Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 214: Cattle Market Update: Plant Closures, Brazilian Beef, and What Comes Next with John Campbell

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214: Cattle Market Update: Plant Closures, Brazilian Beef, and What Comes Next with John Campbell · CattleUSA Daily

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In today's podcast episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast, we
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are breaking down the markets with John Campbell once again.
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It's been a minute since we had John on both travel schedules
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and the holidays and everything else.
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It's just schedules didn't fully align.
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But John is back and he is bringing the market report to us
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and some candid conversation surrounding the plant closure in
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Lexington, NE that was recently released.
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And then also we touch on Brazilian beef imports, the
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tariffs surrounding those in everything like that, John gives
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a very candid conversation about everything that is happening in
0:35
the cattle industry and what we can anticipate going forward.
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Before we get into this podcast episode with John, if you are
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watching on YouTube, if you could take a second to make sure
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that you subscribe to our channel and like this episode,
0:46
we would really appreciate it. And to all of our listeners
0:49
listening on any podcast platforms, make sure that you
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take a second to follow the show and that you go take a second to
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rate and review it as well. We really appreciate it here at
0:57
the team. Without further ado, let's go.
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Go ahead and hear from John. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
1:06
podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
1:10
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
1:12
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
1:15
passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
1:17
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:21
episode. John, it has been entirely too
1:31
long since we have chatted. The holidays had us all over the
1:35
place and now I'm you and I are switching roles.
1:37
You're in the office today. I'm the one in the car parked on
1:41
the side of the Interstate doing our podcast today.
1:44
It's it's nice to switch roles up a little bit.
1:46
How have you been? I'm terrific, I'm terrific.
1:49
We gathered all of our family up and all of our kids and kind of
1:53
left the country for a while and believe me, I am glad to be
1:58
back. I am not a short pants and
2:01
sunscreen kind of guy, if you can believe that.
2:04
However, my wife did comment I was trapped around the house
2:07
with my Speedo and she thought boy oh boy, your legs really got
2:11
panned. Boy, it's no longer like you
2:13
walk in and you're like, oh, I'm blinded.
2:15
By the it's still bad, but now it's hand instead of just white.
2:20
OK, I'm following. I'm following that.
2:22
That's fair. Honestly, that that makes total
2:24
sense. Did you like, take your straw
2:26
hat down with you and everything?
2:27
No, but my son-in-law did. He never leaves home without his
2:31
straw hat. He wears his straw hat in the
2:33
pool, and if he was a Stampede string guy, he'd a wore it in
2:38
the ocean. That's too good.
2:40
Well, we are happy to have you back.
2:42
I am excited to hear just your thoughts on everything kind of
2:47
going on in the world right now. We've had a lot happen in the
2:50
past few weeks, but before we get into that, what happened in
2:54
Lahana this week? Give us kind of the rundown on
2:56
how the sale went. Well, real quickly I want to let
3:01
everyone know that that is actually where Lauren keeps her
3:04
cigarettes. Now she has tried to tell me
3:08
that is a substitute for a nicotine patch, but I know
3:12
better because if you'll notice, she's got the window cracked
3:16
right over there and every once in a while she'll turn her head
3:18
and blow a little smoke out. But that is a microphone for
3:22
those of you over the age of 65 that have no idea what the hell
3:26
she's got strapped on her chest there next to those big buttons.
3:30
John wasn't sure if it was a microphone or a little like one
3:34
of those alert buttons. Like I need help, I've fallen
3:37
and I can't get UPS. I mean, it can be whatever you
3:40
want it to be, you know, depending on where you.
3:44
Parked, of course. Now, if you park where I park,
3:46
you need a first alert. Especially as old as I am you,
3:50
you probably pick a little better place to park and not
3:53
quite the gangster activity as there would be in the Costco
3:57
dumpster at Albuquerque, NM. Yeah, Yeah.
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I can say with full confidence that I feel a little bit more
4:04
secure and safe with my parking location than you were a few
4:08
weeks ago. So I think we're good on that
4:10
number. OK, all right, all right.
4:12
And let you know where exactly where you're at and I I will not
4:16
disclose it. Yeah, you can't give away my
4:18
secrets, John. Come on now.
