Latest / The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show / It's a Numbers Game: FRANCE IS FALLING APART: Riots, Mass Looting & a Political Earthquake

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It's a Numbers Game: FRANCE IS FALLING APART: Riots, Mass Looting & a Political Earthquake · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Groduski. Thank
0:02
Speaker 1: you guys for being here. We are less than two
0:05
Speaker 1: weeks away from early voting. France is on fire. It
0:08
Speaker 1: is riot season. It is election season. It's Halloween season.
0:12
Speaker 1: I mean, it's all going on right now. Now, I
0:17
Speaker 1: know on the show, I don't usually tackle foreign topics.
0:20
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people don't care. I think
0:22
Speaker 1: that France right now kind of is important enough to
0:26
Speaker 1: actually talk about. They have an election going on. in 2027,
0:31
Speaker 1: so next year, they are having a lot of issues
0:34
Speaker 1: going on with their overspending and with their tackling issues
0:40
Speaker 1: on the environment, tackling issues on energy. And you're seeing
0:44
Speaker 1: really a ripple and a divide that could affect the
0:46
Speaker 1: entire EU and then eventually affect American trade. It's also
0:50
Speaker 1: a very important moment for the international conservative movement, the
0:53
Speaker 1: international right, especially the international nationalist movement. So I have
0:57
Speaker 1: on a guest later on today, We're going to talk
1:00
Speaker 1: about what's going on in France. I'm very excited. But
1:02
Speaker 1: before we do that, let's discuss what's going on in
1:06
Speaker 1: America right now. So Democrats had a gangbuster first day
1:11
Speaker 1: of early voting in Iowa, Kansas and Texas. Low propensity Democrats.
1:15
Speaker 1: I think this is very important. Democrats who have never
1:20
Speaker 1: voted before are voting in this election. Now, partially, some
1:24
Speaker 1: of them are 18 year olds or they're 19 year olds.
1:26
Speaker 1: They couldn't vote in the last election. So it's not
1:28
Speaker 1: like they are 63-year-olds who are like, hey, I've never
1:31
Speaker 1: voted before. Time to get off my can and start voting. No,
1:34
Speaker 1: a lot of them are 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds. However, it
1:38
Speaker 1: is important to note Republicans of the same age range
1:42
Speaker 1: are not showing up in equal numbers. Democrats are really
1:46
Speaker 1: fired up. We're also seeing in the state of Georgia,
1:50
Speaker 1: very high, very aggressive Black turnout. They don't have party
1:53
Speaker 1: registration in Georgia. Or in Texas, mind you. But Texas,
1:57
Speaker 1: at least they have passed elections. You could see if
2:00
Speaker 1: they voted in the primary in Georgia. Who knows why
2:04
Speaker 1: they do what they do. But we do know party
2:07
Speaker 1: elections by race and voting by race. Black turnout, very high.
2:11
Speaker 1: Black youth turnout, very high. At the same time, a
2:14
Speaker 1: new AGCP, sorry, AJC poll, Atlanta Journal Constitution poll came out.
2:19
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp, outgoing Republican governor of Georgia, 70 percent approval,
2:25
Speaker 1: skyrocketing approval. I think his weighing into the governor's race
2:30
Speaker 1: in the state is what's keeping it competitive, because most
2:33
Speaker 1: polls have found that the Republican Rick Jackson is leading,
2:37
Speaker 1: including the AGC poll. But it was in the margin
2:39
Speaker 1: of error. So it's anyone's game. huge turnout on behalf
2:43
Speaker 1: of Democrats could obviously flip it one way or the other.
2:46
Speaker 1: So trying to get Republicans to keep showing up over
2:49
Speaker 1: the next two weeks is going to be the entire game. Now,
2:53
Speaker 1: I think that it's very important to note, I did
2:55
Speaker 1: not know this. I was doing research for this episode
3:02
Speaker 1: and I was looking at these numbers like in Dallas.
3:04
Speaker 1: Dallas County, not the city, but the county of Dallas
3:07
Speaker 1: in Texas had higher first day voting turnout in 2026
3:11
Speaker 1: than they even had in 2024. And it's a big
3:15
Speaker 1: blue county. And I was like, whoa, this is crazy.
3:18
Speaker 1: Travis County, which is Austin, didn't have as high turnout.
3:22
Speaker 1: But you're seeing the trend continue where very blue counties,
3:26
Speaker 1: very Democratic voters, huge first day early voting. And I
3:30
Speaker 1: was like, I wonder what's going on in these very
3:33
Speaker 1: red states that are just getting people out. Is it
3:35
Speaker 1: just all organic? They just hate Donald Trump. Something that
3:38
Speaker 1: I did not realize that there was another series of
3:41
Speaker 1: no kings rallies over the last week in twenty five
3:46
Speaker 1: hundred municipalities and cities, including Dallas and including Austin, but
3:50
Speaker 1: obviously didn't work that much. But they are really using
3:54
Speaker 1: these no king rallies to get these much older voters,
3:57
Speaker 1: because most of them are older, older Democrats to show
4:01
Speaker 1: up early. And something else we're also seeing when it
4:04
Speaker 1: comes to the early vote is that mail voting is
4:07
Speaker 1: declining substantially. Now, Democrats dominate mail voting, right? But their
4:12
Speaker 1: fear that Trump is tampering with the mail, which is
4:17
Speaker 1: the psychosis happening on the left right now, they believe
4:19
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is somehow changing the way mail-in voting
4:22
Speaker 1: is working or going to stop the mail-in voting from
4:25
Speaker 1: being counted. They are switching how they vote. Democrats are
4:29
Speaker 1: doing much less early voting by mail. much more early
4:33
Speaker 1: voting by in-person voting right now in this election. So
4:37
Speaker 1: we're seeing a very large change and it's happening across
4:41
Speaker 1: the entire country. That's why I don't expect Democrats to
4:45
Speaker 1: have these gargantuan mail-in voting leads, except places like Pennsylvania,
4:50
Speaker 1: which has no early in-person voting. Maybe a few states
4:54
Speaker 1: like that, it may still be very high mail-in voting,
4:56
Speaker 1: but overall across the country, very high in-person voting. And
5:02
Speaker 1: Election day voting will still be Republican. But that's a
5:05
Speaker 1: very interesting phenomena that we're seeing in the way that
5:08
Speaker 1: people are changing how they're voting, even in Florida, which
5:12
Speaker 1: to date has avoided a lot of the blue wave impact.
5:17
Speaker 1: Even in Florida, early voting for Republicans, sorry, the first
5:21
Speaker 1: day of early voting was the least Republican it's been
5:24
Speaker 1: in a very, very long time because Democrats not trusting
5:29
Speaker 1: the mail are going in person. Something to keep an
5:32
Speaker 1: eye on. I'm going to monitor how that changes over
5:36
Speaker 1: the course of this election cycle. If Republicans kind of
5:39
Speaker 1: get their groove back and start showing up in bigger
5:41
Speaker 1: numbers as we get closer to election day, especially those
5:44
Speaker 1: low propensity Republicans. And if the Democrat numbers begin to fade,
5:49
Speaker 1: as most Democrats who want to go vote have already voted.
5:53
Speaker 1: It's not, votes are not like anything else. It's not
5:55
Speaker 1: a social media post. It's not money. You get one
5:57
Speaker 1: shot and then that's that. And I think it's really,
6:00
Speaker 1: really important. OK, enough with the election. I want to
6:04
Speaker 1: talk about a policy issue that was in The New
6:06
Speaker 1: York Times. It made a lot of headway. The graphics did,
6:11
Speaker 1: but it didn't actually get a lot of coverage as
6:13
Speaker 1: far as the details did, which I found fascinating as
6:15
Speaker 1: I read the article. This is from The New York Times.
6:18
Speaker 1: The Trump administration cut legal immigration in half early this
6:22
Speaker 1: year with policies blocking visa for immigrants from nearly half
6:26
Speaker 1: of the globe. the State Department issued just 26,000 immigrant visas,
6:32
Speaker 1: which were a grant of green card and legal permanent
6:35
Speaker 1: residence status in February. So 26,000 in one month. That's
6:39
Speaker 1: down from 52,000 the year before and down even further
6:44
Speaker 1: from when Joe Biden was president. The U.S. is doing
6:47
Speaker 1: these drastic, drastic immigration cuts. So I started examining because
6:53
Speaker 1: the Times reported There are times where I want to
6:56
Speaker 1: burn the New York Times when I'm reading it. However,
6:58
Speaker 1: like the physical paper. However, they do some incredible detail
7:04
Speaker 1: as far as graphics go on the Internet and interactive reporting,
7:07
Speaker 1: which I mean, you got to hand it to them.
