Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 370 - 10/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 370 - 10/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 370 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Thirsty Thursday. We had to wait a couple days,
0:38
but the NFL is back. That's right after Trevor
0:41
Lawrence had one of the greatest individual plays to win US a big
0:44
game as a dog on Monday Night Football.
0:46
I'm looking toward another dog here for tonight, guys.
0:49
So I pretty much gave it away, but I'll give you the full
0:51
breakdown. We talked about this a little
0:53
bit yesterday, so it shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but
0:56
going to have a full breakdown here for the Giants and the
0:59
Philadelphia Eagles as we kick off NFL Week 6 and then can
1:03
update some plays we've already made this year and also talk
1:06
about another NFL play that caught my eye.
1:08
So this is another situation where, hey, let's grab it now
1:11
before hopefully the line moves and drops too much and looking
1:14
at a dog with a hook and hoping that, hey, we grab this hook
1:17
now. And by the time the game takes
1:19
place, we're feeling good because this line is down to a,
1:22
you know, a flat number here at this point.
1:23
So of course, today is Thursday. That means we have also tonight
1:27
the Rhythm Rundown. So really excited to once again
1:31
host the Rhythm Rundown tonight live stream on Twitter at 6:00
1:34
PM Eastern Time. Myself and my buddy Kate Harper
1:38
will be breaking down all the games Thursday Night Football,
1:40
all the upcoming games in the NFL and college football that
1:43
are catching our eye with some good rhythm system matches.
1:46
Also, a lot of you guys are reaching out like, you know,
1:48
where your player props. And I'll be honest, I've dialed
1:50
back my player props a little bit this year.
1:52
Pretty selective here. Haven't mentioned a ton on the
1:54
pod. Really been focusing mostly on,
1:56
you know, full game odds. But we do talk player props,
2:00
especially in the NFL and Thursday Night Football on the
2:02
live stream. So if you are a player prop,
2:04
better feel free to tune in tonight.
2:06
You can just get right on Twitter right at 6:00.
2:09
You'll see my icon for my my bio, my photo.
2:13
It'll light U and kind of get lit U in red around the border
2:16
and you click right there and you get right into the live
2:18
stream. O you can follow me Josh
2:20
insights and remember rhythm is a fantastic AI driven betting
2:26
platform that helps us cash some tickets act like wise guys by
2:29
looking for discrepancy plays, which there is one here for
2:32
tonight. But if you do want to give
2:33
rhythm a shot, there's a 7 day free trial.
2:36
But if you use the promo code start 25, you're going to get
2:39
25% off. There's also these leaderboard
2:41
contests where you can just submit one of the models you
2:44
create. If it's the best performing
2:45
model of the week, you'll get 1000 bucks, no joke here, $1000.
2:50
Second place gets 603rd, place gets 400.
2:54
And then we also have our refer a friend.
2:55
There's a Discord channel. So I always want to mention that
2:58
Rhythm not only powers this pod and helps us cash tickets, but
3:01
there's also some great other features of Rhythm that you can
3:03
take advantage of. So looking forward to that 6:00
3:07
tonight and then I will be with joining my buddy Patrick Maher
3:10
tonight at 9:00 PM. Thursday's are always my big
3:12
nights here with multiple appearances and of course,
3:15
Thursday night sweats. What there's a football, but
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looking forward to that. And of course with Patrick, we
3:21
kind of get into all kinds of things.
3:22
It's it's 99% betting, but sometimes we'll go on a tangent.
3:25
So I always enjoy joining my buddy Patrick.
3:28
And I will mention there's a lot going on here.
3:29
Like there are some college football games tonight.
3:31
There was one I was leaning on a bit.
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It's actually a couple that kind of caught my eye.
3:35
There is some Major League Baseball, some do or die games
3:38
here in the postseason. We do have a full slate of NHL
3:42
action. So I'm just going to stick with
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NFL, but just remember we have other sports going on and we'll
3:47
be hitting on them if if games really pop for us.
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Now looking back toward last night, unfortunately our our win
3:54
streak to start the week came to an end.