4:19
I might need to park here again. Everybody's got their little
4:23
spot. They pull over and, you know,
4:25
pull down a few. My gosh.
4:27
Jeez. What happened in Lahata this
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week? OK, we we've that, that that's
4:32
enough of the icebreaker. What's going on in Atlanta?
4:35
Not a lot going on last week. So with the holiday shortened
4:39
week. So nothing really to report on
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other than we did have a a really nice cow sale back
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November 21st. So just couple weeks ago, over
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3000 pregnancy tested cows and Fred Heffers and really pretty
4:55
refreshing the market that came out, you know, in in the midst
5:00
of all the turmoil and all that, you can always kind of get back
5:05
to the stock cows. And that's where you know, the
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the, the rubber meets the road because you're dealing with a
5:11
hands on stalker producers, cow cap guys that are the heart and
5:17
soul of our business. And they don't have any
5:20
preconceived ideas about what has just happened or market
5:24
psychology or what the government's doing and that
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that's in their mind. But you really get it's what a
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public auction it is all about because you're dealing with
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producers and, you know, just the heart and soul of our our
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industry. And they really responded and
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results were as you can imagine plus some.
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We had a huge crowd, lots of outstanding cows, bread heifers
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and really a great test of the market.
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These young cows kind of 4000 up to $4800 and I'd be talking
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about quite a few of them. The biggest percentage of the of
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the volume would have traded hands in in that range on the
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young 345 year old cows, these solid mouth cows kind of, you
6:13
know 3234 up to 37800. The old cows, maybe not quite as
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zippy as what we saw two months ago, but because some of the
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edges come off of the cap trade and the yearling trade.
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And, and those guys that are buying old cows are going to,
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they're not getting married to them for very long.
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They're they're treating them like a stalker or a yearling and
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they're going to turn those cattle over after they can.
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So kind of 24 to 2900 on the old pregnancy tested cows, not a lot
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of bread heifers on the market, but what the that we did have
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pretty good competition. I'd say the bulk of the bread
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efforts would bring 36 to 3900. We had one set up to 42 1/2.
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So All in all, really good stock cow market.
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We will have another stock cow sale here in La Hana.
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It'll be a good one December then.
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So we're looking for between 3 and 4000 pregnancy tested cows
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right here at Winter Live in La Hana on Friday that the 19th.
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So several cow herd dispersals will have some registered cows,
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big strings of registered cows. And so be a time here before the
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end of the year, you can spend some of that money you've made.
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Absolutely. It's kind of refreshing to hear
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a little bit of a positive take about what has happened in the
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markets the last few week. It's been really volatile.
7:41
Things have been all over the place.
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But it's refreshing to hear from you, John.
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And you say like, hey, we, we're still running in the cattle
7:48
business. We've got people here that at
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the end of the day, we're we're still cattlemen.
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We obviously are affected by things that are happening in the
7:55
world right now. But at the end of the day, we
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have to buy and sell cows and that's what people are still
8:00
doing right now. Yep.
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Not nuts and bolts, supply and demand without any interference
8:05
from the commodity market, the Packers, the Amas, you, you, you
8:10
name it, where you're just dealing with the salt of the
8:13
earth people. And that's that's the real
8:15
market. Yeah, absolutely.
8:17
Well, kind of on that note, what are your thoughts on all of the
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current events that we've had happened over the past few
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weeks? We've got a packing plant
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closure in Nebraska. We've got Brazilian beef tariffs
8:28
being taken back off, that 40% being taken back off, and we've
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got just so many other things happening in the world right
8:35
now. Just what are your thoughts on
8:38
everything that's kind of happened recently?
8:40
You know, it's interesting the closure and and and this has
8:45
been talked about and hashed and rehashed and the whys and the
8:49
what fors and and the this and that.
8:51
But you know, my take on it, Tyson's Lexington, NE plant.
8:55
I I thought it was interesting that they closed that plant
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because the only place in the country really of any
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significance where the numbers are up as far as on feet numbers
9:07
are Nebraska and Iowa. And they're both they both got
9:11
more cattle on feed there then they did this this time last
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year and actually some historical highs.
