Latest / Pod Save America / Harris Pollster: Trump Has No Momentum

Transcript

Harris Pollster: Trump Has No Momentum · Pod Save America

0:21
Speaker 1: Welcome to another special episode of Pod Save America. I'm
0:24
Speaker 1: Dan Pfeiffer. This is the third of four bonus pods
0:27
Speaker 1: I'll be hosting on Sundays in the In today's episode,
0:30
Speaker 1: I'll be talking to Harris campaign pollster David Binder about
0:33
Speaker 1: the last week of the campaign, who the undecided voters are,
0:37
Speaker 1: and what the best arguments are to make to them
0:39
Speaker 1: in these final days. Then later, I'll be joined by
0:41
Speaker 1: senior editor of The Atlantic and senior CNN political analyst
0:44
Speaker 1: Ron Brownstein to talk about how the demographic shifts since
0:47
Speaker 1: 2020 are impacting the election. But first, here's my conversation
0:51
Speaker 1: with David Binder. David Binder, welcome to Pod Save America.
0:54
Speaker 1: How are you, man?
0:55
Speaker 2: Hello, Mr. Pfeiffer. I'm good, thank you.
0:58
Speaker 1: We are recording this about 10 days from the election.
1:00
Speaker 1: You were at the dentist this morning. I promise you
1:03
Speaker 1: this will not be the most painful thing you do
1:04
Speaker 1: all day.
1:04
Speaker 2: A little numb on one side. If I sound slurred,
1:08
Speaker 2: it's not because I had a Bloody Mary before the show.
1:12
Speaker 1: Our guests are often better when they have a drink
1:13
Speaker 1: before the show, but maybe a little localized anesthesia will
1:17
Speaker 1: have the same effect. Okay, here's where we are. We
1:20
Speaker 1: are 10 days out, and everyone wants to know from
1:23
Speaker 1: someone who would know better than anyone else, where do
1:25
Speaker 1: you see the race standing right now?
1:27
Speaker 2: I see the race as a toss-up. And you know, Dan,
1:30
Speaker 2: it's been a toss-up for almost as long as the
1:35
Speaker 2: vice president has been the nominee. There have been slight
1:40
Speaker 2: changes here and there, up and down, as you know
1:44
Speaker 2: from your review of polling. But the story is pretty
1:48
Speaker 2: much the same today as it has been ever since
1:51
Speaker 2: the vice president became the nominee, which is we're a
1:55
Speaker 2: margin of error race.
1:58
Speaker 1: And the press has kind of decided that for whatever reasons,
2:02
Speaker 1: maybe you see some of it in the public polling,
2:04
Speaker 1: which I know you abhor and ignore, that Trump has
2:08
Speaker 1: some momentum here at the end. What are you seeing
2:10
Speaker 1: in your polling? Has it really been static? Do you
2:12
Speaker 1: see momentum for him? Do you see momentum for Vice
2:14
Speaker 1: President Harris?
2:16
Speaker 2: We do not see momentum for Mr. Trump. Not totally sure.
2:20
Speaker 2: where the momentum stories are coming from, because in your right,
2:23
Speaker 2: there are public polls that we do pay attention to
2:25
Speaker 2: and some we don't, but they're all pretty much saying that, uh, the, the,
2:29
Speaker 2: when you look at the electoral college, you look at
2:31
Speaker 2: the seven States that are in play, the battleground States, um,
2:35
Speaker 2: all of them are still within the margin of error. And,
2:38
Speaker 2: you know, you might see a point moving toward Trump
2:40
Speaker 2: in some States and point moving toward Harris in some States. Um,
2:44
Speaker 2: I don't see any sign of a late break at
2:47
Speaker 2: this point. Late breaks do happen, as you know. You know,
2:49
Speaker 2: we've seen them in the past. But we're not seeing
2:52
Speaker 2: any indications of that now, late break one way or
2:54
Speaker 2: the other. The polling is really very consistent in this sense.
2:58
Speaker 2: It's a couple of points here, a couple of points there,
3:00
Speaker 2: or a flat-footed tie in so many of these battleground
3:03
Speaker 2: states are going to be the decisive factor.
3:06
Speaker 1: I talked to Plouffe a few weeks ago, and he
3:09
Speaker 1: estimated they're about 4% undecided and maybe about 10% in
3:13
Speaker 1: total persuadable voters. Who are those voters, right? What groups
3:18
Speaker 1: make up that, or disproportionately make up that group of
3:20
Speaker 1: undecided voters?
3:22
Speaker 2: Among the undecideds that we think will vote, because there's
3:25
Speaker 2: also the question of the undecideds that don't vote, which
3:29
Speaker 2: we could talk about separately if you want.
3:30
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, please do.
3:31
Speaker 2: They tend to be Independent voters of all ages are
3:36
Speaker 2: not really, you know, we don't look at any particular
3:39
Speaker 2: age group as having a higher proportion of undecideds than others.
3:43
Speaker 2: But that small amount of undecideds are essentially people that
3:46
Speaker 2: are conflicted in politics. happy to talk more about what
3:50
Speaker 2: is behind that conflict. But right now, they are pretty
3:54
Speaker 2: representative of the electorate as a whole. We do find
3:58
Speaker 2: some more younger people undecided these days. Young Men is
4:02
Speaker 2: a group that is a little bit more undecided than
4:06
Speaker 2: we've seen in the past, but usually the undecided is
4:10
Speaker 2: pretty reflective of the electorate as a whole.
4:12
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the conflict that some of these voters
4:14
Speaker 1: are having. What is it that is keeping them back
4:17
Speaker 1: from making a decision one way or the other in
4:18
Speaker 1: this race?
4:18
Speaker 2: Most of the undecideds that we talk to are telling
4:21
Speaker 2: us that they have a fond memory of the economy
4:27
Speaker 2: under Donald Trump's presidency. At the same time, they are
4:32
Speaker 2: saying they have very strong concerns about him as a person.
4:38
Speaker 2: And they look at the vice president and they say,
4:41
Speaker 2: here is somebody new. We aren't all that clear on
4:46
Speaker 2: what she did when she was vice president, but she
4:49
Speaker 2: talks about things that we care about. We're not totally
4:52
Speaker 2: sure how she's going to do it. And we feel
4:55
Speaker 2: like there's a little bit of a risk in trying
4:57
Speaker 2: someone like her who we're not all that aware of.
5:00
Speaker 2: You know, obviously, the run ups after she was a
5:03
Speaker 2: nominee has been very short. And many people say that
5:06
Speaker 2: they didn't hear a lot about her when she was president.
5:08
Speaker 2: the sitting vice president. So because of that, some of
5:10
Speaker 2: these people are saying, let's go back to the guy
5:12
Speaker 2: that we know has been there for four years and
5:14
Speaker 2: the economy was running strongly during that period. So they're
5:18
Speaker 2: telling us that they're conflicted a little bit about the economy,
5:22
Speaker 2: concerns about whether the vice president will be able to
5:26
Speaker 2: really make a difference in their lives, but at the
5:28
Speaker 2: same time having very strong concerns about Donald Trump as
5:32
Speaker 2: a person and the divisiveness and the anger and hostility
5:37
Speaker 2: that he brings to the body politic.
5:39
Speaker 1: I assume this is a balance, but it's sort of
5:41
Speaker 1: being portrayed in the press as sort of this choice
5:44
Speaker 1: the Harris campaign has, right? There is, should you spend
5:46
Speaker 1: these last 10 days with your paid and earned media
5:49
Speaker 1: educating voters about who she is and what she would do,
5:52
Speaker 1: or should you spend your time warning people about the
5:55
Speaker 1: kind of president Trump would be, whether that's his economic policies,
5:59
Speaker 1: the claims from John Kelly and others that he's a fascist,
6:01
Speaker 1: Project 25, whatever it is? How do you think about
6:03
Speaker 1: that messaging mix with these voters? Is it different for
6:05
Speaker 1: individual voters or is there sort of a way to
6:08
Speaker 1: do it?
6:09
Speaker 2: In our mind, or at least in my mind, it
6:10
Speaker 2: has to be both. You cannot do one or the other.
6:12
Speaker 2: There are really three. And we also have to talk
6:15
Speaker 2: about abortion and reproductive rights and not leave that off
6:18
Speaker 2: the table because that is something that is still incredibly
6:21
Speaker 2: important to so many voters across the country. And they're
6:24
Speaker 2: not buying Donald Trump's statement that I left it up
6:26
Speaker 2: to the states and everything's fine. They all wanted me
6:29
Speaker 2: to do it. You know, so voters are rejecting Trump's
6:33
Speaker 2: comment on abortion and they're fearful for what might happen
6:36
Speaker 2: if he wins on abortion. But with regard to the
6:38
Speaker 2: two things you just mentioned, Do voters need to hear
6:41
Speaker 2: more about Kamala Harris's positive policy prescriptions that are going
6:46
Speaker 2: to help the middle class bring down costs, make sure
6:49
Speaker 2: health care is affordable, prescription drugs, and just go down
6:52
Speaker 2: the line of the sorts of things that she's talking about?
