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NCAAF Week 5 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five. I don't even know what to
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: tell you above that I just don't want to do
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: this anymore. I have never seen anything like this. Man
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: with the slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Oh in four, I have not had a good season. Man,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: my browins.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: possibly have, act with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: To the slump, yes, praise, the slump discontinuous, The slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: it's so back with you? This is better off dead.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: College Football Week five edition trying to go too and
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: oh to start the week with the two places tonight,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: we already hit Virginia partially when we're in the BC
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: hat because this is what I got for Thomas Castellanos here,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the guy who decided to just quit on BC and
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: go join Florida State, like the trader that he is
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: very very nice seeing Florida State lose that game outright,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So we had Virginia correct there with the plus seven there.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We need to get Oregon State though Oregon State was
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: up fourteen to nothing in this game and now it's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: fourteen to ten at halftime. We don't need them, need
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: them to win, although it would be even nicer if
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: they did, but they they better cover this thing, man,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: because I said it was gonna be a lower scoring game.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: We got them at plus thirteen and a half.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: I don't think the fourteen was ever out there, so
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: let's get that one right as well. We're sitting at
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: two and two right now on the night, so the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: three and two will give us a win on the night. Obviously,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: if we.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Wind up going two and three, it'll be a loss.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Quite obviously, the two and two are actually a slight
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: win right now because we had the Virginia Tech money line.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I always recommend sprinkling on the money line, man, when
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: you have an underdog like that, especially of seven points
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: at home, you're basically saying you think they have a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: good chance to win that game outright, So definitely put
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: like ten percent of the bet on the money line.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: In that case. With the bigger on dogs, I still
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: recommend putting like one to three percent on the money
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: line just in case they do hit, just because you
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: don't want to really just leave that on the table there.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Baseball went one to one, which really irritated me because
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the Toronto Tampa Bay game full game went under the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: total and all the runs are scored in the first
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: five innings, so the first five was an over and
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: that's how I wanted to play the under because I
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: didn't want Toronto's bullpen included in the equation, So that's bullshit.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: That pissed me off. The under did hit in the
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Reds Brewers game, which if you went first five or
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: full game, it didn't matter. Those both hit, so that
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: was fine. So that's where we're sitting right now. The
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: WNBA game was a loser Minnesota. I can't believe they're
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: losing in that series right now, man, but I did.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: If you saw my bracket special, my pick to win
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the championship was Vegas and not Minnesota. And Vegas is
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: looking like they're probably gonna win now. Is they didn't
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: really have much difficulty beating Indiana on the road here
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: against them in that game. Let's get into college football
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: for this week, man, and pray that Oregon State. I've
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: finished this cover for me so that we have another
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: winning day here. I actually have the Arizona State game
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: on right now because it's about to go into overtime.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Probably I told you, guys, and lead to Arizona State.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: In that game, they've been pretty much losing the whole game.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's been a close game the whole way.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: They tied it up. It looks like they do have
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the ball late in the game, so I'm gonna potentially
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: be distracted here just because I kind of want to
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: see what happens. Let's get into Saturday, man, I'm gonna
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: try to just hit the big games. Obviously, I'll hit
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: all the ranked versus ranked matchups. I'll hit some of
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the other ones too that are close to being ranked matchups,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and maybe some of the other ones that I just
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: find interesting. Nate, what's up man, Thanks for hanging out?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Illinois plus seven? No, actually, but I will. I will
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: talk about that game. If you know how I handicapped,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: there's probably one play that I have that's pretty obvious.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have four plays, and I'll talk about the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: plays that I consider that were like on the short
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: list if I remember what they are, because there were
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: like two or three other ones that I was like
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: pretty close, so I will try to remember those, Charles,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: what's up man, Thanks for hanging out? So you know me,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I start by hitting all the ranked versus ranked matchups
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: ones that are not my actual plays. Then I will
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: do any of the other ones plus like the ones
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: that almost made plays for me, and then I will
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: go to my best bets at the end. Let's get
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: into it. Man, the breakdown. This video is always like
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: two hours long. Man, I hope it's not gonna be
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: this time because I'm in the middle of rewatching the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Depoded right now. And by the way, that movie that
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: de padded because it's about to leave Netflix. Although people
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: were like, dude, you should like Torrent everything, I'm like,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I don't want to incriminate myself, but I do everything. Man,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's just if it's on Netflix, I'll just I'll watch
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: it on there, just to give the movie some props,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: you know, especially in a movie like that that I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: know is good. It's all Boston, you know, Dude, I
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: didn't realize how base that movie is.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Like there's so much.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Like slurring and like just crude shit and like harassment
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: and stuff of the movie. I'm like, man, this movie
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: is way more base than I remembered it being. I
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: think it just seemed normal back in the day. Boston Toad. Yeah,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: if I can, if I could turn it on, I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: don't know, all right. Georgia Tech Number sixteen, Undefeated four
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and O going to Wake Forest, which is gonna be
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: on ESPN at noon. Pretty interesting game, really man, Georgia Tech,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: They're not. I mean, they are a pretty big favor
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: here there. I told you guys to start the I
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: don't know what he was even gonna say, but I
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: told you guys in my season preview that I liked
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I liked Georgia Tech to potentially fight for winning the
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: ACC this year. Man, because Haines King coming back. I
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: mean I constantly mentioned him. I have a man crush
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: on him obviously because I just think he's a solid quarterback.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: And they kind of fly under the radar.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: But Georgia Tech maybe not really under the raidar anymore
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: here after they beat Clemson whatever, but they are coming
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: off following that up with a win over Temple as well,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: where I think they covered that number two probably, Oh no,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: they didn't. Actually they were twenty four and a half
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: point favorites, so they did not cover. They only won
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: by twenty one. What's wrong with you, Georgia Tech. Now
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: they are going to Wake Forest here, they're going on
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the road, the only road game they've had all seasons
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: so far, as they're opener against Colorado.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: So to me, it's not like the easiest spot for
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech. And they do have.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Wake four. They do have a Virginia Tech up next.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, mean that's after a bye, but I mean
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: that could be. I mean, normally I would say that
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: might be caused for a look ahead because wake Forest
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: is really just kind of at the bottom of the accs,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: so they're kind of a team that you tend to overlook.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, I mean, maybe not necessarily in
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: this spot, but I do think this spot does set
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: up better for wake Forest anyway, because they are coming
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: out of a bye, and you know, I talk about
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: this when a team go into a buye on a
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: bad note, which I think they did. I mean, they
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: lost the game to NC State, and I liked wake
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Forest to cover the spread in that game. I think
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: they were like a seven a half point underdog or something,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: and they were winning the game by multiple scorers early
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and they were still winning I think twenty four to fourteen,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: and then they never scored again in the game. So
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: wake put up a decent performance in that game and
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: then just fell completely flat after that. But when a
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: team loses like that, they go into a buye, they
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: use that buy to fix things if they went into
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: the buy in a bad note, Although I don't know
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: if we consider that to be on a bad note though.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: That's the other thing, Like, they played NC.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: State pretty tough and it was their first loss of
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the season, so I could see it maybe even going
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: either way, or maybe they're just a little bit hungover.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: But I do think the buye will help them. They
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: get the extra week to prepare for this. This is
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game for them, hosting a ranked
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: team like Georgia Tech. So for me, slight lean to
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest in that game. Yeah, I mean the.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: Money is agreeing with that.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech fourteen point favorite, seven percent of tickets on them,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: fifty two of the cash though coming in on Wake
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So the money is agreeing with me on that one.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So that's a kind of that's my read on that game.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: USC and Illinois this is.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: A weird one man.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: USC ranked twenty first, undefeated at four and oh, Illinois
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: twenty third, three and one. USC is already two and
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: oh in conference to in Illinois own one. USC.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: I believe they played the more difficult schedules so far.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't know, Actually maybe not, because Illinois played Indiana,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: but USC did play Michigan State. I guess last week,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: so I don't. Actually maybe, yeah, Illinois, I guess has
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: played the more difficult schedule I thought USC had. But
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: USC they're putting up a lot of offense. Man with
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: my Ava quarterback, which I think was he the he
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: was the guy who was on UNLV, right, Yeah, I
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: remember that a couple of years ago. Yeah, he had
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: a big year for UNLV a couple of years ago,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean I do remember him. So he's
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: putting up some pretty decent numbers here. USC their offense
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: looks pretty insane right now, as they have a really
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: strong rushing attack in addition to the passing attacks. They're
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a very balanced offense here. They already did go on
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the road once to Purdue, so they're kind of used
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: to making this type of trip now is they had
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to do it a couple times last year, they did
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it this year. So if this if this was their
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: first road game of the season, I might feel maybe
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit differently about this game than I do.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: But since they already did go to Purdue.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Once and they're kind of just rolling along right now,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: they didn't cover last week against Michigan State, I don't
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: think this is a bad spot for usc Iman. If
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you want to argue, maybe there's a look ahead to Michigan.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so, though, because Illinois is a
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: ranked team. This is still a ranked, ranked matchup. They
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: have a bye after this before they play Michigan, and
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I don't really think this is a horrible travel spot,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: to be honest.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: This is another noontime game.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: And I talk about this too because people talk about, oh,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the you know, the West Coast team's going east, they
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: have to play the early start time where it's gonna
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: be like ten am there time. But I always talk
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: about how I think that's it's not necessarily good. But
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's a lot easier to do that than
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: it is to be an East Coast team going out
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: west and have to play a game that's gonna end
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: at like midnight your time, because you get fatigued at
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, right, Like for a game
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: like this in early start time, you wake up and
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: your energized at the beginning of the day, right, you
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: already have your energy. So I think it's actually easier
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to do that Illinois. I think Illinois is still just
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: completely overrated. I mean, they really haven't played really anybody.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, they beat Western Illinois. They beat Western Michigan,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: not a good team, Western Illinois, FCS team Western Michigan
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: in the MAC and the FBS, but not good. And
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they did beat Duke on the road. But this is
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: a major like this is a huge, a hugely misleading result.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I should say, if you watch any of this game,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Duke was in this game for a while, and then
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Duke the only reason they really lost the game is
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: because they lost the turnover, about a five to nothing thing.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Duke outgained Illinois in the game. Probably could have won
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: that game. I mean, they would have wasn't for the turnover.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So Illinois, I mean, I think they were ranked highly
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to start the season just because they had so many
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: guys returning from last year. But if those guys are
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: not really that great, I mean, how good is Illinois really?
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not sure that they're that good, and
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: I think that what happened last last week, they just
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: got absolutely obliterated in a big game by Indiana. When
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: you have a game like that where you it's like
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: a step up game, it's this hugely hyped game, big
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: ranked versus rank matchup, everybody goes crazy about it. Illinois
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: was ranked ninth in the country at that point, although
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I keep saying I don't even think they're I don't
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: think they're even a top twenty five team, to be honest, Illinois,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: but that was a huge game for them, and a
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: lot of times when you have that game, it's a
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: big emotional high. You know, you get up for that
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: game emotionally, and then you get absolutely crushed like that.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: I kind of call it.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Like the crashing down to Earth spot basically where you
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: you've just been like shown that you're not as good
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: as you thought you were. I think it's a bad
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: spot coming off of that. Man, Even though I know
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: this is Illinois home opener, so I'm not gonna give
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: this out as a play because it is their conference
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: home opener here, so it is still a big game
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: for them. But I think that is kind of a
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: crushing loss that they had last week. USC. Actually, I
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: think both teams did play last Saturday, right, So I
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: don't think there's any Yeah, I was gonna say I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: thought one of these teams had extra rest, but I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: don't think so. But USC, I think they're the better team.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: They're the significantly better team. Actually, the oddsmakers are telling
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: you this, So I think the public is gonna look
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: at this game and see, wait a minute, number twenty
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: one against number twenty three, and then they're gonna see
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the line on this to see USC is up from
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: five and a half to seven.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Now, like what gives?
