Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD: Surviving Global Economic Shifts | RONS BASEMENT / Insider Insights: Using Data Science to Anticipate Gold & Silver Trends

Transcript

Insider Insights: Using Data Science to Anticipate Gold & Silver Trends · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD: Surviving Global Economic Shifts | RONS BASEMENT

0:03
This is the big day, the moment you've been waiting for.
0:06
The big prediction What will the silver price, what will the gold
0:11
price be in March of 2025? We're fortunate to be joined
0:17
today by Mr. Don Wedding. He's a data scientist, a
0:20
statistician. It's a real honor that he's
0:23
joining us because if you remember about a month ago, we
0:27
put out a initial video where we asked you for your gold and
0:31
silver price predictions for next year, March of 2025.
0:36
Don has worked tirelessly compiling all the data, applying
0:41
data science appliance statistical analysis to this
0:45
data. And today we're going to give
0:47
you the big prediction. Now this will be based on the
0:50
wisdom of the crowd methodology. Donald, explain a little bit
0:54
about that to you. Don.
0:55
Welcome to Ron's basement. It's.
0:58
Good to be back, Ron. Well, it's a big honor.
1:00
On behalf of all the basement dwellers, I want to say thank
1:03
you to you for all the work that you put into this, this price
1:07
prediction, which we will reveal here in just a few minutes for
1:11
everybody. But I know you put a lot of work
1:13
in. You've got a very impressive
1:15
background. Just so everybody knows who
1:17
we're talking to, Don, I wanted to go out to your website real
1:21
quickly. Don owns a company called DKW
1:24
Analytics Data Science Consulting.
1:27
It's a consulting firm with expertise in all areas of data
1:31
science, and US basement dwellers love data science,
1:34
ranging from traditional statistical analysis to more
1:38
advanced techniques including machine learning and artificial
1:43
intelligence. And let me Scroll down.
1:45
I also want to add the Don teaches statistics and you can
1:50
correct me if I'm if I, if I misspoke on that Don.
1:52
But Don teaches statistics at Northwestern University, which
1:57
we all know is one of the more prestigious and higher quality
2:01
higher education institutions in our country.
2:04
Don, tell us a little bit about this method.
2:07
I guess as we get started, we're going to tell people what
2:10
science, data science is, is saying about what the gold and
2:13
silver price could be a year from now.
2:15
But I'm going to be quiet and let you tell people what this
2:18
wisdom of the crowd methodology, how that works.
2:21
OK, well there you go. The the wisdom of the crowd is
2:25
actually a technique that's widely used politics, marketing
2:30
many different fields. And the back story was about 100
2:36
years ago. Famous statistician named Sir
2:38
Francis Galton. There was a County Fair and the
2:44
everyone had to guess the weight of a cow and the one who got
2:47
closest would be the get to earn you know win the cow and after
2:54
there was like 800 people there and their predictions were such
2:57
that they were all over the map. And so when the the the contest
3:02
was over, Sir Francis Galton the statistician like number.
3:05
So he averaged everybody up just for fun.
3:07
And he found out that the cow weighed something like 1200 lbs
3:12
or 12104 lbs and the average of everybody was like 11199 lbs or
3:20
something in that neighborhood. So they were only off by a
3:22
couple of pounds. So even though everybody was off
3:25
by a lot, the average was only off by a fraction.
3:29
And he began to study this and he realized that you have an
3:34
equal probability of getting it high or low.
3:37
And if you get enough predictions, you can possibly
3:41
accurately predict something like this.
3:43
Now, looking at a cow is one thing.
3:46
As you get to see the cow. Now what I was interested in is,
3:49
can this be used to predict a future event?
3:52
This is going to be a lot more tricky.
3:55
Looking at a cow is one thing, but trying to predict the the
3:58
price of silver is who knows. I mean, we're we're we're
4:03
rolling the dice here, Ron. Well, well done, right?
4:07
You know, but you know, we may as well throw our prediction in
4:10
and based on data science because as we both know, there's
4:14
no shortage of silver price predictions as we look out into
4:18
the coming year. So why don't we dig into the
4:21
slides and and tell people, show people kind of the data that you
4:26
compiled. You might want to go to the,
4:29
yeah, I'll go back to slide number slide #2 here.
4:35
I think you should really go to slide #1 because I think that
4:37
quote by Yogi Berra is a good one.
4:39
It's a Yogi Berra the the baseball player and manager.
4:42
His famous quote was It's tough to make predictions, especially
4:46
about the future. Hold on, Don.
4:50
That's why we have this. The Magic 8 Ball.
4:53
So, so when, when, when we do the big announcement, 'cause we
4:56
are gonna tell everyone what we think based on the scientific
5:01
method, the silver and gold price, or what the science tells
5:05
us, right? We aren't.
5:06
We aren't giving financial advice, don't make any financial
5:09
decisions based on anything that Don or I say.
5:11
We're just telling you what the data science is telling us.
5:14
But when we're done with that, we will then consult the Magic 8
5:17
ball to see if our prediction will come true and.
5:23
And and should you tell him that that's really where my logo came
5:26
from or is? That, yeah, that's where Don's
5:28
logo for his company came from. And we're going to talk some
5:31
about just your general thoughts and my general thoughts about
5:34
what's going on in the silver and gold market because today
5:37
sure feels like April Fool's Day for anyone who's watching the
5:40
gold price, unfortunately. But let's get back to these
5:43
slides and we'll go to slide number one.
5:47
I think you said you wanted to start with gold.
5:49
Is that correct, Don? That's correct and my my reason
5:51
being that most of the basement dwellers, myself included, I'm
5:55
more interested in silver than I am in gold.
5:58
No, sure I find gold interesting, but I really I I
6:02
watch your show and a lot of the other silver people, it's just
6:05
fascinating for me. So I thought it would be
6:08
interesting to do start with gold, because people have less
6:13
of an emotional investment in that.
6:15
Now you'll see that I that I know that there's probably a lot
6:19
more predictions now, but I stopped it at 326 people.
6:23
The first, you know, I I grabbed everybody from Ron's basement
6:28
and I took their predictions. So I you can see I have 326
6:31
people made predictions of these, 270 of them made a gold
6:35
prediction and 311 made a silver prediction and it was all over
6:40
the map. Also right underneath you see
6:42
average people and that was me walking around Cleveland and
6:47
anytime I went anywhere ran a errand for my wife or you know,
6:53
anytime I had any interactions, you know, spam caller who knows
6:58
what I would ask them their their prediction on gold and
7:01
silver because I wanted to use that as a baseline of people to
7:05
see what an average person versus a Ron's basement person
7:09
would say. So that's where we.
7:10
Start. I thought everybody out there
7:12
was a was a basement dweller. I guess there are some not
7:14
right. Yeah.
7:16
Go figure Ron, I'm I'm hooked on the show but but but when I turn
7:21
it on my wife runs out of the room.
7:23
So. Right, so does mine, by the way.
7:25
She just doesn't care. So OK, so of this I this is just
7:31
what you're looking at here is the raw data and you can see
7:35
that it was all over the map and some of the people really
7:41
predicted some wild numbers now like for example, one person
7:45
predicted a number of gold, you know, predicting gold one year
7:49
from now at 15,000,000. And this person wasn't just
7:52
being silly, they had a bunch of rationale behind it.
7:55
But I thought, OK, I get it and maybe this person is correct,
7:59
but in order to do this math correctly, I'm going to have to
8:02
throw away the outliers. And an outlier is somebody who's
8:05
massively different from the rest of the people.
