Latest / Financial Survival Network / Market Rise or Bubble Burst? - Bob Hoye #6331

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Market Rise or Bubble Burst? - Bob Hoye #6331 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the US.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Dollar is firm and steady, which you can get in
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes chronically firm.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: That's the term I age right, firm, and.
• 0:19
  Speaker 3: The federals there won't be able to depreciate it. I
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: love it.
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  Speaker 4: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you
• 0:26
  Speaker 4: get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to
• 0:30
  Speaker 4: thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
• 0:34
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• 0:43
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• 0:50
  Speaker 5: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
• 0:54
  Speaker 5: I'm your host, Carrie Let's with us now? Is Bob Hoy? Bob?
• 0:59
  Speaker 6: It's great.
• 1:00
  Speaker 5: Have you back on the show.
• 1:01
  Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I always enjoy our conversations.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: Back and forth Carrie, and we are living.
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  Speaker 8: In fascinating times for the financial markers, don't you agree?
• 1:13
  Speaker 5: Oh my goodness, gracious, well, we always knew what was
• 1:17
  Speaker 5: going to happen, but you know, you see it, You
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  Speaker 5: wait for so long and then finally it actually happens
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  Speaker 5: and it's like, oh, okay, so we were right.
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  Speaker 9: It just took a while, right.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, yeah, well, as you know, I'm a financial historian.
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  Speaker 7: Yes, and this our work in first quarter was it
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  Speaker 7: the Marcus would rise right through to midyear.
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  Speaker 3: Then we got to midyear.
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  Speaker 10: And said, hey, it's going to continue to continue right
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  Speaker 10: maybe into September and it could get rather exciting.
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  Speaker 3: So this we have and we're into September.
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  Speaker 7: I'll get in towards they ended September, but this is
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  Speaker 7: going to continue.
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  Speaker 2: It is turning into being a really outstanding rise.
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  Speaker 7: But on our technical work, it's not yet what we
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  Speaker 7: would call ending action.
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  Speaker 3: So we're going with the flow and let it continue.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: And we'll just see where it takes us.
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  Speaker 2: And it's been wonderful.
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  Speaker 3: Now there's science out there that there contion area.
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  Speaker 11: There's quite a flow of retail.
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  Speaker 3: Money into the market, which.
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  Speaker 1: Means you know, the small.
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  Speaker 2: Traders, and they they don't come into the market Adam
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  Speaker 2: fort Rose, they come in close to important highs.
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  Speaker 3: So we're but we're just going to stay with it, Cherry.
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  Speaker 7: It is a wonderful rise and we will be watching
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  Speaker 7: to see if this accomplishes excesses.
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  Speaker 12: And we're also aware that if Chapman's.
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  Speaker 7: Going to go wrong, it can be found in October November.
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  Speaker 11: But I don't know.
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  Speaker 12: I don't think that somehow this has got special lay
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  Speaker 12: the stock market.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, well, it just shows I play with
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: a little concept called comex GPT. It's like chat EPT.
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  Speaker 5: It's the AI that rigs all the metals markets, and
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  Speaker 5: lately it's been having a meltdown because all the tricks
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  Speaker 5: it's been using for the past sixty years to suppress
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  Speaker 5: metal prices manipulate markets are failing. And we saw that
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  Speaker 5: raid last I think it was a week ago, last Monday,
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  Speaker 5: give or take a day or two, where silver went
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  Speaker 5: down a dollar and then within two days it had
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  Speaker 5: more than recouped its loss. That's the kind of thing
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  Speaker 5: we were seeing back in the two thousand and nine
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  Speaker 5: and ten.
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  Speaker 13: You know, well, what my historical work has done is
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  Speaker 13: in a in a boom, you know, in the good times,
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  Speaker 13: silver will outperform gold, right, and it has been.
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  Speaker 1: But it also silver is the silver bugs of course,
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  Speaker 1: a rave about silver.
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  Speaker 3: All the time because it demonstery. You can show that there's.