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Right? I think the public's gonna have a tendency to say, well,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, I'm getting all these points at home
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: in a ranked versus ranked matchup like this, Like it
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: seems like there's a ton of value in getting a
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: lot of points there, right, But I don't think so. Again,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are telling you what to think about
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: this game. Like again, when the odds tell you something
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: different than what the rankings makers are telling you, listen
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: to the odds makers. So I lean to USC in
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: this game. The number did go up to seven, but
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: if you can find it at a six and a
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: half still, I mean that's probably what I would try
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: to get it at less than seven if you want
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: to lay the points with USC, which I think they
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: are the right side, But the money is coming in
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: on them, so the number.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Keeps going up.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Sixty two tickets seventy percent of cash on USC, so
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit public just because they've looked better
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: than Illinois, just because of Illinois. Really, it's just because
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: of Illinois getting destroyed last week is the only reason why.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: And yes, you're right. A lot of times i'll look
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: at a team when a team gets destroyed the previous week,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I'll actually want to play on that team. But in
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: this case, I do not want to for all the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: reasons that I just said. USC would be my lean
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: in that game, especially if it's still at below seven.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: At six and a hal half, Notre Dame at Arkansas,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: We're still in the noonslate here. Notre Dame ranked twenty
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: second in the country. I think Notre Dame is under ranked,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: and I actually think USC is too USC dude, USC.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Just to finish my thought on that, USC has a
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: really really good offense, like probably one of the best
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: offenses in college football right now if you look at
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: what their numbers are. So I know they haven't really
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: played good teams yet, but that offense is something. And
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the fact that Illinois just got shredded by Indiana, USC's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: offense might actually.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Be better than Indiana.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying they're gonna put up sixty points
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But I don't think Illinois is gonna be
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: able to stop USC's offense. Man Notre Dame. Yeah, at Arkansas,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: this is a big game. Notre Dame is a road
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: favor here. I think Notre Dame is under ranked because
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: they lost the first two games of the season, but
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: they lost to Miami and Texas A and M and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: we know those teams are pretty good. Arkansas is pretty
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: good as well.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Though this is an SEC team.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big game for both teams,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: so I think there's no real motivational edge either way.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Necessarily. I think both teams are going to show up
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: for this.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame got to win last week, and sometimes you know,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: when you're a winless team and you finally get a win,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: that's good, that helps you out, it propels you forward. There.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: So Notre Dame was able to win, and I think
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: maybe they even covered.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: It's not a good sign that they gave up thirty to.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Purdue, though, so I will say that it was a
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: twenty four and a half point spread, so Notre Dame
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: did cover on the closing number at least there winning
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: by twenty six.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: But when a team gets their first win of the season.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: That can like get that monkey off their back, you
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, And then that can help give
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: them momentum moving forward.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: So that is helpful to Notre Dame.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: But I'm starting to worry about this Notre Dame defense, man,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Like what is going on? Like this was a solid
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: defense last year and they gave up forty one to
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M. I know Texas A and M
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is a pretty good offense, but they give up thirty
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: to Purdue. I mean, Purdue is not a good offense.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Like what is going on here? So I worry about
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: this Notre Dame defense now. Man, Even though yeah, they
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: did win, I still think Notre Dame is better than
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what they're ranking indicates. I still think they're good. But
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: maybe it's time to worry a little bit. I mean,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: their offense can still move the ball, they could still
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: run the ball. They're still doing their thing their physical
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: defense or a physical team, But I think this defense
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: might be taking a step back this year. Now they
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: do have to go to Arkansas. It's tough to have
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: to go play an SEC team on the road.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: That's not easy to do.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: And you know Arkansas is going to get up for this,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and actually I might take it back a little bit
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: as far as the motivation is concerned. Arkansas might have
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra motivation here because this is
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: like their biggest home game so far. Their only FBS
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: home game so far was that easy win against Arkansas State,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: barely an FBS team, and now they're coming.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Off losing to Memphis.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: You remember I gave out Memphis on the show last
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: week because I said it was a bad spot for Arkansas.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: They just played oh Miss really close in their first
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: SEC game of the year, big game, and they had
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: this Notre Dame game coming up. So I think it
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: was a total flat spot for Arkansas last week, which
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: is why I went with Memphis. Memphis actually fell behind
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: in that game twenty eight to ten I think, and
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: they came back and won the game anyway, So pretty
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: ugly loss for Arkansas there, and a lot of times
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: when a team is a favorite like that and they
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: lose to an inferior team like that, you know again
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: it was in this case, it was because it was
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: a flat spot, so you can kind of explain why
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: they lost that game.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: But because they did lose that game.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: They'll also be refocused, but already they were gonna be
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: focused on this game. I think part of the reason
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: they played poorly at the end of that game was
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: because they probably thought they had the game in the
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: bag and they were already starting to look ahead to
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. So I think because they lost that game,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: it's gonna add extra focus them. I think they're gonna
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: be getting drilled like during the week off here. So
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I I do like Arkansas in this game to cover
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the spread. I had said after Notre Dame was zero
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: to two, I said Notre Dame was gonna win four
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the next five games, but I said the one they
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: were gonna lose was game to Arkansas. And I still
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: think that even though Notre Dame is the favorite, they're
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: down from six to four and a half here. So
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in in the Arkansas side seventy
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets, only sixty one percent of cash
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: on Notre Dame. So the public they see Notre Dame
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: win a game and put up fifty six points, now
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: they're just back on the Notre Dame train. They see
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame with the ranking next to them, and I
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: still think Notre Dame is better than the twenty second
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: best team. I still think they're like somewhere around, like
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: maybe the tenth best team in the nation until we
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: see them struggle further, I guess. But this is not
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: an easy game man, to have to go to Arkansas. Arkansas,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: they're pretty under the radar. There, a decent SEC team
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: were They pulled off some decent upsets last year too.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: They were pretty competitive against some of the best SEC
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: teams last year too. I think they beat Tennessee last year.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: They had some other pretty big games. So this Arkansas
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: team is definitely not bad. I think probably you're looking
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: at Arkansas having the better quarterback.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: I would say at least though Notre Dame is rolling
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: with car.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's still new to this, so it's probably
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: gonna be a pretty difficult spot. I know he had
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to play at Miami already, but Arkansas is also a
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: different story there. Arkansas is going to hit you with
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: probably some better defense there because it's an SEC defense.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: So those are my feelings on that game. Utah State
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: at Vandy. I know UTA states three and one, but
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think they've really played anybody. Vandy is ranked
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: and maybe over ranked. Yeah, Utah State. The only good
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: team they really played was Texas A and M, and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: they lost that game. Although they didn't do too badly
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: in that game that covered, but I think Texas A
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: and M kind of just took their foot off the gas.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: I think Texas A and M put their backups in
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: late in that game, so Utah State kind of scored
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: garbage time late in the game to make the score
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: more cosmetic. Utah State, this is a big game for
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: them because they're having to play an SEC team. They
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: did already travel to Texas A and M, so they're
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: kind of used to having to travel in this direction
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: now having to go to Vandy here.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Vandy is good. I don't know if they're deserving.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Him an eighteenth ranking in the entire country though, but
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: they still got Pavia there. He's doing his thing. Their
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: rushing attack hasn't really been that good though. Pavia dual
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: threat quarterback though. But Vandy, I mean, what do we
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: take away from what Vandy's done so far? Like, they
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: beat Virginia Tech, and Virginia Tech fired their coach like
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: a week after that, basic or two weeks after.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: That because they were playing so poorly.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: And they beat South Carolina who, as we can see,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: is not really that good.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: I gave out Vandy in that game.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: That was one of my plays that week, and sellers
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: who he runs South Carolina's offense.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: He's their only good offensive player.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Basically he went down in that game to injury too,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: like halfway through the game. So I don't really know
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: if we know how good Vandy really is. And they
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: have a big game up next week Man against Alabama.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: This is an out of conference game. This is a
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: much bigger game for Utah State. So I would lean
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: to Utah State plus the points in this game. That
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: would be what I would do here. I know, as
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: ugly as it sounds, Utah State, it's a It's Bronco
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Mendenhall time.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Now. They're at Utah State.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Man, he's their new coach this year, so they are
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: still trying to get used to a new system. But
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: I mean they're playing well against bad opponents, at least Vandy.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I think they're probably favored by a bit too much here,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: up from twenty two and a half to twenty two
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice seventy three percent of tickets
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: only sixty eight percent of the cash on them, so
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with me again there coming in
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: against Vandy, So that would be the way I would
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: lean in that one. Ohio State at Washington in this
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: interesting Big Ten matchup. As we moved to the three
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: thirty pm slate, this is gonna be on CBS and
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Paramount Plus.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: This is an interesting one, man.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Both teams are three in o Ohio State's ranked number
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: one in the country, even though they have a freshman quarterback,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: saying I think it is his name Ohio State. I mean,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: they haven't done anything wrong yet. Of course, they had
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: that one big win against Texas Texas. I mean I
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: was on Texas in that game because Ohio State was
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: rolling their true freshman quarterback or is he redshirt freshman?
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: I forget they're either.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: They're rolling their quarterback, their freshman quarterback out there though,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: and I just liked Texas in the revenge spot, the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: experienced spot.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Texas had opportunities to.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe win that game. Man, So I don't know what
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: we take away from that. Really it was a good
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: win for Ohio State, but since then they've only beaten Grambling,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: who's an FCS team, and then Ohio oh I know,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Ohio gets up for a game against Ohio State, but
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Ohio State just easily stopped Ohio's offense at the very
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: least of the Ohio Ohio State didn't put up that
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: many points against them. I believe Ohio covered the spread.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I think Ohio State was favored by over thirty in
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: that game and they didn't win by that much. But
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think this is a great spot for Ohio State. Man.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Ohio State did have a bye, but as I talk
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: about the bye, I mean, yeah, like you might use
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: it to prepare something for this Washington game.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: But when you have a b and everything's working, there's like.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Nothing that you can do to fix anything because nothing
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: is wrong. So I talk about this when you go
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: into a bye and you haven't even lost a game yet,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: it's not a very beneficial buy. I think if anything
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: is actually kind of a negative. And now Ohio has
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: to go out to Washington, to the Pacific Coast. I
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: know it's not a lake game. If it was a
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: late game, I think it would be even worse. But
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think this is a good spot for Ohio State.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: And if they had a bigger game up next, I
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: might be actually jumping in on the Washington side. With
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: a play here, but I'm still gonna lean to the
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Washington side of this game. Yeah, I just don't think
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: it's a good spot in Ohio State has not played
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: at Washington in I don't even know when, if ever,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I don't even know when they've actually had to go
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: out and play at Washington. It's a totally unfamiliar spot
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: for them. Ohio State hasn't even played on the road yet.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: They haven't even yet. They've They've played, yeah, only at
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: home so far, so they haven't played on the road
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: yet at all. They didn't play against Washington at all
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: last year, which was Washington's first season in the Big Ten.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: The team never played each other. So this is a
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar spot for Ohio State.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: So I don't like it.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: And for Washington, I mean, they haven't done anything wrong
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: yet either. They've won all three of their games so far.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: They played last week and it was a rivalry game
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: against Washington State, but they easily handle Washington State. This
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Washington team's been putting up some offense. Man, though I
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: know they did it against Colorado State, UC Davis and
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: FCS team and Washington State.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I know none of those teams are very good at least.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Washington State was a rivalry game, and I thought Washington
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: State would show up in that game.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: But Washington put up a ton of points on them.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: So even though Washington's defense hasn't exactly looked that great
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: so far, and Colorado State's pretty bad, like this is
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: a down year for them too, but Washington's been scoring
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: a lot and they have momentum and they're staying at
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: home here. I mean, they're just sitting there because they
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: have not played yet outside of the state of Washington.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: So I think it sets up a lot better for them. Man,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: they got the number one team coming into their house.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I think gonna show up for it big time. So yeah,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I like Washington in that one. If Ohio State loses
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the game outright, it's gonna make me look smart. And
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: I wish that I had given out a play on Washington.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: I can't quite get there with it, but I like
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Washington plus the points. It also looks way too easy, right.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: You have the number one ranked Ohio State team, which
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I think they are one of the top like three
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: four teams.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: Probably maybe they are deserving of the number.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: One ranking even but I mean, the line just looks
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: so easy to take Ohio State and it's already down
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: from nine to eight. Here, fifty three percent of tickets
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: on them, fifty percent of the cash evenly splits the money.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Is basically agreeing with the Washington side as well.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's the way I would lean in
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: that game, you know, me with my contrarianism.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Uh So, that's the way I lean in that one.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: LSU and oh Miss three point thirty pm Eastern ABC,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: huge SEC match up here at LSU. Fourth in the
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: country as far as the ranking is concerned, Ole Miss thirteenth.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Both teams are four and oh LSU. Want to know
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: in the SEC, ol Miss two and already in the
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: SEC at least according to this. So ESPN seems to
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: get some of these conference records wrong though. Looks like
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: the whatever the game was, Arizona State end and I
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: don't know who won the game. But anyway, this game,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: this is a big game, and there were some weird
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: storylines going on in this game. I mean it is
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: revenge for Old Miss because they lost at LSU last year,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: but I mean Ole Miss. Of course they have some
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: different personnel now. Jackson Dart played in that game last
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: year and Dart I believe beat LSU the year before
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: that at this stadium at Old Miss. I was a
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: high scoring game two years ago Old Miss beat LSU,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: which was Dart against Daniels.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure j D against j D Jay and Daniels.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Against Jackson Dart last year it was a nuss Meyer
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I believe. Who is the quarterback for LSU now against
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Dart last year I believe was the matchup and LSU
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: won a close game at LSU, So it is revenge
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: for all Miss. But I mean both teams are gonna
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: be motivated here, So I don't know if these storylines
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: really matter. But the biggest storyline, if you haven't heard,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: is that Lane Kiffin, who is Old Missus coach. His
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: daughter is now dating one of the one of the
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: linebackers on LSU and one of the what are they
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the Weeks brothers West Weeks Probably it's probably him, I
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: forget which one, but the best player on lscu's defense,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: whichever Week's brother, the dude.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Is he is banging Lane Kiffin's daughter.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So, like, does that set up like an extra like
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: an extra former motivation for All Miss. I don't know,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Like is the team gonna get up for their coach.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: She'd be like fuck that. Like, I don't know, man,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just so hilarious because you also had
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: that story like last year or two years ago or
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: some like chick came forward and said that some unnamed
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: SEC coach was like inner DMS or whatever, like hitting
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: on her, and everybody was like, it's Lane Kiffin, And
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, probably. There are so many weird storylines
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: going on here, men, but I don't know if that's
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: even gonna matter as far as this game is concerned.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: It's just a hilarious storyline. It might add some motivation,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: oh miss, I don't know. This game is also interesting
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: because LSU, all of a sudden, after their defense has
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: been terrible the last couple of years, their defense is
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: actually good this year and their offense is taking a
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: step back.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, they brought back nuss Meyer, like, oh, he's
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the heisman, you know, candidate whatever. I don't know if
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: he is now, because it's actually, oh miss, who has
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: the way better offense of these two teams right now
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: and the lesser of the two deepenses. You know me though,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I like defense, so that is something I'm considering in
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: this game as well. This is certainly not gonna be
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: a game we're gonna play. But LSU does have the
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: better defense LSU. I mean, we know they beat Clemson
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: to open the season. They did beat Florida, but Clemson
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: and Florida are both not playing very well right now,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: so those wins don't quite look as good. And that
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: game agets a Louisiana attacker. I gave out Louisiana attack
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: in that game. Plus the huge spread thirty seven, thirty
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: seven and a half whatever, LSU came nowhere close to
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: covering that number.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, Man, it's.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: LSU not quite as good as maybe we think that
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: they are because they're sitting at Fourida. Oh and they
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: had those two big wins that don't quite look as
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: good now. I don't know, and Florida outgained them. As
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I pointed out when I went with Florida last week,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Florida lost that game because of turnovers, so Florida could
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: have won that game at LSU's Maybe LSU is a
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: little bit overrated right now.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: They gotta go too, Ole miss. They haven't played on
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: the road since the opener at Clemson. I mean, they're
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: still gonna get up for it, but it's gonna be
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: a difficult game for them, having to go to ole Miss,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: difficult road environment. They're Old Miss coming off beating two
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Lane pretty easily, and that wasn't a very good spot.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: They were coming up that close SEC win against Arkansas
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: and then they had to play tu Lane with LSU
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: on deck. I mentioned that as a potential sandwich spot
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: last week. Ole Miss didn't really have any issues. They
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: just they won and covered against Tulane, so it wasn't
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: an issue for them at all. Uh Ole Miss has
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: wins against you against Kentucky and Arkansas. I mean, I
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: don't know if those wins are really any better than
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: what LSU has done, but still, I mean yeah, I
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: mean it's difficult for me to gauge this game man,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: to be honest, Like, I think you could argue that
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: it sets up a little bit better for Old Miss,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: like they did look better in that bad spot.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Like kind of a continuation there.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: LSU just had a really really easy game last week
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: as well though against Seala southeastn Louisiana. I think both
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: these teams did play last week, right, So there's no
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: no buy getting in the way of either team here
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: or helping either team helping or disrupting. Tough game to
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: read here, man, the money is coming in on LSU,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: though Old Miss is down from two and a half
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: to one and a half. Fifty percent of tickets on
