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Applied Sensemaking: Venezuela — Why Simple Explanations Fail
Most explanations about Venezuela fall into two stories:
• "They removed a bad guy."
• "This will lead to cheaper gas."
Both sound plausible. Neither survives a dicussion about how oil markets, geopolitics, and incentives work. Let's examine the mechanics underneath the story:
How "bad actor" narratives simplify a complex structural conflict
How oil prices are set and why Venezuela's oil won't lower gas prices
Why strategic alignment, precedent, and rule-setting matter more than bad actor behavior and pump prices
This is not a defense of any government or leader, and it does not minimize real…
The skinny
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