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  Speaker 14: A shortage every year.
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  Speaker 8: But they overlooked the fact that silver silver has a
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  Speaker 8: hell of a financial component in it.
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  Speaker 11: Yeah, and of course that.
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  Speaker 3: Shows up in the gold silver ratio. And so this
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  Speaker 3: is another one of our little tools.
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  Speaker 2: If you get a sudden reversal in silver.
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  Speaker 3: Relative to goal, like gets weaker.
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  Speaker 2: That's a head It heads up on the overall speculation
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  Speaker 2: out there. But silver was in that sort of range
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  Speaker 2: pattern for a while and then you knew that it
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  Speaker 2: would just break out and.
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  Speaker 3: Jump up at some point. And we're just going with
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  Speaker 3: the flow here, but watching the gold silver ratio for
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  Speaker 3: any change. Now.
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  Speaker 9: The other one that we do is a little is.
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  Speaker 2: Also goals real place price, and the traditional way of.
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  Speaker 1: Doing that is it's deplayed it by the consumer.
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  Speaker 2: Price Index and that number only comes out monthly, and
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  Speaker 2: found out have a lot.
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  Speaker 7: Livelier way to look at it, and that's gold divided
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  Speaker 7: by the CRB quantity. And then we've also assumed that
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  Speaker 7: the CRB is the reasonable proxy for.
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  Speaker 2: Gold mining costs, and it is. I've talked to, you know,
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  Speaker 2: some serious gold miners in the business.
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  Speaker 7: There's another number out there, I can't remember what it is,
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  Speaker 7: but they agree with me that the CTRB is a
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  Speaker 7: rough pXY for mining costs and it.
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  Speaker 3: Has been acting well, but.
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  Speaker 2: What again, we do our technos on it, and it's.
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  Speaker 3: Been acting well. So one of the things that I really.
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  Speaker 7: Liked about this approach, Jerry, is that most pundits out there,
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  Speaker 7: they look at the gold indullar terms, and of course
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  Speaker 7: the thesis is the US dollar down, gold up, gold
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  Speaker 7: stocks up.
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  Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the
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  Speaker 1: US staller is firm and steady, which you can get
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  Speaker 1: in a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes
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  Speaker 1: chronically firm.
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  Speaker 11: That's the term I use corre firm.
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  Speaker 3: Or reserve be able to depreciate it. I love it,
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  Speaker 3: but that's all right because gold.
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  Speaker 14: Adjusts and in previous post bubble disasters, the gold stocks
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  Speaker 14: of course you go up and down with violent moves
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  Speaker 14: in the big stock market, but.
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  Speaker 2: Net out, over a few years, that real price going.
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  Speaker 7: Up makes the industry profitable or is improving profitability when most.
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  Speaker 1: Industry and commerce as suffering.
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  Speaker 2: The hard times of post bubble depression.
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  Speaker 14: So this is where we really like gold and have.
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  Speaker 2: Been considering it in the early years.
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  Speaker 14: Uh and most of the.
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  Speaker 7: Typically post bubble contraction has lasted for about twenty years.
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  Speaker 3: Sure, with the you know the usual three for your.
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  Speaker 2: Business cycle coming and going. But we set in the
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  Speaker 2: post bubble.
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  Speaker 7: Contraction, we reset resettion such as that there's and the
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  Speaker 7: recovery is are weak.
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  Speaker 2: But anyways, the whole thing shifts over such that most
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  Speaker 2: industry and commerce is not making much money and the
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  Speaker 2: gold sector is now.
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  Speaker 7: The market forces behind this.
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  Speaker 2: Carrier fascinating because you've had a great financial bubble in
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  Speaker 2: debt and in junk bond debt, and then of course
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  Speaker 2: junk bonds disappear, I.
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  Speaker 7: Mean they just bankrupt, go ball, bust and default, whatever
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  Speaker 7: you want to call it.
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  Speaker 2: And then you have a whole row of investment grade
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  Speaker 2: bonds that drop down into junks.
