Latest / Pod Save America / How Broke and Desperate Is Donald Trump?

Transcript

How Broke and Desperate Is Donald Trump? · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's pod... Joe Biden makes another big push on
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: climate and student loans. Democrats try to keep voters of
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: color from defecting to Trump. And later, strict scrutiny's Leah
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Lippman stops by to catch us up on all the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Trump legal developments, as well as the border war between
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Texas and the federal government. But first, Donald Trump's first
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: full week as the presumptive Republican nominee has not gone
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: as well as you'd think for the famously disciplined political savant.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And you don't have to take our word for it.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: A senior Trump advisor told the staff it had been
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: a bad press week for the campaign. This is according
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to Politico. Since clinching the nomination, Trump has floated cuts
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: to Social Security and Medicare, teased a national abortion ban,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: promised to pardon violent insurrectionists, who he now salutes at
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: his rallies, said that some immigrants, quote, aren't people, and
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: claimed that any Jewish person who votes for Democrats, quote,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: hates their religion. He also hasn't yet won over Nikki
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Haley's voters, as evidenced in this week's primaries by the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: nearly 20% of the votes she got without even being
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: in the race. And Trump's got some cash issues. We
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: found out this week that his campaign in the RNC
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: raised less than half of what Biden and the DNC
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: did last quarter. And his super PAC has now spent
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: more than $ 50 million on his legal fees without much
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: to show for it because Trump is currently scrambling to
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: find someone, anyone, who will help him out with the
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: $ 464 million bond he has to put up for the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: New York civil fraud case judgment. He doesn't have the cash,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: can't find an underwriter, doesn't want to sell his assets,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and is reportedly worried about the political perception of declaring bankruptcy.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So where will he get the money? Here's one of
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: his lawyers on Fox.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Is there any effort on the part of your team
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: to secure this money through another country, Saudi Arabia or Russia,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: as Joy Behar seems to think?
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: Well, there's rules and regulations that are public.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I can't speak about strategy that requires certain things, and
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: we have to follow those rules.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Like I said, this is manifest injustice.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Props to Joy Behar for getting that out there.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Noted investigative reporter Joy Behar. The Woodward Bernstein generation. It's working.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: They're good questions to ask, I'll be honest with you.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I know they are. I know Leo will break down
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the legal issues involved here, but from a political standpoint,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: it certainly doesn't seem ideal to have a president who's
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: desperate for cash wherever he can find it. Do you
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: think Trump is right to be as worried as he
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: seems about this bond?
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he should be quite worried for a
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: whole host of reasons. Now, like his attorney who was
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: just on Fox, I also don't know the rules and
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: regulations about taking money from foreign entities. But if you
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: were to do so, that would seem quite bad politically, right?
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: If you are in hock to Saudi Arabia or a
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Russian oligarch or something like that, that seems quite bad politically.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Being in hock to a Wall Street bank or a
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: giant insurance company also seems quite bad, right? Because one
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: of Trump's bullshit appeals to some segment of voters is
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: his idea that because he's this wealthy man, special interests
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: don't own him, right? He lied repeatedly in 2016 about
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: how he was going to fund his own campaign.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I can't be bought. I can't be bought. I'm not
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: going to owe anyone anything. And once I'm in office,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I don't need to repay any donors with favors.
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I can't be bought, but I can lease all of
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: my possessions to one entity to keep me out of prison, basically.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: And then filing bankruptcy would be a disaster for him
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: politically because His brand is successful business person, right? I mean,
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: that's bullshit too. His true brand is reality TV host.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: But this idea that he is a successful business person
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: who understands the economy, all of that has the potential
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: to collapse if he has to file for bankruptcy six
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: months before the election. So all of this is very
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: bad for him and is clearly impacting his conduct on
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: the campaign trail because he is acting like the old
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: school Trump lunatic that he was before.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's a very good point you make about
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: sort of his brand and some of his political appeal
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: coming from seeming rich and successful. That's also where part
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: of his perception of strength comes from. And if he's
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: broke and desperate, he looks pretty weak. The Washington Post
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: ran a story about how Trump doesn't want to declare bankruptcy.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: And one of the people close to Trump told the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Post that He'd rather have Letitia James show up with
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the sheriff at 40 Wall Street, which is where Trump
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Tower is, and make a huge stink about it than
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: say he's bankrupt. He thinks about what is going to
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: play politically well for him. Bankruptcy doesn't play well for him,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: but having her try to take his properties might. I
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: don't care if this ends up being politically good or
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: bad for him. I want to see Letitia James show
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: up with the sheriff to seize Trump Tower. That's just
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: my most resistance-y take on this. I'm going to enjoy it.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I think we all deserve it. I just want to
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: see it. Whether it's politically good or bad, whatever. We
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: can figure out that later.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: We have been podcasting about Donald Trump for going on
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: seven millennia now. And one of the ongoing themes, this
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: idea that one day we would see him frog march
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: to prison. We went through multiple impeachments, multiple criminal trials,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: off the late criminal trials. It would be a nice
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: little just amuse-bouche to see her take Trump Tower, take Mar-a-Lago,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: take the golf club, right? Take the plane. Take the plane.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Take whatever. I don't care.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Just repossess the plane. Yes. It would just be, just
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: give us that. We deserve that.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I know you and Leah are probably going to talk
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: about what can save Trump here legally. But it does
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: seem like truth social to the rescue here. That he
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: might end up making a bunch of money from his
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: fake Twitter website because he snowed a bunch of Trump
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: fans into investing. That would be annoying. That's probably what's
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: going to happen. The most annoying thing.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, he has a lot of money from that,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: but it's not all liquid. That's his problem. He obviously
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: has less money than he tells everyone. which is why
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: he was originally convicted of fraud.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Also something that's bad. We forgot that part. You know
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: what else is bad politically? Having been held liable for fraud.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, one would like to hope. Should be.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Time will tell. I don't know. But he also just
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: does not have the money. He would have to sell
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: his properties to do that, which he obviously is unwilling
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: to do. So maybe she'll take them and then sell them.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Leah and I talked about this, and you will hear it,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: but It'd be very amusing if that happens. I'd say that.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: It sure will.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the entire week. Polling is a
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: lagging indicator. So it's still unclear whether all of this
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: shit will move the numbers at all. If you squint
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: at the polling, you might be able to see a
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: little movement, maybe a little, but it's early. But one
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: challenge we've always had with Trump is figuring out which
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: of his political problems to focus on. What do you
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: think after the first full week of Trump as a
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: presumptive Republican nominee?
