Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Indycar Bommarito 500 | Push to Cash Betting Preview
Transcript
- @f1capper: Welcome to the Apex Insider push to cash betting preview. ⁓ we got a lot going on this weekend. I got Monaco GP with F1, but that's neither here nor there. We are here to talk IndyCar. I got Mike here. We might have a special guest join us briefly. ⁓ we're gonna try to make this kind of quick. But Mike, what's going on, dude? @indy_bet: What's up man? ⁓ excited to excited to get a night race for IndyCar. I know people aren't happy it's kinda late, but come on, prime time. Fox is trying to get some views. I like it. And it's an open. @f1capper: I do too. I do too. And I actually kinda like it too because I play hockey on Sunday night. So I should be getting back right around the midway mark of the the race. So I'm I'll be able to sit down and and watch some racing, which is always fun. I like Sunday night matinee kinda like race like that. So it's it's always it's always fun. @indy_bet: Yeah. I mean seven o'clock, five hundred it's a five hundred mile race. Maybe seven or eight would have been better, nine. We'll see if it goes. Hopefully there's no weather. I haven't seen weather reports yet. But yeah, man, it'll be ⁓ it'll be f it'll be fun, something different. @f1capper: Yeah, no, I I I don't know if they actually are calling for rain, but we do have our guest. Let me just pause here for a second. ⁓ Tony has joined us. Welcome, Tony. ⁓ how you doing, man? Tony: Like you just mentioned, ⁓ trying to play that rain card and what's gonna happen and the real feel of ninety nine degrees, which makes qualifying a little bit ⁓ tricky coming up on Saturday. And will ultimately this be a race that runs Monday morning. ⁓ it's still to see. I would love to see it at night. You got the Indian X race and the Usec Silver Crown race beforehand, so cooler temperatures, more grip. ⁓ I think it would make for a phenomenal race. I just hope that we can get it in on Sunday night. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, no, we were talking about that ⁓ earlier. Someone was asking, ⁓ number one, we thought there was an actual repave, a new repave to the track. I don't know if that there was someone that put a com comment out there. I don't think that's fully official. Maybe you can confirm that. But we did talk about what is the the impact to the race being at night, you know, because you're qualifying, you know, during the day and then what happens and it's just exactly what you pointed out, which we we told to the users is you're actually gonna get more grip. So you're gonna see something different happen in the race than what you we're seeing in Saturday. ⁓ actually can you confirm that? Has there been a recent repave at all at this place? I didn't see Tony: Not not that I've heard of. ⁓ I mean not that I've seen. ⁓ and I think we would have probably heard, but I have not heard anything. @f1capper: Okay. @indy_bet: Well @f1capper: Okay. Right? Yeah, I there was @indy_bet: That was me. I threw that in the Discord. ⁓ @f1capper: ⁓ there you so you were throwing fake news out. @indy_bet: Well, I don't know. Now I'm now I'm I'm like I'm running I'm wondering where I got that from. I got it off of Twitter. Somebody said that the IndyCar asked for like some sections to be repaved with some bumps and then they the owner of the track went and repaved the whole thing. So that gave me a little bit of pause, you know, from a handicapped perspective. you know, on like, ooh, do I wanna wait maybe and see, you know, if this, you know, brings in a second or a third line or this affects the balance of the cars, like you repaves are a big deal. ⁓ when it comes to track history and and our betting history. So I guess we're gonna have to you know we'll put a caveat on all this. @f1capper: Yep. Yep. Well. Yeah, no, that sounds that sounds like a plan. And I know I want to try to make this quick. So I'm not gonna go through ⁓ Nate isn't here to join us, so normally give us the preview and everything, but let's just I'll quickly put throw it out there. There's gonna be 260 60 laps. I think ⁓ last year's winner was Kyle Kirkwood, actually. Out of all people, he came out and surprised us on this on this track. ⁓ so qualifying is gonna be important. You still wanna have track position. It is gonna be a little bit difficult to to pass. We'll see what the difference is gonna be in the impacts being at like my time, eight PM Central, s nine PM Eastern. ⁓ I don't wait, actually it's in Saint Louis, so it's gonna be central time. So anyways, ⁓ it the sun's gonna be down. So we'll see how that impacts in the race. But let's go ahead and just dive into what our picks, our plays