7:09
Speaker 1: They did an entire country by country breakdown. So I
7:13
Speaker 1: went through some of the big countries as far as
7:16
Speaker 1: how monthly visas, how many monthly visas are being granted online.
7:23
Speaker 1: from the United States to these countries. So China, we
7:26
Speaker 1: grant a little less than 1,500 visas per month to China.
7:31
Speaker 1: It used to be close to 2,200. So we're down
7:35
Speaker 1: 700 visas per month from China. Russia is on the
7:39
Speaker 1: block list. We used to have almost 500 visas to Russia.
7:43
Speaker 1: We have virtually none now. Algeria, we used to do
7:47
Speaker 1: 370 visas per month. We now do five. Nigeria, we
7:53
Speaker 1: did 750 per month. We now do 60. Brazil, we
7:59
Speaker 1: used to do 480 per month. We now do 70. Colombia,
8:03
Speaker 1: the country of Colombia in South America, used to be
8:06
Speaker 1: 800 per month. It's now 40. Guatemala was 500 per month.
8:12
Speaker 1: It's less than five now. Ethiopia was 620 per month,
8:15
Speaker 1: which why are we giving 620 visas now? Ethiopia per month. Crazy.
8:23
Speaker 1: It's now five. Somalia was 150 per month. It's now zero.
8:27
Speaker 1: Iraq was 220 per month. It's now 10. India was
8:29
Speaker 1: 2,500 per month. Now they're not on the block list,
8:31
Speaker 1: but it's still 2,100 per month. It's still down 40%
8:33
Speaker 1: in India. Syria used to be 220 per month. This is,
8:47
Speaker 1: by the way, when they were having loads of former
8:51
Speaker 1: ISIS people in the country and people in all the
8:55
Speaker 1: different terrorist organizations. We're giving 220 per month. It's now 10.
8:57
Speaker 1: Pakistan used to be 1,550 per month. It's now 60.
8:58
Speaker 1: Afghanistan was 2,900 visas per month.
9:01
Speaker 2: It's now 10.
9:02
Speaker 1: And Bangladesh was 1,300 per month. It's now 25. Those
9:18
Speaker 1: are insane cuts. Those are so dramatic. And why did
9:25
Speaker 1: we need to give 3,000 visas per month to Afghanistan?
9:30
Speaker 2: I don't know. Why?
9:31
Speaker 1: Why did we do that? Why were we giving 1,600
9:34
Speaker 1: almost a month to Pakistan or 1,300 to Bangladesh per month? Like,
9:39
Speaker 1: this is crazy numbers of people coming to this country,
9:44
Speaker 1: it is no wonder that so many people feel like
9:46
Speaker 1: they've been socially isolated. They don't feel like they recognize
9:49
Speaker 1: their country anymore when you're bringing in thousands per month
9:55
Speaker 1: who have no relation, not only to like America, but
9:58
Speaker 1: like the Western world. they don't speak the language all
10:00
Speaker 1: these people i mean give me a break this is
10:03
Speaker 1: crazy and of course the times was like oh but
10:05
Speaker 1: you know this person from some country you've never heard
10:08
Speaker 1: of before they were gonna bring over their adult child
10:11
Speaker 1: i i don't care we don't need their adult child
10:13
Speaker 1: i guarantee you their adult child is not the next
10:15
Speaker 1: einstein like i promise you we're okay. We're going to
10:18
Speaker 1: be okay as a nation without some of those people.
10:21
Speaker 1: This is a gigantic, gigantic win. And by the way,
10:25
Speaker 1: for those who are like, well, this is all Muslim
10:27
Speaker 1: countries or African countries or Latin America, and therefore it's racist.
10:30
Speaker 1: It was actually the cuts even were happening in Europe.
10:33
Speaker 1: The only countries that avoided cuts were the UK, Canada, Mexico,
10:38
Speaker 1: which are neighboring countries, Spain, the Philippines, Turkey, and Kenya.
10:44
Speaker 1: I don't know why those were the countries that It's
10:46
Speaker 1: no rhyme or reason as those were the countries that
10:49
Speaker 1: had actually increased legal immigration during the last year. But
10:54
Speaker 1: that's that. I mean, those it's literally a handful of
10:57
Speaker 1: countries that saw increased legal immigration. And a lot of
11:01
Speaker 1: this is due to President Trump's travel ban. He said
11:05
Speaker 1: also he suspended the diversity visa this year, which I
11:09
Speaker 1: last year. I didn't even know that. And I follow
11:12
Speaker 1: the news like a crazy person. I didn't see that
11:16
Speaker 1: really widely reported. That's a huge win. The diversity visa
11:20
Speaker 1: is one of the dumbest visa categories we offer in
11:23
Speaker 1: this country. It just goes to people from countries where
11:27
Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of immigrants. Now, they don't
11:29
Speaker 1: have to have a skill. They don't have to have
11:31
Speaker 1: a family connection. We just don't have a lot of
11:33
Speaker 1: immigrants from that country. So we bring them over. It
11:35
Speaker 1: was a visa created by Kennedy to get more Irish
11:39
Speaker 1: immigrants in the country in the early 90s. And by
11:42
Speaker 1: the way, it's not being used on Irish immigrants anymore.
11:44
Speaker 1: It's Completely asinine. And for the kids who listen to
11:48
Speaker 1: this podcast who don't know who Teddy Kennedy is, he
11:50
Speaker 1: was the brother of President John F. Kennedy and the
11:53
Speaker 1: brother of Robert F. Kennedy. He was the senator for
11:56
Speaker 1: Massachusetts for like 185 years. The man was in Massachusetts
12:01
Speaker 1: senator forever. His head was kind of shaped like a cantaloupe.
12:05
Speaker 1: his liver from years of heavy drinking was so black
12:09
Speaker 1: and swollen and bloated that it could have been the
12:12
Speaker 1: movie Precious. And he wrote our immigration laws. He also,
12:16
Speaker 1: by the way, killed a woman. Just he let her
12:18
Speaker 1: drown in a river. He drove her, drove his car
12:20
Speaker 1: into a river and let her drown in it. That's
12:22
Speaker 1: the man responsible for our immigration laws that we still
12:25
Speaker 1: follow today. Every time you hear a Republican be like,
12:29
Speaker 1: you know, we have this, we need this diversity. We
12:32
Speaker 1: need this, this diverse immigration policy that doesn't, look at
12:35
Speaker 1: heritage or national origin or any of that stuff, they're
12:38
Speaker 1: defending Teddy Kennedy's immigration policy. That's who wrote it. This
12:43
Speaker 1: is the man that they're defending. That's the ideas behind it.
12:47
Speaker 1: An alcoholic who killed a woman, he wrote all of
12:51
Speaker 1: our immigration laws. And it's conservatives on the right, some
12:54
Speaker 1: of them, who are defending that. Teddy Kennedy's great triumph
12:58
Speaker 1: for America.
13:00
Speaker 2: Anyway....
13:02
Speaker 1: I think this is a major win. I don't know
13:04
Speaker 1: why Republicans aren't celebrating these wins. I don't know why
13:06
Speaker 1: Republicans aren't noting these wins more often. We spend so
13:09
Speaker 1: much time barking at each other. Immigrant visas are down
13:13
Speaker 1: 50 percent from time that Joe Biden was president. This
13:17
Speaker 1: is also from The Times. It says, quote, immigrant visas
13:20
Speaker 1: have been most effective, but visas for students and workers
13:23
Speaker 1: declined as well. falling by 30% compared with the year before.
13:27
Speaker 1: Visas for tourists and business visitors were also down about 25%
13:31
Speaker 1: in February. Visas for seasonal agricultural workers and exchange workers
13:36
Speaker 1: remain at roughly the same level as before, but visas
13:38
Speaker 1: for other seasonal workers in industries like hospitality and tourism declined. Good,
13:43
Speaker 1: hire an American. Hire an American. They can work at
13:47
Speaker 1: the Hilton Holiday Express. There's an American for that job,
13:50
Speaker 1: I promise you. This is a gigantic, gigantic win for America.
13:56
Speaker 1: It's a gigantic win for Republicans. It's insane that we
14:01
Speaker 1: couldn't get a Republican president to do this either in
14:03
Speaker 1: the first Trump term or George W.
14:04
Speaker 2: Bush.