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: I think that there is a larger story to tell
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: about his chaotic, narcissistic style. We see this in all
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: the polling, that there is this retrospective nostalgia for Trump's presidency.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: People have sort of memory hold what it was felt
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: like to have Donald Trump be president, to live on
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: the edge of our seats with this sort of insanity.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: And so just the fact that he's in the news
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: all the time is good. And all the things he's
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: doing are all about helping himself, right? So that's one.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: So that's the larger story. Like you need a larger narrative.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: What are the, of the crazy shit he said this week,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: what are probably the most politically impactful ones? To me,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: it is pretty obviously putting cuts to social security on
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: the table and proposing a national abortion ban. Those are
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: two issues that go with the core of Social Security
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: goes to the core of his working class base and
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: his working class appeal, as bullshit as even that is.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: And abortion is the thing that drives turnout among Democrats
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: and has helped power our victories in 2022 and 2023.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: And we know from the polling as well that there's
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: so much work to do to convince voters that Donald
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Trump is as far right on abortion as we have
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: been able to convince him that the rest of the
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: Republican Party is. He gets a pass because he is
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: a New York wannabe playboy cad who cheats on his
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: wife and and we've said this before in focus groups,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Sarah Longwell said this once in her focus group podcast,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: that people proactively will bring up the idea when you
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: ask them if Donald Trump is anti-access to abortion or anti-choice,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: they will say, of course, he's not personal. He's probably
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: paid for abortions. And so we have work to do there.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: And he gave Democrats the opportunity to do that. So
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: those are the two things I would hammer.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I do think that your first point about telling the
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: larger story is very important because almost by definition, if
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: we're trying to persuade voters who haven't made up their
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: minds yet. They are at least open to voting for
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Trump or have voted for Trump in the past. And
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I do think, you know, you can, even though we
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: rolled our eyes at it when they said it, but
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: like Chris Christie or Nikki Haley, and they're like, yeah,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: at one point Donald Trump was maybe fighting for you
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: or said that he was going to fight for you
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: or whatever, but he is now running for president solely
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: to save himself and punish every else who disagrees with him.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: He like he will say or do literally anything to
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: keep himself out of jail and keep himself from going broke.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: And he doesn't like anyone who's not for him and
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: anyone who's not for him as a target doesn't like
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Nikki Haley Republicans if they're not for him. doesn't like
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Jewish people if they're Democrats, wants to shoot people who
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: are protesting against him, but pardon people who storm the Capitol.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: It's all about him. And if you don't like him,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: you're screwed and he's going to screw you over. And
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: if you're for him, he still might screw you over
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: because he really only cares about himself.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: He is a weak, insecure loser who is running for
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: president to avoid going to jail to help himself, reward
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: his rich friends, and punish his enemies.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think you've got to just tell a
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: story to people who are like, well, I didn't think
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: the first term was that bad, or I kind of
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: like the economy, or we survived the first term. And
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I think the turn is he is now desperate to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: save himself, and he is even more narcissistic than ever before, right?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Because we're going to have to actually persuade people of
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: this who are still on the fence, and there are
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: a number.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: And narcissistic is a stage direction, not a word we're
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: putting in the act, just to be clear.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes. So Trump's loyal subjects in the House of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Representatives didn't make life any easier for him this week.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: On Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson and most of the Republican
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: caucus released their 2025 agenda. They want to raise the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: retirement age for Social Security, privatize Medicare, get rid of Obamacare,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: cut disability benefits, cut Medicaid, cut children's health insurance, and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: pass a national abortion ban that could also eliminate access
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: to IVF, all to pay for huge tax cuts. to
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: alleged billionaires like Trump, who could really use one right
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: about now. The Biden campaign jumped all over this, as
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: they should, and they said the budget is, quote, Donald
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Trump's Project 2025 roadmap. Obviously, this is an aspirational document.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: How do we make it matter to voters?
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is the agenda if Trump wins. This
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: is not like what the right does sometimes, where they
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: take something that may be unpopular with swing voters that
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: some maybe a progressive member of Congress says, and they
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: just attribute it to Joe Biden. Donald Trump included cuts
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: to Social Security and Medicare in his budget every single
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: year he was president. He says he supports a national
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: abortion ban. He tried to gut many of the programs
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: mentioned here while he was president. There is a roadmap here.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: He has said these things this week. And so I
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: think you just have to attribute it to him. And
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: because this is the reality, because if Donald Trump wins,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: he's almost certainly bringing a Republican House and Republican Senate
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: with him. That's just how these things tend to go
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: in presidential years, especially given what the map is. This year,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: it's hard to see a world where Donald Trump is
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan, or one of those states,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: and Democrats are winning Ohio and Montana. That would be
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: highly unlikely.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The most unlikely situation is that somehow Donald Trump
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: becomes president and Democrats win the Senate. That's just not happening.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: That's not happening. If Donald Trump wins, Republicans control the Senate.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Just get the House possibility that Democrats could still keep
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: the House, but I think it's a lower possibility.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: This is Mike Johnson's plan. This is the plan of
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: whichever person succeeds Mitch McConnell. This is Donald Trump's plan,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: and this is what they will put into place. And
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: we have to tell everyone. That is ultimately what you
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: have to do, is you have to shout from the rooftops.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: And here's the thing, you don't have to convince them today,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: you don't have to convince them tomorrow. You have six
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: months to convince people. And we're all going to have
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: to do it individually because the press is going to
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: be so fucking annoying about this. They're just going to
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: be like, just thrown Pinocchios left and right. Ooh, like, oh,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump once didn't say this. And ooh, it's the
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: Republican Study Committee, not the Freedom Caucus or not the caucus. Like,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: fuck that. This is what is going to happen. And
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: we have to drive it. And we're all going to
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: have to do it ourselves to our friends and family
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: on this podcast through Vote Safe America, all of that.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: I think this is a huge opportunity to help explain
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: to people that the future Trump presidency is to a
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: lot of people right now. something that feels a little
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: more orderly than what they feel right now in lower
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: prices or a return to 2019 prices at the grocery store.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: And we have to explain that it's so much more.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: And here is a perfectly laid out way to do that.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: And I do think I'm actually surprised that, you know,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: it's been a day since this plan was released and
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the Trump campaign has not responded to try to put
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: themselves at arm's length from the plan as they have
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: done with some other extreme right-wing things, because there's a
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: few people running the campaign who might know something about politics.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: But I do think it's an opportunity for reporters, should
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the Trump campaign or Donald Trump himself ever venture out
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: of his right-wing media bubble and take some questions from
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: real reporters to ask him about not only whether he
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: agrees with this plan, but if he says he doesn't
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: agree with some parts of this plan, ask him why
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: most of this plan showed up in his budget every
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: year when he was president of the United States. So
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: that would be something good to ask. So while Trump's
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: been sulking at Mar-a-Lago all week, begging for cash, Joe
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Biden has been barnstorming the country to sell his economic agenda.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: In Nevada, he talked about his plan to build more
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: housing and make it more affordable. In Arizona, he announced
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a grant that will help bring back thousands of microchip
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs to the U.S. The president also relieved student
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: debt for another 77,000 borrowers this week. where now over
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: 4 million Americans helped, had their debt relieved by Joe Biden.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: He also announced a new climate rule to help ensure
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: that two-thirds of all new cars in this country will
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: be hybrid or electric vehicles by 2032. Pretty big deal,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: especially the EPA rule on electric vehicles. Trump and Republicans
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: have been running against EVs, saying they're more expensive and
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: will cost American auto workers their jobs. What do you
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: think about the politics of Biden pushing electric vehicles?
