Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 16

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold,
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  Speaker 1: eight nine called one eight hundred five to two four
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  Speaker 1: seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit www dot one
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moment,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Welcome to our
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: friends listening live on AMP right now. I am joined
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello Chad.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: How isn't it nice to no two days a week?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Someone is going to introduce you as if you are
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a championship fighter walking into the ring. Yeah, but obviously
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I wish it was the guy who's the famous guy
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: that does Yeah. I mean that that would really make it.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: But you're not. You're not a bad stubborn chat. Well,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Listen. We did the show on Tuesday.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: We broke it down, We started to indicate our leans.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We had a foxhole bet Pats plus three and a half,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: hearing a lot of conversation about wise guys likeing that
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: this week Simon says, was Eagles plus five and a
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: half very interesting conversations on that. This week Execut Decivision
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: was Cults plus four. Unfortunately that is now Cults plus five.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: That's pretty frustrating. We're gonna talk about that. We still
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: over one of big balls. We'll get into Scoot You
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Let Money Around, Round Robin Parlay Simon. Before we do
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: all that, I gotta remind people that on Tuesday, if
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you listen on this Tuesday, we will be going live
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: at ten a m. Eastern, that's December Tuesday. In an
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Eastern reminder, we will put the pics in the app
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: follow phase five. We will do this on Saturday. We
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: have convinced me Saturday morning eleven a m. Eastern. After that,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Simon and I will chat. We'll put in our final
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: five Saturday morning for the contest, follow the phase five
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network out. Before we get to anything,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: we gotta get two sharp calls Hello, who's there? I'm talking.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Usually some weeks I'll get tons of calls um because
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: there'll just be a lot of guys want to hear
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: what other groups are on and vice versa, and guys
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: want to get bets down. That's mainly what my deal
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: is now is I'm getting guys bets down that. So
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I'm able to hear what so many smart guys are
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: doing because they want to get money down here in Jersey.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I'm the guy to call it chat. So this week
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: maybe it's maybe it is part of UM. We're so
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: late in the season here and a lot of guys
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: are kind of you know, they've already they've already won big.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: They're not really gonna push her luck and they got
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: playoffs right around the corner. And I think most people
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: realized that even these last couple of weeks, we've seen
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the numbers. UM, two weeks ago, the most bet money
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: was on Denver. We saw last week the most bet
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: money on the Bears. If that was a week one
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: or two, Meat Chad would go the other way blindly
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: almost because we know that's public money. At this point
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: of the year, it's just all pros, like it really is.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Even I go to the sports books now, it's just empty.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: It really is. UM. It's just different than it is
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: in week six seven, those early weeks. It seems like
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the public is kind of getting beat up here. So
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: this week, talking to guys, not that we're so much split,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: but like again, we can go we can go off
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the top of game that there's guys on both sides.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Guys love the Cowboys, and I don't fault them for that,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: but I feel like they love the Cowboys for the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: same reason we were gonna love them. Like if if
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: hurt was healthy and this game was either a pick
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: or minus one for Dak at home against the Eagles,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the one Eagles, we would have been all over the Cowboys.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: And that's like I keep saying these guys, yes, I
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: agree with your idea and your sentiment that are the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Eagles that much better than the Cowboys? Not really, honestly,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: like they're pretty close, especially on paper. The biggest difference
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: is the quarterback position. I just think Hurts is better
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: than Dak, especially this year right now, So the Minshew
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: movement makes sense. We're seeing now the lines up the six.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. So the pros that hit me up
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: there saying, yeah, I'm taking Cowboys now four and a
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: half because I do think it's gonna be Minshew. I
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: do think the line is gonna go back up. They
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: nailed it, and I was the other way where I
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: thought four and a half was already factor in. Minshew
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: was gonna be in so definitely GA. I mean, you're
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about where it's interesting that it's split down
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the middle. I know a bunch of pros like me
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: that they already had Dallas at a pick in minus one,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: and then they played the Eagles at plus six, at
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: five and a half and at five. When I went
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: to four and a half, I just waited because I
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: was like, all right, I'll wait and see what the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Minshew new is did not see again back to six.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely wh when to talk about um next
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: big one. No surprise, everyone saw the line movement. We
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: we talked about it last week. I mean on Tuesday.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. The pro's love green Bay. They hit that
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: number down to three and a half. Now it's back
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: up to four. That's just a good number. So I
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: still think we'll talk about that at four four and
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: a half. I feel like green Bays a no brainer.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: At three and a half, I guess I could pause
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: and maybe you start to thinking the other way. But
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: that's the thing. If you could get the four four
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and a half, green Bay is a smart side. And
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: then the Patriots, like the pros. I the funnies thing
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: he's talking to these guys who have just been losing
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals and mean, yeah, we've been avoided, honestly,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: like I've had maybe during the streak. I bet you
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I've probably been on the Bengals five times and I've
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: been against him once, so I took the all. It
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: took the all that one time. But for the most part,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: it's been really good, really good to me. These other
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: guys have been getting smacked around by Joe broy They
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: fucking hate Joe Burrow now, which is funny because last
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: year that was their guy. They kept betting him as
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: a dog. He kept covering um all that year, and
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: this year it's really lipped right. The public all over him.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: The guy went to the Super Bowl last year. He's
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: kind of the darling of the NFL. This eleven one
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: runs insane, so I love it chat at three and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a half, but at three that makes you pause. I