8:08
So I have some techniques and I'm not going to crawl into the
8:12
weeds about this, but there are techniques to getting rid of
8:14
outliers. So I got rid of these outliers
8:17
and you can see that the that at this point it when when that
8:21
15,000,000 and a couple other people were in the millions,
8:24
those people were taking our average up to like 60,000 or and
8:28
if you look at a 59,764 we don't want to be down at that point.
8:33
Hey, Don, I want to Don, I have a question for you.
8:35
I don't want to interrupt you just so everybody understands
8:38
what's going on. On that left hand column, the
8:40
bottom three you have the mean and the mean is the average.
8:46
Is that correct? That is correct.
8:48
I'm going to, I just add up everybody's prediction and I
8:51
divide by the number of people. So for example, average people,
8:56
if I add up everybody's prediction and I divide by 50,
9:00
I'm going to get 24184 dollars, 2484 Ron's basement.
9:06
When I take everybody's prediction, add them up, divide
9:09
by 270, I get $59,000. That's a big discrepancy there.
9:15
You want me to go the the median is if I just sort them from big
9:21
to little and I take the guy right in the middle.
9:23
So half the people are above this number, half the people are
9:27
below that number. And you can see the number is
9:30
2300 for average people and 2800 for basement dwellers.
9:37
What you're hoping for is your mean and your median to be kind
9:40
of close. Yeah, finally going down a
9:43
little bit further, you can see here that the mode that one is
9:47
not used as often, but I found it interesting is that that it
9:52
the one number that jumped up all the most was the was $3000
9:57
and that was done. Yes, Sir.
10:00
You you you forgot us basement dwellers.
10:03
We aren't statisticians. I want to make sure I have this
10:06
correct. The mode is the most repeated
10:09
number. Is that correct?
10:11
Correct the most common one. The most common number, so, so
10:15
3000 came up under both circumstances, most frequently
10:20
amongst the both the average people and the basement
10:23
dwellers. That's very interesting in the
10:26
median. I want to make sure everybody
10:28
understands that as well I want. I'm going to ask you if if my
10:31
the way I think about the median is correct, The median would be
10:35
that if we had 101 people that had made predictions, the median
10:41
would be the the prediction #51, the one that there's 50 lower
10:46
and 50 higher. Is that is that accurate?
10:48
That is correct. OK, thank you.
10:50
Sorry, I interrupted. No, no, no.
10:52
I I'm a teacher, so I like to just talk.
10:55
So you interrupt all you want, Ron.
10:57
So let's go to. We'll go to the next slide where
10:58
I actually removed people. So there's no outliers here.
11:02
And you can see that once we throw away the people with
11:05
$1,000,000 predictions, the numbers become a lot more
11:10
similar So. Is this where the science comes
11:13
in the the subjective, like your decades of expertise as a data
11:19
scientist, As a statistician? Would you say this is where your
11:23
your expertise comes into play? Yeah, I would.
11:26
I I would say yes to that. Now there's other people who do
11:30
this for a living, and they would probably follow a similar
11:33
technique, but it's at this point it starts becoming more
11:36
art than science, because there's a lot of different
11:38
techniques, and so you get a couple of people who do this for
11:41
a living. Many of them would have very
11:44
similar answers to this. Doesn't mean it's the right way.
11:47
There's other approaches, you might get some different
11:49
answers, but there's there's some standard techniques.
11:52
Yeah, yeah. Well, we, we believe in Don.
11:54
So keep going, my friend. OK, so at this point, you know,
11:58
you can see these are the numbers.
11:59
Now if I start reading these numbers at this point, people's
12:03
eyes are going to glaze over. So instead of of us looking at
12:06
these numbers right now, we'll come back to them.
12:09
But let's, let's let's just Fast forward to, Oh yeah, good point.
12:13
I'll go back one slide please. I also decided to not just have
12:17
average people in Ron's basement, but I combined the two
12:21
as well. So that's these are the numbers
12:24
as well. And let's take a quick
12:27
visualization of this. So this box here is called the
12:31
Box and Whisker plot and it's a nice way of visualizing the
12:34
data. And you can see that the range
12:37
here goes from. I don't know, it's probably like
12:43
the the box in the middle is half the data the the middle
12:49
half of the data, so. The yellow.
12:51
So the yellow box represents the middle half of the data above
12:56
it. The whisker above it would be
12:58
the top 25% in the whisker below it, as you call it.
13:02
The dotted line whisker would be.
13:04
The bottom twist of that yellow box is 50% of the combined data,
13:08
correct? That's correct.
13:10
The you know the the the middle, the middle half.
13:13
And so this is sort of a good way of visualizing the data.
13:16
That black line across the middle is the median.
13:20
In other words, half of the data is above that line and half of
13:23
the data below that line and that number is 26133.
13:29
So 2020, 2006, $100 is the median.
13:33
Now we'll we'll look at the numbers themselves in just a
13:35
moment because if I start spouting off numbers there are
13:39
people's eyes are going to glaze over more so than than probably
13:43
now. So let's go to the next slide
13:46
and take a look. So this.
13:47
So at this point, I decided to split Ron's basement and they're
13:51
the green box on the right and the red box is on the left.
13:55
And this is the gold prediction of average people versus Ron's
13:59
basement. And what I found to be so
14:01
interesting here is that the numbers seem to be relatively
14:06
similar. I mean obviously Ron's basement
14:10
has a, you know we study this stuff.
14:13
So we think gold is undervalued. So we predict it's going to go
14:16
up a little bit higher. But these numbers are are
14:18
relatively close to one another and if we go to the next slide,
14:21
we actually have everything all there.
14:24
So you can. See.
14:25
Yeah, yeah, so, so, and I want to remind everyone, coming up
14:29
very soon is the official Ron and Don Gold price.
14:34
I hesitate to use the word prediction, but for lack of a
14:36
better word, prediction that you are not allowed to make any
14:39
financial decisions based upon. But but we are going to come out
14:43
here soon with the number. Well, let's, let's call that the
14:46
guesstimate then how about that? Ron Yeah, that's right.
14:49
No, that's right. So you can see here we've got
14:51
the the the top guy is combining everybody the the average the
14:56
mean 2600, the median 2600. As a statistician or a data
15:01
scientist, I love it when my mean and my median are very
15:04
close to one another. That's usually a good.
15:08
Sign And would you say that's the case when when you combine
15:11
the data that that mean and median are very close?
15:14
Yeah, those numbers are very similar to one another.
15:17
If they were wildly different, I would say I've still got a lot
15:20
of outliers here, but I like this this.
15:23
This is giving me a good feeling that the, the, the.
15:26
One more and one more quick question that that top combined
15:31
data that is without that, that's the filter data, that's
15:35
without the outliers in the data.
15:37
Correct everything that this is I've I've the outliers are long
15:41
gone at this point gotcha. So and then of course we we also
15:45
can split this between average people and Ron's basement and
15:49
you can see that the if we just split them down the the little
15:52
bit lower, you know the the, the group below you can see that the
15:56
average people on this Joe average on the street 2400,
16:01
Ron's basement 2700. So there seems to be about a
16:03
$300.00 discrepancy here. But, but the numbers are are in
16:08
line with one another. So that's and we'll and you and
16:13
I will come back to gold and silver predictions what what our
16:16
guesstimate is in a minute but let's let's take a quick look at
16:19
silver 'cause I find silver to be.
16:20
OK, Well, you don't, you don't, you don't want to do the big.
16:23
How do you feel about us announcing gold now and then
16:27
we'll go through OK? Sure, Let's do.
16:29
Let's do that. Ron, this is your show and I am
16:31
here to serve. Well, no, you're we.