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: I would say I was feeling pretty great about it
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: until I tuned into the Wednesday podcast this morning and
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: I heard Adesu Demisi say that he was worried about it.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: And I figured if Adesu is worried about it, I'm
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: worried about it.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Or I should be worried about it. I did that
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and then I did some Googling on the polls. So, yeah.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing. This is the right– put the
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: politics aside. This is absolutely the right thing to do, 100%.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: You have to do it. Necessary.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Necessary transformational, like we're fucked if we just have gas
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: cars for the next century. We're fucked.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: And I think the good of this outweighs the negative.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: I think being bold on climate is absolutely essential if
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: he's going to reconstitute the coalition of young voters who
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: put him in office the first time. He absolutely has
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: to do this. But there's obviously risk to it. And
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: one thing that Trump is very skilled at is finding
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: a way to make people believe that the country is
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: changing and that change is bad for them. And if
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: you were someone who was in the auto industry, you've
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: worked in the auto industry for a long time, you
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: have survived massive transition, right? Globalization, changes in technology, the
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: auto companies almost went bankrupt in 2009. And this is
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: one more threat, right? And Trump, this is all of
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: what MAGA is about is that a bunch of liberals,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: people in California, elsewhere are changing the country and that
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: change is bad for you. So we're going to have
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: to push back on that. And I think what doing Biden,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: his relationship with an endorsement from the United Auto Workers
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: is a great pushback to that idea. And so I
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: think he can be very aggressive and push forward, but
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: it's an argument he's going to have to win for sure.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: And I'll just talk about some of the polling. So
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Ipsos did a big poll in the fall, I think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: it was in October. So on one side, you get
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: a majority of Americans are supporting government programs to reduce
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: dependence on fossil fuels. Great, right? 54% approve that. That
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: could be higher too. But they also support government incentives
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: to encourage electric vehicle purchases. 52% approve of that. And
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: that gets support among Democrats, 69% and 72% of independents. And, uh,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and even like a plurality of Republicans. So like, if
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: you're going to help people, the government's going to help
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: people be able to afford electric vehicles. They like that,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: but support for the phasing out of new gasoline vehicles
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: is only at 30% and support for government restrictions on
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: the sale of new gasoline vehicles is a 21%. So that's,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: that's the mandate part, which is really tough. That's why
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: they keep calling it a mandate. Now, Of course, it's
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: like a slow phased in process to.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: 2032, right?
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: So that's, you know, what, 12 years from now? Hopefully
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: we still have a country by then. And a planet?
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: And a planet, yeah, a planet would be good too.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: A country, which will go first. So yeah, but that's just,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it's important to know what the politics are before we
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: go into this. Having said that, it is extremely important
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to do and good that Joe Biden has done it.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Because we absolutely need to make this transition if we
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: are to prevent the worst climate catastrophes from happening. But
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: we have work to do on the politics. It's just
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: the case.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: It's almost comforting to know that given the massive political
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: period of transition and chaos that we live in, that
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: it is still true what has been true for 100 years.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: That is the government giving people money to do things, popular.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Popular.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Government telling them not to do something, unpopular. Unpopular.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Or taking away something that people have. No, they don't
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: And I feel like we're backing gas stove hell. The
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: government is not taking your gas car. They're just regulating
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: how many new gas cars can be made.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Drive it till it doesn't drive anymore. Just till it
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: breaks down in the middle of the road. You drive
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: as much as you want.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: You can drive that gas car as fast as that
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: gas car will take you as the oceans are coming
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: after you as the icebergs melt.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: All right. So most polls show Biden struggling with young voters.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Two of their top concerns, along with the war in Gaza,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: are the climate crisis and student loan relief. Do you
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: think these policies that we talked about this week, both
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the EV policy and more student debt relief, do you
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: think this can help Biden with young voters?
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I absolutely do think it can. John, I'm so glad
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: you asked this question because you're not going to believe this.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: But this week on Polar Coaster, the subscriber-exclusive podcast for
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Friends of the Pod that I host, that you could
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: subscribe to by going to crooked.com slash friends. I talked
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: to John Della Volpe, an expert in the youth vote
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: and a pollster, about this very issue. And what he
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: said was really interesting. One of the points that he
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: made is that one of the huge struggles that Biden
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: has is there's a massive knowledge gap with young voters
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: between what they want Biden to do and what Biden
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: has actually done. And that the only way to get
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: those young voters back in the fold is going to
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: be to talk to them from people they trust about
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: what Biden has actually done and what he is planning
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: to do. So I think this is huge. All of
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: these things we've talked about today, the bad stuff about Trump,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the good stuff about Biden, is ammunition to use to
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: try to go make a case, right? These are data
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: points we can use, and these are really important ones,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you said that. And I also think that
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: young activists and organizers can really help here, organizations that
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: do this kind of stuff. As we were preparing for this,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: I read the story in Politico that was in prep.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I ran in a couple of weeks ago, I think
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: in February, about young climate activists, and it talks about
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the Sunrise Movement, And they, you know, a couple months ago,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: they protested at Biden's headquarters, campaign headquarters, because he hasn't
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: yet declared a climate emergency. And they keep saying he's
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: going to lose if he doesn't. And their spokesperson acknowledged
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Politico in the piece that, you know, protests like that
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: could make Biden appear weak and help Trump. But that, quote,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: it's hard to say right now exactly how we'll walk
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: that line. So, first of all, on a climate emergency,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a climate emergency would be Biden using sort of, you know,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you declare a national emergency if you're president for natural
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: disasters or the pandemic or other things. It would basically,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: as I understand it, free up some money in different
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: agencies to pursue more climate resiliency. to sort of stop
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: more oil drilling, to stop more projects, to stop crude
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: oil exports. So you can definitely make a difference. It
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: will certainly not make as much of a difference as
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: any of the steps that Joe Biden has already taken
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: on climate. It would make some difference. But anyway, so
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: they're very upset about that. That's fine. Like, I realize
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: that even though Joe Biden spent his political capital on
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: passing what is objectively the biggest climate bill in history,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: there are going to be climate activists who wish he'd
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: go further. I realize that even though he has now
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: canceled student debt for over 4 million Americans, there's going
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: to be progressives who wish he'd go further. And like,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: that's okay. Keep pushing, keep fighting. But like, we only
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: get the chance to do more if Joe Biden wins.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: And one way to think about it is your vote
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: isn't about grading Joe Biden's presidency. And it's not about
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: punishing or rewarding Joe Biden or Donald Trump. It is
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: about what kind of future you want for yourself. And like,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden was not progressives first choice in 2020. He won.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Progressives kept pushing. And this guy who's been pretty moderate
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: for his entire life, decades in politics, ended up passing
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: some of the most progressive legislation in history. And if
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: he loses, perhaps you'll have proved a point, but you
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: will also have done deep damages to the causes that
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: you profess to care about. And I think that's like
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: really important because A lot of young people and a
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: lot of just voters in general are not paying as
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: close attention as we are to politics. I said a
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: million broken record on this. And they're going to take
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: cues from, as you said, and you talked with John
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: about people that they trust. They're also going to take
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: cues from organizations and activists and volunteers that are out there.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: And so if you are part of these organizations, it
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: is not contradictory at all to criticize Joe Biden, say
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: he needs to do more. And then get out there
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and tell people it is vitally important to the cause