3:55
Oh, and 1 - 1 unit played the Yankees and the Yankees let us
4:00
down, as David Ortiz likes to say.
4:01
The Yankees lose. So unfortunately that was a play
4:05
that didn't come through for us. And really the frustrating part
4:08
is that that situation has been really good historically in this
4:11
year. So that Steam move toward a
4:13
favorite, like if you're getting $0.15 or more of Steam, you've
4:16
been really, really good historically in this season.
4:19
And obviously, the Yankees going from -155 up to like -175 they
4:24
fit the bill, but they really couldn't get anything going
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offensively. Schlittler didn't really pitch
4:29
that poorly, but they brought in Devin Williams.
4:31
He gave up A2 run single and that was kind of the end of
4:34
that. So couldn't get our Yankees
4:35
play. But a little silver lining.
4:38
We talked last night about the Boston Bruins.
4:41
They're over 79 1/2 point total. And I watched that game as a
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Bruins fan because I'm like, oh, we got a lot of new players.
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I want to figure out like, you know who's who's number, you
4:50
know, 84 Tanner Genoa, like I need to learn this new team.
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And they went into Washington as a + 155 dog and they won three
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to 1. So for over 79 and half win
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total, we needed eighty points. Now we only need 78 points.
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So it was a nice there nice start there for the Bruins.
5:09
With that being said, all NFL on the pod today, guys going to
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have a full breakdown here for Thursday night.
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I got one additional play coming up here that I want to talk
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about and walk through and then a quick update on our other NFL
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and college plays for this weekend.
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So setting the stage here tonight, get your Prime Video
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ready because we got Philly and the New York Giants kick off
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8:15 PM Eastern Time tonight. Setting the stage for this one.
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The Eagles come in four and one just lost to the Broncos though
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21 to 17 losing outright as a 4 1/2 point home favorite.
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That was music to my ears because we had the points there
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with the Broncos had a big comeback there late in the
5:44
fourth quarter. You know the G men, one in four
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lost to the Saints 2614 didn't cover as a 2 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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Again, fine by me. I am on the under 5 and half win
5:54
total for for the the Saints. So don't win too many games, but
5:59
that was a late ad for me. Dog to fave line move.
6:01
So you might have had the Saints money line there as well.
6:03
But in terms of this match up here for tonight, this game open
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with Philly listed as a 7 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
6:09
And the public clearly does not believe in the Giants and is all
6:13
over the Eagles defending Super Bowl champs.
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So 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk
6:20
with Philadelphia. However, even though you're
6:22
getting nearly 80% of tickets on Philly, Philly is not moving up
6:26
-7 1/2 up to -8 - 8 1/2 - 9. No, the line is stayed right
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where it's at. So Philly, despite this huge,
6:34
huge lopsided support from the public, open -7 1/2, still -7
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1/2. And then if we dig a little
6:40
deeper, you pay attention to the juice.
6:42
One cool thing you can do if you want to give Odds Logic a shots,
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great live odds page. Remember Odds logic.com/josh 123
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but you can tap the just single click on any box that's showing
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the current odds for a game that'll pull up the whole line
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history. So a box will pop up and show
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you all the moves in between. And that can be really, really
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illuminating because on the one hand, I want to see you know, it
7:06
open seven half, it's still 7 half.
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But did it touch eight, then it touch 7?
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Where's the juice? Well, a closer look at this one
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shows all juice liability on the G men because the Giants are
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plus 7 1/2 -, 115 or -120 So Publix all over Philly.
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Why are the odds makers number one not moving the line further
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toward Philly? And then #2 why are they giving
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you a cheap juice price to go Philly -7 1/2 at plus 100 or -1
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O 5? Seems too good to be true,
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right? Isn't the public, you know this
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again, I kind of argue with people over the term a trap
7:37
game. There's no such thing.
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The odds makers are setting a line based on their adjustments
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and their power ratings, and they're not like trying to dupe
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the public. But the public will kind of
7:47
almost trap themselves based on how they perceive the game and
7:50
the line. But think of it this way.