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: LSU sixty four percent of the cash and LSU. I mean,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: do I lean that way because I go with just oh,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: the market read and the defense is the market read
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: and the better defense are both kind of leaning that way.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I might have to slightly lean
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: to LSU because of that. But usually when you see
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: like the better ranked team as an underdog like that,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the osmakers are basically telling you something, although they are
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: still saying that LSU is the better of these two
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: teams because Ole Miss is not getting the full home
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: field advantage here. But when you see that lesser ranked
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: team being a favorite, sometimes you do want to play
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: that or usually I think you do want to play
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: that lesser ranked team.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Because the public is gonna go the other way with it.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: But in this case, it looks like the professional money
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: is actually coming in on the LSU side. There so
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: some information for you in that game. I might agree
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: with it and slightly lean that way. A lot of
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: big games at three point thirty Man Auburn and Texas
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: A and M. Auburn is like close to being a
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: ranked team. I mean, they got knocked out of the
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: rankings just because they lost to Oklahoma last week. They
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: do have one other decent win, one other decent game,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: I guess, one decent win at Baylor, But I mean
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: that game against Oklahoma that was a close game and
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: and Auburn absolutely should have covered that game. I don't
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: know if you saw that game at the end, but
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma was winning by five, so they were not going
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: to cover. And then Auburn gave up a safety at
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the end of that game and that's how Oklahoma covered
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: that one. So really really stupid because I have, like,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: you know, some pick ems that I'm in and stuff,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and in my pick them, that's just the general pick them,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: like the ESPN one where you have to pick, like
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: they give you a stupid slate.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: Of games to pick.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: It's always ten games per week, and they always picked
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: just the ones that are on the ESPN networks or whatever.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: So some of those games suck.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: That was the game that I didn't mind picking, though,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: but I did have Auburn plus the six and a
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: half in that game, So that was a brutal way
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: to lose that game. But I think that's a brutal
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: loss for Auburn. Man, that was a close game. That
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: was a big game because it's, you know, the Jackson
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Arnold game where he's Auburn's quarterback. Now he used to
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: play for Oklahoma, so he returned to Oklahoma. It's a
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: tough game, man. Now they have to play a second
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: straight road game at college. They do have Georgia up
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: next to which I don't know if they have a bye,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: but that is a big game as well.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a big game against Texas A
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: and M.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Though they do have a bye after this, but coming
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: off that Oklahoma game is going to be difficult. Man.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: I also talk about when you lose your first game
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: of the season, when you're rolling along and you take
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: your first loss of the season, sometimes that.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: Hangs you over into the next game two. So it's
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: not really a good spot for Auburn.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: The question is how good of a spot is it
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: for Texas A and M.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: I do think Texas A and M is good.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: The only big win that they have so far as
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the win against Notre Dame, but that was on the road.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty good win. Man, there were six and
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs in that game. That is a
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: strong win for Texas A and M. One by one
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: close game. Taxa, A and M's defense isn't exactly looking
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: that great though. At UTSA. I mean, I know UTSA
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: is not that bad and they step up for an
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: in state big brother there. So they put up twenty
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: four against A and M, and then Utah State put
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: up twenty two against them. Maybe U Doest States is
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: not quite as bad as we kind of thought they
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: were going to be coming into the season though. But
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame putting up forty is a bit of a
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: concern too. Like with Texas A and M. With Mike Elka,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: you kind of expect their depense to be good. Who knows,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: But Texas A and M is coming into this game
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: off of a bye, so they do have an extra
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: week to prepare for this game, and maybe they will
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: use that week to fix some things with their defense.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. Maybe because they've won three games
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: in a row.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: And I talk about when you get hit with a
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: buy like this, when you haven't lost a game yet,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: you're coming off a huge win like that, Sometimes that
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: buy is not helpful to you. So I could see
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: that by going either way for Texas A and M,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: to be honest, but I do think the spot is
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: still worse for Auburn.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: I won't be a.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Play for me, but I will lean to Texas A
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: and M in this game. The money is basically agreeing
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: with that. It did go down from seven and a
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: half to seven. I think it might be six and
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: a half out there too, So if you can find
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: six and a half, especially at Texas A and M,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: that would probably be the way I would go. I
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: would lay that. I wouldn't lay seven and a half.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I mean key number seven. Obviously, I lay up to
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: seven with Texas A and M if I was gonna
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: play this game, but I wouldn't want to lay the
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: hook and have to have them win by more than
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: a touchdown to even to even get the money at
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: all and avoid losing. Sixty seven percent of tickets are
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: on A and M because they are the ranked team,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the ranked ninth in the country now, so they're a
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: top ranked team.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: I think they're ranked almost.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Appropriately in their case, but seventy two percent of the
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: cash also coming on Texas A and M, so some
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: of the cash is agreeing with it. I will agree
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: with it as well. Soul Food place near Auburn. Yeah,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: let me know what the name of it is. Not
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: that I'm gonna be down there anytime soon, but you know, Indiana, Iowa,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I mus skip for now, but you probably know what
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I'm doing there. SEC Network at four point fifteen pm Eastern,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: we have Tennessee ranked fifteenth in the country, a one
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: loss team with their only loss being to Georgia, which
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: there's no real shame in that, going up against Mississippi State,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: who is four and oh, Mississippi State been near the
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: bottom of the SEC recently, Man, but I told you
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: they were kind of on their way back up, like
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: they're they were kind of rebuilding for a little bit.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: And I know, I don't think they played a difficult
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: schedule so far, but I think they're definitely improving and
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: they could give Tennessee some issues here. Man. Potentially, if
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Tennessee was coming off that Georgia game and this was
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the game this week, I would definitely be looking to
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: play Mississippi State here. I still think Mississippi State is
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: probably the right side Tennessee. I mean all their wins
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: are against I mean, none of their wins are.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Impressive, let's put it that way.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: They beat Syracuse East Tennessee State, who is a ANFCS team,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: and they beat UA B. And you remember Tennessee last year,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: at least with with Josh hypebel Tennessee just shredded the
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: out of conference slate that they had, putting up a
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: ton of points. And then when they started SEC play,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: their offense took a huge step back.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: But again it was with Nico as their.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Quarterback there and he's not there anymore. So maybe what
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: they have going on here will be better. But I
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, Aggie Are he did put up
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of yards against Georgia, so maybe this offense
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: is better. It doesn't look like they're really that proficient
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: in running the football. We'll see what happens man with
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: this Tennessee offense. They did put up a lot of
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: points against Georgia, though they took Georgia into overtime forty
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: four to forty one loss. But again it was a
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: little bit higher scoring than it was in regulation because
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: it went into overtime, but it was only a six
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: to three score in overtime, so it was still a
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: pretty high scoring game there for Tennessee. Tennessee didn't cover
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: last week. By the way, I should have mentioned that
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: game UAB. It was one of those huge spreads though.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: I was just kind of like, I'm not gonna pay
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: attention to that game. But UAB I believe covered that
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: number even though Tennessee won by whatever that is, thirty
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: two points. Yeah, they were thirty eight and a half
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: point favorite. So Tennessee, I mean, coming up that Georgia game, obviously,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: you can't blame them for not covering the spread in
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: that game, and they had another SEC game up next.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: But I think this is still gonna be difficult for
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Tennessee because this is.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: Their first true road game of the entire season.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: They played a neutral site game against Syracuse, but this
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: is gonna be their first true road test of the season, man,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: So it's not gonna be easy. Mississippi State really pretty
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: strong home field advantage, man. If you are unfamiliar with
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: the Mississippi State home advantage there, they they have cow bells,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: that's what they do. They ring a lot of cow bells.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: At Mississippi State. Mississippi State, their one big win was
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: against Arizona State, who was ranked at the time twelve,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: who I think they've slipped out of the rankings. Decent
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: win though, I mean Mississippi State was a home underdog
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in that game and they won, so not a terrible win.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: They were able to win on the road at Southern Miss.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: And Southern Miss isn't that bad. I mean their Marshall
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: basically from last year, who was pretty decent last year. Marshall,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: like all their guys went to Southern Miss this year.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: And then Northern Illinois is actually not that bad of
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a MAC team. They can play defense at least in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State put up thirty eight on Northern Illinois. So
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Mississippi State, they're looking like they're definitely improving.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Man, That's what I'll say.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens with a shape in if that's
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: hey pronounced their quarterback there. He hasn't been that good
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the last two games, but maybe they took him out
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: against those teams because they were blowout wins. So I
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: don't know, but I think he's been around for a
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: while and I think he was hurt last year to
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: actually shape, and I think he's been with Mississippi State
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: for a while, but he got hurt last year, so
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: he was out for like a huge portion of the season.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: But he is back. So yeah, I like, I like
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State in that game. Not a play for me,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: but I will lean that way. Tennessee down from nine
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: and a half to seven and a half, so the
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Mississippi State side. If
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: you want Mississippi State, I would say you got to
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: take at least the plus seven with them, preferably the
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: seven and a half get you know, over a touchdown.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: There sixty nine percent of tickets on Tennessee, sixty two
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash though on Mississippi State. So that
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: is the way that I will lean. Cole doesn't live
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: in a double wide anymore. He has a house now
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: back in shape. Yeah, that's right shape, and exactly he's
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: he's no longer Missshapen. That's right. Mississippi State is no
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: longer missshape. And there you go.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: And then we jumped to the night slate.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Here. ESPN's got Arizona at Iowa State in this Big
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: twelve matchup. Iowa State's rate fourteenth in the country. They're
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: four and oh Arizona's undefeated.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: At three and zero.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a big game for both teams here man,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. We don't know how impressive Iowa State is
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, they won that game at Dublin,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: and I think they probably should have lost the game.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, not just because I gave out Kansas State.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: As a play there, but Kansas State had they outgained
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Iowa State in that game and it was kind of
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: just some turnovers.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: That kind of led to Kansas State's demise there.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: I know, Iowa State was in a really bad spot
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: coming home from that with Iowa up next, and they
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: still crushed South Dakota and that was one of my losers,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: so that was bad. Iowa State did get the win
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: against Iowa So that was a big win last week.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Not impressive though Iowa State, but it was their first
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: road games, you remember, or maybe that was that two
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: weeks ago, now let me say I think it was. Yeah,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: it was two weeks ago. So you remember I mentioned
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: that they were coming off that big win over Iowa.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a bit of a letdown spot
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: going to Arkansas State.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I thought Arkansas State would.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Give them kind of a run for their money there,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: and they did so. Iowa State didn't look very impressive there.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's offense really hasn't been very impressive. Though becked
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: their quarterback or returned from last year. He lost like
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: his top two wide receivers from last year. He has
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: not put up very impressive numbers so far. Man against
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the two FBS teams that he faced, he didn't even
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: reach two hundred yards passing in either of those against
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Kansas State and Iowa. Kansas State their defense is still
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: are right, although their secondary isn't really that good. I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: don't think at Iowa. Iowa does have a good defense.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: So he didn't do well against Iowa, but that was
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: kind of expected, but still he struggled. Man, Yeah, I
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: know Arizona's not really that good defense, but Iowa State,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they're as good as their
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: ranking tells you. At least I don't think they're the
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: fourteenth best team in the country. I'm not even sure
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: that they're one of the top twenty five teams, to
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: be honest, I think they might be somewhere around like thirty.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Like if the Oddsmakers and the power right these guys
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: were to tell you where they actually are. They're also
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, and you know, I keep
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: talking about this, when you go into a buye on
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: a win streak and you haven't lost a game yet,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: that buy can be a little bit disruptive coming out
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: of that by. Although I know they didn't play well
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: against Arkansas State, so that was a game they should
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: have won way more easily than that, So they didn't
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: exactly go into the bye on a high note. So
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: they might be using that buy to fix some things.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: So I'm not quite gonna get there with this one.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: But I am gonna slightly lean to Arizona in this game.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: But I know Arizona, we don't really know if they're
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: any good yet. I mean, they did beat Kansas State,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: which was again I gave out Kansas State.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: In that game another loser.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Arizona did actually beat them, though if you look at
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: the statistics, Kansas State was really bad in that game.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Arizona should have actually won the game more easily than
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: they did.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: So there is that.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: But Arizona actually went into a bye as well, so
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the bye is actually pretty much the same for both teams.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Just Arizona has even has an additional day off because
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: they played on Friday, so both teams are actually coming
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: out of buys here so and both teams were undefeated,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: so both teams that buy could be a little bit disruptive.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Though for Arizona they went into it on a higher
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: note because they won that primetime game against Kansas State,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: So the spot isn't really very good for Arizona either,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: and it is their first road game of the season,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: so that makes it a little bit more difficult too.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna get there with this one. Man,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: I can't do it.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: But I do think just generally, Iowa State is a
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: little bit overrated, so and the money is agreeing with
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: me on that with Arizona, but you could have gotten
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: seven earlier in the week that I think it was
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: very briefly out there. I think it was mostly six
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: and a half a couple days ago, but it's all
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the way down to four and a half with Iowa
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: State being the favorite, sixty two percent of tickets on them,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash though coming in on
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: the Arizona side, So I will agree with the market
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: reading that one as well. Towards Arizona, but it's not
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: a totally strong.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: Opinion of mine.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: I have heard some professional opinions on the Arizona side
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: in that game, though, so do with that information what
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: you will. I guess Arizona, we still don't really know
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: what they are yet, And if you looked at when
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: I ran down their schedule there, their quarterback actually hasn't
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: been that impressive in those games either. So I'm going
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: to just keep in mind there that though neither of
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: those offenses are that impressive this year, which is probably
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: why we have a pretty low total here, from down
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: from forty nine to forty eight and a half. But
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: again I talk about when the total is low, that
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: means the points are more valuable, So you do want
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: to look towards taking the points a lot of times
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: in games like that with low totals. Number six Oregon
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: at number three Penn State, huge big ten matchup here
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: which is gonna be.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: On NBC and Peacock at seven thirty pm Eastern.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: This is a big one man. Oregon's undefeated at four
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: and oh Penn State undefeated at three and zero. Oregon,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, they don't really have any impressive wins yet,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: although they've been putting up some decent offense. Their best
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: win I guess is their road win against Northwestern, which
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: is not saying a lot because Northwestern has not really
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: done anything good since they fired up Pat Fitzgerald. I
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: think the year that they fired and they actually finished
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: the season really well, but since then they have not
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: been good.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: That was a road game though for Oregon, and I
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: think Oregon.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Didn't cover that game, but yeah, I mean, not exactly
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: an impressive performance from Oregon in that game. They followed
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: it up beating Oregon State soundly though last week. But still,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: how good.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Is Oregon I don't really know.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, it seems it actually seems like Oregon might
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: have an improved defense this year, because I think they
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: were way more offensive than defensive last year because that's
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: kind of what they do. That's where they come from
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: from the old Pac twelve, which is always more like
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: finesse than physicality. So I was saying, go to the
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: Big ten, could, you know, be a struggle for teams
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: like that, But Oregon's adapted pretty well. I mean, we
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: know they made the playoff last year, but they didn't
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: do well against Ohio State obviously in the Rose Bowl,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: which was one of my plays that I gave out
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: at the early part of the year this year.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Oregon, I.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: Mean, it seems like their offense is going to continue
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: to be pretty good here, but it seems like their
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: date mens is improving. But usually they you would think
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: they would struggle with like a physical team like Penn
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: State here, and this is gonna be their biggest They're
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: they're like truest tests of the year so far, Like
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: they have not faced anybody anywhere near as good as
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Penn State so far this year. I do think Oregon
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: is probably like a top five team right now, though
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: I will say that, and I think Penn State is
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: probably close to it as well. The oddsmakers are actually
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: telling you that Oregon is the slightly better team here
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: when we go to look at the what the number
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: is here. But again, it's a tough spot for them.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: I know, they did go to Northwestern, so they are
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: used to traveling now because they did go to the
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Chicago era Northwestern. So having to go to the Pennsylvania
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: area wherever Penn State is, Central Pennsylvania or whatever, somewhere
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: close ish to Pittsburgh, I think that that's not gonna
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: be as difficult for them now that they did play
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: at Northwestern, but it is still gonna be difficult. And
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: you know that Penn State is gonna have this game
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: circled because this is a rematch of the Big Ten
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Championship from last year and that was a close, high
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: scoring game and Oregon won the game. So it is
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for Penn State. And it's one of
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: the spots where revenge matters more because that was the
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: Big Ten title game.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: Man, so that was a big game.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: The team's never matched up in the playoffs though, and
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Penn State did actually make it further in the playoffs
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: right like they made it to the semifinals, I believe
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: in lost to Notre Dame in the semifinals, so Penn
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: State did actually outlast Oregon in the in the playoffs there.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: But even so, I mean, it is still a revenge
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: game because last time these two teams faced each other
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: was the Big Ten title game and Penn State lost
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: the game. Now, Penn State, they really haven't played anybody yet.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: They played Nevada Florida International and Villanovo is an FCS team,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: although they're not a bad FCS team.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: Usually I don't know if they are this year or not.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: But Penn State, yeah, they played nobody so far, so yeah,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: they played one of the weakest schedules probably in the
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: entire country so far. So how good are they we
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: don't really know yet. And they're coming out of a
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: buy here. But is that buy gonna help them? Maybe?