6:55
Speaker 2: They do need to hear that, and they need to
6:57
Speaker 2: know that she's committed to fighting for those things every day.
7:00
Speaker 2: But at the same time, we cannot ignore the threat
7:04
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump poses as a potential threat. leader of
7:08
Speaker 2: the free world for the next four years because of
7:11
Speaker 2: not only what John Kelly said, but many other people
7:13
Speaker 2: who have worked closely with him that say that he
7:16
Speaker 2: is a threat and he will be a threat to
7:17
Speaker 2: the world order and the country's peace. So it's hard
7:21
Speaker 2: to say some voters need to hear the positive Harris,
7:24
Speaker 2: other voters need to hear the concerns and threat about Trump.
7:27
Speaker 2: Both messages need to get out.
7:29
Speaker 1: And when you talk about, as the vice president did
7:32
Speaker 1: in her press statement on Wednesday and then in the
7:35
Speaker 1: CNN town hall on Wednesday evening about saying that Trump
7:40
Speaker 1: is a fascist. Does that word mean anything to people
7:42
Speaker 1: or do you have to go a step further and
7:43
Speaker 1: sort of explain what it is and how do you
7:45
Speaker 1: connect that threat to people's lives, right? If it's sort
7:48
Speaker 1: of like he's a threat, he would do these things,
7:50
Speaker 1: but also price of eggs. Like, how do you make
7:52
Speaker 1: it fit for people?
7:54
Speaker 2: You know, I don't think it's so much about a
7:56
Speaker 2: word because one word doesn't necessarily communicate in of itself
8:03
Speaker 2: what the threat is. I think the things that John
8:06
Speaker 2: Kelly and we can go down the line with Mark
8:10
Speaker 2: Milley and everyone else are saying is that we cannot
8:13
Speaker 2: trust Donald Trump to have the country's best interests at
8:16
Speaker 2: heart because he's focused on himself. He may be focused
8:20
Speaker 2: on retribution. and that their experience with him in the
8:25
Speaker 2: Oval Office, in the Situation Room, is he is one
8:28
Speaker 2: that doesn't follow the norms that are needed for the
8:31
Speaker 2: president of the country. So what voters need to know
8:34
Speaker 2: about him is that four more years of him could
8:38
Speaker 2: lead to greater chaos. It could lead to disorder, both
8:43
Speaker 2: domestic and international. And it's not just Kamala Harris and
8:47
Speaker 2: the liberals saying this. It's the people that worked with
8:50
Speaker 2: him that were closest to him who say that they
8:54
Speaker 2: are scared about and they don't trust him to be
8:56
Speaker 2: the leader of the country. So those are the things
8:59
Speaker 2: that need to be. communicated to the voters at the
9:02
Speaker 2: end here. They have to understand that the people closest
9:05
Speaker 2: to Trump who worked with him in those very difficult periods,
9:10
Speaker 2: you know, in the situation room when Trump is dealing
9:13
Speaker 2: with international issues that are coming back and telling America
9:17
Speaker 2: now that what Donald Trump said during those circumstances were scary.
9:22
Speaker 2: And we don't want to give him the keys to
9:24
Speaker 2: the car again.
9:25
Speaker 1: You obviously are the focus group maestro. You've done more
9:27
Speaker 1: focus groups probably than anyone walking the planet over the
9:30
Speaker 1: long course of your career. One thing that I've seen,
9:33
Speaker 1: some focus groups I've seen, when you do the dictator argument,
9:35
Speaker 1: this is now before Kelly and Milley said it publicly,
9:37
Speaker 1: just Democrats asserting or using Trump's words that he is
9:40
Speaker 1: a dictator, is voters will say, well, he was president
9:42
Speaker 1: for four years. And I didn't love all the things
9:44
Speaker 1: he did, but he wasn't a dictator, right? Democracy didn't fall.
9:47
Speaker 1: The country is still standing. What's the best response to that?
9:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, we do hear that all the time, Dan.
9:52
Speaker 2: People are saying that frequently. You really nailed it, kind
9:54
Speaker 2: of where they are. The best response to that is
9:57
Speaker 2: that the people who were around him, that kept him
10:01
Speaker 2: in check during his first presidential term are now gone.
10:05
Speaker 2: And we sometimes say there are no guardrails is another
10:07
Speaker 2: phrase that we use to describe that. And it's true.
10:11
Speaker 2: There's several proof points for that. Not only is John
10:13
Speaker 2: Kelly gone and is Rex Tillerson gone, is Mark Milley gone,
10:17
Speaker 2: but Trump has said that he wants to appoint people
10:22
Speaker 2: that are loyal to him, both as advisors, but also
10:27
Speaker 2: as cabinet members and also, you know, as the head
10:29
Speaker 2: of the Department of Justice. So that when Trump says,
10:32
Speaker 2: I want to go after that guy, the DOJ will say, yes, sir.
10:38
Speaker 2: And that anytime he says, you know, if he says
10:40
Speaker 2: something about, I want troops to go clear the National
10:43
Speaker 2: Mall before I go out there, they go, yes, sir.
10:46
Speaker 2: And what we hear in our focus groups, and we
10:47
Speaker 2: tell people that, Dan, is that people are saying, you know,
10:51
Speaker 2: we don't want the president to be surrounded by a
10:53
Speaker 2: bunch of yes men. The president needs to hear a
10:56
Speaker 2: diversity of opinion. And we know that when Donald Trump
10:59
Speaker 2: gets in office, it's my way or the highway. So
11:02
Speaker 2: when Donald Trump has impulses, He will act on them
11:06
Speaker 2: and there won't be anyone there to say, sir, you're
11:10
Speaker 2: out of line. Think twice about this. What you're doing
11:13
Speaker 2: may be illegal. Instead, they'll say, yes, sir, go do it.
11:19
Speaker 1: We are recording this right before Donald Trump's sitting down
11:22
Speaker 1: with Joe Rogan, which is part of his. very public,
11:26
Speaker 1: very aggressive, it seems, appeal to a certain set of
11:30
Speaker 1: Gen Z men, particularly online ones, I think, are the
11:32
Speaker 1: ones he's targeting here. Talk to me a little about
11:34
Speaker 1: the role that Gen Z men play in your coalition
11:37
Speaker 1: and how you guys are trying to appeal to them
11:39
Speaker 1: and what issues they care about.
11:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Gen Z men are interesting in this
11:42
Speaker 2: case because I believe the Trump campaign has frequently looked
11:46
Speaker 2: at younger men, Gen Z men, as someone that he
11:50
Speaker 2: can appeal to You know, sometimes I question whether you
11:54
Speaker 2: go to the Republican National Convention, you see Hulk Hogan
11:58
Speaker 2: ripping his shirt off or Kid Rock playing music. And
12:00
Speaker 2: I'm not not totally sure that that's the best way
12:03
Speaker 2: to reach them. But if you talk to young men,
12:07
Speaker 2: their issues are not all that different than anybody else's.
12:09
Speaker 2: They want to have the ability to have a good
12:12
Speaker 2: job with benefits and have a family and provide for family.
12:17
Speaker 2: So they are focused on not only the day-to-day economy,
12:22
Speaker 2: but the future economy. And I think there's a lot
12:24
Speaker 2: of frustration. We hear young men saying, I want to
12:27
Speaker 2: be a home buyer, but the home housing costs are
12:30
Speaker 2: out of control. Things like that, that are frustrating them
12:34
Speaker 2: with the status quo. And I think if you ask me, Dan,
12:36
Speaker 2: why is it that younger men seem to be not
12:41
Speaker 2: as strong Right now in the polls for Harris, as
12:44
Speaker 2: they may have been for Obama or for Biden, one
12:47
Speaker 2: thing we would say is that they have concerns about
12:50
Speaker 2: the last four years not giving them what they wanted economically,
12:53
Speaker 2: not giving them that economic security. And there are a
12:56
Speaker 2: lot of reasons for that. I think the aftermath of
12:57
Speaker 2: COVID messed everything up economically. But right now when we're
13:02
Speaker 2: talking to young men, they are talking to us about
13:05
Speaker 2: making sure they have a good job, making sure they
13:07
Speaker 2: have benefits, making sure they have a salary, making sure
13:09
Speaker 2: interest rates are low, making sure they can buy a home.
13:12
Speaker 1: So they're like normal voters, right? They're not this mystery,
13:15
Speaker 1: you know, sort of when you read the press accounts,
13:16
Speaker 1: it's like they care about crypto and gaming and cancel culture.
13:19
Speaker 2: I don't buy any of that. Or you hear stuff like,
13:22
Speaker 2: you know, there's been a war on white men, white
13:24
Speaker 2: young guys feel like they're to blame for the world.
13:27
Speaker 2: You know, we don't hear that. I mean, I see
13:28
Speaker 2: it online sometimes, like, you know, there's a woke culture,
13:32
Speaker 2: a feminist movement that has made young men feel that
13:34
Speaker 2: they are outcast. We never hear that.