are are gonna be going into the weekend. I know you in Mike, you have some for sure. @indy_bet: Yeah, let me go first cuz I got a run and then I'll let I'll let Tony I'll let Tony make you guys some money you guys can chat hot seats and stuff. So look, to me, there's two ways to bet this. ⁓ First way is you bet Joseph and you bet David. You bet the two favorites at three to one and that is your betting card. I think this could be Maluchas' first win. I believe Tony thinks that too. I listened to the Tony V podcast. I heard him talk about that ⁓ and I think he might be right. I think it would be kind of like racing gods. He's in a fast car. He's fast. He was fast at this track in a slow car. Now he's in a Penske car that was also always fast at this track. And then look, Joseph just dominates this track. Kirkwood just put an X through that. That was a fuel mileage win. That's a bunch of BS that I don't even count that as a Kirkwood win. This is, know, Penske should dominate here, right? So I think way number one is you put all your money into the 325, 350 that Joseph and bet Maluchish. 325 at Joseph. In any other year, if the guy wasn't struggling, it's like a gift. He used to be posted. I went back and looked. A couple years ago, he was barely over even money to win this race. So getting him at three to one normally would be an auto bet, but there's a little hesitation because he struggled and he's done dumb things this year. Way number two that I'm willing to bet this race, which is probably the way I'm going to go. I'm going to pick between Joseph and David. ⁓ And pick one of them and then I'm gonna take the units I would have played on the one I don't pick and put them on Pato and some McLaughlin So those are my other two favorites. I think Pato McLaughlin are getting some inflated numbers I've seen some seven to ones ⁓ they've been bet they've been bet down I believe I was able to get both of them in double digits early in the week at some small bets Like both of them love their top threes as well So yeah, so I think that's kind of the way I'm landing is Tony: Let me ⁓ let me let me throw something at you real quick. You talked about, you know, obviously the favorites in Joseph and David Malucas this weekend, which I think are obvious. You know, Joseph the foot kind of bothers me a little bit. Malucas has been so good there. ⁓ Caesars has the dual forecast up at both ten to one of Newgarden winning and Malucas second, or Malukas winning and Newgarden second. Obviously it's hard to call that, but Mike, would you sprinkle a little bit on there knowing that if those are the top two, maybe they're gonna be battling out? @f1capper: He just left for just a second. I think we had a problem with his his record. He's about to come in. Hold on, hold that thought just one second. Okay, he's back. All right. So Mike, he had a question for ya. @indy_bet: Yeah, I heard it. It was ⁓ the the dual forecast. ⁓ I think you're getting ⁓ I I man, I think I think it's smarter just to play the play the single bets and puts ⁓ because I I think I don't know what the number is. What did you say what the number was? Usually you're getting raped. Tony: ⁓ ten to one on tether one on either end. @indy_bet: Yeah. ⁓ look th that actually might not be terrible if I I I'm trying to do the math in my head, but usually, you know, true odds on those you're getting raked over the calls like a thirty, forty percent hold. ⁓ and look, it's five hundred miles, stuff can happen. If it was a two fifty race, maybe and they were splitting it like they used to back in the day. I don't know, but ⁓ yeah, so like I'm I'm I'm probably leaning on you know, I'll probably put money on both Joseph and Malucas to win. ⁓ and then I'll probably hit the top threes of Potto and McLaughlin at some at also probably the same number. ⁓ which means I may miss out on on a Potto or McLaughlin. But man, those are those are your drivers. Those are the guys that I'm keying in on. Those are the ones that have good history. You want to play long shots? Sure, Rasmussen, Ferrucci, Daly, they always get in the way here. ⁓ so, but ⁓ @f1capper: Nope. Rasmussen is banned in my eyes. That's it. I'm done with the guy. I don't want any part of his stuff. Maybe in head to head, I will I might flirt with it, but I do not I think he's just he's not shown anything to s to prove that he can finish a race. And and it's been like that. That's a common trend with him. And he's not gonna have my money back ⁓ backing anyway, in any way poor. Yeah. @indy_bet: Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you on that. I know people sometimes want to bet the long shot. ⁓ so have at it. But 500 mile race, I want the bit the teams with the best pit stops that execute with the best drivers, with the best equipment. So give me the Penske cars. ⁓ I think the Penske cars should dominate ⁓ and be right up front. And I do think this is a good Potto track. ⁓ though Pato has struggled, so if I had to cut somebody, I'd probably cut Potto. And just stick with my Penske guys. ⁓ I'm also a sucker for McLaughlin's new car. That's one of my faves. ⁓ so maybe I do that. So that's where I'm at. Tony: Yeah. Does does it change your mind that it's five hundred kilometers and not five hundred miles? 