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Because that buye it does mean they get to use
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: that buy to prepare for this. And you know they've
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: probably they've had this game circled all year, man, so's
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: it's possible they like barely prepared for these first three games,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I mean these games really I think
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: just easy for them in Penn State, Whereas I think
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Oregon has a little bit of a better defense this
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: year than they did last year. I think Penn State
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: improved their offense from what they had last year because
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: al Or their quarterback. He's not really that good, but
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: they I don't think he is, but they gave him
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: some other pieces around him. I do think al Or
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: I think he was probably not in the game like
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: late in these games here, So if you look at
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: it his numbers, it's like, yeah, his numbers don't look good.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: Just throwing two hundred.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Yards a game basically, but I think they probably took
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: him out they didn't really need him to do much
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: in those games. I still don't think he's that good though,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. I mean, he's been in high pressure
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: situations before, and now they gave him some offensive talent
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: around him to help improve their offense.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: They do have a bye that buy could maybe potentially
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: disrupt their winning momentum, but I do think they're gonna
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: use that buy to prepare something for this game.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: It is still gonna be difficult for Oregon because Oregon.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Is not played at Happy Valley before, and it is
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: not happy for the opponents. Man, and it's gonna be
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: a wide out game. You know, Penn State they choose
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: I think one game a year to be a huge
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: white out game, and this is gonna be it. So
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Oregon has not had to play in that environment for
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: that is an insane environment. It's a night game, so
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: it makes it even crazier because when it's a night game,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: you know, the students all day tailgating again even more drunk,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: like they don't have time to get drunk enough for
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: the new game, right, but when it's a night game,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have a rowdy, totally wasted crowd, and it's
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be even crazier for the night game, like we
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: saw with Virginia to that crowd was insane, Dude, if
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: you didn't watch any of the games tonight, even it
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: was Virginia, Like, you don't expect a crowd to be
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: like that. For Virginia. The crowd was insane and they
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: rushed the field. Was one of the greatest field rushings
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: or field stormings or whatever.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: That I've ever seen.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: Man. It was just like as the game ended, people
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: were already rushing onto the field, like I think the
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: defensive back and the wide receiver on the last pass
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: probably couldn't even get off.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: The field at all. Everybody was already rushing.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: It was just like a sea of people that you
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: couldn't even see a spot on the field that wasn't
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: covered by people.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: It was crazy tonight, man.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: But the Penn State environment is gonna be absolutely nuts
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: like that, and you they're probably gonna storm the field
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: if they do win this game, even though they're actually
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: ranked higher than Oregon. But yeah, so even though I
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: would normally say that when you have a team that's
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: ranked high or like, the public is gonna tend to
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: want to be on that team that's ranked as the
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: better ranked team right which is Penn State here. But
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: the public is not on Penn State here. The public
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't really trust Penn State's offense. I don't think public
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Oregon, man. It's kind of carrying
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: over from what they saw last year. They know this
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Oregon team could put up a ton of points, and
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: that is where they're going sixty seven percent of the
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: tickets and only sixty percent of the cash on Oregon.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: You know. I talk about this. When you see a
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: road team that's getting the public action like this and
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: they're a road underdog and they're public like that, you
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: want to look towards the home team, man. You want
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: to look to that favorite because you know you're getting
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: a solid team and the public doesn't want them. So
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good. Penn State is up from three to
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: three and a half, though, I don't think you're gonna
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: find the three anymore. So obviously, if you want it
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: to lay Penn State at the best number you had
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: to lay the three, maybe it'll come back down a
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: Tomorrow because Oregon is public.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. Right now, it's sitting at three
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice, I would probably still lay it,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: though Penn State at three and a half, maybe even
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: at four. I know three is a lot better because
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: it's the key number, and then if they win by
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: exactly a field goal to push so that would be
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. But I still lean that way.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: I think Penn State does get this game, big revenge
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: spot from them coming out of a bye very hostile environment.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the way I would lean. In that game.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't have wanted to be there. Yeah, well, I
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: mean you.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Might get crushed by the crowd.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: I guess seven thirty on ABC, and you guys can
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: check me if I'm wrong. But this might be the
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: ESPN Game Day game because it is ABC, it's Alabama
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: and Georgia. I mean probably that's the game day game,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: right because it's such a huge matchup. Number seventeen ranked
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Alabama who's two and one, and number five ranked Georgia
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: three and zero. Both teams had buys last week, so
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: that's I mean, you know that the schedule makers do
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: that intentionally, right, They give you their chosen sons. Basically,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: these two teams, Alabama and Georgia, they both get a
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: bye coming into this game, so they both get to
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: have an extra week to prepare for this. But the
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you something with this game, man. Alabama's
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: ranked seventeenth in the country, George's ranked fifth.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: But why is Georgia only a two and a half
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: point favorite here?
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: In that if they're the better team plus home field advantage,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: you would expect to be like a four and a
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: half five point favorite here, and that is not the case.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers are telling you Alabama is actually
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams here. Georgia down for
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: three and a half to two and a half here,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: sixty and a half percent of tickets on them, only
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash. If you want Alabama, you'll
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: probably still get a three out there. Probably the three
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: and a half's are gone. I would still probably take
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: it at plus three. Georgia's the public side, man, because
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: again people just look and see, oh, George's undefeated. They
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: see the rankings and they go, oh, that's the way
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: that I'm gonna go here. And I think people just
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: don't like alabam Amma. Right now, Alabama, they just haven't
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: really been that great with Debor so far.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: But remember last.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Year was his first season with Alabama, so you know
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: they're growing pains there. And now Alabama does have a
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: new quarterback this year, freshman quarterback Simpson, who looks like
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: he's pretty good, though, Man, so is he gonna do
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: well in this very hostile environment. I don't know. We'll see.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: But he does have one road game out of the way,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: which we talked about earlier today this morning, because that
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: was at Florida State, which we'll talk about in a minute.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: But for whatever reason, George is getting the public action, man,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: and the money is disagreeing with that. So I will
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: agree with where the money is. I do think Alabama
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: is under ranked right now, man. I think they're significantly
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: better than the seventeenth team of the country. I think
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Georgia maybe a little bit over ranked too. Georgia took
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: a step back last year, man, And I know they're
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: going with Gunner Stockton now this year. And I know
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: he was in the system last year, so he knows
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: the system. But this is his first season where he's
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: you know, the load is on him now to carry
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: the team, So how is he gonna respond to it
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: remains to be seen a little bit. I know Alabama's
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: got a very inexperienced quarterback as well. I know they
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: haven't played anybody yet, so that's kind of the issue here.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: They're getting docked. Like the reason why the rank seventeen
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: is because they lost at Florida State. Alabama was a
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: double digit favorite in that game. Alabama's rushing attack hasn't
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: really gotten going, man, That's kind of the problem. Simpson
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: has been pretty good behind center there as a quarterback,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: with their rushing attack isn't good. So Alabama usually you
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: remember them being like a punishing like rushing attack, and
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: they're not right now. But they seem a little bit imbalanced, man.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: So that is kind of the problem with Alabama's offense.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: They're just a very pass heavy attack now. But they
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: were able to shred you All Monroe. Coming out of
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: that game against Florida State. They were just really really angry,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: I think, and they just destroyed you All Monroe. And
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: then they played well again the following week against Wisconsin.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: But I know Wisconsin is not very good, so what
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: can you really take away from that? I don't know.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: They have to go on the road to face Georgia.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: But at least Simpson did get that road game out
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: of the way at Florida State, so he knows what
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be like in.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: A hostile environment Georgia.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: So Alabama did go into a buy on a good
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: note though, but both teams did, right. So I talk
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: about that when a team goes into a bye and
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: they've won the games going into the bye, they go
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: in on a good note, It's like, well, what do
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: you have to fix in the buy? But in this case,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna be spending that buy
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: preparing for this game, right. But Georgia went into the
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: buy on the higher note. Man, They went into the
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: by beating Tennessee. That was another big game on the road.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: They went in and beat Tennessee. Gunner stocked and put
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: up some good numbers in that game for Georgia, and
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Georgia's rushing attack not totally impressive there so far. So
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: both teams look like they're kind of pass heavy attacks
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: this year, so we will see. But I think Georgia
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the buye is a little bit more of a disadvantage
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: to them because of that. This is gonna be revenged
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: because Alabama beat them last year. If you remember that game,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: it was this crazy game that was back and forth,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: and it looked like Georgia was gonna win with like
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: this crazy long pass to take the lead late in
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: the game, and then Alabama responded with a long pass
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: of their own, I believe, to win the game. So Georgia,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: it is revenge for Georgia because they did lose at
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Alabama last year in that game. But what else is
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: new Man and Carson Beck was the quarterback back then,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: so it was not Gunner Stockton, although Stockton was the
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: backup at that point, so he was there for it.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. But the thing about Georgia with Kirby
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Smart and the Kirby Smart era over the last few years,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: although I know they lost a couple additional games last year,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: but basically Georgia would pretty much win against everybody except Alabama.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: It was like they could never beat Alabama. I know
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: most of that was with Saban, but Alabama would just
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: always beat Georgia. That's the thing.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Georgia has only won one game in the.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Last five games that they played against Alabama. Alabama just
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: has their number and Alabama did beat them again last year.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: I know it's gonna set up a revenge spot for Georgia,
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: but for whatever reason, Georgia does not play well against Alabama.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: I know debores not Saban. Saban had his thing where
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: he knew how to beat Kirby smart, but maybe some
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: of that knowledge is still there. But for the most part,
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I just think Alabama is very underrated right I think
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Alabama is probably actually like a top ten team right now.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: I think they have a very good shot to make
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: the playoffs here. So Alabama getting points I think is
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: the right move in this game. And again the os
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: makers are basically telling you what you need to know.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: With Georgia not even getting a full home field advantage
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: on the line, they're the public thinking that it actually
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: looks like value on Georgia. But I actually think it
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: almost looks too easy to lay the points with Georgia
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: on that one. And again, Alabama seems to have their
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: number recently, so we'll go, We'll lean to Alabama and
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: that one. It's not a play for me, though Alabama
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: has more to prove. Well, yeah, I mean, it is
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: true that Georgia is the team of the two that
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: does have the best win out of the two for sure.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Georgia beat Tennessee, so that is something. Last game on
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: the board late night ten to fifteen pm Eastern on ESPN,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: we have the rematch of the Alamo Bowl BYU and Colorado.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: And BYU won the Alamo Bowl pretty easily last year.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: But that was Colorado with Sanders and Travis Hunter. But
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: I think they only played like half the game.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: If I remember correctly.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Is that was that the case something like that? I
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: don't even remember. But it's a different Colorado team this year,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: but it is not as good of a Colorado team. However.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: BYU is in the rankings now at twenty fifth, and
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally sure that it's deserved a lot of
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: times when a team is unranked and then they first
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: get into the rankings, they sometimes they like immediately have
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: a letdown and then they fall right back out of
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: the rankings, And that could be potentially what's going on
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: here with BYU, because like, what have they really done
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: so far? They beat Portland State, an FCS team, who cares?
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: They beat Stanford both of those at home. Stanford really
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: not a good team right now. I mean they have
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Frank right there. Now they're implementing a new system, changed
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: a ton of their personnel, so that's not an impressive win.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: And then they did go on the road. They had
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: to go east and beat East Carolina. I know, I
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: thought East Carolina would cover that number. So BYU that
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: was that's their best win, which is kind of ridiculous.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Their best win is against East Carolina. It was just
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: because it was on the road, and I thought East
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina would give them some problems and it didn't really happen.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: But BYU still hasn't really proven a whole lot. Man.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be their conference opener.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean they will show up for it,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, I just think that maybe
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Colorado will show up with even a little bit more motivation. Here.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: BYU is having to travel back from the East, which
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: is not as easy to do. Colorado's just staying out
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: in the mountain area there as they beat Wyoming last week,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: which not an impressive win. But Colorado, I mean they
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: were at least somewhat battle tested by having to play
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tack in Houston.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: Those are not terrible teams. We know Georgia Tack is ranked.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Now, so BYU probably. I mean, I would guess they're
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: not as good as Georgia Tech is. I mean, the
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: rankings makers are telling you that, but they don't tell you,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: you know, they don't give you the accurate information. But
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I still think Georgia Tech probably is a better team
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: than BYU Colorado. This is gonna be their conference home
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: opener as well, so crowd's probably gonna be there for
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of revenge for the alumal balling. I
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: know a lot of the personnel is different, but Deion
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Sanders is still there or whatever. I'll slightly lean to
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: Colorado in this one by use up from five and
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: a half to six and a half. It looks like
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: it might hit sevens. You might get the key number
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: of a touchdown on Colorado if that's what you want
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: in that game. Eighty four percent of tickets, only sixty
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on it. So I will
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: lean slightly to Colorado plus the points in that one.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: But I don't love it, but that is a lean
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: for me in that one. As far as the rest
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: of these games, I mean, Duke and Syracuse, both these
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: teams are coming off big games. Duke played NC State
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: last week a big win in that North Carolina rivalry,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: and now they're having to go up to Syracuse, which
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes these Southern teams they have to go up north, they.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: Don't do as well.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Though it's not really I mean, the weather doesn't really
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: matter because Syracuse plays in a dome, so it doesn't
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: really matter, but still the travel is just kind of
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit weird. And even weird or they have
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: to go out to the Pacific Coast next week for
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: a late night game, so that's even worse. But Duke
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: could be in a little bit of a letdown spot there.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: The problem is Syracuse is also going to be in
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot because they just went to Clemson and
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: beat them on the road.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what's going on with Clemson. Man
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: a team that made the playoffs last year and they
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: returned all their players, and they just looked like ass
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: this year. They couldn't even beat Syracuse at home. And
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: the Syracuse team doesn't have McCord do they had last year.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: It's just like the one reason why Syracuse was good
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: last year.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: That's just crazy. So I think.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: Syracuse is actually even in the bigger letdown spot here. Man,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: that was a ridiculous upset win. So both teams are
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: in bad but I think Syracuse is in the worst spot,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: and Duke is actually laying points on the road at Syracuse.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: It's just kind of ridiculous to see. And people are
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: gonna see Duke is two and two, Syracuse is three
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: and one and think, well, wait a minute, Syracuse, how
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: do they have the better record and they're getting points
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: at home? Well, the odspeakers are telling you Syracuse sucks,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: like they're bad enough. The Duke is that much of
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the road. So I would lean to
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Duke in this game, but I don't really want to
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: touch it with Duke also being in somewhat of a
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: letdown spot. But I do think Syracuse is in the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: worst letdown spot and they're not as good as their
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: record looks. I mean, one of their wins they almost
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: lost at home to yuk On. So how good is
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Syracuse really? They should have lost probably fifty eight percent
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Syracuse fifty two percent of the tickets
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: on Duke. So yeah, PYU Magic underwear. Yeah for the Mormons,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: that's true. They're not allowed to have sex. The chastity underwear.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Syracuse lost their QB? Did they who was their quarterback? Even?