13:38
Speaker 1: You know, you and I obviously worked together in two
13:39
Speaker 1: Obama campaigns where change was the predominant issue. A lot
13:43
Speaker 1: of campaigns really are a battle between change versus status quo.
13:45
Speaker 1: This is a very confusing one because you have the
13:48
Speaker 1: sitting vice president to the incumbent president, and then you
13:50
Speaker 1: have the former incumbent president. So it's sort of, is
13:53
Speaker 1: it change? Is it status quo?
13:54
Speaker 2: What is it?
13:55
Speaker 1: How important is it for Vice President Harris to represent
14:00
Speaker 1: some form of change from either the present or the
14:03
Speaker 1: last decade or from the, you know, how are you
14:04
Speaker 1: guys thinking about that?
14:05
Speaker 2: I think it's very important. And I think the vice
14:07
Speaker 2: president thinks it's very important. You know, she's obviously said
14:11
Speaker 2: many times that she is not Joe Biden. She won't
14:13
Speaker 2: be a continuation of Joe Biden. And she does talk
14:16
Speaker 2: a little bit about the generational difference. You know, Donald
14:19
Speaker 2: Trump is 78. And when we know how old Joe
14:23
Speaker 2: Biden is and the vice president just turned 60, but
14:25
Speaker 2: she's of a different mindset, a different generation. Her upbringing
14:29
Speaker 2: has given her a set of experiences that are very different.
14:32
Speaker 2: So I think that it's important for her to tell
14:36
Speaker 2: the country, I am different. I have a different approach.
14:42
Speaker 2: And I'm going to be very committed to making sure
14:44
Speaker 2: that I will improve the lives of middle-class Americans today
14:50
Speaker 2: and for their children or their grandchildren. She has stepchildren herself.
14:54
Speaker 2: She will have grandchildren. she is someone that is looking
14:59
Speaker 2: at the problems of the country from a little bit
15:01
Speaker 2: of a different lens than these guys who were born
15:03
Speaker 2: in the 1940s.
15:05
Speaker 1: You brought up Trump's age, and there's been a big
15:07
Speaker 1: effort from the campaign, at least in some of their
15:09
Speaker 1: public remarks and on social media, to talk about how,
15:11
Speaker 1: you know, Trump, political report that Trump was exhausted, he's
15:14
Speaker 1: canceling events. Is there, you know, I've seen polling, you know,
15:17
Speaker 1: the New York Times poll out today, it's like 40%
15:18
Speaker 1: of people think Trump's too old. What role does his
15:21
Speaker 1: age play in this at all, or sort of questions
15:23
Speaker 1: about his mental capacity?
15:24
Speaker 2: You know, it's funny, Dan, when we were doing the
15:26
Speaker 2: groups of Biden and Trump before Biden stepped aside, they
15:34
Speaker 2: were focused on Biden's age, saying, you know, he were
15:37
Speaker 2: worried about his mental capacity and agility. And will he
15:41
Speaker 2: go downhill in four years? They weren't saying that much
15:43
Speaker 2: about Trump because Trump appeared a little bit more vigorous
15:46
Speaker 2: than Biden during that period. But now we are hearing
15:48
Speaker 2: that more about Trump because without the contrast of Trump
15:50
Speaker 2: and Kamala Harris. And now there's no question about people
15:53
Speaker 2: saying that Kamala Harris is vigorous and energetic. But they
15:56
Speaker 2: do start to say the same about Donald Trump. And
15:58
Speaker 2: part of that is because more people are hearing what
16:01
Speaker 2: he's saying in the rallies. He calls it a weave.
16:05
Speaker 2: Other people call it rambling. It has... It has set
16:10
Speaker 2: into motion some questions. Is he going to be mentally
16:15
Speaker 2: able in four years? You know, because right now, if
16:17
Speaker 2: he wins, he's going to be in office from 2025
16:21
Speaker 2: to 2029 is when when a new president would be.
16:23
Speaker 2: You ask voters, what do you think about Donald Trump
16:26
Speaker 2: in 2029? And they're like, you know, so his age
16:30
Speaker 2: is an issue, both because of just the actual number,
16:35
Speaker 2: the actual numeric age gap. of him being in office
16:39
Speaker 2: until he's in his early 80s, but also because he's
16:42
Speaker 2: behaving a little weird in his rallies and the things
16:45
Speaker 2: he says. And when voters see that, they get more
16:48
Speaker 2: and more concerned. You know, it's funny because his age,
16:51
Speaker 2: I said age is a number of something that bothers people,
16:53
Speaker 2: but it's really, you have to tie that in with
16:55
Speaker 2: some concern that mental capacity isn't going to be as
16:59
Speaker 2: strong moving forward. Do you want a president who's going
17:02
Speaker 2: to be nimble, who's going to be spontaneous, who will
17:04
Speaker 2: make the right decision? in a crisis. And if you
17:08
Speaker 2: have doubts about the person's mental capacity to be able
17:13
Speaker 2: to understand what's happening in a crisis, then you may
17:18
Speaker 2: decide to choose the younger person who you have more
17:20
Speaker 2: confidence in.
17:21
Speaker 1: You know, at the debate, Kamala Harris invited Americans to
17:25
Speaker 1: attend a Trump rally, which is, as I joke, a
17:27
Speaker 1: good way to win votes and lose friends. And then
17:30
Speaker 1: at the recent rally, she's been showing video of Trump's
17:33
Speaker 1: events I take it that that's part of that argument.
17:36
Speaker 1: You want people to see him because a lot of
17:38
Speaker 1: voters really, because of the change in the media environment,
17:40
Speaker 1: have not seen him actually speak live maybe in years, right?
17:46
Speaker 3: Right.
17:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that was strategic. The debate was
17:51
Speaker 2: one of the first times that voters saw him. spontaneous in,
17:56
Speaker 2: you know, I'm talking about voters that are kind of,
17:58
Speaker 2: you know, people like us, people like you. But, you know,
18:03
Speaker 2: but then he talked about, you know, people are eating
18:05
Speaker 2: the cats and eating the dogs and people got. And
18:09
Speaker 2: now I think when we see that that wasn't just
18:11
Speaker 2: a one off, that's really the sort of person that
18:13
Speaker 2: Trump is. He says stuff like that. So showing him
18:17
Speaker 2: speaking at rallies and saying crazy things, and he said,
18:20
Speaker 2: America's a garbage can. And I don't know how many
18:24
Speaker 2: people would have seen that particular phrase, but I doubt
18:26
Speaker 2: that the vast majority of American voters believe that America's
18:32
Speaker 2: a garbage can, nor want a president who thinks that.
18:36
Speaker 2: That's one example of the sorts of things that people
18:39
Speaker 2: of the vast majority of voters may not be seeing
18:42
Speaker 2: or hearing. That is a reason why the vice president
18:45
Speaker 2: is trying to show that a little bit more frequently.
18:48
Speaker 1: Like one of the defining characteristics of this campaign dating
18:51
Speaker 1: all the way back to 2023 when Trump was running
18:54
Speaker 1: has been a media environment where casual voters, right? Even
18:59
Speaker 1: some of them, even maybe in some cases, the majority
19:01
Speaker 1: or priority voters are just not consuming political news in
19:04
Speaker 1: the way they used to, right? They're not seeking out
19:07
Speaker 1: and it doesn't get to them sort of organically anymore
19:10
Speaker 1: because of changes in social media. And so, you know,
19:12
Speaker 1: there was, the folks at Blueprint did a poll a
19:14
Speaker 1: few months ago that's just like, how many people heard
19:17
Speaker 1: anything about But the Biden debate, and it's like 25%
19:20
Speaker 1: of people heard nothing about it, 30% of people heard
19:22
Speaker 1: nothing about either of the convention speeches. Are you seeing
19:25
Speaker 1: your persuadable voter universe, your undecided voters, tune in more
19:28
Speaker 1: in recent weeks? Are people now... dialing into this race
19:31
Speaker 1: here in the final weeks, or are people still a
19:33
Speaker 1: little removed from the news?
19:35
Speaker 2: They're not doing it of their own volition. What they're
19:38
Speaker 2: telling us- You.
19:39
Speaker 1: Guys are spending a billion dollars to show it to them?
19:44
Speaker 2: They feel they're being inundated with election information, but a
19:47
Speaker 2: lot of it's coming from TikTok or Instagram, from their
19:52
Speaker 2: social media sources. They are not seeking it out. I mean,
19:55
Speaker 2: we talked to especially younger voters, but we talked to
19:57
Speaker 2: our full range of voters about where they're consuming their
20:00
Speaker 2: political information. And it runs a whole gamut. There's still
20:03
Speaker 2: people that watch the local news at six o'clock. There
20:05
Speaker 2: are people that say, I'll watch CNN and then I'll
20:07
Speaker 2: go to Fox and I'll go to MSNBC and see
20:10
Speaker 2: how they're treating the same story. But there are other
20:12
Speaker 2: people who are saying, like, I've had enough of this already. Like,
20:15
Speaker 2: I just want it to be over. And those people
20:17
Speaker 2: are primarily they're not seeking out anything, but it's coming
20:20
Speaker 2: to them through the various channels and social media channels.
