Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Inside Line Ep3 2026 | F1 Chaos, New Indy Track & Betting Impacts

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Inside Line Ep3 2026 | F1 Chaos, New Indy Track & Betting Impacts · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: Welcome to the Apex Insider Inside Line Show. I got Ryan here, my man. We have had, what, a couple week hiatus from our conversation and lots to talk about, lots to dive into between F1, IndyCar, NASCAR. It's been full force, just rubber on the road. So it's been fun, man. How are you doing? Ryne: Good, I mean, it's been a great couple of weeks. It's nice to see NASCAR off the drafting tracks and finally getting to some ovals, which are my favorite. I think a lot of people share that same sentiment. And then it's been a real treat having Indie for three weeks in a row based on the schedule usually is not like this. So it's been been real nice and watching them rip it up on Phoenix was a ton of fun. I love that. @f1capper: Yeah, no, I didn't get to really catch all the race of Phoenix. I did go back and rewatch the second half. I only got to see the first half, but Phoenix is a track that's just unique. It's short, short oval. It's got just some, wasn't sure how it was good because I've really only truly experienced it with NASCAR. Like I didn't really watch IndyCar at Phoenix before in 2018, 2017 or whatever. So seeing the difference in how they were actually doing things, their turns, it was electric though. ⁓ But yeah, I think a lot of the guys in our discord really hit really well on a lot of, New Garden Top Three was a big, big hit for a lot of people, of course, you he won, so some people went after him on that. And I know that's always been a topic of conversation is like, where is Pinsky going to be that specific weekend? Obviously in Oval's we... trusted a little bit more. So, ⁓ but yeah, let's let's talk about let's focus on IndyCar three weeks, man. Yeah, they the ratings have been coming out. Obviously, Arlington GP, it was inaugural race for them. It was we weren't sure how this was going to be. I know a lot of people anytime anything is tied to Jerry Jones, it's always like, ⁓ here we go. And I'm like, well, he may not know how to run his cowboys, but he does know how to help promote. He knows how to build a promotion. That is for sure. So I did attend. I attended for the three days. And just, you know, from my experience being there Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So Friday definitely was more light touch with individuals walking around. It's still kind of a work day for people. It's kind of far. It's Ryne: He can market an event, that's for sure. @f1capper: And I thought that was perfect opportunity for me to go out there and whether it was cooperating up until I know that we had this the high winds, which, by the way, was a huge, huge deal. I underestimated how much that wind was going to be a factor. And it was crazy wind. As soon as the race ended, it was it was wild. Like we were getting 60 mile gust winds for like three hours or four hours even. ⁓ But my experience, let's talk about that for a second. Number one, I thought it was fantastic. I thought they did a really good job of just setting up like the different fan zones, the merchandise. I actually got myself a Arlington GP shirt. They had these hats, these Arlington GP hats. Like normally I'm not the type to get those types of hats. Maybe it's a team hat or something, but they had some pretty nice looking. Ryne: Look at that. @f1capper: Arlington GP hats. I found out later that they were limited edition ones that they only had a thousand for and I was like, you got to be kidding me. So I'm sitting there like, well, what do I get? So I was like, well, let me just get the true brand Indy car hat, which I like the true brand stuff. And I was, you know what? It was $40. Like I know for a hat that sounds expensive, considering true brand is actually a way more expensive hat. So that was, it was pretty reasonable for that. And not only that, Kato had his own just set up and I was able to get one of these that was actually signed by him and $30 that's it for this $30 I know I Ryne: ⁓ look at sign by Pat. What a steal. I always love the pictures that go viral at the track, especially like F1. It's like a $97 hat. @f1capper: Well, yeah, like when I went to the inaugural race in Miami, I wanted that Miami colored Mercedes hat and I get there and I'm like, I know it's going to be super expensive. So let me just go see. It was one hundred and twenty dollars. I didn't just went online and I found it for half the price, even though I didn't want to pay that much. But I was like, when in Rome, I'm going to do it. I bought it as soon as I got home. I got it and it was sixty dollars. I still have it. I like to collect hats apparently, that's my new thing. But overall, I did get paddock passes, I was able to walk around, it was pretty awesome. I think I sent you a few pictures, I'm just like, well, there's, know, freaking Joseph Newgarden on his scooter just whizzing right by me. I think just in general, they got a picture with Hinch. I was just like, you know, I'm not the type to do that. And I was like, it's my birthday. Can I get a picture with you? And he's like, yeah, sure. So I got a picture with him. But it was pretty cool. You're getting up close. You're getting up there. It reminded me of IMSA. When you go to an IMSA event, you don't have to pay for a paddock entrance. They just give you that access. And you're just there. You can see the cars. can hear them. Kirkwood is walking right by me. It's pretty incredible. And just in overall, the feel of it. The way I put it is like it felt like an f1 light like there were fans. I was surprised on Sunday It was obviously really packed. I looked around Everything everything was full just the stands were full People were having fun lots of pato fans for sure obviously being in Texas It's gonna be you're gonna more likely see that because they're also wearing Red Bull gear for checko and so Ryne: you @f1capper: But just overall, I thought the fan experience was great. People were into it. It was lively. The setup too, I didn't really hang out in the backside where the baseball field was, but in between, it's called Texas Live. It is like a big hotel, humongous bar. And the vibes were just great. People were just having a great time. And I think it was just a total success in how they put it together. just really didn't, it didn't really feel like an indie race. It felt like this was like a big sorta F1 event, but just way smaller scale. So ⁓ very, very cool. And then I saw the ratings. It got 1.3, what, million viewers watching that. which is like three weeks in a row. I think they've been at one million viewers. So one shows, don't do three week break and two, maybe don't do a private track like thermal club and you might attract users, so people to come and watch your product. So, and then Fox says, I got to give them credit. You I wasn't sure how I was going to do, how I was going to go for them. They did a pretty good job. They, you know, they kept marketing this thing. I mean, people, Across town just overall over the months were asking me. What is this Arlington GP thing? I'm hearing about is this f1 like they don't know racing and I'm like