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: mean I feel like anyone that's gonna make you pause
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: at three, where it's like, why isn't this still three
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: and a half because the public has done nothing but
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: bet this all week, so no surprise, the pros were
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: all over that one. They loved that three and a
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: half still like a three but I think three and
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: a half was really the key number for a lot
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: of these guys where that was such a big deal
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: to them getting that hook. Because Joe wins games, he
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: wins by three usually like this, these last weeks, he's
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: been kind of dominating blown teams out. Historically, we've seen
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: them play close games. So now not surprising that a
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: lot of pros are on that one, but more so
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: surprising that I didn't think people I thought they'd be
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: scared off because they like again, they're all over the books.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: I just really smart groups all over the books last
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: week and they got slaughtered, Like they really did get slaughtered.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So interesting, interesting calls this week on you know, a
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: couple of sides we like, and the biggest discreem it's
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: gonna be that Cowboys Eagles game, And I just that's
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be normal when there's a backup quarterback coming in.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be people sticking their sides on both sides
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: saying this guy's overvalue or this guy's undervalued in right now,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of pros they just have such respect for Hurts.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: They don't think he's got enough respect on the line.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: They think it should be seven. They said, they say,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: you're still getting get value at six if you're taking
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: to Ellas. All right, a lot to unpack. Before we
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: got on the air, Matt Mitchell mentioned he was curious
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to see if we were getting calls about the Cowboys
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and the Eagle, because I do think that's a game
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: where there is just no consensus. Before we do that,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: let me ask you a question, because you brought up
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: a really good point. At the end of the year,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: it's a lot of pros betting, and you know that
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the money coming in is professionals. And so I was
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: on the phone this morning, uh with Logan Swain, who
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: oversees content for the volume the Colin Cows podcast network.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Logan is a brilliant guy. Logan Logan is the one
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: of the guys who care needed this sensibility and was
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the producer for a Good Morning Football on the NFL
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: network for a long time when sort of it was
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: at zenith, and so that's who we have to blame,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: you know. And so, uh, we were talking about betting,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: and yeah we were. He he was asking me, like,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: am I betting more at the end of the year,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: And I was like, yeah, my bankroll, like my unit size,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: has increased sort of as the years going on, as
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: we make more money, as we continue to do well, um,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: and also because I just have so much more confidence
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: in these final games, Like the board just feels clearer
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to me. And it's like the other way for the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: other people, because they're like they've just been so burned, right,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the public has just been so burned. They have perceptions
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: coming to the year, and those receptions don't work. They
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: have a hard time adjusted to it um, which isn't
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: always fun. People listen to our clips from the summer
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: and they know they'll either talk shit or support us,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: and they'll just be like, you, guys, really did nails
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: nail that Jags pick. Just how the Jaguars Trevor Lawrence
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: can take that next step, YadA, YadA, YadA. And it's
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the way I view the season, where
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I'll come in with perceived notions, but we keep adjusting.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: By like week four or five, that's when you really
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: guys are trusting the math. Like so Chad said, I
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: honestly let a lot of money sit on the table
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: this year because we were so good. I just kept
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: waiting for a disaster week and by week eleven, it
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: just wasn't coming. I was like, all right, forget it,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Like I gotta get back to my ways of just
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: betting big, big amount of money because it's just it's
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: just a good year, and it's been that way all year.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the interesting part is it's Christmas time,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Like these are normal people living normal lives. They gotta
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: buy presents. We all know it is like there's it's
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: everyone's a little tighter, so that the money, most of
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the money better right now, is gonna be pro money.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be pro money and millionaires who are gonna
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: be throwing the money around. It's not really gonna be
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the five ten dollar parlay guy at the counter like
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: it usually is. So that that's definitely something you noticed
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: where like every weekend, I mean it's been two straight
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: weeks for me, I picked the team of the most
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: pat money that you it would scare me off, but
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: it doesn't at this point the year because I know
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that's pro money, especially when it's a huge dog. So um,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: like you just said, it's the public will come back
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but for right now, it's it's mostly
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: pros and the people that were smart managing their bank
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: roll to this point, which obviously should be hopefully fans
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: of the show, but fans of other shows that they're
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: probably broke at this point because it is it's hard
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: to make money. Well, as you said when we were
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: coming in the air. Uh, the most bet money right
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: now on the board, a game that we love, uh
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Tuesday that we still love today Chicago Bears the money.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: The line has moved from nine and a half down
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: to eight on that game. The other the other game
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: right now with the most bet money, which we barely
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: talked about. Um, I'm gonna skip the Eagles for a second. Uh,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to skip the Packers, which all Joe
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: has the money. Um, the broncos cent of the money.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints of the money as three point
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: dogs against Cleveland, and those are all road teams on
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: that's my issue with all of them, where it's like
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: when it's a home team, I don't mind it as much.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Denver that was a big home dog the Bears last week.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: We're a big home dog again this week. Bears were
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: a big home dog. I mean, you both loved it
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: because not only because of the weather, but we're like
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: this is that nice matchup for this Bears team that
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: they want to run the ball. It's really the only
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: struggle that the Bills have had this year is against
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the run. So not shocking all that numbers come down,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: especially when you know how cold it's gonna be. As
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: great as the weapons are for the Bills, that's a