'Cause 'cause I mean, you're looking at maybe chopping it to to a three stop, maybe a four stop race there. And I this race just gets mumble jumbled. It really does. I mean, obviously as we mentioned last year, Kirkwood and the Honda on fuel mileage, but ⁓ you know, and Kirk would have tell you, as you mentioned, Mike, he he told me multiple times, like I didn't I kinda locked into that one with the mileage and the Penskeys all had troubles and obviously Joseph gets taken. Joseph was absolutely on rails, would have would have driven to a probably a almost a full lap win last year if not for the Louis Foster incident. But ⁓ man, I just you know, I I go back to the Indy five hundred a few weeks ago, Mike, and and sometimes those late race yellows that we know are gonna come, ⁓ could ultimately be the factor in in in deciding this race. @indy_bet: Yeah, you can't man, it's hard to handicap around that. Like look, J last week's a perfect example. We ha I had we all had the right handicap. ⁓ Nate, Capra, we were all over what should have been what were the fastest cars. And then Heck breaks loose and people start pressing and it would have been an easy top three for power. It would have been probably an easy win for Kirkwood if it wasn't for the yellows. Blow probably would have top three, you know, McGawkin was right there. So we would have made money if not for the the craziness. And then I think it just caused drivers to start pressing. but ⁓ yeah, I'm not I'm not gonna handicap to the cautions ⁓ here. I honestly I'm probably I feel like I'm gonna be sitting there Sunday going, Why didn't I bet more on Joseph at three to one? So I'm just gonna do it. @f1capper: You know, you know, I wanna I I wanna give you a count, I'm gonna give a counter to this, so I'm gonna be contrarian, and it's just but my mind's been like this, and this goes back to the same similarity with Rasmussen. Joseph Newgarden has still he's he's got all sorts of problems right now, right? Like we know like he has good history at on ovals and at this track, but I don't think that his odds justify that he Will be a top three or or an outright. Yes, I get it. He can be good. I've I'm there with you guys on that. But in my eyes, it's what have you done for me lately? And we've kind of seen the same mistake. Now, I do agree with you. Like Louis Foster's that's a terrible incident. Like he was on Rails for sure. Like we were all on New Garden that day, too. And that happened. You're like, you're kidding me. But what really triggered me is in the Indy 500, like he just made a mental mistake. Like this is a mental mistake that he made. And on top of that, he's hurt. How do I trust him at whatever it was? Three plus three fifty, four to one, whatever it is to an outright. I just can't do it. Like I would rather wait and and take the odds on Calci if I am seeing like we are a third, ⁓ like two thirds of the race and he's he's looking good. Like that's just my opinion on it. I just can't do it anymore. Yeah, I just can't do it anymore. I can't. @indy_bet: Yeah. Yeah, it's probably it's probably first or worst, right? For him. So well I'm gonna let you two I'm gonna let you two debate that. ⁓ I I gotta run. But I I think I think I'm gonna be on the other side. I think I'm just gonna kick myself if he's just rolling here. It's a courses for horses, as you say, track for hor whatever. You know, like in golf. I think he ⁓ I think he's just gonna roll. And if there if there's any indication of it, ⁓ Tony: For for me @indy_bet: when we get there through practices and stuff, that he's just the fastest guy. It's not even close. He's gonna have ⁓ he'll have my money. I know I'll just I'll be pissed if I don't have it that way. So he's still gonna get one more chance with me, but but ⁓ good luck. We'll see what happens. @f1capper: Sounds good. See you, Mike. Yeah, I don't know if you f you feel that same sentiment or or what, but I just can't do it anymore, man. I just I I'm kinda off that train. And I know what's gonna happen though, is that I'm gonna see him through practices and I'm gonna be like, yep, he's back. Here we go. Like I should probably take it. Tony: Are we forgetting that he's won