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Daniel Davis Deep Dive - Iran War · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: From fifty five KRC Deep Talk Station See once Fi
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  Speaker 1: fifty five KRC the Talk station.
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  Speaker 2: It is that time.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Daniel Davis. It's time for the Daniel Davis
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  Speaker 1: Deeve Dive. I was lasting laughing at the bumper music
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  Speaker 1: that Joe is playing from Pink Floyd generally speaking about
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  Speaker 1: Warren generally and that's what you and I typically talk about.
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  Speaker 1: Said as it is, we are engaged in global conflict
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  Speaker 1: and nobody knows better than Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant colonel.
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  Speaker 1: And you can find podcasts from Daniel Davis throughout the
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  Speaker 1: week wherever you get your podcast. Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
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  Speaker 1: Welcome back, my friend, Gie. It's too bad we don't
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  Speaker 1: have anything to talk about today. Good to have you back.
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  Speaker 2: You know, I was thinking about that, Brian. It's like, man,
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  Speaker 2: what are we going to talk about Dador's hard anything.
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  Speaker 2: Oh wait a minute, yike.
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  Speaker 1: I don't want to throw a curveball because there's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of you know, activity going on that we can
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  Speaker 1: we can focus on it. We will, But I thought
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  Speaker 1: it rather interesting, perhaps if you can find levity in
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  Speaker 1: the situation. I was talking to Congressman David Taylor I
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  Speaker 1: believe it was on Friday, and we were talking about
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  Speaker 1: the War Powers Authorization of War Powers Resolution, Congressman Massy
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  Speaker 1: Rokanna saying, listen, we got a vote on this. He
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  Speaker 1: expressed some favor in that, and I said out loud,
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  Speaker 1: well the votes next week sometime. I think they have
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  Speaker 1: a queued up for Thursday. I said, well, what happens
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  Speaker 1: if Donald Trump's launches the war over the weekend ahead
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  Speaker 1: of the vote, And that's exactly what happened, So I
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  Speaker 1: don't think he was necessarily trying to get out ahead
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  Speaker 1: of the vote. What we found out, though, is I
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  Speaker 1: guess the Israeli intelligence is pretty damn good. You think
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  Speaker 1: a zoom call would have been a better idea for
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  Speaker 1: the Ayatola and his top leaders. They all congregated in
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  Speaker 1: one single spot. I thought they would have known better
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  Speaker 1: than that. Daniel Davis, your reaction to that.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a mixed one. At least according to what
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians have said was that they encouraged him to
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  Speaker 2: go into another place. They encouraged him to go into
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  Speaker 2: many underground bunkers that they have, and he said, no,
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  Speaker 2: I'm just going to keep going about my normal business
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  Speaker 2: and if I die, I die. Part of me thinks
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  Speaker 2: that they that was part of the plan. As an
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  Speaker 2: eighty six year old, I think he just said, you
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  Speaker 2: know what, I'm going to die, use me as a
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  Speaker 2: martin d that's where I can best serve. That's what
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  Speaker 2: That's part of it. But then the other part is
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  Speaker 2: less is less clear. If you wanted to become a martyr,
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  Speaker 2: that's one thing, But to have a meeting with a
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  Speaker 2: lot of your top leaders, that doesn't seem to be
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  Speaker 2: very wise. So I think that was a big mistake.
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  Speaker 2: It could be that they thought that, you know, the
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  Speaker 2: conventional military wisdom is you attacking the middle of the
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  Speaker 2: not two three am in the morning. That's kind of
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  Speaker 2: our modus operad died and when the sun came up
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  Speaker 2: at like six something, apparently they had this meeting at eight,
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  Speaker 2: and I guess they thought, Okay, well, it's not going
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  Speaker 2: to happen today, so let's come back together. And that
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  Speaker 2: curve ball was pretty pretty costly for the Iranian side.
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  Speaker 1: Well, of course, it ties into the whole idea of
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  Speaker 1: what is going to happen next. If this is regime change,
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  Speaker 1: we'll we'll find out. But you know, there's a command
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  Speaker 1: of control structure, there's a hierarchy, and most of the
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  Speaker 1: hierarchy evaporates in that one bomb strike. So what's left.