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: huge difference throwing in fifteen twenty mile prior winds and
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: the windshields minus six, Like, that's really hard to catch
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: balls that are just literally bricks and you have one
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: of the strongest arms in the league throwing it at you.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: That's just a tough spot to be in for them.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But the I would say it scares me a little
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: bit of green bait chat. I'm not gonna lie to
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: you that the fact that you just said that, because
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: they're a road dog and I know a really smart
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: group that likes Miami. That's for the simple thing we
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: talked about where Miami is a different team on the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: road than at home. We've seen at home, they've they've
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: blown out and dominated bad teams like they dominated Houston,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: they dominated Cleveland, dominated Patriots earlier in the year. I mean,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: they just played different at home. Um, this Miami team.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, that Green Bay number just
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: feels like a smart number. So that's that's what we
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: need to talk more about. I don't know, Okay, so
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: let's get into it. We'll talk about Cowboys and Eagles
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in a second. I that's a you know, highlighting, and
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: we gotta dig in. But yeah, I think in the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: middle of the year there were a bunch of times
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: where you and I got caught on what turned out
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: to be public dogs, and happened a lot with Jacksonville,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and I think if we were you know, we like
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to we like to self scout. I think it's a
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: really important process for anything you do in life, right,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: is to sort of understand where you've been, mistakes, you made,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: miss stakes, and then try to improve, especially important embedding.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I think we made a lot of mistakes with the Jaguars.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I think we got caught in the lines a couple
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: of times, and if we were to look back, we
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: would say the packers are in that then diagram of
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: road underdogs getting a lot of money that in the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: middle of the year scared us. But I don't think
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: that's the case this year, and we could have said
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: this week, we could have said the same about the Colts.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: UH the other day. I think the Jags, even though
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they were at home against the Cowboys, were similar. We're like,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: wait a second, there's a consensus building here that should
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: make us nervous. I'm not nervous about the Packers. I
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: think it's a really good matchup. Uh. The more I
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: look at it, you know, the more it feels like
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they're on the right side. I think some of the money,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: uh is reflective of the line opened at five and
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: a half. I got it at five and a half
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, you know, so it got down to three
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: and a half. Um. I think the I think the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Packers are ascended. I think their offense is better than
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: it's been at any point in a year. I think
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: their defense is better than it's been at any point
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: in a year. And I think the Dolphins have been
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: exposed a little bit careful now though I don't know
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: you're giving You're giving a lot of love the Green
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: bed also, look, I'm giving them a lot of love
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: in comparison to the Dolphins. Also, it's not gonna early
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: in the year. When some of these meltdowns happened, they
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: were almost literal meltdowns. It was a hundred degrees on
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the field, and teams are visiting, sidelines are in the sun.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: It's supposed to be cold in Miami, like relatively, So
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried about that circumstance. And the true fear
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: for me is um not that there are a sexy
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: dog with kind of like the My my favorite bets
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: we give chat on the show are the ones that
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: are never any people being like that's gross. I can't
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: get behind her. I hate that, Like the Colts Lastic
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: was perfect. I mean I put it on Twitter that morning,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: we were going to take it an test, and there's
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: never any roll in bets of like I literally cannot
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: do it. They're terrible, Like there's no reason to back
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: them here when it's just like simply like you just
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: say all the time where it's gross, it's disgusting. If
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you can't watch it, don't watch, just play the number.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: And that's mainly what we're doing here. So the Patriots
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: one is that this week, the amount of people I
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: reached out, we're just like, I can't get on board
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: with it. As soon as you drop the three all them,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: we're just like, damn, I wish I got the three
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: and a half, and that's that's kind of what we're
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: doing and where we missed on that Colts one, it's
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: not our fault, like we didn't know Nick Foles, who
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: hasn't practiced with the starters all season, was gonna step in.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: So that's one of those show where it's like, um again,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we wanna talk about the Colts
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: one where it's like I already bet it. I took
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the five again because I don't see it that much
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: of a downgrade of Nick Foles. That's a big deal.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: A guy is not practice all season. I stepping into
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: be a starter in week sixteen, um man, it's it's
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: a tough week with that where it's like same with
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, Like I thought we were getting good number
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: of five and a half. I was dead wrong. So
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: there are weeks like that we get caught. Uh, this
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Miami one, we definitely didn't. We got the four and
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a half, we got the four, went down of three
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: and half. I was feeling pretty good. Made sense why
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I went back up to four though, because I had
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: a bunch of pros that were like, well, Miami at home,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Miami's wide receivers against that green Bay defense. That's another
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: advantage to this green Uh this Miami's side, Like I
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: get where they're coming from. Aaron Rodgers in Florida historically
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: not good for him. He's not not performed well in Florida,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and get that angle these guys are saying. But like
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Chad just said, I don't know. I even with all
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the money, I'm I'm scared about it a little bit,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: But I just feel like we're getting a good number
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: with green Bay. It's four or four and a half
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: in the contest, I have to play a three and
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: a half. Maybe I can get talked off a bit,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: but at that key number of four and a half
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: in a game that I see being a one possession game,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: this feels like a one possession game. Two teams that
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: aren't that different. Like I just said, green Bay had
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: a terrible slump middle of the season. Miami Daltons didn't.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: They really ascended to the middle of the season. Their
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: slump has come these last couple of weeks. So that's
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the fear here is is Miami gonna try to flip it?
