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Episode 312 - 7/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 312 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Thirsty Thursday, another day here in the arena, guys.
• 0:40
  And this will be our last part of the week because as you know,
• 0:43
  tomorrow is 4th of July, Independence Day.
• 0:46
  I know you guys are all excited. You probably got your family
• 0:48
  cookouts and whatever kind of fun festivities you got planned
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  lined up for tomorrow. The most important one to me,
• 0:55
  yes, it's slamming hot dogs and burgers and some nice adult
• 0:59
  beverages, grilling, chilling and thrilling as me and my boys
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  used to like used to say. But the top highlight of
• 1:05
  tomorrow, you guys know what it is, It's the Nathan's hot Dog
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  eating contest. So that's right, you can bet on
• 1:12
  it. I've been betting on it for
• 1:13
  years. And I do have a play for you
• 1:15
  guys for the hot dog contest for tomorrow.
• 1:17
  So bust out the red, white and blue and let's see if we can
• 1:20
  cash a ticket. It has to involve where it
• 1:23
  involves, I should say Joey Chestnut.
• 1:25
  Nope, I'm not laying -2500 for Chestnut to win, I'm going to
• 1:29
  play his over under for total dogs eaten.
• 1:32
  We've actually seen some movement over the last 24 hours
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  in terms of that total hot dogs eaten.
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  So with that being said, going to finish up the pod with a
• 1:40
  Nathan's hot dog eating contest. Best bet for tomorrow.
• 1:42
  But before we get to that, we got another day of Major League
• 1:45
  Baseball. So there's 10 games overall.
• 1:47
  Got a couple days sweats. I have one early play, a
• 1:50
  relatively early play, which which comes up at around 3:10 PM
• 1:55
  Eastern Time today. So I want to hit on that, get
• 1:57
  the pot out early, give you the chance to listen to the
• 2:00
  breakdown, decide whether or not you want to ride with me, tail
• 2:02
  fade, whatever you like to do. But I do have a three pack
• 2:05
  overall, so we're going to see if we can get two out of three
• 2:08
  and eek out a winning day. Speaking of getting 2 out of 3
• 2:11
  eeking out a winning day, that's exactly what we did yesterday. 2
• 2:14
  and 1 + 0.2 units. So again, 2/10 of a unit will
• 2:18
  take it. But some good hits there with
• 2:20
  the Seattle Mariners got it done for the team.
• 2:23
  They were down early and then a Rose Arena hit a home run to tie
• 2:26
  it up and then they took the lead late.
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  Cubbies rolled for the team. Pete Crow, Armstrong and Saya
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  Suzuki and and Menaga pitched well.
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  They're down early, but they slam the door, which is nice.
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  The only loser was the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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  That was frustrating because you kind of felt like, hey, we're
• 2:40
  going to lose this one. But then bottom of the ninth,
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  Arizona two run, Homer by Catella Marte ties.
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  The game goes to extras. San Francisco gets a one in the
• 2:49
  10th to make it 6:00 to 5:00, and then the Diamondbacks have a
• 2:53
  man on 3rd with one out and Jake McCarthy up.
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  McCarthy, all he's got to do, sacrifice, fly, pop it out to
• 3:00
  let you know, to the outfield, you know, ground out to right,
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  maybe a wild pitch. Nope.
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  What happens? He strikes out, next guy makes
• 3:07
  an out. So we lose 6 to 5.
• 3:08
  So those are always kind of annoying because it's like, OK,
• 3:10
  I'm losing this one. Oh no, we're tied, maybe I'll
• 3:12
  get it. And then Nope, you lose again.
• 3:14
  So sadly, Arizona couldn't come through either way.
• 3:16
  Guys, 3 pack of MLB plays for today as well as a hot dog
• 3:21
  eating contest. Best bet for tomorrow.
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  And then again, as I mentioned, no podcast tomorrow.
• 3:25
  So enjoy your 4th of July. Be safe.
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  And what what I mean by that is no drinking and driving because
• 3:31
  there are cops everywhere getting ready to bust you if you
• 3:34
  drink and drive, but then also fireworks, no JPP, Jason Pierre,
• 3:39
  Paul Fiasco's. So be be safe, be careful, but
• 3:43
  enjoy America's birthday tomorrow.
