Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 36 - 5/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 36 - 5/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 36 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Friday. Our work week here is coming to
0:36
an end and the weekend is upon us.
0:38
And it's a big one, big weekend coming up here guys, because not
0:42
only do we have the Kentucky Derby coming up here on this on
0:45
tomorrow, actually on Saturday, but also we have the Roast of
0:48
Tom Brady, which I'm very much looking forward to.
0:51
And if you're a comedian like me, Roast of Tom Brady's on
0:53
Netflix and so is the new Katt Williams, one of my favorite
0:56
comedians. His new stand up is on Netflix
0:58
as well. But then also we have UFCA.
1:01
Little bit of biting in the arena.
1:03
I do have AUFC bet for you for tomorrow, which is a very
1:07
interesting match up here. One guy has not fought in two
1:10
years and he's going up against a fighter who is up and coming
1:14
and on the rise. So I'm going to give you that
1:15
breakdown here with a nice low bets, higher dollar, sharp line
1:18
move. Also, I do have a four pack of
1:22
sweats for you today in Major League Baseball.
1:23
We're going to continue to grind MLB and then also reason why
1:27
it's a special pod. Today I'm going to introduce you
1:29
to now my second favorite sports betting app on the market after
1:33
Rhythm. It's called Juice Reel.
1:35
So I'm going to tell you about Juice Reel.
1:36
I'm going to give you a little bit of background.
1:38
I'm going to tell you why it's a great app to download and take
1:41
advantage of. I'm going to show you how to
1:42
download it. And also we're going to be now
1:45
featuring a Juice Reel segment on the pod each day.
1:48
So I'm going to tell you all about Juice Reel.
1:50
I'm high on it. Hope you guys know that when I
1:52
team up with a, whether it's an app or a company, you know to me
1:56
it's got to be something I believe in, something that I
1:58
know has utility and can help betters win.
2:00
That's my whole point in sports betting.
2:02
You know, I remember when I first started betting, I lost
2:05
all the time, but I loved it and I said hey, I I don't want to
2:08
quit, but I don't want to get better at it.
2:09
So the whole point of the market based approach for the all
2:13
systems Gopod as well as Rhythm and now Juice Reel is to help
2:15
you guys learn how to read the market and make smart bets.
2:18
So stay tuned for a breakdown and a introduction to Juice Reel
2:22
and in particular I'm going to introduce you to Robo Jackson,
2:25
my new guy. And it's not, it's not Bo
2:28
Jackson, it's Robo Jackson. So I'll tell you who that is
2:30
here in a second. But as I mentioned a lot to get
2:32
to today, 4 pack of Friday MLB sweats.
2:35
We're going to have a Juice Reel play of the day and then also
2:38
AUFC bet for this weekend. Now looking back to her last
2:41
night, one and 2 -, 1 point O 9 units.
2:44
We had a nice hit with the 76ers over which came through for the
2:47
team, but unfortunately the extender, Mr. Scott Foster, I
2:50
guess he's not as crooked as we thought.
2:52
He couldn't extend the series for us.
2:54
You know the Sixers are looking pretty good late.
2:56
There's a big Josh Hart 3 which killed us last night.
2:59
So the the Knicks advanced. Sixers lose, unfortunately, but
3:02
the one that was the Backbreaker was the Boston Bruins.
3:05
Man, this is just nightmare scenario all over again.
3:09
Same thing as last year, up three to one now going to a game
3:12
seven. I can feel my hockey season
3:14
slipping away here, but who knows, maybe they'll surprise me
3:17
for game seven tomorrow night. But anyway, one and two for our
3:21
pod plays yesterday. But you may have had a little
3:23
bit better of a day because there were a couple MLB bets
3:26
that I wrote about from my Twitter account for vesan.com.
3:30
A couple hits there with the Orioles as a big sharp reverse
3:33
line move, which was a kind of a dog to pick em play and then a
3:37
dog to favorite play and also had a hit with the Texas Rangers
3:40
as well. So as always, we continue to
3:43
grind here as we steam into a big weekend.
3:46
So without further ado on a action-packed pod here for today
3:49
on a big Friday, let's start off with some Major League Baseball,
3:53
because I know hockey in NBA has been hit or miss here recently,
3:56
but it feels like we're doing pretty good with MLB.
3:59
So let's start with MLB so we can gain a couple units here
4:02
today on the diamond. So first bet on the board for
4:05
me, Major League Baseball. Let's go to a relatively early
4:08
match up tonight, 6:40 PM Eastern Time, San Francisco, G
4:12
Men and the Philadelphia Phillies.
4:14
Now I'm going to go with the Phills.
4:16
Give me the phills here, guys. I got Phillies -170.