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Are they going to around here at the end of
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: the season, or is green Bay, who had been to
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the playoffs these last couple years. Who we know we're
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: getting from little floor, we know we're getting from Rogers.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Are they're gonna be able to figure out this rookie
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: coach where it seems like the league has figured it out,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Like the middle of the middle of the field is
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: a real thing. Like I'm taking that away. The Bills game,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I know that kind of threw things off because that
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: was such a winnable game for Miami, that was about
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: them in the run. That was like something they really
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: had him been doing. The Miami thing where they figure
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: out the run against the Bills. Yeah, if they figured
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that out, that's a huge issue for green Bay. They
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: cannot stop the run. So another thing to keep eye on.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Where not coming froble three and a half but a four,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: four and a half. Way more comfortable with green Bay.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: And that's fine, by the way, Like that could be
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: the band that we're talking about three and a half
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. And if it gets to
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: three and a half, we like Miami. If it's in
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the four to five range, we like the Packers. That's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: what we're talking about. Half point increments here. That's how
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: you make your money is on half point increments. People
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: don't get that, Like the difference isn't well, I only
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: like it at three and a half and I only
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: like it at five and a half. You've got to
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: be comfortable with the half points. Same thing with the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Patriots and the and the Bengals, And we can talk
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit more about that one, like it went
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: down from three and a half. Why did everybody like
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the Patriots at three and a half? As a wise guy,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: I could tell you because a lot of guys back
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the Bucks last week. We didn't, but a lot of
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: guys did. And if you look at the paper for
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: that game, the Bucks were better offensively, out gained him,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: and forget about the whole numbers or you know the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: gross yardage. Uh, because the Box in the second half
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: we're trying to rally, they beat a min yards per play.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Like the difference in that game was the turnovers and
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: that's an outlier. You can't depend on that um And
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: also we've liked the Box during this run, not so
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: much because Joe Burrow, because DJ Reader was back and
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that defensive line was playing so much better. He had
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a huge impack in that game. Uh. Trey Hendrickson injured
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: may or may not play. If he does, he'll be
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: playing with a club in his hand. Yeah, Sam Hubbard
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: injured an out like that defensive line was becoming a
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: real foundation for the Bengals. So I'm still comfortable with
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the paths at three and a half. Yeah, and another
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: classic spot chat of it's only gonna be pros betting
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the Patriots for fans of their show. It's no one
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the pol like we took every week. The public has
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: gotten so fat off the Bengals, they're just not going
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: to take turn their back on him. At this point.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: They three what a gift like there was got There's
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be wake up Sunday morning. They're gonna be a static.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have all that money in their counts stuff
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: from the week before, and they're gonna be like, well,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: here are the Bengals again. Another easy number. Give me
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: three against the Patriots team that I mean, let's face it,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: they've looked embarrassing in certain games. I mean that to
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: lose that game, I did think we're gonna get a
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: nice bump. I thought this would be maybe four. Um.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: The fact is that three. My only issue is it's
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the same thing with Tennessee and the Chargers. Last week,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: me and Chad talked about taking Tennessee. We love Tennessee.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: We thought that was a great number three three and
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: a half. It was two and a half in the contest,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: we avoided it. What happened, the game landed on three.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: So that's the same thing here where I love the
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Patriots at three three and a half, mainly three and
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: a half. It's two and a half. Just just just no,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: there's no play there. Because I make this number three.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: My value shifted to the Bengals. But I just feel
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: like this is a game they're gonna drop. Like it's Joe.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, we came to the year I put Joe
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: is my number three guy I wanted on my list
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: of if I needed a guy who just you know,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: needed a guy in a moment behind Josh Allen and
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: my homes, who did I want? And it was him,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: just in the fact that he is Joe, cool man.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Like they were down seventeen, nothing, didn't miss a beat
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: against that Bucks team, never got flustered, kept trust in
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the process. Like you just said, didn't have a good game,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: did not have a good game that offense, and I
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: have a good game but they capitalize on all those opportunities.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: I mean they get the ball on the red zone.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: They used to not you know, used not used to
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: kick field goals. Now they're scoring touchdowns. Man are they
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: do for letdown game? Like eleven and one at s
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: on a team that went to the Super Bowl last year?