• 3:45
  So that being said, let's dive right into it.
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  I have a three pack of sweats and we're going to see if we can
• 3:49
  grind another winning day in Major League Baseball.
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  So first, but on the board for me, relatively early game here.
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  3:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the Houston Astros
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  visiting the Colorado Rockies now going to this one.
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  The Strohs are 52 and 34. They've taken the first two
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  games of this three-game interleague series.
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  They won the opener 6 to 5 as a -155 Rd. favorite.
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  They won again yesterday 5 to 3 as a big -280 Rd. favorite.
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  So for this afternoon, late afternoon series finale for
• 4:19
  today, we have the Stroh's going with the lefty Brandon Walter.
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  He's one and one with a 3.34 ERA.
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  Mean all the Rockies who are 19 and 67, what a record.
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  They're going to go with the lefty southpaw Kyle Freeland,
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  who's 1:00 and 9:00 with a 5.56 ERA.
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  So what do you see across the market for this one?
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  Well, nothing but movement. There's been a tiny bit of
• 4:39
  buyback, but mostly nothing but movement toward the Houston
• 4:42
  Astros. Guys, I'm laying with the Strohs
• 4:44
  hopefully to finish off the sweep.
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  We saw Houston open as low as -170 -, 175.
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  The sign get all the way up to -190 -, 200 a little bit earlier
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  today. I think it's down to around -190
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  -, 185 at this point. So if you want to play it again,
• 4:59
  shop around, try to find the lowest juice price.
• 5:02
  But aside from that big steam in favor of Houston, we have some
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  good bet splits on the Astros out at DraftKings, 88% bets, 90%
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  dollars on Houston. So kind of pro and Joe, where
• 5:13
  the public is saying just fade Colorado, don't even think about
• 5:16
  it. Whereas wise guys are saying,
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  yeah, when that opened -170 -, 175, that was a pretty good
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  value play because maybe they had it capped based on setting
• 5:23
  their own numbers closer to -190 -, 200.
• 5:27
  Then you look out at Circa Wiseguy Desert Book, 70% bets,
• 5:31
  96% dollars on Colorado, on Houston, I should say.
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  So both DraftKings and Circa with some good heavy one way bet
• 5:38
  splits in favor of Houston. Astros are matching quite a few
• 5:42
  systems. For me, you're kind of right on
• 5:44
  the edge because technically some books are like -185 now.
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  But most of the day this matched big favorites -190 or more.
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  They are 192 and 7073 percent, 4% ROI this year.
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  Rd. favorites -190 or more with a line move in their direction,
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  29 and 1074 percent, 7% ROI. And then just in general,
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  favorites 1 -. 190 or more who made the playoffs the previous
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  year. 136 and 4276%. 8% ROI. Astros in particular have been
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  pretty good as a favorite. They're 39 and 2462 percent, 5%
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  ROI. That makes them the 5th best
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  chalk team in baseball. And in particular, when they're
• 6:25
  a favorite of -150 or more, they've done pretty well in that
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  spot. 15 and 671 percent, 10% ROI.
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  Obviously we're going to hope Walter pitches well and the bats
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  can get to Freeland. Astros do have the better bats
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  overall, hitting 257 on the year, 93 homers, 361 runs
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  scored. If you look opposite here with
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  Colorado, they're only hitting on the year, 229 with 82 homers
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  and 303 runs scored. In particular, Walter, he has
• 6:54
  pitched pretty well. One, one game he got lit up, but
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  in four of his 5 starts this year, he's giving up two earned
• 7:00
  runs or less. So hope that continues here
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  today. You know, Kyla Freeland O and
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  four 7.11 ERA at home. Colorado is only two and 13 and
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  this 15 starts this year. Astros, by the way, are hitting
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  258 against lefties. That's the 6th best in baseball.
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  Colorado against lefties only hitting 223.
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  That ranks 24th. And you know, there's a lot of
• 7:22
  numbers you can pull up for the Rockies that are a lot of pretty
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  good fade numbers. But this one jumped out to me
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  just basic at home. They're only 8 and 34, by far
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  the worst home record in baseball.
