Latest / Toadstool Sports / Cubs/Brewers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 7/30/25

Transcript

Cubs/Brewers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 7/30/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:11
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:15
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
0:17
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:20
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
0:25
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
0:29
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
0:34
Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached into pink. Actually,
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man, I don't know
0:42
Speaker 1: what is going on with the Bruins. March eight, Is
0:46
Speaker 1: that what it is? I don't even know it's it's
0:47
Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
0:51
Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. But I don't even
0:53
Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
0:56
Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
0:59
Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
1:03
Speaker 1: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not go
1:07
Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
1:10
Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
1:13
Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
1:15
Speaker 1: the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
1:21
Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
1:24
Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
1:33
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. Feel like
1:37
Speaker 1: ass right now, very tired, no sleep. This is better
1:40
Speaker 1: off dead. I feel like I am dead right now.
1:43
Speaker 1: This is Wednesday, July whatever the thirtieth is out? What
1:47
Speaker 1: it is? Dude? Oh my god? One to oh and
1:50
Speaker 1: one on the show yesterday, Right, we got the WNBA
1:54
Speaker 1: game right with the Golden State Valkyries. They had the
1:58
Speaker 1: lead for a lot of the game. I believe it
2:01
Speaker 1: was actually tied at halftime. They took another lead. I'd
2:03
Speaker 1: think they were gonna win the game pretty easily in
2:05
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. Blew the lead they had. In the
2:07
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, A dildo got thrown out to the court,
2:10
Speaker 1: a green doldo. People may have seen that out there.
2:14
Speaker 1: There are a lot of videos and pictures of that
2:17
Speaker 1: on Twitter X. I don't I don't even know who
2:20
Speaker 1: did that or why they did that, but well I
2:23
Speaker 1: kind of know why but it was a dildo trick man.
2:26
Speaker 1: A WNBA player finally made three shots in a game,
2:30
Speaker 1: but the Valkyrie still wound up getting out of there
2:32
Speaker 1: with the outright win. So not only did they cover,
2:34
Speaker 1: which was an easy cover, but the money line at
2:37
Speaker 1: play was also a winner on that And then the
2:40
Speaker 1: under in the Dodgers Reds game was a push. I
2:43
Speaker 1: gave out the full game under which luckily it wasn't
2:46
Speaker 1: the first five under. I did like the starting pitching matchup,
2:49
Speaker 1: but the game would have gone over in the first
2:50
Speaker 1: five inn it was a full game. It landed right
2:52
Speaker 1: on the nine, and that was with a run being scored,
2:56
Speaker 1: the game tying run actually in the top of the eighth,
2:58
Speaker 1: So I mean that game that run needed to be scored,
3:01
Speaker 1: so luckily it did not go into extra innings or
3:04
Speaker 1: anything like that. Jay Mane, what's up man? Thanks for
3:07
Speaker 1: hanging out again. Uh, there's something weird with the comments here.
3:10
Speaker 1: The comments are all overlapping now so I can't click
3:13
Speaker 1: on the right one. Patrick, what's up? I still don't
3:17
Speaker 1: get this crown thing? Man? Uh you drop seven reno
3:21
Speaker 1: for Bergier berg Air. Yeah, I mean still I stand
3:27
Speaker 1: by never wanting to play seven Reno at home. I mean,
3:30
Speaker 1: maybe starting to turn it around. But you're you're following
3:35
Speaker 1: my plays, all right, Well that that puts more pressure
3:37
Speaker 1: on me. Man, don't blame me. But today I am. Uh,
3:40
Speaker 1: I am gonna have two plays today, both in the MLB.
3:43
Speaker 1: I got a full game total, I believe, in a
3:47
Speaker 1: full game side. Is that what I have? I haven't
3:48
Speaker 1: been entered them into the system yet. Let me see. Yeah,
3:52
Speaker 1: I believe that's right. Hold on, let me enter these
3:55
Speaker 1: in first and then all because I'm gonna get to
3:56
Speaker 1: them in the best Bets segment. Yeah, full game total,
3:59
Speaker 1: full games. I like how I already forget what the
4:02
Speaker 1: plays are. Isn't that That's great? I really I have
4:06
Speaker 1: a lot of focus this morning, man. Yeah, all right,
4:10
Speaker 1: let me get this in full game total. Yeah. I
4:13
Speaker 1: mean you have to pay a little bit of a
4:14
Speaker 1: price up for that one. Not much, but a little bit. Emily,
4:17
Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out? Yeah, solo to everybody
4:23
Speaker 1: his last home game? Yeah, I mean he's had two
4:26
Speaker 1: decent home games in a row. I guess now for
4:28
Speaker 1: seven Reno, maybe he's actually trending in the right direction somehow. Andrew,
4:33
Speaker 1: what's up? Man, Yeah, there's no more Tower gangs, so
4:36
Speaker 1: it's total gang now WNBA. We do have a couple
4:39
Speaker 1: of games here today which I'm not gonna recommend to
4:41
Speaker 1: play in any of these. We do have Phoenix at Indiana.
4:44
Speaker 1: Phoenix is laying points on the road here. They're down
4:47
Speaker 1: from three and a half to three. Caitlin Clark is
4:50
Speaker 1: still not playing. I mean, I have no idea what
4:52
Speaker 1: she's gonna come back, so she's not there for Indiana. Indiana,
4:56
Speaker 1: they are coming off of beating Chicago on the road,
4:59
Speaker 1: a very short road trip though to Chicago. Now they're
5:01
Speaker 1: returning home from that. I mean, not really a horrible
5:05
Speaker 1: spot really for Indiana, so they may actually show up
5:07
Speaker 1: focus for this game. Phoenix is a team with a
5:10
Speaker 1: pretty good record that has been playing fairly well, or
5:14
Speaker 1: they were until they dropped three straight games, but it
5:16
Speaker 1: was basically against the three best teams in the league Minnesota, Atlanta,
5:20
Speaker 1: New York, and they turned it around and won against Washington,
5:23
Speaker 1: not a very good Washington team. They are playing a
5:26
Speaker 1: third straight road game now though, so the spot to
5:28
Speaker 1: me actually doesn't look quite as good for Phoenix, So
5:31
Speaker 1: I guess I have a slight agreement with that line
5:33
Speaker 1: moved downward, but that is not going to be a play.
5:36
Speaker 1: None of these are Atlanta at Dallas. Of course, I
5:39
Speaker 1: faded Atlanta yesterday. That was a win Golden State with
5:42
Speaker 1: the low scoring two point outright victory there after the
5:47
Speaker 1: dildo was thrown out to the court in the Tide
5:49
Speaker 1: game when it was seventy five to seventy five. Atlanta
5:53
Speaker 1: now going to Dallas on a back to back travel
5:56
Speaker 1: plus no time off doesn't seem like a great spot
5:58
Speaker 1: to me. Man for Hannah no rest there though, they
6:02
Speaker 1: are coming off a loss. But it's not a good
6:03
Speaker 1: spot for Dallas either because they just beat last year's
6:07
Speaker 1: champion at New York Liberty, who are still one of
6:09
Speaker 1: the best teams this year. So I mean, they're not
6:12
Speaker 1: gonna be unfocused because they know Atlanta is also a
6:14
Speaker 1: good team coming into their place, but they are coming
6:16
Speaker 1: off a big win, so it's possible Dallas isn't able
6:19
Speaker 1: to kind of keep up that effort. Two games in
6:21
Speaker 1: a row. The line has dropped towards Dallas though, from
6:25
Speaker 1: five and a half to four here on Atlanta, so
6:28
Speaker 1: the movement line movement towards Dallas, I still don't necessarily
6:31
Speaker 1: disagree with that. I would not want to. I still
6:33
Speaker 1: would not want to play Dallas in kind of a
6:35
Speaker 1: letdown spot there though, or hangover spot, whatever you want
6:39
Speaker 1: to call it. And the New York Liberty are at Minnesota, man,
6:42
Speaker 1: So we actually have the two best teams in the
6:44
Speaker 1: league are playing each other here in Minnesota. Favored by
6:48
Speaker 1: quite a bit, they're down from me and a half
6:49
Speaker 1: to seven. I don't know if there's like an injury
6:51
Speaker 1: issue there, because that line does seem big to me.
6:54
Speaker 1: Let me see, looks like we do have some injury
6:57
Speaker 1: situations here for the Liberty here some amount of an
7:01
Speaker 1: injury situation. Stewart looks like she's a game time decision,
7:06
Speaker 1: so that's gonna be something to keep in mind. I
7:08
Speaker 1: guess if you're looking at this game, this game will
7:11
Speaker 1: be revenge from Minnesota because this is the rematch from
7:14
Speaker 1: last year's finals, which I think Minnesota got screwed by
7:17
Speaker 1: the refs in the finals, not just because I had
7:19
Speaker 1: Minnesota winning in my bracket, but I thought that was
7:22
Speaker 1: just bullshit, man. So Minnesota probably should have won the
7:25
Speaker 1: championship last year. They did not, and they have not
7:28
Speaker 1: played the Liberty since then. So this is a pretty
7:30
Speaker 1: big revenge spot from Minnesota. Man, so I think they're
7:33
Speaker 1: certainly gonna want to come in and win this game.
7:35
Speaker 1: They're laying seven and a half, which I think to
7:37
Speaker 1: the public eye, or eight, even to the public eye,
7:40
Speaker 1: it might look like too big a number. Man. You're
7:42
Speaker 1: talking about the two best teams in the league. Everybody
7:44
Speaker 1: knows New York beat Minnesota last year. Even though Minnesota
7:47
Speaker 1: has the better record and is the better team this year.
7:50
Speaker 1: Still the public, if they look at this, might be thinking, well,
7:54
Speaker 1: it just I mean, it looks so easy to take
7:55
Speaker 1: the liberty plus the points, right, Like a game between
7:59
Speaker 1: the top two teams in the league, you tend to
8:00
Speaker 1: not want to lay points like this, like it seems
8:02
Speaker 1: like it should be a closer game than that. So
8:05
Speaker 1: I'd be slightly leaning to the Minnesota Aside for all
8:07
Speaker 1: those reasons, the revenge plus the line just looks a
8:10
Speaker 1: little odd. As far as the situation, Minnesota is coming
8:14
Speaker 1: off a loss and not traveling, staying home after that
8:17
Speaker 1: loss upset loss to Atlanta, so that is also a
8:21
Speaker 1: positive for Minnesota because the one to bounce back from
8:23
Speaker 1: that liberty. Though they're coming off two ugly losses as well.
8:27
Speaker 1: They're playing a second straight road game, but they're gonna
8:29
Speaker 1: show up in this game focused as well. So it's
8:32
Speaker 1: a slight lean to me for Minnesota. I think that's
8:34
Speaker 1: probably the best lean of the day in college basketball.
8:37
Speaker 1: But the line has dropped on that actually, down from
8:40
Speaker 1: eight and a half to seven. Now. It looks like
8:41
Speaker 1: I guess maybe I already said that, But yeah, I
8:44
Speaker 1: mean I would still lean that way, though maybe the
8:46
Speaker 1: line is moving just because maybe there's Stewart injury news.
8:50
Speaker 1: I'm not even really sure I'll follow it well enough,
8:52
Speaker 1: but I look for the spots man. So yeah, Minnesota, Yeah,
8:59
Speaker 1: the crow. Mountain dew, Oh yeah. It's hard to tell
9:02
Speaker 1: them when it says, oh, this is a lemon lime soda.
9:05
Speaker 1: You gotta look at the color of the soda itself. Though.
9:08
Speaker 1: If it's a sprite, you know, knockoff, then it's gonna
9:12
Speaker 1: be clear most likely, and if it's mountain dew, it's
9:14
Speaker 1: gonna be green. Yeah, I mean it sounds good, though.
9:18
Speaker 1: I like mountain. I actually prefer mountain dew to sprite.
9:20
Speaker 1: But that's because I like to, you know, I like
9:24
Speaker 1: to just just like slam caffeine twenty four to seven
9:29
Speaker 1: pretty much. So that's why I like Mountain Dew. Let's
9:31
Speaker 1: go to w w NBA. Let's get off of the
9:34
Speaker 1: w NBA. We'll do all the baseball run down here.
9:38
Speaker 1: I'm putting the graphic in whenever I feel like it. Now,
9:42
Speaker 1: all right, it's Major League Baseball today. We have afternoon
9:45
Speaker 1: games today because some of these series are gonna be
9:47
Speaker 1: ending and teams are gonna have to travel potentially start
9:52
Speaker 1: a new series tomorrow. We got Toronto at Baltimore. Toronto
9:57
Speaker 1: is actually on a slide now, man. Baltimore has actually
10:00
Speaker 1: won five games in a row, including all three games
10:03
Speaker 1: in this series against Toronto. Baltimore also put up double
10:06
Speaker 1: digit run totals in the first two games and then
10:08
Speaker 1: didn't in the third game, which was the second of
10:12
Speaker 1: the double header yesterday, but still won. Both of these
10:15
Speaker 1: teams played double you know, they played a double header yesterday,
10:18
Speaker 1: So the bullpens are probably not in the greatest rest
10:22
Speaker 1: shape here. I mean, we can look at the chart here.
10:24
Speaker 1: Baltimore actually did only use three or four of their
10:27
Speaker 1: relief pitchers across the two games yesterday, but still Toronto
10:31
Speaker 1: actually somehow managed to only use three. Looks like maybe
10:34
Speaker 1: they just brought in long relief men, which makes sense
10:36
Speaker 1: because they got absolutely annihilated in the first game. Toronto,
10:39
Speaker 1: I think, is gonna come into this game with some fever, though,
10:42
Speaker 1: with some you know, fervor, I mean, because they don't
10:46
Speaker 1: want to get swept at Baltimore. Man. So I think
10:48
Speaker 1: Toronto is gonna be motivated here. But Toronto is on
10:51
Speaker 1: a bad slide right now. Man. So if you like
10:53
Speaker 1: Toronto to take this one, you're gonna be fading a
10:55
Speaker 1: couple of streaks here. I'm given to the bullpen situation.
11:00
Speaker 1: Both teams kind of are unrested somewhat with the bullpens.
11:03
Speaker 1: Toronto gets the bullpen edge. Toronto has the better bullpen.