16:34
We owe you a big debt of gratitude with everything so so
16:37
Don and I talked and I know that you you mentioned this.
16:40
If we look at the combined data up top, the mean which again is
16:45
the average was 2673 and again that was after some data science
16:49
was applied to this data by by Don using his judgement and
16:54
experience in the median was 2633 and we agreed on as a
17:01
prediction for the gold price based upon these data science
17:04
techniques that on March 15th of 2025 we're going to go out on a
17:09
limb and say the gold will be right in the middle right
17:12
between those two $2653. Should we consult the 8 Ball Don
17:19
to see how accurate we are? Yes, please.
17:22
Please do that, Ron. All right, well let's shake up
17:24
the 8 ball. I've tried this before to show
17:29
it on I get you have to believe me what it says and I have to
17:32
turn it here. No, we'll we'll take your words
17:34
for this. Ron OK.
17:35
So the 8 ball tells us that we should ask again later.
17:39
So maybe we'll, we'll do that. Let's do it at the end.
17:42
Yeah, we'll ask it again at the end.
17:44
Let's move on to silver here because you found some really
17:48
interesting trends in terms of the silver predictions as well.
17:53
Let me go to the next slide and here you go, unfiltered silver
17:58
data. And again, you can see that the
18:00
maximum value for the average guy on the street $75, which you
18:05
know that does even that's not all in my opinion, all that
18:08
outrageous. But you get the Ron's basement
18:11
people and some of those people were as high as 42,000.
18:15
Again, there are techniques to remove these outliers and if
18:19
anybody's curious about how I did it, you know, feel free to
18:22
e-mail me. I'll give you all my thoughts on
18:25
this. I'm happy to do it.
18:26
So let's just skip to the next slide where we removed it and
18:30
you can see the numbers now become a little bit more In
18:33
Sync. But there's there's still
18:36
whereas gold, they were kind of close silver.
18:40
There seems to be a disparity here where the average from a a
18:44
person on the street was $27.00, not much different than it is
18:48
today. Whereas a Ron basement person,
18:52
the average was $51, which incidentally is very close to
18:58
the all time high that was reached in both 1980 and what
19:02
was it 2008 or 2007 thereabouts. But it hit 50.
19:07
What seems like that's a magic number, and I thought it was
19:09
really interesting that that number jumped out.
19:12
At us So. So I think it's safe to say that
19:14
the basement dweller community is very optimistic about the
19:18
silver price, huh, Don? That is that that seems to be
19:22
the case. And and again if you look at the
19:25
bottom there, the mode, what I think is so interesting is that
19:30
the most common prediction from a guy on the street was $30 and
19:36
then a basement dweller $30 and also the same number I had
19:41
bimodal 2, two different numbers popped up the most and one was
19:45
$30 and one was $50. But I thought that was very
19:48
interesting that there was a that number seems to be popping
19:52
up a lot. Yeah, that is that that is very
19:55
interesting and I want to throw into that $51 mean or average of
20:00
the basement dwellers which is the basically the all time high
20:05
in silver that that's the nominal price if we adjust that
20:08
1980 high for inflation and you're you're the statistician
20:11
Don, but I hear. Numbers that are always north of
20:15
150 a $160 per oz in today's dollars.
20:18
So who knows, maybe next year will be interesting to see one
20:23
year from now what those predictions look like.
20:26
That's that. Yeah, I've heard those numbers
20:28
as well, but I I don't have the inflation numbers at my
20:30
fingertips. But again, just as we did
20:33
before, we've also combined them here.
20:36
So we got a combination of both average people and basement
20:40
dwellers, and let's rather than dwell on the numbers, let's go
20:44
and do a quick visualization of the silver.
20:47
OK, you know what? And while we do that, hold on a
20:50
second, Don, I want to break in. Is it OK with you if I thank my
20:54
channel sponsor pin backs real quickly before we get to the
20:59
before we get to the official silver prediction, if you decide
21:02
you want to get your hands on some silver or gold or platinum
21:06
now, please do yourself a favor. Check out Pinbex, throw them
21:10
into the mix when you're shopping online for bullion.
21:14
I think you'll find what I found.
21:15
They have the best prices, ultra competitive pricing, great
21:20
service, great selection, and a company that you can trust.
21:25
But you need to find that out for yourself.
21:27
Do yourself a favor and check out Pinbex.
21:29
All right, Don, let's go back to the silver here.
21:32
There we go. So again, this is just, this is
21:35
the combination and again that silver box in the middle, I used
21:39
silver and gold for this. That silver box in the middle is
21:43
the middle half. We have a median of $40.00.
21:47
So that seems to be the the halfway point when we combine
21:52
them and then the numbers go as low as 18 and as high as 112.
21:58
But we're interested in that middle box there and then just
22:03
as we did before, let's split this apart and by basement
22:07
dwellers. Now this is what I found so
22:09
interesting, we can probably scroll up and look at the gold,
22:13
the gold in a second. But you can see that where as
22:16
gold was really close, well I would say really close,
22:20
reasonably close between basement dwellers and guy on the
22:23
street. Silver is considerably
22:26
different. Here the the average guy on the
22:29
left, it's very confined to a small range between you know
22:37
around $40. Whereas if we look at the guy on
22:40
the right Ron's basement, these numbers are considerably higher
22:43
so. We call that, we call that
22:45
optimism here amongst the basement dweller community.
22:50
That is what I'm thinking too now.
22:52
So this could be one of two things.
22:54
One is we can agree that the people who watch Ron's basement,
22:59
we're probably silver junkies. We watch all of the shows that
23:03
have, you know, obviously, Ron, I watch your show first, but I
23:06
watch a lot of other ones too. I like watching it.
23:09
It's fascinating for me. And so I'm always optimistic.
23:14
Now is that optimism causing a bias and making us wishful
23:18
thinking or is this the fact that, you know, when I was
23:22
asking Joe, Joe Average on the street, I'd say, you know what's
23:25
silver going to be? They say, well, what is it now?
23:27
They don't even know what the price is.
23:28
I had to tell them what it was and they're like 02526, you
23:33
know, they don't know. So who knows?
23:35
So that's it's going to be fascinating to see what happens
23:38
this time next. Year and that.
23:39
And that's interesting you point that out because I know most
23:42
people, you probably had to explain to them what Silver was.
23:45
Although I'm joking, most people know what Silver is, but I don't
23:50
think that the average person on the street understands a couple
23:55
of the big fundamental factors that are that are that are
23:59
driving the silver price. I don't want to sound mean when
24:04
I say this, but you know they probably don't realize that
24:07
silver, I mean silver is the only metal that is like what
24:12
basically on in nominal terms half of its all time high.
24:17
Every other metal you know you hear these statistics about
24:20
silver. So I think what you and I guess
24:22
why I'm saying this is, it would make sense based on what you
24:24
said that yeah, the basement dweller community, they know the
24:27
facts, whereas like potentially the average person on the street
24:33
isn't quite as aware of as to what's really going on in the
24:37
silver market. Yeah.
24:40
So you're right. And and it's I don't think it's
24:43
mean it says they don't care. Most people don't care about you
24:46
know like for example if you started talking to me about the
24:48
price of nickel I have no clue so I just don't care.
24:53
So this is what I think and and I would be willing to bet that
24:56
if if I I only had 50 people in my in my sample.
25:00
However, I'd be willing to bet if I had 1000 that that box and
25:05
whisker plot on the left would still be the same.
25:08
Most people do not care and they don't follow it.
25:11
So that's a question is what is? Which of them is going to be the
25:15
more accurate the person who follows it.
25:18
But we are probably tainted by wishful thinking.