ecstatic to explain that to them and they were like, oh, that's cool I should let's try to check that out. So Yeah, this is pretty neat Ryne: I mean, you couldn't watch any Fox without getting an Indy car commercial on almost every single break. It was, it was, it was awesome. I was, I'm just like, ⁓ look more Indy car or more NASCAR. They're, marketing Fox seems to has really stepped it up in terms of actually giving them commercial spots. So that's really good to see. And then as someone like I watched on TV, saw a lot of the pictures on Twitter. It looked like a really good setup. The racing was fun. The driver seemed to enjoy it. I remember after the first practice session, they interviewed McLaughlin and he was just like, this is the most fun I've ever had on a street course. He was like, I love it. He's like instantly my favorite one. I was like, all right. @f1capper: Yeah, it was... And strategically, it's, you know, I know there's going to be tons of critics, you know, again, the whole like, ⁓ it's Cowboys, Jared, who cares? Like at the end of the day, you need to market a product and there's one guy that can do it well. And they did a really good job just from all over. And, know, at first I was like, ⁓ they're doing it in Arlington. But Arlington has become that like hub, that sports hub for us, that place you go and, know, obviously the Rangers and Cowboys are there and they, it's just, The accommodations that they can set up for that type of event is so perfect. Like people from anywhere in the Dallas-Fort Worth area can get there. And you got hotels, you got restaurants. And just hearing from the local news, they said it was a big boom across Arlington in terms of all that. Like hotels were booked, restaurants were full. Like that was a pretty big deal for that city, even though they probably don't need it as much because they always... have events now at this point, but yeah, mean, it just, just overall from a fan experience to the city, to just getting that marketing of the product, it really worked well. So I haven't seen the race yet. I did record this thing so I can go back and rewatch it because I'd like to see it from like, what does it look like on TV? So I'm interested to see how it actually turned out. But the one biggest surprise to me was just in the race in general. We didn't really see the full safety car until the end. Like every, I was shocked. I was like, whoa, like no one messed up. No one did anything wrong. Ryne: It raced so, it was, I mean, that was another, it was so great to watch. Like I love when racing runs clean. ⁓ It's, and the best car won, best car, like Kirkwood had the best car that day. And as someone holding a Kirkwood ticket when that safety, when the yellow finally did come out, I was like, ⁓ I was like, not this. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that was funny was you actually get to know that's what I love about that is you don't like it's fun when you have a safety car because it shakes it up strategies things change right. But obviously from a betting standpoint it does mess up some things if you're not in a good if you're in a like a sweet spot for that. But this race we got to see the pure raw pace of these teams and cars drivers. So you talked about Kirkwood like he There was that one point I really was like, man, I should get on Cal-She and probably get the odds because I see I was I had the live board always on my phone and I'm just like, damn, like, I don't know if Paloo Paloo is going to hold this off. He's just he's gaining on him like pretty quick. So but you got to see Andretti and like they do just have that raw pace as a street course. We know that they just have this type of damper setup, the suspension setup for a street course and I'm interested to go back, I'd love to go back and see ⁓ some data on this. I'm trying to see where I can find lap by lap per driver and actually see the pace of these cars on primaries and alternates because this was the race where you can obtain that and then you will be able to see it for Long Beach and everything else. Ryne: Kirkwood was on another planet on the primaries. It looked like a cheat code. It was unreal. even more impressive, not only Kirkwood, but every single Andretti pit stop was a disaster. And they still were fine. Like every time they went into the pits, they lost time. Like Kirkwood especially. It was horrible. And then they all made it back up on the track. Because there was not a ton of passing. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Ryne: I mean, it's not like there was no passing, the Andretti's were the ones that made the passing with the easiest. It was extremely impressive all around from that team. @f1capper: sure for sure you know who was disappointing? Penske. Penske did not look all that great. I mean Scott McLaughlin, I he obviously messed up in qualifying and he got up to I don't remember p12 or something like that I can't I don't remember at this point. Ryne: Yeah. Your reason he was never going to make up what he needed to, unless he was able to flip it on a yellow somehow, which obviously never came. But that was tough. He, I mean, he was consistently the fastest or one of the fastest in all the sessions. Like if he would have qualified up, you could probably go to pencil limb in the top six for sure. It would have been interesting to see if he would have had the pace to keep up with the end readies. Probably. ⁓ I still think probably doesn't win, but @f1capper: No. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Ryne: would have expected him to contend for the podium. that was kind of a bummer, especially because he loved that track so much. yeah, there was not much else from the Penske team to write. They used it all on Phoenix. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, no for sure. Hauger looked pretty solid and Shrevecourt said he's never done. So I'm looking forward to some of these guys. yeah, so Arlington GP, looking forward to it. They're doing it next year. And it sounds like they're going to try to sign it on for the next three to five years or something like that. bring it back. think, listen, every single driver said it. People were saying, this is the blueprint. Ryne: Good. @f1capper: I keep hearing the negativity like, they're just saying that because you're no, no, like the numbers don't lie. You had you had a sold out like capacity in that whole whole setup. And I was there. I saw it. And I'm not just being biased or anything because I'm very critical of stuff with IndyCar. They did like it felt like a true racing event that people would want to go back to. It's like if you can't go to an F1 event, which is not too far from us. you know, in Austin, but you have it in your backyard and you get the same exact kind of feel and it's cheaper. It's more, it's just, people that I don't, I know like are casual maybe viewers or don't even care about racing, went like that's enough for them. They all said the same thing. That was really cool. So yeah, I'm looking forward to it. Ryne: Yeah, and I would say to even if the racing wasn't that great on maybe other series, I'd say like kick it off the schedule. But for IndyCar, that marketing promotion is so powerful. It's like, OK, like maybe we could deal with it even if the racing is a top notch. But the racing was great. So