4:19
Some books are as high as -175, but let's set the stage and I'll
4:22
tell you why I like the Phillies today Going into it.
4:25
The Giants are 15 and 17. They did just drop, however.
4:28
Two of three against. The Red Sox did avoid the sweep
4:30
though, with a three to one win yesterday in the series finale
4:34
cashing as a plus one O 5 Rd. dog.
4:36
Meanwhile, the Phills 21 and 11 just took two or three against
4:39
the Halos. They won Wednesday series finale
4:42
2 to one as a big -210 Rd. favorite.
4:45
So for tonight's series opener, the Giants are going with righty
4:48
Jordan Hicks, who's two and O with a 1.59 ERA.
4:52
Meanwhile, the fills are going with ready Aaron Nola, who's
4:55
four and one with a 3.2 OERA. So what do we see across the
4:58
market here? Well, big reason why I like the
5:00
fills is because they're getting steamed, baby, getting steamed
5:03
hard. The Philadelphia Phillies
5:05
actually open this game as low as -145.
5:08
They now have a bed up all the way to -170.
5:10
And as I mentioned, some shops even as high as -175 S talk
5:14
about this quite a bit on the pod.
5:15
But I like steam, in which there's no buyback.
5:18
Now you can look at STEAM in one of two ways.
5:19
You know, you can look at it as, hey, they're getting steam,
5:22
which is an overload of sharp action, a big significant line
5:25
move across the market, which is a good sign that smart money's
5:27
coming in. But also some people and there's
5:30
a good reason and a valid reason to think this way, hasn't moved
5:33
too much to where now there's no longer value.
5:35
I look at steam differently, money lines versus spreads.
5:38
Like if a team in the NFL gets steamed, you know -3 up to -4,
5:42
1/2, there's not much value there anymore because you get
5:44
you went through a key number and pros liked it at 3:00.
5:47
Now the team wins by or you know, loses by basically doesn't
5:52
cover the number. Maybe they lose by or win by
5:55
three. You push you laid a three and a
5:57
half 4/4 and 1/2, you end up losing money line.
6:00
It's different like whether you bet the Phillies, you know when
6:03
they as soon as they open -145 or I bet the -170.
6:07
Obviously I'm jealous. I wanted that better number.
6:09
But if we win, we both win. You just win a little bit more
6:12
than I do. That's different with the spread
6:14
sport where the early bet could win and the late late bet could
6:16
lose. So I'm a little bit more liberal
6:18
when it comes to, you know, following Steam, getting that
6:21
indicator of smart money and some like, you know Phillies
6:24
-250 now. OK, I'm going to layoff.
6:26
That's moved too much. But 145 to 170, even though it's
6:29
a big steam move, still worthwhile bet for me.
6:32
But also we got a lot of good system matches here.
6:34
Well, first, pretty good bet split around 85% bets. 90% of
6:38
the money is on the Phillies tonight.
6:40
So tell us we have an overload of both public and sharp bets
6:43
along with that big steam move on the Phills.
6:45
I'm going to bank on the Phillies offense.
6:46
They're rating 255 with 40 homers and 140 a 149 runs
6:51
scored. Giants rating 2:38 with only 29
6:54
homers and 121 runs scored. So for the bats here for Philly
6:59
can put up some runs here tonight.
7:01
Also I'm going to bank on a rest first tired advantage for the
7:04
Phillies. They were off yesterday.
7:05
The Giants played. The Red Sox now have to travel.
7:08
Not a huge, you know, distance from Boston to Philly, but still
7:11
you play and you have to travel versus team that didn't have to
7:14
play at all and is rested and ready to go in that spot.
7:17
Favorites read the day off against a team who's playing on
7:20
the second leg of the back-to-back.
7:21
Those teams are 332 and two 2160% since the start of the
7:26
2018 season. It's a pretty good sample size
7:28
here. Also like the fact that we have
7:31
a non division favorite lack of familiarity, Philly against San
7:34
Fran Cream rises to the top. Better team historically wins at
7:39
a higher rate. Also you look at a Coral to
7:41
betting play favorite. Low total.
7:43
So favorite up here Phillies up to -170 -. 175 total in this one
7:48
is 7 1/2 and actually open at 8:00.
7:49
So the total is falling, which is a good sign because with a
7:53
low total, fewer amount of expected run scored, more likely
7:55
to come from quote UN quote, that better team.
7:58
Also Philly 10 and six at home Giants are just six and 10.
8:01
On the road, Phillies are plus 27 and run differential the
8:05
Giants are -23. So you had me at the steam move
8:08
here with Philly. I'm going to Phills.
8:10
I got Philly at home at -170. Keep on cruising.