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: That just doesn't happen. The books are smarter than that.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: So to me, you're getting a good number and in
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: a spot of them having a letdown spot. So if
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: you could still get the three and a half, of
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: course you have to grab that right now. If you
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: have the three, you can afford to wait. I honestly
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: would wait because I do know the public. They will
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: be coming in on the Bengals peak Bengals right now.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: It really is. It doesn't get higher than this, Like
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: it's like we rode the wave. It's one of those
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: teams that we just nailed, like we got we totally
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: since when they were about to start climbing, and now
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: it does feel like the time to get off. But
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about the Eagles cunlike last
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: week were last week I thought that emerchanm in six
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: with the Bucks. That's why I stayed away this week,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I made it literally three, so I was like, okay,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: three and a half, perfect number. Take the Patriots. It's
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: just funny where I don't feel an easy again since
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a two and a half, where I shouldn't like that,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: should just be playing both sides. But just something about
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: this game I just don't trust or Sinci. Before we
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: get to the Cowboys and the Eagles, I do want
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• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Colts for two seconds. It's my executive decision. When we
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: talked about it earlier in the week, you were like,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: if if you're not going to make it your exact decision,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: then it's going to be my assignment. Says I love
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: the cults it for. It doesn't matter to me who's
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: playing quarterback. Yeah, obviously, my biggest issue is the fact
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: that he hasn't been with the first team like that.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Like brock Purty, that was a big deal. This kid
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: had first team, not first team, but second team reps
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: all summer because he had Garoppolo holding out, and then
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: and as soon as trailance went down, he was back
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: in the training camp, back practicing with the team again.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Brock Purty. Nick Folis had the opposite of that. They
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: literally shunned them. They had him not in the facility
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: all the off season, and when they did bring him back, like, yeah,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: we'll put you on the practice squad and do whatever
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: we make our third stringer. What the hell was that
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: kids named Sam Ellinger Ellinger behind him behind him? The disrespect.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: So I love Nick. I know exactly what I'm getting
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: from Nick. He isn't the ultimate gamer. This is the
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: kind of guy you want to have in this game.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: So yes, I'll be taking the five guys. Well. I
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: will not be shocked if we get a total egg
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: laid by Nick Foles here, because it's just a lot
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to ask of a guy being you know, sat this
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: whole season not working out with these guys. But this
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: is like such a great matchup for him to come
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: into where discharge of defense cannot stop the run and
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: they have a bunch of injuries to their secondary, so
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: he'll be able to pass it. So the buy we
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: joked all the time by buying low, So that was
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: I guess. For the Colts, they now are down to
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: their third string quarterback after I mean, are you in
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the worst loss? So I don't even touch on I mean,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think of the human thing Matt Ryan.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Can you imagine if that's it of his career, That's
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that's literally how they're gonna do this guy, that his
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: end of his career is gonna end that way. That
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: was the first thing I thought of check because that
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: was the reason I loved this spot so much for
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the Colts, was like, this is a great bounceback spot
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: for Matt Ryan. That's gone now, Like there, I think
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: they're sticking him on the practice squrd wherever it is.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: He's off the team at this point, UM stow them
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: on it like like you just said, it's up the
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: five now. I can't pass on that value against the
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Chargers team that just plays close games, especially against the
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: cold team that plays colse games. I mean that's what
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: they've been all season. I mean, I'm trying to think
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: the blowout they had. It was a couple of weeks ago.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: What was that Dallas? That was a close game. I
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: mean that was like a twenty nineteen game. But scored
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: these before. They scored thirty points in the fourth quarter. Um,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: but we saw the following week the Colds team bounced
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: back and we made money on them that week. So
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: same thing here, Like we have a bunch of teams
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: we ride there rhythm this whole season. This is usually spot.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: We back the Colts at home in a primetime game
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: and it's good to us. So we could be stepping
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: in check because we have Nick Foles now and that
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: kind of screws with the numbers in the spot. But
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I can't avoid it. It's like one of those games
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I just have to play because I'm playing it all season.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: So if it's five in the contest, it's gonna be
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: hard for me and Chat not to take. That's a
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: great number in this matchup, so hard. I also, Nick
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Foles is a professional quarterback, right like, and not just
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: that professional backup quarterback. It's his job to come in