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So let's let's close the plant in Lexington, NE OK, But you
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know the the closure of the plant, you just look back on it
9:29
and the next day or the next week Monday, why the Packer was
9:35
able to buy cattle $1015.00 a hundred cheaper.
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You know, just off the psychology of that and the
9:44
negative effect of that. Why pretty but pretty big dent
9:51
in the closure. Just buying all of that cattle
9:54
$10 a hundred cheaper and and it was an older plant and at the
9:57
end of the day, you close it because they don't have enough
9:59
volume to keep it open. The volume is all still going to
10:03
get killed somewhere. But if you go back into a
10:06
previous podcast that I've had, I stated several times that
10:09
these plant closures and slow downs.
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So we're on their way. And if anybody's following along
10:16
and, and it, and it's not that I'm so smart, it's just that
10:20
we've seen this game played out before and, and you can't, you
10:25
know that next comes the deal. And granted, we're in shorter
10:29
numbers and that kind of helps, but boy, Lauren, we can't buy
10:33
your, your fat cattle because boy, we got no place to kill
10:37
him. We, we close that plant now, you
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know, you, you'll have to keep them or feed them a little bit
10:43
longer or else we could buy them a little cheaper if you'll pay
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the freight to pack a plant in Texas or somewhere, you know,
10:52
and you'll, it's the same game. It, it, it's just a a different
10:57
excuse. You know, numbers are tight and
11:00
that, like I said, it is really going to help.
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Now you watch the games. Will the games will begin with
11:06
the what, what inventory we've got that rather than pay up, you
11:10
know, for the local producer, why let's depress the price and
11:14
ship Nebraska and Iowa cattle even more so than they're doing
11:19
now all the way down to Texas to to kill them and then also raise
11:24
the price to the retailer because, well, we've had a plant
11:28
shut down and we got this big supply that we need to, you
11:34
know, work, work through and or we don't have as big as supply
11:37
because of the kill capacity is down.
11:40
And so they'll kind of go hand to mouth and don't plan, I guess
11:45
what I'm saying on the beef getting a hell of a lot cheaper.
11:49
So you know, last Monday, as I mentioned, we had fat cattle
11:53
that were traded at 2:10 and the cut out was at 3:50.
11:58
And by Friday, why they thugged all they could at 2:10 and just
12:04
supply and demand they had to go to 2:20.
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So that's 150 bucks a head on a 1500 bounder in in five days.
12:13
You know, whether it's up or whether it's down and I'll get
12:17
into that a little later, but it's these dramatic shifts that
12:21
we're seeing within a course of days or essentially within a
12:25
course of minutes. And so I thought it would be
12:28
interesting. Let's kind of look back at where
12:31
we've been over the last 30 days.
12:33
You know, in Pratt, KS, feeder cattle, heart of the world,
12:37
we're a calf market here. But you're, you're in the thick
12:41
of it when you're in Pratt, when you're in Salina, KS.
12:44
You know, on October the 16th we sold £800 steers in Pratt, KS
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for $4.00 a pound. Roll forward to November the
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16th. 30 days later, the same steer brings $3.45 a head.
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That's $55 a hundred, 400 and $40 they had.
13:06
Do you look at the January feeders?
13:09
October the 16th they traded at 378.
13:12
Thirty days later, $3.15 on November 16th was a close.
13:19
That's $63 a hundred, 504 dollars they had difference.
13:24
The fat cattle on the 16th were priced at 241.
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Thirty days later, November the 21st, as I mentioned, they're
13:34
priced at 2:10. That's $31 a hundred, $465 a
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head in. In the meantime, the carcass cut
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out value was at 365 October the 16th, November the 21st it was
13:49
at 371 up 7 cents. We we've had four and $500
13:55
swings below the carcass stage and and and the meat stayed
14:00
exactly the same. The producers took $440 less for
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their feeder cattle, the feed lot operators, the fat cattle
14:09
salesman took $465 less for their fat cattle and the Packer
14:15
sold all the meat for the same price.
14:18
And it wasn't like we saw big swings in the meat market like
14:23
we like we did in in the live cattle.
14:25
You know, the problem, in my opinion, is not so much to do
14:29
with how high the cattle actually got or where they drop
14:33
down to, You know, it's all about these huge swings and
14:37
values over such a short time frame.