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. I don't know. Well, I talk
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: about the injured player theory, but I don't know how
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: much that even matters. Let me see, it was a
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Angelly did he did he go out? Angelie? Did he
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: go out? In the game against stuck Clemson? Let me
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: say so that's interesting too. That means it's an injured
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: player spot. Yeah, you're right, so he got hurt. And
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: then Ricky Collins came in I guess late in the game,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: So you're right, SOB, thank you for that. So it
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: does look like it is actually an injured player spot
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: then for Syracuse.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: So another reason to not play Duke, because.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: If that's gonna be true, and if the backup quarterback
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: is gonna play for Syracuse. Here I talk about this
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: where it means the line does move against the line
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: has to shift like to accommodate for that quarterback being
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: out of the I don't know how much of a
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: drop off there really is between Syracuse's starting quarterback and
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: their backup quarterback. Like you'd have to see who those
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: guys even are, and like what the drop off is
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: because I don't know how significant it is. But if
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: that's the case, yeah, there might be extra value on
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Syracuse and the team does actually get motivated and step
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: it up to play for that quarterback got injured, but
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: that still conflicts with it being a huge letdown spot
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: for Syracuse. So and it is a letdown spot for
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: both teams. But I'm not going to touch the game
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: either way, and that is just yeah, that game is
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: wild man. Yeah. Louisville at Pittsburgh. This is an interesting
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: one to some degree in Louisville. A lot of people
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: are saying Louisville is going to take another step forward
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: this year.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: And vie for the ACC. We don't know yet because
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: they haven't really played anybody yet.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: The beat Eastern Kentucky, they beat Bowling Green, and in
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: between that they beat JMU, who is a pretty solid team.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: So they only beat them by fourteen at home.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: I believe Louisville did not.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: Cover that number or did they.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: No, they didn't. They were a fifteen and a half
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: point favorite, but JMU pretty solid team. Louisville had a
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: buy in Between those two. They came back out of
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: the bye and they still beat Bowling Green. Bowling Green
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: not great, I don't think this year. Now. Louisville does
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: have to face their first road game of the season
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: though at Pitts, so maybe not necessary.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: They're really easy to have to go to pitt and
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: do that.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: They did beat pitt thirty seven to nine last year
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: at home, and I think I played Louisville in that
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: game last year, if I remember correctly, because there was
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: some situational angle there where I laid the points with
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Louisville there.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: So it is a little bit.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Of a revenge spot for Pittsburgh in this one, if
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: you buy into that sort of thing. Pittsburgh. They're coming
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: off the backyard brawl though, so that was a big
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: rivalry game against West Virginia and they lost the game
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: in overtime, And if they didn't have a buye, which
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: they do, but if they didn't have a buye after that,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: I'd probably be looking to potentially fade Pittsburgh in a
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: spot like that coming off that hard fought game against
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. But Pittsburgh was a favorite in that game,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: so they really technically kind of went into the buy
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: on a bad note even though it was their first
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: loss of the season. I think that buy will actually
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: help them recollect themselves a little bit coming into this game,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: and it will be there a conference home opener there
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: at least for them. But I think it might be
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Louisville's first conference game as well, right because they haven't
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: played anybody either, so or they haven't played anybody, whereas
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: Pitt at least did play. Yeah, so Louisville fifty ticket
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on Louisville up from
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: three to three and a half. The money's actually coming
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: in on Louisville, and I kind of disagree with that
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: to some extent. So do with that information what you will,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: I guess, but I don't really necessarily agree with the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Louisville side and that one, So maybe that's the first
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: time I disagree with the market read this entire time here.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: We will see about that Cincinnati at Kansas. I've heard
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: some professional opinions on the Cincinnati side of this one.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Kansas blew out West Virginia last week. West Virginia was
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: coming off that backyard brawl game as well there, so
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: they were coming off a big win, a big upset win.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Having to go to Kansas not an easy spot for them.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Now Kansas is staying at home to face Cincinnati. Kansas.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: They have UCF up next, I mean not necessarily.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: Again, they're really gonna be looking ahead to Cincinnati coming in.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: I believe they're coming off of a bye.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: So I went to a buy. I mean, I guess
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: on a high note though, because they won two games
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: in a row, crushing Northwestern State and putting up seventy
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: against them to going to a buy. So sometimes when
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: that does happen, there's not really a whole lot yet
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: you can fix going into the buy on the high
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: note like that.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: They do have an extra week to prepare for Kansas.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: So there is that, But I'd like it more if
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: they went into the buy on a bad note there.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I'll slightly agree with other pros
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: on that one. With the Cincinnati side, I don't really
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: have much of a reason to disagree. Kansas down from
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: six and a half to four. There seventy one percent
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Kansas, so the money is definitely coming
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: in pretty strong on Cincinnati taking the points there as
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: the line has moved down sixty one percent of the
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: cash on at Cincinnati. So a little bit of information
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: on that game for you too, Uh sicko type plays?
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, what do we mean? What do you mean sicko?
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: My players are are sickening like nobody likes them because
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: they're all I go contrarian a lot man. South Alabama
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: at North Texas. I kind of looked at this game
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: for a little bit. North Texas is coming.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: Up a pretty big game at Army.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Pretty big conference game there, although I know actually this
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: is an out of conference game here now at South Alabama.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: So North Texas they're four and oh. They had a
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: blowout win against Washington State, which is a game that
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: North Texas gets up for because it's still one of
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: those teams that used to be in the Pac twelve,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: and they followed it up going to Army, And I
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: told you I leaned to Army in that game, and
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Army took them into overtime and North Texas wound up
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: winning the game in overtime. A big conference win for
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: them on the road. Now they get an out of
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: conference game here against South Alabama, and up next they
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: have South Florida and South Florida.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: We know what they did to Boise State and Florida.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: So I think North Texas might be looking ahead to
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: that game, but they do have a bye next week,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: so that gives me a little bit of pause on
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: actually doing this.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: But I am going to lean to South Alabama on
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Man. I think it would be a little bit stronger
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: if North Texas did have to play South Florida next week,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: but they played them in two weeks. But it is
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be on a Friday night ESPN two games, so
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be an isolated game against South Florida. So
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: still a bit of a look ahead there. For South Alabama.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: They had an ugly, ugly game last week. Can you
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: remember I believe I talked about that game and I
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: said I leaned to Coastal Carolina in that game. Coastal
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina not good either. That was a really, really bad
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: game for South Alabama. And I told you South Alabama
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: was coming off a game against Auburn where they played
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Auburn pretty close, man, in a little brother, big brother situation.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: That was one of South Alabama's biggest games on their schedule.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Playing a big conference team like Auburn that's in the
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: state of Alabama with them, that was a huge game
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: for them, and they put up a pretty good performance
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: against Auburn and coming off that they were in a
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: massive hangover spot against this bad Coastal Carolina team. South
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: Alabama was a fourteen and a half point favorite and
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: they lost the game outright.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: That is ugly, man.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina had at least one defensive touchdown in the game.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: South Delliama actually outgained them four twenty to two ninety four,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: and they lost the turnover battle by three. So that's
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: pretty much why they lost that game minus three in turnovers,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: even though they outgained Coastal Carolina. So it was just sloppy,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: sloppy game for them, man, multiple turnovers in the game,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: you know, it was just yeah, I mean, just a
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: bad performance from them as far as that's concerned.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: That they still outgained them.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: So I think South Alabama is the way to look
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: in this one. North Texas is a huge favorite, or
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: pretty big favorite up from ten and a half to
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half year, sixty five percent of tickets,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: only sixty percent of the cash on them.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: So I like that one.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: That one's closer to being a play for me, man,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: because when you have a team like South Alabama coming
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: off a game where they lose outright as a favorite,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: like that really disgusting performance. They spend all week like
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: getting drilled, man, Like, stop turning the ball over, you
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? The turnovers could definitely be fixed.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be much more focused on this game,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: and there was definitely an explanation for why they did
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: badly in that game. North Texas in a bad spot,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: so I will lean to South Alabama there. That one
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: was close to a play for me. Let's run through
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the rest of these before I get to my actual
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: place here.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: What else did I have.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: UCLA? Interesting situation for UCLA here because they fired their coach,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: so they went into a bye last week on a
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: terrible note where they'd lost three straight games, fired their coach,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: and now they're coming out of a bye, so I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: think it's a good spot for UCLA. I talked about
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: this as well. When a team fires their coach, that
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: can tend to pump up the team, man because either
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: maybe the team didn't like that coach, so that can
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: kind of fire up the team a little bit, but
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: the team also will play better because they want to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: kind of just prove that hey, it was the coach's fault.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: And not our fault that we were bad. So it's
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: a motivating factor for multiple different reasons. They've had even
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: extra time off because that game was a Friday game,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: so UCLA's had more than basically two weeks off here
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: to prepare for this, so it is big. And the
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: fact that they, if I are their coach, I think Ucla
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: is gonna come show up with something here. Man, they're
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: playing this Northwestern team that's not really that good. I
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: don't know is Northwestern still in that temporary stadium. Somebody
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: will have to let me know about that. They might be,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: because Northwestern has their new stadium being built. They were
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: in a temporary stadium last year, so I don't know
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: if that's still the case or not. A Northwestern they
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: also are coming out of a bye, though, though they
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: went into the by having played really fairly tough against Oregon,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: only losing them by twenty at home. So I went
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: into a bye on maybe less of a negative note
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: than Ucla at least. But both teams aren't coming out
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: of a bye where they might have went into that by,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: you know, use that by to fix some things. But
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: I lean to Ucla in this game on Northwestern's up
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: from six to six and a half. Really don't think
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: should be they should be that much of a favorite,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: to be honest, A sixty one percent takes sixty six
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Ucla. The total's pretty low too,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: down to forty five and a half. So if you're
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: taking points with a low total like that, again, that
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: is something look towards as well. The points are just
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: worth more, so I lean to UCLA in that one
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: plus the points. Louisiana against Marshall, No, absolutely not Marshall.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know how Marshall has won games this year,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: to be honest, because Marshall lost their entire team to
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: Southern miss As I said, so I thought Marshall was
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: gonna be absolutely terrible, like one of the worst ATBs teams.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: It looks like they're actually not as bad as we thought.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: But no, I don't really have anything in that game
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State plus the points against Baylor. You like pain,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: I like pain as well. Wait until you see my
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: best bets you'll know how painful I like it. O.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: They're in the temporary stadium is still in Northwestern. That's
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: what I thought, so Northwestern has less of a home
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: field advantage.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: In that stadium really as well.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: Call at BC. This one almost made a play for me, man,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: because you look at this game, BC is sitting at
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: one and two and Cols at three and one. Oh
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: and by the way, again, before I get away from
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: UCLN Northwestern, the public's gonna be on the Northwestern side,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: at least to some extent. A line I just showed
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: you the percentage was actually on UCLA a little bit,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: but more of the cash on UCLA. But the public's
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: really not gonna want anything to do with an zero
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: to three team, although I know UCLA is a bigger
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: name than Northwestern, but Northwestern at least has a win.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: So the public kind of takes those records into a
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: company in this game. Look at the records here, Cols
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: three and one, BC is one and two, and BC
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: is favored. So you know the public is gonna see
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: that and think, oh my god, I'm getting the team
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: with the better record. Cal. They remember Cal being like
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: pretty confident last year. But you remember Cal had Mendoza
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: as their quarterback last.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: Year, and you know where he is this year.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: He's on Indiana and he's lighting it up on Indiana.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: So Cal does not have him anymore. So Cal they're
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: not really that good.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: It's just people just look at their records and not
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: dig into even like what these teams did, like like
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: who have they beaten so far? You know what I mean?
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: Cal beat Oregon State on the road. I mean that's
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: an okay win.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: It's not an easy place to play at least Oregon
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: State not really that good, although I to have a
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: play on them tonight, which hopefully is gonna get there.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: And then Cal did beat Minnesota, so they beat a
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Big Ten team, but you know these Big Ten teams,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is not the best Big Ten team in Minnesota
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: having to go out to Cal unfamiliar environment really because
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: of these weird you know, it was just a weird situation, right.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: I know Minnesota probably did have to go out west
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: in the Big Ten last year, but still going out
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: to Cal's an ACC team, They're not familiar with that environment.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: I thought Minnesota would actually still win that game. Minnesota
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: was actually favored in that game, even though they were
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: on the road in a really unfamiliar environment. But Cal
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: was able to get it done in that game. And
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Cal beat Texas Southern for their other game, an FCS team,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: so Cal really hasn't done a whole lot, and then
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: they did lose their first game last week to San
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: Diego State, and San Diego State is not that good.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: I know they're a Mount West team. I know they
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: used it'd be good. They used to have a really
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: nice history. They used to have really good like ground game,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: decent quarterback play, physical, good defense. But that's not what
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: they are right now. They're a bad team. And Cal
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: lost to them thirty four to nothing. That is not
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: a good sign at all. Cal with sagapolateelly now is
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: their quarterback whoever the hell that is their I guess
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: simone quarterback guys assume. But Cal. I mean the fact
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: that they took their first loss of the season as well.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: I think that could kind of hang them over as
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: well into the next game. You know what I mean,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: because a lot of times I point that out when
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: a team is undefeated a few weeks into the season
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: and they take their first loss, it can hang them
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: over to the next game. But now they do have
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: to go east to face Boston College. Man, it's not
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: a familiar environment for them having to go up to BC.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the weather's gonna be like. But
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: it has been warm up here, so I don't think
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: it's going to be cold. So the cold isn't going.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: To affect cal in this game.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: Like it was eighty degrees today, so up in the
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: Boston area it'll be seventy five. Not gonna not gonna
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: be a bad weather game for them at all, But
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: still it's a weird travel spot for calend they're having
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: a travel cross country, very very strange BC. I know
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: they were sitting at one and two, but they did
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: lose to Michigan State and double overtime on the road.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not a terrible loss for them. BC's
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: gotten some decent quarterback play out of Loner. Again, they're
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who took over from the evil Castellanos.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: And then BC lost to Stanford.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: I know Stanford's bad, but and I believe BC was
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: favored in that game, but I leaned to Stanford in
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: that game because it was just, you know, second straight
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: road game, BC having to go out to an unfamiliar
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: spot on the Pacific coast, like a very late night game.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: That was just a very bad spot for BC. So
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: I figured they would probably lose that game, but they
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: went into a bye after that. So BC has an
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: advantage of having a buye here too. And I talk
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: about when you go into a bye on a bad note,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: you use that buy to fix some things. So I
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: think the bye came at a good, good point for
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: BC able to use that buy to help, you know,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: with their travel as well, so they're not having to
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: travel back across the country and then play right away either.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: So I like Boston College in this game. So there's
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: my hat there. Uh. And again you're laying six and
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: a half points with a one and two team against
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: a three and one team, So it's like, like, what
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: is the what is the public gonna think about that? Right? Uh?
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Like they're only gonna want to go with the three
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: and one team. They're getting six and a half points.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: It looks almost way too easy to do that, but
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: I would lean to BC. I would lay the points BC.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: Up from or sitting at six and a half. It
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: went down a little bit.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: Actually, sixty three percent of tickets on CAL, so the
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: public is indeed taking CAL fifty seven percent of the
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: cash on BC though.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I like BC in that one. Anna, what's up?
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out?
