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Mark Carney calls for August byelections in 3 ridings · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Mark Karney is calling for three federal by
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  Speaker 1: elections on August the thirty first, so voters in British Columbia, Ontario,
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  Speaker 1: and Quebec will be heading back to the polls. Elections
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  Speaker 1: are going to be held in the following writings in
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  Speaker 1: BC the North Vancouver Capialana Writing in Ontario the Riding
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  Speaker 1: of Beaches East York, and in Quebec Chacudimi La Fjord.
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  Speaker 1: Jamie Gillies is a political scientist at Saint Thomas University
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  Speaker 1: and he joins us now to break down the significance
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  Speaker 1: of these by elections. Jamie, good to have you on
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  Speaker 1: the show.
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  Speaker 2: Great to be here, Natasha, thank you so much for
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  Speaker 2: having me.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's our pleasure. So, Jamie, I do want to
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  Speaker 1: get into the specifics of each of those three ridings,
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  Speaker 1: but let's begin with an overall assessment of how significant
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  Speaker 1: these by elections would be for the Carney government.
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  Speaker 2: Well, they need to win at least one on August
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  Speaker 2: thirty first to maintain that majority status that they worked
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  Speaker 2: so hard over the last year and a half to
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  Speaker 2: get with these floor crossings and negotiations with individual MPs
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  Speaker 2: to get to that majority status. So they do need
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  Speaker 2: to hold one of these, and in all likelihood Beaches
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  Speaker 2: East York is probably the one that they will probably
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  Speaker 2: face the least amount of competition, given that it is
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  Speaker 2: a pretty liberal stronghold in the Toronto area, and that.
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  Speaker 1: One was vacated by Nathan Ertz and Smith, so we
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  Speaker 1: know that that one, as you mentioned, very likely will
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  Speaker 1: go liberal. So let's talk about the other ones in
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  Speaker 1: BC and in Quebec. Why are those ridings now vacant?
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  Speaker 1: Are those seats now vacant and who are the candidates
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  Speaker 1: we should be watching for there?
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  Speaker 2: Well, Jonathan Wilkinson was a cabinet minister in the Carnei
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  Speaker 2: government and he's now taken up a position as an ambassador.
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  Speaker 2: And Richard Martel, who's a Conservative MP for election wins
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  Speaker 2: in a row for him, has now been appointed to
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  Speaker 2: the Senate. So those opened up those two ridings. And
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  Speaker 2: in North Vancouver Capilano. Although the suburbs of Vancouver can
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  Speaker 2: be sort of can swing between different parties, that's also
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  Speaker 2: a fairly strong chance for the Liberals to maintain and
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  Speaker 2: hold that riding in North Vancouver Capilano, given that that
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  Speaker 2: Wilkinson won comfortably in the last couple of elections. The
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  Speaker 2: real test this in these by elections in August, though,
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  Speaker 2: is the chaut Chacutami Liftior riding, because that one is
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  Speaker 2: one of the closest ridings in the country over the
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  Speaker 2: last few elections. It's elected all four major parties over
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  Speaker 2: the last couple of decades, and it was a three
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  Speaker 2: way race in the last couple and it probably will
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  Speaker 2: be again this time around.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, So if you want excitement, that's the one to watch.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely, that's the one because there's a lot at stake
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  Speaker 2: for all three parties there. If the Liberals could pick
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  Speaker 2: that one up, a former Conservative riding, that gives them
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  Speaker 2: a little more cushion going into the false setting in
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and perhaps helps that majority status that
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  Speaker 2: they want to maintain to pass key legislation coming up
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty seven. For the Conservatives, they need to
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  Speaker 2: hold that if they're still projected potentially as a government
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  Speaker 2: in waiting. Polyev needs to hold that. It's one of
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  Speaker 2: those ones that has been a consistent Conservative riding for
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  Speaker 2: the last couple of elections. And for the Block this
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  Speaker 2: is an opportunity for a pickup where it used to
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  Speaker 2: be a block riding and if they want to sort
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  Speaker 2: of go into the next election with a better position,
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  Speaker 2: that's the one. That's the one they also want to
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  Speaker 2: pick up.
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  Speaker 1: Jamie, please correct me if I'm wrong, But it felt
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  Speaker 1: like the last time around, when we had a series
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  Speaker 1: of by elections, the Carney government was still very much
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  Speaker 1: in its honeymoon phase. There was a huge elbows up movement.
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  Speaker 1: It seemed that the entire country, including the provincial governments,
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  Speaker 1: were on the same page in terms of moving forward
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  Speaker 1: in a specific direction. Right now with Kusman not being settled,
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  Speaker 1: more tariff threats coming from the United States and the
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  Speaker 1: Gordy Howbridge, and how the Prime minister sort of handle
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  Speaker 1: the communications around that, is there potentially more at stake
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  Speaker 1: or at risk for the Prime Minister.
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  Speaker 2: I think more than that there was six to eight
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  Speaker 2: months ago. The challenge is the mercurial nature of the
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  Speaker 2: Trump administration. Is Trump and the trade negotiation is going
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  Speaker 2: to focus negatively on Canada. We have a new set
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  Speaker 2: of tariffs potentially to deal with, and so that could
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  Speaker 2: be an issue that might nationalize these three by elections
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  Speaker 2: where a number of the other parties like the NDP
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  Speaker 2: and the Conservatives can start focusing on that of the
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  Speaker 2: fact that we're not getting the results we wanted with
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  Speaker 2: a Carney government with respective trade. However, Carney's still popular,
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  Speaker 2: the Liberals still have a national UH polling advantage across
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  Speaker 2: the country and I think though that it's the Chacutami
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  Speaker 2: by election really that we're going to see if there's
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  Speaker 2: some movement here, if the incumbent government and voters in
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  Speaker 2: Chacutami want to give them another chance and a stronger mandate,
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  Speaker 2: maybe the Liberal candidate will win there. For Paulia, though,
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  Speaker 2: if he loses this and it's hard to sort of
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  Speaker 2: predict what will happen, it's another concern going forward given
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  Speaker 2: the number of MPs who've crossed the floor already and
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  Speaker 2: Richard Martel losing him and then potentially the riding could
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  Speaker 2: be a real challenge for Paulia going forward.