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Everyone bet in Philly you can get a -1 O 5 + 100 on Philly -7
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1/2. Again, that's something the
7:58
public will love. But yet as we are data-driven
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betters, we know to say that it truly shows liability there on
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the G men and we have touch seven at some shops briefly this
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throughout the week. So all movement liability has
8:11
been in favor of the Giants. Even if you look at just a
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straight up contrarian play, the Giants are only getting 23% of
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spread bets and a primetime game.
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So let's say the Giants open plus seven half and now the line
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moved to Philly -8 1/2. You know, you wouldn't really
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have much sharp action there. There's no line freeze.
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But you're in a great contrarian spot to bet against the public
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because on a Thursday night, every drunk guy at the ball
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saying. Yeah, you got a late with the
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Eagles. Eagles are going to win by 10 or
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more. However, we are betting it's the
8:41
public and getting that smart money in the form of a reverse
8:44
line move or line freeze in favor of the G men.
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Now only 23% of bets on the Giants at DraftKings, so they're
8:51
very contrarian. But take a look at Circa.
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This is 1 good advantage when you have a visen.com Pro
8:57
membership. Remember, I am also a betting
8:59
analyst at the center at the Sharp board every day.
9:01
But when you become a Visen Pro member, you get both DraftKings
9:04
and Circa splits. So DraftKings I always look at,
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OK, that's where the public is because it's the most along with
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FanDuel, the top 2 or you know, one or two most heavily bet
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public books tells you the barometer of where the public
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is. You can take the temperature on
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all the average Joe bettors, but at Circa they cater to wise
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guys. They don't set limits.
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So at Circa, listen to this. New York only getting 22% of
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spread bets, also contrarian, but 79% of spread dollars.
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That is a huge low bets, higher dollar split telling us all
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those big wagers out in Vegas in the desert are playing the
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Giants in the points. Now we layer in some system
9:40
matches. So if we've identified the line
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freeze, some reverse line movement in terms of the juice
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and touching 7, we're sharp contrarian low bets, higher
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dollars. Then we get to the system
9:51
matches. Here I have 6 system matches on
9:53
the Giants. One would be just classic
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primetime dogs. Primetime dogs have treated us
9:57
pretty good. Just got the Jags.
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We got the Patriots Sunday night.
10:01
There's been a great angle historically.
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It came back to earth a little bit last year, but in this spot,
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primetime dogs 11 and five against the spread this season,
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69% and they are 152 and 131 ATS. 54% with a 3% ROI since
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2020. And a lot of people will scoff
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at 54% again, doesn't seem very impressive.
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But remember, 52.38% is your break even point with -110 two.
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So 54% on a prime time dog system match, again, you're
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getting at 3:00 every week, Monday night, Thursday night,
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Sunday night, it's a pretty good ROI. 3%.
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Listen to this though. If you look at prime time dogs
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that are the quote UN quote, big dogs, the Bernese Mountain dogs,
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you know, the, you know, the, the big boys 6 1/2 points or
10:46
more prime time dog, they're 58 and 39 ATS 60% with a 15% ROI
10:52
since 2020. So prime time dogs been good,
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but even better have been the big prime time dogs Getting 6
10:58
1/2 or more giants would also be that classic divisional dog
11:02
system match. So the built in familiarity
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levels the playing field benefits the team getting
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points. Divisional dogs since 2019 are
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316 and 273 against the spread. 54 percent, 3% ROI giants would
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also be a correlative betting big dog low total.
11:19
So the total in this one open as high as like 43 1/2.
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You're down to 40 1/2. And why is that important?
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Because remember, an average total is around 45.
11:28
A high total is 50 or more. A low total is around 40 or
11:31
less. You know, once we get to really,
11:33
you know, late in the fall, early winter, that's when a lot
11:36
of the weather, you know, kind of can drop these lines,
11:38
especially with the wind. It's not really the snow and the
11:40
rain, it's the wind that causes low totals.
11:43
So we'll probably at one point see some like 393837 and a
11:47
half's, but 40 1/2, that's a pretty low total.