25:21
Whereas the guy on the left doesn't care.
25:23
But they're also doing this from you know they don't know much on
25:26
the top. So I'm.
25:28
I'm going to be curious and and of course now we have here the
25:34
the numbers and the the graph and you can see that if we
25:38
combine them it's going to be about $48 is the mean, median is
25:43
40 and the mode is 30. And you can see here on the the
25:48
left and right the average person versus Ron's basement
25:51
there seems to be a big discrepancy there $27.00.
25:54
You know I I told people I go look the price right now is $25
25:58
at the time of my survey and they're on K27.
26:02
They didn't think it's going to go up that much whereas Ron's
26:05
basement it's going to be an all time high it's going to it's
26:08
going to hit that that all time nominal high not adjusted for
26:12
inflation. So, you know, I guess we the big
26:16
reveal is what do you think we should say as our silver
26:19
prediction? And then we'll of course consult
26:21
the Magic 8 ball. Yeah, I think and I think you
26:24
and I spoke about this last week when we when we first were
26:28
analyzing the data or you had analyzed it and were sharing it
26:31
with me that it feels like to me $41.00 for silver that's that's
26:38
the big prediction for March 15th of 2025.
26:41
Forty $1.00 when we when we look at kind of the median data and
26:47
consider also the mean, which again for everybody out there is
26:51
the average and when you combine the data the overall average is
26:55
48, the median comes in at 40 and and and and and and it felt
27:01
right to me $41.00 for March 15th of 2025.
27:07
What do you what do you think, Don?
27:09
I think $41.00 I I would be tickled pink at $41.
27:14
Yeah, Yeah. And and and I think that's
27:16
within the realm of possibility actually.
27:18
I think both of these, the gold prediction 2653 based on where
27:24
we are now based on the fundamental factors supporting
27:28
the gold, the gold, the gold market that that seems very
27:32
reasonable and I think $41.00 for silver, I don't think that
27:37
feels out of the question or like you know I mean $85 is it
27:43
possible? Yes.
27:45
Is it probable but but maybe not right.
27:48
But $41.00 for a silver price basically 11 1/2 months from now
27:53
to me feels very, very doable. And I think even this from a
27:58
fundamental perspective, right? And we could talk about that for
28:00
hours. The fundamental supply demand
28:03
dynamics, the kind of the fiscal and monetary factors influencing
28:08
it, the $41.00 seems to me feels you know, I trust my gut.
28:14
I always say you know to me that and it feels like in my gut that
28:18
based on your statistical analysis, what you've done and
28:22
and and the and also the fundamental factors, that just
28:25
feels right. Yeah, the technical term that we
28:28
use in the data science community is is spider sense.
28:32
Yeah. For for those who grew up
28:35
reading Spider Man, you know it's actually his Spidey sense
28:39
we we have to consult you. Our predictions are nothing We
28:43
have to ask. Nothing.
28:44
I know and I and I was you know, I hope everyone trusts my OK.
28:50
$41 I can't read this down here. OK, it says.
28:55
My sources say yes. Yes, yes, we were.
29:00
There you go, Ron. We can.
29:02
We can trust the old 8 ball. We're in good shape guys.
29:04
We are going to have $41.00 silver and 2653 dollars of gold
29:12
on March 15th of 2025. Don, let's let's talk to you in
29:17
a few minutes to talk about what's kind of going on out
29:20
there in the silver and gold world.
29:22
Before you do that, you have to break those next to on your box,
29:25
you know, next to your bears and everything, so people know what
29:28
our target is. What?
29:29
Our target? Yeah, we'll have to get a new.
29:32
Have to put you out on the spot, Ron.
29:34
The only the only thing that here let me zoom out here.
29:37
The only thing that that this bear cares about is 2500 gold
29:42
because that's when his blindfold comes off and of
29:45
course the Silver bear, they're $85 silver and the Platinum Bear
29:50
$2500 silver. And hey, while I got this up, I
29:53
just want to say thank you to channel sponsor.
29:56
What wrong hand. First Mining Gold.
29:58
First Mining Gold is a gold development company with two
30:01
multi million ounce projects in Canada.
30:04
I'm speaking with Keith Newmeyer tomorrow.
30:06
He's the CE I'm sorry, the founder and chairman, not the
30:10
CEO. The CEO of First Mining Gold is
30:12
Dan Wilton. But Keith Newmeyer founded this
30:15
company years ago with some of the largest gold projects in
30:21
Canada. So that'll be interesting.
30:23
If you want to learn more about First Mining Gold, my hands are
30:27
screwed up. You can go to their website
30:29
firstmininggold.com and of course Fortuna Silver.
30:33
They are a gold and silver mining producing mining company
30:37
with five operating mines. They have a Latin America
30:41
operation and they also have a W African operation which is
30:45
growing from a gold mining perspective at a very fast rate.
30:49
You can learn more about Fortuna silver@fortunasilver.com.
30:54
Now back to us, Don. Well, hey, you know what though,
30:58
Is if the 60, three, $26153 comes to pass?
31:04
That blindfold's coming off the Bears between now and next
31:08
month. Absolutely right.
31:09
Right. The the silver bear.
31:11
Where is he? Oh, boy.
31:12
My hands. There he is, right there.
31:13
We can get a mirror image on our.
31:15
Video Maybe. Maybe next year.
31:16
But hey, you never know, right? Is today April Fool's Day?
31:20
Done. Yes it is.
31:21
Today is April Fool's. Day Let's go out.
31:24
I'm going to run out real quick and take a look.
31:26
Now that we're live here, let's go live and see what the what
31:33
the gold price is doing. Oh boy.
31:36
Yep, we're down $1.46 and silver's down.
31:39
It feels like April Fool's day. I mean last night gold was up
31:43
huge. This morning it was, I don't
31:45
know, up $10 and then it was up 20 and now we're we're we're
31:49
down $1.46. I like to say that those of us
31:55
who invest in the precious metals and of course silver's
31:57
dropped a little bit after being up, I don't know $0.20 per oz or
32:00
more that that that we've developed.
32:05
We we can deal with almost anything as we deal with these
32:08
crazy price swings. Last month was an all time
32:12
monthly close in gold. It was also I believe an all
32:15
time high quarterly close in gold and it happened on big
32:20
volume. But these big moves one of the
32:22
basement dwellers, Tim Zoo texted me this morning.
32:25
He was like, I guess we need to get used to $40 moves and the
32:29
gold price, what's next, $100 moves?
32:33
And it, you know, feels like to me a lot of times that these
32:35
these big erratic moves come before big moves.
32:41
And typically how do I say this that that these erratic behavior
32:45
is common before we have some big moves up.
32:49
Any any thoughts on that, Don? I I've been watching those
32:53
prices for a decade now. And and the only thing I, the
32:58
only thing that I've noticed over the years is like you said
33:00
as you get these erratic moves. But I every time it starts going
33:05
up, my conspiratorial mind kicks in and I'm like they're gonna,
33:10
they're gonna beat that thing down a bit.
33:12
So I'm just waiting for the second, I guess.
33:16
I guess it's like the abused, you know, I've been subject to
33:22
so much abuse over the decades watching that price that that
33:25
I'm just waiting for that second shoe to fall.
33:27
I keep saying that thing at 2200 and I'm like, hey, it's going to
33:31
fall to nothing tomorrow, you know?
33:33
Yeah, yeah. Well, it's funny you say that,
33:35
because I was getting a bunch of texts last night, Jake, from
33:38
Jake's Custom parts. Some of the other basement
33:40
dwellers like Gold's up, Gold's up, and I'm just very happy
33:43
about that. And I love getting those texts,
33:45
but I was like, do you think and everybody kind of jokes around
33:48
like do you think they can slam it down by tomorrow morning?
