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Best Bets NFL Week 9 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: am Chad Nolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Today is our week nine Thursday NFL episode. This is
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: and build our money line Underdog Round Robin. We give
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: out our foxhol bet and our Big Balls bet of
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the week. We narrow down our picks for the free
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: to say, there is a sea of money out there,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: because there's a sea of money out there. If you
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: want to follow along with our official bets, you can
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: check them out on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: dot com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: can also track all the bets. Simon and I lock
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. Now let's bring in my co host, my
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: companion Michael Padre My BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter, Hehado Sime.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Hello, Hotsha, good morning, Good.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Morning to you, my friend. Listen, my head is swimming
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I really want to get into these
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: games because numbers have moved in different ways. Games that
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: we really loved have gotten some attention, maybe from the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: wise guys that we didn't expect. I have a lot
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: of things that I want to be talking about today
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: as a reminder of the Favorites. Podcast is presented by
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do
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  Speaker 1: you ordinary. That's why you at more boosts with them
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• 2:12
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• 2:18
  Speaker 1: why it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia, or eighteen or older in Kentucky.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Week
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: nine kickoff is near, lots of opportunities. Let's not dilly dally.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Sharp calls Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Somebody said maybe watching. Yeah, And a week of disagreement, Chad,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that's what it feels like.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: And you know what, I'm not surprised.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: There's people on both sides and a lot of disagreement.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: A lot of guys think they know what's best, and
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: it's been rough where it's like I had a couple
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: of games I really believed in this week, leaking a
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: little confident confidence on a couple of them just because
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: I know who's coming on the other side, and you know,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: it'd be a good week that if we weren't doing
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: the show, I probably would take off, no joke. It's
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: just a week where there's just so much disagreement. We've
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: had such a good run, especially myself this year. It's like, Man,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be in this drama. You know,
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: just the first game we're gonna talk about this Miami
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Chiefs game. I don't know why you would put six
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: figures on this game if you're a big time better, Like,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: there's just so many unknowns. They're in Germany. Miami's had injuries,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: they have guys coming back, The Chiefs have injuries. We
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: don't know who's back and who's gonna be playing this one.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: And I knew there was going to be some sharps
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: and professionals coming in on Miami. When I talked to
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: the you know, the group that is coming in heavy
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: on Miami. They really liked their position there. They really
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: liked this Miami team. They like they like the two
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: and a half, they like the two, and they're a
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: big believer that Miami is the better team in this matchup.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: And I think me and you are still from the
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: standpoint of we back Mahomes in these spots if you
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: just need him to win the game. At minus one
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: and a half, I can't avoid it. Like even all
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday I was trying to fight it and be like
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: now I'm coming around in Miami. I just I can't
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: get there. I mean, I think Brady and Belichick, I'll
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: put them at number one. There's no one better at
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: beating you and the clock. Like the best smartest minds
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: of football. They're not playing you, They're playing the clock.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: No one's better that than the Chiefs. The Chiefs if
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: they have the ball last Mahomes, who does it better
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: than killing that final five minutes and just kicking the
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: field won't win in the game. So I can't believe
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: these guys are betting so heavy against Mahomes in the
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: spot we might be stepping in with Seattle. I think
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: we both knew that it's up to six now despite
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of the tickets, allow the money pouring in
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: on them. How do we avoid it? Chat another game
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: where it's like, I wish we could just avoid it.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we can. You know. Shockingly, another
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: really smart group came in, Have you on the Washington
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: even though Washington's moved their two best pass rushers. They
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: like Washington against New England.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I love the Washington.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a ton of points against New England. Like
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: that's my view. It's like, yeah, it's a trap, like
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: they want you to take all those points of Washington.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: That is a lot of points against New England. That's
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: just one of the stinkiest lines this week. The boys
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: love the Saints. We already missed the boat on that,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Like we talked about it with the backup quarterback, I
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: try to get ahead of with fields. They've just been
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: betting NonStop. I feel like that's every week though, right
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: is it? Every week? We talk about the Saints numbers
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: move than being bigger favorite. So yes, they've now gone
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: from six to eight and a half. And that's that's
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: some real money there, moving that number all the way
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: up because the Saints are bad, like them to be
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: up to eight and a half. I want to take
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: it so bad, Chad, I want to take it so bad,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: but I know better, and brother.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Brother, it's in the script down the list. It's gonna
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: be hard not to bet the Bears at eight and
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a half, but please continue.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Cowboys. A lot of pros love the Cowboys, and that
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: was another game I was split on where I thought
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: we would be on the Cowboys. You like the Eagles.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: I kind of like the Eagles. I think it's just
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: it's just the number is what it should be. I
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: make it three three and a half. It's just sitting
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: there exactly where it should be. The Bills, there's a
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: lot of trends that point to the Bills and me
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: and you are being super Chalky just going with the
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Bengals there that they look like the best team last week.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Everyone's putting them back in their top five. You know,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: it's this Joe Burrows back. We might be stepping in it.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: And the last one is the Jets. We love it.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I don't care that all these guys love the Chargers.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: They're all in on the Chargers. I know a really
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: smart group that came in heavy on the Chargers. That one,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: honestly doesn't still fade me. I still love the Jets there.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: I am happy to take the three and a half.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Most of my money right now is bet on the
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Jets of three and a half and the Panthers at
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: plus three. And I hate this week. So that's it
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: for sharp calls this week. It's just so much shit talking.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: I can't take it. I think I told Chad I'm
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: not a big drinker. I went out and got after it.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: On Halloween. There was a huge party here. You know.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: I woke up every other hour just people calling me
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: just because there was just so much crazy line movement
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: on that Tuesday to Wednesday night. The biggest one a
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: game we're going to dive into is just this Miami
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Chiefs game. I just couldn't believe how opinionated people were
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: on it and how much money people are put on it.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Where it's a game in Germany, I just would never
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: make this one of my bigger bets.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we can't put this game in the contest,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: but it is too big of a game with too
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: much of an interesting narrative. As you mentioned, Evan has
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: been doing some on the ground reporting for what's happening
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: in Germany. We're going to bring him in special for
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: this game's breakdown. We got to start narrowing down the games.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: We got to get to Foxhole, we got to get
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: to survivor Pick. We got to get to big balls
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: better the week. Lots of trades this week. The Commanders
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: unloaded their v line Montese sweat to the Bears, chase
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: down to the Niners. The Vikings traded for Josh Dobbs,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the Bills traded for Rausul Douglas. Seattle traded for Leonard Williams.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke is starting for the Falcons, and of course
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the Raiders fire Josh McDaniels and they are now one
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Giants. So Miami
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: versus Kansas City in Germany. You and I love this.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: On Sunday when it was Kansas City minus two, it
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: did go up to two and a half. Got that
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: back down. We still liked it. On Tuesday. I saw
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: you yesterday we were doing the Faves Film Room YouTube exclusive.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Go check it out. You did Geno Davis this week.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I did Trey Hendrickson. We're going to talk about those games.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: You did not look good, And I said to you, dude,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: what's going on? You're like and you we had a
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Halloween hangover. You remember what you said when I asked
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: you why you looked so ragged.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm living with the goddamn ghost.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: You're living with a ghost. But also you were checking
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: that Miami Kansas City game NonStop, and your face about
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: how the line was moving and how sick it was
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: making you feel. And what did I say to you?