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right and hitting on me in the comments
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: section here, all right, BC, I mean I'm tempted, man.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: That was one of the closest ones. That was one
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: of my last cuts as far as ones that I
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: wanted to make a play on with BC. What other
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: games should I talk about? I mean Utah West Virginia.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: I think Utah deserves to be ranked, dude. I like
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Utah and the only reason they've been knocked out of
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: the rankings is because they lost at home to Texas Tech.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I know, Utah didn't look good in that game,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: losing thirty four to ten pretty ugly, which I got.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: You could see I had a pick wrong in that game.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech did outplay them. Utah had four turnovers though,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: so it was a sloppy game for Utah two. But
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: I think Utah could definitely clean that up, but they
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: are I'm going to go to West Virginia, which is
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: not exactly the easiest spot to have to go to.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: I still think Utah is better than being an unranked
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: team though. I mean, Texas Tech is a solid team
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: this year, but having to go on on the road
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: to West Virginia maybe somewhat of a difficult spot. They
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: haven't traveled this far east yet, which, by the way,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say Cal. Back on Cal for one second.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: Cal has not had to travel out of the Pacific
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: times on yet, I don't think. I think their road
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: games were Oregon State and San Diego State, so they
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: have not played a road game outside of the Pacific
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: time zone yet. So it is a bad spot for
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: Cal for that reason too. Anyway, Utah.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: I like Utah. I do think they should bounce back
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: here against West Virginia.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: But West Virginia had a pretty ugly game last week too,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: man against Kansas, and this is gonna be their Big
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: twelve opener, big twelve home opener, so West Virginia should
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: show up for this game as well, So I do
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: worry about it, even though I do think Utah is
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: a better team than what they than what people think
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: right now Utah. I mean, the oddsbeggers are telling you
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: they are. They're a thirteen point favorite here despite being
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: on the road up from ten to thirteen. But it
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: does look like the money's kind of coming back on
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: the West Virginia side. It is a low total forty
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, so I would not want to
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: lay it with Utah. There's no way sixty four percent
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: of tickets only sixty two percent of the cash on Utah.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: I would just I just figured O would talk about
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: that game briefly, but I don't really have a ton
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: to really say on it. Hawaiian air Force. I heard
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: some guys talking about this game. Air Force played Boise
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: State pretty close last week. Man, that was a big
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: game for air Force playing Boise State close. Air Force
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: was within five points late in that game, and with
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: like four minutes left, Boise covered like late in the
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: game and maybe shouldn't have covered that number. Man. So
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: that was a big game for air Force. They played
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: pretty well against Boise and now they get Hawaii and
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: next up they have Navy next week, and you know,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: that's a huge game air Force versus Navy. It's one
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: of the big It's part of the Commander in Chief
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: trophy where the Armed Force is all playa other army,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: Navy and air Force, and it's kind of a bigger
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: game for air Force to some extent because air Force
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: is usually the lesser of all three of them, or
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: at least that's been the case recently as well, and
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: they don't get that big like hyped Army Navy game
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: that happened at the end of This happens at the
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: end of the season. So air Force considers themselves to
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: be kind of a little brother. So this is kind
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: of a sandwich spot. The problem that I have with
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: it is that I don't really think I want to
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: lay the point. I don't really think I want to
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: take the points of Hawaii here either, because Hawaii is
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: having to travel to the mainland, and I know Hawaii
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: is used to it.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: They have to do this every year. They make multiple
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: trips to the.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: Mainland, but it's still not that easy. And the first
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: time they did it this year, they got bombed by Arizona.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: They lost horribly to Arizona. So I'm I don't know
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: if I'm ready to say I.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: Want to do that. Man.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: Even though Hawaii does seem to be kind of on
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: the upswing a little bit, it is a bad spot
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: for air Force, so things to consider there. Man, I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: would probably lean just I would still probably lean towards
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: the Hawaii side. But the money looks like it's slightly
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: coming in. An air Force from five and a half
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: to six and a half with eighty percent of eighty
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on them. Ninety percent of the
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: cash on air force, so the cash looks like it's
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: coming in an air force. I don't know, man, I
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: think it's a bad spot for them. I'll leave it
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: at that. I would lean to taking the points of
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: the Hawaii, but I don't think I can quite get
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: there with it.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: Chi lay in in Tulsa. This is one of my
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: last scratches, man.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: I like Tulane in this game. I'm not gonna quite
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: get there with this one. This is one of the
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: last ones. So Tulane and BC. So those watch those
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: be correct and watch my actual plays be wrong, and
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: then I'll be pissed off. So I like BC, I
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: like Tulane, and those are a couple of my last scratches, man,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: which is why I'm talking about them. Tulsa, they're in
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot, man, because what do they do. They
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: went to Oklahoma State last week in prime time, so
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: I know they do have extra time off here because
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: they played on Friday or whatever. But they pulled off
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: a big upset, man. I mean, Oklahoma State wasn't playing well.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: We know that Oklahoma State has been way down for
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: a while now, but it's a huge game for Tulsa.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, Tulsa got blown out last year at home
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State, and you know, it's a little brother,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: big brother situation whenever you do that, you pull off
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: a game like that, especially when it was like a
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: seventeen point upset or something like that. Huge, huge game
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: for Tulsa. Now they face Tulane. I mean the hesitation
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: that I have with it is it is their first
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: conference game, I think, right, or wait, no, it isn't.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: Their first conference game is Navy, never mind, but this
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: is another conference game against Tulane, and Tulane is pretty
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: good so far, so maybe Tulsa does have reason to
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: show up, but I think it is it is a
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: letdown spot, nonetheless after that big game against Ohio against
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. So take from that what you will, but
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: I do lean to Tulane a little bit here Tulane.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: Problem I kind of have with Tulane is that they
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: did take their first loss, and I talk about how
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: that kind of hang you over a little bit after you.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: Take your first loss.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: They are having to face a second straight road game
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: and a third straight road game in four games, which
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: is not that easy. I don't know if they had
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: to buy in the middle there. They did not, so
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: that makes it even more difficult. Three road games in
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: four weeks, so I don't quite want to have my
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: money on Tulane here. And Tulane did play a couple
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: of big games in a row as well, against Duke
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: and Ole Miss, and Old Miss was their biggest opponent
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: that they'll face this season. They didn't do well. They
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: got blown out, but it was still a game they
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: probably got up for emotional lane. I talked about it.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: You do potentially get hung over after you, you know,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: take your first loss of the season. Though Tulane has
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: got to be the better team here. I mean, they've
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: also been pretty battle tests, so they haven't faced any
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: FCS teams. They did beat Northwestern to open the season.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: They were favored in that game, that's how bad Northwestern is.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: And they did beat Duke, which was the return of
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: Mensa who used to play for Tulane and now he's
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: on Duke. I still lean to Toulane in this game
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: because it is a letdown spot. But I'm not going
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: to lay fourteen fourteen and a half now on the road.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you could get it at the opener
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: at thirteen and a half. It's a little bit more
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: attempting to do it, but you know it's crossed through
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: the two touchdown thresholds. You're not getting the better of
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: the number. Tulane up from thirteen and a half to
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. As you can see, it's headed
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: towards fifteen fifty nine percent of tickets on Tulane, So
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't even really want Tulsa here, but eighty
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets on Tulane. I do lean to
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: tou Lane. But yeah, I'm not gonna lay points on
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: the road like that. I mean, I'm just not gonna
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: do it.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: What else did I have?
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech and NC State? This is a little bit
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: interesting as well. NC State took their first loss of
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: the season.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: You know, I talk about this yet again. I just
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: talked about it first.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: Loss of the season. Sometimes it will hang you over
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: into the next game. And that was a big rivalry
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: game man against Duke. They've actually played two straight North
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina games against wake Forest, which I know wake is
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: kind of they're they're like, you know, the cousin that
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: you just bully off in the corner at this point though,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: but Duke is kind of the big brother right now.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: Again in NC State, couldn't couldn't quite do it, man,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: it was kind of It was a fairly close game,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: I think later into the game, but Duke was able
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: to get the job done. N C State could be
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit hung over here in NC State's defense
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: looks pretty vulnerable right now. They haven't been playing that well,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: so I do not like n C State coming into
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: this one in this spot. Virginia Tech. I talked about
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: them last week because they started off the season zero
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: to three. They lost to South Carolina. They'll remember South
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: Carolina scored late in that game to cover the spread
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: on like a defensive touch down or something. So Virginia Tech.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech played a lot better in that game than
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: what the score looks. It was a close game. And
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: then they did lose to Vandy pretty embarrassingly. Vandy did
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: wreck them. So there was that it was a bad
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: game for Virginia Tech. But Vandy's not bad. But then
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: the final straw was they lost to Old Dominion at
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: home of the Old Dominion is not that bad. They're
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: still They're an FBS team. They pretty much always make bowls.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: At this point, I think Old Dominion is pretty solid.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, Old Dominion played pretty well against Indiana too,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: so I mean this Old Dominion team is.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: Not that bad.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: But Virginia Tech obviously should not have lost to them
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: by almost twenty points at home. Anyway. Nonetheless, Virginia Tech
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: was a five and a half point favorite. That kind
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: of tells you how good Old Dominion is. They're not
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: that bad, but that was the final straw. So Virginia
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: Tech fired their coach. And I talked about this yet
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: again when a team fires their coach, which, by the way,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: we have one more fired coach spot to talk about.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: So we have UCLA, we have Virginia Tech. There's one
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: more and it's gonna be one of my plays and
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: you might know what it is. Virginia Tech they did
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: already have their fired coach spot kind of against Wafford,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: but it was an easy game. I mean, Wafford they're
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: an FCS team and pretty much a cupcake. So I
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: just think it's kind of a good thing that Virginia
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: Tech was able to get that win. So it stops
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: that losing momentum from them, So I think that's really good.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: Now they get to play NC State.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: I kind of have a hesitation here because it is
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: their first road game of the season, so it makes
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: it a little bit more difficult. But you're getting a
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: lot of points with the Virginia Tech. Yeah, like SOBS
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: said here, you're buying lull on Virginia Tech. That is
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: definitely true. So I agree with that. It's not gonna
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: make a play for me. But I do agree with
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: the Virginia Tech here. I think the fired coach phenomenon
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: can kind of carry over to this game because again,
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: you have your new coach. Sometimes it does fire your
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: team up, although usually in the first game it does
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: it the most. But that was an FCS team, so
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: maybe it'll carry over to this big conference game here
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: against North Carolina State. So the fired coach phenomenon in
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: this case might actually last for a couple of weeks here.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: So I do agree. I like Virginia Tech and this one.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean that really that win over Wafford
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: can almost kind of serve as a bye too, but yeah,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: it breaks you losing momentum either way, So yeah, I
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: agree with it. I will lean that way up. We're
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: gonna get an overtime game. Hold on, let me put
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: this game on Oregon State's gonna cover for us. There
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: we go.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: It's a tied game with.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Fifty seconds left ESPN. I think it's on ESPN. Let
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: me put it on. Arizona State covered the two and
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: a half. By the way, it landed exactly three, So
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I was correct or not on that.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: Oregon State has the ball. What are they doing? Can
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: they win outright? Can we get two outright underdog winners?
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: Come on, let's do it. My college football has been
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: good since Week one. Man, we're running pretty well in
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: college football so far. Here. I want to get We're
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: gonna get the cover regardless though in this Oregon State
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: game it goes into overtime or guaranteed the cover. I mean,
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: obviously it's a thirteen and a half number in this
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: one it went down to twelve and a half, but
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: even if you took that, it'll be a win. Fourteen
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: never showed up.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: Anyway, for Virginia Tech here, not to get sidelined too
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: much here because I still have to give out my
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: best bets and I want to kind of focus on those.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be another two hour video. Man, We're up
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: till two thirty in the morning. NC State has seventy
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, fifty five percent of the
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: cash on Virginia Tech.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: Though, so NC State is public. They're out from eight
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: and a half to nine and a half. You're going
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: through the nine and a half.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: So if you can get ten, you want to try
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: to get the ten if you can, man, so I
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: would get the Yeah, I mean I would try to
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: get the ten. I mean, obviously it's a key number,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: the touchdown plus the field. Well, it looks like you
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: might be able to just so there's.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: No rush to play Virginia Tech here because.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: Even if it stays at nine and a half or
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: nine or even eight and a half, those are not
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: key numbers, so it doesn't matter.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: So try to get the ten.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: You can wait basically all the way up until tomorrow night,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: until game time. I'll just see if you can get
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: the ten on this. But I agree with Virginia Tech. Uh,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash on Virginia Tech. And yes,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: you're indeed buying low on that one, So I agree
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: with that one as well. What else do we have
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: left here? San Jose State and Stanford. I'm gonna talk
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: about a lot of games in every game where I
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: kind of see a situation, I'm talking about it. San
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Jose State. I think they're better than the record looks
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: so far. Man, you're gonna see they're going to Stanford.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, San Jose State's one and two, Stanford's one
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: and three. I know, Stanford's not very good. San Jose State,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: they probably should have won their season opener, Man against
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan. This is a really horrendous loss for San
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: Jose State. They were fourteen and a half point favorite
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: in the game. They basically lost the game on turnovers.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, they outgained Central Michigan and Michigan in the game,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: but they had three turnovers minus three and turnovers. So
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: it was just it was an ugly game. They just
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: were just sloppy in the games. They lost that game,
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: and then they had to play Texas on the road.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, you don't expect San Jose State to win
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: that game, obviously, but then San Jose State what do
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: they do. They came out of the bye and they
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: played pretty poorly. Again, they barely beat Idaho, who's an
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: FCS team now they used to be an FBS team,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: So I think they're not a bad FCS team, but
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: still San Jose State as thirteen and a half point favorites.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: They only beat Idaho by three, so San.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: Jose State is now coming off of that, so I
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna focus them, and I think coming out
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: of that, buy yeah, you get Idaho, it's kind of
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: like whatever. I think they were looking ahead to Stanford men,
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: because this is a big game for San Jose State.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: Stanford is an in state big brother, but it's also
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: the one who's like closest geographically to San Jose State
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: up in northern California there, so it's a big game
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: for San Jose State. I think they're gonna be even
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: more focused because they played like ass against Idaho, and
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: that might mean you get even more value on San
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: Jose State. Stanford, I mean, they're an acc team, they
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: have the bigger name, so everybody kind of thinks they're
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: the better team, but I don't even really think they are.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: And they're having to travel back from the East coast
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: of Stanford. I mean they've been all over the place.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: They played in the first four weeks of the season,
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: they had three road games, so they had to go
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: all the way out to Hawaii. Then they played at
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: BYU in High Eleva. Then they had to go all
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: the way to the East Coast two weeks later after
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: a home win over BC that I mentioned, they had
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: to go to play Virginia last week and they lost
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: that game. And now they're having to return all the
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: way back with no time off. They're having to go
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: all the way back to the Pacific Coast and play
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: San Jose State before they play another ACC opponent with
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: SMU so and that's gonna be after a buye, and
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: I think they really want this buy man. This buy
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: is gonna probably come in a decent time for Stanford.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: It's probably coming actually a week too late, because I
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: think the buye would have helped them more. After this
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: Virginia game, it's a bad spot. I think San Jose
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: State is in a much better spot here. So I
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: do like San Jose State in this game. They've had
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: to travel a lot less san Jose State the furthest
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: day travel was to Texas a couple of weeks ago,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: so they've been back on the Pacific coast for a while.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: Now Stanford is public throughout from one and a half
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: to three. With juice, you might even be able to
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: get three and a half, So you might be able
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: to wait and get three and a half. I think
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: at the worst you're gonna get plus three on this.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: You could try to wait and see if you get
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: the three and a half on this. I mean, the
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: game is an until tomorrow night. Public is on Stanford
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: seventy tickets on them, only sixty seven percent of the
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: cash and it's a low total of forty nine and
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: a half, even though I think San Jose State is
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: a decent offense.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: But again, the points are worth more with a low.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: Totals, So.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: You're on San Jose State. I agree with that. Yeah, yeah, sob.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: I like the way you think man SMU is up
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: next yet for them as well. I agree with that.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: That one almost made my card as well. I will say,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be mad when the when these uh you
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: know are correct and we lose that one and we
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: lose and we lose the ones that I'm actually gonna
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: gonna give out. I mean, but we'll see, hopefully they
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: all win and then app State and Boise State. I'm
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm actually I'm gonna talk about a couple of
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: these other games real quick. Here what am my hold on,
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: let me see what my plays are here?
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: I'm just going over my plays one more time here,
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, I got I got them, I got.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: Them, all right?