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: of climate change to make sure that Joe Biden and
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: not Donald Trump are president. That's just my thing on that, Dan.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I like this new segment of the pod where you
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: just become the Grandpa Simpson meme of old man yells
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: at clouds.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I wasn't going to. I missed the Politico story. I'm
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: glad that the team put it in prep. Thank you.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: And then I was just reading it last night. I
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: was like, come on.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: Come on.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: And I also know, look, and I know the Sunrise Movement, like,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I follow them on Twitter, and they have, like, very
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: strong feelings about Gaza, and I totally get that, too.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I have strong feelings about Gaza as well. But it's like,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: what you guys want is a president who's going to
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: be forward-leaning on climate and do a lot of work,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: and that's what you got in Joe Biden. Is it enough? No,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: it's not enough. But, like, the way to deal with
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: that is to keep pushing and make sure he's back
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: in office and you can keep pushing him to do more.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. Sorry. I just went
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: on another rant.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: That's great. People love it.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Another goal of Biden's campaign swing when he's out in
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Nevada and Arizona was to shore up support with Latino voters,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: who the polls show he's also struggling with, despite winning
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: 60 percent of Latinos in 2020. On Wednesday's episode, Tommy
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Nadisu talked about the interview where Biden said that Trump, quote,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: despises Latinos. And they also mentioned that his campaign released
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: this ad targeting Latino voters. For our abuelos.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: Insulin that costs $ 35.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Or hundreds.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: That is the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: For women, the freedom to control our own bodies or
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: doctors going to jail for an abortion. This is the
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: difference between Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Only one choice
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: is right.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: And the difference between them is your vote. I'm Joe Biden,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: and I approve this message. So I feel like we'll
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: be talking a lot about the Latino vote between now
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and November. I know that when Tommy and Adisa talked
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: about this yesterday, they made the important point that you
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: have to make at the beginning of any discussion of
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Latino vote, which is that the Latino vote is not
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: at all a monolith. Just like white voters, Latino voters,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: political views depend on where your family's from, where you live,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: how old you are, all that. So with all that said,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: what is your take on both Biden's interview and the ad?
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: and just sort of the general outreach to Latino voters
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: that sort of launched this week?
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: It's obviously essential, right? And we'll get into what some
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: of the polling says about Biden's struggles here or potential
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: struggles here, but you cannot win the presidency without doing
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: well with the Latino vote. There's no margin of error.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: This is the hard part about talking about this election
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: is Youth voters.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: It's true with everything, yeah. Yeah.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Young voters, black voters, Latina voters, women voters, voters named John.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Like any group, you can lose no people, right? So
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: that is true here too. I thought– I've seen some
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: and I've heard some critique of the ad that people
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: maybe thought it was boring, didn't love it. Here's one
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: thing I say because, John, as you know, I also
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: host a very popular YouTube show. Called Political Experts React,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: where we react to campaign ads, yes.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Are you going to do a second organic plug here?
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Wait till I get a message box plug into the
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: section on Latino vote.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Jesus.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Just kidding. But anyway, one of the things, I'm not
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: subscribed to the Positive American YouTube channel, but anywho.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Life is on fraternity leave and you're still doing that.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: You think he's not texting me to plug the shit?
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: So you're tweeting crazy things when you have a baby
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: in your hand, he's just trying to plug cricket stuff.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: All right, anywho. He– one of the things that I
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: think is worth noting on any ad is we all
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: judge them from like a– as if we're Roger Ebert, right?
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Like it's not that interesting. Where are the camera angles
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: and all of this? And just we have to remember
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: always that the campaigns test the living shit out of
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: these ads. And so it obviously works with some group
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: of voters. Otherwise, they don't run it. But I think
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: it goes to a point that Adisu made, which is
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: especially with the Latino vote, simply talking about issues– And
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: what you've actually done and going to do for the
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: country and the community is incredibly important. So it's going
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: to be not as exciting as a Lincoln Project ad
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: about Donald Trump's father not loving him or January 6th.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: It's just like this is blocking and tackling. We've seen
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: it in the polls. It's not just for the Latino community.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: People love the idea of $ 35 insulin, and no one
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: knows that Joe Biden did that. So you've got to
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: tell them, even if it seems boring at the time.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: So I think that's the right approach. I think I
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: like the ad better than the interview, because the interview,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: I think, doesn't get to those issues in the same way.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: But outreach is important, just being out there, showing up.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: And you're not going to win back voters today with
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: one ad and one interview, but you have to keep
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: doing it. So I imagine these ads will be up
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: the whole time. I hope that this sort of public outreach,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: focus on Latino media, continues all the way through the campaign.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: I also think the despise Latino comment... He despises Latinos. Clearly,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said any number of things that are
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: extraordinarily racist and xenophobic in his time. But I do
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: think I would use the opportunity to, if I was
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: asked that question, to say, look, I just don't think
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: that he fights for Latino voters. I think he doesn't
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: have a record when he was in office of fighting
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: for Latino voters. And I don't think he's going to
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: do it now for the following reasons, right? Because I
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: just think if you, again, the only people you're trying
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: to persuade here are people who are like open to
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: voting for Donald Trump or for a third party. And
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: if they are open to it, then just saying, oh, no,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: he despises you is not is not necessarily the most
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: persuasive argument.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, we have been– Donald Trump isn't racist. I
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: don't think that is a question. He says racist things.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: He very clearly holds tremendous racial animus. I mean, he's
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: a bigot across the board. But one thing that we
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: just have to come to terms with as Democrats is
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: we made that case from 2016 to 2020, and he
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: showed dramatic improvement.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: With voters of color.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right. He showed real improvement with voters of color
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: over that period of time. So it's possible that that's
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: not the best argument with the voters– who are open
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: to voting for him. And so I understand why Biden
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: said that, but I think you're going to win them
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: back by more showing what you've done and what you
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: will do and what Donald Trump would do that is
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: bad for your community. It's not just immigration. It is
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: repealing the ACA. In 2012, when Obama did so well
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: with Latino voters, the most important issue with the Latino
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: voters in our polling was not immigration. It was Romney's
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: support for repealing the ACA. So it's going to be
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: that sort of stuff.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: And it's why he talked about housing when he went
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: to Nevada, which because it's true in Nevada, it's true
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: almost everywhere with every demographic group. When you ask them
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: about cost of living and they complain about cost of living,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: they mention housing more than any other issue because it's
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: what people spend the most of their money on. And
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: so when you ask people just when you don't give
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: people a list of issues, but you just say what's
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: on your mind, housing comes up all the time. So
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: for nerds like us, there has been a raging debate recently.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: among pundits and political operatives about just how much Biden
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: and the Democrats have been struggling with voters of color
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: over the last decade. This is based not only on polls,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: but on actual election results, though the results definitely show
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: a smaller shift away from Democrats than the current polls.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: And so this debate ranges from some people saying it
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: could just be a polling issue to others saying we
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: could be in the midst of a full-blown racial realignment.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: And it is true. If the polls... If the polls
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: right now and the crosstabs, demographic groups that we're seeing
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: in the polls, if this is correct, then it probably
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: would be one of the largest racial realignments. Big if.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Big if. But anyway, what do you think? What do
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: you think of this whole debate?