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  And then, oh, by the way, popped open the Juice Reel app and
• 7:35
  noticed a 6%, nothing huge, but a 6% sharp mush edge in favor of
• 7:40
  Houston. So the sharper winning players
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  are leaning Astros. That's where I want to be.
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  So good line movement, good splits, system matches.
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  Stroh's have been good in this spot.
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  Let's fade Freeland. Let's hope that the Astros can
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  earn the sweep. I am on Houston.
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  I got the Astros at -190 next one for you. 7:10 PM Eastern
• 8:00
  Time. First pitch, let's go to the Big
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  Apple. Milwaukee Brewers visiting the
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  New York Mets. Now this is the rubber match of
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  an abbreviated 3 game series. The opener was rained out and
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  then we saw the teams play a doubleheader yesterday they
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  split that doubleheader. The Brewers who are 48 and 38,
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  they won the the first game 7:00 to 2:00 as a + 110 Rd. dog.
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  Mets who are 49 and 38. They won the nightcap 7 to 3 as
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  a -1 O 5 home dog. So pitching match up here for
• 8:28
  tonight looks pretty good. Couple good lefties going at it
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  now. The Brewers are going to go with
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  Jose Quintana. He's six and two with a 3.3 O
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  ERA. Mets, meanwhile, are going with
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  the fellow southpaw David Peterson, 5 and 43.3 O ERA.
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  So what are you seeing across the market for this one?
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  Well, nothing but movement on the New York Mets.
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  I got, I got the Mets in this one, guys.
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  The Mets opened this game around a -, 150 home favorite with
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  Milwaukee around a + 130 Rd. dog.
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  And we've seen the Mets get steamed up here -150 now up to
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  around -155 -, 160. I jumped on the Mets -155 at Bet
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  MGM looks like the best price still because again, some books
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  are closer to -160 but in particular at Circa, that's
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  really jumped out to me. The Mets are only getting 15% of
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  money line bets, but 82% of money line dollars.
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  That tells me you got a ton of really sharp, contrarian,
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  technically reverse line movement money on the on the
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  Mets here out in the desert at Circa system matches.
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  We got 3 pretty good ones lit up on the Mets.
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  If you are a home favorite who made the playoffs the previous
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  year playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the
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  previous year, 88 and 4367 percent, 13% ROI.
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  Mets in particular. 27 and 1073% with a 15% ROI as a home
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  favorite. That makes them them the second
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  best home chalk team in baseball.
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  New York does have that non division favorite value, lack of
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  familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team and I do
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  have some correlative betting value.
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  This totals kind of been going back and forth.
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  Some books are at 8, some are at 8 1/2, but all those books that
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  are at 8, that would technically make New York a correlative
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  betting favorite, low total with a few amount of expected runs
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  scored more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team
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  based on who's got the minus number tonight.
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  And then lastly, we're going to hope Peterson pitches well.
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  He's been really good at home. Knock on wood.
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  Four and O record 2.22 ERA. So we had a rain out, then a
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  doubleheader and now we got tonight here, a decent line
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  move, good bet splits and good system matches on the Mets.
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  So let's go Mets baby. I got New York, the New York
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  Mets, not the Yankees, the the New York Mets -155 at Bet MGM
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  last night of the night. This one worries me because I
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  feel like anytime I've got this team, they never come through
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  for me. So they're due.
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  They are very due for us. But let's look at a 7:15 PM
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  Eastern Time first pitch between the LA Angels and the Atlanta
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  Braves. Now this is the rubber match of
• 10:57
  a three-game interleague series, meaning they split the 1st 2.
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  So the Angels, who are 42 and 43 on the year, they won the opener
• 11:05
  for nothing. Cash is a + 165 Rd. dog member.
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  That was the night the Braves were really sharp and it was a
• 11:10
  nothing, nothing game until like the 7th or 8th and they bullpen
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  blew it. So they certainly owe us
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  tonight. But the Braves, who are 39 and
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  46 bounced back with an 8 to three win yesterday and came
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  through as a -140 home favorite. So for the pitching match up in
• 11:25
  tonight's series finale, the Angels are going with the ready
• 11:27
  Jose Siriano. He's five and five 3.99 ERA.