20:24
Speaker 2: And that's a little bit of a problem because the
20:26
Speaker 2: information they're getting is invented. Obviously, a lot of them
20:29
Speaker 2: know what they say. Like, I don't know if it's
20:30
Speaker 2: fact check. I don't know what's true anymore. But for
20:34
Speaker 2: some voters, it's like, you know, such a difficult situation
20:38
Speaker 2: to or a difficult time to consume political news and
20:41
Speaker 2: not know if it's AI, if it's A deepfake, if
20:48
Speaker 2: it's psyops, you know, this is stuff we hear all
20:50
Speaker 2: the time. And for some people, they just kind of
20:52
Speaker 2: give up. And that's why I go back to the
20:55
Speaker 2: question you asked before about, are the undecideds going to vote?
21:00
Speaker 2: You know, who are the undecideds? And then I pointed
21:02
Speaker 2: out some of them may not vote at all.
21:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, talk a little bit about that, please.
21:06
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, no, it's interesting because, you know, it used
21:10
Speaker 2: to be, Dan, when we and I started our youth,
21:14
Speaker 2: that we had a rule of thumb that the greater
21:17
Speaker 2: the turnout, the better it was for Democrats or liberals,
21:21
Speaker 2: because young people tended to be a little bit more left-leaning.
21:25
Speaker 2: They were the ones that were a little bit iffier
21:29
Speaker 2: on voting regularly, while older people who tended to be
21:33
Speaker 2: a little bit more conservative would be, I'll vote hell
21:36
Speaker 2: or high water. That has changed now. It's no longer
21:39
Speaker 2: the sense that a high turnout necessarily means good for
21:42
Speaker 2: the liberals because now with Trump, he brought out a
21:45
Speaker 2: group of new voters back in 2016 that normally would
21:49
Speaker 2: not have voted. Uh, and the question where we're facing
21:54
Speaker 2: now in 2024 is, are the people that, you know,
21:56
Speaker 2: the Trump's focusing on, on kind of, you know, the
22:00
Speaker 2: maybe young men that have not voted before, will they
22:03
Speaker 2: get off the couch and vote for him? Similarly, will,
22:05
Speaker 2: will some of the people that are normally, you know,
22:08
Speaker 2: constituencies of the Democrats, uh, come out and vote. So,
22:11
Speaker 2: you know, it may be that in this election, uh,
22:14
Speaker 2: a higher turnout does not necessarily mean good things for
22:17
Speaker 2: the Democrats. And it may be that some of the, uh,
22:20
Speaker 2: Some of the people who are leaning Trump end up
22:24
Speaker 2: staying home themselves. That's why it's such a question mark
22:26
Speaker 2: right now. The whole game comes out to turnout, and
22:29
Speaker 2: the turnout skew could go either direction.
22:32
Speaker 1: I think it feels like a lot of people, not
22:35
Speaker 1: you guys who have the actual data, but the people
22:36
Speaker 1: who sort of analyze the election or maybe on the
22:39
Speaker 1: periphery of the efforts to elect Harris or defeat Trump,
22:43
Speaker 1: really just say, this is like 2020, it's like 2020,
22:45
Speaker 1: it's going to be just like 2020. And whether she gets,
22:48
Speaker 1: can she get Biden's numbers with Latinos in order to,
22:52
Speaker 1: if she falls by one point, where she can get
22:53
Speaker 1: that other point because it's so close. But it seems
22:55
Speaker 1: very possible this election could end up looking very different
22:57
Speaker 1: than 2020, right? It's just in terms of turnout and composition.
23:00
Speaker 1: How are you guys thinking about that?
23:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's clear. I mean, there are some polls
23:06
Speaker 2: would indicate that the proportion of younger Black and Latino
23:12
Speaker 2: men may not be this. Harris may not reach the
23:17
Speaker 2: benchmarks that Biden got with them. But there are also
23:19
Speaker 2: indications that Harris is doing better with some cohort of Republicans.
23:23
Speaker 2: I mean, she campaigns with Liz Cheney and has significant
23:27
Speaker 2: Republican support. So the question mark, will it be like
23:30
Speaker 2: a little 5%, 7%, 9%, 10% of Republicans that cross
23:34
Speaker 2: over and vote for Harris that would mitigate what small
23:38
Speaker 2: losses she could get with some of the younger men,
23:42
Speaker 2: both white men and Latino men. I think the concern
23:45
Speaker 2: about Black voters not being as strong for her, I
23:48
Speaker 2: think is a bit misguided. I expect her to meet
23:52
Speaker 2: those thresholds with Black voters. But that is the question
23:57
Speaker 2: now is, are there different dynamics of play with Harris
24:01
Speaker 2: as the candidate that would cause her maybe to not
24:05
Speaker 2: gain as much or to slip a little bit with
24:08
Speaker 2: the Latino vote, but make up with it a little
24:10
Speaker 2: bit among Republican women, especially younger Republican women?
24:15
Speaker 1: I take it that Liz Cheney is a good surrogate
24:17
Speaker 1: for those people. Who are the other some of good
24:19
Speaker 1: surrogates that are helpful in persuading some of these undecided
24:22
Speaker 1: voters to get off the couch and vote?
24:25
Speaker 2: Well, there are Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, a couple of surrogates.
24:31
Speaker 2: I think on the stump, the former Trump staff that
24:38
Speaker 2: have now come out for her. So Liz Cheney obviously
24:41
Speaker 2: was a congresswoman from Wyoming. We have people like Olivia Troy,
24:45
Speaker 2: people that were within the White House administration that were
24:50
Speaker 2: working for Trump, wanted his administration to succeed. who watched
24:54
Speaker 2: it now say, I'm endorsing Kamala Harris and I hope
24:57
Speaker 2: you will too. So those sorts of people are important,
25:02
Speaker 2: I think. And you can even go back to Adam Kinzinger,
25:04
Speaker 2: who's still a very good surrogate himself.
25:07
Speaker 1: Okay. Kamala Harris is going to give her closing argument
25:10
Speaker 1: speech on Tuesday. She's going to do it from the Ellipse,
25:13
Speaker 1: the site of Donald Trump's infamous speech before the crowd
25:17
Speaker 1: marched to the Capitol. What is the one thing that
25:21
Speaker 1: you want undecided voters to have in their head when
25:24
Speaker 1: they walk in the voting booth, sit down at the
25:26
Speaker 1: kitchen table with their ballot? Is there a moment, a vision,
25:29
Speaker 1: an issue you want them thinking about? Because that's really
25:31
Speaker 1: what the battle of the last days of the campaign is.
25:33
Speaker 1: What's the last thing people are thinking about?
25:35
Speaker 2: I want them to be knowing that with Kamala Harris
25:39
Speaker 2: as vice president, she'll wake up every day thinking about them,
25:44
Speaker 2: thinking about how to improve their lives, what she can
25:46
Speaker 2: do to help Americans of all parties, all ages, all
25:52
Speaker 2: Americans have a better life. They need to know that
25:55
Speaker 2: you will be focused on that every single day. And
25:58
Speaker 2: then there are corollaries, and we could talk about what
26:01
Speaker 2: that means with regard to bringing prices down or helping
26:03
Speaker 2: with child care and making sure that Medicare covers home care.
26:08
Speaker 2: so that older people can get care in their home
26:10
Speaker 2: and not have to go to a nursing home. I mean,
26:11
Speaker 2: there's a list of things. She's now talking about her
26:13
Speaker 2: to-do list. But what voters need to know when they
26:16
Speaker 2: cast that ballot on election day is that Kamala Harris
26:18
Speaker 2: will be fighting for them.
26:20
Speaker 3: Right.
26:20
Speaker 1: That's the core contrast, right? Kamala Harris is for them.
26:22
Speaker 1: Trump's for himself. Is that right?
26:24
Speaker 2: That's right.
26:25
Speaker 1: Well, David Binder, this is a great place to end it.
26:28
Speaker 1: It is great to talk to you. It's great to
26:29
Speaker 1: see you, my old friend. Good luck in this final
26:31
Speaker 1: stretch here. I'll be thinking about you.
26:33
Speaker 2: Thank you, Dan. Always good to be with you.
26:35
Speaker 1: If you're listening to this podcast, you're already supporting the
26:37
Speaker 1: work we do here at Crooked Media, so thank you
26:39
Speaker 1: for that. As you may have heard, because we've told
26:41
Speaker 1: you many, many times, we're currently offering 25% off annual
26:44
Speaker 1: subscriptions to Friends of the Pod. Here's why you should
26:46
Speaker 1: sign up to be a subscriber. Crooked's mission is to
26:49
Speaker 1: create a space for honest conversations about news, politics, and
26:52
Speaker 1: the world around us. And no matter who wins in 2024,
26:54
Speaker 1: we'll remain committed to that mission. Let me give some
26:57
Speaker 1: context about why this matters. As we can tell in
27:00
Speaker 1: this election, the right-wing media machine has never been more powerful.
