowed. You know, it's some of the things that
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: he said he would do in order to get elected
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: in that election, you know, get thrown back at him
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: by the Prime Minister repeatedly. He has pulled it as
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: far as you can back to in this day and age,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: to a much more blair eyed party, including some key
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: individuals coming back who have experience of the Blair era.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: But you know, we all know it's a different world
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: and it is. You know, everything's changed, including leaving the EU,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: but the economics have fundamentally changed for this country and
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: arguably more broadly in terms of how one expects the
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: global economy to proceed.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: That was a snap podcast for you from the Votonomics team.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. On Friday, we're going to bring
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: you a conversation with Taiwan's former Digital Minister, Audrey Tang.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: This episode was hosted by me alegra Stratton, Adrian Woodridge
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and Stephanie Flanders. It was produced by Samasadi with help
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: from Chris Martlou and Julia Mann's editorial direction from Victoria Wakeley.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Sand designed by Moses and Brendan. Francis Newnham is our
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: executive producer. Sage Bowman is Head of Podcasts. H