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: for a game or two, fit in with the system,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: make the right throws, make the right decisions, keep his
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: team in the game. You know better than anybody as
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: an Eagles fan. He's not a starting quarterback in the NFL,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: and that's when he gets exposed is when he's a
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: consistent starting quarterback. So I don't worry about his reps.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I don't worry about his time on the practice field.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: It's big dick, Nick, all right. We haven't done a
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: big balls, by the way, so and I'm feeling like
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: we might have to double up here because the Eagles
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: could end up being our big balls if we decided
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: we're staying on them even though they're also here. Simon says,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: I mean I have a couple like, there's there's two
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: games I could see. I could see there are big balls,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: But do you want to do the cow was Eagles first. Yeah,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: I thought, Stucky. I listened to the Action Network podcast
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: What's Up? Well, I'm gonna tell you Stucky in Raybon
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: do the Action Network podcast, they'll do the Sunday six pack,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: in which they each give their three best games. Stucky
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: loved the Cowboys. He feels like the Eagles are in
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: a spot where I'll quote, they don't want to show anything.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: They got half the roster not practicing this week. Um
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts officially out. It has the makings of a
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: game where they just want to put someone on the field,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: but they don't necessarily care if they win or lose.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Ah Gardner Minshew did not did not practice as much
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: this week because he was at Mike Leach's funeral. So
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: his take was that all the circumstances lead to the
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Cowboy aways minus four and a half. I mean, that's fair,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Like I ever heard the argument too, but it's just
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like it's Dallas week, Like
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: these players know how much Eagles fans absolutely hate the Cowboys,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: and you know, no shock they've heard all this stuff.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Like I mean, like just last week, Michael Parsons is
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: calling Hurts a system quarterback like that was real, and
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: guys got mad about that. They were making commidents about
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: it the week before even playing the Cowboys. So they're
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: getting ready for the Bears and they're talking about that. Um,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't see the Eagles overlooking this one. Uh.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: And it is technically a game we need. We need
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: to win this game to lock up the division and
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: be the one seat. So ah, to me, like we
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: already talked about, I loved I love the Cowboys in
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the spot because it was it was going to mean
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: more to them, especially after that loss in overtime. This
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: was gonna to be a great bounce back spot for
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys at home under a field goal. That to
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: me was all the value where you're like, we're catching
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: under a field goal, um deck that there is allowed
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: to prove. But what is this year? Seven for dec
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: and he's one in three in the playoffs. So they're
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: just they're just gonna be a lot more sense of
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: urgency with the Cowboys, Like I agree with him on
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: that where they were gonna be the hunger and more
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: desperate team, but with Hurts out, I just feel like
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: that's such a rallying point for this Eagles team and
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: not shocking. The public would be all over it because
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: we all thought it might be Hurts. So the money
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: you saw pouring in the last two days with all
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Eagles money, because the off chance of Hurts Wood is
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be in, you're getting a great number. Like the summer,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: we'll probably go down to three if it was a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: banged up Hurts playing this game, it's not so now
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: it's always back up to six. Obviously, we gave up
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: the bad number. That sucked. Um, that does happen. I mean,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: we're human. We make mistakes and that was one of those.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: That's out of our control. Uh six six and a
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, Chad, how do we pass on that?
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, you love that. So I agree with what's
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: stuck he's saying, But there's some parts of it where
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: it's like he should know better. He's a Ravens fan.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: The Ravens had a backup QB when they went down
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh. Did they kind of flown that one in
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Helen though they played even harder. And that's that's how
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like most teams they rally around that backup quarterback.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: It's just a rallying cry for the team. I will
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: tell you I have no fear of taking the Eagles
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: in this game. I listen to what stuck he said
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: on Action Network Pod. Don't disagree, but I feel like
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: the Eagles are a better coached, better all around team,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of pride, and I like, like Gardner Minshew
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: in one game, he's a fucking wild card. Man. You
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: take it at four and a half, though, I would
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: want to see what else is out there right like
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: we have we We'll see what the Bears numbers at.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: We'll see what the Pats numbers at. We haven't talked
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: about Washington. We'll see what the Packers number is at.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: You know who knows? Can we get Carolina at three? Um?
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Are we gonna be able to get me ton Soda
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: at three? Like, there's a couple of things that I
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: think we need to sort of see how things play out. Um.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Do you want to talk about the Washington game? Yeah?