27:02
Speaker 1: They have spread dangerous lies about Hurricane Helene, about the
27:06
Speaker 1: migrants in Springfield. They are cleaning up Trump's messes. They
27:09
Speaker 1: are launching false and damaging attacks against Kamala Harris and
27:12
Speaker 1: other Democrats up and down the ballot. John, John, and
27:14
Speaker 1: Tommy started Crooked Media as a way to fight back
27:17
Speaker 1: against that media machine, to fight back against Republican disinformation
27:20
Speaker 1: and propaganda. And we have big plans for 2025, no
27:23
Speaker 1: matter who wins this election. But signing up for an
27:26
Speaker 1: annual membership to the Friends of the Pod program is
27:29
Speaker 1: the best way to support us because it allows us
27:30
Speaker 1: to invest in new shows, new content, and new initiative.
27:35
Speaker 1: The 25% discount on new annual subscriptions is an amazing deal.
27:38
Speaker 1: But more importantly, your subscription powers the work we do
27:41
Speaker 1: on our shows and through Vote Save America. So please
27:43
Speaker 1: help build a strong, progressive, independent media. Head to crooked.com
27:47
Speaker 1: slash friends or to the Apple podcast feed to learn more.
27:50
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back.
28:05
Speaker 1: He's the senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior
28:07
Speaker 1: political analyst at CNN. Ron Brownstein, welcome to Pod Save America.
28:10
Speaker 4: Dan, good to be back with you.
28:12
Speaker 1: We are recording this about 10 days from the election.
28:15
Speaker 1: Where do you think things stand right now?
28:17
Speaker 3: Well, I think, you know, pretty unequivocally, the polling shows
28:19
Speaker 3: that there has been some movement toward Trump in October,
28:23
Speaker 3: but more, at least in the public polls, among non-white
28:27
Speaker 3: than white voters. And as a result, I feel like
28:31
Speaker 3: we've kind of wound our way back to where we
28:34
Speaker 3: started the year. You know, before Biden got out of
28:37
Speaker 3: the race, his erosion with both Black and Latino voters
28:42
Speaker 3: meant that he was in a very difficult position across
28:45
Speaker 3: the Sunbelt battlegrounds. But the fact that his support was
28:49
Speaker 3: largely holding from what he won in 2020 meant that paradoxically,
28:53
Speaker 3: he was in a relatively better position in the states
28:56
Speaker 3: that were more white, less diverse and older in the
28:59
Speaker 3: Rust Belt, right? The three states that fell out of
29:02
Speaker 3: what I once called the.
29:03
Speaker 4: Blue wall, which we'll talk about in a bit.
29:07
Speaker 3: Harris comes in the race and Harris regains a lot
29:10
Speaker 3: of the ground that Biden lost with Black and Latino voters.
29:14
Speaker 4: But I think it's pretty clear.
29:15
Speaker 3: In the final weeks that she hasn't regained all of
29:18
Speaker 3: it and is not likely to regain all of it.
29:20
Speaker 3: It's almost an impossible mission to regain all of it,
29:23
Speaker 3: given how many voters in those communities do live paycheck
29:26
Speaker 3: to paycheck, kind of at the economic margin, and feel
29:29
Speaker 3: like they were better off under Trump. I remember thinking,
29:33
Speaker 3: writing way back, that if every Latino voter who said
29:37
Speaker 3: they were better off under Trump voted for him.
29:39
Speaker 4: It would be really difficult for Democrats in states where
29:42
Speaker 4: there are a lot of those voters.
29:44
Speaker 3: So Harris is, as I said, much more competitive than
29:50
Speaker 3: Biden in the Sunbelt swing states, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona,
29:54
Speaker 3: and Nevada. But it's not 100% clear that she can
29:58
Speaker 3: be competitive enough to actually tip any of them back
30:01
Speaker 3: in her direction, which means that her most plausible pathway,
30:05
Speaker 3: and it is still a plausible pathway, to winning is
30:09
Speaker 3: to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I mean, I kind
30:13
Speaker 3: of feel like we're ending up back in a place
30:17
Speaker 3: where we started the year, where it is essentially her
30:21
Speaker 3: ability to knit together just enough Hold enough of the
30:27
Speaker 3: large urban centers that are heavily minority, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee.
30:33
Speaker 3: Hold down her losses in the mid-sized cities, the Eries
30:36
Speaker 3: and Scrantons and Green Bays and Racines, Saginaw, and then
30:44
Speaker 3: blow off the doors in the white-collar, well-educated inner suburbs, Oakland, Chester, Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Madison,
30:53
Speaker 3: which is Dane County, and then the Wow counties outside
30:56
Speaker 3: of Milwaukee. I feel like her formula is very similar
30:59
Speaker 3: in all of these states. The national polls do not,
31:03
Speaker 3: I think at all, suggest that that path is closed
31:06
Speaker 3: to her, but they do show movement toward Trump and
31:09
Speaker 3: a need for her to kind of reset and regain,
31:11
Speaker 3: I think, some of the control of the dialogue in
31:14
Speaker 3: the final days. But that's kind of where I view it.
31:17
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, that she is She is, like Biden,
31:20
Speaker 3: largely holding what Democrats won in 2020 among white voters,
31:23
Speaker 3: maybe down a little among non-college whites and up a
31:26
Speaker 3: little among college whites, but netting out to a very
31:28
Speaker 3: close place, clearly suffering some erosion among non-white voters. And
31:32
Speaker 3: that creates more problems for her in the Sun Belt
31:34
Speaker 3: than in the Rust Belt. Paradoxically, the Rust Belt states
31:37
Speaker 3: are better because they're less diverse.
31:39
Speaker 1: Which is the opposite of what we would have thought
31:40
Speaker 1: through all the years that I was working in politics
31:43
Speaker 1: and you were writing in politics.
31:44
Speaker 4: How many times did I write that?
31:45
Speaker 3: You know, like I remember in 2012 writing the story
31:49
Speaker 3: even before Trump that Democrats had to break through in
31:53
Speaker 3: the Sun Belt because their eroding position among blue collar
31:56
Speaker 3: whites meant. that they could not rely on the Rust
32:00
Speaker 3: Belt to the same extent that they used to. I mean,
32:02
Speaker 3: I wrote that story multiple times, especially after 2016. But
32:06
Speaker 3: you know, I think if you're looking in fairness, I
32:08
Speaker 3: think it is very reasonable to conclude that the counter-mobilization
32:12
Speaker 3: against Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since 16 has
32:17
Speaker 3: been greater than the mobilization that he was able to execute.
32:19
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at what's happened in those states,
32:21
Speaker 3: Democrats won the governorship in 18 and won it by
32:23
Speaker 3: more in 22. They now have five of the six
32:26
Speaker 3: Senate seats Trump won them by a combined 80,000 votes
32:30
Speaker 3: in 2016. Biden then won them by a combined 250, 260,000
32:34
Speaker 3: votes in 2020. They flipped, was it three state houses
32:38
Speaker 3: out of the six and have a shot at another
32:41
Speaker 3: one in Wisconsin. I mean, basically, you know, in those states,
32:45
Speaker 3: the magnitude of the backlash against Trumpism in the growing
32:50
Speaker 3: inner suburbs, and we can talk about the demographic changes
32:52
Speaker 3: in these states, but you know, if you look at
32:54
Speaker 3: the four suburban counties outside of Philly, Biden won by 115,000
32:59
Speaker 3: votes more than Clinton did. I mean, that is a
33:02
Speaker 3: big difference. And, you know, he did better than her
33:05
Speaker 3: in Dane County and he did better than her in
33:07
Speaker 3: Oakland County twice as well.
33:09
Speaker 4: I mean, he won Oakland County, which is the big.
33:11
Speaker 3: White collar suburb outside of Detroit, by twice as much
33:15
Speaker 3: as Clinton did in 2016 or even as much as
33:17
Speaker 3: Obama did in 2012. So, you know, Trump has clearly,
33:21
Speaker 3: you know, energized a lot of non- habitual, blue-collar, non-urban voters.
33:28
Speaker 4: In the states.
33:29
Speaker 3: But he has moved these white-collar suburbs further toward the Democrats.
33:35
Speaker 3: And I would not be surprised if Harris wins most,
33:39
Speaker 3: if not all of them, by even more than Biden did.
33:41
Speaker 3: I mean, based on my reporting from being out in
33:43
Speaker 3: Oakland County last weekend, I mean, the issue is this
33:46
Speaker 3: pincer movement that she faces in these states. On the
33:49
Speaker 3: one hand, She is a woman of color who they
33:52
Speaker 3: have successfully painted as a cultural liberal with all these
33:57
Speaker 3: attacks on transgender issues and elsewhere.
34:00
Speaker 4: So it wouldn't be shocking.