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: All right. So Boise State they just had that game
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: against air Force on the road. It was a pretty
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: big game for Boise stand. I mean, it was a
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: conference opener, they had to prepare for the triple option whatever.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: Now they get app State, which is a game that
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter because Boise State. I know, they lost
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: the game to open the season, but Boise State basically
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: their goal is to basically run the table in the
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: Mountain West and win the conference, so this game does
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: not matter as much to them against an out of
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: conference app State team. And up next Boise has to
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: go to face Notre Dame on the road, So that
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: is another big game for Boise coming up next on
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: the road. So they might very easily look right past.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: This app State team.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: They kind of had a down year last year because
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: the hurricane came in and wrecked their city and boon
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: and app State's coming up a pretty ugly loss to
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss. But I told you Southern Miss is basically
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: Marshall from last year. They're not a bad team. App
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: State went in there and lost the game. I think
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: app State was actually a favorite in that game and lost,
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: So app State isn't as bad as what they've looked
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: so far. And they went into a buye after that,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: so I think that buy can actually help them because
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: they went into a buy on a bad note.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming out of that. My only hesitation with app.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: State really here is that it's a weird travel spot
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: where they have to go all the way out to
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: Boise out west, which is not a thing that they
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: typically have to do. So it's kind of an intimidating
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: environment and a weird travel spot. So I'm not going
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: to quite do it. But I think app State is
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: the right side in this game. Boise is up from
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: fifteen to sixteen and a half. I mean, everybody knows
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: the name Boise as well. Even though they saw them
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: get embarrassed in that first game. People are kind of
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: back on the Boise train after they've righted the ship,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: and they're not going to be impressed with anything that
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: app State has done. Sixty eight percent of tickets, only
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of their cash on Boise State, so
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: they're public with less of the cash on them.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: Harp turned boom.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: What do you mean, I know, boon, whatever that government
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: agency is did not help them out at all. Is
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: that what we're talking about? Yeah, they ruined it, Yeah
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: for sure. Kentucky at South Carolina. This almost made my
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: card as well. This is all right, So I'm gonna
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: give you like four almost plays here that are San
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: Jose State, BC, Tulane, although maybe Tulane is actually the
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: least of all of these. Now that I kind of reassess,
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: and I like Kentucky in this game, but I'm not
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: gonna quite get there with him. At South Carolina, they're
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: kind of in a sandwich spot man. After they got
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: embarrassed in that Vandy game, they went and they played
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: pretty tough at Missouri last week. Sellers was back for
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: South Carolina in the game. So South Carolina did play
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: well in that game. They only lost by nine, and
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: it was closer than that. Later in the game, Missouri
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: scored a late touchdown to push the number up a
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: little bit. South Carolina covered because I think they were
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: like an eleven and a half twelve point underdog there.
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: Now they come home to face Kentucky and it's gonna
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: be a revenge spot for Kentucky because last year South
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: Carolina went into Kentucky and embarrassed them. I think it
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: was like a thirty four to seven final or something
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: like that. So Kentucky's gonna have this game circle, but
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: South Carolina maybe not so much because they do play
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: LSU next as well. I know this is a home
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: conference game though, so but they already did play their
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: conference home opener against Vandy. They're gonna want to write
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: the ship, I know, because they're own two in conference,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: but and they do have a bye after this, so
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: they do have a bye before they face lsuf LSU
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: is coming up next week. I think it would be
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: a worse spot for South Carolina than it is, but
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: I still think it's a better spot for Kentucky. By
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: the way, South Carolina, I saw this stat that was
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: just absolutely ridiculous. South Carolina is worst in all of
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: FBS football in yards to go on third down. They're
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: averaging nine and a half yards to go on third down,
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: which means that they're averaging only gaining a half yard
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: on first and second down. I don't understand how that's
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: even possible. That's how bad South Carolina really is, and
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: they were ranked and I've been talking about how bad
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: they are because like almost half of their touchdowns and
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: there's where this year run defensive special teams. It's ridiculous.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: But I can't believe that their offense is that bad.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: It's like they're putting all the load on Sellers. It
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: must just be that they're just they're constantly throwing the football,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: Like how else do you gain only a half yard
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: on average on first and second down combined. It must
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: be that you're.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: It must be that you're you know, you're just you're throwing.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: It complete passes like that's the only way that it
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: can happen like that. It's ridiculous. So for Kentucky, I
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: think it is a better spot for them because they're
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye. They went into the buy
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: on a decent note though they beat Eastern Michigan, our
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: Noah Kaniga team.
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: They're Eastern Michigan. Kentucky did have a bye after that.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: I know it wasn't the worst note to go into
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: the buy on, but they do have the extra week
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: to prepare for South Carolina, and I do think they
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: have South Carolina circle because it's a revenge spot.
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: It is obviously a conference game.
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Kentucky in that game. That's the way
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: I lean huge look aheads. I don't think it matters
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: as much for Kentucky because Kentucky. Yeah, they have Georgia next,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it's as big a look ahead
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: for Kentucky. Man because Kentucky they have had South Carolina
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: circled because of what South Carolina did to them last
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: year in Kentucky. I think it's a big game for Kentucky.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: I think Kentucky wants the game. Last year, South Carolina winned.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: I got the score a little bit wrong. South Carolina
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: went into Kentucky early in the season last year it
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: was basically the conference opener for both teams, and beat
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: them thirty one to six, totally embarrassed them. And even
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: in that game, South Carolina's offense didn't do anything. Sellers
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: had one hundred and sixty six yards of passing. I mean,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: is Sellers even good? I mean we've been talking about
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: how Sellers is supposed to be this good quarterback. It's
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: getting better. I don't even know if he's good. So yeah,
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: I like Kentucky in that game. And the money is
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: pretty much agreeing with it. You probably could have gotten
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: seven at some point. I don't think it was out
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: there that long. South Carolina is down to minus five
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: now fifty nine percent of tickets and cash on them.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: I will not put too much weighted to that one.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: That one was close to being a play for me
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: on Kentucky. Let's go to the actual plays here, let's
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: get ready for the best bets.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: Let's do it.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: And again, I hope my leans here don't outperform my bets,
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: because that would really piss me off.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: You're gonna hate all of these bets, man, But at least.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: We already were. We already started off two and oh right.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if did the Oregon State win. Is
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: the game over yet? I don't know if they want outright,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: I will definitely celebrate, but yeah, we had we started
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: off the week two and oh so we can afford to,
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe have a little bit of a lack
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: luster day tomorrow. But I want to win, man, So
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: let's get to it. You guys are gonna hate every
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: one of these plays, man. You know how contrarian I am.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: These are some of the ugliest, most contrariant plays you
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: can probably think of. First one up, I'm gonna do
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: it again. Kansas State minus five and a half. I'm
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Even though I'm owing to playing Kansas State.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: I still think they should have won the Dublin game.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: They didn't deserve to even be close in the Arizona game.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna do this anyway. Man, nobody is gonna
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: want Kansas State at all in this game. And I
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: do Where are they at? Up? I just I just
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: missed it? Hold on, Yeah, they're playing UCF at Kansas State.
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: All right, So it's this is up and noon. It's
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of the early start times. People are
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: gonna look at this. UCF is three and zero, Kansas
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: State's one and three. So why the hell would you
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: lay points with Kansas State. There's no way the public
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: is ever gonna want to do anything like this. Well
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: let's uh, let's look at what we have going on here,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: you seef. Oh yeah, they've played nobody. That's that's one
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: part of this. Andicap, who have they played? They were
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: a twenty point favorite against Jacksonville State to open the season.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: They almost lost. They only beat them.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: Seventeen to ten.
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: Then they beat NCA and T and I know they
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: massacred them, but that is an FCS team. And then
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: they beat North Carolina last week, like, Okay, we know
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is playing pretty poorly here, and I told
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: you I liked UCF in that game last week. Bill
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: Belichick not off to a good start. I think his
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: girlfriend is basically coaching the team. That North Carolina team
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: is not good. Now UCF has to go to Kansas
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: State on the road. Manhattan, Kansas is still gonna be
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: a crazy environment there. It's a difficult spot to play.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: It's on the road Kansas Stan and I think is
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: still gonna show up man because they could still vibe
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: for the conference even though their own two in conference.
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: I still think they still have a shot, man because
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think every team in this conference is gonna
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: go I don't think you're gonna have multiple teams go
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: undefeated or.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: Anything like that.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: So I think it's too early to say that they're
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: in a dream crusher spot or anything like that. It's
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot for UCF. They haven't left home
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: yet this season. They got to go out to Manhattan,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas and how long has UCF been in this conference.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: I think last year was their first year in this conference,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: and they didn't play Kansas State at all. I know
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: they did travel a little bit last year, but still
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: they're still not really used to it.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: They're not used to this. Oh no, they did, my mistake.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: They were in this conference two years ago, so they
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: did play at Kansas State too years ago, so my mistake.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: And they did lose my double digits.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: But it's not a typical thing that they do, and
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: it is their first road game, so it's still a
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: weird spot for them, man, So I don't like it,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: and I think it's a much better spot for Kansas
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: State here. Kansas State is coming out of a bye,
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: so you know they're gonna be They're gonna be using
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: that buy to fix some things, man, because it has
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: not been good for them.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: They went into that.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: By losing as a favorite to Army, and then they
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: had a Friday night game, so they have even extra
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: time off here, and they played poorly again against Arizona.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: Avery Johnson was terrible in the game. I don't know
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Avery Johnson, Like did he get hurt?
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what's going on here? He didn't.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: He was just awful in the game, So I don't know.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: Man to me, yeah, I mean this looks like a
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: spot where Kansas State is gonna have to show up.
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: I mean this is basically like, if you're gonna try
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: to salvage your season at all, you gotta show up here.
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: And you gotta think they use that buye to fix things.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: That buye came at a very nice time where they
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: probablybably should have beaten Army. They lost the Army at
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: home as a favorite. I mean, Army does throw that
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: triple option at you. Whatever. Kansas State did play better
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: in that Iowa State game than what it looked maybe
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: what it looks like. I think they probably should have
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: won that game, but they faced a much more difficult
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: schedule than U SEEF.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: I mean again, they played.
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, Army is looking like they're not that bad now,
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: and they played Arizona. I mean, all three of those
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: teams might be better than who's the best opponent that
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: UCF played North Carolina. I mean they suck. So I
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: think Kansas State arguably has played three better teams, maybe
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: the North Carolina. So yeah, I like it. There's a
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: reason why Kansas State is favored here, we're gonna do it.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna want to do with this. Nobody's gonna want
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: any anything to do with Kansas State. And they're actually
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: down from six and a half to now five. Although
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's mostly five and a half's out there,
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. It's a dead number either way. Sixty
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets on Central Florida. Everybody wants the
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: undefeated team as an underdog here. We're not gonna do that.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. Sixty eight percent of the cash on them
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: with Kansas State. Man, We're finally gonna win on Kansas State.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: How about that?
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: Oh it's we're in an overtime now, all right.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on in overtime here. Oregon
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: State's facing a fourth and one year? Should I watch
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: this play? Make the make make this even longer here
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: and make you wait for my next best bet. I
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that, but I want to see
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: what happens. I would love to get this right on
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: the money. They didn't get that. Oh my god, Oh
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: my god, Houston's gonna win the game.
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: But we got the cover on Oregon State. But That
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: was just awful.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: That was so bad. I mean, it's basically what you
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: gotta do. You gotta run it up the middle on
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: fourth down. But man, that was so bad. If you
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: guys are watching, that just awful, just absolutely awful, just stuffed.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: All Houston's got to do is win with a field goal.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: But hey, it was part of the handicap, didn't I
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: get this right? I said it was gonna be a
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: low scoring game. Like we basically got right to the
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: total in regulation twenty four to twenty four. So points
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: are worth a lot. Man, So we're gonna get to
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: Oregon State right. As far as the cover, we just
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: won't get that little money line sprinkled. But that's okay.
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, it would have been really nice to get
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: it though, but we'll have a winning day anyway. But yes,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: Kansas State is the play in that one up next.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: You're gonna hate me even more for this one. Iowa
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. Who is gonna want Iowa
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: in this game? Nobody but me? Nobody but me. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: uh nobody can bet Iowa. Let God do here we go.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: Indiana up from seven and a half to eight and
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: a half here, sixty nine percent of tickets on Indiana.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked it's not even more than that.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I don't see how I would expect
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: Indiana to be getting like ninety percent of the public
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: action here.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, sixty nine.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: Percent seems low. Only sixty six percent of the cash
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: or the line up from seven and a half to eight
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: It's like, all right, whatever, you're gonna give me more points.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: Fine. I think the line is just moving like this
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: because it's just an overreaction of what we saw last week.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: The PubL look is gonna overreact. Who is gonna want
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: to try to fade Indiana in this game? And they're
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: up to ranked eleventh in the nation. Mendoza is out
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: there shredding it. This Indiana team, I mean, last year
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: they had completely different personnel because it was whoever, I
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: forget the name of their coach.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 2: He came over from Ohio.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: He brought over who is it, Rourke Tanner. Rourke was
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: their quarterback last year they brought over from Ohio. Then
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: this year they had such a good season last year
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: they basically just reloaded with Mendoza. But my complaint about
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: Indiana last year was who did they play?
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: They didn't play anybody last year. Basically they had a
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: really easy schedule.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: So I believe I gave out Notre Dames as a
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: bet last year. I think that was one of my
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: bets on the show, and Notre Dame covered in the
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: playoff game against Indiana. Well, I'm still not impressed with Indiana, man,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: That's what I'll say. I know their offense is putting
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: up ridiculous numbers, but Mendoza, I mean, his yardage numbers
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: are not that insane.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: They've been putting up a lot of points. I get it.
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: They do have a decent rushing attack, sure balance attack.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: I know their offense is good. Old Dominion played them
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: pretty well in the first week or in week zero,
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: I guess, But maybe Indiana was just kind of getting
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: their bearings. You know, they had to get used to
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: having a new quarterback there or whatever. He has to
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: get used to a new system. Then since then, yeah,
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: they shredded Kanessau State. Kannessas State's a little bit better
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: this year than they were last year, but they're not good.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: And then Indiana beat Indiana State was an FCS team.
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 1: I know they put up seventy three points in that game,
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: but still Indiana State.
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's not much you can really gain from that.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: And then finally we saw Indiana get tested last week
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: by facing number nine Illinois number nine. Yeah, revolution number nine,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: and Indiana was only rate nineteenth. But there was a
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: reason why Indiana was up to like an almost seven
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: point favorite in that game. It's because the oddsmakers knew
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: Indiana was the better team. Did I expect them to
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: win sixty three to ten?
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: No?
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: I did not. Am I mad that I didn't give
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: it out as a play, Yes, because I had that
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: it was close to me one of my players last week. Man,
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: it was one of the ranking disparity games where it
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: was like, wait a minute, the lesser ranked team is
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: laying like a touchdown at home, So I should have
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: given it out. I give it out as a lean
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: on the show at least. But yeah, Indiana won sixty
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: three to ten. But as I already pointed out, I
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: don't think ILLINOI is that good. I don't even think
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: they're a top twenty five team, man, and they were
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: ranked nine last week. Illinois has done nothing like they
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: beat Duke just because Duke turned it over five times
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: in the game, and then the next time they had
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: any sort of test, they just completely fell apart. So
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: I don't think ILLINOI is good at all.
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: Indiana, Yeah, they're good. How good are they?
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly though, But they have to go
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: on the road to Iowa out here, and this is
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: their first road game of the season.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: You know, that's not easy, having to go on the road.
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: First road game of the season and Iowa this is
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: easily gonna be the best defensive seen so far, I think,
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: probably the best defensive faced so far as old dominion.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: Illinois defense is not good, So Indiana is gonna get
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: tested here, man. And to make matters worse for them,
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 1: they just beat number nine ranked Illinois. They got to
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: go on the road to face Iowa. And who do
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: they have up next?
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: Oregon on the road.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: Although it is in two weeks. I know they do
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: have a buy next week, but I still think this
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: pretty much looks like a sandwich spot to me. It
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: just looks like Indiana is going to be so overvalued
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: here after what they've done and what everybody saw them
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: do last week. But that Oregon just kind of adds
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: something to it. Man, the fact that they have Oregon
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: coming up in two weeks, have to go face them
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: on the road. It's a difficult spot. I think it
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: is still a sandwich spot Iowa. People are gonna think
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: because people think of Iowa as this team like their
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: offense sucks. But Kirk Ferrence fired his son or removed
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: his son out of the offensive coordinator role. At least
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: you remember I've talked about this Iowa. Their offense is
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit better this year. Man. They got Gronowski there.