14:40
Yeah, that was great. They went to $4.00 a pound.
14:44
But you know, in the beef production phase, the last, you
14:47
know, last 6 to 8 months or even longer if you're in the cow
14:52
calf, man, we absolutely, unequivocally cannot deal with
14:58
these four and $500 swings, whether it's up or down.
15:02
Not not in our, our business. You know, we don't have the
15:06
Packer luxury of completely reinventorian every three days.
15:12
You know where Oh yeah, we can change our price in three days.
15:15
We'll kill them today. They're out.
15:17
They only own the cattle for three days.
15:19
We can't withstand those kind of moves in an industry where
15:23
you're locked in 6-8 months, a year at a time.
15:26
Like I said, like like the Packer can, where you can
15:29
reinventory or or worse yet, the huge futures speculation
15:35
accounts that can jump in and out of our cattle market in a
15:39
matter of seconds. You know that that physical load
15:43
of £800 steers that we talked about on today's market will
15:48
cost you $160,000. That's cash money on the barrel
15:53
head. You don't make payments.
15:55
You can't pay for part of them today and part of them next week
15:58
and then the rest of them when you get them back.
16:00
It's cash on the barrel head. And our Commodity Futures Trader
16:04
control can control the same load of cattle, 4%, that's the
16:10
margin money. You have to put up 4% of the
16:14
cattle's actual value. That's 6300 bucks.
16:18
So the producers putting out 160,000.
16:21
And if you're trading it on the commodities, you can trade that
16:25
$160,000 worth of cattle for 6300 perlo.
16:30
The same holds true for the live cattle.
16:32
A Packer or a speculator can trade your $88,000 investment
16:39
£40,000 at the current market of 220 for 3600 bucks.
16:45
And if you don't think that swap is happening right in front of
16:49
you and we see it all the time, you've got these huge spec
16:54
accounts that will take our physical inventory that we're
16:58
backing up with hard cash and, and, and they can tie up the
17:03
same amount of cattle for 4% of the value that that we're
17:08
putting up. It's happening right in front of
17:10
us. And boy, if you haven't seen
17:13
that in the last 30 days, the state mental hospital in Pueblo,
17:17
Co has your room ready for you and you can set right next to
17:22
mine. We can play checkers, you know,
17:24
more. And really this chaos and this
17:27
unpredictability. And in my opinion, if we hold
17:31
true to the, the road that we're on, it'll do nothing but
17:35
accelerate the mass exit of producers and feeders from our
17:39
business. Over all my years of doing
17:42
these, whether it was Facebook or the podcast with you, I, I
17:46
have physically beat this point to death.
17:50
And kind of a recap from 1960 to 1970.
17:55
You know, it happened in the poultry industry.
17:59
If you want to go research some of my work, all of you may
18:02
remember what do you call the white stuff in chicken shit?
18:08
And you can research that. In 1980 we went from over
18:13
600,000 pork producers to today where we have 60,000.
18:21
That's a 90% drop. You know cattle production is
18:25
ass deep into the first step that train wreck the pigs and
18:29
the chickens. Eliminate the cash market.
18:32
That's the first step and I'll repeat that for you in the back.
18:37
Eliminate the cash market AM as alternative marketing arguments.
18:42
I read some of the comments. Please explain yourself When you
18:46
say an AMA that is called grade and steal and my daddy was in it
18:52
70 years ago. It's been around quite a while.
18:55
It's pretty proven point. We just have a different name
18:58
for it now. The ranch to rail product, the
19:01
Walmart completely vertically integrated.
19:04
That's what they're trying to do.
19:06
And our business from consumption all the way to the
19:09
consumer, no cash market, no price discovery.
19:13
Step 2, use imports to displace the domestic production.
19:19
That sound familiar, Are we doing any of that give the
19:22
Packer more cheap imported product to dilute our homegrown
19:26
beef with. That's a real smart move and and
19:30
I think everybody ought to be able to see what's happening.
19:33
You know, cattle producers down over 100,000 had that.