like it's a slam dunk. Win, win. Bring it back. Like, let's do it again. @f1capper: You too. Yeah. And they keep saying more ovals, more ovals, sure, okay, you can add more ovals, but you do need a street course, and especially with like in Arlington. And like I said, the street course at Arlington works better than like a regular road course because it's not out in the sticks to get there. It's right there in our, this, I mean, not in Dallas, but it's a big city. It's a big Metroplex. And people can take an Uber. Like I called my friend on Saturday and I was like, He was like, why don't you just come over? You live in Arlington. He's like, yeah, okay. And he found a ticket for $40 to get in and just general admission. That's all he wanted. And just Ubered. It took him like 20 minutes, 30 minutes to get there. Ryne: That's awesome. The GA pass to go see a race. You can three exit to buy a hat at an F1 Grand Prix. @f1capper: Yeah, I'm just that's what I'm saying. Like I paid I paid in full transparency I paid $300 for three day pass each ticket and I was like, that's it. Like I actually had to well, I paid an extra for that but I just you know, I shared it with some friends. So I was like I went in Rome. I'm gonna do this. I'm gonna do it right. So between two tickets Ryne: Yeah, and you get paddock access too. @f1capper: and two paddock passes, I'm less than $1,000 on that. And I wanted like pretty decent seats. So I sat in the grandstand right there in the pit at turn one. So that's where I wanted to be. I said I wanted to see them go through turn one. know, concessions were, yeah, it's just like typical concessions. know, beer's probably gonna cost you like $12, you know. Food was probably about like $6, but they had some pretty good stuff too. They had some good pizzas from a local place. They had local vendors and stuff, did a good job. They gotta do that. They gotta try to keep doing that if they're gonna find other races. So I'm interested to see how Washington comes out. I know the track is set up is not the same layout, but let's see how. Viewership, people attending, things like that. Again, it's in a big metropolitan area, makes it easier for people to get there. And that's what they need is if they want viewership there and they, you're in Washington, you'll get viewers on TV too. So that's what you wanna see. But yeah. Ryne: Yeah. And I think another huge win to like, to go back to Phoenix, the split event with NAS, I love that. Like, I want more of those. saw they interviewed Larson and he was like, this is a great idea. I'd even like to in the future, like we'll go somewhere where Indies, the main event and we're like their, you know, lead up series. Like I love that. Like that was so much and Phoenix was great for it. So I sign me up in the future for more weekends like that, regardless of where it is. @f1capper: It would be funny if they actually did that where was like, I mean throw in O'Reilly series, be like, know, the trucks or something if you don't want to do the cup, if you don't want that to dominate or something. Ryne: Yeah, because they've done, I guess back when it was in Xfinity, they do that joint weekend in Portland. But yeah, the crossover, think, is great. Gets people exposed to it. Like, I think I saw a lot of people on NASCAR Twitter. They're like, ⁓ wow, these cars are fun. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, no, I, I thought that, you know, was fantastic. I'm assuming they're going to keep going back to Phoenix, but great racing. mean, we saw Rasmussen just going nuts too. Ryne: That is, yeah, and that makes it nice for betting too, because it's like, okay, I'll have some on New Garden and some on Rasmussen, but the issue is ⁓ all the great Rasmussen numbers I've been collecting are now no longer gonna be there. And I had to watch them all go up in flames too. I was like, you've gotta be. @f1capper: Yeah. You know what man? So like at the beginning of the week, I think it was like it opened up 40 to one or something like that. 10 minutes, right? yeah, exactly. And I was like, do I do it? Do I do it? And I couldn't get to that access and then it kept dropping and it got to the point where I'm like, I'm not doing it. It's steamed. I don't want to do it because Ryne: Yeah, that was like 10 minutes. But then they put it down to like 20s. I was like, 20 is still good. @f1capper: there's a part of me that still doesn't trust Rasmussen. If I was gonna do something, I wanna top three. And what do you know? I didn't see it, but there was an incident with willpower. So, ⁓ man, the guy, just, I mean, you keep thinking he's gonna get over that hump, but you know what? We're probably gonna still go back to him. He's not gonna be 40 to one for the next oval, by the way. No way. He's gonna be 12 to one. Yeah, he's 12 to one minimum. Yeah. Ryne: No, he should be like a listed among the favorites because I mean he was better than New Garden He was definitely better than New Garden I grabbed I don't know if it's gonna work. I don't know if you remember in the first show I did say Rasmussen to win Indy 500. I know that's a completely different oval, but @f1capper: 12 to 1 minute. Yeah. Well. That is a great number and the funny thing is Nathan Rogers, I think he was first to see these Indy 500 lines because they always post them first it seems like. And I think he saw it in like December and he got some ridiculous number on Rasmussen and he's obviously, he's on something like that where it's like a long shot for him to win but you know, I'm definitely gonna be looking Rasmussen poll maybe, we'll see. I don't know, maybe more towards the race. He seems like more of the race kind of conqueror than he is qual. Ryne: Yeah, he doesn't qualify super well. But again, like, I think everyone's onto it. It's not like a secret anymore. It's like he's going to qualify, you know, 18th and he's just going to pass everybody and then go to the back again somehow and pass everybody again, be faster than everyone on every single run and then probably crash into someone at some point. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Hmm. For sure, for sure. Well, I know we have Barbara coming up next week. We have a week off from F1 and in IndyCar. So ⁓ we are gonna do a pod. ⁓ I think we're gonna do a recap pod first. It's gonna be me and Nathan Rogers and then we'll do our betting preview for next week. But something I will be eyeing for next week, I do have this sense, this Spidey sense. Hauger is gonna do really well in that Dale coin. So I think that he's... I don't know. What do you think? Ryne: I like how hoggers your guy and, ⁓ your nemesis is his teammate. It's like you're backing one fading the other, like get those teammate matchups. @f1capper: Yes, yeah. Well, well, I mean, I don't know if next week I want to fade if I want to fade Grosjean to be honest with you because you know, this track has more of the European feel as they would all say is and that's why I think like maybe him coming into this type of track there's runoff there's it's it's gonna be hard to pass so he can really take advantage of just his pure racing in Focus on that. Like Foster was doing fine last year for a little while before he started fading. ⁓ You know, I'm just trying to think of like where my opportunity is and I really do feel like I want to try to