11:06
Speaker 1: Toronto does have the better offense as well. On the surface,
11:09
Speaker 1: I would say they have the better starting pitcher as well,
11:12
Speaker 1: with Barrios three point eight three ERA one point two
11:15
Speaker 1: five whip. He's better on the road as well, three
11:19
Speaker 1: point three ERA. In the road. He hasn't been as
11:22
Speaker 1: good this month though. He's kind of sliding a little bit,
11:24
Speaker 1: even though Toronto's won a lot of games. I've won
11:27
Speaker 1: four out of his five this month. They've won what
11:30
Speaker 1: is this nine of his last eleven starts, I believe
11:32
Speaker 1: is what that is. They've won. They're winning behind Barrios.
11:35
Speaker 1: He's not allowing a ton of runs, but this month
11:38
Speaker 1: he still does have a six point one two ERA
11:40
Speaker 1: and nineteen to seven strike a walk ratio, and I
11:43
Speaker 1: don't like either of those statistics. I'm a little bit
11:46
Speaker 1: concerned about Barrios's current form. His numbers are not good
11:51
Speaker 1: against Baltimore either, not a huge one hundred and eighty
11:53
Speaker 1: eight at bat sample size three h nine batting average
11:57
Speaker 1: against him in nine ten ops. So that's not very good.
12:01
Speaker 1: So I don't I actually don't trust Barrios in this spot, man,
12:05
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna recommend that that actual play there.
12:09
Speaker 1: I don't know what you guys are wait, I'm trying
12:11
Speaker 1: to keep u what should I do? I'm trying to
12:14
Speaker 1: keep up with the chat here. I'm not sure what
12:17
Speaker 1: what you're saying I should do. But all right, Dean
12:20
Speaker 1: Creamer pitching for Baltimore. I mean, he's a guy I
12:22
Speaker 1: don't really like either. Four point two three e r A,
12:25
Speaker 1: one point two five whip mediocre numbers. He is better
12:29
Speaker 1: at home, though, two point six five e r A
12:31
Speaker 1: at home. He's been way better at home this month.
12:34
Speaker 1: He's been okay with a four point seven r a
12:36
Speaker 1: twenty one to seven strike a walk ratio. Did allow
12:41
Speaker 1: five runs last time out at home against a bad
12:43
Speaker 1: Rockies lineup, though, and he's walked five guys over the
12:46
Speaker 1: last two starts, so he maybe is starting to kind
12:48
Speaker 1: of come back out of form a little bit again
12:51
Speaker 1: against Toronto. His numbers are not very good in one
12:55
Speaker 1: hundred at bats, two to eighty batting average, eight oh
12:58
Speaker 1: five ops, so that's not great either. So I'm gonna look,
13:03
Speaker 1: probably been leaning towards the over in this game, Man,
13:05
Speaker 1: and it looks like some of the money has come
13:07
Speaker 1: in on that. The totals at nine, and it's headed
13:10
Speaker 1: towards ten or nine and a half, excuse me, and
13:12
Speaker 1: headed towards ten. With all that juice on the over there,
13:15
Speaker 1: the money seems to be agreeing with the over. Sixty tickets,
13:18
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of cash on the over. That's the
13:20
Speaker 1: way I would go with Man. With both Bullpends being
13:23
Speaker 1: a bit unrested right now and not trusting either starting pitcher.
13:28
Speaker 1: They're both starting pitchers don't have good matchup numbers. That's
13:31
Speaker 1: not one of my plays, but I lean over, you
13:34
Speaker 1: want going to go on NDS. I mean that might happen.
13:38
Speaker 1: They certainly know me. They can invite me on if
13:41
Speaker 1: they want, I will come on. I don't know what
13:43
Speaker 1: I would talk about, though, Arizona at Detroit. Detroit got
13:47
Speaker 1: another win yesterday, so they're on the verge of I
13:49
Speaker 1: guess sweeping the series. I don't know how many of
13:51
Speaker 1: these series are continuing into tomorrow though, but they've won
13:54
Speaker 1: the first two games in the series by a combined
13:56
Speaker 1: score of seventeen to three. So this once formidable hour
14:00
Speaker 1: Zona lineup is really falling apart now. I don't think
14:04
Speaker 1: it's just because Naylor is out of there. I think
14:06
Speaker 1: it's just the whole thing. You know, like Arizona just
14:10
Speaker 1: might be in a bad mental state because they know
14:12
Speaker 1: they're now giving up on the season, basically selling at
14:15
Speaker 1: the All Star at the excuse me, the trade deadline.
14:17
Speaker 1: So it seems like Arizona is just in a bad
14:20
Speaker 1: mental state right now. Arizona has the worst bullpen, although
14:23
Speaker 1: they haven't seen a lot of bullpen usage over the
14:25
Speaker 1: last couple of days. Detroit has seen more bullpen usage,
14:29
Speaker 1: but generally they have the better bullpen. So still probably
14:34
Speaker 1: give Detroit a slight bullpen edge here, Arizona still has
14:38
Speaker 1: the offensive edge. Detroit's offense has actually been pretty bad
14:41
Speaker 1: since the All Star break, and for the starting pitching.
14:43
Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson is pitching for the Diamondbacks. Good numbers on
14:47
Speaker 1: the season. Ya, I'm gonna talk about my faith Christianity.
14:51
Speaker 1: I could do that. I mean, I'm sure I am
14:53
Speaker 1: not of the same vein of Christianity probably that they are.
14:58
Speaker 1: But Nelson, I mean, his numbers are good on the season.
15:02
Speaker 1: Three point two ninety RA, one point oh two WHIP.
15:05
Speaker 1: I still have never really trusted Nelson, and I still
15:08
Speaker 1: don't really. He's not great on the road four point
15:11
Speaker 1: eight nine road ERA, so that's way higher than his
15:13
Speaker 1: RA at home. He is doing well for Arizona as
15:16
Speaker 1: of late, though, I mean they've won seven of his
15:19
Speaker 1: last eight stars this month a two point three five ERA,
15:23
Speaker 1: although fourteen to seven strike a walk ratio. Mostly that's
15:26
Speaker 1: a low strikeout rate. I mean, he doesn't strike out
15:28
Speaker 1: a lot of guys, or at least he isn't this month,
15:32
Speaker 1: but his numbers are fairly good. Other than that, overall,
15:35
Speaker 1: his numbers against Detroit, however, are not good. In thirty
15:38
Speaker 1: four bats, three point fifty three batting average, nine to
15:41
Speaker 1: forty eight ohps. So Nelson home road splits are bad.
15:45
Speaker 1: Numbers against Detroit are bad, so he could potentially get
15:48
Speaker 1: lit up in this game. Chris Paddock is pitching for
15:51
Speaker 1: Detroit and he is now the latest new arrival for
15:56
Speaker 1: Detroit because Minnesota just trade and I'm I'm not really
16:00
Speaker 1: sure this is a great ad for Detroit, to be honest.
16:03
Speaker 1: I mean, he doesn't have good numbers this year four
16:05
Speaker 1: point nine to five R, one point two eight whip.
16:07
Speaker 1: We'll see if he gets excited to play on a
16:09
Speaker 1: contender now in Detroit, though I don't know, man, after
16:13
Speaker 1: all these years playing against Detroit, he is now basically
16:17
Speaker 1: joined the endemy and this will be his first start
16:19
Speaker 1: as a member of the Detroit Tigers. His era home
16:23
Speaker 1: and away, he has been better at home, although that
16:25
Speaker 1: was at Minnesota's ballpark four point three four era. We'll
16:28
Speaker 1: see what he could do with Detroit this month. He
16:31
Speaker 1: actually has a really good twenty to three strike a
16:34
Speaker 1: walk ratio, but in Minnesota lost a ton of his
16:37
Speaker 1: recent starts. Minnesota has lost what is this nine twelve
16:41
Speaker 1: of his last fourteen starts if I did that right,
16:44
Speaker 1: trying to eyeball that Minnesota lost a lot of his
16:47
Speaker 1: recent starts. He did have a six ERA this month,
16:50
Speaker 1: or he does despite that really good strike a walk ratio,
16:53
Speaker 1: giving up a lot of hits, a lot of home
16:55
Speaker 1: runs twenty eight hits and twenty one innings four home
16:58
Speaker 1: runs this month. Starts where he give up five plus
17:02
Speaker 1: earned runs not a good sign, even though he is
17:04
Speaker 1: coming off his one of his best starts of the
17:07
Speaker 1: year against the Dodgers, so he does still have that
17:09
Speaker 1: in him sometimes. So maybe he's coming back into form.
17:12
Speaker 1: I don't know. And Minnesota got rid of him after that.
17:15
Speaker 1: After he won, he gave a one run to the
17:17
Speaker 1: Dodgers and they still actually lost that game was not
17:20
Speaker 1: his fault. With eight strikeouts in one walk as well.
17:24
Speaker 1: Numbers against the d Backs thirty two at bats sample
17:27
Speaker 1: size three twelve average allowed. But seven o eight oh
17:30
Speaker 1: ps isn't that bad. Seven to one strike a walk
17:33
Speaker 1: raight sios. He's been okay against them, So Paddock, I
17:36
Speaker 1: guess has the matchup numbers in his favor a little bit.
17:40
Speaker 1: But to me, I don't really trust him. I don't
17:42
Speaker 1: trust either starting pitcher in this one, man, So I'm
17:44
Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards an over in this one as well.
17:46
Speaker 1: And the totals flip from nine juice to the under
17:49
Speaker 1: to nine juice to the over. It's a high total.
17:51
Speaker 1: Arizona's bullpen's not good. I mean, Detroit's at least has
17:55
Speaker 1: seen some usage. Don't like either start or really, so
17:57
Speaker 1: over will probably be the way that I would lean
18:00
Speaker 1: in this game more than anything else. Money seems like
18:03
Speaker 1: it is coming in on Arizona. Detroit down for minus
18:05
Speaker 1: one twenty eight to minus one twenty six, sixty eight
18:08
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on Detroit, but sixty eight percent
18:10
Speaker 1: of the cash on Arizona. So there is kind of
18:13
Speaker 1: a market read on the Arizona side there. So I
18:17
Speaker 1: guess take from that what you will. They ended up
18:22
Speaker 1: at a crazy Pentecostal church, all right, I forget what
18:26
Speaker 1: the Pentecostal is really doing. I mean, that is not my,
18:28
Speaker 1: uh my flavor of Christianity. It's not my denomination. Women's sports, Yeah,
18:39
Speaker 1: men are really good at women's sports. Man Kirby Pucket,
18:43
Speaker 1: he was a He was an awesome player, Man Kirby Puckett.
18:46
Speaker 1: I was a fan of him. Speaking of the Minnesota Twins.
18:49
Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking about them right now. We just
18:51
Speaker 1: talked about them because they traded with Chris Paddock. But
18:53
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins are playing my Boston Red Sox here.
18:58
Speaker 1: Red Sox won yesterday to even up the series at
19:00
Speaker 1: one apiece. Red Sox didn't use a ton of their
19:05
Speaker 1: relief staff yesterday, though overall they've had a lot of
19:08
Speaker 1: bullpen usage last few days. Some of their better relievers
19:11
Speaker 1: are still available today, though Minnesota does have the worst
19:15
Speaker 1: of the two bullpens generally, although some light usage or
19:17
Speaker 1: actually not light usage. I clicked on the wrong team,
19:19
Speaker 1: my mistake. They used four relievers yesterday as well, so
19:23
Speaker 1: they've had somewhat heavy bullpen usage recently as well. So
19:26
Speaker 1: I think you still give the bullpen edge to the
19:27
Speaker 1: Red Sox similar usage and the significantly better bullpen on
19:31
Speaker 1: the side of the Red Sox. Starting pitching Brian Bao
19:35
Speaker 1: for the Red Sox basically is completely turning a season
19:38
Speaker 1: around as it stands right now. Three point three two ERA,
19:41
Speaker 1: one point two eight whip. I mean, I'm a hard
19:44
Speaker 1: man to please use, especially when it comes from it
19:47
Speaker 1: comes to the team that I root for, but Bao
19:50
Speaker 1: is actually starting to pitch way better. I'm becoming a
19:52
Speaker 1: Bao believer, a Brian Bao believer, you know, BBB three
19:57
Speaker 1: point one to three ERA this month of the twenty
19:59
Speaker 1: seven five strike out walk ratios, his walk rate, he's
20:03
Speaker 1: gotten it way down, which is a really good sign.
20:06
Speaker 1: So he is actually pitching quite well. He's coming off
20:08
Speaker 1: a decent start against the Dodgers. I mean it was
20:11
Speaker 1: nothing to really scoff at Dodgers and Cubs. I mean,
20:13
Speaker 1: those are two pretty difficult offenses to face. So he
20:16
Speaker 1: now gets to face an easier offense to face than
20:18
Speaker 1: those two in Minnesota. And he's done really well against Minnesota.
20:22
Speaker 1: In thirty five career bats, only five hits against him,
20:25
Speaker 1: one of them is a Jeffers home run, but still
20:27
Speaker 1: he has a twelve one strike out walk ratio against them,
20:30
Speaker 1: So the walks have not been a number. There hasn't
20:34
Speaker 1: been a huge number of walks from him against them.
20:36
Speaker 1: One forty three batting average, a lot of four to
20:38
Speaker 1: fifty two ol ps, so you get basically dominant numbers
20:42
Speaker 1: from Bao against Minnesota, so that looks good for him.
20:45
Speaker 1: Zebi Matt Hes is pitching from Minnesota. He's been kind
20:49
Speaker 1: of on and off of the disabled list. I thought
20:52
Speaker 1: he might have been in the miners again. He's been
20:54
Speaker 1: all over the place. Man. He shows glimpses of being
20:57
Speaker 1: a really good pitcher, and then sometimes he is very,
21:00
Speaker 1: very very bad. Four point nine to seventy r in
21:02
Speaker 1: the season, one point three to four whip not great numbers.
21:06
Speaker 1: He hasn't way better at home though, the one point
21:08
Speaker 1: eight e RRA at home. Pitched well in July so
21:12
Speaker 1: far in two starts, thirteen to one strike a walk
21:14
Speaker 1: ratio four point five e RRA out that good. He
21:17
Speaker 1: gave up a bunch of runs, of course field, but
21:20
Speaker 1: maybe give him a pass for that because of the
21:21
Speaker 1: venue that that took place in Minnesota. Has actually won
21:25
Speaker 1: four of his last five starts, although it kind of
21:27
Speaker 1: goes it goes all the way back into May because
21:29
Speaker 1: he hasn't made that many starts because he's been on
21:32
Speaker 1: and off of the roster so much. And of course
21:34
Speaker 1: I can never type this right when I want to
21:36
Speaker 1: go see his batter versus pitching stats because the fucking
21:40
Speaker 1: people at ESPN won't give you that tab permanently. Fucking
21:45
Speaker 1: ESPN Matthews against the Red Sox actually has good numbers.