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: I just remember we had way too much confidence.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: We're betting Mahomes to win. Yeah, we have zero evidence
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: not to bet on Kansas City and the homes for
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: all the things you just said. I know there's sharp
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: groups coming in, but by the way, where's sharp sometimes too?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I do not fear betting on Kansas City in this spot, I.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Know, And that's what's giving me fear. You're just so confident.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: I hate it. You sound like them. I just I
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: don't know how these people can bet this game so confidently,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: especially the Miami side. I'm not the biggest trend better.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: I mean that trend that Evan gave us is incredible,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: like nineteen and six under three points or as a dog,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: It's like, how do we not do it? So I
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: hate it, like I would have much more confidence if
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: this had gone to three, because that means a lot
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: of the pros were on this with us. I told
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: you it's a smart group man like to move this number,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: especially when the books know every teaser everything's going to
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: start Sunday morning tied to the Chiefs. All the bets
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: are tied to the Chiefs. So that's what's giving me
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: pause here. It's like it's a really big standalone game,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: and I know the books are good, right they crushed
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: last week the Chiefs losing outright. This is our one
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: of our more public plays of the year. I'm so
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: happy we don't have to put this in the contest
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: because I just I told you, Guessdy I was pregnant
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: by out of my chiefs position. I haven't. I just
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: actually ended up putting a little bit more on it
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: at the minuts one and a half and good for you. Yeah,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna trust my homes.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Dolphins four and ten straight up versus teams above five hundred,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: sixteen and seven straight up versus teams below five hundred.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: They haven't beaten a team with a winning record since
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: they beat the Bills in Week three of last season.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Only two teams don't have a straight up win over
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a team with a winning record in that span, Chicago Bears,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Mammy Dolphins. And this is part of the logic that
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: is part of the logic we had on Tuesday. I'm
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: just not buying the hype. And so Evan, you're on
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the ground, not literally, but you've got people do miss
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: your take on what's been happening with Germany as it
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: relates to weather and how it could impact this game.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just two things to think about. And I brought
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: this up before the call, so I wanted to kind of,
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: you know, bring in some two cents here. So wind
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: is an interesting factor in this game. So the total
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: was fifty one and a half down to fifty and
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: a half, but right now it looks like seventeen mile
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: an hour wins at the beginning of kickoff, going to
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: eighteen and nineteen potentially, which would be the windiest game
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: this season, any game, any team.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: The thing that's interesting though, was the roof. So I've
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: been talking to a few people who I know actually
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: in Germany and trying to figure out the situation because
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: it kind of just depends roof is pushed in. Probably
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: only impacts field goals. We've been told roof not closed,
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: but probably doesn't impact passing as much if it's pushed in.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: So I just something to think about, something to worry about.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: Probably closer to kickoff will probably get more information. And
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: the second thing is, and I know Simon's actually mentioned
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: this before, but believe the Dolphins have actually been in
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Germany all week while the Chiefs were flying a little
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: bit later. To me, that actually matters, and it has
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: mattered before, and I think it's good for the Dolphins.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: So we'll see how much that impacts Kansas City. But
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: just the little things, especially in this type of game.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: We're betting the Chiefs. As remind the NBA season has
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: officially tipped off. And you guys, you listeners, we want
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: to thank you. We asked you last week to listen
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: to Buckets, our daily NBA betting podcast, and you helped
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: us make it a top fifty sports podcast on Spotify
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: last week. Thank you for checking out Buckets. Action Networks
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: basketball betting podcast with new episodes every single weekday this
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: NBA season. All right, I'm so glad we could get
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Evan to Germany and back in record time. We spare
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: no expense to get information to our listeners and watchers
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: here at the Action Network. All right, I just want
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: to be Washington at three and a half. I have
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: no faith in Bill Belichick, who's eighty two and ninety
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: six in his career without Tom Brady. I have even
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: less faith in Mac Jones, who the Pats wanted to trade,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: but nobody fucking wants this guy. Like Washington is traded
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: away its most impactful defensive players, the lines barely moved.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: It may be as suckers bet a huge pros Joe's game.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, all the pros are on Washington, that
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: public is on New England. Here's a stat I took
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: from Raybaud, who also like New England, and we like
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: it when we're on the same side as Raybond, which
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: worries me for a lot of our picks today. He
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: said this on the Action Network podcast, which you can
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: go listen to or check out the Sunday six pack
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. Road Underdogs of less than a touchdown Washington
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Commanders against the team that averages less than eighteen points
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: per game, New England Patriots. They are sixty four percent
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: against the spread the past two days to sample size
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the nearly three hundred games. What are we doing here?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: You say we're walking into a trap. I say we're
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: getting an opportunity.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: I say you are, now we are? You are Chad.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Chad has a understand how how the money works. So
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: this this open at two and a half. It's three
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: and a half. Tell me again where the sharp money is, Chad.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Sharp money's on Washington, New England.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: If the number is going from two and a half
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: up to three and a half, it crossed two key numbers.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: It's the professionals have come in on New England. So yeah,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: I told you it's a split week. There's gonna be
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: people in Washington, There's gonna be people in New England.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: I'm dug in. I've already bet this heavily at the
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: three with New England. I haven't let the three and
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: a half scare me off. I'll bet it if I