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  Braves, meanwhile, are going to go with the ready brace Elder
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  two and five 5.82 ERA. So what do you see across the
• 11:38
  market here? Well, nothing but movement.
• 11:40
  If you like the Mets, you like the Atlanta Braves.
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  Braves open this game as low as a - 135 - 140.
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  Home favorite LA around a + 120 + 125 Rd. dog.
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  And we've seen sharps hammer Atlanta.
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  Atlanta's now gotten bet up -135 - 140 up to now -150 some shops
• 12:01
  even as high as -155 - 160. So pretty good one way movement
• 12:05
  in favor of the Bravos. If I look at the bets, what's at
• 12:07
  Circa? Really sharp on Atlanta, only
• 12:10
  31% of bets, but 91% of dollars. So really good low bets.
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  Higher dollar split tells us it was bigger, sharper, more
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  respected wise guy wagers at Circa are backing Atlanta, which
• 12:21
  corresponds to that line move in their favor.
• 12:23
  And then I got a lot of system matches on Atlanta.
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  I think I have six overall, but here are kind of the top ones.
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  Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year
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  receiving line movement in their favor. 185 and 8868 percent, 7%
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  ROI. This year both teams are below
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  500. Take the home favorite off a win
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  47 and 2367 percent, 8% ROI. Non division home favorites off
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  a win with steam $0.05 or more in their direction. 125 and
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  6566% with a 4% ROI. In particular because we do have
• 12:58
  a lefty ready match up here. We have the Braves this season
• 13:02
  hitting 251 against Righty's, that's 12th best in baseball and
• 13:06
  also hitting 259 at home. That's the 9th best in baseball.
• 13:10
  Meanwhile, the Angels hitting 230 against Righty's and 2:30 on
• 13:13
  the road. Exactly.
• 13:14
  Had a double check, but it's literally 230 in both spots
• 13:17
  against Righty's and on the road.
• 13:19
  That's 28th overall against Righty's and 24th on the road.
• 13:24
  And lastly, Atlanta is 24 and 18 at home.
• 13:26
  They've been a pretty good team at home, bad on the road, but
• 13:28
  luckily they're at Truest Park tonight.
• 13:30
  Meanwhile, Los Angeles, they are 20 and 22 and 23 on the road.
• 13:35
  So nothing terrible, but a slight losing record there on
• 13:39
  the road. Lastly, maybe it's a bit of AI,
• 13:42
  don't know, just a little, little benefit.
• 13:44
  But I did notice that jerks and Profar, who was signed as a free
• 13:48
  agent, got pop for PEDs. He came back last night, hit a
• 13:51
  home run. So maybe Profar gives him a
• 13:53
  little bit of juice. My buddy Darush and I were
• 13:56
  talking about that on Twitter. So Long story short, guys, the
• 13:59
  Atlanta Braves have hurt me before.
• 14:01
  I feel like when anytime they're sharp and have a line move, they
• 14:03
  never come through. But that just means they're
• 14:05
  going to make it up for us tonight.
• 14:07
  So I laid it with the Braves -150 at Bet MGM again.
• 14:11
  Shop around some books as high as -155 -, 160.
• 14:15
  So Houston, the Mets, and the Braves, let's see if we can get
• 14:18
  2 out of 3 for today. Now let's talk about what you've
• 14:23
  all been waiting for. You can't even sleep tonight.
• 14:25
  You're so excited. That's right.
• 14:27
  It's the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest.
• 14:30
  So going into this, you might have heard me break it down last
• 14:35
  Thursday. By the way, it's another
• 14:36
  Thursday tonight. So I will be on SiriusXM with my
• 14:39
  buddy Patrick Maher and Dustin Swedelsen on VSON Live tonight.
• 14:43
  And I'm going to have a full breakdown on the hot dog
• 14:45
  contest. But you might have heard me say
• 14:48
  it before. I mentioned on Stormy show on
• 14:50
  VSON on on Monday. Money moves, but I've been
• 14:53
  looking at Joey Chestnut and I'm taking kind of a different
• 14:56
  approach to Joey Chestnut. Again, this might be all
• 14:59
  rehashed, but I do have some new data for you.