34:01
Speaker 3: To me that if Trump ran even better in the
34:05
Speaker 3: small town, exurban rural parts of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin than
34:08
Speaker 3: he did in 2020, and we'll have to see how much,
34:12
Speaker 3: but it looks like there could be some cracking in
34:15
Speaker 3: those central cities of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, maybe not as
34:20
Speaker 3: much as we're seeing in national polls, but probably something
34:24
Speaker 3: given the frustration about the economy, particularly among black men.
34:28
Speaker 4: And so where does that leave you?
34:29
Speaker 3: That leaves you that she probably has to run even
34:31
Speaker 3: better than Biden did in the white collar inner suburbs,
34:35
Speaker 3: but that is totally within her reach to do. I mean,
34:38
Speaker 3: that is totally possible for her to do. She probably
34:41
Speaker 3: has to do it, but she can do it. No guarantee,
34:44
Speaker 3: but it's there. There's still that path seems to me
34:48
Speaker 3: very viable for her to win those states, which would
34:50
Speaker 3: take her exactly to 270.
34:51
Speaker 1: I mean, it is interesting that Trump has changed the
34:57
Speaker 1: makeup of the parties, but what he's done is he has,
35:00
Speaker 1: for the Republicans, he has swapped high propensity people who
35:04
Speaker 1: vote in every single election, midterm special elections, for lower
35:08
Speaker 1: propensity voters who have not turned out other than the
35:11
Speaker 1: two times Trump was on the ballot.
35:12
Speaker 4: Totally correct. Absolutely.
35:14
Speaker 3: And, you know, look, we know From 2016 to 2020,
35:17
Speaker 3: Trump's superpower politically is his ability to turn out low propensity,
35:23
Speaker 3: non-college white voters, right?
35:25
Speaker 4: He's done that very well twice.
35:28
Speaker 3: We don't know yet whether that's going to translate into
35:31
Speaker 3: the same ability to turn out low propensity, non-college, non-white voters.
35:36
Speaker 3: Because in polling consistently, his strength, I think this is
35:40
Speaker 3: less true in the Latino community, but certainly in the
35:41
Speaker 3: black community, his strength incremental gains from 2020 are primarily
35:47
Speaker 3: among low propensity voters, young men, right. Who, you know,
35:49
Speaker 3: who really don't vote, uh, by the way, you know,
35:53
Speaker 3: every demographic group you can think of turnout rates are
35:56
Speaker 3: higher for women than for men. Like, you know, we're
35:58
Speaker 3: talking about Latinos or black voters or young voters, especially
36:01
Speaker 3: young voters, young voters, the turnout.
36:04
Speaker 4: Gap is wider along lines of gender than it is, uh,
36:08
Speaker 4: for older voters.
36:09
Speaker 3: So, you know, Obviously, Democrats are nervous about what they
36:15
Speaker 3: are seeing in the national polls, and they should be.
36:17
Speaker 3: I mean, by historic standards, if she wins by a
36:20
Speaker 3: point or two, traditionally, that would not be enough to
36:25
Speaker 3: overcome the fact that the swing states are generally slightly
36:29
Speaker 3: to the right of the country. But that's a little
36:31
Speaker 3: scramble this year because– The swing states she has to
36:35
Speaker 3: win are 80% to 90% white. And her vote, like Biden's,
36:41
Speaker 3: is holding up more among white voters than among non-white voters.
36:44
Speaker 3: So I can see how Georgia and North Carolina can
36:49
Speaker 3: get more complicated if Trump really improves five, six, seven
36:52
Speaker 3: points among black men. But black men are 5% or
36:55
Speaker 3: less of the electorate in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I mean,
36:59
Speaker 3: college white women are three to four times as much
37:02
Speaker 3: of the vote. in those States as black men. So
37:06
Speaker 3: if we're talking about, uh, you know, college white women
37:10
Speaker 3: were somewhere between 15 to 18% of the vote in
37:14
Speaker 3: each of them in 2020. Um, you know, if we're
37:17
Speaker 3: talking about, you know, trading a three or four point
37:22
Speaker 3: decline among black men in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin for four
37:26
Speaker 3: or five point gain among college white women, uh, that,
37:31
Speaker 3: That would be a survivable trade for her, I think.
37:49
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the demographic changes in
37:52
Speaker 1: the states. I'm guilty of this all the time. We
37:57
Speaker 1: sort of developed this framework because for a year we
37:59
Speaker 1: were operating under a rematch of Trump versus Biden. So
38:02
Speaker 1: it's like, what numbers did Biden have to hit in
38:04
Speaker 1: these states to meet his 2020 margins? And then we
38:07
Speaker 1: expand that out to the next, right? So, you know,
38:10
Speaker 1: she's got to get to 60% Latino voters. She's got
38:12
Speaker 1: to win under 29 by 24 points because that's what
38:16
Speaker 1: Biden did or whatever it is. But what that analysis
38:19
Speaker 1: ignores is any sort of changes in the electorate since then.
38:23
Speaker 1: So you did some reporting for CNN with some new data.
38:26
Speaker 1: Tell us what you found.
38:26
Speaker 3: Yeah. So Bill Fry, the great demographer at Brookings, ran
38:29
Speaker 3: all this stuff for me. So all credit to Bill.
38:31
Speaker 3: I just, you know, I'm just a messenger. But historically,
38:37
Speaker 3: going back to the 1970s, we've had a very consistent
38:41
Speaker 3: evolution of the electorate over every four-year cycle. As a
38:46
Speaker 3: almost clockwork, we're talking about non-college whites, whites without a
38:50
Speaker 3: college degree, the cornerstone of the modern Republican coalition, have
38:54
Speaker 3: declined about two to three points every four years as
38:57
Speaker 3: a share of eligible voters. And people of color and
39:02
Speaker 3: college-educated whites have made up the difference, right?
39:04
Speaker 4: And that's been... That has been the story. You know,
39:09
Speaker 4: if you go back to Ronald Reagan's first.
39:12
Speaker 3: Election in 1980, non-college whites were two thirds of the voters.
39:17
Speaker 3: College whites were one fifth of the voters. And people
39:21
Speaker 3: of color were only a little bit, about 12 or
39:23
Speaker 3: 13 of the voters, right? And this is using census data.
39:31
Speaker 3: And you kind of fast forward to 2020. And again,
39:37
Speaker 3: there are different data sources about the electorate, but they
39:39
Speaker 3: all show the same general movement. If you use the
39:42
Speaker 3: census as kind of a common barometer, we went from
39:46
Speaker 3: the non-college whites being two-thirds of the voters, to a
39:50
Speaker 3: little under 40%, a little under two-fifths. They dropped from
39:53
Speaker 3: two-thirds to two-fifths. The college whites went from roughly 20%
39:59
Speaker 3: to roughly 30%. And the people of color went from
40:03
Speaker 3: 12% or 13% also to roughly 30%. So Bill Fry
40:08
Speaker 3: looked at the very latest data from the census September
40:13
Speaker 3: of this year, so like brand new, and found that
40:16
Speaker 3: essentially these trends are continuing. That if you look at
40:19
Speaker 3: the eligible voter population, which is all we can do
40:22
Speaker 3: at this point, we don't know who the actual voters
40:24
Speaker 3: are going to be. The eligible voter population, non-college whites
40:28
Speaker 3: are down another two points since 2020. And the difference
40:32
Speaker 3: is made up by roughly equal one point increases in
40:36
Speaker 3: the share of eligible voters that are college whites and
40:40
Speaker 3: and people of color. Now, what's really important for the
40:45
Speaker 3: conversation that we're having is that this change he found
40:50
Speaker 3: was more severe in Michigan and Wisconsin than almost anywhere else. So,
40:56
Speaker 3: I mean, he has in the data that he analyzed,
41:00
Speaker 3: the working class whites who are the core of the
41:05
Speaker 3: three point, two points, a little, a little over three points,
41:08
Speaker 3: three percentage points in Wisconsin and almost exactly three percentage
41:11
Speaker 3: points in Michigan. Very little increase in people of color.
41:14
Speaker 3: The gain is almost entirely, the offset is almost entirely
41:18
Speaker 3: college educated white voters. And then in Pennsylvania, the change
41:23
Speaker 3: isn't as big, but it's not immaterial either. The blue
41:26
Speaker 3: collar whites are down about a point and a half
41:29
Speaker 3: as a share of eligible voters since 2020. By the way,
41:31
Speaker 3: he sent me some more data, which I haven't written
41:33
Speaker 3: up yet. But if you look at it, I mean,
41:34
Speaker 3: the population trends in these states kind of follow this.
41:38
Speaker 3: I mean, in Pennsylvania, the two counties that are gaining
41:40
Speaker 3: the most population are in the Philly suburbs. Dane County,
41:44
Speaker 3: which is Madison, is gaining the most population in Wisconsin.