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  Speaker 3: So the lower grade bond becomes.
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  Speaker 2: A disaster, and so there's no place to go.
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  Speaker 12: But what we like one in a storm, and if
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  Speaker 12: we get a seriousancial storm, an ideal position.
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  Speaker 3: Even for equity people would.
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  Speaker 11: Be three to four year good grade.
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  Speaker 10: Corporate bonds, right because if you're in cash or cash equivalent, the.
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  Speaker 1: Treasure build rate it's pretty.
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  Speaker 2: Much treasure bill rate is about four thirty eight.
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  Speaker 12: Now it's going to go down to zero again.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, so you do want to be in short term
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  Speaker 7: instruments rolling over every month, forget about it.
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  Speaker 11: But this is where we like a street to four
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  Speaker 11: year maturities and good great corporate bonds, so you're going
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  Speaker 11: to get some decent income and then at the three
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  Speaker 11: year or four year maturity they mature par.
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  Speaker 3: So you get all your money back to speed.
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  Speaker 2: So that is a very nice place to be for
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  Speaker 2: fixed income people.
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  Speaker 8: And this when the storm comes in, it could be
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  Speaker 8: a wide disaster to stock market.
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  Speaker 2: So even even equity people should be looking at this position.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah makes sense to me.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's for sure, that's for sure. So how high
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  Speaker 5: is silver to go? We're going to see triple digit silver?
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  Speaker 5: Your prediction?
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  Speaker 2: I think we can approach that.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Martin Armstrong said fifty and then corrected himself
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  Speaker 5: later and said seventy five.
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  Speaker 3: So we haven't put a target that high on it yet.
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  Speaker 3: Just let'sten. We're on the trend, and the way we.
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  Speaker 2: Work is when the excess has come in and then
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  Speaker 2: we make the notes.
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  Speaker 5: So yeah, okay, well that's all right, that's all right.
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  Speaker 5: I want you to go out on a limb here, Bob.
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  Speaker 11: Well, you know, we've got our list of.
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  Speaker 2: Junior gold mining stars and we've been keeping that Okay,
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  Speaker 2: Well it was I think December twenty three when we
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  Speaker 2: put together that list, and there's been some very nice
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  Speaker 2: winners woo.
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  Speaker 1: And it's on the basis that equity guys can buy.
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  Speaker 2: The senior goals, yeah, and you're going to get average
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  Speaker 2: Middland goals will be a little better.
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  Speaker 11: And then let's tag in, of course to the juniors.
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  Speaker 2: And if you have a portfolio of say ten.
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  Speaker 3: Or eleven as we're recommending, h well.
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  Speaker 1: You can't get some terrific moves in these things.
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  Speaker 9: Sure, they kind of the way the bottom of a
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  Speaker 9: bear market, and that was a long time ago for Gold. Yeah,
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  Speaker 9: and first of all the seniors bottom they move up,
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  Speaker 9: then the middle of the months bottom and move up,
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  Speaker 9: and then finally.
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  Speaker 3: The play goes gets enough confidence to go for the juniors.
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  Speaker 3: So this is where we think it's important.
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  Speaker 2: A good way of getting a closure in Gold.
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  Speaker 3: Equities is the juniors.
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  Speaker 5: And anybody can get in touch with us and we'll
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  Speaker 5: give you the list, all right, So just send me
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  Speaker 5: an email kl at Kerrie lets dot com. I'll make
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  Speaker 5: sure that Bob gets you the list. That list has
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  Speaker 5: really been paying off handsomely lately. I like the juniors
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  Speaker 5: and I won't name names, but ones that have uplisted
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  Speaker 5: to like the New York American or the Nasdaq. There
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  Speaker 5: aren't that many of them, but those stocks now the
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  Speaker 5: funds can put money in, and it's a whole new
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  Speaker 5: echelon of investor. Have you got a list of them?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, we have, all right.