• 15:01
  Anyway, Chestnut was disqualified from last year's
• 15:04
  contest because he caught a commercial or something with
• 15:07
  Impossible Meats. Obviously, Nathan's not happy
• 15:10
  they wouldn't let him compete. Well, he is back, so back in it.
• 15:14
  He's a huge favorite -2000 -, 2500, really.
• 15:18
  That's such a big number that there's no value to playing him.
• 15:21
  But I did notice that is over under total Hot dogs eaten has
• 15:26
  kind of told us a little bit of insight here.
• 15:29
  So it's been 71 1/2 again. Can you eat 71 1/2 hot dogs in
• 15:34
  10 minutes? I doubt it.
• 15:35
  I might need like 5 friends to do that.
• 15:37
  But anyway, 71 1/2. Now, when I first kind of
• 15:41
  started tracking this about a week ago, the first thing that
• 15:44
  jumped out to me is that chestnuts going to be a public
• 15:47
  play, a big favorite, obviously to win it.
• 15:50
  And again, check on your sports book whether or not it offers
• 15:53
  this because it depends on the state you're in.
• 15:55
  Also, if you are having trouble finding it on your on your
• 15:59
  sports book app, it might be under the tablet says novelty,
• 16:02
  might be under a tablet says special or a tablet says
• 16:05
  competitive eating. So these are just basic home
• 16:08
  housekeeping things. Just at least if you want to
• 16:10
  play it, you got to know where to find it.
• 16:12
  But the first thing that jumped out to me is chestnut 71 1/2 is
• 16:15
  actually not juiced over. It's just it was juiced under.
• 16:19
  So at DraftKings it was 71 1/2 under -125.
• 16:23
  Now the second thing that I noticed and I mentioned was that
• 16:26
  I want that line to move a little bit.
• 16:28
  Not in terms of the total dogs consumed, but the juice, because
• 16:33
  the juice, a lot of people, a lot of new betters, first, they
• 16:36
  don't even realize that juice exists.
• 16:38
  And then when you tell them, they say, oh, I got to win 50.1%
• 16:41
  of the time, right? Just slightly more wins and
• 16:43
  losses to be a successful sports better.
• 16:44
  Nope, 52.38% because of standard -110 juice.
• 16:49
  But anyway, the juice, yes, we have to pay it.
• 16:51
  There's no way around it. But tracking juice movement can
• 16:54
  kind of give you insight into which way the wind is blowing.
• 16:57
  So I was waiting for some movement and guess what?
• 17:00
  I found it. I woke up today and DraftKings
• 17:03
  is still 71 1/2, but overnight, the under move from -125 to
• 17:09
  -135. So that's a big, big notable
• 17:12
  change there. It's $0.10.
• 17:13
  Why take a step back? Why are the odds makers making
• 17:16
  you pay a higher price on the under $0.10 more Now it's $0.10
• 17:20
  more expensive. Well cuz probably respected
• 17:22
  money is going under. Then The second thing that
• 17:25
  caught my eye is out at Circa. Again, great Twitter feed at
• 17:30
  Circa Sports. They released yesterday their
• 17:33
  hot dog eating contest numbers and I went to Joey Chestnut and
• 17:37
  it wasn't 71 1/2. Their number is 70 1/2 and not
• 17:42
  only is it 70 1/2, but it's under -130 so that made me like
• 17:46
  the under 71 1/2 at DraftKings even better because Circa is
• 17:50
  really sharp. They know what they're doing.
• 17:51
  They got a lot of smart people and smart computers setting
• 17:54
  these numbers. So if they're a full dog under
• 17:57
  or less than the market and it's juiced under, that's a good
• 18:01
  sign. Tells me I'm getting a good
• 18:02
  number under 71 1/2. My next angle was to shop around
• 18:06
  because right now as we speak, which it's, you know, early
• 18:10
  afternoon, you know, Thursday, July 3rd, right?
• 18:12
  The day before the contest, we have, let me give you some
• 18:16
  numbers. So DraftKings is under 71 1/2 at
• 18:19
  -135 again, it moved $0.10 overnight.
• 18:21
  Good sign. Caesar's is 71 1/2 under -125 so
• 18:26
  you can still get the 125. FanDuel is 71 1/2 -, 112 both
• 18:32
  sides. But here's where you can take
• 18:35
  some advantage of, take advantage of, and this is what
• 18:38
  actually what I played last night.