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Because to me that might feel like a big balls
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: that is the big balls better the week taking myself,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't make that our Simon says, are foxible because
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: seven and a half it felt like that was gonna disappear,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and it did I mean that maybe, yeah, you can
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: maybe find it. But I could just see this number
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: going at six and a half, and that's exactly what
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: it should be in this matchup where yes, the Fortins
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: are the cream of the crop, They're one of the
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: better teams in football, but Washington is also a playoff team,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: and we've seen them kind of rallying these games where
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: then losing by eight points wherever that was against the Giants,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: that's like a blowout for Washington. They just this whole year,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: they've just been in these really close games. And we've
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: seen his whole career. Shanahan at home is a big favorite.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Struggles like for some reason, that's when he struggles, and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: it's always kind of been that way. So not surprising
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: that this is gonna be a pros versus joes. I mean,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: the public is going to be all over the forty niners.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: This is one of the most tease teams this week.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: It's one of the most money line that teams this week.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Shocked to no one. I love this game as an upset,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: just a total out of nowhere. Everyone's off Washington after
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: a bad primetime game. People are all in on the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: fourty nine Ers. They are. I mean they probably are
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: now the most beat team over these Niners. Yeah, just
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: because Hurts got hurt. I feel like people are gonna
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: come in now on the Niners because that that gives
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: them a little bit more confident, which is fair to me.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Like if Hurts is out for five weeks, he doesn't
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: plan until the first time he's in the playoffs, that's
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: a huge deal. So makes sense for all the love
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: of the forty Niners. But this is an exact time
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: this team has a letdown game. So uh, I wish
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: we had the seven and a half, would take it
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: down to six and a half. So I feel like
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: you can grab the seven right now. That's perfect for
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the big balls better the week, Uh pros Joe's you
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: said it's the bets on the nine or the money
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: on the Commander's Uh, I think you you made a
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: really good point. Kyle Shanahan as a big favorite at
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: home is almost an auto fade. And I don't have
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: the exact a t S record in front of me.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. I could say blah blah blah, blah
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: blah blah. Coming back to this week. This is a
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: a coach who when his teams have big leads. We've
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: seen it, and our big favorites. His decision making tends
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: to get a little more conservative, brilliant offensively, everyone knows.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I'm like a Kyle Shanahan, stand right. I love the guy.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: I think he's brilliant, but this is an achilles heel
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: for him these spots. Also, it's a low total, and
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I think when you have low totals at thirty eight
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: thirty eight and a half and you have a relatively
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: high side, in this case a touchdown or more, the
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: books are basically telegraphing take the underdog because they are
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: expecting the big money on the favorite. So and that's
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: the big the big best on the favorite. And that's
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing here, big balls better the week, Washington
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Commanders plus seven. Now have you bet anything along these
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: like small home teams like the Carolina Panthers catching two
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: and a half three at home? You touched that at all?
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I did not bet that. Instead, I bet the under
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: in that game. You touch Pittsburgh against Vegas has not
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: touched Pittsburgh Vegas at all because the entire oh it's
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: a two, now, so that was that was a split game.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I know a really smart group on Vegas. I told
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: them straight up, I love Pittsburgh here. I'm not gonna
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: throw in our contest. I respect these guys, but I
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: love this spot for Pittsburgh catching catching this Vegas team
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: outdoors in the cold. I don't know, just feels are
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: a great spot to back this Pittsburgh team, especially the
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: way that that Vegas just won that game. Um, I
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: don't know, I liked it. Just shocked to hear that
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: a really smart group was heavy on the Raiders. Now
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: that was at plus three. It's down to plus two
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: at the books now. But I don't know, I just
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: thought I just thought it was interesting that would be
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: so willing to back that team when we know it's
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: going to be like whatever it is minus six in Pittsburgh. Um,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: we'll see if these Desert boys are built for it,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: because I know the Pittsburgh guys Historically, usually Pittsburgh defense
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: kind of rallies at home in these kind of games.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: So interesting to hear the pros like Vegas in the
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: spot the bets on not all of the bets on
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, buttent of the money on the Steelers. Yeah,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: that's what I thought. This was the pro spot for Steelers.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: So I just just letting people know this is more split.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: This is why we went have it in there, just
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: because I respect the hell of these guys. I just
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: know if they're taking a position that they know something
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: going on behind closed doors that I don't. Well, we
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: got to make a scooter. Let call here. When all
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: hope is lost, all this left is relief. Well, let's
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: play normally, Simon says, an exact decision are two of
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: the leading indicators for which way we'll lean. But you
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: know you had the Eagles, and Simon says, and I
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: had the Colts and exact decision. I think I won
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: screwtroulette last week, so I get to go first. I'm
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: taking Washington plus seven. Smart is because I think of
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: the games that I liked the most and that i've
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: already bet this week, it's the only one where the
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: number is still the same, right, Because I would also
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: take the Packers, but I got him at five and
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: a half. I would take the Bears, but I got
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: him at nine and a half. Like those numbers are
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: so far gone. Washington plus seven we've liked all week,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: So that's mine. What's yours? Uh? Yeah, I hate it.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: Because like they got the numbers are just moving, Like
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: I really wanted Patriots at three, but I just hate pushes.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Why don't you take the Steelers of minus two? Who?