take on something with Hauger because he's now had three races underneath him, you two, one street course and a short oval. I'm sorry, two street courses and an oval. So now we're at a traditional track. It's going to be a little bit more forgiving for him, there's not barriers that he has to worry about. So now he has runoff, has all these, so he can really push the limits on this car and feel a little bit more comfortable about his drive. So gonna be interested to see about that. yeah, so I'm curious to see what his odds will be, especially the top three. ⁓ Very quickly though, let's list the future's odds for Indy. So Kirkwood is, I'm looking at Kal-She by the way. I don't know if this is accurate from what I'm seeing right now, but it says he's about 49 % and then Alex Paloe is at 55%. So probably like plus 500 at this point for Kirkwood when he was, I think he was about double that. I think nine to one when I last saw last week, which was funny because I was like. Maybe, because it's Kal-She, maybe I take on Kirkwood now. If he wins, those odds will drop and I've increased some profit and I can just sell these shares. And I didn't do it and I'm really kicking myself for not doing it because it's indirectly basically betting Kirkwood to win, right? That's kind of the way I was supposed to do it. I made a mistake, I should have done that. I should have done that. But Kirk, yeah, but Palo. Ryne: Yeah. I have some pillow. I will try to figure out when to add more. What I did do is when pillow got taken out in Phoenix, ⁓ I bet new garden 19 to one figure on Kalyshev, figuring that new garden would probably finish the Phoenix race very well. And pillows getting no points, which went perfectly. But now I will probably try to find a way to get off of that at hopefully profit. @f1capper: That's the play. Yeah. Ryne: I'm not sure what I'm gonna do with it yet, but I don't really wanna write it out for a couple reasons. ⁓ First of all, Penske is not great. Right, and the thing is the main handicap of pro-Penske is that New Garden's just gonna dominate ovals. ⁓ There's a new guy on the block. We already talked about him. New Garden's no longer a shoe-in to win all of these races. @f1capper: No. Next two tracks are not gonna be good to them. Ryne: now has like a new competition and all his other penskies are still strong. So you're splitting up some points. Palo obviously is good on ovals. He just, you he's not going to get taken out every week like he did in Phoenix. So I, I, the, the numbers aged very well, but I am going to try to figure out a way to get off of it. @f1capper: Yeah, no, think seeing how the next two races, ⁓ I don't know, I would be out of it. I probably would have gone, same thing, like the way I was looking at Kirkwood was I should have got on it. actually, the reason why I also wanted to do Kirkwood was he's got Long Beach coming up, so he's probably gonna do well there. So I was like, Ryne: Yeah, maybe sooner rather than later. @f1capper: It's barber first and I'm not sure where I'm gonna where andretti is gonna fit in that in that situation I don't think they will do as strong ⁓ So that's why I should like at this point I could have made some profit and then maybe get back into it, know again next week until long beach and then long beach maybe he wins again and then boom I can Take it, you know, take it again right before long beach. So it's an opportunity as as you know, anyone that's listening to this Cal she is the opportunity where you don't have to hang on to these futures for a long time. You're buying and trading like a stock basically. It's like, I begin 10 to one, nine to one was Kirkwood's odds before the race. And now he's dropped down to five to one. So. Ryne: I got my Kirkwood fill because a book decided to open him up at 10 to 1 for Arlington Inexplicably that that was gone pretty quickly @f1capper: I was looking everywhere and then, you know what pisses me off is I was like, man, should I just do it at five to one? I know in my head, but I really wanted the top three odds and I just, between F1, two, I was like trying to juggle both. So I was more focused on F1 and I'm sure I could have probably had that top three option. just was super focused. I was so busy last week. So by the time... it got to it. I was, I've been kicking myself pretty much. I was like, I should have just done it. I should have, and same like Phoenix. I think it was, Joseph Newgarden was a minus 145, 160 for top three. And I was like, you know what? I should do that. I hate chalking to this, but I should do it. I know he should be a top three contender. And I'm mad because I didn't do it. So I didn't do it and here we are. So I know the reads are there. It's just, I just didn't do it. So it is what it is. We move on. all right. So that was a lot of Indy car, super pumped. I'm glad to get that out of my system. I've been holding that in for some time, man. I've been wanting to chat and I know we were texting like, can't wait to talk about this. it's been a while since we talked some Indy. So it's good to see like there's enthusiasm behind it, but. ⁓ Ryne: Ha @f1capper: We're going to save the best for last and you know what the best is. But let's move to NASCAR really quick because I know we've had what three races in there. So let's let's quickly talk about that Phoenix, which you did talk about how like awesome, you know, collaboration between IndyCar and NASCAR that same weekend. ⁓ We had the 750, 100 horsepower at Phoenix and Bell and Blaney. They just did it. They just did it. Ryne: Yeah, that was. I mean, there's a pretty simple betting race. was just collect Bell and Blaney wherever you can, however you can. They were by far the two best cars. I liked the race while maybe more yellows than I would have wanted. Still played out to those two cars. It came down to them as it should. And you can trap behind anything. Bell's last pit stop was maybe not the best call in the world. Bell was probably the best car followed by Blaney, but it was pretty clear from the early on if nothing happened to them, it was down to those two. So it was fun to watch them battle. They're both obviously great at Phoenix. And I thought the race was really enjoyable and just to have that weekend, Indy Saturday and then Cup Sunday, that was just a treat. ⁓ And then getting to Vegas, finally a traditional one and a half. Like that's, I think, the best racing with this package. I think a lot of people didn't love the Vegas race. I thought it was great. All the best cars show that they were the best cars. We barely had any yellows and yeah, like there was passing. I thought it was fun. I thought it was a great race. How a NASCAR race on one and a half should be. But I guess some people disagree. @f1capper: No, didn't. I got home from the race and I passed out. I was just tired from the weekend. I was staying up until like 3 30 also for the China GP and then getting up at like six, seven just to go to the race. So by the time I got home, I was like, finally I can sit down and relax. I didn't have any NASCAR bets this weekend just because it was just not in tune. Even though I do think Vegas is fun. But yeah, man, I was watching and I was like, oh man, those Toyotas look strong, but then you see like Hendrix just coming in and then I woke up and all of a sudden I see Hamlin won. I was like, are you kidding me? He won this race? What happened? Like what? So. Ryne: Yeah. And it's one of those like now we're finally starting to see what these teams have because you can. mean, I know Redick won three in a row to start the year. Like I pretty much just throw out Daytona and Atlanta. I know a lot of people love Atlanta. It makes for entertaining racing. I don't care about that track as much. I'll just throw it on and I'll watch it for entertainment purposes. ⁓ Like for me, Vegas is a million times more fun to watch than Atlanta, which would probably a hot take. But yeah, Hendrix, JGR. not shocking. think they were seven of the top eight finishers. And the only reason it's probably not all eight is like Bowman has vertigo. So all guy was in his car like that. It's. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, no, they, and we know that that's gonna be the recipe for the next track that's similar to them, to Vegas too, so, which now we're going to something completely different. We're going to Darlington and I can't stop thinking about those comments from Brisco and Hamlin, like they're talking, it's funny because they talked about it, like they like it, but they, Ryne: Yeah, I'm a redic, yeah. @f1capper: It's see they're kind of like smiling like wow, this is gonna be different, know lack of the diffuser It's gonna be wild even for me and we know briscoe was really strong here. Now. He's just like I don't know what I'm gonna I don't know how be I'm like, ⁓ great So from a betting perspective, I'm worried I don't know because I used to love I loved short tracks because you can you can it's better from I felt felt like from a betting perspective, so ⁓ I don't know what to think of this weekend. I think from an entertainment perspective, it's gonna be great, but betting. Ryne: I do think again, it will be cream rises to the top. You might see some weird, even with the tire fall off, like, like who's going to be best equipped to deal with strategy. Like the teams who are the best at doing it all the time and the drivers who can manage fall off are going to still be good at managing fall off. Like maybe look at RFK getting into the mix this week. Keselowski is good at that. ⁓ Prese and Buscher, no slouches. They should be strong. They were both actually all of RFK was strong in Vegas too. ⁓ but yeah, all the Toyotas I'm sure it will be great. Like Reddick should be good. @f1capper: ⁓ man. Yeah. Ryne: Yeah, I'm just I'm really pumped to see how it plays out. There's a lot of a lot of players up top that are going to be factors @f1capper: So what about Gibbs? Is he back? Do we trust him? Ryne: ⁓ I don't think he can be back because he was never there. So it's like, he like, is he now? Yeah. Is he not? Has he arrived? Yes. It seems like it. He has shown speed because it's one of those things where it's like every Saturday you can just pencil in the tweet. It's like Ty Gibbs fastest in group A every single time. He's just always fast in practice, qualify somewhat well. And then in the race, it's like, okay, what happened? He fell back. @f1capper: ⁓ I mean, I guess guess I guess or is he has he showed up? guess yes, like It's crazy. Ryne: I am this will be a very good test to see how he manages potentially a very tough race to run with this fall off. I don't know if we've seen that this is going to be his forte, but I wouldn't doubt him. I think he should have a strong showing. I have been looking at some of his top 10 numbers and interested by them. ⁓ So I expect him to be in the mix. don't think he'll win, but I expect him to be in the mix and contending and running top 10 most of the day. He seems like he's, he's figured something out. @f1capper: Yeah, ⁓ I mean I I expect jgr just like You know should be good here. I mean like I I don't The toyota's let's just put it like I feel like they should be fine They're very strong right now like they just seem to have a like the car in every type of track at this point like they just That's why it's hard. That's why i'm bringing up gibbs. I'm like well reddick's being nuked to hell when with his odds, so Ryne: the Toyotas. @f1capper: Well, now who do I look at? Like, Hamlin's always going to be the same, right? He's always less than, always. So now you're, what's your opportunity? So, and Bell too, like he's, he's short. Gibbs, Gibbs is like, I'm not saying to win, but like I might actually keep an open mind when it comes to obviously top tens. But what about top, top, top fives, you know, top threes? I don't know about top threes, but I can get, I can get behind like a top, top 10, top five now at this point. And then like, Ryne: He's short everywhere. @f1capper: head to heads. ⁓ But who's a team that's not gonna do well here? Who's a team that we think is not just one or two teams? Ryne: probably everyone that's not Hendrix and JGR. Like Penske doesn't look like they're gonna do well. I don't know. mean, I will say Penske looked a little better than I thought in Vegas. Like they were supposed to, mean, they practiced terribly. ⁓ Blaney actually had some speed, then he got, ⁓ what happened? ⁓ he got trapped on a yellow. @f1capper: You I don't know. I don't know. Ryne: He pitted and then a yellow came out. his race got ruined. He wasn't, he, I don't think he was ever going to win, but he was going to finish top 10 and he was at least up there and running with them. So I don't know. This doesn't seem like a spot where Penske is going to be great. ⁓ your, your boys at track house have been kind of shuffling around for a bit. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's funny. I had a coworker. I didn't realize that she was actually a big NASCAR fan and she was asking me about the Arlington GP and she's like then said, I'm more of a NASCAR person. I was like, really? I was like, you know, I've been, she's like, well, who's your team? Obviously her team was Hendrix. She loves William Byron. So that's her favorite driver. And I just like turned to her and I was like, you really want to know? She's like, I just claimed it. And she's like, who? I was like, track house SVG. I'm here for it. Like Connor's ill itch, you know? Yeah, sure. Watermelon man. Put them in there. You know, like so. So she started laughing. She's like, OK. I was like, yeah, you know, when I really was diving deep into NASCAR at the start of COVID, I was I didn't really have said I like, you know, I want it to naturally fit in. So I just this is this is this feels natural for me. It's a it's a match made in heaven. So. Ryne: you @f1capper: I don't know how he's going to do this weekend. I don't want to SVG because if there's one thing he's very good at, it's controlling the uncontrollable, which is going to be this car. let's kind of want to see how he does in practice. I'm going to be obviously look only looking at head to heads with him because they normally put him with like some of these back market. Maybe it's a priest or maybe it's like. Hopefully like a Kyle Busch too. Like if he gives me if you give me if you if you give me that I will be all over SVG so Ryne: Hopefully Kyle Busch, yeah. I think Priest could be good this weekend. I actually have a little bit of Priest at 65 to 1 to win the thing. I don't think that'll happen, but I have some top 10 that's a little more realistic. @f1capper: Yeah, so. I'm eyeing him for