• 18:39
  If you follow along with the all systems go best bets on the
• 18:42
  Juice Drill app for $4.99 a week.
• 18:45
  You would have gotten this alert when I put it in last night, but
• 18:47
  I popped open Bet MGM and I was really surprised to see that at
• 18:51
  Bet MGM. This was last night.
• 18:54
  I think I bet it may be like 8:00 at night, 9:00.
• 18:56
  I was watching the Cubs game, but it was under 71 1/2, but it
• 19:00
  was plus 110. So I was like, OK, I like the 71
• 19:05
  half. Anyway, you give me plus money
• 19:06
  plus 110. I jumped on it.
• 19:08
  So I got under 71 1/2 at plus 1/10 at Bet MGM.
• 19:12
  Now, I did wake up today, it's still 71 1/2, but it went from
• 19:16
  plus 110 to -1 O 5. So you really can't get any plus
• 19:20
  money anymore. But if you do want to sweat this
• 19:23
  one with me and if you never saw the hot dog contest, it is
• 19:26
  absolutely insane. It's kind of disgusting, but
• 19:28
  it's kind of amazing at the same time.
• 19:30
  That would be your best number. Bet MGM under 71 1/2 at -1 O 5.
• 19:36
  But it's a bit of a contrarian play.
• 19:38
  You know? I gave you these numbers a few
• 19:40
  days ago, but Joey Chestnut missed last year.
• 19:43
  The two years prior to that he had 62 and 63 now like a 10 year
• 19:47
  stretch prior that he was in the 70s, but he's a year older.
• 19:50
  He had a year off. I'm also regretting that I
• 19:53
  didn't jump on this at the time, but there is a prop bet.
• 19:56
  Will anyone break the record and eat 76 dogs?
• 19:59
  At the time, no was -275. I didn't play it.
• 20:03
  Now it's -400 so if you played it, you're feeling good about
• 20:06
  that, but it's a bit of a contrarian play.
• 20:08
  Year off, year older again. He was in the low 60s last
• 20:12
  couple times. I'm playing Joey Chestnut under
• 20:16
  71 1/2 dogs again. I got plus 1/10 at Bet MGM last
• 20:20
  night. But MGM still has your best
• 20:22
  price now minus one O 5. If you don't have Bet MGM,
• 20:25
  fanduel's -112 caesar's -125 DraftKings, now it would be your
• 20:29
  most expensive -135 but again, that's a good thing because it's
• 20:33
  gotten more expensive, which how likely means smart money came in
• 20:37
  on that under. So Joey Jaws, Joey Chestnut the
• 20:41
  GOAT, all I need is 71 or less. Again, if you're, if you're up
• 20:45
  by 20 and you know you're at the 8-9 minute mark, you know, don't
• 20:49
  go nuts. You don't have to, you don't
• 20:51
  have to set a record. Just stay under 71 or 71 or
• 20:54
  less. That is the goal so that about
• 20:56
  does it for episode 312 of the all systems go sports betting
• 21:00
  podcast powered by rhythm. We had to get in a hot dog
• 21:04
  eating contest official best bet because tomorrow once I I so by
• 21:08
  the way I will be writing a sharp report for visen.com for
• 21:11
  MLB. So if you want to check out
• 21:13
  those plays, I'll tweet them out at Josh under score insights and
• 21:16
  all the bets will be located on the juice reel ASG pod page.
• 21:20
  But I got to write the article and then head up to the in laws
• 21:23
  because we're having a cookout for the first time.
• 21:26
  They, they just moved into their new house in New Hampshire from
• 21:29
  San Diego and I felt bad for them because we've gone through
• 21:31
  a heat wave and their AC wasn't working.
• 21:34
  Well, they finally got it fixed. We bought them a grill.
• 21:36
  We're ready to rock'n'roll tomorrow.
• 21:38
  So I'm looking forward to it. But anyway, with that being
• 21:41
  said, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and
• 21:43
  I start first, as always, by saying thank you.