21:48
Speaker 1: It's a very small twelve at bat sample size though,
21:51
Speaker 1: four strikeouts, no walks, only one hit, which is a
21:54
Speaker 1: double by Rafaela. He sell him to an eighty three
21:57
Speaker 1: average and two point fifty ops. These good numbers against
22:01
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, and they're not too familiar with them,
22:03
Speaker 1: so it actually looks like this could be an early
22:06
Speaker 1: under in this game. Man. The total has gone up
22:08
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to eight juice to the over,
22:11
Speaker 1: now eighty percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash
22:13
Speaker 1: on the over. Full game is getting some action on
22:15
Speaker 1: the over. But I'm wondering if first five inning under
22:19
Speaker 1: might make some sense in this game, man, because I
22:21
Speaker 1: actually think both starting pitchers could potentially do well. Neither
22:25
Speaker 1: offense I don't think is really that intimidating. I mean,
22:27
Speaker 1: Red Sox are a lot better offensively at home. Generally
22:30
Speaker 1: the offense is good, but it's better at home. Minnesota
22:33
Speaker 1: isn't that good. Both pitchers look like they have a
22:35
Speaker 1: nice match up here. I don't trust Minnesota's bullpen slightly
22:39
Speaker 1: in to the Red Sox as well, just because I
22:41
Speaker 1: think they have the bullpen edge once it gets into
22:43
Speaker 1: the later innings and probably at this point Bail, I mean,
22:46
Speaker 1: we have more numbers to work, but he's probably a
22:48
Speaker 1: little bit more trustworthy as well. And the Red Sox
22:51
Speaker 1: still have the better offense, so I think the Red
22:52
Speaker 1: Sox are probably the lean as well. But that and
22:56
Speaker 1: under first five innings would be my opinions on that game.
23:00
Speaker 1: Twenty takes ninety four percent of the cash on the
23:02
Speaker 1: Red Sox. I mean, take all my opinions, I guess
23:05
Speaker 1: with a little bit of a grain of salt. Try
23:06
Speaker 1: to gauge, like how strong my opinion is just based
23:10
Speaker 1: on a forcefully. I had to talk about it, man,
23:12
Speaker 1: because when it's not one of my actual plays, you know,
23:14
Speaker 1: it's not as strong as my plays at least Braves
23:18
Speaker 1: at Royals. This game, I mean, I don't know what
23:21
Speaker 1: we're gonna get out of this game. And this basically
23:23
Speaker 1: looks like both teams essentially are going almost with a
23:26
Speaker 1: bullpen game here. Kansas City won yesterday to even up
23:29
Speaker 1: this series. I've actually been scoring a bit more recently
23:32
Speaker 1: and playing better recently, even though their offense absolutely stinks.
23:37
Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen usage here we got, Kansas
23:40
Speaker 1: City has used a lot of their bullpen recently. Man,
23:43
Speaker 1: they used a lot of their guys yesterday too. We've
23:44
Speaker 1: seen a lot of heavy usage from Kansas City's bullpen,
23:47
Speaker 1: which is probably not a good sign for them. Atlanta
23:50
Speaker 1: used three of their relief pitches yesterday. So even though
23:53
Speaker 1: Kansas City does have the better bullpen, I would say
23:56
Speaker 1: Atlanta might have a slight bullpen edg year just because
23:59
Speaker 1: of the bullpen edge. The bullpen rest edge I think
24:02
Speaker 1: is in their favorite Zach, what's up Man? Yeah, the
24:04
Speaker 1: Royals here, I don't know if it's looking that good
24:07
Speaker 1: for the Royals in this game. And this starting pitching
24:09
Speaker 1: matchup again is really almost not even a starting pitching matchup.
24:14
Speaker 1: Joey Wentz is pitching for the Braves. Not good numbers
24:17
Speaker 1: five point seven six ERA, one point five to seven,
24:20
Speaker 1: whip better on the road four point six to two
24:23
Speaker 1: we RA and at least this is a more pitcher
24:24
Speaker 1: friendly park here. But he's been all over the place. Man.
24:27
Speaker 1: He was on Pittsburgh, Minnesota, now he's on Atlanta, And
24:31
Speaker 1: since he's been on Atlanta still hasn't exactly been that great.
24:35
Speaker 1: He did have two appearances where he didn't allow any runs.
24:38
Speaker 1: Last time out, he llowed three runs of four and
24:40
Speaker 1: a third against a bad Texas lineup. He did strike
24:44
Speaker 1: out six, so he has a good strike a walk
24:46
Speaker 1: ratio with the Braves fourteen to three, but he gave
24:49
Speaker 1: up a bunch of runs. So I seriously don't know
24:51
Speaker 1: what Wentz even is right now. I don't know if
24:54
Speaker 1: they're gonna try to get him five innings now, because
24:56
Speaker 1: they do seem to be ramping him up, so maybe
24:57
Speaker 1: he will get almost a starter's wor here. But you
25:00
Speaker 1: got to think this bullpen is going to be coming
25:02
Speaker 1: into this game right around the middle of the game
25:05
Speaker 1: Wentz against the Royals. His numbers are only okay against
25:08
Speaker 1: this bad line up. Forty five at bats, two sixty
25:12
Speaker 1: seven average allowed, seven to seventy nine ops is a
25:14
Speaker 1: bit high. We got homers from Greed, Shock and Perez,
25:20
Speaker 1: because of course it's almost always Perez. He's still hitting
25:23
Speaker 1: well right now too, even though I think he's ridiculously old.
25:26
Speaker 1: Five to three strike a walker ratio over that span
25:29
Speaker 1: for Wentz not impressive numbers. But on the other side,
25:32
Speaker 1: on hel Zerpa is listed as the starter for the Royals.
25:36
Speaker 1: He's a relief pitcher for them. He's been coming out
25:39
Speaker 1: of the bullpen for them, so he's basically making an
25:41
Speaker 1: opener type of start here. I believe four point one
25:44
Speaker 1: five ERA, one point three six whips, so those numbers
25:47
Speaker 1: are not good either. Worse at home four point eight
25:50
Speaker 1: one ERA, that's not good. Again, he's been pitching in
25:53
Speaker 1: relief man. He's made a lot of appearances this month,
25:55
Speaker 1: and as a five point eight to seventy RA this month,
25:58
Speaker 1: that's not good. A ten to five strike a walk
26:00
Speaker 1: ratio not great either. A lot of strikeouts but wildness there.
26:04
Speaker 1: He's given up runs in each of his last two appearances,
26:07
Speaker 1: also not good. So I don't like Zurpa that much.
26:10
Speaker 1: The Braves have nine at bats against them, and they've
26:13
Speaker 1: hammered and for a five point fifty six batting average
26:16
Speaker 1: one thousand and two sixty seven ops. Not looking good there.
26:21
Speaker 1: So I mean, as crazy as it might sound, I mean,
26:24
Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking the over makes sense in this
26:28
Speaker 1: game with all the bullpen usage that's happened. Not really
26:31
Speaker 1: trusting either bullpen. The line is flipped from nine and
26:34
Speaker 1: a half juice to the over, to juice to the under.
26:35
Speaker 1: But we see seventy one percent of tickets seventy two
26:38
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. I think you're
26:39
Speaker 1: gonna see both bullpens in this game really early on,
26:43
Speaker 1: especially on kids the City side. It's basically gonna be
26:45
Speaker 1: a bullpend game, which does mean they probably have one
26:48
Speaker 1: like long relief man that's gonna come in and pitch
26:51
Speaker 1: multiple innings. But even so, I don't trust it. I
26:53
Speaker 1: don't trust any of that, So I think I would
26:55
Speaker 1: lean to the over. And the money looks like it
26:58
Speaker 1: is coming in on k C, which I can't really
27:00
Speaker 1: read that the side in this game at all. I mean,
27:04
Speaker 1: I just don't There's no way I would want to
27:06
Speaker 1: either side here. Kansas City down for minus one thirty
27:08
Speaker 1: you minus one twenty five, fifty five percent of tickets,
27:11
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the cash coming in Kansas City.
27:13
Speaker 1: The one surprising thing about that, I guess is that
27:15
Speaker 1: the professional money almost always comes in on Atlanta recently
27:19
Speaker 1: because it's always well their their talent level is better
27:22
Speaker 1: than the record makes it look, but not in this game.
27:26
Speaker 1: So maybe that is an indicator of something with Kansas
27:28
Speaker 1: City there getting the cash. Yeah, your offense is elite.
27:33
Speaker 1: Now I would definitely not go that far, but they
27:36
Speaker 1: are in decent form right now, but I think the
27:39
Speaker 1: over is probably the better way to look. I'll skip
27:41
Speaker 1: Cubs Milwaukee, which, by the way, it's a great pitching
27:44
Speaker 1: matchup there by the way, but I might be doing
27:47
Speaker 1: something that you don't expect in that game. So Philadelphia
27:50
Speaker 1: at the White Sox. I believe they split the first
27:53
Speaker 1: two games of this series as well. This Neither of
27:57
Speaker 1: these bullpens are very good at all. White Sox didn't
28:00
Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpen though, the onlys two
28:02
Speaker 1: relief men yesterday, so they're bullpen usage has been fairly light.
28:06
Speaker 1: Philadelphia doesn't have a great bullpen either. They've had really
28:10
Speaker 1: light bullpen usage. Philadelphia's bullpen might be the most rested
28:13
Speaker 1: and all of Major League Baseball today, only using three
28:17
Speaker 1: relievers over the last two days, five over the last
28:21
Speaker 1: three so or actually six I guess my apologies and yeah,
28:27
Speaker 1: and four over the last two days. But still very
28:30
Speaker 1: very light bullpen usage for Philadelphia here, which is probably
28:34
Speaker 1: necessary because they got Taiwan Walker pitching, and I don't
28:37
Speaker 1: think he's gonna go that deep into this game. He's
28:39
Speaker 1: not very good. He has mostly served as kind of
28:43
Speaker 1: an opener. But it looks like they are trying to
28:45
Speaker 1: let him go starters workload now, but we'll see man
28:49
Speaker 1: three point eight four e r a one point three
28:51
Speaker 1: to five whip. That whip is not very good, better
28:54
Speaker 1: on the road two point six seventy r in the road.
28:57
Speaker 1: He did go five to two thirds innings against the
28:59
Speaker 1: Yankees last time out, which was not a terrible outing.
29:02
Speaker 1: He did give up three bombs, but they were all
29:05
Speaker 1: solo bombs, so we only give up three on runs,
29:07
Speaker 1: three strikeouts, no walks. He was respectable in that game,
29:11
Speaker 1: and it seems like they're trying to let him yeat,
29:13
Speaker 1: like get his workload up and go deeper into games.
29:16
Speaker 1: So we'll see if he's able to do that again.
29:19
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not entirely trustworthy of him. There.
29:23
Speaker 1: Eleven to four strike out walk ratio on three point
29:25
Speaker 1: eight six ERA this month not horrible, but he's a
29:28
Speaker 1: lot of five home runs over the last two outings,
29:30
Speaker 1: so that's not a good sign, even though Philly did
29:32
Speaker 1: win both of them. He is facing a very bad
29:35
Speaker 1: White Sox lineup here, and he has done well against
29:37
Speaker 1: him in twenty seven at bats one to eleven batting average,
29:40
Speaker 1: three ninety eight ohps. Although the six to five strike
29:43
Speaker 1: out walk ratio is not good, but maybe he will
29:46
Speaker 1: do well here because this is a very bad lineup
29:50
Speaker 1: that has not done well against him in the past.
29:52
Speaker 1: Adrian Howser is pitching for the White Sox. He's actually
29:55
Speaker 1: been their best starter, though he has faced a lot
29:58
Speaker 1: of weak lineups for the most part, which the Philadelphia
30:02
Speaker 1: Phillies lineup is not a weak lineup. Two point one ERA,
30:05
Speaker 1: one point two two WHIP on the season, one point
30:08
Speaker 1: three eighty RA at home very good. Houser mostly has
30:13
Speaker 1: been good, and the White Sox have won a bunch
30:15
Speaker 1: of games for him, and they've won six starts in
30:17
Speaker 1: a row for him this month. Is a sixteen to
30:20
Speaker 1: eight strikeout walk ratio THO, which is not that good.
30:22
Speaker 1: He's walked multiple guys in three of the four outings.
30:25
Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. Two point four to two
30:27
Speaker 1: ERA is really good, but he started to slip the
30:30
Speaker 1: last couple of games. He didn't make it five innings
30:32
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, which is not a good sign. Did okay
30:35
Speaker 1: against the Cubs, but walked three guys. So that is
30:38
Speaker 1: a very formidable Cubs lineup, So maybe you give him
30:41
Speaker 1: a little bit of a pass for that, But it
30:42
Speaker 1: looks like he is starting to kind of falter a
30:45
Speaker 1: little bit here. Not Bailey falter, He's starting to houser
30:48
Speaker 1: a little bit against Philly. He does have okay numbers
30:51
Speaker 1: in ninety five at bats a huge sample size two
30:54
Speaker 1: forty two average, seven to twenty five ops allowed, so
30:58
Speaker 1: not horrible numbers for Howser there. I mean this is
31:01
Speaker 1: an interesting one, man, because I think it is quite
31:04
Speaker 1: possible that Philadelphia is the first team to have to
31:06
Speaker 1: go to their bullpen here, and their bullpen is not
31:09
Speaker 1: very good. So it looks like the money's coming in
31:13
Speaker 1: on the White Sox. Man, It's a very short line.
31:15
Speaker 1: I mean, it looks so easy to play Philly with
31:18
Speaker 1: a short number like this down for minus one thirty
31:20
Speaker 1: five to minus one thirty fifty seven percent of tickets
31:22
Speaker 1: on them, fifty one percent of the cash though, comeing
31:25
Speaker 1: in on the White Sox. I won't disagree with it.