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  Speaker 1: I imagine there are enough fundamentalist individuals and somebody could
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  Speaker 1: step in the shoes of the Iotola and take over
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  Speaker 1: that role. But will that person have the same power
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  Speaker 1: and control that the late Iatola had because I understand
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  Speaker 1: this was like a cult of personality. He was the guy,
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  Speaker 1: and what he said goes, and everything was built in
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  Speaker 1: and around supporting him.
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is something we need to understand here so
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  Speaker 2: that we have a sober understanding of what should come next.
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  Speaker 2: The Iranians fully foresaw this and they had a plan
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  Speaker 2: in place. They had a Continuities government plan like we
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  Speaker 2: have here, and they had by some reports two and
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  Speaker 2: three deep on nearly all the senior leader positions. They
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  Speaker 2: also had something that we're seeing play out in that
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  Speaker 2: a version of the dead hand strategy to where if
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  Speaker 2: you lose communications because they anticipated that we would hit
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  Speaker 2: the command of control centers, that we would try to
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  Speaker 2: knock out their computer system cyber attax, et cetera, and
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  Speaker 2: that they would lose connect connectivity. So they already had
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  Speaker 2: an action plan in place and said, if you lose contact,
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  Speaker 2: here's your actions. Don't wait for any more instructions. You
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  Speaker 2: start launching these missile batteries. You start launching those, here's
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  Speaker 2: your target set, et cetera. And it worked brilliantly from
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian perspective. And I would challenge these characterizations that
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  Speaker 2: I see a lot of people making that this as
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  Speaker 2: a cult personality situation, because the Iranian situation is built
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  Speaker 2: on a hierarchical system and a bureaucracy that transcends just
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  Speaker 2: the iatola. He is a figure, he is important figure.
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  Speaker 2: He is the head of state. But they have a
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  Speaker 2: lot of other governing institutions and bodies and positions. So
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  Speaker 2: I think that they are going to have more success
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  Speaker 2: replacing this that I think many in the West may think.
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  Speaker 2: And so far, that's exactly the way it's worked out,
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  Speaker 2: And there hadn't been any diminution or reduction in their
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  Speaker 2: ability to conduct affairs or to have a coherent command
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  Speaker 2: of control system. And you haven't seen anybody rise up
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  Speaker 2: against it. And I'll tell you one other thing that's
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  Speaker 2: not working out in our favor at all. On the
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  Speaker 2: surface of it, you had this tragedy where a girls'
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  Speaker 2: school was hit in the opening rounds of this, whether
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  Speaker 2: by an American, is there's really missed, We don't know yet.
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  Speaker 2: But hundreds of kids were killed in teachers and that
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  Speaker 2: has galvanized the country against us, and they're openly protested.
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  Speaker 2: There was millions of people marching at their funeral I
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  Speaker 2: think earlier today, just hours ago, and that is not
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  Speaker 2: helping our hope that people would rise up against the
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  Speaker 2: regime after we knocked out the Mola, the Iola and
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  Speaker 2: then turn over right now, there's no evidence that's going
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  Speaker 2: to happen at all.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I let me suggest perhaps it is because the
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  Speaker 1: Itola had been going around killing tens of thousands of
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  Speaker 1: his own people who did raise this spec or did
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  Speaker 1: go out and protest. Maybe they still have that taste
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  Speaker 1: in the back of the mountain. They're waiting to see
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  Speaker 1: how things settle out. So I can of course understand
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  Speaker 1: loyalists taking to the street to protest a horrific action
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  Speaker 1: like blowing up a school. Question is whether there's an equal,
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  Speaker 1: if not greater number behind the scenes or keeping their
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  Speaker 1: powder dry because they're afraid that well the troops might
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  Speaker 1: pull gun them down the streets.
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  Speaker 2: Well, they certainly may, and if a lot of them
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  Speaker 2: protests up, that almost certainly would happen. But I'll tell
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  Speaker 2: you there's another dynamic here. I've talked to somebody I
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  Speaker 2: know that's in the United States that absolutely hated the regime.