14:05
Speaker 1: You know, he didn't care whatsoever. this is why I'm
14:08
Speaker 1: happy I voted for Donald Trump. Like this is the
14:11
Speaker 1: reason I'm happy I voted for Donald Trump. This is
14:13
Speaker 1: the reason no one should regret that they voted for
14:15
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. This is a win and Republicans should celebrate
14:20
Speaker 1: our wins when we have them because we don't have
14:22
Speaker 1: them every day. Anyway, we'll see if America slides back
14:25
Speaker 1: in November with the midterm election, how badly it is
14:28
Speaker 1: for Republicans, but celebrate the win while you have them.
14:31
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to France and the riots that
14:33
Speaker 1: are happening and how it's affecting their next presidential election.
14:36
Speaker 1: That's coming up next. Philip LeMond is a writer on Substack.
14:41
Speaker 1: I've been following his work for a very long time.
14:43
Speaker 1: I think he's very, very bright. Thank you for on
14:45
Speaker 1: this podcast. I really appreciate it.
14:47
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
14:49
Speaker 1: So first question I want to ask you is there
14:52
Speaker 1: seems to be a difference between the protests and the riots.
14:58
Speaker 1: Is there a big difference between who is causing the
15:01
Speaker 1: protests to happen and who's causing the riots to happen?
15:05
Speaker 2: Yes, there are essentially three different strands here that I
15:09
Speaker 2: think needs to be distinguished. So on the one hand,
15:14
Speaker 2: like if you're looking at last weekend's protest, those were
15:18
Speaker 2: for the most part traditional French protests about the cost
15:23
Speaker 2: of living. They had been planned since the beginning of September.
15:29
Speaker 2: And they were organized by a monthly coalition of unions.
15:34
Speaker 2: Not all unions participated, but some of them did. Unions,
15:39
Speaker 2: left-wing political parties, and a bunch of groups that were
15:45
Speaker 2: created after the Yellow Vest Movement in 2018, 2019, mostly 2018.
15:52
Speaker 2: And so those were like fairly typical French protests about
15:55
Speaker 2: the cost of living. These sort of things tend to
15:57
Speaker 2: happen every year after summer. They were pretty large this
16:02
Speaker 2: year because the left was energized by the recent high
16:09
Speaker 2: school protests. And the high school protests, like they were different.
16:14
Speaker 2: They peaked about two weeks ago and they had more
16:17
Speaker 2: or less already fizzled out. But because they put a
16:21
Speaker 2: lot of people in the streets, it energized the left
16:23
Speaker 2: that hoped they could ride out that wave too and
16:27
Speaker 2: get more people, which they did. There is also the
16:29
Speaker 2: fact that the economy is in pretty bad shape right now.
16:34
Speaker 2: So real GDP growth is going to be essentially zero
16:38
Speaker 2: this year. Inflation is running high. In particular, the price
16:44
Speaker 2: of gas is very high because of the war right now.
16:47
Speaker 2: So people are really pissed about this in France. And finally,
16:52
Speaker 2: Macron has been here for almost 10 years. and is
16:57
Speaker 2: extremely unpopular so if you put all that together that
17:00
Speaker 2: explains why the protests though fairly typical like for this
17:05
Speaker 2: period in France were well attended but then you have
17:10
Speaker 2: like two different things that are added on top of
17:13
Speaker 2: this and which are responsible for the violence so You
17:17
Speaker 2: have those fairly large protests that, again, they were pretty large,
17:21
Speaker 2: not really huge by French standards. We've seen much larger protests,
17:28
Speaker 2: but they were still pretty large. And then what happens
17:30
Speaker 2: is that you have two other elements that piggyback on
17:35
Speaker 2: those protests and are responsible for the violence. You have,
17:39
Speaker 2: on the one hand, essentially professional far-left activists who joined
17:45
Speaker 2: the protests typically toward the end, although this time it
17:49
Speaker 2: started even earlier in some places, like especially Marseille, and
17:54
Speaker 2: to some extent Paris, but especially Marseille, who take advantage
17:58
Speaker 2: of this protest to fight the police, you know, cause mayhem,
18:05
Speaker 2: because their goal is to create chaos because they think,
18:09
Speaker 2: you know... their side will benefit from it, which I
18:15
Speaker 2: think is kind of delusional. I mean, they still have
18:18
Speaker 2: the fantasy of the revolution, et cetera. But like, so
18:22
Speaker 2: those guys typically toward the end, like of protests, when
18:25
Speaker 2: the protests disperse, it becomes harder for the police to
18:31
Speaker 2: control the situation because then people will start to scatter.
18:34
Speaker 2: So they're no longer concentrated in one place. You no
18:37
Speaker 2: longer have the unions who have like a security service to, uh,
18:41
Speaker 2: watch what's happening. You don't have the mass of the protesters,
18:44
Speaker 2: the peaceful demonstrators who are like, uh, restraining, you know,
18:48
Speaker 2: the troublemakers. So, uh, that's when things go bad. And
18:54
Speaker 2: this has been, this is also has been like typical,
18:57
Speaker 2: but what's not typical is like the, the degree of
19:00
Speaker 2: violence we've seen this, this weekend. Like it's been, uh,
19:04
Speaker 2: this sort of things have becoming, I've been like becoming
19:08
Speaker 2: worse in recent years. Uh, And it was really bad
19:13
Speaker 2: this weekend, last weekend. And then the third strand is
19:18
Speaker 2: that as this happens, you have a number, like essentially
19:24
Speaker 2: opportunistic gangs of hoodlums from the suburbs, where in France,
19:28
Speaker 2: it's like very different from the U.S. In France, the
19:30
Speaker 2: suburbs is where immigrants and poor people are concentrated. And
19:36
Speaker 2: to those who are like almost entirely black and Arab
19:41
Speaker 2: kids from the projects in the suburbs, just join opportunistically
19:47
Speaker 2: the protests and take advantage of the chaos created largely
19:51
Speaker 2: by those far-left activists who are fighting the police to
19:54
Speaker 2: just also riot and break stuff, but mostly loot stores.
20:00
Speaker 2: And so that's why you see those pictures.
20:02
Speaker 1: So I want to, I want to add, because it
20:04
Speaker 1: does seem like it's mostly far less activists and third
20:08
Speaker 1: world migrants. You're not bringing a Palestinian flag if you
20:10
Speaker 1: are upset about oil prices. Like you're just not, like
20:13
Speaker 1: that's not a part of the conversation.
20:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the Palestinian flag at this point, the,
20:20
Speaker 2: like it's just a, it's become like a, it's become
20:25
Speaker 2: a big thing for the left in general, like globally,
20:27
Speaker 2: including France. So, You will see those flags, like if
20:33
Speaker 2: you have a protest of mostly far-left activists, a telltale
20:37
Speaker 2: sign that allows you to distinguish whether it's just far-left
20:42
Speaker 2: activists or also children of immigrants, is whether you will
20:48
Speaker 2: see other foreign flags, mostly in France, Algerian flags and
20:53
Speaker 2: Moroccan flags. But... I mean, you know, so the vast, like,
21:01
Speaker 2: majority of the protesters, like, what allows the situation to
21:05
Speaker 2: reach this critical mass is about the cost of living.
21:09
Speaker 2: I mean, those are, they're making, you know, even those people, like,
21:12
Speaker 2: they're making very inchoate demands, you know. It's like, you know,
21:16
Speaker 2: protesting the cost of living, the cost of living is
21:18
Speaker 2: not a policy or anything, you know. Right.
21:20
Speaker 1: But, you know, that's.
21:22
Speaker 2: But that is what, you know, they're opposing Macron. So
21:25
Speaker 2: you would see like slogans against Macron, against the cost
21:29
Speaker 2: of living, against pension reforms. Like those are fairly typical
21:33
Speaker 2: left-wing French slogans. And then, you know, you will also
21:39
Speaker 2: see Palestinian flags because again, it's because it's become like
21:43
Speaker 2: a big cause on the left. I mean, it doesn't mean,
21:47
Speaker 2: you know, that's like, I see now you have people like...
21:51
Speaker 2: who are trying to pretend that this is, because there
21:54
Speaker 2: are Palestinian flags in the protests, the protests are really
21:57
Speaker 2: about their, not about the cost of living, but they're
21:59
Speaker 2: about the Israeli-Palestinian issue. It's not, you know, it's.
22:04
Speaker 1: Just that the left At this point, the global left
22:09
Speaker 1: attracts third world romanticism of any kind. It's just automatic.