31:27
Speaker 1: I mean slightly into the White Sox. I would say
31:29
Speaker 1: maybe first five innings White Sox, although you probably are
31:32
Speaker 1: gonna not get quite as good a price on that.
31:35
Speaker 1: But I think the starting pitching match is where they
31:37
Speaker 1: have the biggest edge because Philly has the better offense.
31:40
Speaker 1: I don't like either bullpen, although maybe both bullpens are
31:44
Speaker 1: bad enough that it kind of evens out, So either
31:47
Speaker 1: full game or first five inning White Sox money line
31:50
Speaker 1: I guess kind of makes sense in that one. And
31:52
Speaker 1: it looks like there has been some market indication on
31:55
Speaker 1: the under with nine juice to the over now just
31:58
Speaker 1: a straight nine seventy six percent of the tickets on
32:01
Speaker 1: the over, only sixty percent of the cash on the over,
32:04
Speaker 1: so some money coming in on the under, which at
32:07
Speaker 1: least the bullpens are fairly rested for that. But I
32:10
Speaker 1: wouldn't trust an under in a game like that where
32:12
Speaker 1: I really don't trust Walker Houser might not be as
32:15
Speaker 1: good as he looks, and I don't trust the bullpens,
32:17
Speaker 1: so I can't do that. Washington at Houston, Houston finally
32:21
Speaker 1: broke their last streak man. They ended their lost streak
32:24
Speaker 1: at five. They won against Washington yesterday, which, uh, you know,
32:30
Speaker 1: maybe that'll start some new momentum for Houston there and
32:32
Speaker 1: Houston actually scored for once too. Houston. Remember they have
32:36
Speaker 1: a couple of key players in there out of their
32:39
Speaker 1: lineup right now due to injury, so Houston's offense has
32:41
Speaker 1: really been struggling as of late, but they did get
32:43
Speaker 1: it done yesterday. As far as the bullpens, Houston has
32:47
Speaker 1: the way better bullpen in general. Washington one of the
32:49
Speaker 1: worst bullpens in the league. But Houston rest wise not
32:52
Speaker 1: looking that good. They've used a bunch of relievers recently,
32:55
Speaker 1: kind of a lot of pitches thrown, so rest wise
32:58
Speaker 1: not great. Washington did his four relief pitchers yesterday as well,
33:02
Speaker 1: so their bullpen rest scenario is not exactly the best either.
33:06
Speaker 1: So I don't like Washington's bullpen at all. Anyway, I
33:08
Speaker 1: don't like either bullpen here. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Washington.
33:13
Speaker 1: I mean, he is the better of these two starters here.
33:15
Speaker 1: Three point five two ERA, one point two to seven whip.
33:18
Speaker 1: His whip is too high, though, man, he gets wild
33:21
Speaker 1: at times. He's been a little bit better on the
33:22
Speaker 1: road three point three nine roady RA against excuse mean
33:28
Speaker 1: this month five point seven to ninety RA, though in
33:30
Speaker 1: a really bad fifteen to fourteen strikeout walk ratio. He's
33:34
Speaker 1: walking nine guys over the last two starts. Not good
33:39
Speaker 1: against San Diego and Minnesota. I mean, those are two
33:41
Speaker 1: struggling offenses too, pretty bad Zion and only six strikeouts
33:46
Speaker 1: in those two games too, allowed eight runs in two
33:49
Speaker 1: and a third innings against San Diego. He is not
33:51
Speaker 1: in good form right now. And yeah again, overall, fifteen
33:54
Speaker 1: to fourteen strike a walk rasire this month is really bad.
33:57
Speaker 1: And it goes back to the the two Stars to
34:00
Speaker 1: end the prior month too, where he had ten strikeouts
34:03
Speaker 1: at seven walks. That wasn't good either. So Gore is
34:06
Speaker 1: very much out of form right now, and his numbers
34:08
Speaker 1: against Houston are actually not good either. And this is
34:11
Speaker 1: just the guys that Houston does actually have active on
34:14
Speaker 1: the roster right now. Twenty at bats not a huge
34:16
Speaker 1: sample size, but he's a lot of three point fifty
34:18
Speaker 1: average and seven eighty one oh ps. So Gore could
34:22
Speaker 1: do poorly in this game potentially. Man, I don't think
34:24
Speaker 1: it's the best matchup for him. He's certainly not in
34:26
Speaker 1: good form. And for Houston they got Ryan Gusto pitching
34:30
Speaker 1: and he hasn't been good either, uh or he hasn't
34:32
Speaker 1: been good. I should say five point one eighty ra
34:35
Speaker 1: a one point four to eight whip, six point three
34:38
Speaker 1: five e RA at home. That's very bad six point
34:41
Speaker 1: three two era this month eleven to four strike a
34:44
Speaker 1: walk raiser to the strigo walk rasie is not that bad.
34:46
Speaker 1: That era is really bad. He made a couple of
34:49
Speaker 1: short stints I think maybe out of the bullpen one
34:51
Speaker 1: inning each, and then he joined the starting rotation again.
34:54
Speaker 1: He got absolutely hammered by the A's for eight earned
34:57
Speaker 1: runs and three and a third. Very bad signed for Gusto.
35:01
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think you can trust him at all.
35:02
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going deep into this game. You
35:04
Speaker 1: got an overworked bullpen. Knats have never seen him before,
35:08
Speaker 1: but I don't even think that's gonna help them that
35:09
Speaker 1: much or help him that much. Man, Usually when a
35:12
Speaker 1: pitcher hasn't been seen before, if they're actually good, the
35:15
Speaker 1: hitters could struggle to figure him out. But I don't
35:17
Speaker 1: think there's any struggling against Gusto really, so I think
35:21
Speaker 1: it over makes sense in this game. Actually, man, I
35:23
Speaker 1: don't think you can trust either starter or either bullpen
35:26
Speaker 1: based on everything I just said. And the total is
35:28
Speaker 1: actually really low in this one, so the oddsmakers are
35:32
Speaker 1: basically telling you the opposite. And yes, I know, Houston,
35:36
Speaker 1: their offense has been really bad. Recently. I know, both
35:38
Speaker 1: offenses kind of questionable here, but that's the way that
35:41
Speaker 1: I look at this game. The money is completely disagreeing
35:44
Speaker 1: with me. Totals up from seven and a half to
35:46
Speaker 1: eight here basically, but seventy percent of the tickets on
35:48
Speaker 1: the over fifty three percent of the catch on the under.
35:51
Speaker 1: So the market reid is completely disagreeing with me on that.
35:54
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, that's just the way that it is.
35:56
Speaker 1: I don't agree with what the market is doing there.
36:00
Speaker 1: Doun for minus one twenty to minus one to fifteen,
36:02
Speaker 1: but they have seventy five percent to ticket seventy seven
36:04
Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Still, to me, that isn't a
36:07
Speaker 1: high enough cash percent of to scrap and see to
36:09
Speaker 1: really think, Oh, well, that means Houston is you know,
36:12
Speaker 1: actually getting like the money now or whatever, like the
36:15
Speaker 1: actual professional money. I think Houston is kind of a
36:18
Speaker 1: public fade still, but they are in the better spot
36:20
Speaker 1: as far as they just broke a lost streak whereas
36:23
Speaker 1: they Washington lost their win streak. So Houston at least
36:27
Speaker 1: is in the better situational spot. But I still think
36:30
Speaker 1: over is the way to look at that game. Pittsburgh,
36:32
Speaker 1: San Francisco is gonna be the other play I'm gonna
36:34
Speaker 1: give out at the end of the show. Mets at Padres.
36:40
Speaker 1: This has been an interesting series, man, and we have
36:42
Speaker 1: two decent teams here. The Mets only us two relief
36:44
Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, so they're bullpen is in decent shape here,
36:47
Speaker 1: and they're an okay bullpen. San Diego generally has the
36:50
Speaker 1: better bullpend, but they used five relief pitchers yesterday, so
36:54
Speaker 1: San Diego their normal bullpen advantage might be a little
36:58
Speaker 1: bit less so because they've used a lot of their bullpen.
37:01
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes is pitching for the Mets here. The Mets
37:03
Speaker 1: too have the better offense. That's also something to keep
37:06
Speaker 1: in mind here. Of course, Clay Holmes decent season for him,
37:10
Speaker 1: three point four ERA, one point two eight whip. That
37:13
Speaker 1: whip is still higher than I would like to see it, though.
37:15
Speaker 1: I still don't really trust Clay Holmes, although I know
37:17
Speaker 1: I went with an under in his last game and
37:19
Speaker 1: I think it hit if I remember correctly, did it?
37:22
Speaker 1: Maybe I know? I think it lost actually in like
37:24
Speaker 1: the last inning. Maybe I don't know. I forget. He's
37:27
Speaker 1: been good on the road. Three point three to two
37:29
Speaker 1: R on the road, I'm not very significant home road
37:32
Speaker 1: splits though, but this month he's been struggling. Four point
37:36
Speaker 1: nine one ERA thirteen to nine strike out walk ratio.
37:39
Speaker 1: That's not good. He's allowed I mean, he hasn't gone
37:43
Speaker 1: that deep in any of these outings. He's gone five
37:45
Speaker 1: and a third or less in all of them. He's
37:47
Speaker 1: allowed four or more on runs and two of the
37:49
Speaker 1: five starts. That's not a great sign either. So right now,
37:52
Speaker 1: his strikeout rate is low, his walk rate's a little
37:55
Speaker 1: bit high. He's just not really in the in the
37:57
Speaker 1: best form right now. Man Clay Holmes and I did
38:00
Speaker 1: expect some regression out of him, so maybe we're kind
38:02
Speaker 1: of seeing that right now. His numbers against the Padres
38:05
Speaker 1: the fathers are not that good either, and they might
38:07
Speaker 1: become his daddy, or maybe they are. It's a small
38:10
Speaker 1: twenty at bat sample size, but six to four strike
38:13
Speaker 1: a walk race is not good. Three hundred batting average
38:15
Speaker 1: allowed in eight sixty seven ops also not good. Padres
38:19
Speaker 1: are able to hit homes fairly well, but I don't
38:22
Speaker 1: know how you could trust you. Darvish, who was starting
38:25
Speaker 1: for San Diego here. He's coming back from missing a
38:28
Speaker 1: lot of time with injuries, and he's old now, thirty eight.
38:31
Speaker 1: He's trying to make his comeback here and it has
38:34
Speaker 1: not gone well so far. Although I still think that
38:37
Speaker 1: at some point he's gonna be better, I mean, at
38:39
Speaker 1: least better than this. I think at some point he's
38:41
Speaker 1: gonna be back to maybe not like what he once was,
38:45
Speaker 1: but at least back to something, you know, resembling what
38:47
Speaker 1: he once was. But right now that is not the case.
38:50
Speaker 1: Nine point one eighty irra and one point eight whip.
38:52
Speaker 1: I don't see how you can put your money on
38:54
Speaker 1: this guy right now. He's actually been better at home,
38:57
Speaker 1: with a six point four to eighty ran home, which
39:00
Speaker 1: I mean, it does make sense. It's a pitcher friendly
39:02
Speaker 1: ballpark in San Diego gets the Mets. Overall, his numbers
39:06
Speaker 1: are not that bad and one hundred and nine at
39:07
Speaker 1: bats twenty seven to nine strike a walk ratio two
39:10
Speaker 1: forty eight average is pretty low. That's pretty good for him.
39:14
Speaker 1: Seven forty eight ohps not that high either. But it's
39:18
Speaker 1: just you, Darvish's current form is just awful, man. I mean,
39:21
Speaker 1: look at what he's done recently is just awful. He
39:23
Speaker 1: hasn't been good. He's only been in the Major since
39:27
Speaker 1: July seventh this season, so he's trying to make his
39:30
Speaker 1: comeback and it's gone very poorly. Eleven to nine, strike
39:33
Speaker 1: a walk, razio really bad, multiple runs allowed in every outing.
39:37
Speaker 1: He's only made it to the five inning mark once
39:40
Speaker 1: against a bad Washington line. Have been only had one
39:42
Speaker 1: strikeout in that game. So it's not going well for Darvish.
39:45
Speaker 1: But again, he might kind of get his stuff back
39:48
Speaker 1: because Darvish isn't really a guy that relies on like
39:50
Speaker 1: massive velocity or anything like that. He's more of a
39:53
Speaker 1: guy that relies on having a ton of different pitches
39:55
Speaker 1: and trying to fool him. So we will see him,
39:58
Speaker 1: man in this what the market is doing? Uh, what
40:02
Speaker 1: is the market doing? I think it actually is indicating
40:04
Speaker 1: towards the Podres. Yeah, Padre is a flip from plus
40:08
Speaker 1: one oh nine to minus one oh five. Fifty tickets
40:10
Speaker 1: are on the Mets. The public likes the Mets. I mean,
40:13
Speaker 1: the Mets have the better offense, so it makes sense
40:15
Speaker 1: the public likes them, and they like homes over Darvish
40:18
Speaker 1: probably too. Fifty nine percent of the cash so coming
40:20
Speaker 1: in on San Diego. Now, I don't know, man, because
40:25
Speaker 1: even if this game gets to the bullpens. I think
40:27
Speaker 1: the bullpens are a little bit of a wash because
40:29
Speaker 1: the Mets have the better rest scenario of the bullpens.
40:31
Speaker 1: So I don't know if I love any of that,
40:33
Speaker 1: And the money's actually coming in in the under too,
40:36
Speaker 1: now eight and a half juice to the under. Sixty
40:39
Speaker 1: five percent of tickets on the over, but seventy nine
40:41
Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on the under, So
40:43
Speaker 1: it looks like the money is the market is really
40:46
Speaker 1: showing a lot of respect for you, Darvish here. I
40:49
Speaker 1: don't really understand why. I mean, until we see that
40:51
Speaker 1: he actually is able to pitch again, I don't see
40:54
Speaker 1: how we could do that. So that's not gonna be
40:56
Speaker 1: something I'm gonna do. But that is the market read,
41:00
Speaker 1: and if I don't have a strong feeling on a game,
41:03
Speaker 1: I will have to, like you know, default of leaning
41:05
Speaker 1: with the market. But I don't really know about that one, man,
41:10
Speaker 1: I mean, in that one almost, I mean, I don't
41:13
Speaker 1: even know, because both bullpens are somewhat trustworthy, So I
41:15
Speaker 1: don't even know if I would say an over and
41:16
Speaker 1: that game even makes sense, and over first five innings
41:20
Speaker 1: maybe makes sense in that one, which is ridiculous to
41:22
Speaker 1: think about it. I almost never would give out an
41:24
Speaker 1: over only in the first five innings because I think
41:26
Speaker 1: it just kind of has a domino effecting to the bullpens.