19:38
That's a 15% decline in producers in our business in
19:42
just the last five years. And what what I would say in
19:47
closing, if you're part of the program or part of the problem,
19:51
I hope that you tell your grandkids that you sold out, you
19:55
wore your pink panties to work. So now they're in a position
19:59
where they have to shovel shit or stock shelves.
20:03
With what's left in our American beef business, and that is where
20:06
we're headed and the writing's on the wall and you don't have
20:10
to be very smart to put two and two together and see where we're
20:13
headed. So shame on you if you're part
20:16
of part of the problem. And I understand it's a gift
20:19
horse. It looks really good on the
20:21
short term, but just step back for a minute and say what are we
20:26
really doing in our industry when we're going vertically
20:30
integrated and and I'm in the auction business.
20:32
You bet am I biased? I'm biased as hell, but my ship
20:36
sailed. I'm gone.
20:37
It don't make a shit to me. Do whatever the hell you want
20:40
to, but it makes a difference to the next generation and the
20:43
generation after that. And if you give a piss at all
20:46
about all of them riding to the front and kind of make your
20:50
voice heard and I'm not very hard to get a hold of.
20:53
And if you think you've got the the silver bullet that will help
20:58
in this litigation, you can find my number.
21:01
And believe me, I know how to get how to get that hurt.
21:04
And I'll get it in the right people's hands.
21:07
But it's accumulation of all of these things that are sending us
21:11
down the road where we're at. And I understand why we're
21:14
falling into these traps. So many people have no other
21:17
choice of doing it. But you're part of the problem,
21:21
and we've got to change this around.
21:24
Can you do it? Can I do it individually?
21:26
No, but maybe, maybe. And I give it a very slim chance
21:31
based on their past history. But you're going to have to put
21:34
it in the hands of the litigators and the government.
21:37
And somebody's got to step up and enforce the rules that are
21:41
are already in existence. I don't know if they'll do it or
21:43
not. I doubt it.
21:45
But we got a shot. If you got a silver bullet, let
21:49
me know, I'll get the message of the people that need to hear it.
21:52
Absolutely. I think our biggest issue that
21:54
we run into these days across all industries, not just the
21:58
cattle market, it is the short term Band-Aid on a bullet hole.
22:03
Let's deal with this for now. We're going to get through the
22:06
next five years, but you're not thinking about the 10, the 15,
22:10
the 50 in advance of what actually is it going to take to
22:15
make this cattle business something that you can hand down
22:18
to the next generation? And you're not handing down
22:21
$5,000,000 worth of debt and all of these lawsuits and just
22:25
different things that you tied yourself up in and now you're
22:28
leaving it for everyone else to handle and deal with.
22:31
That's just bad, bad character and bad business and in general,
22:35
right? Like, I get it.
22:37
It looks pretty. It's the Unicorn that they put
22:40
in front of you. That's like the magic bullet,
22:42
right? That will fix what I'm in right
22:45
now. It's going to get us out of
22:46
debt. It's going to get us in a place
22:47
where I can send my kids to college and all these things.
22:50
And it's like everyone means well, I think when they do this
22:53
initially, but it's the short term mindset that people get
22:58
stuck in and it's like, OK, this is going to fix us for the next
23:02
five years. You're not thinking that 10:15,
23:04
20-30 down the road of what it's going to be for your business,
23:07
what it's going to be for your kids, or even if you don't have
23:09
kids, what it's just going to be for the next generation of
23:11
cattle producers in general. Yeah, that, that's right.
23:14
And nobody wants to take responsibility for that.
23:18
And they think, well, in my little corner of the world, I
23:21
don't have a very big effect on that.
23:23
And that's not what I'm doing. But it's a cumulative effort
23:27
that's going out there. And like I said, we're we're
23:30
already into step one, eliminate the cash market.
23:35
You know, if you make a deal with the devil and you don't
23:38
eliminate the cash market, I don't care what it is, I'm not
23:41
begging for people to take their cattle to the auction.
23:45
I think it's a tried and true principle and it it's a good
23:48
one. But when you eliminate the cash
23:51
market, you are at the mercy of the people at the top of the
23:56
pile that are going to establish and set the price for you.
24:00
There's no discovery you will be dictated to.