22:15
Speaker 2: If you have a left-wing protest at this point, you
22:17
Speaker 2: will have Palestinian flags. It doesn't mean that it's about
22:19
Speaker 2: the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
22:22
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not really. I want to I want
22:24
Speaker 1: to ask about how certain politicians are responding in France,
22:27
Speaker 1: because I think that that really speaks to a larger
22:30
Speaker 1: thing of how France is moving. So I want to
22:33
Speaker 1: ask you a few politicians and how their responses. So
22:35
Speaker 1: the first is about President Macron, of course, because he
22:39
Speaker 1: is still the president. He's an outgoing president. He's been
22:41
Speaker 1: there for a decade. He seems highly ineffective. He was
22:45
Speaker 1: at the Celine Dion concert when one of these riots
22:47
Speaker 1: were happening. What has his reaction been? I mean, I
22:52
Speaker 1: heard he's doing national curfews, but very little considering the
22:56
Speaker 1: magnitude of the violence of the riots.
22:59
Speaker 2: So, I mean, Macron, he's kind of disconnected at this point.
23:04
Speaker 2: I mean, it's been for a while. And there isn't
23:08
Speaker 2: really much he can do because he's so unpopular right now.
23:11
Speaker 2: I mean, it's like, you know, his ratings are, It
23:15
Speaker 2: depends on the polls, but like recent polls have him
23:17
Speaker 2: at like 15%. I don't think people realize in the
23:20
Speaker 2: US I'm popular. 15%?
23:21
Speaker 1: 15, one five, yes.
23:21
Speaker 2: Oh.
23:25
Speaker 1: Wow, it makes Trump look like he's, you know, the
23:27
Speaker 1: most popular man in the room.
23:29
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the comparison is not entirely fair
23:32
Speaker 2: because you have a bipolar political environment. So just because
23:37
Speaker 2: of polarization, it's very unlikely that any U.S. president will
23:41
Speaker 2: go that low, whereas in France and other countries, this
23:44
Speaker 2: is possible. But still, you know, even by French standards, 15%
23:48
Speaker 2: is very low. So he is extremely unpopular. He's completely disconnected.
23:54
Speaker 2: He spoke after the riots, but didn't say anything, really.
24:00
Speaker 2: And then there was a major fuck-up by the government.
24:06
Speaker 2: This should not have happened. It's pretty clear that the
24:10
Speaker 2: government did not mobilize enough police last weekend because it
24:16
Speaker 2: seems that French intelligence underestimated how big it would be.
24:21
Speaker 2: It's become harder recently, in recent years, to estimate those
24:25
Speaker 2: things because, again, it used to be that protests were
24:27
Speaker 2: entirely organized by the unions, so they would coordinate in
24:30
Speaker 2: advance with the government and the police. It was fairly
24:35
Speaker 2: easy to predict how things would go down and, you know,
24:38
Speaker 2: to channel the protests, etc. Now, with social media... It's
24:44
Speaker 2: become more disorganized, harder to predict. But still, you know,
24:47
Speaker 2: they really messed up. And the government did not mobilize
24:51
Speaker 2: enough police. So it was pretty clear, like there was
24:54
Speaker 2: surreal images, you know, throughout the weekend where you would
24:59
Speaker 2: see people loot with seemingly total impunity. And the police
25:04
Speaker 2: were nowhere to be seen.
25:05
Speaker 1: It reminded me of Black Lives Matter. It didn't.
25:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, so they just didn't have enough people, clearly. And
25:12
Speaker 2: it's also possible that they had, that because of the
25:17
Speaker 2: criticism of the use of force during the high school
25:21
Speaker 2: protests that happened in previous weeks, they had instructions to
25:25
Speaker 2: show restraints, which made things even more difficult. But, you know,
25:30
Speaker 2: clearly they did not mobilize enough people because they did
25:32
Speaker 2: not estimate correctly how well attended the protests would be,
25:37
Speaker 2: how many of those like far left activists and hoodlums
25:43
Speaker 2: from the suburbs, the projects would come. So that's a
25:49
Speaker 2: major fuck up. And the minister of the interior should
25:52
Speaker 2: obviously have resigned. Right. I mean, you know, it's like
25:57
Speaker 2: the least he could have done. And he actually presented
26:00
Speaker 2: his resignation to Macron on Monday morning and Macron refused it.
26:05
Speaker 2: He is completely disconnected. I don't think people in the U.S.
26:10
Speaker 2: realize how disconnected he is. He's in a parallel universe,
26:14
Speaker 2: but he also has no authority anymore because he's a
26:19
Speaker 2: lame duck president. He's about to go. He's very unpopular.
26:23
Speaker 2: But the government is messed up during the weekend. Then
26:27
Speaker 2: on Monday, they declared a localized curfews. especially in Paris,
26:34
Speaker 2: which seemed to have temporarily ended the violence. The big
26:38
Speaker 2: question now is what's going to happen next weekend, because
26:41
Speaker 2: the same organization that called for those protests are again
26:45
Speaker 2: calling for protests this weekend. I think this time the
26:49
Speaker 2: government will mobilize a massive amount of police to prevent
26:55
Speaker 2: something like this to happen again, but it may also
26:59
Speaker 2: You know, what happened may also energize the protesters and rioters. So,
27:03
Speaker 2: you know, who knows? We're going to find out. This
27:05
Speaker 2: weekend is going to be important.
27:07
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the successors of Macron's party,
27:11
Speaker 1: Attal and Philippe. Those are the two politicians running to
27:15
Speaker 1: be his successors, mostly Eduardo Philippe, who was the former
27:17
Speaker 1: prime minister. How does this impact him? Because he wants
27:21
Speaker 1: to be the president of France after Macron leaves. It
27:25
Speaker 1: cannot be positive for Philippe.
27:28
Speaker 2: No, Edouard Philippe is the former, he was the first
27:31
Speaker 2: prime minister of Macron after he was elected, after Macron
27:34
Speaker 2: was elected president the first time. And so I can't
27:41
Speaker 2: believe you're drinking coffee in that glass.
27:43
Speaker 1: Sorry, I always drink coffee out of a wine glass.
27:46
Speaker 1: You know, I don't drink wine enough. So you got
27:47
Speaker 1: to use your wine glasses somehow. I drink coffee.
27:49
Speaker 2: Yes. This is really disturbing me. Sorry. But so he
27:55
Speaker 2: was the first prime minister of Macron after he was
27:57
Speaker 2: elected in 2017. And as you mentioned, he wants to
28:02
Speaker 2: be the next president. He's the most serious centrist candidate
28:07
Speaker 2: for next year's presidential election. And obviously it's a major
28:12
Speaker 2: problem for him because, you know, those... those riots are
28:18
Speaker 2: going to be extremely unpopular in France for obvious reasons.
28:21
Speaker 2: And so he needs to, and people are very upset
28:24
Speaker 2: about the situation, so he needs to create some distance
28:29
Speaker 2: between him and the government, although his party is supporting
28:33
Speaker 2: the government in parliament. And he needs to criticize Macron
28:39
Speaker 2: and the government for the way in which, the disastrous
28:41
Speaker 2: way in which they handled the protests and riots. But
28:46
Speaker 2: this is difficult because, again, he is a former prime
28:49
Speaker 2: minister of Macron. And he's supporting the government in parliament.
28:55
Speaker 2: So it's a tricky balancing act for him. And there
28:59
Speaker 2: is no good solution. So this is clearly bad for him. Attal,
29:05
Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, Attal is a non-entity.
29:08
Speaker 1: Because he's in a lot of polls. So it's, I mean,
29:11
Speaker 1: I read a lot.
29:12
Speaker 2: He's like, he's like including most polls because he's essentially
29:16
Speaker 2: the center left part of the, of Macron's coalition, whereas
29:21
Speaker 2: Philippe is the center right part. But, you know, France
29:26
Speaker 2: is pretty right wing at this point. So Attal doesn't,
29:29
Speaker 2: Attal most likely will eventually quit and join Philippe, you know.
29:36
Speaker 1: Let me explain to my American audience. When Macron ran,
29:39
Speaker 1: he created this new party of all centrist coalitions, the
29:42
Speaker 1: center-right and the center-left. And it's basically a party of
29:45
Speaker 1: a personality. It's a party of Macron. And trying to
29:47
Speaker 1: hold that together for a party without Macron being in it,
29:51
Speaker 1: it seems very, very hard. So it's an argument of,
29:54
Speaker 1: is the center-left of that coalition, the center-right going to hold?
29:56
Speaker 1: I want to talk about just three other people very quickly.
30:01
Speaker 1: One is Jean-Luc Mélenchon. For those for the American audience,
30:04
Speaker 1: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the far left leader of the of
30:07
Speaker 1: the party called France Unbound. He is his version of America,
30:12
Speaker 1: like the Bernie Sanders of France, although he is much
30:15
Speaker 1: further left than Bernie Sanders is. He's very against air
30:17
Speaker 1: conditioning is one of his big recent public statements. And
30:21
Speaker 1: he's been a champion of the riots. He's really supported
30:24
Speaker 1: the protests. I would just say more than the riots.