33:51
And sure enough they did slam it down.
33:53
But what I want to reinforce for myself and for the basement
33:59
dweller community as well as that we could actually at some
34:03
point have a sustained bull market like we could actually
34:07
have And you know and and really in gold things have been going
34:11
pretty well. But with silver as well like it,
34:14
it it like you said, Don, it's like we've been abused for so
34:18
long. But that being said, Ron, I'm
34:20
from Cleveland and we've got the Cleveland Browns.
34:24
So they there is nothing that they can do to me that's going
34:29
to be worse than what the Cleveland Browns do to me.
34:31
So, you know, I'm used to this, you know, but but The thing is,
34:39
again, it's going to sound like I should probably put on a
34:41
tinfoil hat, but let's assume that the price is adjusted by by
34:51
banks, Oregon, whomever Comex. I think that there was a
34:57
concerted effort to keep that number, not allowing it to get
35:01
above 2200. And I it seemed like every time
35:04
they kept flirting with it 2190 and then down and up and and all
35:08
of a sudden one day I log in and I'm like wow, it's 2230.
35:13
It seems like the powers that be did not succeed.
35:18
Why? Sounds like a a conspiratorial
35:21
here, but. OK, listen, Don, let me, let me
35:24
throw this in. Trust me.
35:26
That is, that is you do not sound like a conspiracy theorist
35:29
like you're not presenting that in a way that it's that it
35:35
alludes to the fact that it you know you're not saying anything
35:38
that that many, many people aren't saying that yes, the
35:42
price of silver, the price, I mean it's been proven in the
35:46
court of law that the price of silver and gold had been have
35:49
been manipulated. You know, if you think about it,
35:54
I mean and this is crazy and it the kind of the big picture I
35:57
think that a lot of people miss and I really believe we're
36:00
seeing it with gold. The world is moving away from
36:05
and it's not going to happen overnight.
36:07
It's not an instantaneous change, but the world is
36:10
transitioning away from the dollar and and you know and
36:15
look, I'm an American, you're an American.
36:17
That's not necessarily good for us, right?
36:19
I mean. If if we can continue to print
36:22
money and send it overseas and they send U.S. oil, hey, I'm all
36:27
in on that. Yeah, I I just don't see it
36:29
happening forever. I mean at some point.
36:35
Well, at some. Point They're going to stop
36:37
wanting to take our Green Paper. Yeah, yeah.
36:39
Well, let me, let me, let me, boy.
36:41
Now this, everybody stay with us, 'cause this is, this is
36:44
ground breaking information. But I mean, Don, if you imagine
36:48
that if the whole world is just a village of 20 people, OK?
36:53
You live there, I live there. This most important person.
36:57
I forgot to say thank you to all the basement dwellers who are
36:59
here in the village with us today.
37:02
It's a village of 350 people like we have on this live stream
37:06
right now. But we'll just say it's a
37:08
village of 20 people and and that's the whole world, OK?
37:12
And one guy's a Baker, one guy's a doctor, one guy's a a
37:17
Carpenter or whatever. Everybody has a different job.
37:19
And there's just one guy in that village that that kind of
37:24
outsourced a lot of his manufacturing.
37:27
And he's always borrowing from everybody.
37:29
But he's also the bully, right? He's the biggest guy and the
37:32
strongest guy, and he's got, you know, the best body armor and
37:35
everything else. I I use that analogy for the
37:39
United States and I hate to say this about my own country, but
37:42
we've kind of been a bully and a borrower for the last like 30-40
37:49
years and at some point the world says no more, right?
37:52
Like we don't want to play this game anymore.
37:55
It's like we've been on a on a credit card binge and at the end
37:59
of the day it just can't go on forever.
38:01
At some point the the the the the BRICS countries right.
38:04
Saudi Arabia, China, you know the all those countries say you
38:08
know what they're they're kind of like American Express, you
38:12
know, where like, oh, you have an unlimited credit limit, but
38:14
you really don't, right. Like at some point they're going
38:17
to say no more and are we at that point and and a lot of
38:20
people say that's what's going on and that's leading to this
38:23
conversion of and again it's not going to happen overnight, but
38:27
it's happening this conversion of dollars into gold because and
38:31
then I promise I'll be quiet, Don.
38:33
But. But the reality is they they may
38:36
not want to be in the dollar as much, right, 'cause if you're a
38:40
country, you know, that's that's if you're one of those 20 people
38:43
in that village and this guy keeps borrowing from you and
38:46
he's kind of a bully. And you say, you know what, this
38:48
guy owes me so much, he's never going to be able to pay me back.
38:52
But the other critical thing to remember is that these
38:56
countries, they may not want to be in the dollar, but they don't
38:59
really want to be in each other's currencies either,
39:01
'cause they don't trust each other as much as well.
39:03
So where do they go? Gold.
39:06
Real assets. That that's my thinking as well
39:10
is at some point Fiat currencies tend to devalue over time.
39:20
And so I'm everything you say is nothing that I haven't thought
39:25
of before. Maybe not as as eloquent as you,
39:29
but I've always thought that same, you know, I'm on that same
39:32
mindset and I have a feeling all the basement dwellers wait wait.
39:37
Stop, Don. I'm going to stop the live
39:39
stream right now. I have to say, I have never in
39:43
two years been referred to as eloquent.
39:45
So boy you are. You're going to be a returning
39:48
guest. Eloquent.
39:50
A lot of other words have been used to describe Ron's basement,
39:53
but eloquent is a new one. Thank you.
39:57
I am my moments. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
39:59
I mean it, it, it, it, it, it feels like.
40:03
It's just the reality of the of the situation.
40:06
The reality is to how things are, how things are playing out
40:09
right. Now, but yeah, again, Ron, I'm,
40:11
I'm on your side as well. And you know, I'm always rooting
40:14
for America. You know, this is where I was
40:18
born and raised and you know, I love America.
40:21
But I'm just looking at some of our financial decisions that
40:25
we're making and it doesn't seem like this is a prudent way to go
40:30
so. That's, you know, yeah, Yeah.
40:34
Well and it's, it's, it's when you talk about silver and gold,
40:38
I think the other key thing to remember is the world is doing
40:42
that right. That's why we know this
40:44
obviously why the central banks are buying gold.
40:48
The other exciting prospect we have is silver and gold
40:51
investors is that the the, the retail demand, western even
40:59
investment demand for silver and gold have been really subdued
41:02
over the last couple years. If if our cohort Americans start
41:07
to wake up and we don't really even need that to happen in
41:12
mass, I mean it can be just a small fraction.
41:16
I mean, we are such a small fraction, Don.
41:18
Like, you know, the 300 people that are here right now and me
41:21
and you are, are are representative of the, you know,
41:26
of the entire population. Who knows what we are, maybe
41:29
.5%. I mean, in terms of people who
41:32
are investing in metals, that is as people start to wake up a
41:36
little bit when people start to wake up, that that inflation's
41:40
not really going to go away, right.
41:43
And when you look at what we just talked about with the
41:45
world, you know, kind of D dollarizing, I mean, Goldman
41:48
Sachs talks about D dollarizing. JP Morgan Chase talks about it's
41:52
OK for Ron and Don to say the world is changing, you know,
41:55
this D dollar is it. OK.
41:58
Thank you, Susie. I need to do the dinger here.
42:00
Susie just yelled at me. We got 145 likes, but but the
42:06
the, you know, inflation is not going away as people move.