41:49
Speaker 3: The suburbs of Grand Rapids are gaining the most population
41:52
Speaker 3: since 2020 in Michigan. Normally, These effects, changing the electorate
42:00
Speaker 3: by a point or two, the composition of the electorate
42:03
Speaker 3: doesn't matter that much from election to election because it
42:06
Speaker 3: gets swamped by any changes in preference, right? I mean,
42:10
Speaker 3: the size of the group can be, the changes in
42:12
Speaker 3: the size of the group can be overwhelmed by changes
42:15
Speaker 3: in the margins among the group.
42:17
Speaker 4: But in a year that is this.
42:18
Speaker 3: Close and which these states were decided by 80,000 votes
42:23
Speaker 3: for Trump in 2016- 250,000 to 260,000 votes for Biden
42:29
Speaker 3: in 2020. This time, they'll probably be decided by somewhere
42:32
Speaker 3: in the middle. Even this small little thumb on the
42:36
Speaker 3: scale could matter. And by the way, I think it
42:39
Speaker 3: also reflects the reality of, you know, Harris's strategy that
42:43
Speaker 3: is aimed so clearly at those white-collar suburbs, including voters
42:47
Speaker 3: who previously had voted mostly Republicans.
42:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about that because she has spent much
42:54
Speaker 1: of last week campaigning with Liz Cheney. She has ads
42:59
Speaker 1: up featuring Trump former advisors who are attacking Trump. She
43:03
Speaker 1: made a big deal about Trump's fascism comments. I assume
43:08
Speaker 1: you see all of that seems to be directly targeted
43:10
Speaker 1: at this group of voters. Is that right?
43:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, totally. To button up the point, the the blue-collar
43:15
Speaker 3: white share of the vote is going down in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
43:18
Speaker 3: as it is everywhere else. But it is still higher
43:20
Speaker 3: than it is nationally, considerably higher, right? So, you know,
43:25
Speaker 3: as a share of eligible voters, the blue-collar whites are
43:29
Speaker 3: now down to about 50%, just over 50 in Michigan
43:33
Speaker 3: and Pennsylvania. And they've fallen under 60 now in Wisconsin.
43:39
Speaker 3: And they will probably be slightly less a share of
43:43
Speaker 3: the actual vote. than they are the eligible vote because
43:47
Speaker 3: college whites turn out higher, way higher than anybody else.
43:50
Speaker 3: Like their turnout rate is, you know, we're probably going
43:53
Speaker 3: to see 90% of eligible college whites vote. So, you know,
43:58
Speaker 3: if you use the census data, like for example, Michigan
44:03
Speaker 3: in 2020 was 51% blue collar whites, 29% college whites,
44:09
Speaker 3: 20% non-whites. You know, basically it'll probably be something like 49, 30,
44:13
Speaker 3: 21 this time. I mean, the actual tends to follow the, so,
44:20
Speaker 3: you know, you can't ignore working class whites in these states.
44:24
Speaker 3: You have to remain competitive among them. And certainly it
44:29
Speaker 3: is critical for Harris's to do everything she can to
44:33
Speaker 3: gain a little with the working class white women to
44:38
Speaker 3: offset what will probably be at least some decline among
44:41
Speaker 3: the working class white men.
44:42
Speaker 1: And this is, I mean, I think this is one
44:44
Speaker 1: of the things we lose to in these kinds. It's
44:45
Speaker 1: not just that you're going to get some people in
44:49
Speaker 1: these suburbs who voted for Trump last time to vote
44:51
Speaker 1: for Harris this time. It's that more people live there now, right?
44:54
Speaker 1: You have people who have moved from the cities and
44:56
Speaker 1: people who have moved from the suburbs in, um, To
44:59
Speaker 1: these places. You have in-migration. Some of it's pandemic-driven, right?
45:02
Speaker 1: People who don't have to commute to work anymore or
45:06
Speaker 1: people who maybe lived somewhere, like we live in California,
45:08
Speaker 1: who moved away because of remote work. There's more people
45:12
Speaker 1: in these places to help drive those numbers up.
45:15
Speaker 4: Similar, Waukesha, outside of Milwaukee.
45:18
Speaker 3: Now, the suburbs of Milwaukee are still the most Republican-leaning,
45:23
Speaker 3: white-collar suburbs north of the Mason-Dixon line.
45:27
Speaker 4: But they are moving, too.
45:29
Speaker 2: Right.
45:29
Speaker 4: Waukesha is the biggest one.
45:31
Speaker 3: The mayor of the town of Waukesha, the Republican mayor
45:33
Speaker 3: of the town of Waukesha, which is in the county
45:36
Speaker 3: of Waukesha, like Waukesha squared.
45:38
Speaker 4: He just endorsed Harris. Right. And this is the kind
45:42
Speaker 4: of the movement the Democrats need.
45:44
Speaker 3: Hillary only won 33 percent of the vote in Waukesha.
45:48
Speaker 3: Biden won 39 percent of the vote. Evers kept it
45:52
Speaker 3: at 39 percent of the vote. The state Supreme Court election,
45:56
Speaker 3: Democrats got up to 42% of the vote. This is
45:59
Speaker 3: the biggest block of votes for Republicans in the state
46:03
Speaker 3: of Wisconsin. So does Harris cross 40% in Waukesha? Can
46:08
Speaker 3: she get to 41, 42 like Janet Protasewicz did last time? Ozaki, Washington,
46:16
Speaker 3: the other wild counties are not as big, but it's
46:18
Speaker 3: generally the same story. Biden did six points better in
46:23
Speaker 3: Ozaki than Hillary did. And Evers did one point better
46:28
Speaker 3: than Biden did. Same kind of thing in Washington. Like,
46:31
Speaker 3: so can you shave the margins down there, blow out
46:35
Speaker 3: the doors in Dane, avoid a collapse in Milwaukee? If
46:39
Speaker 3: you can do all of those things, there are not
46:42
Speaker 3: enough people everywhere else, you know, for Trump to overcome that. Now,
46:47
Speaker 3: the other thing, the other thing that we should say
46:49
Speaker 3: is that, is that, you know, and I have, I
46:51
Speaker 3: have to say, you know, the kind of, we've been
46:52
Speaker 3: talking almost entirely about these three states. Because it seems
46:55
Speaker 3: to me that there is a big fall off. Maybe
46:58
Speaker 3: Georgia is still within reach for her, but I think
47:00
Speaker 3: these three states are much more plausible than any of
47:04
Speaker 3: the Sunbelt states, with the possible exception of Georgia staying close.
47:08
Speaker 3: But the other thing that's characteristic about the Michigan, Pennsylvania,
47:13
Speaker 3: Wisconsin is that they do have a lot of mid-sized cities,
47:18
Speaker 3: like smaller cities, you know, the Erie, Scranton, Eau Claire, etc.
47:23
Speaker 1: That's sort of like these demographic changes, the way the
47:27
Speaker 1: coalitions have shifted, that explains Harris' strategy. It also sort
47:30
Speaker 1: of explains Trump's because he's not trying to get those votes.
47:33
Speaker 1: He's not trying to increase his or lose by less
47:37
Speaker 1: among college-educated suburban voters. Where he's trying to find voters
47:41
Speaker 1: to make up the gap for whatever gain she makes
47:44
Speaker 1: is obviously jacking up turnout among his base. But he may,
47:47
Speaker 1: you know, who knows how close to the ceiling he
47:48
Speaker 1: is there because that's not a population that's growing, as
47:50
Speaker 1: you point out, shrinking, is with... voters of color, and
47:55
Speaker 1: then low propensity, younger male voters. Is that right?
47:59
Speaker 4: Right. Absolutely.
48:00
Speaker 3: And look, I mean, you know, I don't know the
48:03
Speaker 3: exact number, but I'm guessing black men are triple the
48:06
Speaker 3: share of the electorate in Georgia that they are in
48:09
Speaker 3: Michigan or.
48:11
Speaker 4: Pennsylvania, much less Wisconsin.
48:12
Speaker 3: I mean, Wisconsin only, you know, less than 10% of
48:14
Speaker 3: the vote are people of color. So, you know, if
48:18
Speaker 3: Trump is successful in peeling off, you know, four or
48:20
Speaker 3: five points of black men mostly on economic discontent, but
48:24
Speaker 3: also to some extent on these issues, or if he's
48:27
Speaker 3: successful at peeling off, you know, more really, more like
48:31
Speaker 3: 10 points of Latino men.
48:34
Speaker 4: And there it is both economics and culture.
48:37
Speaker 3: Well, you know, they are a big share of the
48:39
Speaker 3: vote in Arizona and Nevada, and the black men are
48:42
Speaker 3: a big share of the vote in Georgia.
48:43
Speaker 4: And that is a problem that is hard to overcome.
48:47
Speaker 3: You know, that's like a real hole in the hull,
48:52
Speaker 3: of the ship. Whereas in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it
48:57
Speaker 3: ain't great, but it's not nearly as threatening given how
49:01
Speaker 3: small a share of the vote they are. And, you know, it,
49:03
Speaker 3: it doesn't seem likely there's going to be significant erosion
49:06
Speaker 3: among black women.