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  Speaker 2: In fact, it was driven out. His family was driven
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  Speaker 2: out by him. I've talked to another friend of mine
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  Speaker 2: who himself interviewed somebody, and these are two people that
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  Speaker 2: absolutely hate the Iotota regime and all that and wanted
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  Speaker 2: to be overthrown. But they said that we have put
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  Speaker 2: them in this really, really awkward position to where you're saying, listen,
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  Speaker 2: you're wanting us to help you who is attacking us,
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  Speaker 2: Israel and the United States. You know, somebody who's been
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  Speaker 2: an enemy of Isra or Iran for a long time,
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  Speaker 2: and you're wanting us to somehow say, yes, we're gonna see,
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  Speaker 2: We're going to take your side who you're killing our people,
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  Speaker 2: our civilians, and are blowing up our cities and blowing
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  Speaker 2: up our military. And we're going to help you to
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  Speaker 2: try to overturn this. And then the other thing they say,
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  Speaker 2: both of them said is that, look, you've got a
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  Speaker 2: terrible track record of having regime change and then just
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  Speaker 2: walking away and leaving chaos behind. And we don't want
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  Speaker 2: to be another failed state. So that's making people not
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  Speaker 2: want to embrace what we're doing. And we got a
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  Speaker 2: lot of you know, we got a lot of bad
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  Speaker 2: history there on our side. It doesn't help us.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I suppose intent isn't worth a wit when you're
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  Speaker 1: talking about actual collateral damage. But the intent, I suppose,
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  Speaker 1: and I think I'm on solid ground on this. We
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  Speaker 1: don't want to kill the Iranian people. That may happen
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  Speaker 1: as consequence of war, which happens all the time. That's
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  Speaker 1: the regrettable part about it. That's why we all weep
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  Speaker 1: over warfare, because innocent people die. But we are truly
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  Speaker 1: after the military and the idea of liberating them from
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  Speaker 1: the military. That's the thumb of oppression, as we would
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  Speaker 1: put it, that prevents them from enjoying the freedoms and
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  Speaker 1: perhaps working cooperatively with their neighbors in the region.
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  Speaker 2: Well, but you got to understand though, from I mean,
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  Speaker 2: it's not too dissimilar from what we have here. We
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  Speaker 2: may not a lot of people may not like you know,
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  Speaker 2: whoever's in the White House at any given time, but
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  Speaker 2: everybody's sports the troops. Well, there's a similar situation in Iran,
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  Speaker 2: at least from part of it is that the military
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  Speaker 2: per se that keeps them, you know, that's their national
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  Speaker 2: security fences made up of people like them, so their
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  Speaker 2: neighbors and whatever they care about them. It's you know,
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  Speaker 2: it's the guys who were given orders, especially the ones
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  Speaker 2: that were keeping security, that were attacking the protesters. So
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  Speaker 2: those guys have a different category. But the general military
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  Speaker 2: who are getting attacked and stuff are part of the population.
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  Speaker 2: So that's that's not necessarily they don't necessarily view them
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  Speaker 2: as an enemy at.
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  Speaker 1: Large, all right, Daniel Davis, You and I have talked
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  Speaker 1: about this quite a few times in different battle theaters.
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  Speaker 1: The same thing applies here, the potential of running out
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  Speaker 1: of interceptors. We don't know how many bombs, rockets, long
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  Speaker 1: term miss or long range missiles of the Iranians have.
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  Speaker 1: They clearly have more, but we are going through the
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  Speaker 1: interceptors of various types I mentioned earlier, more than changes
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  Speaker 1: of underwear, you know, daily for me, and they're going
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  Speaker 1: through thousands of these things. It looks like they're going
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  Speaker 1: to run out. It's we can't make them as quickly
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  Speaker 1: as they need them, So more and more of these
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  Speaker 1: rockets are going to end up pitting targets.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is a huge problem. And when we're already
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  Speaker 2: seeing something I thank you and I talked about before.