41:29
Speaker 1: But I would slightly be leaning towards overs in that game, maybe,
41:32
Speaker 1: just in general. Colorado at Cleveland, Cleveland gotta win yesterday
41:37
Speaker 1: after losing the first game of the series. Cleveland won
41:39
Speaker 1: ten to four yesterday, So these teams have split the
41:42
Speaker 1: first two games of this series. Both of these offenses
41:45
Speaker 1: are bad. Both of these teams are bad. Cleveland only
41:47
Speaker 1: used two relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpend rest scenario is
41:50
Speaker 1: pretty good. They have the better bullpen over Colorado. Colorado's
41:54
Speaker 1: bullpen's a little bit more overworked right now, although they
41:57
Speaker 1: only use three relief pitchers yesterday. But Colorado they're the
42:00
Speaker 1: worst bullpen anyway. Kyle Freeland is pitcher for Colorado. He's
42:04
Speaker 1: at least not their worst pitcher, and it looks like
42:07
Speaker 1: he's good at trick shot trick golf shots. Here shout
42:12
Speaker 1: out to happy Gilmour. I guess maybe he is able
42:16
Speaker 1: to shoot his golf balls off of you know, towers
42:21
Speaker 1: that fall down onto the golf course. Or whatever. Five
42:24
Speaker 1: point two four era one point five to two whip.
42:26
Speaker 1: I mean that is a terrible whip, and the era
42:29
Speaker 1: obviously not good either. He's been better out like outside
42:32
Speaker 1: of course field though four point six eighty RA on
42:36
Speaker 1: the road this month four point one eighty RA is
42:39
Speaker 1: at least respectable. Fifteen to eight strike a walk race
42:42
Speaker 1: is not great. That's too many walks, pretty low strikeout rate.
42:45
Speaker 1: He's not great, but he's alloted four fewer earned runs
42:48
Speaker 1: in all four starts this month, and Colorado's won three
42:51
Speaker 1: of those four starts, which is really saying something because
42:54
Speaker 1: they're bad offensively. Doesn't have a whole lot of history
42:58
Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Only three their hitters have seen him before
43:01
Speaker 1: twenty six at bats. They have five strikeouts, three walks,
43:04
Speaker 1: two sixty nine average eight oh six ops, so they've
43:07
Speaker 1: hit him okay, although most of it has been Hedges,
43:10
Speaker 1: who's six for fourteen off him with a couple doubles,
43:13
Speaker 1: one of those walks and three of the strikeouts. So
43:17
Speaker 1: I don't know if Freeland is totally trustworthy. He's going
43:19
Speaker 1: up against Colby Allard or Allard, I don't know how
43:22
Speaker 1: he pronounced his name for Cleveland. There two point eight
43:26
Speaker 1: three ERA one point three five whips, so his whip
43:28
Speaker 1: is way too high than those ras good three point
43:31
Speaker 1: seventy r at home, so he's actually worse at home
43:33
Speaker 1: as well, and he's moving in out of the bullpen. Man.
43:36
Speaker 1: He made one start against the Red Sox early in
43:39
Speaker 1: the season. He actually went six innings allowing one run.
43:42
Speaker 1: I believe that was a start, but he didn't strike
43:44
Speaker 1: out anybody, So a very weird start for Allard there,
43:49
Speaker 1: or however the hell you pronounce his name. He had
43:50
Speaker 1: a stretch in the middle of the season where every
43:53
Speaker 1: game that he appeared in in June Cleveland lost, and
43:56
Speaker 1: then all but one game this month Cleveland has lost.
43:59
Speaker 1: That's insane, man. Maybe it's because they're already losing and
44:05
Speaker 1: they just put them in games that they're already losing
44:07
Speaker 1: because they don't trust him. But Cleveland has lost twelve
44:09
Speaker 1: of the last thirteen games that he's appeared, and that's
44:13
Speaker 1: not a good sign. Against Colorado, the only three guys
44:16
Speaker 1: I've ever seen it before ten at bats, so not
44:19
Speaker 1: a big sample size at all. Two hundred batting average allowed,
44:21
Speaker 1: four hundred ops, So don't think Allard or a Lard
44:25
Speaker 1: is trustworthy, and I have no idea how deep he's
44:27
Speaker 1: gonna go in this game. So, I mean it almost
44:31
Speaker 1: seems to me like the edge might go to Colorado
44:34
Speaker 1: slightly with that matchup. I mean, you have to give
44:37
Speaker 1: Cleveland the bullpen edge slightly and the hitting edge slightly
44:41
Speaker 1: because Colorado is just that bad. But Cleveland, I mean again,
44:44
Speaker 1: I've said this throughout the series. I mean, they're priced
44:47
Speaker 1: way too high just because Colorado's so bad. Cleveland is
44:50
Speaker 1: also really bad. They're down for mins. One ninety one
44:53
Speaker 1: seventy eight eighty nine percent to take. It's ninety three
44:55
Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on Cleveland. Yeah, so
44:59
Speaker 1: I mean Cleveland, you could tell their public it looks
45:01
Speaker 1: like the money the money line move is what means
45:04
Speaker 1: more to me in this market read here. So it
45:06
Speaker 1: looks like that's where the money is kind of coming
45:08
Speaker 1: in on Colorado. It's coming in towards the under, kind
45:11
Speaker 1: of more leaning towards how bad these offenses are. I'm
45:13
Speaker 1: not sure I would agree with that though. Seventy five
45:15
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty six percent of
45:17
Speaker 1: the couch on the under. But I just don't trust
45:20
Speaker 1: those pitchers. Man Tampa Bay at the New York Yankees.
45:25
Speaker 1: The Yankees won yesterday. They lost the first game of
45:27
Speaker 1: the series, won yesterday seven to five. Tampa has the
45:30
Speaker 1: better bullpen, so I think you give Tampa the bullpen
45:33
Speaker 1: edge here. Tampa did use a lot of their bullpen yesterday,
45:36
Speaker 1: though they used five relief pitchers yesterday, so maybe the
45:39
Speaker 1: bullpen usage kind of evens out the bullpen as a
45:42
Speaker 1: little bit. Yeah, because the Yankees only used two relievers yesterday,
45:45
Speaker 1: so actually less of a bullpen advantage for Tampa than
45:48
Speaker 1: there would be otherwise. So not off to a great
45:51
Speaker 1: start for me being a Red Sox fan wanting the
45:53
Speaker 1: Yankees to lose. Zach Lttel is on the mound for Tampa.
45:57
Speaker 1: Good numbers on the season, three point seven two ARA
46:00
Speaker 1: point one to one whip, although the advanced analytics guys
46:03
Speaker 1: will tell you he's not as good as those numbers
46:04
Speaker 1: would tell you that he is. He's got a four
46:07
Speaker 1: ERA on the on the road, which isn't as good.
46:11
Speaker 1: This month, he hasn't been as good either, fourteen to
46:13
Speaker 1: four strike a walk ratios alright, more than one hit
46:16
Speaker 1: per inning is not very good, and four point one
46:18
Speaker 1: eighty RA is just mediocre. So I am kind of
46:21
Speaker 1: agreeing with the the analytics guys on this one. I mean, Lattel,
46:25
Speaker 1: he's been around for a while, we kind of know
46:27
Speaker 1: what he is. He's not really this dominant pitcher. He's
46:29
Speaker 1: an okay pitcher. So I kind of agree with the
46:32
Speaker 1: analytics guys on that last time out. He was not
46:34
Speaker 1: good against Cincinnati ten hits allowed, five and runs, two homers,
46:38
Speaker 1: two dingers allowed. Where my dingers at for it today,
46:43
Speaker 1: But it was at Great American Ballpark five and runs
46:46
Speaker 1: out of there, you know, I mean, that's a hitter
46:47
Speaker 1: friendly ballpark, So maybe you give him a little bit
46:50
Speaker 1: of a pass on that one. Against the Yankees. Doesn't
46:53
Speaker 1: have great numbers either though, in sixty six at bats,
46:56
Speaker 1: seventeen to nine strike a walk ratio that's not good.
47:00
Speaker 1: Volpi and Wells both have really hit him well. Volty
47:03
Speaker 1: five for eleven with two of them runs. Uh Wells
47:06
Speaker 1: four for eight with two of them runs and a
47:08
Speaker 1: double Volti also a walk, and then Goldschmid six for
47:11
Speaker 1: twelve of the home run and a walk. So if
47:12
Speaker 1: you want to look for player props hits plus runs
47:15
Speaker 1: plus RBIs those three guys do well against Lttel LTEL
47:19
Speaker 1: overall two seventy three average allowed to the Yankees current
47:22
Speaker 1: roster and nine to twenty one OPS, so that's a
47:26
Speaker 1: pretty high OPS because of all those home runs. So
47:28
Speaker 1: I don't think we could trust Lttel here. Yankees have
47:31
Speaker 1: Will Warren on the mound. Can we trust him either, though?
47:34
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Four point eight two ERA one point
47:37
Speaker 1: four to four whip that's not a good number. A
47:40
Speaker 1: better at home though three point oh two ERA significantly
47:43
Speaker 1: better at home. Hasn't been good recently though. Six point
47:47
Speaker 1: twenty ninety RA twenty one to fifteen strikeout walker each year.
47:50
Speaker 1: This month, that is awful, very very bad. The walk
47:54
Speaker 1: numbers have been terrible actually this month, walking three or
47:57
Speaker 1: more in all but one start, and that goes back
48:00
Speaker 1: to the last start of June as well. Way more
48:02
Speaker 1: than one hit per inning, six home runs allowed this month,
48:06
Speaker 1: not good, not good signs for a Warren. He's not
48:09
Speaker 1: a good form right now, and his numbers very small
48:11
Speaker 1: sample size, but his numbers are pretty bad against Tampa
48:13
Speaker 1: and fourteen of bats one strike out, three walks, four
48:16
Speaker 1: to twenty nine average allowed. Aranda has a home run
48:19
Speaker 1: off him and or Randa one point one seven two
48:26
Speaker 1: ops as well. Doesn't look good for Will Warren either.
48:30
Speaker 1: I still don't trust the Yankees bullpen, even though they
48:32
Speaker 1: are rested. Tampa's bullpen is better, but it's unrested, so
48:36
Speaker 1: I would lean to the over in this game. I
48:38
Speaker 1: don't think we could trust either starter either. It's at
48:40
Speaker 1: the Bronx. It's a hitter friendly ballpark. Although Tampa's probably
48:43
Speaker 1: used to playing in this stadium because they're stadium right now,
48:46
Speaker 1: they're temporary omus Steinbrenner Stadium, which is supposed to be
48:50
Speaker 1: like the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. Maybe that'll help
48:53
Speaker 1: Tampa a little bit. And I don't know as far
48:55
Speaker 1: as they're hitting. The money's coming in on the under,
48:58
Speaker 1: and I really don't see that. A total up from
49:01
Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine, sixty un percent tickets
49:04
Speaker 1: on the over fifty eight percent of the cash on
49:05
Speaker 1: the under, though again I don't agree with that. I
49:08
Speaker 1: would go over in this game. And it looks like
49:10
Speaker 1: Tampa is a public road underdog this time. Sixty five
49:13
Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only fifty five percent of the cash,
49:16
Speaker 1: so the public seems to be a little bit off.
49:17
Speaker 1: The Yankee train doesn't make sense. Usually they're They're almost
49:21
Speaker 1: always on the Yankee train, especially when the Yankees did
49:23
Speaker 1: just win yesterday, and public, I guess is looking at
49:28
Speaker 1: Lattel and wanting him over warned. I mean, that really
49:31
Speaker 1: just doesn't make sense to me, though. Yeah, I can't
49:34
Speaker 1: really figure out why the public would be on Tampa there.
49:37
Speaker 1: A Lattel is not really a guy that draws the
49:39
Speaker 1: public attention really, so I don't get it, but it
49:41
Speaker 1: does look like that's the case. Yankees at minus one
49:44
Speaker 1: twenty six on the money line, is a home favorite there.
49:47
Speaker 1: Dodgers at the Reds. Reds have lost both games this yearies,
49:51
Speaker 1: although they've been pretty close games five to four and
49:54
Speaker 1: five to two. Unfortunately, the five to four was yesterday,
49:57
Speaker 1: so it pushed my underplays. Far as the bullpen's, I
50:01
Speaker 1: don't like the Dodgers' bullpen, as I've been saying for
50:03
Speaker 1: a while. They did use five relief pitchers yesterday, so
50:05
Speaker 1: their bullpen, even though the number of pitches they've thrown
50:08
Speaker 1: is pretty light. I don't know man using five relievers yesterday.
50:12
Speaker 1: Maybe a couple of those guys who were lightly used
50:14
Speaker 1: might be able to come back into today's game. But
50:16
Speaker 1: their bullpen is not very good anyway, so I don't
50:19
Speaker 1: like how it sets up for the Dodgers bullpen here.
50:21
Speaker 1: The Reds bullpen is mediocre. They used four relief pitchers yesterday,
50:25
Speaker 1: so their bullpen a little bit unrested as well. Starting pitching,
50:30
Speaker 1: sho he Otani is getting the start for the Dodgers here.
50:34
Speaker 1: He's been good so far. Since he's pitched, he's only
50:37
Speaker 1: allowed one or in run and it was in his
50:39
Speaker 1: first start in like two years, and since then he
50:41
Speaker 1: hasn't even allowed to run. One point five ERA one
50:45
Speaker 1: whip on the season. Good numbers, obviously, he has a
50:47
Speaker 1: zero ERA on the road so far. It's all small
50:51
Speaker 1: sample size though. He hasn't gone more than three innings yet,
50:53
Speaker 1: although they're slowly ramping them up, so at some point
50:56
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna see him go deeper than three innings.
50:58
Speaker 1: I don't know if it'll be today or though, but
51:00
Speaker 1: he's been good since then. Actually my mistake. He gave
51:04
Speaker 1: up one earned run last time out against Minnesota, my mistake,
51:06
Speaker 1: so he's now allowed to hourn runs. But he's been
51:09
Speaker 1: really good overall. Thirteen to three strike out walk ratio,
51:13
Speaker 1: nine hits, a lout in twelve innings, one point five ERA.