24:03
And if you're part of an AMA now, as 85% of them already are,
24:08
you're already getting dictated to and you think you got some
24:12
leverage, you got nothing. Ask the chicken shit boys.
24:16
And you know, to go back to that story, the white stuff and
24:21
chicken shit is chicken shit too, is what it amounts to.
24:25
And now all the poultry guys are, are are raising and in the
24:30
poultry business for the Packer. And you know what they get out
24:34
of it? Chicken shit, that's what they
24:36
get. You can keep the litter, it's
24:38
called litter, and do with it whatever you want to.
24:41
Well, that's a business you want to get into.
24:43
Just sign right up, ask the hog guys how they got along and we
24:47
say, Oh no, we're a completely different dynamic than that.
24:50
We've already entered into step one and Step 2 is the next
24:54
phase. Maybe they don't want to own the
24:57
land and raise the cattle, but you're selling to a feeding yard
25:02
guy. Ultimately at the end of the
25:04
day, who's already in bed with him?
25:06
He's a pass through feeder. They've already got their thumb
25:10
down on what they'll give for one.
25:12
And we keep eliminating and eliminating and eliminating the
25:15
supply of the people that are willing to bid on them.
25:18
Because 85% of the people that are buying your feeder cattle
25:23
are already a pass through feed lot that are in bed with the
25:27
Packer. So you're already selling them
25:29
to them. So anyway, that's what are.
25:33
Your your thoughts on what are your thoughts on Brazil and the
25:37
re importation that we're going to see a Brazilian beef and just
25:42
everything that kind of has to do with taking that 40% tariff
25:45
back off that got implemented this year?
25:48
Well, you know, again to reiterate what I said when, when
25:54
you are outsourcing to replace your domestic supply, there is
25:59
no way that that can be good for the person that's investing 6-8
26:04
months a year into their product.
26:06
It doesn't matter how many cows you got or what the numbers are
26:10
if you're outsourcing production.
26:13
Yeah, we're down on our numbers. We're down on our numbers.
26:16
There's no question about a fundamentally that is a sound
26:18
statement. But once again, when you when
26:21
you start outsourcing your supply, it doesn't matter what
26:24
you got over here because we're going to fill the void with this
26:27
foreign beef then. OK, so who's going to handle all
26:31
this foreign beef? And we talked about that before
26:34
and it goes right into the hands of the people that can handle
26:38
it. The Packers are are not evil.
26:41
They're good businessmen. They are working within a
26:44
complex that we've provided for and taken every advantage of it,
26:49
no different than anybody else would.
26:51
They're maximizing the position that they're in.
26:55
The problem with it is what they're doing is illegal, and
26:58
we've got nobody to enforce the laws that are supposed to be in
27:03
existence to stop these kind of things from happening.
27:06
And we've let them get so big, but they're the ones that's
27:10
going to get the foreign meat trade.
27:11
And they're not going to call us up and ask us how many pounds of
27:15
Brazilian beef we want. They've got to go in the same
27:19
hands. And what do you think those
27:21
people will do with it? I don't know how they're going
27:23
to regulate it or how they're going to handle it, but they've
27:26
already got a free run of mixing our product with that product,
27:32
diluting it out. They're buying it at a reduced
27:35
price. Then they can hand to mouth and
27:38
pass it out. Hamburger, you can freeze it
27:40
forever and price it where you want to, where you think it'll
27:44
move, where you think the consumer will sell it again.
27:48
They have the luxury. They don't have a perishable
27:51
product at that time. Freeze it and then pass it out
27:54
at whatever price you want to. And we've got a government that
27:58
thinks that's going to lower the price.
28:02
You got four people controlling the whole damn meat market and
28:05
you're going to give them more product to sell, displacing the
28:09
local supply. What's that do?
28:12
That puts pressure on our on our own fat cap.
28:15
We got more supply to deal with that.
28:17
We don't have to give you as much for your product because
28:21
we're getting all of this cheap brush shit dropped in on us and
28:26
we can mix it and grind it and put it right out the front door,
28:30
whatever the hell price we want to because we're in control of
28:33
the deal. It has had the inverse effect of
28:37
what Mr. Trump thought it would have, and I don't think he was
28:41
malicious in doing it. I don't know, but you couldn't
28:45
ask for a better scenario if if you're a Packer because they
28:49
know their numbers are limited. That's why they shut the plant
28:53
down and they will use that to their advantage.
