Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 312: Cattle on Feed Report Says One Thing, the Market Might Suggest Another w/ Samantha Cozza-Wright

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312: Cattle on Feed Report Says One Thing, the Market Might Suggest Another w/ Samantha Cozza-Wright · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  In today's podcast episode with Samantha Kozar, right, we are
• 0:02
  breaking down at the current cattle market everything that we
• 0:05
  have seen over the past week and we are touching on the cattle on
• 0:08
  feed report. It was released last Friday.
• 0:10
  And So what does it mean? What are we seeing and what do
• 0:13
  you need to know as a cattle producer for yourself?
• 0:15
  Before we hop into today's episode with Samantha, if you're
• 0:17
  watching on YouTube, make sure you take a second to hit that
• 0:19
  subscribe button and like this episode.
• 0:21
  And if you're watching on any of our other podcast platforms,
• 0:24
  make sure you're following the show.
• 0:25
  Go take a second to re rate and review it.
• 0:27
  And if you enjoyed today's podcast episode, make sure you
• 0:30
  go share it with a friend. Now, without further ado, let's
• 0:33
  go ahead and hear from Miss Samantha Koza, right?
• 0:39
  Welcome to the Cattle USA daily podcast Your.
• 0:42
  Go to source. For the latest livestock
• 0:44
  markets, industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
• 0:47
  today, I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate
• 0:51
  for agriculture. Here to keep.
• 0:52
  You informed and connected, now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:01
  Samantha, welcome back to the podcast once again.
• 1:05
  How are you? How has life been?
• 1:07
  Good. Really busy.
• 1:09
  I was joking with a gal earlier about how we always talk about
• 1:13
  we're going to get cattle out to pasture, we're going to get corn
• 1:15
  planted, and then things are going to slow down.
• 1:17
  But it seems like it's a busy time of year all year round.
• 1:20
  If that is not the stinking truth on that, I think that it
• 1:24
  is just a busy time of year for every everyone right now.
• 1:28
  I think the spring crazies have just hit because I swear I was
• 1:32
  like, or just make it to May. Like right now.
• 1:34
  That's my thing of like once I get to May, my schedule clears
• 1:37
  up and I'm like, I I know that as soon as I get to May, I'm
• 1:40
  going to fill my schedule or like cows have to get to grass.
• 1:43
  Like there's there's things that we're going to fill it with.
• 1:46
  So it's just the spring crazies is what I have coined it as.
• 1:50
  Yeah, absolutely. You almost have to lie to
• 1:52
  yourself to get to the next step.
• 1:53
  And then you're like, oh, we're busy again.
• 1:56
  Yep, Yep, which in the endless, endless cycle running on the
• 2:00
  hamster rail, but it's fine. It's fine.
• 2:03
  Well, how have the markets been over the past week?
• 2:05
  Samantha, give us the low down. Oh, man.
• 2:07
  You know they've been pretty choppy last part of last week,
• 2:11
  first part of this week, a lot to probably do with cash, fat
• 2:14
  cattle coming up short of that 250 that we talked about last
• 2:17
  week and some softer prices in the sale barn.
• 2:20
  I think the overall indicators probably suggested steady cash
• 2:23
  last week. We all wanted to remain pretty
• 2:25
  optimistic mistake because of where futures were trading, but
• 2:28
  then that negative basis just really worked against us and
• 2:31
  Packers thought 250 tooth and nail until the board couldn't
• 2:34
  sustain it and here we are. Last week everything was pretty
• 2:37
  much traded steady with the week before 246 to 249.
• 2:41
  This week so far I've heard bids of 246 which would be the bottom
• 2:45
  bottom end of last week's market.
• 2:47
  So we had a pretty friendly Catalan feed report come out,
• 2:50
  but seems the board pretty much has shrugged it off.
• 2:52
  Felt like it's done the last few months.
• 2:54
  Feeder cattle been doing some pretty irrational things first
• 2:58
  part of this week. But you know, something that I
• 3:00
  always go back to is it's all about perspective and someone
• 3:03
  must be seeing something they don't like and here we are.
• 3:06
  But you know, I want to touch on these cattle on feed reports for
• 3:09
  a minute because we always talk about them being the Black Swan
• 3:11
  on the industry or the markets and different things.