8:15
Another game here. A little bit later, 7:10 PM
8:18
Eastern Time. First pitch, the Halos and the
8:20
Cleveland Guardians. I'm going with the Guardians.
8:23
Let's go, Guardians. I got Guardians a little bit
8:25
earlier today at -175. Now setting the stage here.
8:28
Halos are 11 and 20. Just mentioned them a second
8:31
ago. They lost two or three to the
8:32
Phillies. Lost that series finale 2 to one
8:35
as a + 175 home dog. You know, the Guardians playing
8:38
great 20 and 11. However, maybe it's kind of a
8:41
goodbye low spot because they did just lose two or three
8:43
against the Astros. They lost eight to two yesterday
8:46
as a + 120 Rd. dog before tonight's pitching matchup.
8:50
Hopefully it's an advantage to Cleveland.
8:52
Cleveland is going with Tanner BB2 and O 3.45 ERA.
8:56
He'll be opposed by righty Jose Soriano, who's O 1/4 with a 4.76
9:01
ERA for the Angels. And again, this is a steam move.
9:04
It's not quite as big as that Philly steam move, but Cleveland
9:07
actually opened this game around -165 -, 170.
9:11
Now they're up to round -175 -, 180 and I see some shops even
9:14
closer to -190. So of course you want to be able
9:17
to shop around and get the best number here.
9:19
But as I mentioned, I got Guardians -175, they have the
9:22
better bats. They're hitting 247 with 157
9:26
runs scored versus only 242 with 131 run scored for the Halos.
9:31
Also much better bullpen I'm really going to bank on
9:34
hopefully the bullpen of the guardians shutting down the
9:37
Angels. They have an E area of 2.74, The
9:40
Angels bullpen 5.42. That's the second worst bullpen
9:43
in Major League Baseball now favorites awful loss like the
9:46
guardians here because they lost yesterday against the Astros.
9:49
They're 124 and 8061% with a 4% ROI.
9:53
The Guardians have that non division favorite value with the
9:58
lack of familiarity benefiting the benefiting the better team
10:01
and favorite low total correlative betting.
10:04
Now it looks like pros really like this under hard to play it
10:06
now because it's moved so much. It opened at 8 When I wrote
10:09
about this game for vesan.com this morning total was down to 7
10:12
1/2. Now I'm seeing some shops down
10:14
to seven so it's kind of hard to play the under 7 now 7 1/2.
10:17
You could still intrigue me a little bit because this total
10:20
keeps falling but four to three-game you know or you know
10:23
whatever 7 nothing game. Maybe Cleveland rolls for us.
10:27
That would be nice. You know you want to win that
10:28
bet instead of push that bet on an under 7.
10:30
So you kind of lost the hook. With the total there now
10:33
favorites off a loss as as I just mentioned with the
10:36
Guardians 61% this season as well as again with a good steam
10:43
move. A lot of smart money really
10:44
moving this game toward the Guardians so I'm going Guardians
10:47
here guys shop around. But a good steam move pitching
10:50
advantage and it's a good system match play favorite off a loss.
10:53
I'm on the Guardians at -175. Keep on cruising.
10:57
Didn't expect I would lay a -, 140 with this team, but I'm
11:00
doing it. The Oakland A's, baby Oakland
11:03
A's are not that bad this year, guys.
11:05
The Oakland A's are now 15 and 17, only two games below 500.
11:10
Just swept the Pirates 4. Nothing.
11:12
Won the series finale as a -, 1 O 5 home dog.
11:15
They'll be opposed by the Marlins.
11:16
Today we're visiting Oakland. The Marlins are 9 and 24, but
11:20
they did just sweep. The Rockies won five to four and
11:23
extras as a -, 170 home favorite yesterday.
11:25
So what are we seeing here? Well, first, let's start with
11:28
the pitching match up. Couple lefties on the bump.
11:30
Ryan Weathers is going for Miami.
11:33
He's two and two with a 4.55 ERA.
11:35
This year he'll be opposed by JP Sears, fellow southpaw one and
11:39
two 4.64 ERA once again. Good, sharp movement here toward
11:44
Oakland. Oakland actually opened this
11:46
game around a -, 130 home favorite.
11:49
Now they've been bet up all the way to -140, even some shops as
11:53
high as now -145. Again, consistent movement with
11:56
no buyback in favor of Oakland and Oakland's getting around 70%
12:00
of bets, but 80% of dollars tells us the bigger sharper
12:03
wagers are going with the A's here.
12:05
Also much better bullpen. You wouldn't expect this, but
12:09
Oakland is the second best bullpen ERA in baseball. 2.45.