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: need to. But I have enough enough threes out there.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I can just take the threes for the New England.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with you. It's not a good feeling, Chad, Like,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: do I want to be taking Mac Jones a favorite? Hell? No,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: the guy sucks. Like everything you just said is so
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: damn true. I don't. I don't feel good about it.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: But I'm just playing the spot, playing the number. And
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: Washington just had a really intense, hard fog game against
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: the Eagles and they fell short. Now they're traveling up
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: to New England in the freezing cold. It's just a
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: bad spot for Washington. Like I can't say it enough.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: It's like you sell your best two pass rushers and
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: now you need them, and you needed them in this game.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Like the fact that Washington is bad. Their defense is
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: really bad. We've talked all season how bad their defense is.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: They've gotten rid of the only good thing on that defense.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Their two best pass rushers are gone. Maybe Sam has
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: a great game against Belichick's defense. It's just I have
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: to back Bill here catching three against a bad head
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: coach and Rivera and just a bad team in Washington
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: that they play the Eagle stuff, but everyone else it
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: seems like they're just bad again. So I wish I
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: could get there with you in Washington. I just can't.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let the three and a half scare them,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: especially if it's in my contest. If I like New England,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: I'll just end up taking them. But I'm with you.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: It's never fun going against Chris and backing the Patriots
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: as a favorite. It's just it's a gross feeling, but
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it feels like it's the right move this week.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: It's one of the growth You keep saying it's the
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: right move, but you like, we know Washington's defense is bad,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: but all of the trends about specific coaches, specific spots
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and teams in numbers in this spot, Ron Rivera don't
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: forget as much as we don't like him, and we're
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: angry that he did not go for two last week
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: to give us an easy to give us the cover
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: and the win when we had it at six and
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: a half and better at seven. He's the one of
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the most profitable coaches the past twenty years against the spread,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Tomlin Harbaugh. I think it was Vrabel and Rivera. So
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: like you keep telling me New England it's the right
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: spot and the right move, but all the evidence is
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to the contrary.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: What's the evidence your trends?
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, don't get don't. Don't all of a sudden belittle
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the trends Matt Jones is doing.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: You're saying twenty years' Ron Rivera. It's like, what are
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: we doing? We're talking about when Roun and Verd cam
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Newton or when he had the green Lizard Taylor Heineke
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: last year. No, No, it's a bit weird.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: No, No, we can't be selective about defining when the
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: trends work for us. We can decide we don't like
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: that trend.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Yes you can, Chad. That's the whole point of trends. Brother,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: use trends when it benefits yourself.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: The trend just because you don't like it in this spot.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're going to put Washington the contest.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: But I haven't heard anything about New England that makes
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: me say, oh, yeah, it's the right spot for New England.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: You did I told you I like New England. That
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: should tell you it's the right spot, brother God, And
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: what are we doing here?
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I'm an evidenced based human scientologists need facts, Simon.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: It takes no Bravery taking Washington here at plus three
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: and a half. Chad Bravery will take New England and
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: minus three and a half? They what are they? Two
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: and five? They're the worst teams on football. Man, It's
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: just that's my whole read here. It's just like I
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: don't trust the books. The books aren't our friends. I'll
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: say it all the time. And it's a little stinky
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: this line, the fact that it's up to three and
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: a half. There's just something here I don't like about it.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna find consensus on this word.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay at Houston, we liked Tampa two and
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm getting a little antsy about it. Tampa
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is the fourth luckiest team in the NFL per Our
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: luck Rakings, Raybaund loves Houston. Stucky loves Houston.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Is that what I'm gonna do all week is just
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: are you gonna talk about what the Sunday six pack
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: guys like? And we just go on the other side
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: maybe maybe they do. Last week, man, Mitchell, jump in
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: real quick.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I know how competitive you are, and I know you
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: remember everything, so you know what they did.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: I just know they didn't do better than us. And
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: now you're all in on them.
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: Hey, Chris and Stucky, who do the Sunday six pack?
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: As part of the Thursday Action Network Podcast NFL episode
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: They went three and three last week, but they are
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: four games over five hundred for the year, and as
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: a reminder, make them lock in their picks on Wednesday afternoon.
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: You guys pick on Sundays and you guys get contest lines,
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: So just everybody cool it.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Every single week, everyone is so angry. Tito is so upset.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: He's like, why are we fighting? We're family. Everybody loves everybody.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: I just I love Chad. But if every number chants
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: can be like and the other guys are on the
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: other side of this one, it's like, Okay, it's a
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: split week. People are gonna bet opposite sides. Brother, That's
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: my point.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: It's a very challenging week. Tell me what's gross?
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Isn't that? Isn't that the whole brand of the show?
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah it is, So what's the gross? Pick? Here? Is
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: it is it taking CJ or is it taking the
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: shitty ass lucky Bucks team at plus two and a half?
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: Like the I told you, I think the book's out
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: on CJ. Could be wrong. Maybe Todd Bowles is a
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: fucking idiot and Tampa is just is a bad defense now,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: and like, yeah, we could be walking into it. It's
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: just it's another number that feels like it's too high.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: If this was I don't know, a month ago, I
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: probably would be on Houston. But now we're a month
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: in and just this Bucks team defensively, I think they're
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: gonna have an advantage over this Houston team. So yeah,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: it's tough. Chad. Obviously, I wish this was plus three.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: It's plus two and a half. What can we do?