49:07
Speaker 4: I mean, that doesn't seem likely.
49:09
Speaker 3: And, uh, you know, I think it is possible that, that, uh,
49:12
Speaker 3: Harris will even match what Biden did among Latinas, maybe
49:17
Speaker 3: a little erosion there. But the erosion in the minority
49:22
Speaker 3: communities is preponderantly, I mean, maybe all among men.
49:28
Speaker 4: And again, that is a problem in the Sunbelt states.
49:32
Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, I talked to David Binder before this, and
49:36
Speaker 1: he acknowledged there would be some erosion, although he thought
49:38
Speaker 1: she he did think it was quite possible that she
49:41
Speaker 1: would get to Biden's numbers among Black voters overall. So
49:45
Speaker 1: maybe you're swapping out. So you're losing some Black men,
49:47
Speaker 1: but you're getting some more Black women.
49:49
Speaker 4: Biden was already over 90% among Black women.
49:51
Speaker 3: So if they can match his totals among Black voters overall,
49:56
Speaker 3: even if just in these three states. Yeah, and presumably
49:58
Speaker 3: he thinks they can run better among college whites in
50:00
Speaker 3: those states than Biden did, right? And if you can
50:03
Speaker 3: avoid the non-college white women running for the exits- And
50:08
Speaker 3: then you're really just talking about, can you survive decline
50:12
Speaker 3: among non-college white men, maybe closer back to Hillary levels?
50:15
Speaker 4: I don't think she could survive.
50:16
Speaker 3: It going all the way back to Hillary levels, but
50:18
Speaker 3: we're not seeing that in polling. I mean, we're not,
50:20
Speaker 3: we are not seeing a big change from 2020 among
50:25
Speaker 3: either non-college whites or college whites. I mean, a little
50:28
Speaker 3: better among college whites, probably a little worse among non-college whites,
50:32
Speaker 3: but nothing as big as what we are seeing among
50:35
Speaker 3: black and Latino men in polling.
50:37
Speaker 4: The changes are pretty small. Now, you know, it is
50:39
Speaker 4: offsetting to some extent.
50:40
Speaker 3: All right. I mean, you know, she's gaining among the
50:42
Speaker 3: college white women. She's losing among the non-college white men.
50:45
Speaker 3: But it doesn't feel and it doesn't feel like it's
50:50
Speaker 3: a rupture or a fundamental fracture. And at least as
50:56
Speaker 3: we talk today. The pollsters that I talk to in
51:00
Speaker 3: those states, including Republicans, say, you know, we're not seeing like,
51:05
Speaker 3: it's not like there's a rolling ball down the hill
51:07
Speaker 3: among white voters. The vote among white voters in these
51:11
Speaker 3: states might be a point better for Trump than it
51:12
Speaker 3: was two weeks ago.
51:14
Speaker 4: Right.
51:14
Speaker 1: That's sort of where we are. Last question. Is there
51:17
Speaker 1: anything you're going to be watching for over the next
51:19
Speaker 1: 10 days here to hopefully maybe give you a sense
51:22
Speaker 1: of how this is going to turn out?
51:24
Speaker 3: As a pollster said to me today, it's kind of
51:27
Speaker 3: vain to to have too much confidence when we're talking
51:29
Speaker 3: about margins like this.
51:30
Speaker 4: Now, obviously there continues to be movement toward Trump.
51:33
Speaker 3: You know, you'd say, well, you know, historically, you know, elections,
51:37
Speaker 3: there's a little swell at the end and all the
51:39
Speaker 3: dominoes fall the same way. And that's a risk for Harris,
51:44
Speaker 3: but I'm not sure that's going to happen. I think
51:47
Speaker 3: the question is, what are we talking about at the end?
51:49
Speaker 3: You know, I'm persuaded by the argument by Mike Podhorzer,
51:53
Speaker 3: the former political director of the AFL-CIO, who has used
51:56
Speaker 3: data from Catalyst, whose folks you've probably had on here
51:58
Speaker 3: as well, to point out that there are 91 million
52:03
Speaker 3: separate human beings, not separate individuals, who have come out
52:07
Speaker 3: to vote against Trump or Trumpism in the election since 2016,
52:10
Speaker 3: which is considerably larger than the 83 million who've come
52:13
Speaker 3: out to vote for him.
52:16
Speaker 4: Or Republican candidates.
52:17
Speaker 3: And part of that coalition, what they call the anti-MAGA majority,
52:23
Speaker 3: what him and Simon Rosenberg both call the anti-MAGA majority,
52:26
Speaker 3: you know, are also irregular voters, low propensity voters. And
52:29
Speaker 3: the question is, is the final stage of the campaign
52:32
Speaker 3: unfolding in a way that says to those voters that
52:35
Speaker 3: there's enough at risk that they have to come out?
52:40
Speaker 4: And that is what would allow her to.
52:41
Speaker 3: Survive any kind of mobilization on the Trump side. Like
52:47
Speaker 3: I said, I mean, I think at least in those
52:49
Speaker 3: three states, I can't say for sure in Georgia or Arizona,
52:52
Speaker 3: but there's certainly evidence even there, at least in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
52:55
Speaker 3: the evidence is that the counter mobilization to Trump was
52:58
Speaker 3: bigger than his affirmative mobilization, but based on the results
53:01
Speaker 3: of the last eight years.
53:03
Speaker 4: And there are cracks in that counter.
53:05
Speaker 3: Mobilization, mostly because of inflation and frustration, you know, for
53:09
Speaker 3: people who are living paycheck to paycheck, but it is
53:12
Speaker 3: still available.
53:13
Speaker 4: That path is still open to her.
53:15
Speaker 3: So I guess I, for me, the question is, what's
53:18
Speaker 3: the question? Like, what's the question we're asking in the
53:21
Speaker 3: final days of the campaign? Is it, were you better
53:24
Speaker 3: off under Trump than Biden? Or is Harris too much
53:28
Speaker 3: of a continuation of the Biden presidency? Or is it
53:32
Speaker 3: whatever else you think about the economy or Biden's performance
53:35
Speaker 3: or what he did on the border, is Donald Trump
53:38
Speaker 3: a risk the country can't afford? And I don't think
53:41
Speaker 3: we know for sure which way that's going. Kelly kind
53:43
Speaker 3: of pushed it one way, but it would probably matter
53:48
Speaker 3: if other people who believe that, like Mark Milley, you know,
53:53
Speaker 3: Jim Mattis came out and said, this is a risk
53:55
Speaker 3: we cannot take. So yeah, I think we're just right
53:59
Speaker 3: on the knife's edge, but that, like the Lord of
54:02
Speaker 3: the Rings, you know, what was it?
54:03
Speaker 4: The way is shut. Like the way is not shut.
54:06
Speaker 4: You know, they're going through the mountain.
54:07
Speaker 3: The way is not shut for her through the former
54:10
Speaker 3: blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
54:13
Speaker 1: Well, that's as good a place as there is to
54:15
Speaker 1: end it. Rob Rousey, thank you so much for joining us.
54:17
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon.
54:17
Speaker 4: Thanks for having me, Dan.
54:23
Speaker 1: That'll wrap up today's episode. Thank you to David Binder
54:26
Speaker 1: and Ron Brownstein. I'll be back in your feeds next
54:28
Speaker 1: Sunday with a very special guest for the last of
54:30
Speaker 1: these episodes. And if you're a Friends of the Pod subscriber,
54:32
Speaker 1: I'll be in your feed again this week for a
54:34
Speaker 1: new episode of Polar Coaster.
54:36
Speaker 4: Thanks, everyone.
54:37
Speaker 1: If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more,
54:41
Speaker 1: consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at cricket.com
54:44
Speaker 1: slash friends. And if you're already doom scrolling, don't forget
54:46
Speaker 1: to follow us at Pod Save America on Instagram, Twitter,
54:49
Speaker 1: and YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and more. Plus,
54:53
Speaker 1: if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us
54:55
Speaker 1: a review to help boost this episode or spice up
54:57
Speaker 1: the group chat by sharing it with friends, family, or
55:00
Speaker 1: randos you want in on this conversation. Pod Save America
55:03
Speaker 1: is a Crooked Media production. Our producers are David Toledo
55:06
Speaker 1: and Saul Rubin.
55:07
Speaker 4: Our associate producer is Farah Safari.
55:10
Speaker 1: Reid Cherlin is our executive editor and Adrian Hill is
55:12
Speaker 1: our executive producer.
55:14
Speaker 4: The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick.
55:17
Speaker 1: Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from
55:20
Speaker 1: Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis.
55:22
Speaker 2: Writing support by Hallie Kiefer.
55:24
Speaker 1: Madeline Herringer is our head of news and programming.
55:27
Speaker 4: Matt DeGroat is our head of production.
55:29
Speaker 1: Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team,
55:32
Speaker 1: Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Phoebe Bradford, Joseph Dutra, Ben Hethcote,
55:37
Speaker 1: Mia Kelman, Molly Lobel, Kiril Pellaviv, and David Toles.