51:16
Speaker 1: As I said, Tourn runs a lot. He is pitching well.
51:19
Speaker 1: He seems like he's already kind of back like in
51:21
Speaker 1: his old form. As far as his pitching against the Reds,
51:24
Speaker 1: he's been good in twenty five at bats fifteen to
51:27
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, ridiculous strikeout rate based on the
51:31
Speaker 1: amount of at bats one twenty average allowed in three
51:34
Speaker 1: forty five ops. Sotani has done well against Cincinnati. The
51:38
Speaker 1: problem is he's still probably not gonna go full starter's
51:40
Speaker 1: workload here, so you're gonna get the Dodgers' bullpen into
51:43
Speaker 1: this game, and that's not great Nick Martinez, especially for Cincinnati,
51:47
Speaker 1: and he's starting to kind of fall off as the
51:50
Speaker 1: season progresses. Four point six to nine ERA, one point
51:53
Speaker 1: two two WHIP, four point sixty RA at homes. He's
51:57
Speaker 1: a little bit better at home this month. Pretty bad
52:00
Speaker 1: numbers six point six seven ERA, seventeen to eight strike
52:03
Speaker 1: a walk ratio. Those are not good numbers. He did
52:05
Speaker 1: get lit up for ten runs in one start, but
52:08
Speaker 1: that was against Miami, so that's not a good sign.
52:10
Speaker 1: Although the Reds of one all of his other starts recently,
52:13
Speaker 1: they've actually won six of his last seven starts, all
52:17
Speaker 1: all the starts except for that Miami one. So maybe
52:21
Speaker 1: he's not as bad as those overall numbers look, because
52:23
Speaker 1: it's all that one horrendous start. But still, I don't
52:26
Speaker 1: know if we could trust Nick Martinez right now man
52:28
Speaker 1: against a good Dodger lineup. But though Martinez has decent
52:31
Speaker 1: numbers against them, and sixty four at bats, it's nine
52:34
Speaker 1: to six strike a walk ratio isn't that good. But
52:36
Speaker 1: two fifty average allowed, six fifty eight ohps pretty good
52:40
Speaker 1: numbers against a very solid Dodgers lineup. So Martinez actually
52:43
Speaker 1: does pitch fairly well there, I mean, with both starting
52:48
Speaker 1: pitchers looking actually maybe even capable in this game. Even
52:52
Speaker 1: though I just said Martinez, I'm worried about his form,
52:54
Speaker 1: but his numbers are pretty good against the Dodgers. I mean,
52:57
Speaker 1: his numbers are getting skewed a little bit with his
52:59
Speaker 1: recent nom I could see an under in the first
53:02
Speaker 1: five innings being a way to look in this game.
53:04
Speaker 1: Total up very high from nine to nine and a half,
53:06
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets on the over, fifty three
53:09
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. I would not
53:10
Speaker 1: want to factor in the bullpens in that one though, Uh,
53:13
Speaker 1: So I would take it first five innings and then
53:14
Speaker 1: you get Otani at least for the majority of those innings,
53:18
Speaker 1: So maybe that would makes sense a first five inning
53:20
Speaker 1: under uh. Dodgers up down for minus one sixty five
53:23
Speaker 1: to minus one sixty fifty nine percent of tickets, seventy
53:26
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, those of the cash
53:28
Speaker 1: looks like it's on the Dodgers. But man, you're paying
53:30
Speaker 1: a price. It seems like you're paying a price for Otani,
53:34
Speaker 1: just for three innings of Otani. It seems that you're
53:37
Speaker 1: paying a price too, like basically just because of the
53:41
Speaker 1: name and because he's good, and because you don't really
53:43
Speaker 1: know how deep he's gonna go into the game we
53:45
Speaker 1: will see him. Man, it seems like too heavy a
53:48
Speaker 1: price to lay on the Dodgers there that. I mean,
53:50
Speaker 1: you're basically always gonna pay attacks on the Dodgers. Even
53:52
Speaker 1: looks like the cash might be coming in on that
53:56
Speaker 1: side there. Miami at Saint Louis Lewis lost yesterday, got
54:02
Speaker 1: shut out five to nothing, so maybe they'll be angry
54:04
Speaker 1: about that and want to bounce back here. Saint Louis
54:07
Speaker 1: bullpen usage has actually been. It was a little bit
54:11
Speaker 1: light until yesterday. They did use four relief pitchers, so
54:14
Speaker 1: it's a little bit less light now though some of
54:16
Speaker 1: their best relievers are still available, including their closer, so
54:20
Speaker 1: they do have some of their better relievers available because
54:22
Speaker 1: they did get shut out yesterdays, didn't really have to
54:25
Speaker 1: bring in their better relievers. They do have probably the
54:28
Speaker 1: better bullpen over Miami. Miami has kind of staggered their
54:32
Speaker 1: bullpen usage pretty well as well, so their bullpen usage
54:34
Speaker 1: isn't that high either, so the bullpens look okay coming
54:37
Speaker 1: into this. Both starters on the surface are not good starters.
54:41
Speaker 1: Cal Quantrill from Miami five point zero five ERA one
54:44
Speaker 1: point three to three whip that's not good, bad on
54:47
Speaker 1: the road, five point seven six ERA on the road
54:49
Speaker 1: that's not good this month though, three point six sixty
54:53
Speaker 1: R and eighteen to two strikeout walk ratio, no walks
54:56
Speaker 1: in his last two outings, and Miami has actually won
55:00
Speaker 1: six of his last seven starts, so suddenly Quandrell is
55:04
Speaker 1: actually pitching a bit better here. Over that span, he's
55:06
Speaker 1: allowed more than touring runs only twice more than three
55:10
Speaker 1: and runs only once. He's still not going that deep
55:12
Speaker 1: into these games. He's only exceeded five innings once against
55:16
Speaker 1: that bad Kansas City lineup. But he is pitching like
55:20
Speaker 1: pretty serviceably right now. At the very least. Numbers are
55:23
Speaker 1: not great against Saint Louis and twenty seven at bats
55:26
Speaker 1: four to four strike at walker race YO two ninety
55:28
Speaker 1: six average allowed is pretty high, but a six eighty
55:31
Speaker 1: three OPS is not high. So they have basically no
55:33
Speaker 1: power numbers against him, no extra base hits. So maybe Quantrell,
55:39
Speaker 1: I mean he's in decent form right now, maybe he
55:40
Speaker 1: will actually do okay against Saint Louis. Here. Miles Mikolas
55:44
Speaker 1: is pitching for Saint Louis, and he's the I think
55:46
Speaker 1: he's the tougher of the starters to figure out right now.
55:49
Speaker 1: Four point nine to four ERA, one point three whip
55:52
Speaker 1: better at home, three point seventy five R and homes.
55:55
Speaker 1: He has the better at home road splits. Here. Quandrell
55:58
Speaker 1: does not michel Us as a fourteen to strike a
56:00
Speaker 1: walk ratio this month, which is pretty good. But he's
56:02
Speaker 1: a lot eight home runs this month and has a
56:04
Speaker 1: five point six six ERA, so all of that is bad,
56:07
Speaker 1: but a bunch of it was that six home run
56:11
Speaker 1: outing against the Cubs, where he just got totally lit
56:14
Speaker 1: up at Wrigley. He got lit up again at Arizona
56:17
Speaker 1: for a bit as well. So his road starts recently
56:20
Speaker 1: have been bad. His home starts have actually been significantly better,
56:23
Speaker 1: so he's been kind of alternating good and bad. But
56:26
Speaker 1: the good starts have all been at home, which is
56:28
Speaker 1: where he is here, and he is facing a weak
56:30
Speaker 1: line up here, so those last two starts are obviously
56:33
Speaker 1: against good lineups on the road. Against Miami, only two
56:37
Speaker 1: of their hitters have ever even seen him before, which
56:39
Speaker 1: is weird because Mikolas has been around for a while
56:43
Speaker 1: nine at baths, so very small sample size three zero
56:46
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio has a lot of home run
56:48
Speaker 1: to Sanchez though three point thirty three average in one
56:50
Speaker 1: thy one to eleven ops. Mikolas still, he at least
56:55
Speaker 1: has kind of an unfamiliarity edge of Miami's offense still
56:58
Speaker 1: isn't that good so to me, I mean, this game
57:01
Speaker 1: almost kind of seems like an under game to me.
57:04
Speaker 1: Both both pens have kind of decent rest situations here.
57:08
Speaker 1: The offenses aren't really that formidable on either side. Both
57:11
Speaker 1: starting pitchers look awful, But when you dig into their numbers.
57:14
Speaker 1: They're actually maybe not quite as bad as that total
57:17
Speaker 1: has gone up a little bit from eight and a
57:18
Speaker 1: half to eight and a half with juice on the over,
57:20
Speaker 1: but seventy six percent of the tickets on the over
57:23
Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash on on the over,
57:25
Speaker 1: so less of the cash on the over. Kind of
57:27
Speaker 1: would lean under in that game. But I don't know
57:29
Speaker 1: if I could really trust either of those pictures enough
57:31
Speaker 1: to make it a play. Jamin, Thanks for coming back, man,
57:35
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the way that I lean in that game.
57:38
Speaker 1: I'm I don't know if I could trust it, though.
57:40
Speaker 1: Texas at Anaheim. Anaheim has won both games in the series,
57:43
Speaker 1: so and I'm continuing to win games that I think
57:47
Speaker 1: maybe they shouldn't even win. Anaheim, They're still not as
57:51
Speaker 1: good as their record would indicate, man, based on their
57:54
Speaker 1: run differential on the season, So I don't like that.
57:57
Speaker 1: I like the Texas is trying to avoid a sweet
57:59
Speaker 1: peer I believe, so Texas should come out motivated here
58:02
Speaker 1: after losing those first two games. Texas definitely has the
58:05
Speaker 1: better bullpen. Anaheim has one of the worst bullpens in
58:08
Speaker 1: all of baseball. Texas is pretty much a top bullpen.
58:11
Speaker 1: Anaheim has seen a decent amount of bullpen usage recently
58:14
Speaker 1: as well, so their bullpen has seen some usage. Texas.
58:18
Speaker 1: It looks bad because of the red here, but that's
58:20
Speaker 1: because Boosh Lee has thrown a lot of pitches a
58:23
Speaker 1: few times, so he's not gonna be available today. But
58:27
Speaker 1: a lot of Texas is better relievers seem like they
58:29
Speaker 1: are available for today's game. So Texas, you give them
58:33
Speaker 1: the bullpen edge. Still, they do have the better bullpen
58:35
Speaker 1: as well, and they have the better starter. With Evaldi pitching.
58:38
Speaker 1: He's having a really good season one point five ERA,
58:41
Speaker 1: point eight eight whip even better on the road somehow,
58:44
Speaker 1: one point two six roadyra this month point three eight
58:49
Speaker 1: ERA completely insane. He's allowed one run the entire month.
58:54
Speaker 1: Texas has won every one of his starts this month,
58:56
Speaker 1: all four twenty six to six strike a walk ratium,
58:59
Speaker 1: and he did one four in his last outing against
59:02
Speaker 1: the Braves, which maybe is a little bit of a
59:05
Speaker 1: bad sign, but he did shut them out still for
59:07
Speaker 1: five innings. He's still pitching well, man just really good
59:11
Speaker 1: numbers overall in the season. He did have a good
59:13
Speaker 1: game against Anaheim this month in this same stadium. He
59:15
Speaker 1: went six innings allowing nowhere in runs, six strikeouts, no walks,
59:20
Speaker 1: five hits allowed. I think just generally he does do
59:23
Speaker 1: okay against Anaheims. That's probably what I'm expecting again. In
59:26
Speaker 1: ninety eight at bats two thirty five average allowed, six
59:29
Speaker 1: twenty eight ops. So even though Anaheim did just see him,
59:31
Speaker 1: he's a veteran man and these teams have seen him
59:34
Speaker 1: a lot. I just think he has good matchup numbers
59:36
Speaker 1: against them. He should probably pitch pretty well again against
59:39
Speaker 1: Anaheim here. Jose Soriano is the tougher pitcher to read
59:43
Speaker 1: here for Anaheim. Three point seven ninety ras pretty good,
59:46
Speaker 1: but a one point four whip is not good. He's
59:49
Speaker 1: been way worse at home as well, with a five
59:51
Speaker 1: point three seven ERA at home. He's pitching better this month,
59:55
Speaker 1: though the three point one eral those walk rate has
59:57
Speaker 1: still have been way too high twenty four to thirteen
1:00:00
Speaker 1: strike at walk raceio, so that's a little bit of
1:00:02
Speaker 1: a bad sign. Although he's only a lot more than
1:00:04
Speaker 1: tour in runs in one of the starts this month,
1:00:06
Speaker 1: so in a way he's pitching better and that he's
1:00:08
Speaker 1: not allowing a lot of runs or a lot of hits,
1:00:10
Speaker 1: but his walk rate is still too high, so you
1:00:14
Speaker 1: gotta worry about that. He does have good numbers against Texas,
1:00:17
Speaker 1: though in fifty five at bats to eighteen batting average,
1:00:20
Speaker 1: a six to fifty five ops eleven to nine strike
1:00:23
Speaker 1: at walk ratio is not good, but the rest of
1:00:25
Speaker 1: his numbers against Texas are good. However, in his last
1:00:28
Speaker 1: outing year, I think that was the game with the Evaldi.
1:00:31
Speaker 1: I think it was the same pitching matchup. That was
1:00:34
Speaker 1: his worst start of this month. He had five walks,
1:00:36
Speaker 1: give up five and runs at four in He's in
1:00:38
Speaker 1: this stadium against Texas. So are we looking at a
1:00:41
Speaker 1: repeat here? I would say I think probably so. I mean,
1:00:46
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna be that much of a blowout,
1:00:48
Speaker 1: but I would still lean to Texas here. And I
1:00:49
Speaker 1: think they have the better starter again obviously, the better bullpen, obviously,
1:00:54
Speaker 1: but Texas has the worst offense. That's the thing. That's
1:00:58
Speaker 1: the thing that you have to worry about about Texas.