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: This is going to be one of those times where
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: we have to hold two separate but true thoughts in
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: our head at the same time. One is the polls
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: are all over the map, and they're particularly all over
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: the map with Latino voters. They're showing gigantic swings that
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: would be a massive, like you said, historic realignment. We're
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: seeing smaller shifts. So that's point one. So who knows
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: what the polls are going to say? That's point one.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: Point two is even if you just take all the
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: polls and you average them together, they're all kind of
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: showing the same thing, which is that Biden is doing
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: less well with voters of color and Latino voters in
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: particular than he did in 2020. And so whether– the
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: polls are right, the polls are wrong, which polls are right,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: which are wrong, is largely irrelevant in my view from
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the perspective of activists, organizers, campaigns, operatives, because what are
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: we going to do differently? What are we going to
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: do with this debate? Are we just going to say, oh,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: everything's fine, let's do nothing. We're going to have to
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: go get every single one of those voters, whether the
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: polls are right or wrong. And so that's ultimately what
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: I think the Biden campaign is doing. But there we
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: have seen, and the reason why people are so worried
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: about this is Trump made real gains. Those gains mostly
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: held in 2022. We didn't see a snap back to
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: 2016 numbers with Latino voters, but we didn't see it worse,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: but Trump wasn't on the ballot. So what's going to
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: happen this time? And if the polls are correct, especially
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: the higher end polls, like the New York Times-Santa Paula show,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: a dramatic shift, there's no math where Democrats can win
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: elections anytime in the future. You can't do as poorly
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: as we do with white non-college voters and not just
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: crush it with voters of color. And if you're in
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: a Working class voters of color are starting to perform
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: like working class white voters. That's the ballgame. You can't
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: win a national election that way in the electoral college.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: It's just not mathematically possible.
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: If we are a party of college-educated white, black, brown,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Asian voters, that is not a party that will ever
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: win a majority anywhere in this country except for the
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: deepest blue states. because there's just way, way more non-college
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: educated voters than college educated voters in this country. That
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: is just, and not saying that's where, we don't know
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: that's where we're headed. Like we are still getting a good,
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: good chunk of non-college educated voters, especially non-college educated voters
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: of color in terms of the results. Most of the
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: actual election results we have, if you just put the
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: polls aside, show that voters of color who switched from
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Democrat to Republican over the last several election cycles tend
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: to be people who had always held more moderate or
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: conservative views, but were still voting for Democrats based on
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: either a historic attachment to the party or because they
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: thought that the party was more welcoming to voters with
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: more moderate or conservative views. And so some of this
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: is ideological sorting. So if you had a black Democrat
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: who's conservative or a Latino Democrat who's conservative or even
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: more moderate, maybe they voted for Barack Obama. And then
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: as the Democratic Party, as they think they saw the
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party get a little more progressive or a little
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: more like ideologically polarized, and then certainly the Republican Party
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: become more ideologically polarized. They even either started voting Republican
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: or what's happening a lot is some of these voters
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: are saying, I'm not, neither party speaks to me. And
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: this is also why you are not seeing as much
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: attrition among older voters of color, both Latinos and black voters,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: especially like Older black voters are still like these men
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: and women, like strongest demographic group for Democrats. And that
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: has been true the last several election cycles. And that
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: really hasn't changed that much. But younger voters of color,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: especially in younger black voters too, do not have the
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: same attachment to the Democratic Party as the party of
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: civil rights as their parents, grandparents, great-grandparents did. And so
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: that's part of what we might be seeing as well.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: And I also think that there is a, it's like
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: a more of a populist streak among younger voters of
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: all races and voters of color who are just like
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: very anti-establishment, anti-institution, sort of like angry about economic inequality
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: and maybe a lack of attention to economic inequality by
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: politicians of both parties. So there's a lot of different
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: stuff going on here that could be going on. But
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: at least in terms of the election results, you are
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: seeing that some of this is more ideological sorting than
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: it is anything else.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: There's one more piece of this I think is important,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: which is we tend to analyze all voting groups as
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: if they are static from election to election, when a
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: significant portion of the shift from 2016 to 2020 is
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: not so much people who voted for Hillary in 2016
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: voting for Trump in 2020. It is more conservative Latino
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: voters who did not vote in 2016, or maybe even
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: vote in 2012, voting for Trump in 2020. For whatever
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: reason that is, part of its ideological polarization, I mean,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: there have been some theories around COVID, whatever the reason,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: is you're bringing new people out as opposed to moving
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: them from Democrat to Republican, although there is some persuasion
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: happening there. My answer on this is prepare for the worst,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: hope for the best, which is let's just let's operate
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: like we're in the middle of a historic racial realignment,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: invest all the resources and time and energy and intellectual
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: capital we can to stop it from happening. And if
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: it turns out we did all that shit and the
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: polls were just wrong, guess what? Joe Biden still won, right?