42:09
I mean, Don, does it make sense like as people move away from
42:12
the dollar that the dollar becomes less valuable and that
42:18
and that inevitably the only way if the dollar becomes less
42:22
valuable that prices go up, right?
42:24
I am I right? You're the statistician.
42:26
I'm yeah but that's that's more economic theory.
42:29
I'm just a guy like you said you're just a guy with the in
42:31
the basement. I'm the guy in a different
42:33
basement, but I'm I that's the whole thought of behind
42:37
inflation is, you know, too much money chasing too few goods.
42:42
And if the dollar amount, as the amount of dollars grows and
42:48
there's less stuff to buy with it, the dollar has to become
42:52
less valuable. Yeah, yeah.
42:54
I mean, I think an easy way for for us to think about it is, is
42:59
if if I have a pile of this stuff sitting here, right,
43:04
silver here, here's an American Silver Eagle.
43:06
If I got a big pile, if I had all of the silver in the world,
43:10
right piled up in my basement, all of it.
43:14
It's limited. It's finite right?
43:16
And but if I have, hold on a second.
43:20
You could, you could, you have to go dig more of that out of
43:22
the dirt. But this we can we can this
43:25
stuff. And I if I had all the, if I had
43:27
all the silver Don piled up in my basement and I had all of
43:30
these, somehow all showed up, piled up, probably go into my
43:34
yard, right? But you know, anyway, you you
43:38
could double these very easily. I mean, they have right over
43:41
what, the last six years, you can double the amount of this
43:44
stuff or quadruple or go up by 10.
43:46
You can't do that with this. You can't, right?
43:50
Somebody has to go with a shovel and dig that stuff out of the
43:54
dirt and then refine it. There's there's work and effort
43:57
behind it, so it has an automatic scarcity built in you.
44:03
It doesn't just magically show up.
44:06
Like I'm going to show my age here, but you know, I dream of
44:09
Genie where she would just blink her eyes and then the stuff
44:12
would just show up. It doesn't work that way.
44:14
Somebody has to go and do some work.
44:17
They have to find the stuff, dig it up, refine it.
44:20
There's there is an automatic scarcity built into this.
44:24
Whereas now, heck, we don't even print the dollars.
44:27
It's just they just push a button and it shows up magically
44:31
in electronic bits and bytes. Yeah, Yeah.
44:34
So, so when you compare the paper to that, to me there's no,
44:39
there's there's no comparison. The other thing that we that we
44:42
can you know we talked about the world de dollarizing that's
44:46
happening in conjunction with a a fiscal situation in the United
44:53
States which is untenable, right.
44:55
I mean on top of the fact that the that the world is kind of
44:58
saying here's your here's your dollars back or they're not
45:02
using and I don't want to over emphasize right like this is,
45:04
this is not like this is a a long term process that's going
45:08
on but it is going on. But on top of that we're in this
45:11
fiscal situation where you're a statistician.
45:14
I'm an old accountant. I'm not practice, actively
45:17
practice accounting, but I understand numbers really well.
45:20
Accounting and debt and interest rates and what's going on is
45:25
that we are in a very untenable situation fiscally in this
45:29
country that's happening. It's like it's like a double
45:31
whammy. Don.
45:33
OK, then correct me if you think I'm wrong, but we'll call it the
45:35
double, the double whammy where you've got the world wanting to
45:39
move away from the dollar for a variety of reasons including,
45:45
you know, the weaponization of the dollar.
45:48
And but at the same time, the world's wanting to move away
45:51
from the dollar because of this fiscally untenable unmanageable,
45:56
the skyrocketing national debt, the future obligations, all that
46:02
the the world's moving away from the dollar at the same time that
46:05
that, that that the United States needs to borrow more from
46:08
the world than any other time in history.
46:11
Is that? I couldn't have said it better
46:14
myself. That's that's why I'm just a
46:19
little concerned with where the finances of this country are
46:22
going at the moment. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
46:24
OK. Let's move on.
46:25
We got give a few more minutes to share with us, Don.
46:28
OK. Thank you as much time as you.
46:30
Need and for all you that have just joined us, don't forget, if
46:33
you're just joining now go back and watch the replay Cause Don
46:37
from DKW Analytics right. He's a data scientist.
46:40
He's a he's a he's a professor at Northwestern University.
46:44
Is that accurate to say that yes.
46:47
One of the most prestigious universities in the in the in
46:50
the world the United States, very highly respected.
46:54
Did a lot of data science work and we came up with he came up
46:58
with. I kind of helped the team.
46:59
It was a it was a team. Effort.
47:01
I don't know about that. But anyway, we have big
47:03
predictions for what the silver and gold price will be in March
47:06
15th. I was listening to a podcast
47:10
last night by a guy named Jordan Roy Byrne.
47:13
Very smart guy. He was talking with Vince.
47:15
Lanchy, Lanchy. I was get I I always mess up
47:19
Vince's last name. Vince has been in the basement
47:21
before for an interview. I want to run over a couple
47:23
things that I found fascinating that they were talking about
47:29
about the mainstream media is starting to talk about gold.
47:33
It it, it is silver next 'cause they're not talking about silver
47:37
at all. But the mainstream media is
47:39
starting to talk about gold. And and it's been a long time
47:43
since they talked about either. They talked about, I thought
47:47
this was interesting, The prospect that there's going to
47:49
be new products coming out that are going to help facilitate the
47:54
ability for the average person to invest in gold and silver,
47:58
that's you know, the deal with what they could see as a
48:01
potential oncoming demand. This is interesting.
48:05
The World Bank recently put out a handbook for asset managers on
48:10
how to invest in gold. Any thoughts on any of that are
48:14
you are you picking up on that Don that they're that we're
48:17
getting more notice in the mainstream media for gold?
48:19
I'm. I'm starting to hear a little
48:21
bit, but I thought that similar things that I thought that gold
48:25
and silver are never going to really achieve their true value
48:29
until it starts getting airplay in in the mainstream media.
48:37
It's kind of like, you know, I couldn't turn on the TV without
48:40
hearing about Bitcoin And it was always Bitcoin, Bitcoin.
48:44
And I thought, well gosh, you know, it almost is an echo
48:49
chamber and it just keeps driving it up.
48:51
And then I thought, well, you know, I wonder what happens when
48:54
they start talking about gold and silver and and now that gold
48:57
is starting to reach all time highs here.
49:01
I'm, I'm still not hearing as much as I would have expected,
49:05
but I am starting to hear people mention it a little bit here and
49:09
there. So at some point I I harken back
49:13
to when I was in high school, back in the 1980s when gold was,
49:16
you know, it went from 200 to 300 to 500 and it was just all
49:21
over the news and it just this euphoric bubble occurred and
49:25
then it got really high and then, you know, began to go
49:29
down. So I think you're going to
49:34
definitely need some kind of news reporting on this before
49:40
the average person, like again, looking at the data from before
49:44
the people on the street, when I would talk to people in the
49:46
grocery store or whatever, they didn't even know what the price
49:49
of gold or silver was. Whereas when I was in high
49:52
school, everybody knew it because it was all over the
49:55
news. So I think you do need some kind
49:58
of a of a news report. Wherever people get their news
50:07
nowadays, I don't know, but it has to.
50:09
They're going to have to see it in every day before it starts to
50:12
get any sort of traction. And you know, if Susie watches
50:17
the Today show every morning, I guess that'll be a good a good
50:21
indicator. When I hear them leading off
50:24
with a story about gold or God forbid silver, we'll know that
50:29
that that that we're getting some real traction.
50:32
There's a a guy named Ross Beatty who's a legend in the
50:36
gold and silver mining sector, super high quality guy.