two out of the last three ovals? Are we forgetting that he's won four of the last six at Gateway? I mean, I know three to one isn't the sexiest of odds for somebody like Joseph Newgarden, but even with the foot injury, I mean he drove the tenth on a street course ⁓ from the back of the field on @f1capper: No, I it was impressive. And that's where I that's just where I need y'all to like talk me out of this this mental view I am in because I I think it's just compounded over the the year. I know the the Penskeys have struggled so hard, but this is this is now set up for them. This is it's here, right? Tony: Yeah. And I think with Joseph, I mean look you look at the two of the last three winners at Gateway have started tenth and sixteenth, although we've had thirty two straight races in IndyCar where a driver that has started inside the top ten has won the race. As long as Joseph Newgard, I think, starts in the top twelve, he's certainly gonna continue to be a favorite. He knows how to close. He won Phoenix late on the strategy of coming in and getting tires. Yeah, Christian Rasmussen was on rails and probably should have won that race as well, but he didn't. Again, I don't like the three to one. I wish it was a little bit higher than that, but I don't see it going down. I just I think Joseph's gonna be right there. I David Malucas is gonna be right there. I think there's some value in the Potto Awards and the Scott McLaughlin's at seven and eight to one. ⁓ but you know, one of my favorite bets for the weekend coming in is an eight to one, and that's a that's a podium finish for Marcus Armstrong. You guys are gonna call me crazy, but this guy is Got it figured out on those short ovals. And obviously he was in contention to win the 500 and finish fifth. And six of the last seven oval races, he's finished inside of the top ten. You know, Armstrong could be there at the end, even if it is on field mileage. He ran well here last year. You know, at an eight to one to finish on podium. I mean, it i I I would take that any day of the week. And right now, ⁓ you know, they don't have any top ten bets, but if you could get him at a top ten at minus two hundred, I would I would consider parlaying that with something as well. @f1capper: Yeah, no, I actually like that. And that's I I think you bring up a good point with Meyer Shank because they've looked like they've obviously with Felix winning the Indy five hundred, they've looked a lot stronger on these ovals. And I think between Felix and and and Marcus, like I'm pretty pretty high on them going into this weekend. And I actually that's one of the plays I like. I think they had him at eight and a half with Grid Rival. And that is one that I'm like definitely like almost there to push. I just it's been kind of hard to figure out who do who else I want to pair with. Tony: Yeah. @f1capper: ⁓ I think the eight to one is is phenomenal odds. I I I I do I think that may this should be about like 550, 600. ⁓ that is definitely one I actually really love Malucas out of all the Petskys. I think I think that is I'm trying to find a way to get ⁓ right now my odds kind of suck. They're at even money for top three, and I'm like, I just don't want to do that. But I I do I do love I do love Malucas at top three. Tony: Yeah. Yeah. @f1capper: I think it's gonna be crowded though, and that's why I like that pick at eight to one, is because it's a long shot for a reason, right? You talked about the the cautions that can potentially come out, the fuel saving, the strategy plays. And it seems like Meyer Shank is not afraid to change their strategy up to go against everyone else and get set themselves up for the win. So I think the eight to one is a is a nice shout and might have to actually get on on that on that one. So ⁓ that's your favorite one. Tony: Yeah, the the this race is kind of Yeah, this race is kinda up for grabs and we say that now and it'll be Malucas or or or Newgard in the dominating fashion. But I mean if if I'm gonna spread my units around, I think this is the race I would do it at, expect some chaos, you know, maybe maybe sit on somebody like Arenas VK to score a podium, which would be crazy. But at twenty five to one, we knew we know how good Connor was in that car last year for Hunkoes. @f1capper: I was about to say that was a crazy do you think he actually does repeat performance? Tony: You know, their pit stops have been better, which I think has always been kind of the concern for ⁓ the Hunkos Hollinger racing team. Obviously Renus drove to what a sixth place finish, although he ⁓ he might have jumped this this the restart there, that last one, but didn't get penalized for it. So ⁓ I mean, yeah, you look at a guy like Renus at a