30:28
Speaker 1: But he is trying to he's an older man. He's
30:30
Speaker 1: trying to use this as a as a catapult to
30:32
Speaker 1: being the president of France. Can you explain who Jean-Luc
30:38
Speaker 1: Mélenchon is trying to use this to kind of move
30:42
Speaker 1: France into a very progressive future?
30:44
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not even sure I would say that
30:49
Speaker 2: he's trying to use the protest to become president because I.
30:55
Speaker 2: I'm not sure even he's delusional enough to think that
30:58
Speaker 2: this will help him become president. But it does seem
31:01
Speaker 2: to have like this strategy of chaos. And it's kind
31:04
Speaker 2: of like an automatic support for protests in general. He
31:07
Speaker 2: doesn't like obviously he's not going to go on television
31:09
Speaker 2: and say, I support rioting and looting. Of course, he
31:14
Speaker 2: doesn't say that.
31:15
Speaker 1: He says some very loony things, though, on television.
31:18
Speaker 2: He does. He definitely says really loony and irresponsible things.
31:22
Speaker 2: He is much more radical than Bernie Sanders. If you
31:24
Speaker 2: think Bernie Sanders is a dangerous leftist.
31:28
Speaker 1: He is the only American comparison. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No,
31:32
Speaker 1: I understand.
31:34
Speaker 2: So Mélenchon is kind of a typical left-wing populist demagogue, right?
31:41
Speaker 2: He's closer to like Chavez, for instance, something like that.
31:50
Speaker 2: And so he's like hoping to lead those protests against,
31:57
Speaker 2: you know, on the cost of living, etc., hoping that
32:02
Speaker 2: it will allow him, you know, again, I doubt, I mean,
32:07
Speaker 2: he may believe it. He may believe that he has
32:09
Speaker 2: a shot at being president because people, politicians, you know,
32:13
Speaker 2: always delusional like they, but they believe in their chances,
32:18
Speaker 2: you know, like, who knows? But certainly he wants to
32:21
Speaker 2: be the leader of the left. And he, and, you know, it's,
32:25
Speaker 2: Supporting those protests and being at the forefront of them
32:29
Speaker 2: is the way for him to achieve that, or to
32:31
Speaker 2: try to achieve that. But he is mostly succeeding in that.
32:35
Speaker 2: The left in France has really shrunk. But Mélenchon is
32:43
Speaker 2: the main left-wing politician at this point. And so for him,
32:47
Speaker 2: it's not so much, I think, again, he may be delusional,
32:50
Speaker 2: but I kind of doubt he's so delusional that he
32:52
Speaker 2: thinks he has a chance of winning. what he's hoping,
32:56
Speaker 2: I think, is to be the one to make it
32:59
Speaker 2: to the runoff against Le Pen next year, next year's
33:02
Speaker 2: presidential election. We know Le Pen is going to be,
33:05
Speaker 2: is going to come first in the first round of
33:07
Speaker 2: the presidential election. Nobody doubts this for a second. She
33:10
Speaker 2: will make, she will get like at least one third
33:12
Speaker 2: of the vote. And the question, the big question for
33:17
Speaker 2: next year presidential election is who will join her in
33:20
Speaker 2: the runoff? Because there's only two candidates. The way it
33:23
Speaker 2: works in France is that you have a first round
33:26
Speaker 2: of the presidential election. The two candidates.
33:29
Speaker 1: All the parties run together.
33:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, all the parties run together. It's essentially a kind
33:33
Speaker 2: of giant primary. But we don't have a two-party system.
33:38
Speaker 2: So there are like several parties and candidates. And then
33:41
Speaker 2: the first two candidates make it to the runoff. And
33:44
Speaker 2: then the person who gets more than 50% in the
33:47
Speaker 2: runoff becomes the president. And so Mélenchon is hoping that
33:50
Speaker 2: he will... And so the big question right now is
33:55
Speaker 2: who of Philippe or Mélenchon will be second and will
34:02
Speaker 2: face Le Pen in the second round. There is also
34:05
Speaker 2: another candidate who right now seems competitive in the center-left
34:10
Speaker 2: candidate called Glucksmann, Raphael Glucksmann, who right now looks competitive
34:18
Speaker 2: in polls. My prediction is that This won't last. But
34:22
Speaker 2: who knows? You know, it's I.
34:24
Speaker 1: Mean, let me before we go into the presidential, I
34:26
Speaker 1: want to get to that for one second. I have
34:28
Speaker 1: I have one other person before I talk about Le Pen.
34:30
Speaker 2: Yeah.
34:31
Speaker 1: The New York Times over the weekend had a huge
34:34
Speaker 1: profile about a mayor I have never heard of before
34:38
Speaker 1: named Bali Bako Yoko. I believe he pronounced his name.
34:42
Speaker 1: They called him the French Mondani. I mean, they could
34:46
Speaker 1: not have been kissing his ass harder in this profile.
34:49
Speaker 1: But he is essentially become, he claims to be the
34:51
Speaker 1: face of the protests. Is this true? I just needed
34:54
Speaker 1: to ask a French person because it was so overhyped
34:58
Speaker 1: that he was this, he's an African mayor of a
35:01
Speaker 1: suburb of Paris.
35:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, the mayor was recently elected of Saint-Denis, which is
35:07
Speaker 2: a huge, a small town, but like enlarged by the
35:12
Speaker 2: standards of the suburbs, you know, the suburbs of Paris
35:15
Speaker 2: with like heavy immigrant presence. And he has become a
35:24
Speaker 2: pretty big figure on the French left because he's representative
35:29
Speaker 2: of those voters who are either immigrants themselves or children
35:37
Speaker 2: of immigrants. He comes from perhaps the most well-known suburban
35:44
Speaker 2: city in France with a heavy immigrant presence. So, All
35:50
Speaker 2: this is giving him a lot of exposure, but to
35:52
Speaker 2: say that he's the face of the protest is like
35:55
Speaker 2: a wild exaggeration.
35:56
Speaker 1: Okay. I had to ask because the New York Times
35:59
Speaker 1: was like.
35:59
Speaker 2: No, no. He's honestly not that important. He's become a
36:05
Speaker 2: big focus on the rights because he's seen not entirely
36:11
Speaker 2: unjustifiably as... you know, encouraging first, uh, he was encouraging the,
36:19
Speaker 2: the high school protests before and now the, those protests,
36:22
Speaker 2: you know, uh, irrespective of the fact that they will
36:25
Speaker 2: predictably turn, uh, sorry, but, uh, I mean, you know,
36:29
Speaker 2: at the same time, again, he's not, you know, you're
36:31
Speaker 2: not going to find him like calling for exclusively calling for, um, violence,
36:36
Speaker 2: riots and violence. But, you know, so he's become like
36:39
Speaker 2: a big, a big of a bit of an obsession
36:42
Speaker 2: on the right in France. But, you know, to call
36:44
Speaker 2: him the face of the protest is kind of.
36:46
Speaker 1: So The New York Times is incorrect.
36:48
Speaker 2: All right.
36:48
Speaker 1: So let's talk about Marine Le Pen for a second.
36:50
Speaker 1: Marine Le Pen, for those I'm sure everyone knows who
36:53
Speaker 1: she is now, but I'll just for the American audience,
36:55
Speaker 1: she is a leader of National Rally is a nationalist
37:00
Speaker 1: right wing group. They have Left-wing economic policies, right-wing immigration
37:04
Speaker 1: and military and other policies, they were very critical of
37:08
Speaker 1: the EU for a very long time. They're lesser so now.
37:11
Speaker 1: Marine took over her father, who was the head of
37:13
Speaker 1: the party for decades. He was kind of the villain
37:16
Speaker 1: of France. He talked a lot about the Holocaust and
37:18
Speaker 1: about the Algerian war and all this other stuff. He's
37:20
Speaker 1: passed away since. And she has mainstreamed the party. She's
37:23
Speaker 1: run for president three times. Every time, she's gotten a
37:26
Speaker 1: little closer. She got 18% the first time, 34% the
37:27
Speaker 1: second time, and 41% the third time. Polls show her
37:33
Speaker 1: ahead against everybody, against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far left candidate.