• 3:13
  It was nice to have a friendly cattle on feed report this this
• 3:16
  month versus that last one we had was pretty bearish, but the
• 3:19
  market shrugged it off too. But you know, these cattle on
• 3:22
  feed reports, they're so flawed. How much stock you put into them
• 3:25
  or believe the numbers they're giving you, really that's up to
• 3:28
  you, but they're far from perfect.
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  And and that's why we always talk about this is because for
• 3:32
  one, you know, we don't even see the Packers cattle on feed
• 3:34
  estimates. They the way they gather
• 3:36
  information is flawed. We're comparing last year which
• 3:39
  to last year, which is a problem because there is some feed yards
• 3:42
  that report this year that didn't last year or report last
• 3:45
  year but didn't this year, you know, and the only one that's
• 3:48
  really accurate is the federally inspected slaughter.
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  But other than that, you know, it's kind of just a perspective
• 3:53
  thing and you got to take them with a grain of salt, but it's
• 3:56
  kind of where we're at with that.
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  I think that like every time we're about to get a Catalan
• 4:00
  feed report out, we're all like holding our breath, like guess
• 4:03
  what's coming this Friday? It's a Catalan feed report.
• 4:06
  And then it comes out and we're like, and we're just going to
• 4:09
  ignore that and pretend that that didn't happen.
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  If Dan was on right now, he would say the government back
• 4:16
  down and get rid of him for a few months again, because I
• 4:19
  think that was his favorite part of the last government shutdown
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  was not having any Catalan feed reports.
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  Because they're flawed, just inherently flawed.
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  And I think that you can use them as a tool potentially
• 4:31
  depends on the report, But I want to, like you said, don't
• 4:35
  put too much merit in them. Absolutely, for sure.
• 4:38
  Well, what else are we seeing in the markets?
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  Any other highs, lows. What else do we need to go over?
• 4:44
  You know, just really looking at the overall state of the
• 4:48
  industry as a whole, I think there's really a few things that
• 4:51
  stand out, whether it be from an industry perspective or just
• 4:55
  different people that I've talked to.
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  But for one, you have to acknowledge efficiency levels,
• 4:59
  right? I mean, this industry is well
• 5:01
  versed adjusting. We do it every day in our own
• 5:04
  operations. You talk about herd numbers
• 5:06
  contracting over 35% in the United States since 1975, and
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  we're producing substantially more beef than we were 50 years
• 5:14
  ago with 48 million less cattle. Pretty impressive.
• 5:17
  Cattle on feed itched that report that came out last week
• 5:22
  on Friday, it showed that cattle on feed on the feed yard longer
• 5:26
  than 180 days makes up more than half a total inventory.
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  So we've got better grading. We've got more beef per animal,
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  plus these feed lots figure it's more cost effective.
• 5:35
  But at some point does that trickle back to demand at the
• 5:39
  sale barn? You know, maybe heifer attention
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  makes up for some of that heifer's dessert as a percentage
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  of the feed yard, they were back by 60,000 head from last March
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  due to retention. But how do we support that in
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  the short term and long term? To me, that raises I guess some
• 5:54
  overall questions because over 60% of the country is in a
• 5:56
  drought right now and grazing acres overall are shrinking
• 6:00
  drastically for a lot of different reasons.
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  Not just drought, but you've got development.
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  There's over 1,000,000 acres of grass grassland that goes to
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  development annually. So at some point, you know,
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  everything has to meet somewhere, and I really, really
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  hope Mother Nature's on our side this summer.
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  We can continue to be optimistic, but there's really
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  just some things that are out of their control that we wish
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  weren't. Yes.
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  One thing that has always stuck with me is like when you're
• 6:25
  overwhelmed by life control the controllables like look at your
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  life and control the things that are in your control.
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  And unfortunately in our industry, there is a lot that is
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  out of our control and we put so much stock in our individual
• 6:41
  success on our operations and things that are outside of our
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  control. And that naturally just brings
• 6:47
  in a lot of risk, a lot of uncertainty.
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  And I know that there are a lot of cattle producers all across
• 6:53
  the nation right now that desperately need rain and that
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  are in a situation in scenario where that is a completely
• 7:00
  uncontrollable factor. And the longevity and the next
• 7:05
  year of your operation is dependent or dependent on
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  whether the sky decides to dump some water on you or not, which
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  is such like a small thing, but also a massive thing.