1:00:59
Speaker 1: We got worry about this market read here, because Texas
1:01:02
Speaker 1: is eighty four percent of the tickets, only eighty percent
1:01:04
Speaker 1: of the cash, and the money line has dropped from
1:01:06
Speaker 1: minus one thirty two to minus one twenty on Texas,
1:01:09
Speaker 1: so strong market indicators coming in towards Anaheim, which really
1:01:14
Speaker 1: surprises me because again I think Texas has the edge here.
1:01:17
Speaker 1: I think they have a motivational edge two, so I
1:01:20
Speaker 1: would not be looking that way. The under might make sense, though,
1:01:23
Speaker 1: because Soriano at least does have good matchup numbers against
1:01:26
Speaker 1: Texas and their offense isn't good, so maybe that last
1:01:28
Speaker 1: start against was an anomaly. Total sitting at eight with
1:01:31
Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of tickets on the over only fifty
1:01:33
Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the over, so the
1:01:36
Speaker 1: the ticket percentage is way higher on the over than
1:01:39
Speaker 1: the cash is. If you were gonna go under in
1:01:42
Speaker 1: this game, I would limit it to the first five
1:01:43
Speaker 1: innings though, just because I would not want any part
1:01:47
Speaker 1: of Anaheim's bullpen. And then we finished the night off
1:01:50
Speaker 1: with Seattle at the A's here. The A's have a
1:01:53
Speaker 1: terrible bullpend. I mean, I don't know if that has
1:01:55
Speaker 1: to be stated every time, but their bullpen sucks. They
1:01:58
Speaker 1: only use three relief pitchers yesterday, but I don't even
1:02:00
Speaker 1: think it matters. Their bullpen is awful. It's the worst
1:02:02
Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball. Can't be trusting. Seattle obviously has the
1:02:07
Speaker 1: better of the bullpens. Very clean sheet for Seattle here,
1:02:10
Speaker 1: very limited bullpen usage. You know these two relief pitchers yesterday,
1:02:13
Speaker 1: so their bullpen's in good shape. Here, got to give
1:02:16
Speaker 1: Seattle the bullpen edge. Seattle has a good offense on
1:02:19
Speaker 1: the road, so I think they the offenses are very
1:02:22
Speaker 1: comparable at the very least here. And Seattle has Brian
1:02:25
Speaker 1: wu pitching, who is the better of the two starters
1:02:28
Speaker 1: two point nine to one. He are a point nine
1:02:30
Speaker 1: to five whip excellent numbers, but he is a little
1:02:32
Speaker 1: bit worse on the road. Three point three to three
1:02:34
Speaker 1: era on the road, so he's a little bit more hittable.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: Away from those picture friendly environment picture friendly? What was
1:02:43
Speaker 1: the word I was looking for, that picture friendly environment?
1:02:46
Speaker 1: I don't know. I had some plural word in my mind.
1:02:49
Speaker 1: I don't remember what it was. Away from yeah, the
1:02:51
Speaker 1: picture friendly environment. Though, of Seattle, twenty five to seven
1:02:55
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio this month, it's a few too
1:02:57
Speaker 1: many walks, but still good two point eighty four this month.
1:03:00
Speaker 1: Maybe he was a little bit distracted because he was
1:03:02
Speaker 1: pitching in the All Star Game. He's lost all of
1:03:06
Speaker 1: the starts around the All Star Game, where his team
1:03:08
Speaker 1: has lost all of him, but he hasn't done that
1:03:10
Speaker 1: poorly in those outings, so I don't think he's like
1:03:13
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, totally out of form or anything
1:03:15
Speaker 1: like that. Against the A's. He has really good numbers
1:03:18
Speaker 1: in his history. Seventy seven at bats, twenty two to
1:03:21
Speaker 1: four strikeout walk ratio, one thirty average allot in four
1:03:24
Speaker 1: to twenty oh ps. Yes, this is a tough place
1:03:27
Speaker 1: to pitch in, but he has dominated these A's hitters though,
1:03:30
Speaker 1: so I think WU still should do well. In the start.
1:03:33
Speaker 1: He's up against Jeffrey Springs, who's actually been sneakily pretty
1:03:37
Speaker 1: good for the A's. Most of their pitchers aren't very good,
1:03:39
Speaker 1: but he's fairly good. Four point one three ERA, one
1:03:42
Speaker 1: point two WHIP. Those are not horrible numbers, very similar
1:03:47
Speaker 1: home in a way, a little bit worse at home,
1:03:48
Speaker 1: which is understandable in this ballpark. Four point two to
1:03:51
Speaker 1: seventy RA at home this month four point one to
1:03:53
Speaker 1: eight ERA, but twenty to five strike out walk ratio.
1:03:56
Speaker 1: That's fairly good, a lot more than three on runs
1:03:59
Speaker 1: only once against Cleveland, so he is pitching pretty well
1:04:03
Speaker 1: this month and he has good numbers against Seattle in
1:04:05
Speaker 1: fifty three career bats nineteen to five, strike a walk
1:04:08
Speaker 1: ratio one eighty nine, batting average allowed five to twenty
1:04:12
Speaker 1: three oh ps. So I actually I think this is
1:04:14
Speaker 1: a good starting pitching matchup. Man. I apologize for clicking
1:04:17
Speaker 1: on the MMA page or whatever that was this game. Man,
1:04:22
Speaker 1: I think, yes, Seattle has the advantages, so the line
1:04:25
Speaker 1: move on Seattle does make sense. Up for minus one
1:04:27
Speaker 1: twenty eight to minus one forty two, sixty five percent tickets,
1:04:30
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of the cash coming in Seattle. I
1:04:32
Speaker 1: believe the A's won yesterday, right, Yeah, so Seattle won
1:04:36
Speaker 1: the first game in the a's return home spot. The
1:04:38
Speaker 1: a has had a bounce back in their bounce back
1:04:40
Speaker 1: spot last night. Money is coming in on Seattle, but
1:04:44
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit too much of a
1:04:45
Speaker 1: price to pay for Seattle. But I think once it
1:04:47
Speaker 1: gets later into the game, I do think they have
1:04:49
Speaker 1: a significant edge with the bulp ends. My lean in
1:04:53
Speaker 1: this game would be under in the first five innings.
1:04:55
Speaker 1: I mean, we have a total that's actually kind of
1:04:57
Speaker 1: low for an A's home game. It's not even at ten.
1:05:00
Speaker 1: It's at usually see ten or above in this very
1:05:03
Speaker 1: hit or friendly park, but with WU on the mound,
1:05:05
Speaker 1: probably because the Springs as well. It's at nine and
1:05:08
Speaker 1: a half juice to the over, seventy eight percent tickets
1:05:11
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of cash on the over. I could
1:05:14
Speaker 1: definitely see going under verse five though, because both these
1:05:17
Speaker 1: starters have good matchup numbers. I was considering that as
1:05:20
Speaker 1: a play actually, and they both are actually pitching pretty
1:05:24
Speaker 1: well right now in decent form. I just I hesitate
1:05:29
Speaker 1: a little bit because Springs maybe not totally trustworthy, you know,
1:05:34
Speaker 1: wo a little bit worse on the road, and this
1:05:36
Speaker 1: stadium is just really difficult to take an under in
1:05:39
Speaker 1: the stadium, so I hesitate to do it. But that
1:05:42
Speaker 1: would be the way that I lean. That's close to
1:05:43
Speaker 1: being a play for me. Let's go to best bets now, man,
1:05:49
Speaker 1: I got one side here and one total, And you
1:05:52
Speaker 1: might have thought that the total was gonna be in
1:05:54
Speaker 1: the first game that I mentioned the Cubs and Milwaukee,
1:05:56
Speaker 1: but it is not. I'm not gonna go under in
1:05:59
Speaker 1: this game time. I'm actually gonna go with the Milwaukee
1:06:01
Speaker 1: side here in this game. Now it looks like the
1:06:05
Speaker 1: money was agreeing with me early on, but now it
1:06:08
Speaker 1: looks like it's kind of shifted to being on the Cobs,
1:06:09
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna disagree with that. On Milwaukee up for
1:06:12
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen to minus one seventeen. Now you can
1:06:14
Speaker 1: find them at a pretty short price. And I'm actually
1:06:17
Speaker 1: going full game on this because Milwaukee's bullpen has definitely
1:06:20
Speaker 1: turned it completely around as well. We see fifty percent
1:06:22
Speaker 1: of tickets fifty four percent of the cash on the
1:06:24
Speaker 1: Cubs right now, though I did see money coming in
1:06:27
Speaker 1: on Milwaukee earlier. But when we break this game down,
1:06:30
Speaker 1: we start looking at this Milwaukee their bullpen, I mean,
1:06:34
Speaker 1: their bullpen has become one of the better bullpens actually
1:06:36
Speaker 1: in Whip. They're actually now seventh overall and their ERA
1:06:40
Speaker 1: is actually down to three point eighty seven as a
1:06:42
Speaker 1: bullpenny ARA, so that's not even that bad either. Cubs
1:06:46
Speaker 1: have a worse BULLPENNI are and a worse Whip too.
1:06:48
Speaker 1: They're actually twelve than Whips, So Milwaukee actually has the
1:06:50
Speaker 1: better bullpen now. And if you look at their bullpen usage,
1:06:53
Speaker 1: Milwaukee only used one relief pitcher yesterday. It looks like
1:06:56
Speaker 1: they just use Ashby to finish off the rest of
1:06:59
Speaker 1: the game. So their entire bullpen besides him is available,
1:07:02
Speaker 1: so very good bullpen availability for Milwaukee coming into this game.
1:07:07
Speaker 1: Cubs used five relief pitchers. Yesterday said their bullpen is
1:07:12
Speaker 1: the slightly worse of the two, and they're the way
1:07:14
Speaker 1: more used bullpen, So I think we're getting a bullpen
1:07:16
Speaker 1: advantage here with Milwaukee. So I'm kind of starting there
1:07:19
Speaker 1: and thinking, Okay, we have a bullpen advantage with Milwaukee.
1:07:23
Speaker 1: You've got to give the offensive edge to Chicago. Still,
1:07:25
Speaker 1: they do have the better offense, but they're not as
1:07:27
Speaker 1: good on the road. I don't believe in Milwaukee. Yeah,
1:07:30
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's not as good at hitting at home, but Milwaukee
1:07:33
Speaker 1: at least has an offense that can kind of compare
1:07:36
Speaker 1: with the Cubs. If you look at their hitting stats here,
1:07:38
Speaker 1: Cubs are third in baseball and ops. I mean, we
1:07:41
Speaker 1: know they're an elite offense. Milwaukee kind of in the
1:07:44
Speaker 1: middle somewhere where they at their seventeenth but their offensive
1:07:47
Speaker 1: numbers is still not that bad. So I still think
1:07:50
Speaker 1: that's okay. And you know, I focus more on pitching
1:07:52
Speaker 1: than hitting, and let's look at the starting pitching. You're thinking,
1:07:55
Speaker 1: oh Ima Naga gets par all t. I mean this
1:07:57
Speaker 1: is ace versus ace, basically to think, well, this is
1:08:00
Speaker 1: gonna be like it looks like I should be taking
1:08:03
Speaker 1: the under right, I'm not sure, man. I'm ready to
1:08:07
Speaker 1: fade him Monaga in this specific spot, and I'm almost
1:08:11
Speaker 1: never gonna fade him. I know he's good three point
1:08:13
Speaker 1: one two ERA, one point zero four whip. He has
1:08:16
Speaker 1: these weird laps as though, and I know he's been
1:08:18
Speaker 1: better on the road to two point six eighty RA.
1:08:20
Speaker 1: But he is not a good form right now. Man.
1:08:23
Speaker 1: This month, four point one to three ERA is not
1:08:25
Speaker 1: that good. Eighteen to two strike a walk ratio is good,
1:08:28
Speaker 1: but last outing seven runs allowed on three homers twelve
1:08:32
Speaker 1: it's two strikeouts, snow walks three innings against the White
1:08:36
Speaker 1: Sox like one of the worst lineups in baseball. That
1:08:40
Speaker 1: is not a good indicator. Man. That's kind of telling
1:08:42
Speaker 1: me he's not really a good form right now, and
1:08:44
Speaker 1: now he's having to face a better lineup than that.
1:08:47
Speaker 1: Even though yes, he was coming up big starts against
1:08:49
Speaker 1: the Yankees and the Red Sox, so maybe he had
1:08:51
Speaker 1: a letdown spot didn't focus. But I think he's fadable.
1:08:56
Speaker 1: I think, at the very least Freddy Peralta can get
1:08:58
Speaker 1: us to the bullpens or I think Milwaukee is the
1:09:00
Speaker 1: bullpen edge in this game. I think Paralta can at
1:09:02
Speaker 1: least dual Emanaga here because he looks like he's in
1:09:05
Speaker 1: bad form right now, and against the Brewers, he actually
1:09:07
Speaker 1: does not have good numbers. In thirty eight career at
1:09:10
Speaker 1: bats three sixteen batting average allowed, eight sixty ops. So
1:09:13
Speaker 1: the brew crew has actually hit Imanaga pretty well in
1:09:17
Speaker 1: the past, and they're somewhat familiar with him at this point,
1:09:20
Speaker 1: so he doesn't really have that unfamiliarity edge against him anymore.
1:09:23
Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta pitching, I mean overall, I would say Imanaga
1:09:27
Speaker 1: is the better of the two starters, but the numbers
1:09:29
Speaker 1: this year, Peralta actually has the better numbers this year.
1:09:31
Speaker 1: And I like Freddy Peralta a two point eight one
1:09:34
Speaker 1: ERA one point zero nine whip. He has the splits
1:09:37
Speaker 1: in favor of him though. He's really good at home
1:09:39
Speaker 1: one point five to five ERA at home, and he's
1:09:42
Speaker 1: the pitcher that is in the better form right now
1:09:44
Speaker 1: with a thirty three to eight strike out walkery share
1:09:46
Speaker 1: this month. Milwaukee had won seven starts in a row
1:09:50
Speaker 1: for him before they lost his start against Miami and
1:09:52
Speaker 1: it wasn't his fault. He only allowed one run. The
1:09:55
Speaker 1: bullpen completely blew it for him. A two point five
1:09:58
Speaker 1: to one ERA this month, So he's actually the pitcher
1:10:00
Speaker 1: that's been pitching better recently. And then we look up
1:10:04
Speaker 1: the matchup numbers, you know what it's about to happen here.