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's worth knowing, and I'm sure the
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: campaign is trying to figure this out, and it's good
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: for all of us to know too, is the why.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: To the extent that there is drift and defection, why
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: is it happening? And there also has been evidence that
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Non-white Democrats have more moderate views than white Democrats, especially
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: on some social and cultural issues, which would surprise a
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: lot of people. And I think as we are all
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: out there doing our persuasion and volunteering, knowing why certain people,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: certain voters of different demographic groups are either concerned about
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden or concerned about Donald Trump. Again, their concerns
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: are not necessarily going to line up with your concerns
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: about Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They almost certainly will not.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: They almost certainly will not. Again, by definition. And so
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: knowing exactly what those concerns are will help you try
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to persuade them. And I do
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: think that's why it's important. This debate is important. It's
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: not necessarily as important like, are the polls going to
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: be right or wrong? That doesn't matter as much. But
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: why this is happening, if it indeed is happening, I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: think is very important in terms of how we persuade
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: people come this November.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: Okay. Okay.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: A couple of quick things before we go to break. Well,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: you already did Polar Coaster. Just one quick thing before
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: we go. But anyway, I'll do another Polar Coaster plug.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Go sign up for crooked.com slash friends. I'm listening to
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Dan talk to smart people and have smart conversations about
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the polls. It's great. We are also about to talk
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: to Leah Littman, one of the hosts of Strict Scrutiny.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: And we are thrilled to announce that all the Strict
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Scrutiny co-hosts are doing a special live show in Washington, D.C.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: on June 22nd at the Howard Theater. Head to crooked.com
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: slash events to grab tickets to this show. or see
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: if Pod Save America or Love It or Leave It
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: are coming to your city. When we come back, Leah Lippman.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: John and I are definitely not lawyers, and we didn't
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: take the LSAT like John Lovett, but here to help
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: us understand the latest updates at Trump trials is an
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: actual lawyer and constitutional scholar and, perhaps most importantly, co-host
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: of Crooked's Strict Scrutiny, Leah Littman. Leah, welcome back to
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: the show.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you, John and I were talking about what
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: we're going to do on this show. Obviously, we felt
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: like there was so much legal news. We tried to
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: read the stories. We read them. We tried to understand
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: the stories. We failed. And we said we had to
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: get someone from Strict on this show immediately. So here
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: you are. So you have to help us and our
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: listeners walk through everything that's happening because there's a lot happening.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: And from what I can tell, none of it seems great.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: None of it seems great.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: And also some of what Judge Cannon is doing is
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: truly inexplicable. So there are some things even I cannot explain.
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to ask you to try at least.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: So that's a good place. Let's start with Miami. So
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: in the classified documents case, which as you mentioned is
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: being overseen by a Trump-appointed judge named Eileen Cannon, she
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: has issued an order this week giving the defense and
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: prosecutors two weeks to file submissions that outline proposed jury
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: instructions based on two different scenarios involving the Presidential Records Act.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: This has people seemingly like yourself confused and alarmed. To
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: whatever ability you have, try to explain what is happening
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: here and why people are so alarmed by it.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: Okay, so I'll try to explain what jury instructions are
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: supposed to be and then explain what these are not. Okay,
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: so jury instructions are things judges tell the jury in
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: order to help them understand how the law works so
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: the jury can make their designated decision about what actually
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: happened and whether the defendant is guilty of a crime.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: So a jury instruction might explain– A super complicated crime
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: that contains like 17 elements and tell the jury, you know,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: if you find these three things, you don't have to
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: find this other thing, you know, and things like that.
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: Or it might explain to the jury like who bears
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: the burden of proof on certain defenses or whatnot. Judge
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: Cannon's proposed instructions basically tell the jury, if the president
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: does it, it's not illegal. Like, it just utterly eviscerates
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: the Presidential Records Act and the charges that Jack Smith
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: actually brought here. Because what her jury instructions convey is,
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, again, essentially, like, the president can basically declassify
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: things with his mind. So the jury instructions say... Look,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: you need to define and decide whether something is personal
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: or presidential, but essentially a president's categorization about whether something
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: is personal or presidential is authoritative. And a president can
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: categorize something as personal, you know, after he leaves office
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: and basically doing whatever they want. And that's just not
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: how the law works. And so the concern is the
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: jury instructions tell the jury to basically acquit and they
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: do so without a basis in the law. Okay.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: I have a lot of questions about this. One, even
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: if we were to adopt this completely original, made up
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: from whole cloth interpretation of the Presidential Records Act, once
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: the FBI asked for the stuff and Trump refused to
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: give it to him and got people to lie for him,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: wouldn't that also be a crime no matter what happened here? Like,
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: is he also vulnerable on that?
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: So there's still the additional obstruction charges, and those could
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: come into play. But I think the concern is that
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: if you tell the jury, look, these documents were essentially
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: Trump's to do with what they want, that that could
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: color their assessment of some of the other charges as well,
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: such that even if Judge Cannon didn't essentially direct the
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: jury— fine for the defendant on obstruction, they would be
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: viewing the obstruction charges through the lens of the government
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: had no basis to be asking for these documents anyways,
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: and that might inform their consideration of the other charges.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: And so what happens next? The defense and prosecutors file
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: their competing jury instructions, and then she picks them out
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: of a hat? How does she make a decision? And
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: what happens if she makes the wrong one?
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: Honestly, at this point, her picking a jury instruction out
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: of a hat seems like the best case scenario because,
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: you know, what is going to happen is both sides
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: will file proposed instructions and then she will evaluate their
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: arguments and ask, you know, what is the legally correct,
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: you know, best jury instruction that actually channels the jury's
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: decision-making process to reflect the law as Congress wrote it.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: If she was doing that in good faith, I think
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: she would realize that her proposed scenarios and instructions were
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: pretty far afield from the law. But we don't yet
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: know how she's going to respond when Jack Smith presumably
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: is going to tell her those proposed instructions are completely nonsensical.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: And if she picks the ones made out of whole
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: cloth that don't actually interpret the law correctly– What recourse
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: does Jack Smith have? Can he appeal this?
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: Unfortunately, it's very limited because these are not final judgments
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: in the case. That is, they don't effectively resolve the case,
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: and they're not subject to an immediate or what's called
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: an interlocutory appeal. So, you know, Jack Smith could, if
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: he wanted, seek an extraordinary remedy from the Court of Appeals,
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: a writ of mandamus, you know, And it's possible, right,
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: that a court of appeals would say this is so far,
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: you know, across even a legally plausible border that, you know,
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: we're going to intervene. But it's really tough to get
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: a court of appeals to intervene in a kind of
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: interim stage of a case, you know, with an extraordinary
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: remedy like mandamus. And the 11th Circuit is a pretty
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: conservative court of appeals.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: And I've seen some fears, and this is going to
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: just reveal how dangerously little information I know, that one
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: of the concerns here is that the way she's doing this,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: what could set Judge Cannon up to be in a
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: position because of, and if I get this wrong, we
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: will edit it out of the podcast, but rule 29,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: which would mean that if she were to dismiss the case,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: I think, is this right? After the jury is selected,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: then that is not appealable in federal cases.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: So there are all sorts of procedural maneuvers that I
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: feel like are just ticking time bombs in this case.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: You know, remember, she just made an earlier ruling in
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: which she said she was not actually going to decide
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: whether to dismiss the some of the charges against Donald
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: Trump on the ground that the federal law under which
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: he was being prosecuted was unconstitutionally void for vagueness, essentially
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: potentially deferring a ruling until later in the case. And
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: so there are a bunch of things she could potentially
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: do that would pull the rug out from under the prosecution,
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: delay it more. And again, given everything she has done
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: in this case to date, there's every reason to be
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: concerned that more trouble is in the works.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: Is she, I know this is kind of a harsh
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: thing to say, but is she an inexperienced judge or
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: is she a partisan judge? Does it seem like she
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: is doing Trump's bidding here? Because there are liberal judges,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: conservative judges, and maybe, but- This is not something that's
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: happening on a– this is not on the Federalist Society
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: entry questionnaire, right? This is something that's very specific to
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: helping Donald Trump. So what's your take based on what
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: you've seen?