28:56
But holy mackerel, it's a gift from Jesus.
29:00
We get all of this meat coming in now we got more product to
29:04
sell. Cripes sakes, you got to get hit
29:08
in the head with a brick to figure that shit out.
29:11
I don't know. I really hope, and I like
29:14
Rollins and I still do, and I'll get all the haters on there.
29:17
Well, you just come so close to admitting that, but you never
29:21
did. You're you're still in bed with
29:23
the guy and you're damn right I am.
29:25
But she has done some things. I think we've taken the Mexican
29:29
border issue out of the market. But if you have listened to her,
29:32
she has indicated this is going to be a gradual process.
29:36
I think that's a big deal that I think there's a lot of cattle
29:39
sitting down there. I know she's getting pressured
29:42
from the Texas boys because that is the the model that they have
29:46
fallen into. There's plenty of other cattle
29:49
in Texas, go buy all them. But we're locked into whether
29:53
it's feeding these Mexicans or getting vertically integrated
29:56
with a beef on dairy that just feeds clickety, clickety click
30:00
every time and produces the same end result that's easy to fall
30:04
into. And so when that goes away, why
30:07
we're we're, we're pretty upset. But there there's plenty
30:10
auctions in, in Texas, There's plenty of cattle down there feed
30:13
something else besides displacing our local feeder
30:17
cattle and calves with them, Mexicans.
30:20
And so the cattle are out there just go get them and and let the
30:24
market decide what they're worth.
30:26
But again, I don't think the Mexican deal is going to shock
30:29
the futures market. Maybe like we were really
30:33
worried it was going to, she has kind of give us a little insight
30:37
and a little information into that is that we're going to walk
30:40
into it slow if she does what she says she's going to do.
30:44
And so, and we've seen some rebounds in the futures and, and
30:48
I think it's a combination of that.
30:50
And back to your Brazilian question, I believe after they
30:53
sell so much meat, then the quota kind of, or the tariff
30:57
goes back up. I, I'm not up on all of it.
30:59
Or whether they dropped the, the whole thing and they can just
31:02
flood the market with it. That I don't know.
31:04
But really I, I, I think we've seen the highs and they've ran
31:08
her down pretty good. And hopefully now maybe we're
31:12
seeing some level ground where this this is where we're going
31:16
to start trading cattle at. But you know, I don't know,
31:20
because you've got all these external forces that like I
31:24
said, in the last 30 days, you haven't you haven't been around
31:28
much if you haven't seen what the government and what the
31:32
emotion and what the speculators and everybody that what they can
31:36
do to our grassroots producers. It's never been more evident
31:40
than it's been in the last 30 days.
31:42
And I just give you the numbers to back it up with and you, you
31:44
can check them if you want to. They're right.
31:47
Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. Well, John, thank you for your
31:50
insight today, for your thoughts, your opinions.
31:52
It's been great to have you back and to I hate, you know, I, I
31:58
enjoy these. I get to sit back and I just get
32:02
to take it all in. And I love your thoughts and
32:04
opinions and your candor that you bring for everyone.
32:07
And you know what? The haters are going to hate in
32:09
the comments. I read them too.
32:11
And you know what? I get a good laugh over them
32:14
with a glass of wine in the evenings, so I think that's the
32:17
best way. To do it and that's great that
32:20
that's what makes the world go round.
32:21
You know what I mean actually? And I appreciate them and
32:24
there's a lot of them I agree on and I've been fact checked the
32:28
number of times and they've sure they'll been right and I've been
32:31
wrong. But you're getting.
32:32
We'll admit it, and we'll admit it too, yeah.
32:35
Right. And that's great, but you know,
32:38
everybody has to take it value and find what you can find in it
32:42
and process it. I'm not saying I'm 100% right.
32:45
I'm just a legend in my own mind.
32:48
Absolutely. I love it, John.
32:50
Well, thank you for your time today.
32:52
To all of our audience members, thank you for listening to
32:55
another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
32:59
We will see you all next time on another episode.
33:01
Have a good one y'all.