11:50
And if you're a dog getting 7 1/2 and a low total game of 40
11:54
1/2, that's kind of a good, good advantage there because the
11:57
fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for that
12:00
bigger favorite to cover. Lastly, you look at Jalen Hurts
12:04
in this spot. Remember, if you go back to
12:07
opening night, it was Cowboys and the Eagles.
12:10
The Eagles won the game 24 to 20, but there was that sharp
12:13
contrarian play toward the divisional dog Cowboys.
12:16
Cowboys ended up, I think more than I think they're plus 8 1/2
12:19
maybe what they definitely covered and only lost by 4.
12:22
And that was a spot where divisional dog, primetime dog,
12:25
but also Jalen Hurts as a big favorite.
12:28
When Jalen Hurts listen to this, when he's favored by 7 points or
12:31
more, he's only 5 and 11 against the spread, 31%.
12:36
And believe it or not, the last 10 times where he's favored by 7
12:40
or more, he's one and nine against the spread.
12:43
So again, you have not only a lot of indicators on the Giants,
12:47
super contrarian low bets, higher dollars at Circa line
12:50
freeze, RLM, juiced up, primetime dog, primetime big
12:54
dog, divisional dog, dog low total.
12:56
But then you also have a bet against with Philly with Jalen
12:59
Hurts. Typically being a guy really
13:02
doesn't cover these big numbers. He'll typically win these games,
13:05
which again, if you tell me you want to tease Philly down 7 1/2
13:08
to 1 1/2, I really can't argue with that because you are going
13:11
through a couple key numbers. But this is typically a spot
13:15
where again, Hertz wins but doesn't cover.
13:17
So we built this big case here to take the Giants plus 7 1/2.
13:22
And then I have two other factors that are hopefully
13:25
adding some some feathers in the cap of this G Men play. 1 is
13:28
that our friends at Rhythm have the Giants plus 5.6.
13:33
So not only is this a Green Star recommended play, but it's
13:36
almost a 2 point full 2 point advantage here or edge advantage
13:41
over the books in favor of the G men.
13:42
Rhythm says it should be about 5 1/2.
13:44
You're getting 7 1/2 and it is a again, Green Star sharp
13:48
recommended play. And then lastly, our friends at
13:51
Juice Reel, our buddy Robo Jackson, we both went down on
13:54
the Yankees last night, but one of the two best bet picks
13:57
tonight for Robo Jackson. The Juice Reel AI bot puts out
14:00
two best bets every day. They come out at noon.
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One of the two is on Giants plus 7 1/2.
14:06
So add it all up here, guys. I'm taking the Giants plus 7 1/2
14:09
here tonight. Again, you can shop around.
14:11
It looks like at both Bed MGM and Fanatics, you can get plus 7
14:15
1/2 at -110 A lot of books are -115 -, 120 though.
14:19
And I do see two books that are down to seven.
14:22
So try to get the lowest juice possible.
14:24
But we pretty much built a a pretty good case here to back
14:26
the G men and the points. So let's go G men plus 7 1/2.
14:31
That's what I'm sweating tonight.
14:32
Also, just wanted to mention the total because it looks pretty
14:35
sharp toward the under. So if you are thinking of maybe
14:38
teasing down Philly -7 1/2 down to 1 1/2.
14:41
Again, I'm going Giants in the points, but you can make a case
14:43
for that if you need another leg to that teaser.
14:46
I consider taking this total up, you know, 40 1/2 up to 46 1/2
14:52
because we've seen some pretty, you know, sizable movement
14:54
toward this under. Again, it opened as high as 43
14:57
1/2. It's down to 40 1/2, I believe.
15:00
When I went to bed last night, I think it was 41.
15:03
So it's it's dropped even further here over the last 24
15:06
hours or so. But if you look at the splits,
15:09
public is hammering the over 73% of bets at DraftKings, 65% of
15:14
bets at Circa are playing the over, yet the total fell.
15:17
So if the public like the over 43 1/2, why are the odds makers
15:20
saying, oh, you like that over here?
15:22
How about you take over 40 1/2. They're dropping this number
15:25
even though the public is going over.