12:13
Miami's the complete opposite, 9th the 9th worst 4.46 ERA
12:18
Athletics have that interleague favorite value.
12:19
Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
12:22
Also interleague favorites off a win which would match with the
12:25
A's. That's 264 and one 6362% with a
12:29
3% ROI since the start of last year.
12:32
Another rest, first tired advantage.
12:33
Oakland was off yesterday. Miami had to play at home and
12:37
they did get a win, but now they got to travel across country.
12:39
So it's kind of a tough schedule spot there.
12:42
And also the A's. Don't laugh, don't laugh at
12:43
them. They're seven and three over
12:45
their last ten. Marlins are three and seven.
12:47
So I'm going with the Oakland A's.
12:49
I got the A's at -140. Now they're as high as -145 at
12:53
some shops. Last bed of the night for you.
12:55
I'm going to take a shot on a dog here and I'm going dogs with
12:59
the Texas Rangers. Rangers are on the road against
13:02
the Kansas City Royals. Now a little background for this
13:06
one. First off, let's look at kind of
13:09
the records of both teams, what we've seen from them thus far.
13:13
Texas Rangers are 17 and 15, took two or three against the
13:16
Nationals, had a big win if you played them.
13:18
I wrote about them in the Sharp Report yesterday for V Sin had a
13:21
big win, 6. Nothing.
13:22
You know Kansas City 19 and 13 and they did just take two or
13:26
three from Toronto. So pitching matchup tonight we
13:29
have Jared Lorenzen. Actually Jared Lorenzen, Rest in
13:33
peace. He was the big quarterback from
13:34
Kentucky, Michael Lorenzen, who threw the no hitter.
13:37
He's on the bump for the Rangers two and one 4.24 ERA.
13:41
He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 2 and one of the
13:45
2.62 ERA. But to me, guys, this is kind of
13:47
a value play on Texas. But also it's a bit of a sharp
13:49
bet. It kind of surprised me a little
13:51
bit. But the public is actually going
13:52
with Kansas City here. Texas obviously won the World
13:56
Series, but they're only two games, about 500.
13:58
Kansas City's kind of a good story.
14:00
They're six games above 500. They played great to start.
14:03
But even though you're getting 60% of bets on Kansas City, the
14:07
line's kind of falling away from KC.
14:09
You had Kansas City open, you know, as high as -120.
14:12
They're down to -115. Some shops are down even
14:15
further, closer to, like -110. So this line is falling away
14:19
from Kansas City toward Texas, even though Kansas City is
14:21
getting a majority of bets. Boom.
14:23
Right off the bat. That's alarm bells.
14:26
Woo, woo, reverse line movement. If Kansas City's getting, you
14:28
know, nearly two out of three bets, shouldn't they be?
14:31
Shouldn't the line be rising in their favor instead of going
14:33
away from them? Tells us smart money here is
14:35
getting down on Texas. Only 40% bets, but a line move
14:38
in their favor. Now I'm going to bank on the
14:40
offense of the Rangers. They're hitting 249 versus 236
14:44
for Kansas City. If you look at some of the
14:46
advanced metrics, could be a good match up.
14:48
The Texas Bats Against Singer singers got good numbers but
14:53
kind of the advanced analytics are saying he's getting a little
14:55
bit lucky here so hopefully the bats of Texas get to him.
14:57
And also we have a classic dog high total.
15:00
So Texas Rangers you know, getting as high as I think they
15:03
were plus one O 5 + 1 O 8 to open.
15:07
Now they're down to like even money plus 100 + 1 O2.
15:10
Some shops are now like a -, 1 O 2 -, 1 O3.
15:13
So basically smart money is turning this game closer to a
15:16
pick em after opening Casey as a favorite.
15:19
But the dog high total is a good thing because correlative
15:21
betting, the opposite of a favorite low total, is a good
15:24
dog high total. So anything nine or more total
15:27
in this one is 9. More expected run scored, more
15:30
variance, more upset opportunity.
15:31
So I'm going with Texas. Feels like a good value play.
15:34
Getting the Rangers around, even money with a little bit of line
15:37
moving a contrarian spot. I'm going Rangers shop around.
15:40
I was able to get the Rangers at plus one O 2.
15:43
So we got Phillies, Cleveland guardians, Oakland A's and Texas
15:47
Rangers. Can we get three out of four?
15:49
That'll be pretty nice. Now over to the UFC, Biting in
15:54
the UFC and then I'm going to introduce you to Juice Reel,
15:57
which I'm very excited about. Let's go to UFC because it's
16:00
been a hot minute here since we've had AUFC pick.
16:03
And if you don't know, I, I like to say biting, Biting, because
16:06
me and my friends always joke around that Bruce Buffer, who
16:10
does the intros in the Octagon introducing both guys.