matchups for sure. I'm eyeing him for matchups. What do you think about Buscher? Ryne: I like all the RFK guys this week and they're all qualifying pretty late in the metric, which is great. ⁓ I expect them all to be solid. @f1capper: Okay. Yeah. I'm just so worried because it's like you're going to see it in practice and they're going to be looking good. Maybe they, you know, complaining a little bit in qualifying, whether they do good or bad or something like that. But, ⁓ man, I just like nervous to my skin about like, what do I do? Unit size down just a little bit, just in case. what do I normally I'm just putting a unit on match up. So I'm like, And then normally I'm not like going heavy chalk on head to heads. It's going to be like a minus, you know, maybe max I'll go minus 150 maybe. I just, I'm done doing the minus 165s, minus 160s. I'm more into like, let me find the range of like, obviously plus odds, anywhere between even to minus 130 is like the sweet spot for me. So. Ryne: Darlington, like last year's Darlington was my just my nightmare that still haunts me. I ended I went into it with like early week Larson numbers at solid numbers and then just built up a bunch of blaney and Larson Rex immediately. Blaney gets sent to the back like 13 separate times, which like a book wasn't adjusting his odds. Blaney was the fastest car, one of the fastest cars. I just kept betting Blaney live over and over and over again at numbers that should not have existed. Gets all the way to the front. Late caution caused by who? Kyle Larson 900 laps down and Blaney has a bad pit stop and doesn't win. And I lost the account because they saw me betting those numbers. Didn't get paid out. @f1capper: Yeah. It is like a lose-lose situation ⁓ Ryne: Yeah. And the caution being brought out by the guy I had pre-race numbers on getting back on the track. Yeah. He actually was like 40 or 50. I don't know how many laps it was an outrageous number of laps down and he's involved in the incident that brings out the caution right after Blaney took the lead and no one was catching him. So that was super fun. That was like probably the most frustrating race I've ever been a part of. was just horrifying. So I'm excited to see what happens this year. @f1capper: That's the worst feeling. That's the worst feeling is like your account starts getting limited just because of a loss, but you were because you had good CLV for at one point and that's what the what books do man. They don't care. It's really like like that's why I probably still have bet online not limited, which I'm just praying that never gets limited, which is I think one thing they like to do is they pretty much like to track whoever has the best CLV and normally like Ryne: Yeah. @f1capper: when I'm doing their heads to heads, like I'm waking up and I'm like, ⁓ now they dropped the laundry list. So I'm already missed maybe sometimes those, the CLV. So I'm attacking towards the end, but ⁓ yeah, no, I'm looking forward to it. So I don't know. Ryne: Yeah, it's, yeah, you hit the mistake until you got a cash it. Otherwise it's like my account's gone and I lost the money and you're just like, @f1capper: Yeah. Well, that's why we're trying. We're trying to hit on that cal she man. I'm trying my best, right? Like volume has been kind of increasing a little bit on Indy car. It's definitely got millions, millions of dollars being on NASCAR and F1 NASCAR has pretty good. They put, they put a lot for that and F1 they've been putting a lot, but I'm pushing to have them do more of like what poly markets doing where they're offering like for F1 that is they are offering things like fastest lap and and classified and head to heads and all that stuff, Cal she's still behind. So I've been trying to get with my connect on that and say like, why can't you just do it? Just make it happen. Like we can, I can bring people. Yeah, like I can bring people in here. Like I'm ready to even unload more money just if you get me these markets, like let me put some more in there. So, but speaking of F1, now that we've done the NASCAR stuff. Okay, so. Ryne: Yeah, Cal she's been great. @f1capper: Best for last, my favorite, obviously. ⁓ We've had two races, two completely different tracks, and one sprint as well. So obviously we're gonna have to highlight number one, the opportunity that the reliability issues have been giving us, because it's been fantastic. ⁓ Yeah, like these cars, like it's crazy. Well, number one, I mean, we had Piastri. He just had a dumb moment in his and he was out. Like then you had Hulk who couldn't even start. And then I don't remember if there was someone else that couldn't start as well on that same race, but it didn't come to China. Both McLarens messed up. ⁓ Bordoletto, think, couldn't even or no, he did. He did race. I think that he did race. But yeah, but just overall. Yeah. Ryne: I like the list of guys who didn't start is so long. @f1capper: Like I keep saying to myself, okay, so I got cute and I was like, I should do over 16 and a half because we got a pretty good number in Australia. I did it. And then immediately I was like regretting my decision. I was like, ⁓ my God, why did I do that? You know, and it, and you could have gotten under 17 and a half at like minus one 40 come to China. I'm like, okay, well maybe that doesn't happen again. Like we have three cars, DNF in the before we even start and guess what? both McLarens don't even start. I'm like, you're fucking kidding me again. Ryne: Yeah, it's like I'm up. was a 3 a.m. start and then 1 30. It's like, oh, this guy's pushed behind the wall. was Lando was first. Right. It was a I forgot who was first. Yeah. And then I started jamming, Piazzari matchups against Lando, everyone against Lando before they took it down. We like because they said, oh, he has a problem. He's starting from the pit lane. So it's like, OK, this is awesome. And then it was Piazzari. Yeah. Jam the match was against him. @f1capper: Yeah, Lando was first because they said... Mm-hmm. You gotta get it. Ryne: I had so much money just pending and then obviously all got voided. it's also like, please start the race and like they're not going to. @f1capper: Well, one of my back alleys, because I kept them, so I had two different back alley books that I use. One of them actually paid me out on Piazzaria over Norris. I'm not counting it towards my unit play because my other one voided me. Yeah, I was like, are you kidding me? So now I know something very interesting about my back alley that I can do. And then that's when... ⁓ Ryne: That's nice. @f1capper: The groups, the groups was the biggest winner for me in China because as soon as both of them were announced, they still had groups up even on BetOnline. But then I went to my back alley and was like, ooh, they're giving me a better group number on Gasly because I think it was like nine to one or 10 to one on Gasly. But they were giving me 18 to one for his group, which was Piazzery and Noors. Yeah, for sure. Ryne: to play any group at 18 to one in the way these cars are like. @f1capper: I put $100 on him and then I was like, I'm gonna put on max couple of hundred bucks and guess what? Gastly hit it. I was like ecstatic. I was like, that was amazing because that was the big hit. And you'd be happy about this underdog. I think it was after sprint qualifying, they