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: So I should say she is a graduate of the
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: fine law school that I also attended and where I
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: now teach. I cannot say go blue in this context.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: But so I think the answer– I don't know her.
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: I didn't know her. from what I've observed, is probably both, right? Like,
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: she did not have a ton of experience when she
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: was nominated and then confirmed in the lame duck session
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: to be a judge. She has very limited criminal experience now.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: It's been reported that two of her law clerks, you know,
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: quit under what circumstances we don't really know over the
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: last year, although she's fully staffed now. So I think
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: some of it probably is inexperience. But I think it
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: is really hard to say all of it is when
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: she has gone so far over the line, you know,
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: or earlier stages in the case, essentially saying Trump had
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: like a personal interest he could assert in the documents
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: that would prevent the government from actually, you know, conducting
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: an investigation and proceeding forward with the case where she
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: got unanimously reversed by some of the more conservative judges
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: on the 11th Circuit. So I think it's probably both.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: There was some talk when Judge Cannon was first assigned
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: to this case that maybe it would be Jack Smith's
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: move should be to try to get her off the case.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: Is that still an available option to him? Or is that,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: for the same reasons you cited about the circuit court,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: not really a viable course.
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: For him to take?
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: It's not a viable course for him to take. And
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: I think asking would just undermine his own credibility before
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: the 11th Circuit in the event that he tried to
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: make some emergency appeal to them on some other grounds.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: Because here, her The fact that she's made some rulings
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: that have been reversed, even really bad ones, is not
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: a sufficient ground to disqualify a judge.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: It would have to be, like, an actual conflict of interest.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: An actual conflict of interest or her doing something that
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: was pretty close to illustrating explicit evidence of bias. So,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: you know, judges in other cases have been disqualified when
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: they've made, like, discriminatory marks that reveal animus toward, like,
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: one of the litigants, you know, or, you know, one
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: of their characteristics. And she hasn't done that.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's move to... New York state and Donald
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Trump's problem securing money. So as we've talked about on
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: this podcast before is part of the New York state
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: case against, uh, Trump's businesses. He received a $ 454 million fine.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: He has filed a appeal to try to get that,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: to get a reprieve on having to secure a bond
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: by next week. He has said, he said in that,
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: that he's, uh, tried with multiple companies, and it's, quote,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: a practical impossibility for him to do that. Attorney General
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: Letitia James asked the appeals court not to grant Trump
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: that reprieve. What happens now? What happens if he can't
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: find the money?
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: So if he can't find the money, then I think
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: Tish James could start attaching his properties and using that
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: to potentially sacrifice the judgment against him. This is what
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: happens when defendants can't pay. Then you have the state
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: actually seizing their property and selling it in order to
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: raise the money that the defendant owes them. So I
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: think that is a potential next step is Tish James
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: tries to seize control of Trump Tower.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, takes control of it, repossesses it, or just
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: takes some of the money from it? Is she garnishing
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: his wages, or is she repossessing his car to try
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: to bring this down to non-billionaire levels or non-fake billionaire levels?
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: So the way it works is you repo the car,
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: and then you sell the car, and you use what
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: you gain to satisfy the judgment, and any remaining assets
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: would go to the defendant. But there is a world
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: in which he actually does lose ownership of some of
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: his properties.
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: And then I saw, it's always hard to tell with
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: these moves, like what's real and what's not, but that
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: she did something in Westchester County today, which suggested that
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: maybe she's putting herself in a position because he has
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: a golf club in Westchester County. Would that be the
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: next step to begin to move aspects of the case
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: there so that she could go after those properties?
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: Well, so what you do is you essentially file a
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: notice of attachment on certain property, and you would do
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: that in the location of the property. So it's not
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: like she's moving the case from one location to another,
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: but instead asserting, right, I am going to lay a
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: claim to this property in order to satisfy the judgment
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: of the case and doing that in the jurisdiction where
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: the property is actually located.
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: And I think you explained this to John and I
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago, but because our brains are
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Twitter-infected porous mesh or something. Can you explain how the
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: bond works again? And I'm particularly curious about this because
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: there was a clip of one of Trump's attorneys today
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: on Fox News dodging questions about whether he could seek
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: funding from Russia or Saudi Arabia or another foreign entity
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: to secure the bond.
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So in order to get a bond, you have
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: to put up a certain amount of money. Now, as
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: to where he would get that money he would be
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: potentially putting up, I don't know. I think that is
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: a question that Michael Cohen, among other people, has suggested
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: that maybe he would try to approach a foreign country
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: and get some money from them in order to put
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: up money in order to secure a bond. But I
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: don't think we know a lot about what exactly is
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: going on behind the scenes. I think the attorney general
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: has said, She's not totally convinced that he can't get
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: a bond as is. And so we just kind of
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: need to see how it plays out.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: And that's essentially like how a typical defendant would get bail, right?
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: When they put up a percentage and then someone else
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: would take responsibility. Like if he fled to Russia, whoever
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: secured the bond would be on the hook for the rest?
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Or how would that work?
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: So you put up a certain amount of money and
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: then the bond company essentially guarantees that they and you
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: are good for it, such that if you do not
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: do your part, the defendant doesn't do their part, then
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: the bond company, right, is responsible for the amount of money.
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: And it's a way of basically deferring enforcement of the
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: judgment so that if a bond is posted, you know,
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: it basically tells the court, you know, this person could
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: satisfy the judgment. And so, like, they are allowed to
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: continue to litigate whether they have to pay up or not,
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: but they know they're good for the money again. either
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: through them or through some combination of them in the
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: bond company.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: And will we know, let's say he secures a bond,
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: will we know who financed that? Will he have to
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: disclose that publicly?
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Yeah, I just don't know.
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Because that just seems to, if it is a publicly
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: disclosed thing, from a political perspective, it seems to hinder
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: his options, right? It makes it a little more challenging
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: to you know, find a Russian oligarch or the Kingdom
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: of Saudi Arabia to do it, as opposed to, you know,
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: if it were to stay secret, although nothing with Trump
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: stays secret forever.
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, right.