16:13
He'll always have the card in his hand, given the intro, and
16:16
then he'll point to the person and say biting in the left
16:19
corner. He's saying fighting, but it
16:21
sounds like biting. So I always want to make that
16:23
clear, 'cause I always have people like, what the heck are
16:25
you saying, biting? It's kind of a little bit of a
16:27
joke here with Bruce Buffer. But anyway, for those who are
16:30
unfamiliar with UFCI have a rudimentary model that I like to
16:34
play when I bet UFC. Something I developed during the
16:37
pandemic when there's nothing else going on and I felt like,
16:40
hey, the world's ending. Let's at least try to maybe find
16:43
a way to bet UFC Well figured out a rudimentary model.
16:47
What I look for is fighters who are younger, taller, have a
16:50
longer reach and then also the data's in their favor.
16:53
So they have a line move in their favor and a good bet split
16:55
low bets, higher dollars. So I found one biter or fighter
17:00
who matches that this weekend and it is.
17:02
I believe this is the Co main event.
17:04
Josie Aldo against Jonathan Martinez and I'm going with
17:09
Jonathan Martinez. Let's go Martinez.
17:12
Now let's start off with a rudimentary model.
17:14
Let's look at the tail of the tape.
17:16
Jonathan Martinez is 30 years old.
17:19
Josie Aldo is 37 years old, so big youth advantage there.
17:24
One thing a mentor of mine told me at the when I first started
17:27
getting into UFC is fade fighters who are 35 years or
17:29
older and fade fighters who are at least five years older than
17:32
their opponent. So I'll be a fade of Aldo, who's
17:35
37, versus Martinez who's 30. Martinez has a one inch height
17:39
advantage 5 seven verse 5-6. Nothing crazy, but I'll take it.
17:43
And then a a reach, not an advantage, but not not a
17:45
disadvantage. They're both 70 inches so that's
17:47
exactly the same. But right off the bat first
17:49
thing you notice is a big youth advantage for Martinez.
17:53
Secondly, let's go to the data. This is so important here
17:56
because as data-driven betters, we're trying to be against the
17:59
public and with the smart money and that's what we're looking
18:02
like. We where we are with Martinez
18:04
because Martinez at BET MGM. Thanks to my buddy John Ewing,
18:07
who sends me this data every Friday morning.
18:10
Basically it's a 505050 bet split.
18:12
You know, if you look at Martinez, he's getting 48% of
18:14
bets, but he's getting 72% of the money.
18:18
So sub 50% tickets, way more than 50% dollars tells us the
18:22
bigger, sharper waiters are with Martinez.
18:24
And then here's the missing link.
18:25
The line move. The line's moving toward
18:28
Jonathan Martinez. This game or this bout opened
18:32
with Martinez, a very short -120 favorite.
18:35
Now he's been met up to -140, $0.20 the move some shops even
18:39
as high as -150. So tells us the bigger wagers
18:42
here are going with Martinez. Now couple things to know about
18:45
this bout. So we're we've got the tail of
18:47
the tape. We got the data in our favor
18:49
with Martinez also. This is always something I look
18:52
at, but significant strikes per minute because unless It's A
18:55
Knockout, if it goes to the judges, typically whoever has
18:58
the more offense usually gets the benefit of the doubt.
19:01
You look at Martinez, 4.64, significant strikes per minute,
19:05
3.57 for Aldo. So Martinez dishes out more
19:08
punishment. And here's where it gets a
19:10
little interesting. Josie Aldo, who is great
19:13
fighter, you know, again, but he's older.
19:15
And I was reading about Josie Aldo because I I remember his
19:18
name and I haven't seen him in a while.
19:19
I'm like, you know what's going on here?
19:21
Josie Aldo is coming out of retirement for this fight.
19:25
So right off the bat, coming out of retirement to fight, that's
19:27
not a good sign. Maybe you should stay retired,
19:30
But I was reading more about Aldo.
19:31
He's actually been boxing for the last two years and if you
19:35
and there was a interesting kind of connection here that I was
19:39
reading about where someone was talking about Josie Aldo coming
19:44
out of retirement as a boxer and then trying to get back to MMA
19:46
and how difficult that could be for him.
19:49
And they were talking about the McGregor versus Mayweather fight
19:53
because you remember Conor McGregor, it was the ultimate
19:56
pros versus Joe's. Everybody and their mother was
19:57
on McGregor, but the sharps are on Mayweather and the line moved
20:01
to Mayweather. It was like 90% bets.