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  Like, it seems so minuscule that we're like, yeah, we're betting
• 7:19
  our entire operation on if it rains, like if water comes out
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  of the sky, That is what we are betting our entire livelihoods
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  and our operation on right now. But at the same time, if you
• 7:27
  grew up in the cattle industry, you know the realities of how
• 7:30
  important that is. And there are just a lot of
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  people right now that are living in a lot of that uncontrollable
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  uncertainty that I think is putting a really big strain,
• 7:40
  like you said, on the state of the overall, overall cattle
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  market. And there's just there's a lot
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  of factors at play right now. Absolutely, yeah.
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  And I mean, we talked about heifer retention so much and you
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  think that that that 37% that heifers make up of the feed yard
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  is so, you know, the opposite of minuscule.
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  You think we should be back in the 32 to 34% range when you
• 8:02
  look at 2015's rebuilding after 2014's built bull market.
• 8:07
  But when you really get into the down and dirty of it and I'm
• 8:09
  guilty of it too, 60,000 head that we're back from this time
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  last year, March last year, that's quite a bit of cattle and
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  you're seeing a lot of, I mean the bread kettle market is just
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  astronomical. I mean these cattle are bringing
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  crazy prices. Everybody wants them.
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  The demand for them is there And I think that it's definitely
• 8:26
  happening, but it's happening. But as far as if it's
• 8:28
  sustainable going forward, I think that's really going to be
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  the big question. I've talked to a lot of
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  producers that back in the fall prices were good right before
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  that big downspin there for a while, everybody retained
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  heifers. And now Fast forward to
• 8:40
  mid-april, again, going back to drought, fires, all these
• 8:44
  different things, and people are now having to send them to town
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  because they just physically cannot support more cattle right
• 8:49
  now. Yeah.
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  It's the reality of the industry that we're in right now that a
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  lot of people are starting to make those early calls and
• 8:57
  starting to get those cattle moving to town.
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  And it's a trend that we've been seeing, especially across our
• 9:01
  western states. I know Dan is still swimming in
• 9:05
  a swamp right now. And I wish it was one of those
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  things that we could just wave our magic wand and we could move
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  the rain exactly where we need it and get a nice little even
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  dispersal. And Dan can get in the fields
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  and get planting and get out of the swamp that they're in in
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  Iowa. And the rest of us that
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  desperately need the rain could get some of it.
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  Because I know like this last week in Manhattan, we were
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  supposed to get absolutely slammed by things and it
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  developed completely on the eastern side of us and we didn't
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  get a lick of any weather. And I, we know that that's a
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  reality that a lot of people are in right now.
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  And so it just like when we go and we talk about heifer
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  retention, are we seeing indicators there?
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  We have been for months. Like we talked about this six
• 9:48
  months ago, 8 months ago. We, the indicators are there for
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  certain regions of the United States, but then there's also
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  regions of the United States that are selling off cows and
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  bread cows because they can't keep them.
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  They can't afford to keep them as we continue to go forward
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  into these summer months because we don't have the grass for
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  them. They don't have the hay forum
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  and it's just with the, and honestly, can you blame them?
• 10:09
  The cattle market life cattle market is at a place right now
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  where you look at the price that you could get for a bread
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  heifer, sending her to the sale barn.
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  There's not a whole lot of incentive to feed her hay
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  throughout the summer if you don't have the grass for it.
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  So I think that this is just an endless cycle that unfortunately
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  I don't see us ceasing to talk about this for a while.
• 10:29
  Yeah, for sure. And like you said, they just,
• 10:31
  they put rain in the forecast and then they push it back and
• 10:33
  they push it back and some areas get, some don't.
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  But I don't foresee even in our area really, I don't know how
• 10:39
  much rain we get even moving into the summer.
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  I know that they're forecasting it to be pretty dry and really,
• 10:45
  really hot into summer. So, you know, the levels that
• 10:48
  we're at now would be concerning mid June and we're mid-april.
• 10:53
  So yeah, it's pretty tough, but. So when we look at the cattle
• 10:57
  market itself going into summer, Samantha, what are kind of your
• 11:01
  thoughts on what we're seeing now versus what we're going to
• 11:05
  see as we continue to see this impact the industry?
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  You know, I think just kind of going back to that cattle on
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  feed report too and taking some of that out of there.
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  Again, kind of being careful as far as how much stock you put
• 11:16
  into it. But we are feeding these cattle
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  to heavier weights at some point.
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  My question is, you know, does that start to trickle back,
• 11:22
  trickle back to demand at the sale barn?