15:27
So it looks like some smart money on the under and you do
15:30
have some other system matches here.
15:31
Outdoor divisional unders, they're 11 and 8 so far this
15:35
year, 58%. They're 310 and two 6054% with a
15:39
5% ROI since 2017. And when the total drops at
15:43
least a full point in a divisional game, the under is 8
15:46
and six this year, 57% and it's 95 and 7656% with a 7% ROI since
15:54
2022. And then primetime unders,
15:56
they're 9:00 and 9:00 this year, you're 50%, you're right down
15:59
the middle. But they're actually really good
16:01
historically. Since 2020, primetime unders are
16:03
199 and one, 4558 percent, 11% ROI when the total falls at
16:09
least a full point in a prime time game, the under is 95 and
16:13
6261 percent, 16% ROI since 2019.
16:18
It's not a huge weather play. You know, you look at the the
16:21
forecast here at MetLife, you're looking at around low 50s, high
16:24
40s. It's actually like perfect
16:26
football weather, but it's going to be clear skies in kind of
16:30
mild 5 to 7 mile per hour wind. So it's not a huge windy under
16:33
system match, but definitely the total is falling here.
16:36
So if you like the under, I'm not going to argue with you.
16:39
I'm laying off because I like the tote.
16:41
I like the side better. And I also feel like if I'm
16:43
going under 40 1/2, I'm kind of getting the worst of it.
16:46
If you told me you got anything a little bit higher than that,
16:48
you're sitting on some good CLV. But yeah, either way, guys, my
16:51
one play tonight. Let's see if another primetime
16:54
dog can bark for us. I got the G Men plus 7 1/2 now.
16:58
I wanted to just kind of update some games here upcoming this
17:01
weekend. We'll have our full best bet
17:02
card for tomorrow. We've already put in pocket at
17:06
least some plays that I talked about earlier this week.
17:08
Carolina plus 3 1/2. Remember, the public is all over
17:11
the Dallas Cowboys that you've seen the Cowboys fall from -3
17:15
1/2 down to -3 and the importance of getting the best
17:19
price. You can still get plus 3 1/2.
17:21
Right now it's it's juiced up -130 but you can still get plus
17:25
3 1/2 of the hook at ESPN bet. Also, in addition to Carolina,
17:30
got Miami plus 4 1/2. Similar situation here.
17:34
Public all over the Chargers. They open -5 1/2, but now the
17:37
sun is down to 4 1/2. I was kind of debating because I
17:41
was able to get plus 4 1/2. I think it was a -1 O five.
17:45
Let me just double check here. Yeah -1 O 5.
17:49
But I did notice that you could have bought it up to plus.
17:52
I think it was 5 1/2 at at -130 I was a little juicy for me.
17:57
End up going just plus 4 1/2 here.
17:59
But there's no more -1 O fives. But there are at FanDuel and and
18:02
bet MGM plus 4 1/2 - 115 -, 120. So you can still get the four
18:06
and a half there with the Dolphins.
18:09
Also the Chiefs, I bet the Chiefs is just a razor sharp,
18:13
disgusting primetime matchup where public is all over
18:16
Detroit. But line move to the chiefs -1
18:19
now up to -2 -. 2 1/2. So I got the money line -135 on
18:23
Kansas City, but I wanted to add one more bet because there's a
18:27
game that is coming up on Monday.
18:30
I noticed there's two Monday Night Football games and they're
18:32
both at basically 4 1/2. But the play that I made was the
18:35
Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons are hosting
18:39
the Buffalo Bills on Monday night and the public is all over
18:42
the Bills right now. 80% of spread bets are laying the
18:46
points of Buffalo. However, as a classic signature
18:50
play for us on the on the podcast Publix all over Buffalo
18:54
lines falling to Atlanta. So Buffalo went from -5 1/2 all
18:58
the way down to -4 1/2. So we've seen this line move in
19:02
favor of Atlanta. And I was looking at a lot of
19:05
the juice right now on Atlanta and I was figuring, hey, I want
19:09
to get this 4 1/2 before it falls.
19:13
And pretty much that is available right now.