20:04
McGregor but like 90% dollars on Mayweather and Mayweather came
20:08
through. But anyway, the point there is
20:10
that in McGregor's first return of the Octagon after he focused
20:14
on boxing, he lost to Dustin Poirier.
20:17
He got knocked out. So to me it's just a very
20:20
difficult situation for Josie Aldo to go from not being in an
20:24
Octagon and and and you know, feeling and dishing out that
20:27
punishment and and the intricacies of UFC abandoning
20:31
that for two years, trying to box and then getting right back
20:34
to the UFC. That's a really tough task
20:37
especially for a guy who's 37 years old coming out of
20:39
retirement. So Publix basically split
20:42
slightly into Josie Aldo but we got a sharp line move, good low
20:46
low bets, higher dollar bet split, huge youth advantage,
20:49
more significant strikes per minute.
20:51
I'm going Jonathan Martinez blinding in the UFCI got
20:55
Martinez at -140. Now to finish up the pod, I want
21:00
to introduce you to Juice Reel. So if you've never heard of
21:03
Juice Reel, that's OK. They're an up and coming app,
21:06
but they are awesome. And I was connected to Juice
21:08
Reel by my buddy James Santor, who is one of the rising stars
21:13
of the sports betting media space.
21:15
And I was also introduced to Ricky Gold, who is the CEO of
21:19
Juice Reel. Great guy.
21:20
We had a Zoom meeting earlier this week to talk about teaming
21:25
up and I just felt like it was a great fit.
21:27
I've been learning more about Juice Reel.
21:28
Juice Reel is one of the most comprehensive betting tools for
21:32
sports bettors, and it really has a ton of utility.
21:35
So couple things that Juice Reel will give to you.
21:37
Juice Reel #1 is a great bet tracking app, so if you're
21:40
looking to track your bets, it can sync with your sports books.
21:43
So you can sync your DraftKings or FanDuel or ESPN Bet or
21:46
whatever you want to the app. And then when any time you place
21:50
a bet in your betting app, it'll sync up to Juice Reel so you can
21:54
track your performance. There's also a leaderboard, so
21:56
you can kind of compare yourself to other bettors.
21:58
And here's another cool thing, like Ricky was telling me about
22:01
how the idea of juice drills like to democratize kind of the
22:05
the betting space. And what does that mean?
22:07
It means, like, if you're a good sports better, you can actually
22:10
bet on yourself and you can basically put your place out
22:13
there for other people and you can do it for free.
22:15
Or you can sell a package like, hey, you want, you know, you
22:19
want Josh Applebaum's picks. You got to pay 10 bucks a month
22:21
to get my picks for a month or 1000 but you set your number.
22:25
Now everything I do I I try to do for free.
22:27
But the whole point being is if you believe in yourself as a
22:29
good better you know you can get out there in the community rise
22:33
up the leaderboard. You can make money off of juice
22:35
trail by putting up your plays and betting on yourself and
22:39
selling packages. You can also connect with
22:41
friends, tail friends, you can look at the leaderboards.
22:43
Another cool thing was this arbitrage I was learning about
22:46
where basically you know you can guarantee not not like a ton of
22:50
money, but like you know one book will be like, you know over
22:54
6 1/2 at plus 110 or under 6 1/2 at plus 120.
22:59
You bet them both and you make $2.00 because of it's an
23:02
arbitrage because you have both ways and guarantee a profit.
23:06
It's great for line shopping looking for the best odds.
23:09
And then also it's got some really cool things which I want
23:11
to mention today, this thing called sharp mush.
23:15
Like really Ricky Gold and Juicer.
23:16
This is a very impressive app and there's a ton ton to it And
23:19
again, I'm not going to, I can't explain it all to you in in one
23:22
day here. It's something that we're both
23:23
going to use together and get better at as we talk on the on
23:27
the Pod each day because we're going to have a Juice Reel
23:29
segment each day. But anyway there is, there are
23:33
two things. The sharp mush is really
23:35
interesting because what what Juice Reel does is they have
23:38
basically thousands of bettors who use the app and it's another
23:41
AI back situation where they're tracking the performance of all
23:45
their bettors. And if you're basically
23:47
designated as a sharp, you know you're winning at a good rate,
23:49
You're beating closing lines, or you're designated kind of as a
23:52
mush, you're not that good. What it does is the app will
23:55
compile all the bets from the mushes.
23:58
And if you don't know, mush is actually from A Bronx Tale.
24:01
Eddie Mush was a degenerate gambler.
24:03
He was so bad, everything he touched turned, turned to mush.
24:05
That's where the phrase comes from.
24:07
And we all probably have a mush in our life that, you know, is
24:09
always annoying in the group chat or complaining when you get
24:12
down one nothing in the first inning.