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  Speaker 1: I think there's eleven in the list.
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  Speaker 7: We updated every two or three months because some of
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  Speaker 7: them have moved in a couple of turkeys.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well you're going to have that, I mean, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: that's why we're too.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, I think the list is eleven. We thought it
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  Speaker 2: was a lucky number.
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  Speaker 5: Are we done yet?
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  Speaker 3: Or are we going to see?
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  Speaker 2: Uh?
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  Speaker 5: How much longer does this bull have to run? I mean,
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  Speaker 5: every good thing ends eventually.
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  Speaker 12: Keep saying we're only a few years into.
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  Speaker 3: A multi year bow market for gold stocks. Yeah, and of.
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  Speaker 8: Course they will be influenced if we get a major
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  Speaker 8: hit in the stock market.
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  Speaker 3: We knows, maybe next year.
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  Speaker 2: The gold stocks will sell off with.
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  Speaker 12: A major hit to the New York Stock Exchange.
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  Speaker 3: All right, so you know it well.
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  Speaker 2: And then there was a really good headline the other
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  Speaker 2: day about foreign investors rolling.
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  Speaker 7: Into New York to buy the New York Stock Exchange,
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  Speaker 7: and of course that was the game.
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  Speaker 3: In the summer of nineteen twenty nine. International money was
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  Speaker 3: coming into the.
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  Speaker 7: New York Stock Exchange because they were big stocks acting
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  Speaker 7: very well liquidity and all that.
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  Speaker 2: Sort of stuff.
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  Speaker 8: And there's a little vignette about Radio Corporate America if
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  Speaker 8: we've got time for.
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  Speaker 5: It period, Yeah, yeah, tell us, tell us please boy okay.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: RCA. Radio Corporate America was the big.
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  Speaker 10: High tech darling in the nineteen twenty nine market, and
• 14:09
  Speaker 10: they were.
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  Speaker 2: And then I had they went up to one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and twenty five dollars anyways, but the street was estimating
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: street dollars to share earnings, and this was wonderful. And
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  Speaker 2: of course it didn't crash down to about a dollar
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  Speaker 2: and a half and.
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  Speaker 3: Her innings went down to zero. But they eventually got
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: back up.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: To street dollars to share, and that was in nineteen
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  Speaker 2: fifty six with the Elvis Presley contract.
• 14:42
  Speaker 9: Really, and in nineteen twenty nine, who could predict Elvis
• 14:46
  Speaker 9: press me?
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: It can't, you know, it's impossible.
• 14:50
  Speaker 14: So they the story changes.
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  Speaker 2: So one of the oh here's another one, the eighteen.
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  Speaker 6: Seventy tree bubble, the big high tech stocks was the
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: Western Union Telegraph. So that was that was the high
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: tech stuff, and even more exciting for Western Union if.
• 15:13
  Speaker 8: They were providing the ticker tape into all offices.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: And brokerage offices and all that sort of stuff. So
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: so Western Union got a way up there.
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  Speaker 10: Now I can't remember the price, but I do remember
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  Speaker 10: the headline in September October of eighteen seventy three.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: After that bubble was over. Wow, And in the week's.
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  Speaker 2: Time it gave up forty.
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: And this was the big high tech darling.
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  Speaker 2: So I mean, giving up for a week for a
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: stock like that is devastating.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, this is true, all right, Bob.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: Well, hey everybody, just if you want Bob's latest eleven stocks,
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: and they've been performing quite well, shoot me an email
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. You can find Bob.
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: Just do a Google search. He's all over the web.
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: And hey, of course, ours is Financial Survival Network dot com.
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: We're now using substack, have done away with our website altogether.
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: It's working amazing. It handles mailing lists, it handles audio,
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: it handles the video, and also is a great writing platform,
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: which we've been writing a lot of things lately. And
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: we'll write one about this. Appreciate you coming on as always, Bob.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: We will talk to you again soon.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Good deal, we had some fun game.
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: Always be well, my friend.
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,