37:37
Speaker 1: She's ahead by 30 points. It's like going to be
37:39
Speaker 1: a landslide if it's the two of them. You've always
37:42
Speaker 1: been a skeptic of Marine Le Pen's chances of ever
37:44
Speaker 1: being president. What, and I've followed your work for a
37:48
Speaker 1: long time. Do you think this is the moment for
37:51
Speaker 1: Le Pen finally to come out of this and to
37:54
Speaker 1: win the presidency?
37:55
Speaker 2: She definitely has a shot at that. which to be
37:58
Speaker 2: clear is something I would never have said even a
38:01
Speaker 2: couple of years ago. So you're right to say so,
38:03
Speaker 2: you know, like if I say that it means she
38:05
Speaker 2: really has a shot. But I do think people are
38:11
Speaker 2: too quick in concluding, especially after those riots, that she's
38:17
Speaker 2: already won. I don't think it's going to be as
38:19
Speaker 2: easy as people think. I mean, again, you know, there
38:23
Speaker 2: are two scenarios here. One, she faces Mélenchon, in the
38:28
Speaker 2: second round. Um, if this happens, she will win. It's
38:34
Speaker 2: like virtually certain she will win, but she won't win
38:37
Speaker 2: with like the kind of margin that polls are predicting
38:39
Speaker 2: right now. Like people, you know, need to understand that
38:43
Speaker 2: between the two rounds, there will be like a heavy
38:45
Speaker 2: propaganda campaign. Like you have to understand that for decades, the,
38:50
Speaker 2: the Le Pen name is, is like, is completely radioactive.
38:55
Speaker 2: Mostly because of her father. Um, But as you said,
38:58
Speaker 2: you know, her father was the great villain in French
39:01
Speaker 2: politics for decades and she has inherited his name. And
39:05
Speaker 2: so between the two rounds, there will be like a
39:09
Speaker 2: lot of propaganda and a lot of people are like
39:12
Speaker 2: very reluctant to vote for anyone named Le Pen, the
39:16
Speaker 2: national rally in general, but especially someone named Le Pen. So,
39:21
Speaker 2: you know, she will still win if it's Mélenchon because
39:24
Speaker 2: at this point, you know, France is just, too right-wing
39:27
Speaker 2: a country and he's made too many controversial statements and
39:32
Speaker 2: he's just too much of a lunatic at this point
39:35
Speaker 2: that she will win. But I very much doubt she
39:38
Speaker 2: will win by the kind of margin that polls are
39:40
Speaker 2: showing right now. Those polls, you know, they're like a
39:44
Speaker 2: picture image Right now, but things will evolve. You know,
39:49
Speaker 2: things are dynamic. They will evolve as, you know, more
39:53
Speaker 2: people call for voting against her, et cetera, et cetera.
39:56
Speaker 2: But still, she will win in that scenario. Then there
39:59
Speaker 2: is another, and that scenario is a definite possibility, you know,
40:02
Speaker 2: like Mélenchon can make it to the second round. He's hoping, again,
40:07
Speaker 2: I doubt he thinks, he's so delusional that he thinks
40:09
Speaker 2: he can be president. But I think one thing he
40:12
Speaker 2: almost certainly hopes is that he can make it to
40:15
Speaker 2: the second round, then he will lose against Le Pen.
40:18
Speaker 2: But that's not too bad for him because then he
40:19
Speaker 2: becomes the official opposition to no president Le Pen. And
40:25
Speaker 2: that puts him in a very good position in the
40:30
Speaker 2: next few years. And this is a realistic prospect. This
40:35
Speaker 2: is something that could happen. It will depend on whether
40:38
Speaker 2: Mélenchon can... come second in the first round of the election.
40:42
Speaker 2: Another scenario, which is much trickier for Le Pen, is
40:47
Speaker 2: if Philippe comes second and makes it to the runoff.
40:51
Speaker 2: Right now, if you look at polls, they still show
40:55
Speaker 2: Le Pen winning fairly comfortably, nothing like the kind of
40:58
Speaker 2: margin you see if she's facing, in face-up with Mélenchon,
41:03
Speaker 2: but still pretty comfortably. Uh, If I had to bet personally, again,
41:09
Speaker 2: you know, it's a picture right now. It's before you
41:11
Speaker 2: have all the propaganda and all that. If I had
41:15
Speaker 2: to bet, I would say I would put my money
41:17
Speaker 2: on Philippe in that scenario. I wouldn't put a lot
41:20
Speaker 2: of money though. Like this is, she can totally win
41:24
Speaker 2: that even against Philippe. And obviously what just happened makes
41:29
Speaker 2: her stronger and is bad for Philippe.
41:33
Speaker 1: That says a lot because you have, you've spent many, many,
41:36
Speaker 1: many years, I've followed your work and you said there's
41:38
Speaker 1: no way Le Pen, anyone with Le Pen's last name
41:41
Speaker 1: can win the presidency.
41:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. I've been very skeptical. I mean, you know,
41:45
Speaker 2: and less people think that I say that because I
41:48
Speaker 2: like Le Pen. I actually really don't like Le Pen.
41:50
Speaker 2: I don't like a party, even though like I'm an
41:53
Speaker 2: anti-immigration guy. And like, I mean, you know, I think they're,
41:57
Speaker 2: I think they're just totally incompetent, to be honest.
42:00
Speaker 1: So, you know, I, Their.
42:02
Speaker 2: Economic policies are terrible. Honestly, even on immigration, I don't
42:05
Speaker 2: believe they will achieve anything because they're just too incompetent.
42:08
Speaker 2: And it's not, you know, you have to be, you
42:10
Speaker 2: need serious people to do things. But so, you know,
42:13
Speaker 2: so I just say that so people don't think that
42:16
Speaker 2: this is just.
42:16
Speaker 1: Wishful thinking on my part.
42:17
Speaker 2: No, no, no.
42:17
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have you on if I just thought you
42:19
Speaker 1: were a cheerleader. I rarely have cheerleaders on. But wait,
42:22
Speaker 1: I want to ask you.
42:23
Speaker 2: It's not wishful thinking. So she has a real shot.
42:26
Speaker 2: But I think, I do think people, it's not going
42:29
Speaker 2: to be that easy. You know, like if she faces
42:32
Speaker 2: Philippe in the second round, I will still put my
42:34
Speaker 2: money on Philippe. Though, again, I wouldn't put a lot
42:36
Speaker 2: of money. But she can win. She can definitely win.
42:39
Speaker 1: I want to ask you one last question and then
42:41
Speaker 1: we'll wrap. But so... Macron is the representation to an
42:46
Speaker 1: American who follows European politics of like the last breath
42:50
Speaker 1: of centrist Western governments.
42:52
Speaker 2: Right.
42:53
Speaker 1: You had Merkel. You had Cameron. You had so many
42:56
Speaker 1: of these leaders who are all retired at this point.
43:00
Speaker 1: And you have the biggest European politician in the world
43:05
Speaker 1: right now is Giorgio Maloney is the most identified or well-known,
43:08
Speaker 1: I would say.
43:09
Speaker 2: Right.
43:10
Speaker 1: Most people could not identify the German chancellor if you
43:13
Speaker 1: gave him $ 100. Most people do not know who Andy
43:16
Speaker 1: Burnham is. He's just the new UK prime minister, but
43:19
Speaker 1: he has already, you know, he just got there. Spain
43:22
Speaker 1: has elections. France has elections. The AFD has won a
43:27
Speaker 1: series of Eastern German elections. And certainly, Nigel Farage is
43:32
Speaker 1: at least a player in the UK, although he's not
43:34
Speaker 1: leading in the polls anymore. What does it say... Is
43:39
Speaker 1: there a possibility that we wake up in 2027 at
43:43
Speaker 1: some point and say, Spain has a right-wing nationalist government,
43:47
Speaker 1: France has Le Pen as president, Italy still has Maloney
43:50
Speaker 1: as leader of Italy, and Europe has changed and become
43:54
Speaker 1: a right-wing, much more nationalistic continent? Does that say anything
43:58
Speaker 1: about the whole European project and central coalition that is
44:03
Speaker 1: just over?
44:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's a definite possibility. Like Spain is
44:11
Speaker 2: going to have elections soon. And I mean, you know,
44:14
Speaker 2: I would never bury Sanchez because people have tried to
44:16
Speaker 2: bury him so many times and he's always managed to
44:20
Speaker 2: pull it off somehow. But still, it doesn't look great
44:22
Speaker 2: for him right now. So that's, you know, a Vox-PP
44:27
Speaker 2: coalition seems like a definite possibility. In France, again, I
44:30
Speaker 2: think it's not done, but like Le Pen has a
44:32
Speaker 2: serious shot, you know, And if this happens, I mean,
44:37
Speaker 2: you know, in France, another question is like, so even
44:39
Speaker 2: if Le Pen wins, then another question is, will she
44:42
Speaker 2: get a majority in parliament? That's another thing that's not
44:45
Speaker 2: obvious because right after the election, she will dissolve the
44:49
Speaker 2: parliament and we'll have like.