24:13
So we all have those people who feel like they're a mush.
24:16
But anyway, the sharp mush kind of metric is that if there's a
24:20
game where like all of the sharp people on the app are on team A,
24:23
but all the mushes are on team B, it will light up with a sharp
24:26
mush play on team A saying, hey, the mushes are on team B, Sharps
24:30
are on team A, you should take team A.
24:32
So I think it's just a really interesting concept, kind of,
24:35
you know, looking at pros versus Joe's basically.
24:37
And then the other thing I really like that I want to
24:40
introduce you to which I I love. I just love this name.
24:42
Robo Jackson. Bo Jackson.
24:45
But Robo Jackson is a multi sport specialist who has been
24:48
known to do it all at the highest level.
24:50
Robo Jackson dot AI ingest all of the data that Juice Reel has
24:55
to offer to find the absolute best bets each day.
24:58
So Robo Jackson, it's basically a bot, it's an AI bot.
25:03
He puts out two best bets each day at noon Eastern Time 2A day.
25:08
That's it. I like that it's not a million,
25:10
it's just two each day. And then you can basically get
25:14
access to those pics. You can tail them, you can fade
25:16
them, do whatever you want. I wouldn't fade them, but it's
25:19
just really cool. And I'm.
25:21
I'm also learning how people like they'll wait until noon
25:23
when these pics come out and play them as soon as they come
25:25
out. But there are two plays each day
25:28
and I'm going to give you one of them now.
25:30
If you want to get both of them, you got to go sign up for the
25:32
Juice Reel app, which I'll tell you how to do in a second.
25:33
The one that caught my eye is they have a Robo Jackson dot AI
25:38
bet. And by the way, Robo Jackson,
25:40
since he started up here little less than a year, he's got a 231
25:44
and 183 record 56% remember 52.38% is your break even mark
25:50
so he's actually doing pretty well here, this AI backed app.
25:53
But anyway. Or AI backed personality.
25:56
I don't even know what you call them.
25:58
But anyway the play here, so if you want the second one you got
26:02
to sign up for juice Reel. But the one that I want to
26:04
mention is Robo Jackson likes the Magic tonight on the money
26:08
line. So then the Magic are at home
26:10
against Cleveland. The Magic are down three to two.
26:13
Now I have a Cleveland series price.
26:14
So you know, hopefully if they don't get it done and hopefully
26:18
'cause I'm going to play the Magic money line tonight,
26:20
hopefully the Cavs come back and win game seven.
26:22
But anyway, Robo Jackson, a suggestion suggesting that we
26:25
play Magic on the money line, shop around that is at -175.
26:30
You can maybe find a book at around -165.
26:32
But I agree with this bet. I'm going to tail this bet and I
26:35
think that's the beauty of juice rail.
26:37
You can just tail 2 bets each day from Robo Jackson.
26:40
There's also other models that they're testing and they're
26:42
training, which they're tracking.
26:44
But if you look at and, these names are great.
26:46
Chip Bayless Pick, Sabin Robot, Griffin the Third Hammer,
26:51
Ferdette and Patrick Ewing. But OU Wing?
26:55
That's kind of funny. Anyway, the play with the
27:00
Orlando that I like is that we have some system matches on
27:03
Orlando. Playoff favorites off a loss are
27:06
11 and five straight up 69% this season.
27:08
This post season playoff home teams are 29 and 1566% straight
27:15
up. Playoff home favorites are 24
27:16
and 1071% straight up. So I got some matches here on
27:20
the Magic and that overlaps with the Robo Jackson play on the
27:25
Magic money line. So that's what I'll be rocking
27:28
for our first Juice Reel play of the day on the All Systems
27:32
Gopod, which will be a new new daily feature.
27:34
And we'll learn this app together.
27:36
But if you want that second play, which is on the other NBA
27:38
game tonight, you got to sign up for Juice Reel.
27:41
So I'll play Magic -175. Now lastly, I want you to go
27:45
sign up for Juice Reel now that I've told you about it, But in
27:48
order to do it, I want you guys to go to my Twitter page at Josh
27:51
under score Insights. You're going to see a tweet that
27:54
I put out talking about how Juice Reel and the Robo Jackson
27:57
app AI Bot is. I think he's one six straight
28:00
click that custom link right on my from my Twitter page then the
28:05
then the Juice Reel will know that I I re referred you which
28:07
is important here so give it a shot But Juice Reel, we are now
28:11
creating a portfolio of trusted data-driven AI backed sharp
28:16
apps. Rhythm number one, Juice Reel
28:19
#2. Lastly of course if you enjoy
28:22
the pod and you want to help me grow the pod.
28:26
First off thank you for listening.