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  Speaker 2: Is that. Listen, we saw in June twenty twenty five
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  Speaker 2: that a lot of these Iranian missiles we're getting through,
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  Speaker 2: and the longer that war went, the more of them
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  Speaker 2: we're getting through. And I said, there's no reason to
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  Speaker 2: think that they wouldn't start the next round where they
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  Speaker 2: ended up the last one. And that's how it's working out.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know if you've been seeing a lot of
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  Speaker 2: these missiles inner incoming into Israel, Yes, but I mean
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  Speaker 2: you see sometimes there's these whole broadges and you see
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  Speaker 2: two or three intercepted, and you see a bunch of
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  Speaker 2: them getting through there. So even with the interceptors we have,
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  Speaker 2: there's already a lot of the ballistic missiles that are
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  Speaker 2: getting through where have some success on the drones at
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  Speaker 2: least some success. Some of those are still getting through.
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  Speaker 2: But if you get to the point of where there's
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  Speaker 2: not enough to even shoot down some of the missiles here, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: there's gonna be a world to hurt because look, I
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  Speaker 2: think that Iran has foreseen this possibility and has prepared
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  Speaker 2: for decades, for decades, and they have an enormous stock
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  Speaker 2: pile of these things in these big underground missile cities
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  Speaker 2: some are calling them, which they have released some video
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  Speaker 2: and shows, and it's just caaverius and miles of underground tunnels.
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  Speaker 2: And I'm talking to like massive things that you can
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  Speaker 2: drive big trucks into, stuffed full of ammunition and weapons
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  Speaker 2: and missiles, missile launchers, drones, the big ones, the medium
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  Speaker 2: sized ones, all kinds of ordinance. So the evidence suggests
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  Speaker 2: that they have more offensive missiles than we do defensive missiles.
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  Speaker 2: And if this thing drags out, we're going to be
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  Speaker 2: in some trouble.
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  Speaker 1: Well, given Donald Trump's pronouncements that they haven't seen anything yet,
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  Speaker 1: is it possible that intelligence sources know where these are
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  Speaker 1: and like ultimately bombing the underground nuclear based or nuclear facilities,
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  Speaker 1: that those two will be targets, maybe, you know, eviscerating
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  Speaker 1: Iron's ability to, like our interceptor missiles, their ability to
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  Speaker 1: continue to launch these massive barrages.
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  Speaker 2: I have no doubts that that's a priority target for US.
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  Speaker 2: It has been from the beginning. I don't know why
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  Speaker 2: we would wait on that. I'm not sure what Trump
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  Speaker 2: may mean on that, but I'll just tell you these
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  Speaker 2: facilities were built specifically to withstand those kinds of missiles,
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  Speaker 2: and we have very few of these big GBU bunker
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  Speaker 2: busters that we used in the Operation Midnight Hammer, and
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  Speaker 2: even those had limited capacity under the very deeply underground
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  Speaker 2: strikes that we hit there at four to Oho and
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  Speaker 2: the tons, etc. So we don't have that many. And
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  Speaker 2: some of these have to be carried by B twos
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  Speaker 2: and you have to fly over the target and that
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  Speaker 2: makes them at risk of being shot down, so that
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  Speaker 2: it's a big risk that goes along with that. But
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  Speaker 2: the bottom line is there's so many of these and
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  Speaker 2: we don't know where they all are. This is a country, remember,
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  Speaker 2: four times bigger than the country of Iraq geographically. This
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  Speaker 2: stuff is spread out all over the place and you're
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  Speaker 2: not going to find this. I mean, just look how
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  Speaker 2: much trouble we had Israel had finding all the tunnels
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  Speaker 2: of Hamas in this tiny little Gozza strip. They never
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  Speaker 2: found them all. They're still looking for some today. If
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  Speaker 2: that gives you any indication of how hard it is
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  Speaker 2: going to be for us to knock out Iran.
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  Speaker 1: I always try to maintain an awareness of how vast
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  Speaker 1: the land is. Yeah, two point four times the state
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  Speaker 1: of Texas. That's a lot of real estate. The retired
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis for the Daniel Davis Deep Die
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  Speaker 1: Find his podcast wherever you get yours, Daniel Davis. Something
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  Speaker 1: tells me we'll be talking about this next Tuesday.
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  Speaker 2: I have a feeling your right.
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  Speaker 1: Well, at least we have an interesting topic to talk about.
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  Speaker 1: God bless you, sir. We'll talk next Tuesday. Have a
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  Speaker 1: great week, my friend.
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  Speaker 2: Then,