44:51
Speaker 1: A legislative election.
44:55
Speaker 2: And it's quite possible that even in the scenario where
44:59
Speaker 2: she's won the presidential election, There will be an argument
45:03
Speaker 2: that will be made by the other parties, which will
45:05
Speaker 2: be basically, look, now she's president. It's the far right.
45:10
Speaker 2: You know, it's dangerous. We need to have a counter
45:13
Speaker 2: power in parliament. So you should like elect us and
45:16
Speaker 2: not give a majority to the national rally. And this
45:19
Speaker 2: may very well work, in which case, you know, France
45:21
Speaker 2: could become like, again, ungovernable, like the way it is
45:24
Speaker 2: right now, because there is no majority in parliament. But
45:28
Speaker 2: certainly we're looking at a situation in Europe, across Europe,
45:32
Speaker 2: not just France or Spain, where because of a combination
45:38
Speaker 2: of economic dissatisfaction, you know, between COVID, the war, the
45:46
Speaker 2: Ukraine war, and then now the Iran war, you know,
45:50
Speaker 2: The energy prices are increasing a lot. Europe is very
45:54
Speaker 2: vulnerable to this. We have like anemic growth, economic growth.
45:58
Speaker 2: So this real disposable income is not growing, often even
46:01
Speaker 2: like receding. So people are pissed. And then you have,
46:07
Speaker 2: of course, immigration, which is massively unpopular across Europe. And
46:14
Speaker 2: that centrist candidates have like refused to seriously address. I mean, no,
46:18
Speaker 2: they've been Even they have been forced to make some
46:22
Speaker 2: anti-immigration noises, but it's not enough. And of course, even
46:27
Speaker 2: if they started seriously to address the problem, it's not
46:31
Speaker 2: as if it's something you can just snap your fingers
46:33
Speaker 2: and it will be solved. But certainly, all those different
46:38
Speaker 2: factors make a populist right-wing surge in Europe quite likely.
46:46
Speaker 2: And obviously this will change things at the European level.
46:50
Speaker 2: Already there was a massive fight a few days ago
46:53
Speaker 2: among European leaders in Brussels, which were about immigration, where
47:01
Speaker 2: several parties, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, wanted to phrase the communiqué
47:10
Speaker 2: at the end of the summit to be harsher on
47:13
Speaker 2: immigration and France and Spain in particular opposed it. So that's,
47:17
Speaker 2: you know, that's what Macron did, you know, like even
47:18
Speaker 2: in the situation right now, today, he still like prevented
47:23
Speaker 2: the EU from coming up with like a more strongly
47:28
Speaker 2: worded communique on immigration and like stronger policies. So yes,
47:32
Speaker 2: this is like both on the economy and on immigration,
47:36
Speaker 2: the center in Europe is not really holding anymore. And yes,
47:43
Speaker 2: it's quite likely that this will change the face of
47:46
Speaker 2: European politics in the next few years. What this will
47:51
Speaker 2: translate into in terms of policy is a different question.
47:55
Speaker 2: Like again, it's the tragedy of populist movements everywhere is
48:01
Speaker 2: that they are pretty good at like... taking advantage of
48:07
Speaker 2: the energy in public opinion the opposition to immigration and
48:11
Speaker 2: dissatisfaction of the economy but once in power i mean
48:15
Speaker 2: you know they tend to be in you know they
48:19
Speaker 2: tend to be like full of people are not very
48:22
Speaker 2: competent and um right and so that you know you
48:25
Speaker 2: need to have Like if you think of France and
48:29
Speaker 2: the natural rally, like they will need to change if
48:32
Speaker 2: they wanted to be able to do something. And even
48:35
Speaker 2: at the European level, you know, they will have to
48:37
Speaker 2: make alliances and compromise and like and be smart, et cetera. Right.
48:42
Speaker 1: So my only point is, is that France is unlike Italy.
48:46
Speaker 1: Italy's constitution is probably the most backwards in Europe. It
48:50
Speaker 1: was written right after World War Two. And it's it's archaic.
48:54
Speaker 1: It is the reason Italy is a non-functioning country. And
48:59
Speaker 1: Maloney has essentially virtually extremely limited power. France has a
49:03
Speaker 1: very powerful executive branch, and it is the strongest executive
49:07
Speaker 1: branch in all of Europe, or Western Europe, I should say.
49:12
Speaker 1: It's interesting and it's fascinating. I think that is the
49:15
Speaker 1: it is really the beginning of a possible giant shift
49:18
Speaker 1: and it will change a lot of relations, I think, everywhere.
49:22
Speaker 1: So we have to run on the wrap on that.
49:24
Speaker 1: But it was so great hearing all your thoughts on
49:26
Speaker 1: where people go to read your stuff because you're very, very,
49:29
Speaker 1: very smart.
49:30
Speaker 2: At this point, I'm mostly writing on my Substack, which
49:33
Speaker 2: is called Stream of Randomness. You can also find me
49:37
Speaker 2: on Twitter. If you go on Twitter, I'm PHL43. I
49:41
Speaker 2: have a link to my Substack, and you can read
49:43
Speaker 2: my stuff over there. It's the easiest way to find
49:46
Speaker 2: what I write.
49:47
Speaker 1: Check it out. He's so bright, guys. Thank you so
49:49
Speaker 1: much for coming on this podcast. I appreciate it a lot.
49:51
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. It was great.
49:53
Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
49:55
Speaker 1: you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
49:57
Speaker 1: email me Ryan at NumbersGamePodcast.com. That's Ryan at Numbers, plural NumbersGamePodcast.com.
50:02
Speaker 1: Love your questions. This one's from Joel. Joel said, I
50:05
Speaker 1: went ahead and voted this morning. I love how Ohio
50:07
Speaker 1: does early in-person voting. I was shocked that my polling
50:10
Speaker 1: place in Butler County, Ohio, was very busy for a
50:12
Speaker 1: Thursday morning. I think that's a good sign for Republicans
50:15
Speaker 1: are taking this election seriously. So something... I would like
50:19
Speaker 1: to share with everyone is that we have a judge
50:21
Speaker 1: running unopposed, except for a writing candidate. I figured I'd
50:25
Speaker 1: go ahead and vote for him. But I learned from
50:27
Speaker 1: a person who was handing out sample ballots that the
50:30
Speaker 1: judge had gotten nominated for the federal bench and voting
50:32
Speaker 1: for him was a waste of time. Unfortunately, he dropped
50:36
Speaker 1: out too late to be removed, but there is an
50:38
Speaker 1: endorsed replacement. When I did my research, I missed that.
50:41
Speaker 1: So would you make people aware to check for writing
50:44
Speaker 1: candidates on the ballot? There you go. I've never actually
50:47
Speaker 1: heard of this case. I mean, I've heard of, I guess,
50:49
Speaker 1: samples of cases where you couldn't get the candidate off
50:52
Speaker 1: the ballot. It's very interesting. When Lisa Murkowski did her
50:55
Speaker 1: writing campaign for re-election for Senate, this is 2010 or 2014,
51:02
Speaker 1: she had a very effective campaign where she was handing
51:04
Speaker 1: out stamps of her name on before the ballot. So
51:09
Speaker 1: people were going and stamping her name because Murkowski is
51:12
Speaker 1: very hard to spell. Yeah, I believe that was her campaign.
51:16
Speaker 1: It was doing the stamps. I've seen campaigns do stamps
51:18
Speaker 1: before where they hand out stamps beforehand so people would
51:20
Speaker 1: just stamp the name. There's no confusion how to do
51:23
Speaker 1: the write-in. Write-in candidates do occasionally win. It does happen
51:27
Speaker 1: here and there. So that's really a failure on the
51:30
Speaker 1: part of the GOP. But if he's running unopposed, I mean,
51:32
Speaker 1: there's a good chance the write-in candidate is going to win.
51:35
Speaker 1: And if he wins re-election, this guy, then it will
51:38
Speaker 1: be he'll have to have a special election or an appointment,
51:41
Speaker 1: whoever appoints him. I'm not exactly sure that judge race,
51:44
Speaker 1: but that is very interesting. OK, next question comes up
51:46
Speaker 1: from Jose. Jose writes first, do you have any sort
51:49
Speaker 1: of ranking for best pollsters? There are so many different pollsters.
51:52
Speaker 1: I don't know who to trust and who not to trust.