28:27
Thank you for supporting the pod and telling a friend.
28:30
That would really go a long way. Word of mouth of course, but
28:33
there's one thing you can do to help me grow the pod.
28:35
Can you go please give this pod a five star review Whether
28:39
you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, give it five stars that
28:43
really help us to rise up the ranks, help us to gain some
28:46
credibility. Of course, if you enjoy the
28:49
breakdowns, this approach to betting, the data-driven style
28:51
betting, maybe you look forward to the breakdowns each day
28:55
walking through the bets. Maybe a tail, maybe a fade.
28:58
Either way, I appreciate you guys listening.
29:00
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, then
29:03
guess what? I wrote a book, How to Become a
29:05
data-driven Sports bet. It's called the Everything Guide
29:08
to Sports Betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
29:10
the Everything Guide to sports betting, and then you can pick
29:13
up a copy for you or for a friend.
29:14
It'll mean the world to me. Guys, If you wanted to buy one,
29:16
I will buy you a beer and I will give sign the copy of the book
29:20
for you at the at the Sports Book.
29:22
But seriously, it's got everything.
29:23
I've learned how lines are set, how to read line movement, how
29:26
to locate sharp action, how to place bet in person or online,
29:28
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
29:31
management plan, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:34
betting. So lastly, of course, have you
29:37
signed up for rhythm yet? Rhythm is the balls.
29:41
Rhythm is fantastic for data-driven and AI back picks
29:44
and props. And if you haven't done it yet,
29:46
I want you to go sign up and give Rhythm a shot.
29:48
I know my guy Gary Garrison is crushing rhythm and he's 18 and
29:51
12. He's up like 6 units on the
29:53
player. Props for the totals, but you
29:54
haven't done it yet. You can click the rhythm link
29:57
located in the bio of Spotify for this episode, or you can
30:02
just go to my Twitter page at Josh. under score Insights give
30:04
me a follow in the pinned tweet at the top of my page.
30:07
You'll have that custom link for Rhythm.
30:09
Give it a shot. You can start making smart AI
30:12
back picks today. Well, that about does it
30:14
everyone, of course. Whether I see you at the Borgata
30:17
in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island in the Brooklyn,
30:19
New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
30:22
Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
30:24
Park Casino. Or MGM Springfield.
30:26
And my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
30:28
Or, of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
30:30
down. Where Billy Walters sends his
30:32
number Runners where the lowest choose possible is found.
30:34
At the South Point. Or sweating sharp contrarian
30:36
plays Jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa, getting a
30:39
victory burger at the end of the night, wherever it may be.
30:41
You're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me a nice
30:43
76ers over ticket from last night.
30:46
Don't show me a Bruins ticket or a Sixers money line.
30:49
But also, if you played some MLB earlier in the day, show me a
30:52
nice Orioles ticket as well as a Rangers ticket.
30:54
And guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:56
you. We're going to post about the
30:57
book. So that sharp contrarian plays
30:59
all night long. So of course my parting words
31:02
stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public, Place
31:05
yourself on the side of the house.
31:06
Always be with the smart money. Never against it will smart
31:08
money. One every time?
31:10
Of course not. Again, we beat the closing.
31:12
The Bruins did it again. CLV got the Bruins like -120.
31:15
They close like -130 at some shops.
31:17
But again, sports betting guys, it's always difficult when
31:20
you're treading water. Treading water, Maybe you're up
31:22
a unit, down a unit, up a unit, down a unit.
31:24
Just keep with it, stick with it.
31:26
Whether you're struggling or you're hot doesn't matter.
31:29
Even keel sports betting's hard. Always remember that it gives
31:32
you confidence when you're winning, when you're losing.
31:35
Just remember we're in a very difficult business trying to
31:38
predict the unpredictable. But if we can consistently stay
31:41
true to the data, not our hearts, but with our head
31:44
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
31:47
avoid parlays and get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
31:50
to be successful sports players. So enjoy the sweats.
31:52
Everyone Have a fantastic weekend, Big weekend ahead.
31:56
We got UFC. Say a prayer for my Bruins.
31:58
Are they really going to break my heart two years in a row, up
32:00
three to one and lose? Who knows?
32:02
They probably will. I hope not.
32:04
But also we got, again as I mentioned, the roast of Tom
32:06
Brady. We got the Kentucky Derby, the
32:08
sun shining. It feels like springs in the
32:10
air. I hope my hockey season doesn't
32:12
end tomorrow night, but good luck everyone.
32:14
Have a great weekend. We'll be back at it on Monday
32:17
for episode 37 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
32:20
podcast, powered by rhythm. Have a great Friday and an even
32:24
better weekend.