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I'm going to take the two and a half here
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: with the Bucks.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I already bet the Bucks at two and
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm not afraid of this one.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I'm always I'll be honest.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I feel like this one doesn't give me pause in
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the way like Washington, the way New England would. I
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: feel like we're getting a decent number on two teams
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: that are so so Texans. What I've seen from CJ
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Stroud the past couple of weeks hasn't been as good,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and three games after his hot start, he's pretty much
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: a mediocre quarterback and his numbers bear that, which are
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: not all that different than Baker Mayfield. It's my take
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: on that game.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked that I've sent up be in
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: one of our five Sunday Morning It's it's just a
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: good number in a good spot for the Bucks.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: We still owe a foxhole, we still owe a big
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: balls bet of the Week Arizona Cleland. We were waiting
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on this until we heard about
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. According to practice reports, Clayton Tune, former Houston quarterback,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: University of got all the first string reps on Wednesday.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Murray was a full participant, but was with the practice squad.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: We're kind of leaning Cleveland here. I think the only
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: thing that's holding us back is the status of Murray.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: And I saw Watson practice yesterday and looked alright, which
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: would be, you know, not the biggest deal. Obviously, he's
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: been crap all season, but at least we know he
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: won't turn them ball over as much as PJ. Walker does.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, another game, Like I just I feel no
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: confidence in but it feels like we have to play
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Cleveland Arizona. They're going to be playing this kid in
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: his first road start against that Brown's defense. I just
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: don't know how they score. I don't know how they
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: get there. It's like it's really an uphill battle for
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: a Cardinals team that they've just they've lost so many
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: key policces to an already bad offense. It's a little weird.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: The number hasn't moved up, especially with the news that
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Watson might be coming back. So you know, there's a
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: couple books right now to have them at seven and
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: a half. You can get Cleveland right now at seven
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: and a half, which is pretty interesting. Like the fact
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: this number just hasn't gone up, it stayed kind of
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: low relatively speaking. I do like Cleveland obviously our sponsored book.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I wish it was the seven and a half, it's not.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: It's still eight, which is a key number, so I
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: won't make that our foxhoul, but definitely like Cleveland. This
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: spot like it's rare for me to take these kind
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: of favorites, but it feels good, especially if Arizona got
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: such a ridiculous cover last week. Cleveland had a last
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: second loss. It just it lines up where Arizona's gonna
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: come in this Cleveland just is going to kill the
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: demolished them in this game. When we saw it earlier
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: this year, where you know, Tennessee came to play Cleveland
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: and their defenses rolled them. And that's what we expect
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: here with this Cleveland team against Arizona.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I feel like we have two we have three contenders
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: for foxhol and big Balls, all of which are at
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the bottom of the schedule. In the bottom of our
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: scripture Chicago at New Orleans, you're saying the wise guys
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: are on the Saints. We've seen that number move to
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. Derek Carr is just not good
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: as a favorite. This number is so big right now.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Like I'm convinced the bearers are the right side here.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I like, I'm not going to buy into the Derek
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Carr hype because he finally had one good game against
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a defense that is kind of cratering right now, seventeen
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: twenty nine and two against the spread as a favorite
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: with the Raiders, he is now He's one five and
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: one as a favorite with the Saints. Never had a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: year above five hundred as a favorite eight twenty four
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: and two when favored by three points or more over
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: the last three years, one nine and one again to
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: spread in this spot. How are we not taking the
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Bears here?
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably have regrets not touching it, but I
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: just I can't get there. Man. The Bears bears a stink.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but there's there's no difference here, by the way,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: between the Bears and the Patriots. We got a terrible quarterback,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a terrible team with a huge number against a team
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: that we have no faith in.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: There's a million differences between these two teams. The Patriots
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: actually have a good defense. The Patriots actually have a
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: good head coach. Say what you want about Mac Jones.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: He's not a deer in headlights like your guys quarterback is. Like,
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: there are some differences here, Chad, But I get you're
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: coming from. It's it's it's tough to defend the Patriots,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: the worst team in football. But no, the Bears are
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: nowhere near the same team the Patriots are. I mean
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: just defensively, the Patriots are light years ahead of that. Man.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: Like even talent wise, you guys have no talent defensively,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: I mean you have good linebackers, but what the hell
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: has that done for you guys this season? Nothing? I'm
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: with you, it's a huge number. I should be on
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: the Bears. They're going to be probably the least bet dog, right,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, who's betting the Bears this week? Even when
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: I talked to a bunch of a professionals, like I
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: know there's a couple of guys who like the Bears
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: because what you just said, it's a huge number against
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: the Saints. But no one's like going crazy like you
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: gotta bet the Bears here. So I'm just gonna stay
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: away from it. I already missed the best of the
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: number on the Saints. This gets up to eight and
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: a half nine like it is now, and it's still
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: that on Sunday. I'll throw a little taste on it.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: But I just can't make this my five.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Clearly, you're overrating Bill Belichick as a head coach. Here's
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: fourteen games under five hundred in his career without Tom Brady, Seattle,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Jesus Christ Seattle at Baltimore.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: This is awful, awful takes this morning chat. I'm loving it.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: You're just firing away.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Addle at Baltimore. We were talking about this game on Sunday.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: I still have yet to bet this game because I
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: cannot get myself to pull the trigger. Yeah, it's so
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: fucking hard. It's gone from five and a half to six.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: You're saying that the wise guys and the sharp calls
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: are coming in on Baltimore. It just it's like everything
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: says take take the Seahawks. Everything. This is a a
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson who is terrible as a favorite of three
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: or more. Pete Carroll is great as an underdog. Why
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: aren't we all in on Seattle here?