twenty five to one to finish on the podium, I mean @f1capper: We won't talk about that. Tony: For a couple small a couple small plays, like w like why not, right? I think there's an opportunity for this race to get juggled up late. Now it still might be Newgarden or Malucas winning, but an Armstrong or a Renus VK or a Scott Dixon at fifteen to one to win the race and to finish on the podium at a plus four fifty. He won it from sixteenth a few years ago on on fuel mileage. I mean, I would I I know it's probably not fun for the on the from the betting angle, but You know, if I'm gonna go into this race and I've got a hundred dollars to spend, I'm gonna sprinkle it on a lot of different places and you know, s obviously still kind of cover my back with maybe a little bit more ⁓ unit total on the Malucas and on Newgarden. But I mean, this is gonna be a fun race and I think we're gonna be down the stretch thinking about okay, there's five, six, seven, nine guys that have a chance to possibly win this with different fuel mileages. Does a let yellow come out? Somebody somebody's day always gets ruined by a crash at Gateway. Whether it's Malucas a few years ago, Joseph obviously last year, somebody is gonna have their day ruined in contention for the win ⁓ in a crash. So, you know, I think it's sprinkling a little bit throughout the field is always fun on one of these short tracks. ⁓ under the lights, I don't know if it's a full moon. There's a thing going around in the paddock that full moons mean chaos. And there was a full moon in Detroit over the weekend, so I don't know if we'll have one this weekend, but ⁓ I I I just think @f1capper: Always. We have the ⁓ the we have the ⁓ what's it called the the Northern Lights. I think the Northern Lights are happening this weekend. I don't know what that does. Tony: Okay. Well there you go. So that probably makes things a little bit crazier as well. @f1capper: Yeah. No, I I like and that's you know, that's that's why w we have the different styles of of playing and that's what that's what the whole crew does here, right? Like a lot of they like to sprinkle around. They I may not have that same style. Obviously blows kind of ruined that as well for me. But I think in a situation like this it's it's ⁓ you're not gonna get a whole lot after p post Indy five hundred and we're we're seeing that, right? And this is your only Only opportunity and I think the way that you're talking about it and just spreading your units out and make sure that it mathematically helps you get to the profits, right? ⁓ I think that makes total sense. So ⁓ yeah. Tony: Yeah, and and and I mean, you know, you mentioned Pelow, this has been one of his worst tracks historically, but you know, at plus four twenty-five, that's probably the best you're gonna get for him to win a race throughout the rest of the year, if you think about it. I mean, even a place like Milwaukee, I think he'll have shorter odds because he did win last year at Iowa. But ⁓ you know, I I think having having something that you know, I can't wait to see what Caesars and what other books have as far as matchups go. You know, there's gonna be a Malucas versus Newgarden matchup, you're probably gonna need a Potto McLaughlin. @f1capper: There there are already some matchups. So that is one of them. Lucas over Newgarden. ⁓ the one that I w I was kind of hinting to. So there's a quite a bit, actually. ⁓ the p Pado Award, some people took Pado over P Pelow. And the only thing I said, I was like, that my mind immediately was like, ooh, got to take it because of what you said. But the one thing that I I mean I he's done bad here, but after this race last year, he's been in the top three in every oval. Race since then. So except for Air Phoenix, ⁓ because he got wrecked out by by VK. So I'm it makes me like, I don't know if it's worth even taking Pado over Pelow anymore just because of that situation, even though the odds are favorable. If you can get the plus, you know, 110, 120, maybe that's worth your time. But it's I don't know if I wanna I don't I don't want to stand in front of that train with Pelow. I just do not have that appetite. ⁓ but I do have some of the others, so ⁓ go ahead. Tony: Yeah. Again, back to the Newgarden situation. I mean, the only thing that I could see that his odds would lower for this is he's probably gonna go out and qualifying. I I know he's top twelve in points, so he's not gonna have that late advantage when it's gonna be super hot. Maybe he qualifies eighth or ninth, but I don't I still don't see him if he qualifies inside the top ten not being the favorites, so @f1capper: Yeah, no, I don't think his odds change. I I think when it comes to the Penske cars overall, they