19:16
Now, if you look at this spot as just a straight up contrarian
19:19
play, you know, that's obviously a great situation.
19:22
But also it'd be a primetime dog who which again, as you
19:25
mentioned earlier, primetime dogs are 11 and five against the
19:28
spread so far this season. And you also look at the rest
19:33
advantage here when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons because the
19:36
Atlanta Falcons last played on the 28th of September.
19:39
They beat Washington 3427. Bills just played the Patriots
19:43
in a divisional game on Sunday night.
19:45
So you have a rest versus tired advantage in favor of Atlanta.
19:48
So again, you want to tease Atlanta up 4 1/2 to 10 1/2, Go
19:52
through the seven and the ten. I'm not going to argue with you
19:53
there, but I wanted to get this one in because I'd hate to see
19:57
it fall to four between now and Monday.
19:59
So no, it's kind of a ways away. But I did put in the Atlanta
20:01
Falcons plus 4 1/2. I forgot to mention this to only
20:05
20% bets on Atlanta, but 55% of dollars on the Falcons here.
20:10
So maybe this is a three or four point win by Buffalo, but
20:13
hopefully we can cash with the hook.
20:14
I did add the Atlanta Falcons Monday night.
20:17
That's the early, that's the early game on Monday at football
20:20
because there's Chicago and Washington coming up later. 8:15
20:25
We added the Falcons there plus 4 1/2 real quick.
20:29
Just college. Didn't really mention this, but
20:32
I'm still looking at the plays that we talked about.
20:34
Missouri plus 3 1/2 against Alabama.
20:37
It's the most heavily bet game of the weekend.
20:39
Alabama open minus I think as high as 6 1/2.
20:42
Five and a half. They're down to 3 1/2 or three.
20:44
Got to get the hook there. 3 1/2 with Mizzou.
20:47
Also took plus seven half with Indiana.
20:50
They were as high as plus 10 1/2 down to 7 1/2.
20:52
And then USC on ranked first ranked line move toward USC -1
20:58
half to -2 1/2 even though Publix on Michigan.
21:00
So still looking at Mizzou, Indiana and Michigan.
21:04
And again, I could have added a bunch of plays here.
21:07
I was actually D Ming someone earlier and they were talking
21:10
about how, you know, they had like all these bets this week
21:13
and they had a rough week and they're really in the hole,
21:15
which again has happened to all of us.
21:17
And I kind of tried to explain like, Hey, I number one, I I
21:20
know your pain. That used to be me when I was in
21:22
my early 20s, I would have 1015 NFL bets a week.
21:26
I would have 5 to 7 bets per night.
21:29
I think less is more, you know, when you dial it back, you know,
21:32
you, you protect your units, which is always important.
21:35
But to me, don't force too many plays.
21:38
Like I could have added a baseball play today.
21:40
I could have had a hockey play. There were some college football
21:43
games that caught my eye. But I think less is more,
21:46
especially when you feel like you got an edge, you'd rather go
21:49
one and O then maybe have, you know, 3 plays and go one and two
21:52
and have a losing night. So again, I have a chapter in my
21:55
book, The NFL Sharpening Playbook that makes the kind of
21:59
joke a little bit. But you know, if you have one
22:01
glass of wine a night, that's fine.
22:03
A lot of people even say like doctors say red glass of red
22:06
wines, you know, good for your health, good for your heart.
22:08
You have 510 glasses of wine a night, you're going to be in
22:11
trouble before you know it. So to me, I've always felt less
22:14
is more. But either way, guys, Giants
22:16
plus 7 1/2 and then added that Falcons plus 4 1/2 for Monday.
22:21
So that about does it for episode 370 of the All Systems
22:24
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
22:27
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up, and I
22:29
always start first by saying thank you.
22:32
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
22:34
busy lives. Know you got a lot going on.
22:36
But you guys TuneIn every day to the pod means the world to me.
22:39
When we cast together, it makes me feel even better.
22:42
So if you'd like to help me to grow the pod, please could you
22:44
do something very easy, very simple.
22:46
It'll tell take you less than a second.