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think it's just because the Rams
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: have been playing so well, right, look, and that's the
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: thing they've just been They've played so well in the
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Seahawks just seem like a team that you don't really
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: know you're getting. Like you said, I think we did
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: the film Slash with Gino. It's like he's been inconsistent.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: You'll have are really good back to back drives and
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: then he'll just disappear for two quarters. You're not getting
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: that really with Lamar. This year, Lamar has been really consistent,
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: and you're right, like, I don't know, should this be
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: our big balls bet? It's it's hard where it's like
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I can't I can't avoid it, can't avoid the Seattle.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: But it feels like the same scenario when the Colts
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: came and played the Ravens, remember that, where everyone was
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: all over the Ravens and then somehow the Colts won
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: on like a last second field goal. And maybe that's
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: who this Ravens team is. They just beat the crap
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: out of you know, bad teams, where I guess they
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: did beat the crap out of the Lions too. Uh.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: She can't really look at that point, but it's hard
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: because they really had been one of the best teams
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: in football, the Ravens defensively, offensively, everything. They're just so
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: well coached. It's crazy this is up to six. It
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: really is crazy, crazy.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: That it's up to six. Also, don't forget in that
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Lions game, the Ravens were not big favorites, right, the
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: number was much smaller. So like it was in it
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: was with in a range where I think they I
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: think it was two and a half if I'm not mistaken,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: And we loved Baltimore and so that to me is
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the range in which you want to bet on. Lamar
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Jaction a short favorite it's a bigger number, like when
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: it's over, when it's over three, it's just he hasn't
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: performed well. And that's exactly what happened with the Colts.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: And Seattle's a better team than the Colts. And this
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: is a good spot for Pete Carroll. He's a good
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: coach and like the defense is pretty good. Did they
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: just get better with Leonard Williams, Like you know, all
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, there's all these things flowing around. We
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: are having a hard time pulling on the trigger. I
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: don't know if this is our big balls, because I
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: think our big balls is going to come from or Foxhole.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: It's going to come from Eagles, Jets or the Bengals
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Buffalo game. Ah is my is my feeling. But this
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is because this game is really hard. Also, I don't
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: know that, Like does it take big balls to bet
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: in this game?
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I would say yeah, because that's like you you already
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: haven't you can't do it, and I'm scared to do it.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I would say yeah. And a lovely priest that kind
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: of hates us said, depends what contest number we get
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: for this one, Like I know we we uh we
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: it'd be hard for us to skip it at six
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: and a half in the contest, like that's a big,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: big number. But like I say all the time, the
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: books are not our friends, and this number is stinky.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: I assume it would be three and a half by kickoff,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: not alway if the six, like that's such a key number.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at our site on our app right now
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: and it says like all the money is on Seattle
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: and it just keeps going up. Uh not good, not good.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: So that's terrible it is. It is weird when a
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: five and two team is catching six. I don't know
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: what to deal with it. So I'm cool that on
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: making our big balls back because I'm just so lost
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: in this number. But I have taken a bunch of
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: sixes like I took a bunch of five and a half.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: So now I'm taking a bunch of sixes and not
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: feeling great right now. But I don't know what I'm missing.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know what I'm over looking to see Seattle team,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: what the books you're seeing here? But clearly they have
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: the reason for moving this all up to six, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna probably learn the hard way.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Comes Sunday, Minnesota, Atlanta. I apologize. We can't give people
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: a consensus like a hardcore yes, we love it, Like
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what we're putting in the contest
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: right now. Like it's it's a really hard fucking week.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: It's a brutal week. Minnesota at Atlanta. So this number
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: is at five. Atlanta Falcons are favored by five. Taylor
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Heineke's in. We got Jared Hall playing quarterback for the Vikings,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: probably his first career start. The only reason I think
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here is Taylor Heineke is a favorite.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: It is just not the same as Taylor Heinekes a
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: dog like the variants, and what he can do when
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: he's trying to come back versus trying to hold the
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: lead and making a stupid pass when they should be
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: you know, throwing it out of bounds. Is that is
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke. And here's a stat which has been a
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: guiding light for us the past few weeks. Atlanta started
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. They are now the favorite teams in
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: that spot forty three eighty three against the spread since
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. It's helped us avoid losses this year, maybe
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: not getting wins, but it helped us avoid losses.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got no read on it. I have no
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: idea Minnesota. I think I'm with you chat where it's like,
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I guess I'll take the four and a half just
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: because they're the dog and like you said, who is Heineke,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: you'd be catching that many points. But I'm with you.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I got no no read on this game whatsoever.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: India Carolina was Simon says, you had Carolina plus two
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: and a half. Another game, Indie open is the dog
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: and is now the favorite. I feel great about this one,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: right I loved Bryce Young looked much better against the Texans.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: The play calling was much better against the Texans. They're
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: moving them out of the pocket, They're moving faster. I
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: don't think this Colts defense is very good right now?
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Do you have anything to add?