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: Again, like, even if, right, it is formally secret for
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: some time being, it is always possible that people would
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: file requests for public information requests, you know, as to
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: where they got the money. And so that's why, you know,
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: we don't know whether it could become public, even if
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: there is kind of a normal rule under which it wouldn't, otherwise.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: All right, continuing our tour of Trump's legal Troubles. Let's
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: move to Manhattan, where the case for involving the hush
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: money payment back during the 2016 campaign was supposed to start.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: It seems to be delayed because of an issue around discovery.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: Help explain what happened there. And then my understanding today
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: is DA Alvin Bragg said that the documents being requested
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: were mostly not germane so that there's a sense that
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: maybe the trial can move forward. Just help us understand
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: what's going on there. And are we going to get
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: to see Trump at a defendant table sometime soon? Because
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: we've been waiting a while now. Yeah.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: So the documents were disclosed because prosecutors have an obligation
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: to disclose to the defense not only information that inculpates
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: the defendant, but also information that exculpates the defendant, right?
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: It's potentially relevant to their innocence. And included in that
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: category of evidence is evidence that undermines the credibility of
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: any witness that the prosecution intends to call against the defendant.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: So here, obviously, the prosecution is going to call some
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: people who have had some run-ins with the law. And
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: so there is potentially information within the federal prosecutor's office
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: within the Southern District of New York that is relevant
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: to those individuals' credibility. And so I think there were
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: some concerns that among this vast amount of documents that
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: were turned over, there were going to be things that
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: potentially changed the nature of the prosecution's case against the defendant.
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: And again, based on kind of credible people who said
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: they have looked at the thousands of pages of materials and,
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: you know, DA Alvin Bragg. It doesn't seem like that
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: is the case. That is, it doesn't seem like there
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: is anything that the SDNY turned over that really alters
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: the nature of the charges or the nature of the
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: case or the nature of any of the witnesses against
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. And therefore, you know, the case might proceed. Now,
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: of course, the defense is going to say we need
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: more time to look at this. Maybe they think or
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: they will say there were some leads in there that, like,
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: we need to chase down. But it's not clear, you know,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: as to whether the judge will actually force them to
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: go to trial, you know, pretty close to the original
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: date or initially after the 30-day deferral, you know, that
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: DA Bragg gave Trump. So, you know, as to whether
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: we should see it soon.
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: Maybe, but everything that has unfolded in all of these
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: cases has always felt like Lucy and the football, where
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: you think it's going to happen, and then it never does.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: I know, as people who work in content, we're just
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: trying to plan podcasts and things like that, and they
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: keep just moving these things around.
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: Right, this was supposed to be Trump trial season, and
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: instead it's weight on the Supreme Court and Judge Cannon
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: and SDNY season.
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: Not, not, not, which is a lot less fun for
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: everyone and the rule of law generally. So, all right.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Let's end on a palate cleanser. Just the very light
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: subject of the Fifth Circuit and immigration law. So Texas
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: has this law in place. Supreme Court said it couldn't
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: stay in place. The Fifth Circuit did something else. Help
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: explain what the hell is going on. Can Texas start
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: deporting people as if they were the federal government? And
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: if you want to just rant about the Fifth Circuit
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: for a while, feel free. This is a safe space.
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: OK, so we are going to do a deeper dive
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: on this topic because it is so horribly messy. And
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: the Fifth Circuit and the Supreme Court are truly messing
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: with just the enterprise of law as we know it
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: in the process. But the short answer to your question
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: is no, Texas cannot just start deporting people, including people,
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: by the way, who have lawful status under federal immigration law,
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: which is what the Texas law purports to authorize them
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: to do. They cannot begin doing that because the injunction
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: against the Texas law went back into effect after a
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: court of appeals Funnily enough, the Fifth Circuit panel dissolved
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: a stay of that injunction that a previous panel of
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: the Fifth Circuit had put into effect. But basically, the
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: Fifth Circuit had previously suggested that Texas could effectively be
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: immigration law as we know it, and that runs afoul
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: and violates every basic principle of constitutional law, flies right
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: in the face of the Supreme Court's previous decision in Arizona.
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: But this is what the Fifth Circuit has kind of
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: been set up to do. you know, Mitch McConnell and
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: Republican senators have blocked, you know, Democrats appointing judges in
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: states with Republican senators by abusing the blue slip, thereby
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: guaranteeing that Republican presidents could fill that and other circuits
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: where there are Republican senators with people who are so unhinged,
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: they think Justice Antonin Scalia is a Democrat. Like they
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: think that guy is basically a communist. And so they've
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: started citing the writings of Robert Bork, who was Ronald
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: Reagan's like failed nominee 40 years ago, because they're like,
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: that's the guy who like we want to treat as
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: the authoritative guy on this subject. And so the Fifth
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: Circuit has just completely gone off a loose cannon and
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: And it's not just the immigration case, right? That is
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: the circuit that gave you the injunction that barred the
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: Biden administration and the federal government from even talking to
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: social media companies about content moderation. This is a circuit
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: that gave you the medication abortion ruling that effectively slapped
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: on a bunch of additional restrictions on medication abortion that
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: the FDA deemed medically and scientifically unsound. This is the
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: court of appeals that just said Texas could enforce a
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: law that gave parents the ability to prevent their minor
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: children from accessing contraception, beginning the next wave on attacks
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: on contraception. This is the court of appeals that green-lighted SB-8,
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: the notorious bounty hunter law that nullified abortion rights and
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: Roe in Texas before the court formally overruled Roe. This
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: court is just where hope and law and dreams go
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: to die. And they are just pushing the Overton window
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: so far off of this galaxy that they are making
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: this Supreme Court look less insane. And I think that
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: is part of the game.
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: And.
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: You know, they came close again to allowing Texas to
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: enforce a federal immigration law that allows a state rather
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: than the federal government to deport and remove people, which
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: is not how any of this has worked for the
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: better part of 200 years.
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: But, you know, this.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: Court is just going to keep on pushing the boundaries
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: of this because this Supreme Court is not inclined to
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: really rein them in.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: I hope that was cathartic because it was at least
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: it was very informative for us. But I hope you
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: feel better after having gotten that off your chest. And
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: I encourage everyone.
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: I need like 75 minutes of uncontrolled screaming just what
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: the fuck over and over.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: That sounds like a bonus episode to me that would
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: do quite well. Leah Lemon, thank you so much for
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: being with us again on Pod Save America. As always,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: great to talk to you.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: Likewise.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks, Aaliyah, for joining us today. Everyone have a great weekend,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk to you on Tuesday.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at crooked.com
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: slash friends. And if you're already doom-scrolling, don't forget to
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: follow us at Pod Save America on Instagram, Twitter, and
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and more. Plus,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: a review. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Our associate producers are Saul Rubin and Farah Safari. Kira
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Wakeem is our senior producer. Reid Cherlin is our executive producer.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer. Madeline
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt DeGroat
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: is our head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: David Toles, Kirill Pelleviv, and Molly Lobel.