51:54
Speaker 1: For example, on RealClearPolitics, the average for Senate race can
51:57
Speaker 1: be closely tied, but then randomly a Marist poll will
52:00
Speaker 1: come out where it's double digits and I don't trust it.
52:03
Speaker 1: Or the Charlie Kirk show will have on Rich Barris,
52:05
Speaker 1: from Big Data Poll, and I'm not sure if I
52:07
Speaker 1: should trust him since he might skew too far right.
52:10
Speaker 1: It'd be cool if you had a tier for S
52:12
Speaker 1: tier ranking and F tier. Just an idea. Second question,
52:16
Speaker 1: does Steve Hilton have a chance in California? I may
52:19
Speaker 1: be inexperienced since I'm 24 and from California, so only
52:23
Speaker 1: my memory of California gubernatorial elections is Gavin Newsom, but
52:26
Speaker 1: it feels like Steve Hilton could have a chance. Even
52:29
Speaker 1: Mark Halperin had him on. I complimented his campaign. Okay.
52:34
Speaker 1: So first on the polling, pollsters have a track record, right?
52:40
Speaker 1: That's all you can kind of really go on. I
52:42
Speaker 1: put a lot of emphasis on more recent elections. Other
52:46
Speaker 1: people put emphasis on past elections. But, you know, polling
52:52
Speaker 1: is more of an art than it is a science.
52:54
Speaker 1: It's just the truth. There's no perfect pollster. I don't
52:58
Speaker 1: particularly like Richard Barris polls. I that's my own personal opinion.
53:03
Speaker 1: If you like him, you're free to like him. The
53:06
Speaker 1: Marist polls are a disaster this year. They're even now
53:09
Speaker 1: changing the way that they weight them at the end.
53:12
Speaker 1: The most recent Ohio poll, they've changed the weight and
53:16
Speaker 1: it's actually showing some momentum for Republicans in Ohio. I
53:19
Speaker 1: think Houston was only down by four and he used
53:21
Speaker 1: to be down by six or seven. So they're changing
53:24
Speaker 1: the weights because they know they're having a real issue.
53:26
Speaker 1: They're not, I think, weighing past voting or party registration,
53:30
Speaker 1: something like that, where they're having issues. So I would
53:32
Speaker 1: not I wouldn't put too much emphasis in it. What
53:35
Speaker 1: you want to look for polls especially is averages and
53:39
Speaker 1: momentum over time. If you're seeing a Republican really pull
53:42
Speaker 1: up with a lot or a Democrat pull up with
53:45
Speaker 1: a lot, it's tightening or they're accelerating at the very end.
53:47
Speaker 1: It shows a momentum going into Election Day, which is
53:50
Speaker 1: really good. A lot of times momentum wins the elections. Um,
53:57
Speaker 1: Nate Silver did a really good job weighing, looking at
54:02
Speaker 1: all the polls since 1998. And he found that the
54:05
Speaker 1: most accurate pollsters was the Washington Post, Research and Polling, Inc.,
54:09
Speaker 1: which I don't know who they are. They probably do,
54:10
Speaker 1: but they probably published through a different outlet. On Message, Inc.,
54:14
Speaker 1: TIPP Insights, which I don't love them, so I'm surprised
54:17
Speaker 1: to give them such a high ranking. Signal, they come
54:20
Speaker 1: on our podcast quite a bit. the New York Times,
54:22
Speaker 1: CNN University. I love that pollster, Atlas Intel, very good pollster,
54:25
Speaker 1: and Emerson College, that they are the best. Emerson used
54:28
Speaker 1: to be a joke, by the way, and they've actually
54:30
Speaker 1: stepped up their game quite substantially. So those were the
54:33
Speaker 1: ranked as the best. The Washington Post, Research and Polling, Inc.,
54:36
Speaker 1: On Message, Inc., TIPP Insights, Signal, the New York Times, CNN,
54:41
Speaker 1: Atlas Intel, and Emerson College. Those are the ones that
54:43
Speaker 1: you could say, okay, that's a really, those are more
54:46
Speaker 1: useful results. I will give you one other thing. If
54:50
Speaker 1: it's a university poll, except for Siena, I don't trust it.
54:54
Speaker 1: Most university pollsters are a disaster. I see that in
54:59
Speaker 1: Florida a lot. Pennsylvania has horrific university pollsters. Virginia has
55:03
Speaker 1: horrible university pollsters where they're just so wrong, like they're
55:07
Speaker 1: wrong every single time. So I would really emphasize not
55:10
Speaker 1: trusting them. As far as Steve Hilton goes, the chances
55:14
Speaker 1: in California are I don't think he has a very
55:18
Speaker 1: good chance. But why it's important as a Republican to
55:21
Speaker 1: vote in California is that the constitutional amendments do. And
55:24
Speaker 1: the constitutional amendment to have voter ID is super, super,
55:28
Speaker 1: super important. If you if that is the reason to
55:31
Speaker 1: go and vote, if that is the motivating thing, make
55:33
Speaker 1: sure you go vote, vote for that and then vote
55:37
Speaker 1: for Republicans when you have elsewhere elsewhere. It's also important
55:41
Speaker 1: to try to win back as many seats in the
55:43
Speaker 1: state legislature as possible. I know that Congress is all
55:45
Speaker 1: gerrymandered now, but the state legislature is super important. The
55:49
Speaker 1: constitutional amendments are super important. I think Steve Hilton has
55:52
Speaker 1: done a decent job, and he's running against a horrific Democrat,
55:56
Speaker 1: Xavier Beccara. But it's just a wave here, and it's California.
56:01
Speaker 1: It's really, really difficult to break out in California. You would,
56:04
Speaker 1: honest to God, need a celebrity like an Arnold Schwarzenegger, again,
56:07
Speaker 1: I think, to win that governor's mansion. Okay, last question
56:11
Speaker 1: from the podcast. It says, Ryan, I started listening to
56:13
Speaker 1: your podcast after hearing you as a contributor for a
56:15
Speaker 1: few other radio shows and podcasts I listen to. You've
56:18
Speaker 1: really improved over time, so kudos to you. Thank you
56:22
Speaker 1: for that. Here's my question. In the 90s, law enforcement
56:26
Speaker 1: began using DNA as a tool that ended the age
56:29
Speaker 1: of the serial killers. It actually did not, by the way.
56:31
Speaker 1: We still have a serial killer. It's less common, but
56:34
Speaker 1: a lot of them, like the serial killer, were serial
56:36
Speaker 1: killer in american history was at nursing homes he was
56:39
Speaker 1: killing old people in nursing homes he was like a
56:41
Speaker 1: nigerian immigrant um and we had another killer from alaska
56:44
Speaker 1: from alaska it is less common but i understand what
56:47
Speaker 1: you're saying dna does solve a lot of murders when
56:50
Speaker 1: elon and his army of nerds introduce ai to the
56:53
Speaker 1: government agencies as a tool to root out fraud do
56:56
Speaker 1: you think this will bring out the end of government
56:58
Speaker 1: fraud and lead to convictions of past perpetrators this is
57:01
Speaker 1: from steve So the government actually does a fairly good
57:06
Speaker 1: job at identifying fraud after it's happened. A lot of
57:10
Speaker 1: attorney generals in the country get hundreds of millions, if
57:13
Speaker 1: not billions, back from their state from fraudsters. They're actually
57:17
Speaker 1: pretty good at it. Some don't prosecute the crimes, like
57:21
Speaker 1: Letitia James from New York just doesn't prosecute tons of crimes.
57:26
Speaker 1: And that's why, since she's become attorney general, the number
57:28
Speaker 1: of money we receive back from fraudsters has fallen off
57:31
Speaker 1: of a cliff. But Other AGs do do it. It's
57:35
Speaker 1: a matter of prosecution. It's not a matter of finding
57:37
Speaker 1: the fraud. The problem is not after the fraud is committed.
57:42
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of that money you'll never get back.
57:44
Speaker 1: The problem is stopping future fraud. And what you need
57:47
Speaker 1: to stop future fraud is better legislation to stop the abuse,
57:50
Speaker 1: not really the AI. I don't really give Doge much
57:55
Speaker 1: to any credit about most things. I think there was
57:59
Speaker 1: a lot of nefarious things happening with Doge that I
58:01
Speaker 1: don't really trust. But that's my own opinion. from people
58:04
Speaker 1: and things that I've heard. Anyway, if you like this podcast,
58:07
Speaker 1: please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
58:10
Speaker 1: and on YouTube, wherever you get this podcast. I will
58:12
Speaker 1: see you guys on Friday.