22:48
Just give the podcast a five star review on Spotify or
22:51
iTunes. If you'd like to leave a review,
22:53
a nice comment, click the follow button.
22:55
Recommend the pod to a friend. I'd also very much appreciate
22:58
that. Next, if you enjoy this style of
23:01
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting.
23:04
Not focusing on been betting based on our gut instinct, our
23:07
bias, what we think will happen. No, not betting based on feel or
23:11
emotion. Betting based on data, hard
23:13
numbers, line movement, split system matches.
23:16
If that's the case, you enjoy the style of betting.
23:18
You want to learn more about data-driven betting.
23:20
Maybe have someone in your life wants to get into betting and
23:23
doesn't really know the difference between a money line
23:26
and a total. Or maybe someone bets that you
23:28
know, and they lose a lot and they just have no philosophy.
23:31
It's just, you know, throwing darts based on your, your, your
23:33
feeling, you know, you should do, you should go to Amazon.com,
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type in the NFL sharp betting playbook.
23:40
That's my new book came out almost exactly 2 months ago.
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It'll be two months ago, I think on Monday came out August 12th
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or I guess Sunday. But it's got everything I've
23:49
learned in the betting industry and how to approach the NFL from
23:52
a day driven perspective. I wrote another book called the
23:54
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
23:56
So if you want to pick up one or both of those books from
23:58
Amazon.com, you would make me happy, you'd make yourself
24:01
happy, you'd support the team and hopefully you'd learn more
24:05
about data-driven betting. So if you pick one or both of
24:07
them up, bring them to the sports book, I'll sign them for
24:10
you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
24:12
and we'll sweat the G Men Plus 7 1/2 tonight.
24:15
Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
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Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
24:19
apps. They help me win.
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They're going to help you win because they are data-driven and
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they're just another like if you're looking to bet a game,
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I'm looking at OK boxes to check offline movement, bet splits,
24:31
system matches, you know, all the other intangibles and X
24:34
factors. But then there's a box for
24:35
rhythm, which again looking at advantages or discrepancy plays
24:40
like rhythm has giants plus 5.6. That makes me more confident in
24:44
my in my giants bet tonight. If Rhythm had Giants plus 10.1,
24:47
I'd be less confident. Albor Rhythm is a great AI
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backed prediction. Obviously app that you can use
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to your advantage. I mentioned earlier, but use
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promo code start 2525% off, enter the leaderboard contest,
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refer a friend. Make sure you download Rhythm
25:05
and join the live stream tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time
25:08
and then Juice Reel. Juice Reel has so many great
25:10
different features. I'm going to kind of pass the
25:13
hat here. If you do enjoy the pod and you
25:16
want to support your podcast host, tip your podcast host, I
25:19
would love for you to do it by signing up to get the all
25:21
systems go official best bet picks from the Juice Reel app.
25:25
It costs $4.99 a week. So once you do that, you're
25:29
going to get every play as soon as I make it.
25:30
So when I put in the Bruins win total at, you know, midnight, or
25:34
maybe I put in the Giants or, you know, Atlanta, boom you as
25:37
soon as I bet that my books are synced to sports, the sports
25:41
books are synced to Juice Reel. You're going to get those bets
25:43
as soon as I make them. And again, 5 bucks a week for
25:46
all the plays. I think it's a pretty good deal.
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You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
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indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
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features, all available with juice reel.
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So download juice reel, download rhythm, give them a five star
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review in the App Store. Next you have a live odds page.
26:03
Well, if you don't, you need one and you really don't know what
26:05
you're missing until you start using one, because if you're
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going to be a data-driven better, you got to be able to
26:10
track the market in real time. So odds logic is going to give
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you all the games on the board that day, all the different
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sports, live scoring, live in game wagering odds.
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But most importantly, you can see which direction the market
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is moving. It'll give you the opening
26:24
column, all the current prices. You can shop for the best number
26:27
you can find that you know, 3 1/2 on the Panthers when every
26:30
other book is at 3:00. And also you're going to be able
26:33
to identify Steam. So when a line's moving and big
26:35
money's coming in, it gets lit up in red, which then you can
26:39
look for a book that is slow to adjust.