• 21:46
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 21:48
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 21:51
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 21:53
  If you do enjoy this pod, if it's helped you to make some
• 21:56
  sharper or smarter bets, you feel like you picked up on a
• 21:59
  couple clues, or maybe you feel more confident making wagers
• 22:02
  because you're taking a data-driven approach and not
• 22:05
  just a bias or favoritism approach.
• 22:07
  Well, if that's the case, you want to help me grow the pod.
• 22:09
  Please could you give it a five star review on Spotify or
• 22:13
  iTunes? Would go a long way to
• 22:15
  continuing to grow the pod. If you want to leave a nice
• 22:17
  comment under the review tab or click the follow button or
• 22:21
  recommend the pod to a friend. I would also very much
• 22:23
  appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 22:27
  bedding breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian bedding.
• 22:30
  You know what the beauty of data-driven bedding is, guys,
• 22:32
  hot dog eating contest. As long as you're able to read
• 22:35
  the market. I'm not saying it's a guaranteed
• 22:36
  winner, but you can kind of bet on anything as long as you're
• 22:39
  able to read the market and kind of pick up on some context
• 22:42
  clues. But if you want to learn more
• 22:45
  about data-driven betting, you want to let me know you
• 22:46
  appreciate the pod, think about going to Amazon.com and typing
• 22:50
  in the Everything guide to sports betting.
• 22:53
  It's the first book ever wrote. Very proud of it.
• 22:55
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
• 22:57
  set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
• 23:00
  locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
• 23:03
  how to go contrarian, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
• 23:05
  It's great for brand new betters, but also some, you
• 23:08
  know, new or intermediate betters.
• 23:10
  I got some good systems in there you might enjoy.
• 23:13
  So if you know someone who's maybe betting too many games
• 23:16
  with their heart and should take more of a analytical approach,
• 23:19
  grab them a copy of the Everything Guide to Sports
• 23:21
  Betting on Amazon. And while you're on Amazon
• 23:24
  getting the Everything Guide, then type in the NFL Sharp
• 23:26
  Betting Playbook. It's my new book.
• 23:28
  It comes out August 12th. Cannot believe it, but we're
• 23:31
  almost here, almost basically at least or exactly 5 weeks away
• 23:35
  kind of. Which is crazy, but it is
• 23:38
  something that is near and dear to my heart.
• 23:40
  My new latest book. I can't wait for you guys to get
• 23:43
  in your hands and and give it a read because I've been working
• 23:45
  on it for quite a while at this point.
• 23:46
  It's got a lot of new information I've learned
• 23:48
  specifically over the last few years.
• 23:50
  But if you want to pick up the Everything Guide or the NFL
• 23:54
  Sharp Betting Playbook, you can bring them to the sports book.
• 23:57
  I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer.
• 23:59
  Or truly. Or maybe we'll take some 4th of
• 24:02
  July jello shots and get some nachos and have a dog and have
• 24:04
  some fun. Sounds pretty good to me.
• 24:07
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 24:09
  Rhythm does a great job of powering this pod, giving us AI
• 24:12
  back models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 24:15
  I mentioned yesterday they added WNBA props.
• 24:18
  There's a game today I was kind of thinking about playing, but I
• 24:21
  decided not to because I'd hate to go 2 in one of the winning
• 24:24
  baseball day and then lose a WNBA bet and then have a losing
• 24:26
  day. But if you do like player props,
• 24:29
  they are now available for Rhythm for WNBA and Major League
• 24:32
  Baseball. Then of course, Juice Reel, a
• 24:34
  fantastic app for a bunch of different reasons, but this is
• 24:37
  the part of the pod where I'm going to hold out a pass the hat
• 24:40
  and hold out a tip jar. If you like this pod, it's free.
• 24:43
  If you want to support the pod and let me know you appreciate
• 24:45
  the insights, please drop in a $5.00 bill by signing up to get
• 24:49
  the all systems go best bet picks, which are exclusively and
• 24:53
  only available on the Juice Reel app.
• 24:55
  I can click that link up. I tweet out late afternoon each
• 24:59
  day. It'll say something like you
• 25:01
  know, Thursday ASG podcast best bets are posted.
• 25:03
  The Juice Reel. You click that link.
• 25:05
  You can go to the buy sell tab on the bottom right and click
• 25:08
  search and search ASG under score podcast.