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: No, you could grab the three. There's still one out there,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: go grab it. It's just it's a spot play, like
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: we think the Carolina Panthers defense. They play way better
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: at home than offensively. I loved what I saw from
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: their new you know, the new The new play caller
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: to me was a big deal. I talked about all
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: the motion I saw. In fact, they're getting Bryce Shong
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: outside the pocket. Like, I just I loved all those
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: things I saw. And you know this, this Colts team
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: has been incredible this year. Offensive. I think they're the
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: only team of football. I'll have to go back and look,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: but I'm pretty sure they've scored more than twenty points
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: or twenty points or more in every game this season,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: which is crazy. Like they've had huge injuries to Anthony,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: we're just in their number one quarterback, brought in Minshew,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: and somehow the offense is still producing at a high level.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: Pretty incredible for the Colts and their head coach, which
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time like this, this guy is
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: a great play caller. So we're pretty much betting at
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: the Panthers defense, which they've done all year, show up
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: at home, is going to show up again. And I
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: love the two and a half. I think it's such
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: a key number. Maybe they'll lose this game. Okay, maybe
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: they will this Panthers team, but the fact that you
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: get three it right now still a couple of books.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: It's like, how do you not grab that number on
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: this team that just plays better at home against a
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: team in Indy that they've not that they've been waiting
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: for a letdown game. But we've kind of seen it
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: where they've struggled against good defenses like they're you can
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: go and look on paper what they do against you know,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not even to say Cleveland's a bad defense. I mean,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: they did whatever they want against Cleveland, but teams that
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: run zone and teams that run man, the splits for
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Minshew are huge. So Panthers at home defense, Chad, this
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: is what I get to. We'll have in the contest
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: at two and a half, even though the best number
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: out there is three. We only play contest lines here,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: so give me the two and a half.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually feel really good about this one. You're right.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Cult are the only team to score twenty points in
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: every game this season, nine straight games. It's the second longest.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: The second longest streak right now is the Jaguars with
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: five games. All Right, we're getting into Foxhole, big balls territory.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Philadelphia Eagles are a three point favorite. I'm
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: a little squeamish on this. This was my exact decision.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I know you've been waffling on this too. We've got
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of noise on both sides of this game,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: with people liking Dallas a lot right now, what we're
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: hearing statistically, what they like about Dallas in uh, how
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: McCarthy has been calling plays for Dallas the past few games.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Much more aggressive, much fewer runs on first down. Eagle's
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: third luckiest team in the NFL for the luck rankings.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: And then Evan shared this, Dak is twenty five and
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: ten against the spread versus the NFC East. All that set,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: all that set, fly, Eagles Fly.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you on it, but like Chad knows,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: I'm just I'm a little agitani about this one. I
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: don't think there's much value on the number. And I'm
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: a little worried about Hurts his injury, a little worried
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: about the Eagles secondary, but I feel like the Eagles
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: have such a huge advantage playing at home. Dak at Philly,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: I know he's played well against us, but we kind
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: of had like a down you know, not down run,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: but like we just we just have an consistent consistency
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: at the QB position during Dak's tenure. So, yeah, we
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: won Super Bowl and then Wentz kind of fell off
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: a cliff there. We had a couple of dark years
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: there where he racked up the wins against us. I
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: am shocked this number hasn't gone up to three and
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: a half. I did think more money would come in
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: on the Eagles and the public would come in on
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, and they kind of have, but it's held firm.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: But it feels like just the same scenario when we
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: had the Dolphins, right the I thought everyone in the
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: world was gonna come in on Miami against the Eagles,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: and you know, by game time they really hadn't. All
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: the money was coming down the Eagles, and the books
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: kind of held firm at the number. And you know,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: the Eagles what, they beat him by two touchdowns, so
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: hoping for the same result. I'm with Chad, and like
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm a little worried that this is getting
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: up three and a half in our contest, which is
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: gonna be another tough conversation to have. But uh yeah,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Eagles coaching wise, talent wise, the better team. Jalen Carter's
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: back as well. He practiced in full yesterday, which is
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: a big deal have him back plugging up the middle. Yeah, Chad,
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to get there with you. It's just right now,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: this is this is not one of my bigger bets
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: of the week, Like I do have money on the Eagles,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: but I am hesitant putting more down on it, just
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: because I'm getting nothing about hurtsing this injury, Like you're
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: taking away his running ability and that's that's a big deal.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: Like the guy's ability to scramble outside the pocket. I
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: know he got away with it against Washington. I don't
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: know if you'll better get away with that against Parses.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: I mean we I think that was you that picked
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys, was that two weeks ago to break down
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: their d line, And it's like they got three guys
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: there that all can get after the quarterback even if
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: he was fully healthy, even though they weigh one hundred
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: pounds more than Hurts. Those dudes can catch them like
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: they got some really strong, fasty tackles. And on the ends,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: we already know what Parses can do. So there's if
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: you're on the Cowboys side, I definitely can see you're
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: coming from. But I'm with Chad, like I believe in
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: the Eagle, especially here at home. Catching just three, we
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: can't avoid it, can't can't avoid that number, and the
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Eagles at home here, So I'll join you and take
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: the Eagles here Chad, all right.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Well that's the exact decision. So our final two games are.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: I got another game. We didn't talk about that.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: I love Oh all right, well let's talk about these
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: last two and then let uh let's throw it out
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: of one in there. I might have missed it in
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: my notes. Buffalo at Cincy. You know what's interesting? So
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: we love Cincy. On Sunday night at one and a half,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: it went up to two and a half. Did it
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: get it got up to three?
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: I think the middleman, Chad Millman got it at three, right,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: I got.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: It at three. Not the line is down at two.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: It's funny. I had people texting me wondering why you
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: were against me trying to middle. They were surprised that
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: you didn't like my middle play.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Because I was just worried you were gonna be like, well,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: I don't want to take the Bengals now because I
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: want my middle That's what I was worried about. That
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: A lot of.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: That, like I don't care either way I win, anyway
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: we choose, it doesn't matter to me.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: Well I do. I'm only on the Bengals. I didn't
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: try to middle this one. But no, I'm just busting
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: your bulls, Chad. I live for metals. Chad knows this. Yeah,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: another game we might be stepping it. It's like the
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: super Chalky side. We're betting the most type team, the
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: best team in football right now in the Bengals, and
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: we're fading a Bills team that they are really bad
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: right now, Like their fans are excited about adding Rasull Douglas,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: like a guy who was out of the league pretty
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: much two years ago. Packers picked them up for nothing.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: He played really well for them. He's kind of turned
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: it around and ended up being on their better corners
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: and they moved them to the Bills. I don't know
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: what to do with it, brother, Like I feel like
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: the since he's the right play. But you know, clearly
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: some pros like the Bills. They're coming on another side
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: and they've bet this down. But on paper everything, it's
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: like the Bengals feel like such a better team and
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: they're healthier. So once again, maybe we're getting caught. Me
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: and Chat are walking into it. But I just I
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: cannot be talked out of the Bengals here. I just
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: love the Bengals and I love this number.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I like the way the Bengals
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: have been playing. I like the way they've been playing defensively.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about Trey Hendrickson. He banged up
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: his ankle against the Niners. Did not practice on Wednesday.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean he's not gonna be play.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen did in practice.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen did in practice. He's got injury right now
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: since he is becoming one of our teams in the contest.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Are we in the foxhole here?
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: At least if we lose money here, you're losing money
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: on the Bengals and Joe Burrow where people that they're
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: gonna hate hate the game I love so Yeah, I'm
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: good with doing Cinci for Foxhole. You know me, regardless
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: of what's going on, I'm a Foxhole guy. I commit
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Foxhole guy.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: All right, let's bring your game in last, because the
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: other game that I want to talk about is the
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Chargers visiting the Jets.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I fucking love the Jets here. You love the Jets here,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And the fact the line has moved against us feels
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: to me like we have to make this big balls
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: back of the week, right, all.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Right, let's do it.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, how do we not?