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Because that's what a smart person went doing. I'm smart.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Oh fuck it, I mean it's I'm in on it.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: It just sucks at such a ship number. But I
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: fucking love this spot. Give me the Panthers plus two
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: and a half. Wow, yeah, a little bit off reservation.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: It's not one of my bigger bets this week. I'm
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: just I'm trying to think of one game do I
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: just acotlutely hate the most because I just love the
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: lines and it's just gotta be the This gotta be
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: the right side. Like this is such a trap line.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: That is I'm fading myself. Even when you are a professional,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: there is there is no amount of professionalism or confidence
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: that uh self loathing can't can't come into play. All right,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: this is what is our money line? Round Robin Parlay?
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Right now? Oh man, Mitchell, so right, how did I
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: take Steelers after our our guy Franco passed away? Okay,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: that really is the play. Look one of us on
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: this podcast, Matt Mitchell Simon Hunter. Best Selling author Chad
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Melman wrote a best selling book about the Steelers and
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: the cowboys arrivalry in the seventies and how it not
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: just represented the changing NFL at the time, but also
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: the changing sociology, psychology, and um reflection of American values
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: at the time, because the Steelers were the blue collar
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: team they believed in hard nosed living, and the Cowboys
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: were the fancy team from a city that was growing
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: out of the desert, gleaming office towers, home of Texas instruments,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: representing a new world order steeped in computing. The Steelers
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: were representing the old world steeped in the Industrial Revolution.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Melman wrote that book it was the best seller. I
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: would say to that without the immacu the Imaica reception,
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: football is probably half as popular as it is. Totally
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: agree Like that was one of those like people talked
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: about it for years and years and years just because
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: it was just such a polarizing play. So I always
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: put that in the name of you know, calling his
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: shot super Bowl. Those are the two big spark plugs
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: to me for the NFL where it's like you can
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: trace back all the history and everything like that, But
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: those are the two plays that people talked about forever, right,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: I mean they're still talking about it. What was it?
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: It's the fifty anniversary this weekend. This weekend is the
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: fifty if they have a big celebration plan in Pittsburgh.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Prior to Franco Harris dying, this was all planned, So
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: something happened before I was even alive. I can close
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: my eyes right now and see it frame for frame.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: That's how often they showed that clip. So it's just
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: it's just crazy to think how historically impactful that play was. Look,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: if people want to go by the ones who hit
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: the artist the hardest by Chad Milman, best selling book
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: for the Holidays, this can be the time to honor
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Frank o'harris, who I met with for the book and
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: couldn't have been nicer. By the way, a little more
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Millman history there. I was supports illustrated. I wrote about
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: his super Donut company. It comes full circle, comes full
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: circle when when it's about Chad. Yeah, Chad Millman wrote
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: a book. Alright, let's what's around Robin Dog, Your dog,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Your dog blocks dog? All right, let's start off with
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: our boys. The Patriots pulled the upset. Give me the Panthers.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Detroit, but that came just stinks. We don't
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: care anymore. We already got Detroit over six and a
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: half twins backs. Um, I'm trying to what's a good
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: big dog for us? I mean, Atlanta's tempting, just because
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: the Ravens right now have no quarterbacks practicing this week,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: like the backup to Lamar is not practicing. Lamar still
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: in our practicing. Who would you rather throw him for
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the big dog? Mem or the commanders at lanter A, Commanders, commanders, commanders,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: we'll throw them in. Gotta go with the Eagles at
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: this big of a number. Um, and of course our Darling,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: our team we love this week the public road dog
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: give me green back? All right, I'll go slow so
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Matt can put it in the chat for the Ampers
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: money line round robin, Patriots, Panthers, Commanders, Eagles, Packers. Here's
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the full lineup, going slow, Foxhall Pats plus three and
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: a half. Simon says Eagles plus five and a half.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Exact decision was Cults plus four. That is now up
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: to five with Nick Foles News Big Balls Washington plus seven.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Scoot Roulette Washington, plus seven for Chad Carolina plus two
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: and a half for Simon. We got a whole host
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: of leans right now, we're waiting forgotten My Christmas had
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: this whole episode bron We like the Bears, we like
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the Paths, we like Washington, we like the Packers, we
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: like the Eagles. Where could be talking about Carolina on Sunday?
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I got a feeling, um, so please please please check
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: the Action Network out, follow the phase five. That's what
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: you get. Our final lineup for our final five for
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: the contest will put posted Sunday at noon. Let's do it. Listen.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I want everyone to have an incredible holiday weekend. We
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: of course are so appreciative that everybody listens, that everyone
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: rates and reviews and subscribes and gives feedback to me
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: and Simon and Matt Mitchell. I can't do without you
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: guys listening. Uh you are our gifts. Thank you for
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter. I'm Chad Millman. Download us
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast, rate, review,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: subscribe it was five stars. Say whatever. Want feedback as gift?
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Until next time? I love you, h Action Network reminds
• 45:10
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• 45:13
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