50:39
He's currently the chairman and founder of Equinox Gold.
50:44
And Ross is just, you know he doesn't give a lot of interviews
50:47
once maybe seems like once every couple of months, but he's a guy
50:50
that I everybody has a great deal of respect for.
50:52
And Ross says that the time to sell silver or the time to sell
50:57
gold is when all the ducks are quacking.
51:01
You know, when everybody's, when everybody.
51:04
I like to say when, you know, if I go to Thanksgiving dinner and
51:08
all my my relatives who never really care about Silver Gold or
51:12
if I go to the neighborhood pool, right.
51:13
I'll tell you what, Don, my neighborhood that I live in, we
51:16
got this really great neighborhood pool.
51:19
It's been there for like 50 years.
51:20
All that's like the the neighborhood watering hole, you
51:23
know, it's kind of like it's really great, 'cause it brings
51:25
people together and but, but, but I like to use this story.
51:30
Some people find it funny. I think it's funny that if one
51:34
of my neighbors comes up to me and I, I don't really want to
51:36
engage in conversation with them, all I have to do is start
51:39
talking about silver and gold. And they tend to, they tend to
51:42
skedaddle. They they, they they tend, they
51:44
tend to swim to a different part of the pool.
51:46
So I guess when there's a crowd of people around me at the
51:49
neighborhood pool seeking advice and counsel on gold, ha ha.
51:54
I'll know that I'll know. Maybe it's time it's maybe it's
51:57
time to time to go. Oh, shoot.
52:01
I had something really great that I wanted to bring up as you
52:04
were talking. I should have should have
52:06
written it down. I want to go back to something
52:08
you said earlier about silver. Where's the Silver Eagle?
52:11
I like. I don't know why.
52:12
I just. I love to show this during the
52:15
that came from Jake Jake's. Is that a good in focus?
52:18
Oh yeah, I. Can see you.
52:20
You mentioned, right? All the energy that went into
52:22
this thing is still there. There's a there's another famous
52:28
YouTube named Bald Guy Money who's a friend of mine.
52:31
Super smart guy, Love bald guy. Roger is awesome, OK?
52:35
I got my hair cut just from just 'cause I'm a fan of his show
52:38
too. I know you, you secretly like
52:41
bald guy more than me, but none the less bald guy he and I were.
52:47
We we do videos together once in a while.
52:50
He brought up this point he was like Ron, that's a battery,
52:54
right? We think of batteries like that
52:55
store energy. But he said and and if I'm
52:58
slaughtering this, I apologize to bald guy.
53:00
But you know basically what he said it's a battery that stores
53:03
value. And isn't it so true?
53:05
I mean this, this silver that's in this one ounce American
53:09
Silver Eagle, it could have been mined 1800 years ago, but it's
53:14
held that value. It's it's stored that value for
53:17
all those years. I mean, it just blows me away.
53:20
It's it's a not a store of value, It's a store of work.
53:24
Somebody, somebody had to dig that thing out of the dirt and
53:29
refine it and turn it into a silver eagle.
53:32
That thing is a it's like the it's it is a a statement that
53:39
somebody did some work and then therefore if you, I don't know
53:46
are a farmer and you grow something and you now have that
53:50
silver eagle, this is that is a some way of saying look I am a
53:55
farmer and I produce something. I did some work and this thing
53:59
is holding the value of that work because that's really the
54:04
money is nothing more than a tool that allows us to store our
54:08
work and use it at a later time. If I if I have to sell my crops
54:14
or my tomatoes instantly because they're going to rot tomorrow,
54:18
I'm going to get stuff that I don't want because I have to
54:21
sell them now. So that's the whole purpose of
54:24
some kind of tool, you know, that's money.
54:27
It has to hold value. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
54:30
And that's probably why silver as I understand it was used as
54:36
money even before gold as well. You know the other interesting
54:40
thing that to to consider as we look at, I mean what a rip off,
54:44
right, like this. What a rip off because because
54:49
especially for the middle and lower middle class people and
54:53
that this is not just going on in the United States currently,
54:56
we've probably gone on for a couple thousand years where you
54:58
have paper money systems that kind of crop up, right.
55:02
I mean, to me, gold and silver are always the base of the money
55:07
system. I'm a big subscriber to Extras
55:09
pyramid. Are you familiar with Extras
55:11
Pyramid? Right, Yeah.
55:13
And that and that. Those are the real forms of
55:15
money that mean. And they're real, right?
55:18
They're tangible. They always have been.
55:20
I like to think they always will be.
55:22
And that everything above that is synthetic, right?
55:25
Man made. Paper money is man made.
55:27
But to think that that this, I mean it, it's really, I don't
55:31
want to be I I always feel guilty when I say this stuff,
55:34
'cause I feel like I'm like being.
55:36
But our founding fathers stood for silver and gold, right?
55:41
That the paper money, I mean we live in a system where under the
55:45
best case scenario, the best case scenario, the Federal
55:49
Reserve is saying we want to steal 2% of your of your money
55:54
with inflation, right. I mean because your average
55:56
middle, lower middle class person who doesn't have a high
56:00
yield checking account or doesn't have a stock portfolio
56:03
or doesn't have you know they work for this stuff and it's
56:07
constantly deflated. I mean, Larry Summers, who was
56:11
the 71st Treasury Secretary of the United States recently came
56:15
public and said basically that the inflation rate in, I think
56:19
it was 2022, such as two years ago, was really more like 18% if
56:26
you use the same calculation that you would have used in the
56:29
80s. I mean, you know it it to me
56:32
it's, it's, it's it's more of a reason for people to consider
56:38
owning precious metals. I mean, I don't know, do you
56:40
want to own stocks? Do you do you want to own?
56:43
I mean, real estate is, it's great.
56:44
My house has, quote UN quote, gone up in value.
56:47
Yours probably has as well. But I don't want to run out and
56:50
buy another house right now, not at these prices.
56:53
I mean, it's ridiculous. I mean, to me, it's a good, it's
56:56
a good, a good case for investing in precious metals.
57:00
Well, yeah. And it's it's like you said
57:02
about the and again, I'm not an an economist here, but I do know
57:06
that they've adjusted the inflation numbers.
57:09
And I mean it's kind of like going to the doctor, it's like I
57:11
want to lose weight. So they, you know, they set the
57:14
scale back a little bit and they said, hey, look Don, you lost 20
57:17
lbs. Well, I didn't really lose 20
57:20
lbs. I just, you know, if you just
57:21
move the scale back a bit. But you know, you're right.
57:27
And then the other thing that I'm thinking about is that when
57:31
they took us off the gold standard, what was it August 15,
57:34
I think it was 1971 and it was supposed to be temporary and
57:39
here we are 50 plus years later and it's still not on it.
57:42
All we have is, is that green paper that they can print
57:45
anytime they want. And you got to wonder at what
57:49
point does, you know, as you were saying earlier, it's people
57:53
are beginning around the world, are beginning to be a little bit
57:56
reluctant to take our money. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
57:59
Well, and there's that statistic too.
58:01
That's, that's crazy that I've now seen in several different
58:06
from several different sources that I think since 1970 the US
58:11
dollar has lost and I've heard 98%, I've also heard 99% of its
58:16
value versus gold. So that's crazy, right?
58:22
I mean, that is just, oh, I know what I want to talk about, Don.
58:24
This is big. This is big.
58:26
This will be our guys stay with us 'cause Don and I are going to
58:29
talk about something big when we talk about the 70s.