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: Because yeah, again another game heavily opinionated. I know some
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: pros they think the Chargers have it kind of got
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: a right that Herbert's gotten healthier and he's he's playing
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: now one more confidence with that banged up finger. And
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: my argument that's just the Bears defense. They make anyone
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: look like they've kind of found their groove and this
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: is a totally different world this Jets defense. And my
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: biggest hesitation is, like, I know we did the luck
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: ranking stuff. Are the Jets not the luckiest team of football?
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Like Jets are the fifth I think the fifth luckiest
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: team in football.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: They gotta do something like that, Like you look at
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: their week one win against the Bills, extremely lucky. You
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: look at their win against the Eagles, extremely lucky. They're
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: winning the last week against the Giants like he needs
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: so many little things. They literally hit that tying field
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: goal with the second left after the other team's kicker
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: missed a field goal that would have made the game
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: impossible to I'm back on you know, maybe we're buying
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: high on the Jets and we're walking into it. But
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: Chad just said, I can't avoid it. Now that it's
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: up to three and a half primetime game, with that defense,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: I can see this losing by field goal. Cannot see
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: the Jets getting blown out here. So I'm right there
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: with you, Chad, like there's nothing we can do to
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: avoid this one three and a half. I gotta take it, big.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Balls better the week. New York Jets at home Monday
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Night Football, three and a half point underdogs against the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers. Dude, we are stepping in it in
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: every way. We never we never bet a Monday night game.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: We're better to gainst a quarterback we love on a
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: team that's getting lucky. That's the kind of week it is,
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: like we're having to make really, really, really hard choices.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: What is the game that I missed that you wanted
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: to talk about?
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: The Raider is? Oh God, come on, What's I'm waiting for? Stucky?
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: As little article about teams playing after the coaches gets fired,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: I know it's not any really any type of beneficial
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: to the team, but I think this will be beneficial
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: to them. Like they they seem like they hated Josh
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: McDaniels and they all wanted a bad mouth and they
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: couldn't they're starting O'Connell here, the guy you love I
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: love so much, starting him over Jimmy g. Daniel Jones
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: is apparently trying to rush back and playing this game.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: I love that as well. The fact that this numbers
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: come down so much. I believe the look ahead on
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: this was like five and now it's all the way
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: down to one, one and a half. I'm just gonna
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: grab that value there on a Vegas team that we
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: say all the time they have talent, like this team
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: does have talent. I think the coaching has just been
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: what's holding them back. So maybe someday morning I'll be
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: able to convince you on it and get you there.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: But it is one of the grosser plays of the
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: week because we're backing just a really bad Vegas team
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: and experience quarterback. But my real bet here is just
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: back in this Raiders defense. I think that's that's why
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I really like hearing this matchup against his Giants offense
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: and Daniel Jones just turns the ball over and if
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: they win the turnover Battle of Vegas, I really feel
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: like we're gonna get there. I don't know if you
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: saw Antonio Pierce, he's the guy that's taken over now
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: of the head coach of them. He just rings out
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: of that like great motivational guy, which in five weeks
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: they're all gonna be sick of him and hate hearing
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: from him. But in this first game, I like that
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: kind of spot, like the Jeff Saturday move right. Remember
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: last year we back Jeff Saturday in his first start
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: as a coach, and.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: He went out right the line one and a half.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw. I think maybe it was Evam, I
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: don't know who it was. Some one posted that twenty
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: two percent of his wins as a Raiders coach came
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: against the Patriots, which I just loved. That's your favorite
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: stattoo because Belichick's not a good coach, but it's it's
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: it's an ugly play I much. I think the fans
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: will much rather make the Bengals are Foxhole bet than this.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: But I'm just telling people I can't avoid this one.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Like I got three really ugly bets this week. This
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: is one of them that bucks, the other one that
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: panthers the other one. It's just there's some ugly spots
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: this week. But I just I gotta take it, by.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: The way, this is how bad of a week. It
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: is if your ugly bets are the Raiders, the Panthers
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: in the Bucks and you don't mention the Jets. So
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of week that we're struggling through here
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: to try to.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: That's your four and three brother, but it's true.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: But still still it's the Jets. It's Zach Wilson. I mean,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: let's not be unrealistic here. Reminder about our contest picks.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our initial picks into the
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So Simon and
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: I will talk right after this is over. We're gonna
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: hung it out. We're going to tell each other that
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: we love each other, and then we're going to come
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: to consensus on the five picks. If you want to
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: see the unofficial picks we've entered in the contest before
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: they lock, just go to the contest site favorites dot
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com, search for the Phase five. That's us.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: We have those picks by this afternoon. They will lock
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, because Simon and I will talk again on
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: Sunday to see if we change anything. But we will
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: come to a consensus today and put those in before
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: we get to the money Line Underdog Round Robin. Reminder
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: that the Week nine contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: On Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode's description.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, Good
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: luck to all. Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. Mo dog likes
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: your dog, Your dog likes mot dog, Simon, I would say,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: Carolina Tampa Jets.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Jets, I mean, we got to get your commanders in there,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: don't we Yeah? Should we go Seattle? Like I always
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: like throwing one big dog game. I know we don't
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: have a lot of them this week. Bears, I can't
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: do it, can't do it.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: Well, if we're gonna like, that's one of the few
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: big favorites left, right, we don't want to take Arizona.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: No, Let's do Seattle, all right, Let's do Seattle.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Why is that game scaring me more than any other game?
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: It's terrifying, man, our.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Money Line Underdog Round Robin. Right now, Carolina, Tampa Jets,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Washington Seattle. Make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL. Part of your game day simon,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: the clocks fall back this weekend. Does that mean a
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: whole extra hour for you to eat Little Caesars yesterday?
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: For sure? It does. Order online during our Pizza Pizza
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: pregame one hour before NFL games and get ready for
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• 48:10
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• 48:14
  Speaker 1: think about this motto I just invented before the show started? Idown?