would have to have a disaster for their their odds to change. But even then, let's just hypothetically say, you know, Scott McLaughlin or or or Joe, they they're in the you know, P sixteen, P seventeen, their odds are still gonna be nerfed because they know they'll just easily come back up the field pretty quick. They will use strategy, whatever it is, and they'll just get up there pretty quick. But right now, ⁓ it w I was tempted to take Scott. Over Christian Rasum Rasmussen, but odds are a little juiced, minus 140. I think that's probably one of the matchups that I would say I'm willing to take right away. But you have Kirkwood over Dixon, ⁓ minus 120 to minus 110. Dixon Malucas now has moved up to minus 135 over Joseph Newgarden. And I just something to call out was Nate got on that early. He got I think it was like plus 100 even earlier in the week on the Espm bet. And then yeah, Pillow over Pado. It's right now about minus 110, minus minus 120. So those those are the matchups. But ⁓ what I want to do is I wanna wait till we get practice data. I'd rather pay the chalk a little bit when I get those matchup odds, and they'll probably mix them up a little bit. But I'm also afraid because like you said, this is gonna ⁓ the there could be a yellow, there could be something that's gonna happen here that's just gonna wreck the field. Tony: Could be a red flag. I mean, rain is projected in the evening. Does this race get called early? Do they get to the halfway mark? Does this race get moved to Monday morning? Do they run the first 20 laps, 30 laps? And your car's different, you know, at 10 a.m. the next morning than it is at 9 p.m. the night before when the lights grew up. I I think I'm with you. Wait and see who looks good in that evening practice on Saturday evening, ⁓ which is right around the time that the normal start time would be for the race. So again, there's a lot of mumble jumbling is the only thing I can think of to describe. @f1capper: Yeah. Tony: it ⁓ for this upcoming race which is gonna be exciting for fans. It's gonna be entertaining for fans ⁓ to watch and hopefully it ends up ultimately being Sunday night in primetime on Fox, 9 o'clock Eastern Green Flag, and we have a hell of a race. But ⁓ there are a lot of a lot of different factors that play into the winner of this race and we sure as hell know whoever it is is certainly going deserve it. @f1capper: Yeah, no, absolutely. Well, Tony, ⁓ really appreciate you jumping on. Love your insights. We'll definitely ⁓ have to get ⁓ get you on for one of the next special races here. We got a l I think we only got like three more months now. So two more months even, so Tony: Well, I don't I don't remember I don't remember talking too much about Felix Rosenquist winning Indianapolis five hundred, so shout out to Felix. @f1capper: ⁓ yeah. I mean that was God man, that was actually an absolutely incredible run. I think that to me, I know, you know, the Hornish is what comes to mind all the time is that same type of replay. And that was like one of the most fantastic indie 500s. And I know 2024 was really, really good, but I obviously I had a 25 to one ticket, so that made it a little bit sweeter that it that actually hit. I felt like that was my first outright in in some time. That was a long shot. That's it. Tony: Yeah, I had ⁓ I had Malucas. I was all over Malucas and I sat in turn three and I was like, I'm gonna call any five hundred winner finally because I I'm usually not very good at that. I think I had Ericsson in twenty twenty two, but I was like, here we go, it's gonna happen. And then we saw one of the most epic finishes of all time, probably the most epic finish of all time. So ⁓ shout out shout out to our boy Felix. Love it, love it for him, love it for that team, what a great guy. @f1capper: Felt good. Yeah. It's so good. So good. Yeah. Shout Love it. Love it. All right, man. Well, you go ⁓ you go have some fun and thank you so much for joining us. Alrighty s ⁓ you like that. You like two and a half. Okay. I'm gonna be live betting it, that's for sure. Tony: Golden Knights over two and a half goals tonight, baby. Go Vegas. Yeah. Yeah. Big I'm I'm a lifelong Golden Knights fan since twenty eighteen. So ⁓ third third third third go at the third goal at the Stanley Cup. Hopefully see him win it for the second time. @f1capper: ⁓ no, you shouldn't have said that. I'm gonna I'm gonna definitely ⁓ keep it I'm gonna be watching for sure. Yeah, I am. I'm a s I'm I'm a sad stars fan, so unfortunate. Alright, man. ⁓ yeah. No. No to Avalanche. No. So. Alright, man. You take it easy. Tony: ⁓ you're a stars guy, aren't you? You stars guy? All good, all good. It's better than the avalanche. I see ya. Thanks for having me.