58:32
I knew I had it right. When we talk about the 70s,
58:34
right. The silver price, I think in
58:37
early 1970 was like $1.50. In 1980, it hit what, 51
58:43
dollars, $50 per oz in nominal terms.
58:45
Again, in today's dollars, that'd be like 160.
58:48
But we're going to leave that alone.
58:50
Gold also went up. I don't know 15.
58:53
Yeah, went from like $32 up to 800.
58:58
And I know things are different now, OK, right.
59:02
Things are different in this modern age in which we live.
59:05
It's, you know, 50 years later, let's say.
59:09
But I would almost argue, Don, yes, things are different.
59:12
But from a from a fiscal perspective, the national debt,
59:16
the deficits that we're running, everything else that things are
59:19
more are different indeed, but that they're they're more
59:23
exaggerated to the bad side like geopolitically I think, you know
59:27
part of the what went on in the 70s is we we, we kind of set up
59:30
the Petro dollar. I think that officially happened
59:33
in 1974 like like like fiscally the debt level in this country
59:38
has become so much worse geopolitically, right.
59:42
We're in the process of the Petro dollar being unwound to a
59:46
certain degree. I think you could even argue
59:49
that socially things are. I know the 70s were a little
59:53
crazy after the Vietnam War, so maybe socially not as extreme,
59:57
worse, but there was one more as well, one other component that I
1:00:02
wanted to throw in there, but just but just overall that we're
1:00:05
in a situation now like gold and silver did very well in the 70s,
1:00:09
but it's like when you compare things now to the way things
1:00:12
were in the 70s, things seem to be more better.
1:00:18
Does that. Oh, politically, I remember Then
1:00:20
I'm going to shut up down. Politically, you could argue
1:00:23
that things are even right this the politically in the United
1:00:26
States. I mean, we had a we had a
1:00:29
contested election the last time we had a presidential election.
1:00:32
Who knows what's going to play out this time?
1:00:35
So politically, socially, fiscally, geopolitically, are
1:00:39
are things crazy or not down, or am I or am I crazy?
1:00:42
I know I'm eloquent. I don't.
1:00:44
I I don't want to look like I wear a tinfoil hat.
1:00:49
But let's just say everything you said doesn't sound crazy to
1:00:55
me. I don't disagree with you, Ron.
1:01:02
I keep visualizing you with a tinfoil hat while you're
1:01:04
probably thinking Ron brought me on here and I'm no, no.
1:01:07
No, I I, I I enjoy the conversation.
1:01:10
I'm just I I think that basically it's not just me.
1:01:14
I think all of the people who watch your show, we tend to have
1:01:17
the same mindset that you know, you look out there and and it
1:01:21
doesn't look like things are going as well as they were when
1:01:25
I was younger. It just looks like there's more
1:01:27
contention. But do you think that's real,
1:01:31
Don? Or do you think that's just
1:01:33
because we're becoming older men and we're more cynical, right,
1:01:36
'cause I'm 54 and so I was born in 1970.
1:01:39
I mean, to me, the 1970s were a La La Land, right?
1:01:42
Like, you know, I was 10 years old in 1980.
1:01:47
I kind of briefly remember the the, the, the gold and silver
1:01:52
being talked about. Unless I'm dreaming that up.
1:01:55
I definitely remember being one year old and and my mom having
1:01:58
the TV on and Nixon taking us off the gold standard.
1:02:02
She says OK, Susie's yelling at me and do what?
1:02:07
The 10 pings and what? OK, I will.
1:02:12
I got to ring the bell. I forgot.
1:02:14
But I remember my mom said I cried for three days.
1:02:16
But is it real? Wow.
1:02:18
No I'm what are you doing? Nixon Is it real?
1:02:23
Or or or do you think or I think?
1:02:27
Look, I'm, I'm a little older than you.
1:02:30
I'm pushing 59. And yeah, maybe we're just too,
1:02:34
too old curmudgeons here, but it just seems like you're right.
1:02:38
It it it, the world seems more contentious than it does back
1:02:43
when we were younger. It just seems like, yeah, a lot
1:02:48
more, a lot more conflict internally and externally and.
1:02:55
Fiscally in terms. Of everything across the board.
1:02:59
And and so to me it would seem like this would be prime time
1:03:02
for the precious metals and other things of value to go up.
1:03:05
But yet they're not. So that's, you know, hence hence
1:03:08
our conspiratorial mindset of someone's holding it down.
1:03:12
Me, maybe you're right. Maybe things are just rosy and
1:03:14
we're just, you know, paranoid. But yeah.
1:03:18
Well, and right, right. Maybe things are really are are
1:03:22
different this time. I want to say this you you
1:03:25
talked about the basement dweller community.
1:03:27
The people that watch this channel are smart.
1:03:30
That's one thing. That and and that's.
1:03:33
And good and good looking too. Smart and good looking.
1:03:35
Yes, you worked at Don's talking to you boy.
1:03:38
Don, I'm eloquent and the audience is good looking.
1:03:41
No wonder everybody loves you so well.
1:03:43
But they are very smart, right? Like, these are people who want
1:03:47
to dig in a little bit and and and learn what's really going
1:03:51
on. And I think when we do that,
1:03:53
when we learn what's really going on, it can be a little
1:03:55
scary. But I have a tradition here,
1:03:57
Don, where I ring a bell every time we get to 100 thumbs up.
1:04:01
And I failed miserably on that today because I was so engaged
1:04:04
with you. This is an American Silver
1:04:06
Eagle. This is called a pocket pinger.
1:04:08
Have you ever heard of this? I have.
1:04:10
Yeah. So I'm going to ping IT1234,
1:04:16
567-8910. I'm no statistician, but I can
1:04:22
count to 10, right? And let's ring the cowbell,
1:04:27
'cause we got the 200 thumbs up. Don, it's been great.
1:04:31
I mean, I really want to say thank you for joining us today.
1:04:35
Obviously, you're a super smart guy.
1:04:37
Our viewers here in the basement are super smart.
1:04:41
So I know they really enjoyed, you know, having you here in the
1:04:45
basement and discussing not just this this this data science
1:04:50
approach to looking at the silver and gold price, but also
1:04:53
kind of your input on these other subject matters as well.
1:04:56
Can we have you back on again in a month?
1:04:59
Whenever you want, Ron. I'm I'm easy as Sunday morning.
1:05:03
OK. Well, whenever you get fired up
1:05:05
about something, Don, and you think, you know what, I want to
1:05:07
talk about that and you feel passionately, I want to.
1:05:10
I want to give you an open invitation to come back to the
1:05:14
basement at your leisure, At your leisure, especially I.
1:05:18
Think your ratings would plummet here.
1:05:19
I think as long as we're talking statistics I think, I think I
1:05:23
can I can I think you're. I think you're underselling
1:05:26
yourself. And you know, I want to, I want
1:05:29
to repeat one more time. You did refer to me as eloquent,
1:05:32
so you get, you get. You can invite it back twice for
1:05:35
that one. Well.
1:05:36
There you go. No.
1:05:37
On behalf of everybody, I want to say thank you to the
1:05:39
moderators who've been here today helping out as well.
1:05:42
This channel is not possible without the hard work of Susie
1:05:46
and the moderators and I want to wish everyone out there to have
1:05:51
a great day. If you haven't given this a
1:05:53
thumbs up, please give it a thumbs up.
1:05:55
If you want to subscribe to the channel, we put out new content
1:05:58
pretty much every day, something about silver and gold.
1:06:02
Most important. Be nice to yourself and Don
1:06:05
thanks again and we will see you soon.
1:06:09
You take care. Thank you so much for having me,
1:06:10
Ron. I'm a big fan of the show.