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 1: I know he's not putting up huge numbers through the air,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: but he's a dual threat quarterback. They can run the
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: football and that is what they try to do. They
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: run the football with multiple different backs. As you can see,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 1: they've had a different leading rusher in every single game.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: So they put up decent rushing numbers. Man, that's what
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: Iowa does. So I think that's good against Indiana. I
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: think Iowa could slow the game down, man, And that
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: is what you have to do against this Indiana offense,
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: and that is what Iowa wants to do. Iowa, they
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: still like to run the football, they like to play defense.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: It's just that their offense can score better this year.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: Than they could in the past couple of years. I mean,
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: you saw they did put up thirty four and out Albany.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: I know Albany FCS team whatever, they put up forty
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: seven against you, mass u mass terrible, but they're an
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: FCS team at least.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: And they put up thirty eight against Rutgers last.
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: Week and that was on a Friday, so they do
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: have an extra day to prepare for this too, so
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: Iowa is a little bit more rested from that as well.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: I like it, man. I think Iowa you could maybe
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: argue them been a little bit more tested too, because
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: I think Iowa state you might be able to argue
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: they're better than than Illinois is I don't know they're
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: ranked higher than Illinois right and I think it's at
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: least close.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: So I like it man.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: Indiana, their defense I think is maybe better than it
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: was last year. I think it's hard to say how
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: good Indiana's defense really is because they haven't really played anybody.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: But I think Iowa you're more ensured that you know
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: that Iowa always pretty much is stocked, like stacked on
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: deepfense pretty much, so you pretty much know that Ioa
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: always like brings it on depfense, So I think you
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: couldn't maybe say that Iowa still is the better defense here.
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: They're getting a ton of points at home.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the last time Iowa was an
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: underdog of this magnitude at home was in twenty twenty
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: two against Michigan, who was like a national title contender
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: that year. So Iowa never is getting this many points
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: at home. It's very difficult to play there. We're gonna
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: go with Iowa in that game, man, Oregon, Yeah, smoking
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: the Devil's OREGANO. Yeah, that's true. My memory is a
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: little bit worse now that you know, since I had
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: the stroke, although that was long ago. Now let's finish
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: this off, man, So I'm assuming Houston won the game, fortunately,
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: but Oregon State still covered. Next up, who was it?
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: SOB is this yours? Oklahoma State plus twenty one? Hopefully
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 1: you can find the twenty one still out there. I
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: saw the twenty one around, so I think you'll be
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 1: able to get it the three touchdown threshold there. I
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 1: would probably still even do it at twenty and a half,
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: but I like getting the points of Oklahoma State here.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: Man against Baylor, the public's only gonna becoming in on
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: Baylor in this one. Baylor, they're out from nineteen and a
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: half to twenty and a half with a lot of juice.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: So I think you can get twenty one.
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: If you can't now, I mean you just hold off
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: on it, because if it's nineteen and a half twenty,
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter that much.
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 2: Between those two numbers.
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: You'll at least get twenty twenty and a half, probably
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: at the very worst, but I think you'll get twenty
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: one if it's not out there right now. Maybe you'll
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: even get twenty one and a half if.
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 2: You wait a little bit.
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of tickets only seventy two percent of
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: the cash on Baylor's. The public is all coming in
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: on Baylor. Though. I think I'm gonna have Baylor as
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: one of my Survivor picks still because because I think
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: I have to, because Baylor basically has no future value.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 1: I looked at their future schedule and they have no
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: other survival for the game, so I think I have
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: to play Baylor and Survivors. They need to win the
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: game outright and not cover. It's gonna be a little
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 1: bit dicey there, but I like this game. Man. The
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: public's not gonna want anything to do with this. Everybody
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: thinks Oklahoma State sucks, which they do. Baylor is obviously
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: the way better team, but Baylor's coming off a more
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: difficult game. Man.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: I know, Baylor's pretty battle tested.
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, they played Auburn, they played SMU on the
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 1: road last time out. Last week they played Arizona State.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: That was a big game and they lost. Arizona State
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: plays pretty good defense. I know, Baylor with Sawyer Robinson
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 1: Robertson there, he's good. Baylor does have a balanced offense, man,
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: with him coming back from last year. They got Washington's
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: putting up a lot of numbers running the football. Yeah,
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: they got a good offense, but Arizona's defense slowed them
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: down a little bit. So did Auburn. So when they
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: face better defenses, they get slowed down a bit. I
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: know Oklahoma State is not one of those, but need
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State to slow them down that much to come
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: within a three touchdown number at home, and I think
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: Baylor might just not.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: Totally show up here, man.
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was a big game against Arizona State,
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: and next week they have to face Kansas State, who,
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 1: even though they're struggling this year. That's still a big
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: game that carry weight behind their name. You know, they
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 1: were in the thick of it to win the Big
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: Twelve last year. I still think Kansas State is better
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 1: than people think they are right now. So I think
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: this is kind of a sandwich spot here. It's only
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: Baylor's second straight road game. It's still not that easy
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: to play in still Water. And what did I say
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: about Oklahoma State? Man. One of the other reasons we're
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: doing this is the fired coach phenomenon. Oklahoma State fired
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: Mike Gundy after he's been there for probably two decades
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 1: at this point. You remember the I'm a man, I'm
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 1: forty quote which I mentioned last week, which was in
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: a press conference when the journalists or whatever wanted to
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 1: ask his quarterback something and he was trying to take
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: the pressure off his quarterback.
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 2: He was like, don't ask him that question.
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: He's a kid. Ask me, I'm a man, I'm forty.
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 1: And that was seventeen years ago or something to this point.
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: So Gundhy was good back in the day, man, and
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: that was a hilarious breast comf.
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 2: It's hilarious quote.
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: I remember he had the mullet for a while he
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 1: had the mullet days. But for whatever reason, man, he's
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: just not doing well anymore. Maybe he just can't recruit
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: talent anymore. I don't know what the deal is, but
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: they fired him. And like I said, this is the
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: first game with a new coach here, Man, I say
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 1: that's gonna fire up the team. Typically, Man, more often
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 1: than not, maybe the team just wasn't listening to the
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: coach anymore, they weren't getting it, just weren't getting the
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: job done anymore. But they might be motivated as well,
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: just to prove that the coach was the problem and
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 1: not them.
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 2: This is a big game for them too. I mean
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: this is their first conference game.
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: It's their conference home opener, man, so I think they're
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: gonna show up. And they're coming off a game that
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 1: they should have won, which is why their coach got fired.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 2: They're coming off.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: A seventeen point upset at the hands of Tulsa, so
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: bad game for Oklahoma State. So a lot of things
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: are com insiding in this game. And they have extra
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: time off because that was on Friday, so they have
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 1: an extra week to do something with this new coach.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 1: I'm sure that their new coach is somebody that was
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 1: already in the system, so they don't have to implement
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: a new system or anything like that. Usually, when you
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 1: fire a coach mid season, like the assistant coach or whatever,
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 1: one of their coaches will just take over and they'll
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 1: keep running the same system.
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: So that's fine. Looking at this game. Yeah, I mean,
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State did get outgained in the game. It was
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 2: a bad game for them. It was a close game.
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't have happened. They were a big favorite. They lost
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: the game, but they were actually I thought they were
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: a seventeen boy favorite. My mistake. They were down to
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: ten and a half from thirteen and a half, but
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: still they were a double digit favorite in the game. Yeah,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is gonna motivate them, man,
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: coming off a loss like that. So give me Oklahoma
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: State plus twenty one in that game. Yeah, great, minds,
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: that's right, SOB. Yeah, I mean you're agreeing with me
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 1: your plays. I agree with all of them, even though
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 1: they're not plays for me. The last one up, this
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: one's a little bit under the radar, but it's gonna
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 1: be Florida Atlantic plus fourteen and it is me I
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: believe it is me fading one of the teams I
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 1: was on last week. They pulled off a big upset.
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: I believe we're fading Memphis in this game. That's what
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're gonna take Florida Atlantic in this one.
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 1: The public's gonna be on Memphis. I mean, Memphis has
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 1: the name recognition. This looks like a good market read
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: to me. I think you can get the two touchdowns
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 1: on this. Just make sure you can do it. I
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 1: think you can.
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 2: It's up from thirteen and a half to fourteen.
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: Seventy four percent of the tickets are on Memphis, but
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash coming in an FAU.
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: And I know the total is high, up from sixty
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: and a half to sixty two and a half. We're
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: dealing with teams that can score here, So I know.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: I usually like taking the points in games with lower totals,
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: and I know the total is fairly high in the
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 1: Baylor game two at fifty eight, so I'm not really
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: taking the points of low totals. Oh, by the way,
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention Indiana and Iowa. Look at this total,
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 1: it's down to forty seven and a half. Like what
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 1: gives when you see Indiana putting up you know, they
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 1: put up almost six stee points.
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 2: By themselves three games in a row.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: And the total in this game is forty seven, So
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you something with that too. They're
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 1: telling you Iowa might really be able to keep this
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: game lower scoring low total like that. I like taking
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 1: the points when I see a low total like that,
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 1: but holy crap, man, that total is so low based,
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 1: you know, compared to what Indiana's been doing recently, that
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 1: total alone is really telling you something in that game
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: that's crazy. Like the public is seventy eight percent on
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 1: the over, and that one in eighty one percent of
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, but I don't think the
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: cash is actually on the over, although it did drop
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: from the initial key number of fifty one.
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 2: Forty seven is another key number.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 1: But that is such a low total for an Indiana game,
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 1: so that's telling you something too. And then Kansas State
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 1: were laying the point, so I know, I know that's
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 1: a low total. I know, forty nine. I'm a little
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: bit worried about that, but sometimes I break my own
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: rules a little bit here.
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: But it's mostly about the It's mostly about the spots.
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Florida Atlantic, we're gonna take the points here.
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: I know it's a high total, but the money is
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me on this. We're gonna fade Memphis here, man.
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, we know. I had Memphis last week and
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 1: they were able to pull it off. They pulled off
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: the upset of Arkansas. Not only did they pull off
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 1: the upset as seven point underdogs or whatever, but they
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: were losing that game twenty eight to ten and they
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 1: made the comeback, had a really nice late surge in
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 1: that game and won dramatically by one point. Huge win
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 1: for Memphis, man, I.
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: Mean, look at that.
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 1: They came back and they won like right at the end.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: Basically they got that touchdown right near the end to
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: pull ahead by one failed on the two point conversion,
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Big big game from Memphis, big win from
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: Memphis in that one. And I know they do have
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: Tulsa up next To's not a look ahead spot for them,
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 1: but I just think this is a big letdown spot
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 1: for them, and I think it's a good spot for
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. This is a conference game, I know, I
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 1: believe it's actually memphis first conference game, so it is
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 1: their conference opener, but I still don't know that they're
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 1: really going to pay attention to FAU.
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 2: Man they have to go.
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 1: Down to FAU.
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: It is a road game.
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 1: I know they played two other road games, so it's
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 1: not a first road game or anything. But I just
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: think it's a pretty classic letdown spot. But I think
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: the spot is also good on the Florida Atlantic side,
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 1: which is also why I'm doing this. It's also their
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 1: first conference game, so it is their I believe it
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 1: is their conference home opener. So for FAU. Yeah, conference
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 1: home opener for them here, and they're coming out of
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 1: a bye. FAU they did play Maryland earlier in the season,
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 1: so they got a little bit battle tested there.
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 2: FAU has Veldt Camp as their quarterback.
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 2: He's a pretty experienced.
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 1: Quarterback and he was running that really good Western Kentucky
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 1: offense last year, I think maybe the last couple of years.
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 1: So they do have a good quarterback with Velt Camp.
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: It just hasn't really come to fruition yet. But they
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: went into the by on a really bad note. So
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye. They have an extra
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 1: week to prepare for this, so that helps Florida Atlanta
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: but they went into the by losing to one of
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 1: their rivals, really Florida International FAU versus FIU Florida Illinois
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: for those of you, for those of you that followed
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 1: me last year, Florida International. They're not a conference opponent,
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 1: though of it.
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: They went into that game.
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 1: I think FIU was actually a small favorite in that game.
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: But FAU did not play very well against FIU in
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 1: that game, and I think FIU was a small home
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 1: favorite in the game, and they just pulled away late
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 1: and won the game. Looking at this score sheet, though,
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 1: FAU outgained them, so kind of a misleading loss for
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. There they outgained FIU four seventy eight to
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: four oh eight. So FAU put up some offense. Man.
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 1: They were minus two in turnals. They had three turnovers
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: in the game. They had eleven penalties for ninety two yards.
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 1: So that stuff you can clean up, man, especially when
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 1: you go into a bye you're gonna work on that stuff.
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: You can work on penalties, you can work on turning
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 1: the ball over. So I think that's what they're gonna
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: do during the bye, man. So that game was a
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 1: little bit misleading. They're coming out of a bye. Yeah,
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be ready for Memphis. I mean, Memphis coming
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: into their house. It's a big game. Everybody knows Memphis
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: pretty solid team. I mean, they're usually a pretty good team.
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 1: They're usually one of the better teams in this conference.
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 1: And of course the public is only gonna be laying
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 1: it with Memphis as a four and oh team, especially
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 1: after they beat Arkansas and Florida only at one and
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 1: two Florida Atlantic, excuse me, only one and two here,
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 1: and nobody wants any part of that.
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, we're gonna go with FAU.
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: There, man, And that's the final play for me here
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: as I as I mess with my windows here my mistake.
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 1: I was trying to get rid of the banner and
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 1: I hit the one of the windows instead. That's gonna
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 1: do it for me, man. Those are the plays one
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 1: more time, Kansas State minus five and a half, Iowa
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half, Oklahoma State plus twenty one,
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: and FAU plus fourteen. Hopefully we get there with those.
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 1: Gave out the additional leans as well. Hopefully you guys
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 1: like the plays. Let's continue winning in college football, man,
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 1: because it's been good recently, So let's continue it.
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it long video.
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 1: It's really late. I gotta sleep at some point. Learn
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 1: its own on Twitter, Learn its own on Instagram.
• 2:07:00
  Speaker 2: You can check me out there.
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: Of course, Better Off Dead here, like subscribe to the channel.
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 1: Let's get more viewers here. Man, I know I'm too
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 1: long winded on this show, so I don't know. Instagram
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 1: is for the shorter content. Yeah, covered in you because
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: my yuke channels. You can check that on YouTube as well.
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 1: Better Off Dead is also on the audio platform Spotify
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: and Apples. You can give me a review and.
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: Listen there and that helps me out as well.
• 2:07:23
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• 2:07:26
  Speaker 1: you get bonus uke content there.
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 2: Or if you just want to support.
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 1: Me, uh, because you know, I'll at least use some
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: of the money to try to put back into doing
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 1: some of this content. So there is that.
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: But I gotta find a way to live right now too.
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. Thanks everybody for hanging out tonight, and
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning because we still have
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 1: baseball for a couple more days to talk about.
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 2: This is the final.
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 1: Baseball weekend before playoffs start, and I got to set
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 1: up bald Baseball Playoff edition with Clint. I gotta get
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 1: him back on The show Man, so that's gonna happen too.
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 1: I will probably for trying to do that. I don't
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 1: know how many days do we have off for baseball
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 1: before playoffs even start. I don't know. We might have
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 1: to do that on like Monday. I don't know.
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 2: I'll try to figure it out, but we'll see.
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: Sunday night even I don't know, we'll see while football
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 1: is still happening. But yeah, I'll be back tomorrow in
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: the morning, and then of course i'll do an NFL
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 1: show tomorrow night too. I have at least probably two
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: plays that I like in the NFL, but I should
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 1: wind up with more than that. Maybe I usually wind
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 1: up with about three, but we'll see what happens. That's
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for now. Let's get some wins, let's
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 1: get some sleep. Peace everybody,