Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the number of NZ Citizens leaving New Zealand

Transcript

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the number of NZ Citizens leaving New Zealand · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You better get out of the way, because the stampede
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: of New Zealand is leaving the country rolls on in
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: record numbers. Fifty six thousand left the country in the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: year to April, which beats the previous record, which we
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: thought was bad enough. Mark Smiths nay As by economists
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: back with us, Mark.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Morning, Good morning, Mike.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: The bigger picture on immigration, we're still getting nick gains.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: The neck gains are slowing. Are we getting the balance
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: about right? Do you have any view on that or not?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're moving closer. As you said, the net and
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: flow at the moment is still one hundred thousand people,
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: which is absolutely massive historically, But the numbers of arrivals
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: are certainly slow and the numbers of departures are picking
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: up as well. So we are moving in the right direction,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: but still still a way to go yet.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Reason I asked the question is Hayes had a survey yesterday.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Twenty five percent of employers are saying, look, it's worse
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: than last year in terms of skills gaps in the
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: labor market. Are you seeing that? Is that your view
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: of what's going on?
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I think, anecdotally is the case. If you look at
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: an average age of people leaving it's thirty three. Average
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: age of people coming in this twenty nine, So they
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: could well be a bit of a mismatch. But between
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: who's coming and who's leaving, New Zealand's productivity record is
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: not great and this will only exacerbate that as well.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, indeed, so as far as the number of kiwis
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: leaving the country is this, I mean, this is not economics,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: it's just per is this getting embarrassing? There is something
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: wrong with us?
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: It tends to happen sort of every decord or so
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: we saw a similar sort of dynamic and it sort
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: of you know, ten years ago, twenty years ago, tends
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: to happen. Really, it's reflectible what's happening offshore as well.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: If you look at the opportunities for New Zealander, is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: you know, it's probably better across the ditch. I mean
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Australia on the point rate at around four percent is
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: below hours at four and a half and higher wages
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: on offer lower living costs that it's pretty clear for
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: from a New Zealand's point of view, where they should
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: probably be coming.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: When you say lower living costs, here's what I know
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: about Australia at the moment. I looked at the Hayes
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: salary business yesterday. Yes, generally if you go to Sydney
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: you can earn more money and a whole variety of
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: different jobs, but not a lot, and then you've got rent,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: and rent, as far as I can work out in
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Australia is a nightmare. And that's before you buy a house,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: which is also a nightmare. Is it really that good
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: or do we just have in mind Australia's berg. It's sunny,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: so we might as well go.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: No, Yeah, you're certainly correct, I mean in terms of
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: relative to incomes. But you're right, I mean it depends.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: We do go some places obviously where there is very
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: very cute skill childrens in Australia. You know, New Zealander's
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: you know, obviously they're very attractive for Kere. He's there,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: but other places are quite different. It's very very similar.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: To the New Zealand and do you think people will
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: come back? So, as we sit here fretting about all
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the young people of the do they eventually when they
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: get married, want to have kids, raise their kids, et cetera,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: still decide New Zealand's okay?
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Yes, I think that's hopefully the case in New Zealand.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: New Zealand doesn't really offer you know, it's probably not
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: the biggest, the best place in the world for salaries,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: but the lifestyle in New Zealand is certainly second to none,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: and that's a mat magnet for New Zealand's good stuff.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Make appreciate your expertise as always make Smith asp economist
• 3:03
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• 3:06
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