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: If touchdowns make your pelvis thrust, be sure to order
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: crazy Crust. However you order your pizza, you win. And
• 48:32
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• 48:39
  Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Survivor pick
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the Survivor Pool pick of the week Saints or Brown's.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's up to you. Like I was, I was
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: gonna go Browns just because they're in the hard Division.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else we're gonna use them. But
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: you are you doing an actual Survivor contest?
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Shad or now I'm out? I'm out of my contests?
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: Oh man? So I like I'm in it, and this
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: is a big money one. There's only a couple of
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: us left. And like I was going through it, we
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: got really lucky. Like early in the year we used
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: the Giants in Washington because they played Arizona. I am
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: so happy looking back at that.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Oh my god.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I have a bunch of options here. I'm
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: with you, like if it's I know, some people have
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: to lock it in. If you want to just play
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: it safe, you know exactly what quarterback are gowning against
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Ghost Saints. If you're like me, and you can submit
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: it Sunday morning, which I can. I can submit it,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: you know, up to twelve thirty. So I'm I kind
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: of have a little bit of leniency here. I'm gonna
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: wait and see who the quarterback is for the Cleveland.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: If it's Watson and it's going up against this rookie
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: for Arizona, gotta do Cleveland. And if not, if it's
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray coming in there, which doesn't really scare me
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: too much because it's his or start after a long rest,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: But just to be safe, the fact I'm so close
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: now to actually win in this thing. There's only a
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: couple of guys left, I will switch to the Saints.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: So for our one two plays, I'll put it on
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Twitter on Sunday morning. It's gonna either be Saints or
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: the Browns.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Your biggest bets of the week right now.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I don't tell you what to do with your money,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: don't fucking tell me what to do with mine, Okay, anstalingly,
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: I regret saying that that was a horrible thing to say.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: I love y'all very much. Right now, it's Panthers. Shocking,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: shocking to know one that's just such a typical bet
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: of this show. Tampa. Another game where it's like I'm
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: really back in the defense, believe in the defensive number,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: and you know it's getting there. But Jets. And when
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: I moved to three and a half, I started betting
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: even more, which makes me a little nervous. I don't
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: respect my money, and they haven't moved it down, but
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: a bizarre number. They moved it up to three and
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: a half with the Jets.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: I can't avoid it all right, Before we get out
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: of here, Action Network Director or Research Evan Abrams, the
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: engine behind the rate stats and nuggets you here on
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: the show and across our network. He's all the way
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: back from Germany supersonic speed. Evan bring us the last word.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: Surprised you guys did use the Commanders and Survivor. Okay,
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: So what a run the public is on? I feel
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: like this needs to be discussed a little bit. Sixty
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: four forty eight and five and the public is any team,
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: fifty one percent of tickets are more. So it is
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: that's sixty four to forty eight and five number best
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: start through eight weeks since two thousand.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: And five, which is our full bet laps database.
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: To go even further, thirty seven to twenty five and three,
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: sixty percent of tickets are higher, also best and public
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: sides after a team loss.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: So team loses, then.
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: They're the public side and everyone's like, oh my god.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: They gotta win thirty two, seventeen and three against the
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: spread this season. So it's been a crazy run. And
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: to think about this, the Dolphins and Lions have been
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: public sides ten times or ten to zero against the
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: spreads for this week. But every time the public rides
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: that train seems to cover. Okay, so how about this one?
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: I think this is the one Simon was talking about earlier.
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: So the Raiders eight no to their team total under
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: so far this season, only team in the NFL that
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: are undefeated to the under, so no overs.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: For Las Vegas.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: But to talk about the fired note he was talking about,
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: thirty five teams have fired their coach during the regular
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: season since two thousand and three. They are sixteen and
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: nineteen straight up, but nineteen and sixteen against the spread
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: in their next game after the firing. Now you might
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: say to yourself, okay, fifty four percent. It's not the
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: best note ever. But if you think about it, those
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: teams ninety and two thirty nine straight up twenty seven
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: percent and one twenty two and two oh four thirty
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: seven percent against the spread prior to the coaching change,
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: So Raiders might get a little bump here. And Matt
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: Mitchell asked for this, so I'll give it to you.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: Nineteen sixty nine. Since that date, Steelers have had three
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: head coaches. Raiders are now on their fourth coach in
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: the last three seasons, So got to toss that one
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: in there.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Let's go mad.
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: And then finally, this is just for you guys. Home
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: teams with a win percentage of twenty five percent or
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: less who are favored by three and a half or more. Okay,
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: thirty one forty eight and one against the spread last decade.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: That is New England this week.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: So I figured I toss it in there just to you.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Know, I damn it, little grenade.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Before you are, you are trying to drive a wedge
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: between me and Simon.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Honestly looked that up.
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: Look that up mid episode because I was like, it's perfect,
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: So enjoy that, man.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, that's that idea.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: V Thanks thanks very much, as always valuable insight. To
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: recap the Foxhole Cincinnati minus two, the Big Balls, Jets
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half exec decision, Eagles minus three.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Carolina plus two and a half our round
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Robin Carolina, Washington, Tampa Bay Jets, Seattle. Well, if we
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: had to choose five right now, Simon, I don't know
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: that we could do.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: It the phase five for now.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Carolina Jets. We'll have to see what the
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Eagles are at. We'll have to see what Cincinnati is at.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I would say Cleveland if they're below eight, and maybe
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: we change it if we get some quarterback news. Seattle.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Yeah, no, it's definitely a tough week
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: to finalize our.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: Five we'll hack it out after the show and again
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: check out favorites dot actionnetwork dot com and you'll see
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: where we land for now, with the caveat that we
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: might change it on Sunday. Simon and I will be
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: back with our week nine recap episode live on the
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page this Sunday. Every Sunday, seven thirty
• 54:48
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• 54:53
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• 55:03
  Speaker 1: to Matt Ford the Ford family for the new baby.
• 55:08
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• 55:15
  Speaker 1: our sign off phrase. Until Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern,
• 55:20
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• 55:31
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