kept the same numbers up for. what they had for pre-weekend for underdogs. So I was like, ⁓ my God, I'm going in. I'm going in hard on these, some of these guys, because now we got a nice tell and everything. Hit a big, three big cards, three big cards. So it was a massive weekend. turned out because I was not actually having a good time between, literally it's been volatile. Like I've been up and down through practices, things, wild things are happening. I feel like I just. Ryne: That's the best when that happens. @f1capper: catching the wrong drivers reliability, whatever issues and then race comes, that's the way I've been winning now. That won't be something that I need to lean on is like hope that like these reliability issues give me that opportunity. That's just, that should be the sweetener. But I'm just, at least now we're starting to figure out like what is happening with these cars. Like we know advantages. Ferrari on the start is being, is is a big time one. And number two, like this is what I was telling everyone in the Discord, like it's very, very clear right now, Mercedes and Ferrari are the clear top four teams. I think McLaren will have a chance to kind of eat into that at some point, but I think from a race pace perspective too, they are just bar none better than any of the other teams. Obviously Mercedes is too. And I'm going to throw this one at you. I think Lewis Hamilton is actually better than Leclerc at this point when it comes to race pace. I mean, this is the second race in a row. And we had a sprint race where I was like, he's clearly just being able to like manage his tires much better than Leclerc. And I think it's time to start to like thinking about Lewis Hamilton over Leclerc for races at this point. He is. Ryne: Hamilton's back. just, yeah, just like matchups against Max are nice. I think there were books listing the Ferraris against Max where I just hit the Mercedes. Kimi was like minus 300 against Max. I'm like obviously playing like what is going on here? That's wrong. And it's like, think a lot of people don't like, a lot of people don't like laying juice, but sometimes you should. Yeah. @f1capper: Yeah, you just have to. You just have to. And I think you texted me, it's like minus 275. was like, mine is not that much. But I would, it's, you have to take that because if you go down the line, we know Mercedes and Ferrari are right now are clearly now. And again, as weeks go on, and I think the breaks actually gonna help a lot of these teams try to develop their car and whatnot, but it's gonna take some time and we, talking about reliability issues. Well, here you go again, Max had to DNF, right? Because of a reliability issue. They had a reliability issue the last race. They're constantly going through this issue overall. And I talked about this last year about the thing that we were not sure about. We know Max and his driving abilities, but if you don't have a car, what does his abilities matter anyways at this point? Ryne: That card does not start. He, it's unbelievable. @f1capper: No, and this is a second race in a row. It's the second race in a row he's done that. So I'm very interested to see, is he gonna have the same issue in Japan? I'm actually tempted to fade him again. Not like I wasn't fading him. I don't think I really actually fade him, but you gotta look at that. You can't drop back and then try to crawl yourself all the way back through it. Ryne: If he's going to keep getting priced like a podium contender, which he is, or he's getting priced like that, like I'm going to keep fading him. I hopefully both the McLaren's do start the race. Like I would love to take them. Like they're all pretty similar odds. Like, and Max hasn't shown that he's going to qualify third, fourth. Like he keeps qualifying seventh or eighth. That seems to be the pace of that car. And then he is in P13 halfway through the first lap. @f1capper: for sure. Yeah, and the entire day, like I just, it was bad. It was bad in China. Ryne: I guess. I mean, give me like, ghastly overma- give me, ⁓ I guess, bareman numbers are probably gone forever now after how that started. That train's gone, yeah. @f1capper: ⁓ that's done. Yeah. Like I think it's funny because I've been riding that train since last year and I'm like, ⁓ man, there's going to be a point in time where it's like, it's not even worth doing anymore. So we might be there. I don't know. But yeah, like Max, I don't think it's going to continue. I think he's going to get better at this, but there's obviously something there with his starts. Ferrari starts are just immaculate. Like they just know how to do it. Like the playbook here is we know that Ferrari's got a good start, but Lewis Hamilton over Leclerc is probably the play at this point when it comes to longer stints because he just seems to have that. And he did, even though Leclerc beat Hamilton in Australia, there was, it showed in the race pace, he was actually. Hamilton was doing a lot better than Leclerc at keeping pace over if he just was ahead of him or didn't have some of these things happening, he could have, he would have beat Leclerc. So I think that's why when I'm going into China, I was like, I'm, I'm very high on, on Lewis, but for the reasons of he likes it in China, that's why I did his top four at like minus one ⁓ five at probably looking back was like, man, that should have been like a five unit bet, but Ryne: Yeah, that's his podium price now. @f1capper: Yeah, now it's like good luck. And now we go to Japan and ⁓ it's going to be a harder to pass track. I think they will have better passing opportunities with the new freaking mushrooms that they have that they can just eat up and then just blast, which Ryne: God, the whole separate conversation is like, I am I don't love where F1 is at right now. @f1capper: It's it's really I'm in a weird phase with it. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. But then the racing gets on I'm like, but this is so it just feels cheap. It feels like, you know, like, you're just you want a good meal, but then you go to Chili's and you just eat at Chili's and you you feel satisfied at the end of the day, but you still ate Chili's, you know. Ryne: Yeah, right, and then you see the commercial and it looks good on TV. It's like, feel like if I was, yeah, I'm not gonna call myself smart. I wish I was a lot more motorsports dumb. So I could just like watch that be like, oh, look at that, fun. And it's just like, I'm just like, that's... @f1capper: Yeah, just I don't it it's true like it I hate the gimmick of it like I know Indycar has pushed the pass but it's a little bit different with push to pass right like it's It's like got you know, you have an allotted amount throughout, you know the whole race, but this is just like I don't know like it does just take the purity out of it like put I I just don't I'm not not a big fan but the racing product itself has been fun but they knew that like they've got to change something i don't know what i get it the racing looks good but change something i don't know at this point Ryne: And it's also like F1 is sells itself as the pinnacle of motorsports. It has been for a long time. It's like it feels like, you know, they test out kind of like wonky, silly rules and like minor league baseball. And then it's like, OK, let's see how this goes. OK, this was like a clown show, but we're not going to do it. But who cares? It was minor league baseball. To bring this stuff to F1 is like it's what are we doing? Like, stop it. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I don't know man, I'm like I Said let's see how the rest of the season goes, but I just don't think my my mind's gonna change with this which is You you're getting something fun out of it, but it's just still it's a cheap thrill You're not I don't it don't think this is sustainable. I don't I think that you know when it I want something like this where they can have this opportunity to go back and forth, but I don't want it in this manner. I don't like it this way. Ryne: It also just feels a little dirty the way they present it. Like the post about the overtakes and then they muted all the comments talking about the, it's just like, yeah, now you're doing too much. like don't, like. @f1capper: ⁓ the censoring is bad. Ryne: It feels like propaganda to a point. I would love to see the racing improve. I want to be able to sit down and enjoy a race and maybe it's just you got to pretend it's natural, even though it's not. I don't know what the answer is. I would hope we see some changes. ⁓ mean, it's one thing. All the drivers hate it. Like if the drivers are coming out like. @f1capper: We're not going to see it this season. ⁓ Except for like Mercedes, but because they're winning. Yeah, no, but I think that you're not going to see anything until probably until next year, maybe even the year later. But. Ryne: Well, yeah, I mean, if I was a Mercedes fan, I'd probably be like, this is fun. ⁓ no, it's a while. Hopefully this break, which it sucks we're having this break, but hopefully that helps. maybe there's teams are catching up or figuring some things out, but yeah, now we have to go a month without F1, which is sad. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, which is unfortunate also, too, because I think for me, I will be able to catch the Japan race, which is going to be awesome. ⁓ But then for what is the next Miami will be the next race, and I'm actually going to be out of town for that. So it's going to be unfortunate. I'm going to I'm going to still be engaged, it's not as now I have to like playing around like the reliability. So I don't Don't talk to me for the hour leading into like a sprint race or the actual race because I want to be able to see who... Yeah, yeah. I said ⁓ I might take my shot at unders this next race, but I think they're going to be juiced to hell. So I think there's going to be a point in time where the over 16 and a half will be the way to go. These cars are not going to continue to do this every week. Ryne: Who's starting? Will we ever see 22 cars on the grid? Probably not. @f1capper: It's crazy you have two cars DNF the way they did before they even got out there. I don't see that happening this next race. So I think the brakes are gonna help them kind of figure things out, I think. Ryne: You know what team is probably overperforming expectations the most right now? Aston Martin. They're not P21, P22. Look at them go. They're starting races. They run a couple laps and... @f1capper: No. ⁓ And what's funny is also in practice, they've actually looked pretty decent at time compared to the Cadillacs and the guys in the back market. But they were looking, they were just testing. There was a few times I was like, okay. they're all right. You're figuring something out. Small steps. Crawl before you walk. So that's what they're doing. Ryne: ⁓ my god, the Cadillacs are, that's bad. @f1capper: It's a matter of time before they actually start completing an entire race. Who knows when. Ryne: That'll be exciting. What's the overrun? When will a NASA Martin car be classified in a race? @f1capper: I don't know. I just still can't believe they were giving us Alonzo no wins at 4 to 1 and then Aston Martin no wins at like plus 260 or something, whatever it was. Ryne: I hope for your sake that those ⁓ aren't contingent on all of the events running, because that is sometimes a thing. So I hope those don't get voided. @f1capper: Actually, I don't know about this Aston Martin one. I have to go back and check because I had to phone that one in. I was not able to find a four to one anywhere. So I'll have to go find out actually. Yeah, I know. I know there's a lot of guys in our discord that were hammering that and I was like, I was kind of cautioning over the Lewis Hamilton one where it's like plus 170. I was like, I kind of think he's going to do better, especially after I was seeing Ryne: Yeah, I would have loved that number. I wish I would have seen that somewhere. @f1capper: testing because in testing he was looking pretty sharp too. So that's what it's translating. Everything that he's doing is translating right now. let's see what happens. But yeah, we got F1 next week. ⁓ But we talked about a lot, man. We almost did an hour about Indy, NASCAR, F1. Maybe one day we'll do Supercars. No, just kidding. I don't know if you guys actually follow Supercars. it's one. That's racing. If you want racing, watch yourself some. some supercars. ⁓ yeah, any last thoughts before we exit here? Ryne: Nothing I don't think I said already. I've Darlington super excited for that. Indy goes into a little bit of lull in the schedule with, you know, Barbara will be fun and then kind of start ramping up to Indy 500 stuff, which is obviously the best race of the year. And F1, I guess we get Japan and I guess we get to stay up late again and then we don't have to deal with it for a month. So I, okay, that's fine, I guess. @f1capper: long break. Yeah, we'll definitely have a pod where we'll fit in in that, I don't know, month at some point. We'll probably do a couple even. I don't know what we'll talk about, but we'll talk about stuff. we'll probably look at, we'll definitely be talking IndyCar and NASCAR. Ryne: Yeah, I was speaking of other series. I hope people are watching O'Reilly auto parts. That's been some very consistently good racing week in and week out. We got another stacked field going to Darlington, Larsen's Larsen's back in it again. And we have truck night in America on Friday. Thank God that's back. Love me some trucks. Another stacked field. Corey Hyman's back. Couple other Cup guys are running trucks. So let's have some fun. @f1capper: ⁓ yeah. Okay. ⁓ we got some. I can't wait to see that. ⁓ What are his odds? Is he getting? ⁓ God. Ryne: Clear the schedule Friday night after you've already watched 10 straight hours of basketball. No one's dropped, I haven't seen Truxod's dropped yet anywhere, but. @f1capper: That's right, you remind me, I gotta do my bracket, which I have no idea what I'm gonna put, I'm just gonna put some random stuff, I don't know. I'm not winning that stuff. Ryne: No one's, but it's just, the Thursday, Friday of the tournament are the best. Like, four games going on at all times for like 10 straight hours. You can't beat it. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Unfortunately, I'm gonna miss most of the evening one tomorrow and then I'll probably be catching it on Friday for sure. So we'll see what happens, man. All right, well, it's fun. We'll see you probably in a couple weeks when we go on the first, I guess we'll call it the spring break for F1. So. Ryne: Spring break, all right.