26:41
Maybe all the books are going down 7 to 6 1/2.
26:43
You like the dog, you see it lit up in red.
26:46
You see all the sevens fall the 6 1/2.
26:48
But then you notice one book still hasn't adjusted.
26:50
You can grab the seven. So it's really, really important
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there to help you get the best price.
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So if you're new or you want to give it a shot, go to
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oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
27:03
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
27:07
Next, do you have Novig? Novig is a sports betting
27:12
exchange. That means it's like a sports
27:14
book, but it's not because instead of betting against the
27:17
house, you're betting against other betters and you get better
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prices. So for example, I was telling
27:21
you earlier, I'm on the Giants plus 7 1/2 best juice prices
27:25
-110 but a lot of books are -115 -, 120.
27:29
I just popped open Juice Reel and they have Giants plus 7 1/2
27:33
at -1 O 6. So you are saving, you know, you
27:37
know, $0.10 of juice or more by betting through Novig.
27:40
You look at the eagles -7 1/2 plus one O 4, you'll get the
27:44
total 40 1/2 under plus one O 140 1/2 / -1 O 2.
27:50
So if you can consistently get better numbers, and when you're
27:53
betting to risk, not betting to win, that means you risk your
27:56
unit, you're going to get more back because you're getting
27:58
better prices. You can do that with Novig.
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So download Novig NOVIG and then just when there's a promo code,
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you got to put in Josh 123 that'll give you the 100%
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deposit match up to 25 bucks. So that about does it guys.
28:15
Episode 370 on a big Thirsty Thursday.
28:18
As always, I'll leave you with two final thoughts.
28:20
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
28:23
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
28:26
Sundown in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plainridge
28:29
Park Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash, and my neck of the
28:33
woods on the border between Mass and New Hampshire.
28:35
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
28:38
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
28:39
Where the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point,
28:43
You're going to walk up to me. Or jump in the stadium swim pool
28:47
at at Circa. You're going to walk up to me
28:49
and we're just both going to we're just both going to throw
28:52
that Yankees ticket and recycle it.
28:54
Don't throw in the trash, recycle it.
28:55
But we're going to look at our Bruins over 79 1/2 point total
28:59
and say good start. But either way, guys coming off
29:01
an O and one or A1 and OA great night, a terrible night,
29:04
mediocre night. Whether you feel like you can't
29:07
miss or you feel like you can't hit the broadside of a barn,
29:10
never get too high or too low. We're always grinding.
29:12
We're always playing the long game.
29:14
We're discipline with our bankroll management.
29:15
We're flat betting. It was actually funny.
29:18
I had someone tweet me. I wanted to give this person a
29:21
shout out because they made a really good point.
29:24
But right after the Yankees lost, this person tweeted me,
29:29
Mickey Baca, my buddy at southpaw 21786 and he said prime
29:33
example of why we flap that. So why is that a prime example?
29:37
Because Yankees were like -170 if you have bet to risk, first
29:40
bet to win, that means you lost 1.7 units.
29:44
You bet to risk, first bet, bet to win, flat bet, bet to risk.
29:48
That means you only lost one unit.
29:50
That's the whole point. If you're going to play a
29:52
favorite, you lose. You're only going to lose a unit
29:54
versus 1.7, which is when you can dig yourself a much deeper
29:57
hole. Set about does it guys.
30:00
As always, final thoughts here. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
30:05
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
30:08
house. If we can do that, find that
30:10
COV, we're going to be successful sports betters.
30:13
So have a great Thursday night, everybody.
30:14
I'll see you at 6:00 on Twitter for the rhythm rundown, 9:00
30:18
Eastern Time. I'll be joining Patrick on Mad
30:20
Dog Radio and hopefully the G men can cover this number for us
30:24
tonight. So let's go G men.
30:27
I would have a great night, everybody.
30:28
I'll see you tomorrow for episode 371 on a big Friday of
30:33
the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
30:36
rhythm. Good luck everybody, and let's
30:38
go Giants.