1:10:06
Speaker 1: He actually does really well against the Cubs. Even though
1:10:09
Speaker 1: they have a ton of at bats against him one
1:10:11
Speaker 1: hundred and forty five at bats, fifty two to eighteen
1:10:14
Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio. He's held them in that big
1:10:17
Speaker 1: of a sample size. You almost never see a batting
1:10:20
Speaker 1: average this low and that big a sample size. He's
1:10:22
Speaker 1: held this strong Cubs lineup to a one sixty six
1:10:25
Speaker 1: average and six ZHO two ohps. He has a lot
1:10:28
Speaker 1: of seven home runs, but it's in a lot of
1:10:30
Speaker 1: at bats. So Freddy peralta really good numbers against the Cubs.
1:10:33
Speaker 1: So I'm ready to say that I think we have
1:10:35
Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge on the side of Milwaukee here
1:10:38
Speaker 1: as well. To me, I think the public might be
1:10:41
Speaker 1: coming in on the Cubs a little bit in this game, man,
1:10:43
Speaker 1: just because they still I think they have that name
1:10:46
Speaker 1: recognition behind them, even though Milwaukee is on a roll
1:10:48
Speaker 1: right now. Milwaukee has won the first two games of
1:10:51
Speaker 1: this series by decent scores in both, but they at
1:10:54
Speaker 1: least that doesn't mean they at least have the momentum
1:10:56
Speaker 1: here as well. So sometimes baseball is a streaky scored
1:11:00
Speaker 1: even though the Cobs, yes, they're gonna show up, focus
1:11:01
Speaker 1: and try to win this game. You know, both teams
1:11:04
Speaker 1: want to win this game, man, Both teams are gonna
1:11:06
Speaker 1: show up here. And I think the setup pitching wise,
1:11:09
Speaker 1: is actually a lot better for Milwaukee across the board
1:11:12
Speaker 1: there for all those reasons. So Milwaukee is the play
1:11:15
Speaker 1: there stacks. What's up? Man, and then we'll finish it off.
1:11:18
Speaker 1: I told you it was gonna be a total, you
1:11:19
Speaker 1: know me, More often than not, it's gonna be an under.
1:11:22
Speaker 1: And it is in Pittsburgh San Francisco and this game.
1:11:26
Speaker 1: First of all, at least we got some pretty weak
1:11:28
Speaker 1: lineups here, all right. We got the team hitting stats here.
1:11:31
Speaker 1: San Francisco is twenty fourth overall in ops. Where's Pittsburgh got?
1:11:36
Speaker 1: I thought Pittsburgh was worse than that? Are they not?
1:11:39
Speaker 1: What am I doing here as Pittsburgh? Oh yeah, they're
1:11:42
Speaker 1: dead last? What am I saying, I'm like, well, I
1:11:43
Speaker 1: don't know to see Pittsburgh. I'm like, they're definitely one
1:11:45
Speaker 1: of the worst teams. Yeah, so they're dead last in OPS.
1:11:48
Speaker 1: So yeah, we're looking at too bad offenses here. We
1:11:50
Speaker 1: know this, So we're starting out looking like, yeah, this
1:11:53
Speaker 1: might be an underplay here. San Francisco they have a
1:11:56
Speaker 1: really good bullpen right now. They're third. They've been a
1:12:00
Speaker 1: little bit worse recently though, because they've been overused recently,
1:12:03
Speaker 1: but they're still third and whip very close to me
1:12:06
Speaker 1: top and whip. Still they've dropped off a little bit
1:12:09
Speaker 1: e RA wise, but they're still in the top. Like
1:12:11
Speaker 1: a couple of bullpens in the e R. I think
1:12:13
Speaker 1: there's still second actually probably in bullpen e RA behind
1:12:17
Speaker 1: San Diego. So still we're looking at a really good bullpen. Pirates,
1:12:21
Speaker 1: by the way, look at where they are now. Though
1:12:23
Speaker 1: their bullpen e RA is a little bit worse, their
1:12:25
Speaker 1: bullpen whip is fourth in the fourth in the MLB.
1:12:29
Speaker 1: So the Pirates bullpen I've been you know, kind of
1:12:32
Speaker 1: ragging on them quite a bit this year with their
1:12:33
Speaker 1: bullpen has been way better recently. So Pittsburgh's bullpen is
1:12:37
Speaker 1: actually not bad. And then look at the bullpen usage. Yeah,
1:12:41
Speaker 1: like I said, San Francisco has seen too much bullpen usage.
1:12:44
Speaker 1: Yesterday it was a little bit lighter though, with four
1:12:46
Speaker 1: relievers pitching a couple of them through under ten pitches Luke,
1:12:50
Speaker 1: Casey and Beck, so they might actually be available again today.
1:12:53
Speaker 1: So we do have some of their better relievers seem
1:12:55
Speaker 1: like they're kind of available coming into today's game. So Sarah,
1:13:00
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to, you know, not go with the
1:13:03
Speaker 1: under here. And you know me, I don't like to
1:13:05
Speaker 1: go under in the first five innings with a low
1:13:07
Speaker 1: total like this, you have to go under like three
1:13:08
Speaker 1: and a half. I think it's a little bit more dangerous.
1:13:10
Speaker 1: I'd rather actually factor the bullpens in and get you know,
1:13:14
Speaker 1: if we have a good starter here, let's let that
1:13:16
Speaker 1: start or give us a couple more innings maybe and
1:13:18
Speaker 1: then we have to use less of the bullpen. And
1:13:20
Speaker 1: that's what I think might happen here. Man, San Francisco,
1:13:22
Speaker 1: their bullpen is in the worst rest spot out of
1:13:24
Speaker 1: the two, but they have the way better picture. They
1:13:26
Speaker 1: have the grinder on the mound today, Logan web so
1:13:29
Speaker 1: he could get us deep enough into this game that
1:13:31
Speaker 1: San Francisco doesn't even have to use that much of
1:13:33
Speaker 1: their bullpen here Pittsburgh, like I said, they haven't used
1:13:36
Speaker 1: as much of their bullpen. They only use two relief
1:13:38
Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, so a good reprieve for them after using
1:13:42
Speaker 1: five the game before that. But their bullpen kind of
1:13:45
Speaker 1: back and form here where they should be able to
1:13:47
Speaker 1: use some of their better relievers, which is good because
1:13:49
Speaker 1: they might have to go to the bullpen first. With
1:13:51
Speaker 1: Mike Burrows on the mob, but I'm kind of ready
1:13:53
Speaker 1: to trust him to at least do okay in this game.
1:13:57
Speaker 1: A four point one five, one point three to three
1:13:59
Speaker 1: whip not outstanding numbers. He is a rookie, but he's
1:14:01
Speaker 1: shown glimpses of being pretty good. I know he's bad
1:14:05
Speaker 1: on the road five point seven one round the road,
1:14:07
Speaker 1: but this is a picture friendly park here. Man numbers
1:14:11
Speaker 1: this month don't look good four point one five era,
1:14:13
Speaker 1: eighteen to ten strike out walk ratio, but his last
1:14:16
Speaker 1: two starts have actually been better with than eleven to
1:14:19
Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio. He's gone eleven innings. He's
1:14:21
Speaker 1: only allowed two hour runs combined and no home runs
1:14:24
Speaker 1: over that span against the White Sox. Who are you know,
1:14:27
Speaker 1: not a formidable foe, but Arizona one of his best
1:14:30
Speaker 1: starts of the season, shutting Arizona out for six innings,
1:14:33
Speaker 1: and that's a good lineup. So Borrows might start. You know,
1:14:38
Speaker 1: it looks like he might be coming into form a
1:14:39
Speaker 1: little bit and kind of figuring something out. And he
1:14:41
Speaker 1: has shown glimpses. I mean, over the month of June
1:14:44
Speaker 1: he had a thirty to six strike out walk Razio
1:14:46
Speaker 1: the two point seven three era, So he does have
1:14:48
Speaker 1: the capability to do some things here. And he has
1:14:51
Speaker 1: the advantage of San Francisco never having seen him before.
1:14:54
Speaker 1: So Borrow's, you know, a young picture with decent stuff
1:14:57
Speaker 1: against a pretty weak lineup. Was ever seen him before?
1:15:00
Speaker 1: That is an advantage to the pitcher. So I think
1:15:03
Speaker 1: Burrows might have a bit of an advantage here. I
1:15:04
Speaker 1: know it's a little bit risky with Burrows because he
1:15:07
Speaker 1: could potentially blow up in some starts, which has happened
1:15:10
Speaker 1: to me once, I think when I played an under
1:15:12
Speaker 1: with him. But maybe he'll give up a couple of runs.
1:15:15
Speaker 1: Hopefully he can limit it to you know, a few
1:15:17
Speaker 1: runs maybe, and hopefully we get domination from Logan Web,
1:15:20
Speaker 1: who I think is absolutely a trustworthy pitcher here, even
1:15:23
Speaker 1: though I said that in his last outing and he
1:15:25
Speaker 1: didn't pitch well. But I'm ready to go right back
1:15:27
Speaker 1: with web Man three point three eightyr, one point two
1:15:31
Speaker 1: for a whip. I know that whip is a little
1:15:32
Speaker 1: bit high, but he's really good at home two point
1:15:35
Speaker 1: eight eighty r at home. Yes, I know his last
1:15:38
Speaker 1: two starts were not that good. Give up a tanner
1:15:40
Speaker 1: in runs across those two starts. But he pitched in
1:15:42
Speaker 1: the All Star Game, and I think it kind of
1:15:44
Speaker 1: lingered into that Toronto game. The Mets are at least
1:15:47
Speaker 1: a good offense. He at least had a four to
1:15:49
Speaker 1: one strike a walk razio against the Mets, but he
1:15:51
Speaker 1: was too hit able. He got hit hard. So the
1:15:53
Speaker 1: one bad thing is he's given up thirty two hits
1:15:55
Speaker 1: and twenty two innings this month, and he has a
1:15:56
Speaker 1: seven point three six ERA, which I know is bad.
1:16:00
Speaker 1: So it looks like he's in bad form seventeen to
1:16:03
Speaker 1: six strike out walk ratio this month. But again, I
1:16:05
Speaker 1: think the All Star break kind of jarred him a
1:16:08
Speaker 1: little bit, and I think he's to me. I actually
1:16:10
Speaker 1: think web is gonna get back into form here. Man.
1:16:13
Speaker 1: I heard like handicappers, and I said this last game,
1:16:15
Speaker 1: even though I was wrong with him in the last game,
1:16:18
Speaker 1: handicappers are talking about a Web might be worn out.
1:16:21
Speaker 1: Now I'm like, what are you talking about. He's twenty eight,
1:16:23
Speaker 1: so he's not old, and he's thrown over two hundred
1:16:26
Speaker 1: innings in the last couple of seasons, so like he's
1:16:29
Speaker 1: not worn out halfway through the season. I mean, I
1:16:31
Speaker 1: don't think so. So I think Web at some point
1:16:33
Speaker 1: he's gonna come back into form. Maybe it'll happen here
1:16:35
Speaker 1: against this terrible Pirates offense, who, by the way, Web
1:16:39
Speaker 1: pretty much dominates in forty one at bats fourteen to
1:16:42
Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratio one ninety five average, a
1:16:45
Speaker 1: lot of four fifty two ohps. So the matchup numbers
1:16:48
Speaker 1: look really good to me. I like matchups like this, man,
1:16:51
Speaker 1: where you have an unknown, like decent young talent against
1:16:55
Speaker 1: a really good pitcher has really good numbers against the
1:16:58
Speaker 1: opposing lineup. So that's what I'm gonna do here. Under
1:17:00
Speaker 1: is the play. It looks like the seven and a
1:17:02
Speaker 1: half is going away, man, so you might have to
1:17:04
Speaker 1: get it at under seven. I guess I would still
1:17:07
Speaker 1: do it, although it's a little bit more risky. Obviously
1:17:09
Speaker 1: the hook is a little bit better. I would pay
1:17:11
Speaker 1: up to about minus one twenty to get the hook
1:17:13
Speaker 1: on the seven and a half. We have fifty percent
1:17:16
Speaker 1: of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on the under,
1:17:18
Speaker 1: so the money looks like it is agreeing with me
1:17:20
Speaker 1: and coming in on the under. There. So that's the play.
1:17:22
Speaker 1: My plays are in the first two games up, So
1:17:24
Speaker 1: two afternoon plays for me today on the Baseball Slate.
1:17:28
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Thanks everybody for hanging out. Learn
1:17:30
Speaker 1: to toad on Twitter, learned a toad on Instagram. I
1:17:36
Speaker 1: thought I took the screenshare off. I'm multitasking. Then my
1:17:40
Speaker 1: mind just like brain fart, so I have a stroke
1:17:42
Speaker 1: or something. Yeah, learn a tone on Instagram. I put
1:17:44
Speaker 1: out the short betting content there. Better off dead of course,
1:17:47
Speaker 1: b tt R. Find me on YouTube, audio platforms, help
1:17:51
Speaker 1: me out, you know, rate the show, like subscribe all
1:17:54
Speaker 1: those things, you know, boost me up, baby. And then
1:17:57
Speaker 1: I have a ukulele project as well, covered yuke on
1:18:01
Speaker 1: YouTube where I'm putting out everything that I put out
1:18:03
Speaker 1: on Twitter there, and I have a Patreon, Patreon, dot
1:18:06
Speaker 1: com slash learned it's over the bonus content is all
1:18:08
Speaker 1: yuke stuff right now, So you get a Spotify yuke
1:18:11
Speaker 1: feed at one of the levels, and at the highest
1:18:13
Speaker 1: level you get prioritize yuke requests as well. So check
1:18:17
Speaker 1: it out. And that's gonna do it. Man. Let's get
1:18:19
Speaker 1: some wins today. Thanks again, everybody. Let's learn to toad.
1:18:24
Speaker 1: Let's have a good what is it Wednesday? Today? Is
1:18:26
Speaker 1: that what it is? I lose track, man, but have
1:18:28
Speaker 1: a good one everybody. Thanks everybody for hanging out. I
1:18:30
Speaker 1: appreciate all the regulars and the newcomers who seem like
1:18:34
Speaker 1: they're becoming regulars. Thanks everybody. Peace,