• 25:12
  But you'll get some some plays a little bit earlier.
• 25:14
  Hopefully beat the closing line and you're supporting the pod,
• 25:16
  which would make my day. But also you're getting the robo
• 25:19
  Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 25:21
  arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures.
• 25:24
  Sync up your sports books. Get a running report card of
• 25:26
  your action keep you honest know your strengths and weaknesses.
• 25:29
  It's all available when you download juice reel.
• 25:32
  So download Juice reel, download rhythm, give them a five star
• 25:35
  review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
• 25:39
  page? Well, if you don't, you need one
• 25:41
  because you got to be able to track the market.
• 25:42
  If you want to bet this way, you got to be able to lean on the
• 25:46
  market and be the first to know as soon as anything changes in
• 25:49
  the market. So there are a lot of live odds
• 25:51
  pages out there, but the best one is odds logic gives you all
• 25:55
  the different sports books, including the market setting big
• 25:57
  ones, which are the first to move like pinnacle Chris
• 26:00
  bookmaker bet online circa. Then, of course, all the books
• 26:03
  that you bet at, it'll give you the opening column, the current
• 26:06
  numbers. You can see which direction the
• 26:07
  line's moving. You can pull up the line
• 26:09
  history. You can identify Steam as as
• 26:11
  soon as any odds change, they get lit up in red and then I
• 26:14
  think it's green and then yellow.
• 26:16
  And then you'll also get the live scoring in the live line in
• 26:18
  game wagering. So if you want to make a a live
• 26:20
  line wager, which to me football games, it's where there's a lot
• 26:24
  of value there, but that's all available when you give a shot
• 26:29
  to odds logic. So go to this link
• 26:32
  oddslogic.com/josh 123. You'll get a 7 day free trial
• 26:37
  and 50% off your first month of service.
• 26:40
  So that about does it for episode 312 on the 4th of July
• 26:43
  Eve edition of the ASG Pod. As always, I'm gonna leave you
• 26:46
  with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
• 26:49
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 26:52
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 26:55
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 26:57
  Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
• 27:01
  Massachusetts. Or of course, out in the desert
• 27:03
  where the true grinders get down.
• 27:04
  Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
• 27:07
  use possible is found at the South Point.
• 27:09
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 27:12
  swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 27:14
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
• 27:16
  and show me a nice Mariners ticket and a nice cubbies
• 27:19
  ticket. I ask you guys, who's better to
• 27:21
  sweat than the Cubs? They just they they're fun to
• 27:24
  they're fun to bet on, mostly because they went a lot.
• 27:26
  But anyway, first one's on me. Next one's on you will post
• 27:29
  about the book. So what some games together
• 27:30
  tonight. So as always, guys two and one,
• 27:33
  one and two, three and OO and three hot, cold, coming off a
• 27:37
  great day or a terrible day or somewhere in the middle.
• 27:39
  We always stick to the model in the blueprint.
• 27:41
  We just keep grinding it. Grinders with blinders, as an
• 27:44
  old buddy of mine used to say. So in in that case, again,
• 27:48
  passing on the games that have red flags, getting downs on on
• 27:52
  getting down on the games that check off our boxes.
• 27:54
  You know what that is by now, Games that are simultaneously
• 27:57
  against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 28:00
  avoid parlays and get that closing line value.
• 28:02
  If we can do that long term, and I'm pretty confident that we can
• 28:06
  then guess what we're going to be successful sports sweaters.
• 28:09
  So have a great thirsty Thursday, everyone.
• 28:11
  I will be on tonight SiriusXM with Patrick Maher on Beeson
• 28:14
  live tonight at 8:00. But beyond that, hope you have a
• 28:18
  great Thursday. Hope you have an even better 4th
• 28:20
  of July. No drinking and driving and
• 28:22
  again, no, no craziness with the fireworks.
• 28:25
  Last thing we need is someone to blow a finger off.
• 28:28
  But hope you enjoy the hot dog contest.
• 28:31
  Let's go under 71 1/2 of the GOAT.
• 28:34
  Hope you have a great 4th of July.
• 28:35
  We will be back at it on Monday. That'll be episode 313 of the
• 28:40
  All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 28:43
  Good luck everybody and have a great 4th of July.