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  And then does it hit on the other end as well as far as
• 11:29
  getting cattle backed up at the feed yard because slaughter
• 11:31
  numbers are so low? So that's kind of concern #1
• 11:34
  There's also a hot topic around, like cattle imports from Mexico.
• 11:38
  We've been seeing that talked about more and more.
• 11:41
  It kind of faded out for a while and then it came back with a
• 11:43
  rumor and then Secretary Rollins did some talking on it.
• 11:47
  But it was really crazy to see how Mexico, you know, instantly
• 11:50
  came out last week and said there was a new case of New
• 11:52
  World screw the second that false report came out about
• 11:55
  opening the border July, May 7th.
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  And of course, at the time, you know, they didn't know it was
• 11:58
  false. But this is a prime example of
• 12:01
  what they're going to do and what their efforts are going to
• 12:03
  look like to keep it closed. I know to some degree, Rollins
• 12:06
  probably would like to get it open when the time's right, port
• 12:08
  by port, especially with approved treatments and sterile
• 12:11
  fly facilities. But like I've said, you know,
• 12:13
  before, Mexico has improved, has improved their facility so much,
• 12:16
  both from a feeding standpoint and a processing standpoint.
• 12:19
  I don't know how many cattle are actually going to come up.
• 12:22
  And they're going to probably pull out everything they have in
• 12:24
  their toolbox to try and keep that border close.
• 12:26
  But I do think, you know, as we move into summer, late summer,
• 12:30
  early fall, that's probably something we're going to
• 12:32
  continue to monitor. And then drought, I mean, what
• 12:35
  does rain truly look like? Do we have the tools to be able
• 12:39
  to maintain the cattle that we have and more cattle on top of
• 12:43
  that? I mean, heifer retention seems
• 12:44
  to be kind of the four letter word for some producers because
• 12:47
  they just can't, they don't want to hear about it.
• 12:48
  You know, we've had so many different things affect us that
• 12:51
  we didn't expect coming into 2026, whether it was fire,
• 12:54
  drought and all these different things.
• 12:56
  So I think just continuing to monitor that, continuing to hope
• 13:00
  for rain and see how that pencils out as we go into the
• 13:04
  rest of the year. But some things to be watching
• 13:07
  for sure. Absolutely.
• 13:08
  Well, as we round out this podcast, is there anything else
• 13:12
  that we need to hit on as far as the cattle market, current
• 13:16
  events, anything else today, Samantha?
• 13:17
  You know, I'm just a little concerned about beef demand.
• 13:21
  I know it's been talked about plenty.
• 13:23
  I don't know if I'm quite sold. I mean, we look at beef
• 13:26
  consumption per capita, it's went up year over year demands
• 13:29
  there, but we just aren't yet seeing the push for those
• 13:32
  middles yet. Yesterday select box beef cut
• 13:35
  out values jumped 7 bucks and I know you know there's less
• 13:38
  select product out there that has a lot to do with it.
• 13:41
  But seasonally, we are in a time post Easter where we should
• 13:44
  start to see demand pick up for those middle cuts as we head
• 13:47
  into grilling season and I'm just not seeing that yet.
• 13:50
  So one of those things where you kind of sit back, hopefully as
• 13:53
  we get into May, we start to see a little bit more of that push.
• 13:56
  But it seems to be consumers are more so leaning towards select
• 14:00
  product at a time where we normally would be getting our
• 14:02
  grills out and throwing a steak on.
• 14:04
  So let's kind of see how that translates going forward.
• 14:07
  Definitely something that I think a lot of us have some
• 14:10
  reservations about and hopefully we're all praying that we
• 14:13
  continue to see those numbers tick up as we go into summer
• 14:16
  grilling season. But a lot of things today that
• 14:18
  we talked about, Samantha, are just things that we as cattle
• 14:21
  producers need to be aware of and keep our fingers on the
• 14:25
  pulse on. Like it is just something that
• 14:28
  is a slight concern. It's something that we're maybe
• 14:30
  seeing some indicators on, whether it is drought or
• 14:32
  retention numbers or the border or beef demand or anything like
• 14:36
  that. All of those affect the cattle
• 14:38
  market. And we are in a very volatile
• 14:40
  time. But at the same time, it's also
• 14:43
  still a great day to be a cattleman.
• 14:44
  So praying for rain for all of those out there that need it.
• 14:47
  And as always, Samantha, thank you for coming on to another
• 14:50
  episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
• 14:52
  To all of our listeners, we will see you all on an episode next
• 14:55
  time. Have a good one y'all.